HSMSE @ CCNY

APES Final Project:

Coral Reefs

William Esseks
Elijah Van Belle
Alina Siminiouk
6/7/2016

Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents .pg. 1
Position .pg. 2
History .pg. 2 - 4
How did it develop? pg. 2 - 3
How was it discovered? ....pg. 2
What have other parties done to help solve the issue? ....pg. 2 - 3
What are the relevant laws of treaties? . pg.2
Graph describing coral reef predictions ... pg. 3
Causes of the problem .. pg. 4-5
Diagrams explaining coral bleaching process .. pg. 4
Consequences of the problem . pg. 5 - 8
Present .. pg. 5
Future pg. 5-8
Barrier Reef explanatory picture . pg. 6
Proposed Solutions to the problem . pg. 8 - 9
Actions Steps .. pg. 8 - 9
The position of those who oppose you . pg. 9 - 10
Rebuttal to opposing position .... pg. 10
Maps displaying changes of coral reef destruction from 05 - 15 pg. 10
Bibliography ...pg. 11

The anthropogenic destruction of the Earth is manifested in the world wide epidemic of
the extinction of coral reefs. This epidemic alludes to a dismal future for the Earth and the
entirety of its inhabitants, so much so that it even has scientists in tears. Fortunately, not all hope
is lost, there are steps that can still be taken to save coral reefs and avoid a massive extinction,
but the world will never again be the same. In order to stop the mass extinction, an in depth
knowledge of its history, causes, consequences, and proposed solutions are needed.
The problem of the epidemic of coral bleaching was only realized after the discovery and
focus given to massive coral reef bleaching in the aftermath of the mass coral bleaching on the
Pacific coast of Panama following the 1982-83 El Nino event (Glynn 1984). This first massive
bleaching, which was determined to be caused by the warming of the waters in response to El
Nino conditions, led to a plethora of research and speculation about what the future had in store.
With warmer world temperatures, stronger El Nino, and more ocean warming events predicted to
increase, many scientists and people alike began to worry about the future. These fears led to
legislation such as the Coral Reef Task Force (CRTF), conceived to protect and conserve coral
reefs, and the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000, conceived to preserve, sustain, and restore
the condition of coral reef ecosystems (P.L. 106-562; 16 U.S.C. 6401 et seq; December 23,
2000). Unfortunately these people were right to be afraid, and as the the monster that is
anthropogenic destruction has continued its plunder of the Earth, with not much slowing it down,
coral reefs worldwide suffered major depletions. These depletions are caused by warmer waters,
changes in the pH of oceans, and pollution which corrupted the natural processes present in the
reefs. In a rejuvenated effort to try and save the coral reefs of the world in light of new grim
coral reef data, countries around the world have spread awareness and have tried to re-build the
coral reefs, but this process takes many years and isnt approaching the rate at which coral reefs
are disappearing, and many believe that it is too late. This view is supported by the following

graph which represents points at which coral reefs die and estimates as to where we will be. The
most optimistic point on this graph is the global sudden stop to emission in 2016, a goal that we
have missed, expressed in dotted black lines. This goal was prepared at an international meeting
(Kumar Pratyush) concerning the environment, but like most current legislation, wasnt strictly
enforced. The next most realistic point, are the current pledges of countries around the world,
indicated in purple. These current pledges, if reached, which is unlikely because of the state of
global politics, are already to high and would cause a partial if not complete extinction.
The next two pledge points, which are the most realistic are roughly 200 ppm and 450
ppm (parts per million) above the point at which coral reefs start dissolving, meaning that
extinction is highly probable. These points are derived from future scenarios extrapolated from
modern data by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), given the key
assumption that the future world has very rapid economic growth, low population growth and
rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes in this future
scenario are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial
reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal
wealth rather than environmental quality. Even in this optimistic view of the world, the coral
reefs are destined to go extinct by 2050, if not sooner. Now that the history, and the expected
future of coral reefs are known, it is imperative to understand the causes of the anthropogenic
extinction of coral reefs.

Causes of the coral reef bleaching epidemic were avidly sought after its discovery in
Panama, and have been thoroughly answered by scientists throughout the decades. While there
are many theories as to the cause, the leading theory and the one that explains the disaster caused
by the El Nino event of 1982-83, is that excessively warm waters cause the bleaching. However,
this isnt the only way that bleaching can happen. It has also been proven to be caused by
pollution, solar radiation, changing salinity, changing pH, and certain bacteria. These forces
cause bleaching because the polyps, which make up coral reefs, excrete zooxanthellae, with
which they have a symbiotic relationship. Upon excreting the zooxanthellae, the polyps lose
their color and the term bleaching is associated with these new white, unhealthy polyps. The
zooxanthellae play the role of the food supplier in the relationship and upon leaving, deprive the
coral of food, causing them to die. Realizing the apocalyptic consequences that this will render
on the Earth is of utmost importance.

(What is coral bleeching? NOS) The massive bleaching and anthropogenic extinction of coral
reefs will have massive world wide effects, which wont only be constrained to the environment.
Coral reefs are often called the "tropical rainforests of the sea" for their astounding richness of
life, with approximately one quarter of the oceans species depending on them for food and

shelter. These species account for a large portion of the food chain and genetic diversity of the
ocean and if they lose a main resource of food and shelter, there will be massive die off. This die
off will also be perpetuated by the increase in acidity of the ocean which will happen at even
faster rates once the coral reefs stop converting the carbon dioxide into oxygen. This major die
off will not only affect the species that die off, but will also affect the species that depend on
them, causing chaos not only in the oceanic food web, but all food webs of coastal areas as well.
Species will be forced to eat food that they normally wouldnt eat, migratory patterns will be
ruined, and genetic diversity throughout the ocean will decrease significantly. Naturally the
downward spiral will eventually stabilize, however when it does, all that will be left is an
unrecognizable system that is likely to be much more unstable. The loss of corals will also have
major effects on normal ecosystems and humanity. Due to their structural complexity, corals are
one of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, providing important services to mankind
including fisheries, coastal protection, medicines, recreation, and tourism. The fisheries, which
are highly dependent on coral reefs, are currently valued at an annual global economic value of
$375 billion, and provide food and resources for over 500 million people in 94 countries and
territories (Corals NOAA). 85% of these people rely on fish as their main source of protein, and
the loss of coral reefs, which fed and sheltered fish, would devastate these communities.
Alternatively, these peoples will either have to look for other sources of protein, while they wait
years for the aquatic ecosystem to stabilize, or just forgo that portion of their diet, a decision that
would lead to malnutrition. Hunger and starvation rate will also increase across the globe due to
the loss of fisheries. In turn, more hunger and malnutrition will likely lead to political instability
in the regions, which will only make matters worse. The $375 billion dollar loss to the global
economy per year is likely to stress relations, especially because countries will start to blame
each other for the disaster. This political unrest in coastal regions and in international politics

could not be at a worst time, since coastal regions are going to be more susceptible to devastation
from hurricanes or strong winds without the protection of coral reefs, and more specifically
barrier reefs. Barrier reefs unsurprisingly serve as barriers for coastal regions by absorbing 97%
of waves energy (Nuwer). This is further depicted in the chart below:

("Coral Reef Biome." )The fore reef here serves as a boundary between the open ocean and the

island. Any waves that are headed for the island must first pass over these coral reefs, which
considerably decrease their power. Then a second reef needs to be overcome before the waves
get to the island, which is why waves at sea seem much choppier than they are seem to be inside
the ecosystem extent. Without the coral reefs a windy day could be devastating to the islands
coastal region, because the waves will be 97% more powerful. This tremendous increase in
power will lead to drastically increased rates in coastal erosion. Throughout history, coral reefs

have played larger roles in protecting regions from major disasters. While it may not seem like
it, the tsunamis that have devastated many countries and regions over the past millions of years
would have been 97% more powerful without coral reefs. The loss of coral reefs will cause
humanity to have to move inland, bunching up and squeezing in where there is already
overcrowding. On top of the loss of fisheries and the loss of coastal regions due to severe coastal
erosion, the loss of coral reefs will take away medicinal opportunities. Coral reefs have always
been used in research for new treatments for diseases since, given their immense biodiversity, it
is a good place to find cures for diseases around the globe, or chemicals that are beneficial in
fighting one disease or another. Half of medical treatments today have been derived from natural
processes (Medicine NOAA), with a fair amount of those natural processes having occurred in
coral reefs. However, it is estimated that there are millions of species within coral reefs that have
yet to be discovered, which means that subsequently there are still many treatments to be
discovered from coral reefs, which cant be discovered if there arent any more coral reefs to
study. With the loss of coral reefs will also come another financial loss in the form of tourism
and recreation loss. Tourism and recreation concerning coral reefs is estimated to bring in
around $200 million dollars per year to the US economy alone (Tourism and Recreation NOAA).
The money lost isnt going to be the worst part of this loss though, because the main part of the
tourism is the experience that these people get from seeing all these animals acting together in
cooperation and all of these beautiful plants. This beauty and this cooperation allows the people
to realize that the world still has beauty and there's still hope in the world. The psychological
effects of seeing coral reefs are known to be medicinal just by itself. Unfortunately, some of
these effects, namely the massive die offs described in the opening part of this paragraph, have
already manifested and are living their course right now, mainly near and around the Great

Barrier Reef in Australia. The loss of coral reefs will have devastating consequences worldwide,
but can be helped if we as humanity decide to act now.
If we as humanity decide to act in an effort to slow the extinction of coral reefs, we can
make the inevitable extinction of coral reefs easier on nature. We can make this easier for nature
by creating buffer zones, and making the necessary transition from dependence on coral reefs to
dependence on other sustainable resources. This change can either be made by humanity over a
controlled amount of time or can be made by nature over a short amount of time with major
consequences. This is not to say that if humanity does the change there wont be consequences,
because there will be, but the changes can happen over a larger period of time. This wont make
the consequences any easier to deal with and will still devastate most of the world but they will
happen over a longer period of time which will make the consequences a little easier to deal
with. The first step that we have to do is start to find alternate food sources and alternate shelter
for the species that are in coral reefs. It will not be possible to find sustainable food sources and
shelter for all of the species, or even for a majority of them, but the more that we can get away
from dependency on coral reefs, the better. Once the alternate sources have been identified, the
species that will take the longest to change should be coerced to change first. The coercement,
for most of the species, will only work for part of the species, but this will allow the process of
dealing with the extinction to be easier for nature. After the coercement is completed and the
species are away from the coral reefs, buffer zones then need to be created. These buffer zones
will allow the species to have food and some shelter after being forced out, before they migrate
again in an effort to find other shelter. The buffer zones wont last forever because of the change
that will come to the ocean, and this will force the species to leave the buffer zones. After the
buffer zones are destroyed and the species leave there will be devastation, and all of the
aforementioned effects will happen. We can help mitigate the destruction of these consequences

by having international aid at the ready with international cooperation. This will allow resources
to be deployed to the regions that need them the most so that the worst can hopefully be avoided.
Unfortunately, there arent any ways to avoid the consequences of the extinction, or to avoid the
extinction itself because of the anthropogenic destruction that has already been irreparably dealt
to the Earth. However, there are some people who dont believe that reefs will be around
forever, regardless of human action or inaction.
There are some people today who believe that coral reefs arent going extinct from
anthropogenic causes, and therefore dont have to do anything about it. These people are the
reasons that this problem is here in the first place, and are the reasons that millions or even
billions of people will die in the future. These people believe that coral reefs are dying because
of natural consequences and it is just part of natures natural cycle. They argue that 99.99% of
species are already extinct, and coral reefs are following. Such individuals either dont care
enough or dont know enough to understand the ramifications of the evidence presented. These
graphs are demonstrative of the unprecedentedly fast changes that have occurred in coral
bleaching over the last 10 years. The first major event was in 1982, after which nature has
healed itself. That ability to heal is what characterizes something that nature caused. If nature
can rebound from it and eventually benefits from it then it can be interpreted as a natural cause.
This change that has happened is one that nature cant rebound from and will suffer dearly from
for many decades to come. This was not caused by nature, but nature is playing a role in
indicating that it needs help. This bleaching of coral reefs is a clear indicator that the oceans are
getting too warm, and that nature needs help. We as humans need action now or there will be
nothing left to fight for in under 50 years.

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Kumar, Pratyush. "What Effect Will Climate Change Have on Coral Reefs?"Coral Reef, Climate
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