Running Head: STATISTICS IN SPORTS

Big Data and Statistical Analysis in Sports

Will Scheib

Magnet English 10
Mrs. Graves
June 4, 2016
What I Already Knew/ What I Wanted to Know

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Statistics is a growing field in the world of business and sports, and as technology
improve it has continued to grow into widespread use in all fields. I have played fantasy football
for 5 years, and this was what originally got me into statistics. I was obsessed with the statistics
of players. YPG, YPC, TD, FML, INT, and many others were all terms I used on a daily basis.
This original endeavor into the field of statistics led me to a profound interest in statistics today.
At the beginning of this year, I decided to do my symposium on statistics in business,
because I felt like statistics in sports was not as ideal of a choice for a school project. For this
main reason, I started off my I-Search process with the topic of big data and statistical analysis in
business. I thought that this would be an interesting topic, and as I started my research and
contacted the person I planned to interview, it was as interesting as I had expected. After a few
weeks of not hearing back from the person I had originally planned to interview, I tried another
person. During this time period, I started to lose interest. I just didnt feel the same drive to
research about my topic anymore. Also, I had seen some sports statistics projects at Symposium
and I knew a few other people writing their I-Search papers on sports, so I decided to change my
topic. I have been researching every chance I get, because now this is fun for me, which it had
not been before. The main question I decided to research was: How are big data and statistical
analysis being used in sports? What is the future of big data and statistical analysis in sports? I
eventually found my answer, and this whole process has just piqued my interest in this topic even
more.

The Story of My Search

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I started my research by trying to read articles with high levels of specificity which dealt
with math that I had not yet experienced. I realized that I had to start by looking into a broad
history of my topic, as well as some general information. I learned that the field of statistics in
sports is still quite small but is growing very rapidly, and this made me want to keep researching
my topic even more.
I first learned about the necessary path of data. Data needs to be collected in bulk by the
devices worn by players on the field. Then it needs to be adjusted for any differences such as
length of practice, etc. Next, it needs to be written up into a document that a general manager or
someone else making decisions can understand. Then, it needs to be taken into account in the
decision. These findings really helped further my understanding of the process that is used to
utilize data in sports decisions.
All of my sources kept compounding on each other and leading me to new research. It
was actually hard to leave my computer once I start writing blog posts!
I started to find documents about predictive models for data in sports and realized that
this was really interesting to me, so I decided to do more research into that topic. As I learned
more about it, I started to wonder whether I could make a predictive model. I think it would be
interesting to try to make a predictive model for my symposium next year. Specifically, I have
been thinking about creating a model to predict what play a football team is going to run. I saw
an example online, and I feel like I can improve it.
I definitely learned a ton from my interview and I definitely still think that I want to do
more research into the modeling part of this topic. On the one hand, I feel like data will help
sports, but I also feel like for a fan and active fantasy sports participant like me, if all of a sudden
free, little effort statistical analysis methods appear all over the internet, it wont be as fun to play

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anymore because everyone will be able to do the same things with the same data. Every player
will have identical value in every cheat sheet and there will be no more genius sleeper picks or
busts. It might take the fun out of fantasy sports. This whole process has definitely sparked my
interest in predictive modeling, however, and I look forward to doing more research in the future.

The Search Results

The problem with the current situation in sports analytics is that many statisticians have
trouble communicating their findings to sports executives in terms that they can understand.
Namely, this means communicating how the math which was done by the statistician could and
should affect their decisions (Veips, 2014). For this reason, many managers shy away from using
the findings of their team statisticians as a decision making aid. This fact made me want to
research into this topic more than I had before, because I realized that I could help the growth of
this field.
Advances in sports science have aided the explosive growth of the Sports Analytics field.
Addition of nutritional regimens and training routines have allowed for the collection of a vast
amount of data which has been unavailable until quite recently (Seifert, 2016). However, despite
the ridiculous growth in data collection, the problem is still making that data meaningful and
putting it in the hands of the decision makers. Data by itself means nothing. Analysis of the data
is required to adjust for various factors and make the data useful (Karr, 2016).
Big data can help cut costs by determining which tasks are unnecessary, as well as act as
an aid to decision makers. Access to big data can also allow for better real time decision making

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which could help retain customers in a business situation or decide whether or not to make a
trade in a sports situation (Davenport, n.d.). Big data is more efficient than past techniques,
trustworthy because of its enormous sample size, accessible because of all of the technology that
we have, authoritative because of the ability to combine different sources of data to create one
large, accurate database, and actionable because once it has been modified it can immediately be
taken into account for decision making. One driving innovation is IBM Slamtracker. It shows
real time winning percentages of tennis players, as well as their popularity on social media
(Steinberg, 2015).
Big data can also help create new programs for customers to create a better in-stadium
experience. For instance, the app iBeacon helps to push upgraded seats and discounts at food
stations, as well as helps them find out bathroom lines and overall creates a better user
experience for the fan at the stadium. Big data also enhances the ability to understand fans and
what they will purchase (Tichy, n.d.).
Big data also allows us to assign values to different players to find out which players are
more valuable to their team based on how good they are compared to a replacement player. One
such measure is WAR. WAR uses a measure of how many runs a player has added or lost for
their team compared with that of a replacement player. It converts runs into wins, with
approximately 10 runs equaling one win. This statistic allows us to compare players in different
positions, which enables managers to see where their biggest needs are on the team. It also
allows us to compare current players to past players (Baseball-Reference.com, n.d.).
There are many mathematicians trying to develop formulas to predict future outcomes in
sports, such as models predicting win/draw/loss totals, models predicting total points scored over

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a season, models predicting what play a football team will run, and many more (Smith, n.d.).
These are especially helpful for the coach. I allows them to have a better idea of what type of
play a team will run based on formation, down, score differential, distance to a first down, and
many other statistics (sort of like a Dichotomous Key).
Big data in sports started with baseball sabermetrics, like in the book and movie
Moneyball. It has actually made most progress in Australian rules football because of how few
restrictions it has on the use of technology. Some applications of big data are using GPS
technology to measure how far/fast a player has run or how much exertion they have expended.
This could possibly be used to pick favorable matchups between wide receivers and cornerbacks.
Another application is using RFID technology to measure contact, normally in pounds of
pressure. These could be helpful for injury prevention (Seifert, 2016).
Some press applications are that it allows reporters to back up their claims/conclusions
with evidence and find hidden stories in data that may not be obvious on the surface. Fans like
seeing conclusions supported by numbers. Also, they can prove or reject myths/assumptions
(Seifert, 2016).

One fantasy sports application is fantasy projections. There is actually an ESPN Stats and
Information Department which deals with analyzing data for fantasy sports. Using numbers to
draft a fantasy team is better than eyeballing players or using gut instinct. There are 2 parts to
fantasy: interviews with players/coaches (who will be a big part of the offense, how many carries
per game, etc.) and data projections (projecting rushing/receiving yards, touchdowns, etc.)
(Seifert, 2016).

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Data should be incorporated the same amount as scouting reports or any other
information, because there is no way to win solely based on statistics. Managers cannot let
statistics make decisions for them. They should use some intuition, some data, to where neither
overrides the other (Seifert, 2016).

The only thing holding statistics/big data back is the concern that it is too much too
quickly and that it could create an unfair advantage so that teams with less talent could
consistently beat teams with more talent. However, in a few years, big data/statistics will be an
everyday part of sports. There will be no one who uses conventional methods anymore, everyone
will use data (Seifert, 2016).

My Growth as a Researcher
Running a research blog and constantly being tasked to find information that interests me
was a very different experience for me than what I had done before. This time I was allowed to
research anything I wanted, which made the research and paper-writing process a lot more fun
for me. I will be doing high level research throughout the rest of my academic and professional
career. Google Scholar will be a source I use any time I do research from now on to read
scholarly articles. Searching through databases and getting knowledge from professionals will be
things that I do for a very long time as well. I feel much more prepared for my senior project
after this experience and I think I know where I want to go with it. This I-Search was a great
opportunity to learn about my topic of choice as well as time management and organization, all
of which will prove quite important in my future.

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CITED REFERENCES
Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.baseballreference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
Davenport, T. (n.d.). Three big benefits of big data analytics. Retrieved from
http://www.sas.com/en_ca/news/sascom/2014q3/Big-data-davenport.html
Karr, D. (2016, January 16). What is Big Data? What Are the Benefits of Big Data? Retrieved
from https://www.marketingtechblog.com/benefits-of-big-data/
Seifert, Kevin: Personal Communication
Smith, K. (n.d.). Predicting association football match outcomes using social media and existing
models. Retrieved from https://www.cs.cf.ac.uk/PATS2/@archive_file?c=
Steinberg, L. (2015, August 18). CHANGING THE GAME: The Rise of Sports Analytics.
Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/leighsteinberg/2015/08/18/changing-thegame-the-rise-of-sports-analytics/#11c45dd431b2
Tichy, W. (n.d.). Changing the Game. Retrieved from http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2933230
Veips, L. (2014, September 16). Big Data Sports: How Data Is Changing The Future Of Sports.
Retrieved from http://cloudtweaks.com/2014/09/big-data-big-sports-data-changingfuture-sports/