LEHRSTUHL FÜR

Simulation Project Schedule

M
Simulation using Proxels

Why should we do that? Procedure

Current project scheduling techniques yield only ! create schedule with MS-Project,
one single finishing date that changes as the which contains single task durations as
project progresses. statistical distributions

A statistical statement that remains the same task A task B task D

or improves as the project progresses is a more
reliable and expressive result. This can be task C
obtained by specifying the task durations as
statistical distributions, rather than roughly ! build state space diagram of the
estimated scalar values.
schedule, representing the states by the
tasks already finished
done A,B
started done A done B,C done D
Result done A,C

Statistical distributions contain more information ! simulate schedule using proxels,

than single valued results. creating the proxel tree that tracks the
probabilities of the schedule states
This yields more realistic and useful project through time
duration statements, since deviations in the task
(started;1) t=0
durations are taken into account.
(started;1-p1) (done A;p1) t=1dt

(started;*) (done A;*) (done A,B;*) (done A,C;*) t=2dt

Proxels
! calculate statistics for the total
The proxel method follows all possible project duration distribution and the
paths the system can take as it evolves intermediate steps of the schedule
through time.
Discrete stochastic models can be simulated and
analyzed in a deterministic and algorithmic way.
started
The method enumerates all possible system done A
states at equally spaced discrete points in time, done A,B
done A,C
creating a discrete-time Markov chain. done B,C
finished
The simulation then tracks the probability flow (done D)

through all of the Markov chain states.

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