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18

, ,
, .

.

,
.
, .
, .
(
).
: (, 2),
2 .

0 : = 0
1 : > 0
, , c
,
= P ( H0 H0 )
= P ( X > c = 0)
=P[

X
c
>
= 0 ]

n
n
c 0

=P[Z>

374

0
,

c 0

1-

= 1-a

,
c = 0 + 1a

, 0 ,
X > 0 + 1 a

.
: , ,
0
,
X 0
Z0 =
> Z1-
n
: , 0 (0 statistic)

X 0
n


. ( 0
Z0 =

375



).
,

, . (,
0 0, X
X / n ).
0-
- (-tests).
0-

,
.
,

0 : = 0
1 : < 0
0
X 0
Z0 =
< - Z1-
n

[, X < 0 1
].
n

= -1- 0

376

, ,

0 : = 0
1 : 0

/2

/2

-1-/2
0
1-/2
0 ,
Z < - Z1-/2 Z > Z1-/2
[
X < 0

1
2

X > 0 + 1

/2

]
n

/2

c1

0
377

c2

:
( )

( ) 700 . ,

.
2 = (46.14)2.
,
, 10
.
X = 689.8 .
,

= 0.05;
: ,
,
.
(
)



.
,
0 : = 700
1 : < 700

=0.05

-Z.95

0
378

,
0 ,
Z0 =
=

X 0

680.8 700
46.14 10
= -0.699

Z>-Z.95
0.
:
368gr .
,
.
1.
,
25 .


364.1gr. ( x =364.1gr). M

;
2.
(
368gr ) .

;
( ,

= 15 gr).
= 0.05.

379

:
1.
,
H0 : = 368
H1 : 368

,
X 0 364.1 368
= 130
.
=
Z0 =
n
15 25

0.025

0.025

Z.025
= -Z0.975 = -1.96.

Z0.975 = 1.96

,


Z> Z.975 = 1.96

Z<- Z.975
Z>Z.975,

. ,

380


.

368gr.
2.
, :
H0 : = 368
H1 : < 368

0.05

Z.05 = - Z.95 = - 1.645


,
Z>- Z.95 ,

. ,


(

368gr).

,
,
381


.

.
: ( ).
,
0: = 10

1: > 10

4 [ (,4)].
X <12.5, 0,
X 12.5, 0. ( 12.5
). n = 4.
, ,
= P( H0 |H0) = P ( X 12.5 = 10)
=P[

12.5
X

= 10]

n
n

=P[

125
. 10
.)
] = P ( 25
2 4

= 1 - (2.5) = 1 - 0.9938 = 0.0062


,
= P ( 01 )
= P ( X < 12.5 > 10)
1-
10 .
: ,

382

.


.




,

( ).
:
1.
.
2.
, , ,

.
, ,
. ,
,
.
, ,
,
.
,


2 (| Z1 | + | Z 0 |)
n=
| 1 0 |

383

:
(
)
0 1 , ,

0 1 z-
, :
. (one-sided upper tail test)
(0 : 0 , 1 : > 0 )
Z0 = Z1-

Z1 = Z

. (one-sided lower tail test)


(0 : 0 , 1 : < 0 )
Z0 = Z

Z1 = 1-

. (two-sided test)
(0 : = 0 , 1 : 0 )
Z0 = Z1-/2

Z1 = Z


.
:

.
,
.

1100 .
.

1100
384

. ,

0 : 1100
1 : > 1100
:
=0.01 = 0 =1100.
z0
z0 = z1- = z0.99 = 2.326

=1=1250,

, 0.10
0 .

P (0 | =1 =1250) = 0.10

=250
.
=0.10
0.10
z0 = z0.10 = -1.282
z.
z1.

z1 = z = z0.10 = - 1.282
,

( )

x =

250
=
n
n

,

385

0 =1100 1

|0 - 1| = 2.326 x + 1.282 x =
= 3.608 x
,

150 = 3.608
n
n, n=36.


,

.
:

.
, ,
z0 = z1- = z0.99 = 2.326

|z0 | = 2.326

z1 = z = z0.10 = -1.282
|z1 | = 1.282
|1 - 0 | = | 1250 - 1100 | = 150
= 250

, ,
( 250) 2 (1.282 + 2.326 ) 2
n=
= 36
(150 ) 2

386

: ,
, .
,
|z0| |z1|, ,
n. ,
1 0, |1 - 0|
.
,
( , ,
, ),
n .
:
0 1 |1 - 0 |.
0
|z0 | x
, 1
|z1 | x
:
|1 - 0 | =|z1 | x + |z0 | x =
=(|z1 | + |z0 |) x

x =

|1 - 0 | = (|z1 | + |z0|)

n
.
: ,

0 : 368
387

1 : < 368
80% , 0.8
( 368gr),
=1=360gr.

0.05.
=15gr;

|z0 | = |z0.05| = 1.645
,

|z1 | = |z0.80| = 0.84


(15) 2 (1.645 + 0.84) 2
n=
(368 360 ) 2

,
n = 22
, 22
0.05 I 80%
368gr

360gr.
p-
( )


, p-
:

388

H1 : < 0

H0 : =0

H1 : > 0

z0

z0
H1 : 0

1
p
2

1
p
2

- z0

z0

z0
0
. ,
z0 =

x 0

0-

389

X 0

Z0 =

:
1. 1 : < 0
p- = P(Z0 z0 )
2. 1 : > 0
p- = P(Z0 z0 )
3. 1 : 0
p- = P(|Z0 | z0 )
:


368 gr. (0: =368).
, -
,
z0 = -1.30

, (
1: <368), p- (
) ,
P(Z -1.30) = 0.0968
(
).
, , (0: =368)

0.0968.
, ,

390

p-=0.0968

z = -1.30

0.0968,

.
=0.05
p- ( < p) '
.
: 0-
z0 = -2,
( ) . (2
0 (368gr)
1.30 0).
-1.30
z0-
( z0 = -1.30)
.
p-

,
, .

.
391

.

.
: 0-
, p-.

p-.
:
0- .


.
, ,

( p-).
, ,
p- 0.001 (1 1000).
, .
,
. 1 1000
(0.001)
. 1
1000 ,
,
( ). , 1 1000

, ,
,
. ,
, .
, p-

.
392


.
: ,
p- .


.

.
. p-
,
,
.

(1: 368), p- ,
p- = P( -1.30) + P( 1.30)
= 2 (0.0968)
= 0.1936
,
0.1936, (
) .
=0.05 ,
p-
,
,
.
:
p-
(0: = 0).
.
393

(0: 0 1: 0),
p-

.
,
0 : 0
1 : < 0

= max P( 0 | 0 )
= max P( 0 | 0 )
= P( 0 | = 0 )
,
p- = maxP (X x | H 0 )

= maxP (X x | 0 )

= P (X x | = 0 )

= P(Z 0 z 0 )
.


,

,
, ,
, .
.
, 2 (
) .

n

S2 =

(X
i =1

i X)

n
394

, S2 2 .
2
n

S*2 =

(X
i =1

X)

n 1
n .
,
(, 2 ),
T=

X
X
= *
tn-1
S
S
n 1
n



.

0 : = 0
1 : 0

.
,
X .
0 0 0
(, 0 ). ,
c1 c2
. (

.
).

395

/2

/2

c1

c2

,
= P(H 0 | H 0 ) = P(X < c1 X > c 2 | = 0 )

= 0

X 0 c1 0 X 0 c 2 0
*
= P *
< *
> *

S
S
S

S
n
n
n
n

c1 0
c2 0
= P T0 < *
T0 > *

S
S

n
n

X c1 X c 2
*
= P *
< *
> *
S
S
S
S
n
n
n
n


, ,

396

/2

/2

-t n-1, 1-/2
= t n-1, /2

t n-1, 1-/2

c1 0
= -t n -1, 1- /2 ,
S*
n

c2 0
= t n -1, 1- /2
S*
n

c1 c2, ,
c1 = 0 t

c2 = 0 + t

n -1, 1

n -1, 1

S*
n

S*
n

,
,
S*
S*
X < 0 t
X > 0 + t

n -1, 1
n -1, 1
n
n
2
2
,
, ,

0 > t n-1, 1-/2


0 < -t n-1, 1-/2
397

:
.


(n30). ,
tn-1.
:
. 2
(S*2),
. S2,
,
S, n 1 (
n ).
:
,


15gr.

s=17.3gr
0 : = 368 gr
1 : 368 gr
= 0.05.
, n = 25 ,
t0 =

364.1 368
= 1.127
17.3
25

, ,
t24,.975 = 2.0639

.

=0.05.
398



. ,
,
0 : = 0
1 : < 0

-t n-1, 1-
X < 0 t n 1, 1

S*
n

, ,
0 < -t n-1, 1-
,
0 : = 0
1 : > 0
,

399

t n-1, 1-
X > 0 + t n 1, 1

, ,
0 > t n-1, 1-
:
.
,

,
0.5 .
, 6
.
: 0.46, 0.61, 0.52, 0.48, 0.57 0.54
.
=0.05
.
:
,
:
0 : = 0.05
1 : > 0.05
400

x = 0.53 s* = 0.0559
,
:
x
0.53 0.5
t0 = * 0 =
= 1.31
0.0559
s
6
n
t ,
t5,.95 = 2.015
,


0.05. ,

.
SPSS

SPSS :
.. VAR00001
Statistics Compare means.
One sample T test

(VAR00001) test variable
Test value
(.
0.5) .
SPSS
One-Sample Statistics

N
VAR00001

Mean
.5300

401

Std.
Deviation
5.586E-02

Std. Error
Mean
2.280E-02

One-Sample Test
Test Value = 0.5

VAR00001

t
1.316

df
5

Sig.
(2-tailed)
.245

Mean
Difference
3.000E-02

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
Upper
-2.86E-02 8.862E-02

o ,
(VAR00001), (),
(Mean), (Std. Deviation)
(Std. Error Mean).
,
, (t),
(df), p- (Sig. (2tailed)),
, . X -0 (Mean Difference), 95%
(95% Confidence
Interval of the Difference).
: SPSS p-
, , , p-
p- .
, p-
.
0.245/2=0.1225.
Minitab

MINITAB
:
Data,
.. C1.
Stat, Basic Statistics.
1-Sample t
402

,

Variables.
Test mean

(.
0.5)
Alternative,
. (. 0),
not equal. , >0, greater
than, <0, less than.
, greater than
.
Minitab :
TEST OF MU = 0.5000 VS MU G.T. 0.5000

C1

MEAN

0.5300

STDEV SE MEAN
0.0559

0.0228

P VALUE

1.32

0.12

output,
.
(C1), (),
(Mean), (Stdev),
(SE Mean),
(t) p- (p-value).
p-
( )

, p-
( )
.

403

,
, ,
, ,
t0 = 1.31. p- '
,
, :
p = P (t5 > 1.31 |H0 ) = P (t5 > 1.31 | = 0.5)

p-
t
. ,
t,

t. ,
0.25 ( t5 = 0.7267) 0.1
( t5 = 1.4759).
p-


.

. , ,
, p- (
) .
,
Statgraphics p = 0.2454. ,
0.2454

.
:
(0 : 0 0 : 0),
p-
.
404





,
.
0: =0
( p-)
p-
P(Z0z0)
<0

X 0
Z0 =
~(0,1)
/ n

p-
(|0|z0)

p-
(|0|t0)

>0
p-
P(Z0z0)

p-
P(0t0)
<0

X
T0 = * 0 ~tn-1
S/ n

1
>0
p-
P(T0t0)

405



,
,
,
,
(np, npq)
appr
.
Bernoulli
p ,
X
p
X np
n
Z=
=
npq
pq
n

, p =

(0, 1)

appr .

X

n


.
,
,

.

406

H1 : p > p0

H0 : p = p0
H1 : p < p0

H1 : p p0

X
p0
n
Z0 =
> Z 1
p 0q 0
n

X
p0
n
Z0 =
< Z 1
p 0q 0
n

Z0 > Z1-/2

pq n
X
> p0 + Z1 0 0
n
n

pq n
X
< p0 + Z1 0 0
n
n

pq n
X
< p0 + Z1/2 0 0
n
n

0 < 1-/2

pq n
X
> p0 + Z1/2 0 0
n
n

-Z1-

Z1-

/2

-1-/2

/2

1-/2

: p- ( )

407


.
:

. ,

0.10
. ,
200
11
.
;
: ,
0 : p = 0.10
H1 : p < 0.10
,
,
0.055 0.10
0.045
z0 =
=
= 2.12
(.10)(.90)
0.00045
200
,
np 5 n(1-p) 5.
) , ,
=0.05,
,
z = -2.12 < -z.950 = -1.645
0.05


0.10.

408