MATOKEO YA KURA YA MAONI 10-10-2010

Utangulizi
Haya ni matokeo ya kura za maoni ambazo zilifanywa na kampuni ya Synovate
Tanzania. Hi mojawapo ya mfulilizo wa kura za maoni ambazo Synovate wamekuwa
wakifanya na kutangaza baada ya kila robo mwaka. Utafiti huu ulifanyika mwezi wa
Septemba kati ya tarehe 5th and 16th 2010. Tulitembelea Mikoa yote ya Tanzania bara.
Katika kazi yetu tulichagua kwa nasibu wilaya 63 kuwakilisha maoni ya Watanzania.
Tuliwatumia wahoji 75 kukusanya data katika utafiti huu.

Mbinu Ya Utafiti
Mbinu iliyotumiwa katika huu utafiti ni mbinu iliyojikita kitakwimu zaidi(Quantitative
Research). Wahojiwa walichaguliwa kwa njia ya nasibu na kupitia kwa mfumo wa
jedwali la Kish Grid kama inavyotumika katika tafiti za sayansi za kijamii. Tuliwatumia
wahoji zaidi ya sabini na tano. Utafiti ulifanyika mikoa 21 ya Tanzania bara. Tuliwahoji
watanzania 2000 kutoka wilaya 63. Wahojiwa waliteuliwa kwa njia ya nasibu na
kulingana na idadi ya watu na walivyoenea Tanzania Bara. 53% walihojiwa ni
wanaume ukuilinganisha na wanawake 47%. Waliohojiwa mijini ni 40% ukilinganisha
na 60% kutoka vijijini. Mahojiano yote yalifanywa moja kwa moja na yalifanyika
nyumbani kwa wahojiwa. Haya matokeo yanaweza kutumiwa kutabiri matukio kitaifa
kwa uhakika mkubwa na pia kimkoa.

Dodoso
Dodoso tulioitumia ni dodoso ambayo tumekuwa tukiitumia katika tafiti zote za awali.
Dodoso moja ilichukua dakika 45 kumamilika. Majibu yote yalifasiriwa moja kwa moja
kwa teknolojia inayotumia mfumo wa kompyuta ya Formic . Formic ni mfumo wa
kuandika kwa namna ambayo kompyuta inaweza kusoma majibu ya wahojiwa moja
kwa moja kutoka kwa dodoso kama ilivyojazwa na mhoji.

Ubora
Utafiti wenyewe umefanywa kwa uhakika wa 95%. Ikiwa na uwezakano wa kupungua
au kuzidi takwimu tutakazoitoa kwa 5% . (95% Confidence level and -/+5% margin of
error). Wahojiwa wetu waliambatana na viongozi waliosimamia utafiti na kuhakikisha
kuwa ubora wa utafiti unazingatiwa. Pia tulikusanya na kuhifadhi namba za simu za
wahojiwa kuhakikisha kuwa wahusika walihojiwa. Mwisho kabisa kitengo chetu cha

© Synovate 2010 1
ubora kulihakiki na kuwatembelea 20% ya wahojiwa kwa siri ilikuhakikisha kuwa kazi
ilitendeka kama ilivyopangwa.

Je unaafiki utendaji wa serikali katika miezi 12 iliyopita?Do you approve or

disapprove of government's overall performance over the last twelve months?

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%
% Voter

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural
Gender Age group SETTING
Strongly approve 7% 8% 6% 8% 6% 6% 8%
Approve 43% 42% 44% 43% 43% 39% 45%
Neither approve nor disapprove 24% 25% 24% 25% 24% 25% 24%
Disapprove 19% 20% 18% 17% 20% 23% 17%
Strongly disapprove 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 3%
DKN/RTA 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3%

50% ya wahojiwa wanaafiki utendaji wa serikali. 23% wanasema kuwa hawaiafiki

kabisa kazi ya serikali nao 24% hawaegemei upande wowote. Wengi sana vijijini kuliko
mijini wanaiafiki kazi ya serikali.

© Synovate 2010 2
 1. Je Unaridhika na utendaji wa Serikali katika utoaji wa huduma zifuatazo
Tell me if your very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, dissatisfied or very
dissatisfied with the way the government is dealing with the following
issues?

60%

40%
% Vote

20%

0%
Access
Access Transpor
Employ Ritual to Access Environ
to Access Services t in
ment/Un Food Corrupti killings seconda to clean to health mental Electricit Spread
Poverty Primary Crime Roads Railways in health urban
employm Prices on of ry Drinking degradat y supply of HIV
Educatio services facilities and rural
ent albinos Educatio water ion
n areas
n
Very Satisfied 2% 3% 1% 5% 22% 37% 28% 11% 7% 9% 6% 6% 11% 4% 8% 6% 5%
Somewhat satisfied 17% 25% 12% 21% 37% 45% 49% 39% 44% 39% 36% 33% 45% 32% 37% 43% 35%
Dissatisfied 53% 52% 47% 38% 22% 15% 18% 36% 34% 38% 37% 36% 33% 34% 36% 34% 35%
Very dissatisfied 28% 20% 39% 35% 19% 3% 5% 13% 14% 13% 20% 24% 11% 29% 18% 16% 25%
NR 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

Watanzania wengi hawajaridhika na utoaji wa ajira kwa asilimia 83%. 72% ya

wahojiwa walisema kuwa hawajaridhika na bei ya vyakula . Kwa upande mwingine
watanzania wameridhika sana na utoaji wa elimu ya msingi na sekondari. Wahojiwa
pia walisema kuwa wanaridhika na vita dhidi ya ukimwi, huduma za afya na hali ya
usalama kama inavyojiri humu nchini.

© Synovate 2010 3
Nitakutajia Taasisi na watu wafuatao. Tafadhal niambie kwa kiasi gani una imani
nao? I am going to read to you a number of people and institutions.
Please tell me how much you trust them?
Rais Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete-84%
Baraza la Mawaziri-68%
Jeshi la polisi-45%
Baraza la Mitihani la taifa-50%
Mahakama-47%
Taasisi za fedha-52%
Taasisi za huduma ya afya-50%
Takukuru-46%
Vyama vya Upinzani-48%
SUMATRA-44%
TUCTA-47%
60%

50%

40%
% Voter

30%

20%

10%

0%
National
The Tanzania The Financial Public health PCCB/TAKU Opposition
The Cabinet Examination SUMATRA TUCTA
President Police Force Judiciary institutions system KURU Parties
Council
A lot of Trust 49% 26% 15% 15% 12% 13% 10% 15% 13% 11% 16%
Some Trust 35% 43% 30% 38% 35% 39% 40% 31% 35% 33% 31%
Only a little Trust 11% 21% 34% 28% 33% 31% 30% 28% 32% 30% 23%
No Trust at all 5% 8% 19% 15% 19% 13% 18% 23% 15% 12% 9%
DNK/RTA 0% 2% 2% 5% 2% 5% 2% 4% 4% 14% 21%

Je Unatathmini vipi utendaji wa Viongozi na taaasisi zifuatazo?

Kulingana na matokeo ya utafiti huu
78% -ya wahojiwa wanasema kuwa utendaji wa Rais Jakaya Mrisho Kiwkete ni bora au
bora zaidi
77%-Wanasema utendaji wa Mheshimiwa Shein ni bora au bora zaidi
58%-Wanasema utendaji wa Baraza la Mawaziri ni bora au bora zaidi

© Synovate 2010 4
75% -Wanasema utendaji wa Spika wa Mbunge la Jamhuri ya Muungano Samuel Sitta
ni Bora au bora zaidi
41%-wanasema utendaji wa wafanyi kazi wa umma ni bora au bora zaidi
33%-wanasema utendaji wa Jeshi la polisi ni bora au bora zaidi
39%-Wanasema utendaji wa taasisi za afya ni bora au bora zaidi
57%-wansema utendaji wa asassi zisizokuwa za kiserikali ni bora au bora zaidi
72%-wanasema utendaji wa vyombo vya habari ni bora au bora zaidi
59%-wanesema utendaji wa wanamuziki ni bora au bora zaidi
30%-wanasema utendaji wa TANESCO ni bora au zaidi ya bora
40%-wanasema utendaji wa TUCTA ni bora au zaidi ya bora
37%-wanasema utendaji wa SUMATRAni bora au zaidi ya bora
40%-Wanasema utendaji wa TAKUKURU ni bora au zaidi ya bora

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
President Speaker of
The Vice Cabinet Civil The Police Health PCCB/TAK
Jakaya the National NGOs Media Musicians TANESCO TUCTA SUMATRA
President Ministers Servants force Facilities UKURU
Kikwete Assembly
Very good 47% 39% 21% 31% 9% 10% 8% 16% 26% 23% 7% 13% 9% 14%
Good 31% 38% 37% 44% 32% 23% 31% 41% 46% 36% 23% 27% 28% 26%
Neither good Nor bad 16% 17% 32% 18% 41% 36% 33% 32% 21% 27% 29% 27% 31% 30%
Poor 3% 2% 6% 3% 12% 20% 18% 6% 4% 7% 18% 9% 11% 12%
Very poor 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 10% 8% 2% 1% 3% 20% 4% 6% 14%
DK/RTA 0% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 5% 4% 20% 14% 5%

© Synovate 2010 5
Je utapiga kura uchaguzi ukiitwa leo ? If elections were called today
would you vote?

I will most likely vote

83%

I will not vote at all

DNK/RTA 16%
1%

83% ya wahojiwa wasema wako tayari kupiga kura endapo uchaguzi ungeitwa leo.
Ni kipi kitachokuzia kupiga kura katika uchaguzi mkuu ujao?
30% Wanataja kuwa hawajaboresha hati za kupiga kura. 27% Wanasema kuwa
wamechoshwa na siasa na waliobaki hawajui na wengine wana sababu za kipekee.

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
18 to 24
Total Male Female 25+ yrs Urban Rural
yrs
Gender Age group SETTING
I have not updated my voter's card 30% 28% 32% 29% 31% 30% 30%
I am f ed up with politics 27% 28% 27% 20% 33% 31% 24%
The nature of my work won't allow me
to vote 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2%

Other 29% 31% 27% 43% 19% 29% 28%

NR 12% 11% 12% 7% 15% 7% 16%

© Synovate 2010 6
Je wangapi walishiriki katika uchaguzi au kura za maoni zilizopita? Did you vote
in the last general election /By election/Referendum?
65% ya wahojiwa wameshiriki chaguzi zilizopita.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
18 to 24
Total Male Female 25+ yrs Urban Rural
yrs
Gender Age group SETTING
Yes 65% 65% 65% 37% 74% 58% 69%
No 29% 28% 30% 56% 20% 35% 25%
NR 6% 7% 5% 7% 6% 7% 6%

Kama watanzania wangepewa nafasi leo kuchagua baadhi ya vijana waliojitokeza

na wenye vipaji vya uongozi kuwa rais wangemchagua nani?
Several youthful leaders have shown promising ability to lead. Several of the
leaders are well known and others might not be known in the national limelight.
If you were to elect one of these youthful leaders to be president today who
would you vote?
Wengi 38% wanamtaja Zitto kabwe , 15% wanamtaja Dr Hussein Mwinyi na12%
watamchagua Makongoro Nyerere.

© Synovate 2010 7
 Gender Age group SETTING

Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural

Zitto Kabwe 38% 41% 35% 46% 35% 43% 35%
Dr Hussein Mwinyi 15% 15% 16% 13% 16% 13% 16%
DK/RTA 13% 12% 14% 10% 14% 11% 13%
Makongoro Nyerere 12% 12% 13% 9% 14% 10% 14%
Lawrence Masha 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7%
Nnape Nauye 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Jerry Slaa 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
Halima Mdee 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2%
John Mashaka 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Lucy Owenya 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Eng Stella Manyanya 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
John Nchimbi 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Shy Rose Bhange 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Jakaya Kikwete 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Others 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%

© Synovate 2010 8
UMAARUFU WA VYAMA VYA KISIASA- Which political party do you feel closest
to?
Wahojiwa waliulizwa kuchagua chama cha kisiasa wanayohisi kuwa karibu nao sana.

64% wanasema kuwa wanahisi kuwa karibu na CCM

22% wanasema wanahisi kuwa karibu na CHADEMA
7% wanasema wakokaribu na CUF
5% Walitaja vyama vingine vya siasa
2% Hawakujibu hili swali

80%

70%

60%

50%
% Voters

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural
Gender Age group SETTING
CCM 64% 61% 68% 55% 68% 56% 70%
CHADEMA 22% 25% 18% 28% 19% 28% 17%
CUF 7% 8% 6% 9% 6% 8% 6%
Other 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5%
NR 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1%
NCCR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
TLP 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%

DEMOKRASIA TANZANIA
90% ya Watanzania wanaamini kuwa Tanzania ni nchi ya demokrasia.

© Synovate 2010 9
 60%

50%

40%
% Vote

30%

20%

10%

0%
Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural
Gender Age group SETTING
Full democracy 19% 16% 22% 15% 20% 15% 22%
Democracy with minor problems 52% 53% 50% 55% 50% 53% 51%
Democracy with major problems 18% 19% 17% 18% 19% 20% 17%
Not a democracy 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 7% 5%
DNK/RTA 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%

KUSHIRIKI KATIKA UCHAGUZI/UTEUZI WA VYAMA VYA KISIASA

Walishiriki kura za maoni ya kuteua wagombezi katika vyama tofauti tofauti. Did
you participate in the party primary nominations?
Walioshiriki katika kura za maoni ni 38% tu!
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural
Gender Age group SETTING
Yes 38% 41% 35% 24% 44% 31% 43%
No 61% 59% 64% 74% 56% 69% 57%
NR 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%

UCHAGUZI WA RAIS WA JAMHURI YA MUUNGANO YA TANZANIA

© Synovate 2010 10
Je katika uchaguzi utakaofanyika Oktoba utamchagua nani kuwa rais wa Jamhuri
ya Muungano ya Tanzania? Who will you most likely vote for as the Union
President in October current election?
61%-Rais Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete
16%-Wilbroad Slaa
5%-Prof Ibrahim Lipumba
13%-Hawakujibu
5%-Wengine
Waliobana maoni yao katika swali hili ni wengi sana asiilimia 13% ya wahojiwa wote.
Ikiwa watapiga kura ilivyodhihirika hapa basi 70% watampigia Jakaya Kikwete,
Wilbroad Slaa 18%, Lipumba 6% wengine 6%.

Jakaya Mrisho Wilbroad Slaa

Kikwete 16%
61%

NR
13%
Prof Ibrahim
Others Lipumba
5% 5%

Dar es 
Dodoma Arusha Kilimanjaro Tanga Morogoro Pwani salaam Lindi Mtwara Ruvuma Iringa Mbeya Singida Tabora Rukwa Kigoma Shinyanga KageraMwanza Mara Manyara Pemba Unguja

Prof Ibrahim Lipumba 2% 1% 0% 2% 3% 6% 4% 20% 15% 6% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 43% 15%

Wilbroad Slaa 14% 36% 6% 7% 11% 13% 20% 12% 3% 21% 45% 26% 7% 7% 20% 25% 14% 19% 21% 9% 35% 0% 1%

Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete 67% 48% 56% 62% 74% 69% 53% 48% 59% 59% 49% 61% 68% 84% 55% 53% 78% 53% 62% 84% 24% 25% 76%

Mutamwega Mugaiwa 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Chris Mziray 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Juma Ali Khatib 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%

Fahoni Dovutwa 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Others 4% 3% 11% 9% 0% 4% 11% 9% 3% 10% 0% 2% 5% 2% 0% 7% 0% 8% 7% 1% 3% 3% 1%

NR 13% 13% 26% 18% 12% 9% 13% 11% 16% 3% 4% 11% 19% 3% 25% 13% 6% 19% 9% 5% 37% 27% 7%

UTENDAJI WA WABUNGE KATIKA BUNGE LILILOVUNJWA

Kwa maoni yako ni mbunge gani alyetenda kazi nzuri sana katika bunge
iliyovunjwa mwezi wa Agosti mwaka huu. In your opinion which Member of
Parliament has performed very well in the just dissolved parliament

© Synovate 2010 11
 Gender Age group Setting

Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural

Zito Kabwe 20% 24% 17% 24% 19% 22% 20%
Dr. Slaa 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 13% 9%
Harison Mwakyembe 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4%
Anna Kilango 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Magufuli 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3%
mizengo pinda 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Samwel Sita 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3%
Hawa Ghasia 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%
wasila 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Nemroid Mkono 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Lawrence Masha 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Rostam Aziz 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Hussein Mwinyi 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Edward Lowassa 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Halima Mdee 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Hamis Kagasheki 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Jenista Mhagama 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%
David Mathayo 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Mohamed Dewji 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Ibrahim Sanya 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Paul Kimiti 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1%
Bernard Membe 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
None 27% 22% 31% 25% 27% 27% 26%
Others 0% 3% 6% 8% 3% 6% 8%

Kulingana na utafiti huu wabunge 6 bora katika Bunge lililovunjwa hivi majuzi ni
Zitto Kabwe-20%

Dr Slaa-11%

Harrison Mwakyembe-3%

Anna Kilango Malecela-3%

John Magufuli-3%

© Synovate 2010 12
 TAKUKURU NA UCHAGUZI
Je unajua kama Bunge iloipitisha sheria kuzuia rushwa katika
uchaguzi?
54% Wanafahamu kuwa Bunge lililopita lillipitisha sheria ya
kupambana narushwa katika uchaguzi.
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural
Gender Age group SETTING
Yes 56% 61% 50% 50% 58% 58% 54%
No 44% 39% 50% 50% 42% 42% 46%

Wengi wa watanzania wanaunga mkono TAKUKURU katika juhudi za kupambana na

rushwa na uchaguzi. 67% wanaunga mkono juhudi za TAKUKURU kupambana na
rushwa katika uchaguzi.

© Synovate 2010 13
 Yes No
80%

71% 72%
70% 67% 68% 67%
63% 64%

60%

50%

40% 37% 36%

33% 32% 33%
29% 28%
30%

20%

10%

0%
Total Male Female 18 to 24 yrs 25+ yrs Urban Rural

Gender Age group SETTING

Wantanzania wengi wanamini kuwa Elimu ya kisiasa kwa jamii, Ukakamavu wa

vyombo ya habari na utekelezaji wa sheria bila upendeleo kutazuia rushwa katika
uchaguzi.

NR I don't believe at all I believe to a very large extent

Lack of civic education is the cause of corruption in the Election

Poor implementation of the law will always encourage corruption in the Elections

The Media has been at the forefront of fighting corruption in elections

Money is very important in winning Elections

Political parties contribute to corruption during elections

Those who vie for electoral positions must be rich

There is no corruption in elections it is an exaggeration of the Media

Women should not participate in competitive election and should only wait to be
nominated

The Media encourages electoral corruption

Those who participate in elections are idle and lack something to do

cannot vote for someone who has not paid me

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

MAHAKAMA NA SHERIA

© Synovate 2010 14
Wengi wa Tanzania waamini kuwa mahakama na sheria na ndio inaweza kusuluhisha
Migogoro katika jamii. 79% ya Wantzania wanaamini mahakama ukilinganisha na 10%
wanaomini viongozi wa kidini, wakuu wa kaya 6% na 3% mahakama za jadi.

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Courts Religious leaders Village Elders Government officers Traditional courts Don't know
Total 79% 10% 6% 1% 3% 1%
Male 78% 10% 7% 1% 4% 1%
Female 79% 10% 6% 1% 2% 1%

© Synovate 2010 15