ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010

Faisal Basri
15 November 2009
 Bagian I
Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini
 Summary
¾ Perekonomian dunia sudah menunjukkan
recovery,
eco e y, lebih
eb cepa
cepat da
dari pe
perkiraan
aa
sebelumnya, kecuali AS yang masih rentan.
¾ Tulang punggung pemulihan adalah Emerging
M k t EM)
Markets EM), khususnya
kh EM
EM-Asia,
A i lebih
l bih khusus
kh
lagi Asia Timur. Bahkan kawasan ini pulih
sangat cepat dan mendahului negara
negara-negara
negara
maju (fenomena baru).
¾ Perlu diwaspadai:
p
• Tekanan inflasi
• Volatilitas nilai tukar.
• Kenaikan
K ik hharga-harga h komoditi,
k diti tterutama
t minyak,
i k
karena kenaikan real demand
 The world economy is facing a deep
downturn in 2009
In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected
to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year.
Description Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09

World GDP growth, % 3.9 3.0 2.2 0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1

-United States 0.8 0.1 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7

-Euro Area 1.2 0.2 -0.5 -2.0 -3.2 -4.2 -4.8 -4.2

-Japan 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -2.6 -5.8 -6.2 -6.0 -5.4

-Developing economies 6.7 6.1 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7

-China 9.8 9.3 8.5 6.7 - 6.5 7.5 8.5

-Asean-5 5.6 5.5 4.5 2.7 - 0.0 -0.3 0.7

World trade growth, % 6.0 4.1 2.0 -2.8 - -11.0 -12.2 -11.9
Not available. It’s been a lousy year for forecasters
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. all over the world.)
 Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.
Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) December 2009
5:14 p.m. EDT

US$76.54 =  

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

ƒAdjusted by producer-price index = US$118

j
ƒAdjusted by
y annual income within G-7 countries = US$134
$
ƒAdjusted by disposable income of US = US$145
ƒSpending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
• Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market

= 10,270.47

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
 Euro Zone: green shoots
The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone,
Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after
falling
a g for
o four
ou quarters.
qua e s

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html
Business confidence is surging across
EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1

¾ Business confidence is surging across European

manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead.
¾O
Optimism
ti i about
b t production
d ti ttrends d iis bbackk att llevels
l
seen before the intensification of the global
slowdown late last year
year, and points to a clear growth
in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010.
¾ Th
The so-called
ll d “B
“Bric”
i ” countries
t i – Brazil,
B il R Russia,
i India
I di
and China – have also seen a strong rebound in
man fact ring confidence
manufacturing confidence, ..
 Emerging Asia: an
an astonishing rebound
ƒ The four emerging Asian economies
which have reported GDP figures for
the second quarter (China,
(China Indonesia,
Indonesia
South Korea and Singapore) grew by
an average annualised rate of more
th 10%.
than 10%
Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009.

ƒ Hong Kong joins Asia

Asia’ss rapid climb out of recession.
recession Hong
Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the
second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had
expected,
t d adding
ddi to t evidence
id that
th t the
th recovery was solidifying
lidif i in
i
much of Asia, according to data published Friday.
ƒ China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds
d i the
during h April-to-June
A il J period.
i d
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.
 Change in value of exports (year-
(year-over
over--year)

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
 U.S.: The case for optimism
ƒ Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic
Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And
now is no time to discount the dangers
that still exist. But opening your mind to
optimism can help you seize the
opportunities
t iti ahead h d ....

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories
 U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
 Deepening the pain: job losses pile up
Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment
rateshot up to 10.2% in October 2009, a 26-year high.
0

‐1000

‐2000

‐3000

‐4000

‐5000

‐6000
Cumulative (000)
‐7000
Montly job losses  (000)
‐8000
8000
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

Source: U.S. Labor Department.

 U.S. consumer confidence index

Indeks kepercayaan
k
konsumen adalah
d l h salah
l h
satu leading economic
indicator bagi
perekonomian.
k i Setelah
S t l h
mengalami penurunan
pada bulan Juni dan
J li consumer
Juli,
Confidence Index naik
tajam pada bulan
A t menjadi
Agustus j di 54
54.11
dari 47.4 sebulan
sebelumnya.

Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
 Bagian II
Perekonomian
k Indonesia
 Summary
¾ Perekonomian Indonesia ternyata bisa bertahan dari
deraan krisis global dengan pertumbuhan masih di
atas 4 persen.
¾ Kekuatan utama adalah pasar domestik yang cukup
besar.
¾ Pertumbuhan belum berkualitas,
berkualitas sektor tradable masih
merana.
¾ Perlu pembenahan kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan
fiskal.
¾ Peluang terbuka lebar bagi FDI untuk imbangi modal
jangka pendek.
 The transmission of stress

Sources: IMF, April 2009.

 Sumber daya tahan
¾ Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait
erat dengan sektor finansial AS.
¾ Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator
kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata
negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik.
¾ Current account masih surplus.
¾ Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil.
¾ Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS
AS, Eropa
Eropa, dan Jepang sudah
menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean.
¾ Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa.
¾ Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $50 $ per barrel.
¾ Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam
CPI mengalami
g deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir).
)
¾ Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang
kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.
 East Asia entered the current crisis
better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis
(in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise)

Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Countries more dependent on exports will
likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown

Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.
Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia
Ingat: Peran Singapura !!!

From Asean Indonesia

To 2000 2007 2000 2007
Developing Asia 37,4 41,2 33,1 37,1
China 3,7 8,9 4,2 8,1
Japan 12,6 9,4 22,1 18,1
United States
United States 18 2
18,2 12 2
12,2 13 0
13,0 94
9,4
European Union 14,4 11,1 13,7 10,0
Others 13,7 17,2 13,7 17,3
Sources: ADB, March 2009
 Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal
WSJ, March 21, 2009
Stimulus Dilemma
for China
Spending
p g on Public
Works Risks Making
Production Glut Worse
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009

terjun bebas.
bebas Pemerintah “pasrah
pasrah.” Stimulus
jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena
hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk
pembenahan
b h iinfrastruktur
f t kt fisik.
fi ik Segalanya
S l
sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.
 The World competitiveness scoreboard
Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Singapore 4 2 3 3 2 2 3
Hong Kong 10 6 2 2 3 3 2
Switzerland 9 14 8 8 6 4 4
Australia 7 4 9 6 12 7 7
China 27 22 29 18 15 17 20
Taiwan 17 12 11 17 18 13 23
Malaysia 21 16 26 22 23 19 18
India 42 30 33 27 27 29 30
K
Korea 32 31 27 32 29 31 27
Thailand 28 26 25 29 33 27 26
Philippines 41 43 40 42 45 40 43
Indonesia 49 49 50 52 54 51 42
Venezuela 51 51 51 53 55 55 57
Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.
Economic temperature cooler ..
Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %
18.4
18
16
14.6
14
percentt

12
10
8
6
4 46
4.6
2 2.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0

Source: BPS.
BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0

90
9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

Source: Bank Indonesia.

BI rate turun tapi SBI naik terus

Rp Trn persen
300 12

280
11
260

240
10
220

200 9

180
8
160

140
7
120

100 6
2007 2008 2009
SBI Outstanding (sumbu kiri) BI Rate (sumbu kanan)
SBI 1-bulan (sumbu kanan)
Pertumbuhan suplai uang relatif rendah

YoY%
50

40

30

20

10

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-10
M2 M1 M0
-20
Belanja pemerintah masih seret
Rp Trn percent
250 14
Rekening Pem erintah di BI
Inter Bank Rate 12
200 BI Rate

10

150
8

6
100

4
50
2

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
 9,500
9,000
8,500

12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
8-Apr

22-Jul

15-Oct

12-Jan

11-Apr

Jul-05

27-Sep

23-Dec

17-Mar

14-Jun

7-Sep

6-Dec

1-Mar

28-May

20-Aug
(Rupiah per US$)

16-Nov

20-Feb

16-May

8-Aug

6-Nov

Feb-05
Heart beat has been appreciating ...

May-04

Jul-28

23-Oct
Source: Bank Indonesia
 W

30000.00
35000.00
40000.00
45000 00
45000.00
50000.00
55000.00
60000.00
65000.00
1-
J
W a
2-
F
W e
3-
M
W a
4-
A

Source: Bank Indonesia.

W p
1-
Jn
W
2-
W Jl
3
W -Ag
4-
S
W ep
1-
N
W ov
2-
D
W ec
3-
J
W an
4-
F
W eb
1-
A
W pr
2-
M
W ay
3-
Ju
SBY era

W n
4-
W Jul
1-
S
W ep
2-
O
W ct
3-
N
W ov
4-
D
W ec
2-
A
31 pr
-A
u
31 g
-J
(US$ million)

29 an
-J
31 un
-A
ug
5-
O
15 c t
-N
19 ov
-D
e
31 c
-J
a
6- n
M
a
15 r
-A
23 pr
-M
30 ay
-J
u
7- n
A
15 ug
-S
e
24 p
-O
Fe ct
b-
2
Ju 7
l- 3
1
Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil
bil..
JSX index recovered significantly

Business Week,
Week 14-21 Maret 2007
2007, hal.18.
hal 18
 Balance of payments (US$ million)
2008 Q3‐08 Q4‐08 Q1‐09 Q2‐09 H1‐09
I.   CURRENT ACCOUNT 285 ‐891 ‐684 2,885  3,104 5,989
A G d
A. Goods, net (Trade Balance)
t (T d B l ) 22 916
22,916 5 771
5,771 4 166
4,166 6 969
6,969 8 705
8,705 15 674
15,674
1. Exports, f.o.b. 139,606 38,081 29,768 24,205 27,509 51,714
2. Imports, f.o.b. ‐116,690 ‐32,309 ‐25,603 ‐17,236 ‐18,805 36,041
B S i
B. Services, net ‐12,745
12 745 ‐3,195
3 195 ‐3,288
3 288 ‐2,535
2 535 ‐3,097
3 097 ‐5,632
5 632
C. Income, net ‐15,271 ‐4,803 ‐2,879 ‐2,672 ‐3,714 6,386
D. Current Transfers, net 5,385 1,336 1,317 1,122 1,210 2,332
II.  CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ‐1,354 904 ‐3,340 1,750 ‐2,414 ‐664
A. Capital Account 294 187 29 19 29 48
B. Financial Account ‐1,648 717 ‐3,368 1,731 ‐2,443 ‐712
1. Direct investment 2,799 404 2,061 1,660 9 1,669
2. Portfolio investment 1,721 ‐74 ‐ 4,377 1,859 2,003 3,862
3. Other investment ‐6,167 387 ‐1,052 ‐1,788 ‐4,455 ‐6,243
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS ‐876 ‐103 ‐188  ‐680 362 ‐318
IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS 1,945 89 4,212  ‐3,955 ‐1,052 ‐5,007
Source: Bank Indonesia.
 The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006
FDI flows to GFCF FDI stocks to GDP
Country Percent Country Percent
Venezuela -2.1 Indonesia 5.2
Bangladesh 3.9 India 5.7
Sri Lanka 6.2 Bangladesh 6.3
Indonesia 6.4 Sri Lanka 10.9
China 8.0 China 11.1
India 8.7 Pakistan 11.4
Argentina 9.6 Taiwan 14.2
Taiwan 10.3 Philippines 14.6
Brazil 10.5 Peru 20.7
Vietnam 12.5 Brazil 20.8
Philippines 14.1 Venezuela 25.0
Thailand 16.5 Argentina 27.4
Peru 18.9 Thailand 33.0
Bolivia 19.5 Malaysia 36.0
Malaysia 20.1 Ecuador 39.9
Pakistan 24.1 Cambodia 41.6
Ecuador 24.8 Bolivia 44.6
Chile 28.3 Vietnam 54.8
Cambodia 38.9 Chile 55.4
Singapore 79.5 S
Singapore 1 90
159.0
Asia 12.9 Asia 24.9
South America 13.1 South America 26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
Indonesia’s post
post--crisis journey
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

6.6

6.4
5.2
7

4.2
4.0
5

4
3
1
-1

-3
-5
-7
-9 Gus Dur:
-11 “Erratic/shaky”
-13
Megawati:
-15 Consolidation and
-17 acceleration
-19
SBY: Throws away
-21
21 Momentum and then made
Momentum,
correction
Crisis
peak Source: BPS.
 Low quality — Sectoral growth rate
(2000 base year
year, year-
year-on
on--year growth rate
rate, %)

2007 2008 Q1-09 Q2-09 H1-09 H1-Share

T d bl
Tradable 39
3.9 34
3.4 26
2.6 1 93
1.93 23
2.3 48 4
48.4
Agriculture 3.4 4.8 5.2 2.4 3.7 14.0
Miningg & Q
Quarrying
y g 2.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 8.2
Manufacturing 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 26.2
Non-Tradable 8.8 8.7 6.1 6.2 6.0 51.7
Electricity, Gas & Water 10.3 10.9 11.4 15.4 13.4 0.8
Construction 8.6 7.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3
Trade, Hotel & Rest. 8.4 7.2 0.5 -0.1
0.1 0.2 16.6
Transport & Comm. 14.0 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.3 8.7
Finance 8.0 8.2 6.3 5.3 5.8 9.7
Services 6.6 6.4 6.8 7.4 7.1 9.6
GDP 6.3 6.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 100.0
Source: BPS.
Low quality growth, 2000
2000--200
2009*
9* (%)
10
Non-tradable
8

6
GDP
4

Tradable
2

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

* January-June.
Source: BPS.
 GDP growth by expenditure (y-
(y-o-y, %)

2009
Description 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 H1 H1‐Share
Private consumption
p 3,2
, 5,0
, 5,3
, 6,0
, 4,8
, 5,4
, 57,1
,

Government consumption 9,6 3,9 10,4 19,2 17,0 18,0 7,1

Fixed investment
Fixed investment 2,6 9,4 11,7 3,4 2,7 3,0 23,2

Domestic demand 3,6 6,0 7,4 6,2 5,3 5,8 87,5

Exports 94
9,4 85
8,5 9 5 ‐18
9,5 18,7
7 ‐15
15,7
7 ‐17
17,2
2 23 7
23,7
Imports 8,6 9,0 10,0 ‐26,0 ‐23,9 ‐24,9 20,6

GDP 55
5,5 63
6,3 61
6,1 44
4,4 40
4,0 42
4,2 100 0
100,0
Source: BPS..
Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..
Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals
Visitors: Growth:
Jan-Sep 2008 = 4,570,492 Sep 2009 (m-t-m) = -12.88%
Jan-Sep 2009 = 4,619,483 Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.07%
700000
2008 2009

600000

500000

400000
00000
May
Mar

May
Mar
Oct
Jan

Jan
Feb

Feb
Sep

Sep
Dec
Jun

Jun
Nov
Jul

Jul
Apr

Apr
Aug

Aug
Sources: BPS
Indeks tendensi konsumen

110

100

90

Q3-09 is prediction.
Source: BPS.
Indeks tendensi bisnis

120

110

100

90

Q3-09 is prediction.
Source: BPS.
 Bagian III
Liingkungan Politik
 Decoupling between politics and
economic activities?
Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8
March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than
300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than
Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world.

Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries

attended the 5th World Islamic Economic Forum,
i Jakarta,
in J k t 11-44 M
Marchh 2009
2009.
The 42th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the 
Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4‐5 May 2009. 
The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will 
commence from 2 May 2009.
World Ocean Conference,
to be held in Manado on
May 11-14, 2009.
Major bombings since 2002

Place Date

Bali I October 12, 2002

JW Marriot August 5, 2003

Australian Embassy September 9, 2004

a II
Bali October 1,, 2005
Octobe 005

Ritz Carlton & JW Marriot July 17, 2009

The impact of bombings
bombings to the economy
ƒ IDR/US$ index, days
after terror attacts

ƒ 0 = day of bomb blast

Sou ce Helmi
Source: e Armand,a d, “Indonesia
do es a
Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts:
Possible market implication,“17 July 2009.

ƒ Indonesia composite index,

days after terror attacts

ƒ 0 = day of bomb blast

Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia

Economic Briefingg –Jakarta Blasts:
Possible market implication,” 17 July 2009.
 Kecenderungan umum
¾ Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung
g damai.
sangat
¾ Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan
proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya
penguatan
t kkelembagaan.
l b
¾ Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik
ki i maupun kanan
kiri k Æ konvergensi
k i id
ideologi
l i atau,
t
bahkan, non-ideologis.
¾ Praktis
P kti ttakk terjadi
t j di perubahan
b h rezim.i Y Yang sekarang
k
bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru:
Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko
Kesra Æ kompromistik.
Penciutan jumlah partai

¾ Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan

pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5
persen.
¾ Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9
(sembilan) partai.
¾ Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan
partai oposisi akan lebih tegas.
tegas
¾ Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks &
balances yang lebih efektif.
Kian konvergen

¾ Partai “kiri”
kiri tak ada yang lolos.
¾ Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP
¾ Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula
yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.)
¾ Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN)
¾ Partai tengah menggelembung (PD
(PD, Golkar,
Golkar
Gerindra, Hanura)
Peluang jangan disia-siakan

¾ Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang

panjang,
j kkarena incumbent.
i b t
p satu pputaran memberikan waktu yyangg
¾ Pilpres
cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya
g lebih baik.
dengan
¾ Tim ekonomi pada KIB-II lebih kredibel,
kompeten dan kompak.
kompak
¾ RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus.
 Bagian IV
Prospek 2010
The world economic outlook
outlook, 2009-2010
2009 2010
Description 2009 2010
World GDP growth, % -1.1 3.1
-United States -2 7
-2.7 15
1.5
-Euro Area -4.2 0.3
-Japan
Japan -5.4
54 17
1.7
-Developing economies 1.7 5.1
-China
Chi 85
8.5 90
9.0
-Asean-5 0.7 4.0
World trade growth, % -11.9 2.5
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..
Indonesia upgraded!!!
¾ Despite the weakness of the global economy, the
Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for
Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP
to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a
contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We
expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from
0 5% previously.
0.5% i l (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the
Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.)

¾ IMF (June 5, 5 2009): Looking forward,

forward we have raised
our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4
ppercent ((from 2.5
2.5%)) with inflation expected
p to decline to
about 5 percent by the end of the year. .
Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm
Projections of GDP by several agencies

No Agency Date 2009 2010

1 Bank Indonesia March 2009 3.5 5.0
2 IIF July 2009 4.5 5.5

3 Gov’tt oof Indonesia

Go do es a September
Septe be 2009
009 4.55 55.55

4 ADB September 2009 4.3 5.4

5 World Bank September 2009 4.3 5.4

6 Economist October 2009 4.2 4.5

7 IMF October 2009 4.0 4.8

EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy
GDP growth, percent

Source: The Economist, various issues.

 Projections of GDP by expenditures

2008 2009* 2010*

Description
BI Bappenas FB FB
Private consumption 5,3 3,7 3.5 5.1 4.8‐5.0
Gov’t consumption 10,4 9,9 7.7 13.2 7.6‐10.5
Investment 11,7 6,0 5.0 4.5 7.1‐7.6
Exports (goods & 
services) 9,5 ‐4.6
4.6 ‐6.0
6.0 ‐16.2
16.2 6.3‐6.4
6.3 6.4
Imports (goods & 
services 10,0 ‐4.8 ‐9.0 ‐21.8 8.0
G
Gross domestic product
d i d 61
6,1 40
4,0 40
4.0 47
4,7 5459
5.4‐5.9
* Projection
 Projections of GDP by sector

Economic sector 2008 2009* 2010*

1. Agriculture 4.8 3.9 3.4-3.6
2. Mining 0.5 1.5 0.4-1.6
3 Manufacturing
3. M f t i 3.7 2.5 3.1-3.9
4. Utilities 10.9 11.1 10.7-11.2
5 Construction
5. 73
7.3 64
6.4 6972
6.9-7.2
6. Trade and hospitality 7.2 2.3 4.6-5.7
7. Transport and communications 16.7 15.5 15.2-16.6
15.2 16.6
8. Finance 8.2 6.2 6.5-6.9
9. Services 6.4 6.5 6.5
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9
* Projection
Projection of selected economic indicators

2008 2009 2010

GDP growth, % 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9

Inflation, % 11.2 3.8 4.5-5.5

Current account, % of GDP 0.1 1.0 0.6-0.8

0.6 0.8

BI rate, year end, % 9.25 6.25 7.00

Rp/US$, period average 9,767 10,050 9,250-9,500

Fiscal balance, % of GDP -0.1 -2.0 -1.5

Open unemployment, % 8.4 8.1 8.0

Rupiah cenderung menguat
¾ Sepanjang likuiditas yang melimpah di AS belum
disedot The Fed, nilai US$ akan cenderung melemah.
¾ Dengan pasar domestik yang cukup besar, Indonesia
semakin menarik bagi FDI. Beberapa sudah masuk.
Akan cukup banyak yang menyusul, asalkan ..
¾ Moody’s
Moody s sudah meningkatkan rating Indonesia.
Indonesia Jika tak
ada halangan mendasar, S & P pun diperkirakan bakal
melakukan upgrade
pg dari BB+ menjadi
j BBB-. Dengan g
begitu, institutional investors akan semakin tertarik
masuk ke pasar modal kita.
¾ Namun volatilitas Rupiah harus tetap diwaspadai.
External vulnerability: regional comparison
– economic perception
Too big, too high

Bloomberg commodity price

index

Should
be here

Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External

Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008
 Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut pengeluaran
Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

K
Konsumsi
i masyarakat
k t 55
5,5 48
4,8 46
4,6 47
4,7 48
4,8 49
4,9
Konsumsi pemerintah 13,2 7,6 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,7
Investasi* 4,0 7,1 7,6 8,7 8,3 7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa -16,2
16 2 64
6,4 77
7,7 12 2
12,2 14 8
14,8 15 3
15,3
Impor barang & jasa -21,8 8,0 8,2 13,8 15,1 15,5
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,4 5,8 6,3 6,9 7,1

Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

K
Konsumsi
i masyarakat
k t 51
5,1 50
5,0 47
4,7 48
4,8 46
4,6 50
5,0
Konsumsi pemerintah 13,2 10,5 8,6 8,9 9,2 9,7
Investasi* 5,0 7,6 9,0 11,6 11,1 7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa -16,2 6,4 9,8 12,2 14,2 15,7
Impor barang & jasa -21,8 8,0 10,2 13,5 14,8 15,5
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,4 7,4
 Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor
Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1. Pertanian 3,3 3,4 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,5
2 Pertambangan
2. 0,4 0,4 03
0,3 04
0,4 11
1,1 09
0,9
3. Industri manufaktur 2,6 3,1 4,5 5,1 5,3 6,0
4. Utilitas 10,6 10,7 10,6 10,7 10,7 10,7
5. Konstruksi 7,2 7,3 7,0 7,1 7,1 7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 2,4 4,6 5,3 6,7 7,0 7,1
7. Transport & komunikasi 16,1 15,2 14,3 14,5 16,7 16,3
8. Keuangan 8,0 7,9 7,4 7,5 7,4 7,5
9 Jasa-jasa
9. 66
6,6 65
6,5 66
6,6 66
6,6 66
6,6 63
6,3
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,4 5,8 6,3 6,8 7,1
 Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor
Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1. Pertanian 3,9 3,6 3,8 4,0 4,1 4,2
e a ba ga
2. Pertambangan 1,5
, 1,6
, 2,3
,3 2,7
, 2,2
, 2,0
,0
3. Industri manufaktur 2,6 3,9 4,8 5,5 6,3 6,5
4. Utilitas 11,2 11,2 11,5 11,7 11,7 11,4
5. Konstruksi 6,4 6,9 7,5 7,5 7,3 7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 2,3 5,7 6,6 7,3 7,6 7,4
7. Transport & komunikasi 16,5 16,6 15,6 17,7 16,7 16,3
8. Keuangan 6,2 6,9 7,5 7,6 7,5 6,9
9 Jasa
9. Jasa-jasa
jasa 66
6,6 65
6,5 66
6,6 66
6,6 66
6,6 63
6,3
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,4 7,4
 Kebutuhan investasi
Skenario Indikator 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi,, %YoY 6.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.1

PDB Nominal, Rp Tril 4954 5795 6791 8015 9479 11299 13548

Baseline Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776

Investasi/PDB, % 27.6 29.3 29.0 30.0 30.4 28.7 27.9

ICOR 3.7 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY 6.1 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.4

PDB Nominal
Nominal, Rp Tril 4954 5795 6823 8104 9661 11577 13916

Adjustment Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879

Investasi/PDB, % 27.6 29.3 29.0 30.0 30.4 28.7 27.9

ICOR 3.7 5.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6

 Sumber dana investasi
Skenario Sumber Unit 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F

Nilai, Rp T 1179 1500 1700 2091 2517 2815 3286

Swasta
Pangsa %
Pangsa, 86 1
86.1 88 3
88.3 86 4
86.4 87 0
87.0 87 2
87.2 86 9
86.9 87 0
87.0

Nilai, Rp T 191 198 267 314 368 425 490

Pemerintah
Baseline Pangsa, % 13.9 11.7 13.6 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.0

Nilai, Rp T 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776

Total
Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Peningkatan PDB Rp T 1005 841 996 1224 1464 1820 2249

Nilai, Rp T 1179 1500 1708 2114 2565 2885 3376

Swasta
P
Pangsa, % 86 1
86.1 88 3
88.3 86 4
86.4 87 0
87.0 87 2
87.2 86 9
86.9 87 0
87.0

Nilai, Rp T 191 198 268 317 375 436 503

Pemerintah
Adjustment Pangsa, % 13.9 11.7 13.6 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.0

Nilai,, Rp
pT 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879
Total
Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Peningkatan PDB Rp T 1005 841 1028 1280 1557 1916 2339

Catatan: - Investasi Pemerintah adalah Belanja Barang Modal Pemerintah Pusat + Pemerintah Dati I & II

- Peningkatan PDB menggambarkan jumlah utang maksimum yang bisa dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah
dengan menjaga rasio DEBT/GDP tetap konstan.
Keunikan Indonesia
Negara kepulauan
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang 
mampu mengintegrasikan 
perekonomian domestik menuju 
negara maju yang berkeadilan
 Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan
VISI:
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan

M 1. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan;
I
S 2. Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja;
I 3. Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.

Melalui p
pencapaian
p 5(
(lima)
) sasaran strategis:
g
Struktur Sumber
Pemanfaatan Birokrasi yang
ekonomi yang Sumber daya pembiayaan
SDA secara kompeten,
kokoh, mandiri manusia pembangunan
optimal dan efektif dan
dan berdaya produktif mencukupi dan
lestari bersih
saing efisien

Fokus pada
pada 7 area kebijakan
kebijakan::

Infrastruktur Kualitas sumber Teknologi Pasar tenaga  Pasar modal  Pasar barang: Kebijakan

• Penyediaan daya manusia • Peningkatan dan kerja: dan perbankan: • Sistem distribusi afirmatif:
infrastruktur (fisik
( • Implementasi 
l i efisiensi alokasi 
fi i i l k i • P
Penyempurnaan  • M
Mobilisasi dana 
bili i d yang efisien
yang efisien.  • Active industrial 
dan non fisik)  sistem pendanaan  anggaran negara UU  masyarakat:  • Perlindungan  policy: men‐
yang handal; kesehatan  untuk ketenagakerjaan; tabungan haji,  wajar bagi  dorong kegiatan
penelitian; • Peningkatan  surplus dana produsen  usaha potensial
• Skema pendanaan berkelanjutan dan 
• Insentif kegiatan  penyerapan  masyarakat. domestik dari  dan strategis;
• Kebijakan harga terencana; • Monetisasi asset  persaingan tidak 
R&D oleh  tenaga kerja  • Penguatan
infrastruktur. • Pembangunan  sektor formal; negara; adil dengan 
swasta; struktur pelaku
pendidikan
pendidikan  • Implementasi 
Implementasi • Peningkatan 
Peningkatan produsen luar
produsen luar  usaha;
h
mengacu pada  sistem jaminan  basis pajak.  negeri; • Persebaran 
output. sosial bagi  spasial kegiatan 
pekerja; ekonomi 

Lingkungan sosial dan politik Kerangka kelembagaan Struktur pasar 68

SUPRASTRUKTUR
Logistic cost in comparison
 Port efficiency
Container handling cost per  Ship movement per hour 
40 feet (US$) (unit)

L. Chabang, Thailand 43 L. Chabang, Thailand 75

Chittagong, Bangladesh 60 Chittagong,
g g Bangladesh
g 10
Kwangyang, Korea 69 Kwangyang, Korea 80
Port Klang, Malaysia 70 Port Klang, Malaysia 50
Manila, Philippines 85 Minila, Philippines 20
Keohsiung,Taiwan 88 Keohsiung, Taiwan 75
T. Priok, Indonesia 130 T. Priok, Indonesia 35

Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008.

Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the

productivity is the lowest among neighbouring countris
Waspada

¾ Recovery ekonomi dunia yang pesat tahun

2010 mendorong kenaikan real demand
untuk commodities. Harga minyak bisa
kembali menembus US$100 per barrel.
¾ Implementasi FTA dengan China bisa
mengganggu pemulihan industri manufaktur.
¾ Skandal
Sk d l demi
d i skandal
k d l akank tterkuak,
k k
menyentuh lapisan elit.
 Terima Kasih

Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
faisal basri@gmail com
Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri