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Article history:
Received 27 September 2012
Received in revised form
12 December 2012
Accepted 14 December 2012
Available online 16 January 2013
Keywords:
Probabilistic Energy Balance
Technical Losses
Non-Technical Losses
Distribution systems
Measurement data
Case study
a b s t r a c t
This work contemplates the development and application of a probabilistic methodology for the Technical
and Non-Technical Losses estimation in a feeder in the presence of load variations of a large distribution
system. Due to such variations in load, the feeder losses are also characterized as random variables
which are related to statistical moments, such as mean and variance. Comparing the Measured Energy
consumption in the feeder with the Billed Energy by the utility plus the Technical Losses, the energy
balance is made and the Non-Technical Losses are estimated. Along a feeder, meters are installed allowing
its division into sub-networks, therefore, the Non-Technical Losses of each circuit are estimated with
greater precision. This methodology is useful in countries that Smart Grids are far from reality and the
resources are scarce. A real system was used as a case study for the Probabilistic Energy Balance developed.
1. Introduction
The electrical losses represent a signicant share in the cost
matrix of distribution systems and, therefore, have always had
major highlight in planning studies. For utilities, due to the management model which emphasizes the productivity and protability,
a reduction in the costs can be achieved by improving the system
performance. In this sense, the decrease of Technical Losses of the
system, as well as improving the efciency of system operation
are desired goals for utilities and are required by the Regulatory Agency. Therefore, Technical Losses should be reduced to its
optimal level, i.e. the level at which no additional investment is
economically justied.
Thus, this work aims to develop a new methodology for the
probabilistic estimation of Technical1 and Non-Technical2 Losses
in a feeder in the presence of load variations of a large distribution
system. The proposed model determines the sensitivity of voltage
and Technical Losses variations in each bus without the need of a
Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 48 3721 9731; fax: +55 48 3721 7538.
E-mail address: earanha@gmail.com (E.A.C. Aranha Neto).
1
Technical Losses occur naturally and consist mainly of power dissipation in electricity system components such as transmission and distribution lines, transformers,
and measurement systems.
2
Non-Technical Losses are caused by actions external to the power system and
consist primarily of electricity theft, non-payment by customers, and errors in
accounting and record-keeping.
0378-7796/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2012.12.008
94
E.A.C. Aranha Neto, J. Coelho / Electric Power Systems Research 97 (2013) 9399
new sensitivity matrix with the inclusion of the loss (named MSit).
Therefore, the next step is to establish the desired accuracy for the
update of the losses of MSit. The accuracy inuences considerably
in the computational time that the algorithm takes to be executed.
The iterative process consists of n backward iterations, through
the end of the feeder to the beginning, in order to update Paci /Pj
and Qaci /Qj , which in the sensitivity matrix without losses were
binary matrices equal to the Reachability Matrix [9], and Qaci /Pj
and Paci /Qj that previously were null matrices. The accumulative
active (Pac) and reactive (Qac) powers are given by:
Paci = Pi + Paci+1 + LPaci+1 and Qaci = Qi + Qaci+1 + LQaci+1 (1)
Differentiating these expressions in relation to the active power
(P) results in:
(Pi + Paci+1 + LPaci+1 )
Paci+1
LPaci+1
Pi
Paci
=
=
+
+
Pj
Pj
Pj
Pj
Pj
(Qi + Qaci+1 + LQaci+1 )
Qaci+1
LQaci+1
Qaci
Qi
=
=
+
+
Pj
Pj
Pj
Pj
Pj
(3)
where the active (LPac) and reactive (LQac) losses are given by:
LPaci =
Ri (Paci2 + Qaci2 )
and LQaci =
Vi2
Vi (Paci2 + Qaci2 )
LQaci+1
= Xi
Pj
Paci
Vi3
Vi (Paci2 + Qaci2 )
Xi (Paci2 + Qaci2 )
Vi2
(4)
so:
LPaci+1
Paci
Qaci
2
= Ri
Paci
+ Qaci
Pj
Pj
Pj
V3
(2)
Vi
Pj
(5)
Paci
Qaci
+ Qaci
Pj
Pj
Vi
Pj
(6)
Similarly, the accumulated active and reactive powers derivatives in relation to the reactive power (Q) can be calculated. The
process continues until there is convergence of the voltage derivatives (Vi /Pj and Vi /Qj ) to the accuracy set.
3.4. Loss sensitivity in relation to the load variation
In order to determine a relationship that denotes the sensitivity
of the total Technical Loss in the feeder to the load variation, the
total Technical Loss, LS, is given by:
LS = LP + j LQ =
E E 2
2
i
zi i1
=
yi ||Ei1 Ei ||
z
(7)
gi ||Ei1 Ei ||
and LQ =
bi ||Ei1 Ei ||
(8)
(9)
E.A.C. Aranha Neto, J. Coelho / Electric Power Systems Research 97 (2013) 9399
||Ei1 Ei ||2
V
Vi
= 2Vi1 i1 + 2Vi
2
Pm
Pm
Pm
Vi
i
Pm
V
||Ei1 Ei ||2
Vi
= 2Vi1 i1 +2Vi
2
Qm
Qm
Qm
Vi1
Vi
+ Vi1
Pm
Pm
(10)
(11)
||E E ||2
||E E ||2
LP
LP
i1
i
i1
i
=
gi
and
=
gi
Pm
Pm
Qm
Qm
(12)
||E E ||2
||E E ||2
LQ
LQ
i1
i
i1
i
=
gi
and
=
gi
(13)
Pm
Qm
Pm
Qm
It can be observed that the losses variation in the above equations refers to the total Technical Losses in the feeder. The rst
vector element refers to the total losses sensitivity in relation to
variation in the rst load, the second element refers to the total
losses sensitivity in relation to the variation in the second load and
so on.
3.5. Technical Losses variation versus load variation model
Given the power ow calculation performed for a given average
load prole, the variation of the active Technical Losses in relation
to the change in the load may be estimated by:
LP
LP
m
LP
Pm +
Qm
Pm
Qm
(14)
2
= E{(LP) } E
LP
LP
LP
Pm +
Qm
Pm
Qm
2
(15)
2
E
LP
m =
LP
LP
Pm + m
Pm
Pm
Pm
2
2
1 FPm
(16)
2
FPm
LP
m
Pm
LP
LP
+ m
Pm
Pm
LP
+ m
Pm
2
(P)
2
2
E{(P) }
LP
m
V
Vi
Vi i1 + Vi1
Qm
Qm
i
Qm
2
LP
(17)
Pm
LP
+ m
Pm
95
2
P2
P2
LP
m
Pm
2
(1 + m )
(18)
96
E.A.C. Aranha Neto, J. Coelho / Electric Power Systems Research 97 (2013) 9399
Fig. 1. (a) Curves L and S do not cross; (b) Curves L and S do cross, forming an intersection area.
Pf =
(z) =
1
S L
2
eu /2 du and =
2
S2 + L2
4. Results
A real feeder from southern Brazil [13] was used to test and
validate the developed probabilistic methodology. This feeder has
mixed load characteristics: commercial, residential, small industries and a small rural region. The feeder serves mainly the city
downtown and is approximately 10 km long. A total of 4129 consumers is connected with an installed load of about 11 MVA. This
(19)
(21)
3.6.5. Estimation of Non-Technical Loss for the feeder and for the
sub-networks
Through the Probabilistic Balance of the Losses, subtracting the
Technical Losses from the Total Losses, the Non-Technical Losses for
the feeder are obtained. When more than one meter is installed on
the feeder, it can be separated into sub-networks. Thus, each subnetwork will operate like an independent feeder. By applying the
developed methodology in each of these sub-networks, the probability of occurrence and Non-Technical Losses for each of them are
estimated.
FS (l)fL (l)dl
(20)
E.A.C. Aranha Neto, J. Coelho / Electric Power Systems Research 97 (2013) 9399
97
Fig. 3. Measured Power (in W) on the SS (a) and in the intermediate point (b).
Fig. 4. Daily Measured Energy (in kWh) on the SS (a) and in the intermediate point (b).
feeder was initially composed of 605 buses and after the reduction
routine, it remained with 368 buses.
In this feeder, two meters were installed for a period of three
months: one in the substation (SS) and the other at an intermediate
point of the feeder, as shown in Fig. 2.
4.1. Feeder
Measurements were made from 10 to 10 min per day, obtaining
a total of 144 daily measurement points. Thus, a matrix with 368
lines, representing the number of system buses, and 144 columns
for each day of analysis is obtained. The results of one month are
presented.
In Fig. 3, the Measured Powers, discretized in hours, in the two
meters can be viewed. The month of analysis has a total of 720 h
(30 days).
The conversion from power (hourly average) to energy is made,
as shown in Fig. 4.
In Fig. 5, the Daily Billed Energy for the feeder can be visualized.
Through the execution of the power ow, with the daily average
for the month of analysis, the average value of the Technical Loss
is estimated and by using the developed analytical methodology,
the standard deviation of these losses is calculated. By making the
difference between the Measured Energy and Billed Energy, the values of Total Loss are evaluated. Non-Technical Loss is the difference
Average (kWh)
52,923.39
46,050.24
6873.15
917.90
5955.26
7636.48
6644.73
991.75
395.27
1067.61
98
E.A.C. Aranha Neto, J. Coelho / Electric Power Systems Research 97 (2013) 9399
Table 2
Average and standard deviation of Sub-network IIs variables.
Average (kWh)
44,809.07
38,808.68
6000.39
209.16
5791.23
6264.00
5425.19
838.81
92.92
843.94
Average (kWh)
8114.33
7241.56
872.77
696.93
175.83
1406.80
1248.67
158.27
290.43
330.75
E.A.C. Aranha Neto, J. Coelho / Electric Power Systems Research 97 (2013) 9399
99
Fig. 9. Daily Measured Energy (a) and Daily Billed Energy (b) (in kWh) of Sub-network I.
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