Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2009
ABHIJIT SAMANTA
Data taken up to March 2009.
Source of Data: Business Beacon (CMIE, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)
METHODOLOGY: -
Required data is collected from CMIE Business Beacon. The calculation of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is
done on two approaches
The required calculations are done on Microsoft Excel and then copied on MS Word. In representing the
growth, variations and the relationship with factors are represented on 2 dimensional graphs and analysis is
done.
The period used for GDP calculation is 1990-2009, last 20 years. In some of the calculations data up to 2008
is taken because of the non availability of 2009 data.
In this method first we find out various categories of final expenditure which are: -
Then we add up all the individual gross expenditure to find out the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
Net export of goods and services = Export of goods and services – Import of goods and services.
GDP = C+ G + I + N Ex.
Page |3
The year to year growth analysis of GDP (in next page) shows that in the last 20 years period maximum
growth in GDP occurred in 2000 with 12.54%. The minimum growth occurred in 1992 and there were no
negative growth in the last 20 years of period.
However a clearer picture of GDP year to year growth is given with the application of a chart on the next
page.
Page |4
Year Growth
(%)
Mar-90 -
Mar-91 6.20 GDP Growth (%)
Mar-92 0.00 14.00
Mar-93 3.78 12.00
Mar-94 2.53 10.00
Mar-95 6.45 8.00
Mar-96 9.15 6.00 Growth
Mar-97 4.12 4.00 (%) -
Mar-98 4.79 2.00
0.00
Mar-99 5.28
-2.00
Mar-00 12.54
Mar-01 2.54
Mar-02 5.34
Mar-03 5.66
Mar-04 6.51
Mar-05 10.63
Mar-06 6.73
Mar-07 7.60
Mar-08 9.67
Mar-09 4.89
GDP GROWTH
overall (exact figure)
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
GDP
2000000
1500000
1000000 GDP
500000
0
Jan/90
Jan/91
Jan/92
Jan/93
Jan/94
Jan/95
Jan/96
Jan/97
Jan/98
Jan/99
Jan/00
Jan/01
Jan/02
Jan/03
Jan/04
Jan/05
Jan/06
Jan/07
Jan/08
Jan/09
YEAR
Page |5
60%
Gross Capital Investment
40% (I )
20% (Rs. Crore)
Government final Consumption Expenditure
0%
(G )
(Rs. Crore)
Private final Consumption Expenditure
(C )
(Rs. Crore)
The above picture shows the proportion of various components in GDP. We can see that Private final
consumption expenditure contributes a maximum proportion in GDP almost 63% and Net export contributes
a very minimum portion.
In this approach we found out the final production of goods and services from various sectors and then we
sum up them to find out the GDP. The various sectors here are Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining etc.
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Page |8
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
20000
10000
0
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Manufacturing registered
Manufacturing unregistered
In the previous section the growth of each individual sector was shown however it was not possible form
that section to understand the comparative growth of various sectors. This comparative growth of various
sectors is discussed here and are shown on graphical representation.
20.00 350.00
300.00
15.00 250.00
200.00
10.00
150.00
100.00
5.00
50.00
0.00 0.00
P a g e | 11
700000 Fishing
600000
Production
Form the above analysis we get a very clear picture of the growth rate comparative in various sectors. As we
can see the Hotel, Comm. sector achieved the maximum growth. Over the last 20 years the comm. sector
achieved a growth of 363.07 %. And the least growth is achieved by forestry and logging sector only 23.84 %
and on average yearly basis 1.25%.
Correlation analysis: -
If we analysis the change of every individual sector with the change in the overall GDP. Then we can find out
a correlation between the GDP and every individual sector. The further analysis of this correlation shows
that all the sectors are having correlation of nearly equal to 1.
It means that there is a strong positive relationship between the GDP and the production of every sector.
Thought some of the sectors do not contribute very much to the proportion of GDP but the change with the
change of GDP is very significant.
P a g e | 12
Variance analysis: -
Now in the history of economy every sector does not perform well at every time. In practice for every sector
a lot of variation and fluctuation takes place in terms of annual production. To get an idea over it that is
which sector perform constantly and which sector’s production vary too much we do a variance analysis. In
this we have calculated the Standard Deviation of every sectors production over the last 20 years and found
out the variation result.
P a g e | 13
Sector SD
Agriculture 60927.65
Forestry & logging 1467.74
Fishing 4108.95
Mining & quarrying 10420.77
Manufacturing registered 66512.39
Manufacturing unregistered 27493.57
Electricity, gas & water supply 12354.62
Construction 48456.56
Trade, hotel, transport & comm. 201302.53
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 98921.99
Social & personal services 84033.31
Standard Deviation
Social & personal services
Finance, insurance, real estate and business …
Trade, hotel, transport & comm.
Construction
Electricity, gas & water supply
Manufacturing unregistered
Manufacturing registered
Mining & quarrying
Fishing
Forestry & logging
Agriculture
The above analysis shows that that the Trade, Hotel, Transport & Comm. Sector is the most fluctuating
sector in terms of production. The fluctuation of production of this sector is almost double than that of most
of the other sectors.