Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
August
August
25,25,
2014
2014
NR - PT: None
Research Update
Key Data
Rating
Price Target
Price (08/22/2014 Close)
52 Week High-Low
Market Cap ($ mm)
Shares Out (mm)
90-day Average Daily Vol
Public Market Float
FY December
Total Revenue
EBITDA
CAPEX
Net Leverage
EV/EBITDA
11.375%
7.875%
10.000%
8.875%
7.625%
Sr. Notes
Sr. Notes
Sr. Notes
Sr. Notes
Sr. Notes
Amount
Maturity Outstanding
8/15/2019
8/15/2019
8/15/2016
12/15/2019
4/1/2021
900
700
800
500
1,450
(1) estimated rate of return based on par + accrued recovery assuming a Sep-15 exit date.
Source: Bloomberg, SEC Filings and CRT Capital Group
2011A
$6,381
$1,555
962
1.4x
3.7x
2013A
$4,773
$324
665
14.9x
15.5x
MDY
S&P
Offer
Price
Caa1
Caa1
Caa3
Caa3
Caa3
D
D
D
D
D
67.0
66.3
31.0
31.0
16.5
Workout Creation
IRR(1)
Valuation
68%
62%
n/a
n/a
n/a
$2,522
$2,498
$4,074
$4,074
$3,730
------
Telecom
Financials
Investments Considerations
$ in millions
FY13A
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
YoY change
$4,574
-16%
$3,578
-22%
$3,434
-4%
$4,222
23%
$5,120
21%
$5,862
14%
EBITDA
YoY change
Margin
$188
-70%
4%
($327)
-274%
-9%
$157
-148%
5%
$611
289%
14%
$1,098
80%
21%
$1,504
37%
26%
$547
12%
($1,266)
-35%
($291)
-8%
($61)
-1%
$439
9%
$783
13%
(1)
Valuation Methodology
Nextel International is a distressed wireless telecom company; we thus
employ a variety of valuation techniques including a DCF analysis of
management's consolidated financial projections; an M&A scenario analysis
based on potential available synergies; and a spectrum value analysis based
on estimated incremental earnings power on behalf of potential acquirers.
Valuation Summary
(1)
Methodology
Standalone Plan DCF
Sale(s) to Strategic(s): Synergy Value
Sale(s) to Strategic(s): Spectrum Value
Risk Summary
$ Price
8.00
Vol. (mm)
100
80
6.00
60
4.00
40
2.00
20
.00
AUG-13
DEC-13
APR-14
AUG-14
Page 2
Telecom
Discount Rate
Our DCF analysis (see below) discounts back management's projected unlevered
after-tax cash flows along with our estimated terminal value based on a range of
discount rates and terminal EBITDA multiples. Aside from management's projections
(see pp. 20-22), key inputs include a relatively high hurdle rate of around 20% and
a conservative exit multiple of around 6x Adj. EBITDA. A relatively high hurdle rate
is appropriate, in our view, given the high degree of risk and uncertainty associated
with management's projections. Our exit multiple is high relative to mature players
in the marketplace but reflects management's considerably higher projected EBITDA
growth rates, even at the end of the projection period.
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
7.00x
$4,703
$5,100
$5,538
$6,022
$6,560
Meaningful asset sales are not yet in sight. Nextel International has been actively
exploring asset sales for the past several months. The Company announced back
on March 10 that it had retained UBS to advise on potential strategic opportunities
including, inter alia, the sale of its assets and operations in Mexico and Brazil. At the
same time, Nextel announced that it had retained Rothschild to advise on a potential
balance sheet restructuring. Ultimately we see a tremendous amount of strategic
appeal for the Company's assets, but the clock is running out. With Nextel now in
the grace period on coupon payments associated with $2.4 billion of both Lux Co and
Hold Co bonds, we see little chance the Company is able to line up meaningful asset
sales before it is forced to restructure its balance sheet.
Since hiring UBS, Nextel has announced only a single asset sale, and not a terribly
meaningful one at that. On August 14, the Company closed on the sale of its Chilean
operations to a foreign consortium for a de minimus amount. On the one hand,
the price was quite low relative to press speculation suggesting $250 million of
combined value for Chile and Argentina. On the other hand, the Chilean operations
were burning cash - we estimate a NEGATIVE $100 million Adj. EBITDA run-rate.
Getting ANY amount of cash back for this albatross might be considered a positive
development.
Page 3
Telecom
Low
$4,072
747
(1,000)
(450)
(1,434)
$1,934
Mid
$4,797
747
(1,000)
(225)
(1,434)
$2,884
High
$5,622
747
(1,000)
(150)
(1,434)
$3,784
Lux Co bonds
plus: accrued interest through emergence(3)
Total Lux Co Claims
recovery
$1,600
256
$1,856
100%
$1,600
256
$1,856
100%
$1,600
256
$1,856
100%
$78
$1,028
$1,928
$2,752
353
$3,105
3%
$2,752
353
$3,105
33%
$2,752
353
$3,105
62%
$0
NM
$0
NM
$0
NM
(1)
(1) reflects management's projected unlevered after-tax cash flows, i.e., EBITDA less Cap Ex, working
capital & taxes. See sensitivity analysis on page 3.
(2) reflects an estimated $200 million necessary to run the business.
(3) reflects an estimated Sep-15 emergence.
Source: Company filings; CRT estimates.
Page 4
Telecom
Nextel could be worth even more to one or more current of future in-market
competitors. Despite the absence of significant asset sales to date, we believe
Nextel's assets and operations in Mexico and Brazil have considerable strategic appeal
to current and prospective in-market competitors. While its overall market share
is small in each country (3% and 1%, respectively), the Company remains a leader
within the aspirational and business-class segment of the market, we believe. Unlike
its competitors, Nextel's business is predominantly post-paid, which historically has
translated into higher ARPU and lower churn relative to peers. As its 3G rollout has
progressed throughout the key Brazilian markets of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro,
Nextel has had the highest share postpaid net adds amongst its competitors. Its brand
took a hit in Mexico after Sprint shut down its iDEN network north of the border, but
customer satisfaction has improved as of late.
Potential Cost Savings Suggest Significant Value to In-Market Peers
($ in millions)
Mexico
Brazil
Total
$1,550
1,750
($200)
$1,950
2,150
($200)
$3,500
3,900
($400)
30%
$525
30%
$645
30%
$1,170
$325
6.0x
$1,950
$445
6.0x
$2,670
$770
6.0x
$4,620
While Nextel's operations in Mexico and Brazil currently generate substantial negative
EBITDA (run-rate of $196 million and $225 million, respectively), the combined
markets generate roughly $3.5 billion of service revenues (see table above). To one or
more in-market players, potential synergies could be $1 billion or more, per annum.
These in-market competitors could thus view Nextel as a means toward acquiring
$600-800 million of incremental pro forma Adj. EBITDA that might otherwise go
disproportionately to competitors.
Reduction in
Cash Op Ex
5.0x
$1,900
$2,875
$3,850
$4,825
$5,800
7.0x
$2,660
$4,025
$5,390
$6,755
$8,120
Page 5
Telecom
Nextel's corporate and capital structures are complex to say the least. In addition
to substantial priority obligations at various local operating companies, Nextel has
issued bonds public bonds out of its domestic holding company (the "Hold Co bonds")
as well as an intermediate holding company based in Luxembourg (the "Lux Co
bonds"). The Lux Co bonds were designed to be structurally senior to the Hold Co's,
though some Hold Co creditors have recently challenged the validity of that notion.
These creditors argue, among other things, that certain subsidiary guarantees were
improperly or fraudulently removed from the 10% and 8.875% Hold Co bonds. While
we have not engaged legal counsel and are not in a position to offer legal advice, we
have examined what we believe to be the relevant documents. Our personal view is
that the dissident creditor group is unlikely to win the argument on its merits, since
the outstanding bonds were issued under a prospectus that seems to make clear
which entities do and do not guarantee the obligations.
Nextel International: Capitalization at Jun-14
$ in millions, except per share data
Multiple of EBITDA
(1)
LQA FY15E
Face
($548)
$157
Bank loans
Equiment financing
Cap leases
1st-priority obligations
$443.9
713.0
277.3
$1,434.1
-2.6x
$800.0
500.0
1,450.0
2.0
$5,786.1
Unrestricted cash
net debt
$946.6
$4,839.5
Equity value
total capitalization
($583.5)
$4,256.0
$
$
$
-5.5x
-10.6x
-8.8x
Interest
Expense
$443.9
713.0
277.3
$1,434.1
-2.6x
9.1x
$50.4
22.5
27.7
$100.6
67.0%
66.3%
$469.0
596.3
$2,499.4
-4.6x
-4.5x
-4.6x
16.0x
15.9x
15.9x
$55.1
102.4
$258.1
31.0%
31.0%
16.5%
-7.1x
-7.1x
-6.4x
24.8x
24.8x
22.2x
36.9x
$248.0
155.0
239.3
2.0
$3,678.4
-6.7x
23.4x
$80.0
44.4
110.6
0.2
$493.2
30.8x
$946.6
$2,731.8
-5.0x
17.4x
($4.7)
$488.4
$28.1
$2,759.9
-5.0x
17.6x
9.1x
(2)
Multiple of EBITDA
(1)
LQA FY15E
Market
($548)
$157
19.3x
$ 0.16
517
618
520
With substantial debt issued at the local level, i.e., in Mexico and Brazil, there is some
risk that foreign entities are brought into the bankruptcy process. The Company has
in fact disclosed that it is in default under local debt agreements in both Mexico
and Brazil. We believe the most-likely outcome is for the foreign entities to remain
out of bankruptcy, with debtor subsidiaries limited to those domiciled in the US and
Luxembourg. We note that the relevant indentures explicitly state that the Lux Co
bonds will be governed by New York State law. See the Company's summary corporate
structure chart on p. 19 for more details.
Page 6
Telecom
7%
3%
Telcel (America Movil)
Telcels dominance
has drawn the ire of
regulators
Movistar (Telefonica )
19%
Iusacell (Televisa
50%/Grupo Salinas 50%)
70%
Nextel International
A new entrant
would improve
prospects for a
strategic takeout, in
our view
Telcels dominance has drawn the ire of Mexican regulators who are working on ways to increase
competition within the country. Last December, the IFT (Mexicos FCC) labeled America Movil a
preponderant economic actor. In an effort to increase both wireless and fixed line competition,
the IFT ultimately proposed a set of punitive regulations specific to America Movil, including
forced network sharing, disadvantageous roaming rate agreements, and so on. Rather than
submit to these disruptive regulations, Movil announced in early July its intention to reduce its
market share to under 50% via the sale of a portion of its operations to a new, independent
competitor. By reducing its market share to less than 50%, Movil expects that it would no longer
be labeled a preponderant economic actor and thus would no longer be subject to the proposed
asymmetric regulations. While few additional details are available, we expect the IFT will bless
whatever strategic transaction Movil might propose.
This recent turn of events is potentially quite positive for NIHD. In our view, the rest of the field
must consolidate if theres to be a legitimate long-term alternative to America Movil. As it stands
right now, only Telefonica appears to be in a position to lead that consolidation, creating an
unfavorable dynamic for the markets smaller players. A new competitor in the market would
improve those dynamics, as it too would likely be well-positioned to acquire smaller in-market
players like Nextel.
Page 7
Telecom
Despite significant investment designed to improve its image, the Nextel Mexico brand has lost
much of its luster, in our view. Historically the brand was favored by businesses and individuals
who used Nextels push-to-talk (or PTT) feature to instantaneously and inexpensively
communicate with colleagues and relatives north of the border. In a pre-data, 2G world, this
popular feature earned Nextel a greater-than-average number of post-paid customers with higher
ARPU and lower churn relative to peers. Unfortunately for Nextel, Sprint shut down its iDEN
network in June 2013, rendering Nextels PTT functionality far less popular.
Sprints iDEN network shutdown was not a surprise. Sprint had been telling the market for over a
year that is was going to discontinue iDEN service. Unfortunately for Nextel stakeholders,
management did not take requisite pre-emptive steps to contain the fallout. From a network
standpoint, Nextel was left with relatively poor coverage and call quality, limited ability to offer
data services and no discernible competitive advantage, in our opinion. The rapid decline in
subscribers the Company has since reported should come as no surprise, in our view.
Total Number of NIHD Mexican Wireless Subscribers:
The shutdown of
Sprints iDEN
network in the US
led to significant
subscriber losses at
Nextel Mexico
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
NIHD's Mexican Wireless Subscribers (in thousands)
Source: Company filings and CRT estimates
Rebuilding the
Nextel Mexico brand
would require
significant
investment in
network upgrades
and customer
service, we believe
Nextel has a lot of work to do to turn things around. The Company has taken some positive first
steps with new apps that attempt to replicate the PTT functionality it previously featured. The
Company also launched a strategic plan dubbed Project Accelerate in order to change the
market perception of its brand. Nextel now accommodates the newest, top-of-the-line handsets
on its network. Customer service (which even Management admits is currently subpar) has
improved. Nextel has begun selectively rolling out 3G and even 4G LTE coverage in select
Mexican cities.
Success is far from guaranteed, in our opinion. Competitors are already ahead in providing 3G
coverage and rolling out 4G. Telcel, for example, already offers nationwide 3G coverage and its
rapidly-expanding 4G LTE network already covers ~65% of the Mexican population, it claims.
Nextel would have to spend billions over the next few years, we believe, in order to catch up a
tall order, even in the context of a restructured balance sheet.
In the near term, the Companys 3G roaming agreement with Telefonica (which covers Brazil as
well as Mexico) should alleviate the need to rapidly build out new network while slowing the pace
Page 8
Telecom
of subscriber losses. But a roaming agreement is hardly a long-term solution, in our opinion. The
economics of such arrangements invariably favor the network owner at the expense of the
network renter.
Nextel has a strong position in wireless spectrum, in our view, with 30 MHz nationwide in the 1.7 /
2.1 GHz band to complement its 20 MHz (nationwide weighted average) in the 800 MHz band.
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Region 5
Region 6
Region 7
Region 8
Region 9
Total
Estimated Spectrum
Population
(MHz)
MHz-POPs
4.2
43.0
179.6
5.5
52.5
290.1
6.3
52.0
326.4
10.3
62.0
635.7
13.8
53.5
736.0
13.6
53.0
721.4
22.9
53.7
1,231.9
11.7
55.5
650.4
30.0
52.0
1,557.5
6,328.9
3.3
1,938.4
Compared to in-market competitors, Nextel has significantly more usable spectrum per
subscriber, according to our estimates. In fact with nearly two thousand MHz-POPs per
subscriber, Nextel has more than twice as much spectrum per subscriber as Iusacell and more
than four times as much as Telefonica. We recognize that to some extent, this represents the
silver lining of having too few subscribers on its network. But regardless, in-market players whose
networks are more congested would be well-served by gaining access to Nextels spectrum
assets, in our view.
It is important to note that some of Nextels spectrum rights require ongoing payments back to the
federal government, in addition to customary build-out requirements. For example the 30 MHz of
1.7 / 2.1 GHz spectrum the Company purchased in a July 2010 auction bears an ongoing
obligation to pay 18 billion pesos (~$1.4 billion) in spectrum fees over the 20-year life of the
concession. As such, some analysts have suggested the Nextel doesnt really own its spectrum.
But wireless spectrum is never really owned privately not in the United States, not in Mexico. In
our experience, spectrum always remains an asset of the federal government. Private companies
bid on the right to use the spectrum for a government-specified period of time, for a governmentspecified purpose, subject to government-specified build-out requirements and / or other ongoing
expenses (clearing, guard bands, etc.). We are confident that 30 MHz of clean spectrum in the
1.7 / 2.1 GHz band is worth far more than $70 million per annum, and that any in-market player
would be envious of the Companys rights in this regard. Underscoring our point, one in-market
player Iusacell sued the Mexican government in 2010, arguing that the arrangement was
wildly off-market in Nextels favor.
Page 9
Telecom
The chart above shows raw spectrum holdings by region for all four wireless carriers in the
Mexican marketplace. Regions are for the most part ordered by population, i.e., region 9 is
Mexicos most-populated with roughly 29 million inhabitants vs. region 1, the least-populated with
only about 4 million inhabitants. The takeaway here is that while Nextel has relatively few
subscribers, it has access to roughly the same amount of raw spectrum as peers. As a result, its
spectrum position becomes a valuable strategic asset, in our view.
We think that Nextels spectrum rights in Mexico alone could be worth billions (US) to any number
of in-market players notwithstanding the ongoing payment obligations and buildout
requirements that would be attached to any transfer. Consider one example, Telefonica with 20
million subscribers and roughly the same MHz of available spectrum as Nextel. From Telefonicas
standpoint, acquiring Nextel would nearly double its spectrum holdings, while increasing its
subscriber base by only 15% or so. Put another way, its spectrum holdings per subscriber would
increase by roughly 60%. Increased spectrum per subscriber results in a better user experience,
with less congestion, enhanced access to high-speed data and fewer blocked / dropped calls, in
our opinion. This in turn translates into higher potential ARPU, lower churn and lower CPGA. As
the chart below indicates, we believe these favorable changes could be worth several billion
dollars to an acquirer like Telefonica, even net of the ongoing payment obligations it would have
to bear.
Page 10
Telecom
While surviving as an independent company may not ultimately be feasible, we think Nextels
asset and operations in Mexico have tremendous strategic appeal. Recent regulatory
developments suggest a new openness toward consolidation, in our view. Telefonica recently
disclosed it was in negotiations with Iusacell regarding a potential merger, and we believe most
global telcos are taking a hard look at the $5 billion or so of business that Carlos Slim has
pledged to divest. Given its higher-end, post-paid focus and upwards of $500 million of potential
synergies, not to mention its strong spectrum position, Nextel could represent an attractive target
for would-be consolidators looking to give the mighty Movil a run for its money, in our opinion.
Compared to Mexico, the Brazilian wireless market is much more competitive. Key players
Telefonica, Telecom Italia, America Movil and Oi have roughly equivalent pieces of the ~$32
billion market. NIHD represents only a small fraction of the overall market, but this is somewhat
misleading, as Nextel has much greater market share in key cities including Sao Paulo and Rio
de Janeiro. The overall market has a wireless penetration rate of ~136%, according to data from
regulators, suggesting that most Brazilians who want a mobile phone have access to at least one.
Brazilian Wireless Telecom Market Share, FY13
1%
18%
29%
Vivo (Telefonica)
TIM Brasil (Telecom Italia)
Claro (America Movil)
Oi (Portugal Telecom*)
Nextel International
25%
27%
*Oi and Portugal Telecom are in the process of merging
Source: Company filings and CRT estimates
Within Brazil, Nextel has focused its network roll-out in the highly populated Sao Paolo and Rio
de Janeiro areas. The Company is focused on the higher-ARPU postpaid Brazilian consumer
who values fast data access and top-of-the-line handsets. Currently the Companys subscriber
base is 100% postpaid which makes it unique amongst Brazilian wireless providers (the Brazilian
market as a whole is 79% prepaid and only 21% postpaid).
3G roaming deal
with Telefonica
helps, but Nextel
still needs to make
large investments in
its network if it is
to continue as an
independent player
Compared to the four largest market competitors, we view Nextels network position as relatively
weak. Due to past reliance on PTT functionality as a differentiator, the Company until recently
neglected to upgrade its network to competitive 3G speeds. Nextel is playing catch up, building
out 3G coverage in major cities and starting to roll out 4G LTE coverage in select cities.
Meanwhile, competitors already have near-nationwide 3G coverage and are working on
expanding 4G LTE coverage. The Companys roaming agreement with Telefonica was an
important positive development for NIHD. As mentioned previously, Nextel announced in this past
January that it reached an agreement with Telefonica to allow NIHD customers to roam on
Telefonicas much more extensive 3G wireless network. Normally we look askance at network
sharing deals, as the economics tend to favor network owners over network renters. In this
instance, the roaming agreement is a significant positive for Nextel, with enhanced customer
retention, financial liquidity and preservation of capital as the Company builds out its own network
capacity.
Page 11
Telecom
In Brazil, an evolving
competitive
landscape, as
Telefonica responds
to regulatory
concerns
Nextel has also taken steps to improve the competitiveness of its handset offerings. Given that its
focus on the higher end of the market, Nextel cant get away with offering last years handsets.
This past January, the Company finally signed an agreement with Apple to bring the iPhone 5s
and 5c to its network. The iPhone will supplement the new Samsung Galaxy phones that Nextel
also makes available. New handset offerings are an incremental positive, in our view, that should
make the Companys Brazilian product offering more competitive. The proof appears to be in the
pudding: year to date in Sao Paulo and Rio, Nextel has captured more 3G post-paid net adds
than any of its competitors.
Even as Nextel upgrades its network and product offerings, the competitive landscape could
change dramatically over the coming year. Last December, Brazils anti-trust regulator (CADE)
notified Telefonica that it must either sell its ownership stake in Telecom Italia (parent of TIM
Brasil) or find a strategic partner to buy 50% of Telefonicas Brazilian operations (Vivo). The
regulatory body also fined Telefonica R$15 million (~$6.4 million) for violations of a 2010
agreement the Company signed to preserve competition in the Brazilian telecommunications
market.
These regulatory actions came about due to Telefonicas September 2013 purchase of a larger
stake in Telco S.p.A. (a holding company that effectively controls the composition of the majority
of seats on Telecom Italias board through its 22% ownership stake of the Company). As of
January 2014, Telefonica can effectively control almost 65% of Telco S.p.A (subject to regulatory
approval). CADEs ruling indicates Brazilian regulators believe this control over Telecom Italia,
and thus TIM Brasil, hurts Brazilian consumers. In addition, Brazils telecom regulator Anatel has
according to news accounts stated that it would scrutinize any merger which would result in a
smaller number of major mobile phone carriers, in order to keep the Brazilian wireless market
competitive.
Regulators appear to be pressuring Telefonica to reduce its stake in Vivo or dispose of its
interests in TIM Brasil. Meanwhile, Telecom Italia is currently pursuing a deal with Vivendi that
would merge its wireless TIM Brasil operations with Vivendis wireline-focused Brazilian GVT
subsidiary. While these dramatic events may or may not change the likelihood that Nextel is
ultimately acquired, they highlight that a variety of global telecommunications companies consider
Brazil an important market.
In addition to a merger or sale to an in-market competitor, we see some chance that Nextel is
ultimately sold to a buyer not yet involved in the Brazilian market. In fact Joao Rezende, the
President of Anatel, has been quoted in news reports as saying Brazil may gain a fifth major
competitor either through an expansion of Nextel or the arrival of a new foreign participant in the
upcoming 4G spectrum auction, set to begin end of next month. We find it unlikely that Nextel
could become a real threat to current market leaders on a stand-alone basis, but the Company
could certainly pose a future threat after a sale to, or merger with, a well-capitalized foreign peer.
Page 12
Telecom
Mexico
$4,000
$2,000
$2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: World Bank
Page 13
Telecom
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
4,227
3,759
1,447
1,449
90
10,972
4,230
3,819
1,598
1,443
117
11,207
4,138
3,861
1,692
1,515
153
11,359
3,846
3,902
1,756
1,660
198
11,362
3,885
3,918
1,819
1,669
192
11,483
3,880
3,939
1,888
n/a
208
9,914
3,888
3,655
1,965
n/a
228
9,736
3,958
3,265
2,023
n/a
244
9,489
4,129
3,052
1,997
n/a
259
9,437
4,188
2,930
1,976
n/a
266
9,361
$824.3
544.5
168.5
88.8
7.1
$1,633.1
$712.5
521.1
165.1
86.4
10.7
$1,495.8
$693.2
523.2
178.5
84.5
12.5
$1,491.9
$672.3
520.8
173.0
83.6
15.8
$1,465.6
$635.9
514.0
167.0
82.6
13.9
$1,413.4
$578.6
502.7
164.0
n/a
14.3
$1,259.6
$491.0
442.0
158.2
n/a
10.1
$1,101.3
$502.6
414.0
147.3
n/a
17.1
$1,080.9
$461.2
381.8
112.7
n/a
14.5
$970.2
$479.4
366.8
108.1
n/a
14.5
$968.8
Cost of service
Cost of handsets & accessories
Gross profit
443.0
228.7
$961.4
421.3
234.3
$840.2
398.7
232.9
$860.3
427.4
219.2
$819.0
425.8
222.4
$765.1
393.0
233.9
$632.7
364.4
203.0
$533.9
364.1
254.3
$462.5
337.6
265.8
$366.8
366.9
274.1
$327.8
561.0
45.5
$354.9
586.0
43.0
$211.3
598.5
43.9
$217.9
602.9
88.2
$127.9
517.2
18.0
$230.0
497.7
34.1
$100.9
456.5
25.9
$51.6
478.3
40.2
($56.0)
422.3
28.5
($83.9)
438.7
44.8
($137.1)
$1,278.2
$347.9
$1,284.6
$225.9
$1,274.0
$239.4
$1,337.7
$140.8
$1,183.4
$227.9
$1,158.7
$100.9
$1,049.7
$51.6
$1,136.9
($56.0)
$1,054.1
($83.9)
$1,105.8
($137.1)
Subscribers
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Peru
Chile
Total
Revenue
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Peru(1)
Chile & eliminations
Total
Cash op ex
Adj. EBITDA ex-Peru
(1) Nextel Peru sold to Entel on Aug. 20, 2013 (announced April 4, 2013) for $400mm or ~$240 / sub.
Source: Company filings; CRT estimates.
Page 14
Telecom
ARPU
CCPU
Monthly contribution per sub
Churn
Average life (months)
Lifetime contribution per sub
$
$
$
CPGA
LCPS / CPGA
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
2.7%
1.7%
4.2%
1.0%
14.9%
2.4%
0.1%
1.6%
10.4%
(0.4%)
30.0%
2.1%
(2.2%)
1.1%
5.9%
5.0%
30.8%
1.4%
(7.0%)
1.1%
3.8%
9.5%
29.7%
0.0%
1.0%
0.4%
3.6%
0.6%
(3.1%)
1.1%
(0.1%)
0.5%
3.8%
n/a
8.2%
1.0%
0.2%
(7.2%)
4.1%
n/a
9.6%
(1.8%)
1.8%
(10.7%)
3.0%
n/a
6.8%
(2.5%)
4.3%
(6.5%)
(1.3%)
n/a
6.4%
(0.5%)
1.4%
(4.0%)
(1.0%)
n/a
2.9%
(0.8%)
42
20
22
2.1%
48.3
1,043
$
$
$
276 $
3.8x
41
19
22
2.2%
46.3
995
$
$
$
301 $
3.3x
40
19
21
2.5%
39.4
845
$
$
$
319 $
2.6x
36
19
17
3.4%
29.4
501
$
$
$
260 $
1.9x
35
19
16
2.6%
38.6
625
$
$
$
240 $
2.6x
36
21
15
2.7%
37.5
559
$
$
$
276 $
2.0x
31
19
12
3.6%
27.9
322
$
$
$
245 $
1.3x
31
22
9
3.9%
26.0
241
$
$
$
344 $
0.7x
29
21
8
3.4%
29.2
225
$
$
$
290 $
0.8x
28
23
5
3.4%
29.5
153
296
0.5x
(17.6%)
0.8%
1.7%
(8.4%)
(22.9%)
(5.6%)
(0.9%)
(13.5%)
(18.8%)
(3.5%)
(0.7%)
(10.6%)
(29.2%)
(15.5%)
(11.4%)
(21.7%)
(25.3%)
(20.5%)
(14.9%)
(21.8%)
(27.5%)
(25.7%)
(32.5%)
(27.1%)
(17.2%)
(27.0%)
(34.1%)
(23.1%)
Cash op ex
Adj. EBITDA(1)
2.0%
(55.5%)
(7.4%)
(34.5%)
(9.8%)
(55.3%)
(17.6%)
(78.5%)
(15.0%)
nm
(10.9%)
nm
(4.6%)
nm
(1) data for 1Q13, 2Q13 and 3Q13 are pro forma for Peru disposition.
Source: Company filings; CRT estimates.
Page 15
Telecom
NII HOLDINGS (NIHD)
Operating Model
($ in millions except subscriber data which is in thousands and per share data)
FY10A(1)
FY11A(1)
1Q12A(1)
2Q12A(1)
3Q12A(1)
4Q12A(1)
FY12A(1)
1Q13A(1)
2Q13A
3Q13A
4Q13A
FY13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
SUBSCRIBER METRICS
Gross subscriber adds
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
2,750
333
1,303
1,078
36
3,077
461
1,498
1,092
26
796
123
364
289
20
865
242
294
289
40
830
217
271
251
91
853
226
276
281
70
3,345
808
1,205
1,110
222
823
220
309
260
34
891
261
309
275
46
880
280
371
186
43
863
281
355
190
37
3,457
1,042
1,344
911
160
918
224
461
195
38
879
239
409
197
34
Disconnects
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
1,395
209
467
704
15
1,699
227
702
757
13
550
64
252
226
8
624
91
291
229
13
749
122
363
209
55
996
162
568
241
25
2,920
440
1,474
904
102
711
157
270
244
40
791
193
314
254
30
1,058
202
362
470
24
1,110
223
285
580
22
3,670
775
1,232
1,548
116
970
250
290
407
23
956
259
350
320
27
Net adds
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
1,355
124
836
374
21
1,378
234
796
335
13
246
59
112
63
12
241
150
3
60
27
81
95
(92)
42
36
(143)
64
(292)
41
45
112
64
38
16
(6)
101
68
(5)
22
16
(52)
(26)
171
(212)
15
(77)
(20)
59
(123)
7
Total Subscribers
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
7,899
1,154
3,319
3,361
65
9,277
1,388
4,115
3,696
78
9,523
1,447
4,227
3,759
90
9,764
1,598
4,230
3,819
117
9,845
1,693
4,138
3,861
153
9,702
1,756
3,846
3,902
198
9,702
1,756
3,846
3,902
198
9,814
1,819
3,885
3,918
192
9,914
1,888
3,880
3,939
208
9,736
1,965
3,888
3,655
228
9,489
2,023
3,958
3,265
244
9,489
2,023
3,958
3,265
244
9,437
1,997
4,129
3,052
259
9,361
1,976
4,188
2,930
266
Churn(2)
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
1.61%
1.59%
1.34%
1.85%
2.32%
1.65%
1.49%
1.57%
1.79%
1.47%
1.95%
1.50%
2.01%
2.02%
3.18%
2.16%
2.00%
2.29%
2.01%
4.20%
2.55%
2.48%
2.89%
1.81%
13.60%
3.40%
3.14%
4.74%
2.07%
4.84%
2.56%
2.33%
3.09%
1.98%
6.14%
2.43%
2.92%
2.33%
2.08%
6.82%
2.67%
3.47%
2.70%
2.15%
5.01%
3.59%
3.50%
3.11%
4.13%
3.67%
3.85%
3.73%
2.42%
5.59%
3.11%
3.19%
3.42%
2.63%
3.60%
4.38%
3.42%
4.15%
2.39%
4.30%
3.05%
3.39%
4.35%
2.81%
3.57%
3.43%
425
368
(269)
206
120
(178)
78
9
(284)
19
(247)
58
70
(390)
15
(213)
268
112
(637)
44
ARPU
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
$58.46
$43.00
$74.57
$55.49
$31.91
$59.01
$42.55
$77.50
$53.13
$29.94
$51.86
$36.75
$62.09
$46.72
$26.94
$46.42
$33.61
$53.49
$44.14
$29.39
$45.61
$33.78
$52.63
$43.74
$25.43
$44.96
$97.66
$53.44
$43.39
$24.35
$47.99
$33.75
$57.70
$44.60
$23.60
$43.83
$28.54
$53.18
$42.71
$21.10
$41.03
$26.82
$48.01
$41.81
$21.93
$35.77
$24.52
$39.95
$37.99
$21.98
$35.45
$22.01
$39.77
$39.15
$23.10
$39.72
$25.38
$45.05
$42.62
$21.24
$32.19
$16.74
$35.10
$39.40
$18.48
$31.67
$16.22
$34.38
$39.44
$17.23
CPGA
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
$310
$217
$250
$395
$347
$197
$284
$413
$297
$171
$223
$392
$301
$112
$256
$431
$319
$106
$264
$464
$315
$107
$293
$455
$308
$118
$256
$435
$277
$94
$204
$487
$276
$82
$207
$505
$245
$81
$185
$568
$344
$83
$334
$729
$286
$84
$234
$559
$290
$66
$272
$578
$296
$72
$291
$575
CCPU
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
$23.78
$19.31
$28.56
$20.85
$29.72
$23.93
$18.02
$28.68
$20.60
$45.80
$22.19
$16.40
$24.75
$20.73
$57.34
$20.95
$15.03
$22.14
$20.76
$66.34
$19.70
$13.26
$21.72
$18.39
$72.60
$20.23
$12.26
$21.47
$20.51
$64.32
$20.65
$12.68
$24.27
$19.61
$41.44
$20.68
$11.43
$23.11
$21.46
$41.83
$21.18
$11.37
$21.05
$24.36
$52.35
$19.73
$11.28
$21.44
$21.44
$34.00
$19.77
$6.95
$21.73
$23.94
$34.46
$20.94
$9.53
$21.45
$26.33
$35.09
$21.25
$7.13
$23.07
$27.24
$29.67
$22.73
$7.25
$24.42
$30.32
$26.63
(1) Pro forma for sale of Nextel Peru which was completed in August, 2013.
(2) Churn may not foot to Company disclosures due to lack of publicly-available monthly data.
Page 16
Telecom
NII HOLDINGS (NIHD)
Operating Model
($ in millions except subscriber data which is in thousands and per share data)
FY10A(1)
FY11A(1)
1Q12A(1)
2Q12A(1)
3Q12A(1)
4Q12A(1)
FY12A(1)
1Q13A(1)
517.5
2,504.5
2,023.1
21.3
$5,066
596.6
3,293.9
2,165.6
25.5
$6,082
156.3
776.9
522.5
6.8
$1,462
153.5
678.6
501.7
9.1
$1,342.9
166.7
660.6
503.9
10.3
$1,341.5
160.2
640.0
505.2
12.8
$1,318.2
636.7
2,756.1
2,033.3
39.0
$5,465.1
153.1
616.6
501.0
12.3
$1,283.1
149.1
559.2
492.7
13.2
$1,214.2
52.3
162.9
83.8
0.2
$299
12.2
47.4
22.0
0.3
$82
11.6
33.9
19.4
1.5
$66.5
11.8
32.6
19.3
2.1
$65.9
12.8
32.3
15.6
3.0
$63.7
48.5
146.3
76.3
7.0
$278.0
13.9
19.2
13.0
1.6
$47.8
14.9
19.4
10.0
1.1
$45.4
16.5
25.4
9.3
(4.3)
$47.0
15.6
34.5
7.6
0.7
$58.5
563.5
2,595.8
2,113.8
20.8
648.9
3,456.8
2,249.4
25.7
168.5
824.3
544.5
7.1
165.1
712.5
521.1
10.7
178.5
693.2
523.2
12.5
173.0
672.3
520.8
15.8
685.2
2,902.4
2,109.6
46.0
167.0
635.9
514.0
13.9
164.0
578.6
502.7
14.3
158.2
491.0
442.0
10.1
$5,293.79
$6,380.82
$1,544.4
$1,409.4
$1,407.4
$1,381.9
$5,743.1
$1,330.8
$1,259.6
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
Cost of service
178.3
820.9
391.7
13.7
$1,404.56
186.7
1,024.7
436.0
34.3
$1,681.69
49.4
250.7
103.1
11.7
$414.9
48.6
225.8
103.6
13.9
$391.9
46.5
222.7
83.3
17.6
$370.1
43.2
210.8
123.3
20.2
$397.4
187.6
909.9
413.5
63.3
$1,574.3
40.1
217.4
123.1
18.5
$399.1
41.3
205.0
124.5
22.1
$393.0
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
Cost of handsets & accessories
74.8
173.3
402.7
5.7
$656.41
88.1
254.8
436.2
5.0
$784.07
20.3
58.9
128.7
2.8
$210.7
20.0
55.1
132.3
6.7
$214.1
19.0
49.9
128.5
11.9
$209.3
20.2
46.3
115.5
13.7
$195.8
79.6
210.3
505.0
35.0
$829.9
21.2
50.6
128.5
6.0
$206.3
SG&A
Provision for doubtful accounts
Impairment & restructuring
Depreciation
Amortization
1,740.1
73.5
0.0
469.9
32.3
2,201.1
159.2
0.0
551.5
36.7
535.4
42.1
9.3
144.3
8.6
545.6
43.1
14.0
150.7
14.4
560.7
87.3
306.5
164.7
15.8
2,167.7
217.3
329.8
601.8
47.8
$4,376.8
$5,414.2
$1,347.6
$1,345.7
$1,347.1
$1,728.1
$5,768.5
Operating Income
plus D&A
plus non-cash asset impairment
plus restructuring and other
OIBDA
917.0
502.2
0.0
0.0
$1,419.2
966.6
588.2
0.0
0.0
$1,554.8
196.8
151.0
0.0
0.0
$347.9
63.7
152.9
9.3
0.0
$226.0
60.3
165.1
14.0
0.0
$239.4
(346.2)
180.4
298.8
7.6
$140.7
(25.4)
649.5
322.2
7.6
$953.9
(79.5)
182.8
85.3
39.3
$227.9
(82.0)
181.6
0.0
1.3
$100.9
(162.8)
178.9
5.9
29.5
$51.6
(186.6)
155.1
0.0
(24.5)
($56.0)
(510.9)
698.3
91.2
45.6
$324.3
(239.1)
157.7
0.0
(2.5)
($83.9)
(504.4)
188.4
135.0
43.9
($137.1)
46.7
238.0
168.7
(105.6)
35.2
183.5
128.6
(121.4)
50.0
162.9
147.8
(121.4)
48.9
90.3
115.9
(114.4)
181.0
674.6
561.1
(462.7)
52.3
157.6
101.2
(83.3)
41.8
107.3
39.4
(87.7)
36.5
56.7
32.1
(73.7)
48.7
3.6
7.1
(115.5)
179.4
325.3
179.9
(360.3)
27.0
(29.1)
(12.5)
(69.2)
21.3
(56.2)
(49.1)
(53.1)
2Q13A
3Q13A
4Q13A
FY13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
100.9
425.8
373.3
13.9
$913.9
96.6
429.0
354.0
13.6
$893.1
60.9
98.7
40.0
(0.9)
$198.7
11.8
35.5
8.6
0.5
$56.3
11.5
50.4
12.9
0.9
$75.6
147.3
502.6
414.0
17.1
636.4
2,208.0
1,872.7
55.4
112.7
461.2
381.8
14.5
108.1
479.4
366.8
14.5
$1,101.3
$1,081
$4,772.6
$970.2
$968.8
40.5
182.0
122.1
19.8
$364.4
18.4
163.5
114.6
19.3
$316
140.4
767.9
484.4
79.7
$1,472.3
26.9
168.2
124.8
17.7
$337.6
26.6
192.3
129.6
18.3
$366.9
21.9
40.2
162.5
9.3
$233.9
24.7
67.8
122.1
2.5
$217.1
23.1
92.2
133.9
5.1
$254
90.9
250.7
547.1
22.9
$911.6
16.1
111.8
133.3
4.7
$265.8
16.6
112.3
142.5
2.7
$274.1
481.0
16.5
124.6
167.5
15.4
497.7
34.1
1.3
166.1
15.5
456.4
25.9
21.3
162.7
16.2
478.3
40.2
23.8
138.0
17.1
1,913.5
116.6
171.0
634.2
64.1
$1,410.4
$1,341.6
$1,264.0
$1,267.5
$5,283.4
OPERATIONS
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
Service & other revenue
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
Handset & accessory revenue
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
46.0
91.3
90.7
(0.5)
$227
526.1
44.8
(0.0)
142.0
9.0
141.7
465.5
432.7
14.4
$1,054.2
131.7
468.0
406.4
16.3
$1,022.4
575.5
2,109.4
1,832.7
56.2
$4,573.9
422.3
28.5
(2.5)
140.6
17.1
$1,209.3
438.7
44.8
160.3
170.3
18.0
$1,473.1
SEGMENT OIBDA
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
148.9
814.2
745.2
(289.1)
168.8
1,047.3
747.2
(408.6)
(1) Pro forma for sale of Nextel Peru which was completed in August, 2013.
Page 17
Telecom
NII HOLDINGS (NIHD)
Operating Model
($ in millions except subscriber data which is in thousands and per share data)
FY10A(1)
FY11A(1)
1Q12A(1)
2Q12A(1)
3Q12A(1)
4Q12A(1)
FY12A(1)
1Q13A(1)
2Q13A
3Q13A
4Q13A
FY13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
917.0
(335.9)
28.3
52.4
(18.7)
(269.9)
373.3
NA
$373.3
169.7
$2.20
966.6
(311.7)
34.1
(37.3)
(37.8)
(351.2)
262.7
(37.5)
$225.2
171.2
$1.32
196.8
(82.7)
6.1
(14.6)
(9.2)
(70.7)
25.8
(12.3)
$13.6
171.8
$0.08
63.7
(80.8)
5.9
(38.8)
(5.7)
(29.7)
(85.3)
(18.2)
($103.5)
171.5
($0.60)
60.3
(103.9)
13.2
10.7
(7.3)
(34.7)
(61.7)
(20.7)
($82.4)
171.6
($0.48)
(346.2)
(98.2)
8.6
(11.4)
(6.1)
(23.0)
(476.4)
(116.5)
($592.9)
171.7
($3.45)
(25.4)
(365.5)
33.9
(54.0)
(28.3)
(158.1)
(597.5)
(167.8)
($765.2)
171.7
($4.46)
(79.5)
(109.7)
6.5
23.2
(4.8)
(21.6)
(185.8)
(21.7)
($207.5)
172.0
($1.21)
(82.0)
(150.2)
9.0
(104.5)
(8.3)
(48.8)
(384.9)
(11.5)
($396.4)
172.4
($2.30)
(162.8)
(135.0)
9.3
(4.8)
4.5
(4.3)
(293.1)
(6.8)
($299.9)
172.4
($1.74)
(186.6)
(144.3)
18.6
(57.6)
(4.4)
(371.3)
(745.6)
(0.2)
($745.8)
172.1
($4.33)
(510.9)
(539.2)
43.4
(143.7)
(13.0)
(446.1)
(1,609.4)
(40.2)
($1,649.6)
172.1
($9.58)
(239.1)
(140.2)
20.1
(7.2)
(4.7)
(5.0)
(376.1)
0.0
($376.1)
172.4
($2.18)
(504.4)
(120.4)
12.8
9.7
1.7
(28.7)
(629.2)
5.9
($623.3)
172.4
($3.62)
$34.68
62.1
$2,155
6.9x
$35.09
60.7
$2,128
6.1x
$29.68
51.2
$1,520
5.1x
$25.47
46.4
$1,181
3.9x
$25.91
39.3
$1,017
3.2x
$24.73
29.4
$728
2.3x
$27.34
39.0
$1,066
3.5x
$23.15
41.2
$953
3.4x
$19.85
37.4
$743
2.7x
$16.04
27.8
$447
1.8x
$15.68
26.0
$407
1.2x
$18.79
31.4
$589
2.1x
$10.94
29.3
$320
1.1x
$8.94
29.5
$264
0.9x
9%
75%
-20%
2%
765%
72%
93%
110%
19%
704%
5%
27%
-7%
6%
154%
3%
79%
-15%
-10%
69%
29%
145%
7%
8%
399%
3%
26%
-8%
4%
114%
3%
8%
5%
-5%
14%
27%
111%
8%
11%
131%
2%
18%
-8%
3%
78%
6%
29%
37%
-26%
-53%
41%
66%
0%
125%
-56%
-1%
16%
-6%
-5%
49%
1%
24%
29%
-32%
-47%
11%
37%
-50%
141%
-14%
-2%
15%
3%
-16%
23%
3%
29%
12%
-18%
-28%
26%
76%
-16%
71%
14%
-2%
15%
3%
-16%
23%
12%
2%
49%
-25%
12%
36%
60%
7%
67%
-42%
-4%
10%
6%
-22%
35%
-1%
-8%
32%
-28%
-26%
21%
34%
11%
26%
-10%
-6%
5%
8%
-26%
28%
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Other
Total Operating Revenue
6%
-16%
-6%
79%
-10%
-1%
-23%
-6%
97%
-14%
-1%
-19%
-4%
34%
-11%
-11%
-29%
-16%
-19%
-22%
-15%
-25%
-21%
8%
-22%
-7%
-24%
-11%
20%
-17%
-33%
-27%
-26%
4%
-27%
-34%
-17%
-27%
1%
-23%
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Total Adjusted OIBDA
7%
-36%
-25%
-39%
12%
-34%
-40%
-34%
19%
-41%
-69%
-55%
-27%
-65%
-78%
-78%
0%
-96%
-94%
nm
-1%
-52%
-68%
-66%
-48%
nm
nm
nm
-49%
nm
nm
nm
5%
-8%
3%
-1%
-6%
-18%
10%
-8%
-6%
-11%
18%
-2%
-5%
-18%
9%
-10%
-21%
-14%
0%
-8%
-9%
-15%
9%
-7%
-25%
3%
-4%
-4%
-29%
14%
-10%
-5%
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Total Cash Opex
(1) Pro forma for sale of Nextel Peru which was completed in August, 2013
Page 18
Telecom
Organizational Chart:
Overview of preliminary debt, cash and intercompany balances as of June 30, 2014(1),(2)
($ in '000s)
Note: Overview only includes, and total balances only reflect, net balances greater than $25 million.
Source: Reproduced from Company disclosures.
Page 19
Telecom
EOP Subscribers
FY13A(2)
9.5
FY14E
7.4
FY15E
8.8
FY16E
10.9
FY17E
12.8
FY18E
14.5
Total Revenue(3)
y/y growth
$4,574
-16%
$3,578
-22%
$3,434
-4%
$4,222
23%
$5,120
21%
$5,862
14%
4,386
$188
4%
3,905
($327)
-9%
3,277
$157
5%
3,611
$611
14%
4,022
$1,098
21%
4,358
$1,504
26%
($884)
63
1,244
(64)
$547
(574)
($27)
(964)
1,911
$920
($622)
(347)
65
(35)
($1,266)
(367)
($1,633)
(84)
59
($1,657)
($646)
254
(55)
0
($291)
(195)
($486)
(24)
162
($348)
($620)
25
(58)
(17)
($61)
(194)
($255)
(94)
0
($349)
($547)
(9)
(58)
(45)
$439
(180)
$259
(248)
0
$11
($490)
(66)
(58)
(107)
$783
(129)
$654
(325)
0
$329
$2,443
(1,657)
$786
$786
(348)
$438
$438
(349)
$89
$89
11
$100
$100
329
$429
Beginning cash
plus free cash flow after financing
Ending cash(7)
$1,592
920
$2,443
Page 20
Telecom
EOP Subscribers
FY13A
3.3
FY14E
2.8
FY15E
3.4
FY16E
4.7
FY17E
5.8
FY18E
6.9
Total Revenue(2)
y/y growth
$1,833
-10%
$1,377
-25%
$1,345
-2%
$1,747
30%
$2,191
25%
$2,534
16%
1,692
$141
8%
1,498
($121)
nm
1,469
($124)
nm
1,598
$149
9%
1,718
$473
22%
1,866
$668
26%
($358)
66
287
(7)
$129
(68)
$61
(336)
166
323
$214
($247)
18
60
(10)
($300)
(75)
($375)
(14)
45
54
($289)
($163)
(22)
(4)
0
($313)
(91)
($404)
(16)
29
350
($41)
($203)
14
(7)
0
($47)
(89)
($136)
(19)
0
155
$0
($243)
28
(7)
0
$252
(84)
$168
(64)
0
0
$103
($246)
(34)
(7)
(0)
$381
(63)
$318
(100)
0
0
$219
Beginning cash
plus free cash flow after financing
Ending cash
$216
214
$430
$430
(289)
$141
$141
(41)
$100
$100
0
$100
$100
103
$203
$203
219
$422
(1) reflects exchange rate of 12.92 MXN/USD in 2H14, 12.50 MXN/USD in 2015, 12.60 MXN/USD in 2016, 12.80 MXN/USD in 2017
and 12.90 MXN/USD in 2018. Projections as of 14-Aug-14 and reflect 2Q14 actual results.
(2) reflects service and other revenue, excluding handset and accessories
(3) assumes restructuring of obligations under local debt facilities
(4) projections contemplate intercompany funding from LuxCo in form of equity contributions
Source: company filings.
Page 21
Telecom
EOP Subscribers
FY13A
4.0
FY14E
4.6
FY15E
5.5
FY16E
6.2
FY17E
7.0
FY18E
7.7
Total Revenue(2)
y/y growth
$2,109
-23%
$1,800
-15%
$2,089
16%
$2,474
18%
$2,929
18%
$3,328
14%
1,822
$287
14%
1,856
($56)
nm
1,724
$365
17%
1,929
$545
22%
2,221
$708
24%
2,409
$919
28%
($430)
16
354
(1)
$228
(158)
$70
(435)
145
426
$206
($307)
(302)
(28)
(0)
($693)
(130)
($823)
(34)
14
515
($328)
($469)
270
(51)
0
$115
(107)
$8
(8)
133
0
$133
($404)
11
(51)
(17)
$84
(106)
($22)
(75)
0
0
($97)
($290)
(36)
(51)
(45)
$285
(96)
$189
(184)
0
0
$6
($230)
(32)
(51)
(107)
$499
(66)
$433
(225)
0
0
$208
Beginning cash
plus free cash flow after financing
Ending cash
$222
206
$428
$428
(328)
$100
$100
133
$233
$233
(97)
$136
$136
6
$141
$141
208
$349
(1) reflects exchange rate of 2.38 BRL/USD. Forecast was built in 2Q14 and was based on 1Q14 actual results.
(2) service and other revenue, excluding handset and accessories.
(3) reflects $192M deposit securing certain performance bonds relating to obligations to deploy spectrum in Brazil in FY14.
A portion of deposit will be returned when certain performance requirements are certified by Anatel; any remaining
requirements for cash collateral are expected to be eliminated when the performance bonds are renewed in 2015.
(4) assumes restructuring of obligations under local debt facilities.
(5) Business Plan assumes intercompany funding from LuxCo in form of intercompany notes
Source: Company filings.
Page 22
Telecom
Key Investment Risks
Nextel's balance sheet is significantly over-leveraged; near-term bankruptcy filing likely. With negative EBITDA and roughly $5.8 billion of on-balance
sheet debt, Nextel recently entered the grace period rather than make scheduled coupon payments on $2.4 billion of bonds. We expect the Company to
announce a pre-negotiated bankruptcy plan by the end of the grace period (September 14, 2014). A freefall bankruptcy cannot be ruled out.
Nextel conducts its operations exclusively in developing markets: Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. Nextel is thus exposed to all manner of Emerging Market
risk including foreign currency fluctuations, capital controls, political risk and heightened regulatory risk, relative to the United States. We expect US- and
Luxembourg-based holding companies to file for bankruptcy in US courts, but local operating companies could be forced to file for bankruptcy in Latin
American markets. Such a development would create additional risks for US-based creditors, in our view, and would likely become a major deterrent to
prospective US-based investors.
Nextel faces intense competition from larger, well-capitalized competitors. Even with a restructured balance sheet, the Company may not be able to
survive on a standalone basis.
Nextel will likely be forced to adopt a standalone restructuring plan. Although management and its advisors have been exploring strategic options
including potential sales of its primary assets and operations, we have seen no evidence suggesting credible buyers are preparing to bid.
A standalone plan would require significant capital investment and generate substantial near-term cash burn. Continued investment in network upgrades
and improved customer service may not yield substantial or even positive return on invested capital.
REQUIRED DISCLOSURES
The recommendations and guidance expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal recommendations and guidance of the research
analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report
No part of the compensation received by the analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations and guidance expressed in this report. Direct or indirect analyst compensation may be based on performancerelated considerations associated with the recommendations and guidance expressed by the analyst in this report
The research analyst primarily responsible for the preparation of this report received compensation that is based upon CRT Capital Group LLCs total
business revenues, including revenues derived from CRTs investment banking business
Rating
Buy
Fair Value
Sell
Meaning
Expected rate of return on investment at current prices levels is above that rate required,
in CRT's view, to undertake the attendant risks perceived- positive risk/reward investment
balance.
Expected rate of return on investment at current prices levels is in line with that rate
required, in CRT's view, to undertake the attendant risks perceived- equitable/reward
investment balance.
Expected rate of return on investment at current prices levels is below that rate required,
in CRT's view, to undertake the attendant risks perceived- negative risk/reward investment
balance.
As of the time of this publication, CRT Capital Group LLC makes a market in the securities of NII Holdings Inc..
Page 23
Telecom
Ratings Percentages
As of August 25, 2014
Buy 62.69%
Fair Value 35.82%
Sell 1.49%
Valuations are based on estimates using traditional industry methods including, inter alia, analysis of earnings multiples, discounted cash flow calculations
and net asset value assessments. Price targets should be considered in the context of all prior CRT research published in connection with the subject
issuer, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Risks that
may impede achievement of the stated price target, if any, include, but are not limited to, broad market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen
changes in the subject companys fundamentals or business trends.
OTHER DISCLOSURES
This report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. This report is published
solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The
securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This report is based on information obtained
from sources believed to be reliable but is neither guaranteed to be accurate nor intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities,
markets or developments referred to in the report. Recipients should not use this report as a substitute for the prudent exercise of their own judgment.
Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and CRT is under no obligation to update or keep current the information
contained herein. CRT and/or its directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time
make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may have acted or may act in the future as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial
instruments discussed in this report. CRT may rely on informational barriers such as Chinese Walls to control the flow of information situated in one or
more areas within CRT into other units, divisions or groups within CRT.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Options, derivative products and futures are not suitable for all investors due to the high
degree of risk associated with trading these instruments. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely effect the value, price or income of any security
or related instrument described in this report.
CRT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. CRT specifically prohibits the
re-distribution of this report by third parties, via the internet or otherwise, and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of such third parties in this
respect. Additional information is available upon request. Clients who wish to effect transactions should contact their sales representative.
2014 CRT Capital Group LLC. All rights Reserved. The Copyright Act of 1976 prohibits the reproduction by photocopy machine or any other means of all
or any portion of this issue except with permission of the publisher. 262 Harbor Drive, Stamford, CT 06902
Page 24
Telecom
Analyst
Phone
(203) 569-4345
ssingh@crtllc.com
(203) 569-4351
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