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Lecture 12 Environmental
forecasting

Key drivers or factors of Environmental Change

A. Population Population growth models
B. Standard of living Economic growth models
C. Technology

Environmental Modeling
Science-based process models
Social Science Models

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POPULATION GROWTH MODELS

1. Annual Growth Model: P = Po(1 + r)t
where r = annual growth rate;
Po = initial population at t = 0;

Example 1.
Current city population: 100,000; MSW: 8 x 107 kg (80,000 tons) /year;
Projected population growth rate: 3 %/yr over 15 yrs.
Assume constant waste production per capita. What will be the total additional
waste generated 15 yrs from now?
P = (100,000) (1+0.03)15 = 155,800; Additional people= 55,800
MSW/person = 8 x 107 kg/100,000=800kg/person-yr
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Additional waste = 55,800 x 800 =4.5 x 107 kg/yr

2. Exponential Growth Model

dp
rt
P = Poert
dt
P = (100,000)e(0.03)(15)= 156,800 people

3. Logistic Growth Model

dp
p

rt1
dt
P
max

* Carrying capacity is keep changing

for human population due to
technological innovation such as
modern medicine and fertilizers for
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food production

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Example:
Assuming population at year 2000 is 6 billion (Po)with
an exponential growth rate of 1.5 % (r), estimate
the global population in 2100 using logistic growth
model. The carrying capacity is 20 billion people
(Pmax).
t = 100 yrs
Logistic growth rate:

tm:
p:
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4. Demographic Models
Growth rate= (Birth rate) (Death rate) +(Immigration rate)
Rates (or Crude rate): annual numbers of births, deaths, and
immigration per 1000 people in the overall population
Example: total population of 50 million; crude birth rate of 20
births per year per 1000 people; crude death rate of 9 per 1000;
net immigration rate of 1 per 1000
20 9 + 1 (per 1000 people/year) =12 per 1000 people/yr or 1.2
% annual growth rate .

This model can consider statistical data such as age

structure of population and fertility rates.
However, uncertainty remains in predicting the rates
for long term changes in population
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ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS

Measure of national level economic activity: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Change in GDP per capita Indicator of overall economic growth

Activity coefficients
Specify the amounts of a product or service per person related to
economic activity
E.g. cars per capita, residential housing per capita (m2/person),
number and types of appliances per household

GDP and Energy use

Substantial scatter due to

the differences in the make
of economy of different
country, difference in
energy efficiency, and
other factors.
GDP/capita = $600/person log(E/P)=1.197 E/P= 15.7 GJ/person

Input Output Models (Ch. 7 LCA)

Sectors and sub-sectors
Use of input-output models to capture the interactions between sectors and
sub-sectors
Benefit
Accounts for all indirect and direct impacts of an activity
Providing comprehensive method for Environmental Life Cycle Assessment

Limitations
All parameters reflect only the historical data of a particular year Only good for
short- or near-term prediction

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Macroeconomic model
Interactions among 3 main actors (firms, households, and
government) and 3 economy markets (goods, labor, and
financial) Overall economic changes using the data about
interactions.
E.g. Gross National Product (GNP)
G: GNP (billions of dollars)
K: annual value of all capital goods
(billions of dollars)
L: size of labor force
(millions of workers)
P: annual productivity factor
(overall production efficiency)
*Technology innovation

Can be used to measure the environmental consequences of

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proposed environmental policy measures

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Types of Technology Change
Improvements to a current technology design
Improved energy efficiency or reduction in pollution emission
rate (e.g., improved catalytic converter, engine design for less
hydrocarbons and NOx)

Solution of alternative technology

E.g., gasoline powered car electric vehicle, Coal-powered
power plant Advanced gas powered or wind powered plant

New class of technology

Bicycles Cars Airplanes
Difficult to evaluate future environmental impacts
e.g. extensive urban growth due to automobiles

Change in technology utilization

E.g., Use of automobile will remain the same or less?
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Rates of technology adoption

E.g., the rate of replacing CFC with better refrigeration
system is important to predict atmospheric CFC level
3 factors for technology adoption rate
(1) Price, (2) Useful lifetime of existing tech., and (3) Number of
competing options

Determining tech adoption rate

a. Specified rate of change

18yrsadoption rate of
1/18 (5.6%) for next 18 yrs

Rate= f(Market growth, useful lifetime of existing tech)

Market growth population
& economic growth

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b. Specified Market Share

Competing existing tech.
Logistic model:
P(t): % market share at time t
Pmax : max. market share up to 100%
tm: time required to reach half of pmax
r: composite growth rate
ro: initial growth rate
Example: It will take 15 yrs for EV to gain 50% share of new auto sale once initial
market share reaches 10 %. Initial growth rate of 5% /yr. Time to reach 90 %
market share of the new car market?
Sol. Assume Pmax = 100

Time t to reach 90 % market share P(t) = 90%, tm=15yrs

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c. Consumer Choice Models

Models to select based on consumer preferences (e.g. prices)

Social Science Models

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Final Exam (Total 50 marks)

6/23/2015, Tuesday 9:00AM - 12:00PM
H 407 H411 H415 H435
Cumulative (Chapters 2,3,4,5,7,10,12,14,15)
Theory 60 % (30 marks) and calculations 40 % (20
marks)
Theory
Definitions
Short explanations

Calculations
Class examples and assignment problems

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