CE 5603 SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

LECTURE 5:MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION

OF
PSHA

By : Prof. Dr. K. nder etin

Middle East Technical University
Civil Engineering Department

Introduction

Probabilistic hazard analysis is a statistical evaluation of the ground motions at a site from an
artificial catalog of future earthquakes.

Seismic source characterization is the model used to develop the occurrence of earthquakes in
the future. This model could be used to predict the occurrence of earthquakes for a return
period of 1000000 years, for example.

If PGA of 0.2 g occurs 10000 times in our 1000000 year dataset, then 0.2 g occurs about every
100 years. Similarly, if 1 g occurs only 500 times in our 1000000 year dataset, then 1 g occurs
about every 2000 years. If we plot these return periods then we build up a hazard curve.

The shape of the hazard curve results from random variations in the locations and magnitudes
of the earthquakes in our artificial catalog and from the random variations in the ground motion
attenuation.

Introduction

The example of using the seismic source characterization to develop a 1000000 year catalog is
useful for an initial conceptual understanding of seismic hazard analysis, however it is not what
we are going to do; we are NOT trying to predict what will happen over the next 1000000 years,
but rather we are estimating the probabilities that a level of ground motion will occur in the next
year (or 50 years). If the earthquake process is stationary (i.e. earthquake rates do not change
with time) then two approaches give the same answer.

There is often a misunderstanding of hazard analysis or low annual probabilities. For example,
if we are discussing the 10-4 ground motion level (return period of 10000 years) someone may
comment that we don't know what will happen 10000 years from now. However, if 9999 years
have already passed, there is a high chance that we will learn what will happen after a 10000
year return period earthquake. A 10-4 annual probability is just that 1 in 10000 chance that the
ground motion occurs next year. It does not imply that the models are applicable to the next
10000 years.

Mathematical Models

PSHA was introduced by Cornell (1968). The main change from the original work is that more
parameters are randomized (a more complete description of aleatory variables) and epistemic
uncertainty is considered.

In the original work, aleatory variability in the ground motion which has a large effect on the
hazard was not considered.

The hazard analysis computes the number of events that produce a ground motion parameter
A that exceeds a specified level a. This number of events per year, v, is also called the
annual frequency of exceedance. The inverse of v is called the return period.

Mathematical Models

The calculation of the annual frequency of exceedance v involves,

The rate of earthquake of various magnitudes

Rupture dimensions of earthquakes
The location of the earthquakes relative to the site
Attenuation of the ground motion from the earthquake rupture to the site.

The annual rate of events from the ith source that exceeds a at the site is the product of the
probability that the ground motion exceeds the test value given that an earthquake has
occurred on the ith source and the annual rate of events with magnitude greater than Mmin on
the ith source.

i ( A a) N i ( M min ) Pi ( A a | Ei (m M min ))

where Ni(Mmin) is the annual number of events with magnitude greater than Mmin on the ith source and
Ei(Mmin) indicates that an event with magnitude greater than or equal to Mmin has occurred on the ith source.

Mathematical Models

For multiple seismic sources, the total annual rate of events with ground motions that exceed
a at the site is just the sum of the annual rate of events from the individual sources (assuming
that the sources are independent).

( A a)

Nsource

( A a )
i 1

Point Source

Point Source (Fixed Depth)

Point source models are often used for seismic source zones with well known faults (including
background zones). For a point source at a fixed depth, the conditional probability

Pi ( A a | Ei (m M min )) is given by;

M max

Pi ( A a | Ei (m M min ))

P ( A a | m, r ) f (m) f (r ) dm dr
i

0 M min

Point Source (Variable Depth)

If aleatory variability in the depth is included, then the conditional probability is given by

Pi ( A a | Ei (m M min ))

rh M max z z max

P ( A a | m, r (r , z )) f (m) f (r ) f ( z ) dm dr
i

rh 0 M min

z 0

dz

Line Source

For faults, the fault location is used with extended rupture models rather the point source
model. The simplest fault source is a line source. For a line source the conditional probability is
given by,

Pi ( A a | Ei (m M min ))

RL Rmax x 1 m M max

P ( A a | m, r ( x, R
i

RL 0

) f M i (m) f RL ,i (m) f xi ( x) dm dx dRL

x 0 m M min

where x is the location of the center of the rupture, given in

the fraction of the distance along the strike (x=0 corresponds
to the other end of the fault).

The rupture length in km is indicated by RL is used to define

the extent of the rupture and is used along with the rupture
location to determine the closest distance, r.

Planar Source

Faults are no lines, but are often modeled by planes.

For planar sources, the conditional probability is given by,

Pi ( A a | Ei (m M min ))

x 1 m M max

P ( A a | m, r ( x, R
i

) f M i (m) f RW ,i (m) f xi ( x) dm dx dRW

RW 0 x 0 m M min

where fRw (m), f(x) are probability density functions for the rupture width and rupture location
downdip respectively.

Probability of Exceedance
(e t ) ( t ) n
Pn (t )
n!

The probability that at least one event occurs is 1 minus the probability that no events occur.

P(n 1, t ) 1 P0 (t ) 1 e ( t )

So, probability of at least one occurrence of ground motion level a in t years is given by

P( A a, t ) 1 e ( ( Aa )t )

Complete PSHA Formulation

Pi ( A a | E i (m M min ))

RL , max F . Length RW , max z max M max

RL 0

x 0

Rw 0 z 0 M min

Pi ( A a | m, r ( x, z , R L , RW )
f M i (m) f RL ,i (m) f RW ,i (m) f xi ( x) f z ,i ( z )
dm dR L dRW dx dz

Maximum Size of Future Earthquakes and Activity Rates

A) Historical Data

B) Geological Information
Seismic energy release is balanced by the buildup of
seismic moment. The buildup of seismic moment is
computed from the long term slip rate.
Seismic Moment,

M0 A D

where
: Rigidity of the crust

A : Area of the fault rupture

D : Average slip on the fault

Annual buildup of seismic moment:

M0

M 0
D
A
t
t
Slip rate (cm/year)

Maximum Size of Future Earthquakes and Activity Rates

B) Geological Information

Seismic moment released during an earthquake:

log 10 M 0 1.5 M W 16.05

To balance the moment buildup and the moment release, the annual moment rate from the slip
rate is set equal to the sum of the moment released in all of the earthquakes that are expected
to occur each year.
A S N ( M min )

M max

(m) 10 (1.5m16.05) dm

M min

Given the slip rate S, fault area A and magnitude density function, the activity rate N(Mmin) can
be calculated.