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INDIAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) CALCULATION & ANALYSIS

2009

ABHIJIT SAMANTA
Data taken up to March 2009.
Source of Data: Business Beacon (CMIE, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)

INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL OF BUSINESS & MEDIA; KOLKATA


Page |2

METHODOLOGY: -

Required data is collected from CMIE Business Beacon. The calculation of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is
done on two approaches

1. The Expenditure Approach.


2. Summed up gross domestic product from various sectors.

The required calculations are done on Microsoft Excel and then copied on MS Word. In representing the
growth, variations and the relationship with factors are represented on 2 dimensional graphs and analysis is
done.

The period used for GDP calculation is 1990-2009, last 20 years. In some of the calculations data up to 2008
is taken because of the non availability of 2009 data.

GDP Calculation with expenditure


approach: -

In this method first we find out various categories of final expenditure which are: -

1. Private Consumption Expenditure. (C )


2. Govt. final consumption expenditure. (G )
3. Expenditure on gross capital investment. (I )
4. Net export of goods and services. (N Ex)

Then we add up all the individual gross expenditure to find out the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Net export of goods and services = Export of goods and services – Import of goods and services.

The calculation is shown below.

GDP = C+ G + I + N Ex.
Page |3

All at constant price


Year Private final Government Gross Capital Net Exports of GDP =
Consumption final Investment Good & Services C+G+I+N Ex
Expenditure Consumption (I ) (N Ex) (Rs. Core)
(C ) Expenditure (Rs. Core) (Rs. Core)
(Rs. Core) (G )
(Rs. Core)

Mar-90 786725 138219 244049 -3748 1165245


Mar-91 821863 142914 270707 1974 1237458
Mar-92 839593 142674 245108 10073 1237448
Mar-93 861245 147599 278074 -2746 1284172
Mar-94 898682 156360 270165 -8575 1316632
Mar-95 942359 158523 321731 -21015 1401598
Mar-96 999729 170895 382142 -22864 1529902
Mar-97 1077445 178825 344795 -8058 1593007
Mar-98 1109656 198947 396774 -36060 1669317
Mar-99 1181797 223204 407811 -55373 1757439
Mar-00 1253643 252744 509518 -38005 1977900
Mar-01 1293822 255087 485049 -5734 2028224
Mar-02 1373355 260879 502116 174 2136524
Mar-03 1409960 259960 554734 32771 2257425
Mar-04 1497146 266599 633105 7532 2404382
Mar-05 1574565 276125 781622 27679 2659991
Mar-06 1687118 293265 930738 -72090 2839031
Mar-07 1793691 309293 1060108 -108306 3054786
Mar-08 1945668 332033 1220412 -148012 3350101
Mar-09 2001488 399262 1322101 -209060 3513791

GDP GROWTH ANALYSIS: -

The year to year growth analysis of GDP (in next page) shows that in the last 20 years period maximum
growth in GDP occurred in 2000 with 12.54%. The minimum growth occurred in 1992 and there were no
negative growth in the last 20 years of period.

However a clearer picture of GDP year to year growth is given with the application of a chart on the next
page.
Page |4

Year Growth
(%)

Mar-90 -
Mar-91 6.20 GDP Growth (%)
Mar-92 0.00 14.00
Mar-93 3.78 12.00
Mar-94 2.53 10.00
Mar-95 6.45 8.00
Mar-96 9.15 6.00 Growth
Mar-97 4.12 4.00 (%) -
Mar-98 4.79 2.00
0.00
Mar-99 5.28
-2.00
Mar-00 12.54
Mar-01 2.54
Mar-02 5.34
Mar-03 5.66
Mar-04 6.51
Mar-05 10.63
Mar-06 6.73
Mar-07 7.60
Mar-08 9.67
Mar-09 4.89

GDP GROWTH
overall (exact figure)
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
GDP

2000000
1500000
1000000 GDP

500000
0
Jan/90
Jan/91
Jan/92
Jan/93
Jan/94
Jan/95
Jan/96
Jan/97
Jan/98
Jan/99
Jan/00
Jan/01
Jan/02
Jan/03
Jan/04
Jan/05
Jan/06
Jan/07
Jan/08
Jan/09

YEAR
Page |5

Proportions of various factors in GDP: -

Proportion of various factors in GDP


100% Net Exports of Good & Services (N Ex)
80% (Rs. Crore)
% OF GDP

60%
Gross Capital Investment
40% (I )
20% (Rs. Crore)
Government final Consumption Expenditure
0%
(G )
(Rs. Crore)
Private final Consumption Expenditure
(C )
(Rs. Crore)

The above picture shows the proportion of various components in GDP. We can see that Private final
consumption expenditure contributes a maximum proportion in GDP almost 63% and Net export contributes
a very minimum portion.

GDP as summed up final production from


various sectors: -

In this approach we found out the final production of goods and services from various sectors and then we
sum up them to find out the GDP. The various sectors here are Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining etc.

GDP = ∑ Production from all the sectors.


Here the calculated GDP can vary with the previous calculation. It the only because of non availability of
proper data covering all the sectors.
Page |6
Year Agricul Fores Fishi Minin Manufact Manufact Electri Constru Trade Financ Social GDP
ture try & ng g & uring uring city, ction , e, & =
loggi quarr registere unregiste gas & hotel, insura perso ∑ of
ng ying d red water trans nce, nal all
supply port real servic secto
& estate es r
comm and
. busine
ss
servic
es
Mar- 29872 1649 115 26266 96057 58543 22082 59336 18904 10796 1431 1029
90 0 9 54 3 2 19 181
Mar- 31150 1628 121 29014 101467 60512 23559 66330 19877 11467 1493 1083
91 0 0 13 0 0 57 572
Mar- 30430 1640 125 29988 100189 57905 25843 67696 20389 12707 1532 1099
92 1 7 49 7 9 19 073
Mar- 32577 1602 136 30264 102253 60726 27636 70053 21527 13399 1624 1158
93 7 3 21 1 9 00 023
Mar- 33613 1594 151 30685 113746 63236 29710 70452 23014 14896 1696 1223
94 6 6 49 1 2 54 817
Mar- 35206 1637 161 33535 128578 67555 32495 74243 25287 15475 1734 1302
95 9 0 11 5 1 93 075
Mar- 34862 1630 169 35502 149064 77394 34704 78683 28623 16727 1862 1396
96 6 7 43 2 6 44 975
Mar- 38488 1655 183 35699 165070 82904 36593 80158 30932 17762 2012 1508
97 6 3 19 8 7 41 378
Mar- 37344 1695 186 39201 160760 87342 39417 88553 33258 19842 2179 1573
98 6 9 34 0 3 48 263
Mar- 40003 1715 177 40309 166338 89534 42189 94109 35801 21390 2391 1678
99 0 9 03 4 2 23 410
Mar- 40966 1791 189 41594 173003 91110 44526 102007 38751 23355 2667 1786
00 0 6 39 4 0 07 526
Mar- 40717 1839 198 42589 186570 98001 45439 108362 41565 24304 2792 1864
01 6 9 28 0 8 39 301
Mar- 43347 1896 208 43335 195107 96696 46228 112692 45384 26073 2907 1972
02 5 4 10 7 7 15 606
Mar- 39820 1909 216 47168 209909 101776 48423 121650 49669 28155 3021 2048
03 6 0 71 1 0 53 287
Mar- 44136 1887 224 48626 224919 107444 50735 136224 55637 29725 3185 2222
04 0 2 44 0 0 14 758
Mar- 44164 1927 219 52591 245343 115772 54745 158212 61584 32308 3402 2388
05 7 6 87 9 0 66 768
Mar- 46798 1953 235 55164 268100 125742 57513 183868 69039 35988 3643 2616
06 4 6 94 9 8 13 101
Mar- 48701 2000 243 60038 299329 140864 60544 205543 77889 40947 3851 2871
07 0 5 00 5 2 18 118
Mar- 51127 2043 254 61999 321985 154318 63730 226325 87539 45758 4112 3129
08 4 2 16 8 4 56 717
Page |7

Mar- 64244 65899 242577 95458 49335 4649 2285


09 9 6 26 591

Growth in various sectors: -


The growth in various sectors in put over graphs. And form the graphs the growth of different sectors can be
easily identified. However we have done a comparative analysis of growth in various sectors. That is
discussed later.

Agricultural Sector Forestry & logging


600000 25000
500000 20000
400000 15000
300000
200000 10000
100000 5000
0 0 Jan/90

Jan/92

Jan/94

Jan/96

Jan/98

Jan/00

Jan/02

Jan/04

Jan/06

Jan/08
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08

Fishing Mining & quarrying


30000 80000
25000
60000
20000
15000 40000
10000
20000
5000
0 0
Jan/90

Jan/92

Jan/94

Jan/96

Jan/98

Jan/00

Jan/02

Jan/04

Jan/06

Jan/08

Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Page |8

Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water


(Registered & Unregistered)
supply
400000
70000
300000
60000
200000
50000
100000 40000
0 30000
Jan/90

Jan/92

Jan/94

Jan/96

Jan/98

Jan/00

Jan/02

Jan/04

Jan/06

Jan/08
20000
10000
0

Jan/90

Jan/92

Jan/94

Jan/96

Jan/98

Jan/00

Jan/02

Jan/04

Jan/06

Jan/08
Manufacturing registered
Manufacturing unregistered

Construction Trade, hotel, transport &


300000 comm.
250000
1200000
200000 1000000
150000 800000
600000
100000
400000
50000 200000
0 0
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08

Finance, insurance, real estate Social & personal services


and business services 500000
600000
400000
500000
400000 300000
300000 200000
200000
100000
100000
0 0
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Page |9

Comparative Growth Analysis of various sectors: -

In the previous section the growth of each individual sector was shown however it was not possible form
that section to understand the comparative growth of various sectors. This comparative growth of various
sectors is discussed here and are shown on graphical representation.

Sector Production Production Avg. Total


2008 1990 Growth growth
(Rs. Core) (Rs. Core) rate yearly (%)
(%)
Agriculture 511274 298720 3.74 71.15
Forestry & logging 20432 16499 1.25 23.84
Fishing 25416 11554 6.31 119.98
Mining & quarrying 61999 26266 7.16 136.04
Manufacturing registered 321985 96057 12.38 235.20
Manufacturing unregistered 154318 58543 8.61 163.60
Electricity, gas & water supply 63730 22082 9.93 188.61
Construction 226325 59336 14.81 281.43
Trade, hotel, transport & comm. 875398 189043 19.11 363.07
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 457584 107962 17.04 323.84
Social & personal services 411256 143119 9.86 187.35
P a g e | 10

Avg. Growth rate yearly (%) Total growth 90-09 (%)


25.00
400.00

20.00 350.00
300.00
15.00 250.00
200.00
10.00
150.00
100.00
5.00
50.00
0.00 0.00
P a g e | 11

Comparative Growth Picture


1000000
Agriculture
900000
Forestry & logging
800000

700000 Fishing

600000
Production

Mining & quarrying


500000
Manufacturing registered
400000

300000 Manufacturing unregistered

200000 Electricity, gas & water supply


100000
Construction
0
Trade, hotel, transport & comm.

Form the above analysis we get a very clear picture of the growth rate comparative in various sectors. As we
can see the Hotel, Comm. sector achieved the maximum growth. Over the last 20 years the comm. sector
achieved a growth of 363.07 %. And the least growth is achieved by forestry and logging sector only 23.84 %
and on average yearly basis 1.25%.

Correlation analysis: -

If we analysis the change of every individual sector with the change in the overall GDP. Then we can find out
a correlation between the GDP and every individual sector. The further analysis of this correlation shows
that all the sectors are having correlation of nearly equal to 1.

It means that there is a strong positive relationship between the GDP and the production of every sector.
Thought some of the sectors do not contribute very much to the proportion of GDP but the change with the
change of GDP is very significant.
P a g e | 12

Sector Correlation with GDP


Agriculture 0.974985798
Forestry & logging 0.959794682
Fishing 0.956385003
Mining & quarrying 0.995154935
Manufacturing registered 0.9962302
Manufacturing unregistered 0.994720885
Electricity, gas & water supply 0.98218774
Construction 0.985274669
Trade, hotel, transport & comm. 0.997350757
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 0.998748627
Social & personal services 0.991205803

Corelation with GDP


1.01
1
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93

Variance analysis: -

Now in the history of economy every sector does not perform well at every time. In practice for every sector
a lot of variation and fluctuation takes place in terms of annual production. To get an idea over it that is
which sector perform constantly and which sector’s production vary too much we do a variance analysis. In
this we have calculated the Standard Deviation of every sectors production over the last 20 years and found
out the variation result.
P a g e | 13

Sector SD
Agriculture 60927.65
Forestry & logging 1467.74
Fishing 4108.95
Mining & quarrying 10420.77
Manufacturing registered 66512.39
Manufacturing unregistered 27493.57
Electricity, gas & water supply 12354.62
Construction 48456.56
Trade, hotel, transport & comm. 201302.53
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 98921.99
Social & personal services 84033.31

Standard Deviation
Social & personal services
Finance, insurance, real estate and business …
Trade, hotel, transport & comm.
Construction
Electricity, gas & water supply
Manufacturing unregistered
Manufacturing registered
Mining & quarrying
Fishing
Forestry & logging
Agriculture

0.00 50000.00 100000.00 150000.00 200000.00 250000.00

The above analysis shows that that the Trade, Hotel, Transport & Comm. Sector is the most fluctuating
sector in terms of production. The fluctuation of production of this sector is almost double than that of most
of the other sectors.

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