Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
VOLUME 25
H.-F. GRAF
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
YEE LEUNG
Department of Geography and Resource Management, and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese
University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China
MICHAEL HERZOG
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
(Manuscript received 4 August 2011, in final form 7 March 2012)
ABSTRACT
This study examines whether there exist significant differences in tropical cyclone (TC) landfall between
central Pacific (CP) El Nino, eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino, and La Nina during the peak TC season (June
October) and how and to what extent CP El Nino influences TC landfall over East Asia for the period 19612009.
The peak TC season is subdivided into summer [JuneAugust (JJA)] and autumn [SeptemberOctober
(SO)]. The results are summarized as follows: (i) during the summer of CP El Nino years, TCs are more likely
to make landfall over East Asia because of a strong easterly steering flow anomaly induced by the westward
shift of the subtropical high and northward-shifted TC genesis. In particular, TCs have a greater probability of
making landfall over Japan and Korea during the summer of CP El Nino years. (ii) In the autumn of CP
El Nino years, TC landfall in most areas of East Asia, especially Indochina, the Malay Peninsula, and the
Philippines, is likely to be suppressed because the large-scale circulation resembles that of EP El Nino years.
(iii) During the whole peak TC season [JuneOctober (JJASO)] of CP El Nino years, TCs are more likely to
make landfall over Japan and Korea. TC landfall in East Asia as a whole has an insignificant association with CP
El Nino during the peak TC season. In addition, more (less) TCs are likely to make landfall in China, Indochina,
the Malay Peninsula, and the Philippines during the peak TC season of La Nina (EP El Nino) years.
1. Introduction
Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce most of their damages
to coastal areas during or after landfall (Chan et al. 2004;
Rakhecha and Singh 2009). The understanding of conditions leading to TC landfall is thus of economic, social,
and scientific significance. TC landfall activity is largely
influenced by genesis locations and steering flow (Goh
and Chan 2010; Liu and Chan 2003; Wu et al. 2004). TC
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Meteorological Centre Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo) (available online at http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jmacenter/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html). The original
TC best-track dataset is processed on the Environmental
Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS 9.3 desktop to
generate shape files of TC points and tracks. Landfalling TC in this study refers to any TC in WNP with its
center crossing the coastline (Chan and Xu 2009). The
time period for TCs is from 1961 to 2009. TCs are
probably underestimated previous to the 1960s, when
satellite observations became available for monitoring
TCs (Chan 1985; see also Wu et al. 2004). It is noted that
only TCs with the intensity of a tropical storm (maximum sustained wind .17 m s21) or higher are considered because of the possibly large errors in counting the
number of tropical depressions. Since most of TCs form
in the peak TC season from June to October (JJASO)
(Chen and Tam 2010), we collected TCs with intensity
levels of tropical storm or higher during the peak season
in WNP. JJASO are selected as the studying months. We
have compared the results based in JuneNovember
(JJASON) with those based in JJASO and an insignificant difference is found between the two schemes.
The monthly 18 3 18 SST dataset is obtained from the
Hadley Centre (Rayner et al. 2003). Monthly means of
meteorological variables (e.g., geopotential height and
zonal and meridional wind fields) are obtained from the
National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPNCAR) reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of 2.58 3 2.58 and
available from 1948 to 2007 (Kalnay et al. 1996).
The major concern in this study is to analyze the influence of different regimes of ENSO on TC landfall in
East Asia. Therefore, the study area consists of East
Asia and WNP (shown in Fig. 1). To differentiate the
characteristics of TC landfall in different areas in East
Asia, four subareas are defined in Fig. 1, described as
follows: Japan and Korea, China, Indochina and the
Malay Peninsula, and the Philippines. The landfall frequencies are calculated in these four subareas in particular, as well as in East Asia as a whole. Although the
Philippines are geographically not part of East Asia we
still define them as one of its subareas in line with previous studies (Wu et al. 2004; Chan and Xu 2009). It
should be noted that the number of TC landfalls in East
Asia as a whole for a particular year is not necessarily
the sum of the numbers of TC landfalls in the four subareas. A TC that makes landfall in China (one landfall
count in the China group), then recurves and makes
landfall again in Japan or Korea (one landfall count in
the Japan and Korea group), is counted only once in
the East Asia group. The area for composite analysis
is defined as a rectangular region from 908E to 1608W in
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FIG. 1. The four defined landfall subareas in East Asia: (i) Japan
and Korea, (ii) China, (iii) Indochina and the Malay Peninsula, and
(iv) the Philippines.
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3. Results
TC track density during CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and
La Nina years is illustrated in Fig. 2 as in Wu et al.
(2005). TC track density denotes the annual average TC
frequency in each 2.58 3 2.58 grid box during different
ENSO regimes. The dashed gray curves denote the main
paths of TC tracks. The main path in Fig. 2 indicates
a greater chance of making landfall over Japan and
Korea during CP El Nino years than EP El Nino years.
The main path in La Nina years displays a similar tendency to make landfall in Japan and Korea to that in CP
El Nino years (Fig. 2). It should be noted that the
number of TCs that made landfall in Japan and Korea
are 92, 70, and 52 during eight CP El Nino, nine EP
El Nino, and seven La Nina years, respectively. Figure 3
illustrates the density of TC genesis at which a TC attains the intensity level of a tropical storm for the
first time during its lifespan in CP El Nino, EP El Nino,
and La Nina years. The contours in Fig. 3 depict the
annual average frequency of TC formation in each 58 3 58
grid box during different ENSO regimes. Figure 3
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EMI
Nino-3
Nino-4
0.252
20.116
20.301*
20.065
20.048
0.053
0.368*
20.374** 20.350*
20.401** 20.267
20.002
0.174
20.367*
20.318*
0.128
0.457**
0.158
0.250
0.229
0.346*
20.210
20.307*
20.308*
20.160
0.172
0.020
0.226
20.025
0.012
20.019
20.479**
20.346*
20.515**
20.525**
0.098
0.201
0.252
0.053
0.086
0.132
20.545**
20.408**
20.565**
20.539**
20.098
20.094
20.133
0.251
0.220
0.025
0.126
0.127
20.464**
20.400**
20.555**
20.512**
0.188
Nino-3.4
20.196
20.101
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TABLE 2. The annual average frequency of TC landfall in different landfalling areas during summer, autumn, and the whole
peak TC season of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and La Nina years. The
row names are defined as in Table 1. The boldface numbers indicate the annual average frequencies of landfalling TCs corresponding to significant correlation coefficients in Table 1.
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CP El Nino
EP El Nino
La Nina
15
2.4
3.5
8.1
6.9
10.5
1.5
2.5
6.4
4.9
4.5
0.9
1
1.8
2
11.6
3.4
3
6.1
5
8.2
2.2
2
5.1
3.7
3.3
1.2
1
1
1.3
13.1
3.1
5.6
7.7
5.1
6.9
0.7
1.9
4.1
3.9
6.3
2.4
3.7
3.6
1.3
4. Large-scale environments
a. TC genesis during summer
TC genesis location is defined to be the point at which
a TC attains the intensity of a tropical storm for the first
time during its lifespan. TCs that make landfall over
Japan and Korea are likely to form in higher latitudes of
their genesis compared with TCs making landfall in
other areas of East Asia.
As shown in Table 3, TCs in CP El Nino form at
a significantly higher average latitude than in EP
El Nino. It is noteworthy that the average latitude of TC
genesis locations in CP El Nino is significantly lower
than in La Nina. No significant difference is detected in
longitude between CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and
La Nina. The poleward-shifted genesis location in CP
El Nino plays an essential role in promoting the occurrence of TC landfalls in Korea and Japan during the
summer of CP El Nino years.
TABLE 3. The MannWhitney U test results between TC genesis locations during JJA of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and La Nina years.
(CP El Nino 2 EP El Nino)Latitude indicates the value when subtracting the average latitude of TC genesis locations in EP El Nino from
that in CP El Nino. The other rows are defined likewise. The boldface numbers indicate that the difference in latitude or longitude is
significant at the 0.01 or 0.05 significance level.
Variables
Z score
2.709
21.586
24.712
1.218
22.003
0.369
23.926
20.240
24.940
20.214
22.033
20.050
,0.01
0.810
,0.01
0.830
,0.05
0.960
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FIG. 4. Composite of SST anomalies (units: 8C) during JJA of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and La Nina years for the
region (58S458N, 908E1208W). The dashed rectangles indicate the regions of high positive SST anomalies in different ENSO regimes. The plotting area is outside of WNP to show the SST anomaly in the CP.
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FIG. 6. Composite 500-hPa geopotential height and wind field anomalies during JJA of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and
La Nina years.
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FIG. 7. Composite SST anomalies (units: 8C) during SO of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and La Nina years. The dashed
rectangles indicate the regions of high SST anomalies in different ENSO regimes.
5. Conclusions
Previous research on impacts of CP El Nino, EP
El Nino, and La Nina on TC activity has shown significant influences in terms of TC formation and tracks. In
the present study, we focus on how and to what extent
CP El Nino influences characteristics of TC landfall over
East Asia in comparison with EP El Nino and La Nina.
Existing findings suggest that significant differences
in landfall activity over East Asia exist merely during
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FIG. 8. Composite 600-hPa RH anomaly (%; shaded) and vertical wind shear magnitude anomalies (m s21; contour) during SO
of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and La Nina years. The rectangles
indicate the regions favorable for TC formation in different
ENSO regimes.
TABLE 4. The MannWhitney U test results between TC genesis locations during SO of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and La Nina years. The
row names are defined as in Table 3. The boldface numbers indicate that the difference in latitude or longitude is significant at the 0.01 or
0.05 significance level.
Variables
Z score
2.617
20.802
22.439
8.867
0.178
8.065
22.755
20.346
22.987
23.395
20.034
23.726
,0.01
0.485
,0.01
,0.01
0.844
,0.01
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FIG. 9. Composite 500-hPa geopotential height and wind field anomalies during SO of CP El Nino, EP El Nino, and
La Nina years.
REFERENCES
Adams, J. B., M. E. Mann, and C. M. Ammann, 2003: Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature,
426, 274278.
Altman, D. G., 1991: Practical Statistics for Medical Research.
Chapman and Hall/CRC, 611 pp.
Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata,
2007: El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163172.
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