Company
Update
Research Bracing for tough times
th
6 March 2009
Revenue headwinds stronger than peers- Lower client mining V/s peers, historical
underinvestment in account mining will come to the fore
REDUCE Wipro’s superior performance in financial services set to end
Margin defense through INR depreciation/lower headcount addition would be at
Price Target Price risk from volumes/demand risk.
Rs 207 Rs 220 Indications of lower dividend payout/ discontinuing quarterly guidance testimony
Sensex 8,198 to co’s lack of visibility.
Valuations cheap, but so are for the sector as well.
Introduce ‘REDUCE’ rating with a price target of Rs 220.
Price Performance
We introduce coverage on Wipro Technologies with a REDUCE rating and a price target
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
of Rs 220. Though valuations at ~9x FY10E earnings of Rs 23.1 appear undemanding,
Absolute (6) (12) (54) (51) Wipro runs the highest risk of disappointment in our view (we expect consensus
Rel. to Sensex earnings downgrades, our US GAAP FY10E earnings at Rs 23.1, are already 7%
0 (9) (19) (5)
lower than consensus). Further we believe that Wipro faces stiff growth challenges
Source: Capitaline
than other Tier 1 peers given (1) lower client mining (underinvestment in account
management, although has undertaken some remedial measures over the past
few quarters) and (2) more pressures emerging from financial services where it has
Stock Details displayed resilience over the past few quarters vis-à-vis other Tier 1 peers. Although
Sector IT Services
hiring has remained in check at Wipro in FY09 (in line with demand weakness unlike
peers Infy and TCS who have hired aggressively during the year) and should help
Reuters WIPR.BO alleviate some pressure off margins, we believe that volume/pricing pressures would still
Bloomberg WPRO@IN keep margins down. Wipro management’s indications of discontinuing the practice of
Equity Capital(Rs mn) 2928 giving quarterly revenue guidance combined with co’s plans of lowering dividend payout
Face Value(Rs)
going ahead (Rs 6/share each over the past 2 years) will dampen investor confidence
2
further. In our opinion Wipro would fare worse than other Tier 1 peers in the tough
52 Week H/L 538/182 macro environment and thus expect it to under perform sector/other Tier 1 peers.
Market Cap(Rs bn//US$ mn) 294/5,647 Revenue headwinds stiffer than other Tier 1 peers
Daily Avg Volume (No of shares) 2080626 In our opinion, Wipro faces more challenges as compared with other Tier 1 peers in a
Daily Avg Turnover (US$) 9.2 tough macro environment driven by a long duration of underinvestment in relationship
management (albeit some corrective measures have been taken in the recent past)
which would impact Wipro negatively especially in vendor consolidation exercises. To
Shareholding Pattern (%) add to Wipro’s woes we believe that the strong show in financial services space could
be halted (Wipro’s metrics have been immune to the financial services pressure
(31st Dec’08)
until Dec’08 quarter as compared with peers which started reflecting weakness
Promoters 79.3 much earlier, please refer ‘ Immune to Financial Services weakness until now’).
FII/NRI 8.5 Further we believe Wipro’s lack of visibility is explained in it’s circumspect commentary
Institutions
in the recent months with co looking to discontinue the practice of quarterly revenue
1.8
guidance as well as reducing dividend payout( ~30% over the past 2 financial years)
Private Corp. 3.1
Public
Margins defense could be limited
7.3 Wipro could not reap in the benefits of ~25% INR depreciation during FY09 on account
of large amount of hedging positions at higher US$/INR rate ( Wipro’s IT services EBIT
margins during Q3FY09 were up by ~110 bps YoY, pale as compared to Infy’s margin
expansion of ~250 bps YoY). For FY10, Wipro’s forward hedge covers would be
realized between Rs 45-48 which would perk up the average realization rate. Further
Wipro’s hiring during FY09 has remained muted which would augur well in tough
demand environment. However we are of the view that margin upsides could be limited
despite the advantage of higher realization rate and employee costs on account of
volume/pricing pressures.
Manik Taneja
manik.taneja@emkayshare.com Key Financials (Rs Mn)
+91 22 6612 1253 Net EBIT EPS ROE P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV Div. Yld
YE-Mar PAT
Sales Core % (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
Sweta Sinha FY2008 197,428 33,688 17.1 32,241 22.4 27.9 9.2 7.7 2.3 3.0
sweta.sinha@emkayshare.com FY2009E 252,488 40,755 16.1 34,132 23.5 24.4 8.8 6.3 2.0 1.9
+91 22 6612 1282 FY2010E 261,381 38,846 14.9 33,629 23.1 20.3 8.9 5.9 1.7 1.9
FY2011E 282,074 41,045 14.6 34,693 23.8 17.6 8.6 4.7 1.4 1.9
Key Arguments
In f o s y s TCS HCL Te c h W ip r o
10
2
Sept'07 Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sept'08 Dec'08
We believe that despite the corrective measure adopted by Wipro over the past few
quarters have led to better account management / client mining Wipro’s historical under
investment in client relationships will impact revenue growth and work against Wipro in
vendor consolidation exercises.
12%
10%
2%
Sept'07 Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sept'08 Dec'08
We note that Wipro has been relatively immune to the broader financial services
weakness (given lower exposure than peers to financial peers at ~26% of
revenues as well as helped by ramp ups in key financial services clients over the
past few quarters, refer chart below). Our conversations with company as well as
industry checks indicate that Wipro is also facing project cuts/deferrals at 2 of its
financial services clients which should stall Wipro’s superior performance from financial
verticals going ahead.
20%
15%
-10%
35
30
Wipro’s EBIT margins have
remained flat unlike Infy and 25
TCS which have gained the
benefit of currency depreciation.
20
15
10
Sept'07 Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sept'08 Dec'08
40
35
Wipro has laid focus on
increasing fixed proportion of
contracts over the past few
30
quarters.
25
20
Sept'07 Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sept'08 Dec'08
Further, Wipro, like most other peers, could cut variable pay (most Tier 1 players
pointing to taking such a step if needed, Wipro’s variable salary at ~12% of overall
salary costs). However we believe that volume/pricing pressures as well as OCI losses
of ~Rs 15 bn sitting in the Balance Sheet would limit any notable margin expansion
even with the benefit of depreciating currency.
Financials
We estimate Wipro to report revenues of US$ 4207 mn (-2.7% YoY) and US$ 4569 mn
(+8.6% YoY) in FY10 and FY11 respectively. Although we build in pick up in revenue
growth for WIpro in FY11 as well like other sector peers, we believe Wipro would lag
sector in demand pickup. We expect revenue, EBIT and net profit CAGR of 5.7%,
0.5% and 0.8% over FY09E-11E. Key risks to our estimates emanate from US$/INR
appreciation (we build in avg realization rates of Rs 46.55 and Rs 45.7 for FY10/FY11,
spot rate assumptions of Rs 48/$ and Rs 47/$ for FY10/FY11), further protectionist
measures from the Western economies (like the ones we have seen in the recent past)
and increase in Tax holidays under Section 10A/10b of the Income Tax Act’1961 to
FY11. (currently we build in tax rates of 19% for FY11 as we factor expiry of tax
benefits in March’10)
FY10E FY11E
Our FY10/FY11 earnings
In Rs Mn Consensus Emkay % difference Consensus Emkay % difference
estimates are already lower than
street by ~7%. Sales 275017.6 261380.6 -5.0% 304459.0 282074.2 -7.4%
EBIT 42958.7 38845.7 -9.6% 47473.8 41045.0 -13.5%
Net Profits 37692.7 33628.8 -10.8% 39495.7 34693.0 -12.2%
EPS (Rs) 24.8 23.1 -6.8% 25.7 23.8 -7.3%
Peer Valuations
Company
Name M Cap EPS Rs EPS Growth PER, X EV/EBITDA, X ROE, %
FY09-11E
Rating CMP TP (Rs bn) FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E CAGR FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E
451 51.3 54.0 55.1 57.8 3.5% 9.7 9.2 9.1 8.6 14.2 11.4 11.1 9.6 45.9 37.1 32.6 29.6
TCS HOLD 461 590
119 133
689 81.3 102.2 99.0 108.0 2.8% 14.7 11.7 12.1 11.1 11.7 8.4 8.1 6.7 37.2 37.4 29.3 26.6
Infosys HOLD 8 0
301 22.4 23.5 23.1 23.8 0.8% 9.2 8.8 8.9 8.6 7.7 6.3 5.9 4.7 27.9 24.4 20.3 17.6
Wipro REDUCE 207 220
Mphasis Ltd BUY 170 240 36 12.2 14.1 29.8 27.9 40.8% 13.9 12.0 5.7 6.0 8.3 9.0 3.8 3.1 23.6 22.8 36.2 25.7
Tech
33 58.8 69.8 58.6 62.0 -5.7% 3.9 3.3 3.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.8 45.9 37.1 32.6 29.6
Mahindra BUY 250 303
HCL Tech HOLD 95 139 64 15.1 18.3 17.4 16.1 -6.2% 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.9 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 20.2 24.7 21.5 17.2
1000 8x
0 0
Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08
1800000 7x
1200000 24x
1500000
1200000 5x
800000 18x
900000
12x 3x
400000 600000
6x
300000 1x
0
Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 0
Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
Net Sales 197,428 252,488 261,381 282,074 Equity share capital 29,364 30,968 30,968 30,968
Growth (%) 28 4 8 Reserves & surplus 99,990 118,764 149,437 181,945
Total Expenditure (157,781) (203,448) (212,888) (230,518) Minority Interest 114 192 192 192
Growth (%) 29 5 8 Networth 129,468 149,924 180,597 213,105
EBIDTA 39,647 49,040 48,493 51,556 Secured Loans 43,732 46,315 46,315 46,315
Growth (%) 24 (1) 6 Unsecured Loans - - - -
EBIDTA % 20.1 19.4 18.6 18.3 Loan Funds 43,732 46,315 46,315 46,315
Other Income 2,450 (1,202) 1,260 1,860 Deferred Tax Liability 2,098 800 800 800
Depreciation (5,959) (8,285) (9,647) (10,511) Total Liabilities 175,298 197,039 227,712 260,220
EBIT 33,688 40,755 38,846 41,045 Goodwill 51,423 63,701 63,701 63,701
Interest - - - - Gross Block 47,837 63,837 73,837 83,837
EBT 36,138 39,553 40,106 42,905 Less: Depreciation (21,559) (28,310) (36,157) (44,869)
Tax (3,873) (5,356) (6,417) (8,152) Net block 26,278 35,527 37,680 38,968
EAT 32,265 34,197 33,689 34,753 Capital WIP 13,544 13,544 13,544 13,544
Growth (%) 6 (1) 3 Investment 16,506 22,206 22,206 22,206
EAT (%) 16.3 13.5 12.9 12.3 Current Assets 115,961 141,661 176,588 210,804
Minority Interest (24) (65) (60) (60) Inventories 7,172 9,684 10,742 12,365
Net Profit after MI 32,241 34,132 33,629 34,693 Sundry debtors 47,213 60,874 66,598 74,189
Cash & bank balance 39,270 37,899 59,862 77,881
Loans & advances 3,214 5,534 7,161 9,274
Other current assets 19,092 27,670 32,225 37,095
Current Liab & Prov 49,204 80,243 86,649 89,645
Current liabilities 46,193 76,092 82,353 85,009
Provisions 3,011 4,150 4,297 4,637
Net current assets 66,757 61,418 89,939 121,158
Misc exps - - - -
Deferred Tax 790 642 642 642
Total Assets 175,298 197,039 227,712 260,220
Cash Flow FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E Key ratios FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
Net Profit after Tax 32,241 34,132 33,629 34,693 EPS (Rs) 22.4 23.5 23.1 23.8
Add : Depreciation 5,959 8,285 9,647 10,511 CEPS (Rs) 26.6 29.1 29.7 31.1
Add : Misc exp w/off Book Value Per Share (Rs) 90.1 103.0 124.1 146.4
Net changes in WC (37,418) 5,339 (28,520) (31,219) Dividend Per Share (Rs) 6.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
Operational Cash Flows 47,612 42,959 36,779 32,064 Valuations Ratios (x)
Capital expenditure (55,294) (29,812) (11,800) (11,800) PER 9.2 8.8 8.9 8.6
Investments - - - - P/CEPS 7.7 7.1 6.9 6.6
Investing Cash Flows (55,294) (29,812) (11,800) (11,800) P/BV 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4
Borrowings 14,064 4,923 - - EV/EBIDTA 7.7 6.3 5.9 4.7
dividend paid (10,254) (6,807) (6,807) (6,807) EV/Sales 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.9
Issue of shares 768 (6,948) 3,851 4,621 M-Cap/sales 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1
Share Premium - - - -
Financing Cash Flows 4,668 (14,961) (3,476) (2,705) Profitability Ratios (%)
changes in cash (3,014) (1,813) 21,503 17,559 RoCE 27.0 25.7 20.9 18.9
Opening balance 19,650 39,270 37,899 59,862 RoNW 27.9 24.4 20.3 17.6
Closing balance 39,270 37,899 59,862 77,881 EBITDA Margin 20.1 19.4 18.6 18.3
EBIT Margins 17.1 16.1 14.9 14.6
Net Profit Margin 16.3 13.5 12.9 12.3
Source: Emkay Research
Appendix
Revenues ( Added QoQ in US$ Mn) Sept'07 Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sept'08 Dec'08
Infosys 94.0 62.0 58.0 12.9 61.1 -44.6
TCS 138 87 14 8 49 -91
HCL Tech 33.2 32.0 24.1 18.9 0.8 6.8
Wipro 78.6 121.4 52.4 36 42.4 -9.8
Cognizant 42.3 41.1 43.2 42.3 49.3 18.3
Revenues from North America Sept'07 Dec'07 Mar'08 Jun'08 Sept'08 Dec'08
Infosys, % 62.6% 62.3% 60.7% 62.6% 61.5% 64.5%
Infosys( in US$ mn) 639.8 675.3 693.2 723.0 747.8 755.6
QoQ growth, % 10.1% 5.6% 2.6% 4.3% 3.4% 1.0%
HCL Tech, %
HCL Tech ( in US$ mn) 232.5 253.5 271.1 289.2 289.2 305.9
QoQ growth, % 8.4% 9.0% 7.0% 6.7% 0.0% 5.8%
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