Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Coverage
• Capital Budgeting … building blocks
• Alternative decision criteria
What long term investments should the firm take on ?----- capital budgeting
– Investments like :
• Plant and equipment, new projects
• A new retail outlet for Pantaloons or Walmart
• A new software for an Infosys or a Microsoft
• A fleet of new Aircrafts for an airlines company
– Issues Involved :
• What are the time, quantum and risk of the cash flows vis-a vis-
cost involved in the projects ?
• Is it Profitable for the company to go for the project?
• Whether the investment decision is going to create value for the
company?
Types of Projects
Mutually exclusive : A or B
– Example :
– A firm may own a block of land, which is large enough to establish a
shoe manufacturing business or a steel fabrication plant. The selection of
one will exclude the acceptance of the other.
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Independent : A or B or A+B
– Example :
– The introduction of a new product line (soap) and at the same time the
replacement of a machine, which is currently producing a different
product (plastic bottles).
– STEP II :
– The second step is to estimate the required return for projects of this risk
level, i.e “the opportunity cost of capital”.
Opportunity Cost of Capital : This is the discount rate that is used to discount
the expected cash flows from an investment and to find the NPV.
It is the opportunity cost of taking the project, (Why?)………..
this is the return the shareholders would have earned themselves by investing
in financial assets, if the project was not taken and the cash distributed as
dividends to shareholders.
STEP III
• the third step is to find the present value of the cash flows, by discounting
them by the opportunity cost of capital, and subtract the initial investment.
• So NPV = PV of the expected cash flows from the project ( discounted at
Opportunity cost of capital) – the PV of the investment made
PV – Decision Rule
If the NPV is positive, accept the project
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A positive NPV means that the project is expected to add value to the firm and
will therefore increase the wealth of the owners (why?)
Since the goal of the financial manager is to increase owner’s wealth, NPV is
a direct measure of how well this project will meet their goal.
Example 1):
Suppose you are looking at a new project and you have estimated the
following cash flows:
– Year 0: CF = -165,000 (i.e initial investment required)
– Year 1: CF = 63,120;
– Year 2: CF = 70,800;
– Year 3: CF = 91,080;
12,627.42
Do we accept or reject the project?
--Accept, since NPV > 0
Example 2 :
Suppose we are asked to decide whether a new consumer product should be
launched. Based on projected sales and costs, we expect that the cash flows
over the five year life of the project will be $2000, in the first two years,$4000
in the next two, and $5000 in the last year. It will cost about $10,000 to begin
production. We use a 10% discount rate to evaluate such new products.
Should we go for the new product?
Soln :
PV of the cash flows expected = (2000/1.1 + 2000/1.12 +4000/1.13 +4000/1.14
+5000/1.15 ) = $12,313
NPV = $12313 – investment = $12,313-$10,000 = $2,313 >0
So accept project.
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Soln :
During the first 2 years cash generated = $300 and remaining amount of cash
to be recovered for full payback = $200 which should happen sometime
during year 2 and year 3. The exact time ( assuming uniform inflow of cash
during the year 3)= 200/500 = 0.4 years.
Thus payback period for this project = 2.4 years or roughly 2 years and 5
months.
To find out let’s examine the following 3 projects, all having the same
payback of 3 years i.e they should be equally attractive as per payback rule.
Problem 1) Timing of cash flows within the payback period not considered:
If we compare projects A and B, at 15% discount rate, NPV of A = 7.26 while
that of B =13.62 so B is more attractive than A although as per payback rule
they are equally attractive. Why does this happen ?
Because, payback method does not take into account any time value of money
.
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Project B has larger cash inflows early in its life compared to A. Payback
method completely ignores this.
Problem 3) Biggest problem is to select a proper cut off payback period. There
is no objective basis or economic rationale for selection of the same.
The cash flows occurring at the later part of a project’s life are always more
uncertain. Thus arguably the payback period adjusts for the extra riskiness
of such cash flows, but it does so in a rather crude manner by totally
ignoring them.
How long does it take the project to “pay back” its initial investment
taking the time value of money into account?
Compute the present value of each cash flow and then determine how long it
takes to pay back on a discounted basis.
Compute the PV for each cash flow and determine the payback period using
discounted cash flows
– Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120/1.121 = 108,643
– Year 2: 108,643 – 70,800/1.122 = 52,202
– Year 3: 52,202 – 91,080/1.123 = -12,627 project pays back in year 3
– So we do not accept.
– But NPV = + 12,627 … still we reject.
But if a project pays back on a discounted basis ever, with some cash flows
still remaining, it is bound to have a positive NPV( assuming that all the cash
flows from the project are positive) and should increase the value of the
company.( Why ? ) …
This is because by definition, the NPV is zero when the sum of the discounted
cash flows equals the initial investment. So if a project pays back on a
discounted basis, then some cash flows may still remain which must add up to
give a positive NPV.
This implies that if we use a discounted payback, we won’t be accidentally
taking up any projects with a negative NPV. (But we may reject some
with positive NPV like the one we just discussed.).
– Does not accept negative NPV investments when all future cash flows
are positive
– Biased towards liquidity
Disadvantages
– May reject positive NPV investments
– Requires an arbitrary cutoff point
– Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff point
– Biased against long-term projects, such as R&D and new products
The internal rate of return for this project is 19.44% (found by trial and error
just like the YTM of a bond)
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If we graph NPV versus discount rate, we can see the IRR as the x-axis
intercept… the discount rate that makes the NPV=0
NPV
16% $11.65
20% ($1.74) $20.00
24% ($12.88) $0.00
28% ($22.17) ($20.00)-1% 9% 19% 29% 39%
32% ($29.93) ($40.00)
36% ($36.43) ($60.00)
40% ($41.86) Discount rate
Example:
A project has a total up front cost of $435.44.The cash flows are $100 in the
first year,$200 in the second year and $300 in the third year. What’s the IRR
of the project? If we require an 18% return should we take this investment?
– The IRR(23%) is greater than the cost capital(10%). Thus, the IRR rule
indicates you should accept the deal.
Delayed Investments
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– Since the NPV is negative, the NPV rule indicates you should reject the
deal.
When the benefits of an investment occur before the costs, the NPV is an
increasing function of the discount rate. The normal IRR rule is therefore
completely reversed.
Nonexistent IRR
Assume now that you are offered $1 million per year if you agree to go on a
speaking tour for the next three years. If you lecture, you will not be able to
write the book( so you do not receive the $1 million upfront). Thus your net
cash flows every year would look as follows (1 million -500,000 opportunity
cost = 500,000)
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Nonexistent IRR
500, 000 500, 000 500, 000
NPV = + +
1 + r (1 + r ) 2
(1 + r )3
– By setting the NPV equal to zero and solving for r, we find the IRR. In
this case, however, there is no discount rate that will set the NPV equal
to zero.
No IRR exists because the NPV is positive for all values of the discount rate.
Thus the IRR rule cannot be used.
Multiple IRRs
Now assume the lecture deal fell through. You inform the publisher that it
needs to increase its offer before you will accept it. The publisher then agrees
to make royalty payments of $20,000 per year forever, starting once the book
is published in three years.
If the opportunity cost of capital is either below 4.723 % or above 19.619 % , you
should accept the deal. Between 4.723 % and 19.619 % , the book deal has a
negative NPV. Since your opportunity cost of capital is 10 % , you should reject
the deal.
As per Descarte’s rule of signs : the number of IRRs will be the same as the
number of changes of signs in cash flows i.e from negative to positive or positive
to negative( or less than it by a multiple of 2).
A has a higher total cash flow, but it pays back at a slower rate than B. So its NPV
is higher at low discount rates but as the discount rates increase, the effect of the
distant cash flows is reduced to a great extent and the NPV of B starts exceeding its
NPV.
$160.00
$140.00 NPV Profiles
$120.00 IRR for A = 19.43%
IRR for B = 22.17%
$100.00 Crossover Point = 11.8%
$80.00
A
NPV
$60.00
B
$40.00
$20.00
$0.00
($20.00) 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
($40.00)
Discount Rate
The preferred project in this case depends on the discount rate, not the IRR
$5,000.00
Project A
$4,000.00
Project B
$3,000.00 the Crossover Rate
Calculating
10.55% = crossover rate
$2,000.00
$1,000.00 16.04% = IRRA
NPV
$0.00
($1,000.00) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
($3,000.00)
($4,000.00)
Discount rate
Calculating the Crossover Rate
$3,000.00
$2,000.00
10.55% = IRR
$1,000.00
A-B
NPV
$0.00
B-A
($1,000.00) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
($2,000.00)
($3,000.00)
Discount rate
It says that at 10.55% discount rate, we are indifferent between the two
investments because the NPV of the difference in their cash flows is zero.
As a consequence , the two investments have the same NPV at this rate, so
this 10.55% is the cross over rate.
The NPV rule assumes that the investors can reinvest their cash flows
from the project at the required rate of return or opportunity cost of
capital (Why?)
– which seems to be a logical assumption--- there is no reason to believe that
one should not be able to re invest all the future cash flows at the market
determined rate of return.
The fourth of the desirable properties of decision rules…… says that using
the rule managers should be able to consider one project independently of all
others. To demonstrate that IRR rule can violate the value additivity principle,
consider the three projects whose cash flows are given in the table below :
Projects 1 and 2 are mutually exclusive and project 3 is independent of the
other two.
If the value additivity principle holds we should be able to choose the better of the
two mutually exclusive projects 1 and 2 without having to consider the
independent projects i.e we should choose 1 as IRR of 1 > IRR of 2 as shown
below.
But if we consider combination of projects we should prefer 2+3 than 1+3 i.e
project 1 is better in isolation but project 2 is better in combination with project 3
i.e value additivity is violated.
the fact that managers and financial analysts in general are more comfortable
about rates of return rather than rupee values .
Example : A statement like “The project gives 20% IRR”, seems to be more
popular than saying , “ at 10% discount rate the present value is Rs. 40000/-
say.
Under certain circumstances the IRR may have a practical advantage over the
NPV approach. We can’t estimate the NPV until we know the appropriate
discount rate, but we can still determine the IRR.
To address some of the problems with conventional IRR ( like multiple IRRs)
sometimes a modified IRR is used.
Say we have a cash flow of -$60 at time 0, +$155 at time 1 and -$100 at time
2. If we try and find the IRR for this cash flow stream there will be 2 IRRS
25% and 33.33%. BY using MIRR we can arrive at only one answer
whereby eliminating the multiple IRR problem.
– Time 1 : +$155
– Time 2 : +$0
– If you calculate the IRR now, you should get IRR = 19.71%
Approach 2 : The Reinvestment approach : Here we compound all cash
flows(positive and negative)except the first one, to the end of the projects life
at the required rate of return and then calculate the IRR. In a sense we
reinvest the cash flows and not taking them out of the project till its very end.
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and add them to the initial cost. In this example , if the projects required rate
of return is 20%, then the modified cash flows look as follows :
– Time 0 : -$60
– Time 1 : 0
– Time 2 : +$155*1.2 -$100= $86
– If you calculate the IRR now, you should get IRR = 19.72%
Approach 3.. Combination
Discount all the negative cash flows back to the present and compound all the
positive cash flows to the end.
For our example modified cash flows become :
– Time 1 : +$0
– Time 2 : $155x 1.2 = $186
– Calculate the MIRR = 19.87%
MIRR …problems
– Note that the average book value of assets depend on how the asset is
depreciated.—if one uses straight line depreciation to a zero salvage;
then one can take the initial asset value and divide by 2 to get the
average book value. For example if an investment is made amounting
to 500,000 to be depreciated using a straight line method over an
estimated life of 5 years then the average book value should be
500,000/2 = 250,000. Alternatively one can find the average book value
by averaging 6 figures (in ‘000s)as follows : (500 +400
+300+200+100+0)/6 = 250,000.
– For any other methods of depreciation you need to compute the BV in
each preceding period and take the average.
Decision Rule: Accept the project if the AAR is greater than a preset rate.
Example AAR
You are looking at a three year project with a projected net income of $2000
in year 1, $4000 in year 2, and $6000 in year 3. The cost is $12000 and that
will be depreciated over the three year life of the project. What is the AAR for
the project?
Solution :
Average net income for the project is =(2000 +4000 +6000)/3 =4000
Average book value of the project = (12000 +8000 +4000 +0)/4 = 6000 ( or
=12000/2 =6000)
AAR = 4000/6000 = 66.67%
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Advantages
– Easy to calculate and understand
Disadvantages
– Not a true rate of return; time value of money is ignored completely.
– Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate
– Based on accounting net income and book values, not real cash flows
and market values
If a project has a PI > 1 it implies that the PV of the future cash flows > the
initial cost i.e the project has a positive NPV.
Ranking Criteria:
– Select alternative with highest PI ( particularly when capital is scarce.
Because projects with highest PI would give maximum NPV per rupee
invested) ….. But does it always happen ?
Problem of scale :
Consider an investment that costs Rs. 5 crores and has a Rs. 10 crores PV of
future cash flows and an investment that costs 100 crores and a PV of future
cash flows = Rs. 150 crores.
The first project has a PI of 2 and an NPV of 5 crores while the second has a
PI of 1.5 but an NPV of 50 crores. If these are mutually exclusive projects
and we rely on PI method then we lose out by choosing the first one.
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Advantages
Practice problem1
a) Consider an investment that costs $100,000 and has a cash inflow of
$25,000 every year for 5 years. The required return is 9% and required
payback is 4 years.
– What is the payback period?
– What is the discounted payback period?
– What is the NPV?
– What is the IRR?
– Should we accept the project?
b)What decision rule should be the primary decision method?
c) When is the IRR rule unreliable?
Practice problem 2
An investment project has the following cash flows: CF0 = -1,000,000; C01 –
C08 = 200,000 each
If the required rate of return is 12%, what decision should be made using
NPV?
How would the IRR decision rule be used for this project, and what decision
would be reached?
How are the above two decisions related?
NPV = -$6,472; reject the project since it would lower the value of the firm.
IRR = 11.81%, so reject the project since it would tie up investable funds in a
project that will provide insufficient return.
The NPV and IRR decision rules will provide the same decision for all
independent projects with conventional/normal cash flow patterns. If a project
P a g e | 24
adds value to the firm (i.e., has a positive NPV), then it must be expected to
provide a return above that which is required. Both of those justifications are
good for shareholders.
Practice Problem 3
If we define the NPV index as the ratio of NPV to cost, what is the
relationship between this index and the profitability index ?
Practice problem 4
A project has an initial cost of I, has a required return of R, and pays C
annually for N years.
– Find C in terms of I and N such that the project has a payback period
just equal to its life.
– Find C in terms of I, N and R such that this is a profitable project
according to the NPV decision rule.
– Find C in terms of I, N and R such that the project has a benefit cost
ratio of 2.
Practice problem 5 :
An investment under consideration has a payback of seven years and a cost of
$537,000. If the required return is 12%, what is the worst case NPV? What is
the best case NPV? Explain. Assume the cash flows are conventional.
Practice Problem 6
The Yurdone Corporation wants to set up a private cemetery business.
According to the CFO, Barry M Deep, business is “looking up”. As a result,
the cemetery project will provide net cash inflow of $60,000 for the firm
during the first year, and the cash flows are projected to grow at a rate of 6%
per year forever. The project requires an initial investment of $925,000.
– If Yurdone requires a 13% return on such undertakings, should the
cemetery business be started?
Practice Problem 7
A project has the following cash flows :
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What is the IRR of this project ? If the required return is 12%, should the firm
accept the project ? What is the NPV of the project ? What is the NPV of the
project if the required return is 0%? 24% ? What is going on here ? Skecth the
NPV profile to help you answer the qs?