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The Gannstudygroup Presents

A Scrapbook of Planetary Meteorology:

W. T. Foster and his contemporaries

(FIRST EDITION)

This E-Book is not to be sold.

It is a free educational service in the public interest published by

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A Note About the Scrapbook`

3

Biographical Sketch of W. T. Foster

5

The Work of W. T. Foster, Long-Range Weather Forecaster

8

Appendix I: Richard Mansill

67

Appendix II: John H. Tice

70

Appendix III: Charles H. Lillingston

76

Appendix IV: "Herschel's" Lunar Table

81

Appendix V: Sepharial on Sunspots

87

Appendix VI: Jerome S. Ricard

90

Appendix VII: Warren Fay Carothers

113

A NOTE ABOUT THE SCRAPBOOK

For modern readers, this Scrapbook represents an absolutely unprecedented glimpse into the methods and theories of weather forecaster W. T. Foster, whose reports appeared weekly in newspapers throughout the United States from the 1880s to his death in 1924. No other forecasts by a planetary meteorologist were so widely read and their accuracy was frequently praised in their day.

This collection started very modestly with a routine search for more information on the writers of nineteenth-century weather-forecasting almanacs. Probably the single article that was most influential in arousing the curiosity of the editor appeared in the Dec. 31, 1891, issue of the Herald of Grand Forks, ND, reproduced herein. Written by W. T. Foster, it mentioned, by last name only, a number of long-forgotten forecasters from whose work Foster said he had learned valid techniques. This virtually demanded further research. Who were these people and did Foster have anything else to say about them? As that question began to be answered, it became evident that Foster's column was widely disseminated over a number of years and that it was full of information about his own methods. A new question arose: What were those methods? To find the answer to this new question, an intensive search of databases was required. Thus from a humble beginning of just a single newspaper column, this collection grew to its present length as a book of more than 100 pages.

There is no pretension that this is a complete collection of Foster's thinking; it is only claimed that this book contains many of his most stimulating newspaper writings. My purpose was to present, as far as possible, Foster's explanations of the HOW of his work. Thus I omitted his actual predictions in most cases in order to concentrate on his explanations of his techniques. Most people who make predictions want to keep their methods a proprietary secret and indeed Foster did not want commodities speculators to capitalize on his work (recognizing, as he did, that if changes in the weather affect the amount of crop production and therefore the prices that harvests can command, foreknowledge of weather conditions could be exploited). Nonetheless he apparently sought — through the columns he wrote and by means of correspondence courses and a series of educational pamphlets — to disseminate , with unusual frankness ("c’est gros comme une maison," as the French might say) the broad outline of his forecasting methods, if not the fine details, and this is full justification for the attention given to his theory in this book.

Entries in the Foster section are organized by date of publication and are also thus organized in each of the individual appendices. When a newspaper report is about Foster, as opposed to being a column that he himself wrote, this is indicated in

brackets before the text quoted; therefore, unless otherwise indicated, quotes in the main section of the Scrapbook are from Foster's newspaper column.

Throughout the main part of the book, footnotes give the sources of the Foster columns and also some explanatory information where it was deemed helpful or necessary (such as the full names of competing weather forecasters, to give one example). In certain cases, I found entire articles of interest on a personality or subject treated by Foster and it seemed cumbersome to attempt to put these into footnotes spreading over several pages. At this point the idea of creating a series of appendices was born.

The appendices serve two essential purposes: 1) While, as Foster (correctly) wrote, "Prof. [C. C.] Blake, of Topeka, Kansas, is uncommunicative as to his theories," I found that in a select number of cases, such as Richard Mansill and W. F. Carothers, they lifted the veil on their methods to some degree, and since Foster stated explicitly in the same article that "I have carefully studied all these theories, have tested them by the records of the Washington weather bureau, and find some truth in each," it made sense to me to include what these persons were saying about their methods. And since Foster said "We are all followers of Prof Tice" and I found a copy of a biographical sketch and summary explanation of Tice's work by his son-in-law and partner, I could scarcely in good conscience avoid its inclusion. 2) Certainly the work of some individuals was clearly tremendously supportive of Foster's statements (the astronomer Father S. J. Ricard and Foster seemed to be in perfect agreement in their prediction results, for example, even though their methods of getting to those results were different — Ricard used sunspots to predict the weather, Foster held that sunspots and the weather were both only the effects of the planetary causes that he used in his work; in another case, it was found that the astrologer Sepharial agreed with Foster's findings that the movement of the planets creates sunspots). It seemed to me a disservice to the reader not to include the thinking of such individuals in this collection.

Throughout the text, obvious typographical errors in the originals have been corrected.

Evidently Foster's work was known to stock and commodity market analyst and theoretician W. D. Gann, inasmuch as the latter sold Foster's pamphlet "Sun Spots and Weather" to interested followers of his work. Just as Foster did in forecasting the weather, Gann, too, used mathematical calculations and astronomical indications in forecasting the financial markets.

THE EDITOR.

Biographical Sketch of W. T. Foster

Biographical Sketch of W. T. Foster William Thomas Foster, who was without a doubt the best-known

William Thomas Foster, who was without a doubt the best-known planetary meteorologist of his day, was born in Marshall, Clark County, Illinois on Jan. 17, 1840. As a child, he went to school in the winter and worked on a farm in the summer. 1

"In 1849, his parents decided to migrate to California with the gold seekers, but upon reaching Rubidoux Landing, which is now St. Joseph, Miss., and hearing of the many hardships and privations necessary before reaching California, it was decided that the mother and children would remain in Missouri and the father, Thomas Foster, would go on to California alone, where he was very successful for a short time and was supposedly murdered for his valuable claims.

"The mother and children settled in Harrison county, Missouri, where the children, including the deceased W. T. Foster, were educated as far as possible in those days, W. T. Foster himself being a school teacher at the age of 20 and his wife, who survives him, being one of his pupils. 2 At the outbreak of the war, on April 18, 1861, he

1 Foster Genealogy by Frederick Clifton Pierce, p. 688.

was mustered into the Second Missouri Cavalry, known as Merrill's Horse, as a lieutenant of that organization, the company of home guard militia of which he was an officer being taken as a unit of the Merrill's Horse. He was mustered out at Memphis, Tenn., on August 19, 1865, after more than five years of service. 3

"After holding several political offices following the war he settled into newspaper work, 4 owning and editing papers in Bethany, Gallatin and Chillicothe, Missouri, and then in Albia and Creston, Iowa; then to Burlington, Iowa, as associate editor of the Hawk-eye; then to Omaha, Nebr., as editor of the Republican and afterward as associate editor of the Bee; then to St. Joseph, Missouri, as associate editor of the Herald, — which was the last newspaper editing he did, for in 1891 he left the Herald to devote his entire time to the study and research necessary toward better weather forecasts and the publishing of same.

"When a boy he was interested in the signs or lore of those days relative to weatherology and being of an investigating mind, he was soon led to the positions of the moon and planets as the origin of most of these old sayings. 5 In 1879 he began writing weekly weather letters for publication and the wonderful record of one interesting as well as instructive letter a week for 2,314 weeks without missing a week was broken after issuing his letter under date of August 16, 1924. 6

"In March, 1903, he moved from St. Joseph, Mo., to Washington D. C., in order that he might be able to gain access to and copy the old government meteorological records, which are so necessary in his forecasting and were not obtainable in any other way. All income from his work, outside of a meager living, and also many donations toward his work, were used in compiling these records and in research work. The largest single donation toward his research work was given by G. A. Glines, now deceased, formerly of Winnipeg, Canada, who spent $20,000 on the work after being in close touch with the work many years. 7

Genealogy.

3

"Was private, corporal, sergeant, lieutenant and captain," according to Foster's Genealogy.

4

Foster's Genealogy says "After the war became newspaper editor, and did editorial work on country "

proceeding on to list others of the newspapers above.

newspapers; then on Leavenworth Times [in Kansas]

5

According to Foster's Genealogy, he "began lecturing on this subject in 1876."

6

Foster's Genealogy states that in 1899, at the time that book came out, "his weather bulletins are extensively published from Manitoba to Texas, and Maine to California. The basis of his calculations is that the sun, moon and planets, through magnetism, control all weather changes. He claims that his calculations are about perfected and that he will soon be ready to place before the world the greatest, most wonderful and most useful of modern discoveries."

7

About a year later, the Foster column stated: "A hundred years from now, when governments have discovered more of Foster's theories and have charted the cycles of our atmospheric changes and their planetary causes, almost perfect forecasts of great storms, temperature extremes, drouth, excessive precipitation and general cropweather will be made. Fifty years ago, when W. T. Foster first began to issue weather forecasts and explain his theories, few gave him credit and many thought fake; twenty years ago when such advanced minds as J. R. Townsend, of Los Angeles, and the late G. A. Glines, of Winnepeg, and

"On. Aug. 11, 1924, he had an acute attack of appendicitis and an operation was necessary. He was apparently well on the road to recovery from the effects of this first operation when it was found that abscesses had formed that necessitated a second operation. While he had a most wonderful physique for a man of 84, his strength was not sufficient to overcome the effects of this second shock. [He passed away on Sept. 26, 1924.]

"Interment was in Arlington cemetery under the auspices of the G.A.R. 8 and Masonic 9 organizations of which he was a member." 10

others had sufficient faith in the late W. T. Foster and his theories to give them financial support, planetary weatherology had taken a long stride ahead in the minds of free thinking scientists; today, such men as Prof. [Ellsworth] Huntington, of Yale; Prof. [C. G.] Abbott [properly Abbot], of the Smithsonian Institution; Dr. [Jerome S.] Ricard, of Santa Clara College, and many other advanced scientists in different parts of the world are firm in their convictions that terrestrial atmospheric changes are caused by the positions of the bodies in our solar system. I believe that the time is not far distant when some government will thoroughly investigate planetary influence and prove the majority of the late W. T. Foster's theories to be laws of nature. I expect to live to see our cause, accepted by the world." The Herald-Mail of Fairport, NY, Oct. 8, 1925, p. 3.

8

The Grand Army of the Republic, a fraternal group.

9

St. Joseph Lodge No. 78, A. F. & A. M., according to the Elk City (OR) News Democrat, Oct. 2, 1924. This paper reported that he had a granddaughter in those parts, identified as Mrs. J. L. White. His daughter, Mrs. M. C. Koester, lived in Portland, OR, according to the Oregonian of Oct. 7, 1924. The latter paper noted that Foster's weather forecasts were carried by publications in Canada and England as well as in the US.

THE WORK OF W. T. FOSTER, LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTER As reported in articles by and about him

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[From an article quoting Foster:] "W. T. Foster, the weather prophet of Burlington, Iowa, predicts severe storms from now until the 28th of this month. He bases his calculations on the fact that the earth and Mercury will pass the sun's equator and Venus its equinoctial between the 18th and 28th." 11

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"By the records of the signal service I can prove to any well-informed fair- minded person that the course, location and force of the storm waves, and the prominence or force of the earthquakes, auroras, and sun spots are governed by the positions of the earth, moon, sun and planets, and I expect to have an opportunity of laying these facts before the weather bureau of the United States. Not, however, while that bureau is under the control of the war department, but soon after it has passed to the agricultural bureau where it properly belongs. Meantime I hope that readers of my letters will investigate. For $1 the navy department will send you the nautical almanac, which gives all the necessary information of the planets, and by application to the weather bureau at Washington you can obtain the daily weather maps free. 12 They furnish the most reliable and easily understood record of what the weather has been.

"The easiest method of investigating my theories is to take the dates on which the moon crosses the earth's equator which occurs about every fourteen days. You will find that the greatest storms occur very close to these dates." 13

+ + +

"The causes that will greatly increase the force of the storms of this storm period are: Venus crosses the sun's equator on the 16th, the moon crosses the earth's equator on the 19th, and Mercury crosses the sun's equator at its greatest disturbing point on

11 The Evening Bulletin of Maysville, KY, June 23, 1888, p. 3 via http://kdl.kyvl.org/ .

12 For sources of historical and contemporary weather data, see http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill/pages/climate.html and

4370792/Data_001208558909/ (free Yahoo membership is required at Gannstudygroup).

the 20th. These three disturbances occurring within four days will act as does the attenuating current of the electro-dynamo machines, and will cause great activity in the earth's electric currents. This will be the tornado period of

"During these disturbances the moon will pass south of the earth's equator. This has the effect of pulling the flow tide of the earth's atmosphere from the Northern to the Southern hemisphere, with cooler weather in the Northern. When the earth's atmosphere is pulled south it leaves a less dense atmosphere north and permits the cold of outer space to more readily penetrate the earth." 14

+ + +

"I have never known Venus to pass its equinoctial, at 30 deg. heliocentric longitude, that it did not cause great disturbances, and at its next equinoctial it will be very close to the earth.

"Our next storm, about October 9, will be influenced by Mercury passing the sun's equator, and at the same time crossing the earth's equator." 15

+ + +

"Heretofore I promised to give in this letter the dates for one of the greatest storms of the year. I have already stated that the tropical hurricanes would increase in force from the 1st of the month to the 9th, when one of them will be not far from the Gulf of Mexico, but these tropical hurricanes are entirely distinct from the continental storms, and more in an entirely different circuit. The continental storms will be due to leave the Pacific coast about the 5th, cross the Mississippi valley from the 6th to 8th, and reach the Atlantic coast about the 9th. It will be at its greatest force on the Northeast Atlantic coast about the 9th, and will be a very dangerous storm. I would advise all to keep off of the seas about that time. About that time the storms will be very severe all around the earth, and while our set of storms are crossing the Mississippi valley the other three storm waves that belong to this latitude will be about the middle of the North Atlantic, in Eastern Europe and on the North Pacific. The three systems of hurricanes, one on the North Atlantic, one on the North Pacific and one on the Indian ocean, will all show increased activity; each of these systems revolves around the center of the oceans to which they belong.

"Following the storm of 5th to 9th will be a cold wave the force of which will depend on the location of the tropical hurricane. In the extreme Northwest I expect a blizzard but I cannot say how far south it will go. The cause of these unusual

14 The Fort Worth [TX] Weekly Gazette, Aug. 21, 1890, p. 1.

disturbances are: Venus at its equinoctial on the 8th and the moon crossing the earth's equator on the 9th. The influence of Venus' equinoctial covers all the first half of the month while the moon's influence covers only three or four days. On the 8th the equator of Venus will be toward the sun, increasing the Sun's electrical forces, which in turn causes an electrical agitation throughout the solar system. This does not change the time or direction of the storms, only increasing their force. This Venusion disturbance would develop sun spots were Jupiter at his disturbing point, but as he is not there will be but few sun spots. The earth was passing the equator of Venus from the 20th to 25th, causing the great storms of that period.

"As before stated November will be noted for its great storms. Mercury will pass its greatest disturbing point on the 15th, and will effect the storm immediately before and after that date. But the influence of Mercury and and Venus on the weather differ very much, the former having a tendency to murky, rainy weather, while the latter is more violent and frequently brings the tornado, the hurricane and the blizzard. We may not expect settled weather again till after the 25th. It must be remembered, however, that the storms do not cover the whole continent, but when they cross the southern part cool, fair weather is the rule for the north, and when they cross the north part warm, fair weather occurs in the south. Look out for bad weather in the valley between the Alleghany and Rocky mountains from November 6th to 9th, a dangerous storm on the Atlantic coast, a great hurricane on the Gulf of Mexico and a blizzard in the Northwest." 16

+ + +

"Venus' equinoctial on the 8th will continue to increase the force of the storms till about the 18th, and mercury crossing the sun's equator on the 15th will add to the force of the storms from about the 13th to the 22d. The center of this storm wave will probably pass through the border Southern states and then move toward the Northeast for the reason that the moon will have gone south of the earth's equator, although Venus being very close to the earth tends to drive the storms into northern latitudes. Venus and Mercury being south of the earth's equator have a tendency to pull the storms south." 17

+ + +

16 The Fort Worth [TX] Daily Gazette, Nov. 4, 1890, p. 7.

"ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

"We are now approaching the winding up periods of the great November storms. All round the earth great and destructive storms, hurricanes and blizzards have occurred and in them Venus has again proved the power of her equinoctial electric currents in bringing fierce storms; the moon has again demonstrated its electric power when crossing the earth's equator, and now it is Mercury's time to again tell what it can do in disturbing the planetary family by crossing the sun's equator, which occurred on the 15th. The effect was felt to some extent, in the last storm, but its principal effect is felt in the evening up process after it has disturbed the electric equilibrium by crossing the sun's equator. Its effects are seen principally in the increase of rains, snows, sleets and foggy, murky weather.

"THE NEXT STORM WAVE

"will be due to leave the Pacific coast about the 16th, cross the great valley from 17th to 19th and reach the Atlantic coast about the 20th. It will become a furious storm about the 22nd when it will be on the middle of the north Atlantic and at the same time another approaching storm will be very severe on the Pacific coast; a third one will be in central Asia and a fourth in central Europe. Our storm will pass through the Southern States causing cold weather north of the storm and warm weather south of it. A very considerable amount of snow and rain may be expected from this storm wave.

"I hope that readers of my letters will study the laws of storms which they will find in my letters for without this much of the benefits to be derived from my forecasts will be lost. Remember that all storm waves are whirlwinds, turning from right by way of the front to the left; the center of the storm rises and the wind blows toward it.

"A YEAR OF DISASTROUS STORMS.

"I believe that 1892 will be a year of the most disastrous storms experienced in recent times. I do not know of a time in the past when the disturbing forces were so great as they promise to be in 1892. From 1880 to 1884 the disturbing elements were quite active on account of Uranus being at its equinoctial, where the earth is in March, but in 1892 two of the greatest planets in the solar system will pass their equinoctials about the same time. In January 1892 Jupiter will be at his equinoctial and also at perihelion, or about 42,000,000 miles nearer the earth than when he passed his equinoctial in 1886. The equator of Jupiter will be toward the sun and his greatest electrical force will be felt throughout the earth's orbit for six months before and after that date. In August 1892 Saturn will pass its equinoctial, where the earth is in March,

and its full electrical force will be felt by the sun and earth for twelve months before and after that date. At that time the edge of Saturn's rings will be toward the earth — the rings coincide with Saturn's equator — and cannot then be seen except through powerful telescopes. These two great planets — Jupiter is 1300 times larger than the earth, while Saturn is nearly as large — will be on opposite sides of the sun, with their equators toward the sun and toward each other. The electricity that is thrown off over the equator of an electro-dynamo machine will knock over small objects a hundred feel away, and from that one may imagine what a powerful influence our earth will encounter when it comes between the equator of two such electro-dynamos as Jupiter and Saturn, which revolve on their axes so rapidly as to cause their equators to move thousands of times more rapidly than do the equators of our most powerful electro- dynamos.

"WEATHER AND SCIENCE NOTES.

"In a letter from a friend in New York City it is suggested that: 'Electricity is intensified vibration. Given an adequate conductor there is no loss or expenditure in transit, for it is not matter, not a fluid, but motion. This inconceivably intense vibratory motion produces effects so unique as to be confounded with cause. In one condition it is called heat, but heat is only an effect of the propulsion of this intense vibration against the air, producing friction of its atoms, hence the arc light and the forked lightning. Magnetism is only another effect, produced by the proximity of the two opposite vibratory motions. Vibrations can have only two general motions, hence the intenser motion of the two is called the positive and draws the negative to itself. Heat, light, life, magnetism, chemical affinities, force, gravitation, etc., are all effects of this vibratory motion called electricity, which is the infinite, universal cause.'

"This theory of electricity is similar but not the same as that to which I hold. The scientific world fail to find a beginning for creation and refuse to recognize more than three forms of matter. I believe that there are at least five forms of matter beginning at ether of outer space, condensations of which constitute electricity which condenses to form the gases, liquids and solids. In proof of this, all matter is convertible into electricity. To generate electricity we decompose zinc which goes out through the copper wire. As the zinc goes back into electricity it must continue to be matter and it is not unreasonable to believe that the zinc was originally composed of electricity. Creation is now in progress as much as it ever was. Condensations of electricity form the atom and build it into a molecule, meteor, comet, moon, planet and sun, their only difference being in their size, solidity and their electric forces. All these bodies may grow to be sure." 18

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[In an article mentioning Foster:] "Besides his [weather] predictions, Mr. Foster sends us some interesting notes on sanitary and scientific subjects. Here, for example, is a nut for the bacteriologists to crack: —

"[']We are now in the midst of the hog cholera period and the prevalence of contagious diseases among men and the lower animals. Contagious diseases among children are reported as epidemic in many places. I have a theory as to the cause, and I believe that statistics of contagions and epidemic diseases will prove the correctness of the theory.

"[']The cause is to be found in the aphelion and perihelion of the planets, especially of Jupiter. This planet is 44,000,000 of miles nearer the sun and earth at perihelion than at aphelion. When it is nearest the sun and earth their atmospheres expand and when farthest from the earth they contract. In the one instance the waters and heavy gases of the earth are evaporated and lifted into the atmosphere and in the other they are condensed and precipitated. These great changes in our earth and atmosphere affect the health of man and beast." 19

+ + +

"WEATHER AND SCIENCE NOTES

"In studying meteorology or any of the physical sciences one of the most important items is the nature of attraction. It is usually spoken of as a pull, but this is an impossibility. It must be a push. To illustrate: The earth and all the planets have greater diameters through their equators than through their poles. Why? Astronomers say that while the earth was a heated and melted mass its rapid revolution on its axis caused it to elongate in the direction of its equator. But I deny that it was ever a melted mass any more than we now see in the volcanoes. Bodies of electricity are to solid matter like bodies of water expelling the lighter while the heavier sinks into it. The earth throws off a body of electricity over its equator and solid bodies in space are pushed into that electrical body, and seeking its center are conveyed to near the earth's equator. This is one cause of the earth's greater growth at its equator while vegetable growth furnishes another. All the planets were originally comets and were pushed from space toward the sun's electric center, its equator. But their momentum caused them to pass beyond the sun's equator, and then the resistance of matter pushed them back toward the sun's electric belt again, and so they continue to vibrate each time passing a little less distance beyond the center of the sun's electric belt. The

earth now only goes seven degrees north and south of the sun's equator and the moon only five degrees with and south of the earth's equator. Placing an electric body on one side of matter takes or drives away the resistance or pressure of the universal matter of space, and the resistance on the other side pushes the matter into the center of the electrical body. Organized bodies like meteors, comets, moons and planets have no weight toward any other body as their matter presses equally toward their own centers. Another fact has much to do with these questions. Whenever matter — I regard electricity as matter — moves in one direction other matter moves in the opposite direction. All physical scientists agree that electricity passes from sun and planets over their equators and returns to them at their poles, and electricity passing from the earth at its equator would require that other matter come to it at the equator and pass from it at the poles, so my theory does not disagree with generally accepted scientific principles. But when two organized bodies come near each other their electric fields repel each other and therefore the planets, moons, suns and comets cannot fall into each other. This explains the tides. Scientists say that the moon's attraction pulls the waters of the ocean up, causing a tidal wave. I do not believe anything of the kind. The moon's electric field with its accompanying etheric matter passes over the ocean, depressing it as a great weight making a trough in the ocean, and after it passes on the ocean wave comes in to fill the trough and level the sea. The fact that the flood-tide is 2000 miles behind the moon is good evidence for this theory. The tides then are caused by a push instead of a pull. The planets sink into the sun's etheric atmosphere as a log or stone sinks into water; the heavier the planet the nearer to the sun it sinks. The age of the planets has nothing to do with their position, near or far from the sun. The circulation of electricity through them causes them to revolve on their axes, while the sun's etheric atmosphere revolving with it causes them to revolve around the sun." 20

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"A concise statement of my weather theories is this: North of latitude 30 the storm waves move entirely around the earth from west to east and never die or become disorganized. I know the periods of four of these storm waves and can give the dates approximately on which they will pass any meridian all around the earth. These storm waves sometimes become great storms and at other times they become almost extinct, but they continue to move eastward, sometimes faster, sometimes slower, but averaging about twenty-five miles an hour. These four storm waves increase and decrease in force at the same time, although they are, on an average, about 3400 miles apart, and the variation in their force is caused by the electrical influence of the sun, moon and planets. Those bodies are electro-dynamos and throw an electric influence over their equators as do all electro-dynamo machines, and when

one of these bodies pass the plane of the equator of another and consequently through its electric belt every body of the solar system is electrically disturbed thereby because they are all electrically connected. The disturbance increases the force of the storms on the earth, sun and other planets at the same time, as the moving force in these storm waves is electricity, which comes from the electric currents of the body to which they belong. Perihelion of the planets and perigee of the moon expands the earth's atmosphere; aphelion of the planets and apogee of the moon have opposite influence. From these influences occur all weather changes, auroras, sun spots, tornadoes, earthquakes and other unusual effects in the earth, atmosphere and sun. Earthquakes are caused by subterranean thunder just as it occurs among the clouds. The earth, sun and planets are solid bodies and have slowly grown from atoms, and electricity is the builder." 21

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"This period of great disturbances will begin during the first part of May, while Mars will be passing its equinoctial, Mercury passing the sun's equator and the moon passing the earth's equator; but while these storms will be very severe, they will not compare with those that will occur later in the year and during the first part of 1892. This will also be a period of great earthquakes in countries where they are common, and volcanoes will become more common and increase in activity.

"The principal causes of these disturbances will be the equinoxes of Saturn and Jupiter. These great planets throw an electric influence into space over their equators, and this electric influence of Saturn will strike Mars in May, while it is passing its equinoctial, thereby extending its electric influence to the sun. The electric equator of Saturn will affect Venus, the earth and Mercury in succession, and will directly affect the sun in October, while on the opposite side of the sun the great planet Jupiter will be approaching its equinoctial in a similar manner, reaching that point early in January." 22

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"The storms of April will all be severe both from minor causes and the effects of the powerful electric currents from the equators of Jupiter and Saturn, which will begin to have a light influence on the earth's electric currents. Mercury will pass the sun's equator on April 2, and with the continued influence of Venus, which will have passed the sun's equator March 28, will materially increase the force of this first April storm, so that it will affect most parts of the United States. These storm waves cause all the changes of the weather, including the winds and their changes, the cool weather

21 The Fort Worth [TX] Daily Gazette, Dec. 27, 1890, p. 8.

and cold waves, the warm days, frosts, rain, hail, snow, sleet, and when their tracks continue far to the north great drouths result. I cannot explain all these effects of the storm waves in every letter, and to secure the full benefits of these forecasts the reader must study my science notes and discussion on the beginnings of creation and the physical forces. A scrap book of these articles would be convenient for reference." 23

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"THE MOON'S INFLUENCES

"This satellite has more influence on the weather than any other body except the sun, but the masses have been led into an error by supposing that the changes of the moon cause changes in the weather. When the moon and sun are on the same side of the earth the electrical influences are increased in that direction, but this does not increase the force of the storms but merely affects their location. There is also a belief among the hunters, frontiersmen and sailors that when the moon hangs on its point much rain or snow will occur during that moon. The North American Indians also follow this sign and believe it to be a propitious sign for hunting. Damp weather and snow are favorable to the hunter for in dry weather the leaves make too much noise for success and snow is favorable for tracking game. When the moon hangs on its point the hunter says he cannot hang his powder horn on its point and then is the time to hunt and when the moon at new lies on its back it indicates that the hunter can hang his shot pouch on its point and he would better not waste his time at hunting. I have no use for anything that has superstition for its base, but these signs that have so much influence with certain classes of people throughout the world should not be cast aside without investigation. Many of those common beliefs have some real foundation and thousands of years of experience on the part of those who are compelled to be much out of doors has taught them that with certain positions of the planets come certain changes of the weather. Why this is so they know not; all they know is the coincidence. I have investigated these crude signs and have found real causes at the bottom of some of them. The moon lies on its back when it runs north and hangs on its point when it runs south. As the moon causes tides in the ocean it must also cause tides in the atmosphere, and as it moves from about 24 degrees north of the earth's atmosphere, to the same distance south and the reverse, passing over about 3300 miles of the earth's surface in about fourteen days, or about nine miles north or south and 1000 miles east in twenty-four hours the change necessarily affects the atmosphere and the weather by pulling the storms north or south.

"The changes of the moon occur a little more than six days apart and the regular storm waves pass over this latitude in little less than six days apart, so that if a storm

wave is due about the change of the moon the next storm wave will be due very near the next change of the moon, and these coincidences will occur for several weeks. This has led to the belief that it is the changes of the moon that causes the storm waves. But the coincidences will not continue long and I see no reason why changes of the moon should cause a change in the weather. If the moon crosses the earth's equator a little before a storm wave is due it will cross the earth's equator in two weeks near when a storm wave is due, and if the changes of the moon should occur at the same time it would lead to the belief that it is the changes of the moon that causes these storms of greatest force. The electrical theory of weather changes requires that we follow the laws of electricity and whatever is not in accord with these laws must be rejected, and if these electrical laws will not explain all meteorological phenomena, then the theory must be rejected as a failure.

"The moon is 225,719 miles from the earth at perigee and 251,947 miles at apogee, making a change of 26,228 miles about every fourteen days. This change makes a great difference in the tides and must necessarily make a difference in its effect on the atmosphere. Professor Proctor 24 admitted that it had been fairly proven that more earthquakes occur when the moon is close to the earth because of its greater influence on the tides and if this be true it must also have greater influence on the atmosphere at the same time. " 25

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"Forty years ago the great Faraday said: 'When we remember that the earth itself is a magnet, pervaded in every part by this mighty power, universal and strong as granite itself, we cannot doubt that it is exerting an appointed and essential influence on every particle of matter and in every place wherein it is present. What its great purpose is seems to be looming up in the distance before us; the clouds which obscure our mental sight are daily thinning and I can not doubt that a glorious discovery in natural knowledge is awaiting our age.'" 26

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"CLASSES IN METEOROLOGY.

"I will give special instructions in meteorology to all persons who are subscribers to this paper in which my weekly letters are regularly published. It will be

24 Richard Anthony Proctor.

25 Fort Worth [TX} Gazette, May 21, 1891, p. 1.

necessary for each person to have copies of my published letters. To understand planetary meteorology the astronomy of the solar system must be understood. The astronomy taught in our schools takes the ecliptic, or the earth's orbit, as the basis from which to calculate and this is like beginning the study of arithmetic in decimal fractions. I take the sun's equator as the base from which to calculate, and by this means the solar system and the relations of the planets to each other are much more easily understood. Astronomy as taught in our schools is adapted to surveying and navigation, but not to planetary meteorology. To individuals, clubs and societies that desire to study or discuss planetary meteorology I will furnish diagrams once a week and give special instructions which, with the letters published in this paper, will enable anyone to calculate the future of the weather from the standpoint of planetary meteorology. Parties interested in this matter will please correspond with me. This will give to literary and scientific societies a new feature for their fall and winter meetings, and the expense will be so small that individuals may well afford to engage in the study alone.

"WEATHER AND SCIENCE NOTES.

"Our cold winters are caused by the eastward oscillations of the North Atlantic permanent high barometer, therefore when we have cold winters in the Mississippi valley the winters are warm in Europe. This North Atlantic high barometer controls the routes of our storm centers, and the tropical hurricanes and these control the cold waves. When that high barometer swings eastward our storm centers take southern routes, causing our cold winters, and at the same time that high barometer covers Southern Europe, causing their storm centers to take northern routes, and warm winters ensue. To a less extent this effects the Northeastern states and Canada in a similar manner, and this will cause their coming winter to be less severe than will be experience in the Mississippi valley. A more complete knowledge of the oscillations of the North Atlantic permanent high barometer is indispensable to correct forecasts of the weather on this continent and Europe, and the weather bureaus of the United States and Europe should give this matter careful attention. If we had a correct record of the weather of the Bermudas, the Azores, the West Indies and the Windward islands and a ship signal station between the Bermudas and the Azores we would be in possession of the means by which we could calculate the periods of hurricanes and give warning of their approach. In order to forecast cold waves the weather bureau is looking toward the Northwest, where the cause of these cold waves is to be found in the opposite direction. Cold waves and hurricanes are matters of great importance to the United States and should have more practical investigation by the weather bureau. Such investigations are too expensive for independent meteorologists to undertake. In this matter of the oscillations of the North Atlantic high barometer, Europe is as much interested as is North America, and the expense should be shared by both. A correct foreknowledge of cold and warm winters, early springs, later and early frosts on both

continents and our tropical hurricanes depends on a better knowledge of this North Atlancic [sic] permanent high barometer. In other respects the weather record is good, but in this it is seriously deficient." 27

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"PLANETARY METEOROLOGY.

"It is a species of supreme arrogance for 'orthodox' scientists to pretend that they have investigated planetary meteorology, for not one of them understands it. A number of them have declared that there is nothing in the claim that planets affect the weather, because after long and careful observations they find the changes of the moon have no influence on the weather. Of course not. Planetary meteorology makes no such claims, and therefore the tests they have made have no bearing. Others again declare that they have carefully examined the equinoctial theory, and find it does not hold good. The difficulty with them is that they do not understand the equinoctial theory. It is not claimed that the equinoctial theory demands a storm everywhere on the 21st of March and September. It is not even claimed that these equinoxes originate storms, but that they influence them. We do not look for a storm on the 21st of March, but whenever the regular storm wave is due near that date we expect the equinox to increase its force. In their investigations these 'orthodox' scientists have taken the 21st of March and September as the storm days, and as they find that the equinoctial storms do not uniformly occur on those days they conclude there is nothing in the equinox theory. The trouble is not with the equinoxes, but with the ignorance of those 'orthodox' scientists, who never make a discovery and know nothing outside of the theories announced hundreds of years ago when our predecessors were just emerging from the dark ages. So far as I know there is none but myself who understands the system of planetary meteorology I use as the basis of my calculations, and therefore no one is competent to investigate it. I am the discoverer, not of all the facts, but of important facts which make planetary meteorology a harmonious whole. It is very complicated, however, and if I make mistakes it is not the fault of the system, but because of errors in my calculation. I have no secrets regarding my theory, but no one can expect to understand it in a day. The subject is equal in extent to that of law or politics or theology. Within a year the planets cause about 160 electrical disturbances, and to group these so as to know what storm waves will be affected and to what extend is no small matter, and those scientists who have never given a day's study to the subject are presumptuous when they claim to have investigated that of which they are supremely ignorant.

"It is my design to give as full information as I can on this subject through my

published letters, which go regularly to forty daily papers and a number of weeklies, besides being copied into a large number of weeklies, but some of the dailies and many weeklies are not prepared to publish diagrams and illustrations which are necessary to a complete understanding of the subject. As before stated, subscribers to the paper can obtain these diagrams and illustrations by corresponding with me. I am prepared to give through these public letters during the fall and winter months more complete information as to planetary meteorology and will discuss electricity as the cause of motion. One kind of electricity, the positive being the large and the negative the small quantity, electricity the cause of magnetism, magnetism and attraction identical, every atom of matter endowed with its own power of motion — that power is electricity as manifest in the natural magnet. Each planet revolves on its axis because of its own inherent forces and around the sun because of the movements in that direction of the elements that surround the sun. Sun and planets are not, never were, molten matter, but radiate electricity, not heat. Heat and light do not penetrate space, but originate and are confined to the atmosphere of the sun and planets. The electric envelope of each planet determines its orbit and distance from its primary. The attraction of gravitation is a push. The planets float. The centripetal and centrifugal theories are errors. The calculated revolution on their axis of most of the planets are errors because of their clouded envelopes. Sun spots are similar to our earth storms and are from the same causes. Our storm waves move entirely around the earth and their forces are controlled by planetary positions. Tropical hurricanes cause our cold waves." 28

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"I have now completed all arrangements for giving lessons in meteorology by mail. These lessons will be given to individuals or clubs at $2.50 for thirteen lessons. In a club of five this will cost the members only 50 cents each. No person must be admitted into these clubs who is not a subscriber to this paper, and each must keep a file of my published weekly letters. Each lesson will consist of a weather map, two astronomical illustrations and a letter of special instructions. I have a good number of subscribers to begin with and members can begin the studies at any time in the future.

"My long-range weather forecast has stood the test for a number of years and many persons, especially those interested in agriculture, fruit-raising, coal mines, ice- houses, etc., are in favor of adding this feature to the national weather bureau. I would not desire to make the officers of the national weather bureau responsible for my theories of weather changes, because they know nothing about the principles upon which my forecasts are based, and for the same reason I would not accept any position in the weather bureau that would prevent me from freely presenting my views. I am

not begging the people of the United States for government support, and I will enter into no logrolling scheme for that purpose. My work is giving me a good support, and I am not dissatisfied with my efforts and opportunities. But there would be some advantages to the public and toward perfecting a system of long-range weather forecasts in establishing a bureau of agricultural meteorology.

"I estimate that such a bureau can be put into operation at an expense of $15,000 annually. One man cannot cover all the ground and give to the subject that careful study necessary to perfect the system and make it of practical utility to all interests. There are three natural divisions of labor in these long-range forecasts, and each of these divisions should have a man at its head peculiarly fitted for the work. One of these departments includes the periodical storm waves that cross the continents, the changes of weather accompanying them, and the cool waves, hot waves and frosts. Another department would include rainfall and drouths and a third department would give special attention to plant life, making estimates of the effects that coming weather will have on the growing crops of the world. If we could know the future of the weather farmers would better know what kind of crops to plant.

"In order to make this bureau of agricultural meteorology accountable directly to the people and prevent it from becoming a tool in the hands of cereal speculators I propose that its chief be elected biennially by the lower house of congress and that the chief appoint his clerk and two assistants. Should such a bureau be established I would probably be a candidate for the first place and Prof. Blake 29 of Topeka, Kan., would be my choice for the department of rainfall and drouth. He is a remarkably well-informed man on these subjects, besides being a man of very considerable ability in other matters. My choice for the department of plant life would be Prof. Mansill 30 of Rock Island, Ill. He is well-informed in astronomy, meteorology, geology and chemistry, and would be a valuable man in that work.

"This bureau would use the information gathered by the present weather bureau, and as it would not make daily weather predictions, there would be no conflict between it and the weather bureau officials. Let the latter pursue their work. At most there could only be a rivalry between the two systems and the public would

29 C. C. Blake of Topeka, Kansas, was described in 1889 as "the most eminent weather prophet of the 'planetary' school" ("False Weather Prophets," Dec. 26, 1889 Daily Inter-Ocean of Chicago IL, p. 6). In publicity material that year, Blake wrote: "For more than thirty years I have been at work calculating the weather by means of Astronomical Mathematics. My system is purely astronomical, and I have nothing to do with astrology; I deal only with the rigid laws of cause and effect. For the last fifteen years I have published the result of my calculations in the form of weather predictions and the verification has been over 90 per cent. till this year. As the year is only half out, I do not know what it will be this season — probably not less than 80 per cent." The Bridgeton [NJ] Evening News, Sept. 9, 1889. A decade earlier a reviewer of Blake's almanac noted: "For the past two years his predictions have been remarkably correct, and have become a necessity in every family." The Cleveland (OH) Plain Dealer, Feb. 13, 1879, p. 2.

soon determine which can furnish the most valuable weather forecasts. 31

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"ELECTRICITY.

"All Physical Phenomena Directly Traceable to this Energy.

"Twenty-three hundred years ago Aristotle declared there is but one single universal force, and that declaration entitles him to be called the father of science. But the dark ages came and crushed that truth to earth to rise again in the last years of the 19th century. When the clouds of the dark ages began to clear away a great mind declared a half truth in the nebular theory of creation, which for more than a century has been taken as a basis of astronomy, geology and meteorology. This nebular theory like the Ptolemaic theory of astronomy, is requiring of our astronomers, geologists and meteorologists constant inventions to make the nebular hypothesis and the consequent heat theory of force to hold together, and these invented theories are becoming so numerous that the nebular theory is tottering to its fall. For the salvation of science it is just as necessary to return to the unity of force, as announced by Aristotle, as it was to Christianity that Paul should establish the unity of spiritual force in the truth of one God. The nebular theory stands to scientific truth in about the same relation that the theory of a million gods did to true religion in the days of Christ. If we go back to the truth of one universal force, we do not only lift science from the mire, but we do for the scientific world that which the doctrine of one God did for the religious world.

"Prof. Wm. H. Preece, London's leading electrician, declares that 'all physical phenomena, without a single exception, may be traced to the mere transformation of electrical energy.' That is a reassertion of the great Aristotelian truth, and is in harmony with my views as to the physical forces. There is but one physical force, and that force is electricity, or matter in motion. Its origin is found in the condensation of the diffused matter of space.

"As this ether of space condenses into the solid bodies as the meteors, comets, moons, planets, suns and the clusters of stars, it is, by these condensations, caused to converge toward these common centers in straight lines, and after moving through them and depositing its grosser materials, radiates to other bodies gathering more matter in space. This movement of that which has been called the ether of space constitutes all there is of electricity and of force, and is the basis of my meteorological

theories. Electricity is the universal force, is the cause of light, heat, magnetism, attraction, repulsion, gravitation, earthquakes, the high and low barometers, heat in the earth, volcanoes and is the life principle of the vegetable and animal kingdoms. It moves the atmosphere lifts the moisture and is the force of the tornado. Every heavenly body, from the meteors to the suns, have grown from atoms by condensations. Suns and planets are caused to revolve on their axes by the electrical force we see in the natural magnet and planets and satellites revolve around their primaries because of the elements that surround and revolve with the latter. The sun is not and the earth never was a hot body; neither light nor heat comes from the sun, but are effects of electrical radiations; the planets, satellites and asteroids entered our solar system as comets and each will continue to grow by accumulations from the ether of space electricity till it becomes a sun and the center of a solar system. The earth's diameter at its equators is greater than at its poles because of vegetable and coral growths. Coal is not of vegetable origin. The moon is not a dead world.

"All storms are whirlwinds and north of latitude 30 they move entirely around the earth, never die, and they increase and decrease in force by reason of the position of the sun, moon and planets. The high and low barometers constitute electric pairs and the currents of electricity that rise in the low come down in the high forming electric circuits. Cold waves, early fall and late spring frosts are caused by tropical hurricanes. Early springs, late falls, cold and warm winters, drouth, rain bolts, excessive heat, extreme cold, great storm periods and the location of storms are governed by the position of the planets." 32

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"STUDY ELECTRICITY.

"Of all the subjects now attracting general attention none are of more importance than electricity, and there is certainly a very great demand for information on that subject. More attention should be given this subject in our institutions of learning, especially in the high school, seminaries, colleges and universities.

"Electricity is destined to supersede the use of steam as a motive power, gas for light and wood and coal for fuel, and only one or two more such men as Edison are necessary in order to usher in these important events much earlier than the masses will be prepared for them.

"The time is probably not far away when our railroads will be operated by electricity instead of steam, and this change alone will require a vast amount of

education. In all affairs of the world young men must be prepared to take the places of the older ones, and railroad men, especially train crews, of the near future, must understand electricity. They must possess a vast amount more information than do the average graduates of our higher schools on this subject.

"To a great extent our common schools are failures compared with what they might be, because they take up too much time in efforts to give each pupil a general instead of a special education. On an average it requires ten school years for a pupil to graduate in our public schools, and one-fifth of that time is used up in the study of geography. Studying the details of the geography of Asiatic Russia and many other countries is useful to very few, and in a similar manner much useless time is spent on other studies that might with more profit, be given to the study of electricity and other necessary studies, especially by those who are liable to be called on to work with electricity.

"Electricity is certainly the life principle of the animal and vegetable kingdoms, the motive power that sends the life-blood through the arteries and veins, the sap to the vegetable cells, and when these ideas fully dawn upon the slowly-progressive mind of the world of man, a greater demand for knowledge on the subject of electricity than has ever been dreamed of will spring up.

"Add to all this the fact that electricity is the force that causes all weather changes and that this force constitutes the only true basis for the science of meteorology and the argument is complete that no time should be lost in establishing electricity as one of the principal studies in our schools.

"At this time it may be considered premature to surmise as to the ultimate source of generated electricity when we have passed the rapids of discovery through which we are now going, but I will venture a few suggestions. I believe that all space is filled with matter, either electric or condensed. We find least electricity where we find most condensed matter, and most electricity where we find least condensed matter. The higher we go into the atmosphere the lighter is the matter composing it, and the greater are the quantity and tension of electricity, and when we go to sea level we find this order is reversed.

"This leads up to the idea I desire to express as to the future source of electricity for use as a motive power, light, fuel, etc.

"Its fountain head being above or outside our atmosphere, or the lower and denser portions of it, we must tap that great fountain and bring our electricity from above.

"This idea is not inconsistent with the known laws of electricity. All scientists hold that space is positive and the earth negative, or in more easily understood terms, the large quantity is above and the smaller quantity in the earth. Benjamin Franklin brought down the electricity from above on the string of a kite, showing that it moves from the atmosphere above to the earth below. All electricians say that the higher strata of clouds are positive as to the next below them and these in turn are positive as to still lower strata, while the lower clouds are positive as to the earth. All this means that the electricity comes from above, which is not only in accord with the suggestion that we must tap space above us for electricity but is also evidence in support of my other theory that the earth grows by condensations of electricity, those condensations being the origin of electrical force, which is only the attenuated matter of space set in motion.

"Edison's theory, so far as it has been made known, is that we must either get electricity from the earth or transmit it from some great water power. I believe that he, or someone soon to take up his work, will find this to be an error, and instead they will look aloft. So far as I know it has not been tested, but when it is I believe a much greater volume and tension of electricity can be generated on top of the highest mountains than at sea-level.

"If some scheme could be devised by which to draw from the immense quantity of electricity existing in the upper atmosphere, then I have another suggestion to make. I believe the atmosphere and water, as well as other condensed matter, to be condensations of electricity, and we must discover how to resolve these into their original electricity. I have long believed this to be the principle of the Keely motor, which has not yet been perfected, and if Mr. Keely 33 fails to solve this mystery with his 'atomizer,' as he very significantly calls it, the times will soon furnish another who will take up the work where he left it and discover the secret of resolving water or atmosphere, perhaps both, into electricity.

"Necessity is often the propagator of discoveries as well as the mother of invention, and of necessity a great discovery in the field of electricity must soon be made. Great improvements have been made in the appliances for controlling and

33 John Worrell Keely. For more on the Keely motor, see "The Keely Motor Secret" by C. J. Bloomfield Moore in Lippincott's Monthly Magazine, August 1887, p. 300 ff. http://books.google.com/books? id=07MRAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA300 and the same author's book, Keely and His Discoveries: Aerial Navigation by Clara Jessup Bloomfield (1893) http://www.archive.org/details/keelyhisdiscover00moorrich . Researcher Dale Pond notes at the site just linked that the book is a compilation of past magazine articles with key details edited out. Pond wrote in 2003, "That Keely, [Walter] Russell and [Nikola] Tesla knew basic natural laws and principles that we do not is a given. After nineteen years of investigating their works it is obvious that the one single element they understood one way and we another is the nature, structure and dynamics of vibration and oscillation (or 'wave' as Russell termed it)." http://www.svpvril.com/pdffiles/What_Vibration_Is.pdf .

using electricity, while but little progress has been made for many years in the base of operations in generating electricity. As I believe, a wrong theory has prevented progress. Electricity has been looked upon by all 'orthodox' scientists as only incidental, accidental, an effect with no permanent and prominent place in the great economy of nature.

"We must reverse all this and give to this force its true position which is the cause of causes, the one great, original force, while everything else in nature, mind and matter, in all their relations and conditions are only effects. If our electricians once learn that electricity is only matter in motion, coming from all points in space, adding its atoms to the gross matter of our earth, they will then understand that everything is made from condensations of this electric ether and they will set about resolving matter back into electricity for use as fuel, light and power. On this line I firmly believe that a great discovery will be made within a few years which will revolutionize many industries and make a vast demand for those who have knowledge of the practical workings of electricity.

"For years I have believed that the time would come when, by chemical action, water, air and many solids would be exploded as we now explode gunpowder, and that instead of transforming the matter into gases, as in the case of gunpowder, it would be resolved into its original atom, electricity, as it existed before being condensed. Study electricity." 34

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"THE PLANET MARS

"Astronomers are generally agreed that the two moons of Mars came to that planet within a few years past, and this is a very strong argument in favor of the electrical theory. The nebular theory holds that the earth was a molten mass, and when its crust had formed its cooling interior shrank away from this outer crust, which finally broke it, and coming together formed our moon. This idea contains the gist of the whole nebular theory of creation.

"The electrical theory holds that bodies of mater are growing in all parts of chaotic outer space by accumulations and condensations of electric ether now, as has been the case in all the past, and that these bodies come to our solar system as comets, occasionally one of them being caught by the magnetic influences of our solar system, becoming a planet, a moon or an asteroid. There are about three hundred of these small planets moving around the sun in orbits between Mars and Jupiter, and our

astronomers believe that the two moons of Mars are identical with these small planets called asteroids, and that they came from the asteroidal belt within ten years past.

"The moons of Mars are very small, said to be not more than fifty miles in diameter, and are not easily seen except when Mars is at perihelion — nearest point to the sun — and the earth at the same time between Mars and the sun, and this occurs only once in about nine years. These moons were discovered at the last of these conjunctions, and therefore came to Mars between the last two such conjunctions.

"Unquestionably Mars received her moons from outer space and not by the breaking up of an outer crust formed by cooling and this is not only evidence, it is positive proof, that the earth received its moon in the same manner. The indisputable facts connected with the moons of Mars destroys the nebular theory, for if these moons came to that planet from outer space then it can not be successfully denied that the earth came to the sun in the same manner: and in these two little moons of our near neighbor we have incontrovertible evidence in favor of the theory that the sun, earth, planets and moons slowly grow in outer space and are caught by our solar system as it moves constantly into new space never before occupied by it.

"Another evidence is that Jupiter in recent years caught a comet and held it, revolving around it like one of its moons for six months, and finally, when it did break away, changing its orbit so that it revolves around the sun in about seven years, instead of twenty-seven as before. This has occurred twice with the same comet and it will, probably, become the fifth moon of Jupiter.

"One of the moons of Mars moves around that planet in less time than it revolves for Mars to revolve on its axis. If this was the case with our moon it would rise in the west and set in the east. This appears to refute the theory that the elements surrounding the sun, earth and planets, revolving with them, cause the planets and moons to revolve around their primaries, for these elements move slower than the revolution of the bodies, while this moon of Mars moves faster than the planet revolves, causing that moon to rise in the west and set in the east, relative to that planet.

"But when this moon came to Mars it necessarily moved with the velocity of a comet and its momentum would, for a time, carry it around its primary with great speed. Astronomers say that our moon is losing time, decreasing in velocity, and they fairly prove this by the dates of ancient eclipses, and no doubt this rapidly moving moon of Mars will lose velocity till it is in accord with the elements that revolve around that planet.

"Schiaparel, 35 the noted Italian astronomer, says that within a few years past wonderful changes have taken place in the physical geography of Mars. The seas have changed their beds, the continents have broken up, some of them disappeared, and great rivers, or arms of the seas, occupy new channels. Such would be the natural consequence of acquiring a moon, and this may suggest an explanation of the great catastrophes that are spoken of in the Bible and the legends that have come down from prehistoric times through all the races of men.

"Either the acquisition of a new planet like Mercury, or of a moon, or the striking of the earth by a comet would cause events similar to the flood, the rising and sinking of the seas, or the great changes that mark the geological ages of the earth and the changes of animal life that are so distinctly marked by the geological epochs of the earth.

"The newly acquired moons of Mars marks an epoch in the evolutions of astronomy and is probably a catastrophe on that planet such as must have occurred on the earth causing the great epochs of its growth which probably are identical with the six periods of creation spoken of in our Bible Genesis.

"Astronomers have but little to say about these newly acquired moons of Mars, for they cannot account for them by the old theories. They see their long and beautiful astronomical dissertations falling into disrepute because they were builded on the sands of the nebular theory, and they prefer to see their rounded sentences fade silently away to nothingness." 36

+ + +

"PLANETARY INFLUENCES

"I have one more quotation to make from that forcible writer Dr. Henry Raymond Rogers, of Dunkirk, N. Y. In a recent paper he says: 'It is a fundamental principle in electrical science that every movement of one body near another disturbs and puts in motion the electric currents in both bodies. Extending the law from the lesser or terrestrial to the grander or celestial field the inference becomes legitimate that the starry worlds whirling with inconceivable velocity in space evolve between the electrical currents in great cosmical circuits; that the sun and earth revolving on their axes and in their orbits thus become actually vast magnets — electric machines, or batteries, through the action of which currents incessantly pass to and fro between those bodies. In this manner is explained the source and mode of development of the

35 Giovanni Virginio Schiaparelli, who was author, among other texts, of Astronomy in the Old Testament http://books.google.com/books?id=nxgqAAAAYAAJ .

universal force.

"'The problem of the action of force at a distance, without intervention of some medium of transmission, which has puzzled philosophers for centuries, has its full and complete solution in the action of electricity in vacuous space. Upon this hypothesis is rationally explained how each planet in our solar system may have identically the same relations with the sun and her sunheat, sunlight, chemical action and gravity are developed and act precisely the same at Neptune, nearly three billions of miles from the sun as at the earth, the former being thiry-three times farther from the sun than the latter.

"'A mighty cosmical essence, or spirit or soul pervades, all worlds, all life, all force. This subtle, invisible entity animates and controls the whole universe of matter regardless of time, space or distance. Mind as well as matter is its realm and herein we have a glimpse of that grand unity which science has ever sought but never discovered.

"'Science assets that gravity acts instantaneously throughout the universe. If its force was obstructed in interstellar space its operation would be impracticable. It annihilates space and distance. So does electricity and in view of this fact may not the gravitative force be purely electrical?

"'Faraday, the greatest philosopher in this field who every lived, continued for thirty years to assert his conviction that such was the case. Newton held to the same theory. The latter taught that the ultimate particulars of matter are endowed with inherent forces or powers of attraction and repulsion. He thus recognized in gravity the operation of a dual principle which exists in no other force than electricity.

"'That the great gravitative force is electrical is fully demonstrable. It is a fundamental law of electrical action that all bodies susceptible to electrical excitation become centers of attraction through the operation of the electrical circuit. A body of soft iron is thus made magnetic and retains its power of attraction during its continuance in the circuit. So the sun and earth being constituents in our great terrasolar circuit, they and all things they contain become vitalized with the power which we call gravitation.

"'The sun and earth become vast magnets having magnetic axes and poles and are held in their relative positions through the action of their polarities. Gravity is therefore a purely electrical phenomenon explainable only upon the hypotheses of the uninterrupted action of electricity in vacuous space.'" 37

+ + +

"WEATHER PROPHETS.

"The world persists in calling them 'weather prophets,' and I do not care if it does. The term is a misnomer for there is no prophecy about foretelling the weather. When the foretelling of events is based upon known facts it ceases to be prophecy and becomes a scientific or mathematical calculation. Prophecy comes by revelation from the supreme power, forecasts of the weather by calculating and reasoning from cause to effect. True prophecy cannot err, because the supreme power cannot err and without revelation from the supreme there can be no prophecy. But forecasts of the weather always contain more or less errors and the weather prophet who gives the most details in forecasting the weather and makes the least number of mistakes, only demonstrates that he reasons from the right cause to the right effect and proves his skill as a mathematician.

"These statements of facts prove that Professors Tice 38 , Mansill, Blake, Hicks 39 ,

38 John H. Tice, author of two volumes which he published in reverse order: Elements of Meteorology, Pt. II: Meteorological Cycles (1875) http://www.archive.org/details/elementsofmeteor00ticerich and A New System of Meteorology, Designed for Schools and Private Students. Descriptive and explanatory of all the facts, and demonstrative of all the causes and laws of atmospheric phenomena, Vol. I (1878) http://www.archive.org/details/anewsystemmeteo00ticegoog . "The meteorological cycle, as verified by Prof. Tice, seems to be well demonstrated by his array of historical facts. His forecasts of the weather during the year 1875 was verified with surprising accuracy, and we have no doubt that his theory in regard to sun- spots, earthquakes, auroras, and magnetic disturbances is well confirmed. However, it is to be considered that other elements and influences may operate to cause abundance or scarcity in stock and grain crops." Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices: What years to make money on pig-iron, hogs, corn, and provisions by Samuel Benner, p. 122 http://www.archive.org/search.php?query=benner's%20prophecies %20AND%20mediatype:texts . In Benner's book "he noted cycles of about eleven years in the prices of corn and hogs, twenty-seven years in prices of pig-iron, and fifty-four years in depressions and panics in general business, based on tables carefully prepared from statistical data. Now, these periods are all purely astronomical and they carry out the idea that provisions, crops, and trades are affected, not only by the solar 'blood circulation,' but also by other planetary influences; and here, let it be remarked, that 1874 was a year of great depression in the production of iron, and twenty-seven years later we see signs of a similar crisis, the indications of which have probably led to the recent formation of the great Metallurgie Trust. Judging now from Benner's tables, while 1900 and 1901 have seen a repetition of the commercial facts of 1878 and 1889, and while 1902 has been inclined to panics, this last period will be followed by six dull years; in the same way, 1882 and 1893-4, having been times of the greatest Sun-spot activity, the maximum period of the next cycle culminated in 1905 and 1906, with mining and financial panics in 1907-8." Scientific Corroborations of Theosophy: A Vindication of the Secret Doctrine by A. Marques (1908) http://books.google.com/books? id=bz4MAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA82 .

Lillingston 40 , Smith 41 , Cather 42 and others are not weather prophets but meteorologists, entitled to the prefix 'Professor,' because they are teaching a branch of learning, this being one of the definitions given by Webster.

"The two appellations, 'Prophet' and 'Professor' do not belong together. No one ever heard of a prophet being called 'Professor.' But the term 'weather prophet' appears to have come to stay and therefore we may accept it under protest. I want to talk about weather prophets.

"Professor Tice of St. Louis, was the original discoverer of that upon which electrical meteorology is founded. He combated the heat theory of force and declared that electricity is the motive power of the universe. He discovered the periods of four principle storm waves and attributed their cause to an inner mercurial planet called Vulcan. He was right as to the principle storm wave periods but his theory about Vulcan is a very doubtful one.

"Professor Tice in his new system of meteorology gave to each planet four points in its revolution around the sun at which it caused general electrical disturbances throughout the solar system. In this he was mistaken as to all the planets except Uranus, Saturn, Jupiter and the Earth. He was certainly in error as to Mars, Venus, Mercury and perhaps Vulcan. He also believed that the four points around the sun called heliocentric longitude 80, 170, 260 and 350 were fixed disturbing points for all the planets and this was a very serious error because this is not in accord with astronomical events.

"The effects of the moon on our weather was entirely unknown to Professor Tice. He seems never to have applied his theory of planetary influences to the moon, perhaps because that orb rotates so slowly on its axis always keeping the same side to the earth. He made no effort in his general forecasts to locate the storm centers but gave the dates on which he supposed the planetary equinoxes would affect the weather of the whole earth.

"Professor Tice discovered the relations of the transitory high barometer to each other and to the weather, and the United States weather bureau appropriated his

40 Charles H. Lillingston, the son-in-law and partner of Tice, according to a list of "Weather Almanacs and Predictions" found in Notes and Queries and Historic Magazine, February 1900, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, p. 60 http://books.google.com/books?id=neIRAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA60 . He is the author of the article "John H. Tice and the Science of Weather Forecasting," found herein in Appendix II. In Appendix III, Lillingston discusses his own work in another article from his pen.

41 Walter H. Smith, "who has the reputation of being the best and most trustworthy weather prophet in Canada" Manawatu Herald of Foxton, New Zealand, March 5, 1892, Page 2. http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=MH18920305.2.15 .

discovery without giving him credit for it.

"Of all the meteorologists now dead Professor Tice deserves to be recognized as the greatest, for he pointed out the establishment of the only true system of meteorology.

"Professor Mansill of Rock Island Ill., was the first, perhaps, to lay down a system of meteorology based on planetary influences, and while there is much truth in his system he only deals with the minor and less important influences of gravity or magnetism affected by conjunctions, perihelions and perigees as being the cause of our greatest electrical disturbances but does not recognize the influences of equinoxes. This clearly shows the difference between the Mansill and Tice systems. They were each based upon the two distinct electrical theories, the principal idea of one being the equinoxes and the other conjunctions.

"Prof. Blake, of Topeka, Kansas, is uncommunicative as to his theories, but a long and careful study of his writings has revealed the basis of his calculations. He does not wait for conjunctions or equinoxes, but calculates the influence of the sun, moon and planets on the electric currents, the waters and the atmosphere of the earth at all times. He believes that every particle of matter and every heavenly body is impelled toward every other with an equal force at all times varied only by distance and mass. He takes no account of conjunctions except the doubled influence of two or more bodies when situated near each other, and thus increasing their attraction of gravitation or the repulsive power of the surrounding elements as he would call it. He does not believe in attraction, but declares that gravitation is repulsion.

"Prof. Cather of Ashville, Alabama, based his calculations on the effects of the moon. He claimed that the weather is similar every twenty-eight days basing the idea on the distance of the moon north or south of the earth's equator. He claimed that as the moon reaches the same latitude, going north or south, it will have the same effect on the weather that it had twenty-eight days before, when it was at the same latitude and going in the same direction. He made allowance for the seasons, but gave no influence to the planets.

"These are the four systems of meteorology. Smith of Canada, follows Mansill and also includes the conduct of animals and recurring periods of weather changes as taught by Vennor. 43 Prof. Hicks of St. Louis, follows Prof. Tice and has not improved

43 Henry G. Vennor of Montreal, Canada. Of his method he said: "In brief, the basis of my work is the

result of observation and the comparison of cause with cause, effect with effect, season with season. It is a

mere matter of

have builded upon it — and built safely, I think. What was that discovery? Just this: that seasons and years recur in couplets and triads. Rules applicable to the first season or year of a couplet are equally applicable to the second season or year of that couplet, and precisely so in the triads. Such is the main superstructure of

I discovered one fact, and proving it to be a fact beyond question or dispute, I

on his old methods. Hicks also uses the Herschell theory of the effect of moon changes on the weather. 44 Prof. Lillingston follows Tice.

"I have carefully studied all these theories, have tested them by the records of the Washington weather bureau, and find some truth in each of the four systems. I have taken those parts of Professors Tice, Mansill, Blake and Cather's systems that stand the tests of the records and with what I have been able to discover, have formed the electric system of meteorology. I include nothing in this system that is not in harmony with the laws of electricity and magnetism, nothing that will not bear investigation in the light of the weather records of this and all other countries." 45

+ + +

"ELECTRO-METEOROLOGY.

"I am not able yet to avoid errors in my weather forecasts. But I very seldom err as to the dates on which the storm centers and cool waves cross the continent. My mistakes are confined principally to the force and latitude of these disturbances. Even in these particulars a very large percent of the forecasts are verified.

"I have no disposition to evade the responsibility of my mistakes, but rather prefer to frankly state wherein the principal difficulties lie. The responsibilities of these mistakes must rest upon myself and not on the system, for if the system of electro-meteorology was thoroughly understood, there would be no errors in weather forecasts. The fault lies with man and not with the laws of nature.

"As I have repeatedly stated, there are four storm waves passing around the earth from west to east between 30 and 60 degrees of north latitude, making 45 degrees of north latitude an average center of their paths around the earth.

"The average distance of these storm waves apart — from west to east — is about 3500 miles. The high barometer — that which gives us the cool wave and clearing weather — follows about 1750 miles behind the low barometer, and these

my work. But I soon found that the system was not bound down to a mere generality, embracing only a season or year in its entirety. Experiment evidenced that the same calculations could be made for a month, and that, too, with an exactness that at first appeared to be surprising. And I pursued my work still further until now I do not hesitate to bring my calculations to within a week. Yes, I have been able to designate particular days. That is usually my rule in the text of my predictions. But the public should understand that, except in special cases, I never risk everything upon any single 24 hours. I have not yet reached that point in my system, although there is no telling what will be accomplished in the near future." The New York Times, Aug. 25, 1881. A copy of Vennor's Almanac and Weather Record for 1878-9 is online at http://books.google.com/books?id=lycXAAAAYAAJ .

44 Appendix IV herein presents the "Herschel" table via Bible commentator Adam Clarke.

high and low barometers are strung around the earth like a string of beads, and all moving eastward.

"We have made a success in finding the dates on which these high or low barometers, or storm waves, will pass any given meridian of longitude. That part of the system is a decided success.

"It makes a very great difference in the weather as to whether a storm center passes south or north of a locality, and in locating the latitude of a storm center mistakes are sometimes made. The storm wave may be exactly on time as predicted, but if it goes by on the south, cold weather will follow, while if it goes by on the north, warm weather will follow. A few errors are unavoidable at this time in locating the latitude of the storm waves.

"The most difficult matter to calculate is the force of the storm. This is very important, for the force of the storm has much to do with the character of the weather.

"The electrical influences of the sun, moon and planets affect every part of the earth at the same moment, but these influences will manifest themselves in one or all of the four storm waves that are moving around the earth at about 3500 miles apart. The difficulty lies in determining which of these four storm waves will be most affected, and herein is where most of my errors occur.

"It is not difficult to understand that the planetary influences are conveyed to the storm centers through the earth's electric currents, and if we fully understand the laws that govern the magnetic forces of the solar system, we would make no mistakes in forecasting the location and force of the storm centers and their influences on the weather.

"In the latter part of January, I had calculated the electrical influences would largely increase the force of the storms due to cross the continent from the 25th to the 29th of January. The result, however, was that the storm wave preceding it received almost the full force of the electrical influences, causing a great storm in Western Europe at the time we expected a great storm here.

"An intelligent investigation will satisfy any reasonable mind that we are very near to one of the greatest discoveries of modern times. We know the dates on which the storm waves will cross the continent, we know, approximately, how to calculate the latitude of these storm waves, we know the dates on which these storm waves will have greatest and least force, and the greatest difficulty yet to surmount is to know which of the four storm waves will be most affected by the planetary influences.

"Two thirds of the time I can succeed in rightly determining this difficult problem, but the other third is what stands in the way of complete success. I know where to look to find the key to this difficult part of the weather problem, and have clearly indicated this to my readers. I expect to discover the key and then to avoid errors.

"If I make one mistake out of ten forecasts a certain class of critics will ridicule my work. Let them ridicule. I know that the system of electro-meteorology has the only true basis, and that time, I hope a comparatively short time, will vindicate it.

"But readers of my work must not now expect infallible forecasts, for the system is not yet perfect. They should also remember that my own time and money, aided by fifty daily newspapers, are working out this great problem without assistance from the general government." 46

+ + +

"I have often stated, and will repeat, that very severe storms will occur on this continent during March. Western Europe has experienced the greatest storms of the century during the past six monthc [sic], and it is almost impossible for this country not to go through the same experience during the next six months.

"Even orthodox scientists have given warning of the great disturbances near at hand, because of the great sun spots and other remarkable disturbances now apparent on the sun. Spots on the sun, they declare, cause an increase in the force of our earth storms through the agency of the electrical forces.

"They also declare that the perihelion of Jupiter causes a maximum of sun spots and an increase in the auroral displays. All this indicates that the men who have posed as the leaders in scientific research are being forced to acknowledge the influence of the planets on our earth, and that electricity is the medium.

"But in claiming that sunspots can cause auroras and other earth disturbances, and that the perihelia of the planets cause sunspots, these great scientists wholly disregard cause and effect — disregard all the laws of electricity and magnetism.

"Jupiter is now about forty millions of miles nearer the sun than it was six years ago, and if we follow the laws of electricity, that would increase the electrical forces of the sun and earth, which in turn would increase the evaporation and cloudliness on the sun, thereby preventing sunspots; therefore the perihelia of the planets cannot

cause sunspots and the sunspots cannot cause earth disturbances.

"Sun spots must necessarily be of exactly the same nature as our high barometers, and our cold waves, causing large areas of clear weather, corresponding to the large dark spots on the sun.

"The faculæ, or bright spots, on the sun are the same as our low barometers where we have densely cloudy weather. Whatever causes our storm centers, our high and low barometers, our cold waves, also cause the sun spots, and I assert without fear of contradiction, that it is the equinox of Jupiter and not his perihelion that causes the increase of auroras and sun spots.

"On the night of February 13, when the great aurora lighted up the northern heavens — also the region of the south pole, no doubt, although we have no news from that part of the earth — Jupiter was within two degrees of his equinox while he was fourteen degrees from his perihelion, therefore the electric tension of the sun was very great and only needed an outlet in order to shock or electrify the whole solar system.

"The electrifying event occurred on the 13th, when Venus passed the earth's equator and the earth passed the equator of Mars. Anyone who has studied the nature of electrical currents in connection with revolving globes will readily see the logic in these statements.

"But the difficulty in the way of orthodox scientists is that they still consider the sun as a burning body, instead of, as it really is, a body very much like the earth, with its seas, continents, mountains, valleys, clouds and storms, all affected by the very same laws and in the same manner as are the various parts of our earth.

"Knowing of the approach of the equinoxes of Saturn and Jupiter, I gave warning nearly a year ago that 1892 would be a year of great storms all around the earth, and that these great disturbances would reach their maximum force in the four months from March 1 to June 30.

"Since the great auroral display February 13, orthodox scientists are predicting the same increase of disturbances that I did a year ago.

"Spots on the sun and storms all around the earth have been increasing for six months past at least, and they will continue to increase for at least months to come. But both sun spots and earth storms are effects of the same cause. The planets and sun electrify each other just as revolving magnets in the electro-dynamo machine affect each other.

"The time appears to be rapidly approaching when the electrical theory of force in the universe will take the places of the nebular and heat theories and electro- meteorology dethrone the chaotic world of chance ideas that have long ruled in the weather bureau of the United States." 47

+ + +

"NATURE AND MOVEMENTS OF STORMS.

"Readers are so forgetful, that it is necessary to dwell on some of the most important features of weather changes. Entirely too many readers, who are much interested in the weather, misunderstand what is meant when I specify the date on which a storm wave is due. Nothing but the tariff and silver discussions can be more generally misunderstood than the term 'storm wave,' and still there is no way for me to avoid using it. No other term will supply its place, and therefore, in order to understand my forecasts, the reader must understand what is meant by 'storm wave.'

"It does not necessarily imply a storm, or rain, or snow, or hail, or wind, but it may include all of these. It does, however, almost universally imply wind from the east, warmer weather, wind changing to west and cooler, in rotation as stated. The storm wave may pass centrally over any point and still the weather remain clear throughout, but the warm wave, change of wind and cool wave are sure to accompany almost every such storm wave.

"If the storm wave passed by to the north, the wind will change from east by way of the south to the west, and the cool wave following it will not bring a very great fall in the temperature. If the storm wave moves by to the south, the wind will change from east to west by way of the north, and a cold wave with low temperatures will follow.

"When the conditions are favorable to rain, the low barometer of the storm wave fills up with clouds, except in its center, which is usually very warm and partly cloudy or clear.

"When I expect rain, snow, wind or a storm, I say so in plain terms, but when only the term storm wave is used, it does not portend any unusual event.

"The discovery of the period of these storm waves and the laws that govern their movements, is the most important ever made in reference to meteorology, and

gives promise of reliable, long-range forecasts, especially if the system should be developed by government aid.

"The cause of these storm waves is somewhat of a mystery. My theory is that they are caused by a circuit of electricity rising in the low barometer and coming down in the high. The low being a column of rising air draws to it the clouds and moisture that makes up the storm center.

"The storm center is the low barometer, which, with the high barometer, is

called the storm wave. The high barometer pours cool air into the rear of the low and

it is often the case that rain does not occur till the high barometer comes in and the

snow storms always occur after the main portion of the low has passed and as the high, with its cool wave, comes in.

"My forecasts are for the front part of the storm wave, which often causes no rain, but it may be known by the rising temperature. Herein is where the weather bureau ought to be useful. I can give the dates of the storm waves, but cannot always tell, so far ahead, whether the precipitation will occur in front, rear, north side or south side of the low or storm center. Knowing where the storm center is, and the conditions surrounding it, the weather bureau ought to make few mistakes, but it makes many, and its forecasts are of no use to farmers, coal dealers, small dealers in products, etc.

"These storm waves are strung around the earth in these northern latitudes like

a string of beads, and their movements cause them to jostle up against each other like

[railroad] cars when the engine suddenly puts on brakes or makes a sudden start. These jostlings of the storm waves against each other cause them to lose or gain as much as a days' time, and therefore I do not pretend to forecast their time nearer than twenty-four hours.

"When these storm waves are driven north by the influences of the moon or the planets, we have excessively hot weather and drouth, and when, for a period of several weeks, they are driven south by the same influences, we have cool seasons as we had in May, June and July, 1891.

"Cold winters occur when the paths of the storms are south, as will be the case next January. Warm winters surely follow when the storm paths are far to the north.

"These storm waves do not move in perfect circles around the geographical north pole, but around the magnetic north pole, which is about 70 degrees north and 97 west, or 20 degrees south of the geographical north pole, and northwest of Hudson's bay. There is another magnetic pole in Northern Asia, around which the

storms of that continent probably make a semi-circle.

"Many of our storm waves cross Europe and Asia, but some of them appear to pass between the two north magnetic poles. The tropical hurricanes appear to move almost directly toward the geographical north pole of the earth.

"In order that they may better understand by forecasts, I hope that readers will try to retain the above explanations, and not confound the widely differing terms, storm and storm wave." 48

+ + +

"Professor Frank H. Bigelow, of the National Weather Bureau, has published an important paper in a leading astronomical journal 49 . He has been, for several years, one of the weather bureau's scientific experts, and his conclusions are very important to meteorology. He says: 'The observed facts pertaining to solar physics, to terrestrial magnetism and to meteorology have been such to render it very probable that these three distinct branches of science are in reality parts of one general cosmical science.'

"That is precisely the theory for which planetary meteorologists have been contending. Professor Bigelow was selected by the Weather Bureau to investigate this very question, and from the senseless opposition of the Weather Bureau officials toward independent planetary meteorologists, I infer that Professor Bigelow was expected to annihilate the theory that moon and planets have anything to do with our weather changes, but Professor Bigelow says that the magnetic forces of the sun and earth are closely related to our weather changes and auroral displays.

"Professor Bigelow writes to convince scientists, showing no care for other intelligent classes of people, therefore his language is hard and needs interpretation. Men whose salaries are paid by the government should be compelled to write in the American language, of which our American newspapers are the classics. Our American newspapers use the pure American language, furnish the channel through which American intelligence is reached, and therefore one who fills a public capacity at the expense of the people, should give his discoveries to the public in our newspaper language.

"I quote again from the same paper: 'The periodic occurrences of manifestations of energy in sun spots, the solar corona, the faculae and prominences, on one hand; the aurora, variations of the terrestrial magnetic field, and the fluctuations of the

48 The Fort Worth [TX] Gazette, March 17, 1892.

meteorological elements on the other, have all indicated a fundamental system of physical forces embracing the sun and earth in its operation.'

"All this means to say that sun spots, earth storms, electrical forces and auroras, have magnetism as their common cause. He never mentions heat as a common cause, and therein he radically differs with Professor Finley, 50 who sustains the Weather Bureau theory that heat is the cause of weather changes.

"Bigelow again says: 'If the sun has a nucleus in which can reside a species of permanent magnetism having poles of direction and intensity, such as are found upon the earth, it must also be surrounded by wide, sweeping lines of magnetic force, distributed in space.'

"He then goes on to show that these magnetic lines enter the earth diagonally through the northern hemisphere, and leave the earth in diagonal lines through the southern hemisphere. This theory was promulgated by Professor Siemens, the great electrician, 51 and now by the most critical tests made with the best electrical instruments, Professor Bigelow has found the theory to be a true one.

"He has found more. The instruments show that periodically the magnetic currents change, now entering the earth through the northern hemisphere, and leaving it through the southern, and then in regular periodic changes, agreeing closely with our weather changes, the currents enter through the southern hemisphere, and leave the earth through the northern hemisphere. Professor Bigelow makes the period of the principal one of these changes 26.68 days. Professor Veeder 52 gives the period as 27.28 days, and my principal storm disturbance period is 27.28 days.

"Professor Veeder's auroral period is so nearly the same as my storm period, that they may safely be considered the same, and from the same cause, but Professor Bigelow's period appears to be a little short.

"Professor Bigelow holds that these periods are caused by the sun's rotation. Professor Veeder claims that the aurora depends on the same cause. Both are eminent scientists, but their periods do not agree. At the end of twelve months they would be eight to ten days apart, and that variation must destroy one or the other, if both rely on the same cause.

"Dr. Veeder is correct in his 27.28 days period, but probably he is in error as to

50 Sgt. John Park Finley of the United States Army Signal Service, which managed the United States Weather Bureau.

51 Ernst Werner von Siemens, founder of the Siemens electronics company in Germany.

sun-spots being the cause.

"I claim that the sun-spot, aurora and the storm are all effects of the same cause, and that neither is the cause of either of the others.

"Meteorology is making rapid progress, the old theories are struggling along on broken crutches, and a revolution is near. There is much yet to be learned, but it will come to us rapidly when the old theories are out of the way." 53

+ + +

"EMPIRICAL FORECASTS.

"The work of reducing my system of meteorology to simple rules, common figures, and easy arithmetical calculations, has been much more tedious than was expected a year ago and for that reason I am very much behind with some of my work. The progress, however, is eminently satisfactory and I am now sure that a greater degree of perfection will be attained for long range forecasts than I thought possible a year ago.

"Formerly all weather forecasts were empirical. Those of the weather bureau are empirical now, as has been stated by its officials, and they have not endeavored to make them otherwise.

"Empirical as here used, means that the weather bureau forecast officials have placed before them a chart showing what the temperature, humidity, cloudiness, wind directions, rain, snow and barometer readings are in every part of the United States at 8 a. m. and being guided by these conditions they estimate, without figures, what the weather changes will be during the next twenty-four hours.

"We might call this guessing at the weather, but it would scarcely be fair to do so. While it is somewhat in the nature of guessing, it is based on a knowledge of very many facts in regard to weather changes.

"It is freely admitted that no great advancement can be made till a new system is formed in which all forecasts will be based upon arithmetical calculations. That is the problem the weather bureau officials are now wrestling with.

"For fifteen years and up to a year ago my forecasts were empirical in the same sense that the weather bureau forecasts are and have been empirical. For my long

range forecasts I had all the knowledge of weather change that they possessed and in making my forecasts that knowledge entered fully into my estimates.

"But I had other facts upon which I relied as the causes of weather changes. I took magnetism as the moving force and therefore made a thorough study of that science. I regarded the sun, moon and eight major planets, including the earth, as electro-magnets and studied the relative magnetic effects of such magnets.

"With all these important facts before me, including charts of the solar system, I estimated what the coming weather changes would be. When relating to their own practices the selfish weather bureau officials call this the empirical system of weather forecasts; but when speaking of my work they say it is weather guessing. By what name it is called matters not, for it has been a success.

"But with this system serious errors sometimes occur, and it is very important to get rid of them.

"After my sons were through the schools and I thereby had assistance, I set to work, October, 1893, to reduce my system to figures and simple arithmetical rules, taking the records of the National weather bureau as a basis. After three years' work the system was far enough advanced to become useful and one year ago it was substituted for the old or empirical system.

"Some disadvantages have accompanied the change, because the new system was not complete. It is not yet complete, but we are rejoicing to see how completely nature is yielding her weather secrets and how wonderfully perfect is the mechanism of the solar system. There is no such thing as chance, everything particularly in reference to weather, is controlled by fixed laws. 54

"When completed this new system will contain, on a scale of ten above and ten below normal temperature and precipitation, the influence of sun, moon, earth and planets for every day in the year, and when these figures are put together the result will be a plain and practical forecast of coming weather changes, the most perfect ever devised by man.

"Friends of my work need have no doubts. I will succeed. Delays may be discouraging to some; the task has been enormous, but the results will well repay for

54 It is interesting to see how extraordinarily similar are the last two sentences of this paragraph, dealing with the weather, to the following statement by W. D. Gann, who also used planetary and mathematical methods of prediction, applying them in his case to the financial markets: "Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relation. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday [quoted earlier herein by Foster] said: 'There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical points of force.'" "Resistance Levels," p. 1.

the waiting." 55

+ + +

"Prof Hicks of St Louis recently made a true and pertinent statement declaring that he had never made a local forecast, never stated where the weather events predicted by him would occur. Then what good are they? All know that various weather conditions will come somewhere. Variations in annual rainfall in North America is so small that if well distributed during the crop season we would always have sufficient rainfall. People do not need to be told that it will rain, they already know that[;] the important information wanted is where it will rain in July and August; then we can know how much to depend on the corn crop. Weather forecasts that do not give localities are useless, therefore the predictions of Prof Hicks are of no value.

"Hicks took up the work of that able long range weather forecast pioneer Prof Tice where the latter had laid it down with his life after devoting twenty-five years to that work. Like Moses he was not permitted to reach but from the mount saw the promised land and pointed out the way. We are all followers of Prof Tice.

"But Hicks claims to be the originator of planetary meteorology, when in fact he not only appropriated but continuously fails to give credit to the discoveries made by Tice. Hicks has never added a single feature to the Tice system and therefore does not locate his forecasts.

"I have learned much that is useful from Tice, Mansill, Blake, Dunne, 56 Cather, etc., but nothing from Hicks." 57

+ + +

"After careful tests a noted physician of Europe concludes that sunspots and the virulence of disease increase and decrease together and both are coincident with the increase and decrease in the earth's magnetic forces.

"Prof Hazen 58 proved that more rain falls at new moon than at any other time at places tested by him. But although this might be useful in long range forecasts Hazen,

55 The Houston [TX] Daily Post, Feb. 14, 1897, p. 16.

56 It is unclear who this may be. Sergeant Elias B. Dunn (known as "Farmer Dunn" after the Weather Bureau was taken over by the Agriculture Department) was a noted forecaster in New York. But he was associated the Weather Bureau, whose "corporate mentality" Foster persistently criticized, and there is no indication in numerous accounts of his work that he used the planets for forecasting.

57 "Forecast of the Weather," by W. T. Foster, The San Antonio [TX] Express, June 17, 1900, p. 20.

although he was one of the principal forecasters of the national weather bureau, received no encouragement from the chief. This is another proof that Moore 59 is opposed to all beyond the twenty four hours in advance forecasts.

"Prof. Clayton 60 of the Blue Hill Massachusetts observatory has clearly proven that the moon regularly affects the temperature and the aurora. Blue Hill is connected with Harvard University. It matters not how prominent the scientist who makes an advance toward long range forecasts he receives no encouragement from the weather bureau officials.

"Prof Veeder, a college president in the Northeastern States, 61 has proven the periodicity of the aurora and that these northern lights and terrestrial magnetism increase and decrease in harmony with the variations of sun spots. Other scientists have shown a relation between the aurora, the moon and the weather. Bigelow has shown a relation between the sun's rotation and the weather. All this knowledge might be put together, systematized and used as a basis for long range weather forecasts. But that might give a better system than the one now being used by the weather bureau officials and as they admit they have made no advance in twenty five years it is fair to suppose that they have become as the Medes and Persians or as the Chinese, opposed to advancement.

"The salary of Chief Moore of the United States weather bureau has been increased to $5000 a year[;] total expense of that institution is not far from $100,000 annually. This will have been money well expended when the weather bureau officials adopt a system of long range forecasts. The immense record accumulations are worthless except for long range forecasts. The chief seems determined that they shall

59

Prof. Willis L. Moore, chief of the United States Weather Bureau.

60

H. Helm Clayton. John Nelson, a later sunspot researcher, has written: "Many investigators of solar activity in the past have conducted extensive studies of planetary phenomena in an effort to account for the maximum and minimum of the eleven-year sunspot cycle and also the shorter period variations in sunspot numbers which take place from month to month. The results of several of these investigators appear to indicate a connection between the interrelationship of the planets and the degree of spottedness of the solar surface. The works of [Ellsworth] Huntington, Clayton, and [Fernando] Sanford, were found to be particularly applicable to the subject matter of this paper." ("Shortwave Radio Propagation Correlation with Planetary Positions," p. 26 http://www.enterprisemission.com/jnelson2.html ). Nelson, under the employ of RCA, studied the relationship of the planets to sunspots in order to predict disturbances to shortwave radio broadcasting (see articles at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,814720,00.html , http://www.solsticepoint.com/astrologersmemorial/nelson.html , and

http://www.weathersage.com/books.htm ). Nelson reported his findings in the books Cosmic Patterns (1974) and The Propagation Wizard's Handbook: Coping with our occult sun and its meddlesome satellites (1978). Another article of his is online, entitled: "Planetary Position Effect on Short-wave Radio Signal Quality" http://www.enterprisemission.com/jnelson1.html .

61

Foster is in error. "After receiving his M. D., "Dr. Major Albert Veeder

practiced medicine in Lyons,

N. Y., the rest of his life." The Geographical Review, March 1917, p. 190 http://books.google.com/books?

remain worthless.

"Prof Bigelow says the general movements of the atmosphere are downward in the vicinity of the poles after coming from the equatorial regions through the upper atmosphere. This is in accord with the the rise of Siemens, the German scientists who claimed that the atmosphere rises near the equator and moves to the vicinity of the poles not coming down in midlatitudes as held by Ferrel 62 and all the weather bureau antecedents. The [illegible words] Siemens, Bigelow and others with whom I agree believe the atmosphere rolls like a hoop between the equator and the poles, while the followers of Ferrel claim there is a coming down and a second [illegible word] in the middle latitudes. The magnetic currents probably rise at the equator and go straight out into space not curving toward the poles while downward magnetic currents at the poles come from space and do not curve toward the equatorial currents. These equatorial currents are electrical and move in straight lines the same as the sunbeam, the latter being a result of electric currents from the sun. The polar currents are magnetic and move in spirals. As the electric and magnetic currents will not unite except at right angles the equatorial electric currents cannot flow with the upper air currents to the poles. This electric current is the active while the magnetic spiral is the passive. The electric current usually has its two ends in separate bodies and these may be solids, liquids or gases[;] magnetic currents most always have one end on an electric current and the other on the ether." 63

+ + +

"PROGRESS OF SCIENCE.

"The human world is beginning to recognize that the solar system, the sun, its attendant planets, their satellites, the more than 400 minor planets, the family of comets that move around the sun at one end of their orbits and around Jupiter at the other end, constitute a great electro-dynamo machine similar to those dynamos that generate electricity for street railways.

"If this be a correct theory, and I believe it is, there are times when these heavenly magnets have greater effect than at other times. In the dynamo the magnets are stationary and at regular distances apart and the other magnets that revolve so as to pass close to the stationary magnets are also regularly stationed so that the electric effects are as regular as they can be made.

"Not so with the heavenly electro-magnetic machine. The great planets become bunched on one side of the sun and the effects of this are unmistakable.

62 William Ferrel of the United States Army Signal Service.

"Beginning with July of this year all the planets but two will be bunched on the summer side of the sun.

"Mercury will come into the herd in August, leaving only Neptune out. Seven planets will be in company in August and September. If we could view them from the sun they would resemble the seven stars except that some of them would appear much larger.

"In August the earth will be in line with Mercury, Venus and Jupiter. In September the sun will come into that line, while Saturn, Mars and Uranus will be close neighbors.

"What effect will these unusual relative positions of the planets and sun have on weather and earthquakes will be discussed in future bulletins.

"I am thoroughly convinced that the relative positions of sun, earth, moon and planets affect the earth's magnetic and electric forces, that electricity is the principal cause of earthquakes in the same sense as we might call thunder and lightning skyquakes.

"I expect this to be a year of earthquakes and severe storms because the planets will be in position to increase the earth's electric forces; also that weather extremes will occur in July and August; that severe storms will occur in September and October in the United States and Canada, and severe earthquakes in countries subject to these disturbances." 64

+ + +

"New readers of my forecasts are sometimes confused by the cool waves, warm waves, and storm waves which, to them, seem to overlap in a mixed confusion. But if the descriptions of these weather waves are read separately and traced on the map it will be seen that each weather event is kept distinct from the others and that the warm and cool waves alternate, following each other regularly. Every warm wave is followed by a cool wave and every cool wave by a warm wave and that is the way the forecasts run. The warm waves average a little less than 6 days apart and the cool waves the same.

"There is a shorter cycle of about 3 days as an average. That is if it is warmer on the 1st it will probably be warmer again on the 4th, etc. But as these 3-day changes are,

as an average, small and unimportant I do not forecast them but forecast only the 3 day averages and the 6 day storm waves which are from 5 to 7 days apart.

"I will soon furnish the newspapers with my weather charts. During August of this year I found the last hidden secret of weather changes. For ten years I have known all causes of weather changes but the law that governs the change from one cause to another and from one earth channel to another has baffled me for fifteen years and therefore I could not prevent the occasional knock-out errors that have occurred in my forecasts. Last August I found that law and the basis of it is the well known fact that a current of electricity develops magnetism at right angles.

"At the end of July 1906 I had sent to 35 meteorological scientists, including 8 weather bureau professors, my charted forecasts for 8 months and had made an average of about 68 per cent good. I was trying to convince these scientists against their will but I saw that I must make at least 75 per cent good before they will concede the value of my discoveries and this I could not do without finding the law above referred to. I determined to make one last effort. Six weeks of intense study and experiments brought the victory and I now have that immensely important law.

"This discovery necessitates some changes in my astronomical records and as soon as these can be made I not only expect to make the 75 per cent good forecasts but I confidently expect to convert all scientists to the cause of planetary meteorology.

"The cause of the great earth quakes, hurricanes and tornadoes this year is found in the equinox of Saturn. Similar events will be found to have occurred at past equinoxes of that planet which occurred 29 1/2 years ago and at equal intervals before. The minor equinox of that planet occurred this year and the major equinox a little less than 15 years ago and before that at intervals of 29 1/2 years. Disturbances of the two equinoxes are similar but do not affect the same localities. Unbelievers in planetary meteorology might do well to investigate the matters." 65

+ + +

A mailing by W. T. Foster 6 6 66 To Sen. Charles William Frederick Dick

A mailing by W. T. Foster 66

Close-up of return address section of the mailing. 6 7 67 ibid.

Close-up of return address section of the mailing. 67

August 1910 Forecast by W. T. Foster. 6 8 68 ibid.

August 1910 Forecast by W. T. Foster. 68

+ + +

"It is believed that the cause of sunspots and their relation to our earth weather have been found and an effort will be made to utilize these discoveries for the benefit of the human race. The cause is not the sun as generally believed by astronomers but is found to come from the changing relative positions of sun and major planets. 69

"Prof. Jerome S Ricard, in charge of the astronomical observatory in connection with Santa Clara college at Santa Clara, near San Francisco, is making a special study of sunspots and their relations to earth phenomena. 70 Prof. Ricard is not trying to prove a theory but is trying to discover facts and therefore his investigations promise to be valuable to the human race.

"Too many of our great astronomers are so fixed in bondage to old theories that they refuse to entertain new ideas. Not so with Prof. Ricard. With him actual facts are all important stepping stones along the path of his scientific researches. Prof. Ricard, Dr Atkins, 71 Luther Burbank, citizens of that wonderful country that has made the great city of San Francisco possible, are men of the hour who are and will be of lasting benefit to our race because of their intense thought in searching out the mainsprings that underlie natural phenomena and natural law. We will hear more about these great scientists and more about Prof Ricard's investigations of sunspots and their relation to our earth." 72

+ + +

"An unusual event will occur Nov. 18. That planetary event will cause unusually severe storms on the sun and those sun storms will be refracted to the earth, taking immediate effect. On and near Nov. 18 weather disturbances will occur on all parts of the earth. Wherever the transient lows are located at that time and between

69

This point Foster reiterated in his 1914 booklet "Sun Spots and Weather": "Note To Reader: I beg you to examine these pages carefully, and particularly to study the Sun Spot Chart. In them is revealed one of the greatest and most important of modern discoveries, proving that sun spots are controlled by the planets, and strong evidences tending to prove that our weather changes are caused by electro-magnetism generated by planetary movements. Very Respectfully. W. T. Foster" http://www.sacredscience.com/store/commerce.cgi?product=GASL . Another researcher who said that sunspots come as the result of planetary positions was Walter Gorn Old, the British astrologer who published under the pen-name Sepharial; he was also the most represented of all writers on W. D. Gann's List of Books for Sale. See Appendix V.

70

As will be seen going forward, Ricard and Foster constituted what is popularly called a "mutual admiration society." See Appendix VI for Ricard's reciprocal praise of Foster's work.

71

Albert J. Atkins, M. D., of San Francisco, California, professor of physiology at the California Medical College and president of the San Francisco County Society of Physicians and Surgeons.

the lows and highs most radical weather may be expected. If you will look at the U. S. weather maps on Nov. 17, 18, 19, you will see the effects of this great disturbance.

"I have asked Father Ricard, the California astronomer, to watch for disturbances on the sun during these three days, Nov. 17, 18, 19, and will report the result. Planetary disturbances do not affect the whole of the earth's surface. They come through the earth's magnetic equator or through one of the four magnetic poles.

"Two of these magnetic poles are located about 20 degrees south of the north geographic pole, one in North America and one in Siberia. The planetary disturbance results in a strong current of electricity which sometimes goes from the earth, sometimes comes to the earth.

"The electric current sets up a closed circuit coming down in the low going up in the high organizing a high and low that live and die together. The bad weather occurs in and about the lows, the clear weather in and about the highs. Watch the weather reports near Nov. 18." 73

+ + +

"Santa Clara College is near San Francisco and among its educational facilities is an astronomical observatory that is leading out into the domain of discovery, especially as to sunspots and their relations to our weather. Prof. S. J. Ricard is in charge of that observatory and has made some wonderful discoveries, all of which he has published. Other observatories that have been endowed with great sums of money are discovering worlds five trillion miles away, while Prof. Ricard has been looking into the nature of sunspots and their effects on our weather.

"Among Prof. Ricard's discoveries are the following: When a solar disturbance — spot alone, facuale alone, spots and faculae combined — approach the western limb of the sun within an average of three days an atmospheric disturbance, the so-called low, reaches the Pacific Coast. This is an invariable fact.

"Second determination is this: When the solar disturbance disappears at the western limb of the sun the low or storm center is crossing over the Rockies and the high, cool wave pushes forward from behind. On an average the low stays three days on the coast. The general direction of high and low movements is eastward.

"The third feature is: Sometimes a solar disturbance coincides with three successive lows on this continent, with small breaks or no breaks at all between the

lows, in this order. When the solar disturbance reaches eastern limb of sun a low reaches Pacific Coast. When the solar disturbance reaches central meridian of sun another low reaches Pacific Coast. When the solar disturbance is within three days of sun's western limb the third low enters the Pacific Coast.

"Fourth: A disturbance on the sun's northern hemisphere causes a weather disturbance south of latitude 37. If the sun disturbance is on its southern hemisphere earth disturbances will appear in our great Northwest. A disturbance near the sun's equator is sure to correspond with a disturbance on our Central California coast. This is all in accord with electro-magnetism, polarity, etc.

"Fifth: Earthquakes occur somewhere along the great rift or fault lines of the earth when a solar disturbance crosses central meridian of the sun and this, too, is in accord with electro-magnetism." 74

+ + +

"For more than 25 years these bulletins have been discussing the physical forces, the causes that induce their variations, their relations to our sun, the planets, the earth, our weather, vegetable and animal life. During that quarter of a century Father Ricard, Dr. A. J. Atkins and Prof. Luther Burbank have come into prominence as expert scientists, each dealing with these same physical forces but in separate departments.

"Father Ricard, being director of the Astronomical and Meteorological observatory at Santa Clara, near San Francisco, is the leading sunspot observer of the world and has discovered the relation between sunspots and the weather of the Pacific coast.

"Dr Atkins has found the relations of these physical forces to animal life and is the leading lecturer at the medical colleges of San Francisco. He has written a book, not yet published, that must cause a sensation in scientific circles, particularly in medical societies. I hope he will have the book published. 75

"Prof Luther Burbank has caught the spirit of these same physical forces in their relations to vegetable life and the world knows of his wonderful achievements.

74 The Dallas [TX] Morning News, Feb. 19, 1911, p. 11.

75 Foster tells us no more about the contents of this book, but Atkins was the author of a book, published about nine years later, entitled Three Phases of Energy: The Basis of Organic Life http://books.google.com/books?id=d-1IAAAAIAAJ . He was also author of the articles "Electrical Physiology" (1903) http://www.archive.org/details/electricalphysio00atkirich and "The Electrical Action of the Organs of the Human Body, Vol. XXIII, No. 1, 1905, p. 72 http://books.google.com/books? id=gBkCAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA72 .

"These four investigators cover the whole domain of nature and their work is a unity. All truths must agree with each other and with the whole. Foster, Ricard, Atkins, and Burbank cannot disagree because electro-magnetism is the basis of their work and their four departments make one harmonious whole, include the laws of nature which are closely related to the solar system and of which our earth is an important part." 76

+ + +

"I am confident that I could, by doing a lot of hard mathematical work on the rainfall records, select four years out of which three great wheat years would be assured for those plains states.

"That method would bring immensely rich returns and save the great losses that come in the drouth years. But I have not the means to support me in such an undertaking. The Carnegie millions are being used up to discover new and far away clusters of stars while no one comes to the support of the great possibilities referred to above." 77

+ + +

"In January I predicted great sun spots would organize near February 18th and requested Professor Ricard, director of the Santa Clara, California, meteorological and astronomical observatory, to keep a sharp outlook for the spots. I also predicted great storms all around the earth at the same time for near February 18th. The forecasts were abundantly verified, both as to sunspots and great storms, and below I copy an extract from Protestor Ricard's reports to the magazines and newspapers:

"'This is one of the greatest triumphs of modern science. For over 900 years sunspots have been observed, but no real observer stopped to think what might be the cause of them. It was reserved to a prince of meteorology, W. T. Foster, of Washington. D. C., to first publish to the world the cause of sunspots and predict their advent as long ahead of time as the publication of the ephemerides — astronomical records — would permit, and see his prophecies gloriously verified.'

"Professor Ricard has traced a relation between sun spots and the weather of the Pacific slope, and I predict for him a brilliant success in that field. He is already making good forecasts of the Pacific slope weather, and I hope he will continue in the good work. This Continent is too big for one meteorologist to do all the work, and I welcome Professor Ricard as a careful, conscientious, scientific investigator. He will be

76 The Cayuga Chief of Weedsport, N.Y., April 8, 1911, p. 1.

immensely valuable to the Pacific slope and will be able to work out the Pacific slope weather more in detail than I have time to do. He and I will work in perfect harmony."

78

+ + +

"The ancient Egyptians, Babylonians, Ninevites, etc. regarded the planets as gods, creators of life and the rulers of the destiny of man. The earth was not counted as one of the gods and therefore it does not begin with a capital letter while all the planets, the ancient gods, begin with capital letters.

"The ancient peoples knew more about the universe than we moderns are inclined to give them credit for. Some of the recent discoveries in astronomy would do credit to those scientists of the distant past but we are too selfish to give them credit for what they knew." 79

+ + +

"We receive many letters from those who believe in astrology — inquiring as to astrological indications. We do not profess to know anything about it. We are dealing

78 The Oswego [NY] Palladium, March 30, 1912, p. 1. W. D. Gann, who put Foster's booklet on sunspots on his List of Books for Sale, and who was, like Foster, a Freemason, also had high esteem for the ancients. " his researches showed that the ancients had knowledge of natural laws of which we can scarcely dream, that in a sense they were wiser than we are today. The fact that the ancients wrote their numbers and letters in geometrical figures opened the way to his discovery of the law that rules all things. He found that every

letter and every number was written in a geometrical angle that determined the power of its

Gann does not care much for money except to meet his daily needs, and these are simple. He made a fortune simply that he might have the leisure necessary for him to follow his ambition -- to study mathematics and delve into the knowledge held by the ancients. He does not want to be regarded as a prophet or a seer, but rather as a man of science. 'An astronomer can predict to the minute when a eclipse is going to occur,' he said, 'but you would not consider him a prophet, would you? Of course not. He simply makes use of mathematics based on known laws of the movements of the planets in their orbits. I have found in my researches that the Chinese understood all those laws and computed the coming of eclipses thousands of years before the Egyptians and Chaldeans. It is marvelous the knowledge that these ancients had. In making my predictions I used geometry and mathematics just as an astronomer does, based on immutable laws which I have discovered. There is nothing supernatural or weird about it. Some weeks ago I read an interesting article on the failure of astrologers in their predictions regarding the war. Now there is a great deal in the vibrations of the planets, but to make accurate predictions the great law behind it all, which the ancients understood, but which they purposely refrained from putting in their books, as they wanted to keep the secret for themselves, must enter into the calculation. That is why astrology fails for nothing can be accurate that is not based on mathematics -- and so few astrologers are mathematicians.[']" The Anaconda [MT] Standard Jan. 19, 1919, p. 1 Editorial section. Gann's desire that his work be seen as scientific and his insistence on the need to make mathematical calculations in addition to using planetary indications are identical with Foster's own views. Foster also shared Gann's view that "The limit of future predictions based on exact mathematical law is only restricted by lack of knowledge of correct data on past history to work from" (The Tunnel Thru the Air, p. 77) and insisted on the need for an adequate quantity of historical data.

Mr.

with the laws of nature which are very simple and easily understood when we approach the study in the right manner. If we fully understand all the laws that control the magnet and electro-magnetism we could readily understand all the workings of the universe and the effects that each particle of matter, each comet, moon, planet and sun has on every other body of matter.

"Life, both animal and vegetable, would be readily understood and the mysteries and miracles that now bewilder the human mind would all be revealed and our race would make ten-mile strides in knowledge, progress, happiness toward the millenium which is certainly possible if we would stick close to those lines of investigation." 80

+ + +

"'Sun Spots and Weather,' is a new pamphlet just issued from this office. It is the fourth paper of the series explaining how to forecast the weather. All investigators along those lines believe there is some relation between sun spots and our weather, including our dangerous storms. In this paper, number four, we give the causes of the variation in sunspot numbers and explain how to forecast the 11 year sun spot cycle, the 11 year crop period, the 11 year cycle of the earth's magnetism. These are all caused by the planets and we fully explain the matter.

"The pamphlet will be mailed free, on receipt of stamp, to any subscriber of the newspaper in which this bulletin is published: Address Foster's Weather Bureau. Washington D. C. Other similar pamphlets will be published occasionally and mailed free to subscribers of newspapers that use our forecasts." 81

+ + +

"Our 'Sun Spots and Weather' pamphlet was delayed a few days, but is now being distributed. It is our most important paper and absolutely proves planetary influences to be a fact. Jupiter is the king of the planetary system in sun spots and weather. By it we prove that most sun spots occur when Jupiter is near 102 of sun longitude, the place where the earth is about first of January. The pamphlet gives experimental forecasts covering 165 years and the rules that will make better than ninety-one per cent good forecasts of the number of sun spots for all time to come, proving this statement by matching the rules with the number of sun spots for the past 165 years. This will give scientists a new basis for astronomical physics and a new basis for calculating the weather years in advance. The old and senseless theories of

80 The Morning Star of Rockford, IL, Feb. 8, 1914.

heat being the cause must give way to electro-magnetism." 82

+ + +

"Next disturbance will reach Pacific coast about September 12, cross Pacific

slope by close of 13, great central valleys 14 to 16, eastern sections 17. Warm wave will cross Pacific slope about September 12, great central valleys 14, eastern sections 16. Cool wave will cross Pacific slope about September 15, great central valleys 17, eastern sections 19. After a long spell of rather quiet weather this disturbance will bring on a conditions that will produce dangerous storms, floods and a great variety of radical weather events. We have the weather records covering all parts of this continent from

60 to 108 years and we do not know of a single instance where similar relative

positions of sun, moon, earth and planets failed to cause great and important weather

events.

"The earth will be near its equinox. But that is not important except when combined with other astronomical events. The moon will be at its new and near its node, neither of which alone, nor the two together, are of any great importance when not combined with important planetary positions. But Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus will be in such positions, relative to each other and the moon, as to cause great stress in the electro-magnetic forces of the solar system and the earth will be situated favorable to receiving a great force or shock. The magnets of a dynamo produce electric force by their motion when they pass certain relative positions and our solar system is one of the most complete and powerful electro- dynamos in the universe, each planet being a magnet.

"We expect frosts that will do some damage in northern crop sections not far

from September 7. A great hot wave will strike this continent not far from September

12 and will be in full force by 14. Some very heavy rains are expected before the cool

wave follows that hot wave." 83

+ + +

"Official long range Weather forecasts based on relative positions of the sun, moon, earth, major planets, rotation of the sun, sun spots, rifts on the sun are coming. Professor Willis L. Moore and the U. S. Weather Bureau are into a public racket about the merits of sun rifts as a basis for forecasting. When Professor Moore was Chief he

82 The Oswego [NY] Palladium, March 21, 1914.

fought all long range forecasters; now he stands for Carothers 84 while Marvin 85 is fighting all long rangers. We find merit in all the proposed systems and we use parts of each, together with some discoveries of our own. We are the only forecasters who use weather records. Our method is to test all proposed systems by the records covering one hundred years and when we compare a system of forecasting with those records that settles the question as to merits.

"We regard as a very great mistake the eternal fight made by the U. S. Weather Bureau against all long range forecasts. Advances in discoveries come principally from outside officialdom and our officials should encourage outside investigations. The people, the masses, will eventually get the benefits of the discoveries." 86

+ + +

"We are pleased to note that DeVoe 87 , Caruthers and Prof. Moore are being recognized by the newspapers in long range forecasting. No fair mind will claim that their forecasts are without merit. We have found merit in the long range weather forecasts of Tice, Hicks, Mansill, Blake, DeVoe, Carothers, Bigelow, Ricard, Porta 88 and others and after carefully testing each of their systems by the weather records covering every day back to 1820, we have adopted all the good we could find in their systems.

"Our forecasts are worked out by the simple rules of common arithmetic, using these weather records, matched with positions of sun, moon and major planets. Each of the other authors use astronomical records only, except that Bigelow used three records, astronomical, weather and magnetic. His fatal mistake was in using only the 27th day cycle of the sun's rotation instead of the planetary cycles." 89

+ + +

84

Warren Fay Carothers. (Corrected above from "Caruthers.") For Carothers and Moore, see Appendix

VII.

85

Charles Frederick Marvin, chief of the United States Weather Bureau from 1913 to 1934.

86

The Fairport [NY] Herald, April 12, 1916.

87

A. J. DeVoe, nicknamed "the weather prophet of Hackensack" (New Jersey).

88

Albert Porta. Initially Ricard took umbrage against Porta's associating himself too closely with Ricard's work, but by the end of Porta's life, Ricard (as will be seen later herein) had accepted Porta as an associate. In "Scientific Pilfering," published in the first volume of The Sunspot, the journal of Ricard's observatory, Ricard wrote (p. 21): "Long before Prof. Porta came to this observatory, our forecasting processes stood on as firm a scientific foundation as they do now. Long before he had any connection with the observatory, we knew, on our own account, the intimate connection existing between sunspots and planets, which we had inferred from the fact that through the sunspots and them alone, we obtained the dates for the arrival of storms on the Pacific Coast, and these were the very same which W. T. Foster of Washington obtained through the planets and them only, quite independently and by a process of his own which we may never know." July 1915, Vol. I, No. 5, p. 14 ff. http://books.google.com/books? id=bIYmAQAAIAAJ&pg=PP118 .

[Magazine editorial introducing an article by Foster, which follows:}

"EDITORIAL

"SIR ISAAC NEWTON'S discovery of the Attraction of Gravitation was the inevitable Evolution of his research in centripetal forces, and the then opaque subject of the motions of the Moon connected with the tides of the ocean.

"In 1687 he published his Philosophia Naturalis Principia Mathematica and for years thereafter scientists generally, and astronomers in particular, combated each other with acrimonious discussions pro and contra the forces of attraction, until Newton's dicta was proved scientifically orthodox in the catholic assent to the Procrustean law of the revolution of the planets in our system; for were this attraction annihilated, not only our Sun, which undoubtedly is traveling in an inconceivably immense orbit around some huge central body, but all our planets and their satellites would fly off at a tangent and travel through all eternity in a straight path, like that wonderful Sun, Groombridge, 1830, 90 rushing a-muck through space at the rate of 200 miles each second.

"Johann Kepler's Law of Gravitation — 'Every particle of matter in the universe attracts every other particle with a force varying directly as the masses, and inversely as the square of their distances'; and the first of what are known as Kepler's Three Laws — 'Every planet moves in an elliptical orbit, in one of the foci of which the Sun is situated,' are the imperishable enactments which control in all investigations of that most ancient, most wonderful and most entrancing branch of the Sciences, Astronomy; and that universal genius, Shakespeare, enlists under the banner of Kepler when he says

'But the strong base and building of my love Is the very center of the Earth Drawing all things to it.'

"Allied with Astronomy are the two co-ordinate branches, Seismology and Atmospheric Phenomena, to whose study have resulted the erection by nearly all our great universities and astronomical observatories of the most elaborate and delicate seismic annunciators, and by our Government at Washington, the establishment of the Weather Bureau, which has been of incalculable benefit to our country.

"Students of Seismology have announced that, eliminating from consideration the contraction of our earth in its cooling process, the great factor for producing

earthquakes, is the powerful and united attraction of the planets when in conjunction or opposition with the earth.

"On December 22, 1892, and before he became President of this Academy of Sciences, Mr. William A. Spalding, in a lecture before The Teachers' Institute at Los Angeles, predicted that in 1906. the equinox of Saturn would be almost exactly superimposed upon that of Jupiter, and the other planets Mars, the Earth, Venus and Mercury dropping into line and their disturbing influences being united, if there were anything in the belief that their united forces of attraction were of a measurable estimate, terrestrial convulsions would occur, or, as he put it, 'Then, if there is anything in this system, look out for something to pop.'

"None of us in California have forgotten how terribly that announcement was verified.

"About the first of September, 1910, Professor Simon Sarasola, President of the Colegio De Belen, at Havana, Cuba, who, during many years, had studied the atmospheric phenomena of the Gulf of Mexico, sent a communication to the Weather Bureau at Washington, announcing that on, or about September 8 of that year, a tornado of unusual violence would sweep the Atlantic Coast from Mexico to South Carolina, and we remember the loss of lives, of vessels and the total destruction of the city of Galveston by the cataclysm on that date.

"Mr. Spalding and Professor Sarasola have favored us with most interesting papers upon these subjects, which have been published in our Bulletins, and others have, from time to time, entered into these fields of investigation, some from an abstract position, others in a more concrete manner, confining their efforts to an individual or single line of study.

"Of the latter class is Mr. W. T. Foster of Washington, D. C, who has been an investigator in Astronomy, Astro-physics and Meterology. For many years he has regularly published a Bulletin upon 'Weatherology,' as he calls it, which is devoted more particularly for the benefit of the agriculturists, with prognostications as to weather conditions and advice as to what should be sown and planted for a successful harvest. His predictions generally have been astonishingly verified, and acceding to our request, he prepared for us the article which we have the pleasure of presenting to the attention of our readers in this

"WEATHEROLOGY "By W. T. Foster, Washington, D. C.

"WASHINGTON, Jefferson, Franklin, Adams and other scientists of their time believed that we may know of future weather by its past and therefore, on their recommendations, many academic and other educational institutions made careful records of temperatures, rainfall and other weather events. About 1840 the Smithsonian Institution gave that idea a great impetus and under its management a large number of new weather records were started in various American localities and the older records, made at numerous places were collected and preserved by binding. In 1871 the U. S. Weather Bureau was organized and it continued and extended the weather records recommended by our early American scientists. As a result we now have a number of good records, including every day for more than one hundred years and a large number covering less time.

"Those records are potentially of immense value and only by their use may we know future weather more than a week in advance. In all weather investigations the hypotheses, or theories, as to the causes of weather changes in America must be compared with and tested by these records. When a system for forecasting weather events is formulated those old and new records must be used and the forecasts mathematically worked out from their numbers. 91

"To solve this most difficult and most important problem has been the larger part of the writer's life work. About half time was given to it from December, 1875, to August, 1890, and since the latter date whole time, with no other business. In March, 1903, the writer came to Washington in order better to secure and use the weather records, old and new, now on deposit in the U. S. Weather Bureau, and the astronomical records of the solar system, open to all investigators at the U. S. Naval Observatory. Besides the work of this investigator he has paid out more than $20,000 for records and experiments.

"The hypothesis used, now advanced by the writer to a theory and the Golden Rule of Planetary Weatherology is stated thus: 'Similar relative positions of Sun, Moon, Earth and major planets cause similar weather.' 92

91

In this very important and all-too-brief paragraph, Foster once again identifies what distinguishes his

work from that of his competitors, whether planetary or "orthodox": namely, the use of historical data and mathematics (whatever he intended by the latter term),. Without the use of these two elements, he says, weather cannot be predicted for more than a week in advance.

92

Cf. W. D. Gann: "Like causes produce like effects." The Tunnel Thru the Air, p. 77. "

I affirm every

class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause. If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes." Ticker Interview http://www.scribd.com/doc/3876189/Ticker-Interview-with-

"Perfect weather forecasts never have been, never will be made. Some, who have pretended to investigate the writer's crop-weather forecasts formulated rules of verification requiring perfect forecasts. Tested by such rules all forecasts must fail. Prof. H. H. Clayton, meteorologist of Blue Hill, Mass., meteorological observatory near Boston, wrote a complete set of rules for testing crop-weather forecasts in 1904, and these rules were included in the Bard Bill, No. 5277, introduced in the Senate March 26, 1904, and referred to the Committee on Agriculture. The bill offered compensation to anyone who would work out, for the Government's use, a practical, useful system of forecasting crop-weather. Officials of the U. S. Weather Bureau opposed the bill and it was thot best not to call it up. Senator Bard was, at that time, representing California in the U. S. Senate.

"Evidently the real test of long range, or crop-weather forecasts is in determining whether the forces are better than guessing. The Clayton rules required the forecaster to say whether the average of consecutive three-day temperatures will be above, about or below normal, and whether they will rise, fall, or be stationary. A rise or fall of not more than two degrees is not considered a change. In 1905 Prof. Clayton tested a forecast for St. Paul, Minn., made by the writer, to cover three months. The Clayton rules were used for that verification, the forecasts proved to be 70 per cent good, 30 per cent bad, and were published. Important improvements have been made since. The forecasts were in possession of Prof. Clayton two months in advance. The Clayton rules for testing rainfall forecasts are similar to the rules for temperatures.

"In December, 1916, the writer predicted an extensive drouth to occur during crop season of 1917 to cover the country south of the Missouri river and between the lower Mississippi river and the crest of the Rockies. In midsummer of 1917 he advised to sow Winter wheat that Fall, or Spring grain early in 1918; that early maturing crops of 1918 would be best; to avoid planting corn and cotton for 1918, in the predicted drouth sections. Early in 1918 he predicted a severe drouth to begin about June 15, 1918, in about same country over which the 1917 drouth extended — the 1918 drouth to continue thru the crop season of 1918. These forecasts were 90 per cent good. Approximately correct forecasts of most of the severe storms of 1917-18 were published one to six months' in advance. These forecasts are published every week in many newspapers and magazines, having a circulation of about 1,500,000 copies.

"The theories upon which Planetary Weatherology is based are that the members of the solar system, thru electro-magnetism, affect each other; that these effects vary as magnets having orbital revolutions and axial rotations; their effects also

vary as to whether the planetary effects are reckoned from heliocentric or geocentric positions. Normal temperatures and precipitation constitute the base lines for weather forecasts. I call these normals the Sun lines. They are caused by the Sun as it progresses north from March 21 to September 22, and South from September 22 to March 21. Beginning with Jan. 1, the daily temperatures for 40 or more years are added and their sums divided by the number of years. The results give the normal temperature line for every day. Precipitation normals are similarly obtained.

"These being the base lines, which I call the Sun lines, the records, covering from

60 to 100 years, are compared with these normals and new records are thus produced,

showing the days of the month on which the temperatures and precipitation were above or below normal, those above normal being written in red ink and those below in black. Temperature and precipitation records are made separately.

"All experiments and forecasts are mathematically worked out from these daily

plus and minus records by comparing the positions of the Moon and planets with the records, taking out of the records at least seven periods of 30 days each, when these solar system bodies occupied similar positions. Relative to the Earth, Venus is in similar position every eight years, Mars about 15 years, Jupiter near 12 years, Saturn

29 1/2 years, Uranus and Neptune a little more than one year each.

"The Moon and Mercury are passive, negative, or neutral. The forces of the planets come to Earth thru the Moon and pass to Sun thru Mercury. Very seldom more than half the planets are in electromagnetic touch with the earth on any one date, and therefore two to four of the positive planets, including Earth, connected with the Moon are sufficient to give good forecasts.

"Each of the planets and the Moon in relation to each other have two strong and two weak positions. The form of force, acting between, is electro-magnetism, the purpose of which is to condense and carry matter to the central body, the Sun being the ultimate reservoir. Force is matter in motion and the force we are dealing with in Weatherology is attenuated matter from outer space moving inward to planets and Sun, building them. They are all growing bodies. These facts can be demonstrated by using the weather records. Precipitation results from these operations.

"The solar system is a very great and complicated piece of machinery and above statements give only an outline of the true system of Weatherology. The subject will furnish many years' work for scientific investigators who are strong enough to cast aside old and mistaken theories of the universe." 93

+ + +

"Following editorial was clipped from the 'Sunspot,' a science magazine published by Prof. Ricard, head of the astronomical observatory of Santa Clara, near San Francisco, Cal. Prof. Ricard is the foremost advocate of forecasting the weather by observing sunspots and interpreting their effects. It would benefit my readers if they would take the 'Sunspot,'' $3 a year, Santa Clara, Cal. Prof. Ricard's editorial says:

"The striving to solve the greatest and in practice the most important problem of the ages and one which is quite solvable, namely, how to forecast the weather long in advance, is now ten times greater than ever before. The bases used are the moon, the planets, the sunspots, the sun's rotation, the solar output of heat, each taken separately and exclusively. Foster's own would seem to be a sort of combination system which is in part related and in part unrelated to most of the above. It certainly takes in the sun, the planets and the moon. As, beyond all doubt, our planetary system is an intricate network of interrelations, one feels inclined to award the palm to Foster. He has been longest in the field and must know what he is talking about.

"There is one thing about long-range forecasting which has ever been a puzzle and it is the determined opposition it has ever met at the hands of our professional forecasters for the day that comes after today. Were it not well for these opponents to settle once for all whether forecasting long in advance is possible or impossible? If possible, opposition becomes irrational: if impossible it is scientific folly to strive after it." 94

+ + +

[Article by Foster's successor(s):] "The death of W. T. Foster and the two months of backward progress made by this bureau during his sickness left me with such added quantities of detail to be taken care of that it will be necessary that I continue to neglect many of the less important features of our forecasts

"I may safely say that Foster's are the only long range crop weather forecasts issued that are the result of actual mathematical calculations based on scientific theory, therefore the only forecast of this type requiring so much work to accomplish results. Practically all other independent forecasters whose work is based upon planetary meteorology use what is called the Empirical System which empirically allots certain effects to certain causes, either reached by experiment or observation. To make Foster's forecast, the entire empirical system would only be our starting point; in order that effects may be localized, beyond a point that would be possible by

empirical formulas, we first decide according to rules established by past research work, the planetary positions that will affect the weather of the period for which forecast is being made, then by applying these decisions to tables of deductions from actual meteorological records, the last 50 years of which are compiled by the U. S. Weather Bureau, we are able to arrive at a forecast for a given locality. The greater the number of these local or station meteorological records we use in making forecast, the greater the percentage of accuracy of the forecast; also the greater the necessary amount of work. Forty-five years of research have held us to the conclusion that fairly accurate temperature and barometer forecasts can be made in this manner, but revealed the discovery which convinced us that precipitation and drouth forecasts could not, with our present precipitation records, which at best cover little over one hundred years." 95

+ + +

[Article by Foster's successor(s):] "In the July issue of Sunspot, a monthly pamphlet issued by Father Ricard, University of Santa Clara, Santa Clara, Cal., appears a thesis of 'Sunset Polarity' that is worthy of highest esteem and should be read and thoroughly digested by all who are really interested in electro-magnetic

theories, universal laws of kindred sciences. In this treatise, Fr. Ricard has described

sunspot action according to my theory

convinced that the only difference between sunspots and earth storms is the source of cause; therefore, a description of sunspot action must as readily be applied to principal

storms on the earth, excepting such points as may have relation to cause. Relative positions of sun and planets, principally Jupiter and Saturn, cause sunspots or sunstorms, but every position that would cause a disturbance in sun's atmosphere would not cause a like disturbance in earth's atmosphere; this exception, however, would be a very small minority. The flow of force between two magnets that are approaching each other is reversed when those magnets are caused to move away from each other: this law, when applied to the relative positions of sun, Jupiter and Saturn, will help to explain the reversal of polarity of sunstorms in recurring consecutive cycles." 96

in a plain but highly scientific language. I am

+ + +

[Article by Foster's successor(s):] "Fr. Ricard, the sun-spot specialist of Santa Clara university, California, in his November issue of The Sunspot, gives a very interesting description of his method for locating storms on the earth from the position and movements of spots on the sun. He has found that without exception when a spot

95 The Fairport Herald, Dec. 10, 1924, p. 3.

moving southward on the sun reaches the central meridian storms reach the Pacific coast: that when a spot moving northward reaches the central meridian a counter- storm reaches the Pacific coast. How can our noted meteorologists deny this evidence of planetary influence? By storm is meant an area of low barometric pressure; counter- storm is an area of high barometric pressure. Fr. Ricard has also found that spots travel around the sun in exactly the same time that storms travel around the earth, 27.28 days; that helio-centric conjunctions and oppositions of two or more planets will cause spots to form on the sun and that those spots will travel around the sun three or four times before they are dissipated: that storms on the earth travel in the same manner and have similar lives to spots on the sun. Surely these points are positive evidence of planetary influence." 97

+ + +

[Article by Foster's successor(s):] "All inter-planetary lines of force move toward the sun, the controlling center of our solar system. The effect that inter-planetary force from outer planets has upon the earth is not the same as that caused by contact with the inner planets. Force moving from outer planets, when contact is made with the earth, passes through the earth, whereas contact with inner planets drains force from the earth toward the sun. Such lines of force are not stopped by little things like the earth, moon or other planets, but pass through such bodies as easily as through the air. Experiments made in this office during the past fifty years prove that such lines of force affect the earth and its weather both where they enter the earth and on the opposite side where they leave earth. A ray that passes through 80 inches of lead plate will be considered a weak force when instruments are invented that will record all forces that move between sun and planets. Our moon, having no great power of its own, acts as a storage battery when making planetary contact, loading up during contact, unloading to the earth when favorable position is reached." 98

97 The Amsterdam [NY] Evening Recorder, Nov. 27, 1929, p. 2.

Appendix I Richard Mansill (from articles about him)

+ + +

[Article about Mansill's work:] "Richard Mansill, of Rock Island, Ill., contributes to the Chicago Journal an extended scientific article on the recent auroral displays and other disturbances, together with some prophecies. The planets appear to be the causes of our literal earthly ills. The transit of Venus in December, 1874, promises to be very annoying. The first time this occurred, in 1631, Vesuvius, previously quiet for a century, began a violent eruption. 1874, says the scientist, will be an irregular year for seasons. In 1879, he prophesies, will begin a series of poor crops in Ireland and other portions of Northern Europe, though they will grow better in 188S and 1884. Mercury he considers a persistent worker of mischief among us, producing earthquakes and other disturbances at the passages of its perihelion and aphelion. Mr. Mansill thinks he has developed a new system of natural science, proven by meteorological facts, and that if it was properly understood the scientist would be able to tell the correctness or incorrectness of any scientific proposition that might be set before him, simply by knowing the amount of motion that matter of a certain density could produce in a certain, length of time." 99

+ + +

[Article about Mansill's work:] "MR. RICHARD MANSILL has a theory. He indulges in this theory to the extent of issuing an annual Almanac of Planetary Meteorology. 100 This almanac is compiled for no particular part, but for the whole globe. He undertakes to establish a planetary law or cause for the principal meteoric disturbances occurring upon the earth. The theory is that when a planet, moving along in its orbit, comes in a line with the sun, the earth or any other planet, and, when the perihelion and aphelion passages occur, agitations, earthquakes, storms, extremes of heat or cold, or what not, will occur in some portion of the globe. At first sight there appears to be a suggestion of unfairness about this. The movements of the planets, their conjunctions with each other and the time of their positions nearest to and most remote from the sun are established. It is quite probable that some agitation or

99 Brooklyn Daily Eagle, Dec. 3, 1872. It may be noted that famine came to Ireland, just as Mansill prediced seven years in advance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Famine_(1879 .

meteoric disturbance occurs upon some portion of the globe at all times. It appears to be no hard matter to hunt up some meteoric data somewhere at specified times, and triumphantly hitch it to some assumed planetary cause as a natural result. Perihelion and aphelion passages are said to be the primary base of nearly all meteorological disturbances. It is claimed that these disturbances are caused by the reversible change of electric currents passing between the sun and planets and the interruption of these currents where conjunctions occur.

"Mercury appears to be the champion mischief-maker in our planetary system. 101 Yesterday the planet Mercury was in conjunction with the moon, and to- morrow it will be in perihelion. At this writing we are having a January thaw. Stormy weather, with rain and snow areas, prevails generally. The Signal Service and the telegraph put this beyond doubt. In the Ohio Valley we have a rapidly swelling river, already above the danger line, filled with merciless ice, bringing, perhaps, unprecedented destruction in its resistless course down the rapid current; heavy, persistent rains and a slowly moving area of low barometer passing eastward, and promising rainy and stormy weather in that direction, to add to our own already booming and riotous river. Whether Mercury is responsible for this, planetary meteorologists should decide, but probably will not." 102

+ + +

[Mansill quoted, summarizing his theory, in a magazine article about him:] "The planets are governed by an UNIVERSAL RECIPROCATING (electric) force, or currents that undulate between all bodies of matter, regulating their densities, volumes, motions, and distances from each other; and they go through a change of volume, density, and motion at about the times of their perihelion and aphelion passages; and through these electric currents the sun, moon, and planets are convulsed and agitated at those times. Earthquakes, tornadoes, electric (ground) currents, &c, are produced at these periods, also at the times of the occurrence of interruptions of these electric currents by planetary conjunctions, particularly the inferior and superior conjunctions of Venus and Mercury, the oppositions of the principal planets, and the longitudinal conjunctions of the planets, the perigees and apogees of the moon, &c. The reciprocation of electric currents existing between the earth, sun, planets, and moon, producing earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, violent hurricanes, tornadoes, auroral displays, &c, was discovered in 1866, and the first notice of the discovery was published in the winter of 1868—9." 103

101 Another article about Mansill, speaking of Mercury, adds this clarification: "It is comparatively well

behaved, he says, except when in aphelion or perihelion, and it is in these unfortunate positions much oftener than any other planet. At these times, owing to the malign influence of this vicious little planet, most of the melancholy tragedies on this earth take place." The Worcester [MA] Daily Spy, May 20, 1882, p. 2.

102 The Cincinnati [OH] Commercial Tribune, Jan. 16, 1877, p. 4.

+ + +

[A Mansill forecast, quoted within a newspaper account:] "For June, he finds 'Venus in conjunction with Saturn, 7th; Venus in perihelion, 26th; Mercury in a longitudinal line with Neptune, 20th; in a like line with Saturn, 26th; it is in ascending node 19th; and in perihelion, 23d.['] Apparently from this, he concludes that the principal 'planetary storms' this month will occur as follows:

"6th and 7th — Saturday and Sunday. "10th to 18th — Wednesday to Saturday. "17th to 20th — Wednesday to Saturday. "23d — Tuesday. "26th to 28th — Friday to Sunday." 104

Appendix II John H. Tice (article about him) 105

"JOHN H. TICE

"AND THE SCIENCE OF WEATHER FORECASTING .

"By C. H. Lillingston.

"LIKE too many farmers of his time — and the notion is not yet altogether extinct — the father of John H. Tice believed that education beyond the mere rudiments was fatal to success in agricultural pursuits, which he ardently desired his son to follow. Very early in life, in fact, in early boyhood, the future meteorologist began to show signs of a precocious intellect, and so strong a desire for knowledge that his father became alarmed and took steps to check his rapidly developing desire for a higher and broader education. The boy's school days were limited to three months in the village school at McConnellsburg, Pennsylvania, and every effort was made to keep his education within the limits of the primary branches. As a further check to his ambition, he was required by paternal authority to retire early and not waste time, tallow and vitality in useless study. His thirst for knowledge, however, refused to be so easily quenched. While the son retired obediently to bed, his habit was to rise after the rest of the family were asleep, climb out of his window to a shed roof and drop to the ground, and make his way thence to the kitchen, where, by the light of pine knots, which he had gathered for the purpose, he would spend the greater part of the night with his books, most of which were such as could be borrowed from the people in the neighborhood.

"His mother, as it happened, did not share her husband's prejudices. Aware of the boy's ambitions, she as far as possible encouraged him in his struggles for intellectual development; but it was through his own determined efforts, aided by a robust constitution, that he was able to lay the foundation for that liberal and comprehensive education which afterward stood him in good stead. As he grew older he met with less opposition from his father, who permitted him to go to Hagerstown, Maryland, twenty miles distant, to procure books. As often as he could secure money enough, by doing odd jobs, he would walk the twenty miles to purchase some greatly desired volume. In 1827, when he was about eighteen years of age, his father began to realize that further opposition was hopeless. Believing that the ministry was the next best thing to an agricultural life, he sent him to study with a Congregational minister,

a man of intelligence and character, to whom the young student became strongly

attached. But the ministry was not to his taste, and after studying one year he entered

a store as clerk at Hagerstown, whence, after several years, he removed to Tuscumbia, Alabama. At the age of twenty-eight he married Miss Marion G. Lewis, a great- granddaughter of Elizabeth Washington (Mrs. Fielding Lewis), sister of the first President of the United States. Mrs. Tice was an estimable woman. Possessed of an unselfish and genial disposition, she commanded the esteem and love of all who knew her. While living in Tuscumbia, Tice accumulated a competence, which, however, he soon lost. Financially, indeed, he was always a decided failure.

"In 1841 he moved to Davenport, Iowa, to commence life anew. Here he taught school in the winter, receiving a mere pittance. Eastern Iowa was then on the border of civilization, and Davenport but a small village. For the next two years his life was a hard struggle against poverty, until he moved with his family to St. Louis, where he resided till his death, which took place in 1883. For a time after moving to St. Louis he was engaged in mercantile pursuits. His outspoken Free Soil sentiments led to his becoming editor of the Daily Missourian, a position which he held until the paper failed in 1847, for want of support. Then for a time he was editor of the St. Louis Democrat. About 1848 he became first secretary of the St. Louis school board, and then served as superintendent of schools for several years, till he was forced, in opposition to the will of the people, to retire, because he steadily refused to be a tool of the schoolbook rings. During his superintendency, he organized, in connection with Senator Thomas H. Benton, the present school system of St. Louis. While superintendent he became known to the leading educators of the country, and his work and methods were copied in Boston and other eastern centers. After being "turned down" by the school board, he was graciously permitted by that body to teach for one year in the public schools, after which he engaged for a year or two, but without success, in mercantile pursuits. In 1860 he was elected county school commissioner, an office which he held for four years, and then served for one term as county poor commissioner.

"Tice was thoroughly versed in French, German and Spanish, all of which languages he spoke fluently, and was familiar with the classics. He was distinguished as a botanist, and was well-versed in entomology, chemistry and astronomy, in all of which branches he was absolutely self-taught. While engaged in his various occupations, he never forgot the great aim of his life, namely, to discover the laws which govern atmospheric changes. In the realm of meteorology Tice was a pioneer, and gave to the world a new system and much fresh scientific knowledge. Scientific men are now adopting his ideas and claiming his discoveries as their own, although a generation ago they had only ridicule for them. His love for the study of meteorology was a part of his nature. 'From my earliest childhood,' he says in one of his books, 'I was forcibly impressed with the grandeur of nature as seen in clouds, storms and

other phenomena. Before reaching the age of four I inquired for the cause of thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc. My parents told me God was the cause. Not being entirely satisfied with this, I wished to know how and why He caused them. Not being able to learn the why and wherefore, when I grew older I determined to make the solving of the weather problem the work of my life.'

"After years of patient investigation he made, about 1865, discoveries which he thought justified him in formulating and publishing his system of 'Meteorognosy,' or the science of long-time weather prediction. In 1875 he published his first book, 'The Elements of Meteorology,' an exposition of his theories as based upon his discoveries. In 1876 was issued his 'Almanac for 1877,' which was continued as an annual for the remainder of his life, giving weather forecasts for each day in the year. He named the system upon which these predictions were based, the 'Electro-Planetary Theory of Meteorology,' which may be briefly described as follows:

"First, there are four points on the orbit of every planet which cannot be passed without causing disturbed conditions on the earth and in its atmosphere. these points being the equinoctial and solstitial points.

"Secondly, the cause of disturbed conditions at these points is due to the fact that when a planet is at one of these, it receives the full force of the sun's magnetic power; when at the other, the influence of the sun's electric force; hence, the secondary cause of disturbed conditions is electricity or magnetism. When two or more planets are at or near a disturbing point at the same time, the severity of the disturbance is greatly increased, the peculiar nature of the disturbance being caused by the positions held by each planet, and the particular planets which are in position.

"Thirdly, atmospheric or telluric phenomena being subject to planetary occurrence, changes in weather conditions must necessarily occur in cycles, or regular periods, varying in length in proportion to the length of each planet's revolution. Planetary occurrences, however, do not, according to this theory, affect the earth or other planets directly. The effect is first felt upon the sun and is thence transmitted to the whole family of worlds, through the never-ceasing flow of electricity. The first effects of disturbed conditions are seen in sun-spots. Sun-spots are disturbed conditions in the sun's atmosphere, transmitted to the earth in the shape of auroras, earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes and the like. The equinoxes and solstices of the planets are the prime cause, and sunspots the more immediate cause, of all disturbances on the earth.

"As early as 1862 storm warnings were sent to English ports by the London Board of Trade, and in November of the same year daily international weather bulletins were published in Paris. In 1870 the United States Signal Service was

established, and weather predictions for twenty-four hours in advance were made and published, and are still continued. Very little progress, however, has been made in thirty years, so far as long-time forecasts are concerned, except that predictions are now made for thirty-six hours. None of these predictions are based upon any fundamental law of nature. They are purely the result of observation, made for the purpose of learning the positions and movements of the high and low barometers, the predictions being made in accordance with these positions and movements.

"What causes the high and low barometers, and what influences govern their movements? Long-time forecasts can only be made when the underlying causes of the high and low barometers are understood. These laws, which were discovered by Tice nearly forty years ago, are fundamental principles of nature, controlling all physical conditions and phenomena. Tice not only discovered the causes for the ever- alternating high and low barometers, but he learned the reason for their peculiar movements and their relationship to each other. It was not known that high barometers attract each other and repel the low, and that the low attract each other and repel the high, until Tice noted the fact in 1873. Soon after making the discovery he called the attention of General Meyers [sic] 106 , then chief of the Weather Bureau, to it. How it was received at the Weather Office is best told in his own words: 'Being in the mountains of Colorado, I observed, on August 2, 1873, 107 a high barometer that came from the Southwest and passed to the Southeast, which direction is at right- angles to the normal course of high barometers. The daily observations of all the states not being accessible to me there, I wrote to the Signal Office for information, stating that I could not account for the abnormal course of that high barometer unless by repulsion from a low barometer in the Southwest. I requested as a favor that they look and see whether a low barometer was on that day over the eastern part of the Gulf, or coast of the South Atlantic states. General Meyers being absent in Europe, a subordinate replied that an examination of the records showed that a low barometer did pass northwest, along the Atlantic, being southeast of Florida and Georgia on the days — the second and third—named. The writer added that it was ridiculous to suppose that a low barometer on the coast of Florida could exert such influence as to drive a high barometer out of its normal course at a point so far distant as the mountains of Colorado; and concluded by lecturing me on the beauties and canons of the undulatory theory. I felt somewhat 'miffed' at the tone of the missive, and hence retorted with a demonstration of the correctness of my theory, drawn from their own observations as mapped in their monthly review. General Meyers, upon his return from Europe acknowledged the receipt of the map and accompanying letter, stating

106 Brig. Gen. Albert James Myer (not Meyers) was the founder and head of the United States Army

Signal Corps (which preceded the Weather Bureau) from 1867 to his death in 1880 and was the first director of the Weather Bureau, formed under his design, from 1870-1880.

that he had carefully and with great interest examined the map and theory and had compared both with the facts. As far as the facts of that month were concerned, he considered that the theory in every respect was completely verified. If facts generally confirmed this theory, I had made the most valuable meteorological discovery of the age.'

"The Signal Office people now use this principle of electric attraction and repulsion in accounting for the deviations and directions of both high and low barometers, but evidently they do not comprehend its value, nor see the extent of its application to meteorological phenomena.

"Tice also discovered the nature and functions of the high and low barometers— the place they occupy in the economy of nature. He found out that the low barometer constitutes one electric pole and is an up-pour of warm, noxious air and gases, relieving the earth of accumulations dangerous to health and life; that the high constitutes the opposite pole and is a down-pour of cool, pure air, sending invigorating, life-giving oxygen many hundred miles in every direction. He learned further that the low barometer alone is merely the direct result of planetary positions; that its work is not only to give moisture to the earth, but also through its mate to restore equilibrium, and that the high is always secondary to the low and is its offspring and companion. Tice also formulated the important theory of the interchangeability of light, heat and electricity; that the earth receives neither light nor heat direct from the sun, but only electricity, which is changed to light and heat in kind and intensity as existing conditions determine.

"All the above discoveries in regard to the high and low barometers, which came as a free gift, through the Signal Office, to the public, are now generally admitted to be strictly scientific, and are used in making weather predictions; in fact, without them predictions could not be made with any degree of accuracy. And yet, so far as the writer can learn, Tice has never received one word of credit for them from any man holding a scientific or political position. Neither has his work been acknowledged by any scientific man of note.

"If Tice, so far in advance of the scientific world, solved, even partially, a problem in natural law of such magnitude and vast possibilities, he deserves to stand in the estimation and memory of the world beside Newton, Humboldt and other noted men of the past, instead of being consigned to obscurity. But do more recent discoveries and advancing knowledge tend to prove the truth of the electro-planetary theory, as taught by him? Want of space precludes more than a passing notice of the more prominent scientific men who have made discoveries in harmony with Tice's system, and, so far as they go, verifying it. During the last ten years a large number of scientific men have discovered a close relationship between sun-spots and disturbed

atmospheric conditions on the earth, intimating that one seems to be the effect of the other. Data having been mislaid, it is impossible at this time for me to give the names of more than four of those who have discovered such connections. I would mention Lyons,weather observer at Honolulu 108 ; Bigelow, of the Weather Bureau at Washington, Prince Krapotkin, and Koeppen. 109 These gentlemen say, in substance, that it is now certain that there is a close connection between sun-spots and the weather on the earth—just what Tice stated forty years ago. Bigelow says that the medium by which the effect of sun-spots is carried to the earth is electricity, another corroboration of Tice's position.

"With regard to cycles or regular recurring periods of disturbance: Prince Krapotkin claims a period of eleven years; Buckner, a period of thirty-five years; Poincare, a period of twenty-seven days; Bussell, a period of nineteen years; Murphy, a period of seven years; Bigelow, one of about twenty-seven days; and Clayton, a period of about five thousand one hundred days. 110 As these periods correspond with Tice's original periods, and also with planetary occurrences, we have additional corroboration of the soundness of Tice's system."

108 Curtis J. Lyons.

109 Prof. Dr. W. Koeppen.

Appendix III Charles H. Lillingston (article by him) 111

"Does the Electro-Planetary Theory Stand the Test of Advancing Knowledge?

"There is a constant and rapidly increasing interest in long-time weather predicting, and consequently an increasing demand for forecasts.

"A very large proportion of the more intelligent of the masses are now asking for further knowledge of the principles upon which the forecasts published in this almanac are based, and demanding information as to what progress is being made towards making predictions for particular localities.

"To-day a very large number of people who, two or three years ago, only laughed at and ridiculed the idea of predicting weather changes for any considerable time, are now expressing surprise at the accuracy of my forecasts, and are seriously asking for information as to how far the theory has been substantiated by later scientific knowledge or discovery.

"A few years ago it would have been hard to convince some of these people that anyone who would venture to offer to the public weather forecasts for a year in advance, was not a lunatic or charlatan; or to convince others that to do so would not be an encroachment upon a most sacred prerogative of Divinity; in fact this was the case; but a majority of the same people to-day, either altogether or partially, admit the possibility at least of so far understanding the operations of nature that even accurate weather predictions can be, and in fact are, being made. There are, however, some who still, through ignorance or educated prejudice, from a narrow spirit of bigotry or from a so-called scientific standpoint, ridicule every effort put forth to read the future as applied to the weather through a knowledge of nature's laws.

"It is for the benefit and instruction of all these classes that the following facts and information are given. For the past four years I have prepared for the year following the weather predictions found in this almanac. These predictions are based upon what is known as the electro-planetary theory. They are in no sense prophetic, nor are they the result of any system of magic, neither have they any connection with astrology, but stand firmly upon a strictly scientific foundation.

"In order to make the following statements more easily understood it will be necessary to briefly outline the theory.

"It is as follows:

"1. All spells of stormy weather, hot and cold spells, and all other changes in atmospheric conditions, occur in cycles or regularly recurring periods.

"2. These cycles or periods of changing atmospheric phenomena are caused by ever-changing electric or magnetic influences.

"3. All changing electric or magnetic influences are caused by the planets passing their equinoxial and solstitial points on their orbits, each planet producing peculiar electric phenomena. This in brief is the electro-planetary theory which I propose to show is being proven a true theory by recent discoveries made by men of acknowledged scientific knowledge and ability.

"These discoveries have not been made for the purpose of strengthening or upholding this theory, nor by those who are particularly interested in it, but are the result of investigations in other directions.

"I had published in the issue of this almanac for 1899 an article designed to show that Prof. Tice should have credit for certain discoveries recently made by Prof. Bigelow of the United States Signal Service at Washington. D. C. Prof. Bigelow, as shown in that article, says 'it is demonstrated that the equinoxes and solstices of the earth affect atmospheric conditions, causing weather changes, and that the changes are governed, or caused, by magnetic laws.'

"This is corroborative scientific testimony to the correctness of the theory so far as electricity being the controlling influence, and the equinoxes and solstices of the earth are concerned. I now propose to go a step further and show that more recent scientific investigation furnishes additional corroborative evidence of the correctness of the entire theory as taught by Prof. Tice, viz.: that all the planets affect atmospheric conditions on the earth, establishing the first part of the theory, viz.: that maximum and minimum weather conditions recur at regular, stated periods, proving that there are other regularly occurring causes besides equinoxes and solstices of the earth, and that these causes are the equinoxes and solstices of all the other planets.

"The following are some of the periods recently discovered by a few of the world's leading scientific investigators:

"Prof. Buckner has announced the discovery of a cycle of about thirty-five years, or that there are peculiar disturbances of a violent nature every thirty-five years.

"Prof. Russell has found a cycle of about nineteen years.

"Prince Krapotkin, a period of about eleven years.

"Prof. Murphy has a period of about seven years.

"Prof. Bigelow's period is about twenty-seven days.

"Prof. Clayton, a period of five and one-half days.

"There are other short periods, and some longer than any I have given, but these are the more important ones that are acknowledged by prominent scientific students of this country and Europe, and pretty generally admitted to be scientific facts.

"Nothing in nature exists without a cause, and these cycles are no exception. What are the causes?

"Do these cycles in any degree tend to establish the electro-planetary theory of changing weather conditions?

"Let us see.

"Prof. Buckner's period of thirty-five years corresponds very nearly with Prof. Tice's period of nearly thirty-six years. I have no data to show upon what planetary occurrences Prof. Tice based this period, neither have I had time to satisfactorily locate the occurrences, but the fact that Prof. Tice found an occurrence which caused all his periods of disturbance and the fact that Prof. Buckner has discovered a period of about the same length is proof that the periods are the results of planetary occurrences.

"Prof. Russell's cycle of about nineteen years corresponds very nearly with the time required for Venus and Jupiter to reach corresponding points on their orbits, or, in other words, if Venus and Jupiter are at corresponding points at a certain time, about every nineteen years they will be at those points again.

"Prince Krapotkin's cycle of about eleven years is too short. This cycle is about eleven and eighty-five hundredths years, or very nearly the length of Jupiter's year, and consequently the time between an equinox and the recurrence of the same equinox.

"Prof. Murphy's cycle of seven years coincides with the time of Saturn's equinoxes and solstices.

"Prof. Bigelow's period of nearly twenty-seven days is nearly equal to the rotation period of the moon.

"Prof. Clayton's period of five and one-half days corresponds very nearly with Prof. Tice's period of five and seventy-five hundredths days, attributed to the influence of Vulcan.

"There is also a cycle of about fifty-nine years, which, however, is not a recent discovery, its existence having been known for more than thirty years, but it supports the theory of planetary influences, because once in fifty-nine years Jupiter completes five revolutions and Saturn two, or to make it plainer, if Saturn and Jupiter are at corresponding points on their orbits at a given time, in fifty-nine years both will again be at the same point, Jupiter having completed five revolutions and Saturn two. About ten years ago the writer discovered a cycle of about fifty-six days which corresponds with the equinoxes and solstices of Venus, and more recently has learned that there is another series of disturbances, but as yet has not been able to satisfactorily determine the length of the period, and consequently cannot locate it in any planetary occurrence. Enough has been given to prove that peculiar and ever changing weather conditions are not governed by caprice, as many suppose, but are controlled by fixed unvarying laws.

"It, however, is not to be supposed that the influences of planetary occurrences directly affect the earth's atmosphere. They first affect the center of influence, the sun, and are transmitted to the earth through the medium of the never ceasing flow of the universal life-giving, life-sustaining, creative and controlling principal in nature — electricity.

"If there had never been a cycle discovered except those caused by the equinoxes and solstices of the earth the electro-planetary system would stand firmly upon the foundation of general principles.

"The laws of nature are universal. Nature has no law that is applicable to one portion of universal space that does not apply equally to every other portion. If it is a law of nature that the equinoxes and solstices of the earth create atmospheric disturbances, then through the operation of the same law the equinoxes and solstices of each of the other planets have precisely the same effect. The only objection that can be raised is, that the effect of the earth's equinoxes and solstices could not affect the other planets and that the occurrences of the other planets could not affect the earth, but when we remember that all disturbances in the earth's atmosphere affect the sun it

is a logical conclusion that all the planets are affected through the sun, and that in the same manner the earth feels the effects of disturbed conditions on all the planets.

"The solar system is a family of worlds united and bound together by the law of universal affinity. The sun is the maternal parent, never ceasing through endless ages to give to each of her offspring an abundant supply of nature's sustaining food, and we have only to come back to humanity to learn that whatever affects the physical condition of the mother affects the child through the sustenance it receives from her.

"It is true that man. who in a sense, is above nature, may so far transgress her laws, as to interfere with their operation and cause physical conditions to exist on the earth, that do not exist on the other planets, but the difference in conditions is the effect of the violations and not the action of the law."

"C. H. LILLINGSTON."

Appendix IV "Herschel's" Lunar Table (provided by Adam Clarke) 112

[Adam Clarke, a late eighteenth-century/early nineteenth-century Bible commentator, presented the "Herschel" table in the following letter to the editor:]

"From the Wesleyan Methodist Magazine. "OBSERVATIONS ON PROGNOSTICATIONS OF THE WEATHER:

"BY THE REV. ADAM CLARKE, LL.D., F.AS. "To the Editor.

"Canonbury-Square, London. June 5th, 1824.

"Dear Sir, — I have formerly sent you some papers on curious facts in agriculture; particularly on the strange power that seeds have of multiplying themselves by means of slips. I believe these facts and experiments were not lost either on the heads or hearts of many of your readers. I wish to change the subject a little, and speak of the WEATHER, and of the best means of prognosticating its variations; a subject of the highest consequence to every agriculturist, and especially to every poor farmer. Suppose I be asked, as one of old,

"Chrema, tantúmne ab re tuô est otii tibi, "Aliena ut cures, ea quæ nihil àd te attinent?

"'ADAM, have you nothing to do in your own affairs, that you meddle with those of others that do not concern you?' — to this I feel disposed to give the same answer that was formerly given to the question quoted above:

"Homo sum: humani nihil à me alienum puto.— TER. Heaut.

"'Sir, I am a MAN: and whatever concerns HUMAN BEINGS, interests me.' And I may add, that I do not remember the time in which I was unconcerned about the changes of the weather.

"From my earliest childhood I was bred up on a little farm, which I was taught to care for, and cultivate, ever since I was able to spring the rattle, use the whip, manage the sickle, or handle the spade; and as I found that much of our success

depended on a proper knowledge and management of the weather, I was led to study it ever since I was eight years of age. I believe Meteorology is a natural science, and one of the first that is studied; and that every child in the country makes, untaught, some progress in it: at least so it was with me. I had actually learned, by silent observation, to form good conjectures concerning the coming weather, and, on this head, to teach wisdom among them that were perfect, especially among such as had not been obliged like me to watch earnestly, that what was so necessary to the family support, should not be spoiled by the weather before it was housed. Many a time, even in tender youth, have I watched the heavens with anxiety, examined the different appearances of the morning and evening sun, the phases of the moon, the scintillation of the stars, the course and colour of the clouds, the flight of the crow and the swallow, the gambols of the colt, the fluttering of the ducks, and the loud screams of the sea-mew, — not forgetting even the hue and croaking of the frog. From the little knowledge I had derived from close observation, I often ventured to direct our agricultural operations in reference to the coming days, and was seldom much mistaken in my reckoning. When I thought I had a pretty good stock of knowledge and experience in this way, I ventured to give counsel to my neighbours. For my kindness, or perhaps officiousness, on this head, I met one day with a mortifying rebuff. I was about ten years of age; it was harvest-time, and 'what sort of a day tomorrow would be,' was the subject of conversation. To a very intelligent gentleman who was present, I stated, in opposition to his own opinion, 'Mr. P., to-morrow will be a foul day,' —To which he answered, 'ADAM, how can you tell?' I answered, without giving the rule on which my prognostication was founded, 'O Sir, I know it will be so.' 'You know! how should you know?' 'Why, Sir,' I pleasantly replied, 'because I am weather-wise.' 'Yes,' said he, 'or other-wise.' The next day, however, proved that my augury was well drawn.

"But you may ask, what has this to do with the subject on which you have set out? — Very much; it shows at least that I pretend to be qualified to judge concerning the matters which I recommend. — I wish to help your more simple readers to a few good general rules, by which they may be able to tell, pretty nearly, the probable changes of the weather, so as to be the better able to conduct their work in the field.

"About twenty years ago a Table, purporting to be the work of the late DR. HERSCHEL, was variously published, professing to form prognostics of the weather, by the times of the change, full, and quarters of the moon. I have carefully consulted this Table for several years, and was amazed at its general accuracy: — for though long, as you have seen, engaged in the study of the weather, I never thought that any rules could be devised liable to so few exceptions. When, on those maxims, I have been able to give to my neighbours and friends, directions relative to their field-operations, even in fickle and dangerous times, I have often been led to glorify God for the discovery of the principle on which this Table is constructed; and frequently said, 'If DR. HERSCHEL had lived for no other purpose than this, posterity would have reason to bless his

memory.' But how was I surprised, when, some time ago, I was informed that his son had come forward and disclaimed the Table as any work of his late father; and as being unworthy of him! Well: great most certainly was DR. HERSCHEL, and honourable to himself, and his adopted country, were the discoveries which he made; and had the above principle and its application been among them, he would, in my sight, have had yet greater honour. However the thing may be, the Table, judiciously observed, may be of great public benefit. I have made a little alteration in the arrangement, given it a significant name, illustrated it with further observations, and have sent it that you may insert it in the Magazine, as it has hitherto been confined generally to a few Almanacks.

"TABULA EUDICHEIM0NICA, "OR THE "FAIR AND FOUL WEATHER PROGNOSTICATOR:

"BEING "A Table for foretelling the Weather through all the Lunations of each Year for ever.

"THIS Table, and the accompanying Remarks, are the result of many years' actual observation; the whole being constructed on a due consideration of the attraction of the Sun and Moon in their several positions respecting the earth; and will, by simple inspection, show the observer what kind of weather will most probably follow the entrance of the Moon into any of her Quarters, and that so near the truth as to be seldom or never found to fail.

the entrance of the Moon into any of her Quarters , and that so near the

"OBSERVATIONS.

"1. The nearer the time of the Moon's Change, First Quarter, Full, and Last Quarter, are to MIDNIGHT, the fairer will the weather be during the seven days following.

"2. The space for this calculation occupies from ten at night till two next morning.

"3. The nearer to MIDDAY, or NOON, these phases of the Moon happen, the more foul or wet the weather may be expected during the next seven days.

"4. The space for this calculation occupies from ten in the forenoon to two in the afternoon. These observations refer principally to Summer, though they affect Spring and Autumn nearly in the same ratio.

"5. The Moon's Change, — First Quarter, — Full, — and Last Quarter, happening during six of the afternoon hours, i. e. from four to ten, may be followed by fair weather: but this is mostly dependent on the WIND, as it is noted in the Table.

"6. Though the weather, from a variety of irregular causes, is more uncertain in the latter part of Autumn, the whole of Winter, and the beginning of Spring; yet, in the main, the above observations will apply to those periods also.

"7. To prognosticate correctly, especially in those cases where the wind is concerned, the Observer should be within sight of a good vane, where the four cardinal points of the heavens are correctly placed. With this precaution he will scarcely ever be deceived in depending on the Table.

"8. It need scarcely be added, that to know the exact time of the Moon's Changes, Quarters, &c, a correct Almanack, such as the Nautical, — WHITE's Ephemeris, — or the one called Temporis Calendarium, [Compiled by Mr. W. ROGERSON, and published by MR. KERSHAW, 14, City-Road,] — must be procured.

113

"With this Table, and a good Barometer, to what a certainty may we arrive in

113 [Footnote in the original text:] "Our readers will recollect that the above 'Table' and 'Observations,'

were designed for England. They are inserted here with the view of showing the principles on which their excellent author conceives that such a table may be constructed with great advantage to the agricultural interest particularly; and with the hope of exciting the attention of scientifick and practical observers of the weather in our own country. AM. EDITORS."

prognostications concerning the weather! By these the prudent man, foreseeing the evil, will hide himself, and will feel the weight of the proverb, Make hay while the sun shines. By not paying attention to the signs and the seasons, many have suffered and charged GOD foolishly, because he did not change the laws of nature to accommodate their indolence and caprice.

"It is said, that the late DR. DARWIN, having made an appointment to take a country jaunt with some friends on the ensuing day, but perceiving that the weather would be unfavourable, sent, as an excuse for not keeping his promise, a poetical epistle containing an enumeration of most of the signs of approaching ill-weather. I have enlarged these by adding several new ones, and remodelling others; and subjoin it as very useful, and a thing easy to be remembered.

'Signs of approaching FOUL WEATHER, 'The hollow winds begin to blow; "The clouds look black, the glass is low; "The soot falls down, the spaniels sleep; "And spiders from their cobwebs peep. "Last night the sun went pale to bed; "The moon in halos hid her head. "The boding shepherd heaves a sigh, "For, see, a rainbow spans the sky. "The walls are damp, the ditches smell, "Clos'd is the pink-ey'd pimpernell. "Hark! how the chairs and tables crack, "Old BETTY'S joints are on the rack; "Her corns with shooting pains torment her, "And to her bed untimely sent her. "Loud quack the ducks, the sea-fowl cry, "The distant hills are looking nigh. "How restless are the snorting swine! "The busy flies disturb the kine. "Low o'er the grass the swallow wings, "The cricket too, how sharps he sings! "Puss on the hearth, with velvet paws, "Sits wiping o'er her whisker'd jaws. "The smoke from chimneys right ascends; "Then spreading, back to earth it bends. "The wind unsteady veers around, "Or settling in the South is found. "Through the clear stream the fishes rise, "And nimbly catch th' incautious flies.

"The glow-worms, num'rous, clear, and bright, "Illum'd the dewy hill last night. "At dusk the squalid toad was seen, "Like quadruped, stalk o'er the green. "The whirling wind the dust obeys, "And in the rapid eddy plays. "The frog has chang'd his yellow vest, "And in a russet coat is drest. "The sky is green, the air is still; "The mellow blackbird's voice is shrill. "The dog, so alter'd is his taste, "Quits mutton-bones, on grass to feast. "Behold the rooks, how odd their flight, "They imitate the gliding kite, "And seem precipitate to fall, "As if they felt the piercing ball. "The tender colts on back do lie, "Nor heed the traveller passing by. "In fiery red the sun doth rise, "Then wades through clouds to mount the skies. "'Twill surely rain, we see't with sorrow, "No working in the fields to-morrow.

"Hoping that this Paper will be of some use to your country readers, I am, dear Sir, yours, truly,

"ADAM CLARKE."

Appendix V Sepharial on Sunspots (excerpted from his books)

+ + +

"It has been suggested that the cause of electrical storms is the sunspot, but it has not been officially noted that the same cause that produces the sunspot may also produce the storm. Sir Norman Lockyer sought to link up the phenomena of sunspots with high and low Nile tides, and later with droughts and floods. Similar investigations and suggestions have been advanced by others in regard to the periodicity of zymotic diseases, whether epidemic or endemic; which facts are brought forward in order to show that nature works by a species of pulsation, answering to a definite beat of time. In all there is an awareness of an underlying law of manifestation which appears to have escaped not detection but definition." 114

+ + +

"This idea of the cyclic law, or law of periodicity, has arrested the attention of scientists, among whom we may cite Mendelieff, 115 who has shown that the atomic weights of the elements follow the natural octave; and Sir William Crookes, whose Genesis of the Elements develops the same idea in regard to the differentiation of protyle via the hydrogen base by a graduation of the vibration-frequency and a proportionate diminishing of the mean free path or play-space of the various atoms. Then, again, the researches of Prof. Ray Lancaster in regard to sunspots has shown that the solar disturbances come sporadically, i.e. in groups, at definite and well-defined periods. It has been shown, too, that these periods correspond to periods of famine, etc.

"Periodicity is, of course, at the base of planetary motions, and therefore also of cosmic changes." 116

+ + +

"The cyclic law and that of periodicity are practically identical. For what we trace as the periodicity of phenomena, can be shown to bear a direct relation to

114 Sepharial, Hebrew Astrology: The Key to the Study of Prophecy, pp. 10-11. The material in this appendix is not specifically organized chronologically, but is organized in a way to make the quotes flow harmoniously. It is the only departure in this book from the practice of chronological organization.

115 The Russian Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleev (various transliterations of the last name exist), the creator of the periodic table of chemical elements.

planetary cycles. Take, for instance, the periodicity of Sun-spots. The years of maximum frequency noted have led to the discovery of a period of 11 years and 40 days. Many years ago I published a statement to the effect that the rents in the luminous envelope or photosphere of the Sun would be found to coincide with the occursions of the planets Mars and Jupiter. Since then I have made further research, and I find that the mean of the two periods of these planets is 11 years and 203 days, which is in excess of the observed period of maximum solar activity by 163 days; but by taking the periods of Mars, Venus and the Earth into account, we have a period of 11 years 40 1/2 days, which is exactly what we want. The Sun-spot period of 11.11 years is, therefore, attributable to the combined action of the planets Venus, the Earth and Mars, the mean of whose cycles yields a period so exactly in conformity with it. Probably the introduction of Jupiter and Saturn to the equation would yield a climacteric every fifth period. It is, however, of extreme interest to note that the years of the maximum Sun-spot appearance, 1871, 1882, 1904, 1916, 1927, are found to be associated with important configurations of the major planets: 1871, Saturn opposition Jupiter; 1882, Saturn conjunct Neptune; 1904, Jupiter opposition Uranus; 1916, Saturn conjunct Neptune; 1927, Jupiter conjunct Uranus. From this we might conclude that the luminous envelope of the Sun is acted upon by the planetary bodies when they are on the same solar meridian. An ingenious student of planetary influence, Prof. Corrigan 117 , has suggested that by regarding the solar disc as a plane, and setting off the orbits of the planets from the centre, the parallels of solar latitude tangent to the orbits of Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, are those along which the greatest Sun-spot activity is shown. Thus he shows that at the latitude of 5° North and South of the Sun's equator, spots are produced by the action of the planet Mercury on the Sun; at latitude 6° those produced by Venus's action are seen; at 7° those due to the action of the Earth and its satellite; at 13° those frequent spots due to Mars; and at 48° those due to Saturn; while the band corresponding to the orbit of Jupiter is attended by the largest and most frequent display of Sunspots. Hence the Professor is quite in agreement with my original statement that Sun-spots are principally caused by Mars and Jupiter. This certainly upholds the original observation that Sun-spots are connected with the occursions of the planets Jupiter and Mars, but it would extend the period to 11 years and 203 days. The whole subject is, however, in its infancy." 118

117 Severinus J. Corrigan. For Corrigan's findings and his relation of same to the weather, see The Constitution and Function of Gases, the Nature of Radiance, and the Law of Radiation, pp. 131-133 http://books.google.com/books?id=cK83AAAAYAAJ and "An Astronomical Theory of the Molecule and an

Electronic Theory of Matter: Solar and Terrestrial Physics Viewed in the Light Thereof" "Part III (Continued) The Nature of the Solar Radiations and Their Relation to Terrestrial Magnetism and Other Meteorological Phenomena" in Popular Astronomy Vol. 16, pp. 367-378

16

+ + +

"The present author has shown that the periodicity of sun-spots coincides to a decimal point with the mean periods of Mars, Earth, Venus and Mercury — the planets that most nearly neighbour the great luminary. This is not a coincidence except in that it coincides with observed facts. Many coincidences make a Law. Astrology is full of such coincidences, and it is only a question as to how many are required to command the consideration of responsible people." 119

Appendix VI Jerome S. Ricard (articles by and about him)

+ + +

[article about Ricard:] "Father Jerome S. Ricard of Santa Clara College, California's tried and true weather prophet, has given out an interview in which he explains the 'why' of his forecasts — how it is possible for him to foretell the weather not merely a day ahead, but a month ahead, and foretell it accurately.

"There is probably no man in California more talked of today than Father Ricard. For this reason his methods of securing data by which he makes his forecast are of interest.

"It must be noted, however, that the predictions are for the State and Coast, instead of for northern San Josquin alone. The storms are always on time, he says, but occasionally in coming over the mountains or coming in off the coast they are shunted off and go east instead of coming into this section.

"Father Ricard says he does not follow any law — that he simply takes the facts as shown to him by an observation of the sun, its spots and its relation to the other planets. Explaining his system, Father Ricard traced a circle on a piece of paper.

"'Here is the sun,' he told the interviewer. 'Here's the equator of it. Here's the north and south extremities — poles — connected by a vertical line that we call the central meridian.

"'The sun revolves. Here's the east and there's the west. Sun spots appear on this eastern limb — or rim — and travel across to the western limb; then they disappear, and if they are strong, appear again later on at the eastern edge. It takes twelve and a half of our days to cross this visible side, and fourteen days to go around the back. The difference is because the earth moves in the opposite direction in the meantime.

"'Now, I have observed for the past fifteen years that whenever one of these sun spots or faculae is in a certain position on the sun a storm enters upon the Pacific Coast. That is all.

"'Each sun spot causes four disturbances here. The first comes three days before

the spot reaches this central meridian. The second is three days before it reaches the western limb of horizon. Then the spot sets — goes out of sight — and we have another storm three days before it is due to reach the central meridian on the other side; and the fourth is three days before it comes into sight again. Only the strong ones do that. But I have observed that their effect often continues for the second time around, even though they aren't visible.'

"Father Ricard says that never in his observations has this Coast ever had a storm without the appearance of such a sun spot or faculae, and that never in his observation has there ever been a sunspot without being accompanied by a storm on this coast — the two always come together he

"Father Ricard says he is inclined to believe — and other scientists agree with him — that sunspots are caused by planets getting into line and exercising some sort of pull upon the gaseous matter of the sun, but this cannot be proven. What he does know is that the sunspots indicate storms, as storms never come without the sunspots.

"Father Ricard explains that his observation has shown that whenever one of these sunspots appears that there is a magnetic disturbance in the Aleutian Island region, which causes a barometric disturbance. This is true either summer or winter, because storms are regulated by the barometer.

"'The barometer,' says Father Ricard, 'is no respecter of seasons, and whenever a sunspot appears the barometer records a low pressure area over the same paths. If it is winter, it means rainstorms; if it is summer, it means wind, but on the barometer it is just the same.'

"Here is how the Father explains generation of a storm:

"'Two planets get into line with the sun. Their pull — whatever it is — causes a sunspot or faculae. These move to certain spots on the sun's surface; the attraction at these angles leaps to the earth's magnetic centers around the Aleutian Low and elsewhere.

"'The air above these places goes skyward in a great spiral as though to get to the sun. Other lower airs rush into the partial vacuum; they bring moisture, if it's winter, and mist if it's summer. Then the storms take the old familiar tracks we know — south to Vancouver, then generally eastward and down the St. Lawrence valley. Their intensity varies with the power of the sunspot. Their running time from Alaska to here isn't the same; and that's why error in dates creep in.

"'That's all we know yet. The law isn't formulated. But I've been observing these

things for thirteen years, and maybe by the time I've put in another thirteen the law will come. When I do formulate it, I'm going to do it right — beyond the shadow of a doubt.'" 120

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[article about Ricard:] "FORETELLS COMING OF SPOTS ON SUN "Important Discovery Announced by the Rev. Father J. S. Ricard, Santa Clara. "Makes Forecasts for Appearance of Spots for Next Six Months.

"Ability to predict in advance the formation of spots on the sun was announced yesterday by the Rev. Father J. S. Ricard, head of the meteorological observatory at Santa Clara university, as the result of six months' work by Dr. Albert Porta. Father Ricard's long-range weather forecasts based on sunspots attracted wide attention in recent years and led to criticisms which induced Father Ricard to reduce his theories to exact mathematical statements. Dr. Porta was employed to do this work.

"Father Ricard announces his ability to predict which planet will be responsible for particular spots on the sun and goes further, making a long-distance forecast of spots which will appear each month between now and January 1, 1915. The first will appear between July 16 and July 25.

"Electro-magnetism, not gravity, is the origin of the spots, according to Father Ricard, who says that 'every sunspot of facula which mars or beautifies the face of the sun is due to a planetary phenomenon, the description of which is reserved for another occasion.'

"Father Ricard's paper on 'Where Sunspots Come From' follows in full:

120 The Lodi [CA] Sentinel, Nov. 6, 1913. Probably Ricard never managed fully to realize the desire

expressed in the last sentence of this article, nonetheless we may still peruse with interest several writings of his writings that are on the Internet. These include the first four volumes of The Sunspot magazine, published by his observatory and containing articles from his pen: Vol. 1 http://books.google.com/books? id=bIYmAQAAIAAJ and Vol.s 2-4 http://books.google.com/books?id=bYYmAQAAIAAJ ; three articles that he wrote for Popular Astronomy magazine: "Meteorology on the Pacific Slope" (Vol. 16, pp. 92-98) http://books.google.com/books?id=XZ8RAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA92 , "Long-range Weather Forecasting and its

Methods" (Vol. 19, pp. 224-228) http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1911PA

http://books.google.com/books?id=tEMiAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA224 , and "Latest Advances in Weather Forecasting at a Long Range by Sunspots and Planetary Positions" (Vol. 21, pp. 131-142)

id=MRFLAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA131 and http://www.archive.org/details/latestadvancesin00ricarich ; and a booklet containing Forecast for Inaugural Day, March 4, 1913, The Sunspot Question, and Latest Advances in Forecasting http://books.google.com/books?id=akUmAQAAIAAJ . Regarding his archives, a recent catalog exists entitled "Guide to the Jerome S. Ricard, S.J., Papers" http://www.oac.cdlib.org/data/13030/45/kt6p302445/files/kt6p302445.pdf .

19

224R and

21

"Crux of Astronomers.

"'The origin of sunspots has always been the crux of astronomers. Once upon a time, the planets, through gravity, were suspected of being the likely originator. The idea was at once exploited, but was soon found wanting. Maunder of Greenwich 121 is on record as an irreconcilable opponent of the same idea and his opinion carries great weight. A writer in Popular Astronomy has of late shown the futility of the same idea.

"Howsoever this may be, an idea which is certainly wrong under one aspect,

may turn out correct under some other aspect. All of us are familiar with instances of this kind, and if such familiarity were wanting to anyone, he has only to ask a

professor of

mere gravity but may be able to produce them through some other force.

the planets need not be able to produce spots on the sun through

"'Hence the emphatic decisions of certain astronomical writers may be, and no doubt are, too sweeping in character to exert much influence on the logical mind. Why did not these same writers test the possibilities of electro-magnetism? Mayhap they would have found treasures with which to enrich the mind of posterity.

"Bridge But No Chasm. 122

"But is there not another and worse source of error? What would a man of ordinary common sense think of a railroad engineer, if he would devote a precious amount of time and labor on the plan of a bridge without first knowing whether there was a river or chasm to cross? And yet this is the very thing some of our would-be infallible astronomers have been doing. They have sought to explain how the planets might produce sunspots before knowing that they do indeed produce them, and not having found a satisfactory explanation of the how they have concluded that 'there is nothing doing in that line' and because astronomers are closely related to the nine Muses they have sung from the housetops that the idea of sunspot formation through planetary dynamics is chimerical and the minor luminaries of astronomy throughout the world have re-echoed the song, and said, besides, a few other things too long to recount.

"No River to Cross.

"And may we not add that the same unscientific 'faux pas' has been taken in

121 Edward Walter Maunder, author, among other texts, of Astronomy of the Bible http://www.archive.org/search.php?query=maunder%20astronomy%20bible .

122 With the following paragraph, the newspaper account dropped the quotation marks around Father Ricard's text.

regard to sunspots affecting, in turn, our weather? For we daily perceive that their long chain of ratiocination is always ending with the trite refrain; ergo, there is no connection. Alas! alas! what has become of the logic of so-called science? There is no bridge in sight, therefore there is no river nor chasm to cross! Bravo!

"The first intimation we ever got of the close relationship between planets and sunspots was when we saw that the date of a storm arrival on the Pacific coast, calculated entirely and solely on sunspots, was the self-same as the one calculated entirely and solely on planets, as is so skilfully and truly done by our friend, W. T. Foster, of Washington, D. C. For five or six years back we had noted this marvelous flow of invariable coincidences between the two systems of weather forecasting at a long distance; but for fear of lifting the pusillanimous off their feet, we dared not breathe the news to any man, except a few friends.

"But 'truth will out.' We were finally convinced that we had only to apply to the point at issue the most powerful solvent known to modern science — mathematics. As our many other duties forbade, we engaged the exclusive services of an eminent professor of mathematics, Dr. A. Porta, of the University of Santa Clara, whose chair of architecture had become vacant for the time being and who was already familiar with the research work of the observatory.

"Much Yet To Be Done.

"While very much remains yet to be done, especially as to the equipment, and also in mere matters of detail, with reference to the great problem before us, we may, for the nonce, humbly submit that the heart of the knotty problem has been laid open; and, with all the assurance that comes from a large number of cases that have stood the most rigorous mathematical analysis with complete success, and the renewed assurance that comes from actual observation being in complete accord with the mathematical prediction, we dare affirm that every sunspot or facula which mars or beautifies the face of the sun is due to a planetary phenomenon, the description of which may be reserved for another occasion.

"The proof we have, as bristling with mathematical formulae, is no more capable of putting a Sunday appearance in a newspaper than the solution of the problem in reciprocal conics we once submitted to a mathematical enthusiast in Southern California as a necessary qualification for a glib talk on sunspots. The said proof is as good as gold and we will sell it to the 'Sunspot Club' for $60,000 to buy a new telescope with. The inestimable blessing it brings along with it is that we can foretell accurately the where and the when of the formation of faculae and spots and thereby foresee the arrival of storms on the coast as long in advance as we please, the only condition being that a Porta or his equal shall be here to make the calculation.

"Last May we picked up at random a restricted number of critical planetary phenomena to occur between July, 1914, and January, 1915, calculated the heliographic positions of the faculae or spots they would give rise to and got them ready for publication. The longitudes are reckoned from the central meridian — the Greenwich of the solar student — of the date, east or west, and the latitudes from the solar equator, north or south. The term 'spot,' for brevity's sake, means both the ordinary dark violet blue marking and the snow-white torch or facula.

"The forecasts are as follows:

"July 16-25 123 — Earthspot at longitude 0 degrees, latitude 4 degrees 31 minutes,

48 seconds, N. Mercury spot at longitude 0 degrees, 38 minutes, 28 seconds E; latitude

1 degree, 47 minutes, 22 seconds S.

"August 18-29 — Venus spot at longitude 60 degrees, 39 minutes, 31 seconds E; latitude 0 degree, 43 minutes, 29 seconds S. Saturn spot at longitude 119 degrees, 15 minutes, 40 seconds E; latitude 0 degree, 1 minute, 3 seconds N.

"September 23-85 — Venus spot at longitude 88 degrees, 51 minutes, 59 seconds W; latitude 3 degrees, 35 minutes, 45 seconds N. Jupiter spot at longitude 38 degrees,

58 minutes, 9 seconds W; latitude 5 degrees, 47 minutes, 46 seconds N.

"October 13-87 — Mercury spot at longitude 81 degrees, 33 minutes, 32 seconds W; latitude 1 degree, 35 minutes, 19 seconds S. Neptune spot at longitude 97 degrees,

58 minutes, 27 seconds E; latitude 5 degrees, 1 minute, 13 seconds S.

"November 27-33 — Mercury spot at longitude 0 degree, 4 minutes, 24 seconds E, latitude 0 degree, 39 minutes, 25 seconds N; Earthspot at longitude 0 degree; latitude 1 degree, 14 minutes, 41 seconds N.

"December 18-75 — Mars spot at longitude 176 degrees, 45 minutes, 52 seconds W; latitude 0 degree, 36 minutes, 37 seconds S. Saturn spot at longitude 3 degrees, 17 minutes, 5 seconds E; latitude 0 degree, 45 minutes, 25 seconds S.

"Caution: The words 'earthspot,' 'Mercury spot,' 'Venus spot,' etc., etc., do not mean spots on the earth, Mercury, Venus, etc., but spots or faculae on the sun produced at the places indicated, by the respective planets, not through gravity, but through some force, preferably electro-magnetism, we intend to prove in a future

123 The second number following the months is often much larger than the number of days in the given month; it is not clear what these numbers represent.

paper." 124

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[From an article about Ricard:] "Taking the central meridian of the sun as a basis, Doctor Ricard says it is a matter of definite proof that the rise and fall of the barometric pressure on the earth is due to the motion of the spots on the solar dial either toward or away from that meridian." 125

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[Article about Ricard:] "Father Ricard of the University of Santa Clara observatory gave out the following this evening:

"Forecasting the weather by sunspots requires a knowledge of solar conditions which have not yet been observed. For this reason the observatory of Santa Clara has for some years already searched into the origin of sunspots. After a large number of calculations on suspected causes and daily observations of the sun, the following conclusions have been arrived at:

"1. Spots on the sun are caused by planets when their lines of force come near each other.

"2. The formation of spots, under planetary influence, is, on the whole, a rather slow process.

"3. Former investigators mistook the road, thinking that the process was practically instantaneous, which it is not.

"4. Groups of spots are due to planetary lines of force falling on neighboring areas of the sun's surface.

"5. Old spots or old seats of disturbance are centers of attraction, altering the latitudes of new spots at the time of their formation. Hence in order to account for the birth of sunspots, it is not necessary to have recourse to swarms of the Leonids impinging on the rings of Saturn, as Professor Turner of Oxford 126 has tried to make us believe. The idea of an intimate relationship between the planets and sunspots arose from the fact that Foster in Washington, who goes by the planet exclusively, was obtaining the same dates for the arrival of storms on the Pacific coast as we of Santa

124 The San Jose [CA] Mercury News, July 12, 1914, pp. 1,2.

125 "Has the Sun-Spot Theory of Storms Been Demonstrated?" July 1916, Vol. LXI, No. 1, p. 37.

126 Herbert Hall Turner, Savilian professor of astronomy, Oxford University.

Clara, who went and still go by sunspots exclusively. Thus it is that bits of truth put together form a whole truth." 127

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[Article about Ricard:] "CATHOLIC PRIEST EXPLAINS STORMS BY SPOTS ON SUN "Remarkable Discoveries Claimed by Father Jerome S. Ricard of California After many Years of Hard Study.

"SANTA CLARA, Cal. (AP) — University of Santa Clara will do honor here May

30 to Father Jerome S. Ricard, its 'padre of the rains,' in commemoration of his 50 years

as a member of the Society of Jesus. Father Ricard, a noted astronomer, has attracted

much attention by his success in forecasting weather conditions, which he ascribes as being entirely due to spots on the sun. Earthquakes, he believes, are due to the same

"Father Ricard was born in southern France June 1, 1850. He joined the Jesuit order in Turin, Italy, when 21 years old, and began to teach at Santa Clara in 1873. He was ordained a priest by the late Cardinal Gibbons in 1886. In appearance, he is short and stocky, with a ruddy complexion and his temperament is friendly and genial.

"Makes Study of Sun Spots.

"Father Ricard became interested in astronomy in 1890 and 10 years later began

to pay particular attention to sun spots and[, through] comparison with the earth's weather, he became convinced that by noting the position of the spots, forecasts could be made more accurately than by use of the elaborate system employed by the government weather bureau. For years he has issued weather predictions from 30 to

40 days in advance with high average success, although his theory cannot be said to

have been accepted universally by others.

"The principle laid down by Father Ricard is that when a spot reaches a point three days from the western limb — or rim — of the sun, a storm appears on the Pacific coast. It is not always accompanied by rain or snow, but a pronounced disturbance is invariable. With the three-day principle as a basis, Father Ricard made deductions which he said gave him 27-day periods to work on with fair accuracy.

"Margin of Three Days.

"'There are, in all,' he said, 'four critical positions; three days before the spot reaches the western rim; three days before the spot reaches the central meridian in back; three days before the spot reaches the eastern rim and three days before the spot reaches the central meridian in front. When a solar disturbance reaches any one of these four positions, a new storm arrives on the Pacific coast, either rising from the ocean directly or descending from Alaska, or ascending from the mouth of the Colorado river in Lower California.' It requires nearly 27 days for spots to travel around the sun.

"As the winds move from west to east, due to the earth's rotation, Father Ricard explains, the weather for the United States usually can be determined in advance by conditions over the Pacific ocean and Europeans may be warned likewise by conditions over the Atlantic. Storms on the Pacific coast cross the continent in from 5 to 7 days. Although sometimes delayed by sectional conditions that make their movements eccentric, they always cross. The passage of the Atlantic ocean to Europe is made in about three days.

"Gives Cause of Spots.

"The cause of the formation of sun spots, Father Ricard says, may be explained simply, and earthquakes likewise. The sun is a gaseous envelop, which burns practically inexhaustibly. When two or more of the planets, say Venus and the earth, are in conjunction with the sun — strung out in a straight line in space — an electromagnetic pull is exerted on the sun that causes a portion of the gaseous mass to reach out toward the planets.

"The same tremendous electromagnetic force is exerted on the earth's surface when planets and sun are in conjunction, and at the place where the shell is least strong an earthquake takes place." 128

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[Article by Ricard:] "FOSTER'S DYNAMICS OF HEAVEN EXPLAINED BY FATHER RICARD "Noted Santa Clara Scientist Declares Famous Astronomer "Has Given World a Synthesis That Will Claim Attention of Science for Centuries.

"By J. S. Ricard.

"It's a far cry from the throne of the Milky Way somewhere in the high north of the heavens and from there all the way down south through the constellation of the Centaur, to the phenomena of earth's atmosphere, but what to the ordinary man would at once appear as a crushing task impossible of achievement is almost a plaything to the geniuses of the race. The writer has in mind W. T. Foster of Washington, D. C., who, by dint of analysis of the doings of nature, has been able to climb the heights of the galaxy and from there by a masterly stroke of genius, has given the world a synthesis that will claim the attention of science for centuries to come.

"His long years of study, not exactly of literature, but direct from nature's scrolls, has enabled him to find a certain elementary form at the bottom of all natural operation, a form which, though safely hid behind the thick veil of external appearances yet controls the universe from nebula to nebula and from the galaxy to the least cloud that dims the day, a form therefore which is the primary law of physical nature. He fondly calls it his little god. Somebody else in a fit of innocent mirth, called it a tin-god. But that is all taken back now. This fundamental law of nature is beautifully illustrated by means of a solenoid, coincident with the axis of which a tube of electrical forms is run, developing a magnetic field helically in the coil in an opposite direction. In a word, natural activity in general from the smallest insect or plant to the biggest star in the heavens substantially reduces to an electric current generating a magnetic field whose direction and sense are known by experimental physics. Of course Foster doesn't mean to exclude the government of matter by the principle of life.

"It may be objected that the magnetic field surrounding electricity in motion is always circular and perpendicular to the line of the electric current and not helical or spiral and never in a direction opposite to that of the current. But the experiments on which this teaching is based are too rough and not convincing and cosmic observation stands for the helical behavior of magnetism in a direction opposite to that of the current. At least, much is Foster's idea based on a more thorough and searching experimentation.

"Out of this elemental form of all inner natural operation in all beings that are at all organized either strictly or only in the broad sense, there follows a consequence of

the utmost import which is that when two magnets are brought within each other's sphere of activity, each develops in the other four magnetic centers or foci. This secondary principle, given as a corollary, is very little known if known at all, at least, we have seen no mention of it in the ordinary textbooks. The reason may be that the apparatus used is generally too small, too irrelevant and indelicate to show such an effect. But when we have to deal with such monstrous magnets as the sun and the planets it fully comes within the purview of an observer, if his attention is at all called to it. Should any doubt be entertained reference can always be had to W T Foster, Washington, D. C. who has made innumerable experiments in the present subject and read professional treatises thereon.

"Thus, two principles one primary, which is the inner form of universal physical operation, the other secondary, which explains a lot of unexplained and hitherto unexplainable things. W T Foster unravels the mystery of the cosmos.

"In order to convince the reader that the above is not empty speculation vanishing into thin air like a wreath of smoke, we have only to glance at some of the grandest phenomena of the universe. There is no need of being a Chaldean shepherd to know of that faintly luminous belt of stars which stretches obliquely across the heavens. It is the Milky Way. The eye discovers in it especially two dark pear-shaped holes which the 'gobs' of a former day undignifiedly termed 'coal sacks.' There is one in the north; another in the south. The former may be considered as the head; the latter as the tail of the Milky Way. Foster holds that an immense bunch of electrical shafts stretches from the head to the tail, the direction of the current being of course, from north to south and coincident with the axis of the Milky Way's spiral stream of stars, and that this greatest of all currents generates helical chains of stupendously strong magnetism in the reverse direction.

"Thus is the Milky Way the typical and complete form of electro-magnetism — it is the grand reversed solenoid of the heavens. We say 'reversed' because the core carries the current from the head to the tail, and the coil the magnetism from the tail to the head. This heavenly magnetic coil carries the starry world spirally round and round and when a member of it has finished its course, it throws it into the northern coal sack, which thus becomes the cemetery of dead worlds. The same helix of magnetism also carries the sun around the axis of the Milky Way in about 25,000 years and by so doing determines its magnetic polarity and likewise that of its planetary family, one by one. George Henry Lepper is here in full accord with Foster by declaring the sun's path is spiral in shape with a diameter of 1,530,000,000,000 miles.

"Hence it turns out that the 'lie' of the earth's magnetic axis and the quality of its magnetic poles are fixed by the galaxy's magnetic spiral and not by the sun. Hence, too, is the sun given an electrosphere (sphere of static electricity) extending all the way

around even beyond the confines of Neptune, but which it revolves all its major and minor planets from west to east; and each planet is given an electrosphere by which it revolves its satellites. So the earth has an electrosphere by which it carries the moon round in about 28 days, the same extending from the earth's center away beyond the lunar orbit. The electrospheres are the wings of all the heavenly bodies by which they are poised and kept on their assigned paths. Through mutual electric currents and consequent spirals of magnetism and electrosphery are all the members of the solar system welded together into a compact whole, a true physical consolidation of apparently independent units. Hence the sublime mistake of the various weather services in looking on the earth as an isolated body.

"But let us look at the earth more specifically and watch the application of the supreme law of world dynamics afore-mentioned. Through the magnetic lines of force whirling about the axis of the galaxy, is the earth constituted, an electromagnet lying athwart its equator, with one pole in the high north (longitude 94 degrees west of Greenwich, latitude 70 degrees north) and the other in the low south. This involves a sheaf of electric forces running from the north magnetic to the south magnetic pole, generating a magnetic helix in the opposite direction. Magnetism is an agency of tremendous power. Even an insignificant current of 110 volts running through an insignificant coil attached to a meteorograph, will, if short-circuited, develop considerable heat and give rise to magnetic lines of such strength that they will tax your ability to overcome. So one will not be surprised if he is told that the helix of the earth's magnetism circulating from the south magnetic to the north magnetic pole, is rotating it from west to east, the effect of the helical magnetic motion being to shift the axis of rotation several degrees away from the magnetic axis.

"But the terrestrial electromagnet though substantially and sufficiently constant to produce the above recited effect with marvelous uniformity and accuracy, is nevertheless subject to accidental variations, owing to the solidarity of the planetary orbs, with the sun at the head. Magnets of such dimensions as here considered are serious things not to be trifled with. In the course of time and rather frequently, the planetary magnets necessarily occupy different positions in respect to one another. These different positions must tell upon the electrical forces and the ever-following magnetic forces and the four magnetic foci[;] one magnet develops in another under certain conditions. Some of these positions must be critical and effective; others rather indifferent and of no consequence. Therefore the magnetism of the earth is accidentally variable, and this by the law of magnetic planetary revolution.

"Foster attributes our changes of weather to our changes of terrestrial magnetism. But these changes of magnetism being due to certain planetary configurations, can be foretold with as much certainty as the configurations themselves. Therefore the weather can be foretold with as much certainty. To call this

astrology is the height of the ridiculous. Parties driven to the wall are wont to resort to ridicule, at their own cost. To call this nonsense is affirmation without proof. An appeal to astronomers in support of such an affirmation, is throwing dust into the eyes of the sophisticated. Astronomers have never spent an hour on that problem. Foster has 50 years.

"The one thing ever dearly wanted in such questions is a scientific induction. The labor entailed is simply a comparison of planetary configuration with a certain controlling element of the weather for a certain number of years, large enough to establish a means of cause and effect, not accidental, but natural, i.e., one due to the operation of natural law.

"More Chips from Same Block. "(Foster's philosophy of the weather and gravitation)

"As an appetizer to this second article the reader should know that for nearly 50 years Foster has been the archduke of long-range weather forecasting in the United States. During his long career in that capacity he has, at the sweat of his brow, fully earned the maledictions of the weather bureau and the chief astronomer of Canada and triumphantly passed through the fiery ordeal. He was anathematized by Cleveland Abbe, 129 excommunicated several times by other notables and burned in effigy by a lot of nincompoops. The Scientific American, lately of Einstein's fame, put the lid on his coffin and set a match to it. Yet Foster is alive and making much noise. Had he been among the Pilgrims he would have met the fate of the witches.

"Foster's scientific induction on behalf of long-range forecasting covers 100 years of weather bureau observations to get which he sneaks into the bureau's cellar of records whence he was kicked out by Chief Willis L. Moore because he would not give up his secrets. Even the San Francisco Call protested against the indignity. Second, it covers as many years as you may be pleased to assign in regard to planetary configurations. The naval observatory at Washington, D. C., has, does and will furnish such data in the rough and, besides, any astronomical mathematician can get them for himself. Foster adopted them to his own purpose. Third he has all the electromagnetic data amassed by Frank Bigelow of the weather bureau research commission, a gentleman who was too big for miniature geniuses.

"By collating all these data he reached the conclusion that the cause of our weather changes is the original elementary form of all natural operations, described in the foregoing article, as applied to and controlling the earth and subject to accidental modifications or variations induced from external sources. These sources are 10

129 "American meteorologist and advocate of time zones" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Abbe .

members of our solar system, the sun, the major planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and the Moon, knit together into a perfect whole by electromagnetic threads of force. All influence coming from these bodies enters the earth by its north magnetic pole as dynamic electricity, and goes out by the south magnetic pole, generating a magnetic helix which runs from south pole to north pole, spins the earth about its axis and determines four magnetic foci, not far from the equator. To the same he ascribes the making of the highs and the lows, which, after all, constitute the substance of our weather, the rest being mere accidents. We wrote to Foster asking that he would be more explicit about the highs and lows. He returned answer that this was an eighth grade question. Even so, we ventured to write again, stating that in our day the meteorologist who has scrambled up to the eighth grade is a rare [illegible word]. For the nonce the question remains in status quo.

"In a few terse lines Foster explains gravitation. Suppose a cork was held in the water by some kind of force. The moment it was released it would jump to the surface, i.e., it would fall out of the water. Hence if a body was held in space by ether pressure, and that pressure was expelled or disturbed by the electrosphere of a neighboring body, it would immediately fall into the electrosphere until stopped by superior resistance. Such is the first cause.

"A second one is that if we consider once more the grand original elemental mechanism of the physical world, i.e., a large cylinder of electrical forces and a proportionately large spiral of magnetism circulating around in a reverse direction, we shall find that the magnetic spiral rolls more than the cylindrical core of electric lines pushes. Hence a body is magnetically drawn to earth against the outward push of terrestrial electrical currents.

"A third cause may be had in the fact that if bodies are held in place by electromagnetic lines of force, as we have already seen in the foregoing article then if these bodies came sufficiently near each other, each would cut off the lines of force of the others and they would fall to and crush each other. For instance, if the moon came too near the earth the latter would more efficaciously counteract or destroy the moon's lines of force than the moon would those of the earth, and so the moon would fall to earth. Thus does Foster make short work of Einstein's space curvatures and geodesies.

"Finally, Foster has no use for the conservation of energy, it is only a dense veil covering dense ignorance. Lack of space forbids our expatiating upon this new topic, which may come up again. Nor has he any use for theologians: they are all a bad lot. One of them dared to call his little god — the grand stupendous machinery of electromagnetism by which the Almighty runs the universe of creation — a tin-god. It was sad and ill-advised. Yours truly will never do it again. The same theologians would not look through Galileo's telescope, according to that history which has made

a joke of history and raised an electromagnetic pile of lies about him. As for ourselves, we don't care to be like the rest. We have looked through Foster's telescope and seen wonders. The world will hear more about it." 130

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[Article about Ricard:] "FATHER RICARD SPEAKS TO SCIENTISTS AT SALT LAKE "Santa Clara University Astronomer Delivers Lecture "on Long Range Forecasting and Long Range Forecasters — Upholds Practice

"The following lecture was given by the Rev. Father Jerome S. Ricard of the University of Santa Clara at the joint meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Meteorologial Society of America. The session was held in Salt Lake City, Utah on June 22, 1922.

"Official science has always pooh-poohed long-range forecasting. It has flouted it, banished it and relegated it to a safe corner somewhere in the craters of the moon. Its devotees have been looked upon as visionaries or simpletons or unmitigated frauds. Sad failure and the ordinary almanac maker may be responsible for this utter contempt, but a share of responsibility must go to superficial scientific observation as will be noted later on. Such forecasting has been cultivated only by a very few scattered unorganized individuals. There have been some in Spain, some in France, some in England, some in South America, some in this country.

"I have it on the authority of the Scientific American that the United States is the happy hunting ground of these precious victims of an incurable delusion. According to a late pronouncement of Otto Klota, the chief astronomer of Canada, fraught with all that is best in scientific infallibility, W. T. Foster of Washington D. C. occupies a prominent place among these rare fliers in the atmosphere of the unknown and the unknowable. Tice also achieved some success but the naval observatory knocked him out on the axis and parallax of Vulcan. Some five or six years ago the Rev. Irl Hicks held the position of chief long ranger in the middle west. He has perched his throne in the city of St. Louis. He was a planetist like most of his predecessors or contemporaries. He never had any use for J. S. Ricard of Santa Clara whom he called a plagiarist and upon whose head he would have emptied the phials of the Divine wrath. Yet the latter had never got an idea from him, had never copied a line of his, did not know him and saw as much of his almanac as of a midnight rainbow. A few other aspirations to the laurels of long range have intermittently peered on the scene but they have all died on the way or are fast doing so.

"We have been told a thousand and one times that the long-sighted forecaster lives upon his happy haphazard hits, his failures being easily condoned or slurred over by an indulgent people. We have been reminded also that storms follow each other so fast that they can all be ferreted by using an arithmetical series such as 2 4 6 8 10 etc. or still better 3 6 9 12 15 etc. The conclusion aimed at is that no force external to the earth has anything to do with our weather unless it be solar energy.

"Objections Weightless

"These objections are weightless. The first one applies to a forecaster who has no scientifically established rule and is only guessing however skilfully. It is not true that the people are over-indulgent; rather they are hypercritical, seeing mistakes where there are none. The least evidence of bungling discredits a forecaster. Even one conspicuous mistake which happens to be an error of judgment and no fault of rule, throws him out. A large measure of success, however, recommends him for after all he is a better guide than no guide at all, although his skill is purely personal, subjective, experiential, a sort of instinct, and to that extent incommunicable. The doctrines of the second objection if followed to the letter will head the forecaster into an inextricable maze of [illegible word]. It only goes to show that astronomers need not be such fine judges in matters meteorological! I would rather have a boy from the weather bureau office. The first objection came from the Scientific American, the second originated in Mt. Hamilton.

"Coming now closer to my subject it can be affirmed in general and without fear of contradiction that forecasting of any kind whether at first sight or second sight, will never be a success until we know the law that governs the weather, or to be more precise until we know the simplicity or complexity of the weather factors and can, moreover, tell the times and places when and where they are operative or non- operative. Prof. Geo. H. Darwin wrote: 'Prediction must inevitably fail, unless we have lighted on the true cause of the phenomena. Success is therefore a guarantee of the truth of the theory.' A weather theory, being supposed to be correct, error may yet creep in through sheer human fallibility, i.e. a fault of due application, as a boy who though knowing arithmetic makes a mistake in his sums. It may be taken for granted that no true scientist will ever deny that our weather is subject to law and that there are no whims or caprices or freaks in it. Chance does not exist. 131

"Earth is Responsible

"The affirmation has gone forth as authoritatively as can be that the earth under

131 Here Father Ricard is in complete agreement with Foster, whose similar statement may be found earlier herein.

ordinary sunlight and its accompaniments is responsible for all weather changes. But this is too general and too obscure and affords no rule for prediction. It is a confusion of ignorance and a cry of despair. With the aid of some necessary additions, W. F. Carothers, a lawyer of Houston, Texas, essayed to apply this idea, which had been fathered or fostered by dignitaries of science to long-ahead prediction. He proved or thought he had proved that the highs which run across the United States recurred each of them at intervals of 25 days so that if one of them had entered today say between San Francisco and Portland 25 days hence it would re-enter with or without a change of locality and pretty much the same intensity.

"This recurrence was explained by saying that large masses of pure cold air fall from the sky on a given territory on our western coast or west of that coast, every 26 days, after having traveled from the equator in the upper regions of the atmosphere for 18 or 19 days. There were seven or eight of these highs occasioned by such falls during the course of a month. In order to account for the fall of those extraordinary masses of cold air from the heights above he had a singular postulate about the sun being rifted at irregular intervals along the equatorial zone and through the rifts pouring forth an extraordinary amount of heat which expanded the air and vaporized the water about the equator. The expanded air would rise and travel pole-ward on each side, drop its moisture in the shape of torrential rains within the tropics and finally fall within the temperate zone and beyond and by so doing make the mercurial column rise. The solar rifts were as many as the highs of the month, namely seven or eight and each of them inflamed the equatorial earth when it stood vis-a-vis. This

theory implied that the sun makes a synodic rotation about its axis in 25 days instead of 27.28 since each rift had to pass before the earth every 25th day in order to make its corresponding high recur every 25th day, a thing that contradicts the data of astronomy and so could gain no admittance. It is not true either that the highs run in an arithmetical progression whose difference is 25. Moreover Carothers asked for a latitude of 24-48 hours for the arrival of certain highs encountering obstructions. Once

more the explanation of the laws was rather hazy

Ex-Chief Willis L. Moore

took Carothers under his tutelage [and the] two together formed a forecasting corporation of which Moore was the fiscal agent and Carothers the brainy man in the cave of the winds. Fate it seems was unkind to them as they have not been heard of these few years.

"Truth Confirmed

"What Carothers deemed a necessary truth about the sun transmitting more or less heat to earth according as a rift was central or eccentric is now beautifully confirmed with certain important modifications through the holometric observations

of Drs Abbot 132 and Fowle 133 of the Smithsonian astro-physicial observatory. The old solar constant has been dethroned and the solar variant has taken its place, a mere passing glance at the writing on the wall forecasting in the near future fully in the teeth of so-called official orthodox science. Already has Dr. Abbot announced before the National Academy of Sciences that the weather can be foretold with certainty one week in advance by means of sunspots.

"Thus it turns out that the thrice damned sunspots are coming to their own in spite of the noisy gossip of the opposition. The solid outstanding fact concerning this opposition is that it comes from non-observers or superficial hasty observers who have no authority to speak on the subject and whose sole reliance is some speculative consideration in the form of an objection.

"At the observatory of Santa Clara weather predictions by sunspots began about 1906. The uphill work was very gradual, at first one week ahead, two, then three. Before 1914 and ever since a month ahead has been the rule, but this rule has no other limit than that of the human power of calculation. At first only the lows were considered, the highs came in later on. One great difficulty remained, that of the relative places of the highs and lows. Here the road was blocked and there was no light to see the way out. Some faint glimmerings were described on the distant horizon and forecasts have been launched accordingly. But the fuller and clearer truth is not in sight yet.

"Concerning sunspots the following facts have been established during the course of nearly 22 years, and some of them beyond the peradventure of a doubt.

"1. Sunspots east or west of the central meridian do not sensibly affect our atmosphere.

"2. Northern spots astride the central meridian synchronize with the arrival of storms on the Pacific coast.

"3. Southern spots astride the central meridian synchronize with the arrival of counter-storms on the Pacific coast.

"N. B. — I. Synchronism does not necessary imply causation. A common cause may intervene.

"II. Nos. 1, 2, 3 rest on a study of nearly 3000 spots and at least 4600 weather maps, both American and Canadian.

132 Charles Greeley Abbot, fifth secretary of the Smithsonian Institution.

133 Frederick E. Fowle.

"4. Sunpots are produced by planets in line with the sun.

"Corollary — in order to establish the relation between sunspots and some weather feature, rainfall say, a new rule obtains. Since the spots are, to say the least, associated with the highs and lows we may not step outside of these in casting averages of rainfall. In other words, wet places may not be averaged with dry places, where the highs and lows either do not exist or have no effect.

"Sunspots.

"Weather prediction by sunspots supposes a knowledge of their dates of transit.

A spot rising today will transit 6.82 days, almost 7 days. This may account for the

Smithsonian in Argentina issuing a weekly forecast by sunspots, with the certainty of physical law. Our weather bureau in Washington is doing the same, too, for this country, but on a different basis, that of visible earthly fact. Weather prediction for a month requires that we know beforehand all the spots that will transit during that month and this in turn requires a prediction of the spots as a sine qua non. Planets in line with the sun make the spots where the planetary lines pierce the photosphere. The geography of these photospheric points is well known by mathematics. Thus are the spots predicted and their times of transit ascertained. Weather prediction for ever increasing periods of time is done in the same way, the only requisite being a foreknowledge of the critical planetary positions covering those periods.

"A word now about our common friend, W. T. Foster, of Washington, D. C. He

has the most comprehensive system of long range forecasting of any man in the world.

It takes in the 8 major planets, the sun and the moon, as held together in one grand

network of electromagnetism subject to certain variations mostly due to varying planetary configurations that one would expect among magnets if their relative positions and distances became altered. These electromagnetic variations induce a change in the electromagnetic system of the earth and thereby a change in our weather. By comparing the data amassed by our weather bureau during the longest periods of its existence in different places, with changes in the solar system as a whole, he has been able to formulate a body of rules the application of which has achieved wonderful success. What these rules are is a deep secret, locked up in his bosom. He considers that the United States government grants no patents on ideas. So these ideas might be stolen and appropriated without due credit to their author.

"It would be unfair to bring this paper to a close, without a short notice about Hugh Clements of England. His Achilles is luni-solar attraction, his system worked out in detail the most perfect thinking I have seen. Under our great principle, he coordinates and explains the grandest of earth's phenomena, such as storms great and

small, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. One and the same force, i.e. luni-solar attraction, does the whole thing, the lunar two-thirds of it, the solar the remaining one third. He reminds us that the moon has three cycles, the nodal of 18.6 years, the apsidal of 8.8 years, the phasal of 19 and 62 years. Nor does he ever omit considering the moon's transit over the meridian, its parallax, its declination, its angular distance from the zenith of any given place and likewise the sun's declination and angular distance. He holds that the weather of any given spot on the earth, repeats itself for every similar or individual situation of the moon, viewed under all the fore-named aspects — the three cycles — the transit, the parallax, the declination, the angular distance, including the sun's declination and angular distance; the moon's phases are in it as much as they show its distance away from the sun. The cycles one of which is the saros serve only as an aid to identify like positions. They are combined in various ways and utilized in prediction.

"Greenwich Mistake.

"Clements was induced to alight on the moon as the chief weather-maker by the fact that it is the chief tide-maker. If it can produce tidal waves in the hydrosphere, which is so dense, why not air waves in the atmosphere, which is so light, and why not seismic waves in the lithosphere, even though considerably dense? Such a momentous question had better be answered before the moon is dumped. The Greenwich observatory made a sad mistake once. They got an idea that if the moon controls the weather the new moon should deliver the same sort of it to any given place. The test was made for all the new moons of fifty years, as regards London. But one half of these new moons came in wet, the other half dry. The conclusion leaped forth lame and limping. 'Now we know the moon has nothing to do with the weather.' The same is now floating in every breeze and any man who has the least pretension to science loudly acclaims it to his neighbors. It was nevertheless lame and limping, for not every new moon has the same longitude and latitude and its distance may vary up to 31,360 miles from a given place, which alters the parallax rather considerably. Hugh Clements may be regarded as a hero of long-range forecasting. His processes and conclusions would seem to deserve the full attention of any man interested in meteorology. (See William Digby, Natural Law in Terrestrial Phenomena, London, William Hutchinson & Co., Trafalgar buildings, Charing Cross 1902.) 134

"Hugh Clements, however, has no use for sun spots, not any more than Foster, Hicks, Tice and Carothers. Yet I believe there are solid elements of truth in the theories of each of them. The question, therefore, is how to reconcile them. On the one hand, the sun spot theory rests on as perfect a scientific induction as can be made. On the

134 Online at http://books.google.com/books?id=kPU4AAAAMAAJ . Clements himself wrote at least

two pamphlets entitled "The Production and Prediction of Magnetic and other Storms" and "How to Predict

the Weather, Winds, and Magnetic Storms and Sunspots."

other, the planetary theories of Foster and Hicks seem to be faultless and unerring and the moon-sun theory of Clements localizes a weather condition about as accurately as

a weather map. Santa Clara holds the planets make the spots and the latter on

transiting make the highs and lows and these in turn make the weather. Foster says the eight major planets, the sun and the moon, as magnets, make the highs and lows. So he comes back to earth in a straight line, I in a broken line; he is direct, I indirect. At bottom we are one. Replace the rifts of Carothers by spots, faculae and equivalents (the invisible spots of Mt. Wilson) and change the synodic rotation of the sun from 25 to 27.28 days, we shall be one. Admit, in addition, that the moon exerts a decided influence in making air-tides and is an infallible guide in localizing weather conditions, [and] it will be an invaluable supplement to the sun-spot and planet theories. Say, too, as they indeed say, that the variable output of solar heat discovered by Dr. Abbot's bolometer, is due to sun spots, faculae and equivalents, and we say all be one. Amen!" 135

+ + +

[Ricard quoted in a report:] "Only sun spots crossing the solar meridian affect the earth, and these affect the

earth only at certain centers of magnetic intensity—not the magnetic poles; one of these is near Juneau, one in the Caribbean. There are invisible, as well as visible, sun spots. These are shown by spectrographs. The High is a sand bar, which the Low, like

a ship, goes around. 'Sonoras' enter the coast down south; if blocked by Highs they go

far to the south, to verify my dates. I want to see the world weather map restored; it will help to verify my dates by storms far north, and storms far south. We must not neglect this—there is too much respectability, too much prestige, and too much honor in the Weather Bureau for it to be neglected." 136

+ + +

135 San Jose [CA] Mercury News, July 15, 1922, pp. 6, 10.

136 "Forecast Values of Lows Entering Directly Off the California Coast in September and October and

The Forecast Value of Good Summer Rains at San Diego" by L. E. Blochman, Bulletin of the American

Meteorological Society, Oct. 1923, p. 138.

[Article about Ricard:] "FORECASTING QUAKES POSSIBLE, DECLARES CALIFORNIA EXPERT "Scientists Able to Give Warning of Earth Tremblers by Close Observation.

"By Associated Press

"Santa Clara, Cal., Feb. 22. — Earthquakes not only will be predicted in the future, but actually have been forecast in the past, said Father Jerome S. Ricard, S. J., director of the University of Santa Clara observatory, in answer to an assertion made in Washington recently by Dr. Thomas A. Jagger, Jr., government scientist, that continued study of seismological data will enable scientists to send out warnings of the approach of tremblors.

"Father Ricard, noted as a weather prophet, is known as 'the Padre of the Rains,' and his theory of the relation of sun spots to the weather has attracted wide attention.

"'Earthquakes,' he contended, 'were first predicted by Marchand, 137 a Frenchman, 25 years ago, by means of sun spots. Unfortunately he died without perfecting his system, and as usual his idea was greatly ridiculed.

"'We took up the same idea here at Santa Clara and tested it until 1914. Our findings were that a sun spot crossing the central meridian, or happening in the vicinity, east or west, always synchronized with accounts of earthquakes somewhere on the globe given out by the press. Professor Albert Porta, of this observatory, became imbued with the findings and continued the study until his death last year.'

"Professor Porta's death determined "Father Ricard to resume the study predicting earthquakes.

"Of the attitude of the public and even of the scientific world toward the theory advanced by Marchand, the Jesuit astronomer said: 'It is hard for the layman, professed physicist though he be, to see a casual nexus, or connection, between sun spots and earthquakes, or sun spots and weather. But this proves only the limitation of the human mind and its great ignorance, even among scientists.'

"According to Father Ricard, Marchand was not the only astronomer to see the relation between earthquakes and sun spots. Some time before 1900 Hugh Clements in London held firmly that earthquakes were caused by the joint action of the sun and the moon. On this idea Clements explained the great earthquakes, particularly the disastrous Lisbon tremblor.

137 Émile Marchand, head of "l'Observatoire du Pic du Midi de Bigorre," spectacularly located in the Pyrenees in the southwest of France.

"Father Ricard also announced that he had begun the study of the possible relation of the moon to the direction of storms. If it is found, he explained, that the moon has influence on atmospheric tides capable of inducing barometric rises and falls along certain lines of the earth, the new study should aid in long-range forecasting." 138

Appendix VII Warren Fay Carothers (articles about him)

+ + +

"THE LAW OF THE WEATHER?"

"Prof. CAROTHERS, the meteorologist of Houston, Texas, believes he has discovered the law by which the tornadoes that visited this and other localities on Easter Sunday cavort. The sun, like the earth, revolves upon its axis. Scattered about the rotating solar disk are relatively hot areas which produce upheavals of heated air at the earth's equator. These, rising to the higher strata, become chilled, precipitate their moisture in the tropics, thence pass high overhead to northern latitudes, where they come down in cold waves called 'highs.' The sun's axial rotation of twenty-five days makes the serial period of weather fluctuations on this planet.

"Prof. CAROTHERS says he has checked up ninety-two successive 'highs' on his weather map, and eighty of them arrived on the day called for by this newly observed law of serial periodicity. All the rest came within forty-eight hours. The professor is establishing a forecasting service for long-range predictions in the southwest, outdoing the Government service by almost twenty-five days. We have always known, of course, that the sun is the prime agent of the weather. The meteorologists have been telling us from some time that the dry spells in Kansas are due to periodical sun-spot activities coming in eleven and fifteen year cycles. The twenty-five-day law is interesting, if true. We shall watch the working out of Prof. CAROTHER's hypothesis in Texas, but we note doubtfully what he says about variations from it, consisting of 'deviations in path and intensity of the movement, which at present are very difficult to anticipate.'" 139

+ + +

139 "The Law of the Weather?," The New York Times, April 9, 1912.

"TO TELL WEATHER 25 DAYS AHEAD "Prof. Carothers Will Attempt Forecasts Long In Advance. "WORKING ON NEW THEORIES.

"Houston (Tex.) Observatory Man Believes Hot Areas on the 8un Cause Periodical Changes in Our Atmospheric Conditions.

"Working on the theory that certain highly heated-areas on the sun are the causes of marked changes in the atmospheric conditions of the earth and that the influence of these areas can be determined ahead of time, Professor W. F. Carothers of the Carothers observatory, in Houston, Tex., plans to make weather forecasts twenty- five days ahead for the southwest. Professor Carothers has long been studying this problem and has written articles on the subject that have attracted wide attention among scientific men, and he believes that under actual service over a long period he will be able to demonstrate that his theories are correct.

"Professor Carothers took up the work of meteorology many years ago and through it was led into a study of the sun. When he began this work meteorologists had a theory that the sun was responsible for great weather changes, but did not know just how it acted, whether by heat, magnetism or attraction. The work at Houston was begun with an inquiry into the weather movements which constantly sweep across northern latitudes, consisting of a sort of cyclonic forerunner marked by strong winds, rain or snow and a low barometer and followed by a cold and clearing spell marked by a high barometer. These movements were known to originate near the poles and to move almost around the earth.

"First Conclusions.

"The first conclusions reached by Professor Carothers in common with other investigators, including the present chief of the federal weather bureau, were that the periods of high barometer dominated those of the cyclonic or low barometer and that the cold temperature that marked high barometlc periods came from higher altitudes.

"Next the observer turned to the sun as a means of solving the problem. He devised a tabulating disk that is now well known to students of the sun and recorded the observable changes on the sun in its revolution. For two years he has been comparing his observations of the sun with the change of the weather and has decided that changes there and in conditions here closely correspond. He declares he has established a law of 'serial periodicity' in the high barometric conditions, which come with variations each twenty-five days, corresponding with the revolution of the sun.

"In a discussion of the matter Professor Carothers thus explains the further

theory on which he is working:

"'Now we come to the part of my work which is as yet an unconfirmed hypothesis,' he says — "that is, that this serial periodicity is caused by relatively hot areas scattered around the revolving disk of the sun, which in passing so as to face the earth directly produce extra upheavals of heated air at our equator. These are forced by the heat into high upper strata, where a chilling takes place; the moisture is precipitated (it rains daily at the heat equator), and thence they pass high above our heads to the northern latitudes, where they come down as cold waves, or 'highs.' Every time the sun turns around on its axis these upheavals recur, and hence the coming of the movements in serial periods of twenty-five days.

"Theory Explained.

"'That such relatively hot areas existed on the sun could not be proved readily, but announcement has been made by two of the leading solar observatories that just such effects have been tentatively discovered, and congress has appropriated $5,000 for a special expedition to new fields to make further tests. I know they are on the right track. The location and measurement of the intensity of these areas are necessary to perfect the matter of long range forecasting, though useful results are even now possible.

"'My hypothesis explains the origin of the advance cyclonic movements on the theory that the downpours spoken of cause uplifts on the sides with an upward suction which we know as cyclones. These uplifts carry the surface air to upper heights, where it is chilled, producing rain or snow. Thus it is that the cold waves produce all of the pronounced weather changes, and the law of their coming may be properly termed the 'central law of the weather.'

"'The variations consist of deviations in path and intensity of the movement, which at present are very difficult to anticipate. Therefore, in making forecasts based on the laws, I have found a latitude of twenty-four to forty-eight hours for predicted local changes to take effect as necessary, though it is not always needed by any means. I recall checking up ninety-two successive 'highs' on the weather maps, of which eighty came on the day called for by the law and the majority of the others within twenty-four hours, and none was more than forty-eight hours off.'" 140

140 The Auburn Citizen, April 17, 1912, p. 12 (and other newspapers printing the same article).

+ + +

"VERY REMARKABLE AND USEFUL DISCOVERY

"Professor Willis L. Moore's announcement that W. F. Carothers has discovered the law of weather is extraordinarily interesting.

"Mr. Carothers, it seems, is a private student of meteorology, with an observatory of his own in Houston, Texas. He has demonstrated to Professor Moore's satisfaction that the cause of weather variations is pulsations in solar intensity, and that these pulsations can be accurately measured and the weather accurately forecast for many days in advance.

"Professor Moore is a high authority not apt to be deceived. We shall assume that Mr. Carothers has discovered the law of weather. And we are sure that no greater service has been rendered to civilization in a century.

"It would be hard to overguess the enormous amount of loss to crops, shipping and land transportation which will be saved annually if our observers do prove able to say with accuracy what the weather will be for two or three weeks ahead.

"An element of safety would then be introduced into commerce and production which would be cheap at the price of many hundreds of millions.

"Such a man as this Mr. Carothers is of more value to mankind than all the Kings, Kaisers, Prime Ministers and Generals who are butchering Europe put in one basket together." — N. Y. American 141

+ + +

"New Discovery in Solar Physics Makes It Possible "to Predict The Weather Weeks in Advance

"BY WILLIS LUTHER MOORE, D. Sc., "Professor Meteorology, George Washington University, Formerly Chief Weather Bureau.

"For eighteen years as chief of the United States Weather Bureau I sought, with all of the facilities of a great government institution, to solve the problem of the law that I knew must be back of the initiation of storms. I constructed the weather research

observatories at Mount Weather, Virginia; flew kites carrying self-recording thermometers and barometers daily to altitudes of two to over four miles high; sailed free balloons with instruments frequently to nineteen miles altitude and received the instruments back again under parachutes, after the balloons had exploded; measured the height and velocity of clouds by means of theodolite observations; daily plotted observations collected from around the entire Northern Hemisphere, so that I might locate all the storms of land or ocean on any given date and trace the sequence of storms and cold waves from their beginning to their ending; and collected and discussed the available data which might be expected to show the relation that subsists, if any, between solar activities or planetary positions and the weather of the earth — but all without definite success until I became associated with W. F. Carothers of Houston, Tex., who has undoubtedly discovered the central law of the weather, which makes it possible to make forecasts two and three weeks in advance with higher accuracy than can be made from an ordinary meteorological chart for two days in advance. When this new system is adopted by the government or other institutions for the making of predictions there will result a saving of hundreds of millions to the farmer and to the man who works out-of-doors. While the forecasts will not be perfect, they will have but a small percentage of error and will enable one to know weeks in advance the general character of the weather and to get detailed forecasts that will have a higher degree of accuracy than he has had heretofore.

"Cyclones and Anti-Cyclones Traced Back to Sun's Activities.

"By this system each and every one of the cyclones and anti-cyclones that constitute our weather may be traced back to certain activities of the sun that it is possible now definitely to measure. The splendid work of C. G. Abbot, of the Smithsonian Institution, has shown the variable character of the sun's heat and that certain spots radiate more than other parts of the surface of the sun. There are hot, luminous, metallic clouds surrounding the sun, called the photosphere. Here and there the pent up heat of the interior bursts through these clouds and creates a rift or opening which emits heat in excess of the hot adjacent photosphere. These rifts, by sending out shafts of extra heat disturb the otherwise orderly processes of the seasons and create turbulent gyrations in our atmosphere that we call storms and cold waves. Carothers has discovered a most wonderful and ingenious way of locating these rifts through the action that they exercise on the morning rise of the barometer, which always is present in more or less degree between 4 and 10 a.m. each day at the equator and for some degrees north and south. He has also determined them by direct observations of the sun. Most investigators have been confused and lost in an interminable jungle by trying to correlate weather of the earth with a twenty-seven day rotation period which the photosphere seems to have and to trace the relation of spots, prominences and faculae and variations in magnetic conditions to storms of the earth. Carothers found that the sun, at least at the equator and beneath the

photosphere, rotates in twenty-five days and not twenty-seven; and that there are never less than five nor more than eight of the heat rifts previously referred to, and that they may retain their position and existence for many months, or more than a year, at time, with varying degrees of intensity, and each cross our central meridian every twenty-five days. They may pass away and others form. But, as previously stated, each one of our storms and cold waves can now be traced back to one of these heat pulsations of the sun, and it is found that their intensities are directly proportional to the strength of the solar rifts. Mr. Carothers has discovered the length of the interval between the passage of a rift and the appearance of a cold wave in the western part of the United States. It is nearly three weeks in length.

"A Working Hypothesis to Satisfy Requirements of Science.

"A working hypothesis that satisfies the requirements of science with regard to these discoveries may be stated as follows:

"That the passage of the earth through a shaft of extra heat expands the lower air at the equator, much more than it does at high latitudes, causing the air in the tropics to bulge upward until huge masses, somewhat like avalanches of snow on a mountain side, break loose and slide down the incline toward the poles. These masses crowd each other because of the converging of the meridians of longitude, have their northward movement checked and settle down to the earth in the form of cool or cold waves in the middle latitudes or near the Arctic Circle. They move along certain fairly well defined routes in accordance with the general hemispherical circulation of tho atmosphere, settling over continents in winter and over oceans in summer, because the plane on which they slide is steeper over land in winter and over oceans in summer. As they come down they rotate in an anti-cyclonic manner and cause ascending cyclonic storms to form on both their eastern and western sides, and thus indirectly produce rain and snow fall by the warm, moist air that they force upward. They, themselves, are dry, because they have been chilled and had their moisture squeezed out by the cold of elevation before they started on their northward circuit from the equator. We know to the fraction of a day the time required for these air masses from the equator to complete their overhead journey and come to the earth on our western border.

"Having located a heat rift on the sun, or several of them, we may look with certainty for its return at the end of twenty-five days and for the cool weather conditions that in each case will follow in due time. With experience and improved methods of observation the forecasts made by this system will certainly yield a far higher accuracy than any previously known and for a much longer period, and must therefore result in great benefit to mankind and a wonderful conservation of human energy. Much preliminary work had been done by myself and others, but Carothers,

with his ingenuity, furnished the key to unlock the door.

"Mr. Moore Convinced That Carothers' Discovery Will Stand Test of Scientific Inquiry.

"There have been so many charlatans making long-range forecasts, and persons making similar predictions whose work showed that they were ignorant of the most elementary knowledge of science that I have not given my indorsement to this project until I became convinced that it would stand the test of scientific inquiry.

"The meteorologists of the world are practically agreed that systems of long- range weather forecasting that depend upon planetary meteorology have no proper basis; neither have those that are predicated upon the phases, cycles or movements of the moon, upon stellar influences or star divinations; upon the actions of animals or plants; nor upon days, months, seasons and years. The moon and perhaps the planets exact some influence upon atmospheric tides, but these effects are too slight to have any appreciable influence in storm formation.

"Now that we are for the first time able to refer our weather directly back to the sun and begin to trace some definite laws where for so long only chaos seemed to reign, it is reasonable to expect that with the continuation of the extremely valuable work of Abbot and the interpretations of Carothers and other meteorologists, we shall soon be able to foresee the general character of the seasons a year in advance. In this connection, I may quote from my annual report of 1908, with some feelings of satisfaction, showing that I had anticipated the result now accomplished. It is as follows:

"'The science of meteorology is not to be confined to the atmosphere of the earth, because the changes in the action of the atmosphere of the sun precede the variations of the earth's air, which finally culminate in a certain type of season. Thus, wet and dry seasons, warm and cold summers and winters, and all the other climatic differences, first depend upon the persistence of certain high and low areas of pressure in one locality or another, and these may be due to the solar radiation, which itself changes with the output of energy from the interior of the sun. Thus, meteorology is really a closely-allied but difficult branch of solar physics, and it ought to be studied with the aid of a fully equipped observatory devoted especially to such research. The study of the records of all the various forms of solar activity indicate that the sun, in fact, is a great variable star, and that terrestrial weather may change in cynchronism with it. In short, the entire field of cosmical processes form a complex problem which especially concerns the meteorologist; and by him should be studied out for the benefit of mankind, whose life and happiness depend so largely upon the weather. I am