INDIA ECONOMIC SUMMIT 2010 14 NOVEMBER 2010

A SNAPSHOT OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY [ INFRASTRUCTURE:

CAPACITY CONCERNS]]

INDIA MOVES AT FULL THROTTLE

The recovery has taken firm root in 2010-11, despite macroeconomic concerns
THERE ARE SIGNS OF BOTTLENECKS EMERGING
IN CERTAIN SECTORS
STEEL OUTPUT
In mn tonne
CEMENT OUTPUT
In mn tonne
29.2 30.6 101.21
96.88

[ FINANCIAL SECTOR & MARKETS: SENTIMENTS BULLISH]]

IT HAS LARGELY BEEN ONE-WAY TRAFFIC ON THE BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE, BUT IN RECENT WEEKS THERE HAVE BEEN CONCERNS
OVER THE HIGH LEVEL OF FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT INFLOWS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE RUPEE
SENSEX Apr-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep
2009 2010 2009 2010
RISING GRAPH DRIVEN MAINLY BY FOREIGN INVESTORS
% CHANGE 4.79 % CHANGE 4.47
22000 CRUDE OIL TELECOM
In mn tonne SUBSCRIBERS (In mn)
20000
Apr-Aug 2009-10 WIRELINE 706.37
20156.89 Apr-Aug, 2010-11 WIRELESS
18000 670.60
494.07

90.11
78.04
16000 456.74

18.30
16.60
14000 37.33 35.77

12000 Aug Aug

Production Processing 2009 2010
% CHG WIRELINE WIRELESS TOTAL
10000 10.22 15.47 % CHG -4.18 46.82 42.97
9901.99
8000 PORT TRAFFIC AIR TRAFFIC
April 1, 2009 November 12, 2010 In million tonne PASSENGERS (In mn)
267.79 271.29 46.63
BANK CREDIT, DEPOSIT MONEY SUPPLY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE PORTFOLIO FLOWS MUTUAL FUND
GROWTH IN % YOY GROWTH IN % YOY RUPEE/DOLLAR (Inverted scale) SIX-CURRENCY INDEX NET FII INVESTMENT AAUM (` Crore)
(` Crore)
24 22 42 120 Equity Debt
22.29 111.73 Equity 112303.40
21.19 44.83
Deposit Debt 742100.88 713281.23 38.86
19060.20
44 87320.06
20 20 110 12206.39 413717 418001
18.70
21.20 46 75113.67 93243.20 Apr-Sep Apr-Sep
16 18 100 Apr-Sep Apr-Sep
17.10 2009 2010 2009 2010
48 169887 185484 % CHANGE 19.9
17.32 94.26 % CHANGE 1.23
12 16 90 Apr -Oct Apr -Oct Sep Sep Source: Indian Ports Association Source: AAI
50 Apr ‘09 Sep ‘10
Credit 2009 2010 2009 2010 RAILWAY TRAFFIC
50.35 *Provisional. Data since Jan 2010
8 14 *6-Currency Trade Based Weights EQUITY DEBT TOTAL EQUITY DEBT TOTAL FREIGHT (In Million Tonne) PASSENGERS (In mn)
Apr ‘09 Oct ‘10 Apr ‘09 Oct ‘10 52 Apr ‘09 Nov ‘12 *Base: 2008-09 (April-March) =100 % CHG 24.14 56.15 28.61 % CHG 9.18 1.04 -3.88
42.8 43.8 3.90
Source: RBI Source: SEBI Source: AMFI 3.68

[ SECTORAL VIEW: ALL-ROUND GAINS]]

THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR, INDUSTRY AND SERVICES ARE REGISTERING HEALTHY GROWTH THOUGH THERE ARE EXPECTATIONS OF DECELERATION
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR
FOREIGN TOURIST FLOWS AUTO SALES INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT FARM VIEW TRADE FLOWS Apr-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep
ARRIVALS FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS DOMESTIC INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (In mn tonne) APRIL-SEPTEMBER 2009 2010 2009 2010
* in million * in million dollars APR-OCT PRODUCTION (Growth in %) 2009-10 (4th adv est) Exports Imports % CHANGE 2.3 % CHANGE 6.00
2.27 6,154 2009 2010 29.38
2.10 % CHG 2009-10 2010-11 2010-11 (1st adv est) Trade deficit Source: Indian Railways
16.98

169

4,940 18 % GROWTH COAL PRODUCTION POWER GENERATION

6,754,133

33.57 16.50 8.20

76.06

In million tonne In bn units

67.34

37.77 15
5,220,399
1,359,510

114.57
99.54 9.14

324.91
1,017,836

101.66
38.51

194.9 Apr-Sep 2009

75.91 5.93

193.3
277.75

12
Vehicles 363,676

Cotton* 33.50 39.93

Comm. 263,963

Nine 15.66 10.28

Apr-Sep 2010
108.64
4.30 39.53
80.41

9 383 397
23.94
oilseeds 17.27

2009 2010
Pulses 6.00

6
Two-
Wheelers
Passenger
Vehicles

Apr-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep 4.40 EXPORT IMPORT TRADE

3
Rice
Cereals

Sugarcane

2009 2010 2009 2010 % DEFICIT

1.13 CHG 33.65 47.51 74.86 Apr-Sep Apr-Sep 41.4 41.4
% GROWTH 8.10 % GROWTH 24.6 0 2009 2010
Jul
Jun

Aug
Sep
May
Apr

Value in $ bn
Source: Ministry of Tourism Source: Ministry of Tourism (Cars, UVs & MPVs); Source: SIAM *in million bales Source: Commerce dept % CHANGE 0.9 Generation Power Deficit

[ MACROECONOMY: FUNDAMENTALS SHOW GROWTH DYNAMICS]]

THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY HAS HELPED IMPROVE THE FISCAL SITUATION BUT IT HAS RAISED CONCERNS FOR POLICY MAKERS
WHEN IT COMES TO MANAGING THE EXTERNAL SECTOR AND INFLATION
FDI INFLOW CURRENT ACCOUNT GDP GROWTH TAX COLLECTIONS EXPENDITURE FISCAL DEFICIT INFLATION
In $ bn DEFICIT IN APR-JUN ($ bn) In % In ` cr AMOUNT In ` cr In ` cr WPI-BASED In %
13.56 13.73 Agriculture, Forestry 1.9 2009-10 Q1 Direct Taxes 197,775
537,977 12
and Fishing 2.8 2010-11 Q1 Indirect Taxes
8.2 332,444 10
Mining and quarrying
8.9
3.8 150,686
8.89 Manufacturing 256,978 133,252 8
12.4 8.62
Electricity, Gas 6.6 104,353 6
and water supply 6.6
4.6 181,758 448,848
Construction 7.5 152,625 4
4.45 0.9
Trade, Hotels, Transport 5.5
and Communication 12.2 2
Financial, Real estate 11.8
and other services 8 Apr -Sep Apr -Sep
0
Apr-Aug Apr-Aug Community, Social 7.6 2009 2010 Apr -Sep Apr -Sep Apr -Sep Apr -Sep
2009 2010 2009 2010
and personal services 6.7 2009 2010 2009 2010 -2
6 DIRECT INDIRECT TOTAL Apr Sep
Overall 2010 2010
% CHANGE -34.44 % CHANGE -34.44 8.8 % CHG 19.09 44.4 29.36 % CHANGE 19.86 % CHANGE -32.62
Source: RBI Source: Bloomberg Source: Ministry of Statistics Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Controller General of Accounts Source: DIPP