Chapter 2: Probability

INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS

TOTAL PROBABILITY RULE

BAYES THEOREM

2.1 Introduction of Probability

What is Probability?
A measure of the likeliness that an event will occur.
Quantified a number between 0 and 1
Value near 0 - the event is unlikely to happen
Value near 1 - the event is likely to happen

Probability is Just a Guide

Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it is just a guide

Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

Probability says that heads have a chance, so we can expect 50

Heads.

But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or 55 heads ... or

anything really, but in most cases it will be a number near 50.

Some Basic Terms and Concepts

Experiment A process that when performed,
results in one and only one of many observations.
Outcome The observation/ possible result of an
experiment. (1 outcome from 1 trial)
Sample space set of all possible outcomes of a
statistical experiment and presented by the symbol,
S.
Sample points The elements of a sample space.
Event A set of outcomes of an experiment (a
subset of the sample space)

Example:
An experiment is carried out: Toss a coin twice.

Possible Outcomes: 1H & 1T, 2H & 0T, 0H & 2T

Sample space: S = {HT, HH, TT}
Sample points

Possible events: no tail obtained, no head obtained,

at least one tail etc.

Sample space
1.

Venn Diagram: a picture that consists of all possible outcomes for an

experiment

2.

Tree Diagram: each outcome is represented by a branch of tree

Symbols
A event A occurring

P(A) probability of event A occurring

A, A, ~A event A not occuring
P(A) @ P(A) @ P(~A) probaility of event A not occuring

2.2 Definition of Event

Complement Event: an event with subset of all elements of
S that are not in A and is denoted by the symbol A' .
+ = 1
All outcomes that are NOT the event.
Examples:
Intersection Event: intersection of two events A and B
denoted by the symbol A B , is the event containing all
elements that are common to A and B.
( )

2.2 Definition of Event (cont.)

Union of Event-The union of the two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A B , is the event containing all
elements that belong to A or B or both.
= + ( )
Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are mutually
exclusive or disjoint if A B = or , that is, if A and B
have no element in common.
= () +
Mutually Non-Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are
said to be mutually non exclusive events if both the events
A and B have at least one common outcome between them.

Example
If S = {p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y} and A = {q, s, t, v, x}, B = {p, r, v, w, y},

C = {r, u, w, y} and D = {p, t, x}, list the elements of the sets

corresponding to the following events:
(a) AC

(b) AB
(c) C
(d) (AB) D
(e) (B C)

2.3 Concept of Probability

Probability is the likelihood of the occurrence of an
event that is measured by using numerical value.
Equally likely outcomes is two or more outcomes that
have the same probability of occurrence.

Theorem:
If an experiment can result in any one of different equally
likely outcomes and if exactly of these outcomes
correspond to event , then the probability of event is
no. of outcomes included in the event
= =

sample size

Definition
The probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all
sample points in A. Therefore,

0 P(A) 1, and P(S) = 1

For an impossible event, M: P(M) = 0
For a sure event, C: P(C) = 1

Example 2.1:
1) A bag contains 10 red marbles. A marble is drawn randomly
from the bag. Find the probability that the marble drawn is
a) Red
b) Black
2) Ali has a set of eight cards numbered 1 to 8. A card is drawn
randomly from the set of cards. Find the probability that the
number drawn is
a) 8
b) Not 8

3) Roll a dice three times and see whether you obtain no. 6.
Find the probability of each of the following events:
a) You obtain at least one no. 6.
Ans: 91/216
b) You obtain at least two no. 6.
Ans: 2/27
c) You obtain at most two no. 6.
Ans: 215/216

d) You will not obtain no. 6 exactly once.

Ans: 47/72

2.4 Independent and Dependent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the
occurrence of the others.
Two events are dependent if the outcome of the first
affects the outcome of second so that the probability is
changed.

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

The probability of the intersection of two independent
events A and B is
P(A B) = P(A)P(B)

Example:
Independent events: Probability of Tom and Tony score
A in Mathematics are 0.7 and 0.9, respectively. What is
the probability that both of them fail to score A in
Mathematics?
Ans: 0.03
Dependent events: A bag contains 3 white balls and 2
black balls. Tom draws a ball without placing it back to
the bag and followed by drawing the second ball. What
is the probability that the second ball drawn is in white
colour?
Ans: 3/5

2.5 Conditional probability

Probability that an event A will occur given that another
event B has already occurred:

=
,
> 0.
()
Independent Events
The probability of the intersection of two independent
events and is
=

Example 2.2:
1) The probability that an automobile being filled with gasoline
also needs an oil change is 0.25; the probability that it needs
a new oil filter is 0.40; the probability that both the oil and
the filter need changing is 0.14.
a) Are the events that needs an oil change and oil filter
change independent?
b) If the oil has to be changed, what is the probability that a
new oil filter is needed?
c) If the new oil filter is needed, what is the probability that
the oil has to be changed?

2) The probability that the head of household is

home when a telemarketing representative calls
is 0.4. Given that the head of house is home, the
probability that goods will be bought from the
company is 0.3. Find the probability that the
head of the house is home and goods are bought
from the company.

3) The probability of closing the ith relay in the circuit shown

below are
Circuit

P(closure) 0.7

0.6

0.65

0.65

0.97

If all relays function independently, what is the probability

that a current flows between A and B?

2.6 Total Probability Rule

A collection of sets 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , , such that 1
2 3 = is said to be exhaustive.
Assume 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , , are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive sets, then for any event A of S,

=
=1

(| ) .
=1

= 1 1 + 2 2 + +
(| )

Example 2.3:
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, 1 , 2 and 3 ,
make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It
is known from the past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of
the products made by each machine, respectively, are
defective. A finished product is randomly selected. What is
the probability that it is defective?

2.7 Bayes Theorem

If the events 1 , 2 , , constitute a partition
of the sample space S such that ( ) 0 for =
1,2, , , then for any event in such that
P(A) 0 ,
( )
| =
=1
(| )
=
for = 1,2, , .
=1 (| )

How to get the Formula?

From previous, | =
Then,

and =

= = =

If 1 , 2 , , are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and is any

event, then

1 1

+ 2 2 + +

Example 2.4:
1) A manufacturing firm employs 3 analytical plans for the
design and development of a particular product. For
cost reasons, all three are used in varying times. In fact,
plans 1, 2 or 3 are used for 30%, 20% and 50% of the
products, respectively. The defect rate given plan 1, 2
and 3 are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.02, respectively. If a random
product was observed and found to be defective, which
plan was most likely used and thus responsible?

2) A construction company employs two sales engineers.

Engineer 1 does the work of estimating cost for 70% of
jobs bid by the company. Engineer 2 does the work for
30% of jobs bid by the company. It is known that the
error rate for engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the
probability of an error when he does the work,
whereas the probability of an error in the work of
engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose a bid arrives and a serious
error occurs in estimating cost. Which engineer would
you guess did the work? Explain and show all work.

Exercise
It is known from past experience that the probability of
selecting an adult over 60 years of age who are
smokers is 0.35. Of those adults over 60 years of age
who are smokers, 55% of them have heart attack. Of
those adults over 60 years of age who are
nonsmokers, 12% of them have heart attack. What is
the probability of selecting one of these adults with
heart attack is found to be a nonsmoker? What is the
probability of selecting one of these adults without
heart attack is found to be a smoker?