Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Pakistan Daily Notes
DOL: Reiterate buy post strong 2QFY11 results
22 February 2011
DOL announced first‐ever quarterly profit of PRs0.8/sh for 2QFY11E, better than
our estimates of PRs0.2/sh, on account of strong margins and tax reversals.
Muhammad Saqib Sajjad
We believe sustained H2O2 prices and stable gas prices will help DOL post Saqib.sajjad@kasb.com
strong 2H earnings of PRs1.0/sh. KASB Securities Limited
Having said that, QoQ lower production in 3QFY11E due to planned +92 21 111 222 000
maintenance shut‐down could contract earnings for the period 3Q.
Current Price PRs7.05
We raise FY11E EPS from PRs0.8 to PRs1.5, PO from PRs12 to PRs13 and Price Objective PRs13.0
reiterate Buy. DOL trades at an attractive FY12E P/E of 4.8x and offers 84%
upside to our PO. KATS DOL
All‐time high prices and tax debit drive first‐ever quarterly profits Reuters DOL.KA
DOL (Descon Oxychem Limited) announced first‐ever quarterly profit of PRs0.8/sh for 2QFY11E, Bloomberg DOL PA
better than our estimates of PRs0.2/sh, on account of higher margins and tax reversals. Top‐line
improved by 40% QoQ as (1) the company managed to operate its plant at optimum capacity Shares Outstanding
utilization due to uninterrupted gas supply following installation of captive gas pipeline and (2) 102mn
H2O2 (Hydrogen Peroxide) prices touched all‐time high of PRs70/kg in the domestic market.
Meanwhile, operating efficiencies further helped in improving gross margins by 14ppt QoQ to 3m average daily volume
39%. DOL’s overheads remain under control after the management decision to share head office 431,300
costs at group level. While pre‐tax earnings were slightly above our forecasts, tax debit of
PRs29mn (PRs0.28/sh) in 2QFY11 further boosted the bottom‐line. 12‐month High/Low
9.3/3.51
PRs mn 1QFY11 2QFY11 QoQ YoY 1HFY11 YoY
Net Sales 295 411 39.7% 108.1% 706 77.1%
Stock Performance
Gross Income 74 162 120.0% N/M 235 N/M
1M 3M 12M
Operating Income 46 136 197.0% N/M 181 N/M
Financial charges 86 88 3.0% 33.5% 174 22.2% Absolute% ‐15.3 ‐11.8 ‐20.2
Pre‐tax (39) 51 N/M N/M 12 N/M Rel Index ‐11.5 ‐18.5 ‐40.4
Taxes 3 (29) N/M N/M (26) N/M ‐1.3 ‐0.9 ‐1.8
Abs. (PRs)
Net Income (42) 81 N/M N/M 39 N/M
EPS (0.4) 0.8 N/M N/M 0.4 N/M
Refer to important disclosures on page 3 page1
morning shout
Raise FY11‐12E EPS estimates and PO; reiterate Buy
Adjusting for stronger than expected 2Q earnings and stable gas prices, we raise FY11E EPS KSE‐100 Intra‐day Movement
from PRs0.8/sh to PRs1.5/sh and FY12‐13E EPS by 8‐10%. Likewise, we raise our PO from
PRs12/sh to PRs13/sh and reiterate Buy. DOL is trading at an attractive FY12E P/E of 4.8x and
12117
offers 84% upside to our PO. High 12106.04
12086
12055
12024
Morning News
11993
` FBR to address investors’ concerns over CGT rules (Dawn) 11962
The FBR has assured KSE to address investors’ concerns over the new rules for CGT (Capital
11931
Low 11944.77
Gains Tax). The concerns includes, among others, the definition of tax swap sales whereby an
11900
investor buying shares in the same sector within 1 month of sale will come under the 9:30 AM 11:20 AM 1:10 PM 3:00 PM
definition and losses booked under such transaction will not be admissible for capital gains
tax purposes. Both sides have agreed to work on modalities and issue amendments to
improve the framework.
Source: KSE
Index Data & Volume Leaders
Technical View Vol.
Aiyaz M. Hassan Close % Chg US$mn
KSE30 11,857.84 2.08% 20.40
aiyaz.hassan@kasb.com KSE100 11,964.68 ‐0.64% 21.17
KSE All
KSE‐100: Closing below trendline and 12k mark is bearish Share 8,306.64 ‐0.60% 23.03
NML 153.92 0.41% 3.68
The index registered a lower high and a lower low to close below 12,000 points as well as its ENGRO 217.24 ‐0.95% 2.72
support trendline. This is bearish and suggests that the pressure is likely to continue. FFC 19.00 1.44% 1.30
POL 200.10 ‐0.72% 1.27
PPL 62.3 ‐0.86% 1.23
The Stochastic Oscillator has shown weakness and is now on the verge of generating a sell
signal while the RSI has started to show weakness once again. Source: KSE
KSE‐100: Top Gainers & Losers
We have now turned bearish on the overall market and recommend selling on strength.
ULEVER
DAWH
MDTL
SCBPL
INIL
PKGS
INDU
KOHE
BATA
AKBL
‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
Source: KSE
page2
morning shout
World Markets and Commodity Prices
International Equity Markets
Asian Markets (Closing Rates) European Markets (Last Trading Session’s Rates)
Price Abs. Chg. % Chg. Price Abs. Chg. % Chg.
All Ordinaries 4,990.90 ‐35.20 ‐0.70 ATX 2,923.55 ‐54.91 ‐1.84
Shanghai Composite 2,932.76 32.97 1.14 BEL‐20 2,715.66 ‐39.37 ‐1.43
Hang Seng 23,485.42 ‐109.82 ‐0.47 CAC 40 4,097.41 ‐59.73 ‐1.44
BSE 30 18,438.31 226.79 1.25 DAX 7,321.81 ‐105.00 ‐1.41
Jakarta Composite 3,497.64 ‐3.86 ‐0.11 AEX General 370.92 ‐3.27 ‐0.87
KLSE Composite 1,525.85 8.29 0.55 Swiss Market 6,683.87 ‐33.38 ‐0.50
Nikkei 225 10,857.53 14.73 0.14 FTSE 100 6,014.80 ‐68.19 ‐1.12
NZSE 50 3,381.93 ‐30.77 ‐0.90 American Markets
Straits Times 3,070.60 ‐16.32 ‐0.53 Dow Jones Ind. Average (18th Feb) 12,391.25 73.11 0.59
Seoul Composite 2,005.30 ‐7.84 ‐0.39 NASDAQ Composite (18th Feb) 2,833.95 2.37 0.08
Taiwan Weighted 8,839.22 ‐4.62 ‐0.05 NASDAQ ‐100 (18th Feb) 2,392.47 ‐5.10 ‐0.21
KSE‐100 Index 11,944.82 ‐96.33 ‐0.80 S&P 500 Index, RTH (18th Feb) 1,343.01 2.58 0.19
Source: Bloomberg
Foreign Portfolio Investment in Equities
Country Day (US$mn) WTD (US$mn) MTD (US$mn) YTD (US$mn) YTD Net (US$mn) Date
Pakistan 1.4 1.4 10.1 73.2 222.0% 21‐02
India 54.1 162.0 ‐207.0 ‐1594.2 ‐528.9% 18‐02
Indonesia 34.7 34.7 342.9 55.8 509.9% 21‐02
Japan Na 2301.0 4719.9 12719.7 ‐36.6% 11‐02
Philippines 4.8 4.8 ‐42.8 ‐136.5 ‐220.3% 21‐02
South Korea 159.0 159.0 ‐2015.4 ‐1432.4 ‐235.9% 21‐02
Taiwan ‐49.3 ‐49.3 ‐2183.6 1255.2 233.5% 09‐02
Thailand 108.0 108.1 288.3 ‐644.4 ‐149.5% 21‐02
Vietnam 0.6 0.6 2.7 60.9 ‐14.1% 21‐02
Source: Bloomberg, NCCPL
Forex and Money Market snapshot
Commodity Prices
KASB Securities Limited, 5th Floor, Trade Centre, I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi
This report has been prepared by KASB Securities Ltd. and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is to be used or considered as an offer to sell or solicitation of
any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no
representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. From time to time KASB Securities Ltd. and any of its officers or directors may, to the extent
permitted by law, have a position, or otherwise be interested in any transaction, in any securities directly or indirectly subject of this report. This report is provided solely for the
information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report and the company accepts no responsibility
whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. In particular, the report takes no accounts of the investment objectives, financial
situation and particular need of individuals, who should seek further advice before making any investment. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for page 3
any purpose. The views expressed in this document are those of the KASB Securities & Economic Research Department and do not necessarily reflect those of KASB or its directors. KASB,
as a full‐service firm, has or may have business relationships, including investment‐banking relationships, with the companies in this report.