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o 171636Z DEC 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4668
AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 036091

DEPT FOR D, P, CIE, sip, HA, EUR/SOV, EUR/EEY

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PHUM, PARM, RO, UR
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE IN TRANS-DNIESTER: COMPLICATIONS
FOR MOLDOVAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP

REFS: A) MOSCOW 36059; B) MOSCOW 35829

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

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SUMMARY

2. TENSIONS ARE HIGH IN THE TRANS-DNIESTER CITY OF

DUBOSSARY FOLLOWING THE DECEMBER 13 FlREFIGHT BETWEEN
MOLDOVAN AND TRANS-DNIESTER FORCES IN WHICH SEVEN
PERSONS WERE KILLED AND A DOZEN WOUNDED. FOLLOWING
TALKS BETWEEN MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SNEGUR AND
TRANS-DNIESTER "PRESIDENT" SMIRNOV, A JOINT
COMMISSION HAS NEGOTIATED A PULLBACK OF OPPOSING
ARMED GROUPS. SNEGUR HAS REPEATED EARLIER STATEMENTS
THAT ONLY PEACEFUL NEGOTIATIONS CAN SOLVE THE

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE

REVIEW AUTHORITY: ROBERT 0 HOMME
DATE/CASE ID: 17 SEP 2009 200802198 UNCLASSIFIED
TRANS-DNIESTER DISPUTE. MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS CLAIM THE
FIGHTING WAS AN INTENTIONAL PROVOCATION BY THE UNCLASSIFIED
TRANS-DNIESTER LEADERSHIP DESIGNED TO SABOTAGE
IMPENDING RUSSIAN RECOGNITION OF MOLDOVAN
INDEPENDENCE. RUSSIAN MEDIA COVERAGE HAS FAVORED THE
TRANS-DNIESTER AND RESULTED IN SMALL DEMONSTRATIONS
IN MOSCOW. WHILE THE FIGHTING WAS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF INCREASINGLY ASSERTIVE POLICIES ON BOTH SIDES, IT
ILLUSTRATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT RUSSIAN-MOLDOVAN
CONFLICT. END SUMMARY.

CONTROVERSY SPILLS OVER INTO RUSSIA

3 . THE DECEMBER 13 FlREFIGHT BETWEEN MOLDOVAN AND

TRANS-DNIESTER ~D UNITS IN THE TRANS-DNIESTER CITY
OF DUBOSSARY (REF B - PARA 14) HAS RAISED TENSIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOLDOVA AND THE BREAKAWAY
TRANS-DNIESTER "REPUBLIC" AND HAS HAD SOME SPILLOVER,
FOR THE FIRST TIMm, IN RUSSIA ITSELF. WHILE THERE
ARE CONFLICTING ACCOUNTS OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
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AND WHO STARTED THE FIRING, THE RESULT HAS BEEN
INCREASED POLICE/MILITARY PRESENCE IN BOTH MOLDOVAN
AND TRANS-DNIESTER-CONTROLLED AREAS IN THE DUBOSSARY
REGION AND CALLS FROM SOME IN THE RUSSIAN REPUBLIC
FOR SUPPORT OF "THEIR RUSSIAN BROTHERS."

MOLDOVAN OMON FORCES TO BLAME?

Q

4. THE FIGHTING ITSELF NOW APPEARS TO HAVE CLAIMED

SEVEN LIVES (FOUR MOLDOVAN POLICE AND THREE
TRANS-DNIESTER POLICE/MILITIA), NOT THE THIRTEEN
EARLIER REPORTED, WHILE THERE ARE OVER A DOZEN
WOUNDED, INCLUDING CIVILIANS. ACCORDING TO THE
TRANS-DNIESTER VERSION OF EVENTS, WHICH HAS RECEIVED
WIDE PLAY ON MOSCOW TELEVISION NEWS, THE EVENTS BEGAN
WHEN A DETACHMENT OF MOLDOVAN OMON FORCES ATTEMPTED
TO FORCE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE DNIESTER BRIDGE ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF DUBOSSARY IN ORDER TO TAKE CONTROL OF
SEVERAL TRANS-DNIESTER MILITIA CHECKPOINTS. THE
TRANS-DNIESTER AUTHORITIES CLAIM THIS WAS A PRELUDE
TO AN ATTEMPT TO OCCUPY THE ENTIRE DUBOSSARY AREA AND
THEREBY SPLIT THE TRANS-DNIESTER "REPUBLIC" IN TWO.

UNCLASSIFIED
MOLDOVANS SAY A TRANS-DNIESTER PROVOCATION ...
UNCLASSIFIED
5. ACCOEDING TO THE MOLDOVANS, MOLDOVAN POLICE WERE
ATTEMPTING TO REACH A SERIES OF POLICE POSTS, MANNED
BY MOLDOVAN POLICE, WHO WERE UNDER PRESSURE FROM
TRANS-DNIESTER FORCES TO ABANDON THEIR POSTS TO
TRANS-DNIESTER "POLICE." (DUBOSSARY ITSELF IS
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LARGELY ETHNIC RUSSIAN, WHILE THE OUTLYING VILLAGES
ARE LARGELY ETHNIC-MOLDOVAN. THEREFORE SOME POLICE
POSTS ARE MANNED BY MOLDOVAN POLICE AND OTHERS BY
TRANS-DNIESTER POLICE.) MOLDOVAN AUTHORITIES CHARGE
THE FIREFIGHT WAS A PLANNED PROVOCATION OF THE
TRANS-DNIESTER LEADERSHIP, WITH THE GOAL OF
SABOTAGING MOLDOVAN ATTEMPTS TO SECURE RUSSIAN
RECOGNITION OF MOLDOVA.

TO STOP RUSSIAN RECOGNITION OF MOLDOVA

6. AT THE TIME OF THE FIGHTING, MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT

MIRCEA SNEGUR WAS IN THE MIDST OF A WHIRLWIND
THREE-REPUBLIC TRIP (RUSSIA, BELARUS', AND UKRAINE --
THE FIGHTING FORCED HIM TO RETURN TO MOLDOVA WITHOUT
VISITING KIEV) TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE MOLDOVAN
MEMBERSHIP
IN THE NEW COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT
STATES. MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE MOLDOVANS,
PRESIDENT YEL'TSIN REPORTEDLY ASSURED SNEGUR THAT
RUSSIA WOULD SOON RECOGNIZE MOLDOVA AS AN INDEPENDENT
STATE, ONE OF MOLDOVA'S PRIMARY POLITICAL GOALS.
MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS TOLD POLOFF YEL'TSIN PROMISED TO
PUSH FOR RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARY RATIFICATION OF A
TREATY OF MUTUAL RECOGNITION WHICH HAS BEEN

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------------------B83426 171637Z /38
o 1716362 DEC 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4669
AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 MOSCOW 036091

DEPT FOR D, P, C/E, S/P, HA, EUR/SOV, EUR/EEY

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PHUM, PARM, RO, UR
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE IN TRANS-DNIESTER: COMPLICATIONS
FOR MOLDOVAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP

LANGUISHING IN COMMITTEE FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. IN

MINSK, ACCORDING TO THE MOLDOVANS, BELORUSSIAN
OFFICIALS WERE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE OF MOLDOVAN
INDEPENDENCE AND MOLDOVAN MEMBERSHIP IN THE NEW
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COMMONWEALTH. (THE MOLDOVANS HAD EXPECTED THE KIEV
VISIT TO BE THE MOST DIFFICULT, DUE TO UKRAINIAN
SENSITIVITY ABOUT CALLS FROM NATIONALIST GROUPS IN
MOLDOVA AND ROMANIA FOR THE RETURN TO MOLDOVA OF
SOUTHERN BESSARABIA AND NORTHERN BUKOVINA.)

7. MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS ARE CONVINCED THAT THE

ETHNIC-RUSSIAN TRANS-DNIESTER LEADERSHIP HAS CLOSE
TIES TO ELEMENTS IN THE RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP IN MOSCOW

UNCLASSIFIED
AND THEREFORE KNEW OF YEL'TSIN'S PROMISE TO WORK FOR UNCLASSIFIED
RATIFICATION OF THE MtJTUAL RECOGNITION TREATY. THEY
CONTEND THAT THE FIREFIGHT WAS AN ATTEMPT TO CREATE A
DRAMATIC ETHNIC CONFRONTATION BETWEEN RUSSIANS AND
MOLDOVANS, THEREBY INFLAMING RUSSIAN PUBLIC OPINION
AND FORCING YEL'TSIN TO ABANDON, OR AT LEAST DELAY,
PLANS TO RECOGNIZE MOLDOVA.

RUSSIAN ~DIA COVERAGE

8. FOR THE MOST PART THE RUSSIAN MEDIA HAS PORTRAYED

THE FIREFIGHT AS BEING MOLDOVA'S FAULT. THE DECEMBER
13 RUSSIAN EVENING TELEVISION NEWS, VESTI, FEATURED A
BACKGROUND EXPLANATION OF ETHNIC-RUSSIAN FEARS OF
MOLDOVAN UNIFICATION WITH ROMANIA AND RESULTING
DENIALS OF ETHNIC-RUSSIAN LANGUAGE AND CULTURAL
RIGHTS (TO SOME EXTENT AN UNDERSTANDABLE FEAR, GIVEN
THE RATHER RASH COMlxlEN,TS OF SOME OF THE MORE
NATIONALIST MEMBERS OF THE MOLDOVAN
GOVERNMENT, MOST NOW OUT OF OFFICE). ALSO SHOWN WAS
AN INTERVIEW WITH THE CHAIRMAN OF THE TRANS-DNIESTER
SUPREME SOVIET, GEORGIY MARACUTA, IN WHICH HE SET
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FORTH THE TRANS-DNIESTER VERSION OF EVENTS. ALTHOUGH
LATER REPORTS WERE MORE BALANCED, TASS ALSO INITIALLY
TENDED TO PROVIDE THE TRANS-DNIESTER VERSION OF
EVENTS, INCLUDING REFERENCES TO WEAPONS OF
"ROMANIAN-ORIGIN" ALLEGEDLY USED BY THE MOLDOVAN
POLICE.

9. DURING THE WEEKEND THERE WERE ANTI-MOLDOVAN

RALLIES OUTSIDE THE OFFICES OF THE MOLDOVAN
REPUBLIC'S PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE IN MOSCOW. WHILE
NUMBERING ONLY ONE OR TWO HUNDRED, THE PARTICIPANTS
RECEIVED SYMPATHETIC TELEVISION COVERAGE, WITH
CLOSE-UPS OF OLD WOMEN HOLDING SIGNS SAYING "HANDS
OFF OUR RUSSIAN BROTHERS," AND OTHERS WAVING LARGE
RED BANNERS. THE COVERAGE DID NOT INCLUDE STATEMENTS
BY MOLDOVAN REPRESENTATIVES OR EXPLANATIONS OF THE
MOLDOVAN VERSION OF EVENTS.

MOLDOVAN FEARS

10. MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS CLAIM THE TRANS-DNIESTER

"GOVERNMENT" IS SEEKING, AND OBTAINING, VOLUNTEERS

UNCLASSIFIED
FROM RUSSIA TO JOIN THEIR MILITIA IN RESPONSE TO
RUSSIAN ~DIA COVERAGE OF THE DUBOSSARY FIGHTING.
AS UNCLASSIFIED
DESCRIBED IN REF B, MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS ARE VERY
WORRIED ABOUT ASSISTANCE ALLEGEDLY BEING PROVIDED TO
THE TRANS-DNIESTER MILITIA BY REGULAR SOVIET FORCES
STATIONED IN THE REGION, AS WELL AS BY THE FACT THAT
THE NEW TRANS-DNIESTER "MINISTER OF DEFENSE," GENERAL
G.I. YAKOVLEV, CONTINUES TO HOLD HIS POSITION AS
COMMANDER OF THE SOVIET FOURTEENTH ARMY,
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HEADQUARTERED IN TlRASPOL, THE "CAPITAL" OF THE
TRANS-DNIESTER "REPUBLIC." HOWEVER, A SPOKESMAN FOR
THE ODESSA SOVIET MILITARY DISTRICT HEADQUARTERS, TO
WHICH THE FOURTEENTH ARMY IS SUBORDINATE, DENIED
DECEMBER 16 THAT SOVIET FORCES HAVE GIVEN ANY SUPPORT
TO THE TRANS-DNIESTER.

UNEASY CALM IN DUBOSSARY

11. MEANWHILE, IN DUBOSSARY AN UNEASY CALM PREVAILS,

DESPITE THE KILLING OF ONE MOLDOVAN
POLICEMAN DECEMBER 14 BY AN UNIDENTIFIED GUNMAN. ON
DECEMBER 15. PRESIDENT SNEGUR MET IN KISHINEV WITH
TRANS-DNIESTER "PRESIDENT" IGOR' SMIRNOV, AND THE TWO
SIDES AGREED TO PULL THEIR FORCES BACK FROM POSITIONS

WHERE THE DANGER OF CONFRONTATION WAS HIGH. A JOINT

COMMISSION WAS SET UP TO ORGANIZE THE PULLBACK AND TO
FIND WAYS TO LOWER TENSIONS. SNEGUR REPEATED EARLIER
STATEMENTS THAT ANY SOLUTION TO THE DISPUTE BETWEEN
THE TWO REGIONS MUST BE ACHIEVED PEACEFULLY, THROUGH
NEGOTIATIONS. ON DECEMBER 16 THE OPPOSING FORCES
PULLED BACK FROM THEIR POSITIONS; THE COMMISSION IS
CONTINUING TO MEET TO DISCUSS "OTHER ISSUES. ItTHE

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------------------B8343F 171638Z /38
o 171636Z DEC 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4670
AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 MOSCOW 036091

DEPT FOR D, P, C/E, S/P, HA, EUR/SOV, EUR/EEY

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PHUM, PARM, RO, UR
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE IN TRANS-DNIESTER: COMPLICATIONS
. FOR MOLDOVAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP

COMMISSION HAS INVITED OBSERVERS FROM RUSSIA,

BELARUS' , AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS TO
THE AREA TO HELP MONITOR THE SITUATION.

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COMMENT

12. THE FlREFIGHT IN DUBOSSARY IS THE LATEST IN A

SERIES OF CONFRONTATIONS IN THAT CITY. THE DUBOSSARY
AREA HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN A FLASHPOINT IN THE
TRANS-DNIESTER BECAUSE ITS POPULATION IS ALMOST
EQUALLY ETHNIC-RUSSIAN AND ETHNIC-MOLDOVAN, MAKING
THE CHANCES OF CONFRONTATION HIGHER THAN IN AREAS

UNCLASSIFIED
 I ,

PREDOMIN~TLY RUSSIAN. IN ADDITION TO THE POPULATION

MIX, DUB~SSARY IS LOCATED GEOGRAPHICALLY IN THE UNCLASSIFIED
MIDDLE OF THE SECESSIONIST TRANS-DNIESTER "REPUBLIC";
IT HAS TEEREFORE TAKEN ON A STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE
FOR BOTH SIDES. SEVERAL RUSSIAN NEWS ACCOUNTS HAVE
NOTED TaAT MOLDOVAN CONTROL OF DUBOSSARY WOULD SPLIT
THE TRANS-DNIESTER REGION IN TWO.

13. THE DECEMBER 13 FIGHTING, COMING ALMOST

IMMEDIATELY AFTER ELECTIONS IN BOTH THE
TRANS-DN IESTER AND MOLDOVA, MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN THE
RESULT OF A NEW ASSERTIVENESS ON THE PART OF THE
LEADERSHIPS OF BOTH AREAS, ANXIOUS TO EXERCISE THEIR
NEW MANDATES. ACCORDNG TO PRESS REPORTS AND MOLDOVAN
OFFICIALS, THE TRANS-DNIESTER POLICE/MILITIA HAVE
BEEN INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE SINCE THE TRANS-DNIESTER
ELECTION AND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM DECEMBER 1,
ATTEMPTING TO FORCE POLICE LOYAL TO THE MOLDOVAN
GOVERNMENT TO EITHER RENOUNCE THAT LOYALTY OR ABANDON
THEIR POSTS TO TRANS-DNIESTER FORCES. AT THE SAME
TIME, SINCE THE DECEMBER 8 MOLDOVAN ELECTION,
MOLDOVAN AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN MORE ASSERTIVE IN
THEIR SUPPORT OF MOLDOVANS IN TRANS-DNIESTER AND OF
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THE BESIEGED MOLDOVAN POLICE UNITS IN THE DUBOSSARY
AREA. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT
TRANS-DNIESTER LEADERS INDEED PLANNED THE FIGHT TO
SABOTAGE RUSSIAN RECOGNITION, IT MAY ALSO BE THAT IT
WAS SIMPLY A CASE OF TWO INCREASINGLY ASSERTIVE
FORCES FINALLY COLLIDING, WITH BOTH SIDES EQUALLY AT
FAULT. END COMMENT.
STRAUSS

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