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Scenario and
Estimation of future
prospects of Portfolio
Management
Ashwati Nair 38
1
Chapter Topics Page
1 Portfolio Management 3
2 Equity markets
• Present Prospects 3
• Trends 4
• Participants 5
• Reforms 6
3 Insurance
• Present Scenario 9
• Reforms 11
4 Mutual Funds
5 Debt Markets
Bibliography 32
Portfolio Management
2
Definition of Portfolio Management:
Equity Markets
Present scenario
3
Indian equities trade at more than 17 times forecast earnings for
2010, compared with a five-year average of 16.2 times earnings.
By comparison, emerging market equities in general trade on an
average of 12 times 2010 earnings, while Russia trades at just 6.7
times forecast earnings. That is a hefty premium. Relative to past
trading history, the Indian equity market looks fully priced. Within
an emerging markets context it looks upwards.
Trends
4
• Antiquated and abused badla system or ALBM stands
abolished. In its place, for hedging and trading purposes, a
number of derivatives – in the form of futures and options,
both index-based and stocks-specific have been introduced.
• RTGS/NTGS is introduced
Participants
5
merchant bankers, underwriters, portfolio managers,
investment advisers, and other such intermediaries who may
be associated with the securities market in any manner.
Reforms
6
all material facts and specific risk factors associated with their
projects while making public issues.
7
• Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) introduces screen-based trading;
15 stock exchanges now have screened-based trading. BSE
granted permission to expand its trading network to other
centres.
8
• Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) allowed access to Indian
capital markets on registration with SEBI.
Insurance
Present Scenario
9
According to IRDA, total premium collected in 2009-10 was US$
24.64 billion, an increase of 25.46 per cent over US$ 19.64 billion
collected in 2008-09.
General Insurance:
The public sector players posted 13.85 per cent growth in gross
premium in 2009-10. At the same time, private players recorded a
12.82 per cent increase in gross premium till March 2010.
10
the key factors driving the market growth. Furthermore, the
report also identifies what could be the possible growth areas for
expansion and gives a detailed overview of the competitive
landscape. The Indian health insurance market has continued to
post record growth in the last two fiscals (2008-09 and 2009-10).
Moreover, as per the RNCOS estimates, the health insurance
premium is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of over 25 per cent for the period spanning from 2009-10
to 2013-14.
11
Insurance underwriters: Underwriters collect premiums from
all those insured and pay out any claims. They determine the
premium rates to be charged and the level of cover provided for
each policy. Their underwriting guidelines set out which risks can
be insured and whether standard policy terms will apply or
whether special conditions are necessary.
Reforms
Key Recommendations of Malhotra Committee
Structure
Competition
Regulatory Body
12
• Controller of Insurance should be made independent.
Investments
Customer Service
Mutual Funds
13
Definition
14
Large Cap Funds: Large cap funds are those mutual funds,
which seek capital appreciation by investing primarily in stocks
of large blue chip companies with above-average prospects for
earnings growth.
Mid Cap Funds: Mid cap funds are those mutual funds, which
invest in small / medium sized companies. As there is no
standard definition classifying companies as small or
medium, each mutual fund has its own classification for
small and medium sized companies. Generally, companies
with a market capitalization of up to Rs 500 crore are
classified as small. Those companies that have a market
capitalization between Rs 500 crore and Rs 1,000 crore are
classified as medium sized.
Growth Funds: Growth funds are those mutual funds that aim
to achieve capital appreciation by investing in growth stocks.
They focus on those companies, which are experiencing
significant earnings or revenue growth, rather than companies
that pay out dividends. Growth funds tend to look for the fastest-
growing companies in the market.
15
Value Funds: Value funds are those mutual funds that tend to
focus on safety rather than growth, and often choose
investments providing dividends as well as capital
appreciation. They invest in companies that the market
has overlooked, and stocks that have fallen out of favour
with mainstream investors, either due to changing
investor preferences, a poor quarterly earnings report, or
hard times in a particular industry.
16
Growth Facts & Market Share
Income 347,321 49
Equity 179,200 25
Balanced 18,781 3
GILT 3,324 1
ELSS-Equity 25,598 4
Source: amfiindia.com
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Debt Markets
18
Advantages
Disadvantages
19
Types of Debt Instruments
There are various types of debt instruments available that one
can find in Indian debt market.
20
CRISIL etc. that offer ratings of CDs. CDs are available in the
denominations of Rs. 1 Lac and in multiple of that.
21
• A new segment called the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM)
was established at the NSE to report the trading volume of
the Government of India bonds market
22
• Commercial Paper rates in India are attractive at 7.5 per
cent and after deduction of cost of hedging, that is, 3.6 per
cent (one year rupee dollar forward), FIIs would still make
3.9 per cent, far higher than the 1.1 per cent on the one-
year US Dollar LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)
23
- For the expected rate of inflation, and
24
The choice of an optimal measure to assess the performance of
an actively managed portfolio depends on the role of the
observed portfolio. For example, Sharpe's ratio is used when the
portfolio represents the entire investment fund, Treynor measure
- when the scrutinized portfolio represents one sub-portfolio of
many, and the Information ratio can be applied to measure the
return, when the portfolio under question is composed of both
actively and passively managed portfolios.
25
address such issues as whether the performance was superior or
inferior, whether the performance was due to skill or luck etc.
a) Sharpe’s Measure
b) Treynor’s Measure
c) Jensen’s Measure
26
is in the denominator as standard deviation of its return. We will
get a measure of portfolio’s total risk and variability of return in
relation to the risk premium. The measure of a portfolio can be
done by the following formula:
SI =(Rt – Rf)/σf
Where,
SI = Sharpe’s Index
Tn =(Rn – Rf)/βm
27
higher return than expected for the accepted riskiness. The ability
to earn returns through successful prediction of security prices on
a standard measurement. The Jensen measure of the
performance of portfolio can be calculated by applying the
following formula:
Rp = Rf + (RMI – Rf) x β
Where,
Rp = Return on portfolio
28
standard of integrity, honesty and should not have been convicted
of any economic offence or moral turpitude. He should not resort
to rigging up of prices, insider trading or creating false markets,
etc. their books of accounts are subject to inspection to inspection
and audit by S.E.B.I. The observance of the code of conduct and
guidelines given by the S.E.B.I. are subject to inspection and
penalties for violation are imposed. The manager has to submit
periodical returns and documents as may be required by the SEBI
from time-to- time.
29
The portfolio manager is required to have a minimum net worth of
Rs. 2 crore.
Registration fee to be paid by the portfolio managers
Yes. Every portfolio manager is required to pay Rs. 10 lakhs as
registration fees at the time of grant of certificate of registration
by SEBI.
Validity period for the certificate of registration to remain
valid
The certificate of registration remains valid for three years. The
portfolio manager has to apply for renewal of its registration
certificate to SEBI, 3 months before the expiry of the validity of
the certificate, if it wishes to continue as a registered portfolio
manager.
30
However, the regulations provide that the portfolio manager shall
charge a fee as per the agreement with the client for rendering
portfolio management services. The fee so charged may be a
fixed amount or a return based fee or a combination of both. The
portfolio manager shall take specific prior permission from the
client for charging such fees for each activity for which service is
rendered by the portfolio manager directly or indirectly (where
such service is outsourced).
31
(c) Beneficial interest received during that period in respect of
interest, dividend, bonus shares, rights shares and debentures;
(e) Details of risk foreseen by the portfolio manager and the risk
relating to the securities recommended by the portfolio manager
for investment or disinvestment.
No. SEBI does not approve any of the services offered by the
Portfolio Manager. An investor has to invest in the services based
on the terms and conditions laid out in the disclosure document
32
and the agreement between the portfolio manager and the
investor.
33
Bibliography
www.strategy2act.com
www.sebi.gov.in
www.amfiindia.com
www.equitymaster.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.money.rediff.com
www.irda.com
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www.google.com/news
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