IMPACT COMPARISON

Antonucci

• Meta-risk comparison
o Terms of risk analysis should start in the block – 2NC
• Compare
o Compare not “pimp”
o Compare your level of risk to theirs
• Choose
o Counter to checklist Nate dreads
 Don’t have to allocate same time to each standard
 Favor the one that is your best argument
 Explain why probability or magnitude are the best filters for risk assessment
• Learn
o Don’t just script – be able to adjust blocks on the fly
o Internal scripting – knowing your arguments
o Read cards on risk analysis but don’t rely on them
• Formula for determining risk
o Magnitude x Probability = Impact
o Magnitude
 Indo-pack war = isolated, global econ collapse = larger theater
 Value to Life calculation
o Probability
 4 v. 1 nuclear war(s) – each has their own probability of extinction
 Different degrees of probability
• Qualifications of ev comparison – more probable
• # of i/l – each individual i/l has their own risk
• Difficult to predict if given harms will resolve themselves in the future
o Can’t predict technology
o Can predict war b/c rely on same mechanism
• Empirics are your friend
• Predictive v. systemic impacts
• Intentionality
o Probability of actor making the argument
 Acute impacts can be checked, chronic impacts are stealth and go under
the radar until it is too late (frog in boiling water analogy)
• Good Links
• Match of lack of safeguards in East Asia
o # of actors with nuclear capabilities
o Complex security equation
o Timeframe
 As the timeframe increases, the probability of the even decreases because it allows time for actors
to intervene
 More difficult to predict events under a longer timeframe (forecast analogy)
 Existentialism – buy humanity more time = favorable
 Figure out in the 2ar who has the faster timeframe
 Magnitude – discount rate… instant gratification timeframe inherently affects magnitude because
the instant something happens – the higher the magnitude
• Case – Disad interaction
o One impact solves the other – turn
o X scenario evokes y scenario
 o In a world of x impact, y impact can’t occur b/c x has already destroyed everything
• Rationalism
o Assess actor desire / probability to invoke said impact
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