BRIDGE,

PROBABILIT &
l FORMTION
ROBERT F MACKINNON
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MASTER POINT PRESS I TORONTO, CANADA
Tcxt"201 0 obcrt Mack|nnon
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Libr and Arhives Canada Cataloguing m Publication
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Introduction
I
I . WHLNTHLDLMMYCML5LW J
Coont|ngCards A||cc|nbr|dgc|and 1
Thc InIcrcnt|a|Coont 7
IcrccntagcI|ay 9
WhcnV|rtocGocsLnrcwardcd I O
HowIrobab|||t|csAccomo|atc I J
ThcLn||ghtcnmcntoI5crogc I
I nCnc|us|on I 7
Z. LMTIN,LOIC,ANDHWWDLCIDL I 9
WhcrcDob|undcnComcIrom' ZO
Lock,ChanccandDcs|gn ZJ
ThcGodsLovcthcdds Z1
Isbr|dgca5c|cncc' Z5
J. THLCNCLPIFKbAbILITY Z7
Mathcmat|csandbr|dgc ZB
Fmbab|||tyIs5ynonymousw|thInIormat|on J I
AG||mpsc|ntothcH|stonoIFrobab|||ty JZ
Fasca|'sTr|ang|c J1
InIormat|onandFrobab|||ty|nthcZOthCcntun J5
Intcr|udcoIMov|cMadncss J7
Isbr|dgcbaut|m| ' JB
1. CMbINATIN5ANDILKMLTATIN5 J9
Vacat|onatthcHtc|duFarad|s 1I
backtoFasca|'sTr|ang|c 15
CardComb|nat|ons 1B
Compar|sonsoILvcnanddd5p||ts 5O
5. AFklklDD5ANDVACANTFLACL5 5 I
|dHatFrob|cm 5J
VacantF|accsandVar|ab|cdds 55
ThcDogthatD|dn'tbark I
Kccsc'sKcad|ngoIthcMuchMa||gncdJ-J5p||t J
F|aydown|na5u|t 5
TkojCmmu I iii )
WbatExact|yArcVacantI|accs ' 07
VacantI|accsanJI|ay|ngIortbcDrop 7O
Kc|scy'sKo|c 7 I
0. INIKMATINTHLKYANDDLCLAKLKFLAY 75
ThcAFnmddsand5u|t5p||ts 75
ThcD|v|s|onoI5|dcs BO
ThcHo||st|cApproachtothcD|v|s|onoI5|dcs BO
ThcD|str|but|onoI5|dcs BJ
ThcB705D|str|but|onoI5|dcs B5
Go|ngw|ththcdds B
Thc7700D|v|s|on 9O
Lmcr|tus]oncs's77D|sastcr|nthcD|n|ngHa|| 9l
7. INIKMATINAND5LKFKI5LNTHLFLNINGLLAD 95
Ld|thKcmpWas5urpr|scdatI|nt l OZ
5||cnccIsGo|dcn l OJ
ThcHcanLcadAga|nstJNT l O5
Frc|udctobaycs'Thcorcm-Thc]oumcy5 Iar l O7
B. AFFLYINGbAYL5'THLKLM l O9
Monty,Mar||ynandthcThcommoIbaycs l l O
baycs'ThcorcmApp||cdtoCardF|ay l l J
Thcbaycsbuat|on l l 5
Monty'sMcssagcs l l
baycs'ThcorcmandKandomD|scards l l 7
ThcLhcctoIa Fan|a| F|aydown l ZZ
9 NINL-NLVLK, LIGHT-LVLK,ANDbLYND l Z7
WhcnAFnmDosn'tWork l Jl
ThcL|ght-LvcrKu|c l J1
M|ss|ngthcjack-5|xth l 1l
ThcMajor|tyKu|cKcv|s|tcd l 11
lO. DLMN5TKATKDLAL5 l 17
LTF|aysaHand l17
ThcChang|ng5cascapc l 5O
FroIcssorLmcr|tusjoncsTakcsaV|cw l 5Z
A|mIorthcHarbr,butLokIorthc5hoa|s l 51
ddsandLvcns l 5
Hcy,M|stcr,What'sYourKush' l 5B
ThcAbbot'sG|antLcapoIIa|th l Z
I iv ) mc, Poman Iojm
Sobjcct|v|tyandIrobab|||ty 104
DcscartcsWasOndcrstandab|y|naadMo 100
l1. HWLXFLKT5FLAYTHL HAND l 7
IIYooWanttoF|ay||kc|a l 7
A Sbangba| Frobab|||ty l 9
Whcn5cvcm|HononArcM|ss|ng l 7Z
IcaroIthcLnknown
l 71
]asonHackctt'sD|rcctApproach l 77
Common-scnsc Frobab|||ty l BO
A Dub|ous5|gna| l BZ
l Z. HIGHCAKDFINT5ANDALLTHATjA l B5
Lxpcctat|onsoIHCFD|str|but|ons l B
InIormat|onandI|anncnZ0b|ds l BB
Tcb||gat|ontoInIorm
l9O
Con0|ct|ngMcthosatthcL5bZ07 l 9l
Long5u|tsvcrsus5hort5u|ts l 91
LTC -ThcLos|ngTr|ckCunt l97
lJ. FKbAbILITY,5TATI5TIC5ANDTLAW ZO5
5tat|st|csdthcLAW ZO7
Kchn|ngthcLAW ZO9
ThcLs|ngTr|ckCuntandTota|Tr|ck Z l Z
AnAppropr|atc5tat|st|ca|Approach Zl J
Frobab|||ty| nCompt|t|on Z l
InDchanccoIThcLAWI Zl B
ACnsu|tat|vcDub|c Zl 9
Ms.LKcgrcu. . .
ZZO
l1. bIDDING5Y5TLM5.INIKMATINANDC5T5 ZZJ
Whcn5comsArcKc|at|vc ZZ5
K|udgcKhymcsw|thIudgc ZZ
Dob|dd|ng5ystcmsMakcaD|hcmnccI ZZ7
Dctcm|ncYourFassKatcCmIononc ZZB
b|dd|ng5pacc.Thcbas|cCstoIInIomat|on ZJl
5trong]umpsMustbInIomat|vc ZJ l
InIormat|ondCst|nMocm5ystcms ZJJ
WhatD|dThcyGa|nbyFass|ngI ZJ5
ThcCstoIFass|ng ZJ
ThcMajon-I|ntMovcmcnt ZJ7
I|na|c.K|t'sCndCur ZJ9
AI|na|Thought
Z1l
TkojCmmu l N )
Tis page intentionally lef blank.
lN1kUDUL1lUN
'cgnattcacg|nn|ng, 't|cK|ngsa|d,gavc|y,
'amgoonunt||youcomctotcm, t|cnstop. '
- IromA||cc|nwonJmmbyLcw|sCarro|| |I BJZ- I B9BI
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Icrbaps notb|ng |n br|dgc |s as m|sondcntod as tbc corrcct app||cat|on oI
Irobab|| |tytotbcgamc. Tb|sbkrcprcscntsanattcmpttocorrcctsomcoItbc
worstm|sconccpt|ons,andattbcsamct|mc|ntrodoccsomc|dcashomtbcrca|m
oIInIormat|onTbcon,arc|atcdbrancboImatbcmat|cstbatdca|sw|tb|among
otbcrtb|ngslbowtomakctbcbstgocss|ntbcIaccoIpart|a||nIormat|on. Tbc
app||cat|onoItbc|attcrtobr|dgc|ssc|I-cv|dcnttoanymodcratc|ycxpcr|cnccJ
p|aycr.
Wbat |s not sc|I-cv|dcnt, bowcvcr, |s bow to prcscnt tbcsc matbcmat|ca|
|dcas|nawaytbatwon't|mmcd|atc|yprovokctbcavcragcrcaJcr|ntoc|os|ngtbc
bokIorcvcr. tbcIaccoI|t,noadv|cctoabodd|ngaotbor|scas|crtoIo||ow
tban tbat g|vcn by tbc K|ng to A||cc,Iorcvcntb|ng most bavc a bcg|nn|ng,
a m|dd|cand ancnd, w|tb tbcposs|b|ccxccpt|onoIt|mc |tsc|I. IItb|swcrca
b|stor|ca|novc|, wcwoo|dbstart|ng|nl 7tbccntonIranccwbcrcar|cbyoong
man, b|a|sc Iasca|, |swon|cd abot b|s gamb||ngdcbts. Tbc opcn|ng sccnc |s
sct|naIar|stavcm.
P ms|ppcduu|nc, 0youngmn's amomcjaccmcamcd|stottcd
u|t conc. 'c||cvc mc, Ccva||, ' moancd Faca| , '|jI don't jnd
0u|nn|ngjmumsoon, myjat|ct'svatjmtuncu|||d|sappcat|ntot|c
pockuojunspu|omgamaks .'
Tbcsobscqocnt |nvcnt|onoItbcTbconoIIrobab|||tycoo|JbcJcscr|bcJ |na
cbaptcrortwo,cnd|ngw|tbIasca|'scar|y dcatb |n I Z. Howcvcr, r|Jgcaswc
know|twasn'tp|aycdont|| l9ZJ, 5yooscctbcprob|cm-tbcrcwoo|J|ncv|tab|y
bdo||strctcbcsovcrtbc|ntcncn|ngZJycanw|tbon|ytbc|nvcnt|onoIwb|st,
tbcprcconoroIbr|dgc,to||gbtcntbcpagcs.
Wb|st, br|dgc w|tboot b|dd|ng, a||owcd sc|cnt|hc carJ p|ay to Jcvc|op.
Somcgrcat wb|st p|aycn arosc ovcr tbc ccntor|cs. Dcscbapc||cs, Yarborougb,
andTa||cymndarctbrccwboscnamcsson|vc|npostcr|ty. TbcIrcncbJ|p|omat
lntuction I 1 I
madc thcIo||ow|ngIamoos commcnt toaco||cagoc.'Yoodonotp|ayatwh|st,
mm|cut A|as,whatasado|dagcyooarcprcpar|ngIoryoorsc|I.'
nc oI thc morc Iam|||ar stor|cs rc|atcd to wh|st comcs hom a London
c|ob hcqocntcd by ar|stomts. Thc sccondar| oI Yarbrough had a go
undcntand|ngoI0 mm probab|||t|cs.Ashc sat down Iora gamc oIwh|st, hc
wou|d ohcr to g|vc any p|aycr Ll O |Idur|ng thc cvcn|ng thcy p|ckcd up a
hand that conta|ncd no card h|ghcr than a n|nc. A|| hc askcd was that thc
p|aycrp|cdgch|m Ll bIorccachdca|. Th|swasavcngoprops|t|onIorh|s
Lordsh|p asthc0 mmprobab|||tyoIthcocumncc oIsuchancvcntonany
g|vcndca||s l BZ. l .
back at your author's d||cmma, thcrc arc, unIonunatc|y, no god novc|s
rcvo|v|ngaroundwh|stp|ay|ng. It|sap|nthatjancAustcnd|dn'tapp|yhcnc|I
bcttcrtothccausc. Howcvcr,Ior thcpumscsoIth|sb k, wcarcmctodr|h
|nt|mc. IIwc assumc that thc rcadcrknowsa |otabut br|dgc and th|nkshc
knowssomcth|ngabutFrobab|||ty,wccanstartourwork|nthcm|dd|cw|ththc
d|scuss|onoIsomcbr|dgc dca|s. InChaptcr l , wc sha|| thcrcIorcgoovcrsomc
conccpts |suchasKcstr|ctcdCho|ccI thatamIam|||ar, a|thoughnotncccssar||y
comp|ctc|y undcntod, w|th thc a|m oI |atcr dcscr|b|ng how thcsc conccpts
ar|schom cons|dcmt|on oIprobab|||t|cs. Howcvcr, |Iwc arc toconcctwrong
|mprcss|ons,wcmustsoncror|atcrtack|cthcbas|cs, thatmcansgo|ngbackto
thcbcg|nn|ngsw|thFasca|,wh|chwcdo|nChaptcrZ. Throughoutthcb k,wc
arcgo|ngtocmphas|tcthatthcmodcmconccptoIInIomat|on|sc|osc|y||nkcd
to Fmbab|||ty. Ahcr cxp|or|ng thc app||cat|onoIInIormat|onThcon tocard
p|ay,wcsha||d|scussb|dd|ng,atop|cthatohcncomcshnt |nbr|dgcb ks,but
hcrccomcsatthccnd.
Thcrc arc many cxamp|cs d|scusscd throughout thc b k,dca|s p|aycd by
c|ub p|aycrs and cxpcrts a||kc. Thc cnon thcy makc arc sumr|s|ng|y s|m||ar
|nnaturc, wh|ch |sonc|cssonthc |mprov|ngp|aycr| |n wh|chcatcgonI p|acc
mysc|I, somcwhat hopcm||yI shou|d absorb. L counc, cxpcns makc Icwcr
m|stakcs, butthcrc |sa commona||n oIh|||b|||ty thatbcgstobc |nvcst|gatcd.
Whcnunccrta|nty|s|nvo|vcd,onccan'ta|waysmakcthcw|nn|ngdcc|s|on. Thc
pumosc throughout |s to gu|dc p|aycn |nto a way oIth|nk|ng that a||ows Ior
cont|nu|ng|mprovcmcnt. A|ongthcway,thcrcadcrw|||,wchop,d|ardsomc
m|sconccpt|ons and |cam somcth|ng oI Frobab|||ty and InIomat|on Thcon,
subjcctsthathavcw|dcapp||cat|onouts|dcthcbr|dgcwor|d.
CHAPTER1
WHLN|HL UMMLUMLb UWN
wvyoucan,count
-5|rIranc|sGa|ton |I BZZ- I 9I II, V|ctor|an5c|cnt|st


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AtthccorcoIa||sc|cnccsarcnumbcrs. Thcccntra|procssoIbr|dgcp|ay|ng |s
coont|ngcards. AtthchcanoIbr|dgcFrobab|||tyarcrat|osoIcardomb|nat|ons.
That'scnooghtosctusonthcr|ghttmck. Lwcgol
Whcnthcdummycomcsdown,adcc|arcr'shntduty|stoasscssh|scontract,
coontw|nncrsand |oscn, and bg|nthcprocssoIIorm|ngap|anIor thcp|ay.
Mcxthcmayscanthccardssu|tbysu|ttosccwh|chpos|t|onsnccdtobctack|cd
car|yandwh|chgucsscsshou|dbcdc|aycd. Tcmpt|ngasth|sapproach|stothc
|mpat|cntm|nd,|t|sthcwrongapproach -ancsscnt|a|hrststcp|nthccoont|ng
proccsshasbccnm|sscd.
Mot many br|dgc b ks w||| tc||you th|s, bot cvcnbcIorc cons|dcr|ng thc
|mp||cat|onsoIthcopcn|ng|cad,dcc|arcrshou|dcountthcnombcroIcardshc|d
jo|nt|y w|thdummy |ncachsu|t. IIbtwccnh|shand and thcdummyhchnds
c|ght spadcs, thcn thcdcIcndcn must ho|d thc rcma|n|ng hvc, |Iscvcn hcans,
thcdcIcndcrsho|ds|x,and5 on. Th|s|sknownascounting the sides. Asp|ay
progrcsscs,changcsocur,butthcd|v|s|onoI's|dcs'|sthchrmhamcworkw|th|n
wh|chsochchangcsocur,ascardscan'tjumphomoncsu|ttoanothcr.
br|dgc p|aycn arc vcn Iam|||ar w|th |nd|v|dua| hand pattcms. Thcy
rccogn|tc as 'noma|' a 11JZ shapc wh|ch ocursIorZ I.5%oIthc hands, and
as '0at' a 1JJJ shapc, wh|ch ocurs I 0.5%oIthc t|mc. Thc d|v|s|onsoIs|dcs
havcconcspond|ngpattcms. An B75 pattcm |sthcmostcommon,ocorr|ng
|nZJ.%oIdca|s,andncxt|sthc77pattcm,wh|chocurs|n I0.5%oIdca|s.
ThcIormcr|scons|dcrcd'norma|',thc|attcr'0at',rcqu|r|ngspcc|a|trcatmcnt.
Lct'scons|dcra 7-7--pattcmhntas|tocurs|nthcdcIcndcrs's|dc.|Thc
hyphcn s|gns |nd|catc that thc numbrs rc|atc to thc su|ts |nstr|ctordcr, thos
scvcnspadcs,scvcnhcarts,s|xd|amondsands|xc|ubs. I
ll lll
+ 4 - 3 + 3 - 4 + 5 - 2
<3 - 4 <4 - 3 <1 - 6
3 - 3 3 - 3 4 - 2
3 - 3 3 - 3 3 - 3
In thc abscncc oI b|dd|ng, Cond|t|ons I and II arc thc two most ||kc|y
d|str|bot|onsoIthcso|tsamongthcdcIcndcrs. Thcstr|ngsoInumbnrcprcscnt
thc doob|c hc||xoIthc dca|'s compos|t|on.Thcydctcrm|nc whcthcr you havc
cncoontcrcdsomcth|ngord|naryorsomcth|ngmorcunusua|,||kcthconcshown
|nCond|t|onIll. IIthcb|dd|nghgonc INT-JNTandthc|cad|sa|owspadc,
dcc|arcrshoo|d assumc Cond|t|on I as a work|nghypthcs|s, and |Ithc |cad |s
a|owhcart, Cond|t|on II. bg|nw|thwhat|smost ||kc|yandworkhomthcrc,
kccp|ng|nm|ndthc5cott|shprovcrb'Whatmaybmaynotb'.
ll lll
4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4
c 3 - 4 c 4. 3 c 3 - 4
< 3 . 3 < 3 . 3 < 4 . 2
+ 3 - 2 + 2 - 3 + 2 - 3
W|th B-7--5 as thc dcIcns|vc s|dcs, bth 1JJJ and 11JZ arc common hand
pattcms. a |ow spadc |cad, Cond|t|on I |s morc ||kc|y than Cond|t|on II,
bccaosc | nthc |attcrcasc, a hcart m|ghthavc bccn |cd. LndcrCond|t|on Ill,
ad|amondm|ghthavcbccn|cd,but|t|snoma|to|cadamajoraga|nstaJNT
contract.
Lvcntua||y,thcscobscnat|onscou|ddctcm|nc|nwhatmanncrdcc|arcrp|ays
thcc|ubsu|t. Th|s|snotmuchtogoon,wcagrcc,but|t|swhat'sava||ab|c. Thc
ncxtstcp |stogathcrmorc|nIormat|onatm|n|mumcost,s|nccthc|nIormat|on
gathcrcdmaya|tcronc'scst|matcoIthcsp||tsw|th|nasu|t.
Th|sconccptoIcount|ngs|dcsw|||b trcatcd |ngrcatcrdcta|| |atcr |nthc
bok, cspcc|a||y |nChaptcr 5, butIornow thc t|mc h comc toprov|dcsomc
sustcnancc |nthcIormoIcxamp|csoIhowthcprocssworks. IIyoushou|dhnd
thcsc nomorcthandcmonstrat|onsoIcommonscnsc, thcnyou havccapturcd
thccsscnccoIFrobab|||ty.
Counti ng Cards - Alice i n Bri dge land
'CanyoudoA o! ' 0W|Qucmm. 'Watatco ando
ando ando aodo aodo ando ando ando aodo!'
'Idon'tkmu' ,mA||cc, 'I|ostcount. '
'Smcan'tdoA o' , 0cdQuccn|nm pd.
-homTtoud0Lok|ngGUsbyLw|sCano||( I BJZ- I B9BI
bh|nd th|s abstract, onc can |mag|nc a k|nd|y, m|dd|c-agcd FroIcssorChar|cs
Ddgsonattcmpt|ngtotcach||tt|cA||cchowtocountoutthctrumpsdur|ngthc
p|ayoIahandoIwh|st. NotcasyIorayoungpcnonjust|ntrodoccdtoacomp|cx
gamc, and not, |nc|dcnta||y, thc bcst approach at br|dgc whcrc onc gcts toscc
thccards |nthcdummy. Mo, thcbcstway |sto |ntroduccapattcmmadc upoI
yourcardsp|usthcdummy'scards,thcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs,andtocounta||Ioorsu|ts
atonccbymod|h|ngthcpattcmasncwcardsappcardur|ngthcp|ay. Th|s|sa
muchcas|crway tokccptmck thanbycount|ngcardsoncby onc, su|t bysu|t,
wh|chovcrtaxcsthcmcmon.
Thcrc |sa mrthcradvantagc to th|s approach, bcs|dcs casc oIca|cu|at|on,
wh|ch |s that |t gcu a dcc|arcr to |ok at thc dca| m a who|c. Thc p|ay |n
oncsu|t maybcahcctcdbythcd|str|but|onoIcams|nanothcrsu|t,aswcsha||
dcmonstmtcw|thtwodca|sp|aycd|nMT,oncwhcrcacomp|ctccountcanbc
obta|ncd and a sccond whcm an |nIcrcnt|a| count |s uscd. |Ycs, wc know you
cou|d count thchand |nthc t|mc-honorcd way to. wc arcj usttn|ngtoshow
you thc 's|dcs'procss.I bth dca|s |nvo|vcp|ay|ngthccomb|nat|onoI0KQ
oppos|tc0AI 071. Thcconcct p|ay |nthcsu|tdcpcndsonthccond|t|ons|nthc
oots|dcsu|ts at thc t|mcoIdcc|s|on. It |snot truc that hncsscsarcdcst|ncdto
Ia||ha|Ithct|mc.
Hcrc|sadca|p|aycdbyA||cc|atcr|n||Ic,hcrgo|dcnr|ng|ctsnowatam|shcd
s||vcr.
Dealer South dm
NS Vul nerable + AJ 2
K Q 4
0 K Q 9
+ K 6 4 2
fm Ros
+ K Q 9 8 6 5
D
7 3
9 8 3 1 0 6 5 2
< J 5 3 < 8 4 2
+ 9 J 1 0 8 3
Aice
1 0 4
AJ 7
< A 1 0 7 6
+ A Q 7 5
fm dom Ros Aice
1 NT
2+ 6NT al l pass
AuntA||cc|shost|nghcrwcck|ygamcathomcw|thhcrIcck|cssncphcw,Ircddy,
andh|sspusc. Mowagndmothcr,shc|sst|||qu|tccapab|coIopcn|ngastrong
I MTw|th|cssthanthcmqu|rcdstrcngth| |nthoscdays, I HCFwascons|dcrcd
tbc abso|utc m|n|muml . Ircddy, wbo |s sbow|ng s|gns oIrcst|cssncss, tr|cs to
upsctbcrw|tbas|||yovcrca||,butbcrcvcrrust|ngbusbandg|vcsbcraspon|ng
ra|sc.IrcJdy|cadsa stra|gbtIomardKandawa|tsdcvc|opmcntsw|tba st|0cd
yawn.
' Itboogbttbcc|obsm|gbtsp||tbad|y,'saysbwardapo|ogct|ca||yasbcpots
downtbcdommy. It|sa|waysw|sctocovcryoorsc|Iw|tbA||cc.
'Tank yoo, Ldward. Your va|ocs arc qu|tc so|tab|c,' mp||cs b|s matc
rcassor|ng|y.
Th|s|oks||kcancasytwc|vctr|ck.twospadcs,thmchcarts,thmcd|amonds
and Ioorc|obson thc cxpcctcd J-Zsp||t.ThcdcIcndcn' card am most ||kc|y
d|v|dcdassbownundcrCnd|t|onIbc|ow.
I II Ill W
6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2
3 - 4 2 - 5 2 - 5 3 - 4
0 2 - 4 0 3 - 3 0 4 - 2 0 3 - 3
2 - 3 2 - 3 4 ! - 4 1 - 4
5t|||, Ldward may b r|ght, and |Ithc c|ubs don't sp||tJ-Z, A||cc w|||nccd to
makcIoortr|cks|nthcd|amondsu|t.Th|scanbdonc|nthrccways.hncss|ng|n
c|tbcrd|rcct|onorp|ay|ngIorthcjacktocomcdown|nthmcrounds. It|sa||a
mattcroIcoont|ngandp|ann|ngahcadIorcachcvcntua||ty.
A||cc takcs thc A and mtum thc su|t,Imddy tak|ngh|s4 and cx|t|ng
saIc|yw|thtbcW,acards|gn|h|ngnoth|ng. H|s|ong-sohcr|ngpanncrd|scams
tbcZ. Tb|s|oks ||kc |tm|ghtbc acountcamhomahvc-rd su|t. Inthat
casc,thcd|str|bot|onoIs|dcsm|ghtbthat||stcdundcrCnd|t|onII. Thcrc |s
st|||noprob|cmas|ongasc|ubsbhavc,botwhcnA||cccashcsthc4KQ, |cav|ng
tbc 4A |n dommy Ior thc pumscs oItmnspnat|on,Imddydm thc %.
Nowonc most cons|dcr thc pss|b|||tyoIthcd|str|bot|on undcrCnd|t|on III
whcrctbcpcrccntagcp|ay|stohncsscIrcddyIorthc0j.
ThankstohcrIorcs|ght |nnot rc|cas|ng thc4A |nhcrhand, A||cc |sab|c
top|ayohtbctophcartstoconhmthccxpctcdpmscnccoIadoob|ctonhcan
|ntbcWcstband,bottohcrm||dsumr|sc,thchcamsp||tcvcn|y,5shcobta|ns
thcm||coontrcprcscntcdbyCnd|t|onIV. Thchandhbcomcanopnbk
andA||ccp|aysohthctopd|amondsIortwc|vctr|cks.
'jo||ywc||donc,AontA||cc,'saysIrcddy. 'Idon'trca||yM howyouhgumd
oottodropmy0j. Aga|nstthcods,botyouron|ychancc,I|mag|nc.'
'It was |amc|ya mattcroILock,'saysA||cc, grac|oos|y r|ng|ng Ior bmndy
andchoo|atcb|scu|ts. W|thh|sw|Icprcscnt,|twasnotthc t|mctoadv|schcr
ncpbcwonthcnccdtocountootahandanddmwthcobv|ousconc|us|on.
l 6 ] mc,Pomn,Ioj
The I nferenti al Count
wc my nothcaktogctcm|nr, mtuccangctmob|||r,
andmj0 |oaj|sactmtmnnoHcad.
C.5.Lcw|s| I B9B- I 9JI
Dealer South
Jol
NS Vulnerable
A 1 0 2
< K Q 4 3
0 K Q 9
+ K 1 0 4
Wm Jn
K Q 9 8 6 3
D
7 5
< 9 7 < 1 0 8 6 5 2
0 8 5 0 J 4 3 2
Q 9 5 + J 6
Aice
J 4
< AJ
0 A 1 0 7 6
+ A 8 7 3 2
Wm I Jn MIte
1 +
2 3 . pass 40
pss 4` pss 4NT2
pss 6NT all pass
1 . R KCB fr diamonds.
2. Thre keycards.
Lt'sjompahcadtoLndon|nthcsw|ng|ngs|xt|cs. In I 94,Grcatbr|ta|nbas
wonthcWomcn'sTcambr|dgc|ymp|ad andhopcsarch|gbtbattbcmcncan
r|schomthc|rth|m-p|acchn|shandrcga|nthc|rIomcrsoprcmacy|nncxtycar's
wor|dchamp|onsh|ps. Thcgrcat-grandch||dmnoIA||ccandtbcrcstarcp|ay|ng
Iorh|ghstakcs|naMayIa|rc|ob. ThcncwA||cc,asmasb|ngboy-cotb|ondc, |s
ahcct|onatc|yknown3 'Moosctrap'bccaoscoIhcrpcncbantIorsbarppcna|ty
doob|cs whcn |csscr bc|ngs stmy. 5|tt|ng Wcst |s a r|ch rca| cstatc dcvc|opcr
hom Ncw York. Thc b|dd|ng systcms arc cvcr-chang|ng, and somct|mcs
m|sondcntand|ngsar|sc,botgodcontractsarcmcnrcachcdnonctbc|css. Uc
toanacc|dcntoIgodIortoncar|s|nghomahatyrcco||cct|onoItbc|atcstcra:c
Cmm I w0DammyCmsD | 7 |
Irom |ta|y, A||ccgcts to p|ay |naNTcontractw|tbaJcc|s|on tobc maJcon
tbc samc J|amonJ bo|J|ng. A|tboogbWcst'sovcrca|| |s now part oIa systcm
andnotamcrc0|gbtoIIancy,|tnonctbc|cssst|||provcs|nchcct|vcandtbc|cad
|stbcsamcK.
'5orn|I|gottb|swrong,'saysgcnt|cman|y]oc|asbc|aysdownb|scxcc||cnt
dommy.
A||cc w|ns tbcA |ndommy andp|aysohtbc A] bcIorc cstab||sb|ng a
sccond spadc tr|ck. 5am cx|ts w|tb tbc as Lt d|scards tbc Z. A groop
oIadm|rcnwbo|nc|odcMaor|ccHan|son-Gray|canIomard |ntbc|rcba|rs to
scc |Itb|s pct|tc b|ondccan makc twc|vc tr|cks wbcrc tbcLos|ngTr|ckCoont
prcd|ctsjost tbc obv|oos c|cvcn. Tbc top bcartsarc casbcd, wbcnWcst sbows
opw|tb s|x spadcsand twobcartsandLtw|tb twospadcsandhvcbcarts, tbc
rcma|n|ngmanagcab|cpss|b|||t|cs|nc|odc.
I
6 - 2
< 2 - 5
3 - 3
2 - 3
II
6 - 2
< 2 - 5
2 - 4
3 - 2
A||ccnccdstogcttbcd|amondsr|gbt,botsbccan'tgctam||coontbcaoscbcr
c|obsarcnotsomc|cnt|yrobost. Howcvcr,an|nIcrcnt|a|coont|sava||ab|cos|ng
tbcFr|nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc,wb|cbbasbcomca||tbcragcahcrTcrcncc
Kccscsbowcdcvcnoncbow|tworks. F|ay|ngohtbc4Aand+ K, sbcan|vcsat
tb|sIoor-cardcnd|ng.
ummy

<
K Q 9
! 0
Wm Jn
9
D
9
< - < -
8 5 J 4 3 2
+ Q -
Aice

<
A ! 0 7 6
-
| 8 I mc, Pom|||an Iojmo
With no nne having thrown a diamond yet, it's clear neither defender started
with four diamonds and the +Q, but there is another inference to be drawn.
On the second round of clubs, ]oanp|ayed thc+]. Tbe Pr|nc|p|e of Restr|ctcd
Cbo|cc tc||sus that Sam |stw|ccas|||c|ytobo|dtbcm|ss|ngqoccn as |s]oan.
TbosJoan most probab|y bcganw|tbtwospadcs,hvcbcans,Ioord|amonJsanJ
josttwoc|obs|ConJ|t|onI | I . Tbcd|amondhncssctbroogbbast|sa4.ZIavor|tc,
and so|ttransp|rcs.
'Wc|| donc, my dcar,' wb|spcrs Han|son-Gray as Sam ma|cs somc notcs
|na ||tt|c b|ac| boo|. 'Lct mc pot yoor namc bcIorc tbc sc|cct|on comm|ttcc
Ior ocnosA|rcs. Wcprc-waranc|cntsnccd rcjovcnat|on |Iwc arc toopbo|d
r|tann|a'sbonor.'
'Yoong|ady,yoosboo|dtakcopMaononb|sohcr,'adv|scstbcNcwYorkcr.
'Tbc OSoIA w|||bavc Mrs Haydcn on tbcpcn Tcam, wboyoo vcn mocb
rcm|ndmcoI. Sbcp|aysaswc||asanyman. '
'Andbcttcrtbanmost,'sn|hsjoan.
'Yoo'rcsoswcct,Maor|ccandSam,andIdoso|ovctbctango . . . ' sm||csA||cc.
'Hc|pmcbcrc,]oc|.Yoobctbcj odgc.canwomcntodaycons|dcrtbcmsc|vcstbc
cqoa|oImcn''
'| mysc|Iratc tbcmabvc mcn, a|waysbavc, ' rcp||csjoc|dr||y, 'a|tboogb I
cons|dcr|t|argc|yamattcroIpcrsona|prcIcrcncc. '
Percentage Play
Ft|mpkamjatatckcycsamjcct.
- ZcnMastcrIayanWcny||BBJ-9JBI
JAYNES' PRINCIPLE: I n maki ng i nfrences on the basis of partial infrmation
we must use the probabilit di stribution which has maxi mum uncertaint
subject to whatever i s known.
Tbcabovcstatcmcnt|soncoItbcootstand|ngacb|cvcmcntsoItbcZOtbccnton
w|tbrcgardtotbcapp||cat|onoIprobab|||tytbcontosc|cnt|hccndcavor. Tbc
conscqocnccs to p|ay|ng a br|dgc dca. arc cas||ystatcd. Wbctbcr wc tb|nkoI
max|momonccrta|nnorrat|osoIcardcomb|nat|ons,|tcomcstotbcsamctb|ng.
p|ayIorsp||tstbatarcascvcnasposs|b|condcrtbcc|rcomstanccs-tbcrcarc
morc cascs, and tbcrcIorc tbcy arc morc ||kc|y. Lcoorsc,c|rcomstanccs may
cbangcdramat|ca||y wbcn tbc dcIcndcn arc Iorccd to makc a rcvca||ng p|ay,
c|tbcr by sbow|ng oot oIa so|t, or p|ay|ng a card tbat damagcs tbc|rcbanccs
|Kcstr|ctcdCbo|ccI .
Lcoorsc,tbcmorc|nIomat|onatonc'sd|sposa|,tbcbcttcrw|||bctbcbas|s
Ioradcc|s|onand tbcmorc||kc|ytbccvcnsp||t,sotbcprocssIccdson |tsc|I.
Cmm I w0DammyCmsD [ 9 I
An imbalance of vacant places or the unexpected fal l of an honor must be taken
into account as these are indications of uneven splits. This leads to the following
genera|advice for declarers:
BOB'S BLI ND RULE: Gather as much information as you safly can, then play
fr as even spl its as are sti l l possible under the ci rcumstances.
Th|s ro|c |s 'b||nd'bccaoscno attcnt|on |s g|vcn to thc rc|cvancc oIthc spot
cards. Thc onknowncards may rcma|n as anonymoos as thcy wcrc dor|ng thc
dca|. Anothcr way oI |ok|ng at th|s |s that jayncs' Fr|nc|p|c app||cs to thc
comb|nat|ons oIthc dca| w|thoot rcgard to rcstr|ct|ons |n thc p|ay, cach card
bc|ng an |ns|gn|hcant card p|aycd at random. Thos, thc m|c |s cqo|va|cnt to
p|ay|ngaccord|ngtothcnatorcoIab||nddca|.
5|gn|hcantcards |n s|dc so|ts may b rcvca|cd throogh thc phasc dobbcd
'thcgathcr|ngoI|nIormat|on'. IIthcdcIcndcnIo||oww|th|owcards,notmoch
|nIormat|on |s rcvca|cd, as th|s |s thc noma| ocomncc, howcvcr, whcn a
dcIcndcrshowsootoIaso|t,thc|nIormat|oncontcnt |sh|ghandaccomtc. Thc
po|nt|sthatadcc|arcrshoo|d makcaconsc|ooschorttoobta|n|nIomat|on |n
othcrso|tsthatahcctsthcprobab|||t|csoIacr|t|ca|cho|cc,thcsp||t|noncso|t
b|ngdcpcndcntonthcsp||t|nanothcr.
bb's b||nd Ko|c |scontrantothcnoma| adv|cc g|vcn torcadcrsoIbr|dgc
||tcratorc,wb|ch|shntandIorcmostthatadcc|arcrshoo|dgoamaga|nstpss|b|c
d|sastcn. Inmanyboks,onchndsprob|cms|nwh|chthcaothorsoggcstsap|ay
that|scontrantothcmostprobab|c||coIthccards,thcporpscb|ngtoassorc
acontractthatwoo|dIa|||nsomcc|rcomstanccs.That |scspcc|a||y rc|cvant to
IMFs scor|ng whcrc assor|ng thc contract takcs prcccdcncc. Matchp|nts, on
thc othcrhand, |sa gamc oIhcqocncy,thosmorcc|osc|y t|cd toprobab|||t|cs.
Goard|ngaga|nstbadsp||ts|snotohcnthcma|nconccm,so|Ioncp|aysaga|nst
thcoddsandho|dsoncsc|ItoIcwcrthanthcnoma|nombroItr|cks,thcrcso|ts
w|||sc|domp|casconc'spartncr.
When Vi rtue Goes Unrewarded
No V|caccvcs| nCmmc.
Ir|cdr|chN|ctnchc( I B11I 90I
br|dgc|sagamcoIpcrccntagcs,andasw|thanysochcndcavor,socccssorIa||orc
on a g|vcn ocas|on shoo|dn't bc takcn pcrsona||y. Iavorab|c odds arc not
ccrta|nt|cs. It|ssa|dthatNapo|concons|dcrcdh|msc|IaManoIDst|ny,botd|d
hccons|dcr|os|ngthcbatt|coIWatcr|oarcso|toIbadp|ann|ng,badd|gcst|on,
orIatc' Wc|||ngtonIamoos|ysa|d |twaswononthcp|ay|nghc|dsoILton,bot
l l0 | mc,Poman Iojm
car||cr bad notcd, 'I don't tb|nk |t woo|d bavc donc |I| bad not bccn tbcrc. '
Nopob||c crcd|twasg|vcntotbc t|mc|yarr|va|oIb|cbcr'sGcrman |nIantry.
Actoa||y,InIormat|onwastbckcy.tbcbatt|cwas|ostdoctoa|ackoI|nIormat|on
ontbcIrcncbs|dcrcgard|ngtbc|mm|ncntarr|va|oItbcscrc|nIorccmcnts.
Iortboscrcadcrsw|tbatastcIor|rony,bcrc|sadca|p|aycdonNovcmbcrI B,
ZOO7byL|ITonda|,ap|aycrwboamontbcar||cr|n5bangba|badbccncrowncd
awor|dcbamp|on. pt|m|st|ca||y,bcopcncda||gbtIandsobscqocnt|ysbowcd
|ongbcartsandas|ng|ctonc|ob. Tbcopcn|ng|cadaga|nstwastbcZ,tb|rd-
and-hItbbcst. Howm|gbtyoogoabootgatbcr|ngtwc|vctr|cks'
0
meIm
AJ
< Q 7
0 A Q 7 3
K Q 9 8 6
7undoI
1 0 6
< A K 1 0 9 8 4 3
0 K 1 0 4
. 7
Oppsion Sides
9
4
6
7
SpIm
S - 4 3 - 6
2 - 2 2 - 2
3 - 3 4 - 2
3 - 4 4 - 3
btb s|dcs am 970. G|vcn thc |cad |s hom an od nombr, tbc two most
||kc|y d|str|bot|onsoIthcdcIcndcn' so|ts am g|vcn ontbc r|gbt. Tbc |chmost
cncompasscs m|cc thc numbr oIcomb|nat|om as tbaton thc r|gbt, bcncc |s
rcprcscntcdbytw|cctbcprobab|||ty. |Wcsba||sbow|atcrbowtb|scanbcas||y
ca|co|atcdat tbc tab|c. I Not|cc tbcchcctoItb|nk|ngaboots|dcs, asopposcd
to |so|atcdso|ts. Ycs,0 mm, tbcd|amondsammorc ||kc|ytobmak 1-Z tban
J-J. bot|ncm,g|vcnwhatwcknowabotthcmma|n|ngso|ts,tbc|chmost
d|v|s|onoIs|dcs|wh|ch|nc|odcsaJ-Jd|amondbrcakI|stbcmorcprobab|c.
bb's b||nd Ko|cg|vcs massomncc tbat tbccbanccsarcgod tbata |os|ng
spadcorc|ob|nbandcanbd|scardcdontbcIoorthd|amond|ndommy. Dcc|arcr
obv|oos|ydosnotw|sbtorc|ycomp|ctc|yonJ-Jd|amonds,bot|t|sd|mco|tto
mod|htbc|n|t|a|assompt|onsabottbcsp||tsdoctoa|ackoIcommon|cat|ons.
TbcManoIDst|nym|gbtdmwtworoonJsoItmmpscnd|ng|ndommyandnot
bcsorpr|scdwbcntbcysp||tZ-Z. Tb|nk|ngtbc0I0waspottbcrcIorapomosc,
bc woo|dtakcan |mmcd|atchncsscIor tbc0j and c|a|m b|scontract. joanoI
Arc m|gbtbavcp|aycd|ttbatway,orA|cxandcrtbcGmat,bottbcybotbd|cd
yoong. TboscoIosw|thIa|ntcrbcartspmIcrnottogodownatTr|ck1.
TbcsaIcstwaytogatbcr|nIomat|on|sbyrcad|ngd|scardswbcnoncmnsa
|ongtmmpso|t,|t|sa|sothcmostonm||ab|c,bccaosctbcdcIcndcnsonbcomc
awarc oIwbatyoo am tn|ng todoand w|||d|scard |ntbc most on|nIormat|vc
Cmm I W t DmmyCmsD | II I
way poss|b|c. Howcvcr, |t docsn't bort to p|ay oha str|ng oI bcarts and scc
wbat bappcns. |rcparat|on and InIormat|on. IIonc dcIcndcr parts w|tb two
d|amonds,tbcnp|ay|ngtodroptbc0j maybccomctbcbcttcrp|ay. Tb|s|sbow
tbcdcc|arcr|ntbcotbcrromp|aycdtbcbandandbcwasrcwardcdw|tbtwc|vc
tr|cks. Howcvcr, bcbad opcncd 1vandp|aycdtbcrc, so tbc cxtratr|ckswcrc
mcrc|ytb|ck |c|ng |a|donaratbcronappct|t|ngcakc.
L|I Tonda|wasnotw||||ngtor|skcvcryth|ngonancar|yhnccorancvcn
sp||t. Hc,to, ohthchcartsbIombroach|ngd|amonds. DIcnd|ngas|am,
armcdw|tbthcknow|cdgcthatdcc|arcrwasvcn||kc|ythcpssoroIthc0K,
tbcopponcntswcrc|cssw||||ngtopanw|thad|amond. T|swastbcm||dca|.
Uncqs
K 9 2
V 5 2
< 9 6 5 2
+ A 1 0 4 3
G..im
AJ
V Q 7
< AQ7 3
+ KQ9 8 6
D
Tncal
1 0 6
V A K 1 0 9 8 4 3
< K 1 0 4
7
Tonl
Q8 7 5 4 3
V J 6
< J 8
+ J 5 2
Dcc|arcrwontbcopcn|ng|cadw|thtbcAand ohbcamtorcachth|ss|x-
cardcnd|ng.

V
< AQ7 3
+ KQ
K
D
Q8 5
V V
< 9 6 5 2 < J 8
+ A + 5
1 0
V 4
< K 1 0 4
7
l lZ ) mc,PIojm
Nowontbcp|ayoItbc |ast bcart, Wcstpartcd w|tb tbcK, dommy tbrcw thc
4
QandLasttbcJ. TbcstagcbadbccnsctIoranc|cgantw|nn|ngp|ay,wh|ch
|s tocx|tw|tb tbc 47, cndp|ay|ngWcst |nto brcak|ng tbcd|amondso|t. Tc
stohtbatdrcamsarcmadcoI.
Howcvcr, Tunda| cou|d not bc surc tbat Last d|dn't bavc tbc 4A a|ong
w|tb a spadc w|nncr. Hca|sohad a shrcwd |dca tbat tbc d|amonds wcrc sp||t
4-Z, soc|cctcd top|ayIor Wcst tobo|dtbc0j a|ongw|tbtbc or08. Tbc
comb|nat|ons|nvo|vcdarc.
OJ9x 0 8x
OJ8x 0 9x
0 8xx OJ9 0 9xx OJ8
Konn|ng thc0l0works|ns|xcomb|nat|ons,wh||cthc0jdrops|non|y two,so
Tonda|madcthcconcctbut|os|ngp|ayoImnn|ngthc0l 0, |os|ngtotbc0jand
go|ngdowthrcc. LnIortunatc|y,thc|ackoIcntr|csprcvcntcdh|mhomcasb|ng
tbc OK hntandscc|ngLst's0, wh|ch m|ghthavccauscd b|m torctb|nk b|s
||ncoIp|ay.
Wcmay|mag|ncthcpstmoncmw|thh|stcammatcs.
'bardZ0,m|nusB0.'
'Lscl 1. '
'Youwcntdowthrcc|nv''
'Ycs,notdoub|cd.'
' Iscc. Wc||p|aycd,L|I.'
Tbatconvcnat|on |shamtob||cvc, |sn't |t' Lsua||y, ap|ay |snotcons|dcrcd
br||||antun|css|tco|nc|dcsw|thrca||n. T|s|sunIa|r,surc|yap|aycanbcjodgcd
tobcopt|ma|w|thoutrcIcrcncctotbcoutcomc. A 7J%hncssc w|||Ia||ZJ%oI
tbc t|mc, |t'snoonc'shu|t. IIa ZJ%hncssc works, tbc v|ct|ms sboo|dn't Icc|
tbcy havcbcnrobbcd. An |nIcr|or||nchg|vcntbcmacbancctbcyd|dn't
|ntbcorydcscnc. Asto|crcact|on|sbst,sohcncdbytbcbopctbatncxtt|mc
jost|ccw|||bscncdandthcbttcrs|dc|younIw|||bcg|vcnrcdrcss. 5bort-tcrm
pa|n,ycs,but|ong-tcmga|n,|It|mcdosn'tmnouthrst.
How Probabi lities Accumulate
W t min uin0stt of uncmnn,
t sl st impse drives i t R e,ther side.
- Tcrcncc| l BJ- l J9bI
It|sohcnsa|doIac|oscdcc|s|onthat|t|sa'co|n-toss'. Wcdon'tactoa||ygctoot
aco|natthcbr|dgctab|c,prcIcn|ng|nstcadtomakcan|mpu|s|vcgocss,pcrbaps
bascd on a s||ght hcs|tat|on orgcsturc on tbc part oIan opponcnt, bot oItcn
Cmm I W 0DammyCmsD | l J I
bascdonoorownpsycbo|og|ca|rcsponscstoacr|s|ss|toat|on. Tcrc|snobarm
|ntb|s,and|nIactsocbgocsscsarca|argcpanoItbcIontbattbcgamcprov|dcs.
Mobam|sdoncas|ongastbcdcc|s|on|stm|yc|oscto50-50.
Qo|tcoItcnonccncoontcrs |ntbcbr|dgc ||tcratorc an ana|ys|stbatsbows
tbatonc||ncoIp|ay,ca|| |tpt|onA,|sbcttcrtbananotbcr||ncoIp|ay,pt|on
b,byasma||pcrccntagc. Tbcautbormaytbcncommcnt tbat 'tbcd|hcrcncc,
a|tboogb sma||, adds up qu|ck|y'. Gamb||ng cas|nos do |ndccd makc Ionuncs
onsma||pcrccntagcadvantagcs,butthcyamopcmt|ngZ1hounaday,JJdays
a ycar. Tbc argumcnt |s |css conv|nc|ng as Iar as br|dgc |s conccmcd, whcrc
advantagcsga|ncdarcw|pcdoutonccamatch|scomp|ctcd. 5upposcpt|onA
|sconcctJZ%oItbct|mcandpt|onbon|y1B%oIthct|mc. vcr l0 p|ays
onavcragctbcd|hcrcnccbtwccncbos|ngAovcrbaddsuptoj ustIourcascs.
Tbatbard|ysccmss|gn|hcant,cspcc|a||ywhcn|npmct|ccthcd|hcmncccanmn
|ntbcotbcrd|rcct|on|nsuchasma||samp|c.
To scc bow probab|||t|cs accumu|atc ovcr scvcm| 'tr|a|s', |ct's hnt |ok at
tbcwc||-knowncascoIasp||t|ntbcdcIcndcn'cardswhcndcc|arcranddummy
bo|dc|cvcncards |na su|t. ThcdcIcndcn'cardsw||| sp||t l - l w|than0 p
probab|||ty oI JZ% and w||| Ia|| to do so w|th an 0 mm probab|||n oI1B%.
5opposctbatsomconcuscsa computcrtogcncmtcmndomdca|sand|m|atca
scqucnccoIdca|s |nwh|ch tbcdcIcndcnbo|d twocards |nasu|t|ncachdca|.
Nowyouarcaskcd tobtonwhcthcrtbchrstdca|gcncmtcd |sa l - l dca|ora
Z-0dca|. Natum||yyouw|||gow|th thcodsandbtonpt|onA, a l - l sp||t.
Froccd|ngtotbcscconddca|,youarcaga|naskcd tobt,and,natum||y,oncc
morc,youw|||cboscpt|onA. Andsoondownthc||nc.onca|wayschoscs
thc opt|on w|th thc bttcr odds. Howcvcr, chos|ng thc comct opt|on dos
notmcanyoubavcchoscnthc'r|ght'opt|on,Iort|onb w|||ocuraccna|n
pcrccntagc oItbc t|mc. It |scasy cnough to ca|cu|atc thcpncntagcIor any
numbcroIdca|s,start|ngw|thtwo.
Two 1 - 1 splits 27%
One 1 - 1 split, one 2. 50%
Two 2. spl its 23 %
Iortwodca|s, ha|Ithct|mc,oncoIthcdca|shasa l - l sp||tandthcothcrhasa
Z-0 sp||t.Tbcadvantagcto bctt|ngonthc l - l sp||t|scv|dcnton|y|nthccascs
oItwo-oI-a-k|nd,whcrctwol - l sp||tsoutwc|ghtwoZ-0sp||tsby1%. IIoncbts
onpt|onAoncachdca|,onchtocxpccttosuhcr|osscsonbthdca|s ZJ%
oItbct|mc.
Lcoursc,oncbastowa|ta|ongt|mctop|ayhandsw|thc|cvcn-cardhts,
so th|srcsu|tdos not appcar to bc oImuchpmct|ca|usc. Howcvcr, tbcsamc
amumcnt app||cs to cbos|ng opt|ons |n thc p|ay oItbc cards. 5uppsc that
dur|ngascss|onyouhavctocboscbctwccntwo ||ncsoIp|ay,oncw|tha JZ%
l l4 I mc, Pm,Injm
cbancc oIsocccss and a sccond w|tb a 4B% cbancc oIsocccss. Matora||y yoo
w|||cboosctbconc w|tb tbcb|gbcr pcrccntagc, pt|onA. Latcr|ntbcscss|on
vooarcca||cdopontomakcanotbcrc|oscdcc|s|on. Itmaynotbccxact|yZ-4B
aga|n,bot sopposc tbat |s a c|osc approx|mat|on. Tc cbanccoIgctt|ng botb
dcc|s|ons r|gbt |s Z7%, bccaosc voo bavc cboscn tbc opt|mom ||nc tw|cc |n a
row,bottbccbanccoIbotbdcc|s|onsbc|ngwrong|sZJ%. Ha|Itbct|mcvoow|||
soccccdonccandIa||oncc.
Lct'scxtcndtbcscqocncctos|xdca|s|nascss|on. HcrcarctbcpcrccntagcsIor
w|nn|ngdcc|s|onswbcnonca|wayscboscstbcconcctopt|on. Iorcompar|son,
wcg|vctbcpcrccntagcswbcncacbcbo|ccmprcscnua5O-5Otoss-op.
kesum 5050 528 M nce IW Mnce
6 right 0 wrong 2% 2% 3% + 1 %
5 right - 1 wrong 9% 1 1 % +2% 1 6% +7%
4 right - 2 wrong 23% 25% +2% 29% +6%
3 right - 3 wrong 3 1 % 3 1 % 29% -2%
2 right - 4 wrong 23% 22% - 1 % 1 7% -%
1 right - 5 wrong 9% 8% - 1 % 5% -%
0 right - 6 wrong 2% 1 % - 1 % 1 % - 1 %
IIyooa|wayscbosctbcb|gbcrprobab|||tyopt|onhoma5Z-4Bd|hcrcnt|a|,yoo
w|||bcr|gbtmorctbanyouamwong|ntbcrat|ooIJB%toJ l %,andbcncotra|
J l % oItbc t|mc. IIyoo cbosc tbc |nconcct opt|on ba|Itbc t|mc, tbc chcct
woo|dbc tbcsamc as |Iyoohccda 5O-5Ocbo|cc. Intbats|tuat|on, tbc r|gbts
and wrongs arc ba|anccd oot. Tbc samc app||cs |Ipt|on A |s 5Z%on ba|I
tbc dca|s and 4B% on tbc otbcrba|I, tbc ovcm|| chcct bc|ng tbat tbc cbo|cc
bctwccn pt|on A and t|on b bccomcs a 5O-Otoss-op tak|ng a|| s|x dca|s
|ntoaccoont.
TbcopsbotoItb|sana|ys|s|stbattbcrc|snogrcatrcwardtobccamcdhom
p|ay|ng'concct|y'wbcntbcoddsarcc|oscto5O%. Tbcunccrta|ntv |sb|gband
tbccardsw|||bc onh|cnd|ya|mostasohcnastbcyarc h|cnd|y. Tbc dcc|s|ons
yoo most str|vc togctconcctarc tboscIor wb|cb tbc oddsstrong|vIavoronc
opt|onovcrtbcotbcr. 5ocbacasc|ssbownbytbc7-4Jco|omnontbcIarr|gbt,
Ior wb|cb tbc major|ty 'r|gbts' ootnombcr tbc major|tv 'wrongs' 4B% to ZJ%.
Tb|srcprcscntsab|g|ncrcascovcrtbcor|g|na|d|hcrcncc. Inbr|dgctcrms,tb|s
|sad|hcrcncconccncoontcn|ntbcIo||ow|ngs|toat|on.
A 1 0 K J
Dcc|arcrbasa cbo|cc oIhncss|ngIor tbcqoccnbycasb|ngtbcaccand |cad|ng
towardstbcjackorcasb|ngtbck|ngand|cad|ngtowardstbctcn. II|t|sknown
thatoncdcIcndcrbo|dsIoorcards|ntbcso|tandtbcotbcron|ytbrcc,tbcconcct
CmmJ I W t DammyCmsD I l 5 I
p|ay |stop|aythcJcIcnJcrw|ththcIoorcardsIorthcqoccn,thcIavorab|codds
bc|ng 57% vcrsos43%. |I|t |snot known how thccarJsarcsp||tbctwccn tbc
JcIcndcrs,thcnJcc|arcrmaygocssc|tbcrway w|tb a 50-50 chanccoIgctt|ng |t
r|gbt, g|vcntbc|ackoIknow|cdgcava||ab|cattbct|mcoIdcc|s|on.
Good tccbn|qoc rcqo|rcs tbat dcc|arcr gatbcr |nIormat|on to a|d |n b|s
dcc|s|onabootwb|cbwaytohncssc. Tb|s|snota|waysposs|b|ctoaccomp||sb
w|thsaIcty, |nwb|cbcasconccancxpccttogct|tr|gbton|yba|IoItbct|mc. II
oncncg|cctsthcgathcr|ngoI|nIomat|on,thcrc|sast|hpr|cctobcpa|d,apr|cc
that |ncrcascsovcrscvcm|sochdca|s. Itu |mpnt K atmtK cmntour t
hn. F|ay|nga57-4Jdcc|s|onas|I|twcrca5O-5Odcc|s|onmsu|ts|ns|gn|hcant
|osscscvcn |ntbcshort tcrm. S thcconc|os|ononcdraws |sthatoncshoo|d
work on gctt|ng thc c|car-cut oncs r|ght and not worn abut thc tm|y c|osc
dcc|s|ons that d|dn't work oot |n your Iavor. Indccd, |n c|osc dcc|s|om, onc
sboo|dprcIcrthcopt|onthat,|Ir|ght,prooccs thcgcatcstrcward.
The Enlightenment of Scrooge
!Humug!
-bcnctcr5crogc,AChmmCaroI | l B4JI
Thc wr|t|ngsoIChar|csD|ckcnscantcachmsomcth|ngabutthcpropcrsp|r|t
|nwh|ch toapproach thcgamcoIbr|dgc. Kcca||,Ior cxamp|c,whatbnctcr
5crogccxpcr|cnccd onc Chr|stmasvc |ongago. bIorc that n|ght, 5crogc
woo|d havcbccn |n||ncIorthcNob| Fr|tcIor conom|c, |I|thadcx|stcd |n
h|s t|mc. Inoormorccn||ghtcncdt|mcs,wc mcog|tc that thcpst-Chr|stmas
5crogcwasthcbcttcrman,andthcbttcrcconom|sttob t -aprc-Kcyncs|an,
no |css. Asw|th5crogcandChr|stmas, m w|ththoscwhosay 'Humbugl ' to
br|dgcFrobab|||ty. Ycs,oncmaystmgg|conm|scmb|yw|thoot |t,bothowmuch
r|chcroor||vcsbccomcwhcnwccancnjoy|tsbnchtstothcm|| l
A br|dgc 5crogc dcscncs a n|ght v|s|tat|on hom thc thrcc sp|r|ts oI
Frobab|||ty.Fast, Frcscnt, and Iuturc. ThcGhostoIFrobab|||nFastw|||spcak
oIwhat cannot bc changcd and |s Iorcvcr hxcd, thc am odds w|th wh|ch
cvcndca|bcg|ns. nchasgrcatcxpcctat|om,but a|as, mmct|mcsonc |sdca|t
a yarbroogb. Iorthcmorc, thc Ghost w||| mca|| thc numcrous dca|s whcn
5crogcp|aycd aga|nst thcodsand wcntdow |ncontmcuthatshou|d havc
soccccdcd.
Frobab|||ty Frcscnt w||| show 5crogc thc panncn hc thrcw away by a
stubbm rcmsa| tochangc h|s ways. Atth|s ycar'sChr|stmas pam,hcw|||scc
h|scx-partncrshav|ngagodt|mcw|thouth|m. 5omcarcobv|ous|yhappyw|th
thc|rncwpartncrs,othcn, ||kcA||cc,arcnot,a|thooghhcrbr|dgcsccmstohavc
|mprovcdrcmarkab|ys|nccthc|rbrcakup. Thc 5p|r|t w|||tc|| h|m,'Thcpast |s
l l | mc, Pom,an Inj
cvcr|ost, tbcmtorc|sbcyondrcacb,soa||yoobavc|cIt|stbcprcscnt. Lcamto
||vc|n|t.'
Last|y,Irobab|||tyIotorcw|||spcakoItbconccrta|nt|mcstocomcwbcnonc
canon|yspcco|atconwbat|s ||kc|ytohappcn-goodandbad,botmost|ybad
|I5croogckccpsgo|nga|ongthcsamctrack. Tbc5p|r|tw|||poscqucst|ons||kc,
'IIIp|ayacc-k|nganda|owc|ub,whatarcthcchanccsIcancndp|ayanunwan
Ircd'' 5crogcw|||bc |ct |nona mturcpost-mortcm |nwh|ch thcd|scuss|on
oIh|sab|||t|csbccomcsprcttymnks|ncchc'snotthcrctodcIcndh|msc|I. Hc
maysaytothc5p|r|t,'Dcsp|tcwhatMn.D||bcrsays,I'msumIwou|da|waysdo
whatwaspropcratthct|mc,'butthatj ustdosn'tcut|t|nthcIaccoIthchanh
commcnuoIaccusatontcam-matcs.
Lctushopcthatthc5cm gcsoIthcbr|dgcwor|dw|||havcachangcoIhcart,
|camthcbas|csoIprobab|||ty,cndcavortobsympathct|ctothc|rpanncn,and
||vcbapp||ycvcrahcr|nthc|rncw-IoundstatcoIsc|I-awamncss. AsTnyTm
m|gbtsay,'God b|css us cvcn onc, cvcn thosc unIonunatcs whodo not p|ay
br|dgc. '
In Concl usi on
Chnce ur R0fol gve K F.
IrcdAsta|rctoG|ngcrKogcn|nTh GayDivocee |l 9J4I
Ho||ywoIantasy|sap|casantcntcrta|nmcnt,orutob,but|t|sunma||st|c.
Hcrcthc wr|tcn got |t thc wmng wayaround. It's not thc mn oIadm|ss|on
onc makcs whcn ho|d|ng hands ovcr a cand|c||ght d|nncr |n cc|cbrat|on oI
twcnty ycan oI happy man|agc, but Iatc h morc to do w|th prcparcdncss
tbanopportun|ty. It |ssaIc tospakoIIatcwhcnrcIcn|ngtothc past, but|t|s
dangcroostocounton|t|nthcmtum.
Tbcwho|c|dcabh|ndthcsc|cnt|hcapproach|stocxccutcbr|dgcp|ayand
b|dd|ng|nasystcmat|cway,putt|ngcmphas|sonwhat|smostprobab|c. Inth|s
|ntrodoctorychaptcr,wc'vc|okcdatsomcmndamcnta|soIdcc|arcrp|ayasthcy
pcrta|ntocardcomb|nat|ons. Thcmost |mportantconccpt |ntroduccdwasthc
|dcaoIcount|ngoutaside. Wc a|sod|scovcmd thatthcmostprobab|csp||toI
tbc s|dcs may|nvo|vcaspcc|hcsu|tbrcak|ng|nawaythat dos notconIomto
tbcodds|n|so|at|on. b's b||ndKu|c |Fuyfo sut K split mevenly mpossible,
conistnt wt r infono ymhve) |sthc s|mp|cstIormoIpcrccntagc p|ay.
Latcrwcsha||d|scovcrcxccpt|onstoth|ss|mp||hcat|on.
IIa thcory |sm|sundcntod,|tw||| b m|sapp||cd, andhomth|sw|||ar|sc
m|sondcntand|ng, conms|onandd|s|||us|onmcnt. IIthc thcon |sundcntod,
astb|sonccanbbymostp|aycn,|t|sno|ongcrncccssantop|ayaccord|ngto
s|ogans w|thout know|ngwhy. That |s thc mt|ona|c bh|nd dcvc|op|ng bas|c
CmmJ I W t DammyCmsD l l7 !
probab|||ty thcor stcp by stcp, w|th manycxamp|cs, togo|dc thc rcadcr a|ong
a path oI|cam|ng. Wccan cxp|orc soch conccptsas'rcstr|ctcdcho|cc','|os|ng
tr|ck coont', 'vacant p|accs' and 'tbc |aw oI tota| tr|cks' to thc bcncht oItbc
comm|ttcdrcadcr. Indccd,oncdcr|vcsgrcatp|casorcIromcxc|a|m|ng,'Ab, ycs,
nowIondcrstand. '
Wc a|so want to corc tbc cxpcr|cnccd p|aycr wbo bas bccn |cd astray
|ntoanovcr-rc||anccon | l I tbc0 modds, and | ZI ro|csIor s|ng|c-so|tcard
comb|nat|ons, so as to movc b|m onward to app||cat|on oI| JI tbc 0 psto
odds, and|4I wbo|c-bandana|ys|s. Attbcvcn|cast,wccanstrcss tbatqoot|ng
probab|||t|cs to two dcc|ma| p|accs g|vcs tbc wrong |mprcss|on oIbow mocb
accoracycanbattr|botcdtotbcm. Inapmct|ca|scnsc,tbc|raccuracydcpcnds
on tbc assompt|ons |ncorpratcd |n tbc matbcmat|ca| modc|s to wb|cb tbcy
app|y. As morc |s |camcd abot a g|vcn dca| hom tbc b|dd|ng and p|ay, tbc
Iartbcroncsboo|d movchom | l I and | ZI towards| JI and |4I. Tbc Io||ow|ng
cbaptcrstc||tbcrcadcrbowtoaccomp||sbtb|schcct|vc|yattbcbr|dgctab|c.
CHAPTER2
LMU1lUN, LUUlL,NDdUWWLDLLlDL
Eac|ojoutmjot'cmot|om|smtcs'tcsu|tshomtum|ngcctm|n
tcsoutccsonu|||ctum|ngcctm|not|ctsohand0mc|angngsomc
uaysoutHa|mac|avc.
- Marv|nM|nsky| l 9Z7- I |nTmEmot|onMm||nc| Z0I
cIorc wccons|dcrprobab|||ty|ntbcp|ayoItbccards |ndcta||,wcsboo|d ta|k
aboottbcbroadcrprob|cmoIbowoncan|vcsatdcc|s|ons. Mostbr|dgcp|aycrs
opcratc |n tb|s contcxt w|tbootIcc||ngagrcat dcs|rc to so|vc cqoat|ons, so wc
havc to cons|dcr wbat tbcy arc do|ng |nstcad. To do tb|s, wc go to tbc most
advanccdtbcor|csonboman tboogbtprocsscsasIormo|atcdbycxpcnswork|ng
|ntbchc|d.
5cvcra|daysa wcck, a roomm|oIscn|orc|t|tcnsoI|cga||ysoondm|ndgct
togctbcr at my |oa| br|dgc c|ob to p|ay Zboards. n|y vcn rarc|y do tbcy
a||arr|vcattbcsamccontractona g|vcndca|andcvcntbcntbcscqocnccsoI
p|ay arc ncvcr matcbcd tbroogboot tbc rom. Wbat docs tbat tc|| os' Irom
thc ootsct, tbcrc |snoconscnsoson bow to b|d and p|ay a dca|. Wby |s tbat
so' Ianly bccaosc tbc act|ons at cacb tab|c dcpcnd to a grcat cxtcnt on tbc
cmot|ona|rcact|onsoItbc|nd|v|doa|p|aycrs. Wccanana|ytctbcrcso|ts|ok|ng
ata||Ioorbands,bottbcana|ys|swon'tmakccomp|ctcscnscon|csswctakc|nto
accoontbowcmot|onsaroondtbctab|cp|aycdapan.
TbcqootcattbcstanoItb|scbaptcr|shom Man|n M|nsky, ap|onccr
|ntbcdcvc|opmcntoIAn|hc|a| Intc|||gcncc. Hcandotbcrs, |ntbc|rattcmpts
tomakccompotcrs tb|nk ||kc os, bavcdcvc|opcd a modcm tbconoIbowoor
bra|ns work. Tbc|r v|cw |s tbat onc cannot scparatc cmot|ons hom tbc way
wc rcason, tbc boman capac|ty Ior cmot|ona| rcsponsc |s cvcr prcscnt |n m||
potcnt|a|. Ahcra||,wcnccdtorcact |nst|nct|vc|y |nordcrtobab|ctojomp
ootoItbcwaywbcn somconcsp|||sbotcohcc|noord|rcct|on. Ina|cssobv|oos
way, oorcmot|onsp|ay a pan |noortboogbtprocsscswbcn wc tack|c br|dgc
prob|cms. Tbc way wc tb|nk cvo|vcs hom a sopprcss|on oIccna|n cmot|ons,
|cav|ngotbcrcmot|onshccrtocngagc|ntbcdcc|s|on-mak|ngprocss.
How|stb|sacb|cvcd' HcrcIsba|||ntcmrcthcc|ywbattbc MITproIcssors
tc|| os. Tbcrc |sa Iac|||ty |ntbc bra|n tbat acts as a contro||croIcmot|ons, a
'Cr|t|c' |n M|nsky's tcrm|no|ogy, w|tb tbrcc rccogn|tab|c componcnts. It bas
bccn dcvc|op|ng hom car|y days |J0 m||||on bI to tbc prcscnt, so wc owc
oorbra|ns,aswc||asotbcrbo||ypans,toooranccston. Wbcnyoos|tdownat
Cmpm2 l Emam,Lg.aMHmwe Decm l l 9l
the bridge table, you do not si t alone - your ancestors, who have contributed
throughout the eons to thcstroctorcoIyour brain, sit with you. | shall denote
these ancestors asthcYAKs: 'Your Ancestral Kibitzers'. Te YAKs give advice
oIagcncra|natorcastbcyarcnotadept at playing the game -which doesn't
mean thcydon'tbavcanop|n|on. Tb|s |swbat tbcymay be tel l ing you asyou
sc|cctyooropcn|ng|cadaga|nstJNT
funmon
Censure
Correct
Suppress
0nemI0uIdonce
Stay i n the cave
Run fr the hi l l s
Do what the others do
8ddgeImnsIodon
Stopl Top of Nothi ng.
Gol Get active.
Waitl Fourth Highest.
ImcUgbt
Red
Green
Amber
Isuspccttbatthcvastmajor|tyoIourIorcbcanarcasscmb|cdundcrtbcAmbcr
catcgon. Dop||catcbr|dgcwasmadcIorthcm. AhcrIa|||ngtotakcm||advantagc
oItbc ||c oItbccards, thcsc typcs maycommcnt as tbcyopcn thc scorcsbccts,
'Notsogod,botIsuspcctwc'||havc|otsoIcompany -ycs,actoa||y,somcwcnt
downtwo.'
Whcrcdosprobab|||tythconcomc|ntoa||th|s'It|saqocst|onoI astract|on
vcrsostmct|on. byth|nk|ngabstract|yabotthcpos|t|onoItbccardsaroond
tbc tab|c, onc d|stanccs a dcc|s|on hom pcnona| conccms, socb as anx|cty or
opt|m|sm, tbus rcdoc|ngtbc|rchccts. nc's anccston can't comp|a|nas mocb
|Ia Ia||cd hncssc had a O% cbancc oIsocccss. Frobab|||ty acts to ovcrcomc
Icarand modcratc |ntu|t|on. nc sospccts tbat thc cxpcrts, wbo arc tbc most
ana|yt|ca|,arctbconcswbobavctbcbstcontm| ovcrtbc|rcmot|ons. 5o|ct's
cons|dcrwbycvcncxpcr|cnccdp|aycrsgowrong.
Where Do Bl unders Come From?
wctcmomat|sc, knou|cdcojtca||ngcublkd oh.
- cnMastcrHuang|ong| l OOZ- l O9I
cnat tbc tab|c |tsccms tbat a b|undcr basoconcdootoInowbcrc. Wby
|s tbat ' Tbc grcat Howard 5cbcnkcn kncw that wbcn |t comcs to dcc|s|on-
mak|ng,cmot|on|stbccvcr-prcscnttbrcat,andadv|scdp|aycntosopprcsstbc|r
cmot|ons. Tbatwastbco|dv|cw.
Tbcmodcmv|cwoItbcro|ccmot|onsp|ay|sc|oscrtotbc v|cwoIanc|cnt
Cb|ncsccnMastcrstban|t|stotbctrad|t|ona|Wcstcmv|cwoIacon0|ctw|tb
Kcason. Toay, tbc conscnsus |s that onc sboo|dn't stmgg|c aga|nst cmot|ons
homwb|cb bnchts may dcr|vc. Lmot|onsarc ||kc tbc Iorcc oIa r|vcrwc arc
tn|ngtonav|gatc|nacano. It|sbttcrtopadd|cdownstrcamus|ngtbcIorcc
oItbcwatcrasana|d ratbcr tbantostmgg|copstrcamaga|nst|t,botoncsboo|d
| Z0 I me, Pom|||aMInjm
never let the river take control -that leads to upsets. This is neatly expressed in
the advice ' It's okay to have butterfl ies, as long as they are flying in formation. '
Experts speak of a certain happy state of mi nd as being ' i n the zone' . This i s
a ti me when correct decisions come easily without apparent efort. There are no
distractions and solutiom spring quickly to mi nd. However, a player in the zone
is not feeling robotic. It is not an emotionless condi tion, but one of happiness
with feelings of general well-being. Pre-game nerves are under control, and the
player has channeled the extra adrenal i ne into being alen and on top of his
game - the butteries are fying i n formation. There are other ti mes when
nothing comes easily and the choices made are often inferior. This is a time of
frustration and confict, a t ime to fall back on general principles and attempt
to give nothing away. Don't struggle against the stream of emotion: there may
be some unresolved issues that are causing a debate within your brain that has
nothing to do with the action at the table. Clear the mind and convi nce yourself
that here is where you want to be and this is what you want to be doing at this
particular ti me.
I t may be necessar to form habits of disengagement fom one's natural
inclinations. To i l l ustrate this point, let's take an example fom recent play at my
local dupl icate cl ub with the usual cast of characters. The ocasion is the Z07
WBF Charity Pairs.
&busbko
4 K 9 7
<; K 2
J 8 7 4 3
+ K Q 8
e Nsmr
J 8 2
<; AJ 7 6 3
1 0 6 5
J 1 0
D
wm kogIon
4 A Q
<; 1 0 9 8 5 4
A K Q 2
4 2
8ddgb
1 0 6 5 4 3
<; Q
9
+ A 9 7 6 5 3
South opened a Precision l< and I raised to 4<, shutti ng out East-West fom a
makeable contract of J4. West chose to attack with the +K, ovenaken by East,
who retured the . Thi s would have worked well if West could have won to
lead a diamond back for a mh, not a highly likely possibility. In fact, East had
given declarer a chance to make his contract -a chance his emotional state was
not going to let hi m seize.
Cmp l cmm, Lg.aMHouwe Decme I Z l |
When the dummy came down, my partner gave me the same resigned look
of disapproval the real Lord Raglan, commander-in-chief during the Crimean
War, might have given LordCard|ganas he retured from leading the Charge of
thcL|ghtBr|gadc. I coo|drcadb|stboogbtsasif he had spoken tbcma|ood'5|r,
voobavcovcr-comm|ttcdvoormcagcrrcsoorccstoa|ostcaosc. A b|dof Zwas
qo|tccnoogbIor tbcporposcsoIrcconna|ssancc,Io||owcdbvanadvancctotbc
tbrcc-|cvc||Itbatwcrcdccmcdprodcnt.'
W|tbtb|sbackgroundtoh|sth|nk|ng,dcc|arcrwasdoomcd. A bcarttotbc
accatTr|ckJandahncsscIorthcKqu|ck|y|cdtodownonc.
'Yoo know, I cou|dhavcmadcthat,'rcmarkcdKag|anw|thbc|atcd|ns|gbt
asb|sbottomscorcwasbc|ngrccordcd. 'I|ntIc||m|natcthcd|amonds, tbcn I
throwWcst|nw|ththc.'
Hcwasr|gbt oIcoonc- to |atcIor |t tohc|p. WbcnLstIo||owcd to
tbcA w|th tbc,bc||ssboo|dhavcmng|nthc b||TowcroItbc Frcparcd
M|nd,cspcc|a||voncbo||thom tbc mbb|coIhundmds oIdcstrovcdstonc-co|d
contracts||kctb|sonc. Nodoubtthcpca|oIbc||swcntunbccdcd,|ost|ntbcd|n
oIAnccstra|Vo|ccs.
Wbcn Last droppcd thc undcr thc A, dcc|amr's tboogbts sboo|d
bavctomcdtotbc Fr|nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc. Tb|stc||susthatWcstnow
|s mocb morc ||kc|y to bo|d tbc K, as w|tb both tbc K and tbc , Last
coo|dbavc p|avcdc|tbcr. F|ac|ngWcst w|tb tbcK soggcsts |mmcd|atc|v tbc
c||m|nat|onand cndp|av tbatstarcs dcc|arcr |ntbcIacc. A |ow d|amond hom
tbcdommvconhmstbcpos|t|onw|tbootcost,anda||gossmotb|vhomtbcrc
asapotcnt|a|bottom |stomcd |ntoatop.
Lcoorsc,|t|sa|wavscasvtomanuIactorcava||drcasontobackonc'snatura|
|nc||nat|ontocn. Lastbassbownopw|tbas|ng|ctond|amondandas|ng|cton
bcart,sotbcoddsgrcat|vIavorbcrbo|d|ngtbcK,jost|h|ngtbchncssc. Tbat|s
tmc,botamcrc .Jprobab|||tv|sncvcrasgodasasorcth|ng.
Lcoorsc,tbcdcIcnsc bad s||ppcd opa|so. Tmc tobcranccstra|po|and
cons|stcntw|tbbcrdcs|rctotakcact|on, br|dg|tjompcdata s||mcbanccIor a
top board. IIWcst |s a||owcd tobo|d tbc hnt tr|ck, tbcn tbc + can bc oscd
at Tr|ck Z | ratbcr tban tbc 4ZI to s|gna| sobt|v tbat a spadc rctom woo|d bc
wc|comc. Lastovcrtakcsand|cadsaspadc. Tbc|ncrcasc|n|njmt|on|nbcrcnt
|n tbc sccond c|ob|cad |swbat |snccdcd toacb|cvc, w|tboot a gocss, tbc bcst
rcso|tposs|b|condcrtbcc|rcomstanccs. vcrtak|ngand p|av|ng a d|amond at
Tr|ckJwoo|dbavcbccncqoa||vIata|totbcdcIcnsc,so|twasnottbcovcrtak|ng
pctbatwastbcprob|cm,|twastbccbo|ccoIsw|tcb.
| ZZ l me,PomaMInjm
Luck, Chance and Design
In the fel of observation,
Chnce favms only the pepared mind.
- Loo|s Iastcor|I BZZ-I B9I
'You see, Waron, but you dnot observe. '
-5bcr|ockHo|mcs|nAScandl in Bohemi,
5|rArtborConanDov|c| I B59- I 9JOI
t|dgcbandsarcdca|tatrandom. Tb|sc|cmcntoIonccrta|ntv|n0ocnccssomc
p
|avcrs |nto tb|nk|ng tbat tbc rcso|ts oI cach dca| arc somchow dctcm|ncd
|atgc|vbv|ock. Iorcxamp|c, |natcamgamcwbcrcJNT|sthccontmctatbth
tab|cs,tbcrcso|tmavbcdctcrm|ncdbvtbcopcn|ng|cad,so|tmavbc|mportant
wb|cbp|avcr|sdcc|arcr.Tbcbc||cI|stbatgodorbadrcsu|tsohcnhavcmorcto
dow|tbtbcopponcnts'act|onstbanw|thoorown.
I do not sobscr|bc to th|scbaot|c v|cwoIbr|dgc. Ycs,thcrc|sanc|cmcnt
oICbancc |n tbc gamc, and cmot|onsohcn |ntcncnc, but wc cannot |ct th|s
p
o|sonoorapproach. TbcrcmarksmadcbvIastcurandHo|mcsarcappropr|atc
to anv rcason|ng procss. Itdos not mattcr whctbcr voo arc th|nk|ng aboot
sc|cnt|hccxpcr|mcnts,dctcct|onorcard p|av. thc m|nd mustb rcadv top|acc
thcobscnat|ons|ntoa w|dcrcontcxt. Youmavsccandnotcthccardsasthcy
a
ppcararoondthctab|c,botun|cssyoucanmakcuscoIthoscobscnat|onsw|th|n
somcmorcgcncra|organ|tcdwayoIth|nk|ng,voo m|ssthc|rs|gn|hcancc. Tbc
m|nd mostbcprcpamdtosccthcaJvantagcsthat m|ght rcso|t homaprobab|c
||coItbcrcma|n|ngcams. It|saqocst|onoIbav|nganopcnm|ndanda0cx|b|c
appmacb.
Lock |s pcrsona| whcrcas Cbancc |s not. I ||kc to bc||cvc tbat whatcvcr
|ocktbcrc|s||cs|nthcd|str|bot|onoIthccardsand|t|sthctaskoItbcp|avcn
to takc advantagc oI |t. Wc most dcvc|op thc tcchn|qocs and rccogn|tc thc
o
p
porton|t|cs. Th|s|sbstdoncthrooghanundcntand|ngoIhowCbanccp|avs
|ts rcgo|atcd part - that |s, wc havc tograsptbc mndamcnta|soIIrobab|||tv
1corvand|tscxtcns|on,InIomat|onThcon.
Asbcg|nncn,wca||somct|mcsmakcp|avstbat tumouttobconcxpcctcd|v
bcn
chc|a|. Notscc|ngmochhopcIorsocccss,wcp|avoha|ongso|tmorc|nan
atmospbcrcoIcmbanassmcntthanoIopt|m|sm,andd|scovcrtbatooropponcnts
bavconaccountab|yd|scardcdthc|rw|nncn. bvacc|dcnt,wcbavccxccotcdoor
hrstsqocctc. I|ntt|mc|ucky,botcanwcrcpcatthcprocssonsomcmtorcdca| '
II
wc
do so bv dcs|gn, can wc st||| attr|botc oorgod rcsu|t to Lock' No, wc
conc|odcthatthcsubscqocntrcsu|twasobta|ncdbvcxtract|ngtbc|ock|nbcrcnt
|n
tbc||coIthccards.
Lct'ssccas|mp|ccxamp|cwhcrcdcc|arcrhada||thcc|ocsncccssantotakc
tbcw|nn|ngact|on. As|thappcncd,hcIa||cdtocxtracttbcgod|ocktbatwas
Cmm2 l Emm,Lg,HmweDeo l ZJ !
available to him because hi s mind was not prepared. This can happen on any
given day in any given bridge club, but on this occasion i t was repored on a
Bridge Base Online ( BBO) broadcast of the ZOO6 DngMing Knockout Team
|nShanghai .
The Gods Love the Odds
Iam a geat believe in luk, an Ifn t hrd Iwok
t moe Ihve of it.
- 5tcphcnLcacok| l B9- l 91OI
Thc br|dgc gods|ovcthcoddsandthoscwhop|aybythcm,butthcgodcsscs
|ovcthcdar|ngoncswhocangctthcmsc|vcs|nandoutoIat|ghtspt. Toohcn
wcarcto|atvortod|stmctcd totakcm||advantagcoIthc s||mchanccthcsc
d|v|nc|ovc||csahordus.
NS Vul 0u
J 9
V K J 1 0 8 4
< Q 8 2
J 8 7
Uu Zhang
. Q
D
1 0 8 5 4 3
v Q 7 6 V 9 5 3
< A 9 6 < 7 4
4 A K 1 0 5 4 2 9 6 3
Fu
A K 7 6 2
V A 2
< K J 1 0 5 3
+ Q
Uu 0u Zbong Fu
1 NT pass 2C* pass
2. pass pss dbl
pass 3C pss 3NT
db | al l pass
nccWcststartsw|tha0awcdI NT,thcauct|onproccdsw|ththc|ncv|tab|||ty
oIa Grcck tragcdv, thc bbcommcntaton act|ng as thc Choms Iomcast|ng
l Z4 ! me,PomInjm
d|sastcr. Mortb-5ootbcanmakc0cas||v, bottbcvarcb|ownohcoorsc, |and|ng
ontbcrockvsborcsoIJMT
Wcst bcg|ns bv p|av|ng c|obs hom tbc top, v|c|d|ng a tr|ck |n tbc so|t to
dcc|arcr.Tbcb|dd|ngbas|nd|catcdtbatWcstbo|dsa||tbcdcIcndcrs'b|gbcards,
|nc|od|ngtbc0Aasancntntotbcrcma|n|ngc|obw|nncrs. Mcanwb||c,cvcn
|Ibcartsbcbavc, dcc|arcrsccms to bavc on|v c|gbt tr|cks w|tboot p|av|ng on
d|amonds. Ycs,tbccontractbas||tt|cbopc,botmostIog|vcop' To ohcnwc
dcspa|randspomtbcgoddcsscs'g|hs.
Wbat arc tbc c|ocstbatsboo|dg|vcr|sc to a sosp|c|on tbat a|| |snot as |t
sccms' Amajorc|oc|stbatLasttransIcncdtospadcs,prom|s|nghvc,wbcntbcrc
arc on|v s|x spadcsbc|dbv tbcdcIcndcn. T|s Iactwoo|dbavccomctom|nd
rcad||v |Idcc|arcr bad root|nc|vcoontcd tbc s|dcs. 7-7-B-1 and --5-9. Tbc
s|toat|onmavappcarasncarbopc|cssasmakcsnod|hcrcncc,bot|tcostsnotb|ng
to|avdowntbcAbcIorcp|av|ngond|amonds -and|o,tbc4 Ia||ss|ng|cton
homtbcbandoItbcp|avcrwhoopcncd INTl
AsWcst|smarkcdw|tbthc ,dcc|arcrcannowsoccccdbvcasb|ngtbcj,
tbcnrctom|ngtobandw|thtbcA, |av|ngdownthcKandhncss|ng|nbcarts
togatbcrn|nctr|cksw|tboottoocb|ngd|amonds. Mak|ngJNTwoo|dbavcbcn
a tr|ompb, bot, a|as,dcc|arcrb||nd|vacccptcd h|s Ia||orcbv |cad|ngad|amond
homtbcdommvatTr|ck1,|os|ng l1 IMFs|ntbcprocss. Atragcdv,tbcn,bot
onctbatcoo|dbavcbcnavo|dcd.
5omcobscncnmavwondcr |Ianv|cssonscanb dcr|vcdhomootcomcs
|nwb|cbdob|oosact|onsp|avcdsocba|argcpart. Tbcscs|toat|onsar|scata||
|cvc|soIp|avhomtbcwor|dcbamp|onsb|psdowntotbc|oa||cvc|. Tbcvmost
bc dca|t w|tb. Dpartorcs hom norma|cv can work |n btb d|rcct|ons, as tbc
abvcdca| |||ostratcs. Tboscwbokccpaco|hcadandactaccord|ngtosoond
pr|nc|p|csarcbttcrcqo|ppdtocopc.
I s Bri dge a Science?
W you can meaure what you are speaking abut , and exess it in
nums , you know something abut it; but when you cnnot meaure
it, when you cannot exess it in nums , your knowle uof a
mcand unatisfat kind; it my b t bginning of knowlde,
but you have scrcely, in your thougt, advanced K t ste of science.
- LordKc|v|n| I BZ1- I 9O7I
Manv br|dgc cxpcns bavc cxprcsscd tbc op|n|on tbat br|dgc |s not a sc|cncc.
Ccrta|n|v,br|dgc|sa||abotnombnanda|tboogb |t|stroctbatbr|dgcb|dd|ng
and
p|av arc notcxactprocsscs,tbatdos not m|c tbcmoot as bc|ngsobjcct
to tbc ro|cs tbat govcm unccrta|ntv - |n part|cu|ar, tbc |aws oIprobab|||tv.
Cmm2 I Emm, Lg, aMHmweDecm l Z5 |
Sc|cnt|hc tbcory prov|Jcs osw|tbmodc|soIooron|vcrsc, tbc oscm|ncss oItbc
modc|s bc|ng rc|atcd to tbc dcgrcc to wb|cb tbcy can prcJ|ct mtorc cvcnts.
Tbc accoracy oIa modc| oIabr|dgcgamcdcpcndson tbc cxtcnt to wb|cb |t
|ncomoratcsdcta||sconccm|ngtbconccrta|ntyoItbcproccsscs.Tbcrc|sa||m|t
towbatcanbcacb|cvcdattbcbr|dgctab|cw|tboottbcoscoIacompotcr, and
past tbcorct|ca| moc|s havc bccn to s|mp|c to prov|dc cons|stcnt|y accoratc
rcso|ts. It|spss|b|cto|mag|nccomp|cxmodc|smnn|ngonmodcmcompotcrs
tbatcanvcnc|osc|y approx|matcwhatwcobscncatthcbr|dgc tab|c. Asw|tb
a|| homanmcnta| act|v|ty, a||owanccs most b madcIor cnors, bot tbatdocs
not m|c oot thc gamc 3 a sc|cncc. Asp|aycrs, oormk |s toobscnc wbat |s
happcn|ngand thcntoapp|y3 accumtca modc|3 wccantothcs|toat|onat
band, hop|ng Ior socccss |n an unccrta|n cnv|ronmcnt |n wh|cb many Iactors
p|ayaro|c.
I Z I mc,Pnan Injm
CHAPTER3
|HLLUNLLP|U| PkUbb| L| |Y
Tmtheor of pobabilities is baically only common sene reduced R
a calcultion. It mes one estimte accuratly what Tightminded people
feel b a sort of intinct, oftn without being abl Rgve a reaon fo it.
F|crrc5|monMarqo|sdcLap|acc| I 719 I BZ7I
Stock markct -opordown' Wcckcnd - wct ordn' QoccnoIspadcs ~
hncsscordrop' Thcscarcj ostaIcwoIthcunccrta|nt|csthatg|vcosda||ypaosc.
A|tboogbthcrcarcnogoarantccs,mostwoo|dagrccthattbcmorc|nIormat|on
wcosc,tbcmorcaccuratcthcprcd|ct|on|s||kc|ytobc.
Lct's|okatIorccast|ng thc wcathcr, a|ways a top|c oI|ntcrcst. A s|mp|c
p
tcd|ctor|stoassomcthatthcwcathcrtomonoww|||bctbcsamcas|t|stoday.
|ookootoItbcw|ndowandthcrc'syoorprcd|ct|on. ThcIarmcr|nthchc|dcan
Jobcttcrthanthat. HchasobscncdwhathasoconcdovcrthcpastIcwdays
andcanIo||owthc trcnd. YcanoIcxpr|cnccandathrobb|ng|nh|sjo|nts |n
tcs
p
onsctomp|dchangcs|nthcatmosphcr|cprcssorcbackh|sprcd|ct|on. Thc
most soph|st|catcd ana|ys|s comcs hom thc wcathcr scn|cc, wh|ch goardcd|y
annoonccsa 5O%probab|||tyoIprcc|p|tat|on. Kca||y' 5O%' Taxpaycnhavc
p
ot m||||onsoIdo||an|ntoacompotcrsystcmthatana|ytcsdatahomthoosands
oI scnson os|ng thc bcst atmosphcr|c modc| ava||ab|c |n ordcr to an|vc at a
p
tcd|ct|on, and a|| wcgct |sa 5O5Otossop' Isn't |t bcttcr to 0|p a co|n, and
p
ot tbc moncy back |ntothc taxpaycn'pokcts' No, actoa||y |t |sn't, bccaosc
tbc tbcorct|ca| atmosphcr|c modc| systcmat|ca||y takcs |nto accoont a|| thc
know|cdgcthat|sconcnt|yava||ab|c. IIthcrcso|tsarc|nconc|us|vc,b|amc thc
wcatbcr,notthcprcd|ctor. br|dgc|s||kc that. pota||thct|mc,moncyandchort
|n
toprc
d|ct|onthatyou ||kc, bot att|mcs|tw|||st|||comcdown toaco|n0|p.
No
nctb
c|css,thcmorc|nIomat|ononccanmakcoscoI,thcmorc||kc|y|t|sthat
tbcprcd|ct|onw|||provcaccumtcw|th|nanappropr|atcdcgrccoIonccrta|nty.
At
thc br|dgctab|c, thc cqo|va|cntto'|ok|ngootoIthc w|ndow' |s tak|ng
a||
tbchncsscsw|thootmuchthooghtastohowoncso|trc|atcstoanothcr. At
Cmpm3 I TmComeptojFrom||| I Z 7 I
matchpoi nts, a wi nni ng fnesse not taken often converts to a had score, so thi s
approach i s not as fri volous as i t appears. The hridge-playi ng 'farmer i n the feld'
has a long-term plan hased on the 0p
o
r odds, hut he tends to carry out the plan
wi thout much fexi hi | i ty. The 'weatherman' has a prhahi l i ty model he fol lows as
hcco||ccts|nIormat|on|omaounJthctab|c,anJthe 'expert forecaster' carr|cs
th|soncstcp|urthcranJaJj ustsaccorJ|ngto' |oca|conJ|ti ons' .
|robab|||ty|saquant|tythatcx|sts|nthcwonJcr|u| world of mathematics.
Thccxtcnttowb|chprobab|||ty|suscm|JcpcnJsonhowc|osc|ythcthcorct|ca|
assompt|ons oItbc moJc|matcbcond|t|ons |n tbc rca|wor|J. At thc br|Jgc
tab|c,tbcmatcb|sratbcrgood,asonc|sdca||ngw|tbtbchn|tcwor|Jo|h|ty-two
carJs. |nIact,probab|||tytbcorywasdcvc|opcd|ntbc I 7tbccnturytocstab||sb
gam|ngoJJs. Kccp|nm|ndasyoorcadontbat|t|scas|crtotcacbprobab|||tyto
abr|Jgcp|aycrtban|t|stotcacbbr|dgctoamatbcmat|c|an.
A grcat bcncht oItb|nk|ng abootcardp|ay |n tcrms o|probab|||ty |s that
onccan app|ystroctorc to onc's tb|nk|ng, and matbcmat|cs |s notb|ng |Inot
stroctorcd |n |tsapproacb. Matb |stbcc|osctorgan|:crIor tbcbra|n. Ascacb
ncwIact|sacqo|rcd, |t|sp|accdncxttotbcotbcrrc|cvantIactstobcrccovcrcJ
asnccJcd. Ncat ! Tbcrc|saspaccbctwccntbccars|nwb|cbtostorcawaywbat
basbccnobscrvcdattbcbr|dgc tab|c, sooscm||tcmscanbcacccsscd w|tb casc
asrcqo|rcJ. bvcrydca|bas|tsb|story.
|robab|||tyapp| |cdtodcc|arcrp|ay|nvo|vcs| |tt|cmorctbanorgan|:|ngonc's
tbougbtsaround acoonto|cardcomb|nat|ons. Tbcrc |sa tccbn|qoc|nvo|vcJ,
wb|cbwcsba||cxp|orc, bot ma|n|y|t|samattcroIacomm|tmcnttocoont|ng.
Tbca|mo|tb|scdort|stomakccbo|ccstbatconIormtotbcmost||kc|ys|tuat|on
at tbc t|mc o|tbc dcc|s|on. Wcstart w|tb a prcd|ct|on bascd on wbat can bc
cxpcctcJ abcad o|t|mc |n astatco|a tota| |ack oI|nIormat|on. Tb|s takcs thc
|ormoItbcso-ca||cda priori . Asp|ayprogrcsscs,wcmostba|anccwbatwc
bavcJ|scovcrcdaga|nstwbat wascxpcctcd. A ncwprobab|||ty |scrcatcd bascd
ontbcsubscqucntknow|cdgc acqo|rcd tbat takcs tbcJcs|gnat|ono|a posteriori
oJJs. L|t|matc|y,obscrvat|onprcva||sovcrcxpcctat|on tbca piori odJsgoop
|nsmokc. A|| cnJs |nccrta|nty.
Mathemati cs and Bri dge
Crafty men condemn studies , simple men amire them,
and wise men ue them.
S|rFranc|sacon| I I - I ZI
r|Jgc |sagamcbascdonnombcrs,sobyand |argc |t||csw|tb|ntbcJoma|no|
matbcmat|cs. Nombcrs |ntbcIormoIHC|arc oscd tocva|uatc tbc potcnt|a|
I 28 I Bre , Probility aMInfotion
Ior tak|ng tr|cks. Thc prcJ|ct|ons bascJ on HCP a|onc arc somct|mcs gooJ,
somct|mcs baJ, JcpcnJ|ng on othcr conJ|t|ons, noncthc|css, p|aycrs usc HCP
asaconvcn|cntJcscr|ptoraswc| | asa start|ng po|nt. thcrnumbcrsarcoItcn
banJ|cJabout, ||kc' |os|ngtr|ckcount'anJ'tota|tr|cks'. Thc|rprcJ|ct|vcva|uc
|svar|ab|canJoItcnopentoqucst|on,yctwhcnonep|aycrta|kstoanothcr,a
ccrta|nqua||tyoIthc banJs |nvo|vcJ|scxprcsscJnumcr|ca||y.
Count|ngcarJsJur|ngthcp|ayy|c|Jsconcrctcnumbcrsw|thoutamb|gu|ty.
Thc a|m |s to usc thc carJ countIorchoos|ng thc bcst opt|on on tbc bas|soI
probab|||t|cs. |nh|s book Probabilities in Everdy Life, pub| |shcJ |n I 9B,jobn
D. McGcrvcywrotcasIo||owsaboutbr|JgcanJprobab|||ty.
Bridge i s an easy game. There is no house percentage to beat, and you can
choose the bid or play that give you the best odds. The opponents can do
that too, but these are the same people who give a big edge away to loHeries,
racetracks, casi nos, and bookies. Why shoul dn't they be generous to you,
too?
Bridge probabi l ities are si mpler than those of blackjack . . . You can see to
of the four hands and your most common problem is to determi ne whether
a specific unseen card, say the queen of spades, i s on your lef or on your
right.
That|s rcassur|ng|ys|mp|c,butnotcvcryoncagrccs. jobn bcdcr, |nThinkng
About IMPs, ccbocs tbc pb||osopbcr N|ct:scbc |n b|sstatcmcnt 'Matbcmat|cs
|s thccxcuscthat|oscnrcsort to |ntbcpostmortcm'. |rcsumab|yhcrcIcrs to
probab|||t|cs,nottocardcoonts. Nonctbc|css,tbcana|ys|s|nb|sbok|sm||oI
pcrccntagcs. For cxamp|c, bcrcIcrs to a por s|amasonc bav|ng a cbanccoI
succcssbctwccn4I %to49%andarcasonab|cs|amasoncbctwccnO%to9%.
That I%J|dcrcnccbctwccn'por'|49%Iand'rcasonab|c'| O%I|mp||csagrcat
Jca| oIIa|tb |n bc|ng ab|c to ca|co|atc probab|||t|cs to tb|s Jcgrcc oIaccuracy.
| Jon't bc||cvc |t can bc donc, bccausc sucb accoracy rcqo|rcs a grcat dca| oI
ccrta|n know|cdgc. IIonc m|soscs matbcmat|cs, |t |s not surpr|s|ng tbat onc
bcg|nsto|oscIa|tb|n| tsot|||ty. G|vcnb|scxprcsscdatt|toJc,|twou|dbcmorc
appropr|atcIorbcdcrtoadoptbbHamman'sd|ctom'A gods|am|sonctbat
makcs', and |cavc |t at tbat w|tboot rcsort|ngto pscudo-nomcr|ca| trcatmcnts
that arc |mpract|ca|. Howdocsoncj uJgc attbc tab|c tbata potcnt|a|s|am |s
on|y4%probab|candsonotwortbb|dd|ng'
|t |s undcntandab|c tbat cvcn god p|aycrs may rc|y on tab|c Icc| ratbcr
than an objcct|vc approacb bascd on probab|||ty, as thc subjcct bas not bccn
wc||trcatcd |n tbc past. swa|djacoby, oncoItbc a||-t|mcbr|Jgcgrcats, was
an cxpcrton comb|nator|cs, bav|ngbccn a codc brcakcrdur|ng WII, yctbc
c|a|mcJtbattbcbardcsttb|ngtotcacbbr|dgcp|aycrswasprobab|||ty. Hctr|cd|t
CmpmJ l Th ComeptojFomi| | Z9 |
|na 1 947 bookcnt|t|cdHow to Figre th J. ]acobykncw b|ssobjcctaswc||
asanybr|Jgcp|aycr,botbcst|||cncoontcrcdd|mco|t|csgctt|ngtbc|dcasacmss.
Wby' ncrcason was tbat tbc tb|nk|ngat tbc t|mc wasboondopw|tbtbca
mm odds, tbat |stosaytbc oddsca|co|atcdIor tbcdca||ngoItbccardsbcIorc
anytb|ng|sknownoItbcpart|co|arband tbatbasbccndca|t.
Anotbcrattcmpttoconcct Iao|tyth|nk|ngappcarcd |ntbc ctobcr I9I
|ssocoITmBre wmU. Tbcart|c|c,cnt|t|cd'br|dgcFrobab|||t|cs',wasactoa||y
wr|ttcn by a proIcssoroImathcmat|cs, L. D. D|v|nsky. LnIortunatc|y, |tst|||
conta|nsmanystatcmcntsthatarcm|s|cad|ng|nthc|rgcncm|swccpandmcrc|y
addtothcconms|on. Iorcxamp|c,'Frobab|||t|csdonotchangcw|ththcp|ayoI
thccards. . . on|y thc0 mmoddsmattcr.' Th|s |ss|mp|ywong-probab|||t|cs
changc w|th cacb card p|aycd. Latcr, 'Lch roond m|csoot ccna|n cmcs and
thos g|vcs os |nIomat|on wh|ch wc d|d not havc bIorc. Thc probab|||t|cs do
notchangc...' Isth|sposs|b|c' 5orc|yprobab|||t|csm0cctunccrta|nty,wh|ch|s
rcdoccdbythcadd|t|onoI|nIormat|on.
It|sbcttcrtocstab||sh thcconcctbm|sIor ca|cu|at|ngprobab|||t|csmthcr
thantoargocaga|nstthcmanyIa|scconccptsthatonccncoontcn|nthcbr|dgc
||tcmtorc, bot |t may bc worthwh||c to cons|dcronc cxamp|c to |||ustmtchow
carcm|oncmostbcwhcn|tcomcstovagocamomcntsthatappcarathntg|ancc
tobc rcasonab|c. 5omcycarsago, awor|dchamp|onjust|hcdhcrdcc|amr p|ay
w|thanargomcntthatwcntsomcth|ng||kcth|s. 'AhcrmyLHshowcdupw|th
thc4A,natora||yIp|aycdIorthc Atob|nthcothcrhand'. Thcprobab|||ty
oItbcdca| |sthatanytwog|vcn cardsarc morc ||kc|ytobp|accd |nd|hcrcnt
hands than |n thc samc hand, howcvcr, oncc thc4A wmIoond to b hc|d by
LH, thcprobab|||tyoIthc |oat|onoIthcA dcpcndcdonhowmanyhcam
wcrc hc|d |ncachband. IILHwcrcIoondtoho|d mospadcsandKHIoor
spadcs, |twoo|dbcmorcprobab|cthatLHhc|dmorchcans,andhcnccmorc
probab|c tbat thc A woo|d bIoondamongthcm. It hmnoth|ngtodow|th
thcrankoItbccards|nvo|vcd.
Itwasn't ont|| I 9O thatTcrcnccKccsc|nTh EnG |pub||shcd as
MmFUy|ntbcL5AIIamoos|yprcscntcdthc Fr|nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcdCho|cc,
wh|ch dca|t w|th how probab|||t|cs changc w|th thc p|ay oI thc cams. Thc
conccpt had bccndcscr|bcd car||cr by A|anTmscott, |tbcamc thc sobjcctoI
mochspcco|at|onandapr|tcwmohcmdtoanyoncwhocoo|dcxp|a|n|tc|car|y.
Kccscmayhavcthoogbth|scxpos|t|onm|sscdthcmarkmhcobscncd'amomcnts
oIth|ssortcanbcconms|ng'. Hcc|ongtothcnot|onthatoncnccdnotdomorc
thancons|dcrtbcammoddsand|nh|sqo|ntcsscnt|a||ysn|dc manncrsnccrcd
atp|aycrswhobc||cvc'thatthcoddschangcw|thcvcncardp|aycd'.
Dcsp|tctb|sv|cw,Kccscg|vcsusth|sadv|cc.'AdcIcndcrshoo|dbmsomcd
nottohavchad acho|cc mthcrthantohavccxcrc|scd acho|cc|napart|cu|ar
way'. Th|s was not aca|| togo back to thc0 mods, botmthcrtomakc a
jodgmcnt bascdontbccomnt statcoIaha|nmobscncdahcrthc b|dd|ngand
l J0 ) me, PomaMInjmm
scvcra| roondsoIp|ay. Tbc corrcntprobab|||t|csarctbcapostor odds, so|t|s
notc|carbowtb|sj |bcsw|tbtbcv|cwtbaton|yapor oddsmattcr. ccscb|msc|I
most bavc bccomc awarc oIa prob|cm, Ior |n tbc Iorcword to a |atcr | I 97 I
cd|t|onoIb|sc|ass|cccscun Ply, bccxp|a|ncdbcbad'cxpandcd tbcaccoont
oI"Irobab|||t|cs"toaccordw|tbmodcmtbcor|cs'. Tbcn |ntbchrstcbaptcrbc
wr|tcs, 'tbcoddsvancvcn t|mc a card |sp|aycd'. As tbcrcadcrw||| d|scovcr
sbort|y, tbctbconoIprobab|||tywaswc||cstab||sbcdbytbcm|dd|coItbc I Btb
ccnton,sowbatwasactoa||y'modcm'wasarcv|scdandbcttcrondcrstand|ngoI
|tsapp||cat|ontobr|dgc.
Probabilit Is Synonymous with Information
Tbc att|todc tbat probab|||ty |sapst-moncmcxcoscIor|oscn |sdcr|vcdhom
a m|sondcrstand|ngoItbc conccptoIprobab|||n. Irobab|||ty |snomorc tban
anomcr|ca|wayoIcxprc|ngthcdcgrccoIonccrta|nty|nvo|vcd |nadcc|s|on.
Tbc odds rc0cct tbc amoontoIrc|cvant |nIomat|on ava||ab|c at tbc t|mc oI
dcc|s|on. IItbc odds arc 5O-5O, thcrc |s not cnoogb |nIormat|on ava||ab|c to
makc a conhdcnt cbo|cc onc way or tbc otbcr. Tb|s |s a statc oImax|mom
onccrta|nty.
Takc,Iorcxamp|c,atwo-wayhncsscIortbc%. II|t|sknowntbcootstand|ng
d|amondsamsp||tJ-J, tbc |oat|onoItbc0 |smax|ma||yonccna|nandtbc
cbo|cc oIhncssc |ssobjcct toa 5O% pmbab|||ty oIsocccss. II|t |sknown tbc
d|amonds arc sp||t 1-Z, tbc cbanccs arc tbat tbc 0 ||cs w|th tbc Ioor-card
co||cct|on, so tbc hncssc tbroogh that bo|d|ng |s a Z to I propos|t|on. Tbc
pmbab|||t|csmcrc|y rc0cctwbatoncknowsattbct|mcoIdcc|s|on.
Lcoorsc, onccna|nty st||| cx|sts. Lvcn w|tb Z. I ods |n |ts Iavor, tbcrc
arc no goamntccs, and tbc hncssc w|||Ia||a Ia|rproport|on oItbc t|mc. Tb|s
|s nc|tbcr |ocky nor on|ocky, j ost a rcasonab|c cxpcctat|on. nc can cxpcct
bcnchtsovcrtbc|ongtcm,bottbcrcw|||bt|mcswbcnacostmostbc|nconcd
bccaoscoIonccna|nty. Tb|s |snotacaoscIor comp|a|nt. nc sboo|dp|ay |n
amanncrcons|stcntw|tbwhatoncknowsattbct|mc |orcand|scovcrw|tboot
ondocr|skI, wb|cbmcansp|ay|ngIorIavorab|coddstbatrc0ccttbcconcntstatc
oIknow|cdgc. Tbc tr|ck|stodcvc|opawayoItb|nk|ngtbata||owsIortbcm||
oscoIwhatcvcr|nIomat|on|sava||ab|c.
Atro|ymodcmdcvc|opmcnt|stbcapp||cat|onoIFrobab|||tytoInIomat|on
T
bcory, a sobjcct | |tt|c known bcIorc tbc s|xt|cs oots|dc a sma|| common|ty
oI
sc|cnt|sts, who ma||tcd tbat probab|||ty and |nIomat|on arc rc|atcd
matbcmat|ca||y. Wcarc go|ng to rctom to tbc bas|cs oIprobab|||tybygo|ng
back|nt|mctotmccbowthc|dcasdcvc|opcd.In|atcrcbaptcn,wcsba||d|scoss
tbcapp||cat|onoIInIomat|onThcorytob|dd|ng.
Cmpm3 I TmCmeptojPom|||ty l J l |
AGl i mpse i nto the History of Probabi lity
Not|ngoccutsattamom.
- Lcoc|ppos| tbccntonCI
Itutcmtkaktatasc|cnccu|chcganu|t0
com|dat|onojgamcsojcmnccsouUmvcaccomc
t most|mpntoajcctojumnknou|cdc.
- Marqu|sdcLap|acc|I 719- I BZ7I
It| s poss|b|ct oamc that thcm | s nosocb th|ngas a mndomdca|. I Iyoo ask
a compotcrIora scqucncc oInumbcn rang|nghom I to5Z, tbc compotcr w|||
ob||gc, prov|dcd youaskn|cc|y, bot oncc thc ||st cx|sts, thcscqocncc canno
|ongcrbcrandom,can|t' T|s|sabthcnomcconc|us|onthatm|sscstbcpo|nt,
wb|ch|stbattbcordcroIthcnumbcncan'tbcprcd|ctcdahcadoIt|mc,andtbat
oncscqocncc|sas||kc|yasanyotbcr.
5a|nt August|nc, tbc grcat syntbcs|tcr who b|cndcd compat|b|c parts oI
F|ato'spb||osophy w|thChr|st|andogma, Iound nogmundsIor 'acc|dcnts'. In
b|spb||osoph|ca| m|x,ancvcntm|ght appcarmndomtoanobscncr, bot tbat
appcamnccaroscso|c|yhomthc|gnomnccoItbcobscncr,andwasnotapropcrty
oItbccvcnt |tsc|I. It thcrcIorcmadc||tt|cscnsctorccordthc rcso|tsoIagrcat
nombcroItr|a|s w|thav|cwtoprcd|ct|ngthcrcsu|toIthcncxttr|a|. Ignorancc
wascons|dcrcdtbcattr|butcoIanunc|oodcdm|nd. 'Dn'tconmscmc w|tb tbc
Iacts'|s|ndccdanappropr|atcmottoIorthcmcd|cva|m|nd,pastandprcscnt.
nccansccthat|nthcpast,|tm|ghtcvcnhavcbccndangcroostoadvoatc
tbatcvcntscanocurrandom|y,howcvcr,|t|s|ntcrcst|ngthattoday'ssc|cnt|sts
sbarcw|th5a|ntAugust|ncthcv|cwthatmndomncss|sm|atcdto|nIomat|on.
'Tc|csswcknow,thcmommndomthccvcntappcantob'wastbcv|cwoItbc
anc|cnts,av|cwtumcdaroond|nthcZ0thCntuntorcad,'Tcmorcunccrta|n
ancvcnt,tbc|css|nIomat|onwchavcon|t'.
ncoIthchnttowr|tcabuthowtoprcd|cttbcmturcprobab|||st|ca||ywas
anIta||anmathcmat|c|anandphys|c|an,G|ro|amoCardano| I 50I - I 57 I I , w|th
rcgard totbcthrow|ngoId|cc. Tc |||cg|t|matcsonoIawc||-to-do|awycrand
gcomctcr wbo was a c|osc acqua|ntancc oILconamo da V|nc|, Cardano |cd a
most|ntcrcst|ngandunhappy||IcontbccdgcoId|smpotc. Lxc|odcdhommany
postsbccaoscoIthcc|rcumstanccsoIh|sb|nhaswc||ash|scantankcroosnatorc,
bc||vcdbyh|sw|tsatgamb||ng. Hcwasnotgmat|ysocccssm|,bowcvcr,atonc
t|mc b|ngcompc||cd to sc|| h|s houscho|d mm|tum to covcr dcbts. Lock||y,
bc managcd somc m|mcu|ous curcsoIpcop|c oI|n0ocncc by us|nga|tcmat|vc
mctbos oImcd|c|nc, wh|ch comparcd to standard mctbods oI tbc t|mc bad
mochtocommcndthcm,s|nccat|castthcyd|dh|spat|cntsnobam. From|ncnt
Iam|||cs backcd h|m to thc cxtcnt that bc was ab|c to mnct|on as a |cctorcr
|n matbcmat|cs. In I 515, hc pub||sbcd a b k, An M, tbat madc b|m
I JZ | me, Pom|an Injm
Iamoostbroogboot boropc, a|tboogbtbcworkconta|ncdmatcr|a|sto|cndor|ng
adr|nk|ngboothomaIc||owmatbcmat|c|ano||csscrab|||ty,Tartag||abynamc.
Cardano a|sospcnt many an boortbrow|ngd|ccaga|nst tbc wa|| and po::||ng
ovcrtbcrcso|ts. Hccomp|ctcdsomcnotcsontbcmattcr|nI J,bottbcscwcrc
not pob||sbcd ont|| l J ondcrthc t|dc Dc LwA|ca |n D|c|ngI, adccadc
aItcrtbc work oI|asca| bad ra|scd |ntcrcst |n thc sobjcct oImathcmat|ca||y-
bascdprcd|ct|onsoIprobab|ccvcnts.
ThccomcrstoncsIor thcthcoryoIprobab|||tyaswcknow|ttodaywcrc|n
Iact|a|d|n l J4. Thccsscnt|a|bo||d|ngmatcr|a|swcrcscvcn|cttcncxchangcd
by two grcat Ircnch mathcmat|c|ans. b|a|sc Iasca|, thc son oIa wca|thy man
whocontractcdIortaxco||cct|ons|nthcnamcoIthcK|ngoIIrancc,andI|cnc
dcIcmat,ajor|stbytradc,whoscIamoosLastThcorcmtokIoorccntor|cs to
provc. ThccorrcspondcnccbctwccnIasca|andIcmatconccmcdan|ntcrcst|ng
prob|cm|nvo|v|ngthcthrow|ngoId|cc.
Iasca| wasa br||||ant|ys|mp||st|cth|nkcr. thc baromctcr, thc spccdomctcr
andamcchan|ca|ca|co|at|ngmach|ncbascdoncogsandwhcc|swcrca||proocts
oIb|s |ns|ghtandgcn|os. Hcrc|sanothcr. Inthc I 7thccnton,gcnt|cmcnworc
coatsoImanypokctswh|chrcso|tcd|nthcmstrat|onoIhsh|ngabootIornccdcd
|tcms, sochashandkcrch|cIs, wa||cts,papcrs, co|ns andsoon. ncday, Iasca|
amoscdh|sh|cndswhcnhcappcarcdw|thh|spokctwatchstrappcdtoh|swr|st.
Hchad|nvcntcdthcwr|stwatch.
botwcarcgctt|ngahcadoIoonc|vcs. Ancnoos,|ntrospcct|vcyoongman,
Iasca|Ic|| |ntoa dcprcsscd mcnta| statc ahcr thc dcath oIh|sIathcr |n l J l .
H|sdotor,somcwhatoIapm-Ircod|anpsycho|og|st|tsccms,scc|ngnophys|ca|
rcasonIorIasca|'spart|a||ypara|yt|ccond|t|on,sogcstcdthatsqoandcr|ngsomc
oIthc |nhcr|tancc on n|ghts on thc town m|ght chcct a corc. Itwasworth a
tn. Iasca| |ovcd stay|ng op |atc and gamb||ng t||| dawn, so that bccamc thc
prcscr|bcdrcg|mcn. Itworkcdwondcnl H|shcathwasrcstorcd. nh|sjoomcys
throoghn|ghtt|mcIar|s,hcIc|||nw|thasmartyoonggamb|crmoch||kch|msc|I.
Anto|ncGombao|d,thcChcva||crdcMr,whowasamastcroIbctt|ngond|cc
andcards. Inst|nct|vc|y,dcMra|wayssccmcdtochoscthcr|ghts|dcoIabct.
Wc||,mostoIthct|mc. In l J4,hc Ia||cd |noncoIh|scntcmr|scsand askcd
Iasca|Ior|ns|ght. Thush|stonwasmadc.
Ior somc t|mc, dc Mr had madc moncy on th|s propos|t|on. 'I w|||g|vc
yoocvcn moncy that yoo w||| ro|| a s|x at |castoncc |n Ioorsocccss|vc tosscs
oIoncd|c.' Th|s|sawc||-knownbct,cvcntoday. IorthcsakcoIvar|cty, and
dcs|r|ng to w|n morc moncy mm pcop|c whohad |ost |ntcrcst |nh|s prcv|oos
propos|t|on,hc |atcrchangcdtoth|swagcr. ' Iw|||g|vcyoocvcnoddsthatyoo
w|||
ro||adoob|cs|xonat|castoncoItwcnty-IoortosscsoItwod|cc.' Ittroob|cd
dcMrthathcwas|os|ngmoncy|nth|sncws|toat|on.
WhcnIasca| tok on h|sh|cnd's prob|cm, hc transIormcd h|msc|Ihoma
br|ght, yoong wastrc| |nto what |n modcm tcms wc ca|| a r|sk managcmcnt
Cmpm3 I TmComeptojPom||| l JJ !
consu|tant,a thorough|yrcputab|cpro|css|on whosc mcmbcrso|tcng|vcaJv|cc
ontc|cv|s|on. HcrcasoncJ as|o| |ows. noncthrowo|aJ|c,thcrc |sancqua|
chancc o|ro| | |ng any numbcr onc though s|x. Te chancc o|not throw|ng
s|xmust bc /. Ascacb tbrow |s|nJcpcnJcnto|any othcrthrow, thcchancc
o|notgctt|nga s|xon|ourtbrows|sc|car|y / x /x /x /, wh|chcomcs
toO.4BZZor4B. ZZ%. |nmodcmpar|ancc, tbc probab| | | ty o|throw|nga s|x |s
l . 77%, a d|dcrcncc o|J. %. ntbcotbcrband, tbrow|ng a doub|c s|x |n
twcnty-Ioortosscsbasapmbab|||tyo|49. l4%, sotbcoddsarcs| |gbt|yaga|nsttbc
propos|t|on,asdcMrbadgocsscd. Nowondcrbcwas|os|ngmoncy.
|n ordcr to movc tbcodds |nb|s Iavor, dc Mr nccdcd to cbangc tbc bct
hom Z4tbrows to Z. Howcvcr, |tbas bccncst|matcd by K.W Hamm|ng| |n
T|cAttojFtoaaa|||tyI tbattoscctbcd|dcrcncc|nootcomcsbctwccnZ4tbrows
and Z tbrows woo|d bavc rcqo|rcd at |cast 7B,OOO tosscso|tbc d|cc. So tbc
Cbcva||cr's sosp|c|ons wcrc arooscd morc by b|s sbort-tcrm |osscs tban by any
|ong-tcrm cxpcr|cncc. |n br|dgc, tbcrc arc many 'corrcct' tccbn|ca| p|ays that
arcIavorcdby|cwcrpcrccntagcpo|ntstbantb|s,soonccanbard|y|mag|nchow
manyycarsoncwoo|dbavctop|aytomastcrtbcma||ontbcbas|so|cxpcr|cncc
a|onc. C|car|y somc tbcon |s nccdcd as an a|d. Sbort-tcrm cxpcr|cncc may
|cavconcnonctbcw|scr.
Pascal's Tri angle
At|c||bt|atahcctamncomchom0 so|ccamc,
mmc|yt|at|c0not|camdR s|tau|cdyandconndy|natoom.
- |a|sc|asca|| I JZ- I ZI
|asca|'swayo|tb|nk|ngabootprobab|||ty|scommonp|accnow,bothrstsomconc
badtocotanarrowpatboI|og|ca|procdorctbroogbtbctw|stcdondcrgrowtbo|
Ia||ac|ousargomcnt. |asca|b|msc|Id|dnotc|a|mbcbad|nvcntcdanytb|ngncw,
asscrt|ngtbatbcwasmcrc|yarrang|ngprcv|oos|ybc|dconccpts|ntoasystcmat|c
hamcwork. Tbatpo|ntstotbcrcasonwbybr|dgcp|aycrssboo|dbavcawork|ng
know|cdgc oIprobab|||ty tbcory - hnt, as a pract|ca| app||cat|on o|rc|cvant
rcso|ts tbat ocorhcqocnt|y dor|ngnorma| p|ay | know|cdgc tbcy may acqo|rc
tbroogbpa|nm|tr|a|andcnorl, andsccond,asamcansoIacqo|r|ngasystcmat|c,
gcncra| approacb to dcc|s|on mak|ng tbat may b app||cd to many s|toat|ons,
cspcc|a||ytbosctbatmaybccncoontcrcdon|yrarc|y.
nco||asca|'s'anangcmcnts'|stbcso-ca||cdPascal's Trgle, wb|cbstarts
as|o||ows.
| J4 |
rme, From|||aMIojmoo
4
5
6 1 5
2
3 3
6
1 0 1 0
20
etc.
4
5
1 5 6
Tc nombcrs can bc cont|nocd down as Iaras onc w|shcs. Lach ||nc can bc
Jer|vcdhom thconcabovc asIo||ows. cach nombcr |na |owcr ||nc cqoa|sthc
sumoIthctwoc|oscst |ntcgcrs abovc |t|nthcprcv|oos||nc,onctothc|chand
onctothcr|ght. |Th|s d|agramwasknown|nCh|na |nthc I1thccntonbythc
namcoITmFtcc|omM|moj0FoutE
l
t. )
Tc |mportancc oIth|s d|agram tobr|dgc | sthat thcsc |ntcgcn rcprcscnt
thcnombcrsoIwaysoIchos|ng0 cardshomapo|oINcards. W|thootgo|ng
|nto thc cxact mcthod oIca|co|at|ngthcsc comb|nat|ons, |ct osjost statc that
thcyarcthcLcgob|oks|nthcmathcmat|c|an'sF|aybxoIFrobab|||ty. Thc|ast
||ncoItbcd|agramrcprcscntsthccomb|nat|onsoIcardstakcnhomapo|oIs|x
carJs.|sthcnombcroIwaysonccardcanbcchoscn, I 5 rcprcscntsthcnombcr
oIcomb|nat|ons Ior two cards choscn oot oIs|x, Z0rcprcscnts thc nombcroI
comb|nat|onsoIthrcccardschoscn. 5ymmctnabootthcvcrt|ca|canbcgmspcd
atag|ancc. 5o|t|sthatthcnombcroIcomb|nat|onsoIIoorcardschoscnhom
s|x |s cqoa| to thc nombcr oIways twocards can bc choscn hom s|x, bccaosc
choos|ngtwocardsand|cav|ngIoorbch|nd|scqo|va|cnttochos|ngIoorcards
and |cav|ngtwobch|nd. Thconcsatthccxtrcm|t|csamrcspcct|vc|ythcnombcr
oIwaysoIchoos|ngnocardsanda||thccardsava||ab|c.
I nformati on and Probabi lity in the 2oth Century
wmdatcmt0|mcsojmtm.
Toja|n|ovcwt muRja|n|ovcwt ap|ctutc.
5|rIranc|sbacon| I 5I - I ZI
W
ords, w
ords, words. . . bythc t|mcthc Z0thccntonro||cdaroond, Frobab|||ty
1co
n
had
cvo|vcd |ntoastatcoI||ngo|st|cconms|on. ThcIrcnch v|cw was
tb
attbcyhadsh|ppcdthcthconacrossthcLng||shChannc||ngodshapcback
|
n
|
ap|acc's
t|mcanda ccnton |atcrthc br|t|sh had mcsscd |topgrcat|y. Thc
atbc
mat|c|an
[
m||cbrc|,ahcrattcmpt|ngtorcadaI 9Z I trcat|sconsobjcct|vc
CMpm3 I TmComeptojPom|ty l J5 I
probab|||tybythccconom|st]obnMaynardKcyncs,sa|dbccoo|dn'tondcntand
aword oI|t, and potIortb tbcbypotbcs|stbat Eng||sbandFrcncbbra|nswcrc
d|hcrcnt|y constmctcd. brc| soggcstcd rctom|ng to an ana|ys|s oIgamcs |n
ordcrtostodytbcprob|cm |n|tss|mp|cstIorm,as Iasca|andFcrmatbaddonc
at thcvcrybcg|nn|ng. Hc cbosc br|dgc as a so|tab|csobjcctand w|th Andr
Chron, a |cad|ng Ircnchp|aycr, prodoccd thcc|ass|cTcMa0ma|Tcm
ojnc, hrst pob||shcd |n Lng||sh |n I 955w|ththchnanc|a|back|ngoIC.C.
Wc|,thc|nvcntoroIthcFrcc|s|onb|dd|ngsystcm.
Mcanwh||c, |so|atcd hom cross-channc| condcsccns|on and v|topcrat|on,
5ov|ct matbcmat|c|ans had comc op w|th a way to hrm up thc Ioondat|ons.
Andrc|Ko|mogomvsa|dthat|td|dn'tmattcrwhatprobab|||tywasas|ongasonc
coo|ddcscr|bc |tsmathcmat|ca|propcrt|cs|naIcws|mp|cax|oms|na manncr
cons|stcntw|ththcmathcmat|ca|Iomo|at|onsoIthcpast. Itwasas|ILoc||dhad
drawn a ||nc |nthc sand andsa|d, 'Lads, I dchnc a stm|ght ||nc as thc shoncst
d|stanccbctwccntwopo|nts,andnow|ct'sgctonw|ththcmstoI|t.'
Thc samc scn|cc w|th rcgard to |nIomat|on was prov|dcd |n I 951 by
thc Amcr|can cng|nccr, C|aodc 5hannon. 'What |s |nIormat|on" 5hannon
pondcrcd. 'How arc |nIomat|onandprobab|||tyrc|atcd" Insp|rat|onprov|dcd
th|ss|mp|cmathcmat|ca|answcr.
I nfrmation .o (
What |s p' Irobab|||ty, oIcooncl Thus 5hannon madc an unamb|gooos
|nvcnc||nkbctwccnpmbab|||tyand|nIormat|on. Inothcrwords,thc|css||kc|y
ancvcnt,thcmorc|nIormat|on|tconvcyswhcn|tocun. Wcshou|dnotcbIorc
go|ngIartbcrthatwhat5hannonwasrcIcn|ngto|sthcntoI|nIomat|on|n
amcssagc,notthcactoa||nIomat|onconta|ncd.
To potth|s|dca|nabr|dgccontcxt,|ct'scons|dcrthcs|tuat|onwhcrconc|s
p|ay|nganatora|systcmandopcnsw|thab|doII0. Fartncrrcspndsopthc||nc
w|th I< orl,prom|s|ngat|castIoorcards|nthcsu|tnamcd. Wh|chb|d|sthc
morc|nIormat|vc' Aspartncrwoo|db|dI< anyt|mchchasIoorhcaru,whcthcr
ornothchasIoorspadcs,and Iw|thIoorspadcsandIcwcrthanIoorhcarts, |t
|smorc||kc|ythcrcsponscw|||b I< mthcrthan I. Thc l< rcspnscthcrcIorc
hasah|ghcrprobab|||ty than I. Howcvcr, thc l< b|d |s |css |nIomat|vc and
psscsscsmorconccrta|nty,as|t dosnotcxc|odcthcmqocntcascoI1-1 |n thc
majon. Thc lb|d|smorc|nIormat|vcbot |cssprobab|c.
5hannonchoscthctcrmentpy |atcmuscd|nphys|ctocxprcssthcamoont
oId|sordcr|nasystcmI tocxprcssthcamoontoIunccrta|nty|nmanys|tuat|ons
|nvo|v|ngprobab|| |ty. jostas, |nphys|cs,systcmtcndtomax|m|tcd|sordcr,wc
sha||hndthatoormathcmat|ca|modc|sprcIcrtomax|m|tconccna|nty. Atthc
tab|c, thc ||c oIthc cards thatgcncratcsthc mostpss|b|ccascs, and thcrcIorc
max|momonccrta|nty, |s thc most probab|c. Wc sha|| rcIcr to'cntropy' whcn
| ?A l Rwdoo ob|||nIn/m
tbc rcIcrcncc |s d|rcct|y rc|atcd to tbc matbcmat|ca| qoant|ty, bot thc rcaJcr
|s a||owcd tosay 'onccrta|nty'ondcr b|s brcatb. |t |swortbwb||c to know tb|s
matbcmat|ca|dchn|t|oncx|stscvcn|Iwcnccdn'tca|co|atc|tsva|oc,bccaosctbc
conccptoIonccrta|ntyanJ|tsrc|at|onsb|ptoknow|cdgc|sIondamcnta|toam||
ondcrstand|ngoItbcapp||cat|onsoIprobab|||tytobr|dgc.
I nterl ude of Movie Madness
Ton|dt'sFtcscnmt|on tUcont OcntEmcss( 1 939)
Sm|nga||aWaHo|mcsamN|gc|mcawauon
Scene: Holmes and Watson are ki bitzing to suspicious characters psing as
Levanti ne busi nessmen who have sat down i n the l ounge car fr a game of
bridge with a Turkish government oficial and an Arab sheik.
Watson: Holmes, at this rate we won't find out who holds the queen of spades befre
reaching Constantinople.
Holmes: Patience, old fllow. Why, we've al ready reduced the possi bi l ities by half.
Watson: |don't see what you mean. All that's happened i n the past five mi nutes i s that
the fl low beneath the fz has led the 18. That's j ust one card out of fif-to,
the way | see it.
Holmes: | mean that by playi ng the 18, he has el i mi nated the pssibil it of his partner
holding that card, thus removing fom consideration half of all pssible
deal s.
Watson: Amazi ng! A reverse probabil it, or something of that sort. Now | M his
partner with the fl se bard has fllowed with the 15, thus removing half of
the remai ni ng deal s and reducing the pssibil ities to oneuarter of what we
started with when we l ef the station at Budapest.
Holmes: Very perceptive, Watson, and only slightly inaccurate. Once the dummy
appeared, West could have held 1 0,.00,600 difrent hands and the same
applies to East, so one round of hearts has reduced the possibil ities to to
and a half mi llion, not much less than the oneuarter you mentioned. The
next defnder's card will produce another onehalf reduction in a symmetric
situation.
Watson: If these fllows would pl ay a bit fster, we coul d cath a good ni ght's sleep
while passing through Bulgaria.
Holmes: Ex
actly. As | have always told you, Watson, el i mi nate the i mpossible and
whatever i s lef, however i mprobable, must incl ude the true situation.
W
atson: Two and a half mi l l ion pssibil ities sti l l to be el i minated, mi nus one, that i s.
Cmm3 I TmCmeptojPomty ( J7 !
Is Bri dge Beautiful?
AccutaucssmmK Naun.
- Ka|phWa|doLmcnon| l B0J- l BBZI
I do not know what thc ph||osophcr was th|nk|ng oI whcn hc wrotc thc
statcmcnt abvc-pcrhaps thc baut|m||y cancd but unprcd|ctab|c c|ok on
h|smantc|p|ccc. Noth|ngC bptcnt|a||ymorcannoy|ngthanacucko|ora
partncrIwhocont|nua||ym|s-t|mcsh|s|caps. Ihavca|waysthooghtoIaccuracy
asmcrc|yah|ghcrIomoIcount|ng,aco|k|ndoIpncct|onthatappca|stothc
panoIthcbm|ncapab|coImason|ng,apanthathasadcprcss|ng|ysma||ro|cto
p|ay |nourcvcndaydcc|s|onmak|ng,aswc |cam homthc h|gh|y cntcna|n|ng
b kbyncurosc|cnt|stjonahLhrcr,Hmwc Dco| Z0I.
Manybr|dgccommcntatonam|dca||sts,thcyw|shthcgamcwou|dprov|dc
a mmgc, w|th|nwh|chwhat m|ghtbc tcmcd 'thch|ghcr mnct|ons' C hcc|y
roam||kc un|com |nthc L|ys|an I|c|ds. Thc F|aton|ststakcthc v|cw thatoot
thcrcsomcwhcrc thcrc must b thc pncct p|ay, |Ionc cou|don|yhnd |t. To
sat|sh thc|rdcs|rc Ior pncct|on, thcy promotc thc |dca that at IMFscor|nga
p|aycrshou|dcnv|s|onasctoIc|rcumstanccs,nomattcrhowun||kc|y, |nwh|ch
acontractmayIa||,thcnIom ap|anthatavo|dsthc|mag|ncddangcn,cvcnat
thccostoIovcnr|cks. Lndcrsuchc|rcumstanccsthcymayobscnc,'5hcp|aycd
|tbcaut|m||y',w|thoutmcnt|on|ngthatthchna|tr|cktota|waswc||bc|ow|tsm||
ptcnt|a|. To thcm,that'swhcrcbautyrcs|dcs.
To such |dca||sts I say, 'Lmbmcc pmbab|||ty, g|or|hdoubt.'Thc c|oscrthc
wor|doIbr|dgcrcscmb|csthc ma|wor|d, thcmorc amus|ng |tbcomcs. Thcrc
|sbcautyandcxc|tcmcnt |nunccna|nty. 5hakcsparc wrotc, '5ha|| I comparc
thcc toasummcr'sday'', wh|ch |smuchmomcvoat|vcthanahctua|, 'I sha||
comparcthcchvomb|ytoasummcr'sdayandgoonat|cngthhomthcrc.' What
potnms|dcs|nthcwom'pnhancc',as|n'tos|ccp,pcnhancctodmpatr|ck
thatw|||notrctum' l Thcrc |snost|gmatobattachcdtoagucss,on|ytoabad
gocss.
Howdosthcstatcmcnt'5hcp|aycd|tbaut|m||y'd|hcrhom'5hcgucsscd
wc||' ' FcrhapsatIMFsoncCahordtop|aybaut|m||y,whcmasatmatchp|nts
oncmustgucsswc||tow|n. Frobab|||typ|aysa|argcpan|nthc|attcrprocss. It
thcrcIorcp|aysan|ncrcas|ng|y|amcpancvcnatIMFs,asmodcmp|aycnrcach
morcdub|ouscontmctsthats|mp|yca||Ioradopt|ngthcmostprobab|cw|nn|ng
||nc.
CHAPTER4
LMb| N|| NbN PLkMU||| Nb

W
W W

'

Ihc||cvct cdtionojt QmntityojFtom|||tym|dtN

|mmovcdK hcavmchandpkaantSpcumt|onandapp||cdKa
gcatmnyEvmuu|catcacidcnm| ,acs|dstoscojGamcs .
wctcamtcmaoca|tcaon|ngcanacm, |t'sagcatjoyK
mmcojanyotct,aKgopcjmat|ng|nt dtk
ucnyouavcacn smnd|ng0you.
johnArbothnot |I 7- I 7 J5I hom
O t LusojChancc,m,aMctojt HazatdojGamc | I 9ZI
Sucbwasthcadmon|t|ontothcrcadcr| nthc |ntrodoct|ontothchntbokon
pmbab|||tywr|ttcn|nLng||sh.Whyhad|t takcnso|ongIorth|s|dca,commonp|acc
|noUrday,tobcg|vcn m|| pob||c acccptancc' Lct'sa||owph||osophcrstoargoc
ovcrtbcrcasons,andIoosoorownattcnt|ononthcbr|dgcp|aycr. It|scsscnt|a|
toanondcrstand|ngoIhowprobab|||tyapp||cstocardp|aytoscchow|tdcr|vcs
|mmtbcnombcroIcardcomb|nat|ons|nvo|vcd.
1crcarctwocharactcr|st|csoIcardp|accmcntsthatnccdtobcrccogn|tcd.
thcnom
bcroIcomb|nat|ons|ntowh|chthccardscanbcdca|ttotwodcIcndcn
and tbc nombr oIprmotat|ons |n wh|ch thc cards can bc p|aycd. Not|cc
thc d|st|nct|on hcrc, |mpnant |n mathcmat|cs bot ohcn b|oncd |n cvcnday
usagc. |IthcordcroIasc|cct|on|s|mponant,|t|sapruttion |Inot,|t|sa
combination. Aswcsawcar||cr, Fasca|'sTr|ang|ccanhc|posw|th thc nombcr
aysm
cardscanbcsc|cctcdhomagroopoINcards. TakcthccascoIagroop
Ioor
cards. Thc cntn |n thc Tr|ang|c Ior Ioorcards |s I -1--1- I , mcan|ng
th
at
tb
crc
arc|ntota|s|xtccnposs|b|ccomb|nat|ons( I 11I ), d|v|dcd|nto
gro
upsoI
1-0, J- I , Z-Z, I -Jand0-1,rcspcct|vc|y,accord|ngtothcsp||tsbctwccn
t
o
bands.
Let's Jcnotc the four carJs in the JcfcnJcr's hanJs hy the letters f , M,
anJ V. Here arc the si xteen possihle comhinat ions cxprcsscJ in terms of those
letters.
4 - 0
u
2 - 2

0 - 4
uwx- 0 uwx - y uw- x y - uwx 0 - uwx
ux- w ux - w w - ux
uw- x uy - w x - uw
wx- u wx - uy u - wx
x- uw
w- ux
|Itbc carJs arc Jca|t at ranJom, cacb poss|b|||ty w|tb|n cacb sp| |t |s cqua||y
probab|c,buttbcsp||tstbcmsc|vcsarcnotcqoa||yprobab|c.ancvcnsp| |t|smorc
||kc|ytbanaspcc|hcuncvcnsp||t. TbcrankoItbccarJs|snotrc|cvant.
Wbcn | tcomcs to tbc p|ay oItbc carJs, bowcvcr, tbc rank oItbc carJs
may bc rc|cvant, as a JcIcnJcrsboo|d not p|ay a card tbat g|vcs away a tr|ck
onncccssar||y. An|mportantcbaractcr|st|c|stbcorJcr|nwb|cbtbccarJscan
bcp|aycJonJcrsucbaconJ|t|on. |IcarJsu, w, x and yarcoIcqoa|s|gn|hcancc,
tbcn tbcycan bc p|aycJ atranJom| |Iwc |gnorc carJ|ngagrccmcntsI , so tbe
p|ay |s s|m| |ar to tbc Jca| |n tbat tbcorJcroIappcarancc oItbccarJs |s not
matcr|a|. Howcvcr, tbcrc |s |nIormat|on to bc baJ Irom tbc appcarancc o|H
spcc|hccarJ.
Lct'ssupposcJcc|arcr|ays Jown tbc acc |ntbcso|tanJ LHIo||owsw|th
cardu. Tbattc||sostbcLHwasnotvo|d|ntbcso|t. |ta|sotc||sustbatba||
oItbccomb|nat|ons||stcJabovcbavcbccnc||m|natcd,a||tboscIorwb|cbcarJ
u |sbc|JbyKH. A|so,|Itbcsp||t|sJ- I , LHcoo|dbavccboscnanyoItbrcc
carJs,|IZ-Z, c|tbcroItwocarJs. |Itbcsp||t|sI -J, j ostonccardcanappcar. Tbc
nombcroIp|aos|b|ccbo|ccs|stbosan|mponantcbaractcr|st|ctbatJ|st|ngo|sbcs
tbc sp||ts. Tb|s |s J|scosscJ mnbcr wbcn wc |ntroJocc aycs' Tbcorcm, |n
Cbaptcr7.
|I tbc p|ay cont|nocs w|tb tbc KH Io||ow|ng w|tb card x, tbcn tbc
poss|b|||t|csarcrcdoccdtotbcIo||ow|ng.
u
uw- x
2 - 2
uw- x
u
y
- wx
u
u - wx
TbcrcarcIoorcomb|nat|onsrcma|n|ng,|ntbcpattcmoII -Z- I . Tbctota|nombcr
oIp|aos|b|cp|aypcrmotat|onsbctwccnLHandKHtakcn|ntanJcmcqoa|s
tbrcc Ior cacb oItbc J- I and I -J sp||tsand cqoa|sIoorIortbc Z-Zsp| |t. Tb|s
d|st|nct|on|swbatmakcsprobab|| |tyJor|ngtbcp|ayoItbccarJsd|dcrcntIrom
tbc probab|| |tyoItbc Jca|oItbc carJs.
I 40 I Bre , Pobilit aMlnfution
Thcrc |sonehna|po|nttobcmaJchcrc.say|ngthatthc Jc|cnJers|o||owcJ
w|thtwo|owcarJs|snotthcsamcasnot|ngspcc|hca||ythatLHO |o||owcJw|th
carJuanJRHO w|thcarJX. Atthctab|c,oncsccswh|chcarJsarep|aycJ,anJ
thata||ows|orthcspcc|hcrcJuct|onshownabovc.
Lct's takc a rcst |rom a|| th|s thcory anJ a||ow oursc|vcs a br|c|vacat|on
on
an |s|anJ |nthcSouth |ac|hc whcrccomb|nat|onsanJpcrmutat|onsp|aya
ro|c
|nh|| |ngthc vacantp|accs |nancstab||shmcnt wc sha||ca||tbc Htc|do
|araJ|s.
Vacati on at the Hotel du Paradi s
|ar|yoncmom|ngas thcsonr|scsabovctbc|ac|hct obcg|n|tsrc|cnt|csstaskoI
scorch|ngtbcsandso|tbcncarbybcacb,hvcb|cary-cycdpasscngcrscmcrgchom
a battcrcd anddostytax|cab. St|d-|cggcd, thcy makc tbc|rway |nasstra|gbta
||nc as thcy can managc to thc |obbyo|tbc Htc|do |arad|s. Awa|t|ngtbcm
bch|nJ a |orm|dab|c tcakwod ban|cr stands tbc s| |gbt hgorc o|bcspcctac|cd
Ass|stantManagcrAr|st|dc-Maor|cc Lap|acc, wbosc |ntc|||gcntIcatorcsd|sp|ay
am|xtorco|d|gn|ty,dc|crcnccandbcmoscmcnt.
Ycs,hcassorcsb|sprospcct|vcgocsts,hcbastbc|rrcscrvat|onsIorbcacbs|dc
accommoJat|ons, wr|ttcn down on thrcc h|ccards wb|cb bc ho|ds bc|orc b|m
anJhom wh|ch bc proccds to rcad tbc|r namcs. Mr.andMrs. HcnnKraIt
o|K|ngston,ntar|o, Mr. and Mrs. arn To||cyo|bston, Mass. , and rotbcr
Xav|cr o|San Franc|sco, Ca|||om|a. Ln|ortonatc|y |or tbc ncw an|va|s, tbc
th|rtccnroomsoIAnncx A and tbc tb|rtccn romso|Anncx arcatprcscnt
occup|cd,bowcvcr,scvcra|vacanc|csw|||bc|orthcom|ngbc|orcnon. Asson
asavacancyocors,bcw|||ass|gntbataccommodat|ontoonco|tbctbrccpart|cs
bc|orch|m. |ntbcmcant|mc,bc|sbappytobab|ctoodcrtbcmcomp||mcntary
Cont|ncnta| brcak|asts ondcr tbc pa|mtrccs |n tbc opcn-a|r Tk|-Tk| Loongc
anJ thcrca|tcr hcc osc o|tbc tcnn|s coorts ont|| socb t|mc as rooms bccomc
ava| |ab|c.
As thcyarc|cav|ngtbc |obby, MrsKrahdmwsas|dcbcrhosbandandsays
|n a |ouJ wb|spcr, 'Hcnry, | can't stand tbc tboogbt o|spcnd|ng two wccks |n
thc samc ||tt|c Anncx w|tb tbosc tcrr|b|c To||cys. Say somctb|ng to thc n|cc
anagcr,w|||yoo''
' Don'tmss,Zoc, tbcoddsarc aga|nst |t,'rcassorcsbcrbosband wcar||y. To
tc||thctrotb,bc|avorstbcTo||cysasnc|gbbors,bc|ngoncasyw|tbtbcthoogbt
thatb|smocb-ant|c|patcdsccondhoncymoonw|||bcspcntw|tb rotbcrXav|cr
kncc||ng|ns||cntpraycr|ntbcadjaccntrom.
Astbc|rtb|rdcopso|strong|yac|d|cFrcncbroastco|bc|orcthcm,Lap|acc
a
n|vcsattbc|rtab|candannoonccsbr|gbt|ythatthc|raccommodat|onsarcnow
ava||ab|c.
Cmpt4 l Cmhimt|maMPamt|m I 41 I
' BrothcrXav|cr, I havcyou|nAnncx A,'hcbcg|ns.
Nowwc|ntcrroptourstoryanJasksomcqucst|ons.
QUESTION # 1 How close was Henry Kraf to tel l i ng a fi b when he sai d that
the Tulleys probably would be assigned to a di ferent Annex?
QUESTION #2 How does the fct that Brother Xavier has been assigned to
Annex A afct the odds?
Mons|corLp|acccont|nocs,'MrandMrsTo||cy,yooa|marc|nAnncxA.'
QUESTION #3 Now what are the ods that the Krafs wi l l end up i n Annex
B? How much hope can Henry al low hi mself?
Wcsba||answcrtbcscqocst|onsbIorcproccd|ngmnbcr|noorstorybys|mp|y
coont|ng op tbc poss|b|c comb|nat|ons. Wb||c wc arc tak|ng a momcnt away
homtbcnarrat|vc,|t|swortbdmw|ngtbcrcadcr'sattcnt|ontotbcIacttbatcacb
oIoorAnncxcsconta|nstb|rtccnroms. bpat|cnt -cvcntoa||ya||oItb|sw|||
app|ytobr|dgcl
Icrbaps tbc cas|cst way to tb|nk oItbc prob|cm |s to |mag|nc M.
l
ap|acc
at b|scoontcr. nc party cbccks oot, bc ass|gns tbc vacatcd rom to brotbcr
Xav|cr. Tbc ncxt party cbccks oot and bc ass|gns thc|r rom to Mr and Mrs
To||cy. AItcr tbc tb|rd party cbccks oot, b|s ass|gnmcnt |s comp|ctcd and bc
proccdstotbc|oongcw|tbtbcgodncws.
Cons|dcrtbchtstpanyto|cavc. Tbcrcarc th|nccnposs|b|||t|cs |nAnncx
Aandtb|rtccnposs|b|||t|cs|nb,twcnty-s|x|na||. 5othccbanccoItbcvacancy
ocorr|ng|nAnncxAwasI JootoIZ,and|nAnncxb,thcsamc.50%Iorcacb
cvcnt.
Cons|dcrtbcsccondpanyto|cavc. AsbrotbcrXav|cr|stoocopyap|acc
|nAnncxA,tbcrcwcrcnowon|ytwc|vcpss|b|cncwvacanc|cs|nAandst|||
tb|rtccn|nb. Sotbcoddstbatsomconc|nA w|||bcncxtto|cavcarcrcdoccd
to I ZlZ |4B%I, wbcrcas tbcoddsoIsomconc |cav|ngb arc |ncrcascd to I JlZ
| 5Z%I.
I|na||y, ahcr tbc To||cys arc a|sog|vcn accommoat|on | nA, thc odds o|
tbc ncxt vacancy bc|ng |n A arc mrtbcr rcdoccd to I IIZ4 |4%I wbcrcas tbc
odds Ior b arc now I JlZ4 | 54%I. So g|vcn th|s procdorc and assom|ng tbc
roms arc vacatcd |n a porc|y random manncr, wc can w|tc dow tbc cxact
odds. To dotb|s,wcmostcons|dcra||poss|b|cs|toat|ons|'cvcnts'|nprobab|||ty
tcrm|no|ogyI.
l 4Z | ne, Fom|aMIojmmo
AnneA Anne8
K
O K
KX T
K X
Odds fr Occumnce
( 1 3/26) P ( 1 2/25) P ( 1 1 /24)
( 1 3/26) P ( 1 2/25) P ( 1 3/24)
( 1 3/26) P ( 1 2/25) P ( 1 3/24)
( 1 3/26) P ( 1 2/25) P ( 1 3/24)
Noralized
1 1
1 3
1 3
1 3
Wc canc||m|natccommonIactors |nthc'JJs'co|omnanJarr|vcatthchna|
co|omn,wh|cbshowsthcrc|at|onsh|p|ntcrmsoIpcrccntagcs. An I I occors|I
KT arc a|| ass|gncd tothcsamc anncx, wb||c thc thrcc I Js occorwhcn both
anncxcsrccc|vcncwgocsts. Tb|schanrcprcscntsj ostha|Itbccvcntsposs|b|c.
S|ncc |t|scqoa||y||kc|ytbattbchrstvacancyoccorrcd|nAnncx,ooronc I I
aoJthrcc l Jsmostbcdoob|cdtoaccoontIorthcposs|b|||t|cswbcnAanJarc
cxchangcJ. Tbat |cavcs osw|tbonc ZZ and tbrcc Zs, w|tb thcbappy tota| oI
| OO, a convcn|cntco|nc|dcncc,ocorr|ng |n tb|scasc on|y, that Iac|||tatcs thc
convcrs|ontopcrccntagcs.
Ho|J on, yoo m|gbtcxc|a|m, a|| tb|s |snot rca||y va||d bccaosc thc gocsts
maynotchcckoot|narandomscqocncc. |crbapsgocsts|nadjaccntroomshavc
an|vcJtogcthcrandarc |cav|ngontbcsamc0|gbt, so thc|rdcpanorct|mcsarc
corrc|atcJtotbc|rspat|a|prox|m|ty. Ycs,andtbcsamc|strocoIpoor|yshomcJ
carJs. CarJsgctdca|t|na non-randomIasb|onbccaosccarJs that wcrc rc|atcJ
|othcp|ayoItbcprcv|oosdca|rcma|n|ntbatrc|at|onsb|pdoctopoorshom|ng.
Howcvcr, |n tbc matbcmat|ca| modc||ngoItbc proccss, oncassomcsthat thc
shuH||ng|saJcqoatcandtbattbccardsarcdca|tranJom|y.
anJomncss |ndca||ngmcanstbattbccardscanbc Jca|t |nanyscqocncc
prov|JcJ thcy arc tboroogb|y sbomcd. KanJomncss |n p|ay |sanothcr mattcr
a|togcthcr. A|thoogbLap|accmaysc|cctoncrcscrvat|oncardovcranothcr|n
a ranJom manncr, tbcscqocncc oIp|ays at br|dgc |s govcmcJ by rcstr|ct|ons
|mposcJ by thc m|cs oItbc gamc, socb as bav|ng to Io||ow so|t. Thcsc ro|cs
|mposcorJcroncbaos.
Thcrc|sanotbcrwaytbatLap|accm|gbtass|gnrooms. Hccoo|Jwa|tont||
thrccvaca
nc|cshavcoconcd,tbcncboscatranJomacarJhomb|srcscrvat|on
h|e.
Hc ass|gns tbat onknown party to tbc anncx w|tb morc vacanc|cs - |t
Joesn't
mattcr wb|cb anncx bc cboscs, as thc randomncss oIp|accmcnt |s a
co
oscqocncc oI tbc sbom|ng oItbc rcscrvat|on cards. As |ong as thc Jca| |s
raoJom, thc matbcmat|cs |s tbc samc, on|y tbc |mp|cmcntat|on changcs. So,
o
oe
mayth|nkoIdca||ngcards|nscvcra|ways,bot|t|s|mponanttochooscthc
|
9
p
|cmcntat|onthatbcstpromotcsondcrstand|ngoIaranJomprocss.
o yoorcmcmbcrtbctbrcc qocst|onswcposcdcar||cr' WcarcnowrcaJy
t
\
+osw
crthcmby |ok|ngattbctab|cabovc.
Cmpt4 l CmhimtimaMPamt|m I 43
I
QUESTION # 1 How close was Henry Kraft to tel l i ng a fi b when he sai d that
the Tulleys probably woul d be assi gned to a di fferent Annex?
ANSWER #1 K and T will occupy the same Annex 48 ti mes out of 1 00, so
Henry Kraf was on the correct si de of hi s borderl i ne cl ai m by 52% to 48%.
QUESTION #2 How does the fct that Brother Xavier has been assigned to
Annex A afct the odds?
ANSWER #2 The assi gnment of X to Annex A did not afect the odds of K
bei ng together as the case of Kbei ng together in Annex B was not ruled out.
Thus the odds were sti l l 24/50, or 48%. Another way of viewi ng this i s as
fl lows: Brother X could be assigned equally K ei ther Annex A or Annex B.
Whether it i s B rather than A doesn't affct the number of cases where Kare
together. Thi s shows that i nformation revealed may or may not be relevant
to the question at hand. If the annexes had di fri ng numbers of rooms,
however, the i nitial placement of Brother X would afct the odds of Kbeing
together i n one annex.
QUESTION #3 Now that Xavier and the Tulleys are in Annex A, what are the
odds that the Krafs will end up in Annex B?
ANSWER #3 There are thi rteen ocurrences where Oare together in Annex
A and K is in Annex B, compared K eleven ocurrences where al l three are i n
Annex A. Therefre the odds of K being separated from the other to parties,
and maki ng both Mr. and Mrs. Kraf happy with the arrangements, are up K
54%. Henry breathes a litle easier.
TbcastotcLap|accbasdoncb|sjobwc||,astb|s|ndccdprovcstobctbcp|accmcnt.
|Ibc badovcrbcardZoc's|ood wb|spcr, bc m|gbt bavc bccnsobjcctcd towbat
|sknownasaKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc. Tbcrcarctwovacanc|cs|nAnncxAandonc
|n Anncx . Astbc KrahsandT o||cysarc bcst scparatcd, tbc Krahswoo|dbc
cboscnhrsttogoa|onc toAnncx andasrotbcrXav|crwasano|dcostomcr,
bcwoo|dgcttbcbcstromava||ab|c|nAnncx A. |otanotbcrway,Lap|accwas
||m|tcdtoas|ng|ccbo|cc|KraIts|nAnncxl|nordcrtobcstso|ttbccond|t|ons.
SotbcKcard|sp|aycdhnt,andtbcXcard|sp|aycd ncxt.
Wbcntbcrc|sabas|sIorprcIcrcnccoIonccardovcranotbcr,tbcp|accmcnt
oItbcgocsts |ssobjccttorcstr|ct|onsand |snotrandom. |ILap|accannoonccs
hrsttbattbcKrahsarc|nAnncx ,tbcoddstbattbcT o||cysarca|so|nAnncx
bavcbccnrcdoccd,g|vcntbatonc |sawarcoItbcprcIcrcncc. |ndccd, |Itbc
To||cys arc a|so |n Anncx , Lap|acc m|gbt bavc annoonccd tbat |nIormat|oo
| 44 I ne, Promi|iaMlnfaron
hrst, wh|ch |n |tsc||rcJuccs thc oJJs o|thc|r shar|ng the same annex by ha||
asthcrc|snoapparcnt rcason why thc Kra|ts shou|J bcannounccJ hrst. Th|s
rcason|ngapp||csa|sotothcp|ayo|carJsatthcbr|Jgctab|e.Whcnonco|two
cqu|va|cntcarJsappcars|om aJc|cnJcr, thcoJJso|thcothcrcqu|va|cntcarJ
bc|ng|n thc samc hanJ arc rcJuccJby thc mcrc |actthat thc othcrcqu|va|cnt
carJcou|Jhavcbccnp|aycJj ustascas||y|||twcrc|nthcsamchanJ.
Back to Pascal's Tri angle
Thc Htc|du |arad|s |sj ostonco|manyana|og|csoncm|gbt |nvcnt to makc
thc mathcmat|cs p|aus|b|c, but |s |t a va||d approacb' Not rca||y - tbc rca|
wor|J |s not mcant to modc| matbcmat|cs, ratbcr tbc otbcr way arounJ. Tbc
comp|cx|t|cs o|rca||ty on|y scnc to |ntrodc opon tbc s|mp||c|ty o|numbcrs.
Lct's ||m|toursc|vcstocardsandsccbowamatbcmat|c|anm|gbtapproacbtbc
pnb|cmo|ca|cu|at|ngtbcprobab|||tyo|aZ- I sp||t. Cardcomb|nat|onsarctbc
kcy and |asca|'sTr|ang|c tbc |ok, so pot tbc kcy |n tbc |ock, tum |t and tbc
Joorso|pcrccpt|onsw|ngw|dc.
Lct'srctumtotbcmatbcmat|ca|prob|cm|accd|ntbcHtc|du|arad|sstory
but now tb|nk o|cards ratbcr tban pcop|c. Sopposc wc w|sb to ca|co|atc |or
twohanJs |WcstandbastItbcprobab|||tyo|J-OandZ- I sp||ts|ortbrccknown
spaJcs. To g|vc tbc prob|cm pbys|ca||ty, |mag|nc tbat tbc spadcs arc rcmovcd
|omthcdcckand tbrccspadcsarccboscnIor rc|ocat|on,tbcK, tbcI Oand
thc7. Tbccards|ntbcrcma|n|ngso|tsarcdca|t|ntotbrccp||cso|tb|rtccnand
oocp||c |srcmovcdhommrtbcra|tcrat|on. Tbctwop||csrcma|n|ngw|||scrvc
asthcdc|cndcr'sbands. From tbcsc, tbrccknowncardsarc sc|cctcd atrandom,
s+ythc,tbc0Bandtbc4Z. Tbcscknowncardsarcrcp|accd|ntbc|rp||csand
thctwcnty-s|xcardsarcsbomcdanddca|t |ntoWcstandbastbands.
Thcdca|crnowaskstbatWcstorbastg|vcb|mtbc. |nrctum,bcg|vcs
o
oc
o|thctbrccspadcsIaccdow. Tbcprocss|srcpcatcdunt||tbctbrccspadcs
h+vca||bccnp|accdw|tbWcstorbast. AItcrtb|sproccss|scomp|ctc,wbatarc
th
cpm
bab|||t|cso|aZ- I sp||tandaJ-Osp|| t' Tb|sca|cu|at|oncanbcmadcw|tb
re|crcncctotbcnon-spadcs. Howmanycomb|nat|onscanoccur||tbc, tbc
\d
aoJthc4Z arc a|| |ntbcWcstband' Tbc answcr |stbcnumbcro|ways |n
h|chtcncardscanbccboscnhomtwcnty-tbrcctoh||tbcvacantp|accs|ntbc
W
csthand. Wc know tb|s answcr |sa b|g nombcr. |nIact|t |s I , I 44,O. How
9
+nywayscanc|cvcncardsbccboscn' Ab|ggcrnumbcr. I ,JZ,O7B.
Whatcompc|smatbcmat|c|anstospr|ngtbcscbugcnumbcrsonthcrcadcr'
| -th|s
Jcs|rcto|mprcssanymorccommcndab|ctbanagor|||abcat|ngb| scbcst '
|erhapsbyquot|nga nombcr, onc conqucrs onc's|caro||t. At any ratc, tbcsc
,

9
bcrs
o|comb|nat|ons, |mprcss|vc tbougb tbcy bc, arc o| ||tt|c osc at tbc
Cmpt4 l Cm|mt|maMPamt|m I 45
I
br|dgctab|c. Howcvcr, bc|p |sontbcway. Hcrc, tbcpomosc|stodcmonstratc
tbcmctbodbywb|cbtbcscnombcrsarcdcr|vcd.
IIonc dca|s w|tb rat|os, tbc b|gnombcrsrcdocc to ||tt|c nombcrs, |n tb|s
casc I IlI J, wb|cb mcans tbat Ior cvcryc|cvcn t|mcs a J-O sp||toccors, tbcrc
arc tb|nccn oconcnccs oI a Z- I sp||t. |D tbcsc nombcrs soond Iam|||ar'I
Dob|c tbcsc nombcrs to accoont Iortbc0-J and I -Z sp||ts. To gcttbctota|
nombcrsoIcomb|nat|ons, wc most mo|t|p|y by thcnombroIcomb|nat|onsoI
tbctbrccspadcstobcsobst|totcd|ntbcthrccvacantp|accs. InaJ-0sp||t,tbcrc
|son|y onc way poss|b|c, botIora Z- I sp||t thcrc arc thrcc poss|b|c s|ng|ctons
-sowcbavcc|cvcn J-0cascsandJx I Jortb|ny-n|ncZ- I cascs. 5oIorcvcry
twcnty-twocomb|nat|onscncompass|ng0-JorJ-0sp||ts,tbcrcarcscvcnty-c|gbt
comb|nat|ons|nvo|v|ngZ- I or I -Zsp||ts. Inothcrwords,thcovcra||probab|||ty
oIaZ- I sp||t|s7B%,andoIaJ-0sp||t,ZZ%.
Tb|srcso|t|stbcsamcasoncobta|nsos|ngthcHtc|doFarad|smodc|and
work|nghomtbcotbcrcndoIFasca|'sTr|ang|c,as|t wcm. Howcvcr,to|mag|nc
tbcgocsts cxcbang|ng roms a m||||ont|mcsdor|ng a sbonstayrathcrbogg|cs
tbc m|nd. It |sbcttcrtogctawayhomtbchotbacband,ondcrtbc ombrc||a
oImatbcmat|cs,co||yIoostbcm|ndontbcrat|ooIthccomb|nat|ons,bccaosc
tbatIomo|at|oncanbcapp||cdw|tbootconms|ontomanyd|hcrcnts|toat|ons.
The Plot Thickens
Wbcn Hcnnsaysto tbat tbcodsarc tbat thcywon'tsbarcananncx w|tb
tbcTo||cys,bowsorccanbcbcthatbc|snotw|gg||ngootoIdo|ngabosband's
dotytocnsorctbccontcntmcntoIad|scr|m|nat|ngsposc' FcrbapsbchasIoond
oot morc abot tbc p|accmcntoItbc rcs|dcnt gocsts - |npan|co|ar, wbctbcr
tbcrc|san|mba|ancc|ntbcnombroIvacanc|cstobmadcava||ab|c. Itwoo|d
bcpormanagcmcnt |Itbc ass|stant managcr|ncbamchadno|dcabowmany
oIb|sgocstswoo|dbcdcpan|ngonanyg|vcnday,sothcprcv|oosmodc|,wb|cb
assomcsmax|mom|gnorancc|ntbatmgard,|snotappropr|atc.
Lct's|okatbowtbcoddscbangc|Isomcgocsuarcknowntobstay|ngon
sotbatAnncxA basj ostscvcnpss|b|cvacanc|cstoAnncxb'shvc. Wccan
constrocta tab|coItbcnombcroIposs|b|ccomb|nat|onswhcnIoonccnoItbc
twcnty-s|xromsw|||notbcomcava||ab|c.
Arrangement |Annex A |Annex B
K 2 1 6
O K 2 1 1 4
K T 2 1 1 4
K X 2 1 1 4
'|IAnncx ^ mcans K arc |n A, ctc. Hcrc tbc tota| nombcr oInoma||tcd
occoncnccs|s I JZ.
Lct'srcv|s|ttbcsamctbrccqocst|onsondcrtbcscncwcond|t|ons.
QUESTION # 1 How close i s Henry Kraf to tel l i ng a b when he says that the
Tulleys assuredly wil l be assigned a difrent Annex* The number in which K
and T don't appear toether is 70. Therefre the chance of the Krafs and the
Tulleys not sharing the same annex i s now up K 53% (70/1 32) .
Tcprcv|ooshgorc 5Z%app||cswhcn any rom hasancqoa|chanccoIbc|ng
vacatcd. T|s|sanammprobab|||tycst|matcd|nacomp|ctcstatcoIonccrta|nty
asIar3Kmh|sconccmcd. Thchgorc5J%app||cswhcnKmhknowssomcth|ng
aboot tbc nombroIcxc|os|ons. Thc unccrta|nty |srcdoccdby thc add|t|ona|
know|cdgc, wh|ch g|vcs a nomcr|ca| advantagc to onc anncx ovcr tbc othcr.
Tcrcdoct|on|nthctota|andthc|mba|anccoImo|nthcnombnoIvacanc|cs
havcnotbada|argcchcct.
QUESTION #2 How did the fct that Brother Xavier was assigned K Annex
A afct the odds of K and T bing assigned the same annex?
Tc nombcroIcomb|nat|onswhcmK appartogcthcr|sJ5| ZI |nAnncx A
w|tb X and I 1|n Anncx B w|thootXI, so thc odsoIthc|r b|ng togcthcr |s
rcdoccd toJ5I77or15. 5%. bcaoscoIthc |mba|ancc,thcass|gnmcntoIK |s
not |ndcpcndcntoIthatoIX. (Wit tcgd K Hc, 0 h K acmtd|notK
accept atgmuthatmvcti aM|y|ngsampoon0att namNojvaanc|cs
are mnccdNtucW h. )
QUESTION #3 How di d the fct that X and T were assigned K Annex A
afct the ods that the Krafs would end up in Annex B?
1c
oddsbIorcass|gnmcntwcmhvcootoItwc|vcor1Z%ascxpcctcd.W|thX
and T
ass|gncdtoAnncxA,thcvacanc|cs|nAandB bcamcba|anccdathvc|n
ea
c
h, sotbcoddsr|scto50%. Th|s|sastatcoImax|mumonccrta|ntyastowhcrc
thcncxtvacancyw|||ocor. (W pmy|ngaHchand,dcmtmmtkcpoak
o
f rh v=anc|cs|nmdKkcpoakojt s|h|mmom|||ocs0athavcab|ngm
dcisi
o
R acm. )
|
bopc th|s ||tt|c ston h bth amoscd and |nIormcd. Ca|co|at|ng
p
rccntagcs |s as casy as kccp|ng tmck oIcomb|nat|ons. In what Io||ows, wc
-h
a||
bc |ntcrcstcd ma|n|y |n s|mp|c dcc|s|on-mak|ng procsscs Ior wh|ch thc
ke
y
|swb|chact|onaddrccsthcgrcatcrnombroIcomb|nat|onsthatrcprcscnt
s
u
cc
e
ss
. l
ct's
rctomtothcbr|dgctab|candgctbacktowork app|y|ngwhatwc
h
av
c
|ca
mcdabotcomb|nat|onsandpcmotat|ons.
Card Combi nati ons
Card comb|nat|ons | ncach so|tarc thc bo||d|ng b|ocksoIa br|dgc hand. nc
dcscr|bcsahandas' 5JJZ' , |mpart|ngthcIactthatthchandconta|nsoncso|toI
hvc-card|cngth,twooIthrcc-card|cngth,andoncdoob|cton. Tobcspcc|hc,onc
wr|tcsJ5JZto |nd|catcthatthchvc-cardsu|twashcartsandthcdoob|cton,
c|obs.
Thccardshc|djo|nt|ybydcIcndcrscanbd|v|dcd|nscvcm|ways. It|sthc
rat|ooIthcnumbcroIcardshc|d that |s|mpnantw|th rcgam toprobab|||ty.
Lt's start w|th a ho|d|ng oI thmc cards and bu||d hom thcrc. Tcrc arc Ioor
poss|b|csp||ts.
CombInmons
3 - 0 selit 2 - 1 spl it
1 3
1 - 2 split 0 - 3 spl it
3 1
ThcnumbcroIcomb|nat|onscanbsccn|mmcd|atc|ytobthoscshownabvc.
Ioorcardscanbcsp||t|nhvcways.
Spl its
Combi nations
Thc nombcnoIcomb|nat|onscanb Iound |nFasca|'sTr|ang|c, but thcm |sa
waytorcca||thcmconvcn|cnt|yatthcbr|dgctab|c.IIoncw|shcstocompamthc
nombcroIcomb|nat|onsoIaccna|nnumbcroIcardssp||tbtwccn mohands,
oncnccdon|ya||gnthcsp||tsw|ththc|argcrnumbronthc|chstan|ngw|ththc
mostcvcnsp||tasIo||ows.
Adjacent Ratios
Full Ratios
Combi nations
2 - 2
1
1
6
3 - 1
2/3
2/3
4
4 - 0
1 /4
1 /6
1
(2/3)x( 1 /4) 1 /6
Kcadacrossthcvcntop||nc |nth|s tab|c. thcadjacent rto |smcrc|ythcmt|o
oIthc|astnombronthc |chtothchntnumbronthcr|ght. 5othc I oIJ- I
andthc1oI1-0g|vcusthc I I1adjaccntmt|oIorthctwosp||ts. Tatg|vcsthc
rat|ooIthctwocomb|nat|ons|nvo|vcd. Tcm||mt|ow|thmspct tothcmost
cvcnsp||t |sthcprodoctoIthc|ntcncn|ngadjaccntmt|os.
2/3 1 /4 2/1 2 1 /6
Thc1-0sp||thasj ustoncpss|b|||ty,5 toobta|nthc numbnoIcomb|nat|ons
Iorcach sp||t, mu|t|p|y thc m|| mt|os by thc dcnom|nator, |n th|s casc , and
I A l M.3.> O KNll~ nd lnl~nm
vo||al Tbcrc arc tbc cocmc|cnts oI |asca|'s Tr|ang|c. 1 -4-6-4- 1 . Let's do two
morcIorcasyrcIcrcncc.
3 - 2
Adjacent Ratios
Full Ratios
Combi nations
! 0
4 - I
I /2
I /2
s
S - 0
I /5
I / I 0
!
Tbc ZhomJ-Zandtbc4hom4- l g|vcosanadjaccnt rat|ooIZ/4 wb|cb |stbc
samc I /Z. 5|m||ar|ywchavctbc l hom4- l andtbc J hom J-Og|v|ngos I /J
|n tbc |astco|omn.TbcprodoctoItbcsc two |s l/lO, wb|ch |s tbc m|| rat|o |n
thc|astco|omn.
Adjacent Ratios
Full Ratios
Combi nations
!
20
4 - 2
3/4
3/4
! 5
5 - !
2/5
3/! 0

- 0
! /
! /20
!
|n pract|cc, wc osc tbc rat|os mom than thc nombrs oIcomb|nat|ons. Wby'
6caosc probab|||t|csarc rat|os oIcardcomb|nat|ons. Tbat makcs ||Ic s|mp|cr,
botkccp|nm|ndtbatwcarcdca||ngw|thrc|at|vcnombcrsoIcardcomb|nat|ons
tatbcr tban somc abstract qoant|n w|th mag|ca| propcrt|cs wc can takc Ior
gmntcd.
Mcxt|ct's|okatthcnumbroIcomb|nat|onsIortwoso|ts,c|gbtspadcsand
six hcarts. 5opposcwcknowthatLHhasc|ghtcards|ntbcmajors,andKH
six. Wb|cboItbctwocascsb|owhastbc|argcrnombcroIcomb|nat|ons '
Ratios
Normal i zed
CondMonI
s - 3 [0. 8|
v 3 - 3
0. 8
L
CondMon ll

4 - 4
v4 - 2 [0. 75|
0. 75
[ ! 5/! |C
Te nombcrsoIcomb|nat|ons|nthctwoso|ts|stbcprodoctoItbcnombctsoI
comb|nat|ons |n cach so|ttakcnscpamtc|y. Tbc tota| nombcroIcomb|nat|ons

rCond|t|onI |dcnotcdby thccap|ta| |cttcrCI |s l l ZOand IorCond|t|on II,

| OiO. Tbcrat|ooIthcsctwo| sl J/l . Tbcrat|ocanbcca|co|atcdd|rcct|yhom
th
rat|os Ior thc two so|ts takcn |nd|v|doa||y, sbown |n brackcts, so |t |s not
n
ccssarytoca|cu|atcthctota|nombcroIcomb|nat|ons.
Wb|cb
cond|t|on |stbcmorcpmbab|c' Tatdcpcndson tbcd|str|bot|on

thc m|norso|ts. As |t|sknownthat tbc m|norso|ts takcn togctbcrarcsp||t

7
|nbothcascs,Cnd|t|onI |sthcmorcprobab|cas|tcontr|botcstbcgrcatcr
n
ub
croIcomb|nat|ons.
Cmm4 I CmmamaMFamd | 49 |
Comparisons of Even and Odd Splits
TmGoLvc0scojotdctcdm|m.
- 5ophoc|cs|49-4ObI
Indcc|s|onmak|ng,oncnccdon|ybcconccmcdw|ththcrat|ooIcomb|nat|ons
Ior a g|vcn sp||trc|at|vc tothc max|mumposs|b|cIora g|vcn numbcroIcards
|nthcsu|t. nc mustkccp |n m|nd thatodd numbcrs andcvcn numbcrshavc
d|hcrcnt propcn|cs. 5p||tsIorodd numbcn oIcards havc thc grcatcr ratcs oI
rcduct|on, so thc d|hcrcncc btwccn thc most probab|c sp||t and thc sccond-
most |sgrcatcr. Hcrcarcthc rcsu|tsIorsomccommonsp||tsand thc|radjaccnt
sp||ts.
Even Numbered Suits Odd Numbered Suits
Split Next Fraction Deimal Split Next Fraction Decimal
5-5 5/6 0. 83 4/6 0. 67
4 5-3 4/5 0. 80 4 5-2 3/5 0.60
3-3 4-2 3/4 0. 75 3-2 4- 1 2/4 0.50
2-2 3-1 2/3 0. 67 2- 1 3
.
1 /3 0. 33
Thcgmatcstrcduct|onsocurwhcnanuncvcnsp||toIanoddnumbroIcards
|s madc morc uncvcn, Iorcxamp|c a J-Z sp||t |s changcd to a 4- l sp||t | 5O%
rcdoct|on|nthcnumbcroIcomb|nat|onsI. Ccnacr|t|ca|dcc|s|ondur|ngthc
p|ay|swhcthcrthcdcIcndcn's|xcards |nasu|tw|||d|v|dcJ-Jor4-Z. but thcsc
numbcrscannotbcv|cwcd|n |so|at|on.
Wcsaw abvc that whcn |ok|ngat twosu|ts,onc oIc|ghtcardsand thc
othcr oIs|x, thcrc arc morc comb|nat|ons w|th thc shoncrsu|tJ-J, bccaosc a
5-J brcak |n thc |ongcr su|t |s morc probab|c than a 4-Z sp||t |n thc shoncr.
Howcvcr, |Ithc |ongcrsu|thc|d by thc oppos|t|on |sodd |nnumbcr, thcn thc
|csscrmduct|on |sach|cvcdbychang|ngaJ-Jsp||ttoa4-Zsp||t|a rcduct|onto
75%I. Th|sIavonthcassumpt|onoIa4-Zsp||tovcraJ-Jsp||t.
It|s |mponant torca||tc thatsu|tscncompass|ngancvcnnumbcroIcards
mustbctrcatcdd|hcrcnt|yhomsu|tscncompass|nganoddnumbcroIcards. Thc
Iam|||arm|c oI'L|ght-Lvcr' ho|dsun|vcna||y, but thc m|coI'N|nc-Ncvcr'has
cond|t|ons attachcd, aswc sha|| d|scovcr |nthc ncxt chaptcr. Thc d|hcrcnccs
arc rc|atcd d|rcct|y to thc Iact that w|th 'L|ght-Lvcr' thc numbcr oI m|ss|ng
cards |nvo|vcd |s hvc, anodd numbcr, whcrcas w|th 'N|nc-Ncvcr' thc numbcr
oIm|ss|ngcards |nvo|vcd |sIour,ancvcnnumbcr.W|ththrccorhvccardshc
|d
by thc dcIcndcn, hncss|ng Ior thc m|ss|ng honor a|ways rcprcscnts a bcttcr
propos|t|onthanp|ay|ngIorthcdrop,howcvcr,w|thtwo,Iour,ors|xcardshc|d
bythcdcIcndcrs,thcdrop|sprcIcncdundcrsomcc|rcumstanccs,dcpcnd|ngon
thcnumbcroIvacantp|accsava||ab|c.
CHAPTERS
bNVLN|PLLLb
Happytmo uoknoust rcmm uy.
V|rg||( 70- I 9bI
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.

`
' 4
Thc0mmoddsandvacantp|accca|cu|at|onsoIthcodshavcth|s|ncommon.
theybotbrc|yonthc numbcnoIcardcomb|nat|onsposs|b|c |nsu|ts thathavc
notbccnp|aycd. InthcIormcrs|tuat|on,nosu|thasbccnp|aycd,soa||so|tsarc
invo|vcJ. In thc |attcrs|tuat|on,somcsu|tshavcbccnp|aycd, butsomcrcma|n
h bcp|aycd. Lthoscthatrcma|ntobcp|aycd, |t|sassumcdthcrc|sancqoa|
possibi||tyoIthc|rcardshav|ngbccndca|ttoc|thcrhand.
Most dcc|arcn havc a work|ng know|cdgc oIthc amm odds conccm|ng
themostcommon sp||ts. Thcscoddsappcar|nmanyboks, butthcyarcoItcn
isintcmrctcd as bc|ng thc una|tcrab|c odds that govcm thc dca|. A bcttcr
intcmrctat|on |s that thcsc arc thc odds undcr thc cond|t|on oI max|mum
ignorancc w|th rcgard tothcdca| abut to b p|aycd. nccthccond|t|onoI
aximom|gnorancc|schangcd,thcodsmustncccssar||ychangc,but|t|sohcn
thecascthatthcchangcsarcsma|||nthccar|ystagcsoIthcb|dd|ngandp|ay. 5o
the0 mmoddsrcma|nauscm|gu|dc|nacond|t|onoIh|ghunccrta|ntywhcrc
thercdocsn't appcartobccv|dcnccoIan|mba|ancc|nthc vacant p|accs,akcy
attribotc.
It is|mportanttoundcntandhowthcammoddsarcan|vcdat|nordcrto
co

prcbcnd what assumpt|ons ||c bh|nd thc probab|||ty hgurcs. Thc rcason
this
pointcomcsuprcpatcd|y |nth|sb k|sthatthcrchasnot|nthcpastbccn
eno
u
gh cmpbas|spotonthcIactthatthcoddsmustbcrc|atcdtowbat|sknown
at thc timcoIdcc|s|on. Lt'snow|okathowonc dcr|vcs thcammodds |n
o
rJcr
to ondcntand how thcsc arc rc|atcd to a statc oI max|mum |gnorancc.
We bcgin
w|th thc cascoIs|x cards hc|d |nonc su|t. Hcrc arc thc common|y
tatedoddstogcthcrw|ththcnumbrsoIcardcomb|nat|onsasstatcd|nFasca|'s
Tria
ng|c.
Cord
Sp
lit
C
ombi nati ons
~
riori
Odds (%)
6 - 0
1
0. 75
5 . 1
6
7. 3
4 - 2
1 0
24. 2
3 - 3
1 5
35. 5
2 - 4
1 0
24. 2
u
6
7. 3 0. 75
We shall now show how to derive these fgures from frst principles, as we did
in the story of the Hotel du Paradis. just li ke the problem faci ng our Assistan
t
Manager, thi s involves consideration of vacant pacc which is simply th
e
number of slots in each hand whose occupancy is unknown. During the bid
di n
and play, we di scover something about tbc unsccnbanJs, |cav|ng|cwcrvacan
t
p|accs|orcards wbosclocations wcarcattempti ng togucss.
bacb band conta|ns tb|rtccn cards. |||t |s spcc|hcd tbat LH bo|Js
six
c|obs,say, tbcnKHbo|dsnonc. Tbat |cavcsscvcnvacantp|accson tbc left
andtb|rtccnontbc r|gbt tobch||cd w|tbcardshomtbc otbcrso|ts. nc
Rd\
|mag|nctak|ngtwcnty cards atrandomhoma dcck cxc|ud|ngc|obs|norJer to
h|| tbcvacantp|accs,dca||ngscvcntotbc|c|tandtb|rtccntotbcr|gbt.|n fa
c
t,
tbc nombcroIposs|b|c comb|nat|ons Ior tbcsc cards oots|dc tbc c|obs cqu+|.
ZO! I| I J! 7 ! l '
|ILHbo|dstbrccc|obsandKHbo|dstbrccc|obs,sotbattbcrcareten
vacant spaccs a s|dc, tbc nombcr oIposs|b|c card comb|nat|ons cqua|s. 1
O
' j
| I O! x I O! l . Tbc rc|at|vc probab|||ty o|tbc twocond|t|ons |s tbc rat|o of th
e
nombcro|poss|b|ccardcomb|nat|ons. |npart|co|ar,tbcrat|oo|tbc-OoutsiJc
comb|nat|onstoJ-Jcomb|nat|onscqoa|s | l J ! x7 ! l/| I O! x I O! l.
Wcca||tb| sproport|ontbcoots|dccardrat|o. |nordcrtogcttoprobabilitieq
oncmost|nc|odctbcposs|b|ccomb|nat|onsw|tb|ntbcc|obso|t|tsc||,which arc
g|vcnby|asca|'sTr|ang|c, I |or-Osp||tandZOIortbcJ-J sp||t. Tbcresulti
n
g
rat|oo|tota| comb|nat|onsrcprcscntstbcrc|at|vcprobab|||tyo|a-Ospli t h
J-Jsp||t.
Tbc|o||ow|ngtab|csommar|:cstbcscrcso|tsIora||tbcpos|b|csp||tsof si \
cards.
Cl ub
Spl it Outside Card Ratio Combi nations Full Ratio Probabi l if Weights
3 - 3 1 20 1 . 0 0. 355 44
4 - 2 1 011 1 1 5 0. 682 0. 242 30
2 - 4 1 011 1 1 5 0. 682 0. 242 30
5 - 1 ( 1 Ox9) I ( 1 1 x 1 2) 6 0. 205 0. 073
9
1 . 5 ( 1 Ox9) I ( 1 1 x 1 2) 6 0. 205 0. 073
9
6 - 0 ( 1 0x9x8) I ( 1 1 x1 2x1 3) 0. 02 1 0.007
0 - 6 ( 1 0x9x8) I ( 1 1 x1 2x1 3) 0.02 1 0. 007
1
Sum 2. 8 1 6 1 . 00 1 24
! . If you're reading this bok at all, you must surely b fmi l i ar with the fctori al
nOld|' 0^
whereby n| n A [o! [ A [o2[A . . . . A 2A ! .
[ 52 I ne, Fom|||aMlnfc
T
h
e
.
u
mo|thc |o|| rat|os rcprcscnt|ngrc|at|vcpobab|||t|es |m wc|ghtsI |snot
|
w
h
ereas probab|||t|csbyJchn|t|on must add to l . T|s |scas||y rect ifed by
,l t d
Ji ng
thc |ormcr by thc|r som, Z. BI . Tc rcso|tant pobab|||t|cs arc what
.
rr
ear |n
tab|cso|apnm|odJs.
In
thcana|ys|so|somccomb|nat|ons,|t|smorcsat|sh|ngtoca|co|atcos|ng
1 1
1
regers rather thanIract|ons.|robab|||t|cscanbcmo|t|p| |cdbya|argcnombcr
1 1
1
1lr
Jer
to
ach|cvc an |ntcgcr rcprcscntat|on oIthc rc|at|vc strcngths o|tbc
,. ,,r
ious
co
mb|nat|ons. Wbcthcronccmp|oystbc m|| rat|o,tbcprobab|||t|cs,or
r he i nteger wc|ghts|samattcroIconvcn|cncc. |ntbcana|ys|soItbcIo||ow|ng
,leal , the |nt
egcrwc|gbtsarcoscd.
What
Jocsth|stc||osaboottbcassompt|onsbch|ndtbcapt|ot|odds ' Wc
-e
rh
at thcm|ss|ngcards|n tbcotbcrso|tsarc trcatcdcqoa||y. |Ioncwcrc|n tbc
1
,
1
,

i
t
ion atthctab|coIca|co|at|ngoddsbascdontbcm|ss|ngcards|nso|tswb|cb
h|v
not bccnp|aycd,onccoo|d |mag|nctbcrcma|n|ngdcIcndcn'cardsbc|ng
(1
,
1 Jected, rcsho0|cd,andrcdca|tj ostastbcywcrcattbcbcg|nn|ng. Tbcprocss
\V1 ,uf J be thc samc, a random dca| oIonknown cards, bot tbc rcso|ts coo|d bc
much Ji ferent . A rcsbomc oItbc dcIcndcrs' onknown cards may dcstmy an
cential |catorc oI tbc dca| bc|ng p|aycd. Osoa||y, bot not a|ways, tbcrc arc
mterences to bc drawn hom tbc b|dd|ng orp|ay. Lt's cons|dcra 'porc' band
where the assompt|onoItbcam|m|oddsrcprcscntstbcbcstapproacb.
0| dMIProblem
'The matt| sapcncct|ymwo' |mjkcdm 0uma| n0d|tcct|on
o
f
th ol |at) , 'auttctcatcp|nu|nconncct|onu|t|tu|a|atcnot
cnt|tc|ydcvo|doj|nmcstandcvcnoj|mtmct|on. '
Shcr|ockHo|mcs|nTmAdvcntutcsojS|ct|ockHo|mcsbyS|r
ArtborConanDy|c| I BJ9- I 9JOl
| n lu e
xcc||cnt bok Ior |ntcrmcd|atcp|aycrs,Sp0 Sp Catd Fmy|nSu|u,
hn
+n Senior |ays down 3 procdorc Ior dcc|arcr to Io||ow oncc bc bas sccn
h
c openi ng
|cad and tbcdommy. Stcp I |s 'Coontyoor tr|cks'. |robab|| |ty
l . l culations
cntcrasanaItcrtboogbt|Irc|cvanttotbcdca|. H|sHand J7 |san
l l
l t ruc
ti ve cxamp|c.

Q 1 0 9 7 6 3
< 7
<
AJ 3
+
A 5 2
K J 8
A K Q
< Q 7 6 2
4 K 8 4
2<
4NT

Cmpm5 l A Pt|ot|OaoJVaaorPmes I 5J l
The|eaJ|stheJ anJthcrcaJcr|saskcJwbctbcr|t|sbcttcrtotakctbcJ|amonJ
hncsset toJ|scarJtwoJ|amonJsonthchcartsanJtrytorodoottbc9K. An
|nstantJcc|s|on|sreqo|rcJ|norJcrtoma|nta|ntbccntr|cs|nJommyncccssary
IortworodsanJac|a|m.
Scn|orstatcs |t|sbcst top|aytobr|ngdowntbc0K,sotbcrccommcnJc
d
||nc|stoJ|scarJtwoJ|amonJs|mmcJ|atc|yontbcKanJtbc,crosstotbc
0A,tbcnp|aya tromptoJommy. W|tb tbrcccntr|cstoJommy, oncmaybopc
todroptbc9Kbytbctb|rdroondoItbcso|t,tbcnosctbc4Kasancntntop|ay
tbcnow-cstab||sbcdO.
H|s argomcnt rc| |cs on tbc a mm probab|||t|cs g|vcn |n tbc tab|c abovc.
TbcJropsoccccdsona|| J-Jbrcaks|JJ. J%landononc-tb|rdoItbc4-Z orZ-4
brcakswbcntbc0Kdropsdoob|cton | I . Z%l. Tbc tota|oItbcscprobab|||t|cs
|s J I . 7%,wb|cb |sbcttcrtbantbc JO%Iora hncssc. Tbc |c|ngontbccakc |s
anaddcd Z.4%Ior tbc poss|b|||tyoItbc0KIa|||ngs|ng|cton,g|v|nganovcra||
probab|||tyoIJ4%.
|t|snatora|Ioran|ncxpcr|cnccddcc|arcrtograsptbconcposs|b|||tystar|ng
b|m|ntbcIacc,ad|amondhncssc. Tbcpo|ntoIScn|or's|nstmct|on|stoopcn
tbcm|nd totbcposs|b|||tyoIan|nd|rcctp|ay,mmngoot tbc0K. Kccogn|t|on
|stbc kcy. |n TcAvmmtcoj0 |m Cmmk, opon |ok|ngatan o|J bat
d|scarJcd at n|gbt |n Gogc Strcct, L Watson sccs ||tt|c morc tban a Ic|t
battbatbassccnbcttcrdays,botSbcr|okHo|mcscandcdocca |otabootthc
onknown owncr. Somc oIHo|mcs' assompt|ons arc Iao|n- Ior cxamp|c, hc
conc|oJcstbatbccaosc tbc owncr's bat s|:c |s |amc,bc mostb |ntc||cctoa|on
tbc groonJs tbat 'a man w|tbso |argc a bra|nmostbavc somctb|ngw|tb|n |t.'
HcaccoscsWatsonoIbc|ngtot|m|d|nb|s|nIcrcnccs.
Tbcgoddotor |s |n tbc pos|t|on oItbc dcc|arcron tb|sdca| |n tbathc
assomcs an att|todc oImax|mom onccna|nn. Iorcxamp|c, wbat sboo|d onc
makc oItbc |cad oItbc j ' |s |t hom |cngtborsbonncss ' Asa tmmp |caJ is
pcrIcct|ysaIc, dos tbc bcan |cad |ncrcasc tbc cbanccs tbat tbc opcn|ng|cadcr
bo|dstbc0K' WbatoItbc|ackoIb|dd|ngbytbcdcIcndcn' Dstbat|nd|catc
ba|anccd banJs ' |nanswcrtosocb qocst|ons, Watsonwoo|d rcp|ys|mp|yanJ
corrcct|y, '| don'tknow.'
tb|s band, |t |snot saIc toattcmpttogatbcr |nIomat|on and g|vc tbc
dcIcnJcrs3 sccondcbanccatdcIcat|ngtbccontmct,soadcc|s|onmostbmaJc
|na statc oImax|momonccrta|ntyas rc0cctcd |ntbca modds. Ondcrtbat
cond|t|on,tbcoddsoIasocccssm|d|amondhncsscarcJO%. Scn|orbasg|vcnu>
tbcanswcr, bot |ct's|nvcst|gatctbcoddsos|ngtbctab|coIwc|gbts g|vcnabo
vc
Tbc rcso|ts bc|ow g|vc tbc odds |n Iavor oItbc drop wbcn var|oos sp||ts
arc
|nc|odcd|ntbcca|co|at|on.
I 54 I nc, Fomi|aMInjmm
Splits Included Sum of Weights Drp
3-3 44 1 00%
3-3, 4-2 64 62%
3-3, 4-2, 5- 1 67 55%
3-3, 4-2, 5- 1 , 6- 67 54%
|I
on|v tbc 3,3 sp| |t |s a||owcJ, tbc Jrop oItbc9K |n tbrcc roonJs |s assorc
d
.
[
h|s|stbcs|ng|cmost| |kc|yoccorrcncc. |I|naJJ|t|on,a4-!anJa!-4sp| |tarc
a| |
owcJ, tbcpcrccntagcIa||sto6!%. |Itbc -I anJ I - sp||tsarc |nc|oJcJ, tbc
pcr
ccntagcIa||stoJJ%. F|na||y,tbcJrop|s|mposs|b|cona6-OorO-6sp| |t, anJ
th
e pcrcc
ntagcoIsocccssIa||ss||gbt|ytoJ4%,tbchgorcqootcJbyScn|orontbc
ba
s|soItbcammoJJs.
TbcammoJJsbascJonm|n|momknow|cJgca||owIor a|| sp||ts. |Ionc
wcrctobcg|nw|tbwbat |smostprobab|c, namc|y tbc J, 3 sp||t, p|ay|ngIor tbc
|mp|sb|gb|yIavorcJ. As|css| |kc|yconJ| t|onsarca||owcJ,tbcaJvantagcIortbc
JmpJccrcascsont||oncrcacbcstbccxtrcmcsoI|castprobab| | | tywbcrctbcJrop
has nocbanccwbatsocvcr.To pottb|s|nrcvcrsc,Jcc|arcr,| |kcSbcr|ockHo|mcs,
mav |nsomccascsJcJocc tbatcxtrcmcscanbc c||m| natcJhomcons|Jcrat|on
of thc cv|Jcncc. As cxtrcmcs at tbc bottom oItbc tab|c arc c||m|natcJ Irom
coos|Jcrat|on,tbc morccvcnsp||tsrcma|n, anJas onc progrcsscsoptbc tab|c,|t
becomcsmorcanJmorc| |kc|ytbatp|ay|ngIortbcJrop|scorrcct.
I pcrbaps grcatcr |mponancc |s tbc assompt|on tbat tbc probab|||tv
of succcss oItbc hncssc rcma|ns at O% tbroogboot. |I|nIormat|on coo|J bc
eathcrcJ tbat |nJ|catcJmorcJ|amonJswcrctobccxpcctcJontbcr|gbtoItbc
OAJ tcnacc tban on tbc |ch, tbcn tbc probab| || ty oIa socccssIo|hncssc woo|J
|ncrcasc abovc O%. tbcg|vcnJca|,Jcc|arcrsodcrs a J|saJvantagc |nnot
be|ngab|ctoJrawtmmpsanJsaIc|ycxp|orctbcposs|b|||t|cs.
When declarer i s fci ng a critical decision, he must atempt where possible
to replace the 0 priori odds with those that reflect the current state of
knowledge.
"4
t0IPlaces and Vari able Odds
SagcsandFoobmtcc|angctm|tm|o.
-Conmc|os| l -479CI
'
-0
d
cIcnJcr|sdca|ttb|nccncarJsattbcstan,sobcIorcab|J|smaJctbcrc|sa
b
!
|aocc|ntbcnombcroIvacantp|accs. TbcammoJJsarct|cJtotb|sba|ancc.
Cmpm5 l A Pt|ot|OanJVaanrPles I
55 I
Wbcn tbccarJsbavc bccn p|aycJoot,tbcrc aga|n|saba|anccoIvacantp|accs
-now |t |s nonc toa s|Jc. Dor|ngtbcp|ayoItbcJca|,vacantp|accsvary, s
o
tbcoddscbangc.
Sopposcadcc|arcrhasc|ghtspadcsandmostJcc|dcwb|cbdcIcndcrtohncssc
Iorthc m|ss|ng trompqoccn. II|noncroomthcdcIcndcrs|cadhcartstobcg|n
w|thanddcc|arcrd|scovcrsthcso|tsp||ts4-Z, |t|sconccttohncsscthroogh
the
dcIcndcrw|thIcwcrhcarts. II|nthcothcrroomthcdcIcndcrs|cadc|obs|nstcaJ
and dcc|arcrhnds thc su|t d|v|dcs J-J, hc shoo|d hncssc throogh thc dcIcndct
w|thIcwcrc|ubs. Tak|ngbothp|ays|ntoaccoont,oncsccsthatthcc|obsanJ
hcartstakcntogcthcrarcd|v|dcdcvcn|y,7 7,so|t|smax|ma||yonccrta|nwh|ch
dcIcndcrho|ds thc4. Lachdcc|arcrIaccdw|thacho|ccmakcsthcbcstp|av
bascd on thc |nIomat|on that |s ava||ab|c to h|m at thc t|mc. onc way bascJ
on thc c|ub sp||t, anothcr on thc hcart sp||t. bcausc wc havc thc add|t|ona|
|nIormat|onoIthcsp||ts|ntwosu|ts,wcrcachad|hcrcntconc|os|on.
Somcargucthatanopcn|ng|cad mustbc madc rcgard|css,so thcIactthat
oncso|t|schoscnovcrthcothcrshoo|dn'tahcctthcoddsonthcp|accmcntoIthe
tmmpqoccn. burkcand5m|thmadcthccascIorth|s|nthc|rbok,Counmu
K w|nn|ngmc. Howcvcr, thccho|ccoI|cad |sbascdonbr|dgc |og|c,soth

cho|ccconta|ns|nIormat|on-|nIormat|onthat|sopcnto|ntcmrctat|onto
b
e
surc. Dc|arcrsmustn't|gorcthcrcasonbch|ndthccho|cc. II|tahcctsthc||ne
oIp|ay,|tmostahcctthcprobab|||t|csaswc||.
Thcrc arc two k|nds oI |nIomat|on, 'hard' and 'soh'. Hard |nIomat|on
comcs hom scqocncc |cads and hom thc count oIthc cards |na su|t. Vacant
p|accsarc hard |nIomat|on. 5oh |nIomat|onrcqu|rcs |ntcmrctat|on |n tcms
oImot|vat|on - act|vc or pass|vc, cxpcctcd or uncxpcctcd. Kcgard|css oIth
n, |nIomat|on |s cxprcsscd opt|ma||y as a numbcr. In Chaptcr , wc sha||
|nvcst|gatc thc |dca oIsurpr|sc, a charactcr|st|c rc|atcd to probab|||ty - th
grcatcrthcsumr|sc,thc|css||kc|ythcocuncncc.
Anopponcntshou|dbcassomcdtomakcthc|cadthathcIcc|s|smost||kc|r
tobnchth|ss|dc'schanccsoIagodscorc. TmtumN. Thccv|dcncchcba-
toworkw|th |sthcauct|onandthccardshccanscc|nh|sowhand. Dcc|ater
hasthcauct|onash|sgu|dc,andonccthcopcn|ng|cad |smadc,somcwork|nc
assompt|onsarc |nordcr. Myapproach |stosugcstatcntat|vcassumpt|on
anJ
work hom thcrc. Lcoonc, a 0cx|b|c approach |s bcst, but not to thc cxtcnt
thatonc |gorcsthc |mp||cat|onsoIthc opcn|ng |cadandthc |nIomat|onthat
dummy prov|dcs rcgard|ngthcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs. 5othcqocst|on bccomcs,
^
moch|nIormat|on|sprov|dcd,andhowrc||ab|c|s|t '
Thc prob|cm |n |ts s|mp|cst Iom |s th|s. what cv|dcncc |s thcrc Ior 0

|mba|ancc |nthc vacant p|accsductoan uncvcn sp||t|nthc su|t |cd, and

^
mochcrcdcncccanbcp|accdonsochcv|dcncc'
[ 5 ) ne, PomaMInjm
Acting on the Information Available

et'ssayonag|vcnJca|,ontbc|caJoItbc47IromWcst,tbcvacantp|accsarc
sh||tcJsotbat Sootbj oJgcsthc0 tobcmorcprobab|yontbcr|gbtw|tbbast.

ortb
|stbcJcc|arcr|ntbcotbcrroomanJrccc|vcstbcopcn|ng|caJoItbc7
Ir
om
bast. NortbjoJgcstbc0 tobcmorc probab|y w|tb Wcst. Tak|ng tbc
_ po oJJs asa go|Jc |caJstotbc conc|os|on tbatc|tbcrJcc|arcrbasa JO-JO
c
hanccoIbc|ngconcct. bv|oos|ybotbJcc|arcrswon'tgct|tr|gbt, botwbat
ot
hcr
cv|Jcncc|stbcrconwb|cbtobasctbcJcc|s|on'
otb
Jcc|arcncanbc'r|gbt'|ntbcscnsctbatbotbarcact|ngontbcbas|soI
the|nIor
mat|ontbat|sconcnt|yava||ab|ctotbcm. Irobab|||t|csarcarc0cct|on
,
iI thc statc oIpart|a| know|cJgc |n wb|cb onc |sopcrat|ng. Tbcy van w|tb
what|sknownanJassomcd. ncp|aycrbassccnaspaJc|cd,tbcotbcrabcart
led, so tbccv|Jcncc |sc|car|yJ|hcrcntandtbcprobab|||t|csmcrc|yrc0ccttbat
J|||ercncc.
Tcrc |s a grcat Jca| oIonccrta|nty |Ia|| onc knows |s tbat onc p|aycr |s
prbably |ongcr|naccrta|nso|ttbanb|spartncr. |t |sccrta|ntbat tbcopcn|ng
|caJer'spartncr,bc|ngsbortcr|ntbc|caJcr'sso|t, |s|ongcr|nanotbcrso|t, anJ
that so|tmaynotbcJ|amonJs. Tbcrc'stbcrob. Ab,bot|tcouUbcd|amonJs.
Vhy shoo|J onc assomc |t |sn't ' Tbat'swbcrc tbc d|str|bot|on oIs|Jcscomcs
i nto p|ay. Hcrc|sancxamp|c.
l ll lll
5 - 3 5 - 3
5 - 3
Case | hearts are unevenly split
3 - 5 4 - 4 4 - 4 Case | | clubs unevenly split
0 2 - 2 0 2 - 2 0 1
" 3 Case | | | di amonds are unevenly split
3 - 3 2 - 4 3 - 3
80 7
5
67 proprtions of card combinations
Case
I |s tbc s|ng|c most probab|c s|toat|on g|vcn tbat wc know |or assomcl
r
a
d
e
s are J-J. |t|smostprobab|c tbattbc|ongcstso|t|bcartsl |soncvcn|ysp||t
r
athe
r tbana sbortcrso|t. It|s|cast ||kc|ytbattbcsbortcstso|t |J|amonJsl |s
unevenly
sp||t. |notbcrwords, |Ia spaJc |stbcmost ||kc|y |caJ hom Wcst,a
heart |sthc most | |kc|y|cadhom Lst. Sorpr|sc| |n c|tbcrcasc,tbcJ|amonJs
'houiJ b
e assomcd|n|t|a||ytobsp||tZ-Z anJtbcc|obsJ-J, astb|s|stbcs|ng|c
most probab|cd|str|bot|on.
In tb|s cxamp|c, tbcn, borkc and Sm|tb arc concct |n stat|ng tbat tbc
in
'
I
'
r-so|t
|caJshomc|tbcrs|dcdon'tahccttbcodJson tbcp|accmcntoItbc
O
( or
tbc+ oranyotbcrc|obord|amonJl.
I n pract|cc, wcdon'tknowwb|cbcascapp||cs,wcon|yknowwbat| smost
l
r
o
h
a
bl
e onJcrtbcc|rcomstanccswbcrctbcJ|v|s|onoIs|Jcs|sknown. Dcc|arcr
Cmm5 l APt|ot|OaMVaaorFmes | 57 I
knowson|ythecarJ |eJ ath|stab|c. |t |spropcrtoworkw|ththat|nIormat|o
n
anJ |ct thc ch|ps Ia|| whcrc thcy may. |I Jcc|arcr can saIc|y gathcr morc
|nIormat|onbcIorc mak|nga cr|t|ca|Jcc|s|on, bc sboo|JJoso. Tc pr|nc|p|
,
|s a|ways tbc samc. go w|tb wbat yoo know. Thc probab|| |ty onc cmp|oys |s
ca||cd tbcconJ|t|ona|probab|||ty.Tcabovccxamp|c |nvo|vcss|JcsoIB-B--4,
a||cvcnnombcrs. Lct's|ookattbcmostcommons|dcs| B-7--JI,wb|cb|sa
mix
oIoddandcvcnnombcrs.
I II Ill
5 - 3 5 - 3 5 - 3 Case | di amonds are evenly split
3 - 4 3 - 4 4 - 3 Case | | 3 hearts lef, 3 clubs lef
< 3 - 3 < 2 - 4 < 2 - 4 Case | | | 4 hearts lef, 2 clubs lef
2 - 3 3 - 2 2 - 3
1 00 75 75 proportions of card combi nations
Inth|ss|toat|on,thcopcn|ng|cad|saga|nassomcdtocrcatctwovacantp|accs
ontbcr|gbt. Thcsccanbh||cdrcad||ybythcnatom||yocon|ngoncvcnsp||ts
|nthcoddnombcrcdso|ts,hcartsandc|obs,wh||cthcd|amondsarcsp||tcvcn|y
|CascI I . Th|srcqo|rcsthatbthbcartsandc|obshavcancxccssontbcr|gbt.
CascsII andIIIIcatorcaZ-4sp||t|nd|amonds,wh|chby|tsc|Iba|anccstbc
vacantp|accscrcatcdonopcn|ng|cad. In thcsc cascs,thccxccss|nhcarts may
bcontbc r|gbtor|ch w|thcqoa|probab|||ty, and s|m||ar|yIorthcc|obs. Tcy
Iormaba|anccdsct.
Tbcnombr oIcomb|nat|ons Ior a Z-4d|amond sp||tadd op to I JO, ba|I
aga|nasmoch3 tbccomb|nat|onsIoraJ-Jsp||t. 5o|Iwcarcwondcr|ngaboot
thc|oat|onoIthc%,thctcndcncy|stoassomcaZ-4sp||t|a4-Zsp||t|sh|gb|y
on||kc|yI.
Hm3- 1 75
Hm 4 75
Number of Combinations
Cl ubs 2-3 1 75
Clubs 3-2 75
Diamonds 3-3 1 00
Diamonds 2- 1 50
Iorcachso|t,tbcrc |smostprobab|yan cxccss oIcardsonthcr|ghtwhcrc two
vacantp|accsnccdtobch||cd. Hcartsandc|obshavcah|ghcrdcgrccoIr|gbt-
handprcIcrcnccthand|amonds.
Changing Cirumstances
Natora||ytbcmorconcknowstbcbttcr,5 partoIdcc|arcr'sp|anshoo|dbto
gatbcrmorc |nIormat|on wbcn |tappcan saIc todoso. Th|s |nvo|vcs r|sk. II
| 5b ) me,Pom|||aMInjm
thckcyhncssc|s|nd|amonds,oncgatbcrs|nIormat|onconccm|nganotbcrso|t,
u
sua||ytbcsbortcstso|thc|d,bcrcc|obs. So|I|tcanbcdoncw|tbootr|sk,|t|s
c
oncct top|ayohsomc topc|obsandscc wbatbappcns. IItbcc|obssp||tZ-J,
thcrc|sst|||an|mba|anccoIoncvacantp|accontbcr|gbt. It|smost||kc|ytbat
thcJ|amondsarc J-Jand hcarts J-4,tbc|rmost cvcnsp||ts. IIc|obssp||t J-Z,
thc|mba|ancconthcr|ght| snowthrccvacantp|accs,and|t| smost||kc|ytbat
Jiamondsarcsp||tZ-4andhcartsJ-4rathcrthanJ-JandZ-J.
|dca||y, thcn, both Northand5outhdcc|arcnshou|d tcst thcc|ubsbcIorc
ak|ngadcc|s|onond|amonds. II|t |sjudgcdnotsaIctodoso, thcn cachgos
witb
wbat hc has, and both can p|ay 'concct|y', cvcn |Ionc oIthcm must b
wron
g.
The Evidence of the Bidding
DcIcndcnwho b|donnoth|ngand cnd updcIcnd|ngg|vcthc cvcntua|dcc|arcr
a |argc cdgc. Hcrc, |IWcsthasb|dspadcs, thc twohypthct|ca|dcc|arcnw|||
havc tbcsamc cv|dcncc to work w|th. IIWcst wass||cnt |nonc rom, morc
unccrta|ntycx|ststhcm. 5o|ct'ssayWcstb|dspadcs|noncromand|cdaspadc
aga|nst South. Thc cascs shown abvc app|y, and dcc|amr can go hom thcrc
intbc way |nd|catcd. Inthc othcr rom, WcstW s||cntandLast |cdahcart.
Nortbbasancnt|rc|yd|hcrcnt|nIomat|onbascandoncshou|dnotb|amch|m
Ior gctt|ng |twrongwh||c 5outh, w|th mom |nIomat|on, gcts |tr|ght. Lndcr
thcscc|rcumstanccs,oncrcad||ysccsthatNorthwasact|ngconcct|yg|vcnthc
cvidcncc at hand. Wcst,wc may conc|udc, gavc away to much |nIormat|on.
1crc|srca||ynopmb|cmw|ththc|dcathatprobab|||t|csarcd|hcrcntIorNorth
andSouth,andthaton|yoncoIthcmw|||makcthcconcctdcc|s|ona|dcdbythc
di0crcncc|nthc|nIomat|onava||ab|c.
The Strength of the Evidence
|Iborkc and 5m|th wcrc tosay s|mp|y that thc cv|dcnccoIthcopcn|ng |cad
prov|dcsawcakbas|sIor dca||ngw|tham|ss|nghonor|nanothcr,sbortcr,su|t,
oncwou|dagrcc,thc|nIomat|onhom|cadscanbdcccpt|vcatt|mcs. Howcvcr,
th|s|snothowthcyphrasc|t. Thcytakcthcv|cwthat'thc|nIomat|onthatthc
o
pcn|ng |cadcr has |cngth |n thc su|t hc |cads |s not random, but b|ascd, and
thcrcIorcIcw |Iany|nIcrcnccscanbtakcnhom|t.'
crcIcrcncctob|as|scnt|rc|ywrongandm|s|cad|ng|nthccxtrcmc. Tm
f
at tt t kunt ran uwhat mmst |njmmn! Lct'sagrccthatthc
Cmm5 l AFr|or|OMaoJVaaotFbes |
59 I
cv|Jcncc |swcak. ot |Iyoo assomc tbattbc% |sJO-JOtobcontbcr|gbtor
|cIt,yooarcassom|ngtbcopcn|ng|cadprov|dcsno|nIormat|ontbatm|gbtsway
dcc|arcrhomtbca mmassompt|onthattbcvacantp|accsarcba|anccdoots|dc
tbcd|amondso|t. Tbcconc|os|on|sthatoncmayaswc||0|paco|nastodraw
any|nIcrcnccswhatsocvcr. thcothcrhand,ana|ystsw||| ohcnchamp|ona
||ncoIp|ay bascdona sma|| d|hcrcncc |nthca mmodds. That'scxact|ythc
wrong way roond. |tdosn't makcscnsc tomakcdcc|s|onsonthcbas|soIs||m
odds|nh|gh|yunccna|nc|rcomstanccs. thcothcrhand,|Iyouhavcas||ght
cdgcbascdon cv|dcncc, howcvcrwcak, |t |s bcttcr to usc what cv|dcncc yoo
havcthanto0|paco|n.
Eamples with Tentative Conclusions
Cons|dcr thc aoct|on INT-JNT Dc|arcr can cxpct a major-su|t |cad. Thc
Z |s|cd. Whatdos|ttc||sus' Itsaysa|ot|Ith|s |sthcIoonhh|ghcst. Thcrc
|s nosomr|sc, so thc |nIomat|oncontcnt |s mthcr |ow, but wc shou|d assomc
|n|t|a||y|t|satmccardandworkmmthcrc. Ycs, |tcou|dbhomashonso|t,
botpcnona||yIhavcIoundth|snoI|cadsc|domworks -mypanncna|ways
rctommy so|t and|oscatcmp. 5othcprobab|||t|cshvorth|sb|ngaIoonh-
bst|cadandconc|us|onscanbdmwnastothcspadcandhcanho|d|ngs. In
Iact,thcdca|shou|dp|ay||kcap|ano|a.
Nowsopposcthcopcn|ng|cad|sthc0Z. Th|s|cadCbh|gh|y|nIomat|vc,
botshoo|dbtrcatcdw|thaccna|ndcgrccoIskcpt|c|sm. Tcrc|sah|ghdcgrcc
oIpass|v|ty, norma|tosomc,susp|c|ous|nothcn. II|t|satmccard,thcopn|ng
|cadcr |smarkcdw|tha0athand,say1-1|nthc m|nonandJ-Z |nthc majon,
or J-J-1-J, and hc a|so ho|ds a Ia|rpropn|on oIthc h|gh cards hc|d by thc
dcIcndcn,thcrchav|ngbccnnoattcmpttoh|tpanncr'smajorsu|t. Aga|nsta
dcv|oosopponcnt,Iwoo|dsuspcctahvc-cardd|amondsu|t. IIIp|aythchandon
thcassompt|onthatthcopcn|ng|cadcrho|dsaIour-cardmajorsu|tj ustbcausc
thca moddsIavorthat assumpt|on, I amp|ay|ng contrantothc cv|dcncc.
Woo|dInotj ust|hab|ybca||cdtotaskbymytcammatcs'
Kcccnt|y, p|ay|ng |n JNT, I mcc|vcd thc 0I0|cad w|th %xx |ndummy
and0AjBx|nhand. Thc%wascovcrcdw|ththc0K,takcnbymy0A. Ltcr,
ahcr I had takcn a wrong v|cwoIthc ps|t|onoIthc0, |tcmcrgcd that thc
opcn|ng |cad was hom0lOx,and that my LHwas notor|oos |n thc c|ub Ior
th|s p|oy. 5o now I know. Th|s know|cdgc w|||b storcd away Iormturc usc
and bccomc a Iactor |n thc cst|mat|on oIthc od aga|nst th|s p|aycr, whosc
namc sc|domappcan at thc topoIthc scor|ng||sts. 5ubjcct|v|ty |sa||owcd |n
thc mathcmat|cs. Thcrc |s no nccd to g|vc up on what wc know abut thc
tcndcncyoIooroppncnts. Wc|ncommtcthcpr|orknow|cdgc.5urc|yth|s
|s
on|ycommonscnsc.
I 0 ) me,Pom|Injm
Final Example
Cons|dcrtb|sIa|sc argomcnt wbcrc a dcc|arcr most p|ck op thc0 Irom th|s
comb|nat|on.
K 1 0 8 6
AJ 9 7
||bc bcg|nsw|ththc0A andhncsscsthroogb thc0Kl0, bcbasagodcbancc
o|socccss |Itbc d|amondsarc sp||tJ-Z. IIhc bcg|nsw|th tbc0K andhncsscs
throogbtbc0Aj,hchasagodchanccoIsocccss|Itbcd|amondsarc Z-J. oo
igbttbcnconc|odctbath|sovcm||chanccoIsocccss |s JO%,bccaoscbc may
chooscatrandomwh|chwaytostanandJ-Z|sas||kc|yasZ-J. Tb|s|sobv|oos|y
a|a|scargomcnt,assomcth|ngmostbcknownabootthcd|str|bot|onoItbccards
ontb|sdca| tbat makcsoncd|amondsp||tmorc||kc|ytban tbcotbcr. Tak|ng
thchncssc|sa|waysthcconcctp|ayrcgard|css,botoncd|rcct|on|sbcttcrtban
thcotbcrg|vcnwbat|sknownhomthcb|dd|ngandtbcopcn|ng|cad-Ioronc
thing, tbcrc was no d|amond |cad. Tbc mathcmat|cs most rc0cct rca||ty and
comonscnsc|nordcrtob|stcragodp|aycr'schanccsoIsocccss. tbcm|sc
itbccomcsmcrc|yastcr||ccxcrc|scoI||m|tcdm|cvancc. Tbattrans|atcs|ntotbc
oscoIcond|t|ona|probab|||t|csbmcdonthccv|dcnccat band, wb|cb |nc|odcs
thcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs.
The Dog that Di dn't Bark
' Istctcanypo|ntK u|cyouuouUu|sKdtaumyatnt|on! '
' Tot cun|nc|dcntojt dog|nt n|dt-t|mc. '
'Tcdogdnot|ng|nt n|dt-t|mc. '
'Tatua t cut|om|ncUcnt , ' tcmtkcdSct|ockHo|mcs .
- homS||vmzcby5|rAnhorConanDoy|c| I BJ9- I 9JOl
Hcccnt|y w|th rcgard to a tmmp comb|nat|on oIK97Z oppos|tc BJ4, I
rcad|na Dc Z07 tUcMmaz|ncan|c|c,'tbcchancc oImak|ngIoortr|cks |s
aroond JZ. J%',thchgorccom|nghomthccompotcrprogramSu|tFmy. I hnd
th|sstatcmcntm|s|cad|ng|ntwoways. I|rst,thoscoddsarcon|yrc|cvantwbcn
n
9
tb|ng|sknownoIthccardsoots|dcthcso|t,bothcrctbcp|ay|nbcartswasto
b
e ondcrtakcnatTr|ck4,5 thcrcwmknow|cdgcava||ab|caboottbcdcIcndcrs'
hands.
5ccond,IoorhgrcsoIs|g|hcancc grcat|y ovcrstatcs tbc accoracy onc
ca
nassomc. Tc ma|nIactor|ntbcp|ay|shomwh|cbs|dcthchrstbcart |sto
be p|ay
cd, |owtothc k|ngor|ow to thcqoccn, wh|cbprcttywc||accoontsIor
thc
bo|koIthc odds |n IavoroItbc w|nn|ngdcc|s|on. Tbc dcc|s|on m|gbt bc
Cmm5 l APt|ot|OaoJ VaaorPmes | 61 I
classifed as 90% or better from the happy side anJ 1 0% or less from the sad s|Jc.
Thus, the probabi l i ty of success depenJs to a vcrygreat extent on what woo|Jbc
thc basis for choosing the di rection of the hrst |caJ,anJthat depcndson what
c|schasbccnJ|scovcrcJabootthcJcIcnJcrs'hanJs.
ncoImyIavor|tcchaptcrshomthcpcnoITcrcncc Kccsc wasg|vcn thc
po|gnant t|dc "How Coo|d I Tc| | "' |Chaptcr l oITm Ent Gam). Hcrc
|s
a dca| |||ostrat|ng tbc samc tbcmc wb|cb was p|aycd |n thc hna|soIthc ZOO7
Sp|ngo|d. Hcrctbc|mp||cat|onconccm|ngtbcdcIcndcrs'p|ayprov|dcdac|oc,
astbcana|ystobscrvcd|atcr.
EW Vulnerable
Dealer: North
A K 1 0 9
V J 1 0
9 7 5
9 8 5 2
West
pass
all pass
8 4
V K 9 7 2
Q J 8
+ A K J 3
D
7 2
V Q 8 6 5 4
A K 1 0 3
1 0 7
Nom
1 +
ost
pass
pass 2V
QJ 6 5 3
V A 3
6 4 2
Q 6 4
Wm
1 V
4V
Wcst |cd tbcK,wb|cbcoo|dbavc bccn homA-KorK-Q, tbcn sw|tcbcdtoa
|owd|amond. Dcc|arcrtack|cd tbc tromps |mmcd|atc|yby |cad|ngto tbcK,
|os|ng to tbc acc. Tbcj was casbcd, Io||owcd by a d|amond cx|ttodommy.
Dcc|arcrthcn tok tbc 'thcorct|ca||ycorrcct' tromphncssc, |os|ngto tbc l J
Dwonc. Howcoo|d bctc|| '
A|tboogbtbcybc|dbctwccntbcmn|ncspadcsandI 7HC|nc|tbcropponcnt
hadtakcnthcopporton|tytocntcrthcaoct|onattbconc-|cvc|. Tb|s|sastrong
|mp||cat|ontbattbc|rva|ocswcrccvcn|yd|v|dcdandtbatnc|tbcropponcntbaJ
d|str|bot|ona|asscts.WbcnWcstsbowcdagodspadcso|tonb|s opcn|ng |cad,
dcc|arcrm|gbtrcason tbat bcwason| |kc|ytobo|dtbcAandc|thcr|cngtbor
shortagc|nthcrcdso|ts.ascdontbccv|dcncc,|tappcarstbcr|gbtp|ay|stow|n
tbchrstd|amond |ndommyand|cadtowardstbc. Wbcntbcqoccnbo|Js
tbctr|ck,tbcrcst|scasy.
How
m|gbttbcobscrvat|ontbatWcstJ|Jn'tb|dbccxprcsscJmorcprcc|se|y
| o
n
um
bcrs ' SupposcJcc|arcrbcg|nsby|caJ|ngtowarJstbc<K |nJummy,ashc
J|J, |os|ng
totbc<A. Whcnbcp|aystbcscconJbcart|romJummy, bc m|ght
|
ausc toaskb|msc||wbctbcrWcstwou|dovcrca||w|tbagoodspadcsu|tanJa
s|oc
|cton
bcart. ||bc tb|nks tbat Wcst wou|d bavc b|d lat |cast O%o|thc
t| c w|tb as|ng|ctonandnotb|d w|tbadoub|cton,tb|swou|d compensatc|or
the rcJuccd probab|||ty tbat Wcst bad p|aycd tbc l JIrom a doub|cton<j l O
| th
e|r|
nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|ccI . L tb|s|nIcrcncc,dcc|arcrwou|Jp|ay|or
thc
Jrop.
|ntbcopcnroom,br|cKodwc||asNortbopcncdtbcb|dd|ngw|tb lNT, so
oow|twasmorcd|mcu|tIortbcopponcntstocntcrtbcauct|on. Tbc|nd|cat|ons
cooccm|ngtbcp|accmcntoItbcA wcrcnotasstrongbcrc. bast |cd thc
aoJWcst ovcrtook tocasb tbctopspadcs. Ac|obcx|tputdcc|arcr|nb|s banJ
H akc tbcw|nn|ngp|ayoIa tmmp towardstbc<. TbcodJs |n|avoro|th|s

|
aywercmucb|csstban|ntbcC|oscdKoombccausco|tbcwcakcr|n|crcnccs
ava||ab|ctodcc|arcr -cvcnbo|d|ngtbcA,Wcstm|gbtnotbavcbaJcnough
rcsourccs to mcr|t an ovcrca|| at tbc two-|cvc|. Sbutt|ngout tbc oppos|t|on's
||JJ|ngrcduccstbcamountoI|nIormat|onava||ab|ctotbccvcntua|Jec|arcr.
Reese's Readi ng of the Much Mali gned
3
-
3
Split
IgowoU|cam|ngmny0|ng.
- So|on|4O- BCI
A sevcn-card ht occors |nabout two-tb|rdsoItbc bands onc |sdca|t. |n about
ooe|n|ouroItboscbands,tbc|ongcstht|sscvcncards|ong. ||onc|sp|ay|ng|n
ao e|g
bt-cardorn|nc-card tmmpht, vcryoItcn tbcsccondaryhto|scvcncarJs
hastobcbroacbcd,as |t|srarc tbata||onc's |oscrscanbcd|scardcdonouts|Jc
w|
nncrs. Tb|sbr|ngstotbcIorctbcqucst|onoIbowtbcdcIcndcrs's|xcarJsarc
| | ke|ytobcsp||t.
|ordccadcs, br|dgc wr|tcrsbavc wamcddcc|arcrsaga|nstp|ay|ng|or a 3-3
-
|||t.
Tbc bas|soItbc argmcnt was tbat tbcammodds Iavorcd a 4-Z sp||t
o
v
er
a 3-
3 by tbc marg|n oI4B% to J%. Conscqucnt|y, wbcn p|ann|ng tbc
||ay,dcc|arcrssbou|dkccptb|s|nm|ndand|ooktohncssc|ntbcscvcn-carJsu|t
rathcrtbanp|ayIortbcdrop. Tb|s|saIa|scargomcnt,asusua||yonccan
hncsse
o
o|y
|noncd|rcct|on,somostp|ayIorc|tbcra4-Zsp||tora Z-4sp| |t,notboth.
nc
oItbc most rcmarkab|c attackson tbc m|susc o|ammodds
appears
|n
Th
t E|u|vcExoaTnckbyTcrcnccKccscand Dav|d |rd,w|tbrcgarJ
the
|
o| |
o
w|ngbands.
A QJ 8 6 4
\ 6 5
< A QJ
4 K J
K 1 0 9 7
C A K 8 7 2
< 1 0 2
Q 1 0
1 C
4.
SC*
pass
Tbc49 was |cd, won w|tb tbc 4A. Tbc was rctomcd, and tbc qocst|on
wasaskcd, sboo|d dcc|arcrhncssc |nd|amonds,a JO% propos|t|onbascdontbc
a mm odds, or p|ay Ior tbc bcarts to brcak, on|y a J% propos|t|on' Kccsc,
|n b|s c|gbt|cs at tbct|mcoIpob||cat|on | I 994l , badpopo|ar|:cd tbc |r|nc|p|c
oIKcstr|ctcd Cbo|cc Iorty ycars car||cr. Hc bad |ong bccn an advocatc o|
a
sc|cnt|hcapproacb tocard p|ay |wc||-matcbcdtob|sdnsty|coIprcscntat|onI,
so|twassomcwbatsorpr|s|ngtbatbcwoo|dcngagc|nav|goroosattackonwbat
badbccomconcoItbcma|nstaysoIb|sIc||owbr|dgcana|ysts. Hcwas,bowcvcr,
concct|ndo|ngso.
TbcargomcntmadcbyKccscand|rdwastbatdcc|arcrsboo|dnothncssc,
as at tb|s stagc wbat was a JO% propos|t|on bcIorc p|ay bad commcnccd baJ
nowbccn rcdoccdbyba|Itoa ZJ%propos|t|on,wbcrcastbcJ-Jsp||t|nbcarts
rcma|ncd attbcor|g|na|J%.Tbcopcn|ng|cadwastbccaoscoItbcrcdoct|on,
as|tm|gbtj ostascas||ybavccomchomtbcd|amondso|t |INortb'sbo|d|ng|n
tbcso|twcrcnotbcadcdbytbc0K.
Tb|s |s a var|at|on on tbc Kcstr|ctcd Cbo|cc argomcnt. IIa p|aycr takcs
an act|on, onc assomcs tbat act|on was not a cbo|cc hom two cqoa||y ||kc|y
poss|b|||t|cs. L tbc|cadoIa c|ob, |tmaybassomcdtbatad|amond |cadwas
notancqoa|cbo|cc. Tbatahordstbcassompt|ontbattbcopcn|ng|cadcr|smorc
||kc|ytban |n|t|a||ycxpcctcdtobo|d tbc0K.
Tbc argomcnt was ratbcr |osc|y pot |n tbc ||m|tcd spacc ava||ab|c, but
wortby oIcxpans|onbccaoscoItbcIar-rcacb|ngconscqocnccs. It |s vcn c|osc
totbcargomcntsondcr|y|ngtbcoscoIbb's||nd Ko|c. I|rst|ct'scbccksomc
||kc|yd|v|s|onoIs|dcs.
I II Ill IV
1 - 2 2 - 1 1 - 2 3 - 0
3 - 3 3 - 3 4 - 2 2 - 4
< 4 - 4 < 3 - 5 < 4 - 4 < 4 - 4
5 - 4 5 - 4
4 - 5
4 - 5
Combi nations L O. BC 0. 75C 0. 25C
TbcnombcroIcomb|nat|ons |nCascI, tbcmost||kc|yd|str|bot|on, |sdcnotcd
by C. Tbc nombcrs oIcomb|nat|ons Ior tbc otbcr cascs arc g|vcn rc|at|vc to
tbat nombcr. Tbc s|x cards |nbcansarc |css ||kc|ytosp||toncvcn|ytban tbc
c|gbtcards|nd|amonds. TbcprcscnccoIa vo|d acts todccrcasc tbcnombcro|
[ I ne, Fom|||aMIojmmo
c
ob|nat|onsava||ab|c,andbcncctbcprobab|||tyo|occorrcncc,byas|gn|hcant
|t
act|on.
Tbc
J-Jbcansp||t|srcprcscntcd |ntbctwomost ||kc|ys|dcsandtbcc|ob
|c
a
J|s
|avorcdbybc|nghomtbc|ongcstso|t. |ntbcscs|toat|ons,dcc|arcrsboo|d
p|
ay
|or
tbcJ-J bcansp||tandspomtbcd|amondhncssc.
|n
Cascs andIVwbcrctbcbcartsarcsp||t4-Z,Kccsc'sargomcntbo|dsas
t
hc
|cad
m|gbtbavccomccqoa||yhom a top|cssd|amond so|t. |naccordancc
w|thtbc|r|nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc,tb|srcdoccstbcnombcrsoIcomb|nat|ons
by 0
|a
ctoro|I/Z, soCasc |npan|co|arcomcstorcprcscnta|csscrcbo|cc. Tbc
Rccsc
-|rdargomcntapp||csd|rcct|ytotb|ss|toat|on.
|n
Casc , ac|cvcrdc|cndcrbo|d|ngtbc0Km|gbtprojccttbcp|ayandscc
thatJcc
|arcrcoo|dadopttbcgood ||ncbydraw|ngtmmpsandromngtbctb|rd
n:unJo|bcans. Wcntbcbcansarcd|scovcrcdnottosp||tIavorab|y,dcc|arcr
hasthcd|amondhncssc |nrcscnc,andtbatworks. |t |sgoddcIcnsctorctom
a J|amond at Tr|ck Z, mak|ng dcc|arcrgocss at tbc car||cst stagc. Lcoorsc,
Jcc|0rcrdocsn'tknown|IKH|sbc|ngvcnc|cvcr. Katbcrtbandcpcndontbc
act|ono|KH,dcc|arcrsboo|dg|vcmorcwc|gbttoLH'sopcn|ng|cad,astbat
p|avcrbadmocb|css|nIormat|ononwb|cbtobascb|s|n|t|a|act|onand|smorc
tcstt|ctcd|nb|scbo|ccs.
Playdown i n a Suit
Lookamyouu|jm|t ~u|at|sumoudtuumccn.
- 5opbo|cs|49-40Cl
Hctc |s tbc c|ass|c dcc|s|on wbcn Iac|ng a poss|b|c hncssc |n a scvcn-card ht.
-hou|ddcc|arcrhncsscorp|ayIortbcdropoItbcj ack'
AK c: Q 1 Ox
1c standard answcr to tbc prob|cm |s tbat dcc|arcr sboo|d p|ay oh tbc acc
anJ k|ngand |cad towardstbc tcnacc. |ILHbasIo||owcd tbroogboot w|tb
|ow cards, tbcoddsnowIavorp|ay|ngIor tbcdropoItbcjack, as tbc J-J sp||t
has bccomc tbc morc ||kc|y. Howcvcr, tb|s |s notcnt|rc|y corrcct, tbcrc arc
con
d|t|onstobmct,aswcsba||sbowb|ow.
y a p|aydow |n a so|t, wc mcan tbc procss oIp|ay|ng ohtop cards |n
thcsu|tso tbat tbcdcIcndcrs most Io||ow|Itbcy can w|tb|owcards. Tb|s |sa
|toccss
o|gatbcr|ng |nIomat|on. |n oorcxamp|c, wbcndcc|arcrp|ays ohtbc
acc-k
|ngand |cads a |owcardtowardstbcQ- I 0, LH basIo||owcdw|tb tbrcc
|ow
cards,sotbcso|tbasbccnp|aycd downtotbcpo|ntwbcrcon|y tbcjack|s
utstand|ng.
Cmam5 l APt|or|OaoJVaaorPmes l 5 l
Tcrcarctwo|n|t|a|conJ|t|onsst|||poss|b|c.
U0
uv
kH0
Jyz
U0
Juv
kH0
yz
whcrc u, v, w, :, and rcprcscnt |ow cards andj rcprcscnts thc jack. Lt's m
n
throoghthcstagcs|ndcta||,asth|sscncsasancxamp|cIormanyp|aydownsto
Io||ow.
Card Split
Combi nations
6 - 0
1
5 - 1
6
4 - 2
1 5
3 - 3
20
2 - 4
1 5
Koond I . ahcrcardsu and: appar,thcmma|n|ngcardsarcIour|nnombcr.
Card Split
Combi nations
Koond Z. ahcrcardsV and havcbcnp|aycd,thcrcma|n|ngcardsamtwo|n
nombcr.
Card Split
Combi nations
2 - 0
1
L
2
0 - 2
1
Whcncardw |sp|aycd|nKoundJ,on|yonccam rcma|nstobp|aycd.
1 - 0 0 - 1
J - 0 0 - J
Thcp|aydowntoth|sp|nthas|so|atcdtwocomb|nat|ons,oncmmanor|g|n
n
|
1-Z sp||t and thc othcrhom a J-Jsp||t. Wh|ch |sthc morc probab|c |n|t|a||v
w|||dctcrm|ncwhcthcrdcc|arcrshou|dhncsscorp|ayIorthcdrop. IIthcvacant
p|accsoots|dcthcso|tarccvcn|yd|str|botcd,thcnthcJ-Jsp||t|smorcprobab|c,
as|t|sundcrthc0p cond|t|ons. Thcc|ass|ca|adv|ccoIp|ay|ngIorthcdrop
|sbascdonth|sassompt|on. Howcvcr,|Ithcrcarcmorcvacantp|accsonthc|ch,
thc 1-Z probab|||ty maybcgatcrt thcJ-Jprobab|||tytoancxtcnt that
|t
ovcn|dcsthc |n|t|a|advantagcg|vcn tothc cvcn sp||t. Thcm|capp||csa|soto
thcZ-Zsp||twhcnthcdcIcndcnho|dIourcards|nasu|t.
With a vacant place difrence of +2 or more on the lef, take the finesse.
With no vacant place i mbalance, play fr the drop. With O vacant place
difrence of + 1 on the lef, chose either.
( 6 | mc,Pom|||Inj
T
hi
s
s
tan
A
s as an cxamp|c oIKc|scy's Ko|c, namcJ aItcr tbc |atc, grcat br|dgc
ac
th
or,HogbKc|scy,wb|cbwcsba||prcscnt|atcr|ntb|scbaptcr. I|rst,tboogb,
m
ust c|
ar|htbcconccptoIvacant p|accs, somctb|ngwb|cb bas |ntbc past
,
oAs
(
mc
m|sondcrstand|ngw|tbrcgardto|tstrans|at|on|ntoprobab|||t|cs.
W
hat
Exactly Are Vacant Places?
Ccannotmcscntasc|cnccu|0outs|mu|mncom|ydjn|m|uR.
- G.WLc|bn|tt| l 4- l 7 l l
whenonckccpstrackoIwhcrcsomccardsarc,onc|skccp|ngtmcks|mu|tancous|y
of where otbcrcardsarcn't. Thcocup|cdp|accsarcthcpast,thcvacantp|accs
represent tbcmturc. It|sthc|attcrwh|charcthcmorc|mportantwhcnp|ann|ng
one'
s
ncxtmovc. Thcocup|cdp|accsrcprcscntthc|n0cx|b|cyangoIthcdca|,
rhe vacantp|accsarcthcvar|ab|cy|n,wh|ch,||kcwatcr,can0owhcc|ytoh||thc
e
mpty
spaccs.
Vacantplaces arcpotcnt|a||oat|ons|nthcdcIcndcn'handsIorthcunknown
carJs.Dcc|arcrknowswhatcardsarc m|ss|ngoncc thc dummyappcan,what |s
unknown |showthccardsarcd|v|dcdbctwccnthcdcIcndcn.Tbcvacantp|accs
relate to tbcpmbab|||tyoIthc dca||ngoIthccardsand y|c|d |nthc|rmt|o thc
re|ativc numbcroIsu|tcomb|nat|onsava||ab|c |nthc oppncnts' hands. Thcy
a|
o
ago|dctothcprobab|cp|accmcntoIthccamsycttobp|aycd.
Wcbavcwr|ttcnuptonowoIvacantp|accs |navagucmanncrundcrthc
assumpt|on that thc rcadcr |s Iam|||ar w|th thc conccpt. Th|s |s a dangcrous
r
mccdorc, howcvcr, and wc havc an|vcd at thc p|nt whcrc wc must prov|dc
hette
r
dchn|t|ons. Thc spcc|hcat|on oIvacant p|accs, ||kc probab|||ty, |s not
unique, wh|ch has causcd conms|on. Wc cmp|oy thrcc d|st|nct|ons. Thc
inclusive var|cty |nc|udcs thc su|t abuttobp|aycdand thcexclusive var|cty
exc|odcstbatsu|t. Thccurent var|cty|sthconccncountcrcdatthctab|casthc
cards arcbc|ngp|aycd. W|thcachcardp|aycd,onctakcsastcp|ntmns|t|onhom
t
h
e |nc|os|vctothccxc|us|vcvacantp|accs. Asth|sstcprcqu|rcsadcIcndcrto
make a cbo|cc, thcpmbab|||tyoIapart|cu|ard|str|but|onoIcardsdcpnds not
only on tbc poss|b|c comb|nat|ons oIcards as dca|t but a|so on thc p|aus|b|c
rr
u
tat
|ons|nthcp|ay. | Howthcprobab|||tycanbccomputcdcxact|yw|||bc
left ont||
|atcr|nthcb kwhcnwccomctobaycs'Thcorcm. I
cbcstwaytoc|ar|hthcscdchn|t|ons|sthroughdcmonstmt|on. Cns|dcr
t
h
e
Io||ow|ngs|tuat|on|nwh|chthcd|v|s|onoImajorsu|ts |srcvca|cd thmugh
t
h
e
b|dd|n
gandcar|yp|ay. Dc|arcr,5outh, mustuscthc |nIomat|onprov|dcd
to
akc a
dcc|s|on as to wh|ch dcIcndcr |s morc ||kc|y to ho|d thc quccn oI
t
ps.
CMmJ | AFr|or|Od an Vaant Ples ( 7 ]
IMP Scori ng
NS vul nerabl e
l 0 8 6 2
C A J 8 4 3
0 ?
?
West
ptt
2<
4.
all ptt
7 3
c Q 7
0 A K 1 0 8 3
K 1 0 8 7
D
K 5
C K 6 5
0 QJ 7 4
A J 9 6
Nom ost
l 0 l 0
dbl 3<
ptt ptt
A QJ 9 4
c 1 0 9 2
0 ?
4
Wm
dbl
3NT
s
Tchcc-sty|cb|dd|ng|nd|catcsadoub|chtIorbths|dcsand|nthccndNorth
5ootharca||owcdtop|ayatthchvc-|cvc|.
Thcp|aygosasIo||ows.Wcst|cadsaIourth-h|ghcstZ, LasttakcsthcA
andsw|tchcs tothclO. Wcst w|nsh|saccandcx|ts w|thtbc% to Last'-J
and5outh'sK. Dc|arcr|s abutto undcrtakcthctaskoIdraw|ngtromps. Te
vacantp|accs|ncachhandarcca|cu|atcdasIo||ows.
WcsthashvchcartsandIourspadcs,sohchasIour|nc|us|vcvacantp|acc
|lJ m|nus9) to accommodatc c|ubsandd|amonds. Last hashvc spadcs anJ
thrcchcarts,sohchashvc|nc|us|vcvacantp|accs|lJm|nusBItoaccommoJatc
thcm|nors. Asnc|thcrm|norhasbcnp|aycd,thcoddswhcndcc|arcrobtain
thc |cadarcthatthct ||cs w|th Last |nthcrat|ooIJ.4. Th|s rat|o |sba-t.|
onthcrat|ooIcomb|nat|onsconta|n|ngthcquccnonthcr|ghtandonthc
|e|t .
assum|ngthcm|nor-su|tcardswcrcdca|tatrandom. Thccxc|us|vcvacant
p|acc
accommodatcon|yd|amondsandtota|Iour|nnumbr. Thcsp||t |nd|a
mooJ
w|||bknownonccthcsp||t|nc|ubshasbcndctcrm|ncd.
Natura||y 5outh w||| p|ay Last Ior hav|ng thc t, and so bcg|nsdrawi nt
trumpsbyp|ay|ngtothcK|ndummy.WcstandLastIo||oww|th|owcar
ds,a
o

|
dcc|arcr|cadsthclOtowardsthch|ddcnhand. LastIo||owsw|thanot
hcr
|u\\
card,sost|||m|ss|ngat th|sstagc arc a |ow cardandthc t. How arc t
hco
J
J

ahcctcd' Thccuncntvacantp|accsnowstandatthrccandthrcc,andtb
crc
'
twoc|ubsm|ss|ngthatcou|d h|| thcvacantp|accs. Hasthc |oat|onoIthcQ
bccomcaJO-JOpropos|t|on' No. Hcrc|samapoIthccnt|rcprocss.
I 68 | me, Pom|aMIojmam
I ni ti al i ncl usive vacant places
Fi rst round West fol l owi ng
Fi rst r
ound East fol l ows
Seco
nd round East fol l ows
West
4
3
3
3
East
5
5
4
3
|
the
bc
g|nn|ngo|thc p|ay |nc|obs, thcsc wcrc thc poss|b|ccomb|nat|ons |n
.
m
i n
or
s
thatcoo|dmadcopa4-sp| |t|nthcvacantp|accs.
9
4 - 0
0 - 5
( 1 /60)C
0 3 - 1
1 - 4
( 1 /3JC
0 2 - 2
2 - 3
c
0 1 - 3
3 - 2
(2/3JC
0 0 - 4
4 - 1
( 1 /1 2JC
The re|atiVe
numbcrso|comb|nat|onsarc|nd|catcdatthcbottom. Tak|nga||
.. |iib| o
at|ons |ntoaccoont,thcprobab|||ty that thc4 washc|donthcr|ght
\\ . t exactly |n thc rat|o o|thc vacantp|accs, namc|y .4. ncc a m|nor-so|t
.. 1r,l
was Dlaycd, thc vacant p|accs no |ongcr prov|dcd an cxact ca|co|at|on.
\\' h
y ! 6ccauscthcdc|cndcrscoo|dnotp|ayanyc|obcqoa||yw|thootcost-|n
l
'
t rt
i
cular, adc|cndcrmostavo|dp|ay|ngthc4.
Once Wcsthasp|aycda|owc|obandbasthasIo||owcdtw|ccw|th|owc|obs,
t hl two cxtrcmcs |nvo|v|ngvo|dshavcbccnc||m|natcd,andthcvacantp|accs
. t r, equal at thrcc|ncachd|rcct|on.
9 3 - 1
0 - 2
( 1 /3JC
0 2 - 2
1 - 1
c
0 1 - 3
2 - 0
( 1 /3JC
W
i
th reg
a
rd tocardcomb|nat|ons, symmctn has bccn ach|cvcd, so|tappcars
t h, t t
t
he Q coo|d as cas||y bc on thc |c|t as on thc r|ght. Lct's sopposc that
t hl original m|ss|ngc|obs arcdcs|gnatcdasQ, u, w, x, and y. Thc twoc|obs
r, mai ning arcthc4 andx. Hcrcarcthcposs|b|||t|cs.
9 3 - 1

0 - Qx
ll
0 2 - 2
Q - x
lll
0 2 - 2
x- Q
I
0 1 - 3
Qx - 0
1 11 1w
ev
er,
thc p|ay |n thc c|obso|thas not proccdcd at random, so thcrc |sa
'
l
l
l cs
tion o|'rcstr|ctcd'cho|cctobccons|dcrcd. Thcchcct|s that Cond|t|on| |
"`
l
i
k
el
y thanCond|t|on | | | , and |t| sth|schcctthatdcstroysthcsymmctry
`
th
e pos|t|ons. As |s shown |n a |atcr chaptcr, th|s mndamcnta| rcso|t |s a

s
e
9
u
e
ncco|aycs' Tbcorcm, wh|ch|nagcncra|waytakcs|ntoaccoontthc
'
t tl
erenc
es bctwccnthcdca||ngo|thccardsandthcp|ay|ngo|thccards. A|o| |
r r
l
at
r
ent
|s
g|vcn|nChaptcr7.
Cmp5 I APt|ot|OaoJVaaorPmes | 9I
Final ly, we consider the happy circumstance when
West fol lows wi th the
last remaining low card on the second round of clubs. Obviously, Condi tion
I l l appl ies - the only trump sti ll missing i s the +Q and that sits i n the East
hand. This can bcdrawnwith the +A, lcavi ngtbcJ|amonJso|ncccss|tysp
| |t
!- !. This |stbc most probab|csp||to|tbc|ourcards |n tbat su|t, tbcso-ca||cJ
cxc|us|vc vacant p|accs. Takcn |nconj unct|on, tbc most probab|c sp| |to|tbc
c|ubs andd|amondsrcqu|rcd toaccommodatc tbc |n|t|a||ourand hvcd|v|s
|o
n
o|vacant p|accs wou|d bavc bccn c|obs Z-J and d|amonds Z-Z. Tb|s, tbc
n,
| s
adcmonstrat|onoIbb's | |ndKo|catwork. g|vcnwbatoncknowsabout thc
d|v|s|ono|tbcmajorso|ts,onccboscsattbcstantop|ayIortbcsp||tstbatg|v
c
tbcgrcatcstnombcroIcardcomb|nat|ons|ntbcm|norso|ts.
Vacant Places and Playi ng for the Dro
p
Wat woul life be without arithmetic, but a scene of horors!
- Kcv.S|dncySm|tb| I 77 I - I B4I
at 4ycarsoIagct oayoong|adycontcmp|at|ngman|agc
Lct's cons|dcr tbc s|toat|on wbcrc somc so|ts bavc bccn p|aycd and onc can
dctcrm|nctbc|rsp||tsbascdontbcb|dd|ngandp|aysoIar. Tbcrcarcst|||suits
tbatbavcnotbccnp|aycd,andtbcnombcro|cards|ntboscso|tsrcprcscntstbc
numbcro|vacantp|accs.Sopposctbcrcarc s|xm|ss|ngcards |n tbc cr|t|ca|su|t,
wb|cbdcc|arcr|sabouttobrcacb,andtboscs|xcardsoccopyvacantp|accsa|onc
w|tbotbcrcards |nso|ts tbat bavc not bccn p|aycd. |n tota|,tbcsc rcprcscot
tbcncuvc vacantp|accs. Tbccardsoots|dctbccr|t|ca|so|tarctbccxcuvc
vacant p|accs, as tbcy cxc|odc tbc so|t aboot to bc p|aycd. Wc nccd conccm
oorsc|vcs on|y w|tb tbc 4-Z and J-J sp||ts to dctcrm|nc wbctbcr to hncssc or
not.
W|tbancvcnnombcroIcxc|os|vcvacantp|accs,tbc|nc|os|vcvacantp|accs
arcc|tbcrcvcnorbavcad|hcrcncco|Z. Iorba|anccd|nc|os|vcvacantp|accs,
tbcnumbcroIcomb|nat|ons|ntbcouts|dcso|t|sIasso|atcdw|tbJ-J |sgrcatcr,
sop|ayIor tbcdrop. Iorvacant p|accsgrcatcrby Z ononc s|dc, tbc nombcr
of
comb|nat|ons|ntbcouts|dcso|t|sIasso|atcdw|tb4-Z|sgrcatcr,sohncssc.
W|tbanoddnombcroIcxc|os|vcvacantp|accs,tbc|nc|os|vcvacantp|a
cc-
bavc a d|hcrcncc oI I or J. Ior vacant p|accs grcatcr on onc s|dc by I , the
nombcrs oIcomb|nat|ons |n tbcoots|dcso|t|sIasso|atcdw|tb4-Zand J-J ar
c
tbcsamc,sotakc yoorp|ckoIhncsscordropbascdonotbcrIactors. Iorvacan
t
p|accsgrcatcrbyJononcs|dc,tbcnombcroIcomb|nat|ons|ntbcoots|dcsu|t|
sI
assoc|atcdw|tb4-Zarcgrcatcr,sohncssc.
Ncxt cons|dcrtbccascoIIourcardssp||tc|tbcrJ- I orZ-Z. Tbcprob|cm
|-
wbctbcrtohncsscorp|ay|ortbcdropoItbcqoccn|n tb|ss|toat|on.
I 70 I ne, Fomi|iaMIojmoo
Kx
Dcc|arcrp|aystbcaccanJ|caJstowarJsK-j-x-x-x.
S|m||ar argomcnts app|y. For vacant p|accs grcatcr by I on tbc |cIt, tbc
o
umbcrsoIcomb|nat|ons |ntbcoots|dcso|t|sIasso|atcd w|tb J- I and Z-Zarc
th
e samc,sotakcyoorcbo|ccoIhncsscordropbascdonotbcrIacton.
Andso on.
Kelsey's Rule
Wm0|ns|g|jcantcatds|nasu|tavcaccnpmycd,autnot
|cjotc, tcsccanm cdR 0kmcatds|n0ca|cumt|onoj
VaantFmccs .
In this scgmcnt wc |okatvacantp|accsastbcywcrcv|cwcdbya mastcroItbc
past. |n b|s bok tUgc TcM|ndoj0 Eu, 3 c|scwbcrc, tbc |atc Hogb
Kc|scystrong|yadvoatcdtbccoontoIvacantp|accsasancxactca|co|at|onoI
pmbab|||t|cs. Tbcrcwcrccond|t|onstob mct, tb|ngs towatcbootIor. Wat
cards canbc|nc|odcd|ntbcvacantp|acccoont ' Hcd|dnotd|st|ngo|sbbctwccn
|oc|us|vc and cxc|os|vc vacant p|accs. |n b|s dchn|t|on tbc cxc|os|vc vacant
places wcrc oscab|c wbcn, asnotcdabovc, a|| |ns|gn|hcantcards |ntbccr|t|ca|
su
i
t badbccnp|aycd.
Kc|scy'sapproacbwascomp||catcdbyb|sdcs|rctoprov|dccxactprobab|||t|cs.
Vhatbappcnstotbcprobab|||t|csbIorca|||ns|gn|hcantcardsarcp|aycd|snot
xp|a|ncd by Kc|scy, wb|cb |s to say bc dos not dc|vc |nto aycs' Tbcorcm,
alth
o
ugh bcappcarstobcawarcoI|tsconscqocnccs. bar|y|nb|swr|t|ngcarccr
Kc|seycxprcsscdtb|sop|n|on|nb|sAdvanccdFmyattUc( I 9Bl .
' I f Bayes sounds to you l i ke a manufacturer of aspirins, by al l means conti nue
i n
that happy bel i ef. '
H
e g
ocsontosoggcst tbat tbcord|nanp|aycr nccdnotknowmocb |ntbcway
of
atbcmat|cs,bot tbat bc sboo|d mcmor|:c tbcam|m|odsoIvar|oos sp||ts
|ob
c us
ed asgo|dcs|ndcc|s|onmak|ng. Lcoorsc,Kc|scyb|msc|Ikncwbcttcr,

hcwas try|ngtobc bc|pm| toa matorc rcadcrsb|ptbatnccdcd go|dancc |n

|
0c|og|ca|aspcctsoItbcgamc.Tbcd|mco|tyw|tbtbatapproacb|stbat|tbrcaks
"'^
0wb
cnpottoascvcrctcst.
Cmpm5 I APt|ot|OaoJVaaorPmes | 7l I
Everthing shoul be m0 simpl 0 possibl, but not simpl.
- A|bcrtb|nstc|n| I B79- I 9JJI
Woo|d br|dgc bca bcttcrgamc | I| t wcrc s|mp|cr, | Ia| | onc nccdcd to
do
was
mcmor|:ctab|csoIa mmodds ' No. Aswcsba||dcmonstratc|na|atcrcbapt
cr,
tbccxpcr|cnccdp|aycrcancas||ycnoogbgrasptbcbas|cpr|nc|p|cbcb|ndBayes'
Tbcorcm. Tbcnbcorsbcknowstbcrcasonwby. Ondcrstand|ngrcp|accsb||n|
adbcrcncc. Hcrc |sancxamp|cwbcrc Kc|scy's Ko|ck|cks|noncxpcctcd|y.
T
e
dcIcndcrs bcg|nw|tb hvc tromps, so tbc pcmotat|ons |n p|ay w|||not rcach
a
ncotra|statctbroogbd|rcct|ydraw|ngtmmps. Howcvcr,onctmmp|sc||m|nate
|
wbcnadcIcndcr|s ab|c toobta|nan car|y roh, |cav|ngtbcdcIcndcrsw|tb
ust
Ioortrompsrcma|n|ngwbcndcc|arcrbcg|nstbctrompcxtract|onprocss. 1i-
|svcns|gn|hcant,asoncmaynowapp|ytbcm|csdcr|vcdabovcIorcvcncarJ
m|ss|ngw|tbrcgardtotbcrat|ooIvacant p|accstoobta|ncxactcst|matcso|thc
probab|||tyoIsocccssattbc t|mcoIdcc|s|on.
West ost
A J 8 7
D
K 1 0 S 3
< 8 7 s Q 9 4
K 9 6 A Q S
A J 8 K Q 9
West Nom ost Wm
2<
pass pass db | pss
4. all pass
SootbovcrtakcsNortb's|cadoItbcjw|tbtbcKandcont|nocsw|tbtbc A,
on wb|cb Nortb d|scards tbc 7. Tbc tb|rd bcan, tbc, |s mhcd by North
w|tbtbc ,wbotbcncx|tsw|tbtbc0Z.
Wbcn dcc|arcr w|ns |n band to p|ay tbc A and tbcn |cads towards t
h
e
KI OJ |ndommy, Nortb Io||owsw|tbtbc |ast |ow spadc. Hcrc |stbcs|toat|

o
covcrcdby Kc|scy's Ko|c,astbcrc |sj ostonc tmmp ooutand|ng. Tbcqocst|

o
|s,wbatarctbcvacantp|accsattb|spo|nt|ntbcp|ay' Kc|scyargocsasIo||ows
Sootbbassbowns|xbcartsandaspadc,sotbcnombcroIvacantp|accs|ntbat
band|ss|x. Nortbbassbowntbrccspadcsandoncbcan,5tbcnombroIvacaot
p|accs |n tbat band |s n|nc. Tbc odds arc tbcn J. Ztbat Nortb bo|ds tbcf.
Tb|ssopposcstbatonccan|gnorctbcp|ay|nd|amonds.
Anotbcrwaytov|cwtb|ss|toat|on|sto|okIortbccomb|nat|onsoIcarJ-
|ntbcdcIcndcrs'bands. Tbccardsmaybcd|str|botcdbctwccnNortbandSouth
asIo||ows.
I 72 | rUce. Prom|||naMIo/m
Condinonl Condinonll
Spades
3 - 2 Spades
4 . 1 (0.5)
Hearts 1 6 Hearts 1 6
Diamonds 3 - 3 Di amonds 4 . 2 (0.75)
Cl ubs
6 - 2 (0.4) Cl ubs 4 - 4
-t
the
bcg|nn|ng oIp|ay, tbc d|v|s|onon tbc |cIt |s tbc morc probab|c by tbc
, marg|n oI I . I J.
Cond|t|on | bas onc oncvcn sp||t oots|dc bcarts,
where
as
Cond|t|on || rcqo|rcs oncvcn sp||ts |n spadcs and d|amonds. y tbc
wne
Jcc|arcr
rcacbcs tbccr|t|ca| po|nt |ntbcp|ay oItbc tromps, tbc chcctoI
, he
spade co
mb|nat|ons bas bccomc ncotra||:cd so tbat on|y tbc sp||ts |n tbc
111 1
110rs arc tbcdctcrm|n|ngIactor. TbcnombcroIcomb|nat|ons |n tbc m|nors
1 , PreJtcr
|oranB-sp| |ttbanIora9-J sp||t |ntbcrat|ooI 9.,cxact|ytbcsamc
t .|.|
-prcJ|ctcdby Kc|scy'sKo|c. TbostboscoddsrcIcrtotbc|n|t|a|cond|t|ons
1 11 the m|norso|tsasdca|t,tbccxc|os|vcvacantp|accs|npart|co|ar.
Howcvcr, tbcrc |s tbat onc roond oId|amonds tbat |n tbcon cannot bc
1 gnnred. At tbc t|mc oItbc cr|t|ca| p|ay |n tmmps tbc Sootb band bas hvc
(urre
nt vacant p|accs, not s|x,and tbcNortbband basc|gbt, not n|nc. Tbos
t he curent vacant p|accrat|o|sB. J, st|||vcnmocb |nIavoroItbchncssc. Tbc
,hrculty ar|scshomtbcIacttbattbcroondoId|amonds|n|t|atcdbyadcIcndcr
cmnnt bctboogbtoIasbc|ngarandomoconcncc |ntbc str|ctcstscnsc. As
lothJc|cndcrsbavcIo||owcdtotbchrstroondoId|amonds, tbcrcbasbccnno
-urrri se |ortbcom|nghomap|aytbatappcarstobcroot|nc,bot|t|sonrcasonab|c
t assumctbatnocbangcbasoconcdasarcso|toIsomcd|amondcomb|nat|ons
h|\ |ng bccn rcmovcd hom cons|dcrat|on. So tbc ods |n Iavor oI Nortb's
ho|J|ngtbc trompqoccn ||c somcwbcrcbctwccn 9. andB. J. Tbc cxact rat|o
l not |mportant, asbtbodsgrcat|yIavortak|ngtbc hncssc. |t'stbcdcc|s|on
that's |mportant,nottbccst|mat|onoIboww|dc tbcmarg|n.
When the opponents have used up one of thei r five trumps fr a ruf, there
are four trumps remai ni ng. Afer a round of trumps i s drawn successful ly, the
current vacant places can be used as a guide as K whether K finesse fr the
queen or play for the drop.
Cmom5 l APt|ot|OaMVaotPmes | 7J l
Tis page intentionally lef blank.
CHAPTER6
NmN HcfN
cLLcLf
Pln are the dreams of the reaonle .
Emcst vonFcocbtcrs|cbcn| l BO- l B49I
=
=

e
e
=

`
`
` 4
\\c ha
\'c seen tbat wbcn tbcJcIcndcrsIo||oww|tb |owcards,dcc|arcrssboo|d
,j ,,
a
ccor
d|ng to jayncs' |r|nc|p|c anJ assomc cvcn sp||ts tbroogboot |n tbc
1 J,,Incc
o||nIormat|on to tbc contrary. Tb|s |cJ to bb's ||nd Ko|c. Gatbcr
. l much |o|ormat|on as yoo saIc|ycan, tbcn p|ayIor so|ts tosp||tascvcn|y
l
'' "'
i hl
c un
der tbcc|rcomstanccs. Wctcrmcd tb|s m|c 'b||nd', bccaosc |t takcs
1I !
account oItbcrc|cvanccoItbcspotcarJsp|aycd. otoIcoorsc, |nrca|||Ic
hi spot carJsarcrc|cvant,wb|cb|cadsosto.
ADJUNCT TO BOB'S BLI ND RULE: if you can see a beter pl ay, make it.
Rcausc |t|sbascdontbc|ntcrcbangcab|||tyoItbcspotcards, bb's||ndKo|c
, J I ,cunts tbchncrpo|ntsoIp|ay. |Idcc|arcrd|sccmsad|hcrcnccdoctoranktbat
| i portant,bcsboo|dmakcoscoItbc|mp||cat|ons,bowcvcr, |Ibc |sonawarc

|O s|go|hcantd|hcrcnccdoctorank,tbcntbcoddsIavorancvcnsp||tovcran
+oevcosp||t. Hcsboo|dpayspcc|a|attcnt|ontotbcn|nc|nakcyso|t |tmay
|O s|go|hcantcard,sobst|tot|ngIortbctcnorgoard|ngaga|nsttbctcnbc|dby
t he oDDOs|t|on. Wc'||d|scossancxamp|c|atcr|ntb|scbaptcr.
6ds
iCH||y tbc adv|cc |s tb|s. |Itbc s|toat|on |sso comp|cx tbat yoo cannot
*VL O ol u
t|on,tbcns|mp||handso|vctbcs|mp|crprob|cm. |Iyooarc|ocky,tbc
l

t |ooto
tbcs|mp|cprob|cm app||cs a|sototbc onso|vab|c prob|cm wb|cb |t
rl'cmhl
c
s.
"A totOdds and Suit Sp
lits
Th most impnt thing R know is how your suits are going to beak.
Hogb Kc|scy |nAdvanced Ply at Bridge

th
e Jommycomcsdown,dcc|arcrsccsbowtbcdcIcndcrs'cardsarcJ|v|dcd

tbcso|ts. A|tboogbbcwoo|d||kctogatbcr|nIormat|onconccm|ngbow

s
u
its
arcgo|ngto brcak, tbcrc arcocas|ons
wbcn adcc|s|on most bc maJc
Cmp l Iojomr|ooTmmaMDecOrPOy I 7 5
I
be|orctheproccsscanbconJcrtakcnw|tbsa|cty. Kc|scy'saJv|cc|storc|yon
th

0piori oJJs,wh|cb,aswcknow,opcratc|nastatcoImax|momonccrta|nty. A
n
a|tcmat|vc approacb |sto app|y jayncs' |r|nc|p|c, os|ngtbcJ|str|bot|ono|
th,
so|tstbat basbccomc known wbcn tbcdommyappcars. Lcoorsc,d|scr
ct|o
n
mostbcobscrvcd. Hcrc |sancxamp|chomtbcbookqootcdabovctbatcanb
oscdto|||ostratctbca|tcmat|vcapproacbcs.
West ost
A S
D
K 8 7 6 2
<; 3 <; A 9 7 4 2
A K QJ 1 0 6 4 3
+ A 8 4 + K 5
Weat Nom ost Wm
2 pass 2. pass
4 pass 4< pass
4NT pass 50 pass
5NT pass 6< pass
70 al l pass
Tbcb|dd|ng|so|d-Iasb|oncdbotchcct|vcandagrands|am|srcacbcd|nwb|ch
twc|vc tr|cksarcassorcd ohtbctop. Nortb|cadstbc 47 and Kc|scyasksthc
qocst|on,bow sboo|d dcc|arcrdcvc|opa tb|rtccntbtr|ck' ncway |sto rf d
c|ob|ndommy. Tb|srcqo|rcsc|obstobsp||tnowonctbanJ-J. AscconJwar
|s todrawtromps |mmcd|atc|yandcstab||sba spadc tr|cktbroogbrohs, wb|ch
rcqo|rcsspadcstosp||tnoworsctban4-Z. Tbca mmoddsIortbchrstp|ay arc
79%andIortbcsccond,B4%. Know|ngtbcscoddscnab|csdcc|arcrtomakcthc
corrcctcbo|cc.
An a|tcmat|vc approacb |s to cons|dcr tbc var|ooscommon sp||ts |n th.
contcxtoItbcm||dca|. Notb|ng|sknownoItbcd|str|bot|onoItbcso|ts|nthc
dcIcndcrs'bandsaparthomtbcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs,wb|cb|s-7-J-B. Tbcqocst|oo
|stb|s.|s|tmorc||kc|ytbattbcc|obssp||t-Zortbcspadcssp||tJ- I ' Wcsawi n
tbc prcv|ooscbaptcrtbat takcn |n|so|at|on|t|smorc||kc|ytbat tbcc|obsSp||I
-Z. Tbos|t|smorcdangcroostotntomhac|obtban |t|stop|ayonspadcs.
Hcrcarchvccommoncond|t|ons|nordcroIprobab|||ty.
3 - 3
<; 4 . 3
2 - 3
+ 4 - 4
c
ll
4 - 2
<; 3 . 4
2 - 3
+ 4 - 4
0. 75 C
lll
4 . 2 (0.75)
< 4 - 3
2 - 3
+3 . 5 (0. 8)
0. 6 C
| 7 I rUge, Promi|iaMIojmaoo
I
4 . 2 (0.75)
<; 4 . 3
3 - 2
2 6 (0.4)
0.3 c
V
5 . 1 (0.
3)
<; 3 - 4
2 - 3
3 . 5 (0. 8)
0.24 C
Conditions I, II and l l l
Condition IV
Condition V
both l i nes of play succeed
establish the spades, don't atempt a club ruf
ruf a cl ub
]
hc
d|st|nct|on bctwccn romng a c|obandromng a spadc comcs on|y wbcn

m-|
dcr|ngCond|t|ons|VandV Cond|t|on|Vrcprcscntstbcgrcatcrnombcr
1
,
,
com
b|nat|ons, bcncc |s tbc morcprobab|c, sodcc|arcrsboo|d w|n tbc c|ob
kad
|n
band,drawtrompsandattcmpttocstab||sbtbcspadcs.
Od
ds
and Evens
]hc 0 mm odds |ncomoratc a|| sp||ts at oncc, wbcrcas tbc hvc common
coJ|t|onsobv|oos|ydonot. |t |s wonbwb||c toscc |Itbcrc |sa morc rc||ab|c
uVtoasscsstbcprobab|||t|csattbctab|c. Notctbattbcrcdso|tsarccomposcd
1
,
,
11Jd nombcrs oIcards. Tbcrc arc two ways tbat tbcsc can comb|nc w|tb
ax|mumonccna|nty,oncwayprov|d|ngno|mba|anccoIvacantp|accsandtbc
1
thcrcrcat|ngan|mba|anccoIZ.
No i mbalance < 4 3
0 2 - 3
Io|cl 6 -
I mbalance of 2 < 4 - 3
0 3 - 2
7 - S
< 3 - 4
0 2 - 3
S - 7
.- cons|dcrtbcsp||ts|ntbcb|ackso|ts,wb|cbarccr|t|ca||ntbcdcc|s|on.
Balanced at 7 - 7
1 . s
6 - 2
Unbal anced at 6 8
I
1 - 5
S - 3
2 - 4
+ S - 3
II
2 - 4
4 - 4
3 - 3
+ 4 - 4
Ill
3 - 3
+ 3 - S
4 - 2
+ 3 - S
I
4 - 2
2 - 6
s - 1
2 - 6
v
s - 1
1 - 7
Whc
0 tbc vacant p|accs arc ba|anccd, tbcrc |s no prcIcmncc bctwccn mmng
+

-.
orro
mngspadcs,tbcysoccccdorIa||togctbcr,so|tmattcnnotwb|cb||nc
Jc
c|
ar
crsc|ccts. Howcvcr,w|tb3 |mba|anccoIZ,tbcspadcmhsoccccdswbcrc
the c
|ob
rohIa||sondcrCnd|t|on |V wbcrcas tbc c|ob mhsoccccds and tbc
`P!

c
mh
Ia||sondcrCnd|t|on |. AsCnd|t|on |V|stbcmorcprobab|c|ntbc
|
!
tio
of
.4,tbc|nd|cat|on|stbatdcc|arcrsboo|dp|ayIortbcspadcroh.
Cmm l InjmmTmmaMDecmFmy | 77 |
Bob' s Blind Rule and Vacant Places
bb's||ndKo|c|sbascdontbcnombnoIcomb|nat|ons|n tbcso|tstbat
ar
c
,
bcp|aycd,so|stbcoscoIvacantp|accstocst|matcprobab|||t|cs. A|tboogh
.
.
arcnotcqo|va|cnt,tbctwomctbodssbarccommongroondandbavcs|m||ar|t|e
To |||ostratctb|spo|nt,bcrc|sas|mp|ccxamp|c|nwb|cbtbcdcc|arcr|s
-
.
.
.

by v|goroos prccmpt|on toagrand s|am bc woo|d nototbcm|scbavcb|d.

a,
car|ydcc|s|on|srcqo|rcd|ntbctmmpso|t.
West ost

D
A 9 7
< 9 4 < A 1 0 8
0 K Q 8 5 0 A 7 6
+ A 1 0 9 8 7 6 4 QJ 5 3
Weat Nom ost Wm
pass 2. dbl 4.
54 pass 64
dbl * pass 74 al l pss
Wcst'sdoob|cwasoItbc ops|dc-down var|cty, sbow|ng|ntcrcst|n b|dd|ogthc
grand s|am |Ipartncrbadcontro|s,wb|cbbcd|dbavc. Sootb's b|dd|ng
.
thc
k|ndoItcncncoontcrcd|nbr|dgcc|obs,andbccoo|dbabcro|Idcc|arcrd

cso`
hndtbc 4K.
Tbc|cad |stbccxpcctcdK. Wcstw|ns tbcA,d|scard|nga|os|ngheart
homband,and|cadstbc+, towb|cbSootbIo||owsw|tbtbc4Z. Tohncssct|
nottohncssc.tbat|stbcqocst|on. Lt'sgotbroogbtbcprocssoIcst|mat|ogt|w
probab|||t|csos|ngvacantp|accs.
|t|srcasonab|ctoassomcNortbbo|dss|xspadcstoSootb'sIoor. Tb|s|ca
scvcn vacant p|accs |n tbc Nortb band and n|nc vacant p|accs |n tbc
bo
u||
band. TbcIo||vacantp|accsana|ys|sgos3 Io||ows.
Inclusive VP
Cl ubs
Exclusive VP
N$VocontPIoces
7 9 7 9
0 2
L
7 7 6 8
DnmePIm
I nitial 7 9
S fllows ? 8
ots|dc tbc c|ob so|t, tbc Ioonccn vacant p|accs |n bcarts and d|amonds
-'
'
bcsp||t77or-B. Tbc rc|atcd nombnoIcomb|nat|ons|mp|yamt|ooI
8
: 7
i
'
IavoroItbccvcnsp||t|ntbcrcdso|tsandtbcscarctbcodds|nIavoroIhn
css|^

SootbIortbc4K. Kc|scy'sKo|capp||cs,s|ncctbcrc|soncrcma|n|ngootstao
d
|
^

cardandtbatcard|sanbonor.
L
e
t
'
s
c
xam|nctbcs|toat|onw|tbrcgardtotbcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs.
6ondMonI CondMonll

6 - 4 6 - 4
T 4 - 4 4 - 4
( 2
4 (0.75) 9
3 3

1 1
0 2 (0.5)
CondMonlll
6 - 4
3 . 5 (0. 8)
9
3 . 3
1 1
CondMon I
6 - 4
3 . 5 (0. 8)
9
4 . 2 (0. 75)
0 - 2 (0.5)
|l t vn
that spa
dcsarcsp||t-4,Cond|t|on| rcprcscntstbcmost| |kc|yd|v|s|on
,
i
J
e
s
T
c rcd so|ts arc sp||t B-. Cond|t|on || rcprcscnts tbc most ||kc|y
,h
\
' l
i
n
n
wbcn tbcc|obsarcsp||t0-Z, astbcrcdso|tsarccvcn|yd|v|dcdat 7-7.
|:, m
J
ition
| | s
morc probab|c |ntbcrat|ooIB. J. Tbat |stbcs|toat|onbcIorc a
ah
i s played andSootbIo||owsw|tb tbc4Z. cctbatocon,oncoItbc I - I
| , .
ha
s
bccn c||m|natcdhomCond|t|on | , mak|ng tbc I - I sp||tand tbc 0-Z
.| j .equ
al l
y popo|atcd,4Kontbcr|gbtor4Kontbc|ch,rcspcct|vc|y. |tbas
hc
1
mte a
qocst|onoItbcrat|ooIcardcomb|nat|ons|ntbcrcdso|ts,andtbcodds
t , l \' ''r taki ng tbchncssc|nc|obs.
However, tbcrc |s morc |nIormat|on ava||ab|c tbat most bc takcn |nto
.
1
ccmmt, namc|ytbatNonbbasopcncdawcaktwo |nspadcs5 probab|ydos
n i I h
n
|J|oorbcarts. Tb|sm|csootCond|t|ons| and| | , and|cavcsCond|t|ons
| | | and I V as tbc most ||kc|yd|str|bot|onsoIs|dcsg|vcn tbc b|dd|ng. |ntbcsc
L, the |mba|ancc|nspadcs|sncotra||:cdbytbc|mba|ancc|nbcans. TbcI - I
Guh
s
pl i t |srcdoccdbyba|Iwbcntbc4Zappcars,bottbcgrcatcrwc|gbt|sst|||
!| \'en to Cond|t|on| | | , bccaoscoItbccvcnsp||t|nd|amonds. Cond|t|on|||bas
hwme the Iavor|tcbya mam|noI4. J, sobascdonbb's||ndKo|c, dcc|arcr's
,fci sion sboo|dbctop|ayIortbcdrop.
I
f
we rctomtotbc vacant p|acc ana|ys|s wbcrctbc |nc|os|vcvacantp|accs
rc assomcd to bc scvcn and n|nc, wc scc tbat tb|s assompt|on d|d not takc
0IO accoonttbcrcstr|ct|ontbatNonbwoo|dn'tbo|dIoorbcarts. Abcansp||t
'| \ 1h||stbcvacantp|accscrcatcdbytbcspadcprccmpt,andw|tbtbcvacant
!'
b
e
e
s aJjos
tcdtoaba|anccdcond|t|on,dcc|arcrsboo|dp|ayIortbcdrop. Yoo
\ | h
sec
that tbcvacantp|accsargomcntbasbccomcqocst|onab|cbccaoscoItbc
u
n
cer
tai nty
oIbow to dchnc tbc vacant p|accs, tbat |s, wbctbcr or not bcans

9
o
u|Jbe |nc|odcd. Compar|sonoItbcmost||kc|yd|str|bot|ons,Cond|t|ons| | |
. t
n
J
I
V,
rcso|vcsanysocbd|mco|ty.
Tere
arc otbcr poss|b|c comb|nat|ons tbat woo|d bc nccdcd to ca|co|atc
` ``
e
x
a
c
t probab|||t|cs |nvo|vcd, bowcvcr, a Z-bcansp||twoo|don|yscncto
kre
ate
a
grcatcr|mba|ancc|ntbcvacantp|accsandwoo|dIavortbatp|aycvcn
l lh
tre.
T
e advantagcoIos|ngtbcmost||kc|ycand|datcs|stbatoncmosttakc
a
c
coonttbcsp||ts |na|| so|ts,sotbattbccond|t|on|ntbcbcanso|t|smorc
'
`
|

b
crccogn|:cd |ntbcbcatoItbc batt|c. Aswc||,tb|savo|dstbc tr|cky
'11'
s
ti
o
n
oIbow to |ncorporatc pan|a| know|cdgc |ntbc vacantp|acc ana|ys|s,
`` \ i
\
h
b
ts
at t
csamct|mcbtbtos|mp|candtocomp|cx.
The Divi si on of Si des
I n0acgnnct'sm|ndthctcatcmnypss|a|||t|cs ,m| | n0cnctt's
m|mthctcatcjcu.
5hunnu5utuk|| I 90J- I 97 I l
Whcn you sort your br|dgc hand |nto su|ts, a pattcm cmcrgcs wb|cb
yo
u
charactcr|tcbythcnumbroIcards|ncachsu|t. Asadcc|arcrcountsthccarJs
|ncachsu|thc|djo|nt|ybyh|msc|Iandthcdummy,hcautomat|ca||yhasacount
oIthccardshc|d |ncachsu|tbythcdcIcndcn. thc 's|dcs'. ncc th|shasbeen
obscncd and rccordcd, thc pss|b|||t|cs Ior thc dcIcndcrs' hands arc grcat|v
rcduccd |n numbr. Thc d|v|s|on oIs|dcs |s a most |mportantand ncg|ccteJ
charactcr|st|cw|thrcgardtocardp|ayand |sd|scusscd |ndcta||bc|ow, bothrst
|ct's|okathandpattcm,somcth|ngw|thwh|chcvcnonc|sIam|||ar.
Hand Paterns
nc may d|v|dc hand pattcm |nto mo catcgor|cs. notmmp hands and su|t-
or|cntcdhands,thcIomcrconta|n|nghandsw|that|casttwocards|ncacbsu|t.
Hcrcamthcmostcommonpattcmw|ththc|rprobab|||t|csoIbc|ngdca|ttoyou
|FDI.
Nmmp [%) ImbmonoI [%)
4432 2 1 . 6 543 1 1 2. 9
5332 1 5. 5 642 1 4. 7
4333 1 0. 5 633 1 3. 4
6322 5. 6 4441 3. 0
54221 5. 3 54221 5. 3
Totl 58. 5 Totl 28. 3
The Holistic Approach to the Divi si on of Si des
Ho||smt m|nmtutcKmmcuhkmgan|smhmmdcd
goupsojun|tsmrutcs ,aconccpt|nmdyappmkK Hcmm.
. b4ZZ hands ww i n their suitabilit fr nolump contacts and suit contracts, M this pa
t
rn
has ben divided eually ben the to categories. From the ab table W can

that 44Z,4 and bZconstitte nerly half the hands one is delt. The most co
mmon
ptern with a singletn i s b4 , ocurring abut once i n weight dels. The implic
a
t
i
ons
of thi s with reard to bidding systems are disussed i n a subsuent chapter.
l 80 I m, Pm|Injm
|
c
d|str|bot|on oItbc twcnty-s|xcardscontro||cd by tbcdcc|arcrdctcrm|ncs
(hc
d|str|bot|onoItbccardsbc|dby tbcdcIcndcrs. |Idcc|arcrand tbcdommy
h
a
vcbctwccntbcmc|gbtspadcs,scvcnbcarts,s|xd|amondsandhvcc|obs,tbc
Jc|cndcrsmostbo|dhvcspadcs,s|xbcarts,scvcnd|amondsandc|gbtc|obs.botb
s|
Jcsbavcad|str|bot|ondcnotcdasB7. |Idcc|arcr'scardsarcd|v|dcd777|a||
.JJno
mbcrsI, tbcdcIcndcrscardsarcd|v|dcdB|a||cvcnI .
Two
bandsw|tb44JZ pattcmdon'tncccssar||ycomb|nct oprodocc a 0at
J|str|b
ot|onoItbctb|rtccncards. BB4|saposs|b|||ty,as|s77. Tbctromptota|
| o
thcIormcr|sscvcntccnand|ntbc|attcrIoortccn, |nd|cat|ngavastd|hcrcncc
|o
tr|ck-tak|ngpotcnt|a|.S|m||ar|y,two4ZZbandscanprodoccad|str|bot|onoI
| O
4wbcrcasad|hcrcntm|xm|gbta|sorcso|t|n77.
Howarc tbcdcIcndcrs'so|tscxpcctcdtosp||t ' TcgrcatcrtbcnombcroI
rc|atcd
cardcomb|nat|onsposs|b|c,tbcgrcatcrtbcprobab|||tytbatapart|co|ar
sct
oIsp||ts w|||ocor. Tb|s cond|t|on |s mct, as osoa|, wbcn tbc so|ts arcas
ev

o|y
d|v|dcdasposs|b|c. Lct'stakcasancxamp|ctbcB-7--5s|dcswbcrctbc
Jc|codcrsbavc|cngtb|ntbcmajors.
ll lll lV Om
4 - 4 5 - 3 3 - 5 6 - 2 4 - 4 (70)
< 3 - 4 < 3 - 4 < 5 - 2 < 3 - 4 4 - 3 (35)
0 3 - 3 0 3 - 3 0 3 - 3 0 2 - 4 3 - 3 (20)
3 - 2 2 - 3 + 2 - 3 2 - 3 3 - 2 ( 1 0)
c o. e c 0.48 C 0. 3 c c " 490,000
c grcatcst nombcroIcardcomb|nat|ons |CIIorB7 |src|atcd to tbcsp||ts
|
h
^
tarcc|oscsttocvcnasposs|b|c|Cond|t|on1 ). Tb|s,tbcn,|stbcmostprobab|c
|tuat|on. Tbc nombcroIcardcomb|nat|onsIoraband |n wb|cb knownsp||ts
occur|stbcprodoctoItbcnombcroIcomb|nat|ons|ncacbso|ttakcnscparatc|y.
hc
scnombcrsarcsbownontbcr|gbt. As|mp|cmo|t|p||cat|ony|c|dstbcrcso|t
|hat tbcrc arc49O,OOOways |nwb|cbCnd|t|on I canbc dca|t, nota nombcr
aov
nc
w|sbcs to can amond |n onc's bcad Ior mtorc rcIcrcncc. Howcvcr,
|
0crc |snonccdtowork w|tb socb|argc nombcrs, s|ncc probab|||t|csarcrat|os
c
xprcsscd |nnombcrstbatronhomOto I . Sow|tboot|ossoIgcncra||ty,wbcn
co
par|ngcascs,yoocanosctbcmt|osoItbcnombcrsoIcomb|nat|onstoobta|n
rc|at|v
cp
robab|||t|cs.
|Itbc spadc so|t |sIoonddor|ngtbccar|yp|ay tosp||t J-J |nstcadoI4-4,
|
0cr
c|san
|mba|anccoItwocardsw|tb|ntbcso|ttbatmostbcaccommodatcdby
|
0cp
|accmcnt|ntbcotbcrtbrccso|ts. Tb|scanbcacb|cvcdmostcmc|cnt|yby
rotat|ngtbccomb|nat|ons|nanodd-nombcrcdso|t| Cond|t|onI I I . Tbcotbcr
`
|tsrcta|ntbc|rbcstsp||ts,bottbcc|obso|tbastbrcccardsontbcr|gbt|nstcad
'!
f
n
tbc
|ch. Tbc nombcroIcard comb|nat|ons |srcdoccd bya IactoroIO. B
|r
o
m
thcmax|momrcprcscntcdbyCond|t|onI.
Cmm l Io/m aoo1hemnnd IarI l= MI l
|nConJ|t|on| | | , an|mba|ancco|3 cx|sts|ntbcbcartso|t,anJnowrotat|ng
an oJJ-nombcrcJ so|t cannot |o||y accommoJatc tbat J|hcrcncc. Tc oth
cr
so|ts can no |ongcr rcta|ntbc|ropt|ma|sp||ts, anJ onco|tbc so|ts |s|orccJ to
sp| |tmorconcvcn|y. Tbc|mba|ancc|smadcopmostcmc|cnt|ybycbang|ngt
0
c
4-4sp||ttoaJ-sp||t. Tbcrcso|t|ngnombcro|carJcomb|nat|ons|srcdoccJto
O.4BoItbcmax|momava||ab|cIortbcB-7--s|dcs.
|Itbcspadcsarcsp||t-Z| |mag|nctbatWcstbasopcncdawcaktwo|nspadcsI,
tbc |mba|ancc |ntbcso|t|sIoorcardsandtbcnombcroIcardcomb|nat|ons|s
rcdoccd by a IactoroIO.J |Cond|t|on |Vl. Tbc d|amonds arc morc ||kc|y
to
d|v|dcZ-4,w|tbIoorontbcr|gbt,tbanJ-J, aga|nsttbccxpcctat|onoItbca mo
odds,sodcc|arcrsboo|d p|anaccord|ng|y.
Wcnotcattb|s t|mctbatIortbca||-cvcns|dcs, B, |Ioncso|t |s|oonJto
bcsp||toncvcn|y,anotbcrso|tmosta|sobcsp||toncvcn|y. |Itbcc|gbtcardsare
sp||t-J, tbcnmostprobab|yoncso|toIs|xcards|ssp||t4-Z. |t |sa|sopos
s|b|e
tbata||tbrccso|tsbavcsocbasp||t,bottbcoddsarcrcdoccdbyaIactoro|O.56,
anotbcrcxamp|coIwbyas|mp|cassompt|on|sosoa||ytbcbcstassompt|on.
Wcbavcsccnbowtoca|co|atctbcproport|onoIso|tcomb|nat|onscas||yat
tbctab|c. Tbcma|npo|ntI w|sbtomakc|stbattbcsp||t|noncso|tahcctsthe
sp||t|nanotbcrso|t. Dcc|arcnsboo|dtakctb|s|ntoaccoontandnottrcatcach
so|tas|ndcpcndcnt. Tbcb|dd|ng,tbcopcn|ng|cad,tbcp|ayoIaIcwroonJsof
cards, a|| prov|dc |nIormat|onandtoagrcatcror|csscrcxtcntactto|nva||Jatc
tbca mmcst|matcsmadc|nastatcoImax|momonccrta|nty.
Vacant Places Ratios Con Stil Apply
Avar|ancc|n tbc nombcroIcardsbc|d|nd|hcrcntso|tsdos not |nva||datcthc
oscoIvacantp|accsrat|os |ntbcdctcrm|nat|onoIpmbab|||t|cs. Lct'stakcthc
cxamp|coItcnvacantp|accstobch||cdbys|xd|amondsandIoorc|obs,cacbsu
it
m|ss|ngtbcqoccn. avacantp|accsargomcnt,tbcoddsoIc|tbcrqoccnbc|oc
|ntbcbandw|tbs|xvacanc|csopposcdtotbatw|tbIoorvacanc|csarc.4,thc
nombcroId|amondsandc|obs|nvo|vcdbav|ngnochcctontbcoddsass|gneJ
.
Hcrc|stbcbrcakdownIortb|ss|toat|on.
Diamonds Split 6 - 0 5 - 1 4 - 2 3 - 3 2 - 4
Combi nati ons 1 6 1 5 20 1 5
Cl ubs Split 0 - 4
1.
2 - 2
8
4 - 0
+ Combi nations 1 4 6 4
Total Combi nations 24 90 80 1 5 Total of 2
1 0
l bZ | nc,Pom|||Injm
[
bctota|nombcrsoIcardcomb|nat|onsIorwb|cbtbc0|sontbc|cItorontbc
t|gbtarc.
~
on lef
~
on the right
1
0
20
4
60
30
40
40
5
1 0
Total of 1 26
Total of 84
[
bcrat|ooIcardcomb|nat|ons|s.4asprcd|ctcdbytbcvacantp|accrat|o.
Tbc
tota|numbcrsoIcardcomb|nat|onsIorwb|cbtbc+ |sontbc|chor
l
lO tbcr|gbtarc.

Q on lef

Q on the right
0
1
6
1 8
45
45
60
20
1 5
0
Total of 1 26
Total of 84
A|tbougb tbc numbcrs oI c|ubs and d|amonds arc d|hcrcnt, |n tota| thcrc
i- no d|st|nct|on bctwccn tbc 0 and tbc + w|tb rcgard to tbc numbr oI
cob|nat|onsontbc|chandontbcr|gbt. Tbcrat|ooI.4app||cscqua||ytoany
spcc|hcm|nor-su|tcard,bc|tanbonorora|owcard. Tbcprobab|||tyoItbcdca|
Joes notmakcanyd|st|nct|onaccord|ngtorank.
The Di stri buti on of Si des
wcNgnumjJ.
- Ar|stot|c|JB4-JZZbl
BriJgctcacbcrsarcIorcvcradv|s|ngstudcntstbatasdcc|amnthcysbou|dtakca
|nutctotb|nkbcIorcp|ay|ngtothchrsttr|ck. uradv|cc |ss||gbt|yd|hcrcnt.
co

nthrst,tbcntb|nk. Tb|nk,ycs,butoIwbat ' It|scountcmroduct|vctodwc||

l l\erly |ong ontbc|nadcquac|csoItbcdummy. Ahcra||,aco|dcontmct gcts
vo
no
g|ory|t|stbctr|ckyonctbata||owsyoutocxcc|. 5oas|mp|c'Tbank
vo
,partncr'|sa||tbat|srcqu|rcdtocxprcssyourgrat|tudcIoronccmorcbc|ng
J
pcJ |ntbcsoup.
|nordcrtomakcm||uscoIFrobab|||tyTbcon,dcc|arcr'shnttask|storccord

enta||y tbcs|dcs, that |s, tbcnumbcnoIcardsbc|dby tbcopponcnts|ncach

i t.
1oscnumbcn,un||kcb|gbcardpo|nts, arc rca|, notan|nvcnt|on. Tbcy
JI
c t
hc
c|cvat|onsoItbc tcn|ton |nwh|chyou mustopcratc, bc |tas 0at as a
p
la
in,
or
as sbapc|y asa mounta|n mngc. Morcovcr, tbcy arc a rcm|ndcr tbat
t
he
r
e arca
hn|tc numbroIcardsIorcacbp|aycrand tbattbcs|tuat|on|nonc

it
ust
ncccssar||y|mpactupntbcs|tuat|on |nanotbcr.
J
H
crcarc
tbrcccommond|str|but|onstbatmakcuprougb|y40%oIa||poss|b|c
+
|
-
a|ongw|tbtbcprobab|||tytbatyours|dcwou|dbcdca|ttbatd|str|but|on.
Cmm l ImTmmDccmFmy [ bJ I
Your Si de
8765
7766
7775
Their Si de
8765
7766
8666
Probabi l i t
23.6%
1 0.5%
5. 2%
Total Trumps
1 6
1 4
1 5
Tbc hrst two s|dcs ||stcd bavc two cvcn and two odd numbcrcd su|ts.
1
c
oppos|t|on s|dc bas tbcsamcd|str|but|onand tbc tota| numbcroItmmps |s
ao
cvcn numbcr. Tbc tb|rd s|dc |s a|| cvcn ononc s|dc and a|| oddon tbcotb
er
Tbcrcsu|t|stbattbcnumbcroItota|tmmps|sanoddnumbcr. Tbctr|ck-tak|ng
potcnt|a|oIoncs|dcw|||tbcrcIombcgrcatcrtbantbcotbcr.
TbcB7Js|dc|stbcmostcommonbyIar. btbNortb-5outbandLast-West
bavcanc|gbt-card ht. Tb|s rcprcscnts wbat manybavccomc to tb|nk oIas a
noma| s|tuat|on. Gcncra||y tbc Icc||ng |s ak|n to tbat wbcn bo|d|ng a
4
4
32
band pattcm. Tbca mmprobab|||tytbatnc|tbcroppncnthas|ng|ctont
vo|d |sJ4%,sotbca|armbc||sarcnotr|ng|ngcar|y.
Tbc 77s|dc |stbccqu|va|cntoIa4JJJ band. IntbcabscnccoIb|dd|n
g,
youcxpcct0atbandsaroundtbctab|c. Tbcprobab|||tyoInos|ng|ctonorvo|J
|ntbc opponcnts' bands |s 4%. Tb|s g|vcs dcc|arcr t|m|ng. Tcapproac
b
t

tbcp|ayw|tbtb|ssbapc|snt toracctowardsaqu|ckrcm|ut|onoItbccontract,
butmtbcr to mancuvcrtbcoppncnu |nto brcak|ngncwsu|u. Dc|arcr w|||
ducktr|cksandtb|nkabutsctt|ngupcndp|ays.
W|tb a n|nc-card major-su|t ht, onc tcnds to p|ay |n a su|t contmct anJ
tbc probab|||ty oIsbortagcs |s grcatcr. W|tb a n|nc-card m|nor, onc cxpcctsa
compct|t|vcauct|on.
Your Side
9764
9665
Their Side
9764
8774
Probbil it
7. 3%
6. 6%
Totl Trumps
1 8
1 7
Itmaybcsurpr|s|ngtosomctbatmc|proa|n|nc-cardhuarcmhcqucnt.
D.
Iavorstbcb|db|ddcrs. TbcB774 |san|ntr|gu|ngs|dc,3 |ntb|scasctbctw
o
s|dcs arc not matcbcd. Wb|cb d|str|but|onoIs|dcs wou|d you prcIcr to b
o|J'
Tb|s sbows tbatonc s|dc's bo|d|nga n|nc-cardhtdosnotguamntcc tbat
thc
otbcrs|dca|sobo|dsan|nc-cardht.
Your Side
9755
9854
8855
Their Side
8864
9854
8855
Probbi l i t
4. 9%
4. 1 %
3. 3%
Totl Trumps
1 7
1 8
1 6
It|sn'tunt||oncrcacbcsc|gbtbp|acc|nmqucncyoIocuncncctbatoncaga|
0
cncountcrsapa|roIs|dcsw|tboutan|nc-camht. A|thougbbthconta|ns|xt

c
0
| 8 | me, Pom|aMInjm
r
ot
a
l tromps, BB |smorc tbana m|norvar|at|onon tbc mocbmorccommon
q)
n
]
. |n
b|sbookTo U0 NotR U,LarnCbcncommcntstbatbandsw|tb
Jo
u
bl
e
c|gbt-card hts p|ay wc||, tbc rcason bc|ng tbat a dcc|arcr may dcvc|op
r
ricks
|nc|tbcr|ongso|t.
Th
e
8765 Distri buti on of Si des
cca0t, dsc0mcsmt , jmc0htutc.
- H|ppomtcs|40-J77bl
T
his | s tbc most common d|v|s|on oIs|dcs, 5 |t dcscncs spcc|a| attcnt|on.
Dec
la
r
e
rs and dcIcndcn bavc tbc samcd|str|but|on oIs|dcs, butgcncra||ynot
the samcd|v|s|on. InIact,tbcrc|snospcc|a|rc|at|onsb|pbctwccntbcd|v|s|on
ononcs|dc to tbc d|v|s|on on tbc otbcrwbcn tbc bands arc dca|t random|y.
5hurmc dcsn'tatoatsmc. Tbc most |ntcrcst|ngaspct |s tbc m|at|onsb|p
with as|dcbctwccntbcmajor|ncvcnnumbcn|c|gbtands|xIandtbcm|nor|ty
oJJ nombcrs |scvcn and hvcI. Hcrc arc tbc hvc most common d|v|s|ons Ior
8=5=7=6 w|tbtbcrc|at|vcnumbcnoIcomb|nat|ons.
W E W E W E W E W E
4 - 4 ( 1 .0) ' 5 - 3 (0. 8) 4 - 4 ( 1 .0) 5 - 3 (0. 8) 5 - 3 (0. 8)
\ 3 - 2 ( 1 .0) 2 - 3 ( 1 .0) 2 - 3 ( 1 .0) 2 - 3 ( 1 .0) 3 - 2 ( 1 .0)
3 - 4 ( 1 .0) 3 - 4 ( 1 .0) 3 - 4 ( 1 .0) 4 - 3 ( 1 .0) 2 - 5 (0.6)
3 - 3 ( 1 .0) 3 - 3 ( 1 .0) 4 - 2 (0.75) 2 - 4 (0.75) 3 - 3 ( 1 .0)
c o. 8c 0. 75C 0.6C 0.48C
T
h
e mostprobab|cd|v|s|onoIs|dcs|smadcupoI44JZand4JJJ. Tbatd|v|s|on
|nJ the ncxt most ||kc|y btbcncompassa J-J sp||t|ntbcs|x-cardsu|t,c|ubs.
|
c
|
'scomparctbcJ-Jw|tbtbc4-Zd|v|s|onoIc|ubs.
Combi nations fr clubs 3-3:
Combi nations fr clubs 4-2:
c o. 8c o.48C - 2. 28C
0. 75C 0.6C 1 . 35C
T
he co
mb|nat|onsw|tbaJ-Jsp||toutnumbrtboscw|tb4-Zsp||tbyaIa|rmarg|n.
Without |ntcncrcnccdur|ngtbcb|dd|ng,dcc|arcrm|gbtIavortbcJ-Jsp||tdor|ng
t
he p
l
a
y
. Motctbatc|ubsmpmnttbc|owctnumbroIcvcn|l.
The
5431 Hand

c
notcdprcv|ous|y, J4J I |stbcmosthcqucntsbapcconta|n|ngas|ng|cton
`` ' "
a
po), andtbchcqocncyoIocuncnccvar|csw|tbtbcd|str|bot|onoI
CMm l InjmTmmDecmFmy l b5 !
s|dcs. W|tbanB70d|str|but|on,|t|srcduccdtol Z. Z%. Hcrcarcsomccom
m

a
comb|nat|ons.
W E W E W E W E W E
5 . 3 (0. 8) 4 - 4 ( 1 .0) 5 . 3 (0. 8) 5 . 3 (0. 8) 3 . 5 (0. 8
)
c 1 - 4 (0. 5) 1 4 (0.5) 1 - 4 (0. 5) 3 . 2 ( 1 .0) 1 4 (0.5
)
< 4 . 3 ( 1 . 0) 5 . 2 (0.6) 3 - 4 ( 1 .0) 4 . 3 ( 1 .0) 5 . 2 (0. 6)
3 . 3 ( 1 .0) 3 - 3 ( 1 .0) 4 . 2 (0.75) 1 5 (0. 3) 4 . 2 (0. 7
5)
0.40C 0. 30C 0. 30C 0. 24C 0. 1 8C
Combi nations with + 3-3 totol 0. 7C. Combi nations with + 42 total 0.48C.
Tbcrcarcccrta|ncomb|nat|onstbatarcnota||owcd. Iorcxamp|c,w|tb4J
|
p|aycrcan'tbcmatcbcdw|tbapanncra|sobo|d|ng51J l andst|||IormasiJ
ol
B70. Tb|sahcctstbcprobab|||t|csoItbcocuncnccoIa51J l bandIoragivea
d|str|but|onoIs|dcs.
IItbcdcIcndcnbavccntcrcdtbcb|dd|ng,tbcybavcg|vcnaway|nIomatica
on tbc d|v|s|on oI s|dcs, |nIormat|on tbat sbou|d b |ncomoratcd |nto vca(
dcc|s|onmak|ng. IItbcybavcpasscdtbrougbout,tbata|soprov|dcs|nIormatica.
but |t |s oIa |css ccna|n k|nd. As a rcsu|t, yousbou|d wc|comc |ntcrvcntica
tbat prov|dcs |nIomat|on on d|str|but|on w|tbout prom|s|ngcnougb strcncta
tocompctc mnbcr. Tboscwboovcrca||on m|n|ma| va|ucsw|tbout rcmovin:
b|dd|ngspacc,andw|tboutb|ngab|ctoconv|nccapanncrtbat|t|swortbwhi|
topusbb|gbcr,arcbcncIactonwboscgcncros|nsbou|dnotbcrcmscd.
Goi ng with the Odds
Science an Opinion: t fst bget pogess , t secon, igane.
- H|pporatcs|10O-J77bI
Tbc Intcmct|sawondcm|mcd|umIor tbccxcbangcoIop|n|ons. br|dg
c
P!
n||nc|saIac|||tyIordropp|ng|noncontcstsbtwccncxpcrtscommcntc
Ju
|
. ii
by cxpcrts-|ongmay |tcont|nuc. 5omc ana|ysts arc cspcc|a||y |ns|gbt|u
|-
bart bram|cy, M|cbac| Koscnbrg and Lam Cbcn comc to m|nd, tbc
lat
tl' f
graccm||y tak|ng on tbcro|c oIa tcacbcr. My Iavor|tc appcarancc |s
th
at

'
Dcbb|c Koscnbcrg, wbosc w commcnts on bcr busband's mctbods ar
c
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cntcrta|n|ng.
|
but-a|ways tbc 'but' -and I tb|nk H|ppmtcs |Ibc wcrc st|||
ar
o
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wou|dagrccw|tbmcontb|sonc-tbcrc|stoohcntomucbop|n|onan
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m|s|cadtbcmasscsabuttbcadv|sab|||tyoIb|dd|ngs|amstbatarcnotobvil1
u

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d
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|n
part|co|ar,somccommcntatorssccmtobavc acccss toca|cu|ators
|

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<igncd
|ortbcporposco|g|v|ngoottbc0mmodds,wbcn|t|stbcconJ|t|ona|
'
;'|||t|cs tbat app|y. Hcrc |smy takconbow |t m|gbtcomc across w|tb an
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,
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wbcrc tbcrc |snoacknow|cdgcmcnt tbat tbcrc basoccorrcd a |argc
.
.
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a
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(
oa
c
a| |ab|cbyanopponcntdor|ngtbcaoct|on.
Nom
A
< A K 7 4
A QJ 3
J 7 6 4
West East
K QJ 9 7 4
D
6 5
6 < 1 0 9 3 2
8 5 2 1 0 9 7 4
1 0 9 3 + K Q 2
Su
1 0 8 3 2
< QJ 8 5
K 6
+ A 8 5
West Nom East Sut
pass pass
2. dbl pass 3<
pass 4NT* pass 5+*
pass 5* pass 6<
al l pass
1hc h
J |-
tbcK. Tbcb|dd|ngwasbad,botamakcab|cs|amwasrcacbcd,tbc

act|on tbat annoyscommcntators s|tt|ng on tbc s|dc||ncs wb||c somc
| u.kvODcSgcttom|sp|aytbcbands. Hcrc|sbowtbcbbbroadcastm|gbtcomc
\ tl -
lEas
t
'
s
p
ass
) - Greeti ngs, al l . This morni ng we are coming to you from
somewhere in the middle of the vast conti nent of Chi na,
Round 5 1 of the notional championships.
is it morni ng i n Chi na?
!Sou
t
h'
s pass
] -
would you open a weak NT?
-
not me, not with to four<ard majors
[
2
1
- Jason H would have opened 3, puts on the pressure
- I woul d
- me 2
[dbl] - ten tricks of the top i n 3NT to tie the board
- agree: 444 1 plays poorly as there are bad spl its about
- a cofee hand: anyone want me to bring same?
[3] - I wid bid 3NT 1 Oxx is a stopper versus nonvul
- but 3NT denies a stopper
- does any bid means what it says these days?
- so 3NT is right either way LOL
[4NT) - never bi ddi ng a bad slam means you never have to say you' re
sorry
[
5+] don't play 1 430, do they? surely not with hearts as trumps
- everyone in America does
I do
- I don't
[5] looki ng fr the queen
- was it Oscar Wilde who said I can resist anyhi ng bc|
tempttion?
- if he di dn't he should have
- they don't put you in j ai l for bridge mi sdemeanors
- sentenced K a year of yarbraughs
[6) queen and jack as wel l, but is it enough?
- I remember when we used to count pi nts. Bridge was fun i n
those days.
- sl am needs di amonds 4 and the lang hear with the long
di amond. I make it a 1 4. 09% chance, j ust above Roger's
Pl i msoll Line of 1 2. 93%.
- I 've been i n worse j ams an several conti nents
- South has K get it j ust right
- slams
lK led] - I lead a cl ub as they are prepared for a spade
- a trump
- LOL gota go
- who was that?
l bb I rme, PromaMIojmaoo
|

| t
r
oes. At|castoncgctscncourag|ng|ns|gbtsastowbatonc'sopponcnts
\tv

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th
|nk|ngattbctab|c.
i

i \
|
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k|n
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ata||Iourbands,cvcntbcspcctators,supposcJ|ya|owcr||IcIorm
l
th
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om
mcntators, can spotaw|nn|ng||nc. Tbcrcarcc|cvcntr|ckstobc
t 1 i i\

|
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t
-
|gbtIorward p|ay, so dcc|arcr bas to crcatc onc morc wmncr. Trs
ol
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mc Itom rumng twospadcs mtbcdummy, tbcsccondruhrcqurrmgatop
, . ti-

|
~ <,.
tbc
p|aygocs.tbcAandabcantotbc<; ruhaspadc|ow,ac|ob
] t 1'
I t ! t |u
acc,p|ayond|amondstotb|spos|t|on.
Nom

K
A
J 7 6
West
ou
QJ 9
D


1 1 0 9
0 -
1 0
1 0 9 + K Q
Su
1 0 8
1 J 8

8
V n r
hL OA, ac|ub|sd|scardcdhom tbc Soutb band, tbcn a c|ubmh, a spadc
. .
|I . mJ
+c|ubIromdummymhcdw|tbtbcj. Notctbat|Itbcjandtbc<t O
`' ..|+---d.tb|s||ncwou|dst|||workasacoupO psant wbcrcLtcan't
|ti ra
hly tudw|tbtbcmastcrtmmp.
hi ss
ccmsrcmarkab|ycasy,butdcc|arcrmustIormo|atcb|sp|anattbcstan.
| |
r-t
.|. --.count|ng tr|cks, cnv|s|on|ng tbc d|str|but|onoIs|dcs tbat works
| l
| . t
\
r of tbccontmct'sbc|ngacb|cvcd. It |srcasonab|ctoassumc tbcspadcs
' ` '!'l i
t 6
-2, sotbcmost probab|c d|str|but|onsattb|spo|ntarctbconcsg|vcn
l , l . ,w.
I
II Ill I v V
6 - 2
6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2

2 - 3
1 2 - 3 1 1 - . 1 3 - 2 1 1 - . 1 2 - 3
9
3 - 4
2 - 5 3 - . 2 - 5 . - 3 . - 3

2 -
4
3 - 3 3 - 3 2 - 4 2 - 4 1 - 5

|
d
l l
w
o
spa
cs |n dommy w||| succccd aga|nst any |cad |n a|| tbcsc most
`` ' ` t |
l

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V cas
cs
cxccpt Casc V, and cvcn tbcn tbcrc arc somc cbanccs. T|s
Cmpm l IojmaooTmmaMDecmrFmy [ b9 I
cva|uat|on|sa|arcn|romtbc 1 4% cst|matcJ|romasopcmc|a|appca|to0po
oJJs. A|| tbatbasbcen assumcJ |stbatWcstbo|dss|xspaJcsIorb|sprccmpt.
Supposctbat |nstcaJo|ma||nga|cngtbyana|ys|sadcc|arcrwcrcs|mp|yto
Io||owob's| |ndKu|c,cboos|ngtocons|dcron|ytbcmost|||c|ycst|matcIortbc
d|str|bot|ono|s|Jcs,tbatbc|ngtbconcw|tb tbcmostcvcnsp||ts|Casc 1 ) .
c
w|nn|ng p|ay woo|d bc mocb cas|crtocnv|s|on,and tbatp|aycr m|gbt procccJ
w|tbsomcdcgrccoIconhdcnccoIsocccss,cvcnontbcsbock|ngrcvc|at|ono|H
bad trompsp||t|Casc | | | I .
The 7766 Divi si on
Pl-ing fu cvcnsplit combines liklihowit optimism.
Tbc 77 |sto a s|dc wbat4JJJ |stoaband, namc|y, anocas|onIor caot
|oo
|ntbc b|dJ|ng and |ntbc p|ay. Tb|s |sonc oItbc rarc |onc-|n-tcnl ocas|oos
wbcrc tbc pcss|m|st tr|ompbs and tbc opt|m|st hna||y gcts b|s comcoppancc.
Tbc tab|c bc|ow conta|ns somccommond|v|s|om oIs|dcs w|tb tbc nombcrs
oIcomb|nat|ons notcd. Instcad oItbc m|| nombn oIcomb|nat|ons, wc sba||
notc on|y tbc rat|o oItbc g|vcn sp||t to tbc m|mom pss|b|c Ior tbc g|vco
d|str|bot|onoIs|Jcs,dcnotcd bytbc |cttcrC. Tbc nombn |nbrackctsarc tbc
rc|at|vcnombcroIcomb|nat|onsIorag|vcnnombcroIcardsw|tb|naso|t.
W E W E W E W E W E
4 - 3 ( 1 .0) 4 - 3 ( 1 . 0) 4 - 3 ( 1 . 0) 5 - 2 (0.6) 4 - 3 ( 1 .0)
< 3 - 4 ( 1 . 0) 3 - 4 ( 1 . 0) 3 - 4 ( 1 .0) 3 - 4 ( 1 . 0) 4 - 3 ( 1 .0)
3 - 3 ( 1 . 0) 2 - 4 (0. 75) 4 - 2 (0. 75) 3 . 3 ( 1 .0) 4 - 2 ( 1 .0)
3 - 3 ( 1 . 0) 4 - 2 (0. 75) 2 - 4 (0. 75) 2 - 4 (0. 75) 1 - 5 (0. 3)
c 0. 56C 0. 56C 0. 45C 0. 30C
Not a|| poss|b|||t|cs arc sbown, bot cnoogb to sbow tbat tbc conhgorat|on oI
4JJJoppos|tc4JJJ|savcnstab|c onc. Tbc ncxtc|oscstconhgomt|onoI4432
oppos|tc44JZprov|Jcson|y9Il oItbccomb|nat|ons,m|s|cprobab|c |ntbat
rat|o. Tbc most common conhgomt|on w|tb a s|ng|cton |s sbown on tbc Iat
r|gbt. Tbcprobab|||tyoItb|s|s |csstbanlIJtbatoItbcmost| |kc|yconhgorat|oo,
wb|cb |ssbownontbccxtrcmc|ch. Itwoo|dbasomr|sc|Ith|swcrctbcactua|
s|toat|on.
Wbcnadcc|arcrrccogn|:csb|ss|dc|s77,|tsboo|dmg|stcraotomat|ca||\
tbattbcopponcntsarca|so77. Tab|cJ0|nTmm0NTmmof Bre
by L. brc|andA. Cbcron|nIormsos tbataspc|hcddcIcndcrw|||bo|da
443
2
l 90 I me, PomaMIojm
pattcm Z9% oItbc t|mc, a 4JJJ pattcm 1 6% oItbc t|mc anJ 543 1 Dattcm
1 1 % oItbct|mc.Tbca mmoddsoIapart|co|arp|aycrbc|ngdca|tabanJwbere
tbc |on
gcst so|t |s oIIoor-card |cngtb |s JJ%, bot w|tb|n a 7 766 pattcm, tbc
ptobab|||ty|sc|osctoJ0%. Tbcd|hcrcnccshomtbca mmoddsarcs|gn|hcant
an
Jsbou|dbctakcn|ntoaccountbyadcc|arcr.
Lct'stakcabrcakhomtbconandwatcbahct|t|oosdcc|arcr |nact|on,onc
wbotbr|vcson77.
Emeritus Jones's 7766 Disaster in the Di ni ng Hal l
Pmmn
QJ 7 5
A 8 7
1 0 4 2
9 7 6
See how t wol ir veran reward!
A-outh of folcs , an ol ae of card
A|cxandcrIop( I BB- I74)
0nWemonWs NomeuosMe
4 K 9 2
4 3 2
A Q 7 6
Q 5 3
D
ms
4 A 8 3
K 6 5
K 5 3
+ A K 1 0 4
5mMmDonIcCbemIsm
1 0 6 4
QJ 1 0 9
J 9 8
+ J 8 2

T
ankyoummoch,panncr,'sa|dIroIcwrLmcr|tosM. L.]oncs,ahcct|onatc|y
koownabutcampm3'M|momL|kc||bojoncs',3bcnotcdw|tbsat|sIact|on
tbattbcprohcrcddommyprouccdcardstbatmadcupb|sIavor|tcd|str|but|on
oIs|
Jcs. Iormmc,thcappamnccoIa77|sagatbcr|ngoIstormc|oods,botto
]
oocs|t
|saharb|ngcroIApr||sbowcntbatbr|ngMay0owcn.
T
c contmct, 3 m ohcn thc C w|tb ]oncs, was JNT, tbc opponcnts
h
av|ngrcma|ncds||cntthroogboottbcsbonauct|on. Tbccvcntwastbcannoa|
|
acu|ty-an
d-Ir|cndsDp||catcCha||cngc|nwb|cbanacadcm|cwaspa|rcdw|tb
Cmm6 I InjmTmmaMDecmPOy | 9l I
a potential benefactor - the size of whose contribution, human nature ho
|
,,
what i t is, had been found by the Department of Computer Sciences to c
orrc
l
a
t
l
highly to the place of fnish. Jones |c|t tbat a gooJ result in this, hi s spc
cia
l
t
\
contract,was anecessity to hi s returing next year to the prestigious ci rcle o
f |
|
M||||ona|rcs'Sc|ccts. Not|ngtbc|caJo|tbc, be cons|Jcrcd,aswas bi s
W
ORI ,
tbcmost||kc|yJ|v|s|onso|tbcopponcnts'cards.
II Ill
West East West East West East
Spades 4 3 4 3 4 3
Hearts 3 4 3 4 3 4
Diamonds 3 3 4 2 2 4
Clubs 3 3 2 4 4 2
Manyp|aycrstb|nka|ongtbc||ncstbat44JZbandsarctw|ccashcqucntas 43 \
bands, so wou|d d|sm|sstbc |attcrposs|b|||ty. ]oncs tbougbt otbcOisee A 3 . \
sp||tpmduccstwcntycomb|nat|onswbcrcasasa4-Zsp||tproduccsonly 0I|ctn
Casc |, |n wb|cb botb m|nors arc sp||t J-J, prcscntcd tbc most possibl0 car.|
comb|nat|ons, 5 |twasc|car|y tbc max|mom | |kc||bodd|v|s|ono|cards Oh . |
spadc|cad.
Tbccomb|nat|onsasso|atcdw|tb4-Zm|norsp||tscacbrcprcscntcJjuSt 9j | |
oItbcmax|mumnumbcr. Aconstruct|on|nwb|cbtbcmajorsarc4-4in Wc- |
band|sba|Ias||kc|ybccauscaccord|ngtotbcIr|nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcdCho|cc|h.
opcn|ng|cadm|gbtascas||ybavcbccnabcart,abypotbcs|sstrcngtbcncJbv|h.
IacttbattbcdcIcndcrs'bcartswcrcstrongcrtbantbc|rspadcs. However, hc|\
acccpt|ngCasc | as tbc truc s|toat|on, |twou|d bc casycnougbto test for + .
m|norsp||tsos|ngtbccardsbcsawbcIorcb|m.
]oncs'p|anwas totcstoncm|norIor a J-Jsp||tbyg|v|ngtbcopponcot
cbancct otc||b|mwbctbcrtb|swastbccasc. To c|oudtbcs|tuat|oni n the
sp|.|
su|t,bcp|aycdtbc9homdummy,covcrcdw|tbtbct 0 andwonbythe 9^
|owd|amondtowards0AQdrcwtbc0ZhomWcst. Tbc+ hom the du
0
i
|i i
drcwtbcZhomtbcLt.
Hav|ng conhrmcd to b|s sat|sIact|on tbat tbc max|mum
l ikel ilw'
comb|nat|on was now cvcn morc ||kc|y tban at tbc start oIp|ay, he ||
|

|
'
constructadca|| nwb|cbbcm|gbtmakcc|cvcntr|ckswbcnotbcrswcrc0
|'!
on|ytcn. Hcwasrc|uctanttoIo||ow tbchc|dbytak|ngb|stcnsurc
trick
s : l l
tbcn |cadattbccndtowardstbcCK, bop|ngIor tbcAtobcons|dc.
]oncs casbcd tbc d|amonds hrst and tbcn tbc c|ubs, rcacb|ng
a 0
v
-.
pos|t|on w|tb tbc 1 0 about to bc casbcd. Sm|tb bad d|scardcd
th
e
YQ
|nIormb|sbard-to-p|cascpartncroItbcs|tuat|on|ntbatsu|t,|mpcccab|
v
Lt|| | l
att|tudc,andtop-oI-a-scqucncca|| |nonc.
[ 9Z I me,Pom|||aMIojmaoo
Dummy
K 2
< 4 3 2
0
-
erson
Smit
QJ 7
D
6 4
T A S
< J 1 0 9
o -
0
-
-
Iones
8 3
<: K 5
0
1 0
| `. i . rn o| |ctcrson |ctro|com, a potcnt|a||y gcncrous patron, haJ a tough
.

.. .- thc+1 0. TbankstoSm|tb's|nIomat|vcs|gna|,bckncw|omacount
| lugh carJsthatjoncsbc|dtbcVK, sobar|ngtbc< Awasobv|ous|yabaJmovc.
\ nt he otherhand, |Ib|s partncr bc|d tbc%,onb|ock|ngthc topspaJcs wou|J
lLL - entn |or bast to |cad tbroogb tbc VK, w|tbonp|casant conscqucnccs
l |hL Jc|arcr.
Peterson haJnot madcaIortonc|nrccyc|cdcng|nco||byacccpt|ngthc|atc
| l hUmb|e upbr|ng|ngtbatncccss|tatcdwcar|ngb|sbrotbcr'shanJ-mc-Jowns
| I \l hL was notnowaboottosobm|ttobc|ngbc|dtorwodc|cns|vctr|ckswhcn
` . nu!ht gctthrcc. Hconb|okcd tbc4 on tbc+1 0 and Sm|th gavcoutthc
'
l
!
L
|ycontr|bot|nganapo|ogct|c%. joncstbcnp|aycdspaJcs|om thc
' '|`
-
, an apop|cct|c |ctcrson tog|vc b|mtbc |ast tr|ck |n hcarts, c|cvcn
I I L | H
a||anJatopscorc.
The -..
Jay ovcr |oncb at tbc Iaco|ty C|ob, Sm|tb tok anothcr s|p o|
1 ' 1 1 1 1 1 t !atawny soup and commcntcd, 'OnIortonatc tbat, bmcr|tus joncs g|v|ng
` ` |r-on htsw|thb|scndp|ay|nJNT. Notb|ng|coo|ddo'.
` | heard aboot|t,'rcp||cdtbconarsoor|y. ' |t'sap|tytbatw|tho|Jagewhat
` ' '
b
co
mcsw|scr, bot wbat wc do, morcIo||sb. | was hop|ng |or a ncw

|ut
a||wcgotwasasta|ncdg|assw|ndow|nmcmoryo|h|smothcr.'

9
|cmcn,
Gcnt|cmcn, a bcaot|m| day dcsp|tc tbc w|nd anJ thc snow.'

`
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r|tusjoncs mbb|ngb|sbands and mak|ngso as to jo|n thcm. ' My

1 '\'
c |org
ottcn b|snamc, wassop|cascdw|tboorhrst-p|acc hn|sh that

| | I \
,
ot
so-subt|csoggcst|onbc basdonatcd mostgcncoos|y tothcc|ass|ca|

ect|on oI tbc ||bran. Somc oI tbosc cd|t|ons oIV|rg|| anJ Homcr
' -

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og
-carcd. Sornnow| d|dn'ttnIor asnowp|ow. | amqu|tc |ook|ng
1 1
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t
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Cmpm l Iojm t|ooTmo~aMDccOrFOv ' VJ |
Tis page intentionally lef blank.
CHAPTER7
NmNNbUbc
NHccNNLc
Dam Fmu0arbit of hf of our aom,
laving it K N Kmrect 0orer hf.
N|cco|oMach|avc|||| I 49- I JZ7l
| t maycomcasasumr|sctommcrcadcnthatthcopn|ng|cadcomcsundcrtbc
govcmancc oIprobab|||ty. Intcnt aswc arc asdcIcndcnonhnd|ngtbc k||||ng
|cad by |og|c, wc may not cons|dcr thc mattcr as a mndom procss. Wc arc
happy to |cad thc top oI honor scqucncc or our 'Iounh h|gbcst', conhdcnt
cvcnoncw|||dothcsamc.That|snota|waysthcs|tuat|on. M|kcLwrcncc, |n
hisbok Opng L,sugcsuthatabutJ0%oI|cads rcprcscnt a un|vcna|
choicc. Tat|cavcs50%oIdca|sw|thavar|ctyoIcho|ccsthathomtbcouts|dc
ayappcartobpanoIarandomprocss. Inmmcbr|dgcmagat|ncs,tbcrcarc
cntcna|n|ng qu|ncs Iorcxpm on opn|ng |cads |n wh|ch ohcn |t |s rcvca|cd
thattbck||||ng|cad|snotthcmosthcqucntcxpncbo|cc. Manyad|sgmnt|cd
panc||st w||| arguc that a|though h|s |cad was not succcssm|, |t wm tbc most
ptobab|cmcansoIdcIcat|ngthcconmctbascdonwhatwasknownattbct|mc.
|mmdcc|arcr's p|nt oI v|cw, somc su|ts arc morc ||kc|y to bc |cd tban
othcn,bascdonwhathcwcs|ndummyandthc|nIomat|ontmnsm|ttcdby tbc
a

ct|on. Th|s |swhcrc sumr|w cntcn thcp|cturc. IIthc |cad |sasumr|sc, tbc
aNcctcddcc|arcnmusts|hthroughthccv|dcnccw|thcarc|ok|ngIorc|ucs. Tc
i
n|crcnccsdmwhom thc opn|ng |cad arc an |mpnant cons|dcmt|on |ntbc
p|a
nn|ngoIthcp|ay,thcstrongcrthc|nIcrcnccs,thcmorconcmaybcdrawnto
J
pa
nhomrc||ancconthca t ods.
|nIormat|on|cnt|stshavctr|cdtopnona||tcthcmathcmat|csbyadopt|ng
|
a
i||ar
cxprc|ons Ior somc oIthc quant|t|cs that appcar |n tbc|r govcm|ng

H
at|o
ns. 5omchavc|nvcntcdncwwords||kc'sumr|sa|'toovcrcomcprcjud|cc

h
i|catthcsamct|mcattcmpt|ngtout|||tc |t. 5umr|sc|sancmot|on, tbustbc
t

sum
r|sa| adds subjcct|v|ty to anothcm|sc abstmctquant|ty. Intbc JO%

|
s

tuat|o
nswhcm thc |cad |s 'automat|c', thcprobab|||noIag|vcn su|t bc|ng
J
ts
ncar|y I andthcprobab|||t|csoIothcr|cadsarcncg||g|b|c. |Iwcb|dtbrcc
Cmm7 I Injman SmU t OpogLa I 95 I
su|tsanJ enJ up|nnotrump, |t |sh|gh|y | |kc|y that a carJ |rom the |ourtbs
u|t
w|||h|tthctab|ehrst. Thcre |snosurpr|scwhcnthcact|on |svcnmucb
wh
at
oncexpccts. n thcothcrhanJ, ||a part|cu|ar|caJ |sstrangc, |tsoccurrcoce
occas|onsagrcatJca|o|surpr|sc|nanybutthcmost|crvcnto|pcss|m|sts.
Sorpr|sc|samcasorco|tbcJcgrcco|Jcpartorc|romthccxpcctcJ,sosurp
r|
e
|s tbcrc|orc rc|atcJ to tbc assoc|atcJ amount o||n|ormat|on. Matbcmat|ca||v,
tbcysbarctbcsamccqoat|on. Tbc grcatcrtbcsorpr|sc,tbcgrcatcr thcamo
uot
oI|nIomat|ontbcd|sc|osorcrcvca|s. |twoo|Jbcd|mco|t|oraJcc|arcrtoass|g
,
anomcr|ca|probab|||tytoanyg|vcnopcn|ng|caJ,nonctbc|css,Jcc|arcrssbo
u|J
bcawarctbcrc|saconncct|onw|tb|nIormat|onanJsboo|Jtakcpa|nstocxtr
act
|t.
|t|swortbwb||ctodwc||Ioramomcntontbcsorpr|scIactor,as|tw|||ar|-e
aga|nwbcnwccomctod|scosstbcopcn|ngb|d. Yoowoo|dbcsorpr|scJtohoJ
|nad|ct|onanondcrtbc|cttcrQawordtbatd|dnotbavc'o'as|tsscconJ|ctte
r.
|Iyoowcrctocbooscb||ndIo|dcdawordhomtbcQ-scct|on,tbcprobab|||tyth+t
yoorhngcr woo|d rcstoponawordIorwb|cb'q'|sIo||owcdby 'o' |svcnnear|v
l , bot|IyoorhngcrrcstcdoponQatar,anon-dcmocrat|cboto||-r|cbstatconthe
|crs|anGo|I, yoo m|gbtbcgrcat|ysorpr|scd-notbytbcprcscncco|tbcworJ
|ntbcd|ct|onan,botby|tssc|cct|on|narandomprocss. Tbcsorpr|scwou|Jhc
|css |I|nstcado|ad|ct|onaryyoowcrccbos|nghomaga:cttccro|tbc M|JJ|e
bast,arcg|onnotor|oosIorbadspc||crs,wbcrcyoom|gbtcxpccttocncoontcr,|o
aJd|t|ontoQatar,socbp|accnamcsasQa:v|n,Qar:sb|orQom.
|ntbc ncxt Icw pagcs, wc sba|| cxp|orc bow tbc mndamcnta| pr|nc|p|co|
|nIomat|ontbcon,wb|cb||nks|nIomat|ontoprobab|||ty,app||cstotbcopeo|oe
|cad. Aswcbavcsccn,tbatpr|nc|p|c|scxprcsscdbytbccqoat|on
Infrmation . og (Probabi l it)
orana|ys|sw|||bc bascdontbcnombcroIposs|b|c cardcomb|nat|onsa|tcrO
|ow-card |cadaga|nstanotmmpcontract.
Hcrcarctbcbas|cconc|os|ons.
l) Tbc|cssprobab|canopcn|ng|cad,tbcmorc|nIomat|on|tprov|Jcs
an
2) TbcgrcatcrtbcamoontoI|nIomat|on| n tbcopcn|ng|caJ,tbcIcwcr
tbcnombcroIcardcomb|nat|onstbatrcma|ntobccons|dcrcJ.
Tbcscconc|os|onsarcs|mp|ccnoogbandamoonttocommonscnscwbco
!'
tb|nksaboot |t, prov|dcd a|ways tbatoncbas tboogbt aboot |t. Nonctbc|c
s-,|
|
woo|d bc n|cctoprodocc somccv|dcnccIor tbcm w|tbootcxtcns|vcco
mp
u
t
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s|mo|at|on| tbcrcso|tsoIwb|cb maynotconv|ncctbcskcpt|ca|m|ndI , so
wc
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nccdsomcs|mp||h|ngassompt|ons. Tbc majorassompt|onwcmakc|stbat|
"'
| 9 | me, Pmm|||aMIojmaco
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|s a |ow carJ Irom tbc JcIcnJcr's |ongcst su|t. Not a|ways true, of course,

q
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e a|otoItbct|mc,anJIortbcgrcatmajor|tyo|cascswhcre
i t is true, t he
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,
-
q
|tsIo||ow||kcc|ockwork.
Hcrcarctbcbr|Jgcru|cstbatar|scIrom tb|sana|ys|s.
| I
|Itbcopcn|ng|cad|s|ntbcsboncstso|tj o|nt|ybc|J byJcc|arcr's
s|Jc, tbc |nIormat|on contcnt |s rc|at|vc|y |ow, anJ many
J|str|bot|onsoIs|Jcsrcma|nasposs|b|||t|cs,
2 )
|Itbcopcn|ng|cad |s|ntbc|ongcstso|tjo|nt|ybc|dbyJcc|arcr's
s|Jc,tbc|nIormat|oncontcnt|src|at|vc|yb|gb,anJrc|at|vc|yIcw
poss|b|cd|str|bot|onsoIs|dcsrcma|n,
3 )
Tbc J|dcrcncc bctwccn tbc |nIormat|on |nonc so|t rc|at|vc to
tbat |n anotbcr |ncrcascs w|tb tbc d|dcrcncc |n tbc nombcr o|
carJsbc|d |n tbc so|ts.
There |ssomcconms|oncvcnamongstcxpcnp|aycrsastobowprobab|| |ty hts
M W|tb tbcopcn|ng |cad. nc bang-op wc bavc cncoontcrcd |n tbc br|Jgc
| | t
raturc|stbatanopcn|ng|cad|snotarandomcbo|ccbotaconsc|ouscbo|cc.
The conc|os|onappcantobtbattb|scxc|odcs|thomtbcrca|moIprobab|| |ty,
h|ch rcIcrs to random cvcnts, not dctcrm|n|st|c cvcnts. Tb|s con|us|on
ocs|ack totbct|mc oItbcGrcckpb||osopbcrs. |t|smorc oscIo| to tb|nko|
jmbab|| |tymcrc|yasarc0cct|onoIonccrta|ntyanJtocons|Jcr|tsosc|nmak|ng
Jcc|s|onswbcn|nastatcoIpan|a|know|cdgc. |nIormat|onanJprobab|| |tyarc
l mked atbcmat|ca||y.
To |||ostratctbcscconccpts,wcsba||worktbroogbancxamp|cw|tbs|mp|c,
|ut rea| |st|c, assompt|ons. Tc porposc |s to gct p|aycrs tb|nk|ng w|th|n thc
corre
ct IramcworkoImodcm|nIormat|ontbcory. I|rst,bowcvcr,wcsba||J|grcss
lr|c4y to |ook at bow probab|||ty app||cs to s|toat|ons wbcrc a non-ranJom
cho|ce|sbc|ngmadc.
Predicting an Obama Win
W
e arca||
Iam|| |arw|tbtbcop|n|on soncys tbat wcrc so oItcn quotcJ on the
n
e
w
s Jur|ngtbcZ00BOSprcs|dcnt|a|c|cct|on. ManyoItbcpo||sprcJ|ctcJ a
'
c

c|oscraccwbcn|tsccmcd|nto|t|vc|yobv|oostbatMcCa|nbaJnocbanccat
+| |ag
a|nstbama. ncoItbcqocst|onsra|scdattbct|mcwas,'Wbo|sgctt|ng
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|
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|Itbcpo||stcnwcrcask|ngon|yrcg|stcrcdvotcrs,aswasoItcntbccasc,
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'
|ub
|
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canwbombcwasvot|ngIor,tbcanswcrwasptobab|yMcCa|n,anJ||onc

a
rcg|stcrcdDcmorattbcsamcqocst|on,tbcanswcrwasprobab|ybama,
Cmpm/ I Iojmr|ooaMSam|scoo0Opning /o I
97 I
so |nthc cnJsucha po||wasJo|ng||tt|cmorc tban prcJ|ct|ngthcootcomc

thcprcv|ousc|cct|on. Conscqucnt|y|twasJ|sastroosIorMcCa|nnotto|ca
J
|o
thcpo||s. HchaJ|ost cvcnbcIorctbcWa||Strcctco||apsc.
What'sthatgottoJow|tbbr|Jgc'Wbcnac|t|:cncntcrstbcvotcrs'boo
tb,
he
makcsaconsc|ooscho|ccbctwccntwoa|tcmat|vcs. It|snot| osoa||yIama
ttcr
u

0|pp|ngaco|natthc|astmomcntandp|ac|ngtbc'X'accord|ng|y. Monctb
c|
cb
va||d prcd|ct|onscanbcmadc w|thrcgardtotbccvcntua|outcomcovcraw
|J

popu|at|on oIcomm|ttcd votcn. Tbcrc |s prcv|ous know|cdgc conccm|ng

p
ast
tcndcnc|cs |nsomc statcs |TcxasIor McCa|n, Mcw York Iorbama, ctc. I ,
v
t
probab|||t|csarcst|||va||dwbcnwccomctomakcprcd|ct|onss|nccunccrta|
ntv
st|||cx|ststoagrcatcror|csscrdcgrcc. Tbcsamc|stmcoIopcn|ng|caJs.
W
c
knowthat|nccrta|ns|tuat|onssomc|cadsarcmorc||kc|ytbanotbcrs. Wckn
ou
tbc opcn|ng|cadcr |s tn|ngbardtomakc tbc bcst|cadposs|b|c. Wc may
cve
o
prcd|cttbc|cadontbcbas|soItbcb|dd|ng,butwccan'tbcccrta|n. Irobab
|| |tv
st|||p|aysaro|c |ndcc|arcr'sprcd|ct|onsandtbcopcn|ng|cad|sahncp|cccof
cv|dcncctbatnccdstobctakcn|ntoaccount. Dctcrm|n|sm|sarcdbcrr|ng.
The City Council's Secret Ballot
Supposcyouarckccntoprcd|cttbcoutcomcoIacr|t|ca|votcoIyourc|tycoooci|
onacontrovcrs|a||ssuctbatd|v|dcstwomajorhct|ons,tbcKcdsarcaga|nstit,
thc b|ucs arc Ior |t. Tbcm amtb|rtccncounc||on. s|x Kcds, s|x b|ucs, anJone
|ndcpcndcntGrccn. Astbcyan|vcIor tbcc|oscddormcct|ng,youbavcthc
opportun|tytoaskj ustoncoItbccounc||onhowbc|sgo|ngtovotc. It|str|ckv
toprcd|cttbcoutcomcoItb|rtccnvotcshomasamp|coIonc,but|IyouhaJ
makcsucbacbo|cc,wb|cboncwou|dyouask' AstbcGrccnmcmbrrcprcscot
thcsw|ngvotc, |t |sprcttyobv|oustbatyousbou|dcbotoaskbcr. Tcrc
|
-
mucbmorc rc|cvant |nIormat|ontobcbadhomtbccxccpt|ona|casctbanfom
thccommoncasc. Surc, somcKcdsm|ghtvotcYcsandsomc b|ucsm|ghtvote
Mo, bot |nd|v|dua|prcIcrcnccsw|||bcrarcandmaytcndtoba|ancc tbcmsc|vc-
out. SotbcGrccnvotc|stbcbsts|ng|cprcd|ctor.
IIyou canaskon|yonccounc||or, buthavcnocbo|ccabutwbomto4
|.
you cxpcct a Kcd tosay Moand a b|uc tosay Ycs, tbat dos not rcprcsco|
!
god prcd|ctor as |t |s tbc cxpcctcd rcsponsc. 5|m||ar|y, a |owcardsc|cctc
J
'
randomhoma|argcnumbcroI|owcards|snotgo|ngtotc||youmucbaboot|
"

dca|as a wbo|c. Howcvcr, |Iyou bappcntoasktbc |cadcroItbcKcdsan

J
"

saystbatonb|sdaugbtcr'surg|ngbc|scbang|ng b|svotctoYcs,tbat|sa0
4
I`'
dcvc|opmcnt. Somctb|ngtbatocunaga|nstthcods,suchasrccc|v|ngah|c
h
|
\
unusua|opcn|ng|cad,|svcry |nIormat|vc. AnotbcrwayoIputt|ng|t |sth
|s.
'"'
grcatcrtbcsumr|sc,tbcgrcatcrtbc|nIomat|on.
| 9b ) me, PommInjm

cxt,sopposctbcrcarchvccJs,hvc|ocsanJtbrccGrccnsonthccounc| |.
atura||y
oncaga|ncbooscstoqocst|onaGrccn,bottbcGrccnsarc a J|vcrsc
|
t
||ar
anJom|ycboscnGrccn |svot|ngYcs,tbcotbcrtwoGrccnsmayvotc
t
h
,
,
but
tbc oJJsIavor2- 1 Ior Ycs. Tc answcr |sst|||morc s|gn|hcant tbana
Y!s
|roma|oc.
||
wc
cons|Jcr tbc opcn|ng |caJ |n tbc samc manncr, a pass|vc |caJ tbat
ctm
|orm
sto
cxpcctat|onsJocsn'tprov|Jcmocb|nIormat|on.Tbat|stbcpr|nc|pa|
::gu
mcntIorcboos|ngsocba|caJ. Dcc|arcrmaybc|o||cd|ntoassom|ngtbattbc
|
,
|ab|||tyoIancxccpt|ona|cardd|str|bot|on |s|ow. |Ionc |cadsa s|ng|cton,
.
lc
H
arcrmaywc| | rcadtbcs|toat|on|mmcd|atc|y.
A Math
ematical Model for Opening Leads
W
o
sha|| cons|Jcr a s|mp|c modc| Ior a s|mp|c prob|cm |n ordcr to |||ostratc
|wthc|nIormat|on|nanopcn|ng|cadgctstmnsIomcd|nprobab|||tyandv|cc
v
:-a.Tcb|JJ|ngbasgonc l NT-JNTandtbcopcn|ng|cad|sa|owspadc. Not
.l -cqr|c. Tbcnorma||cad|stbcIoonbb|gbcsthomtbc|ongcstandstrongcst
a| t, butbcIorcwcdraw|nIcrcnccs,|ct's|okattbccards|ndommyandIormtbc
.
l-tr|but|onoIs|dcstoscc|I,|ndccd,tbcspadc|cad|swbatwcsboo|dcxpcct.or
.|u
0
my|ssocbtbatwccanca|co|atctbattbcdcIcndcrsbo|dc|gbtspadcs,scvcn
hearts, s|x J|amonds, andhvcc|obs, tbosas|dcsoIB-7--Jand, |ndccd,spadcs
| the|rmostp|cnt|m|so|t. Spadcs wcrcn't ncccssar||y LH's |ongcst so|t, bot
|I | 5 coIort|ngnonctbc|csstohndoorcxpcctat|onsarc rca||:cd andnorma||ty
conhrmcd. Lcons|dcrat|onoItbcdca| a|onc,tbc most| |kc|yd|str|bot|onsoI
the carJs|chandr|gbtwbcnaspadc|s|cdhom |cngtbarcasIo||ows.
II lll lV V
4 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 3 4 - 4 5 - 3
4 - 3 3 - 4 3 - 4 4 - 3 3 - 4
0 3 - 3 0 3 - 3 0 3 - 3 0 2 - 4 0 2 - 4
2 - 3
3 - 2 2 - 3 3 - 2 3 - 2
We|ghu
1 00 1 00 80 75 60
T
he wc|gbts
rc0ccttbcrc|at|vcnombcroIcardcomb|nat|onsIorcacbconJ|t|on.
T
he
"
otcvcnsp||tsarctbcmost||kc|y. Tbcwc|gbtsIorCond|t|ons| anJ|V
-b
crcJoccd,as|ntbosccascsabcartm|gbtbavcbccn|cdascas||yasaspaJc.
.
t
00 s|toat|onappcanathntg|ancc tobc ratbcrmondanc. Howcvcr,wbat
1 1 t
0c |caJ|snotaspadc' tbcbas|soIwbatwaswr|ttcnabovc,onccxpccts
|
v
4
4 |n
a
|css p|cnt|m| so|t to bc morc |nIormat|vc. Tbc Io||ow|ng scct|on
"'
o
tratcsbowtb|stmns|atcs|ntobr|dgc|og|c.
Cmpm/ l IojmaMSmseU 0OpmLa I 99 J
Probability Linked to Information
Dcc|arcr notcs tbc|cadoIa |owcardandca|co|atcs tbat tbcd|v|s|onoIs|Je
s
,
B-7--. Tcgrcatcstcxpcctat|on |s tbat a spadc w|||bc |cJ, bot tbcrc w|||
|
,
t|mcs wbcn tbat docs not ocor. Dcc|arcr w||| a|so bavc Iormcd, consc|o
us
|
v
or onconsc|oos|y, a sct oI pr|or probab|||t|cs Ior |cads |n tbc var|oos s
u|ts.
Lct's assomc on a tcntat|vc bas|s tbc Io||ow|ng sctIortbc sakc oI|||ostrat|o
n

I|4l =0. J0, I|l=0.JJ, I|0l=0. I 0, and I|4l=0.0J.

Wbcn a |ow card |s |cd |ntb|ss|toat|on, |t |s ||kc|y tobc a spadc ba|Ith,
t|mc. A c|ob |cad woo|d bc onosoa|,ocon|ng] ostoncc |n twcntyoccas|o
ns.
A bcart |scxpcctcdoncc |ntbrccocas|ons,andad|amondoncc |ntcn.

,
nombcrscoo|dbctbcsob]cctoIatcstos|ngcompotcrs|mo|at|ons,bot|ct'sass
u
,
tbcscarcc|osc cnoogbIornow. Ncxtwccons|dcrtbcmost| |kc|yd|str|bot|on
assom|ngtbattbc|cadwashomWcst's|ongcstso|t.
Lead <
4 - 4 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5
3 - 4 4 - 3 3 - 4 3 - 4 3 - 4
< 3 - 3 < 3 - 3 < 4 . 2 < 3 - 3 < 2 - 4
3 - 2 3 - 2 4 3 - 2 4 - 1 5 - 0
Weight 1 00 80 60 40 6
As tbc nombcr oI cards ava||ab|c to tbc dcIcndcn dccrcascs hom spaJes t(
c|obs, tbcnombcr oIcomb|nat|ons Ior tbcmost | |kc|y d|str|bot|on dccreasc-
vcra||tbcrcw|||aswc||bcIcwcrcomb|nat|onsava||ab|c|ncacbcatcgon. t
poss|b|||t|csarcrcdoccdastbcnombroIava||ab|ccards|ntbcso|t|cd|srcJ

cc.l
TbcIcwcrtbcposs|b|||t|cs,tbcgrcatcrtbc|nIormat|on,andtbcmorcscvcret
0
c
rcstr|ct|onsontbcb|ddcnband.
Tbc|asttwoco|omnsarctbctwomosthcqocntcascswbcrcac|ob|s|cJ. \|
|owprobab|||ty, tbc|astco|omnw|||bqo|ck|yc||m|natcdwbcnKHIo| |o
so|t. So wc may conc|odc tbat a c|ob |cad on tbc hrst roond cstab||sbcs t
0
c
m|| d|str|bot|onoItbcdcIcndcn'cards. Vcn |mpmss|vc| A spadc |cad |s |
rcstr|ct|vcandmanypss|b|||t|cscx|staparthomtbcmostprobab|c. Tcsaa

|stmcto|csscrdcgrccIorabcart.
Tbcmatbcmat|ca|conncct|onbtwccnprobab|||tyand|nIormat|on|ss|mr|
statcd. tbcamoontoI|nIormat|on |n anopcn|ng|cad |s m|nos tbc |oga|
|t00
`
oItbc probab|||ty oItbat |cad bav|ngbcn cboscn. IItbc |nIormat|on h
o0

'
spcc|hcso|tbc|ng|cd|sdcnotcdby| |so|tl, tbcnos|ng|ogtotbcbasc I0w
c
'
I |4l = 0.J0, I |l= 0.4, 1(0) = I .0,andI|4l = I .J0. Tbos,g|vcnour
l
|
|
''
'
assompt|ons,tbcamoontoI|nIormat|on|na|owc|ob|cadsboo|dbcmorc
!
0
''
Ioort|mcstbc|nIomat|on |na|owspadc |cad. Howcvcr, tbatcst|matc
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c
'

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!

'''
l 1 00 I me, PomaMInjm
n
|sa
bcttcrgucss. Lct'sbavca|ookattbcs|tuat|onaItcraJ|amond|cad,wbcn
I t
is
a-sumcJ d|amonds |s Wcst's |ongcst su|t. Hcrc arc tbc s|x most Ircqucnt
J|-
tt|b
ut|onsw|tbtbc|rrc|at|vcwc|gbts.
I II Ill I v V
3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 4 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 6
f 3 - 4 f 3 - 4 2 - 5 2 - 5 4 - 3 f 3 - 4
4 - 2 5 . 1 5 . 1 5 . 1 5 - 1 5 - 1
3 - 2
2 - 3 2 - 3 3 - 2 1 - 4 3 - 2
Weights
60 24 1 8 1 4 1 2 1 2
T
,otota|nombcroIcomb|nat|onsIora||s|xposs|b|||t|cssbown( I 40l|s|csstban
|
ttbctwomosthcqocnt d|str|bot|ons ahcraspadc |cad. Manycomb|nat|ons
h
a\c
bccn
c||m|natcd and Icw rcma|n. Tc bcst way oI tb|nk|ng abot tb|s
t-
| t|stbatad|amond|cad|smocbmorc|nIomat|vctbanaspadc|cad,bot|css
m|tmat|vc tbanac|ob|cad,roogb|ybyaIactoroIJ. bcaoscprobab|||tyand
m|otat|onarc | |nkcd, tb|srcdoct|on |nposs|b|||t|cssboo|dbcrc0cctcd |ntbc
tat|vcIrcqocnc|csoItbcrcspcct|vc|cads,asob]cctIormtorcrcscarcbrcqo|r|ng
cstcns|vccompotcrs|mo|at|on.
The Random Element
1
,o
cbo|ccoIanopcn|ng|cad|snotrandom, |t|sdctcrm|n|st|c. Tbatapp||cs
a-tbcop0n|ng|cadcrpondcnb|sno|cc,|ok|ngatb|stb|rtccncards. Dc|amr

|ook|ng hom tbc oots|dc. Hc sccs tbc rcso|t oItbc dc||bcrat|ons, bot can
.
o|ygucsswbya part|co|ar|cad wascboscn. Tbcrcmost bavc bccn a rcason,
ao
J
tbcrc|n ||cs tbc |nIomat|on. It |s not cxact know|cdgc bc ga|ns, mcrc|y
m|otat|on sob]cct to onccrta|nty. IItbc |cad bas nogod rcason bcb|nd |t,
1cc|atcr|snotwc|||nIormcd,tbat|swby|t|smorcd|mco|ttop|ayaga|nstabad,

oat|cp|aycrtbanagod,dcpcndab|conc. Tbcmorcprcd|ctab|canopponcnt,
t
he I

W
crb|sposs|b|ccbo|ccs,andbowcvcrsoondap|aycrbcmayb,tbccas|cr
I t w|| |b
ctodrawconc|os|onshomb|sact|onsandpcck|ntob|sbandmcnta||y.
Te randomncss |ntbcopcn|ng|cadcomcs|argc|yhomtbcdca||ngoItbc
ca
r
ds.
Lsu
a||yarat|ona|cbo|ccoIa|cad|s||m|tcdtoatmosttbrccposs|b|||t|cs,
'
| t
bcrc
arc a myr|ad oI card comb|nat|ons Ior a g|vcn d|v|s|on oI s|dcs.
|
'
c|ar
cr,
|ok|nghomtbcoots|dc,dosn'tknowwb|cbcardstbcopcn|ng|cadcr
has
b
ccD J
ca|t, bot bc can makc a sbrcwd |n|t|a|gocss bascd on tbc opcn|ng
|

J
. H
|sJcdoct|onsarcbascdonassompt|onstbathttbcc|rcomstanccs. Tbosc
+
`

p
t|ons arc tbc kcy |ngrcd|cnt. Tbc opcn|ng |cad bas bcgon a prcd|ct|on
''''

dur|ngwb|cbassompt|onsanddcdoct|onssboo|dbctcstcdcont|noa||y
!`
|0c
p
|ayprogrcsscsandmorc|nIormat|on|sobta|ncd.
Cmpm/ I IojmmoaMSmeU t OpmLa ( l 0l I
| bc||cvc br|dgc aotbors bavc bccn rc|octant to cmp|oy baycs' Tcorcm
,
and tbcconccpt oIvacantp|accsdor|ngtbcp|aydownoIaso|t,bccaoscont||
a
p|aycrsbowsoot oIa so|t, |nIormat|oncanb ta|ntcd. Sbow|ng oota||ows n
o
dcccpt|on. Many rc|y tomocbontbca mods3 b|ng tbc on|y rc||ab
|c
|nIomat|on ava||ab|c - everthing else may b a sbam. T|s |s a rath
cr
unprouctive att|todc.
Edith Kemp Was Surprised at Fi rst
We RVOd anything weU untl we ceae R
Waut r mnn of ding it.
William Halitt ( 1 778- 1 830)
Here is 3 outstanding example of inforation extrction rpred by Dcrck
Rimington in his bok L Bre fo r Ex in which the great Amcr|cao
player, Eith Kemp, tured initial surrise into a usfl inference.
M
A 5 2
' J 6
0 Q 9 3
+ A K 1 0 8 6
Wen Ea
K 1 0 9 8
D
7 6
' K 2 ' 1 0 9 8 7 5 4 3
0 K 8 7 5 4 0 1 0
9 7 5 3 2
Kemp
QJ 4 3
' A Q
0 AJ 6 2
QJ 4
Weu Nom on W
1 + 3' 3.
ptt 4. ptt 4N
ptt 5' ptt 6NT
all ptt
Kemp had to gather infortion over the 3< prempt, $ she bid a mini
ma
l

to keep the auction going. P is ofen the C, Blackwo 1NTproppe

"'
( 102 ) Bre, Polr Iojm
_
sh
akyaoct|onanJ 6NT cnJcJ tbc ada|rw|th vcn ||tt|eacb|cvcJ in tbc way
c|
ar|
hcat|on. T
bcopcn|ng|caJwasamostpass|vc+
9
.
|n
K|m|ngton's v|cw, tbc non-|caJ o| a hcart was a b|g somr|sc. Kcmp
Jc

occJ tbatWcst bc|d tbcK, otbcm|scwby not |caJ tbcso|t ' Conc|oJ|ng
(h
os,Kcmpwon|nbandand|cJtbc4, wb|cbwascovcrcd. A|tcrw|nn|ng|n
Jummy, sbchncsscd |nd|amonds, |os|ngtotbc0K. Anotbcrc|obwas|cdby
We
st. Stay|ng w|tb bcror|g|na| cva|oat|on, Jcc|arcrp|accdWcstw|tb tbcIK
_
n
J |cngtb |n spadcs, socasbcd bcr w|nncrs and socccssm||yp|aycd tosqocc:c
h|m
|ntbcmajors.
Look|ng back ovcr tbc ycars, onc m|gbt conjcctorc to wbat cxtcnt tbc
.|c
c|arcr was sorpr|scd by tbc |cad. Tbc Iact tbat sbc p|aycd Ior tbc onosoa|
ending |nd|catcs sbc bc||cvcd Wcst was rc||ab|c and woo|d ccrta|n|y bavc |cd
hi s partncr'sso|t on|csstbcrcwasgodrcasonnotto. Tak|ngtbat|ntoaccoont,
Kep'sp|anwasbascdontbcb|gb|y|nIormat|vcnatorcoItbcopcn|ng|cad.
Si lence Is Gol den
Be vant but not K venturesome.
- jobnLy|y|I JJ4- I 0l
The modcm gamc b bccomc |ncrcas|ng|y onc oIvcntorcsomc b|dd|ng tbat
,ddom gcts tbcpon|sbmcnt |tdcscncs. Tbc |osscs |ncorrcdarcoItcn |nd|rcct
anJ so |css not|ccab|c by tbosc wbosc b|ds cscapc tbc axc. Dcc|arcrs sboo|d
'
ak
into accoont tbcscprccmpt|vcpro||v|t|csoIovcr|yact|vc opponcnts. In
'
hchna|scgmcntoItbcb|gb-scor|ngZ0JWor|d'spcnTcamsCbamp|onsb|p,
I taly's |cadovcrtbcLSAw|nsomoontab|cwbcnjcdMcckstrotb|noncrom
anJBob
Hamman|ntbcotbcrcomb|ncdtoga|n I Z IMIs|na|ostcaoscontbc
1 11lowing s|amband. |HandsrotatcdIorconvcn|cncc. I
Mmkm kwII
K 8 7 4 3
D
6
Q A K 1 0 4
0 K 6 0 A 9 4 2
+ A K Q 6 2 1 0 9 7 s
M Nom Roell Wm
1 +* 1 1 NT pass
2+ pass 2NT pass
3+ pass 4+ pass
6+ all pass
Cmpm/ l IojmaMSameU t OpogLa I l0J I
Mcckstothbcganw|thanart|hc|a|| 4,g|v|ngNortbthcopportun|tytoaJ\cr
t i -,
a hcart su|tcons|st|ngo|
J
-9-8- 5- 3. Aga|nst4, North|cJ|romh|spa|trv
h
c
|
r(
su|t. oJwc||'s surpr|s|ng bo|J|ng o|tbrcc bcart bonors must havc pro
pt,
1
McckstrotbtowonJcrwbatoncartb Nortb wasb|JJ|ngon. Mcckstoth-
.
-
tbcspadcso|tby p|ay|ng |ow towards tbc dommy, Sootb w|nn|ng. TbcO
J tt.
rctomcdtotbc0Kandaspadcwasrodcd.
W|tboot |ntcrIcrcnccadcc|arcr m|gbt bc Iorg|vcnacarc|csss||p,but
ORLt
tbcdcIcndcrs bavc d|sc|oscd somc sbapc, a dcc|arcrsboo|d bc a|crt topo
.
|
j
bad brcaks. Mccksttotb drcwj ost onc roond o|tromps, |c| | |ng tbc
jac
|
,
a
,
j
proccdcdtorodanotbcrspadc |ndommy. Hccoo|dc|a|mattb|spo|nt,

t|
AandtbcKprov|dcdd|scardsIortbc|os|ngspadcs|nb|sband.
Do|ngtb|ngstbc r|gbt waysccmssos|mp|c tbat |t|scasytoovcr|oo
|u
h

cangowrong. Tbc tboogbt occors tbat s|mp|c |s osoa||y bcst. L thc ot
j
e
band,|tmostbcrcmcmbcrcdtbatwbat|nIormat|on|sava||ab|c|scr|t|c
a|to
th.
ana|ys|s. Hcrc|stbcm||dca|.
Nom
4 A 9 5 2
<; J 9 8 5 3
5
8 4 3
Weu East
4 K 8 7 4 3
D
6
<; Q <; A K 1 0 4
K 6 A 9 4 2
4 A K Q 6 2 1 0 9 7 5
W
QJ 1 0
<; 7 6 2
Q J 1 0 8 7 3
J
At tbc otbcr tab|c, tbc b|dd|ng was natora|, and Nonb was dcpr|vcJ
o|
'
|
opporton|tyIorm|t|css|ntcrIcrcncc. Nottoworn,Sootbwasab|ctomakc
'

"'
no|scontbcaoct|onbydoob||ngad|amondcocb|dasbast-Wcstb|dto09
W|tbbastasdcc|arcr,tbc|cadwasanorma|O,wonw|tbtbc0A,an
J
lu. | | |
spadcswcrc startcd atTr|ck 2, Nortb w|nn|ngtbc4K w|tbtbc4A. H
a
n111
|sknowntotb|nkab| tdccpcrtbanmost,b| stmmprctomwaswon
| n
Jc
"""
w|tb tbc 4A andanotbcrspadc was mdcd. Tbc |ta||andcc|arcrd
|J
n(l
t.
1
1 :
tbcb|dd|ng |nto m|| accoont,pcrbaps |o||cd by tbc tromp rctom at
Tr|
c
|

I f M+H hnh/irnn4 Inmnton

.
|
j

o
Jerbop|ngIorarudsc|Jom|caJsatrumpb|msc|I. Carc|css|yJec|arcrtr|cd
r
e
t
u
m toJummyw|tbascconJJ|amonJratbcrtbanw|tbabcartrud. Down
, 111e.
Ooecannotbc|pbut|cc|tbatdcc|arcrd|scountcJtoogrcat|ytbc|nIormat|on
r ha
t had
bccn
prcscntcdtob|mbySoutbhccoIcbargc. AJoob|coId|amonds
( rh
e
tb
rcc-|cvc|nccJssomctb|ngbcb|nd |tanJbcrctbatsomctb|ngbastobc
.
k
n
g
th
.
rbas|tbccomcamattcramongo|Jr|va|stbattbconosoa||snowtbc
, ,r,l i nar
?
The Heart Lead Agai nst
3
NT
' I m, ' msa|d, 'comctoancnt|tc|y oncomconc|m|on
u||c|s|ous ,mydcatwatson,|oudngom|t
a|uays|sR tcaonhom|nsuhc|cntdm. '
Sbcr|ockHo|mcs|nTmAvcntutcoj0Spcck|cdand
A- we said car||cr, dcc|arcr takcs |nIcrcncc atb|sown r|sk. How ohcn |s tbc
;'l'c
n
i ng |caJ aga|nst JNT tbc advcrt|scd Ioortb b|gbcst hom tbc |ongcst and
-t r, ngest
?
Hcrc|sanamos|ngcxamp|chomtbcZ0Sp|ngo|dI|na|,wbcrctbc
a
|

||tcamIaccJo|d r|va|shom|ta|y, |nwb|cbnc|tbcrdcIcndcr|cdhomb|s

J , ,ngest
s
u
i t!
Lura
J 6 5
c Q 1 0 5
< Q 8 5
K 7 4 3
Roell
1 <
2.
2NT
pott
Mkm
1 +
2C*
3NT
|\\| wL|| OpcncJ tbcb|Jd|ngon Laor|a's |ch w|tb a ncbo|oos 1 b|d tbatd|dn't
' ' "
l
'
'
mOctbantwod|amonds. Hcbad,|nIact,opcncdonasbapc|yl 0 HC|
| i|hi s
2NT b|Jwassomcwbatd|scoorag|ng.Tbconb|dso|twasbcarts,soLaor|a
` ' " `
itb
tbc
J,anatt|todc|cad. Dommyp|aycd|owhomA]xx,Vcrsacc
'
'
"
|

KIrom K9Z wbcn tbc was tbc r|gbt cbo|cc,and tbcN|ckc||

M

vcdtr|ompbant. |tappcarstbcJwasnotsomc|cnt|y|nIomat|vcIor
'`' ''
Kodwc|||atcrwasab|cto takcadvantagcoItbcJ-Jbcartps|t|onand
''
|v
0tr|cks.
1

'
amos|ng aspcct oI tbc dca| |s tbat tbc |atc Iao| So|oway, wbo was

IonJ oIsbort-so|t bcart |cads aga|nst

JNT, cbosc tbcZ homtbc
' `''-
ostcns|b|y'Ioortbb|gbcst'. Hcrc|stbcm||dca|w|tbbandsrotatcd.
Cmpm/ l Iojmr|maMSamscoo0Omo|ogL I 1 05 I
fonmnI
1 0
V 8 7 3
0 A K J 9 6
Q 1 0 9 5
Sla Hommon
A 9 3 2
D
J 6 5
V K 9 2 V Q 1 0 5
0 1 0 4 3 0 Q 8 5
+ J 8 6 + K 7 4 3
Nums
K Q 8 7 4
V A J 6 4
0 7 2
+ A 2
$Iowm fonmnI Hommon Nunes
ptt 20 ptt Z
ptt 3+ ptt 3N
al l ptt
Suth'sZvwas an an|hc|a|cnqu|n,and thc 3+ rcb|ddcr|bdNonh's hand
pattcm |nthc m|non. S|owayrcancd that dcc|amr was wc||pmparcdIor a
spadc |cad,$ hcchosc to|cadhom h|s hcan ho|d|ng. Hammanprov|dcdt
h
c
nccdcd%. Dsp|tc thccx|stcnccoIa 7766 s|dcs,Nuncs |mpat|cnt|ymadc a
prcc|p|tatcmovcbyw|nn|ngthcVAand|cad|ngthc+2 towardsdummy,putt|ng
|nthc+I 0 anddmw|ngHamman's+K. TcCI 0 rctumwcovcmdandwonby
5o|oway,whow|thhc|dthcw|nn|ngIornow. Thcrcwasnomsh,$5o|owar
sw|tchcd tothcspadcsu|t. WhcnNuncs wasIorccd tomthc |os|ngd|am
o
o1
hncssc,thcdcIcndcnwcrcab|ctoorcmospadcs,mohcam,ad|amondan

J
c|ub. Thatprod|g|ouspas-dc-dcuxmadc|tad|hcrcnccoIthmc tr|cks, and
th|
dca|prov|dcdthcw|nn|ngmarg|n|nthcmatch.
| l0 | mc.PnIn/m
P
re
l ude to Bayes' Theorem - The J ourney So Far
If you want K tt militr science, don't stop partway. Study and
patice until you reah t inne secet, thereafte to retur R your
original simplicity. If, howeve, you spend your dys pursuing hlfbed
notion without reahin t inne secet, thereb losing t way bk
K your oiginl simplicity, you wiU remain fstatd and demoai'ed,
which umst regettl.
Ta|ra5h|gcsukc,samura| stratcg|st | l J9 l 7JOI
Atthc bcg|nn|ng,wc |nv|tcdthcrcadcronajoumcyoId|scovcnthroogh thc
Forcst oIFrobab|||ty. Nowwc havc rcachcd ac|car|ngwhcrc wc can mst and
ptohtab|y|okbackw|thsomcpr|dconouraccomp||shmcnts. Tbcrc|sjustonc
morch|||toc||mbandwcsha||havcmachcdthc5umm|toIW|dcrV|s|on.
Tcscarcthcmajorconccptswchavcd|scusscd.
1 ) Fasca|'sTr|ang|ccanhc|pU ca|cu|atccardcomb|nat|ons,
ZI Frobab|||t|csammt|osoI cardcomb|nat|ons,
JI Frobab|||ty|scqu|va|cntto|nIomat|on,
4I Apr|or|odscxpmssastatcoImax|mum|gnomncc,
I Lnccna|nn| smduccdthmughan|ncmasc| n|nIomat|on,
I Abr|dgcdca||sahn|tcwor|d|nwh|chcond|t|ons|noncsu|t
ahcctthccond|t|ons|nthcothcrsu|ts,
7I Vacantp|accsamaconvcn|cntwayoIcxpmss|ngsu|t
|ntcrdcpndcncc,
BI W|th|nthcrcstr|ct|onsoIcumntpan|a|know|cdgc,thcmost
cvcnsp||tsamthcmostpmbab|csp||ts.
|otbcprobab|||st|cana|ys|soIdcc|amrp|ay, wchavcrcachcd thc stagc whcrc
Jc|arcrgctstosccthcdummy. ThcamountoIsumr|sconthcopcn|ng|cadhas
nrcg|stcrcdand |nIcmnccsdmwn. Asdcc|amn, wchavcgotourcmot|ons
oJcrco
ntro|bysumu|ngthcAnccstm|Vo|ccs,havcwc|ghcdthc|mp||cat|onsoI
|0ca
uct|on,havc notcdthcs|dcsanddcc|dcdupnthcmost||kc|yd|str|but|ons
civc
Dw
batwcknow. Orp|ansambg|nn|ngtotakcshapc.
S

ncror|atcr,adcc|amrga|nsthc|cadand|s|naps|t|onto|n|t|a||tcp|ay
|o
a s
u|t
oIh|schos|ng. Lsua||yh|scho|cc|sasu|t|nwh|chhccontro|sscvcn,
e
|cb
t,
or
n|ncc. Atth|sp|nt,h|sp|anoIact|on|sIomu|atcd|ndcta||. Thc
|
"
|
9

at|on obta|ncd hom thc dcIcns|vc movcs |s |ncomomtcd |nto a rcv|scd

cti
at|on oI thc most ||kc|y d|str|but|on oI s|dcs. Any |mba|ancc oIvacant
P|4c|amajorhctor|nthcprcd|ct|onoIthccx|st|ngcond|t|ons.
# .
Tbcrcarctwocond|t|onstbatcanapp|ytoaso|taboottobcp|aycd.
l I Tbcrcarcnos|gn|hcantcardstbatnccdtobcw|tbbc|dbya
dcIcndcr,and
ZI Thcrcarcs|gn|hcantcardsthatwou|dbcw|thhc|dbya
dcIcndcrcxccpttow|natr|ckorpromotcatr|ckIorh|spartncr.
Lndcr Cnd|t|on l , wc havc sccn that |n a p|aydown oIa su|t to wh|cb
tb

dcIcndcnIo||owatmndomw|th |ns|gn|hcantcards,thcrc|at|vcprobab
|||t|cs
o|
thc most cvcn sp||ts rcma|n unchangcd. Ascachcard hom adcIcndcr's banJ
appcan,avacantp|acc|sh||cd andovcm|| probab|||t|cschangc. W|thjosttwo
sp||tsmma|n|ngas pss|b|||t|cs, thc morc probab|c casc at thc start |sst||| t
b

morcprobab|catthc cnd, and thc mt|ooIthc mostprobab|c tothc ncXtmot

probab|c |swhat |twasatthcbg|nn|ngoIp|ay. Th|s|swhatwchavc |cameJ
$Iar.
Nowwccomc to Cnd|t|onZ, whcrc adcIcndcr |s rcstr|ctcd |n h|scbo|ce
oIcards$ thatthcscqucnccoIp|ayscannotbccons|dcrcdtobmndom. Te
major prob|cm |nbr|dgc p|ay |s to |oatc m|ss|ng honors that dcIcndcD w|||
guard as bst thcy can. How dos onc cst|matc thc probab|||t|cs ondcr thcc
c|rcumtanccs' Vacant p|accs C bc uscd as a roughgu|dc as thcy rcprcscot
comb|nat|onsandthc|argcrthcnumbroIcomb|nat|ons,thcmorc||kc|yag|vco
honorcard ||cs |nthatm|x. Howcvcr, that |snot cxact, |t|s|nIactposs|b|cto
ca|cu|atcthcprobab|||t|cscxact|yw|thcachcardp|aycd,g|vcnthcassompt|oos
madconthcbas|soIpan|a|know|cdgc.
How |s th|s donc' What Io||owsanswcn th|sv|ta| qucst|on by dcscr|b|oe
thc app||cat|on oIa mndamcnta| |aw oI Frobab|||ty Thcon known as Bayes'
Thcorcm. Th|sapp||cscqua||yundcrCnd|t|on 1 andCnd|t|onZ,sowchav
agcncm|procdurcthatapp||cstoa||p|aysoIthccards. Itun|oksa||thcb|JJco
sccmts,andcncompasscsa||thatwchavc|camcd$ Iarabutcardp|ay.
= .
CHAPTER S
L7Nb7cb Hccm

%
W

`
`
`
`
Tmpobability of an event u0ratio between 0value at which
0R execttion depending m 0happening of 0event ougt R be
computed, and 0value of 0thing exectd upon it happening.
- Tbomasbaycs | l 7OZ- l 7l I
Words, words, words, but wbat wc want arc numbcn, numbcrs, numbcrs. As
tmc can jodgc hom tbc abovc dchn|t|on, Tbomas baycs was a man oImany,
maovworJs tbat sprcad conms|on, pcrbaps a rcsu|toIb|sproIcss|on. bc was a
uoo-conIorm|stprcacbcr. L|kcFasca|bcIorcb|mandHorcnccN|gbt|nga|cahcr,
hc ixcd Irobab|||ty w|tb Kc||g|on, not rca||t|ngtbat m|x|ngtbc twobcnchts
ucithcr.
Howcvcr, |t |s baycs' cquat|on mtbcr tban b|s words tbat bas caught tbc
|.mcvoI |ancr-daystat|st|c|ans. It|svcns|mp|ystatcd,aswcsba||scc. A|thougb
haycs pob||sbcd j ust two an|c|cs dur|ng b|s ||Ict|mc, bc ga|ncd a rcputat|on
c
|va
l
cnoogbto a||ow b|s acccptanccasaIc||owoItbcKoya| 5o|cty |n l 74Z.
Ttcwasapcr|odwbcnb|scontr|but|onswcrcm|sundcntod,cspcc|a||y|ntbc
Eoc| ish-spcak|ng wor|d, and b|s namc Ic|| |nto obscur|ty. Today b|s |n0ucncc
cn:ws as computcn arc |ncrcas|ng|y bc|ng uscd to dcscr|bc tbc prcscnt and
P
|v
|-l thc mturc us|ng vcn |argc databascs. Intbc ZOtb ccntun, moncy was
'
o||
ctcd to bonor baycs' mcmon by rcstor|ng b|s tomb |n bunb||| I|c|ds, tbc
0|ss
ntcrs'bur|a|groundsnotIarhomLndon'sL|vcm| 5trcct 5tat|on. Tb|s
l
|00 inscr|pt|ontbatappcanontbccovcroItbcvau|t.
l o recognition of Thomas Bayes' i mprtant work on probabi l i t thi s vault was
restored i n 1 969 with contributions reeived from statisticians throughout the
world.
`
9
'
|00Ircstorat|ontokp|acc|nZOOtbankstoadonat|on homanAmcr|can
'
u
"
p
+ny
|ocatcd |n Hobkcn Nj, baycs|an Lmc|cnt 5tratcg|c Trad|ng, LLC,
'

T
c |
ntcmat|ona| 5o|cty Ior baycs|an Ana|ys|s takcs rcspons|b|||ty Ior

+i
ntcnanccoItbcs|tc. Nowon to tbccquat|ontbatpromptcdtbcscgcncrous
I Cts.
C|apm8 l App|y|ogayes'Tmm I l09 l
|nkccp|ngw|th|tsor|g|ns|nthcl 7thccntury -thccons|Jcrat|ono|
ag
a

o|J|cc ~thcthcono|probab|| |tyrccc|vcJ|tsmostw|Jc-sprcaJpub||ccxp

o

ur

thrcc ccntur|cs |atcr through anothcr gamc o|chancc, thc popu|ar tc|cv|s|

,
program 'Lct'sMakc a Dca|' hostcJ byMontyHa||. Thcc| rcumstanccsarc
w
| |
dcscr|bcJbyjcdrcyS.oscntha||nb|scntcrta|n|ngand|nstruct|vcbook
|r|tc|
b Ligting: TmCunoN Wol of Probabilities.
Tbc controvcrs|a|d|scuss|on rcvo|vcd around aycs' Tbcorcm. Tc bas
|

|dca |s tbat onc sboo|d makc onc's probab|||ty cst|matcs bascd on wbat
o
n

basobscncd. Tb|scan bcdonc cvcn |Itbcobscrvat|onsarc notcomp|ctc
a
n
ll
tbcrcIorcanyonccrta|nty|snotcnt|rc|yrcso|vcd.|ntbccontcxto|cardp|ay,
th
aycs|anapproacb|stocst|matcprobab|||t|csbascdononc'sobscrvat|onsrath
r
tban rc|y|ng tota||yon tbca pio odds. Tb|s|s tbc bas|sIortbc |r|nc|p|et |
Kcstr|ctcdCbo|ccattbcbr|dgctab|c. bcaosctbcconccpt|sst|||m|sondcrsto
,|
cvcn |ntbc Z I st ccnton, |t |s wortbwb||c togobackto tbcd|scuss|on o|th
Monty Ha|| prob|cm, s|ncc |t scncd to cn| |gbtcn tbc gcncra| pob||c as to
th
csscnt|a|Icatorcs|nvo|vcd.
Monty, Mari lyn and the Theorem of Bayes
Wt is real is reaonable.
- G.W. Hcgc| |I 77O- I BJ I I
Tbc gamc tbat MontyHa||condoctcdworkcd asIo| |ows. tbcstuJ|ostau.
wcrcp|accdtbrccdors-|ct'sca||tbcmDorA,Dr,andDoorC-behi n,l
onc oIwb|cb was b|ddcn a ncw car. A contcstant was |nv|tcd tochooscOR'
oItbcdoors|wc'||sopposcbcp|ckcd DorAI , and |Ibccboscbapp||y,the LI
go::|crwou|dbc b|s pr|:c. bv|oos|y tbcrc |sa I |nJ cbanccoIcboos|ng thc
r|gbtdor,sotbc|n|t|a|oddsongucss|ngr|gbtwcrcZ. I aga|nst.
W|tb rcgard tobr|dgc,tbca pio oddsarc tboscasso|atcdw|ththcJ

|l
bcIorc anyact|on |s takcn bytbcp|aycrs. ncc a p|aycr takcs an act|on, t|v
|n|t|a| odds no |ongcrapp|y and sboo|d bc adjostcd accord|ng|y. |nthc
ganv
sbow,tbcMC,wbokncwwbcrctbccarwas|ocatcd,woo|dnowopcnonc
o|
t| u
tworcma|n|ngdors,sayDorC,rcvca||ngtbcrcwasnocarb|ddcnthcrc.
1
|
v
contcstant was now g|vcn tbc opt|on oIcbang|ng b|s m|nd and sw|tch|nc
h
'
cbo|cctotbc rcma|n|ngc|oscddor. To tbc bo|koItbc aod|cncc, tb|sY* ''
amos|ngs|toat|on|nwb|cbtbcpsycbo|og|ca|aspcctwasparamoont. |ta
pp
c

'
tbattbcoddswcrc JO-JOasto wbctbcroncsboo|dst|cktotbcor|g|na|
ch
1liL'
ornot.
Tbcmn |nsocbagamcwasrcdoccd s|gn|hcant|yby apopo|arauthor
111.
1
acknow|cdgcd 'bra|n', Mar||yn vos Savant, wbo |n bcr maga:|nc co|o
mn,
`
I l l0 ) ne,Pom|||aMIojmaoo
\
|.u
1|y
n,
revea|eJ tbat |twas no contcst rcgarJ|ngsw|tcb|ng to Door |t was

\\
. ,
a
s ||ke|yto succccJ asst|ck|ngw|tbonc'sor|g|na|cbo|cc. Tcrcnccccsc
\
n
ntl
d
n
od |nagrccmcnt,butmanyAmcr|canrcaJcrswcrcoutragcJ. Apparent|y
|

n
M
con
hJcncc |nonc's |n|r|a| act|on, a s|gnoIwcakncssoIw|||,was unJu|y
r.wa
r
d
c
d, a rcsu|tvcrymucbaga|nsttbc Amcr|can sp|r|t oI'staytbccourscno
111arrcr
what'.
Mar||yn's co|umnst|rrcd op controvcrsy, w|tbtbousands oI|cttcrs scnt |n

n
| | n
out
tbatbcr|og|cwascnt|rc|yIa|sc. bvcn on|vcrs|tymatbcmat|c|ans
hi mc
d
tbc
|n|t|a|oJJs rcma|ncd |ntact to tbc cxtcnt tbat tbc tworcma|n|ng
j,,
r
.
wcre cqua||y | |kc|y tob|dc tbc pr|:c. Tbcpr|:c was pot |np|acc bcIorc
i h
c
-tU
d
|o
||gbts wcnt op, so wbat bad pbys|ca||y cbangcd' Tb|s |s tbc samc
. m .:umcnt oncohcnsccs|ntbcbr|dgc||tcratorc. ' Irobab|||t|csdon'tcbangc' |s
, l ctIlHROD
Ia|sc tbcmc. Troccnoogb,|Ibyprobab|||t|csoncmcanson|yinit
|
r
b
a
b| ||t|
eswb|cbdon'ttakc|ntoaccoontwbatoncbas|camcdsobscqocnt|y.
.imra||y,wbcnmak|ngdcc|s|ons,mcv|dcnccsboo|dbc|nc|odcd.
| |
a|waysbc|psto|ayoottbcposs|b|||t|cs|nad|agramandworkhomtbcrc.
\. t|
d
on't bavctobcagcn|os||kcMar||ynvosSavantorbn|toGaro::o,yoojost
ha\'c
|
o be anorJcr|y|nvcst|gatorwbo|aysoottbcopt|onssystcmat|ca||y. Tbcrc
. | lt three equa||y||kc|ypr|orconhgorat|onsassbownbc|ow.
Condi ti on # 1
Condi ti on #2
Condi ti on #3
rA
Car
No Car
No Car
r 8
No Car
Car
No Car
r C
No Car
No Car
Car
Pbilit
1 /3
1 /3
1 /3
| T.
o
r
A Jcnotcs tbc contcstant's |n|t|a| gocss. D n b and C arc p|accd |n
dckw|corJcr.
The Probabilit Argument
The pm
ba
b|||tyoItbccarbc|ngbcb|ndtbccontcstant's|n|t|a|cbo|cc,DorA, |s
| |
\ .
T
cMC cana|wayscbosctoopcnanotbcrdorbcb|ndwb|cbtbcrc|sno
. l r, hl
thcIacttbatbcdossodosnotaddany|nIomat|onw|tbrcgardtotbc
||v0R0
or
abscnccoItbccarbcb|ndD rA, wb|cbrcma|nsat I /Jpmbab|||ty.
H1 1wever, on|yoncoItbcotbcrdorsrcma|nsapss|b|||n. Asprobab|||t|csmost

|
'
I at cvcry stagc, tbc probab|||ty tbat tbc car ||cs bcb|nd tbc rcma|n|ng
'1
11
1r

utnowbcZ/J. TbcoddstbcmIorcnowIavorsw|tcb|nghomDorAto

rc
a|n|ngdorbyZ. I . In tb|s argomcnt, tbc on|y rcstr|ct|onontbcMC's
\
0|0
|
thatbcmostopcnadorw|tbootacarbcb|nd |t,wb|cbdosn'trcstr|ct

\
u|
-
cunJcrCond|t|on =l ,botdossoondcrCond|t|ons=Zand=J.
Cmm8 l App|y|ogayes'Tmmm I l l l I
An Idealized Experiment
|nanswcr to bcrcr|t|cs, vosSavantsoggcstcd tbat tcacbcrs ondcrtakc Mont
v
Ha|| cxpcr|mcnts |n tbc|rc|assrooms to scc wbat bappcns |n pract|cc. So
e
d|d,conhrm|ng|npract|ccwbatcanbcprovcd|ntbcon. Lct'ssccbowMont
v's
b|aswoo|dbcrc0cctcd |na'pcncct'cxpcr|mcntoIJ00tr|a|s, I0IorcacboIthe
cqoa||yprobab|ccond|t|ons.
Number of Choices
Door A Dor B Door C
Condition # 1 Car 50 50
Condition #2 No Car 0 1 00
Condition #3 No Car 1 00
_
Totals 1 50 1 50
Ina|| l0cascsondcrCnd|t|on=Z,DorCmostbcboscn. Ina||tbccascsonJer
Cond|t|on=J,D rbmostbcboscn. LndcrCond|t|on =l , |ct'sassomcba||o|
tbcMCs woo|d cbosc D r band ba|Iwoo|d cbosc D rC. Tbcargumeot
now proccds. |ID r b |s cboscn, tbcrc arc l0 |nc|dcnts ondcr Cond|t|oo
=J, on|y J0ondcrCnd|t|on =l ,sotbcoddsarcZ. l tbattbccontcstantsbou|
J
sw|tcb.S|m||ar|yIortbccbo|ccoID rC.
Wbcntbcrcso|tshomtbcscbo|cb||drcn'sgamcscamc|nw|tbovcmbc|m|oc
sopportIorMar||yn'sasscn|on,tbcd|sscnt|ngproIcssorsbadtoadm|ttbcywere
wrong.SoTbomasbaycsat|ong|astga|ncdpob||cacccptanccbytboscw|tbao
opcnm|nd.
|t |s comIon|ng to notc tbat tbc odds arc Z. l no mattcr wb|cb door | -
cboscn. To assomcnob|as|ntbccbo|ccoIdon|stoassomcastatcoImax|mu
onccrta|nn conccm|ng tbc c|rcomstanccs, bot soppsc stod|o cons|dcrat|oo-
rcqo|rcd tbat, wbcrc pss|b|c, tbc MCprcIcr D r C, tbc dor not c|okw|-c
adjaccnttoD rA,say|ntbcrat|ooIJ.l . Socbab|aswoo|dbrc0cctcd|nd
|dca||:cdtr|a|asIo||ows.
Number of Choices Observed
Condition # 1
Condition #2
Condition #3
Totals
Dor A
Car
No Car
No Car
Dor B Dor C
25 75
0
1 00
1 00
_
1 25 1 75
Ina|| lOcascs ondcrCnd|t|on=Z, D rC most b cboscn. Ina||tbc-
''
ondcrCond|t|on=J, D r bmostbcboscn. LndcrCond|t|on=l , Door
C
l l l Z ) me, Pom|||aMIojm
cboscn morc oItcn tban Door B, bot tbcrc arc st| || 200 cascs wherc |tpays to
sw|tcbdorsc|cct|onand 1 00 wbcrc|tdocsn't,sotbc 2: I oJJsarcprcscrvcJ.
Tbc|r|nc|p|coIKcstr|ctcd Cbo|cc |ncard p|aybas tbc vcnsamcbas|s |n
probab|||tytbcory. AsTcrcnccKccscpo|ntcdoot|ongago,adcIcnJcrIo||ow|ng
su|tsboo|dbcassomcdnottobavcbadacbo|ccratbcrtbantobavccxcrc|scda
cbo|cc |naccrta|nway. Os|ngtbcsamcpr|nc|p|c, tbccontcstantsboo|d bavc
assumcdtbatMontyHa||cboscadorootoIncccss|ty,bccaosctbccar|aybcb|nd
tbcotbcrcbo|cc,tbctmcs|toat|ontwot|mcsootoItbrcc.
Bayes' Theorem Applied to Card Play
It ua lw, that ever event depends m 0same lw.
- jobnStoartM|||| l BO- l B7JI
Let's |ook at tbc morc comp|cx prob|cm prcscntcd by Kccsc, morc comp|cx
becaosc tbc a|tcmat|vcsdon't bavc cqoa|a m probab|||t|cs. Dcc|arcrIaccs
the pmb|cmoIp|ay|ntb|scomb|nat|on.
A 9 7 3
.
K Q 5
Up
u
ntbcp|ayoIthck|ngandqoccn,KHIo||owsw|tba|owcardandtbcntbc
tcn. Tbcprobab|||noIsocccssoItbcsobscqocnthncsscIortbcjackbasr|scnto
l.I , c|a|msKccsc. Lt'ssccbowbcrcacbcdsocbaconc|os|on.
Sopposc F|J-JI andF|4-ZI rcprcscnttbcprobab|||t|csoIpart|co|arJ-Jand
1sp||tsrcspct|vc|yj ostpr|ortoacardb|ngp|aycd|ntbcso|t. Hcrcarctbc
|`
ss|
b|c
sp||tsg|vcnthatKHbasIo||owcdw|tbanbonorontbcsccondroond
w|th
tb|ss|toat|onrcma|n|ng.
A 9
.
5
' '
4lhc
|cad|ndcc|arcr'shand.
Cmm8 l App|y|ogayes'Tmmm I l l J I
Hol di ngs
xx- J l Ox
l Oxx - Jx
Jxx l Ox
Relative Probabi l i t Wei ghts
RHO Plays J RHO Plays 1 0
0. 5 P(3-3)
0.5 P(3-3)
P(4-2)
P(4-2)
Overal l
P(3-3)
P(4-2)
P(4-2)
* At any stge the probabil ities must be normalized
sa as to add to 1 .
TbcappcaranccoIc|tbcrbonorontbcsccondroondhomtbcKHadordsthe
assompt|ontbattbcbonorsarcsp||t|ntbcrat|ooI ||4-ZItoba|IoI |
|-JI .
| s
|snottbcsamc3tbcZ. Irat|o|ntbcMontyHa| | prob|cm,wbcrccacbcond|t|oo
bad tbcsamc |n|t|a|probab|||ty. Kccsc cxprcsscs tbcrcso|tratbcr |oosc|y.
c
actoa|rat|ooI||4-ZI to||J-JI dcpcndsontbc rat|ooIvacantp|accsbcIorc the
dcc|arcrbrcakstbcso|t.
Wbat|ILastdosn'ts|mp|yp|ayrandom|yhomtbcj ack-tcn' |I|tcan be
assomcdtbattbcKHw|||tcndtop|aytbcjacktbrcct|mcs3ohcn3 tbcteo
|nanattcmpttog|vctbcwrong |mprcss|on, tbcrc |sad|st|nct|onbctwccn the
jackandtbctcn. |Ioncobscncstbcp|ayoItbc tcnontbcsccond roonJ, the
cbanccoItbcj ackbc|ng|ntbcsamcband|smocbrcdoccd. TbcIo||ow|ngtable
nowapp||cs.
Holdings
xx- J l Ox
l Oxx- Jx
Jxx l Ox
Relative Probabilit Weights
RHO Plas J RHO Plays 1 0
0. 75 P(3-3) 0. 25 P(3-3)
P(4-2)
P(4-2)
Overal l
P(3-3)
P(42)
P(4-2)
* At any stage the probabi l ities must be normalized
sa as K add to 1 .
Tbcrat|ooIrc|at|vcwc|gbts,wb|cbbcgan3 ||4-ZId|v|dcdby||J-JI , bas
bcc0
|ncrcascdIoorIo|d,tbatva|ocmak|ng |tmocbmorc||kc|ytbcj ack|sontbc
|c|t
IItbcj ackappcars,tbc|ncrcasc|ntbcoddsIortbcJ-Jsp||taga|nsttbc
4-Zs
rli t
w|tbtbctcnontbc|cIt |s|cssdrast|cat4. J, sotbcrc |sgrcatcronccrta|nty
^'
rcso|t and tbcrcarc s|toat|onswbcrcp|ay|ngIortbcdrop |sconcct. Howc
vc
'

tbc ovcra|| odds |nIavor oIhncss|ng |Ionc sccs an bonor drop hom E
as
t ^'
oncbangcd.
. Thi s i s analoous t the situation desribd b Frank Vine i n 'How Ablished the '
Restricted Choice', No~ol#eNo$MrSMo'C/ab, Master Poi nt Press, Zd.
| l l4 J me,Pom|||aMIojmaoo
Probab|||t|cs arc adcctcJ by thc s|tuat|on at thc tab|c, poss|b|y by pr|or
|
oow|c
dgco|anopponcnt'sproc| |v|t|cs. Th|s|ntoJuccsasubjcct|vee|cmcntto
t
h
e
ca|c
u|at|on,wh|ch|swc|comcJas|ta| |owsthcthcorytomoJc|morcc|osc|y

a.
rca|wor|J. LnashamcJ|ymakcusco|whatyouknow,kccp|ng|nm|nJthat
c
oera
||y|t|sbcttcrtoassumcaJc|cnJcr|snotp|ay|ngaJccpgamc,|ortoJoso
. ..aJJcJwc|ght toararcoccorrcncc.
r
|he Bayes Equati on
The power of mthemtics rests on its evaion of a||unnecessar thought.
- EmstMacb| I BJB- I 9I I
Al l thc|ussaboot tbc MontyHa|||rob|cmcoo|dbavcbccnavo|JcJ||J|sscntcrs
haJ acccptcJ tbc powcr oI tbc aycs cqoat|on. Somct|mcs |t |s J|mcu|t to
expressgooJ|Jcasc|car|y|nworJs,cmot|ona|conncct|onsJ|storttbcmcan|ng.
Baves h|msc|Icxpcr|cnccdjostsocba J|mco|ty, wb|cbJc|aycJ thc acccptancc
a. bas|crcsu|t. Matbcmat|cswas|nvcntcJIorjostsucbapurposc. Equat|ons
lee|
o
(
- cxact cxprcss|onsoIcommon scnsc, bot tbcy cancarry os Iar bcyonJ
thc|am|||artang|cd onJcrgrowtb oItr|v|a||ty ont|| wc gct |ost |ntbc comp|cx
c|ouJvk|ngJomoItbcabstract. Wcbavca|rcaJysccnbowconIus|onarosc |n
thcMontyHa||prob|cmandwasrcso|vcdbycons|Jcr|ngtbccv|Jcncc. Hcrcwc
Jlceo|ngtoJcvc|opaycs'|Jca|ntwocasystcps,aItcrwb|cbasaJcmonstrat|on
\V L -ha||cxtcnJtbcapp||cat|ontoacarJp|ays|toat|on.
Supposc tbc Jca|t cards g|vc r|sc to two poss|b|c conJ|t|ons, wb|cb wc
c+n Jenotc asCond|t|on A and Cond|t|on , anJ tbc probab|||t|cs assoc|atcJ
| t
hthcsc twocond|t|ons aJJ to I . |Tb|ssays s|mp|y tbat A anJ covcra||
|
o
| b| ||t|cs. A probab|||tyoII rcprcscntsccna|nty. I Lct's pottb|s|nconcrctc
| vlmS.
Whcn tbc dommy comcs |nto v|cw anJ dcc|arcr, Sootb, sccs b|s s|Jc
j
e
n'tp
osscss tbc+, Cond|t|on Acanbc tbcprcscnccoItbc+Q |nWcst's
h+n
Jwh||cCond|t|onb|nvo|vcsbastbav|ngtbc+. WbcntbccarJsarcJca|t,
| hcpm
bab|||t|csasso|atcdw|tbtbcsccond|t|onscanbcassomcJtobcO. cacb,
l
0 |
m
cJ|atc|yaItcrtbcopcn|ng|cad|srcg|stcrcJ,tbcscnombcrscbangc. |I
n
ccoesup,tbcotbcrgocsdownbytbcsamcamoont. |IWcst|caJstbcV2, say,
t
hi -cau
scsacbangc |Ion|ybccaoscac|obwasn't|cd. Tbcprobab|||tyoIAgocs
.| ..

oanJtbatoIbgocsop,bccaoscattb|spo|ntWcstbastwc|vconknowncarJs
'
^
J
|ast tb|nccn. Kcmcmbcrtbccardscx|stw|tb|na ||m|tcJ, |ntcrJcpcnJcnt

^
\ |roomcntsowbatbappcns|nonc so|tbasrcpcrcoss|onsIoranotbcr. Tbcrc

l
v
t
| ||
manycardstobcp|aycd andtbcprobab|||t|csw|||cbangccont|nuoos|y.
.,
o.
N
e
xt
wc assomc tbat tbc c|ob so|t |s not p|aycd ont||dcc|arcr brcaks thc
c
i t
a
oJ, w
bcn |t |s, tbc dcIcndcn Io| |ow w|tb |ow c|obs. Tbc probab|| |ty oI
Cmm8 l Aaa||ocBa'es' Theoll | 1 1 |
scc|nganyspcc|hcscqucnccoI|owcarJs |stbcsumoItbcprobab|||t|cstbattbe
scqucncc wou|Jar|schomConJ|t|onA or Irom ConJ|t|on . Tbcsc nombe
rs
arcnotbarJtoproJocc.
Probabilit of the sequence arising from Condition A i s proportional to the
Probabilit that A exists multipl ied by the chance of seeing this sequence if A
does in fct exist.
Lct'ssopposcthatthcrc|saO%cbanccthcscqocnccaroschomConJ|t|oo
Aanda4O%chancc|tamschomCond|t|onb. nccthatscqocncc|sobscncJ,
|t |s rcasonab|c toassomc that Lond|t|on A has a O% chancc oIbc|ng tbe
actoa|cond|t|on. S|m||ar|ywcwoo|dcst|matcthatthcrc |sa4O%chancctbat
Cond|t|on bcx|sts. Th|svcns|mp|c |dcaoIproport|ona||ty |smndamcnta| to
probab|||tythcon,andwchavccsscnt|a||yarr|vcdatbaycs'thcorcm.
Th|s|dcacanbccxtcndcdtoanynombcroIcond|t|ons. SopposcwcaJJa
th|rdcond|t|on,C. IIaspcc|hc scqocnccwoo|dar|sc 5O%homA,4O%hom,
and lO% hom C, thcn hav|ngobscncd thc scqocncc, onc woo|d sorm|sc tbat
thcprobab|||tyoIthcor|g|nat|ngcond|t|onwas5O%IorA,4O%Iorb,and 1 0%
homC.
Thc |mportanccoIth|src|at|onsh|p| |cs|n |tsrcc|pm|ty.onccancst|mate
thcprobab|||tyoIcompct|ngcond|t|onson thc bas|s oIanobscnat|onand tbe
knownpropcrt|csoIthosccond|t|ons. nc |snotIorcvcrstockw|ththc |n|t|a|
gocssrcprcscntcdbythc0mmodds. Hav|ngan|vcdatthcbas|sIordctcrm|n|o

probab|||t|csoIvar|ooscond|t|onshomobscnat|onsatthctab|c,oncmaycarrv
th|soncstcpmrthcrbynot|ng that |t|sthcpmport|onsthatarc|mportant,not
thcactoa|nombrsoIcardcomb|nat|ons|nvo|vcd-wh|ch canbhogc.
h
c
rat|ooIthcprobab|||t|csoICond|t|onsAandbondcrccrta|nc|rcomstanccscao
bccxprcsscd as a rat|ooIvacantp|accsatthct|mc oI|n|t|at|onoIp|ay |nthc
c|obso|t.
Monty's Messages
lnfation is 0resolution of unceinty.
- C|aodcShannon | l 9l - l 99BI
It |s worthwh||c to ma|nta|n a ||nk w|ththcconccptsoIInIomat|on Tbcon
.
Thcact|onoIthcMC|nthcMontyHa||sccnar|o|stoscndoncoItwomcssagcs
Mcssagc b mcan|ng 'thc car |s not bch|nd D r b', and Mcssagc C mcan|
nc
'thc car |s not bch|nd D r C'. Thc amoont oI |nIomat|on |n a mcssagc |

dctcm|ncdcxact|ybythcprobab|||tythatthcmcssagcw|||bchoscntodcscr|bc
thc concnt s|toat|on. Thc avcragc amoontoI|nIormat|on transm|ttcd w|||
bc
| l l ) me, PomnaMIojmaoo
r
,atcst|Ithctwomcssagcscanbcchoscncqoa||y. Tcsystcm|sthcnJcscr|bcd
,,
s
p
oss
css|ng max|mom onccrta|nty or max|mom cntropy. Tc onccrta|nty
r
,|atcstothccho|ccoImcssagcs.
Thc aycs approach |s to cons|dcr thc |nIormat|on conta|ncd |n a g|vcn
11
e
s
sa
ge
. IIMcssagc b |s |csshcqocnttban McssagcC, tbcntbcrc |s morc to
J
e
le
ared homthcIormcrtbanhomtbc |attcroncc|tbasbccnrccc|vcd. Thc
)|
p||ca
t|onoI|nIormat|on tbcon tob|dd|ngsystcms at br|dgc |sd|scusscd |na
later cha
ptcr.
B
a
yes' Theorem and Random Discards
It seem to mthat 0 of t pncipl ct K b applied K sucessfl
sciene utht it result are almost alwa:s obiou retospectivel:.
Kussc||Ackoh( l 9l 9- I
Cmccm|ng d|scards, Irank5tcwartnotcd |nh|s l 9BBb k Tm Brie Pl:e's
Compehsive Gm K Defee tbat 'tbc ||tcmturc on tbc subjcct |s rc|at|vc|y
lcao. . . D|scard|ng |s not an casy subjcct to wr|tc abut systcmat|ca||y.' It |s
-aqt|s|ng tbat tb|sncg|cct basnot bcnaddrcsscd |nthc Io||ow|ngdccadcsas
JiscarJ|ng|saIasc|nat|ngaspcctoIdcIcns|vcp|aywbcrccvcncxpcrtpartncrsb|ps
r|av|ogIorawor|d'scbamp|onsh|pcancomcupcmbamss|ng|ysbort.
Hcrcwcarcconccmcdpr|mar||yw|tbtbc |nIomat|oncontcntoId|scards,
whichcanbcoItwok|nds,'bard'|nIomat|ong|v|ngcountor'soh'|nIomat|on
ei vi ogatt|todc. AV|njcd|scardg|vcsbth.'ad|scardhomasu|twcdon'twant
led g|v|ngcoont|nthatsu|t.' Lcounc,adcIcndcrmaynotsccanadvantagcto
r+ssing|nIormat|onaroundtbc tab|c,socvcndcscr|pt|vcd|scards maybc madc
withdcccpt|on |nm|nd. Kcccnt|y Ibc|dxundcrtbcAQx|ndummy. In
the coJgamcoIaJNTcontract,dcc|arcrhadtodcc|dcwbcthcrornottohncssc
|m an cxtraovcrtr|ck ahcrmy panncrbad madca rcvca||ngd|scardoItbcj.
Whcnaskcdtbcs|g|hcanccoItbatcard,Ircp||cdw|thoutIcaroIcontrad|ct|on
th
at |twasanups|dc-downatt|tudcd|scardwh|chdcn|cdthcKbutprom|scd
the IO. Hcr subscqucnt rcmsa| to takc tbc hncssc, dcsp|tc my adm|ss|on, I
coos|J
crtobctbcapcxoImycarccrasadcccpt|vcdcIcndcr.
AsdcIcns|vcs|ga|smust bccons|dcrcd|amc|yonacasc-by-cascbas|s, |t|s
Ji
Hco|ttogcncra||tcandp|acctbcm|namatbcmat|ca|contcxt. Howcvcr,tbcrc
is

Dcs|tuat|onwhcrc baycs' tbcorcmcanbcapp||cd,thats|tuat|onbc|ngwbcn

a J
cIcndcrcanbcassumcdtod|scardrandom|yhomasc|cct|onoI|ns|gn|hcant
c
+tJs|n
twoormorcsu|u. Kandomd|scard|ng|sthcmcamuscdtotransm|ttbc
|
ast|nIormat|on. Tbc hntIcw d|scardsmayconvcy ||tt|c, but,as |nasqocctc
sit
uat|
on,tbcaccumu|atcdchcctoImanycho|ccsgadua||ycomcstobcar|ntbc
'

oIarcstr|ctcdcho|cc.
Cmm8 l Ap|y|mayes'Tmm I l l 7 |
Lct's |ook atbowa pattcm oId|scardscan bc |ntcmrctcd |nsocb
n wn
y

toahccttbcprobab|||t|csoIvar|oossp||ts|ntbcs|dc so|ts. Tbcqocst|on|s

t
h
is:
wbat|stbcs|gn|hcanccoIascqocnccoId|scardswbcntbccxpcctat|on|stbn
t
th
e
d|scards woo|d bccboscnatrandomhom twoso|ts ' Tbc |ongcr tbcscqocn
c
,
tbcmorcs|gn|hcancccanbcp|accd opon |t. Hcrc |samodcstcxamp|cI

j th
porposcsoI|||om|nat|on.
Cons|dcr a d|v|s|on oI s|dcs wbcrc tbc dcIcndcrs bo|d B-5-B-5
anJ
th
e
contmct |sb|ngp|aycd |n notmmp. TbcdcIcndcntakctbchntIoortr|cks
i
n
spadcsbcIorcsw|tcb|ngtohcarts. Wcst|sIoondtobo|dIoorbcarts,sobast
must
hnd thrcc d|scards, wh|cb tom oot to bc tbmc d|amonds. Tc qocst|on
to
|
askcd |s. bowdosthatahcct tbc probab|||t|csoItbc var|ous m|nor-so|t
sp
l
it
Ds|t|mp|ytbatLstho|dsmanymorcd|amondstbancxpcctcd|n|t|a||y'
Her\
arctbcposs|b|csp||tsw|ththc|rrc|at|vcwc|gbts,g|vcntbat tbcmajor-so|t
sp
l i t,
arcknown,w|thWcsthav|nghvcvacantp|accsandLastc|gbt.
Diamonds
Cl ubs
Weights
Probabilit
0 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 6
5 - 0 4 - 1 3 - 2
1 40 280
. o 3% 22%
3 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3
2 - 3 1 - 4 0 - 5
560 350 56
44% 27% 4%
Total l 2B7
baycs' Thcomm takcs chcct wbcn Lst d|scams tbrcc d|amonds at ranJom.
What am thc probab|||t|csnoc|obw|||b choscn g|vcntbcs|xposs|b|c split,
sbownabvc'
Frobab|||tyoIasp||tg|vcnnoc|obhbcnp|aycd,dcnotcdbyI|sp||t | 0
+ I, |src|atcdtoF|no+ l aspcc|hcsp||tImo|t|p||cdbyF|sp||t|ntbchntplace).
To |||ustratcbcrc|showtoca|co|atcF|no+ l aspcc|hcsp||tIIortbccasc

I bat
bo|d|ngs|xd|amondsandtwoc|obs.
Probabil it of no club on round 1 : 6/8
Probabil it of no cl ub on round 2, if no cl ub was playe bfre: 5/
7
Probabilit of no cl ub on round 3, if no club was played bfre:
4/6
Frobab|||tyoInoc|obbc|ngp|aycdontbrccmonds |stbcprodoctoItbcscthtc
nombcn, wh|ch |s 5Il4. Hcrc |s thc m|cvant tab|c oIwc|ghtshom wb|ch thl
cond|t|ona|probab|||ty|sdcr|vcd.
O Split I nitial Wt Discard Wt Oerai i Wt P(split | no +)
0 - 8 1 56 56 0.4%
1 7 40 35 1 400 1 0%
2 - 6 280 20 5600 40%
3 - 5 560 1 0 5600 40%
4 - 4 350 4 1 400 1 0%
5 - 3 56 56 0.4%
Totl 1 41 1 2
[ l lb I m,PIojm
c

o
re ad|scardwas madc, tbcprobab|||tyoIa J-Jsp||t|nd|amondswastw|cc
:
h
at
o|a Z- sp||t. Ahcrtbrccprcsomab|yrandomd|amonds wcrcd|scardcd,
rh
e
tw
o
sp| |tsbadtbcsamcprobab|||ty. TbccbanccsoIa4-4sp||t wcrcgrcat|y
t

Juccd,andarcnowtbc-amcastbatIoranoncvcn l -7sp||t. |ntcrmsoIvacant

|
|
accs,tbc|mba|anccductothcmajorsu|tsp||tswastbrcc. Tbctbrccd|amond
J|-c
ardssc
ncdtoach|cvcaba|ancc|nthccurrcntvacantp|accs,andthcJ-Zand
" 3
c|obsp||tsbccamccqua||yprobab|c. Th|s|sacommonscnscrcsu|t.
-
Wccancarnthcana|ys|sastcpmnhcr. Howarcthccond|t|ona|probab|||t|cs
a||cctcd ||tbcd|scards arc twod|amondsandonc c|ub, oncd|amond and two
,[
s

or
tbrccc|ubs' Hcmarcthcrcsu|tsIora||pss|b|cscqucnccs,whcrcF|stanI
J

o
otcstbc cond|t|ona|probab|||ty g|vcn thatonc knows thc major-su|t sp||ts.
T
e
nota
t|on F|sp||t | J0I dcnotcs thcprobab|||ty oIthc sp||t cx|st|ngg|vcn
rhat
tbrcc d|amondshavcbccnd|scardcd | |gnor|ng thcordcroIthcd|scardsI .
T
h
e pr
obab
|||tyoIth|socun|ng| sshowna|ongthcbttomoIthctab|c.
Split
P(strt) P(split | 3) P(split | 20 1 +) P(split | 1 < 2+) P(split | 3+)
0 - 8
-0 0. 6%
1
. 7 3% 1 4% 3%
2 -
22% 43% 28% 1 0%
3 - 5
44% 36% 47% 44% 25%
4 - 4 27" 7% 20% 39% 55%
S - 3 4% 0. 6% 2% 7% 1 9%
Occurrence 27% 33% 27% 1 3%
b|o
re
ad|scard |smadc, thcmostprobab|csp||t|sJ-5|nd|amonds and Z-J |n
Uubs.T|sd|str|but|onmma|nsoncoIthcmorc ||kc|ycand|datcscxccptwhcn
rhree c|obs arc d|scardcd, 3 unusua| c|rcumstancc w|th so many d|amonds
av
ailable. IIthmcd|amondsarcd|
u
cd, |t |s natum| toassumcancxccssoI
J|
!onJs |nthc Lthand, and thc hgums show that a Z-sp||t |smorc ||kc|y
rh
an J-J
sp||t. IIthcvacantp|accsarch||cdw|thtwod|amondsandoncc|ob,
rh
e
ost
||kc|y comb|nat|on |sthatIor wh|chLstho|dshvc d|amonds. Thc
.
|s
crvat|on
oIthrcc c|ubd|scards makcs thc l -4 sp||t |n c|ubsa|most tw|cc as
|
l
ke|y a
|twasat thcstan. Tcsc arccommon-scnscmsu|ts,and thc numbcrs
merely
back
thcmup.
Ncxt |ct's |ok atthccmcwhcmthcc|ghtm|ss|ngd|amondsconta|nonc
`
|
""
i

cant card, say thcOK, andscvcn |ns|gn|hcant cards. Thcodds at thc

|

i
nn|ng
thatthcOK ||cs|nthcLsthandarc |nthc rat|ooI|nc|us|vcvacant
||
-s,
B. J. Itmayb sumr|s|ngathntto |cam thatthc thrccd|scardsdo not
+|tcr
t.co
dds,wh|chrcma|natB. 5Ior a||Iourcascsshownabvc. Wy |sthat
*I
|
.
M
n t
c
ontyHa||prob|cm,thcMC wma|waysab|ctoopcnadorbch|nd
...
thcrc wmno pr|tc. T|s act|onhad nochccton thc |n|t|a|probab|||ty
'
a
t a
-r|:c
|aybh|ndthcdorchoscnbythccontcstant. D|dhcopcnDorbor
Cmm8 l App|y|ngaycs'Tmm l l l9 |
DoorC' |t |snotspcc|hcJ. bastmaycboosctod|scardany|ns|gn|hcantcar
d,
b
c
|tac|oboraJ|amonJ,w|tbootahcct|ngtbcptobab|||tytbatbcwasJca|ttbcCk
H|sact|on|sncotra||ntbatrcgardas|ongasbcbascomp|ctchccJomoIcbo|ce.
W|cb d|amondsorwb|cbc|obs arc cboscn, and |nwbat ordcr, |s |mmatcr|a|
to tbc argomcnt. Iortbcrmorc, tbc samc app||cs |Itbcd|amondsconta|n two
s|gn|hcantcards, tbc0Kand tbc 0. |t |sst|||B. 5tbatLastbo|dstbc0K.
A di scard changes the current numbr of vacant places, but might not change
the odds of fi nding a particular card in a particular loation.
The Role of Card Play Sequences
Tbc scqucnccsoIp|aysobscncdattbctab|cmaybccons|dcrcd tobc mcssage
tmnsm|tt|ng |nIomat|on to tbc p|aycn. Thc obscncd scqucncc |nc|odcs th
c
cardsp|aycdbybotbdcIcndcn. IItbcmcssagc |sun|quc, ccrta|nty Io||ows.on
c
poss|b|cp|ay,oncposs|b|ccomb|nat|on. Tb|swou|dbtbcs|tuat|onwbcnooe
p|aycrIa||stoIo||owsu|t. IItbcmcssagc|soncoImanypss|b|cmcssagcs,tbat|s,
|Itbcrcarcmanyp|aus|b|c a|tcmat|vcp|ays,tbc|nIormat|oncontcnt|s|owct.
Intbcabvcs|tuat|on,tbcscqucnccoIp|aysbyWcstasbcIo||ows|ntbcheart
su|t|sdctcm|ncd,so|snotsubjccttounccrta|nty. Last,wbobastod|scarJ,has a
mccbo|ccoIrandomscqucnccs|nvo|v|nga|argcnumbroI|ns|gn|hcantcarJs.
Tbcscqocncc|nwb|cbbccboscstod|scard|smorcor|css|ndcpcndcntoIthe
d|str|but|onoIc|ubsandd|amonds. TbcappcamnccoIonc,two,ortbrccc|ub-
c||m|natcssomcposs|b|csp||ts|ntbcd|amondsu|t,butdos5w|tbootcbang|oe
tbc probab|||ty oItbc |oat|on oItbc 0K, s|ncc a g|vcn obscncd scqocnCe is
cqua||yprobab|chomwbatcvcrsp||tsrcma|n.
Thc s|tuat|on |sd|hcrcntwbcn onc cons|dcn a p|aydown |n a so|t where
btbdcIcndcrsarcob||gcdtoIo||owsu|t. NowtbcordcroIp|aysbou|dbctaken
|nto account and tbc cards p|aycd arc spcc|hcd by tbc|r mnk, not just as 'an
|ns|gn|hcant card'. Th|s |s a mndamcnta| d|hcrcncc hom d|scard|ng w
i
th a
hccdomoIcbo|cc |ntwosu|ts.
Lct'sapp|ytb|s|dcatoas|mp|ccxamp|c. 5uppsctbcc|ubsu|tbasnotbeen
p|aycduptotbctbrcc-cardcndps|t|onwbcrcbtbdcIcndcnarcknown
toh
old
tbrccc|ubs. Tbcqucst|on|s,bowdostbcpmbab|||ntbatWcstbo|dstbcQ
cbangcasc|ubsarcp|aycddown'
Nom
+ K J 3
.
W
+ A 1 0 2
l l Z0 ) mc,PmaMIojm
C
ondition A
C
on
dition B
West
Quv
uv
East
wX
Qw
CombInmons
1 0
1 0
[
h
c
m|ss|ng|owcardsarcdcnotcdu , v, w, x , and y. Thcpmbab|||tyoICond|t|on
A
bc|orc c|obs arc p|aycd, ||Al , cqoa|s thc |n|t|a| probab|||ty oI Cond|t|on
p P( B) , and thc nombcroIvacant p|accs |sthrccon cach s|dc. bcaoscany
-cq
ucncc oI|ow cards |s as ||kc|y asanotbcr, thc probab|||ty oIany part|co|ar
-cq
ucncc
bc|ngp|aycdrc|atcstothctota|nombcroIposs|b|cscqocnccsatcacb
-tagcoIthcp|ay. 5o|Ithcrcwcrcs|xp|aos|b|cscqocnccsava||ab|cuptoag|vcn
r
o|nt,thcchanccoIhav|ngobscncdanypart|cu|arscqucnccatthatpo|nt |s I
|
n
n. Lct'sgothrooghthcp|aystcpbystcp.
Undcr Cnd|t|on A on tbc hnt round, Wcst can Io||ow w|tb two cqoa|
ch
o|ccs,cardu orcard v. Lst bmtbrcccqoa| cbo|ccs. Togcthcron thc hrst
n:unJ thcycancbosc thc|rhrst cards |n s|x d|hcrcnt ways. In othcr words,
th
erc arc s|x p|aos|b|c pcmotat|ons, s|x p|aus|b|c scqocnccs. thc sccond
rounJ, Wcst has on|y onc cbo|cc, thc |ow card hcd|dn'tcbosc |n|t|a||y, and
Easthastwocho|ccs. Nowtbcrc|sad|st|nct|onbtwccnWcstandLstdoctoa
rcstt|ct|on|ncho|cc. Lt'spot tb|s |ntoacbanandcons|dcrbothcond|t|ons.
Plausible Pruons
+A Plged fom Suth +K Plged fom Norh
Card sequence 0 v W 0 - W, v W W v W v,'
Condition A 2 6 6 3 6 1 2
Condition B 3 6 1 2 2 6 6
P(A)
60% SO% 6ik 40% SO% 33%
westand LastbavcIo||owcdw|tbspcc|hc|owcards,sothcscqocncc|sdchncd
esact|y. It can b sccn tbat tbc probab|||ty oICnd|t|on A |s 7% ahcr thc
cqucncc u Io||owcd by w Io||owcd by V. Thc rcso|ts oIth|stab|csomc woo|d
fnd J
|storb|ng. Tbcy m|gbt argc that Last and Wcstw||| a|ways Io||ow w|th
|ow
carJsoptotbccr|t|ca|momcnt,sothcIactthatthcydososhoo|dhavcno
|
car|ng
on tbc probab|||t|cs. Tbat woo|d bc tbc casc oIrandom d|scards, bot
l
rc
WcstandLastarcundcrmstr|ct|on.
A|thoogb|t'sobv|oostbat|n|t|a||ythc+ coo|dbcp|accdcqoa||yw|thLast
'
'
V
cst,thcpmbab|||t|csbascdontbcp|ayd|hcrdcpcnd|ngonarandomcho|cc
, ,
f

b
cthcrp|ay|sbgnhomNonborhom5ootb. Thcd|hcrcncc|sobv|oosand
J
9
0to
thcmstr|ct|onoIcbo|cctbatthc+ cannotbcp|aycdp|aos|b|yw|thoot
|
'
ss.
T
h|s|sak|ntotbcrcstr|ct|ontbatMontyHa||cannotopcnadorw|tha
ri:c
bch|nd |t. W|tboot socbarcstr|ct|on,thctwoopt|ons woo|d prodoccthc
"
c
no
mbcroIscqocnccs. Thcrcstr|ct|onar|scsnothomthcdca||ngprocss,
ut
II
o
m
thcm|csoItbcgamc,wb|cbahccthowtbccardsarcp|aycd.
Cmm8 l App|y|maycs'Tmmm ( l Zl |
There |sanotheraspecto|th|scbartwortbnot|ng. the probab|||t|cson
t
j

|e|t arc the comp|emcntso|thc probab|| |t|csontbcr|gbt. Attbcbr|Jgc

tab|

onc can choosc onc start ortbc otbcr, not botb. vcra||, g|vcn tbat ba||
t
j

t|mcthc4A |sp|aycJ hrst anJ ba|Itbc t|mc tbc 4K, tbcovcra||probab

|| |t
v
,
succcss|sO%atcacb stagcoItbcp|ay.Attbctab|c,oncmustcboosc,|orbc
tt(
orworsc, butbav|ngcboscn,tbcoJJsw|||vanIavorab|yIoryourcbo|ce.
(
n

botb JcIcnJcrs Io||ow w|tb |owcards, ba|ancc |sacb|cvcJ anJ tbc conJ|t|o
n
+|
oJJsarcbacktoO-O.
|IyouarcaIanoIsc|cncchct|on,youmay| |kctotb|nkoItbcr|gbt-banJ
i d.
oItbccbartandtbc|cIt-band s|dc asrcprcscnt|ngtwocqua||yprobab|c
paral
l d
un|vcrscs. You act w|tb|ntbc|cIton|vcrscandyourJoppc|gangcrJocs
ut
th.
oppos|tcon tbc r|gbt. So |Iyoucboosc to |cad tbc4Ahrst,bc w|||
cboos
,
|t
|caJtbc4K. WbcrcyouIa||, bcsuccccds.
Tbcrc |sarc|atcdcasctbatcanbchttcd |ntotbcmatbcmat|ca|Irac
u
or|
Supposctbcb|JJcnbanJ,Sootb,conta|ns4AI O9,andtbcp|aybcg|nsw|thth.
4JhomtbcJummy,nottbc4K. Tbcbastp|aycrmaysccarcasontocover wuh
tbc 4, aItcra| | , bast cannot scc tbat Soutb bo|ds tbc h||crs. AsZ| as
+| J, ' | |
tbcyJon'tcovcr,tbcyJon'tbavc| t. ' Hcrconcm|gbtrcass|gnprobab|||t|esund.|
ConJ|t|on asIo||ows.cardw orcardx, pmbab|| |tyO.Z, card4,O. . Souh.a
carJw appcars, ||AI |sIavorcdbytbcodds4. Jand|tmakcsscnsctooverta|
w|tbtbc4AanJruntbc4I Obacktbcotbcrway.
The Efect of a Parti al Playdown
Sc|cnt|jcptogcss|s 0d|scovc~oja motcan
motccomptc|cm|vcs|mp||c|ty.
- GcorgcLcmatrc| I B94- I 9I
Tbc app||cat|on oIaycs' Tbcorcm to a part|a| p|aydown |n a su|t rc
qu|r
' '
ccrta|namountoImatbcmat|ca|man|po|at|on,but| ntbccnd,tbcrcsu|
t| s
qtnt
s|mp|ystatcd.
When the defnders hold only insignificant cards, their fllowing in a suit acts
to el i mi nate the extreme splits while the relative probabil ities of the remai ni ng
splits are unchanged from thei r original values.
|nan|nIormat|vcscnsc,tbcon|ypomosctop|ay|ngoota|ongso|t|sto
J|sc

wbctbcrtbcso|t|suncvcn|ysp||t. Tat |soscm| |ncva|oat|ngvacant
p|ac

| sunncccssan Ior dctcrm|n|ngwb|cboItbc rcma|n|ng sp||ts | smost
||
kc
|
'
oncknowstbatIromtbcbcg|nn|ng. Hcrc|sancxamp|coIbowtb|sworks
|
^

B--4-Bd|str|but|onoIs|dcs. Assomcspadcsarcknowntosp||t-Z,an
J
h
c.i|'
{
c
qucst|on|s- arcc|ubsmorc||kc|ytosp| |tJ. S or44? Hcrcarcthchvc
1
1-i b|||t|cs
A
C

6 - 2
6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2
2 - 4 2 - 4 2 - 4 2 - 4 2 - 4
9
4 - 0 0 3 - 1 0 2 - 2 0 1 - 3 0 0 - 4
1 - 7 2 - 6 + 3 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3
We| g
h|s
1
1 4 42 35 7
Probabi l ities 1 % 1 4% 42% 35% 7%
Th
e wc|
ghts
arc dcr|vcdhomtbc nombcrsoIcomb|nat|ons |n tbc m|nors, no
,. i rJ-h
aV|n
gyctbccnp|aycd|ntboscso|ts. |n|t|a||y,tbcprobab|||tyoICond|t|on

|
((
I , |s
grcatcrtbantbatIorCond|t|onD,F| DI, |ntbcrat|oto5. Sopposc
(
that
a roond oId|amonds |s p|aycd, w|tb btb dcIcndcrs Io||ow|ng. Tc
ottct o|th|s |stoc||m|natc Cond|t|ons Aand bwb||c|cav|ngtbcpropon|ons
. |

a.wc|ghts oIb, C and Doncbangcd. So F|CI and F|DI arc ahcctcd bot
| |crrat|orcma|nsoncbangcd. bIorcd|amondsarcp|aycd,wc|gbtsprodocctbc
r. bab| ||t|csshoW abovc, andaItcronc roond, tbcsc bccomc O%, l 5%,4%,
I 5 , and O% rcspcct|vc|y. Lct's|okattbcanangcmcntoIwc|gbtswbcrctbc

'
.-we|ghtsarcnotcbangcddoctop|ay|ntbcso|t.
O o

6ds
..
2 - 2
..
We| gh|s 4 6 4
Cl ubs
2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4
Yeights
28 56 70
!|o|Wei ghts
1 1 2 336 280 Sum 728
Probabi l i t
1 5% 46% 38%
\Vhcn
t
he su|tp|aycdconta|nss|gn|hcantcardstbatwoo|dnotbcp|aycdnorma||y,

'
.ajj
caIancc oIa s|gn|hcant card ahords tbc assompt|on tbat tbc card was

'
1uIncccss|n. Tbcrc |sastrongpss|b|||ty tbcn tbat tbc so|t |ssp||tt|ng
' l llcvcnly.
|Ibotb dcIcndcrs Io||ow w|tb |ns|gn|hcant cards, tbc |nd|cat|on |s

'

|
0csu|t|ssp||tt|ngmorccvcn|ytbanwoo|dbcxpcctcd|Ia||cardswcrcoI
'"Ju
al S|Pn|hcancce Aspcc|a|c|rcomstanccocorswbcntbcp|aos|b|cp|aysrcacb
'"Ju
al i ty
Iorthcrcma|n|ngcomb|nat|ons.
Whe
n the defnders hol d significant cards i n a suit, thei r fl lowing with
i
"
si g
ni ficant cards increases the chance of an even split in the suit. With
"

ho
nor mi ssing, if the numbers of plausible plays reach equalit fr the
r
e
m
a
i
ni ng
combi nations, the relative probabil ities are the same as would be
cal
cul
a
ted from the current vacant places.
Tcs|mp|cstcasctocons|dcr|stbatwbcrcIoorcardstbat|nc|odctbcqoccn
,
m|ss|ng,JcnotcdbyQ,u, w, andx. AItcrtbcdcIcndcrsIo||owtotbchrstroun|
w|tb|owcards,u andx, tbcIo||ow|ngcomb|nat|onsrcma|n.
4 - 0
u
2 - 2
1.
0 - 4
none Qw- 0 Q - w 0 - Qw none
w- Q
Plausible plays 2 2 2
Tbcrc arc two cards ootstand|ng, so tbc appropr|atc Ica| anangcmcnt i
I -Z- I .
| ntbcabovccxamp|c,tbcnombcrsoIcomb|nat|ons|nd|amondsandc|u|
arcnowg|vcnbytb|s anangcmcntoIwc|gbtsdcr|vcdhomthcIasca|Tr|ang|c.
Diamonds
u
2 - 2
1.
Weights 2
Cl ubs 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4
+ Weights 28 56 70
Total Weights 28 1 1 2 70 Sum 2 1 0
Probabil it 1 3% 53% 33%
|ItbcnombcroIvacantp|accsIortbcm|nonwcrcsp||thvconthc|chandscvco
ontbcr|gbt,tbcoddsoItbcqoccnonthc r|gbt woo|d b 7. JbIorcad|a

oJ
orc|obwasp|aycd. IIoncroond oId|amonds |sp|aycd w|thoot |nc|dcnt,th
corrcntvacantp|accsarcrcdoccd toIooronthc|chands|xontbcr|gbt,aoJ
tbcoddsoItbcqoccnontbcr|gbtarc.4. Tb|scanbvcr|hcdbycoont|ngth
wc|gbts.
s
Queen on the lef 28 + 56
(21 4)
Quen on the right 56 + 70
(2 1 6)
|Id|amonds arc cont|nocd and tbc LHIo||ows w|th tbc |ast rcma|n|ng
|c
carJ,cardw, on|y tbc qoccnrcma|nsat|argc and onc hrcachcd tbc s|toa
t|.a
rcIcncdto|nKc|scy's Ko|c|wbcna|| tbc |ns|gn|hcantcams|naso|tba
vc
''
'
p|aycd, tbcsc can bc addcd to tbc know cards |n thc ca|co|at|on oIY4-''
'
||accsI .
Tbcrcarcj osttwocond|t|omrcma|n|ng,anor|g|na|Z- Zsp||toraJ- I
sp| i |
andtbcnombcroIp|aos|b|c p|ays rcma|ns attwoIor cach comb|nat|on.
`
c|obwc|gbtsarc J and ZB rcspcct|vc|y,5 thcodsarcZ. l |nIavoroItbc4
0
'''
bc|ngontbcr|gbt. TbcnombcroIconcntvacantp|accs|sthrccontbc
|cIt
''`
s|x on tbc r|gbt, so tbc rat|o oIconcnt vacant p|accs g|vcs thcconcct
od
J
`
prcd|ctcdbyKc|scy'sKo|c.

app
|y|ng aycs Tbcorcm to a scqocncc oI p|ays, onc arr|vcs at a

oc
ra||:at|onoIKc|scy'sKo|ctbatbo|dswbcntbcrcarcmorctbantwoposs|b|c
r . .
,mJ|t|onsrcmarmng.
When the playdown in a suit reaches a pint where the plausible ploys
are
equal fr all remai ni ng combi nations, the relative probabi l ities of those
remai ni ng conditions ore in their original proportions.
Plausible Plays with the Queen-Jack Missing
j
c
|ntcrdcpcndcnccoIthc sp||ts |n d|hcrcntso|ts |s aconccpt tbatsboo|d bc

phas|:cd,cspcc|a||y3 |t |sohcn|gnorcd|nd|scoss|onsoItbcbcstp|ay|naso|t
t:kcn|n|so|at|on. Hcrc'syctanothcrcxamp|coIbowtbcp|ay|noncso|ty|c|ds
m|
o
rmat|onconccm|ngtbcsp||t|nanotbcrandbowvacantp|accsarc|nvo|vcd.
| |thc su|tbc|ngp|aycddowconta|mbtbs|g|hcantand |ns|gn|hcantcards,
then p|aus|b|c p|ays most a|so b takcn |nto accoont. aycs' Tbcorcm |s tbc
general approacbtbatapp||cstoa||s|toat|ons.
Supposcscvcnd|amondsandhvcc|obsarcootstand|ng,andtbcscso|tsbavc
vet tobe p|aycd. IIthcvacantp|accsarccvcnats|xands|x,bcrcarctbcposs|b|c
-rlits and tbc|rnombroIcomb|nat|ons.
0 omoodt 7 - 0 6 - 1 5 - 2 4 - 3 3 - 4 2 - 5 1 - 6 0 - 7
Cl ubs
0 - 5 1 - 4 2 - 3 3 - 2 4 - 1 5 - 0
O Wei ghts
1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1
4 Weights
0 5 1 0 1 0 5 1 0
!o|olWeights 0 7 1 05 350 350 1 05 7 0 Sum " 924
l i t
he J|a
mondsarcIoondsobscqocnt|ytosp||tcvcn|y,tbcntbcc|obsmosta|so
|o
5O, but|Itbcd|amondssp||toncvcn|y,somosttbcc|obs|nsocbawayasto
co
mp
cnsatc Ior tbc |mba|ancc. As tbc d|amondsarcp|aycd down w|tb botb
,J c
fenders
Io||ow|ngw|th |owcards, tbccvcnsp||tsbccomcmorcprobab|c,cvcn
m0lu
SO
|I
tbcrcarcs|gn|hcantcards|ork|ngaboottbatbavcn'tappcarcd.
Next cons|dcrtbcs|toat|onwbcrctbcvacantp|accsarcscvcnontbcr|gbt

-
!
f
v
e ontbc|ch. Tbcpss|b|||t|csarcg|vcnbc|ow.
0 o
oodt
7 - 0 6 - 1 5 - 2 4 - 3 3 - 4 2 - 5 1 - 6 0 - 7
Cl u
b
s
0 - 5
1 - 4 2 - 3 3 - 2 4 - 1 5 - 0
"
W
ei g
hts
7 2 1 35 35 2 1 7 1
4
W
ei g
hts
5 1 0 1 0 5 0 0
!|
ol
W
eig
hts
35 2 1 0 350 1 75 2 1 0 0 Sum 792
Tc tota|wc|ghtsarcrcJuccJhom 924 to 792, thcrat|obc|ng 7. ascxpe
ct

J
Irom a compar|son oI thc numbcr oIcomb|nat|ons ava||ab|c hom a 6-6
s
p
[
i t
anJa 7- 5 sp||t|nthcm|norstakcntogctbcrbcIorca p|ay |smaJc|nc|tb
cr
su| t .
Tb|s |s tbc probab|||ty oItbcJca|. AItcr tbrcc rounJs oIJ|amonJsarc
p
[
a
\

J
w|tboot|nc|Jcnt,tbcon|yposs|b|||t|csrcma|n|ngarcc|tbcra 4-J ora J-4
sp|| t.
Tbcd|amonJwc|gbtsrcma|ncqua|. Conscqucnt|y, wbcntbcvacant
p|accs
a
r
c
|nba|ancc,tbcc|obscansp||tc|tbcrZ-JorJ-Zw|tbcqoa|probab|||ty. However
wbcntbccxc|os|vc vacant p|accs arc scvcn andhvc,tbcc|obscanno
tsp
||t
-
andarcmorc||kc|ytosp||tJ-Ztban4- I |ntbcrat|ooIZ. I . Tb|s|s|nagrcc
cn
t
w|tbtbcrat|ooItbccorrcnt vacant p|accs rcdoccdhom7Jto4-Z.
A m|xtorc oI s|gn|hcant and |ns|gn|hcant cards ahccts tbc number : t |
p|aos|b|cp|ays,wb|cbarctbcnno|ongcrcqoa|acrosstbcboard. Astbcp|ay
Jou,
progrcsscsandbotbJcIcndcncont|noctoIo||oww|tb|owcards,tbctcnJcncv| -
towardsancvcngrcatcrprobab|||tyoIancvcnsp||t|ntbcd|amonds. |Ianhonor
appcars,tbca|armbc||sgooh,tbc|nd|cat|onbc|ngIoranoncvcnsp||tbccaue
rcstr|ctcdcbo|cchbccnIorccdoponadcIcndcr.
Supposcnowtbattbcm|ss|ngd|amondsconta|ntbcqoccnanJtbcjackAn
cxactca|co|at|on|scasywbcntbcLHbasIo||owcdw|tbtbcqoccnontbcthi
r
J
roondoId|amonds. Tbcrcarcj osttwo|n|t|a|cond|t|onsrcma|n|ng.
Plausible Plays
Quwopposite xz
24
Quw opposite Jxz
1 2
Aga|nwc bavc a rcstr|ctcd cbo|cc s|toat|on, csscnt|a||ymak|ngoor two inti al
cond|t|ons cqoa||y | |kc|y. Tbc conscqocncc oItb|s |s tbat wbcn tbc vacaot
p|accswcrc-|n|t|a||y,tbcwc|gbtsarcZ. I |nIavoroIaJ-Zsp||t|nc|ubs. |the
vacantp|accswcrc7-J |n|t|a||y,tbcrc|snowancqoa|cbancctbattbcc|ubsdL
sp||t J-Zor4- I .
| l Z I me,Pom|aMIojmmo
CHAPTER9
NNcNcc, ccc
N cN
By dubting we comR enquir,
an b enquir we comR tt.
- IctcrAbc|ard| I 079- I I 4ZI

%
W T

`
|n th|sscct|onwc arc go|ng to|okatcascswbcrc tbcdcIcndcrsbo|dancvcn
acberoIcards|nc|od|ngaqoccn|IoorcardsIoraj ack |s|x-scvcncardsI. Wc
-hall scc tbat tbc ' N|nc-Ncvcr's|oganapp||cson|ywbcn tbc vacantp|accsarc
unt:worable totbchncssc.
8 6
D
J 1 0 4
A 1 0 8 7 3 K J 9 5
A K 3 Q 7 6
+ K J 4 + A 7 2
Weat Nom oat Wm
1 1 .
dbl pass 1 NT pass
3 pass 4 all pass
|-t
be
g|nsw|tbawcakandncbo|oosI0opcn|ngb|d,wb|cba||owsSootbtocntcr
'

auct|oncbcap|y. Nortb |cadstbcAandcont|nocsspadcs. tbc tb|rd

o
f spadcs,Wcstmhs w|tb tbcVl O andNortbIo||owsw|tb|prcsomab|yI

i -
|astspadc. Dcc|arcrcasbcstbcvAand|cadstowardstbcVKJ tcnacc|ntbc

NortbIo||ow|ng tw|cc andSootbonccsoIar. Wbat |stbcpmbab|| |ty

' '
'
heart
hncsscw|||soccccd'

|
|rst
|ct's |ok w|tb|ntbc bcart so|t toscc wbat comb|nat|ons coo|d bavc

J
ca|tandbowtbcym|gbtbp|aycd. Wcw|||dcnotc tbcm|ss|ngbcartsas
Cmpm9 l N|m-Nev, E|dt-Et,aMcm I lZ7 I
Q, M M HnJx. SupposcLHhas|o||oweJtothehrsttwohcartsw|thcarJsu anJ
M HnJKHw|thcarJx
.
Hercarctheor|g|na|poss|b|||t|csanJ what rcma|ns
Spl i ts
u
2
-
2
I nitial Guw- x uw- Qx
Pl ausibl e Plays 2 2
Remnants Q - 0 0 - Q
To gct hom tbc or|g|na| cond|t|on rcso|t|ng hom thc dca| to thc current
cond|t|onw|tbj ostthcqoccnm|ss|ng,thcnombcroIcardsbc|dbythcdc|cnJers
was rcduccd hom 4 to 1 . Ior cacb sp||t rcma|n|ng, tbcrc wcrc two p|a
us|b|e
patbsIromthc|n|t|a|statc totbcconcntstatc,namc|yutbcnxthcnu( u-x-w)
oruthcnxthcnu | u-x-uI . Tbc probab|||tyoIcacbpatbbc|ngchoscnby the
dcIcnJcrs|sthc samcIortbctwosp||ts,sotbcrc|snod|st|nct|on|nthat rcgarJ.
Thcon|yd|st|nct|onrcma|n|ng|stbc|n|t|a|nombcroIcxc|os|vcvacantp|aces.
Norma||ythc3- 1 sp| |tw|||bcoI|csscrprobab|||ty,botnot|Itbcrc|san|mba|ance
Iavor|ngthc|cIt-bands|dc,|nwb|cb casc|t|smorcprobab|c tbatthcqoccn |ie.
ontbc |c|t,jostas|twasbcIorc acard |ntbcso|twasp|aycd. AsKc|scy's Ku|e
statcs,thcvacantp|accrat|osdctcrm|ncwbctbcrornottop|ayIorthcdmD.
Cons|Jcrtbcmost||kc|yd|v|s|onsoIs|dcstbat coo|d bavcbccndca|tunJer
thcstatcd c|rcomstanccs. Tbc corrcntvacantp|accsarcsbownon tbcr|ghtHh
carJsarcp|aycd.
Defenders N S N 5 N S Vacant Places as
Spades 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 hearts are played
Hearts 3 . 1 2 - 2 1 3 1 0 8
Mi nors 7 - 7 8 - 6 9 - 5 9 7
Mi nors Wei ghts 24 2 1 1 4 8
Thc |mba|ancc |n tbc vacantp|accsdoc to tbc oncvcnsp||t|nspadcs rcquirc-
tbatthccvcnsp||t|ntbcm|norsbccomcsmatcbcdw|tbtbcJ- I sp||t|nhcartsro
a||owIortb|rtccncardstobcdca|ttocacbdcIcndcr.
Tbcwc|gbtsIortbcbcartso|taItcroncroondarcsbownbc|ow. ThcsD
|i
r
arcd|v|dcd |ntosobgroops-qoccnontbc|chorqoccnontbcr|gbt.
$ummupa II Ill IV
Generic Guw- x Qu - w uw- Qx u - Qw
Number 3 3 3 3
Paths 2 2 2 2
Remnants
< Wei ghts
Mi nors 24 2 1 2 1 1 4
Probabi l ities 30% 26% 26% 1 8%
Remnants Qw- 0 Q - w w- Q 0 - Qw
T M M+
! - bh/inn |o(ma
aoo
AIt
cr Iu| | rounJo|
bcarts,tbcp|aus|b|cpatbs|roms|xtccncomb|nat|onsto|our
arctbcsamc|orcacbsubgroup,sotbatbasnobcar|ngontbcrc|at|vcprobab|| |t|cs.
Tbc
probab|||tyoItbcquccnontbc|c|t|s56% anJtbcprobab|| |tytbcJropw|||
succccJ|s26%. WbcnNortbIo||owstotbcscconJrounJw|tbcarJw, on|ytwo
poss|b|||t|csrcma|n,-Ow|tbawc|gbtoI24anJO-w|tbawc|gbtoI2 1 . Tbc
oJJsIavortbchncssc |ntbcrat|ooIB. 7, tbcrat|ooItbccuncnt vacantp|accs.
Tb|s|s|naccordanccw|tbKc|scy'sKu|c.
Now |ct's assumc tbat, w|tbouttbcovcrca||,spadcs wcrc |cdandIoond to
sp
||t
4-4.
D
e
fnders
Spades
Hearts
Mi nors
Mi nors Wei ghts
5ubgmupa
Generic
Number
Paths
R
emnants
\ Weights
Mi nors
Pobabi liti es
N S N S
4 - 4 4 - 4
3 . 1 2 - 2
6 - 8 7 - 7
2 1 24
Quw- x
3
2
2 1
23%
N S
4 - 4
1 . 3
8 - 6
2 1
II
Qu - w
3
2
24
27%
Ill
uw- Qx
3
2
24
2,
Vacant Places
9
8
7
I
u - Qw
3
2
2 1
23%
9
8
?
A|tcroncroundoIbcans,tbc|oat|onoItbcquccn|saJO-JOpropos|t|on. Wbcn
NorthIo||owstotbcsccondroundw|tbcardw, tbcoddsIavortbcquccn bc|ng
on tbcr|gbtratbcrtbanontbc |ch |ntbc rat|ooIB. 7, aga|n |nm|| agrccmcnt
with tbcrat|ooIcorrcntvacantp|accs.
|ngcncra|, ahcrtbcscqucnccuxw, tbcproport|onsarcasIo||ows.
Remnants
Wei ghts
Q - 0
W(3- 1 )
0 - Q
W(2-2)
w
he
re W rcprcscnts a rc|at|vcwc|gbt tbat mayb bascd on tbc s|toat|onahcr
c
ar
ds
havc bccn |cd |ntbc m|nor so|ts. Howcvcr,Ior tbc sakcoIs|mp||c|ty wc
h
a||st|ckw|tbtbcassompt|ontbatp|ay|ntbcouts|dcso|tsbasnots|gn|hcant|y
h
angcJ
tbcrat|ooIwc|gbtshomtbcrat|ooIvacantp|accs.
W
hen there are fur cards missing to the queen, plan Kfi nesse if the i mbalance
of i nc
lusive vacant places is 2 or more Kthe lef. If the i mbal ance to the lef i s
1
f p
lay fr the drop or the fi nesse as desi red. Otherwise, pl ay for the drop.
Cmm9 l N|oe-Nev, E|d-Ev,aMcm I l Z9 J
T|s rcso|tho|Jswhcn thcp|aos|b|cp|aysIorcacbcond|t|onbavcatta|nc
J
cqoa||ty. Tat |s thc kcy rcqo|rcmcnt. Tb|s |s gcncm||y tbc casc wbc
n
tb
c
JcIcnJcrs ho|J an cvcn nombcr oI cards |nc|od|ng a s|ng|c bonor. It |s
not
gcncra||ytrocwbcntbcdcIcndcnbo|danoddnombcroIcards|nc|od|ngas|ng|e
bonor, |nwb|cbs|toat|ontbc nombcnoIp|aos|b|cp|aysdonotrcacbcqoa
||t
v
ont||a|| |ns|gn|hcantcardsbavcbccnp|aycd.
Missing Four to the Queen-Jack
P0|!kincura sometmes saves R of exlntion.
- Sak||H. H. Monrol | I B70- I 9I l
Cmmonscnscdcmandstbatwbcnadcc|s|on| s t obmadc,oncsboo|dtakc|nto
accoont a|| |nIormat|on ava||ab|c at tbc t|mc. Matbcmat|ca||y, th|s trans|ates
|ntotbcoscoI0postioi odsobta|ncdhomanapp||cat|onoIbaycs'Tbcorc.
Adv|cconbowtop|ayso|tcomb|nat|ons|stoohcnbascdontbc0mmoJJ
w|tboot g|v|ng doc rcgard to how concnt cond|t|ons havc a|tcrcd tbc oJJ
s|gn|hcant|y. Lct'snowcons|dcrsochaC, wh|ch waddrcsscdbybomor|st
IrankV|nc|nb|sart|c|c' HowIAb||sbcdthcKo|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc'(Norh
of r Mat Solves' C|m, Mastcr Io|nt Im,Z0Bl.
V|ncdcscr|bcsatmmpso|tcomb|nat|on|nwh|chhchc|d4B7Zopposi
t
e
AKI 0J, so tbc dcIcndcn hc|d Q-J-4-3. Hc p|aycd thc A, dropp|ng tbc t
homtbcKH. Kctom|ngtoband,bcp|aycdtowardsmctcnacc|ndommyaoJ
LHIo||owcdw|tbthcrcma|n|ng|owspadc. Shoo|dhchncwIorthcjorp|av
Ior tbcdrop' Tb|s|snotancxamp|coIthcN|nc-NcvcrKo|c,wh|chapp||cs
tbcs|toat|onwbcrcon|yonchonor|sm||ng.
Lct's|okattbcs|toat|onattbcp|ntwhcrcV|ncmmtdcc|dctop|aythc
I 0ortbcK. IIwcrcpmscnttbcm|ss|ngcardsQ, J, u, andw, andnotct
ha
t
tbc scqocncc oIp|ays was u Io||owcd by Q Io||owcd by w, wc havc tbcsc t
*
'

poss|b|||t|csrcma|n|ng.
Probabil ities P(l- 1 ) P(2-2)
Combination Juw oppsite Q uw oppsite G
Plausible Plays u - Q- w u - Q- w u - J - w
w- Q- u w- Q - u w- J u
Card Remai ni ng J oppsite void void oppsite J
Number of
Plausible Plays 2 4
Dcc|arcrbasobscncdtbcscqocnccuQw, wh|ch|soncoImop|aos|b|c
choice
IoraJ- I sp||tandoncoIIoorp|aos|b|ccho|ccsIoraZ-Zsp||t.Tcprobab|||t
'
'

i
c
ho
osing the given obser
ed s
eque
nce is 1/2 that of a 3- 1 split plus 1/4 that of a

Z
split.
The relative prbabilities of the jack on the lef |jLIand the jack on the
right
|jKIare proprional to these quantities:
JL
M 1 /2 x P(3 1 ) and JR 1 /4 x P(22), so that
J
VJR
2 P(3- 1 )/P(2-2)
|I
this
mtio is gater t 1 , declarr should fnese; the jack is mor likely to b
on the lef.
So now we need to consider the values ofP(3- 1 ) and P(2-2 ), the prbabilities
oIthe individual 3- 1 and 2-2 combinations bfor the spade suit is played. In
f
act,
all
that is needed is their mtio. Tis depnds on the mtio of vacant places,
w
hich is not the mtio of the 0 I ods, bcause signifcant cards have ben
p
l
ayed
outide the spade suit. However, if the inforation is scant and the vacant
p
l
aces are in balance, one may assume that the 0 I ods represent a fir
approximation. P P(J- 1 ) and P(2-2) rpresnt the probabilities of a paricular
com
bination and the 0 I ods refer to the total numbr of combinations
pos
s
ible, one must divide the 0I ods by the numbr of pssible combinations
for each split. Tus,
P(2-2) 0.407/6 and P(3- 1 ) 0. 2485/4, or more exac,
2 P(3- 1 )/ P(22) . ( 1 1 /9) (
6
/4) . 1 1 /
6
Without much infortion on how the outside suits ar split, declarr is justifed
in taing the fnes. It is not quite a to-to-one propsition, but it is clos
enough to that for the pu of deterining the btter play.
When APt0tDoesn't Work
'It|s0ct mWR teo:e bfae 0 h d. lneibl 0
bg R twtfat R stto, mMof teo K su|tfat. '
Sherlok Holmes in Amin Boh
Sir Arur CmDyle( 1 859- 1930)
sme c have ben played, the values of P(J- 1 ) and P( 2-2) ar diferent
'
"
t
h
eir 0
I
values, but the diferences in their mtios may not b gat
`"b
to
afect the decision 3 to whether or not to fnesse. For example,
s
uppo
se
it is kown that the hears have split 4-4, $the number of vacant places
basbccnrcJuccJfrom tbc|n|t|a|twcnty-twotoaconcntIoortccn. |ntbatcasc,
|tcanbcsbowntbat
2 P(3-1 )/P(2-2) ( 1 2/7) (6/ 4) 1 8/7
TbccbangcoItbcrat|oIromI I /to I B/7docsnotahccttbcdcc|s|ontohncssc.
Wbatdoscbangc arc tbc probab|||t|cs, tbc morc cvcn sp||t bc|ng morc ||kc|y
asoots|dccardsarcp|accdcqoa||ybctwccntbctwodcIcndcrs. Morcs|gn|hcant
cbangcs|ntbc rat|oarcdocto|mba|anccs|ntbcvacantp|accs,andtbcscmay
ahcct tbc dcc|s|on. Sopposc tbat hom tbccar|y p|ay tbc bcarts arc known to
sp||t-Z, rcso|t|ng |n an |mba|anccoIIoorvacantp|accs |n IavoroItbc RHO.
Tbc ammoddsno|ongcrprov|dcava||dapprox|mat|ontoF| J- I l| Z-Zlattbc
t|mcoIdcc|s|on,andp|ay|ngIortbcdrop bccomcs| matbcmat|ca||yIancqoa||v
attract|vcpropos|t|on. Lct's|okataspcc|hcoconcncc.
9 8 7 6 2
D
A K 1 0 5
V K 7 < 4 3 2
A S K 9 4 2
+ K Q 1 0 6 4 + A 7
Weat Nom oat Su
2< db | pss
3. pss 4+ pass
4< pss 4NT pass
5+* pss 50 pass
m al l pass
Nortb|cadstbcA and cont|nocsw|tbtbc , won w|tb tbcK. Dcc|arer
p|ays to tbc A, ondcr wb|cb Sootb p|ays tbc 4. Dcc|arcr rctom w|tbout
|nc|dcnttotbcOA |nordcrto|cadasccondroondoItmmpstowardstbcKl 1
NortbIo||owstobtbspadcsw|tb|owcards. WbatarctbcodsthatSootbbo|d
tbcj ' Hcrcarctbcrcma|n|ngposs|b|||t|cs.
Mi nors
3 . 1
< 6 - 2
4 . 1 0
2 - 2
< 6 - 2
5 - 9
Tbcm|nor-so|tcardcomb|nat|onsarc|ntbcmt|ooIZtoI , 5 oorkcyrat|o
|
|
andattbcpo|ntoIdcc|s|on,|t|scqoa||y| |kc|ytbattbcjack| |cs w|tb N
o
0
h
''
'
w|tbSootb. Sboo|ddcc|arcrhncssc'
l lJZ I me, Pom|||aMIojmaoo
Tbc Jcc|s|on |s notqo|tcrcJoccd to a co|n toss, bccaosc onc a|so bas tbc
op
cn|ng|caJtocons|Jcr. Nortbbo|JstbcA. |s|tmorc||kc|ytbatbcwoo|d
|caJtbcAwbcnbo|J|ngJ4Jorwbcnbo|J|ngJ ' W|tbtbcIormcrbo|d|ng,
b
cm|gbtwc||bavcbopcsIoratromptr|ck|nb|sownbandandsocasbtbcA
ratbcrtbanbankondcc|arcrnccd|ngatr|ckhomb|sprcsomcdK. Howcvcr,|I

ortbbad|cdtbcO,dcc|arcrm|gbttakctbcv|cwtbatbc|smorc| |kc|ytobo|d
eJanddocsn'twanttoabandontbcbopcoItwotr|cks|ntbcrcdso|ts.
|Itbc|mba|ancc|ntbcvacantp|accs|sJormorc,tbcoddsIavorp|ay|ngIor
tbc
Jrop,arcso|tnotcd |n Kood|ncsco'sDictionr of Suit Cominton. T|s|s
ar
arc,botnotncg||g|b|c,poss|b|||ty. Hcrc|sancxamp|cwbcrcNonbpmcmpts
w|tbascvcn-cardso|t.
9 8 7 6 2
D
A K 1 0 5
< K 7 < 4 3
< A 8 < K 9 4 2
+ K Q 1 0 6 4 + A 7 3
Weat Nom oat Su
1 . 3< 4< pss
4. pss 4NT* pass
s pass > pass
al l pss
Nortb|cadstbc Aandp|ayproccds3 bIorc. Attbcpo|ntoIdcc|s|on,tbc
rc|cvantd|str|bot|onsoItbcm|nonarc3sbownb|ow .
Mi nors
3 - 1
C 7 - 2
3 - 1 0
2 - 2
C 7 - 2
4 - 9
Now 2 X ||J- l I/|| Z-ZI 4/J wb|cb|s|ctbanl , 5 tbcrc|sastrong|nd|cat|on
that tbcjack||cs|ntbc5ootbband. Dc|arcrsboo|drc]cctgo|danccbascdon|y
!% tbc0mmoddsandp|ayIortbcdmp.
When there are fur cards missing including the queenjack and an honor flls
M the first round fom the RHO, plan to finesse on the seond round unless
there i s an excess of four or more vacant places on the right. With an excess
of five or more, play fr the drop. If there is an excess of fur, play fr the
drop
or finesse according K other i nfrmation reeived.
Cmm9 l N|m-Nev,E|dt-Ev,aMcm | l JJ |
TheE| hI EverR0|e
Eight,ver Rule: When the defenders hol four insigifcant card and
0queen in a citical suit , fnesse fo the queen rather than ply for the
drop. If possible, fnesse through the hand with the geater number of
vacant plces .
Wcnowcomctoam|coItbombIorhncss|ngtbatadcc|arcrcantakctotbcbank
Ln||kctbc'N|nc- Ncvcr'ro|c,tbchncssc|soncond|t|ona||ytbcbcttcrpcr
ccnta
ge
p|ay, cvcnwbcn |t most bc takcnaga|nst tbc gra|n, as |t wcrc. Wbat bappe
ns
to tbc ods wbcn tbc qoccn |s accompan|cd by a sccond, or tb|rd, s|gn|hcant
card' Any|n|t|a|cond|t|onscanbcaccommodatcdbytbcapp||cat|onoIaycs'
Tbcorcm,tbcm|cbcb|ndtbcm|cs,sotbatw|||bcoorapproacb|ntb|scbapter
Itw|||bcsccn tbat tbckcyIactor|stbcnombcroI|ns|gn|hcantcards tbatcanbe
p|aycdhcc|y.Ioorw|tbQ'x'x'x'x, tbrccw|tbQ'x'x'x orQ, l O'x'x'x, andsoon.
Tb|s nombcrdctcrm|ncstbc nombcr oIp|aos|b|cpcrmotat|onsava||ab|c whcn
aso|t|sp|aycddownandtbcdcIcndcnIo||oww|tb|owcards. Wc bcg|nw|tb
!
tbrcc-cards|toat|on.
Missing Three to the King
Cons|dcr tbc p|ay wbcn dcc|arcr |cads towards dommy's tcnacc wbcn bo|J|ne
tcncards|ntbcso|tm|ss|ngtbck|ng.
A QJ 5 4

1 0 9 8 7 6
Sopposc tbc LHIo||owsw|tb tbc2. Wby |stbc hncssc a|ways bcttcr tb
!
o
p|ay|ng Ior tbc drop' Isn't |t wonc tban a J0-J0 props|t|on w|tb mo carJ

m|ss|ngwbcntbcKHbasagrcatcrnombcroIvacantp|accsrcma|n|ng' Wel l .
tbat'snottbcconcctwayoItb|nk|ngaboot|t. Tbcqocst|on|snotwbctbcrthc
hncsscw|nsor|oscs,botwbctbcr|t|sbttcrtbantbcdrop. Hcrc|stbcs|toat|oo
ahcrtbc2 |sp|aycd,wbcrcIrcprcscntstbcprobab|||tyoIag|vcnsp||tbcIo
|
c
tbcso|t|sp|aycd.
Split 3 - 0
u u
1 2
Probabilit P(3
.
1 P(2 1 1 P(2- 1 I P( 1 21
Cards K32 - 0 K2 3 32 - K 2 K3
Plausible Plays 2 1 2 1
Weights P(3
.
1 2 P(2- 1 1 P(2- 1 I 2 P( 1 21
I l J4 I rmc, From|||aMIojmam
{
c
wc|ghts arc thc Iacton that must bc app||cd to thc rcma|n|ng card
c
o
mb|nat|ons |nordcr toan|vcat thc concctcond|t|ona| probab|||t|cs. Thcy
Jcpcnd on thc rat|o oIthc |n|t|a| pmbab|||t|cs oIthc sp||t and thc numbcr oI
p|aus|b|cp|ays. ThcIormcrdcpcndsonthcobscncdcond|t|onsouts|dcthcsu|t,
th
c
|a
ttcronobwncdconJ|t|onsw|th|nthcsu|t.Thcwc|ghtsarcpmpn|ons,
ca
n
bccxprcsscd|naconvcn|cntIom|nvo|v|ng|ntcgcn|nstcadoIhact|ons.
Thc propn|on oI thc card comb|nat|ons Ior wh|ch thc hncssc w|ns |s
Jcnotcdby, andthcpropn|onIorwh|chthcdropw|ns|sdcnotcdbyDW
W
P(3.) 2 P(2- 1 ) and OW P(2- 1 ) g M
W OW P(3.) P(2- 1 ) P 0
(
ccthc|owcardappanhomthcLH,thcrcarca|waysmorccardcomb|nat|ons
th
atIavorthchncwthanIavorthcdrop.Thcdctcm|n|ngIactor|sthc|mba|ancc
|
0
thcnumbnoIp|aus|b|cp|aysw|th|nmc2-1 sp||t,thccond|t|ona|probab|||ty
o|
onccand|datcb|ngha|vmrc|at|vctomcothcr.
IIrcpmwnumcpropn|onIorwh|chthchncc|ows,thcn
F| -W= 2 P( 1 -2) P(2- 1 ) - 2 P(2 1 ) . P(3.) P 0
||thcvacantp|accsamba|anccd,thchncw|s|cthan50%succcssm|.
Missing Three to the King-Jack
N

w |ct's |ok at thc s|mat|onwhcndcc|arcr|cads thc thrcc towardsdummy's

tcnaccwhcnho|d|ngtcncard|nthcsu|tm||ngthck|ng-jack.
A Q 1 0 9 8
.
7 6 5 4 3
Su
pp
scthcLHIo||owsw|thmc. Wcnshou|ddcc|arcrp|aythcl
i
mtcadoIthc4? T|sprob|cmcanb|vcdus|ngthcbaycsapproach3
rtcscntcdabvc,mcd|hcrcnccb|ngthatatthcp|ntoIdcc|s|onthcnumbr
'
p|aus|b|cp|aysuthcmmcIora||cand|datcs.
plit
3 - 0
u
2 - 1 1 2
"'9bcb|||b
P(3.) P(2- 1 ) P(2- 1 ) P( 1 -2)
\rds
I2 . 0 K2 - J J2 K 2 - M
Pl00s|b|e
Plas
1 1 1 1
^iqht
P(3.) P(2- 1 ) P(2- 1 ) P( 1 -2)
Chr | Nw-Ncvo,E|d-Ew,Beo [ 135 J
Playing the t 0 caters for a 3-0 spl it, whereas to play the caters for a 2- 1 sp
li t
with the jack ofside. One should play the t 0 if P( 3-0) P
P
( 2- l ) ,which re
quires
an imbalance in the exclusive vacant places of at least three on the |cIt
.
Missing Three to the King- Ten
Tbc samc proccss can bc app||cd to tbc casc wbcrc tbc k|ng-tcn arc held hy
tbcdcIcndcrs. Ont|| rcccnt|y,| badassomcJcvcncxpcr|cnccdp|aycrkne
w
to
hncssc|ntbcsccond|t|ons.
Weat
1 +
4.
Nom
A 6
J 8 7 5
A Q 7 3
+ K QJ
D
Su
8 3
A Q 9 6 4 3
9 6 2
1 0 7
Nom
1 NT
5<
oat
2.
all ptt
Su
3<
Tbcb|dd|ngwasonsoondbotnorma|Ior a Ir|dayn|gbtattbc |oca|dup||c
at.
Dcsp|tc tbccmd|t|csoItbc aoct|on, SV wasrcasonab|candc|cvcn tr|cks
^

'

w|tb|n rcacb. Tbc opcn|ng |cad was norma|, tbc9, s|g|h|ng0 or

2 hi
glwr
bonon. Dc|arcrwontbcA |ndommyandattackcdbcans. InIact,bcfolll)\w.l
tbcbab|toIdccadcsby|cad|nganonsopportcdj ackbop|ngIoracovcr.
Wlwu
LstIo||owcdsmotb|yw|tb tbc<:2, dcc|arcrstod|cdtbccard|ntcnt|yfor
l l1V
t|mc. Mottcr|ng wbat soondcd ||kc, '|Itb|sdosn't work, b|amc Z|a' ,
-'`'' `
wcntopw|tbtbcaccandawa|tcdtbcIatcoItbccontract.
Wcarc|napos|t|ontocst|matctbcsocccssoIhncss|ngvcnusp|ay|
ng
f1
1r |
h
dropaItcrbastIo||owsw|tbtbc<:2.
| l J I rme, From|aMIojm aoo
Spl i t
3 0
l L
0 3
Cards K I 02 0 K I 0 2 2 K I 0 0 K I 02
K2 I 0 I 0 K2
I 02 K K I 02
Afer
2
K I 0 0 K - I 0 I 0 K 0 K I 0
Pl
ausi bl e Plays I I I I
Wei ghts
P[3-0| P[2 I | P[2 I | P[ ! 2|
T
e b|J
J|ng and p|ay bavc not bccn bc|pm| as tbcrc |s st||| a grcat dca| oI
aoc
ctta|nty |nvo|vcd. |t |s rcasonab|c asa hrst stcpto assomc tbc0 mmodds
te
|
tcscntaIa|rapprox|mat|onoItbccx|st|ngcond|t|ons,soonc|s|napos|t|on
t: cva|uatc tbc opt|ons nomcr|ca||y. Tbc 0 mm odds Ior cacb |nd|v|doa|
,
mb|n
at|onw|tb|ntbcposs|b|csp||tsarcasIo||ows.
3 - 0
I !
l
I 3
J
! 3
0 3
I !
hcca00 bastbas|cngtb |nspadcs, |tappcarsmorc||kc|ytbattbcbcartsarcsp||t
` | ra
|
h0I
tban 1 -2 andtbatWcstmostbo|dtbcCK toj ost|hb|sopcn|ngb|d.
The s|tuat|onsccmsncar|ybopc|css. Conms|on mayar|sc|Ioncbastopondcr
|hc |ponJcrab|cs. tbc morc pondcr|ng, tbc morc conms|on. Somc p|aycrs,
aot| ogthattbcjackwasnotcovcrcd,w|||tntodroptbck|ngratbcrtbanhncssc
| r |t. Tb|s|s|nconcctrcason|ng. Tbcdcc|s|onsboo|dbcbascdnotonwbcrc
|hc .|ng |smorcprobab|y |oatcd, bot wb|cb p|ay worksmorcoItcn. nccan
. |-||yshowtbattbchncsscw|nsmorctbantbcdrop,rcgard|cssoItbcnombcroI
.tcant p|accs. SopposcF rcprcscntstbcsomoIwc|gbtsIorwb|cbtbchncssc
wi n-anJDWtbcsomoIwc|gbtsIorwb|cbtbcdropw|ns.Now,
FW * P[3D| P[2- Iig and OW * P[2- !ig tothat
FW OW * P[3D| >0
`
'
h| n-coo|dbcs|mp|cr.
0st
M
oncm Anlysis AItcr a|| tbc cards arc d|sc|oscd, |t |s casy cnoogb Ior
| i hi
'
:cr
to hnd rcasonab|c argomcnts tosopport tbc w|nn|ng p|ay wbatcvcr |t
'
i | ppc
n
to
bc. Hcrc anassompt|on ncccssanIortbcsocccssoItbccontract |s

'

'
t
he
OK ||cs w|tbWcst to tbc |cIt oItbc tcnacc. G|vcn tbat assompt|on,
'
Jocsn'trcqo|rctbcCK Iorb|sopcn|ngb|dand|tbccomcs| |kc|ytbatbast
` ' `
thc
CK |nordcrtoj ost|htbchccb|doI2. Howcvcr,|t|scasycnoogbto
`'

-| bandswbcrctbcCK | |csw|tbWcstandtbcK w|tb bast, wboschcc

` `' ' `I
st|
bcdbytbcqoa||tyoItbcso|t.
Cmpm9 l N|m-Nev,E|dt-Ev,aMeym I l J7 I
Missing Five to the Queen
Now wc comc to tbc most Iamous anJ succcssIo| ru|c Ior Jcc|arcr p|ay
,
th,
b|gbt-bvcrKu|c. Tb|s|soIgrcat |ntcrcstbccaoscanc|gbt-cardtrompht |sv,
common,anJtbcquccn|soItcncnoogbbc|Jbytbcopponcnts.Tbcprob
|c

|s
bowtop|aytb|scomb|nat|on.
A 1 0 8 6 K J 9 7
Tbchrstcons|dcrat|on|shomwb|cbbandtobcg|n w|tb atopbonor. Start|n
w|tb tbc jackmaytcmpta covcrhomtbc KH. To makctbc prob|c
m
or,
d|mco|t,|ct'scbangctbcconhgorat|ontorcmovc tbctcmptat|ontocovcr.
A 1 0 5 4 K J 7 6
Lct'ssopposctbatdcc|arcrstartsw|tbtbcaccontbcassompt|ontbattbcLHO i-
morc||kc|ytobo|dtbcqoccn,tbcnp|aystowarJstbcKj,tbcdcIcndcrsIo||ow|ne
w|tb|owcardsa||tbcway. Hcrc |stbcs|toat|onattbct|mcoIdcc|s|onaItcrthe
scqocnccoI|owcards,u y; w.
Split 4 . 1 3 - 2 3 - 2 2 - 3
Probabi l i t P(4- 1 ) P(3-2) P(3-2) P(2-3)
Cards Quw- y Guw-x uwx- Qy uw- Qx
Remai nders Qx- 0 Q - x x- Q 0 - Qx
Plausible Plays 6 4 6 4
Weights 2P(4- 1 ) 3P(3-2) 2P(3-2) 3P(2-3)
Tbcs|toat|onbasbccn rcdoccd totbccascd|scosscdabovcw|tbanbonorcar.l
andan|ns|gn|hcantcardst|||ootstand|ngandtbrccpss|b|csp||ts|nvo|vcJ. Thl
wc|gbts arc adjostcd to accoont Ior tbc concnt sctoIp|aos|b|c p|ays. Wcc!n
cas||ysbowtbat
FW. ow . 2 P(4- 1 ) P(3-2) P 0,
sotbchncssc|sa|waysabttcrprops|t|ontbantbcdrop.
FW. FL - 2 P(4- 1 ) P(3-2) - 3 P(2-3)
sotbchncssc|s|csstbanJ0%socccssm|wbcntbcrc|saba|ancc|ntbc|nc
|
a-|
.
vacant p|accs. |Itbcrc |san |mba|ancc oI 1 ormorc |nIavoroItbc L
H
O.
||v
hncssc|sbcttcrtbanJ0%.
The Vacant Place Approximation
'
Wc bavc now comc to tbc prob|cm oIcst|mat|ng probab|||t|cs oIa
succ

|
| lJb ) me,Pom|||aMIojmam
f
n
esse wbcntbcrcarcanoncvcnnombcroIcarJsm|ss|ng|naso|tanJIrccJom
llf c
b
o|ccbasnotbccncomp|ctc|yc||m|natcJbytbcp|ay.TcJcIcnJcrsbo|Jhvc
(ru
mps|bcartsI |nc|oJ|ngtbcqoccn,JcnotcJbyQ,u, w, X, anJ y. Assomcc|gbt
s
p
a
de
s arcknowncardshomtbcopponcnts'banJsanJJcc|arcrbasJcc|JcJto
p
la
y tb
caccandhncsscIortbcqoccn|ntbcs|toat|onTA9B7oppos|tcTKJ I O.
A
k
nownsp||t|ntbcspaJcso|tw|||p|ayapart|nJctcrm|n|ngtbcprobab|||tyoI
-ucc
css,
astbatw|||dctcrm|nctbcnombcroIvacant p|accstobch||cdbybcarts
an
d tbcm|non.
||rst,assomcspadcsarcd|v|dcd4-4. Dcc|arcrcasbcstbc
T
A, towb|cbbotb
def
ender
Io||oww|tb|owcards,andLHIo||owsw|tba|owcardwbcndcc|arcr
|c3
J
a bcart towards tbc dommy. Hcrc arc tbc rcma|n|ng poss|b|||t|cs |n tbc
h
ea
rt so|ttogctbcrw|tbtbcp|aos|b|cpcrmotat|ons|ntbcp|ayahcrtbcscqocncc
ii)

4 - 1 3 - 2 3 - 2 2 - 3
S
p
ades
4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4
Hearts
Qu - y Quw- x uw- Qy uw- Qx
Permutations 6 4 6 4
Probabilit 1 5. 8% 3 1 . 6% 2 1 .0% 3 1 .6%
Te hncssc w||| soccccd wbcn tbc ' |s on tbc |ch, a probab|||ty oI47.4%,
1ownhomtbc|n|t|a|J0%bIorcabcartwasp|aycd. Tbcdccrcasc|sdoctotbc
j
.ict tbat twoIavomb|c cond|t|om bavc bcn rcmovcd, tbcqoccn s|ng|cton or
1oub|ctonontbc|ch. I|ay|ngIortbcdrop|smocbwoncatZ I %.
Tc vacantp|accmt|odcpndsontbc |mba|ancc |ntbcnombcroIspadcs
hc|J bytbc opponcnts. Tbc Io||ow|ngtab|csbows tbc rat|ooItbcprobab|||ty
of thcqoccnon tbc r|gbt to tbc probab|||noItbc qoccn on tbc |ch ahcr tbc
sequencc u-y; w |ncompar|sontotbcrat|ooItbcconcnt vacant p|accs |CVII
under tbcsamcc|rcomstanccs.
Conditions 4 - 1 3(Q) - 2 3 - 2(Q) 2 - 3 CVP Ratio
Spades
3-5 22% 32% 22% 24% 1 . 1 4 1 . 1 8
Spades
3- 1 9% 32% 2 1 % 28% 1 .00 1 .03
^ riori
1 7% 3 1 % 2 1 % 3 1 % 0.92 0.93
Spades
1 6% 32% 2 1 % 32% 0. 88 0.90
Spades
4-3 1 4% 3 1 % 20% 35% 0. 78 0. 80
Spades
5-3 1 1 % 30% 20% 40% 0.67 0. 69
A

thc |mba|ancc |nthc spadcs |ncrcascs hom -Z to Z, tbcd|hcrcncc bctwccn

''
'
c

trcmcsoItbc4- l sp||t andtbc Z-J sp||t |ncrcascs. Tbcd|hcrcncc |ntbc

|
r
|ab|||t|cs |n tbc m|dd|c cbangc bot ||tt|c. Tbc concnt vacant p|acc rat|o
'

||
ht|y
|owcrtban tbc actoa| mt|o btwccn tbcprobab|||noItbcqoccnon
Cmm9 l N|m-Nev,E|g-Ev,aMcm | l J9 I
the |e|t anJ the probab|||tyo|tbc quccn on tbc r|gbt. Nonctbc|css, tbc CVP
rat|o trackstbevar|at|ons so as tog|vca Ia|rapprox|mat|on. Tbc oJJs bascJ
on tbe assumpt|on tbat spaJcs arc not known ( tbc 0 mm cc) g|vcs a go
od
approx|mat|ontotbcs|tuat|onwbcrctbcrc|saba|ancc|ntbcvacantp|accsw|th
spaJcssp||t4-4.
Tb|s rcso|t sbows tbat at tbc tab|c onc can rc|y on tbc corrcnt vacant
p|accrat|o a go|Jc totbcratcoIsocccssoItbchncssc, towb|cbadcc|arcr|s
ncvcrtbc|csscomm|ttcd. Tb|s rcso|tsbowstbat tbc vacantp|acc rat|orcma|ns
apract|ca|approx|mat|onwbcnadjostcdIortbc appcarancc oI|owcarJs |nt
h
c
so|tbc|ng p|aycddown.
Eigt-Ever Success Rte Tbc concnt vacant p|acc rat|o |s a pract|ca|
approx|mat|ontotbcrat|ooItbcprobab|||tyoItbcqoccnons|dctotbcprobab|||tv
oItbcqoccnohs|dcattbct|mcwbcnadcIcndcrIo||owstotbcsccondroonJw|th
a|owcarJ.Wbcntbcrat|o|s|csstban 1 , tbchncsscbas|csstbana50% cbance
oIsocccss,botrcma|nsabcttcrpropos|t|ontbanp|ay|ngIortbcdrop.
The Play Missing Five Cards to the Queen- Ten
Wcnowcomctotbcprob|cmoItbcbstp|ayIortbcs|toat|onb|owwbcrctbcte
archvccarJsbc|dbytbcdcIcndcn.tbcqoccnaccompan|cdbytbctcnanJtbrcc
|ns|gn|hcantcards.
K 9 4 2 AJ 8 3
TbcrcaJcrmayant|c|patctbat,bcaosctbcrcarcanodnombroI|ns|gn|hcaot
carJs, tbcnombcroIp|aos|b|cp|aysonap|aydowoItbcso|tw|||rcacbcqua||rv
aItcraroondandaba|I,sotbaton|ytbcQ- 1 0 rcma|ntobp|aycd. Lct'ssuppo

tbatJcc|arcrstartsw|tbtbck|ngontbcaompt|ontbattbcLH|smorc||kc|r
tobo|Jtbcqoccn,tbcnp|aystowardstbcA-j, tbcdcIcndcnIo||ow|ngw|tb|
o
carJsa||tbcway. Hcrc|stbcs|toat|onattbct|mcoIdcc|s|onahcrtbcscqucnc
oI|owcards,u y; w.
Split 4 - 1 3 - 2 3 - 2 2 - 3
Probabilit P(4- 1 ) P(3-2) P(3-2) P(2-3)
Cards Q1 0uw- y Quw- 1 0y 1 0uw- Qy uw- Q1 0y
Remai nders Q1 0 - 0 Q - 1 0 1 0 - Q O - Q1 0
Plausi ble Plays 2 2 2 2
Weights P(4- 1 I P(3-2) P(3-2) P(2-3)
| l40 I rme, From|aMIojmam
Tbc prcscncc oItbc tcn makcs tbc numbcroIp|aus|b|cp|ayscqua| to 2 Iora||
c
omb|nat|ons,assum|ngtbctcnw|||notbcp|aycdun|cssIorccd bya rcstr|ctcd
c
bo|cc. |tIo| |owstbat
FW OW . P[4- I | P 0,
ht t
bchncssc|sa|waysabcttcrpropos|t|ontbantbcdrop.
FW
FL . P[4- I | P[2-3|
wb|cb|sgrcatcrtban0|Itbcrc|san|mba|ancc|nvacantp|accsoII ormorcon
t
bc
|cIt.
Tbc ana|ys|s abovc |s j ost anotbcr s|mp|c app||cat|on oIaycs' Tbcorcm,
h
owcvcr, tbcrc |s morc to tb|s prob|cm tban a stm|gbtIomard p|ay bascd ona
supcmc|a|rcad|ngoItbcs|toat|on. Dcc|arcr most ant|c|patcthattwo|cadsarc
rcqu|rcd to p|ck op tbc two m|ss|ngbonorcards, soanopt|momstratcgymost
hcp|anncdovcrtwop|ays,notj osttbconc,as|ntbccascoI'L|gbt-Lvcr'wbcrc
thcquccn|stbcon|ys|gn|hcantcardtobchncsscd. Tbc|n|t|a|p|ayoItbck|ng
dcstroysa tcnacc aga|nst tbc tcn |y|ng ontbc r|gbt. tbcotbcrband, |Ian
|mmcd|atchncsscIortbcqoccn|stakcn,atcnaccaga|nsttbctcnrcma|ns|ntact
i
n
botbbands,soappropr|atcact|onaga|nsttbctcncanbctakcnontbcsccond
munJ|nc|tbcrd|rcct|on.
Tc opt|mom stratcgy dcpcnds opon tbc nombcr oI tr|cks rcqo|rcd. At
matcbpo|nts,oncm|gbtw|sbtotakcasmanytr|cksasposs|b|c,sotbchrst-roond
fnesse oItbcj ack|stbcmarkcdp|ay. At|MIscor|ng,oncoItbcmostbc|ovcd
oIsaIctyp|ays|s|n|t|a||ytocashtbcaccbcb|ndthcprcsomcd|ongcrbo|d|ngon
thc|cIt |nordcrtoncotra||:ctbc tcnon tbc tb|rdroondw|tbQ- I 0|nhontoI
thcj-B |ndommy.
Mi
ssi ng the J ack-Sixth
If :OU can sp a pecd: uelss afR in a pecd: uelss
mnne, :OU have leard R live.
- L|nYotang | I B9J- I 97l
Watcb|ngtbcZ0BCanad|anNat|ona|TcamsCbamp|onsb|pson , | was
`

9
r|scd by tbc |ack oI |n|t|at|vc oIp|aycrs bo|d|ng 4AKQI 0xx wbcn, as |s

cn
tbc casc, tbcycndcd op |n JNT mak|ngIoorovcnr|cks. ppos|tc a
`
|n
g|ctonspotcard,sochaso|tw|||prov|dcs|x tr|cksmorctban J0%oItbct|mc
"
0c
Dtbctopbononarcp|aycdhomtbctop. Ah|cndrcccnt|yprov|dcdararc
Cmm9 l N|m-Nev,E|dt-Ev,aMcm ( l 4l I
var|at|ononp|ay|nascvcn-cardhtm|ss|ngtbcjack,wb|cbnonctbc|cssprov|J
c
s
somc |ns|gbt |nto tbc ca|co|at|on oItbc 0 posmodds. Hcrc arc tbc
ba
D
Js
wb|cb wcrcb|J toan|nIcr|orcontractw|tbanonIam|||arpanncr.
K Q 1 0 9 5 A 3
< K 7 < A J 1 0 9 6
K Q 6 5
Q 8 7 4 + A K J 5
Weat Nom oat Su
2' 2< 3
3. pss 4. pss
4NT pass 50* pss
al l pss
1 . Weak, 61 0 HCP.
Tc |n|t|a| dcIcnsc was tbc 9A and anotbcrd|amond to dcc|arcr's qoccn. As
tbcrc was an cxccss oIvacant p|accs |ntbc 5ootb band, tbcspadc hncssc b
bcttcrtban50%: |twas50% wbcnspadcswcrcsp||t3-3, and67% wbcnsp||t2-4.
A|as,tbchncssc |ost,anddcc|arcrw|chtocons|dcrwbctbcrp|ay|ngIor the
dropwastbcbttcrtbcorct|ca|p|ay. Wbatarc,bcwondcrcd,tbcrc|at|vcOdd-o|
Nonbbav|nga633 1 sbapcvcnosa6322 sbap'
|t |sconcct |n|t|a||yto|mag|nctbcp|b|csbapsoItbcNonbbanJ,bu|
tbc0mmodsdon'tapp|yonccatmmp|sp|aycdtotbcaccdSootbIo||ou-
to tbc sccond roond w|tb anotbcr |ow card. Inwbat Io||ows, to s|mp||h the
ana|ys|s, wc assomc Nonb woo|d not opn d|amonJ w|tb a Ioor-card maor
Lct's cons|dcr tbc s|x most | |kc|y card comb|nat|ons g|vcn tbc b|dd|ng. Tc
rc|at|vcwc|gbDarcg|vcnattbcbttomoItbctab|c.
l ll lll W v V
3 - 3 2 - 4 2 - 4 3 - 3 3 - 3 1 - 5
< 2 . 4 < 3 . 3 < 2 . 4 < 3 . 3 < 1 5 < 3 - 3
6 - 3 6 - 3 6 - 3 6 - 3 6 - 3 6 - 3
2 - 3 2 - 3 3 - 2 1 - 4 3 - 2 3 - 2
60 60 45 40 24
24
Spadcs arc 3-3 on 49% oItbc comb|nat|om, 2-4 on42%, and 1 -5
on

p|ay|ngIor tbc drop |s |nd|catcd. Add|ng tbc wc|ghtsIor tbc ccs wbcrc r
h
:
hncsscw|ns(F) and tbcdropw|ns| DWI, onchndsF 132 ( 52
%)
a
nJ |'
\
1 63 (64%) , ac|caradvantagcto p|ay|ngIortbcdropdoc|argc|y
toI'`
wbcrctbcj ||csdoob|cton.
I l4Z I rme, From|Iojm
Afller analysis can be obtained which takes into account the imbalance in
t
h
e
vacant places. Mainly there are two divisions of the exclusive vacant places
c
on
sider: 4-7 (Conditions |, |Vand VIand -(Conditions || and | | | I . The
,

ber
of combinations in heans and Clobs, N( 3-3 ) and N( 2-4 ), are in the ratio

I
7'

Denoting tbcm|ss|ngtrompsasJ , u, w, x, y, and 7, thcp|avin spades, aIter
H

|
th
Io||ows w|tb card u and 5ootb w|tb cards x and y, v|c|ds tbc Io||ow|ng
rc
a|n|ngcomb|nat|onstobccons|dcrcd.
ck Combi nations N(3-3) N(3-3) N(2-) N(2-4)
Di retion
N S N S N S N S
G
e
n
eri c
uwz- Jx Juw- xz uw- Jxz Ju - wz
R
e
mnants
1 2 2 2
Plausible Plays 6 1 2 1 2 1 2
Pr
obabil it Weights
2 1
|
nbab|||tvcomcs|ntop|ay|naccordanccw|tbthcstr|cturcsoIbavcs'Tbcorcm
:m
-
c the spadc so|t has bccn brokcn. Tbc wc|gbtcd soms oI comb|nat|ons
rcprcscnt tbc rcso|tantcxpcctat|omattbcpo|ntoIdcc|s|on Ior wb|cbtbchrst
combination |stw|ccas||kc|yastbcotbcn. Tbcwc|gbtcdsomsoIcomb|nat|ons
|rwhich tbcdropw|ns( DW) andthchncsscw|ns(F) arcg|vcnbv
DW . 4 N(3-3) N(2-) and FW

2 N(3-3) 2 N(2-)
othat
DW FW 2 N(3-3) N(2-) >0 when N(2-)/N(3-3) 2
The fnesse |scxpcctcdtow|n J9%oItbct|mc,bottbcdropdosbcttcrat%
l un

c
|
thc||m|tat|ontothcscs|xd|str|bot|onsI.
Euality | sacb|cvcdwbcntbcrat|ooIN|Z-4)/(3-3) Z, wb|cbwoo|docor
| |
the

ree
mptorhadhc|dscvcnd|amondsandadvanccrtwo,v|c|d|ngavacant
l' -
discrcpancyoIJ.T|scanbcsccnbynot|ngtbcIo||ow|ngd|str|bot|ons.
3 - 3
0 7 - 2
& . 3 . 8
2 - 4
0 7 - 2
& . 4 - 7
'

'
| the
3-8 sp||tconta|mha|ItbcnombroI comb|nat|onsas tbc4-7sp||t.

'

ncssc|scxpcctcdtow|n|n0%oItbcocuncnccs,sotbccxpcctat|onIor

|

bas dccmmcd hom tbc prcv|ous|yquotcd va|uc, wbcrcas tbat Ior tbc
""'ha
s |ncrcascds||ght|y.
Cmm9 l N|m-Nev, EMt-Ev,aMeym ( l4J J
TheMajor|lyRu|e Rev|s|ted
MRTI N' S MORIT RULE: When holding ei ght cards i n a sui t i ncludi
ng
AKQ 1 09, it can be right to finesse even when a 4- 1 break would leave the
holder of four cards with the majorit of cards in the unknown suit(s) . The 4- 1
break represents an i mbalance of three vacant places, so if the spl it in another
suit must result in the same player having the maj orit, the overall i mbalance i n
the i nclusive vacant places must be at least 4 in order to favor the finesse.
| n tbc Scptcmbcr I 9BJ |ssoco|TmBrge Wol, |b||||pMart|nd|scosscs
thl
s|toat|on |nwb|cbdcc|arcrbo|dsc|gbtcardsw|tb A-x-x oppos|tc K-Q-
1 0
-
9-8.
Tbc aotborpo|ntsoottbat|twoo|dnotbc r|gbt tohncssc |ortbcjack
s|
p|t
bccaosc LH|s known tobo|d morc cards |ntbcso|t tbanKH. Asmost o|
tbc t|mc tbcjack w||| |a||tr|p|cton,dcc|arcrbastobcsorctbattbchncssc |s
bcttcrpmpos|t|onovcra||. Tb|sprob|cmbas|ntcrcst|ntbat|t|||ostratcsbow to
comparctbcptobab|||t|cso|socccsso|two||ncso|p|aytbatdcpcndontbcspl i ts
oots|dctbcso|t. Hcrc|stbcdca|tbatra|scdtbcqocst|on|nMart|n'sm|nJ.
A 6 4 2
D
Q 1 0 9 5
K Q 1 0 9 8 Q A 7 6
- 9 6 5 3
+ A K 8 5 1 0 4
Weat Nom oat Wm
1 . pass 2. 3
4 pass 4Q pss
5 pass 5 pass
al l pass
Nortb|cdtbc02, |owhomodd,mhcdbydcc|arcr. Aspadctotbc9 |osth tlw
K. Dcc|arcrwasab|ctorohtbcd|amondrctomw|tbtbcAanddrawtromp-in
tbrccroonds,Sootb|o||ow|ng,Nortbp|tcb|ngb|s|astd|amond. Mart|nentcr\,1
b|sband|nc|obs,casb|ngtbc4AK,towb|cbbtbopponcnts|o||owcdw|th
1
1
1\\
cards.Nowbc|accdtbcprob|cmo|bowbcsttop|aytbcbcartso|t. Tbc
solut i
1
ll1
dcpcndsonbowtbcc|obsarcsp||tt|ng.
Tbcopponcnts'or|g|na|sbapcscanbasomcdtobonco|tbctwo
fol low i n!
s|dcs.
N N
2 3 2 3 II
3 2 4 Q 3-2 Q 4- 1 (
0. 5)
3 6 3 6 (0.6) 5-2 + 4-3
5 2 4 3 i ncl usive vacant places are
8
an
d
1
1 44
1
rmge, Prom|||aMIojmaoo

(
ntbcr|gbt-banJs|Jcarcg|vcnthctwosu|tso||ntcrcst,bcartsanJc|ubs,whosc
J|
str|bot|ons arc not |u||yJ|sc|oscJ at tbc po|nto|Jcc|s|on w|tbrcgarJ to tbc
h
c
art
su|t. Tcnumbcrs|nbrackctsarctbcnumbcro|carJcomb|nat|onsrc|at|vc

thcmax|momnombcr|ortbemorccvcnsp||ts|ntbc|nJ|catcJso|t.
Tbcgrcatcrnombcro|comb|nat|onsarcIortbc3- 2 bcartsp||t| tbcmax|mom
| |
kc||booJJ|str|bot|on|nbcartsanJc|obsI, sooncmaybctcmptcdontb|sbas|s
,,,
p|ayIor
tbcdrop. Howcvcr,onccansbowcas||ycnoogbtbattbchncsscbasa
bettcr
cb
anccoIw|nn|ng. Tb|s|stbcsoorccoIMart|n'sMajor|tyKo|c. To sbow
th
is,
onc
mcrc|ycoontsoptbcnombcroIcardcomb|nat|onsIorcacbp|ay.
Fi ne
sse
wins (FW) :
Drop
wins (OW) :
ll
0. 6 0. 6 0. 40
0. 6 0. 1 0
Tol
0. 76
0. 70
Penenmge
69%
64%
T
i s |san|ntcrcst|ngrcso|tasIaras|tgos,bottbcrc|ssomctb|ngm|ss|ng|ntbc
aoa|ys|s,wb|cb|s,wbatbappcnstotbc wc|gbts |Itbc c|ob so|t |sp|aycdbcIorc
thc bcarts arctack|cd' In Mart|n'sdca|,ahcrtwomondsoIc|obs,tbcrcma|n|ng
oss|b|||t|csarc. Q-j-x-xoppos|tcx-x-x,Q-x-x-xopps|tcj-x-x,j-x-x-xoppos|tc
o. anJQ-j-x-x-xoppos|tcx-x. A||comb|nat|onscmbodys|xp|aos|b|cp|ays,
othcor|g|na|proprt|onsarcma|nta|ncd.
|t|snotncccssanIortwoso|tstobavcbccnp|aycdoot,s|ncctbconknown
(arJs cou|J bc |n two so|ts. Hcrc |s an cxamp|c oIbow tbc ana|ys|s can b
app
|
|cJ|npract|cc |adca| mo|hcdhomMart|n'scxamp|cI.
K 6 4 2
D
Q 1 0 9
K Q 1 0 9 8 A 7 6
0 4 0 A 6 5 3
+ A K 8 Q 7 3
Weat Nom oat Wm
pass pass 20'
dbl pass 3NT al l pass
1 . Weak, 61 0 HCP .

'0
|caJs tbc%. Nortb ovcrtakcs w|tb tbc OK and rctoms tbc02 wbcn
,fc
larer Jocks,so|tappcarstbatSootbbastbcAasancntn. It|sncccssanto
' ' ''
h
vctr|cks|nbcarts |mmcd|atc|y. |n tb|ss|toat|on,wb|cbp|ay |nbcartsbas
'

|cttcrcbanccoIsocccss'
bc|orccompot|ngtbcoddsIortbcvar|oosposs|b|| |t|cs,maybcgctt|ng|tr|gbt
n
n
a

9
odJay, dcc|arcrdoswc|| top|ayohtbctopc|obstoscc |ISootbdrops
Cmpm9 l N|oe-Nev, E|dt-Ev,aMcm I l45 I
thc+J . Hcrc arcthchvc mostcommonsp||tsw|tbtbc|rrat|osoIcomb|nat|on
s
|ncachso|twbcntbcJc|cnJcrsbavcIo||owcdtotbrccroondsoIc|obs.
I II
4 . 2 (0.75) 3 . 3
c 3 . 2 c 4 . 1 (0. 5)
0 2 - 6 0 2 - 6
4 - 3 +4 - 3
Ill N
4 . 2 (0.75) 5 . 1 (0. 3)
c 4 1 (0. 5) c 3 2
0 2 - 6 0 2 - 6
+ 3 - 4 + 3 - 4
v
5 . 1
(0. 3)
c 2 . 3
0 2 - 6
4 - 3
IISootb p|ays tbc +J on tbc tb|rd roond, a strong |nd|cat|on tbc c|obs wcrc
d|v|dcd4-J,Cond|t|onsI , I I , and V app|y and thc drop oIthc ] bcomcs the
Iavorcdp|ay. IINorthpansw|tbtbc+J, tbc|nd|cat|on|sthatc|obswcrcd|v|JcJ
J-4,andCond|t|onsIIIand IV app|y,andthchncssc bcomcsthcIavorcdp|av
|cvcnbcttcr|Itbc+J and+1 0 arcp|aycdhomthcsamchandI . Charactcr|st|ca||v,
IorTbc Major|tyKo|c toapp|y, tbcrcamon|y mocond|t|onstobcons|dcrcd.
I|na||y, |ISootbsbowsootonthc th|rdroondoIc|obs, thrcc cond|t|onsapp
|v,
andp|ay|ngIortbcdrop|sb|gh|yhvomdcvcnthooghthchandw|thIoorbcans
bo|dstbcmajor|tyoIb|ackcards.
I II Ill
3 - 3 4 - 2 (0.75) 2 - 4 (0.75)
c 3 - 2 c 2 - 3 c 4 . 1 (0.5)
0 2 - 6 0 2 - 6 0 2 - 6
5 - 2 5 - 2 + 5 - 2
Wei ghts 8 6 3
II Ill ImI Prenge
Fi nesse wins (FW) : 0. 6 x 8 0.40 6 0. 8 3 9. 6 56%
Drop wins (OW) : 8 6 0. 1 3 1 4. 3 84%
l l4 ) me,PommIojm
CHAPTER
10
cmNbcLb
.
.
-
o

`
`
`
`
Ituanotcay. . . R comcaroundR 0|datataga|n|ncntropy
cvcntmy|snot|ngmorcorksstanLssoj|njomat|on.
- G. N. Lcw|s | I B7J- I 94I
In
|
h|scbaptcrwcarchop|ngtodcmonstmtcprobab|||st|ctb|nk|ngtbroogbtbc
u0 oIsomccxamp|cs. Thchrstoncprcscntsastmcturcdapproacbtotbcp|av|ng
11f Jca|,|tm|ghtbv|cwcd3 ancxcrc|sc |ngathcr|ng|nIormat|on|nordcrto
(eJucconccrta|nnhoman|n|t|a|statcoImax|mum |gnorancctoahna|statcoI
c.:mp|ctcrcvc|at|on.
ET Plays a Hand
How |gbtan|nIormat|onsc|cnt|sthomoutcrspaccdcscr|bcthcgamcoIbr|dgc'
|crhaps |nth|smanncr.
I
) AdcckoIhm-twocards |sdca|t |nsuch a manncr that anvpart|cu|ar
card|scqua||y ||kc|ytocndup |nthc hand oIanvoncoIIoorp|avcrs.
1|scrcatcs3 cnv|ronmcntoImax|mumcntropv. TbcporposcoIthc
gamc |sto rcvca| a|| thc cards accord|ng to apccu||arand arduous sct
oIm|cs, thcrcbvrcduc|ngthccntropvtotcro. IartoItbcpsvcbo|og|ca|
appca||sthooghttocomchomthcIactthattbcprocssacts|ndchancc
oI
tbc5ccondLwoIThcmodvnam|cs.'
IeSecond mstals that entropy must increse with the pssage of time if no work i s bing
dce. !Playing bridge i s considered leiti matly to b hard work. )
Chpt I 0 l DoarmDeab I 14 7 I
2 ) The game commences with the players exchanging obscurc
c
o(
J
messages ( 'hiJs' ) that describe in general terms the prop
erti
es

their holdings. Sometimes the fourth player to call has the opti
on
,
terminating the game at this stage so that the current placement
of
|
|
cards remains forever undetermined. This deal is said to have rea
c
|

!
tbccond|t|onoITotal Indiference.
JI I ntbcncxtstagc,oncp|aycr| s compc||cdtosbowa||his cards at
o
ncl
to sobstant|atc tbc b|dd|ng aItcr wb|cb cacb rcma|n|ng player rcv
a| -
b| scardsoncatat|mc|naroondoIp|ayandoncplayer alone is
pp
p
tbc rcspons|b|||ty oIsaIcgoard|ng tbc Ioorcards Ior mtorc verihca|
io
p
,
|Inccdcd. Tb|s|stbcpr|v| |cgcIorwb|cbtbcp|aycrscompc
tc. As
cach
card|srcvca|cd,onccrta|ntyasto|ts |n|t|a|p|accmcnt|sremoveJ, |
|
u-
tbccntropy|s|ncxorab|yrcdoccdto:croonccardatatime.
4I At tbc cnd oIp|ay, a|| tbc cards bavc bccn p|accd, so onccrta| n.
bas bccn c||m|natcd. Tbc cards may bc sbomcd to rcstore a |a|c t !|
max|momcntropyIortbc ncxt dca| and tbc wbo|c procss is rcpca|c.|
aga|nandaga|n.
Lct's g|vcoorcxtratcrrcstr|a| k|b|t:cr a dca| to p|ayandscc |Ibc managc- (o
nav|gatctoatopmatcbpo|ntscorc.
A 1 0 5 4
< K Q 4
K 7
7 6 3 2
8 7 6
D
J
< J 8 5 < 9 7 2
J 9 4 A Q 1 0 8 2
QJ 1 0 5 + A 9 8 4
K Q 9 3 2
< A 1 0 6 3
6 5 3
+ K
or LT s|tt|ng Sootb opcns tbc b|dd|ng w|tb t and Nortb makes
a |trci
n
m|sc. Lt-Wcst arc s||cnt tbroogboot and Wcst |cads a standard
4
"
i P

'
. Lst p|ays tbc 4A, dropp|ng tbc +K. Not|ng tbc advantagcoos
po-i | |
|
oIb|sd|amondbonors,bccont|nocsUobs. Dcc|arcrsccstbat is a o0
i\

r
1
contract andtcn tr|cks arccasy|Itbc0A |sons|dc. Assom|ngsocb
is the !''"
bc|oksIorawaytomakcanovcrtr|ck.
| l4b I me,Fmm|||aMIojmaoo
A
n indi ferent earthlingimme
diately dr
aw
s
trumps and calculates the vacant

c
s

bctwc|veaga|nstten, so he believes these arc the

exact odds |nfavor of

,
CJ be|ng|ntbcEastbanJ nthe third round of hearts, he puts|nthe<
I O,
,

tbc) Downone Canhe blame hi s fai l ure on the theory of vaca

nt
j

c
s

o
1
ccsscnccoImatcbpo|ntsucccss|stotakcadvantage of opcn|ngsprovided

th
c opponcnts wbcn tbcy ar|sc, so |t |s wortb a mOdicumof r|sk toexplorc
| h
,
|c
(
turcs oItbc Jca| |n an attcmpt to makc an ovcrtr|ck. An intergalactic
,(

tbas|camcJnottorosb. Hcrctbcopportun|tyar|scsfor aprcparatory

Aan| o
at|on
oItbc c|obso|t. ET gocs toJummy'sA,Jopp|ngEast'sjack. He
(u
||
(
thirJ c|obw|tbtbc

anJgocs todommy|nbcartstomdthc last club

\\ i th
thc
K.
Tbc |scasbcJanJascconJbcarttotbccnab|csdeclarer to
, 't ract
Wcst's |asttrompanJproJocctb|scnJ|ng.
5
4
0 K 7

I 9
0
I
94 0 A Q 1 0
4 4

A 1 0
0 6 5

\ith
spaJcsprovcntobavcbccnsp||tJ- I andtbcc|obs4-4,tbcmostcommon
'l'
l t
ts in tbcrcdso|tsarcg|vcnbc|ow.
Maxi mal lx Likelx Next Most Likelx
W E W E
3 - 1 3 - 1
3 - 3 2 - 4 (0. 75)
0 3 - 5 (0. 8) 4 - 4
4 - 4 4 - 4
Ratio 1 1 5/1 6
'
+
ca
nt
p|accsIor tbc rcd so|tsarc s|x andc|gbt,an cxccss oI2 |ntbc East
` I
f bcansbadnotbccnp|aycd,aJ-Jbcansp||twoo|dbcmorc||kc|ytban

|||t |ntbc rat|ooII to I J. Howcvcr, tworoondsbavcbccnp|ayc

JanJ

th
e
4|s|cdhomtbcdommy|ntbcabovcconhgorat|on,EastIo||owsw|tb
Chpt I0 | DemomoamDcab I 1 49 I
the last low heart and declarer is at the crossroads with only one signifcan
t h
0
outstanding. This is the situation covered by Kelsey's Rule, which follo
ws ,.. "
consequence of the Bayes' Theorem. The odds of thc) being in the East h|
n]
are given by the relati ve weights of the diamond spl i ts. Thus, the ] |s
m
tr,
||kc|y to be in the East hand in the ratio oI 5 against 4. Docs tb|s mean
t
j
+
ETsboo|Jtakctbcbcarthncsscat tb|s |atcstagc' No. Tb|s|sacascwber

;
j
aJj oncttob's||nJKo|capp| |cs.|Iyou canhnJabcttcrplay, make
i t.
Tbcbcttcrp|ay |nbcarts|stbconcwb|cbg|vcstbcbcstcbanccoIy|
,
|J
,

c|cvcn tr|cks. Tbc ca|co|at|on oItbc oJJs Ior tak|ng c|cvcn tr|cks
must .

|nvo|vc tbc d|amonJ so|t, as tbcrc |s tbc poss|b|||ty oI tbc OA bein
g o
ni .|
mak|ngtbcOK aw|nncr.Tbos,cons|Jcr|ngtbcbcartso|t|n|so|at|onis n

tt h
l
concctprocdorc. Hcrc |sa tab|c oItbc probab|c nombcroItr|ckstbat w
i l l l ,
takcn|Idcc|arcrp|aystbcIO,hncss|ngIortbcj ,orp|aystbcA,bopinU r
h
,
OK takcsa tr|ckortbcbcartssp||tJ-J, s| |gbt|yaga|nsttbcoJJs.
$pIIn WeIgbn Im 0 ImA
2 - 4 5/9 1 1 tricks certai n 1 1 tricks ( 1 /2 chance)
4 - 4 1 0 tricks ( 1 /2 chance)
3 - 3 4/9 1 0 tricks (3/8) 1 1 tricks certai n
3 - 5 9 tricks (5/8)
Totals fr 1 1 tricks 5/9 1 3/1 8
Tbcrcso|ts|ntbctab|csbowwbatmostbcobv|oostoanygooJJcc|arcr.thJi l |
acommoncontract, | t | s bcttcrtomakcsorcoIa p|osscorc wb||cpreScML
cbanccIoranovcrtr|cktbantor|skcvcntb|ngonas||gbtaJvantagcin O0L I I I |
ar|skwb|cb| Itakcncoo|d|cadtoam|nosscorc.
As|tbappcns,tbcconcctp|ayoItbcA |s|naccordanccw|tbobh

Ko|castbcJ-Jbcartsp||t|srcprcscntat|vcoItbcmax|momcntropydi str
i
hul l '
oIs|JcsbcIorctbcbcanso|t| sp|aycd. |Itbcopcn|ng|caJbaJbccoa di anwn. l
sotbattwod|amondsandac|obwcrc |ostat tbcbcg|nn|nganJtbctenth
|
'
' '
coo|dcomcon|yhomtbcbcartso|t,|twoo|dbccorrccttohncsscIor
the
\J i|i |
wcrctbcbcstrcma|n|ngcbanccbascJontbc|nIcncdm|nor-so|tJ|str|bc
t| . a
The Changi ng Seascape
W|tunot|nourpoucrR dc|ncumt|sD, ucs|oaU
0C|
acord|ngtoumt|smostmomk.
- Kcn Dcscartcs | I J9- I JOI
cna dcc|arcrmostadapttocbang|ngprobab|||t|cs. Wat|smo
s
t
|' '
attbcstartmaybccomc |nc|cvantaItcrmrtbcr|nIormat|onbasbcco
-'''`
| l50) me, Pom|aMIojmaoo

,
i
s a simple example frm a deal discussed by Hugh Kelsey in Test Your
,1rJ-Rea
ing .
9 5 3 2
D
6
8 A K 1 0 9 6 3
A K J 6 4 3
Q 1 0 9
+ K 4
J 8 3
West Nom ost Wm
1 24' 3 pass
4 pass 5 all pass
1 . Strong j ump overcal l .
'. 1rrh leads tbc4A and cont|nocsw|th thc4K, 5oothdropp|ng thc qoccn as
,kdarcr rfs |ndommy. Thc contract m|ght b madc by sctt|ng op tbc bcan
| | | I . rhc Uuest|onbc|ngthcmost ||kc|ywayoIach|cv|ngth|shappyrcso|tw|th
! n|\rwo entr|cs rcma|n|ng.Tbchcartsmostsp||tc|thcr3-3 orZ-1, 5oncsboo|d
L , nsiJcr thc conscqocnccs oIcach oconcncc. Hcrc arc thc Ioor most ||kc|y
. 1 1 -
t
rih
u
tions oIs|dcs|nordcroIprobab|||tyg|vcnthatspadcssp||t-Z.
II Ill IV
6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2
< 2 - 4 3 - 3 2 . 4 3 - 3
2 - 2 1 . 3 1 . 3 2 - 2
3 - 5 3 - 5 + 4 - 4 2 - 6
^cgh|s 1 8 1 6 1 5 1 2
'\:da
re
r bcg|nsbycash|ngthctophcandmmngath|rdhcarth|gh. IItbc
1 ' ' 1 rls pmvc tobc sp||tZ-1,thcndcc|arcr mostp|ayIorCond|t|on I, rctom|ng
' '
J
um
my w|tb a tmmp and mmng a Ioorth hcan h|gh to cstab||sh thc so|t.
' ''` h
e
mustbopcthatthctmmpsarcsp||tZ-Z, wh|chrcma|nsthcmost||kc|y
n
J
ition.
I f
h
ears
provctobavcbccndca|t3-3, dcc|arcrshoo|dp|ayIorCond|t|onII.
'' "`
i
s t
he
s|toat|on that Kc|scycnv|s|ons. Thc hcarts havc bccn cstab||sbcd,
'' t
he
t
0
mps mostprobab|yarcsp||t1 -3, 5thcconcctprocdorc|storctomto
""

w
itbasccondtmmpandp|ayonhcans,Iorc|ngamhhom5ooth. Now
', t
9
t
r
t
0
mp to dommydraws thc |ast tmmpand hcans prov|dc thc rcqo|rcd
(,trds.
I t
i s
not ncccssantoca|co|atcthcrc|at|vcprobab|||t|csatthctab|c,asonc

o
nly
to
bcawarcoIwh|chcond|t|on|sthcmorc ||kc|y. A3- 1 sp||ty|c|ds
'
t
h
i
r
d
s
tbcnombcroIcomb|nat|onsoIa Z-Z sp||t, whcrcasa Z-sp||ty|c|ds
CmmI0 l DcoDed | l 5l !
one half that for a 3- 5 combination. Tosg Condi tion II is more likely tha
n
Condition IV in the ratio of 4: 3.
Professor Emeri tus J ones Takes a View
Inc|ngrcaon'ssp|,
O tt |sc|car
wavcr|s , |sr|gt .
A|cxandcrIopc | I BB- I 774I
Intb|sdca|wc'||scctbcprocssoIcva|oat|onoIanorma|opcn|ng|cadand
how
|tm|gbtahcctan|n|t|a|p|anoIp|aybascdontbcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs.
IroIcssor Lmcr|tos joncs | Matbcmat|csI |s a wc||-bc|ovcd hgorc o
o
tbc campos, 0ow|ng wb|tc ba|r, capc and canc, bc bas grown |nto b|s m|c o|
ccccntr|co|d codgcr. H|smcmon |saston|sb|ng|yc|car. bc ncvcr Iorgcts the
namcoIano|dstodcntoracardtbatbasbcnp|aycd|nancar||crroond. Hi ,
hrstrcco||cct|onsoIbr|dgcarcasso|atcdw|tbtbcsmc||oI sogarcdra|s|ncookie>,
tbcIcc|oIb|smotbcr'sst|hdrcssonb|scbcck,andtbcsoondoI|aogbtcras youne
w|vcsob||qoc|yta|ksbopattbcwcck|ybomcgamc.
Itwastbcn|gbtoItbctrad|t|ona|Iaco|tyC|obvcrsos5cn|ors5w|ssJcam
joncs was rc||cvcd tbat tbc gorgcoos tw|ns, M|ncna and Margocr|tc ( Earth
5c|cnccsIbadIoroncc|ctb|mandb|s|ong-sohcr|ngpanncrG|nsbcrg( Bus inc''
Adm|n|strat|onIgctonw|tb|tw|tbootah|vo|oosovcrca||. Tbc|rauction wa-
a d|st|||at|onoIa||tbcybad|camcdovcrdccadcs.joncs lNT, G|nsbcrg 3NT:
joncsIass.
Ahcr a pcmncton 'any qocst|ons'' a poot|ng M|nn|c tosscd a |ow|
va|cnt|ncontbcgrccnba|tcands|oocbcdback|nbcrcba|rtosockon a srran.l
oIbcrgo|dcnba|r,ahcrwb|cbtbcIroIcssorwasab|c totomb|sm||attcn
t
i lln
toasoncyoItbcdommy. Hcrcwcrctbccardstbatjoncsbadava||ab|
ctop|n
ahcrtbc|cadoItbcJ.
Jones
K J 7
K 1 0 8
0 A 1 0 8 7 5
4 A Q
D
Ginsbr
A 1 0 5
A 4 2
0 K J 9 6 4
1 0 8
A|| was wc|| - G|nsbcrg bad prov|dcd a ba|anccd band w|tb bono
''
'
'
scattcrcd amongst tbc so|ts. Io||ow|ng tbc bab|t oImany ycars, the
.
.
madcaqo|ckcst|matcoItbcopponcnts'b|ddcnsbapcs. Advcnctoso0`
1
'
l l 5 Z I me, Pom|Iojmam
|
rc
|crrcJ b|s work|ngassompt|onsto rcprcscnt wbat was tbc most ||kc|yonJcr
thc
c|rcomstanccs.
Tbctw|ns bc|dbctwccntbcm scvcnspadcs,scvcn bcarts, tbrccJ|amonds
an
d n|ncc|obs. Ycs,bcandG|nsbcrgbadanoncxp|orcdtcn-carJht|nam|nor,
but
tbcrcwasnotb|ngonosoa| |ntbat. |twasratbcroddtbc|cadwasn'tac|ob,
muscd
joncs, bot tbc aoct|on bad g|vcn notb|ng away |n tbat rcgard. Tc
ma
x|mom nombcroIposs|b|c comb|nat|ons |n tbc so|tswoo|d occor w|tb tbc
c|osc
sp||tsoI4-J, 4-J,Z- l and J-4 rcspcct|vc|y, soas w|tb tbcj |gsawpo::|csoI
his |on
g-goncyootb, |twasjosta mattcroIhtt|ngtbcp|cccstogctbcrtoIorma
c
ohcrcntp|ctorc.
ll lll N
West East West East West East West East

3 4 4 3 4 3 3 4

4 3 4 3 3 4 4 3

2 2 2 1 2

5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5
Hv assomcd tbat cvcn toay's Icma|c stodcnts Io||owcd tbcsc scns|b|c ro|cs
aea|nstJNT l I |cadhomyoor|ongcstso|t,and ZI prcIcramajorovcram|nor
o|equa| |cngtb.
So Hands I and | | | wcrc m|cd oot |mmcd|atc|y. Hand || was downgradcd
|ecauscM|ncnacoo|dcqoa||y wc||bavc|cdaspadc. |twascasytodcdocc tbat
the ost||kc|ysbapcswcrcrcprcscntcdbyHands|V.
||aspadcbadbcnM|nn|c'scbo|cc, Hands | | | woo|d bcappropr|atc.Tbos,
t f aajorso|twcrc|cd, tbcs|ng|ctond|amondwasmost||kc|yto||cw|tbMogs.
If d c|obbadbccn|cd, tbcnjoncswoo|dassomctbcs|ng|ctond|amond|ay|ntbc
hand w|tbtbc|ongcstso|t| Hands1 ) . Tbostbcopcn|ng|cad|noncso|t|cadsto
0 +ssompt|onabottbcd|str|bot|onoIcards |notbcrso|ts.
)oncs'p|anwastor|dctbcbcantob|sk|ng,bop|ngtok||| Mogs'potcnt|a|
ntna|ongtbcway. Hcwoo|donb|oktbc0j onb|s0Asoastobcab|cto|cad
the su|tIoort|mcshomb|sband,tak|ngcarcm|notcoItbcd|scardsonb|s|ch.
"h+tagrcatadvantagc|t|swbcnp|ay|ngJNT|stobcab|ctop|ayhvcroonds
'''
4su|tw|tbootb|ngIorccdtomakcad|scardoncsc|I,tboogbt]oncs. Aspadc
n
c
c andc||m|nat|onwoo|dbIo||owcdbycndp|ay|ngM|nn|c|nbcartsIora
|.
r
cc
Jrctom|ntob|sc|obtcnacc. Mak|ngmc|vc tr|ckswoo|dnotbcasorpr|sc.
|
r
onZ9HCIandnosbonagc,|cavctbattotbcw||d-cycdopt|m|sts.
)oncsa|wayssomcswbat|smost||kc|yontbccv|dcnccsoIar,botbr|dgc|s
1

c
oIonccna|nn,wb|cb|swbycvcnbcsomct|mcsgcts|twrong,atwb|cb
|
' "
cs
hcrcca||sIorconso|at|ontbcwordsoIb|sIavor|tcpoctqootcdabovc.
Cmm I0 | DemoamDed | l 5J |
A| mfor the Harbor, but look for the Shoals
Lookcc touLap,scccrc tougo.
- TbomasTosscr| I JZ7- I JBOI
Inth|sdca|wcsha||scchow br|dgc |og|c most prcva|| whcn a cho|cco
I-.,.
prcscnts|tsc|I. A|thooghbb'sb||ndKo|csoggcstsp|ay|ngw|ththcodds,|t
do
es
notprcc|odc p|ay|ng w|th sk|||. ncb kthat avo|dsg|v|ngthcbadadv|cco
f
p|ay|ng aga|nst thcodds |sF|m0M|sws by Lr|cjanncrstcn. Thc prob
|c
s
arcsct |nsoch a waythatthc rcadcr |s not askcd to |ok Ior ccccntr|c -.,.
|n thc namcoIsaIcty,mthcrthc rcadcr |s|nstmctcdas tohow toavo|dbc|n
dcIcatcdwhcnthccardsarcp|accdw|th|nnorma|cxpcctat|on. Thccmpbas|s|s
onIorcs|ghtandavo|danccoIawkwards|toat|ons. Tm|ng|sohcnoIthccsscnce,
asonthcIo||ow|ngdca|.
Nom
A Q 9
V 9 6 4
A 8 7 2
9 6 2
D
W
K 8 3
V J
K Q 5
+ A K J 8 5 3
West Nom ost Su
1 +
pss l NT 2V 3V
pass 4+ pass
all pass
Wcst|cadsthc<3, |owhoman honor, Lastw|nn|ngthcA. Thcncxtbca
rt
|smhcd by dcc|arcr, who |aysdown thc 4A to hnd thatWcsthas bcg
on
w|th
a|| Ioor tmmps, 4l 071. To makc h|s contract, dcc|arcr most ||m|th|s t

|
|oscntoonc,wh|chmcanshcmoststr|pWcstoIh|soots|dccardsandchccta
0
cndp|ay, Iorc|nga tmmp|cad |ntoancstab||shcd tcnacc. Howshoo|ddcc|a
tc
r
p|anthcp|ay' Lt's|okatthcmost||kc|ysp||tsIorthcdcIcndcn'hand
s,
g|vc
0
thatwcknowLastwasdca|t s|xhcansandnoc|obs.
( 1 54 ) me, Pom|||Injm
Co
mbi nations c
ll
+ 4 - 3
02 - 4 (0. 75)
0. 75C
lll
2 - 5 (0.6)
0 4 - 2 (0.75)
0. 45C
1r i
s morc||kc|ytbatWcstbo|dsat|casttbrccspadcstbantbatbcbo|dscxact|y
t
wo
J|a
monds,bowcvcr,tbcrc|sadangcrtbatnccdstobcant|c|patcd. Dcc|arcr
ruf
s atb|rdbcart, str|pp|ngWcstoIb|s|astbcart,andmayp|ayohtbrccroonds
.:|
spaJcsw|tbsomcbopcIorasocccssm|p|aydown|ntbatso|t,bottbcnbcbas
r
u
H tod|amondsandbopcIoramrtbcrsocccssm|p|aydown|ntbatso|t.A||

.
1
es
wc|||ICond|t|onIapp||cs,bottbcprocdorcIa||sIorCond|t|onsIIandI | | ,
as
Wcstmaymh|nandcx|tsaIc|y.
)
anncrstcn'sadv|cc|stop|ayond|amondshrst. Dc|arcrnccdsWcsttobo|d
at |casttbrccd|amondsanyway. Cond|t|on II rcprcscntsIa||orc. IIbcdocsbo|d
three
J|amondsandtbrccspadcs,tbcstr|pw|||work. Howcvcr,|IWcstbo|dsjost
two spadcs,dcc|arcrgctsancxtracbancc. Hcrc|stbcm||dca|.
7 4
<; K 1 0 3
0 J 9 6 4
Q 1 0 7 4
+ A Q 9
< 9 6 4
0 A 8 7 2
9 6 2
D
+ K 8 3
< J
0 K Q 5
+ A K J 8 5 3
+ J 1 0 6 5 2
<; A Q 8 7 5 2
0 1 0 3
-
As
)anncrstcnpo|ntsoot,tbcadvantagcoIp|ay|ngond|amondshrst|stbatwbcn
WcstbasIoord|amonds, tbcIoortbd|amondcanbcmhcd |ntbcSootbband,
a ncccssan movc |n tbcc||m|nat|onprocss|Cnd|t|on I | | I . Nowspadcscan
p|
=ycd.Wcstmostmhtbctb|rdroond,andtbccndp|ay|schcct|vc. IILast
|
o||ows to a|| tbrcc d|amonds |Cnd|t|on 1 ) , 5 tbrcc roonds oIspadcs can bc
||avcd,tbcnac|ob |shncsscd|ntoWcst,wbobbccnstr|ppcdoIcardsoots|dc
t
0ps.
Tb|s cxamp|c sbows bow dcc|arcr most p|an tbc p|ay |og|ca||y and not
rc|
v c
nt|rc|y on probab|||n to scc b|m tbroogb, bowcvcr, |Idcc|arcr wcrc to
a
ssu
c
tbat tbc most ||kc|y d|str|bot|on app||cd |Cond|t|on 1 ) , bc woo|d p|ay
CmmI0 l DmoamDeab I l 5 5 I
as Jannersten suggests because the 4- di amond spl i t gives hi m the extra chanc
e
noted. Playing spades frst is too commi ttal. Declarer benefts from awaren
c
s
attached to the most l ikely ( and ultimately successful ) scenario.
Odds and Evens
I t |sahadpmntmtadm|tsnomod|jcat|on.
|ob| |||osSyros| I stccntoryBC)
A||tt|cknow|cdgccanbadangcroostb|ng,andoItcncxpcr|cnccdbridEe player,
arca||tokccntopassonwbattbcytb|nktbcyknow. Tbcmostcommoncm
r
|sam|sapp||cat|onoItbcammodds.
Tbcsccnc.4.0a. m. |na|argcmctropo||tanbosp|ta|. Agr|::|cdKsurgc
1
1
n
bas sotorcd tbc |ast oItbc kn|Ic woonds hom tbc m|dn|gbt rosb oIdomes
t k
v|o|cncc and makcs b|s waydown tbc qo|ct and d|m corr|dors, now devoid ol
norscs,totbcdoton'|oongcIorawc||-dcscrvcdbrcakbcIorctbcdawnushers |o
|tsownsctoIcr|scs. Hc|sbop|ngtop|ayacoop|coIbandsoIbr|dgc,botwhco
bcan|vcsbchndsagamca|rcadyondcmaybctwccnIooroItbcyoonger doctor,,
nov|ccsand|nd|hcrcntp|aycrs.Hcbasbccng|v|ngtbcm|nstroct|on|nthe hncr
po|ntsoItbcgamcandbasIoondtbcmtobcstodcntswbocancas||yabsorh thl
convcnt|ona|w|sdombccxpoonds. Sobcs|tsdown tok|b|t: andadvise. The
hrstdca|g|vcsb|manopporton|tytocxpoondontbcN|nc-NcvcrKo|c. 1| -
tbcs|toat|oncvokcdbyjanMattbcwIarbcr, M. D. |nb| sart|c|c'DoctorWho
wb|cbappcarcd|ntbc]o|yZ0|ssocoITmngcWol.
Nom
6
<: A 1 0 9 8 7 6
1 0 8 7
1 0 9 4
D
W
A K 1 0 2
<: 5 4 3
A K Q
+ A K J
I l 5 I rmge,From|||aMIojmaoo
Possible Aucton
2+ 2
3NT 4C
4NT D0$$
c
outh
dcc|arcdtbccontractoI4NTasarcso|toIsomcconms|on|ntbcaoct|on
.n
whicb tbc rcadcr |s not cn||gbtcncd. It |s amos|ng to spcco|atc ovcr wbat
hran
c
h oIstandard b|dd|ng tbcprotagon|stsmaybavcstomb|cd, andaposs|b|c
auction |ssbownbcrc.
As
wcarcsoohcn|nIomcdaItcraporaoct|on, tbcp|ay'stbctb|ng. Tbc
11pening
|cad |s tbc 4J, tbc 4 hom Last b|ng takcn by dcc|arcr's acc.
the
hrst-roondhncssc |nbcarts, Lasttakcstbc tr|ck w|tb tbcKahcrWcstbas
|
| |
owcd w|tbtbcZ. Tbcp|ayoItbck|ngba|vcstbcprobab|||tytbatLasta|so
holds thc qoccn. Dcc|arcr takcs tbc spadc rctom and p|aysa sccond roond oI
hearts towardsdommyon wb|cbWcstp|aystbcj.Tbat ba|vcs tbcprobab|||ty
that Wcstbo|dstbcqoccn. ascdontbcKo|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc,Sootbdcc|dcs
h)goopw|tbtbcA,w|tbtbcrcso|ttbatbcdmpstbcnows|ng|cton.
Attbc po|nt oIdcc|s|on, dcc|arcr most cbosc bctwccn two |n|t|a| ||cs oI
the
c
ards:
Weu
C QJ 2
ost
C K
Weu
c J 2
ost
C K Q
The gu|danccaotborIarbcrohcn|stop|ayIortbcdropontbcbas|soItbc0mm
ud
d
s. Asorgcon'sstrongso|t|scxccot|on,notd|agnos|s. Hc tc||sdcc|arcrtbat
the Ko|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc|snomorctbana'sbon-bandwayoIrcmcmbcr|ng
the 0mmodds. ' Tb|sv|cw|smostpcco||aras|t|mp||cstbattbc0mmoddsarc
the govcm|ngIactor,acommoncnoogbbackwardv|cwoI||tt|c va|oc. Kcadcrs
,
f
thi
s
bokknowtbattbcwonboItbcKo|coIKcstr|ctcdCbo|cc||cspr|mar||y
0 i ts |mp||cat|onsIortbcp|ayoItbccards.
Ea
c
h oItbctworcma|n|ngs|toat|onsbasa||owcdIortwop|aos|b|cscqocnccs
uf p
lay
. W|tbcqoa||ty |ntbcnombroIscqocnccs,tbcprobab|||t|cs|ntbcbcan
ui t
Jc
pcnd on tbc d|str|bot|onoItbc cxtcma| m|nor-so|tcards. Ycs,anotbcr

||||cat|onoIKc|scy'sKo|cwbcrctbcrc|sj ostonccardrcma|n|ngtobcp|aycd,
an
d th
at a s|gn|hcant card. Tbcqocst|on ar|scs, bow can onc dcc|dc on tbat
''
i
Lcoonc, dcc|arcrcan'tdcc|dc |Ibc basn't attcmptcd tod|scovcrbow
'

'
|norso|tsarcd|v|dcd,sobcmostIa||backontbcoddstbatrc|atctoastatc
I
,
|
ax|momonccna|nty. Tbc wbo|cpo|ntoItbc approacb totbcdca| |stbat
|
""|
|nIormat|onsboo|dbgatbcrcdbcIorctbccr|t|ca|p|ay|ntbcbcanso|t|s
4ci
Jc
d.
Tbcrcarcc|rcomstanccswbcrc|t|sconccttotakctbchncssc.

cc|arcrrca||:cstbatspadcsarc sp||t 4-4. TbcNonb-Sootb bandsbavca

4
,
Jt
ibot|onoIs|dcs5-9--,5 tbcdcIcndcn's|dcsarcB-4-7 7,an|ntcrcst|ngsct
Cmm I0 l DcoDed | l 5 7 I
o|s|Jcs w|tb a tota| tr|c| coonto|scvcntccn. Tbcmost|||c|yd|v|s|onso|s|dcs
|orWcst-Last,g|vcntbatWcstbas|o||owcJtw|cc|nbcarts, arc.
ll lll
4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4
2 - 2 2 - 2 3 . 1 (2/3)
0 3 - 4 0 4 - 3 0 3 - 4
4 - 3 3 - 4 3 - 4
L L (2/3)C
N V
4 - 4 4 - 4
3 . 1 (2/3) 3 . 1
(2/
3)
0 2 . 5 (3/5) 0 4 . 3
4 - 3 2 . 5
(3/5)
(2/5)C (2/5)C
Thc nombcn |nbrackcts arc thc hact|on oIcomb|nat|ons rc|at|vc to those |o
thcmostcvcnsp||ts. Thctota|nombcroIcomb|nat|ons,C, |snot |mponant,
as |t |s thc rat|os that cntcr thc ca|co|at|ons. I|ay|ng Ior thc drop |s a stroo
c
Iavor|tcs|nccthccomb|nat|onsIoraZ-Zsp||t|CascsIandI I I Iarootnombcrthe
comb|nat|onsIor a3- 1 sp||t|CascsIII-VI. Iorcn||ghtcnmcnt,dcc|arcrshould
p|ayonthcm|nonbcIorc tack||ngthchcarts,bcg|nn|ngw|ththc^, thcOK,
thc%, thchnthcanhncssc, thcn thcKbcIorc mak|ngthc cr|t|ca|second
roondp|ay|nthchcanso|t. HccanobscncthcscqocnccoI p|aybythcdc|cnJcr
|nthcm|norso|ts,hav|ngdonch|sbsttoh|dch|s|ntcnt|ons. Imsomab|vthct
w|||s|gna| honcst|y h|gh-|ow hom ancvcn ho|d|ng |LI, |ow-h|ghhoman odJ
ho|d|ng(0). Hcrcarcthcpss|b|||t|csIorthchvcd|str|bot|onsg|vcn.
I
0 O - c
c - O
II
0 c - O
O - c
Ill
0 O - c
L - c
W
0 c - O
c - O
V
0 c - C
c - C
IIWcst-LstIo||owoncoIthchnttwooncord|natcdscqocnccs, thcndcc|ar
r
p|aysIorthcdrop|nhcans,bot|Ithcycord|natcthc|rs|gna|s,hcshoo|dfnesse.
IIthc|rscqocnccsarcnoncoIthcabvc,dcc|arcrshoo|dd|scoontthccv|Jcocc
on|csshctmstsoncoIthcdcIcndcnmochmomthanthcothcr.
Know|cdgc oIthc oppncnts' hab|ts |san |mpnant panoIthc gamc. I n
thccnd,dcc|arcrmaymakcthcwrongdcc|s|on,botat|casthc|sgo|nga|onP the
r|ghtpath,yooarcbttcroh|nthc|ongmnadopt|ngarcgo|atcdwayoItb
|nk|oc
that |s sobjcct torchncmcnt mthcrthan rcson|ngtothc0 l odds
on
cvc
^
ocas|on,thosrcdoc|ngyoorana|yt|cmcthostotr|v|a||t|cs.
Hey, Mister, What's Your Rush?
An-t wo din uwo ding slowl-.
- GypsyKoscLcc( 1 91 1 - 1 970)
( ISS ] mc,PmIojm

crc |sanotbcrdca| wbcrcadcc|s|onnccd notbc bascdon tbcapo oJds |I

morc |nIomat|oncanbcgatbcrcdbcIorc tak|ngtbcp|ongc. TcYourOmcs!
sc
ct|onoItbcMayZ0 |ssocoIngcMmanncdca|tw|tbtbcprobab|||t|cs |n
th
cp|ayoIthcIo||ow|ngdca|byaMr. |||SbcmanoIA||cantc.
A 6 4 2
1 0 9 8 4
K 1 0 7
+ 6 5
K J 1 0
V A Q 7
QJ 5
QJ 1 0 4
D
Q 9 8 7
V K 5 3 2
A 6
+ A K 7
5 3
V J 6
9 8 4 3 2
9 8 3 2
Vr. Shcman hadopncd thc Suthhand w|tha b|doI I< and got todcc|arc
thccontmctoINTonaspadc|cad. H|ssucccssm|||ncoIp|aywmtoknokout
|hc4Aandcash thcOA bIorc mnn|ngthcc|ubs,thusmucct|ngWcst|nthc
rcJso|ts-aV|cnnaCup.thcrdcc|arcntok a |os|nghncc |nd|amonds.
0a
v
|domnotcdthatb|||mustrcma|ncontcntcdm|c|yw|thh|sgrcatscorc,as
|hcammodsdonotIavorh|s||ncoIp|ay -thcyarcrough|yB%|nIavoroI
|
|av|ngohthchcanshntthcntak|ngthcd|amondhncssc, |Incccssan,aga|nst
|hcJ%|nIavoroIthcV|cnnaCup.
|romourcar|ytm|n|ng,wcarcd|oumgcdhomp|ay|ngIoraJ-Jsp||twhcn
d
fncssc |sthc a|tcmat|vconthcbas|sthat thcchanccoIa J-J sp||t |sa mcrc
\0% whcrcasthcchanccoIa succcssm| hncssc|sJ0%. Howcvcrp|aus|b|cthat
mavsccm,cxpcr|cnccsontcachcsusthatp|ay|ngIorthccvcnsp||tohcntums
9
utto
havcbcnthcbttcrapproach. Cna|n|ywhcnp|ay|ngohasu|t|nwh|ch
|
0coppncntsho|ds|xcards,thcods|nIavoroIthcJ-Jsp||t|mprovcascach
'
rpo
ncntIo||owssu|t. D thcodsIorthc 3-3 sp||t |noncsu|t|mprovcwhcn
9

cp|aysohad|hcrcntsu|tw|thout |nc|dcnt ' Lct'sscc.

r|an 5cn|org|vcsusa hnccxamp|c |nh|sb k Sp-m-SpCard Fmyin
Srcit
w
hcrcthc0mmodsoImmngoutak|ngtr|p|ctonordoub|ctonarcsccn
;
o
b
csupcr|ortotak|ngahncssc |Hand J7 |nthcb k,d|scusscd |naprcv|oos
:
0ap
tcrI. NowMr.5hcmanprov|dcsarc|atcdcxamp|c|nnotmmpp|aywhcrc

9
ucctc rcp|accs a mhas thc mcans oImanuIactur|ngan cxtra tr|ck. Tcrc
a
re no
Icwcrthan thrcc su|ts that may sp||t 3-3. IIthcy do, thc Iounh su|t |s
:
'9
stra|ncd to sp||t 1-1, dcmonstmt|ng that a|| Ioursu|ts cannot b trcatcd as

aJ
e
p
cndcnt.
Cmm I0 l DmoaDed | l 59 !
|nNT,Jcc|arcrnccJnotncccssar||yJcc|Jcprcmatorc|ywbctbcrornott
o
hncssc. Hcmaybc ab|c top|ay oot tbccarJs |nsocb awayastoJctcrm|ncthe
sp||ts|nbotbb|ack so|ts,soastocst|matctbcprobab|||t|csontbc bas|soI
wh
at
hasbccn|camcdasarcso|t. Vacantp|accsmaybavcaro|ctop|ay. Tbcbc
art
s
canwa|t.
5opposcdcc|arcrknoksootthcA. As|ongasLstdosnotw|nanJp|av
q
d|amondthroogh,hccanp|ayohthcspadcsandc|obstod|scovcrtbattbc
c|u
|s
arc sp||t 2-4 andthcspadcs42. Thcscarcthccardsrcma|n|ngw|tbtbc|c
aJ|n
thcdommyonccthcA |scashcd.
Nor

V Q 7
< QJ
+ Q
D
W

V K 5 3
< A 6
-
Atth|spo|nt,dcc|arcrcancst|matcthcodsbascdonwhathasbcnd|scovcteJ
Hcrcarcthccand|datcsrcgard|ngthcd|v|s|onoIs|dcsbctwccnWcstanJEast:
I ll lll lV V
W- E W- E W- E W- E W- E
4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2
V 3 - 3 V 2 - 4 V 4 . 2 V 1 - 5 V 5 1
< 4 - 4 < 5 - 3 < 3 . 5 < 6 . 2 < 2 - 6
2 - 4 2 - 4 + 2 - 4 2 - 4 2 - 4
L 0. 6C 0. 6C 0. 1 2C 0. 1 2C
C |s thc nombr oI comb|nat|ons ondcr Cm I. Thc rc|at|vc nombe
rb
:|
comb|nat|onsarcshowna|ongthc bttom. Thc tota| nombroIcomb|nati
.n
Iora||d|v|s|onsoIs|dcs|s2. 44C. Thcqocst|on|s,whatarcthc| rc|at|vcI
numher'
oIcomb|nat|ons that Iavor thc d|amond hncssc ovcr p|ay|ng Ior thc
suee
:d
drop' Thcdropworkswhcncvcrthchcartsarc3-3 andthcsqocctctak
cse
f
e
ct
whcncvcrthc|onghcartandthc0K||c|nthcsamchand.
( 160 ) mc,Pom|||aMIojmmo
fi nesse works:
Drop
works:
O.SC + 0. 6C + 0. 1 2C
C + 0. 45C +0. 06C
for a total of 1 . 22C combi nations
for a total of 1 . 5 1 C combi nations
[
hc
drop|sIavorcJ62% to50%, sotbc|nJ|catcJp|ay|s.casbtbcQ. J|scard
|ng
th
crcma|n|ng|owd|amonJ,p|aytotbc0Aandrontbcbcarts|Itbc0Kbasnot
appcarc
J. Anopponcnt dca|t Ioorormorc bcarts a|ong w|tb tbc0K w|||bavc
bccn
sqocc:cd. Notc tbat tbc |nd|catcd p|ay |s |n accordancc w|tb tbc most
l i
kely
d|v|s|onoIs|dcs,CascI.
|n tbc abovc casc, tbc vacant p|accs ava||ab|c Ior rcd cards arc ba|anccd
bct
wccntbcdcIcndcrs,so|t|stobccxpcctcdtbattbc0KbasaJO-JOcbanccoI
bc|ngw|tbc|tbcropponcnt. Tostbchncssccanbcxpcctcdtobcsocccssm||n
10% oItbccomb|nat|ons.
'Tbat's ratbcr rom,' a sympatbct|c rcadcr m|gbt obscrvc, 'tbc por |add|c
-
(artcd oot at B% on a hncssc and bcrc bc bas p|aycd b|msc|Idown to JO%
w|thootbav|ngdoncanytb|ngwortbyoIconv|ct|on. ' Nonccdtoworry,pa|.A||
the
p|ayopt|onsarc st||| |np|acc. T|sroondabotmctbod |s tbc K|ngstrassc
Var|at|on oItbc V|cnna Coop. Tbc d|hcrcnccs |npcrccntagcs arc doc to tbc
|ocrcasc|npart|a|know|cdgconwb|cbtbccst|matcsarcbascd.
Sopposctbat tbcp|aybad rcvca|cd tbat tbcc|obs bavc bccn dca|t Ioorto
VcstandtwotoLast. Ondcr tb|sc|rcomstancc,tbcrcarchvcvacantp|accsIor
rcJcards|n tbcWcstbandandn|nc|n tbcLastband. Tbchncsscmostbcmocb
|ettcrtbanJO%,bottbcn5 mostbtbcp|ayIortbcsqocc:c,as|cngtb|nbcarts
|-a|soIavorcd tobc |ntbc Last band. Hcrc arc tbcposs|b|cd|v|s|onsoIs|dcs
w|thtbc|rnombcnoIcomb|nat|ons.
II Ill I V
W- E W- E W- E W- E W- E
4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2
2 - 4 3 - 3 1 5 4 2 5 1
< 3 - 5 < 2 - 6 < 4 - 4 < 1 - 7 < 0 - 8
4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 2
c 0. 67C 0. 50C 0. 1 4C 0.007C
The
hncsscIor tbc0K soccccdsIor J% oItbc comb|nat|ons, bottbc sqocc:c/
Jni
|st|||ohcrstbcbcttcrcbancc |jostIat7%. Attbctab|c,tbcr|gbtdcc|s|on
:bc rcacbcdbyconjor|ngoptbcmost||kc|yd|v|s|onoIs|dcs |Casc I I and
|

| o
govcmcd by tbc obscnat|on tbat '|Itbc hncssc works, tbcrc |s no nccd
t
u
t
akc
|t',aIavor|tcpbrascohcncncoontcrcd |ntbc bc|ovcd worksoItbc|atc

.
s
Kc|scy.
orcongrato|at|onsto|||Sbcrman,wbobasdcmonstratcdIar-s|gbtcdncss
W
it
h
rcgard to J-J sp||ts. Tbc on|y groonds Ior cr|t|c|sm |s b|s t|m|ng oI tbc
'' "
N
cxtt|mc,|Iyoogatbcrmorccv|dcncc|nordcrtod|stanccyoorsc|IIrom
Cmm I 0 l DemoDed I l l I
rc||anccontbc0por oJJsbcIorctak|ngtbcp|ongc,yoomay|cngtbcntbcgam
e
somcwbat,botyoow|||sbortcntbcpostmortcm |mmcnsc|y.
The Abbot's Gi ant Leap of Faith
Fa|t| sac||cv|nguatyouknowa|n'tso.
MarkTwa|n| I BJJ- I 9I OI
Intbcdchn|t|onoIap|aos|b|cpcrmotat|ontbcrc|sasobjcct|vcc|cmcnt,dcc|arer
most dcc|dc bowoItcna dcIcndcr m|gbt bavc cboscn to p|ay b|s cards |n thc
obscncdordcr. It |snatora| toassomc tbat adcIcndcrwoo|d p|ay |ntbcsa
c
manncr tbat dcc|arcr woo|d bavc cboscn |Ibc wcrc pot |n tbc samc pos|t|oo.
Icrbapsa bcttcrmctbod |stoassomcadcIcndcrwoo|dnotp|ayanbonorcarJ
on|cssbc saw tbat |t was ncccssan todoso. Tb|s sobjcct|vcc|cmcnt was thc
tbcmc bcb|nd a bomoroos ston by Dav|d |rd, Tm Aabt's Ckv Dcdmt|aa,
wb|cbappcarcd|ntbcjoncZ0|ssocoItbcACLngcu|kon. Hcrc|sthc
m||dca|.
4 K 2
J 9 4 3
K J 5 2
+ K 9 3
Q 1 0 7 5 3
D
J 8 6 4
A 8 2 K 7 5
7 4 9 8 6
QJ 5 1 0 7 4
A 9
Q 1 0 6
A Q 1 0 3
+ A 8 6 2
Weat Nom oat Su
1 NT
ptt 2+ ptt 2
ptt 3NT al l ptt
Wcst|cdtbc4J. Wbcntbcdommycamcdow,tbcaotbor|tat|vcAbbot,H
u
g'1
Yorkc-Sm|tb,coo|dscctbatb|son|ycbancctomakcn|nctr|ckswastogct
u
|ntbcc|obso|t. Hcwon |nbandand p|aycd a c|obtotbc49, |os|ng to^'`
( 162 | mge, Pom|||aMIojmom

1 0. A spade rctom c|carcd tbc so|t, wb|cb was sccn to bavc bccn dca|t J-4.
O
n tbcp|ayoItbc4K,Wcstdroppcd tbc4Q,andnowdcc|arcrbad todccidc
,
hctb
crornottop|ayEastIortbcrcma|n|ngc|obbonor,tbc4j . botnotqo|tc
.pr^tbcdcc|s|onnccdbcmadcon|yaItcrEastbasIo||owcdtotbctb|rdroond
,|c|obs.

cIorc tbc cr|t|ca| p|ay, dcc|arcr sboo|d gathcr as moch |nIormat|on as

|
oss|b|c by p|ay|ng oh thrcc roonds oId|amonds cnd|ng |n dommy. Wcst |s
fll
u
nd tohavcbccndca|ttwod|amonds,5thcs|toat|onbo||sdowntotwoma|n
|
,ssib|||t|cs.
Il
W E W E
S
p
ad
es 5 4 5 4
Diamond
s 2 3 2 3
Heart
s 3 3 4 2
Cl ubs 3 3 2 4
Tc probab|||t|cs Ior thc c|ob sp||ts arc rc|atcd to thc sp||ts |n thc hcart so|t,
hut no|nIormat|on |sd|rcct|yava||ab|c,ashcamcannotbp|aycdw|thsaIcty.
A J-J bcart sp||t | twcnty comb|nat|onsI |s Iavorcd ovcr a 1-Z sp||t |hhccn
cob|nat|onsI|nthcmt|ooI1. J. Thus,Iorthc8|atcdc|ubs,thcodsarc1.J
in|avoroItbcJ-Jsp||t. Th|srcpmscntsthcmt|ooIthccxc|us|vcvacantp|accs.
Howcvcr,tbcscoddsdonottakc|ntoaccoontthcp|ay|nthcc|obso|t,wh|ch|s
zovcmcdbybaycs'Thcorcm.
The Plausible Plays and Vacant Places
Havinggathcrcd thc |nIomat|onconccm|ngthcsp||t |n thc d|amondso|tand
maJcadcdoct|onhomthat,thcdcc|arcr|s |naps|t|ontop|aythcth|rdroond
of c|obs,towh|chLstIo||owsw|ththc|astrcma|n|ng|owc|ub. Lct's|okatthc
r|av
to tbc cr|t|ca|po|nt. 5oppsc thcdcIcndcn had p|aycd thc|rc|obs |ntb|s
o
r
d
e
r: 4J -
+1 0; 4
4,+
7
- '
1ccomb|nat|onsthatcoo|dg|vcr|sctoth|sscqucnccarcasIo||ows.
Wes
+ QJ 5
4 Q 5

+1 0 7 4
+ J 1 0 7 4
4 choices
4 choices
Plausible Plays
East: 7 or 4 & West: Q or J
East: J or 1 0 & East: 7 or 4
^

um
|ngthatadcIcndcrwoo|dnotp|ayanhonorun|cssrcqu|rcdtodo5, thc
'
|

ecdscqocnccoIp|aysbcomcsamndomcho|ccbctwccnIoorpcrmotat|ons.
T
e
rcrcma|nj osttwoposs|b|||t|cs,oncdcr|v|nghomaJ-Jsp||t, thcothcrhom
`
7
sp||t.Whcnthcth|rdroondoIc|obs|sp|aycdandLstIo||owsw|thtbc+
7
,
CmmI0 l DcoDed l l J |
thccr|t|ca|po|nt |srcachcJ atwh|chaJcc|s|onmostbcmaJcastowbctbe
r
|.I
p|acc thcJ |nthcEast hanJor|nthcWcsthanJ.
Th|s s|toat|on |scovcrcJby Kc|scy's Ko|c. whcn jost onc carJ rcma|os
|.l
bc p|aycJ anJ|t|sas|gn|hcantcarJ, thcprobab| || tyo|thc|ocat|ono|tbat
\arJ
|src0cctcJ |ntbcnombcro|concnt vacant p|accs. Tbcrcarc s|x vaca
nt
||ac.
rcma|n|ng |n cacb dc|cnJcr's banJ to accommodatc s|x bcans anJ s|x
c| u|,,
Lct'stracctbccvo|ot|onoItbcvacantp|accsastbcc|obso|t|sp|aycJ,w|th
t
|
d|amondssp||tt|ngZ-JorJ-Z.
Iomonds23 Iomonds32
W E W E
I nitially 6 6 5 7
Afer Round 1 5 5 4 6
Afer Round 2 4 4 3 5
During Round 3 ? 3 ? 4
W|tbd|amondssp||tZ-J, attbcpo|nt|ntbcp|aywbcrcLastIo||owsw|th t|m.l
c|ob,tbcoddstbatWcstbo|dstbc4j|stbcrat|ooItbcvacantp|accsrcma|oi n:.
namc|y4. J. Tb|s|stbcrat|ooItbccardcomb|nat|ons|ntbc| ontoochcJIha(|
so|t, tbccxc|os|vcvacantp|accs. |rov|dcdtbattbcKc|scyconJ|t|onsarem| .
tbcconcntandcxc|os|vcvacant p|accsg|vcancxactdctcm|nat|ono|the o,J,J ,
attbct|mc oIdcc|s|on. IItbcd|amond so|twasIoond to bavc sp||tthrc H
tbcWcstbandandtwo|ntbc Last, tbcrcwoo|d ban|mba|ancc|nthc\LH
p|accsassbownabvc5tbattbcrat|ooItbcvacantp|accsg|vcstbcoJJsof +
tbat tbcj | |csw|tbLast,j osttbcrcvcncoItbcoddswbcnd|amonJss
|
| |t . i
Kcmcmbcr tbat Kc|scy's Ko|c app||cs on|y wbcn tbc nombcr oIp|aos|b|c p| at
basrcacbcdcqoa||tyIortbcrcma|n|ngcardcomb|nat|ons.
Subjectivity and Probabi l ity
Djcdsnotcom|stm|n|y~mcvcnmrgc|yoj
jatan mppn|ng. Itcom|sum|n|yoj0stm
ojtoudutat|sjmcva|ou|ngtromonc'sma.
- MarkTwa|n| I BJJ- I 9I 0I
|b||osopbcrsargocovcrtbcsobjcct|vcnatorcoIprobab|||ty. Dcsca
ns'opi
'

wastbatbomanscanbtboogbtoIasact|ngmccban|ca||y. MarkTwatnt
h
. .
oItbc boman bra|n as an cnat|c mccban|sm ovcr wb|cb |ts posscss
o

h
'

contro|. Modcm
sc|cnt|sts concc|vc oI tbc bra|n as a por|y
pr
o
g
r
an
1
1
1
'
1'
compotcr,ak|odgc. II|ntbcabovcdca|tbcdcIcndcrsactaccord|n
gto
t
h
'

| l ) me, Pm|||aMIojm
,
o
otp|ay|ngac|obbonoron|css|t|sncccssarytoJoso,tbcyarcact|ngb| |nJ|y
|
o
J
mccban|ca| Iasb|on,noton||kcancar|y br|Jgc-p|ay|ngcomputcr. T|s |s
:h

or|g|n oIbb's | |nd Ko|c. T|s |Jca co|nc|Jcs w|tb tbc assompt|on tbat
:h
c
ho
man |s act|ng w|tb|n tbc contcxt oImax|mom onccrta|nty. | nJccJ, wc
p 6
omtbcbandd|agramtbattbccardsarcp|accdaccorJ|ngtotbcmax|ma||y
| ikc
|y
J|str|bot|on.
M
ocb
oItbc bomor |n tbc aIorcmcnt|oncd art|c|c dcr|vcs Irom dcc|arcr's
.i-
-c
mpt|ontbatWcstwoo|da|wayscbosctosp||tb|sbonorshom+ Jwbcn
,t
c|
ub
was
p|aycd towards dommy. It |s a common tcndcncy to assomc tbat
,
opp
onc
nt |orpartncrI woo|d takc tbc act|on tbat yoo yoorsc|Iwoo|d bavc
,h
o-cn |n
tbc samc c|rcomstanccs, wbcrcas |t |s morc j ost|hab|c |n tbcory to
i-
sc
mc tbc
p|aycrwoo|d takc tbc act|on tbat tbc major|ty oIdcIcndcn |n tbc
re
lJ
woo|dtakc. Tbcrcarcs|toat|onswbcrconcmostj odgctbcact|ong|vcntbc
|o
owntcndcncyoIanopponcnt,bcncctbcsobjcct|vcc|cmcntprcva||s.
Tc Abbot's g|ant|capoIIa|tb,wb|cb0|cs |ntbcIacc oItbccv|dcnccoI
many ycarsoIp|ayaga|nsttb|span|co|aropponcnt,|stbatWcstknowscnoogb
i|octcardcomb|nat|onstoscc tbat tbc49 |ntbc dommy |sa s|gn|hcantcard
that adcctsb|scbo|ccs. W|tbba|anccd vacant p|accs, tbcAbbot'sconcctp|ay,
| he bo|Js tbc 4AI 0|n band, |s to hncssc tbc 49 on tbc hrst roond, |n tb|s
wJy p|ck|ngopQ-j-x|ntbcWcstbandIorno|oscr,botw|tboottbc4I 0,togo
u w|tb tbc 4K. Tbosbynotsp||tt|ng b|s bonon, Wcst |s |n chcctp|ay|ngb|s
eartocrIortbc4I 0. Tbat|stbctbcon. Inpract|cc,manyp|aycrsw|||p|ay|ow
.juick|yw|tbootmocbtboogbt.
To g|vc b|gb mgard to an oppncnt's jodgmcnt |s a nob|c stand, bot tbc
Abbot'sb|ggcst m|stakc. Hcomcd tbatWcstwoo|d sp||tb|sbonorsontbc
hrst round |Ibcbc|d%5, 5 hcp|aycdLtIor tbc4j andIa||cd tom|h||b|s
contact. Aga|nstancxpnWcst,bcm|gbtbavcbccnconcct|nb|sassompt|on.
Therc |sasccondbomoroosaspccttotbcston. Asbcdocsnotbo|dtbc4I 0,
t he Abbot'sbcstp|ay|stogoopw|tbtbc4K|n|t|a||yandattcmpttorontbc49
' the wayback,kccp|ngtbctcnaccoIA-BIorahna|hncssc.
1|scxamp|csbowstbatprobab|||ty|snotcnt|rc|yaco|dsc|cncc. ncmost
mclud
e c
ons|dcrat|onoItbcbr|dgcpsycbo|ogybcb|ndtbcp|ays. IIoncassomcs
t hat
Wcstsomct|mcsw|||sp||tb|sbononandsomct|mcsw|||not,onccanass|gn
l
robab|||tytob|sobscncdp|ay. Inpmct|ccattbctab|c,oncw|||bavctogocss
|i
'

oodandc|tbcrapp|yab||ndro|coradopttbcAbbot's|capoIIa|tb.
Better
a Bad Map Than No Map

oI
dcc|arcr p|ay as cqo|va|cnt to dr|v|ng |n onknown tcrr|tory w|tb a
`
|
'
hy
map. Tbc map mprcscnts part|a| know|cdgc, somc oIwb|cb may bc

'
'
|
'
and
|cad to a wrong conc|os|on. nc dcc|dcs on a rootc w|tb an cnd
Cmm I0 l DemoarmDeab | l 5 I
|n v|cw, bot onc |ooks Ior |anJmarksa|ong tbc way, bc|ng prcparcd to cba
ng
e
d|rcct|onwbcnappropr|atc. Atahna|Iork|ntbcroad,wcmakcaJcc|s|onbaseJ
onwbatwcbavc|camcda|ongtbcway. Hav|ngaIao|tymap|snotasgooJ
as
+
tota||y rc||ab|cmap,bot|t|s bcttcrtoIo||owtbcmaptbantoIo||owonc's
no
se
|na statcoItota| |gnorancc. AsIaras dcc|arcr p|ay |sconccmcd, oorgcncr
+|
approach|sasIo||ows.
l I Dctcrm|ncthcmost||kc|yd|v|s|on|nthcso|t|cd,
ZI 5kctchootthcmost||kc|yd|v|s|onoIs|dcs,tak|nga||so|ts|nto
cons|dcrat|on,
JI Gathcrasmoch|nIormat|onas| t |ssaIctodo,
1I Fostponcacr|t|ca|dcc|s|ontothc|astposs|b|cmomcnt,
5I Iavor thc d|v|s|on oI s|dcs that prov|dcs thc most card
comb|nat|ons w|th a|| so|ts|nc|odcd on|css thcdcIcndcrs' p|ays
|nd|catcothcm|sc.
Descartes Was Understandably i n a Bad Mood
It unecessar R h R surs oneself always ;
0occupation ougt R lt m kgm life.
- QoccnChr|st|naoI5wcdcn | l Z- l B9I
Dcscartcs woo|d bc at homc |nthc modcm wor|d oIart|hc|a| |ntc|||gcncc anJ
programmab|crobts. Hcwoo|d|ovcD|sncy|and,ash|sv|cwwasthatnatorci-
csscnt|a||ymcchan|ca|.ncoIh|sIamoosd|ctomswas,'Whcnthcswa||ows|cavc
Far|s |nthc spr|ng thcy act ||kc c|oks', to wh|chQoccnChr|st|naoISweden
tokcxccpt|on. Imag|nc thcsccnconcco|d,w|ntnmom|ng|n5tockbo|in
l 50asDscartcsattcndsHcrMajcsty|noncoIh|saccostomcdcar|ymoring
aod|cnccs.
'Mons|cor,'Chr|st|na says, 'do yoo scc that jcwc|-cncmstcd cocko
c|oc|'
Dyooagrccthat|t|s|nhncwork|ngordcr''
'YoorMajcsty, I can scc c|car|y |t |s |n pcncct work|ng ordcr
J.O
7
thc mom|ng cxact|y, a nombcr wh|ch |ndcc|ma| Iorm |s pcrhaps som
r|s|oc
|\
d|v|s|b|cbyJ. Amostcxcc||cntc|ok-woo|dthatmy |ntcma|work|ngs
were
asrcgo|ar.'
'Mons|cor, th|s |smypo|nt. Ihavckcptc|oscwatchonthatc|okIorthtcr
ycanand|t|sycttoprodoccanohspr|ng. Haha.'
'A||thcmorc rcgrcttab|cthcnthatYoorMajcstywasnotprcscntcdwi
t
h
'
pa|r.'
[ 166 ! me,Pom|||aMIm
CHAPTER11
HcAcbL7HcHN
Happ0m|saprar R mytcnou.
homHann|aa|byIb|||ppcDcsponcs( l 51- l 0I
| |
You Want to Play l i ke Zia
- -
- ..

`
`

Zia
Mabmo has a rcpotat|on m an |mag|nat|vc p|aycrwbo makcs wondroos
pla
ys
tbatarcm|sscdbyb|soppncnts. Wcdonottb|nkoIb|masabcancoontcr
obs
essed w|tbprobab|||t|cs.5omct|mcss|mp|ytak|ngtbc||ncoIp|aytbat|smost
r
mba
b|ctosoccccdmayappcarmag|ca|,astbcIo||ow|ngdca|dcmonstratcs.
Asrcponcd|ntbcjanoanZ05 |ssocoImcMagaz|nc,dor|ngtbccontcst

tbc Z01 LcdcrcrTropby, |a Mabmodwon tbc awardIor tbcbcst-p|aycd

" Iorb|spcrIomanccontbcIo||ow|ngdca|. Wbcn |tappcarstbat a saIcty
P
l
a
y |s
ava||ab|c|nvo|v|ngp|ay|ngohatopbonorbcIorchncss|ng|naso|t,onc
T
st
bccarcm| not todcstroy tbc ||ncsoIcommon|cat|on on wb|cb tbc ma|n
'
h
+n
ccrc||cs. Irobab|||tycanboscdtocomparctbctwo||ncsoIp|ay.
CmpmI I l HmEnFmy0HaM | l 7 |
QJ 1 0 7 6 4 3
< J 3
< 2
+ J 9 2
A K 5
A 9 8 7 4
< K 6 4
4 K 8

< Q 1 0
< A Q 1 0 8 7
+ A 1 0 7 6 5 3
West Nom ost
pass
4. db |
7< al l pass
9 8 2
< K 6 5 2
< J 9 5 3
Q 4
TbrccoIhvccxpcrtpa|rsb|dtotbcgrands|amdcsp|tcWcst'sdcv|||sbpreemption,
boton|yonc,Z|a,madctb|rtccntr|c|s. Dcc|arcnwontbcspadc|cad|n:

--..
andcons|dcrcdtbc|rcbanccs. |raycrsmaybohcrcd|notbcrd|rcc|rcostancc.
bot cxpcrtsrc|y|argc|y on ncccssary assompt|ons. IInot |n a ||asb tbcn soon.
tbcywcntaItcrtbcc|obs,assom|ngaJ-Zsp|tandmaybavcbccnsorpr|scJlOfn,
l
Wcstbo|d|ngtbctb|rdc|ob,ncccss|tat|ngamhw|tbtbc0K|ntbcdoy. v
qocst|onattb|spo|ntwasbowtop|aytbctromps.
Cons|dcr|ngtbcd|amonds|n|so|at|on,tbc|mba|anccoIvacantplaces a|
tbc I -4sp||tmorc|||c|ytbantbcZ-Jsp||tbya J.4marg|n. Afrther bopcis that
Wcstbo|dsat|castoncbcartsotbatdcc|arcrcanma|ctwop|ays|ntrumps In
|u
tbcdommy. Tb|s|snotan|ndcpcndcntassompt|on,astbcbcartsp||t|srefccf,
l
|n tbc d|amond sp||t. IItbc b|dd|ng |s to b bc||cvcd, tbcsc arc tbc
rele\'<ltlt
d|str|bot|onsoItbcso|tswbcrcon|ytbcrcdso|tsmattcr.
ll
7 - 3 7 - 3
2 . 4 1 . 5 (0.4)
< 1 4 (0. 5) < 2 3
3 - 2 + 3 - 2
Onsocccssm|cxpcrtssawtbcma|ncbancctobcahncsscIortbc0j ( Dis
trihut i
' '
1 1
I I I . Tbc|rsocccssratcwasO%oItbcZ-Jcomb|nat|ons,Ior a rc|at|vc f
r
ac
t i
1 1
1 1
I lb l rmge,From|||aMIojmr|oo
t1I
J.
4 o| tbc ava||ab|c comb|nat|ons. Tbcy saw an opporton|ty to makc a
sa|ctyp|ay'aga|nsta I-4 tromp sp||tw|tbtbcs|ng|ctonj ack |ntbcWcst band
|
[
|str|bot|on 1 ) . Accord|ng|y, tbcy p|aycd ad|amond totbc acc, wb|cb, |Itbc
j
ack appcarcd,woo|daddO. Icomb|nat|onsIoratota|oIO. J4. OnIortonatc|ytbc
l
ack o
|cntr|cstotbcdommya||owcdIorj ostonchncssc,sotbcscdcc|arcrswcnt
J
ow
n, tbcma|ncbanccIorsocccssbav|ngbccndcstroycd. Tbcrcarcmanyk|nds
t1I
|a||orc -tbc|rswasaIa||orcoIgod|ntcnt.
Z|a
corrcct|ycbosctopotmostoIb|sbopconD|str|bot|onIand|cdatromp

t
hc08. Tb|swoo|d work |nO% oItbc I -4 cascs, a rc|at|vc hact|on oIO.J
t1It
hccomb|nat|onsava||ab|condcrtbcmoopt|ons. Itwoo|da|sowork |Itbc
Ji
a
mo
nds wcrc Z-J w|tbtbc0j9x|ntbcLtband,y|c|d|ngatota|comb|nat|on
.| J. 4.
Z|a'sp|aywassopcr|or|ntbcrat|ooIZ I . I 7,asnotcd|nrUcMmaz|nc
hyS|monCobcm.
T|s |s ncar|y tbc samc rat|o govcmcd by tbc sp||t |n d|amonds | ZO. I I .
ThcJ|dcrcncc| ssma||anddosn'tahccttbcdcc|s|on,tbcp|ntbcrcb|ngtbat
s|mp|cca|co|at|onattbctab|c|spss|b|c5 tbatcvcnamocstp|aycr|w|tba
h| r o
|pract|ccI cancomcopw|tbtbcaward-w|nn|ngdcc|s|onahcra m|notcoI
|mp|car|tbmct|ca|ca|co|at|on.
||yoodon'tIcc| op to tbat, j ost Io||ow bb's ||nd Ko|c and p|ay Ior tbc
max|mom||kc||bodcond|t|on.
||yooasp|rctop|ay||kcZ|a,tbcrc |soncqo|ntcswnt|a|attr|botc rcqo|rcd.
vo
0
mostbavctbccooragcoIyoorconv|ct|onsandnotbpotohby|mag|n|ng
|
hccmbarrassmcntoI|os|ng totbcontbchrstroond. It |son||kc|ytbatZ|a
wo
0
|dbavcwontbcaward|ntbatcasc,a|tboogbb|sp|aywtbcbcst|ntbcbcst
o|a||poss|b|cwor|ds.
Havc0courmcojyourconv|ct|om,autkccp0mkhcsmyour
hcd. From|||tyTco~cancomc|nmody|nomcsojadvs|tyucn
youucr|dtaodcvonccbcuauong.
A Shanghai Probabi lity
I pmyR, notcard.
- L|yCo|brtson| I B9I - I 9JJI
Oft
e
n w
bcnp|ay|ngaga|nstagop|aycr,orcvcnamcd|orconcwbobasyoor
""

|cr,
psycbo|og|ca|Iactorsp|aya ro|c |ndr|v|ngyooohtbc bcatcn patb. It
helps
||yootomyoortboogbtstowardsprobab|||tyandawayhomwbatyoo|car
T0st.
CmmI I l HmEnFmy0HaM | l 9 |
Dealer: North Rosnbrg
NS Vulnerable J 1 0 7 5 4
7
0 Q 1 0 8
A K J 7
mker 0wer
A 9 6 2
D
K 3
1 0 4 3 QJ 9 8 6 5
0 K 0 AJ 7 4 2
Q 6 4 3 2 -
Zia
Q 8
A K 2
0 9 6 5 3
1 0 9 8 5
mker Rosnbr 0wer ZIo
1 . 2 dbl
3 ptt 4 dbl
al l ptt
Th|sdca|arosc|nthcscm|hna|soIthc Z07 bmoda bw|w|thL5AZIac|oe
opstart5oothAh|ca. Atthcothcrtab|c,Wcst,HowardWc|nstc|n,wasdcc|arcr
|nthcsamcdoub|cd contmct. TmCpc|cdthcAandWc|nstc|nwasab|cto
mhootthcd|amonds,mak|nganovcnr|ckwhcnthc droppdontbcth|rJ
roond. W|thLstasdcc|arcr,|amadcagrcatstanby |cad|ngthrccroonJso|
hcarts,k||||ngthcovcrtr|ckandpott|ngthccontract |njcopardy. Cra|gGowcr
hadtosctoph|sd|amondsw|thootthcbnchtoIamh.
Thc p|ay |n d|amonds takcn |n |m|at|on has a vcn |ow cxpctcd mtc o|
socccss,around I |n 1. Ancxpcrt |oks ahcad and p|ansh|sp|aybascd on thc
assompt|on that thc cond|t|ons Ior socccss cx|st. Thc qocst|on was m|scJt
bbbyabr|t|shcommcntatorastowhcthcrdcc|arcrshoo|dp|aytodroptbcO
orp|aytop|nthc0l0by|cad|ngthc0jonthcth|rdroond. K|tWo|scyrcp||cJ
thatonccoo|dgobacktothc0mods|nordcrtosccthatdropp|ngtbcquc
co
wasaJ. l Iavor|tcasthcrc|cvantIoorcomb|nat|onswcrcQ- l 0-9,Q- l 0-B,Q-9
-S
and l 0-9-B,thrccoIwh|ch|nc|odcdthcqoccn.Th|scunonana|ys|swasra
th
cr
|osc|ycxprcsscd, bot|tgavcthcr|ghtapproach-p|ayohthc0AKand
Juc|
thcth|rdroond.
Cra|gGowcrstancdd|amondsby|cad|ngtothc0K,andthcnp|aycd
a
|

tothck|ngandadvanccdthc0A. Lthcd|amond |cads,Koscnbrgp|a

y

J
'"

0l0and thc0B |nthatordcr. 5othccond|t|onsIorsocccssappcarcd to

b
c
i 0
l 1 70 ) me, PommIo]m
p|acc. Ho|d|ngQ- 1 0-8, Koscnbcrg coo|d Io||ow |n two ways. Ho|J|ng 1 0-9-8,
bc
coo|dIo||ow|ns|xways. Toswcan|vcattbcoddsoI3: I tbatbcwasdca|t
l08 ratbcrtbantbc01 098.
Nowtotbcpsycbo|og|ca|Iactor. Z|a'sncgat|vcdoob|cprom|scdsomcb|gb
card va|ocs, m|gbt tbcsc |nc|odc tbc O' Hcrc |s wbcrc Z|a's b|d may bavc
p|aycdontbcm|ndoIb|sopponcnt. Intbccnd,Gowcrmadctbcconcctp|ay.
Tbc
ana|ys|s can bc |mprovcd by cons|dcr|ng not j ost tbc d|amond so|t
|n |so|at|on bot |ntbccontcxtoItbcdca|as awbo|c,tak|ng|ntoaccoont tbc
J|
v|s|onoIs|dcs. Tb|s sboo|d bc tbcIoosoIdcc|arcr's tb|nk|ng at tbc t|mc oI
Jcc|s|on. I|rst,g|vcn tbc |nIormat|onava||ab|c, onc mayIoma p|ctorcoItbc
most
||kc|ycand|datcs|nordcroItbc|r||kc||bodoIoconcnccg|vcntbcknown
bcarts
p||t. HcrcarctbcmostcommonNortb-Sootbsp||ts.
ll I v
5 - 2 5 - 2 5 - 2 6 - 1 6 - 1
I 1 - 3 I 1 - 3 I 1 - 3 I 1 - 3 I 1 - 3
< 3 - 4 < 4 . 3 < 2 . 5 < 3 - 4 < 2 - 5
+ 4 - 4 3 - 5 + 5 - 3 3 - 5 4 - 4
Combinaions L 0. 8C 0.48C 0. 27C 0. 2C
Tc0mooddsoIa1-Jsp||tarcZ%,doob|ctbatoIaJ-Zsp||t. Tbatadvantagc
ha bccn|ncrcascdasarcso|toItbcb|dd|ng,wb|cbp|ntstoanoncvcnsp||t|n
spadcs. Ahcrtbcdoob|cby Z|aandsobscqocntpassby Koscnbrg,Cnd|t|on
appcarstobtbcmost||kc|y,somax|mom||kc||boonccaga|nconIormsto
rca||ty,a|tboogbgcncm||ytbcrc|snogoarantcc.
AhcrtbchntmondoId|amonds,p|ay|ngohtbc4Aandtbc4Kwoo|dbavc
|ono|toos|ydroppdtbcqoccndoob|cton|nZ|a'sband,g|v|ngconhrmat|ontbat
Boscnbcrg bc|d tbc% |nordcr to makc opan opcn|ng b|dona ratbcrwcak
spaJcso|t. Tb|srcprcscntstbcgatbcr|ngoI|nIormat|onatnocost. Lvcnb|toI
|nIormat|onbc|ps, |Ion|y toca|mtbc ncncs wbcn p|ay|ngaga|nsta mastcroI
tr|ckcn. Z|a'sc|cvcrdraw|ngoItmmpscanbtomcdaga|nstb|mbygoarantcc|ng
thcsaIctyoItb|sproc.
W|tbncarccrta|nty,Gowcrcoo|dp|acctbcOw|tbKoscnbcrgandcons|dcr
thc
conscqocnccs ondcr Cnd|t|on I. In Iact, |IKoscnbcm wcrc dca|t tbrcc
d|a
onds to tbc qoccn, tbc contmct |s goamntccd on tbc ||nc rccommcndcd
Wo|scy. S|ncc Nonb h Io||owcd to tbc 0K w|tb tbc 010, tbc rcmotc
poss|b|||tyoI8 w|nn|ngvar|at|onoICnd|t|onIIcvaporatcsandonc|s|cItw|tb
thcb
opctbattbcmax|mom||kc||bodd|str|bot|onapp||cs.
T
bcana|ys|sos|ngtbcd|v|s|onoIs|dcs|soscm||nIoos|ngonc'stb|nk|ngat
th
c
ta
b|contbcmorcprobab|ccond|t|omg|vcntbc|nIormat|ontbat|sconcnt|y
a
va
||ab|cattbct|mcoIdcc|s|on. Ycs,mmcpmct|cc |srcqo|rcd|ntbcrank|ng
Cmm l HmEnFmy0HaM I l 7 l |
o|tbcprobab|||t|cs,botastbcbab|t|sco|t|vatcd,tbcproccssbccomcscas|
cr. It
savcs t|mc andchort |n tbc |ong ron, and |saccoratc toa somc|cntdcgrcc Io
r
manys|toat|ons. Kcmcmbcr, |ItbcoddsIortwoa|tcmat|vcs arc ncar|y JO-
g
|n a pract|ca| scnsc |t docsn't mocb mattcr wh|ch onc |s cboscn, bccaosc
.
s

onccrta|nty|ssogrcat. IIam|stakcocors,|t|smorc||kc|ytobcthcIao|tnI.
s
.
wayyoo havcgathcrcd |nIormat|on rathcrthan thatyoos|mp|ygocsscd wr
np
g
|nastatcoIonccrta|nty.
When Several Honors Are Mi ssi ng
Usully, when seveal ky card are missing,
you mut mnoeuve frst againt 0lowest.
j. M. Kood|ncsco|nTh Dictionar of Suit Combintion
C|ub p|aycn arc Iam|||ar w|th thc L|ght-Lvcr Ku|c conccm|ng a hncssc Inr
s|ng|cm|ss|nghonor,botarcnot5dcaronthcprocdorcaga|nstscvcra|m|ss|ng
honon. Thctcndcncy|stotn|mpat|cnt|yIor|mmcd|atcsocccsswhcnadc|av
.
J
approach|sbst. Lvcnwor|dchamp|onsm|ghtrc|ytostrong|yona pio v|cw,
as|sshownonthcIo||ow|ngdca|homthc Z07 Ita||anC|ubChamp|onsh|pS+
Dealer: West
EW Vul nerable
1 0 8
V K QJ 9
< A K 8 7
Q 5 2
K 6 4
( 6 2
< 9 5 4 3 2
+ K 1 0 4
D
A QJ 7 3 2
( 5
< QJ 1 0
J 7 6
9 5
A 1 0 8 7 4 3
< 6
+ A 9 8 3
bthWcstsp|aycd|n1ahcropcn|ngw|thab|doIl NT. ThcdcIcnscbcga0

'
tak|ngtworoondsoIspadcsandsw|tch|ngtothc%.Thcp|aywmsD|ghtIoD
arJ
astmmpswcrcdmwnandd|amondsc||m|natcdtothcp|ntwhcrcWcstwa
o
n
|cadw|thhvccardsrcma|n|ng. NorthandSuthcou|dbrcadIorhav|ngtb
rcc
dobscach.
l 1 72 | me,Pom|I|Iojm
West

J 9
- D
ost

A 8
-
Q 5 2 A 9 8
|
c
|cy |stohnd tbc4Kwc||p|accd,botoncmosta|sotakc |ntoaccoonttbc
|.cat|onsoItbc4j and tbc 4I 0. Tbc 49B |n tbc dommy can p|aya ro|c. It
wo
o|dbc
wrongtotb|nk asIo||ows.'Tbcrcarc I 7 HCIm|ss|ngandIcanp|acc
1 0 o|
tbcmw|tb5ootb,sotbcoddsIavortbc4Kbc|ng|ntbcNortbband.' Tbat
argomcnt|sbascdso|c|yontbc0mmoddsandtbcp|aybascan|cdosIarbyond
thatasscssmcnt. Tbcon|yconccm|sbowtbcc|obso|tmaybcd|str|botcd. Hcrc
J
fC tbc poss|b|ccomb|nat|onswbcrcu,v, andw rcprcscnt|owcards.
King in te Nor
N
orth
South
Combi nations
King in te W
North
South
Combi nations
K1 0
m
1
m
K1 0
1
Kw
1 0uv
3
1 0v
Ku
3
K1 0w
Juv
3
J v
K1 0u
3
Kv
J 1 0u
3
J 1 0w
Kuv
3
Bc|crcnccs on tbc p|ay oI so|t comb|nat|ons g|vc con0|ct|ng adv|cc on bow
to p|ay tbc c|ob so|t Iortwo tr|cks. Howcvcr, A|hcdo Vcnacc bad tbc addcd
aJvantagctbatwb|cbcvcrdcIcndcrwontbc tr|ck woo|d b ob||gcd tocont|noc
thcso|torprov|dcamhandas|oh. Hcmadctbcbr||||antp|ayoIabcarttotbc
accandtbc4Bhomthcdommy.Thcbr||||ancy|ay|nrccogn|t|ngtbc0cx|b|||ty
th|sprov|dcd, dcpnd|ngon thccard w|tb wb|ch5ootbIo||owcd. Inpract|cc,
Sootbp|aycdtbc4j,sotbcrc|cvantcomb|nat|onswcrcasIo||ows.
North
South
Plo the 4
uv K1 0w 1 0v
K1 0 Juv Ku
Duck
Kv
J 1 0u
V
c
acccovcrcdtbc4j w|thtbc4,|os|ngtotbc4K. L tbcIorccdrctomoI
th
c9,
tbcsccondcbancccamc |ntop|ay. Hchncsscdsocccssm||ybypott|ng|n
tb
c
49homdommy. TbcodswcrcZ. I tbat5ootbhadnotp|aycdtbc4jhom
JI Ou. Tb|ssbowswhy.
Cmpm I I l HmEnFmy0HaM l l 7J |
l ll lll
North + K 1 0 4 + K 7 4 + K 6 4
South +J 7 6 + J 1 0 6 +J 1 0 7
Pl ausibl e Plays 1 4 4
Wei ghts 4 1 1
Assom|ng Sootb woo|d p|ay tbc4j ondcrCond|t|on |, Nortb most rctom thc
4,sotbcrc|son|yoncscqocncco|p|aos|b|cp|ays. LndcrtbcotbcrconJ|t|oo

,
Sootbcoo|dbavcp|aycdtbc4IOw|tbcqoa|cdcctandNortbcoo|dbavcrctomeJ
c|tbcro|b|s rcma|n|ng |ow cards. Hcncc tbcrcarc |oorp|aos|b|c scqocnccs |or
cacbo|twocomb|nat|ons.
Tbcrc |s nonccd todoa m||ana|ys|so|a||tbccomb|nat|ons attbc
t
ab|c.
Yoos|mp|vbavctoadbcrctotbcadv|cco|TcrcnccKccscbascdontbc|r|nL|p|c
o|Kcstr|ctcdCbo|cc,namc|ytbat,|nacr|t|ca|s|toat|on,assomctbcSootbpa\cr
basnotp|aycdacard|4jor4I OI homacbo|cco|cqoa|s. WbcnNortbrctun)-
tbc4,oncassomcstbatbcbadnocbo|cc,as|t|sb|s|astrcma|n|ng|owcaJ
Vcrsacc camcd I Z|M|s as b|s oppos|ng Wcst | a|so a wor|d cbamp|onI i n
tbc hvc-card cnd|ngd|dnottakc m|| advantagc o|tbc s|toat|on, bcwcnt|or
|mmcd|atcsocccssor|a||orcbyp|ay|ngtbc4Aandtbcnac|obtotbc+Q, oi ng
downonc. Nosccond cbancc|or b|m. Kctom|ng totbcd|str|bot|ono|HCP
tb|scanbcjodgcJ tobca ratbcrsba||owp|ay, astbcb|dd|nggavc a c|oc tha
|
Nortbbc|dtbc4K.
ubIn fonmnI
1 NT pass
3< 3.
4< al l pass
8tbI
20
40
Nunea
24
pass
Wbcnbcrcacbcdb|shvc-cardcnd|ng, Dobo|nm|gbtbavcaskcdb|msc||

ha
|
was tbc sobstancc bcb|nd Ianton|'s ra|sc. ||ac|ng tbc 4K |n tbc Nortb han.|
po|ntstoVcrsacc's||nco|p|ayo||cad|nga|owc|obhomdommyandattcmpt| o:
todockatr|cktoNortb.
Fear of the Unknown
|t | scasy tocr|t|c|:c Anton|o Scmcnta's p|ay |n go|ng opw| tbtbc +J

0
''
|t woo|d bavc bccn bcttcr tokccptbatbonor tocovcrtbc49 rcma|n|o
g
||v
dommy. Howcvcr,||bcgocsscdtbatVcrsacc|ntcndcdtodockanywav
,tb
c
~''``

woo|dat|castg|vcdcc|arcra |os|ngopt|on.
I l 74 | 8nge, Pom|||aMIojmmo
| |camcJ th|s |csson watch|ng my crstwh||c partncr, Dr S|mon Mar|nkcr,
-up
crb|yp|ay|ngh|s|avor|tccontract,JJ,throoghooth|s|atcc|ght|csanJcar|y
o|oct|cs.Thcrc|saJ|st|nctaJvantagctobchaJ|nbrcak|ngaso|tby|caJ|ng|ow
|r
om dom
my towarJs thc onsccn hanJ, anJ thc morc oncxpcctcJ that |s, thc
bcttcr. Thccon|os|ontb|so|tcncaoscJwasawonJcrtobcbo|d. Lcoorsc,||no
h
cs|tat|onwasobscrvcJ,tbat,too,to|dastory.| S|mon's|ondcstbr|dgcmcmory
w
asbc|ngcomp||mcntcdbyHc|cnSobc|onb|sdcc|arcrp|ay,pcrbapsa|tcrsocb
^
movcba||accntonprcv|oos. I
|t|scasytom|sstbcpo|nttbatadc|cndcr'scbo|cco|p|ays|spromptcdbytbc
c
^
rd-thatarcv|s|b|ctob|m. Hcrc|sancxamp|chomtbcZOO7 Vcn|ccCop.
Dealer: East
Both Vul nerable
Wnbm
AJ 1 0 5
c 8 7 4
A QJ 4
6 4
Wnbm
1 .
3NT
$un
K 6 2
C K 9 5 2
1 0 7 6
Q 1 0 3
D
Wong
9 8 7 4
C A 1 0 6
9 5 3
+ A 8 2
8jemon
Q 3
c QJ 3
K 8 2
+ K J 9 7 5
$un 8jemon Wong
pass
all pass
1 + pass
1 NT pass
Co
m
cntators can scc a|| Ioor bands. Tbcy may pob||c|y rcjcct compotcr
|^
ramstbatposscsstbcsamcIac|||ty, boto|tcntbc tcmptat|on |stogrcat|or
!
hu
antorcs|standtbc|rana|ys|sbccomcs0awcd. Tb|sdca| |s acasc |n po|nt,
+-
succcssdcpcndsonap|ay|nakcyso|ttbat|sobv|oosw|tba||bandsonv|cw.
Te
qocst|onbccomcs. |stbcr|gbtp|ayjost|hab|contbccv|dcnccava||ab|cto
-
c|arcr'
||rst,wbatsboo|dSootb|cadaga|nstJNT' Tbcb|dd|ngbaswamcdaga|nst
`
b
|
ack-so|t|cad,so|t|sacbo|ccbctwccnapass|vcd|amondandanact|vcbcart.
d
^
o
g|| Wang, ||kc most, cbosc a pass|vc . Cbcr| jcrkan won tbc |n
Chpt l HmEnt:Pmy0HaM I I 75 l
JummyanJ|cJthc4. ||M|ngSonhadp|aycda|owc|ob,|t|scasytoscc
|,
putt|ng|nthc
9
wou|dhavcg|vcndcc|arcrthrccc|obtr|ckstogoa|ong
w|

|
a spaJc, a hcart, and |oord|amonds. Woo|ddcc|arcrbavc p|aycd to th
c
+
J
,
J|d ob Hammana|tcrtbcsamc |cad |nb|s matcb aga|nstIta|y' Tbat |caJs

o
downoncasSootbcansw|tcbtoabcart,g|v|ngtbcdcIcnsctbrccbcarts,as
|a|

andac|ob. n tbc otbcr band, wbcn roccNc|||IorAostra||apot |n tbc4J ,

tbcIndoncs|andcIcndcrdockcd-g|v|ngoptbccontractasdcc|arcrcoo|J
p,
saIc|yp|ayonspadcs.
It |sc|car tbat most dcc|arcrs assomcd tbrcc tr|cks |nspadcs, and dcc|
Je
J
tbcynccdcdj ostonc tr|ck |nc|obs. nccommcntator, tmctotbcpr|nc|p
|csof
b|savocat|on,soggcstcdtbcp|ayoItbcKontbchntroond. Kood|ncscowou| J
notapprovc.
Sopcrhc|a||y, yoo m|gbt tb|nk tbat p|ay|ngtotbc9 g|vcs yoo tbrcc Wd
to|osc,totbcA,tbct ortbcl0. Sorc|yp|ay|ngtotbcjrcdoccstbat|

\
twocbanccs,sosboo|d bcbcttcr. Tbattb|nk|ng|sa|ongtbc||ncsoItbcaJv|ce
top|aytotbcK,wb|cb|oscson|ytotbcacc. Ita||assomcstbcrc|sjosttbcooe
opporton|tytosoccccd,botdcc|arcrbtwocbanccsto|cadac|obhomdumr.
and twocbanccs arc bcttcr tbanonc. IItbc k|ng |oscs to tbc acc, tbcrc|s o
rccovcrypos|t|onontbcsccondroond.
nc mrtbcr po|nt. |n|so|at|on, tbcbstp|ayIoronctr|ck |stbcsamcp|at
as |or tbrcc tr|cks, namc|y pot |n tbc n|nc, goard|ng aga|nst strcngtb |n the
Nortbband. Dcc|arcra|sobas to tb|nk abot wbat bappcns |Itbc bcartsdlc
c|carcdbc|orc tbcspadchncssc |stakcn. Nowa |os|ngspadchncsscdoomsthc
contract.
How c|rcomstanccs cbangc tbc ods |s wc|| |||ostmtcd by M|ng S

o-
oncxpcctcd p|ay oItbct ontbc hnt roondoItbcso|t. T|s wascovcrcJ|\
tbck|ngandwon w|tbSootb'sacc,ahcrwb|cbtbcdcIcnscp|aycdtbrccro

oJ
oIbcarts. Tbcgrcatcrtbcsomr|sc,tbcmorc|nIomat|ontbcp|ayconta|ns,SO i |
paystog|vccxtra tboogbttowbatmaybcbappcn|ng. Watbadsbc|nm|nJ -
tbat dcc|arcr woo|d takcadccp hncssc |nc|obs' Tcp|ay oItbcqoccn|romO
bo|d|ng|nc|od|ngtbctcn|soncoItbcmostcommondcccpt|vcp|ays,soonthat
bas|sa|onc,tbcc|rcomstanccsoISon'sp|aym|gbtbavcg|vcnr|sctosomcJccrc
:
ana|ys|sconccm|ng tbc most ||kc|y sp||ts g|vcntbc ps|vc |cad oIa d|a
o
oJ
homSootb. Hcrcarctbcma|ncand|datcsoItbcNonb-5ootbsp||ts.
ll lll lV
V
4 - 3 3 - 4 4 - 3 4 - 3 3 - 4
V 3 - 4 V 4 - 3
O
4 . 3
O
4 . 3 V
4 . 3
3 - 3 3 - 3 3 - 3 2 - 4 2 - 4
3 - 3 3 - 3 2 - 4 3 - 3 4 - 2
Cbin c c (3/4JC (3/4JC (9/
1 6)C
I l 7 | me, Pom|||Iojm

ond|t|onImaybcro|cJoot,asSootbwoo|Jbavc|cJabcart. ConJ|t|onI|may

c
|nc|odcdbccaoscontbcaoct|on,Sootb woo|dbavcbccnrc|octantto|caJa
s
|
adc.
| Kodwc||aga|nstIta|yJ|J|cad tbc%, botonaJ|hcrcntaoct|on. l Notc
th
at
Co
nd|t|onIIwas|nJccJtbcactoa|d|v|s|onoIs|dcs,somax|mom||kc||bod
oncc aga|n
conIomcd torca||ty. Cond|t|on III |smorc ||kc|y tbanCond|t|on
U
as tbc
O |cadwoo|d bcsomcwbatonosoa|homa Ioor-card bo|d|ng. nc
co
nc|odcshomaconoryana|ys|stbatc|obsJ-J |smocbmorc||kc|ytbanc|obs
4

2
, pcrb
apsw|tboddsb|gbasZ. l , cnoogbtogctonw|tb.
Now|ct'scxam|nc5on'sp|ayswbcnc|obsarcJ-J. Tbcrcarctwocascs.
Case I
Case II
Sun
+ Q l O x
+ Q x x
Wang
+ A x x
+ A l O x
Pnuons
1
2
Tchrstcasc|stw|ccas||kc|yastbcsccond,as|nCascI I , 5oncoo|dbavcp|aycd
c|tbcroIbcrtwo |owcardsonthcsccond roond, wbcrcas |nCasc I sbcbad to
p|ay bcronc mma|n|ng |ow card - a pr|mc cxamp|c oItbc m|c oIrcstr|ctcd
cho|cc.
Log|ca||y,dcc|amrsboo|dbavcpot|ntbc49ontbcsccondroondoIc|obs,
cspcc|a||ys|ncctbcp|aytotbatp|ntbadprcttymocbmarkcdNortbastbcdangcr
hand w|tb tbc |ongbcan. Ls|ng to tbc 4l 0m|gbt bavc bcn a matcbpo|nt
J|sastcr,botbcmwoo|d st||| bavc|chdcc|arcrw|tbcbanccs. Inchcct,sbcwas
p|ay|ngIorNortbtobavcbgnw|tb+ and5ootbw|tb4Al 0xx|Cond|t|on
H) .
|crbapstbcmost|ntcmst|ngqocst|on,homdcc|arcr'spo|ntoIv|cw,| swby
J|J Son p|ay tbc 4 on tbc hnt roond' 5orc|y sbc woo|d bc morc ||kc|y to
Jo tb|s |ok|ngat tbc4l 0 |n bcr ownband, as sbc woo|d know tbat jcrkan
|gbtbctak|ngasocccssm|dccphncssc. Tb|s|ss|m||artotbcs|toat|onIaccdby
Vcoaccontbcprcv|oosdca|,botbcrcjcrkanbadana|tcmat|vcp|ay|nspadcs
that J|ssoadcd bcrmm pono|ng tbc c|ob so|t. 5bccasbcdootbcrd|amonds,
p|aycd ac|obtotbcj ackandbankcdcvcntb|ngontbcspadchncssc,hn|sb|ng
t
woJown.
I 00 Hackett's Di rect Approach
Tbst pln uKpoft b mfoUy of oths .
I||nytbcL|dcr| ZJ-79I
c
p|ay |nJNT|sohcn a racc bctwccndcIcndcnanddcc|arcrtodctcrm|nc
"
h|cb
s|dccancstab||sb tbc mqo|s|tcnombroItr|cks. IItbc opcn|ng |cad |s
|+s|v
c,tbcmcc|snotsomocbaspr|ntasamamtbon|nwb|cbtbctwos|dcscan
Cmm l HmEnFmy0HaM ( l 77 |
give up the lead a couple of ti mes in hopes of eventually gaining an advanlH
at the end. Some declarers arc especially adept at loLk|ngahead and appl
y
in
g
gradual pressure. tbcrcxpcrts||kcto makctbc|rmovcscar|y,apply|nE
pre
ss
ur
bcIorctbcJcIcnJcrsbavcbccnab|c tocxcbangc|nIormat|on.
Hcrcarctwogamcsw|ngsmanuIacturcJ byjasonHackctt |n tbc f
na
l ,
tbc ZOO7 bng||sbpcnTcamTr|a|s. Hc |sadcc|arcrwbooItcntakcsadi rect
approacb togod cdcct. |n tb|shrstdca|,bcdcmonstratcsa knowleJge of th
bcstoddsIordcvc|op|ngtr|cks|naso|t|nwb|cbtbrccbonorsarcm|ss|ng.
Dealer: South A J 9 3
Both Vulnerable c K 6 4
0 7 5 4
4 K J 8
1 0 8 7 6
D
5
c 3 C A Q 1 0 5 2
0 Q 1 0 6 3 0 9 8 2
9 7 4 2 4 A 1 0 6 5
K Q 4 2
c J 9 8 7
0 A K J
Q 3
Atbotb tab|cs, Sootbopcncd a strong l NTandNonbm|scd to JNTwithout
|nvcst|gat|ngtbcposs|b|||tyoIa4-4spadcht. Attbcotbcrtab|c,tbcope
n
ing
|cadwasanattackontbcd|amondso|t,g|v|ngawayatr|cktotbc0j. With four
spadcsandtbrccd|amonds|ntbcbag,|tappcantbattbcbcstp|ayIorni ne trick
|stoIorcctwotr|cks|nc|obs,botIorrcasonsbcstknowntob|msc|I,dcclarer k|
a bcan to tbcK |ndommy. |tmaybc a c|cvcrp|ayat matcbpo|nts where
sto|cnovcnr|ckcoontsIormocb, botatTcams,badt|m|ngcan|cadtoadisast
l r.
as |t d|dbcrc. Aw|dc-awakc bast wontbcA and rctomcd tbc <2. Declarer
potoptbcj on|ytod|<ovcrbcbadsctopIoortr|cksIortbcdcIcnsctogoa|oo:
w|tbtbc 4A.
At b|s tab|c, jason Hackcttgot a pass|vc spadc |cad, wb|cb bad tbc
meri t
oIg|v|ng notb|ng away cxccpt a tcmpo. Dcc|arcr |okcd to bcans Ior
trick
Accord|ngtojcronWarmcrdam'sprogm, 'So|tI|ay',tbcrc |sa7J%cha
nce
t
I
mak|ngtwoormorctr|cks|nbcans|Itbc|smnhomtbcSootbbanJ.
As t
il
cards||c,tb|s woo|d bconsaIc, asLtcancstab||sbbcan w|nncnwb||c
still i n
posscss|onoIancntn w|tb tbc4A.
|nkccp|ngw|tbb|s osoa| sty|c, Hackcttmadcan |mmcd|atc prcssurc
|'`
by|cad|nga|owbcanawayhomtbcdommyandtowardstbcc|oscdh
an
d.
]
i
I l 7b I rme,From|||aMIojmaoo
,t
--
ufcJtbccontract. Eastroscw|tbtbcanJrctumeJaJ|amonJDJcc|arcr's
(A. AspaJctoJummyanJa|owc|ubtowarJstbc+Q3 prov|JcJ thccssent|a|

u
|
tr|ck. AbcarttotbcKrcvca|cJtbcbaJbrcak,but|tcstab| |sbcJtbc<j9
,t-
J
tcnaccaga|nstEast's<1 05. |ntbccnJ,asat|sh|ngovcrtr|ckwasrccorJcJ.
|n
b|s banJ| |ng oItbc bcart so|t,jason Hackctt gavc a Jcmonstrat|on oI
tc
chn|ca|sk||| tbat onc woo|d cxpccttobc pra|scJ by tbc commcntators,
|
v
wcvcr
, tbcysccmcdmorc|mprcsscdby b|strcatmcnt oItbc ncxt dca|, cvcn
t|
v
ugb
succcssontb|socas|ondcpcndcdonancrrorbytbcbastJcIcndcr. ncc
.ig.i|n,tbc9B7spotcardsp|aycdapart.
Dealer: East
NS Vulnerable
J 3
C K 8 7 5 2
0 7 5 2
+ J 5 3
A Q 6 2
c Q 1 0 9
0 K 1 0 6 3
8 4
D
9 8
C A J 6
0 A Q 9 8
+ A 9 7 6
K 1 0 7 5 4
c 4 3
0 J 4
+ K Q 1 0 2
5cbopcncdINTand,ahcraIoppctStaymanscqocncc,p|aycd|ntbccontract

i| 3NT. Tbc |cad w tbc J, won by tbc |n tbc dommy. Tb|s was not
+ncdcct|vc stan Ior tbc dcIcnsc, asWcstbad no oots|dc cntn tocnjoybcart
| oocrs.
Tcspadchncssccoo|dwa|t,andtbcrcsccmcdtobt|mctotnad|vcrs|on
| n
thcc|obso|t, so Hackcttp|aycd tbc4BhomdommyatTr|ck Z, oncc aga|n
|
tt|ngprcssorccar|yontbcdcIcndcr. Tbccontractcoo|dbavcbccndcIcatcd
i|
|astbadpotopac|obbonor,bots|ccp||ybcp|aycd|ow. jasonovcrtookw|tb
|hc
49,|os|ngtoWcst's4j . Nowdcc|arcrwasbomc.bccoo|dc||m|natctbcrcd

| tsIrom tbc Lst band andcndp|ayLst |n c|obs,Iorc|ngb|mto |cad aspadc

+w
ay
Iromtbck|ng.
Tb|sdcmonstratcstbatadcc|arcrnccdn'ta|waysgatbcr|nIormat|onbcIorc
a
k|ngacr|t|ca|p|ay. I|ay|ngodacoop|coIroondsoId|amonds|ssaIccnougb,
|
t|t
Jocsg|vctbcdcIcndcnabcttcr|dcaoIwbcrctbc|rtr|cksarcgo|ngtobavc
|o
comchom. Dock|ngatr|ckcar|ytomcdoottobasaIctyp|ayoIsonsanda
|
r
p
arat|onIortbccvcntoa|cndpos|t|on.
Cmpm l HmEnPmy0HaM | l 79 I
CommonsenseProbab| | |ly
Trurh will sooner come our of eror chan fom confusion.
- S|r|ranc|s acon ( 1 561 - 1 626)
Tbc ctobcr
2007 |ssuc oIBrige Magazine conta|ncJ anart|c|c cnt|t|cJ
'Te
|r|nc|p|coIVacant ||accs' |n wb|cb M|cbac| Akcroyd d|scusscJ a dca| payed
succcssIu||ybyr|t|sbcxpcrtDav|dGo|d. Amajorpo|ntoId|scuss|onwahou
d|scards|nas|dcsu|tadccttbccst|mat|onoIprobab| ||t|csbascdonvacantpaccs.
ortrcatmcnt|sratbcrd|dcrcnt,as| t|sbascdontbcd|rcctapp||cat|onoI stuJv
oItbcmostprobab|cd|str|but|onoIs|dcs. Hcrc|stbatdca|.
Deal er: South
Neither Vulnerable
Q 7 6 3
J 6 4 2
1 0 9 5
Q 3
AJ 8 4 2
1 0 9 5
A 6
9 7 2
D
K 1 0 9
A K Q 7 3
K
4 A K 8 6
5
8
QJ 8 7 4 3 2
J 1 0 5 4
Soutbopcncd tbcb|dd|ngw|tb Iandjomp-sb|Itcd toJ4on tbc ncxtnunJ
AItcrNortbsbowcd a d|amondcontro|,KKCIo||owcdandtbcNorth-Socth
pa|r rcacbcd tbc bcart s|am. Wcst |cd tbc , wb|cb was won w|tb thcOK.
WbcntbcbcartswcrcIound to bc 4- I , Dav|dGo|d p|aycd odIourrLundb I
surrcndcratrumptr|ckt oWcst. Ad|amondwascont|nucdt otbcacc| nJum
Tbcdcc|s|onnowIaccdbydcc|arcrwaswb|cbwaytohncsscIortbc
Akcroydpo|ntsouttbatbascdontbcknownsp| |t|nbcarts,tbcrc|sava
caot
p|acc |mba|ancc oIJ, wb|cb po|nts top|ay|ng bastIortbc . Howcvcr, |
h|
docsn'ttakc|ntoaccountbast'sd|scardoI tbrccd|amondsontbrccprcv|ocshc'
r|
tr|cks. Surc|ytb|spo|ntstobast'sbo|d|ngmorcd|amondstbanWcst,anJsoth.
d|scards act to cvcn tbc vacant p|acccount. Tbc proccss bccomcs
cnfu
st,l
s|ncctbcwbo|cargumcntdcpcndsonadj ust|ngtbcvacantp|accsappropr|at
-
l
Tb|s gcts away hom tbc Iundamcnta| propcn|cs oItbc p|ay and obsc
urcs |'"
rcason|ng to no grcat purposc. |t |s bcttcr |Ionc abandons tbc vacant D
''`
argumcnt a|togctbcr, as tbc matbcmat|cs bcb|nd tbc vacant p|acc ca|cu|a
t|
'''
oIprobab|||t|csdcpcndsonarandomcbo|ccoIp|aysbybastwbcrcas|nI
^
-
|
|'"
I 1 80 I nge, Pmm|||an Iojmaoo
J|scarJs arc bascJ on br|Jge |og|c anJ Jo not m|rror thc act|ono|Jea||ng thc
carJs.
The Discards in Diamonds
;
snotcJprcv|ous|y|n thcJ|scuss|onoIaycs'Thcorcm,aJ|scardcbangcs tbc
cuncnt
numbcr oIvacant p|accs, but m|gbt not cbangc tbc oJJs oIhnJ|ng a
|
art|cu|arcarJ |na pan|cu|ar|oat|on. Tbosc oJJs Jcpcnd on tbc known |or
a
ssumcJI J|str|but|onoItbcs|Jcs. TbcabovcJca||sanotbcrapp||cat|onoItbc
ccncra| pr|nc|p|c. Tbc hrst po|nt tobcaJJrcsscJ |swbctbcr bast'sd|scarJs can
|c juJgcJ to bavc bccn maJc at ranJom hom tbc cards bc|d. C|car|y not. A
|ookattbcJummytc||sbasttbataspaJccannotbcsparcd|IIornootbcrrcason
than that |t m|gbt cxposc Wcst toa markcd hncssc. A c|obcannotbc sparcJ,
asthc+J I O nccJtobc protcctcd. Tbcconc|os|on |stbatbast'sJ|scarJsmaybc
at ranJom, but tbcy arcconhncd totbc d|amonJso|t|nwb|cbbc bo|Js many
| os|gn|hcantcarJs. bast's act|oncannotbc tbougbtoIasa rcproJuct|onoIthc
Jca||ngproccss|nwb|cba||tbrccso|tscoo|JbccboscnatranJom.
|romtbccv|JcnccoItbcJcIcnsc,dcc|arcrmayassomctbatbastbo|Jsmany
J|amonJsanJsbou|JmakcoscoItb|s|nd|cat|on,notbyaJjost|ngvacantp|accs,
cr50, butbymak|ngatcntat|vcbypotbcs|saboottbcnombcroIJ|amonJsJca|t
I cachJcIcnJcrand,ontb|sbas|s,ca|co|at|ngtbcoJJsoItbcbc|ngontbc
r|cht. Tbcconscqucnccstoaposs|b|chncssccanbccva|oatcdnomcr|ca||y. Thc
rc
s
u|trcma|nstcntat|vc, bot prov|dcsa rca||st|casscssmcntcons|stcntw|tbtbc
conhJcnccass|gncdtotbcor|g|na|assompt|on.
To bcg|n,wccanassomcconscnat|vc|ytbattbcd|amonJswcrcdca|tIourto
VestanJs|xtobast. Hcrcarctbcmostprobab|cJ|str|bot|onsoIs|JcsatTr|ck6
|thtbc|caJ|ndommy, bcansknowntosp||t4-I .
ll lll lV
2 - 3 3 - 2 1 - 4 4 . 1
c 4 . 1 c 4 . 1 c 4 . 1 c 4 . 1
4 - 6 4 - 6 4 - 6 4 - 6
+ 3 - 3 2 - 4 + 4 - 2 1 - 5
Co
mbi nations c (3/4)C (3/S)C (3/20)C
Weig
hts 40 30 1 5 6
Wei g
hts for 4on the lef 1 6 + 1 8 + 3 + 5 Total 42
Weights for 4on the right 24 + 1 2 + 1 2 + 1 Total 49

th
cscIoorJ|str|bot|ons,tbc|smorc||kc|ytobc|ntbcbastbanJ,wb|cb
|
^
|ntstoahncssctbroogbtbatJcIcndcr. ottb|s|snottbccndoItbcston. Tbc
Chpr HmEnFmy0HaM I 1 81 I
p|avs|nthe spaJesu|tarc|unJamenta||yJ|dcrent, s|ncchncss|ngtbrougb East,
Jec|arerneeJstoruntbeJ |mmeJ|ate|y,wbcrcastbcotbcrwayJcc|arcrcanhrst
test spaJes byp|ay|ngtbeK. Lct's|ookattbccdcctoItb|sbycons|Jcr|ngthc
successo|cacb proccssg|ventbc s|xJ|str|but|onssbownabovc.
2 - 3
Runni ng the J wi ns 24
Playi ng K and finessi ng wi ns 1 6
3 - 2
1 2
1 8
1 - 4
0
3
4 - 1
1
6
Total
37
43
Tcsupcr|or|tyoItbcK p|aydcr|vcsnothomtbcvacantp|accsd|rcct|
y,
hut
hom tbc advantagc ga|ncd wbcn tbcspadcssp||t4- I or I -4. W|tb spadcs4- | ,
tb|s p|ay a|wayssoccccds, as a s|ng|cton |n tbc bast band w|||bc droppeJ.
|nordcrtomakctbccorrcctdcc|s|onattbctab|c,dcc|arcrsboo|d rccogn|:cthe
conscqucnccsoItbcI -4sp||ts,IormostoIwb|cbIoorspadctr|ckscannotbctakco
asdcc|arcr can't adord to ovcrtakc a spadc bonortogct back todommy. ]e
spcc|hcs arc |mportant and any argomcnt conccm|ng tbc dchn|t|on oIvacaot
p|accsscrvcson|y ad|stract|on.
Hav|ngso|vcdas|mp|cprob|cm|ntb|smanncr,adcc|arcrmaynowcons|Jer
tbcconscqucnccsoIassum|ng tbc d|amonds bad bccn dca|t J-7. Nodcta| |eJ
ca|cu|at|on|srcqo|rcd, onccan scctbattb|ssp||tw|||bccvcnmorcIavorab|e
to p|ay|ngtbc spadcshrsthom tbc Sootbband. Tbos, oncconc|odcs tbat S|r
|ranc|saconwascorrcctandtbat|t|sbcttcrtoapp|yamctbodandbcwmoc
tbantoargucobscorc|y|naconmscdmanncrw|tbootadvanccmcntoIawarcncss.
|ntb|scasc,Dav|dGo|dgot|tr|gbtbotb|ntbconand|npract|cc.
A Dubi ous Si gnal
wt |smncss! To mvcconcompcrccpt|oman R
rcaoncm cct|yhomm.
- Vo|ta|rc |I 94- I 77BI
y traJ|t|on and by tcmpcramcnt, many vctcran cxpcrts arc opposcd to
thc
conccpt tbat cvcry card p|aycd by tbc dcIcndcrs convcys a mcssagc. |n
h
i
s
|I 99I IbookMmcTpsjorTops,GcorgcKoscnkrant:,a|waystboogbm|,suggest-
tbat a JcIcndcr sboo|dn't s|gna| |Itbc |nIormat|on transm|ttcd |s oImorc
u-c
todcc|arcrtbanto b|s partncr. Marsba||M||cs, |nb|s rcccnt bkInjcrcncc'
BrUgc|Mastcr|o|nt|rcss,ZOOZI , conIcsscstbatbcprcIcncdtbroogbootb|s
|oo
c
anJsucccssm|br|dgccarccrnottos|gna|promsc|ywbcndcc|arcr|n|t|atcdas
u|t.
ratbcrp|ay|ngb|sdcIcns|vccardsatrandom,andtbos, wcknow,g|v|ng
a
^
tbc |cast |nIormat|on. Mart|nHodmanpots |ttb|sway|nb|s I 9BJIorcworJ
t
''
Dcjcnc|nDcpt.
| 1 82 I 8ne, Pmm|an Iojmaoo
Constant si gnal l i ng, whether to show length or strength, is the mark of second
rate players. Trust your partner to know what is goi ng on; don't odd to
declarer's i nformati on.
r|dgc |snota gamc oIccna|nt|csandtbcmorc |nIormat|on panncrbastbc
morc ||kc|y bc |s to makc tbc r|gbt dcc|s|on, so tbcrc |s a comprom|sc to bc
rcacbcd. Today, among |ong-stand|ngpanncrsb|ps compct|ng |n toomamcnts
l tbc b|gbcst |cvc|s, tbcrc |sanopponon|ty todcvc|op tbc anoIs|gna||ng to
aprcv|oos|yonrca||:cdb|gb|cvc|oIcxcc||cncc. Iotcnt|a||y,cvcncardscndsa
mcssagc. 5obowarctbcydo|ng' TbcIo||ow|ngdca|dcmonstratcstbattbcrc|s
st|||somcarcaIor|mprovcmcnt.
|ntbchna|oItbcZ0B5p|ngo|d,tbccvcntoa|cbamp|onss|tt|ngbast-Wcst
d|sadvantagcdtbcmsc|vcsgrcat|ybyadob|ooss|gna|.
Board 28
NS Vul
Howr Weinstin
K Q 9
8 6
0 K J 1 0 8
+ K Q 6 3
Aexander Dbinin
A 7 6 5 3
D
A 9 7
0 Q 7 6 5
5
West
pss
pss
2(

)
dbl
MGmer
J 2
K 5 4 3 2
0 A 9 4 2
1 0 4
Nom East
1 NT` dbl 2
2 pss
pss 3+
al l pss
1 . 1 41 6 HCP.
2. Onesuitd.
3. Transfr.
Andry 0mmov
1 0 8 4
QJ 1 0
0 3
+ AJ 9 8 7 2
Wm
20
pass
30
W|tb
hvcbardstop|ay,tbcKoss|an-Io||sbtcambadan I B-|MI|cad. Tbchna|
css|onbadbccnqo|ctandtbcrcwasnoapparcntnccd to|okIorsw|ngs.
CmmI I l HmEnFmy0HaM I l bJ I
tbc otbcr banJ, tbcrc was nonccd toa|tcrtbc|raggrcss|vc stancc, soGromov
too|a||gbtact|onovcra I 4- I INTopcn|ngb|dtosbowaonc-so|tcdband. |n
tbcpassootpos|t|on,Dob|n|nba|anccdw|tbmodcstva|ocsandahvc-carJspaJe
so|t. Gromov may bavc tboogbt Dob|n|n's b|d was cncoorag|ng |n a pass-or-
concct modc. Nonctbc|css,Gamcrwasnotonctog|vcopcas||ywbcnb|s
s|Je
bc|dtbcmajor|tyoItbcHC|andbcmocdtbcLt- Wcstpa|rhommc|rm|s
ht.
Tbc dcIcndcrs had cnoogb tr|cks |n band to sct tbc contract and avo|J
d|stcr |A, 4A, a c|ob mh, and twobcartsI, bottbcrc was morc madncss to
comc. Tbc |cadoIthc 4J wastakcnw|tbtbc4A. W|tba||bandsonv|cw, |t |s
obv|oostop|aytbcatTr|ckZ, botGromov may bavctboogbttbatdcc|arer
bc|dtbc A. Hcrctomcdac|obIorDob|n|ntomh,andtb|s|swbcrconcmust
conc|odctbats|gna||ngwasnotatthcIorchontoIh|stboogbtprocsscs,IoI he
rctomcdtbc4Z,wh|chsboo|dc|car|y|nd|catcso|tprcIcrcnccIor hcans. T|s
woo|dbcasaIcmtom|IDob|n|nhc|dtbcK.
Dob|n|nscorcdh|smhandtboogbta|ongt|mcovcrwbctbcrtobc||cvcb|s
panncr'ss|gna|or b|soppncnt's b|dd|ng. IIbc bc||cvcdGamcr's b|dd|ng, he
coo|dp|aysaIc|ybycasb|ngh|sAandawa|t|ngdcvc|opmcnts|ntbchcansu|t.
IIbcbc||cvcdb|spanncr's s|gna|, hccoo|dgctanothcrc|obmh. IntbccnJ,
bcgavcaway tbccontract,andw|th |t I I prcc|oosIMIs,by rctom|ngtbcf7,
a||ow|ngtbcKtoscorcatr|ck. Asarcso|toIth|s,tbcmatchwasn'tdcc|JeJ
ont|| tbc |ast band was p|aycd, a I contract by Gamcr tbat was br||||ant|v
dcIcatcdbyGromovandDob|n|n,wborcga|ncdtbc|rIomj ost|nt|mc.
Tbcma|npo|nttobcmadc|sthatcvcncxprtshavcd|mco|t|cs|nprov|d|oc
c|cars|gna|stotbc|rpanncrs. Tbcsccondp|ntbmtodow|ththcnatorcoItbe
|nIormat|onconvcycdbyso|t-prcIcrcnccs|gna|s. Thc|nIomat|ontbcyconta|o
sboo|drc|atctotbcs|gna|cr'sho|d|ng| bam|nIomat|onI , nottowbatbctb|nks
otbcnmaybo|d|soIt |nIomat|onI .
W|tb rcgard tocoont s|gna|s, tbcrc arc mo statcs tob convcycd. oJJ
nombcrbc|dor cvcnnombcrhc|d. Thcrc3 Icwt|mcswbcnthccxactnomber
|samb|gooos. W|thrcgardtoatt|todcs|gna|s,thcrcarcthrccstatcs.Ycs,No,aoJ
Maybc. W|tb so|t-prcIcrcncc s|gna|s, tbcrc arc thrcc statcs. h|gbcr so|t, |ower
so|t,nc|tbcr. Tbc 'nc|thcr'catcgon |samb|goos, asonmrc ocas|ons a tromp
mtom |sdcs|rcd. A so|t-pmIcrcncc s|gna| wasappropr|atcmmGromov, as he
hadsbownas|x-card so|t |nthc b|dd|ng, sohadamp|copcIorcxprcss|ngh|s
prcIcrcnccs. Hcrc|sa||stoIthchvcpss|b|cprcIcrcnccmcssagcsonh|ssccon
J
p|ayoIthcso|t.
4I
4
4 8
spdes, definitely
spades more than hearts
neither spdes nor hearts
47 hears more than spades
42 heart, definitely
nc can scc that thc 47 woo|d havc cxprcsscd h|s major-so|tho|d|ngs rath
er
bcttcrtbantbc4Z.
[ 18 ] me, PomaMIojm
CHAPTER12
HHLNbNLL HJZ
Th bst in 0Umare bt shws ,
am0wost are R wose, if imgintion amen m.
homAMiumme Nigt's Deam
byW||||am5hakcspcarc( I J4- I I I
. .
. .
. . .

`
`

Lvcnonc |s Iam|||ar w|th thc ass|gnmcnt oIh|gh card p|nts on thc sca|c oI
4-J-Z- I . b|ds |n ppu|arsystcms arc dchncd |n tcms oIthc mngc oItbc HCI
contcnt,Iorcxamp|c,anopn|ngb|doIl M mayhavcamngcoII Z- I 4HCI
inonc systcmand I J- I 7 HCF |nanothcr. Swhcna p|aycrp|cks opa hand,
b
csons|t|ntosu|tstod|scovcrthcpattcmoIsu|t |cngthsandthcnproccdsto
coontupthcHCF Th|sy|c|dsthctwomajorp|cccsoI|nIomat|onthathcw|||
usctodcr|bh|sho|d|ng. Howthat|nIomat|on|suscdtocva|uatcthcp|ay|ng
strcngth oIthc hand |s a mattcr that w||| b cons|dcrcd |atcr |n thc chaptcr.
||rst wc w|sh totrcat HCFcontcnt purc|yasadcscr|ptorwh|ch Iccds |ntothc
comp|cx mattcroI0cx|b|chandcva|uat|on.
5hannon's||nktc||sU that|nIomat|on |s|nvcrsc|yrc|atcdtoprobab|||ty,
tbctota||nIomat|onconta|ncd|nahand|src|atcdtobththcsbapcprobab|||ty
and thc HCF probab|||ty. but onc must b carcm| |n thc dchn|t|on oI HCI
pro
bab|||ty, asoncdosnot mcan thc tota| numbr oIp|nts hc|d |n a|| su|ts.
T
atwou|dbtocasy. ThcavcmgcnumbroIHCIhc|d|s|ndcpcndcntoItbc
sh
apc. Thc rc|cvant HCIprobab|||t|csarc thosc ||nkcd tothc |cngth oIcach
s
u|ttakcn|nd|v|dua||y.
Cmm I 2l H|dCJ Fo|onaMATmta l l b5 |
Tbcre |sa rc|at|onsb|pbctwccntbenumbcroIcarJsbc|J |na su|tanJ
th,
avcragc numbcroIHC| bc|J. |IN |stbcnumbcroIcarJs|na su|t, tbcn
th
c
,
mmcxpcctat|on|s tbat tbcnumbcroIHC| bc|J |ntbat su|t|sN t|mcs
1
0/ 1 3.
Itcnwchrstsbowoursbapc,notourstrcngtb,|ntbcbopcsoIhnJ|ngaht. So
|Ipanncropcns tbc b|dJ|ng w|tba hvc-carJ major, tbc cxpcctat|on |s tbato
,
avcragcbcbo|dsat|cast4HC||ntbcsu|t. Icoursc,wcbavca||uponoccas|o
,
opcncd w|tba top|css hvc-card major, bccausc ourb|dd|ngsystcm rcqu|rcJth
a
|
b|d, but wc don't cnv|s|on tbat |n|t|a||y and onc's partncr docsn't cxp
cct
|
|
.
nc's panncr |scnt|t|cd to assumc tbat ourhvc-card su|tw|||conta|n
c|osc to
tbcavcragcnumbcroIHC|astbat|stbcmost||kc|ys|tuat|on. Somct|
mcsth
|
work|ngbypotbcs|s |sgrcat|y||awcdand|cads tod|mcu|ty|atcr|ntbcauct|o
,
un|csstbc|n|t|a||mprcss|on|sconcctcd.
Ex
p
ectati ons of HCP Distri buti ons
G|vcntbcnumbcroIcards| nasu|t,wbat| stbcprobab|| |tytbosccards|nc| uJc
g|vcnnumbcroIHC|' T|s |stbccxpcctat|onoIHC| |nasu|tw|tboutrccat.|
totbccompos|t|onoItbc dca| asawbo|c. TbcIo||ow|ngtab|csbowsbowthoe
0 mms|ng|c-su|tprobab|||t|csvan.
Percentage with Given HCPs
Sui t
|en
0
Ih Z d 4 b 0 d V Neon evi oI| on
0V. d . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . /J
Z 40. Z . b . b Z. d Z. d Z. 0 . d . d . . . . bJ //4
d ZV. 4 Z.0 Z. 0 b. b. 0. d d. b d. b . 4 . 4 . Z. Jb Z. /
4 . 0 . d . d 0. d 0. d . 0. J 0. d . d . d . d. d
Z. Z
b V. d V. d V. d 0. d 0. d d. V. J V. d Z. d Z. d . d. d40 Z. J/
0 4. V . d . d 4. 4. 4. Z. Z Z. Z 4. V 4. V Z. 4. 0 b
Z. 47
TcpcrccntagcsIor |ongcr su|t|cngtbscan bcobta|ncdcas||yby rcvcrs|ngth.
||ncIor I Jm|nus tbc su|t|cngtb. SoIorsu|t|cngtb B, |ok at tbc ||ncIor
-ui t
|cngtb 5 and go backwards. 0. 7. Z. B, and so on Ior va|ucs oI0, I , Z, . . . H
Cr
Tc avcragc va|ucs arc cas||y obta|ncd hom tbcIomu|a I 0x N/I J,
wbcrc ^
rcprcscntstbcknownsu|t|cngtb.
Tbc tab|csbows tbat tbc sprcad oIva|ucs about tbc mcan |s 'norma| '
|.r
|cngtbsoIJand, but |sskcwcdtotbcr|gbtIor|cngtbsbc|ow J. Stat|st|
ca
| |\
.
i t
|sbcttcrtodca|w|tbtbc'm|dd|c'va|ucsratbcrtbantbcmcan. Tbcvar|ab
|||t\
'

c
asurcdbytbcstanJardJcv|at|onr|scsrap|J|yastbcsu|t|cngtb|ncrcascsIrom
1
3, but||attcnsouttbcrcaItcr.
Tbc skcw, grapb|ca||y d|sp|aycJ w|tb tbc appcarancc oIa brcak|ng wavc
|I
att
cn|ngoutwbcnmov|nghom|cIttor|gbt,|sductotbcIacttbattbcrangcoI
HC
P |s||m|tcJIorsu|t|cngtbsundcrtbrcccards. Wbcndca||ngw|tbas|ng|cton,
th
crcarc
j usttwostatcs.c|tbcrnocouncard|sbc|d|9/ I Jprobab|||tyIoracoun
c
ar
J |s
bc|J|4/ I JI . TbcIu||rangcoI0to I0HC||sn'tposs|b|cunt||Iourcards
arcbc|d.
Tb|sskcwIcaturc, wb|cbrcso|tshomrcstr|ctcdcbo|ccs,|scncountcrcd
also|ntbcstat|st|csoITota|Tr|cks,d|scusscd|ntbcncxtcbaptcr.
Tbc 0
mm d|str|but|on oIHC| |n bands cons|st|ng oIIour su|ts can bc
ob
ta|ncd hom tb|s tab|c, s|ncc tbc d|str|but|on oI HC| |n a pan|cu|ar su|t
|
s |odcpcndcnt oItbcotbcrso|ts. Tbcavcragc va|uc |sa|ways I0 HC| Tbc
.ar|an
ccsarcadd|t|vcand van w|tbtbccompos|t|on, but onccan scchom tbc
|ol |ow|ngtab|ctbat tbccdcctoItbcsboncrso|ts|snot tbatgrcat.
Shap Standard Deviation Shap Standard Deviation
4333 4. 24 4441 4. 05
4432 4. 2 1 543 1 4. 01
5332 4. 1 8 552 1 3. 94
5422 4. 1 4 5530 3. 97
|mmostcommonsbapcs,tbcmcantota|oIHC||sI 0,w|tbastandarddcv|at|on
Hosc to4. Tbc0 mmprobab|||ty w|tboutrcgardtosbapcoIbo|d|ng I0 HC|
| s9.4I %, wbcrcastbcprobab|||tyg|vcn a J440sbapc |s9. 4Z%,an|ns|gn|hcant
J|hcrcncc. TbchgorcsIor I HC|arca|soc|osc,J. J I %andJ. ZB%rcspcct|vc|y,
cvcntbougb|ntbc|attcrs|toat|on,I 0HC|bavcbccnrcmovcdhomcons|Jcrat|on
bccauscoItbcvo|d.
|t |snotjost tbc tota|oIHC|tbat |s|mponant, butbow tboscpo|ntsarc
J|str|butcdamongsttbcso|ts. Iorcxamp|c,cons|dcrabandw|tbI J HC|anJa

-J- I sbapc. Tbccxpcctcdva|ucsIorpo|nts|ncacbso|tIo||owstbcd|str|but|on

cxact|y.,J, J,and I . Tb|swoo|dbcancxamp|c.
+ A Q 9 7 6 4 K 7 3 O QJ 8 +J
||
thc+J wcrcrcduccdtoxstatosandtbc|ongsu|tbccamc4A97,abr|dgc
|
la
vcrwou|dsaytbattbcbandbad |mprovcdcons|dcrab|y. Mov|ng I HC|to
|
"
s|x-card su|t bas not cbangcd tbc ovcra|| probab|||ty |oIa JJ I I J-countI
|ro
tbcor|g|na| I Z. Z%. Howcvcr,tbcbandw|tbpo|nts|ntbc|ongsu|tand
'
|o tbc s|ng|cton |s mucb morc ||kc|y tobc dca|t tban tbc onc sbown abovc.
|
r
o
hab
|||t|csarcadcctcdtoamucbgrcatcrcxtcntbytbccond|t|ons|ntbcsbon
`
|tstbanbytbosc|ntbc|ongso|ts.
ThemeJ|anva|ucso|HCP |orag|vcnsu|t|cngtbarcarougbgu|Jc. 1i

|sharJ| ynccessary|ortbccxpcr|cnccJp|aycr, but tbcproccssJocsg|vcIocusto

thc ma|n |Jca tbat banJsvary |nqua||tyJuc totbcp|accmcntoIpo|ntsw|th|n
ag|vcnbanJpattcm.
Medi an Patern Patern Patern
Sui t HCP (9 HCP) ( 1 2 HCP) ( 1 6 HCP)
6 5 6 67 8-9
5 4 4 5 7
4 3 3 4 5
3 2 2 3 4
2 1 1 1 2
0 0 0
nc may usc tbc Mcd|an Iattcms to ca|cu|atc dcparturcs hom wbat can be
cxpcctcJ |ntbcwayoIHCIIorag|vcnd|str|but|onoIcardsconta|n|ngatot+|
g|vcn numbcr oI HC| as was Jonc abovc. Lrgc dcparturcs rcprcscnt |arce
J|scrcpanc|cshomwbat partncrcxpcctshomtbcb|dd|ngoItbcbanJ. |os|t|vc
J|scrcpanc|cs|ntbc|ongsu|tsarccons|dcrcdtobc'good',|ntbcsbortsu|ts,'baJ'.
TbcscJcparturcsarctbccauscoImanycrrors,astbc|nIormat|oncontcnto|thc
b|Js|s|ow. Your 1 opcn|ngb|dw|||bctbcsamcwbctbcryoursu|t|sbcaJcJbv
a tcnorapowcrm|comb|nat|onoIbonors.
bvcn aItcrtbc b|dJ|ng bas d|sc|oscd tbc sbapcoIa band, tbc partncrsarc
oItcn st||| gucss|ng about bow tbc HCI arc d|str|botcd among tbc su|ts. |t i -
cxpcctcJtbattbcJ|str|but|onoIHCIm|rrontbc|cngtboItbcsu|ts. |Isuchi-
tbccasc, tbcrcw|||bcnosurpr|scs|ntbcdummyand||tt|cmorcnccdbcadJcJ
to tbc Jcscr|pt|on oItbc band tbrougb subscqucnt b|ds. |Itbcd|str|but|ooo|
HC|J|dcrsgrcat|yIromcxpcctat|on,tbcnpartncrmaybcvcrysurpr|scdbywhat
comcsJown|ntbcJummyun|cssotbcm|sc|nIormcd. Sorpr|scand|nIormat|on
arc ||nkcJ. tbc grcatcr tbc surpr|sc on d|sc|osorc, tbc grcatcr tbc |nIormat|on
J|sc|oscJ. To |||ustratc tbc gcncra| pr|nc|p|cs, |ct's cxam|nc a oncc popu|ar
||m|tcJopcn|ngb|dtbat|sIa|r|ywc||dchncdw|tbrcgardtod|str|but|on.
I nformati on and Flannery 20 Bi ds
Inj0t|ontcs|dcs|ndcpattutcshom0B.
Tbc||anncryZ0opcn|ngb|d| sdchncdassbow|ng l l - I J HCIw|tbIour[
3
J
'
anJhvcbcarts. Arcspondcrcnv|s|ons4-J-Z-Zsbapcandmayassomcw|tb'
bopc oIcons|stcncy tbat tbc b|ddcr b lJ HCI tbat arc d|str|butcd
Iour
|
n
I 1 88 I nge, Pmm|||aMIojmaoo
s
p
g
Jcs, hvc |n bcans and Iour |n tbc m|nors. Lct's |ook at two hands with 1 3
C|
tbatbotbqua||hundcrtbcdchn|t|onoIanopcn|ng||anncryb|d.
Hand I HCP Departres % Hand I I HCP Departres %
Ax
5 + 1 1 0. 1 Jxx 1 -3 1 1 . 8
< AQxx 6 + 1 9. 3 C Qxx 2 -3 9. 8
x
0 -2 46. 2 A 5 +3 2. 6
Qx 2
Q
1 1 . 5 . KQ 5 +3 2. 6
Su
m of Departres
4 1 2
Te percentages shown are taken fom the table of 0mmpercentages of HC||n
J
su|ttaken in isolation. The prouct of the percentages gives a Dugh gu|Jcasto
thcrelative probabilities of the two conditions. this bas|s,HanJI |sabouts|x
t|mcs more likely than Hand II, the critical factors being the oncxpcctcJ|yh|gb
n
umber of HCIin the shon suits of the latter.
The sum of the depanures fom the expected nombcr of HC| |n cacb
s
u|t is a go indication of the amount of information tbatst||| rcma|ns to bc
J|sc|oscdeven though the two distributions fall within the naDow Jchn|t|onoI
thcbid. The sum represents the number of points displaced fomtbc|rcxpcctcJ
|ocat|on.
The Aanner Z0bid is limited to fve possible shapes with tbc Io||ow|ng
probab|lities of ocurence:
.-5-2-2
.-5-3- 1
.5-
43%
26%
3%
.-5- 1 -3
4-5-
26%
3%
A|though the single most likely shape is 4-J-Z-Z, overall the probability oI
5hlnage in a minor is J7%. An inquir bid of ZNTis available for dctcrm|n|ng
wb|cb shape applies, but that still dos not specif the depanures oItbc HC|
from
their expected values. To alleviate possible problems, you might restrict
thcZ0opening to hands where bth majors represent playable trump suits. In
panicular, you could require that the spade suit be headed by the queen or a
h|
gbcrhonor, since the quality of the trmp suit is much more imponant in a 4-4
|t.
This eliminates abut Z0%of the qualifing hands, the obvious alterative
for the exclusions bing a Ivopening bid. An alterative approach is to retain
thc
m||range of depanures fom nonality, but design the responses to the ZNT
|n
quiry bid to include inforation abut the quality of the spade suit, along tbc
| |ncs
of the Ogust inquir afer a weak-two opening bid. Depanures fom tbc
n
orm
in the hean suit are less critical.
CmmI2 l H|dCJFo|ouaMAT|aO an | I b9 I
TheObligati on to I nform
Imtcsauanygood|m|camcojmngnr.
john Dden | I J I - I 700I
The holder of a limited hand has the obligation of informing his panner of an
,

disparity between the expected noral holding and reality. The Ptinci
p
|
(
1
;
1
Fast Arival has a diferent basis, which is a jump to game with a minim
u
m
i
n
the context of the bidding so far. The jumper makes his best estimate b
ase
d
o
n
what he can see before him and on what panner has told him. The weaker hanJ
represents the weaker compnent and shouldn't attempt to manage the auctio
n
,
but rather should be inforative.
As noted by Amalya Keare in her wonderfl compilation ngcLontcn|ion
LmkM, in earlier days, a jump to 4NT ( the Culbenson 4-5NT conventi on)
soucd a minimum holding of three aces or two aces and a king in a sui t |
iJ
naturlly by the pannerhip. This allowed either panner to make decision'
based on the inforation provided by the j ump. Since its introduction, thl
simpler Blackwod 4NT has dominated and the Culbnson 4NT has lost favor,
one reason being that the user needn't b restricted by such requirements. bomc
player love to make decisions abve all else, ofen leaving their panners anJ
the defenders in the dark. Their argument has always ben that it is wrng to
give away inforation that reduces the chances of making the contract. Let\
see how that worked in an example fom top-level play. I think you might gue
the answer already.
In the Z07European Mixed Teams, the Rusian pair of Alexander Lbin in
and Tatiana Ponomoreva showed how fll knowledge of the suit strength a||ow
for an accurate evaluation in the slam zone.
Dubinin
A K J
< A K 9 4
0 Q 1 0 5 4
A 8
D
Ponomor
1 0 7 4 J
V
0 A K J
K QJ 7 5 4
l l90 ) me,P|||aMIojmoo
Ponomorva
ubInIn
2+
2<*
2.
2NT*
3NT* 4+*
s

7NT
{
,
2+ opening was Precision, showing 1 1 - 1 5 HCP and usually six clubs, and
)/ w
as an
enquir with game-going values. Ponomoreva continued to show
,
er
distrib
ution with 2 a four-card suit. This is rather a misdescription in that
,
held no HCP in her major suit. No problem this time, as Dubinin didn't
e
x
p
ect much ther and he could enquire fnher with a forcing 2NT The 3NT
r
e
sp
onse
showed diamond values; 4+ asked abut clubs and 5+ showed length
'
nJ
strength in the suit. This asking bid has ben arund a long time, being
J
e
scribed by Ron Anderen and C. C. Wei in their 1 983 bok, Ma Fo|nt
Ptcc|s|on. Knowing where the values lay, Dubinin could blast to 7NT without
tar oIcorection. The bidding was routine rather than brilliant. Accuracy, not
hrilliance, should be the aim in slam bidding.
To state that asking bids can at times provide the information necessar to
get to the appropriate level in the apprpriate strain is stating the obvious in
t
,
manner of moms lecturing on mittens, hankies and scares. If one thinks
o|bids as prviding inforation rather than deciding a contract, one is on the
right track.
Confi cti ng Methods at the USBC 2007
Fm|utcu0jouMoonjm smccss .
- Japanese Proverb
Historically, even during the glor days of the Italian Blue Team, British experts
have been ver much oppsed to asking bids. The British view has been that
natural auctions are shoner, which is usually tre, and more accurate, which
clearly on the evidence isn't. When two strong-willed individuals involve
them
selves early in decision-making, there is twice the chance of getting it
wro
ng in the end.
One of the most amusing deals of the centur so far ocurred on a slam
com
bination where the lengths and strengths were in confict, so the deal will
s
e
r
e
as a god illustrtion of the phenomena. Meckwell were involved, this
deal
contributing to the eventual victor of their team in the trials for US
r
e
pr
esentation at the 207 Shanghai World Championships. First let's consider
h
ow
a pair using standard methos might bid a pair of hands with 1 3 HCP each
t
h
at confor to expctations of strength within length.
CmmI 2 l H|dCJFo|ouATM!a ( l 9l ]
A 8 7
I A 7 5 3
3
+ K Q 5 4 3
1 + 1 1
21
2.
4 41
pass
D
K J 9 3
I K QJ 1 0 9 8
K 6 2
-
Bth players have 1 3 HCP distributed nearly according to the length of
thei r
suits. Te bids are natural and conform to shape. This should ba situation when:
naturl bidding methods based on normal expectations do well. Responder ml\'
be tempted to proceed farther on the strength of the KJ combination, but i
appears there is wastage in the minor and slam may be no better than a fnesse
and not worth bidding. Without aces, he has no convenient bid, unless 3NT
over 3 can be taken as a mild slam tr, an agreement suggested by Kit Woolsey.
Let's look at an actual layout fom the Z07USB trials (hands rotated) when:
the shapes are the same but the distribution of the HCP do not conform lt \
expectations. Natural methos may, as expected, not work well .
A K J
D
Q 9 6 3
I A 7 5 3 I K QJ 1 0 9 8
3 K Q 2
+ J 8 5 4 3 -
MomI Nom $mnaby Su
1 + pss 1 1 pss
21 pass 2. pass
2NT1 pass 31 pass
3. pss 4+ pass
41 al l pss
1 . Artificial, showing maximum fr a single raise.
The expert coperative auction didn't come to gips with the confict between
length and strength in the club suit. ` Neither player was able to take charge an
J
each had reserations abut the minor-suit situation. That is to b expe
c|c
J
. Note: a difrent auction is presentd on pge of the Jan Zb issue of P ^
WodJ
[ l 9Z I me, From|||aMIojmam
.\en
with an expen pair. Can they guess better than the rest of us? Maybe, but
rh
ey
still require basic inforation. Te anifcial Meckwell Precision auction
p
r
ov
i
des the required asking bid methods and the amusement.
Metksm koeII
2(1 2NJ
3fl 4 . (dbl)
pass5 4(
4< 4
5(9
xmt e
1 . Precision 2<, short i n di amonds, 1 1 - 1 5 HCP.
2. Aski ng bi d.
3. 3-- 1 -5 and a maxi mum.
4. Nebulous sl am ty.
5. No cl ub control .
x
. Agrees hearts, 'tell me more' .
7. Top heart.
8. Keycard enquiry in hearts.
9. Two keycards without %.
1 0. With the K opposite, slam must b O laydown.
Te action was broadcast via Bridge Base Online with expen commentar
p
rovided by Kit Wolsey, who plays Precision Z0with his regular panner, Fred
Stewan. Early on he stated, 'There is absolutely no way to investigate on this
hand. ' He may have been corct with regard to bids with a natural base, but
what if Meckwell could employ asking bids to discover there were no wasted
values in clubs?
The auction did not develop that well, as Rodwell reached the four-level
before he could show slam interest, whereas in the other rom Stansby had used
t
he bid of Zto stan the slam inquiry. But now Rodwell got some help fom the
opposition. Baseball fans may be reminded of outfelder Jose Canseco's efon,
when, going back on the waring track for a routine catch, he lost sight of the
b
all
at the last instant, with the result that said ball tok a l ively bounce of
his
skull up into the stands for a home run. Here, the victim of his own eforts
was Brad Moss, who felt an uncontrollable ure to inform his panner that he
h
ad a god holding in clubs. Like Jose, Brad temporarily lost sight of the ball.
M
eckwell were informed as well. This allowed them the space for the extra
as
k
ing bids that eventually led to the slam that was obvious to the viewer. If
M
oss
and Gitelman can join in the laughter, I predict a world championship for
t
h
e
m in the nottodistant fture.
CmmI2 l H|dCJFo|ouaMATmt!an l l 9J |
Let's be|abor thc po|nt. |Ia partncrsh|pb|Jsnatura||y, tbcy arc b|JJ|n
g
|n
accorJancc w|th norma| expcctat|ons w|tb rcgarJ to thc J|str|but|on oI
HC
P
amongthcsu|ts. |artncrsarca||owcdtoassumcwbat|smostprobab|c. Howcver
|IthcJ|str|but|onoIHC|Icaturcs|argcJcparturcsIrom norma|cy, cvcn
cxp
ert
w||| havc J|mcu|tyconvcy|ng tb|s to a partncrw|tboot tbc oscoIask|n
g bid
s.
C|car|y |t |s nota gooJ stratcgy on tbcpart oIan opponcnt to vo|ontccr th
e
|nIormat|on tbat bc bas a god bo|d|ng |na |ongso|t tbcy bavc bccn b|d
J|ng
natura||y,on|css|t |s too |atc|n tbcaoct|onIortbcmtotakcconcct|vcact|on.
Lct's|ookattbc dcpanorcs |ntbctwo I J-HCIbands.
Mkm kwII
Suit Length HCP Deearture Length HCP Deearture
3 8 +5 4 2 -2
c 4 4 0 6 6 0
1 0 - 1 3 5 +2
5 - 0 0
Q
Totl Departures 1 0 4
Kodwc||'sbandconIormswc|| totbccxpcctat|on|ntbcd|str|bot|onoIH
C
P SO
onccxpcctsb|sb|dd|ngtobc|nIomat|vccvcn|nanatom|sctt|ng. Mcckstroth's
band bas a |argc dcpartorc hom norma||ty oI wb|cb Kodwc|| |s onawarc.
Tbc prob|cm |n a s|am aoct|on |s bow to |nIom Kodwc|| oItb|s abnorma| |tv
- strcngtb |n spadcs, notb|ng wastcd |n c|obs. Tb|s |s wbcrc tbc csscnt|a|
|nIormat|onrcs|dcs.
Long Suits versus Short Suits
TbcHCIcontcnt oIa band |s conc|atcd to tbc |cngtb oItbcso|ts. |Iooc
cons|dcn tbcd|v|s|on oIs|dcs |nd|cat|ngtwo |ongso|tsand twosbortsu|ts,
tbcd|v|s|onoItbcHCIcanbccxpcctcdtob rc|atcdtotbcd|hcrcncc|nthc
nombcroIcards |n tbc |ongso|tsand tbcnombcr|n tbc sbonso|ts. Tbos|Ith
c
d|v|s|on|sB7J, tbcrcarc I J cards|ntbc|ongso|tsand I I |ntbcsbort
su|ts,
l
tbcHCIsboo|dbcd|v|dcdroogb|y|ntbcsamcpmpn|on. W|tbZ I H
C|
hc|J.
cxpcct IZ |ntbc|ongso|tsand9 |ntbcsbonso|ts. IItbcm arc proport|ona||t
morc |ntbc|ongso|ts,tbccond|t|onsarcIavomb|cIorb|dd|ngb|gbcr, whcrea
|Itbcrcarcpropon|ona||y|css|ntbc|ongso|u,oncsboo|dsobs|dc. Tbc
nor
ma|
casc |s wbcrc onc nccds tocxcrc|sc jodgmcnt bascd onstat|st|ca| ana|
ys|s
ao
J
pcrsona|cxpcr|cncc. Hcrcarctbctbrccs|toat|onscxcmp||hcd.
I I 94 I ne, Fmm|||Iojmam
ll lll
MveNomoI
NomoI $ubNomoI
A Q x x x K x
A x x x x K x Q x x x x K x
(
K Q x x CIA x x x K x x x CI Q x x x CIA x x x CIJ x x x
0
J x
< x x x x < K x < x x x x < K x < A J x x
x x
+Q x x + Q x + A x x +K x +x x x
Case Long Suits 1 8 Shor Suits J. This is a situation where bidding to the
three-level should b corct. Making ten tricks is not in the cards as it might be
if the opener had shornes in diamonds. Note the attractiveness of a holding of
K
-Q
-x-x in a 4-4 ft.
Case Long Suits 1 2, Short Suits 9. The hearts are on the weak side, but nine
tricks may be made if the <K lies bhind the <A, or the defenders help out in
some way.
Case Long Suits 1 0, Shor Suits 1 1 . The minor-suit honors may produce
defensive tricks that defeat 3+ by two tricks and could also help in a hear
contract, but the weakness of the heart suit itself is problematic.
A critical factor to consider when contemplating playing in a 4-4 ft is the quality
of the intermediate cards. Tens and nines are of prime value when present in
conjunction with higher honor. A 4- 1 split of the defenders' holding in the
suit is fairly fequent, in which C one needs to b able to withstand advere
conditions.
The Single Raise in Competition
Te need for accurcy is not as gat in competitive bidding as in constrctive
bi
dding bcause one is not cerain which side will bcome the declaring side.
Pus
hing the oppnents over their limit is one of the aims, so one can proft fom
m
isjudgment fed by misinforation. That MR to be the theor behind many
bad bids. L the other hand, god defense is based on reliable inforation. If
you overcall on a bad suit, you must b prepard for a costly opening lead fom a
t
rsting parner.
A common ocurnce is a single raise of partner's bid suit meant to remove
bidding space fom the oppsition as well as stake out an area for frher
co
mpetition, if appropriate. What dos a single raise promise? Usually three
t
rmps, but what abut honor? Is the support Q-x-x or better?
The Supprt Duble is a ppular way to show the number of cards held in
s
up
p
ort of a rspnder's suit afer an opponent intereres in one's auction:
CMmI 2l H|dCJFo|ouaMATM!azz | l95 ]
West
1 <
db l
Norh
D055
pcncr'sdoub|csbowstbrccbcarts.
East
1 <
|ncdcct, tbcSupport Doub|cg|vcsopcncrtwowaystomakcas|ng|crais
e
oIrcspondcr'ssu|t. |satt|tudcposs|b|c' Must opcncrdoub|c cvcn |Ib|s hearts
arc tbrcc sma|| ' T|s r|sks gctt|ng ovcrboard at tbc tbrcc-|cvc| |Ispades arc
ra|scd. |nb|sbookDouh|c'NcuMcan|ngjotanOl Bi, M|kcLawrcnccsuggests
opcncrmayj odgc topass w|tb tbrccsma||bcarts, but sbou|ddoub|ccvcnwith
a m|n|mom opcncr |I a|| tbc HC| arc 'work|ng', b|s cxamp|c bo|d|ng bei
n
g
I 0. T|sadv|cc|s|nkccp|ngw|tbnorma|cxpcctat|ons|nwb|cbtbcHCP
| |c|ntbcsu|tb|d. |Ioncb|dsotbcm|sc,tbc|nIormat|onconvcycd|s|cssanJt
h
e
onccrta|nty|sgrcatcr.
Four-Card Raises
Mayyou ||vc|ncxc|t|ngt|mcs .
anc|cntCb|ncsccursc
Tcrc |s w|dcsprcad approva| oI 'wcak' jump ra|scs to tbc tbrcc-|cvc| when
bo|d|ngIour-card support Ior partncr'shvc-card su|t. W|tba n|nc-card ft, the
tbrcc-|cvc| |s not on|ysaIc, buta|so appropr|atc, |t |stbougbt. Tbcargumcot
app||cs |ncompct|t|onas wc|| as |nconstruct|vcaoct|onsw|tbout |ntcrIcrcncc.
Tcs|tuat|on|ss|mp||hcdbytbcIacttbattbcrcspondcranddcIcndcrsbo|JIom
cards|ntbcsu|t,wb|cbmakcstbcana|ys|scasy.
Supposc tbat tbc |n|t|atorbo|ds asu|tbcadcd byA-j . Hcrc arctbcnormal
cxpcctat|ons w|tb|n tbc su|t Ior rcspondcr's band w|tb rcgard to bonor carJs
|w|tbout rcgard to tbc m|| dca| I . |robab|||ty cst|matcs arc vcry rougb, as no
account|stakcnoItbctcnsandn|ncs.
kougbadmmof
mbbIeLsr
I ni tiator Reseonder Probabi l i!
. j . 2
Axx KQx 2 1 % 1 . 0
K 29% 0. 6 0. 4
Qxx 29% 0. 27 0. 6 0. 1
x 2 1 % 0. 53 0. 37 0. 1
Oerall 0. 46 0. 41 0. 1 0. 02
Kcspondcr |scxpcctcdtobo|dtbck|ngba|IoItbct|mc. Kougb|y Iourt|mes
in
n|nc,tbc|n|t|atorcxpcctsto|oscnotr|cks. Los|ngtwotr|cks|ntbcsu|tbappeo

rougb|yonct|mc|ntcn. Assbownncxt,w|tbtoocb|ngbonon|ntbc|on
g
han
J
.
| l 9 | rme, From|||Iojmaoo
[c
.
|tuat|on | s |
etter
. ResponJcr |s cxpcctcJ to ho|J the acc ha||o|the t| mc,
,h|chgrcat| v
|ncreasesthcchancco|no|oscrs| nthcsu|t.
kougbEstma of
mbbIewaera
I ni ti
ator Reseonder Probabi l i!
. J. .. .
K
Q
xx
Ax 2 1 % 1 . 0
A 29% 0. 95 0. 05
J
xx
29% 0. 95 0. 05
x 2 1 % 0. 76 0. 1 9 0. 05
Oeral l 0.49 0. 45 0. 05 0. 01
]hc kcy ho|J|ng |nconstruct|vc b|Jd|ng |sa hrst- orscconJ-rounJcontro|,an
!
ccork| ng. Accsandk|ngsarcknownas'contro|s'anJarcg|vcnIu||va|uc|n
thc|o||ow|ngmctboJoIcva|uat|on.
LTC - The losi ng Tri ck Count
Tmtw s|mp||c|oj0LTCmassomcpcop|csup|c|oas .
M. Harr|son-Gray( 1 900 - 1 968)
TcLos|ngTr|ckCount | LTCI|samctbodoIbandcva|uat|onrc|atcJto]ayncs'
|r|nc|p|c, |ntbat tbc uscrbascsb|scva|uat|onon wbat |smost probab|cg|vcn
thccurrcntstatcoIpart|a|know|cJgc. Tb|s|snottbcp|accIoram||Jcscr|pt|on
| suchas|sg|vcn|nKonK||ngcr'sTmMoLosctCoun|), but tbcmctboJ |sa
mauraJvancc |nbandcva|uat|on|ntbccontcxtoItrumpsu|tcontracts. |tbas
d bas|s|nprobab|||tytbcory,butwcarcconccmcdbcrcw|tbwby|tworksrathcr
t
hanhow|tworks,soon|yacursontrcatmcntoItccbn|qucs|sprcscntcJ.
MostrcaJcrsw||| bc Iam|| |ar w|tb tbc LTC conccpt, a mctboJ Jcv|scJ |n
| "! 7Iorcst|mat|ng tbc numbcroIw|nn|ng tr|cksava||ab|c |n trumpcontracts
hcnsma||trumpsarcpromotcdtotbcstatusoIw|nncrstbrougbtbcproccssoI
t
Hog|oscrshom tbc bandoppos|tc. As w|tbTbc LawoITota|Tr|cks, tbcrc

rcno abso|utc guarantccs. Tbc mctboJ |sva||Jwbcn p|ay|ng |na trumpsu|t

t
hatcannotbcJcp|ctcdtoacr|t|ca||cvc|bytbcopponcnts|caJ|ngtrumps. Tbc
ccrctoIsucccss|stoprojccttbcp|ay|ntcrmsoIwbat|smostprobab|c,anJ tbus
t
h
crc|saconncct|onw|tbbb's||nJKu|c.
A major promotcr oI tbc mctbod was Maur|cc Harr|son-Gray, a |caJ|ng
|lav
crandautbor|tyoIb|st|mc. |nb|sAugust3 1
,
1 961 co|umn |nCoun|^ L|jc
|
c
wrotc, 'A good p|aycrdocs not makc tbc samc ca|| |ntbcsamc contcxton
|
"
ubanJsw|tbamarkcJd|dcrcncc|nqua||ty. ' ytb|s,bcmcanttbattwobanJs
| th
tbc samc numbcr oIHC| can d|dcr grcat|y |n tbc|r capac|ty Ior tak|ng
Chapter I Hig Card Poinr and A||That }a | 1 97 I
tricks, so hidding methods must he capahle of conveying this diference.
Tis
is the anti thesis of the approach of the late AI Roth who often expressed the
wish, ' if
I
can only get through this round', indicating that hi s hand was not
wel l
Jcscr|hcd |ntbcstrcture employed. Here is anexamp|cgi ven hy Harison-
Gr
ay
tosupport b|sargumcnt.
Weat oat
A K J 8
D
1 0 9 5 3 2
( 9 8 2 ( 1 0 5
0 4 3 0 A K 1 0 7
+ A K 9 3 6 2
6 1osers' 8 1osers
West Nom ost Wm
1 + pass 1 . pass
2. all pass
Two r|t|sb tcams oI|ntcmat|ona| stanJarJstoppcd |n acontractoI2 when
c|cvcn tr|cks wcrc ava||ab|c. btb agrccd tbc gamc was unb|JJab|c w|thjus
t
I J HCI oppos|tc 7. Harr|son-Gray tbougbt otbcm|sc. Wcstsbou|J have b|J
ancncourag|nganJJcscr|pt|vc3 tosbowa s|x-|oscrbanJ, bc ma|nta|ned, bl
bastcou|dbavcb|dgamcautomat|ca||y,hvctmmps|nanc|gbt-|oscrbanJ. Te
numbcroItr|ckscxpcctcJ accord|ng to tbc LTC mctbod |s twcnty-Iourminus
tbctota| oI|oscrs |IourtccnI , namc|y tcn. |stbattos|mp|c' Howdoes one
count|oscrsandwbysubtracthomtwcnty-Iour' Wcsba||gcttotbatshortly.
Opening Light in a Natural Setting
|t |soItcnobscncJtbattbcs|Jctbatopcnstbcb|Jd|ngbasad|st|nctaJvantacc
dur|ng tbc auct|on. Tb|saJvantagc |sbc|gbtcncJ |Itbc cxpcctat|ons created
rc0cctrca||ty, tbat |s, |ItbcHCIgoa|ongw|tbtbc|ongsu|ts. Natura|hidding
sbou|dworkwc||unJcrtbcscc|rcumstanccs,systcmsa||ow|ng,so|t|ssurprising
toscctbat|nmanycascscvcncxpcrtp|aycrsarc|nb|b|tcdbyHCIrcstr|ct|oo-
|t|sbcttcrtousctbc|os|ngtr|ckcount|ntmmpcontractswbcnstrcngtbmatch
c-
|cngtb. |ntbcIo||ow|ngJca|,agrands|am|sposs|b|conamcrc Z4HC|
dca|,Irom Tm F|tst IFM ookojU ng Ham | I 9BJI , Icaturcd tbc
Iamoc-
actormarSbar|I|npanncrsb|pw|tbIatr|ckSussc| .
. The rationale fr this evaluation will b explaine shortly.
| l9b l rmge,Prom|||aMInjmaoo
J 4 3 2
A 7
I -
I J 4
0 A Q 8 7 0 K 1 0 9 6 5
+ K 1 0 9 7 3 + A Q 8 6
6 1osers 6 1osers
$uaaeI Nom $bom Wm
pass pass 1 0 pass
2+ pass 3+ pass
30 pass 3. pss
41 pass 5+ pass
51 pss 5+ pass
al l pass
T
e opponents added a cenain degree of uncenainty by not entering the bidding
with eleven hearts between them! If West dosn't opn the bidding on this rich
hand, how dos he subsequently show the fll ptential ? A jump to +over J4
bypasses the usually desirble 3NT, but with Et known to have at most four
cards in the major, that's not such a bad thing here. The critical point in the
auction came afer Sussel bid a non-forcing 30, hoping to get into one more
rund of bidding, and Sharif stretched to show a spade control, hoping perhaps
for JNTif some secondar help in spades was fonhcoming. It may have appeared
to Sharif that clubs was the ageed suit, but Sussel showed othetise.
The bidding might have ben more relaxed if West had opened the bidding
in a minor suit. The point to b made is that the HCP in the two long minor
suits are up to expectations, and the fact that there is a pint or two fewer in the
majors than might b expected is not a major concer. The loser count of twelve
indicates that twelve tricks may be available. Once the double ft is discovered,
the pannerhip may well realize that there is ptential for even more. This
method works well when the HCP strength and suit length are well matched
in
the suits being shown, which is the essential advantage gained by the LTC
m
ethod.
Co
unting Losers
Ho
w do you count losers? You consider only the top three cards in each suit: aces
an
d kings and accompanying queens are defned as winners. Any others count
as
losers up to a maximum of three. Let's lok at Harison-Gray's 'unbiddable
g
ame' example:
Cmm H|dCJFo|ouan ATmt}att I 1 99 I
West Lsers East Lsers
. A K J - 8 ( 1 ) . 1 0 9 5 - 32 (3)
I 9 8 2 (3) I 1 0 5 (2)
4 3 (2) A K 1 0 - 7 ( 1 )
+ A K 9 - +3
il
+ 6 2
m
Total 7 Total 8
Harr|sonGraysobtractcda|oscr|ntbcWcstbandontbcgroondstbatbchc|J
ba|IoItbccontro|s|ntbcdcck. Tbccorrcctrcb|d|ntbatcontcxtwastbcrcIore
J. bast w|tbc|gbt |oscn woo|d tbcn know to ra|sc togamc. |tworks oItco.
Wby' Wcsba||d|scoss tb|s |ntcrmsoItbcsoggcst|ontbatoncsboo|dcons|Jer
p|ay|ngIorwbat|smost||kc|y| bb's||ndKo|cI .
Lcoorsc,potcnt|a||ytbcrcarcrca||yJ. ZJ|oscrs| ncacbso|t,s|ncctbcrcare
tb|rtccnpotcnt|a|tr|cksto|osconcacbdca|,bottbcscnombcrsarcawkwarJlO
band|c -bcs|dcs,wcarcstr|v|ngIors|mp||c|ty| tbc4JZ1 HCIcount |s|tsc||
as|mp||hcat|onI . |t|ss|mp|csttoroondtotbrcc,g|v|ngosamax|mumtota|o|
twc|vc|oscrspcrband,ortwcntyIoor|na||. A non|oscr |saw|nncr,sowccao
approx|matc tbcnombcroIw|nncrsava||ab|cbyadd|ngtbc|oscrshomtbctwo
bandsand tbcn sobtract|ngtbc tota| hom Z4. |n Han|sonGray'scxamp|c,we
bavc |aItcradj ostmcntI
+
B I 4|oscrs, andtbcrcIorc tcnpotcnt|a|w|nncrs
cnoogbIorgamc|nspadcs.
KonK||ngcr'sd|scoss|on|nTmMoLs|ngTnckCountgctsmorc|nvo|vcJ,
andbcadv|scsp|aycrstoaddandsobtmct I /Z |oscrsondcrsomcc|rcomstanccs.
Myv|cw|stbattbcLTC sboo|dbctrcatcd3cmp|r|ca|andkcpts|mp|c.|t'sam|e
oItbomb,notam|cromctcr.
Inside the 12-Box and Outside the 12-Box
Wbcnonc ||m|tstbccards|nc|odcd|n tbc |oscrcoonttotwc|vc,oncpotstwc|vc
cards'|ns|dctbcbox',nomorctbantbrcc|nanyso|t,5 tbcrcrcma|ns|n|t|a||v
onc or morc cards 'oots|dc tbc box' . Lt's |||ostratc tbc procss w|tb s|mp|e
cxamp|cswbcrcsccm|ng|y|ns|gn|hcantcardsarcdcnotcdbyan'x'. Spadcsar

tmmps.
A x x
I d

+ A x x
9 1osers
+ x
l Z00 ) mc, PomaMIojmaoo
K Q x
I
A x x
+ x x O
& losers
x
[
bctruncat|onoItbcsu|tstoatmosttbrcccarJs|ns|Jctbcbox|ntb|ss|tuat|on
|cavcs twocarJs outs|Jc tbc box. Ancmpty spacc |ns|Je tbc box, JcnotcJ by
most bc h||cJ Irom oots|Jc tbc box. Asonccnv|s|onstbcp|ay, w|tb tromps
movcd|ns|Jctbcbox, abcartandac|obcanbcrodcd,br|ng|ngtbctota|nombcr
oIw|n
ncrstoscvcn,prov|dcdtbcrcarcnoovcrrodsasaconscqocnccoIbadsp||ts.
[
bc
abs
cnccoIbadsp||ts|stbcmostpmbab|cs|toat|on,asd|scosscdcar||crw|tb
rcgard tojayncs' Ir|nc|p|c.Tbc|oscrcoont | Z4 I 7 7I tbcrcIorc g|vcs tbc
corrcct
nombcroIw|nncnondcrtbcscIavomb|c, botnorma|,cond|t|ons. Lct's
co
ns|dcracbangc tbat ahcctstbc rc|at|onsb|p. |ct's g|vc tbc bast band a4JJJ
shapc.
4 A x x
x x O
0 xxx
+ A x x
9 1osers
+ x
4 K Q x
x x x
< A x x
x x x
9 1osers
Thc LTC |nd|catcs j ost s|x tr|cksarc ava||ab|c | Z4- I BI , botonccancoont, on
stra|gbtIomardp|ay,tbrccspadcs,abcartroh, twoaccs,andarcma|n|ngtromp
homoots|dc tbcbxoItbcLstbandtbatscncs a w|nncrontbctb|rtccntb
tr|ck, prov|dcd tbc opponcnts' tmmps arc sp||t J-Z. Anotbcr approacb to
comb|n|ng tbc |oscnhom tbc mo bands |s to |ok at tbc 'covcrcards' |n tbc
|astband -oIwb|cbtbcrcarctbrcc. Sobtract|ngtboschomWcst'sn|nc|oscn
gctsostos|x|oscn,orscvcntr|cks.
The Number of Total Tricks
Tc abvcbandsIom a s|dcoIB7J. |t |s |ntcrcst|ngto scc |I tbc LTC g|vcs
thcsamcprcd|ct|onIortbcopponcnts'bands,wb|cbarca|soB7J. TbcLawoI
Tota|Tr|cks' |nd|catcstbattbcsomoItota|tr|ckssboo|dbcs|xtccn,so |Itbcrc
arcscvcn tr|cks ava||ab|c |n spadcs, tbcopponcnts sboo|d bcab|c to takc n|nc
tr|cksw|tbbcans tmmps. Lt'sassomctbcd|str|bot|onoItbcs|dcs|s'norma|'.
4 J x x 4 x x O
A Q x C x K J x
< K Q x < J x x
+ J x x + K Q x
8 1osers 8 1osers
.
The UY is di sussed in M deti l in the next chaptr.
C x
+ x
CmmI2 l H|dCJFo|ouaMATM!azz ( 20 I )
Tbccxpcctat|on |s tbat tbcsc banJs w|||proJucc n|ncw|nncrs | ZJ- I I as
th
c
trumpouts|JctbcWcstboxcountsasancxtraw|nncr. ryoucou|Jsaythatth
c
LstbanJproJuccsIourcovcrcarJs -tbrccb|gbcardsanJtbcm|ss|ngspaJc -
leaving West with four losers anJtherefore nine tricks.
How to Outperorm the LTC
One may do better than the LTC indicates by making fll use of the tmmpsb
v
establishing a long side suit or by crossrfng. Another way to play is not to Jraw
trmps early and to convert a trmp companion card into a winner. Here |sao
example of an BBJJdeal where spades are trumps .
A Q 8
f K J 9
7 5 4
6 d d
7 1osers
K J 9
f A Q 8
6 d d
+ A 5 4
6 1osers
+3
There are two losing clubs, but only one trmp available 'outside the box th+t
can b used for rufng. Similarly for diamonds. Eleven tricks appear to bcthc
limit. However, the quality of the major suits may allow for an extra ruf bcIore
trmps are drawn. Suppse a top diamond wins the frt trick and the JcIcnJer
switches to a trmp. West (declarer) wins with the 4, plays the +A and takcs
rf. A heart can be played to dummy and another club rfed, then the proccs-
repeated, taking a third rf with the A. A diamond ruf gets dcc|arcrb+ck
to dummy to draw the remaining trumps with the KJ while pitching a |os|nc
diamond, which has become a companion card. In this way, twelve tr|ckscan
be taken.
[ 202 ) nc, PomaMIojmaoo
A
n LTC Horor Show
T|cavanmgcojhc|ngdccmtct|st|att|ctcatct|tccuaystou|n
c|t|ctyougct|tt|g|t0 0dcjcndctsgct|tuong
Dealer: North
Neither Vul nerable
A K Q 5
< A
Q 9 8 6
9 8 6 2
6 1osers
Weat
dbl
al l pass
. . . andtmtcatctuooj0m.
J 8 7 6
< Q 1 0 5 2
2
+ A K Q 1 0
7 1osers
D
1 0 9 3 2
C K 6 4 3
A K J 1 0
7
7 1osers
Nom

2C
oat
pass
pass
4
< J 9 8 7
7 5 4 3
+ J 5 4 3
1 0 losers
Wm
1 c
4<
Nonh-South bid according to their loser counts. South thought that seven losers
plus seven loser amounted to ten tricks. He checked his 'points' and counted
fou
neen opposite an opening bid. So he bid game and was disappointed when
West defeated the contract immediately by leading spades, giving East a ruf on
t
he founh round. There was still the ace of trumps to lose, so South made just
ei
ght tricks, two fewer than expected.
This horor stor illustrates what can happen when controls are lacking.
Te sides are BBJJ, usually a god sign for those who would bid agressively, but,
a
gainst the odds, the side suits are divided 4- 1 , not J-Z. Funhermore, the side
su
its contain the vast majority of HCP this too being unusual. Adeal like the
o
ne
shown is ver rare compared to the majority of deals in which most of the
hC|lie favorably in the long suits.
Cmpm I2 l H|dCarJFo|otsar.JAT|at!azz I 203 |
Expert players usc multiple hand evaluation methods, not j ust one exclusively.
They look at HCP and shape, consider loser count and the texture of the hand,
and upgrade and downgrade their holdings based on the auction and, above all,
on their own j udgment based on experience. Empirical methods exist
which
attempt to make parts of this process simpler for lesser players; these in
clud
e
the LTC and the Law of Total Tricks - of which we' ll see more in the
next
chapter.
| Z4 I ne,Pom|aMIojm aoo
CHAPTER13
PbbL bbLbN HcLA
Sc|cnccuau||tupojjau, maomcuau||tojstoncs ,
autanacumumt|onojjauuRmmcasc|mcctan
acapojstoncs|saomc.
Henri Poincaire | I BJ4- I 9I ZI
=
m
t

Te world divides itself into two main groups: those who judge according to what
should have happened, and those who judge according to results. Probability
exists in the cloudy realm of the idealist. It provides the blueprint of what should
|c but ofen isn't. Statistics provide the concrete foundations for the realists; it
represents the hard facts of what has happened and is likely to happen again.
Te main objective of data analysis is to derive prctical conclusions to guide
o
u
r f
uture actions.
Bridge scores are the rough stones of exprience, and if we are to make fll
05c
of them, they must form part of a coherent strcture. Loking at the results
from
a single session may not benlightening, as the overall patter is obscured

h
uman fallibility. Over the long rn, exprience is what gides us. What works
to
d
ay gets repeated tomorow and what dosn't work is discarded. Slowly our
methods evolve, in a random fashion, unless we seek guidance fom experienced
P
l
a
yer who can present a reasonable explanation that somehow makes sense of
o
u
r
obserations. It is the Darinians against the Intelligent Designer.
\the basis of experience over a few sessions, you may conclude that if you
4Ic
dealt a singleton, it will most likely b a club. Now, while this may b true
CmmIJ l From,SmasmsaMTmLw I 205 I
o|the Jata onwh|ch thc conc|us|on |sbascJ, |t |s a stat|st|ca| ||ukc

.
l 1
hunJreJJca|smaynotbcarth|sout. A|thoughoncmaynotc
thcc

0
--
,

as a cur|ous Iact, |t Jocs not pov|Jc a bas|s Ior act|on |n tbc

|uturc.
L

|
ackwooJuscJstat|st|ca|tcstsonvar|ousprcj uJ|ccsconccm|ng
han
d-:
h
uftl .

Jca|s,||kctbcsupcrst|t|ontbat tbc4K |s morc ||kc|ytobcas|ng|etoo th
;
h
|
otbcrk|ngs. Hckncwbcttcr,buttbcIacttbatbcIc|ttbcnccJ
toJ|sr

|I \'
asadrc0cct|onontbcp|aycrsoIb|st|mc.
|t|swortbwb||ctocxam|nctbcprocssoIstat|st|ca|ana|ys|s,bc
c
a
0
,,.

.
today |n morc cn||gbtcncd t|mcs tbcrc |s a proIounJ m|sundcrstanJ|o
c

procss, cspcc|a||y w|tb rcgard to tbc Law oITota| Tr|cks, tbc subc

.
o

| l
cbaptcr. Lct'shrst|okattbcs|mp|cqucst|onoIwbatconvcnt|onsooc
pp
(
,
j

t o|ncorporatc |ntoonc'sb|dd|ngsystcm. Surc|yastat|st|ca|survcy
c
an
,

dcc|d|ng wb|cb oncs arc wortbwb||c, | Ion|y onc cou|d |ntcrprct thc Sl AI | | |
propcr|y.
Lct'ssupposconcw|sbcs toaddrcsstbcqucst|onoIwbctbcrornot
y
a
,l ,
tbcI|anncnZ0opcn|ng,wb|cbwasd|scusscd|ntbcprcv|ouscbap
tcr. An
a
t u r
hrststcpwou|dbct ocxtracthomastorcbouscoIpasttoumamcntsthose
,
-
tbatwcrc opcncd w|tbtbcI|anncn Z0and comparc tbc scorcsobt
a
ined
(
\ I I
tbosc obta|ncd on tbc samc bards by p|aycrs wbo d|dn't usc thc coov
,
u
Sorc|ytbatwoo|dbcaprcrcqu|s|tcIortbcadopt|on. Supposcthatthc| ann.I
uscrsoutscorcd tbchc|dontboscbands. Tbat|stobccxpcctcdbccausc.
,
|
|svcn|nIormat|vc,bottbat|n| tsc|Iwou|dnottc||ustbattbc||anncrv| \| \'
a wortbwb||c add|t|on to a b|dd|ng systcm, bccausc |t comcs up |n|rcqUL l 1 '
To comp|ctctbcana|ys|s,oncbasto|okattbc mucbgrcatcrnumber
c
|
,
'
wbcrc tbc I|anncn pa|n coo|dn't opcn Z0 to sbow somctb|ng c|sc. |i .| | |
supposcd|y god rcso|ts hom I|anncn gct swampcd by bad rcsu|ts when
bc|ng ab|ctoopcnZ0otbcm|sc'
Amnbcrd|mco|ty|stbattbcp|aycnwbouscdI|anncn maybcaJi fti r. ,
c|ass oI p|aycr hom tbosc wbo d|dn't. Tbcrc may bc a gcncrat|oo '| ' '
cxamp|c. Sotbcva||d|tyoIanyconc|us|ondrawnhomstat|st|ca|ana|v-|
- HU
bc cons|dcrcd |n tcrms oItbc on|Iom|ty oItbc databasc. Thus, thc
ql|v| l
bccomcsvcncomp|cxandnotcas||yrcso|vcdbyas|mp|ctcsto|rcsu|t-.
Stat|st|ca| ana|ys|s |s bst d|rcctcd towards |ok|ng Ior answ
crs
It V \
spcc|hcqucst|ons. Iorcxamp|c,oncm|gbtaskwbctbcrtbcrcwasJcPra
dat
i
1 `
tbcrcsu|tswbcnI|anncnwasoscdw|tb|argcHCIdcpartorcshomexpcc
t
;
t
t
"
aswcsorm|scd |ntbc prcv|ouscbaptcr. Tbcrc | sa rcason t obc||eve
th!
t
i |
m|gbtbctbccasc,tbcrcasonbc|ngtbattbc|nIormat|oncontcnt|nth
|ssi t u.
t
t , .

bccomcsdcgradcdastbconccna|nty|s|ncrcascd. IItb|sbyotbcs|s|stetL|\'
data, attcnt|on |sIooscd so|c|yon tbc groupoIp|aycrs wbo cm
p|o
\ '`
'
'
sotbc rcsu|ts sbou|d bc mcan|ngm|. Tbc stody m|gbt sbow tbat ||ao
o
-
'

cqua||ycdcct|vcdcsp|tctbc|ossoI|nIormat|on, tbospott|ngon
ctb
co
'
|

wb||csuggcst|ngotbcrs.
| Z0 | me, Fmm|||aMIojmoo
stati s
tics and the LAW
Stat|st|csatc||kcmmpposts t|cyarcgccdto|canon,
hatdon'(s|cdmac|||g|t
-KobcrtStorm-|ctcrscn| I BBZ- I 94I
Th
el1
ries ar|sc asa mcans toarrangc Iacts |ntoa stroctorc. Tbc Law oITota|
T
n
cks says tbctota|nombcroItr|ckstakcnbybotbs|dcs,cacbp|ay|ng |ntbc|r
1 ,
,
11
g
e
s
t tr
ump ht,cqoa|stbctota| nombcroItmmps |ntbctwoso|tsdcc|arcd.
1|C
OUDC, tb|s|sa m|s-statcmcntoItbcrcso|tsobta|ncdby]o|csKcnVcmcs,
| hc
Fre
nchman wbo hrst obscncd |n a stat|st|ca| soncy oIdca|s hom wor|d
;h
:1mpiLn
sb|pp|aytbattbcconc|at|onbcmccntbcnombcroItr|ckstakcnand
| hc
nURbcroItrompsbc|dwasmocbgrcatcrtbantbatbctwccntbcnombcroI
r n
cks a
nd tbcd|v|s|onoIHCP
Vemes' obscnat|onwasbascdonvcnIcwdca|s. W|tbcompotcrs|mo|at|ons,
|hc
databa
se can bcgrcat|ycxpandcd- a|bc|tw|tb|n tbc rcstr|ct|on tbat tbc
r. ,ult
s
are dcpcndcntontbcdcgrcctowb|cbcompotcrscanrcprodocc'rca||st|c'
- nu
a
tions. ncsocbstat|st|ca|stody, |nvo|v|ngovcr40,0s|mo|at|ons,was
rrnrted by MattG|nsbcrg|ntbcNovcmbcr I 99|ssocoITmtUgcwmU. Hc
c: dC|U
d
Cd tbat 'prov|dcd tbat tbc tromp |cngtbs comb|nc to twcnty cards or
kwcr, the LawoITota|Tr|cks w||| |cad yoo toconcctdcc|s|ons approx|matc|y
.J"oIthe t|mc.' Wbattbccbaractcr|st|cswcrcoItbcJ0%oItbcdca|sIorwb|cb
|hc LAW d|dnotprov|dctbcconcctdcc|s|onwas|choncxp|orcd. |crbapstbc
t . nl ures wcrcrandomand onprcd|ctab|c, bot onc woo|d bc rc|octant to makc
-uch a conc|os|on,ratbcrbop|ngtbatmorcd|rcctcdstat|st|ca|stod|csm|gbt|cad
| |un her cn||gbtcnmcnt.
1c rcso|tsoIa stat|st|ca| stodydo not prodocc |aws, tbcy pmdocc trcnds
' l lhin
||m|tsoIonccna|nty. Attack|ngtbcLAWasbc|ngsobjccttovar|at|on|s
| | |van
d addrcsscsso|c|ytbcgo|||b|cIcwwbobc||cvc|n|tabso|otc|y. Stat|st|cs
lL
a comp||at|on oIdata sob]cct to var|at|on doc to b|ddcn Iactors socb as
| h

sk||| |cvc| oItbc p|aycn |or compotcr programsl |nvo|vcd. Tbc tr|ck Ior
'
h
t
ain
i
ng |ns|gbtsoIgcncm|va||d|ty ||cs |n tbcco||cct|onprocssandbowtbc
ec
r|csarcdchncd.
No
mattcrtbattbcLAW|snot||aton|c|n|tspcncct|on,tbcconscqocnccs
`'
V
e
mes' rcvc|at|on |and LmCbcn'sbr||||antcxpos|t|onoI|t|nTo |dL
`''
!
o
UI|stbat manybavc takcn |ttobcan and |nvcntcdb|dd|ngscbcmcs
1
'
as
e
d
on
|ts rc|cvancc to compct|t|vc act|on. Tbcrc |s no doobt tbat tbc
m
e
rge
nce oIv|gorooscompct|t|vcb|dd|ng|samajorcbangctodop||catcbr|dgc

!
|| |
cv
c|stbatbas bccn |n0ocnccdby tbc LAW and |sst|||dcvc|op|ng, w|tb
"
waytogo. It'swbattbcybc||cvcratbcrtbanwbat |stmc tbat movcstbc
"
+s
s.
Tbc rca|qocst|on |s tb|s. know|ng tbat tbcrc |sa corrc|at|on bctwccn
'
t
9
ta|nombcroItr|cksand tbctota|nombcroItromps,bowdocsoncapp|y
Cmm IJ l From|||, SmasmsTmLw I Z07 I
that knowledge in a competitive auction! Specifcal ly, when Jo the oJJs |
a
,
,
,
hiJJing on anJ when not !
This is where hypothesis testing comes to the fore. Good players know o[
a
t
factors favor bidding on, so it is a matter of testing hypotheses under the v,,
favorab|e conJ|t|onstosccwb|cbarc most |n||ucnt|a|w|tbregard to the
[An
The Classifcation of Results
Smr|sr|csatcapotcnt|aydngctoud|st|mt|onojtcsa|ts . The
comt|tacntsmastacc|cat|ymac|cd.
Wbcndraw|ngconc|os|onshomrcso|ts,yoobavc tomakcc|carwbatprocess | -
oscdtojodgca rcso|t. Itcnanana|yst |ok|ngata||Iourbandscan see w
[
at
|stbc |dca| rcso|t,bot |stb|sa Ia|rasscssmcnt ' Tbc rcsu|tsmaynot |caJto a
conc|os|onoIwbat |s r|gbt orwrong cvcn wbcrccxpcrtsarc |nvo|vcd. Here
ancxamp|chomrca|||Ic,bard I 7 oItbcZ07Sp|ngo|dScm|hna|s,where thcrc
arc twcnty tota| tromps,doob|chts. Attbc rwo tab|cs, botb s|dcsgot into thc
b|dd|ngandbadtojodgcatab|gb |cvc|. Astbcrcwcrc tcntr|ckstbcorct|cl|v
ava||ab|c to bast-Wcst |n, tbcNortb-Soutbpa|rssboo|ddowc||tosacr|h cc
|n .
Dealer: North
Neither Vul nerable
Weat
8 7 2
c 2
K 1 0 9 4
Q 1 0 8 6 2
Nom
K Q 1 0 4
c 8 7 6 5 4 3
Q
5 4
D
Su
6
C K QJ 9
AJ 7 6 5 3 2
+ K
oat
AJ 9 5 3
C A 1 0
8
+ AJ 9 7 3
In tbc hrst matcb, Nortb-Soutb tok n|nc tr|cks |na contract oIJ, wb||c
a
t
tbc otbcr tab|c bast-Wcst took n|nc tr|cks |n , so tbc Tota| Tr|cks camc t
o
c|gbtccn, two Icwcr tban prcd|ctcd. In tbc otbcr scm|hna| matcb, btb East
I Z0b I ne, Fmm|aMIojmaoo
\Ycst pai rs pl ayed in
* and
one decl
a
rer guessed the c l
uh posi ti on to hring home
i -contract. Can al l this he cl
assi
f
ed
as evidence of a fai l ure of the LAW?
The point to he
made with regard to this d
eal i s that there i s no clear right t
u
rODP w|tbregard to the Norr
h-South decision at the tahle to defend or sacr|hcc.
j, South's point of v|cw, the heart lead looks solid, and thcrc arcccrta|n|y
u

y
- Ior
Easttogowong. Tbc+K mayprov|Jcatr|ckIortbcJcIcnsc,anJJ|J
-|)On twooutoItbrccoccas|ons. Sow|tb|ntbcbounJsoIunccrta|nty,aJcc|s|on

|
) JcIcn
J appcarcJ corrcct to tbrcc scm|hna| |sts. W|tb rcgarJ to a stat|st|ca|

a
ss|hcat|on,canoncsayTbcLAWwasupbc|J,ornot ' Tbrccrcsu|tspo|ntto
ro
tal oIc|gbtccn tr|cks, twoIcwcr tbanprcd|ctcd by tbc LAW, bowcvcr, tbc
tiJUrth
p|cccoIcv|Jcncc |stbattcntr|ckscanbcmaJc|nspaJcsonastutcp|ay.
|t
sbou|J bc notcd tbat |n To UL Not U, Lam Cobcn advocatcs
b|JJ|ngoncmorctbantbcLAWsuggcstson'Ircak'banJsw|tbdoub|c hts. Tbc
L
A
W Jocs not ht wc|| w|tb tbc rcsu|ts obta|ncJ hom cxtrcmc|yJ|str|but|ona|
haoJs. barJ I 7 m|gbt bcso dcscr|bcd. |t |s saIcr IorSoutb to b|Jon w|tba
Jocb|c ht tban to rc|y on Tbc LAW, wb|cb app||cs morc bapp||y to tbc morc
|rcqucntNat banJs.
|rcsumab|yontbccv|JcnccoIp|aycdbands,tbcrcw|||bcsomcJoubtasto
uhetbcrtbcJca|wasp|aycJ tom||advantagcbydcIcnJcrsand/ordcc|arcrs. |I
cxpertscanmakcm|stakcs,bowabouttbcrcsu|tsw|tbavcragcp|aycrs ' Kca||ty
i s cssy. n tbcotbcrband, |Icomputcrs b|dandp|aytbcbanJs, tbcrcsu|ts
wi l l rc||ccttbc mctboJscmp|oycd |ntbcsoItwarc. Tbcsc canbccontro||cJso
that cacbJca| |sp|aycd|naun|Iormmanncr.Tb|ss|tuat|on|scontro||ab|chom
t
he outs|Jc, so |s prcIcrab|c Ior tcst|ng bypotbcscs. TrcnJs can bc morc cas||y
|Jeot|hcJ, mctboJsmorccas||ytcstcJ. |nrcpon|ngtcstrcsu|ts, tbc rcscarcbcr
mcst statc Iu||y tbc mctbods cmp|oycd. ncc mctboJs arc rchncJ, tbc rca|
test |s toapp|y tbcm torca|Jata |ngrcatquant|tyso as togaugc tbcJcgrcc oI
coccrta|nty.
Rehn| nthe LAW
In tbc|rbookIFoag|tT|cLuojTomTnck,M|kcLawrcnccanJAnJcrsW|rgrcn
J|scuss ways to |mprovc tbc prcJ|ct|on oItbc numbcr oI tr|cks ava| |ab|c |n a
Jca|. Tbcynotctbat |t |snotsomucb tbcnumbcroItrumpsoncs|Jc bo|Jsbut
thcnumbcroItrumpstbatcanbcuscdsucccssm||yIorrumngtbat|s|mponant.
Tbc|rt|t|c|sm|s|caJ|ng,astbcydon'thgbttbcLAW somucbasattcmpttostay
ontbcr|gbts|JcoI|t. AndcrsW|rgrcnbasunJcnakcncxtcns|vcsurvcysus|ng
acomputcrprogramtoJotbcworkoIp|ay|ngouttbcbanJs|prcsumab|ywbcn
tbc numbcrs oI HC| wcrc approx|matc|y ba|anccJI. Tbc rcsu|ts conhrmcJ
thc rc|at|onoItr|cks totmmps |n tb|srcspcct.tbcmost||kc|ynumbcroItota|
CmpmJ I Prbilir, Sttistics an Th Lw | 209 I
tr|ckswasa|waysthc tota| numbcro|t rumps.Here are twoexamp|eso|how
[
c
stat|st|csp|ayout.
When the total trumps equal s 1 4
Total Tricks
l l g l .
Percentage (%) 5 56 34 4
When the total trumps equal s 1 6
Total Tricks
g l . l l
Percentage (%) 5 1 7 44 27 6
WbcntbcrcarcIoortccntota|tromps,tbcrc|son|yoncrc|cvantd|v|s|ono|s|
J
,
-
77,wb|chcompr|scsaboot I O%oIa||dca|s. Norma||ytbcscbandsshou|J

p|aycd |nnotrompcontracts,astbcrcarcIcw|Ianyrodsava||ab|c. LnJerthc

cond|t|ons oI tbc compotcr s|mo|at|on, tbc rangc oIvar|at|on |s not |arge, ht
tbc stat|st|cs stack op ondcr jost twocatcgor|cs. Wbcn tbcrc arc s|xteen tota|
tromps, var|ooscond|t|onsapp|yanda w|dcrrangcoIrcso|ts |sposs|b|c. |n thi s
s|toat|on, thc stat|st|ca| d|str|bot|on 0attcns wb||c ma|nta|n|ng a pcak |n th
,
m|dd|c. |t|ooks||kcanorma||Gaoss|anlsbapcw|tbamcd|anva|ocbctwceo
|
o
and I 7. Tb|sbasmorctodow|tbtbcstat|st|csoIranJomvar|ab|csandso-ca||J
'dcgrccsoIhccdom'tban|tdocsw|tbbr|dgc,psc.
|IW|rgrcn's compotcrrcso|tsarcacccptcd, tbcy c|car|y |nd|catc that thc
bcstcst|matcoItota| tr|cks |stbc nombcroItota|tromps. Tb|s rcprcsentsthc
'norma|'cond|t|onandtbcrcIorc yoosboo|d 'norma||y' acccpt tbcLAW. The
rcso|ts Ior s|xtccntota|tmmpssbow tbattbcrcarcas manyrcso|tsIor s|xtcco
tr|cksastbcrcarcIorhItccntr|cksandscvcntccntr|ckscomb|ncd,sowhywou
'
J
yoo cst|matc otbcm|sc' Howcvcr, |Iyoo do dcc|dc to dcv|atc, |t pays to |c
aggrcss|vc, scvcntccntr|cksarcba|Iaga|n morc||kc|ytbanhhccntr|cks.
Lct's|ookatbowtbccardswoo|dmost||kc|ybcd|v|dcdwbcn7---7. The
rc|at|vcnobcrsoIcomb|nat|onsIorcacbsct |sg|vcnbcncatbtbcd|str|but|oo
sbown.
ll lll lV V Vl
4 - 3 4 - 3 4 - 3 5 - 2 4 - 3 5 . 2
< 3 - 3 < 3 . 3 < 2 . 4 < 3 . 3 < 4 . 2 < 2 . 4
3 - 3 2 - 4 4 - 2 3 - 3 1 - 5 4 - 2
3 - 4 4 - 3 3 - 4 2 - 5 4 - 3 2 - 5
0. 75 0. 56 0. 36 0. 23
0. 20
Tbc vast major|ty oId|str|bot|ons coo|d bc dcscr|bcd as 'notromp' typ
es. T
he
proport|on tbat woo|d cnd op |n a so|t contract |s sma||, and dcpcn
Js
OD
t
he
b|dd|ngsystcmbc|ngoscd. So|Ioncwcrctodoacompotcrs|mo|at|on,th
e
'
!'
I Z l I ne, Pom|||Iojmaoo
0mtract should he determi ned by the result of an auction. If one includes some
hi
JJ
ing options, one obtains a diferent
picture of possible distributions. Which
Jistributions would
give rise to the sequence 1 0- 1 \; 1 if one were employing a
rw-carJ major system?
lll Vll Vlll
4 - 3 4 - 3 4 - 3
2 - 4 2 - 4 1 - 5
4 - 2 5 - 1 5 - 1
3 - 4 2 - 5 3 - 4
0. 75 0. 1 3 0.09
Shortagcsbccomcmorc rc|cvant,andsbonagcsarcwbatIavorp|ay|ng|naso|t
rather tban|nnotromp. Lct's|mag|nca7766 dca|wbcrcbotbs|dcsm|gbtdcc|arc
in the|rbcst scvcn-card ht, onc s|dc w|tb sbortagc and tbcotbcrs|dcw|tboot.
Which s|dcdoyootb|nkw|||takcmorctr|cks'
Nor
1 0 9 8
QJ 7
K J 8 6
QJ 7
Wes Eas
AJ 3 2
D
7 6 4
6 <: A 5 4 3 2
A 7 5 4 2 3
+ K 4 3 + A 8 6 5
Su
K Q 5
K 1 0 9 8
Q 1 0 9
1 0 9 2
If
East-Wcstgct top|ay |ntbc|r4-Jspadcht, tbc rcso|t w|||b bcyond norma|
cxp
cctat|ons, as Wcst can takc tcn tr|cks on any |cad. Ior Nortb-Sootb, s|x
tri
cks |stbc||m|t|nd|amonds.
TcLAW|sootbyZ,s|ncctbctota|tmmpsarcIoortccnandtbctota|tr|cks

|
xt
ccn. Tbc bast-Wcst bands p|ay cxtrcmc|y wc||, onc major advantagc to
Je
c|arcrbc|ngtbcposscss|onoIa||Iooraccs.
A|tboogb botb s|dcsbc|d Z0 HCP Nortb-Sootb |ackcd tbc norma| qoota
contro|s, on|y tbrcc vcrsos bast- Wcst's n|nc. Nom-Sootb posscsscd no

h
ortagcs,wbcrcasbast-Wcstbadcomp|cmcntans|ng|ctons. Nortb-Sootbbc|d
CmpmI J l Fmm|||, SmstasaMTmLw | Z l l I
tbcmost|||c|yJ|str|bot|onoIs|Jcs,4JJJoppos|tc4JJJ, wbcrcasbast-Wcsts.

aJ|str|bot|onw|tbIcwcrtbanonc-tcntbtbcnombcroIcomb|nat|ons. T|s
Je
a
|
|||ostratcsspcc|hca||ytbcschvcpo|ntsw|tb rcgarJtotr|c|-tak|ngpotcnt|a|.
l ) MostbanJsarc0at|na77s|dc,
2) Shortages are important, 3 tbcya||owIorrufs;
JI Oe side having shortage doesn't promote shortage in tbc otbcr
side;
4) Controls are important 3 they enable rfs;
5) Honor i n the trump suit are important, 3 they reduce tbc
efectiveness of the opponents' trmp leads.
The Losi ng Tri ck Count and Total Tri cks
Mn,|jdnucmmps ,umtmmyouuouUhl.
Charles Lamb ( 1 775- 1 824)
The previous deal can also b used to illustrte evaluation according to the |os|oc
trick count, details of which are given in TmMoLs|ngTmkCountbyoo
Klinger. An important feature of the method is the emphasis placed on sbape
and controls: two sides with 20 HCP and 7766 distribution may have grcat|v
diferent potential depending on the shapes of the individual hands.
Nor Wm Wes Eas
1 0 9 8 K Q 5 AJ 3 2 7 6 4
V QJ 7 < K 1 0 9 8 < 6 < A 5 4 3 2
0 K J 8 6 0 Q 1 0 9 0 A 7 5 4 2 0 3
QJ 7 1 0 9 2 + K 4 3 + A 8 6 5
9 1osers 9 1osers 7 1osers 8 losers
Bcause of their fat shapes, North-South have a total of eighteen losers, wb|ch
indicates they can take six tricks, in exact agreement with the actual total. bast
West have a total of ffeen loser, which indicates they can take nine
tricks.
However, one loser can be deducted bcause Est-West hold nine controls, ao
exceptionally high total, so one arives at a total of ten tricks expected to
bc
taken. This, to, is in exact agreement with the actual total. Therefo
re, th
e
numbr of total tricks agrees with the totals predicted by the respective losing
trick counts 3 describd by Klinger. The simple conclusion is that bidding
systems can j ustifably be based on 0p probabilities and the LAW 3a gcncra|
guideline, but in prctice player should evaluate their hands according to
thc|r
l Zl Z) me, PomInjm
c
oncnt |os|ng tr|ck coont, tbat bc|ng
bcttcr cst|matcoItbc potcnt|a|oItbc
b
andbcIorctbcm.
A
n
Appropri ate Statistical Approach
Nothng ubautf fo eve pint of mu.
- Horacc(65-8 B)
T
c
LAW |snotpncct|on. It |s an obscnat|on bascd on a stat|st|ca| stody
of sc|cctcd dca|s, so thc va||d|ty oIthc rcso|t on any part|co|ar dca| shoo|d b
v|cwcd |n thc contcxt oIvar|ab|||ty w|th|n thc bonds oI onccrta|nty. 5och
boonds dcpcnd on thc mctho oIc|a|hcat|on. thc nanowcr thc constra|nts
p|accd on thc c||hcat|on, thc morc accomtc w||| b thc prcd|ct|ons. In
p
ract|cc,oncmayapp|yconstm|ntsonthcnombroIHCIhc|d,botHCIa|onc
maynotbthcmostsu|tab|c mcasorctoosc. Ls|ngon|yHCIc|ass|hcat|ons |s
|nbcrcnt|yunmond,mvar|ab|||tymostbcxpctcd|nthcrcso|t|ngprcd|ct|ons.
Tbccmc|cncyoIonc'smcthosoIhandcva|oat|onw|||bcparamoont,andmany
cxpcrtshavcmoghtto|mprovcthataspctw|thspc|hcm|cs|nc|od|ngcontro|s
andd|str|bot|ona|Icatorcs. ThcLs|ngTr|ckCont|soncsochmcthod.
M|kc Lwrcncc and AndcnW|rgrcnprcscntcd hvc hands that |||ostmtcd
tbat thc numbr oI tota| tr|cks |n a dca| may van grcat|y dcpnd|ng on thc
d|str|bot|on oIa s|dc. Tc Nonh-Soth hands wcrc hxcd and thc Lst-Wcst
d|str|but|onwasa||owcdtovan w|th|nthcconstm|ntsoIthc hxcd d|str|bot|on
oIs|dcs. HcrcarcthcNonh-Sothhands.
Nor
K 7 6
V A K 7 3
7 4 2
+ A 8 4
D
W
A QJ 1 0 9 3
V 8 2
9
+ K Q 6
CmmI J l P,Swsmsan Th LW [ 21 3 ]
Tbc s|Jc |s 9-7-4- w|tb Z HC| Tbc Los|ng Tr|ck Coont |s ZO. Tbcrc
arc
c|cvcncasytr|cks|nacontractoI, bot wcarc to|J tbat tbcopponcnts
b
a
,,
compctcd to tbchvc-|cvc| |nJ|amonJs. Tbc qocst|on poscJ by tbc aothors
|s
tb|s. sboo|JSootbdoob|cortakctbcposb|Ivo|ncrab|caga|nstnot ' |sth
cLaw
oITota|Tr|cksarcasonab|cgo|JcIortbcschvcdca|s'
HcrcarctbchvcLt-WcstbanJstbcyprov|dcIorcompar|son. Wc
Dm
v|
Jc
tbcLs|ngTr|ckContattbcbottomoIcacbdca|.
Dl Dl ll
4 2 8 5 4 2 8 5
c QJ 1 0 9 c 6 4 c QJ 1 0 9 c 6 4
A Q 8 6 K J 1 0 5 3 A Q 8 6 5 K J 1 0 3
5 3 2 J 1 0 9 7 3 2 J 1 0 9 7 5
8 1osers 8 1osers 7 1osers 8 1osers
Dl lll Dl N
4 2 8 5 4 2 8 5
c QJ 1 0 9 c 6 4 c QJ 1 0 9 4 c 6
A Q 8 6 5 3 K J 1 0 A Q 8 6 5 K J 1 0 3
2 J 1 0 9 7 5 3 + 2 J 1 0 9 7 5 2
6 losers 8 1osers 6 1osers 7 1osers
Dl Y
4 8 5 2
c QJ 1 0 9 4 c 6
A Q 8 6 5 3 K J 1 0
2 + J 1 0 9 7 5 3
5 losers 8 1osers
Tc p|ayab|||ty oItbc contract |nd|amonds dcpcnds |amc|y on tbc qoa||ty oI
tbcWcstband. Tbcraw |oscrcoonth bccn|owcrcdbcaoscoItbcpr|mcft
|ntmmps. TcnombcroI|oscn|ntbcLt-Wcstbandsvar|cshoms|xtccnto
tb|nccn, so onc cxpccu a w|dcrangc |n tbc rcso|ts oItbc p|ay. Tbc rc|at|vc
probab|||tyoIoconcnccdcpcndsontbcsbapcs.
I ll lll N V
2 - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 1 - 3
c 4 - 2 c 4 - 2 c 4 - 2 c 5 - 1 c 5 - 1
4 - 5 5 - 4 6 - 3 5 - 4 6 - 3
3 - 4 2 - 5 + 1 - 6 1 - 6 1 - 6
Frequency 54% 33% 7% 4% 2%
Totl Tricks 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 22
[ Z l4 | mc, Fom|aMIojmmo
[
t
om the rc|at|ve |requcncyo|thesc
var|ousshapcs, |t can be scen that Dca|s
1 ao
J | | const|tutc
a |rcqucncy o|occurrencc o|d

"i

|orthcgreat major|ty
.:|
cases w|th thcsc hvc conhgurat|ons, thc Law o|Tota| Tr|cks odcrs a gooJ
cst|matc, anJSouthshou|JJoub|e|orpcna|ty. Th|s corrcsponJstothcaJv|cc
o|teng|vcn,that'thchvc|evc|bc|ongstotbcopponcnts. ' Dca|| | | |sborJcr||nc,
aoJSoutbshoo|db|donto|Ivo|ncrab|caga|nstnot. Dca|s|VanJVarctbc
cxccpt|onstotbcgcncra|ro|candSootbsboo|db|dons|ncctbcpcna|tyw|||not
|
caJcquatctocompcnsatcIortbc|ostgamcbonos.
|non|ya sma|| m|nor|tyoItbcbands| I |n I l w|||TbcLAWprov|dcbad
aJv|cc.
Tcavcragc nombcroItota|tr|cksIor tb|ssct|s I 7. 7, soonavcragctbc
L
AW
|scorrccttoprcd|ctc|gbtccntota|tr|cks. Somct|mcs,notoItcn,ad|sastcr
occurs. Tb|nk oI|t tb|s way. |Ia ||nc oIp|ay can prov|dc a I J/I cbancc oI
suc
ccss, yoo woo|d bc wrongnot to takc |ton tbc argomcnt tbatsomct|mcs |t
w||||a||. No mattcrbowrchncdonc'sgocss, tbcrcw|||a|waysbcsomcdcgrccoI
Jangcrdoc totbc |nbcrcntonccrta|nty.
Beware of Quacks
|t wou|d bc oscm| |Ionc coo|d j odgc cons|stcnt|y wbcn to takc a pcss|m|st|c
v|cwandb|dcaot|oos|yw|tb|ntbcgo|dc||ncsoItbc LAW Dcta||cdstat|st|ca|
ana|ys|swoo|dbcagrcatbc|p|noncovcr|ngtbcma|n|nd|cators. bxpcrtsbavc
g|vcnossomcadv|cc,tbcc|csttoIo||owb|ng,'bwarcoIqoacks|ntbcsbort
su|ts.' Vcmcsobscncdtbattbcrcwcrcmorc tr|ckstobccxpcctcd|Ibotbtromp
su|tsconta|ncd tbc topIoorbonon. WbatoInoma| tromp so|ts tbatconta|n
thcmajor|tyoIHCP|ntbcso|t ' Aswcbavcsccnprcv|oos|y,tb|s|stbcnorma|
conJ|t|on,sooncwoo|dcxpcctanorma|rcso|t,tbat|s,tbcLAWbo|ds. ascdon
th|srcason|ng,oncwoo|dcxpcctIcwcrtr|ckswbcntbctrompso|tsarcdchc|cnt
|nHCP |s|tso' Stat|st|cswoo|dgo|dcosmrtbcr.
Gorcn's go|dc||ncs Ior band cva|oat|on bascd on HCP don't d|st|ngo|sb
whcrctbc HCP ||c. Tbcadv|cc |stb|s. coont tbc HCI tbcn addd|str|bot|on
po|ntsasIo||ows. I Ioradoob|ctonandZIoras|ng|cton. Tbos,IorGorcn,botb
thcscbandsbavc I4po|nts.
Hand I HCP Deeartres Hand I I HCP Deeartres
A x x x x 4 . 1 A K x x x 7 +2
< QJ 3 + 1 < x x 0 - 2
< K x x x 3 . 1 < K Q x x 5 + 1
Q x 2 0 x x 0 -2
8 1osers 6 1osers
CmpmJ I From, SmasmsaMTmLw I Zl 5 |
TbcJcpan

rcs|romnorma|cxpcctat|onsarcmoJcstatbcst. bv|ous|y|romth
e
|os|ngtr|ckcount,tbcbanJontbc|c|t,wbcrctbcJcpanorcs|ntbc|ongso|tsL
ncgat|vc,|mocb |csspowcm|tban tbcbanJontbcr|gbt,wbcrctbcdcparture
s
|n tbc |oo

erso|ts arc pos|t|vc. W|tb rcgarJ to tbc LAW, tbc prcscncc o|th
e
anJ the 4Q |n Hand | prcc|oJc tbc oppos|t|on acb|cv|ng por|ty
|n th
e|r
prcsomcJ|ongso|ts. Tb|s|sabandIorapp|y|ngtbcLAWconscrvat|vc|y.
HanJ | bas c|osc to a norma| corrc|at|on bctwccn HCP and so|t |cngth
,
wbcrcasHand || |sovcr|oadcd|nIavoroItbc |ongcrso|ts, I Z HCPtononc. |
o
add|t|on,|trcta|nstbcposs|b|||tyoItromppor|tyIorbotbs|dcs. Tb|s |sah
aoJ
tob|dstrong|y|ncxpcctat|onoIagrcatcrnombcroItr|ckstban|nd|catcJbyth
e
LAW.
Tbcsac |og|c app| |cswbcnb|dd|nga wcak band |ncompct|t|on.
Ka|ses
tbatarcbcdonanorma|bo|d|ng|ntbctrompso|tcanbcmadcw|tbtbcLAW
as a bas|s|or rcasonab|c cxpcctat|on, bot ra|scs on bands tbat arc wcak |n the
trompsu|tarcdangcroos, as tbc tota| nombcroItr|cks ava||ab|c may bc |cwer
tbancxpcctcdnorma||y. Tbcrc|sadoob|c wbammycdcct. WbatcvcrHC|are
bc|d |nthcsbonso|tsarcdcIcns|vc |nnatorcandtcnd torcdocc tbc nombcro|
tr|cksava||ab|ctotbcopponcntsp|ay|ng|ntbc|rbcstht.
A hncJ|scoss|onoIVcmcs'rcso|tsandtbcrc|at|onsb|pbctwccntbcLAW
andtbcLs|ngTr|ckCont|sprcscntcd|nmc TNTamCompct|t|vcBiding
| I 9BI I by D|ck Iaync and jo Amsbon, an car|y d|scoss|on tbat bas bceo
ncg|cctcJ by ana|ysts. Tbcrc |s nccdIormocb morc nomcr|ca|cv|dcncc tobe
addcd toth|stop|c.
Probabi lity in Competition
Tcnoa|cstamuuntosuc,
Isk|nd|ys|knccumt au|
|nAjtctToudtbyA|hcd,LordTcnnyson( I B09 I B9ZI
As w|tb Jcc|arcr p|ay, onc sboo|d osc jayncs' Ir|nc|p|c as a go|dc dor|oc
compct|t|vcb|dd|ng. Tbctccbn|qoc |stoassomca roogbcst|matcoIbowthe
cards| |cbcdonwhat|smost||kc|yg|vcntbcpan|a|know|cdgcava||ab
|c.
A
tbcb|dd|ngproccds,oncadjostsaccord|ngtowbatbasbccnd|sc|oscd. bst|m
ate
arc cxpcctcJ to cbangc, somct|mcs rad|ca||y, bot |t |s cas|cr to adjost ho
m J
ccntra|ps|t|onwbcrcncccssaryratbcrtbanstanw|thootassompt|onsand
ma
k
e
ab||ndgucssattbccnd. Ionbcrmorc,apanncnb|phasanondcrstand|ngasto
wbatcach panncr cxpcctsandsocan adjost dor|ngtbcaoct|on |naccordance
w|tbtbatundcrstand|ng.
| Zl | 8Me,PomaMIojm
Wcbcg|n anaoct|onw|tbtbcassompt|ontbat wcbavcanc|gbt-carJ htor
be
ttcr,anBJ%cbanccbcIorcanyonc|oksattbccarJs. TbcLaw oITota|Tr|cks
|
nd|catcstbat
|Ibotbs|Jcsbavcanc|gbt-cardht,tbcyshould bcprepared tob|d
t
otbctwo-|cvc|wbcntbcHCIarcmore or less evenly divided. If the opponents
b
avcanB-carJ ht, tbcodds are 8: 1 that your side also has an eight-card ft. If
tbcopponcntsdeny an eight-card ft during the auction, then the odds are 2: 1
tbat your side has at best a seven-card ft, so balancing against a 1 NT bid in
com
petition is somewhat dangerous.
The most common division of sides is 8765, ocuring on 23. 5% of the
dea|s. bacbside has this patter, s no advantage can be assumed in that regard;
b
owcvcr,the distributions of the sides can b diferent, with the advantage going
tothe side that has more rfng power. This trnslates into the number of cards
held in the short suits, an obseration developed flly by Lwrence and Wirren
|nIFoudtTmLuojTowTmk.
To estimate one's chances at the bginning, one may place partner with
tbcmost likely shap, 432, and place his cards so that the side is 8765. No
goarantccs,of coure, but it is a snsible start basd on a likely ocurnce. Here
arcthree examples for which the opening bid is 1.
l Il Ill
5 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2
C l - 4 C 4 - 4 C 4 - 4
0 3 - 2 0 2 - 4 0 3 - 3
2 - 4 2 - 3 1 - 4
Combi nations L L (2/3JC
|orCase I, there are no fear of missing an eight -card ft in spades, s let's consider
Cases II and IIIwhere the eight-card ft ocur in a second suit.
Nom
2+
oat
db |
Wm
3+
Te double relates to holding four hears, s in Cases IIand III, the opening
bidder is assurd of an eight-card ft in hears, the only question bing whether to
takcthe push to the three-level. The Lw of Total Tricks taken by itself suggests
n
ot competing to the three-level when the Total Trmps equal 16. This is the
t
ye of decision that is treated in detail by Lwrnce and Wirren. Their advice
|s
to lok at the number of cards in each partner's shorest suits bfore deciding.
In L III, opener expcts a total of three cards in the two shortest suits, so it
|s
worthwhile considering a bid of 3<. InCase II, there are to many loser to
contemplate bidding on, so a pass is appropriate.
Cmm IJ l Pom,SwsmsTmLW l 21 7 |
| n0ehan
t
e of TheLAW!
Mts . ctttam Tmtsoand||knonscnsc,mydat.
Mt.mamMayacso,mydat,mt|tmymtwgomujmdtmt.
- fom GayMannct|ngby Sir Walter Scott | I 77 I - I BJZI
A present difculty i n competitive auctions i s that there seems to be no way to
punish transgressors who overbid in the hope that both sides can take eno
ugh
tricks that overbidding becomes wonhwhile. One bridge writer has rece
ntly
suggested playing more fequently for penalties by having responder pass at the
two-level with hands that contain invitational values even when holding three
card suppon for panner's fve-card major suit. This is contrar to the LAW, which
suggests that a side should compete to the level that represents the number of
trmps held; where eight trmps ar assured, one is advised to bid at the two
level. In his anicle 'The Coperative Pass', appearing in TmtUcwmU (Se
p
t
Z007I , Philip Manin sugests otherise. Afer
Weat
1
He suggests a pass with
Nom
2<
oat

$m
A 3 J 8 7 < K J 1 0 3 + K 9 7 5
The idea is that the opning bidder will not balance if he holds at least
doubleton in diamonds. The oppnents may not have found their best ft, in
spades. If the opener dosn't balance, the deal may b played in 20, in which
case the defending side has a btter chance of scoring well, as 20 is surely going
down. It is unLAWfl to balance with a double with length in diamonds, as the
opponents are likely to be able to escape to an eight-card ft in spades.
To compete fnher on moerte trmps risks a minus score, says Manin,
in agreement with our previous obseration that adequate suppon for hea
rts
is Q-x-x. Is this a sign that the pendulum has begun to swing back towards
trpping, seeking to take advantage of an advere lie of the trmp suit, or is
merely a sign of fustrtion at being outbid by aggressive oppnents with the
LAW bhind them?
This sugestion can be tested using computer simulations with ral deals.
For all sequences that begin 3 suggested abve, one may require responder to
pass with a por three-card raise and four cards to two honor in the overaller's
suit. Then one can trck what happens subsequently. The data would, of course,
b fawed insofar as the computer's actions do not match human reactions in
l Zl b) mc,PommaMIojm
the same situation. Although imperect, such a simulation could provide some
grounds for accepting Marin's sugestion, which is most suited to a system of
limited opening bids.
Finally, one notes that Martin is not in defance of the LAW, but is following
it when he cater for a situation where the overcaller's suit is not well supported
by his partner's hand. The opposition may have an eight-card ft, but not in
diamonds, so if lef alone, they are not going to play in their bst ft.
A Consultative Double
Progess mhave be rigt once, bt it h mK kg.
Ogden Nash ( 1 902- 1 97 1 )
Marhall Miles in his 1 992 bo k Stone Copttve Bidcomments that it pays
to assign meanings to doubles that ocur fequently rather than adopt bautf
dscptve N that seldom arise. There is a paradox in expecting partner to make
a god decision on the basis of a nebulous double when go decisions are based
on exact inforation. The 'do-something-sensible' double is a trp. However,
a consultative double is a sensible approach if parner ha clear-cut alterative
given the information available fom the action to that point. To b considered
'conultative', the primar attribute of the double must b that it prvides usefl
information. (The same is te of defensive signals. ) A partner cannot make a
sensible decision unless he hben given inforation on which to base it. The
conclusion is that the meaning of doubles, bing based on alteratives, will be
well defned, but that the defnition will var with the auction. The common
ground will b that of expectation based on prbability considertions.
The concept of doubling to provide one's partner with an alterative h
many applications, one of which came to light in the 'Marks and Comments'
featur conducted by Sally Brok in the August 207 issue of Bre Mavne.
Exper were asked to chose a call for the West hand given blow, North-South
vulnerble, IMPs soring:
K 1 0 3
C 7
< A 9 8 7 3
A 1 0 9 2
Wes
1 <
f
Nom
1 C
Expr' Advice: ptt( 1 4)
Su
4C
(5) dbl ( 1 )
CmmI J I Pom,SwsmsTLW | 219 |
n|y onc cxpcrt, ]obn Armstrong, votcd Ior Doob|c, tbc rcason bc|ng
th
at
bc |ncw tbc concct answcr Iromcxpcr|cncc. Hc and Grabam K|rby, p|ay|ng
|rcc|s|on,wcrcIorycarsastrongpartncrsb|ponr|t|sb|ntcmat|ona|tcams.
It
was K|rby wbo doob|cd on tb|s band many ycars ago, Armstrong was ab|c to
concctto,wb|cbmadcontb|s|ayoot.
Kmy Asmng ImIs
mtoI
K 1 0 3 A Q x x x 8 A x x x x
< 7 < 4 <
< A 9 8 7 3 < K x x 8 < K x
+ A 1 0 9 2 6 Q x x
Te meaning of the double was 'I want to bid +, but I am happy if you prcIcrto
defend.' As Sally Brok commented, this was a way to have yoorcake and cat
it, to.
Without such an agreement, many of those experts who passed held thc
view that they weren't strong enough to bid +on minimal values, but cxprcsscJ
the hope that their partner might take frther action with a double, |n wb|ch
case a bid of + would b j ustifed. Thus there was no way to take a vo|ncrab|c
penalty even if Est's double was penalty-oriented and showed defensive va|ocs
bhind the long suit. The hand on the far right is a pssible penalty double w|tb
8-4-7-7. There the penalty could b substantial, but there would b nowayto
achieve it. At any rte, East would have passed on the actual hand, and a gamc
would have ben missed at minimal cost to the preemptor.
The idea that one may pass a consultative double for penalty is aga|nsttbc
LAW when the oppnents have bid and raised a suit in a partscore situation.
Thus, the double will ofen b pulled unles the oppsition have made the gross
eror of blufng on ver little, certainly a pssibility. The defensive value oIsocb
doubles is that they suggest a penalty double on the next round if the opponcnts
mto steal the hand.
Ms. Lee Regrets . . .
AweU-aced mind ua tanul mind.
- Marcus Aurelius ( 1 2 1 - 1 80)
In her blog at W .bridgeblogging.com, Linda Lee wistflly voiced some regret
concering one of her decisions when Canada faced Gerany in the quarerfnals
of the 207 Venice Cup. How could she have guessed the winning action on
| ZZ0 I mc,PommIojm
b
ard Z aItcr b|gb|ycbar
g
eJcopct|t|on IrotbcIaoospa|roIAokcn and
vonAm|m' |n
Iact,on|yoncp|aycr|n
tbchc|d,|tsccms,Ioondtbcr|gbtanswcr,
so |t|swortbwb||cto |nvcst|gatc tb|s |ntcrcst|ngdca| IortbcrIrotbc po|nt oI
v|cwoIava||ab|c|nIorat|on.
Firt, bcrc|swbatbappcncdontbcsamcdca||ntbcbrmodabw|wbcnIta|y
fa
ccdSouth Afica. IIyoocxpcctcdhrcworks,yoowoo|dbavcbccnsomr|scd.
Dealer: East
Both Vulnerable
Holman
Fantni
Q 5
I A K Q 8 7 5 3
Q 8
+ A 7
+ K J 1 0 9 7 4 2
D
I 4 2
9
1 0 4 2
Nunes
+ A
I J 1 0
J 1 0 7 6 5
+ K J 9 6 5
West Nor East
Holman Fantni Cop
pass
pass 21 pss
pss 3+ pss
pss 4NT pass
pss 5NT pass
pss 71 al l pass
1 . 1 (1 3, unblanced, diamonds.
Cop
8 6 3
I 9 6
A K 4 3 2
Q 8 3
Su
Nunes
2'
3+
4+
5

South Afica was the surris team of the tourament, fequent employer of
semi-preemptive presure bidding, but here Holman went the other way with
a passive-aggressive pass over 20. It worked wonder, as the Italians propelled
themselves into a hopeless grand slam. Cpe was deceived into not doubling.
Te Venice Cup match of Great Britain verus China produced the highly
competitive auctions that one has come to expect when both sides hold long
major suits.
Cmm IJ l Pom,SmasmsaMTmLw I 221 I
West Norh East South
lio Dhondy Wong 5milh
pass pass
20* 3c 3. 4c
4. 5c al l pass
L|o bcgan w|tba Mo|t| Z0 | wcak two |na majorl, tbcngavcbcrsc|Ia ra|sc,

dangcroos pract|cc, bot Dbondy was not tobc dcn|cd bcr r|gbt todcc|arc the
band. Tbc rcso|t was a norma| J0. Apparcnt|y tbcrc was no way to sugg
est
tbc poss|b|||ty oI dcIcnd|ng , a rcasonab|c poss|b|||ty w|tb tbc two qucc
n-
doob|ctonsrcprcscnt|ngdcIcns|vcva|ocs|nsbonso|ts. Somcpanncrsb|ps
hav
c
aoscm|agrccmcnt|ntb|ss|toat|on.apassIorccsadoob|c,ahcrwb|cbNortbmay
po||toJtosbows|am|ntcrcst,wbcrcasad|rcctdoob|c|scoopcrat|vc.
Tbcw|nn|ngact|onwasIoondbytbcSootbp|aycrIorCb|naontbcIo||ow|nc
aoct|on.bcrpcna|tydoob|cp|ckcdopascorcoI I I 00.
Weat Nom
1shome Zhan
g
3. 4c
all pass
oat
Ja
gg
er
pass

$m
Gu
pass
dbl
Tbc dcIcnsc was r|d|co|oos|y casy. A, K, 4A, 4j, 4K and a Ioonb c|ubto
promotctbc|ntbcNonbband.
Sootb p|aycn |n a s|m||ar s|toat|on, ||kc L|nda Lcc, may |ok bac| anJ
wondcr|Itbcy,to, m|gbtbavcIoondtbat|ocmt|vcdoob|c. Tbcs|ng|ctonA|s
botbanohcns|vcanddcIcns|vcassct,bottbc]acksandtcnsarcporc|ydcIcns|vc
|nnatorc. Sorc|yw|||bcdcIcatcd,botw||| |tbcnoogb'
Tbcpmb|cm |stbattbcrc|s|nsomc|cnt|nIormat|onava||ab|ctobcccna|n,
bot cvcn at tb|s |atc stagc, tbcrc may b ways to cxcbangc |nIormat|on w|th
panncrandcomctoadcc|s|onbascdontbc]o|ntbo|d|ngs. bv|oos|y,adoub|c
cannot sbow a tmmp stack, bot |t can sbow a hand w|tb dcIcns|vc potcnt|a|,
|cav|ngab|doI4NTIortakcoot. TbcA|sabogcassctondcIcnsc,as|tcnab|es
onctoadjost tbcdcIcns|vcstratcgy |Itbcopcn|ng|cad|sad|sappo|ntmcnt.
IIadoob|c |n tb|spos|t|oncoo|d bcconstmcdascopcrat|vc,Nonb
w|th
twob|ackqoccns |ntbcsbonso|tsanda7ZZZsbapcwoo|dbcbappycnougbto
|cavc|t|n. IromNonb'spo|ntoIv|cw,tbc|snotcxpcctcdtotakcatr|ck,but
tbcrc|san|nd|cat|ontbat |tmaysopp|cmcntSootb'sbo|d|ng. Tcant|c|patcd
opcn|ngbcan|cadmaybo|dtbctr|ck,sotbcIo||ow-opcanbcadjostcdaccord|nc
towbat appcan |n tbc dommy. W|tb hvc |oscn, tbcband prctty wc||conIorms
towbat |scxpcctcdhom tbcb|dd|ng,sotbcdcIcnscsboo|d progrcsssmootb|v.
Socbdcc|s|onsarctomocboIagocsstob|cIttooncpanncra|onc.
l ZZZ ) mc,PomaMIojm
CHAPTER14
bNb7bcmb
NKmNNLbb
Most contat can be m. Howeve,
most contat can alo b dfeatd . . . .
fom Ply Bett Bre by Rixi Markus ( 1 91 0 - 1992)

`
`
`
`
In this fnal chapter, we come at last to a topic that so far has been neglected in
this bok, which is the considertion of probable cost verus probable gain. This
critical factor in decision-making depnds on the metho of scoring. The Bb's
Blind Rule approach is most suitable to matchpint soring where the fequency
oIsuccess is an overiding consideration. Traditional advice in bridge texts is
slanted more towards IMP play where the safety of the contract is foremost in
the mind of a declarer. There is no need here to repeat the lessns they provide
with regard to card play. Therefore, we shall consider more flly cost verus gain
in the context of bidding.
The early bridge master were sholed in rbbr bridge. As many vetern
player have noted, playing for stakes you cannot aford is the quickest way to
lear, bcause a minus score represents money fowing the other way. It is natural
then that early bridge writer had safety at the forefont of their thinking. This
attitude prevails at IMP scoring where it is not uncommon to see an expr in a
parore play with extreme caution to score eight tricks and a + 1 1 0 result when
at the other table declarer in game gos all out to take ten tricks and score +420.
At rbbr bridge, there is a continuity fom one deal to the next. A partscore
is worh more than its face value. Playing in a minor-suit parial is usefl,
especially when that represents the safest parscore. Even 2NT is a respctable
vulnerble contract, as 1 20 below the line with 30 abve puts pressure on
the oppnents to prevent the completion of the rbbr, ofen with disatrous
co
nsequences to them. Nowadays duplicate bridge dominates the scene and this
has had a profound efect on how probability is applied. At duplicate scoring,
the result on each bard stands on its own without carr-over, so taking twelve
easy tricks in a game contrct is more than merely a missed opportunity for even
g
reater prft -it can represent a real loss. Scoring nine tricks in a contract of
2NT must usually be considered something of a disaster. Minor-suit contracts
sere as a last resor. This afects one's approach to bidding.
Cmm I4 I U ogSysm Iojm Cosu | 223 I
In them|JJ|co|tbctwcnt|ctbccntory, K|x| Mar|os wasaIam|||arhg
orc
at
the mbberbr|Jgctab|cso||amoosc|obs|nLondon,yctbcrapproacbwasso|tab
|c
|or toJay's Jop||catcgamc. As |scv|dcntIrombcrqootc c|tcd abovc, sbc sa
w
tbcgamc as hcrcc|ycompct|t|vc, cacb s|dc bc|ng posbcd to tbc ||m|toIsa|ct
v.
Tb|s |s |n ||ncw|tb today'src||anccontbc Law oITota|Tr|cksto]ost|h
ta|
|ng
cbanccs |nordcr toposbopponcnts toa |os|ngpos|t|on. Sbcd|d not |m
ag|n
c
tbattbcpomoscoIb|dd|ngwastorcst|nasaIcbavcn. '|dbo|d|y, p|aysaIc'was
bcradoptcd motto. Sbcb|dbcrgamcsands|ams,|cav|ng|toptotbcdcIcndcrs
tohnd a way tosct tbc contracts. IItbcyd|d, K|x|coo|dsbrogohtbc rcso|t,
bccaoscsbcd|dnotcxpccttobcsocccssm|cvcnt|mc.
Nonctbc|css,pcrIcct|on|stsohcntmatIa|||nggamcsors|amsascnors. Tbcy
cons|dcr dca|s scpamtc|y ratbcr than |n thc ovcm|| contcxt oItbc tota||ty o|
dca|sp|aycd. Takcna|onc, a Ia||cdgamc may bc cons|dcrcda conscqocncco|
a b|dd|ngcnor, bot |n tbccontcxtoIprobab|cga|nvcnosprobab|c |oss, |n tbc
|ong ron tbcrc sboo|d bc hcqocnt ocas|ons whcn a vo|ontar||y b|d gamc w|||
Ia||. bv|oos|y|IyooncvcrIa|||ngamcyooarcnotb|dd|ngcnooghc|oscgamcs.
Tbcqocst|ontbcn bccomcs. what|sthcopt|momIa||orcmtc' To cons|dcr tb|s
po|nt, |ct's |ok at somc rcso|u hom a mccnt toomamcnt |nvo|v|ng tbc bcst
Amcr|canp|aycrs.
In]onc Z0B, thc N|ckc|| Tcam won thc LSI tr|a|s Ior rcprcscntat|on
|ntbc b|] |ngwor|dcbamp|onsb|ps. Tbc ancborpa|roILr|c Kodwc|| and]c0
Mcckstrotbp|aycdJ4Jdca|s,sothc|rmso|umayscncasago|dctoasocccssm|
stratcgy. Tbcydcc|arcdagamccontmct l0lt|mcs,a29% mtc. TbcyIa||cdJJ
t|mcs,al |nJIa||orcratc. Iromth|scv|dcncc,wcconc|odcthatb|dd|ngah|||ng
gamccontractataratcoII |n l 0bards|svcngobr|dgc.
Tbc|ropponcnts b|d gamc on 87 bams, l4 Icwcr than Mcckwc|| and a
ZJ%ratc, bot |twasnotsw|ngsprooccdbythcd|hcmntcontmcu thatprovcd
dcc|s|vc. O tboscbards,tbcIMIs0owcdcqoa||y|nbtbd|rcct|ons,mmct|mcs
ab|gsw|ngIor Mcckwc||bc|ngomctbymanysma||sw|ngstothc|roppncnts.
Tbc d|hcrcncc |nIavoroIaggrcss|on was probab|y a psycho|og|ca| onc, as tbc
dcIcndcnwcrcconsc|oosoItbcIacttbatthcywoo|dmqocnt|ybcpottotbctcst
oIdcIcat|ngac|oscgamccontracttbatm|ghtnotbb|d|nthcothcrrom.
Mcckwc||'s grcatcst ga|n was dcc|ar|ng a contmct oIJNT. J l t|mcs w|tb
socccss,ga|n|ng I l 0IMIs,and9 t|mcsw|thIa||orc,|os|ng28 IMIs. Tcsw|ng
pcrboard wasroogh|y J IMIs |nc|thcrcasc, bot tbch|gh soccc mtc |nJNT
wbcnp|aycd |nbtbromsprov|dcd tbcmarg|noIv|cton |ntwooIthc|rtbrcc
matcbcs.
Wc may conc|odc that a pamdox|ca| s|toat|on cx|sts. yoo want to b|d
accoratc|y |n ordcr to ma|nta|n a Ia|r|y h|gh mtc oIsocccss |n gamc, bot yoo
do not w|sb to g|vc away |nIomat|on that woo|d hc|p thc dcIcnsc dcIcat tbc
c|osc contracts. Tbc con0|ct |s btwccn max|m|t|ng thc ptcnt|a| ga|n and
max|m|:|ngtbcamoontoI|nIomat|onDm|ttcddor|ngthcaoct|on. Ds|gncrs
| ZZ4 ) me, Poman Iojm
oIb|dd|ngsystcmsarccaogbtop|ntb|scon0|ct. K|x|Markos d|J notaJvocatc
a
comp|cx b|dd|ng systcm, a
|tboogb sbc rccogn|:cd |ts va|oc |n tbc bands oI
cxpcns. Tbc
sccrctpcrbaps
||cs|nbav|ngacomp|cxsctoIagrccmcntsava||ab|c,
as
do Mcckwc||, tbcn cbos|ng not to osc tbcmwbcn tbc s|toat|on dcmands
s|
mp|ic|ty. Tboscwbob|dcrodc|yw|thoottbcbcnchtoIan |nIormat|vcsystcm
do not have this option.
Those who play a twooverone system without the bneft of limited opning
b|dsmosttreat each game-going hand as having slam potential, which requires
informative exchanges at the early stages of bidding bfore appropriate limits
arcestablished. Lng auctions to a game contrct provide defender with usefl
inforation. Those who opn light within a Big Club system that immediately
establishes limited rsurces can bid crdely to game with sme hope that a slam
basnot ben missed in the press. They have the advantage of the lesser risk
when no slam is viable.
When Scores Are Relative
You sh alwa:s NR 0lvel equal R 0con
numb of tmps mUb :our sie.
Tr not R lt 0oppnenr pl: at a lvel equ R
0anumb of tmps .
excerts fom To Bi LNot R Bi by Larr Chen
Whereas in early days the emphasis in bidding was on what you thought your
side could make, in moem times the rtionale has changed to include what you
think the oppsition can make. In order to win, one must ocasionally beat par
and one way of achieving this is to push the oppnents byond their level of safety.
This should b attempted even when one's side dos not pssess the majority
of the HCP Lr Chen's two maxims, quoted abve, grossly exagerte the
imprtance of the total numbr of trmps relative to the deal as a whole, but they
set the tone in what is now undertod to b a fnite interdependent world.
If one thinks along the lines abve, the emphasis shifs fom HCP toLTC
( losing trick count). Although with a 4432 shap the probability of fnding a 44
ft in one of the long suits is 60%, there is no shortage to enhance the loser count.
Tis common shap is classifed as a notrmp hand. With a 543 1 hand, the
probability of having an 8+-card ft in one of the longer suits is 74%; one expects
the singleton will enance one's chances as declarer, and consequently the LTC
bcomes the primar metho of hand evaluation. This leads to opening hands
'light' in HCP content, a common practice that still bafes some conseratives,
even though light opning bids have a long histor.
Cmm I4 l USysm IojmCosu l 225 |
bscrv|ngaroomIo|oIbr|Jgcp|aycrsatp|ay|nmyc|ob,tbcconc|os|onth
at
bcrc wcbavcagatbcr|ngoIIcrvcntadm|rcrsoItbc poct, v|d, |snotobv|o
us

yct |t |s so. Tbcy bavc cngravcd on tbc|r bcarts b|s say|ng, 'Mcd|a tat|ss|
as
|a|s' (O gocs most sajc|y |n 0 mU) . Tbcy adbcrc to tbc corrcnt b|dJ|ng
Iasb|on, wb|cb |sOGh Ond|sc|p||ncd Z/l Gamc Iorc|ng. Tb|s maynotbc tbc
bcstapproacb takcn |n|so|at|on,bottbcyknowtbat|Itbcaoct|on|ands tbcm|n
abadcontractat|casttbcycancxpcctanavcragcrcso|t. Tbca|m|stom|n|m|:c
costratbcrtbanmax|m|:cga|n.
Kl udge Rhymes with Fudge
Ibt th umnmnu0 Umc.
Man|nM|nsky
kudge: 1 ) An il kJssorted colletion of porly mathed parts frming a
di stressing whole.
2) A quick fx K a computr system that i s ineficient, inelegant,
even unfthomable, but which nevertheless works, more or less.
Wc bavc a|rcady |ntrooccd L M|nsky's v|cws on tbc patcbwork cvo|ot|on
oItbc boman bra|n. Inthatrcgard, I obscnc tbat tbc North Amcr|canma|c
|s concnt|y bc|ng k|odgcd hom toogh cowby to tcndcr nanny. W||| soc|a|
prcssorcsbccnoogbtochcctamorcor|csssocccssm|convcn|onovcrtcnsbort
gcncrat|onsorw|||mndom actsoIv|o|cncccont|noctomarthc|andscapc'
Asa compotcrsc|cnt|stspcc|a||:|ng|nan|hc|a| |ntc|||gcncc, M|nsky |sIam|||ar
w|tbtbcpatcbcstowb|cbtbcscconddchn|t|onrcIcn. A||oscrsarcIam|||ar
w|tb tbc cvcr-cvo|v|ng W|ndows oprat|ng systcm. otward|y, hom vcrs|on
to vcn|on, tbc bas|c mnct|ons sccm to opcmtc |n a s|m||ar Iasb|on, s|ncc
cacb ncw vcn|on most rcma|n morcor |css compat|b|c w|tb car||croncs, but
opgradcs arc rcqo|rcd to accommodatc onant|c|patcd ncw mnct|ons, socb as
|ntcmctcommon|cat|ons. Attbccorc,W|ndowsmma|ns|tso|d|ncmc|cntsc|I,
sosccpt|b|ctopcnctrat|onbyk|||crv|mscs.
b|dd|ngsystcmsprcscntosw|tbc|ass|ccxamp|csoIk|odgcs. Tbccvo|ot|on
oItbc spcc|cs |snotthrooghmndamcnta|rcstmctor|ng,botratbcrtbroogbtbc
add|t|onoImo|t|tod|noosconvcnt|ona| patcbcs to covcr op wcakncsscs. Te
5opprt Dob|c |s onc soch patch that advanccs a pa|r's ab|||ty to compctc
aga|nst |ntcrIcrcncc. O thcotbcrhand,jacobyTmnsIcnrcprcscntcdtbconsct
oIamndamcnta|cbangctowardsrc|ayb|ds,cvo|ot|onawayhomthcnatora|to
tbcart|hc|a|,homtbc |ncmc|cnttothccmc|cnt. Asystcmbascdonrc|ays|s
a
mndamcnta| stcp opward |n thc dcvc|opmcnt oIbcttcr b|dd|ng systcm-. Te
| 226 ) nc,PommaMIojm
general playing pub
l
i
c wedde
d to natural bidding is getting left behind and, it
appears, is in th
e process of be
c
oming extinct.
Do Bi ddi ng Systems Make a Di ference?
O- h wh jmcmpmm|tkmcudrve R m0.
Johann Wolfgang von Gothe | I 749- I BJZI
David Bird h commented (glomily?) that bidding systems are like religions:
one sticks to what one is hm into. Lcoure, he refers to the masses. Recent
public opinion sureys show that most Brits are non-religious but do believe
in Heaven; it's j ust that they can't agree on how to get there. Tey are not
happy unless they ar miserble. Otherise, why rebuild a modem theater by the
Tames with no seats in the pit and no rof to cover it ?
A bidding system is not, however, a religion; it is the language by which
parner communicate. Te meanings of the bids are sometimes in doubt, but the
fequency of the bids deterines the amount of information they contain. Some
author have the opinion that a god bid is one that may lead to several diferent
conclusions; that is, a bid that is fexible. Nebulous doubles in competition are
a breed of this n Such vague bids, by not being specifc, are less inforative
than closely defned bids. The exchange of information has parallels in bidding
and cardplay -the more pssible sequences in defenders' play, the less likely is a
particular division of the cards. A highly unusual bid, like a highly unusual play,
is inforative. Commonplace activity is not greatly inforative, because it is
much to b expected.
Although some argue that languages don't make a diference, they do. How
one defnes the cost of communication deterines how the system operates.
We'll demonstrate this below, but frt, here is a comment by a British expert,
Eric Crowhurt, appearing in his Ftco|onU |ng|nAco||I 974I .
Fourteen world's championshi ps i n the last seventeen years i s a record that
i s unl i kely to b ever equal led, and since the I tl ians have employed a series
of big club systems throughout thi s perio, the doubtul conclusion has been
drawn that therei n l ies the key to their success . . . there i s no evidence to suggest
that they would not have won all thei r furteen world's championships if they
had adopted a natural bidding system l i ke Acol and developed and analyzed
it with thei r customary thoroughness.
It is tre there is no evidence of the n alluded to, nor will there ever be, but
that is not a god rason for ignoring the evidence we do have bfore us. Why
not adopt a winning approach? Howard Schenken, the greatest American player
CmpmI4 l U ogSysm IojmaMCosu | 227 I
o|b|s cra, a|tcr |os|ngto tbc | ta| |ans,camc toan cnt|rc|yJ|dcrcntconc|us|o
n
|omCrowburst-tbattbc | ta| |answonbccausco|tbc|rb|JJ|ngsystcms. Thc
| ta||anstbcmsc|vcstbougbtasmucb.
Sowbat|s|ttbatma|cstbcd|dcrcncc' Wcsba||sbowtbat|t|ssomcth|ng
tbat |soItcnovcr|oo|cd |nad|scoss|onoIb|dJ|ngsystcms -|t |stbcpas I0|c, a
mcasorcoIbowohcnyoors|Jcopcnstbcb|dJ|ng. Tbc|owcryourpassratc, thc
morcaggrcss|vcyooarcasap|aycr.
Determi ne Your Pass Rate Comfort Zone
l s | t no0ngR you,a||yctmtps . . . !
Lamcntat|ons I . I Z
Hcrc |sa tcstyoocanpcrIormona ra|nyahcmoon todctcrm|nctbcpassratc
w|tbwb|cbyooarcpcrsona||ycomIortab|c. Iromtbcpr|ntootsoItbrccJZ-boarJ
scss|onsoIcompotcrdca|t bands, takc tbc n|ncty-s|xbands tbat wcrc Jca|t to
Sootb. D|v|dctbcsc cqoa||y|ntotwocatcgor|csoIIorty-c|gbtbanJscacb,gooJ
and bad. Now d|v|dccacboItbc Iorty-c|gbtbands|ntogod and baJ,y|c|J|ng
Ioorcatcgor|csoItwcnty-Ioorbandscacb. Lt|y,d|v|dctbosccqoa||ytoy|c|J
c|gbtcatcgor|csoItwc|vcbandscacb. T|sg|vcsyooaproh|casIo||ows.
Cator Class
i
caton Cator Class
i
caton
1 best 5 notsead
2 good 6 por
3 decent 7 bad
4 soso 8 worst
|Iyoorpass ratc |s JO%, yoo woo|d pass onbands |nCatcgor|cs J-BanJopcn
tbc b|dd|ng w|tb Catcgor|cs I -4. T|s |s cons|dcrcd somcwbat aggrcss|vc. |I
yoo woo|d b|don ba|IoItbcCatcgon4 bands, yoorpass ratc |sa ma|nstrcam
conscrvat|vc J%. |Iyoowoo|db|donba|IoItbcCatcgonJ bands,yoorpass
ratc |s44%, wb|cb |scons|dcrcd Ia|r|y aggrcss|vc. Tbc tbcorct|ca||yopt|mom
passmtc,str|ct|yhoman|nIormat|onstandpo|nt,|sapprox|matc|ytbatwb|cb|s
acb|cvcdbyb|dd|ngona||bands|nCatcgor|cs I tbroogbJ. T|s |scons|dcrcJ
ovcr|yaggrcss|vc,botbasbccnacb|cvcdatt|mcs|nmatcbcsoIovcr I0banJs.
Hav|ng pcnormcd tbc tcst andgaogcd yoor prcIcncd sty|c, don't hgbt |t.
adoptasystcmtbathtsyoornatora|tcndcncy. Kccppartncr|nIormcd. | bavc
donctb|stcstandbavcIoondmyowntcndcncytobontbcs|dcoIagrcss|on.
Most systcmsbavcyooopcn|ngw|tbgodbandsand pass|ng tbcobv|oos|ybad
bands,sotbcpassratc|sdctcrm|ncdbywbatyoodow|tbtbcm|dd|ccatcgor|cs.
Myowngo|dc||nc|stoopcna||bands w|tb I Z ormorcHCI W|tb|csstban I Z
HC|opcna||bandsw|tbIcwcrtbanc|gbt|oscn,andmostoItboscbandstbat
| 228 ) me, Pom|||Iojmooo
bavcc|gbt |o
scrsanJ t
br
ecormorccontro|s. Somc banJs w|tb n|nc|oscrsanJ
Ioorcontro|sm|g
bt
bcopcncJ.
My
tcstovcrn|ncty-s|xbanJs proJoccJ tbcIo||ow|ngbanJs 3 tbccr|t|ca|
cascs. Sccbowmanyyoowoo|J ||kctoopcn,non-vo|ncrab|c, |Itbcrc wcrc a
so|tab|ydcscr|pt|vcb|Java||ab|c.
I
Z 8 4
A Q 9 S 2 K 1 0 9 S 4 3 A 1 0 9 4 3 QJ b 6 4 3
< A 9 7 6 5 < 6 4 < AJ S 7 4 3 < 7
< 2
< 7 3 < 6 5 < 6 5
7 A Q 6 K Q S 6
0 I 8
A 9 6 2 AJ 1 0 9 1 0 K 9 6
< < Q S 6 4 3 2 < A 5 4 < A S 5 4 3 2
< A S 2 < K J 7 < K 1 0 7 5 < A 9 4
+ Q 1 0 9 S 6 5 + A 7 5 3 2 3
9 I 0 I I I Z
J S 7 5 4 2 K Q 5 4 2 A 6 5 3 2
< K J 9 < < Q 9 S 6 4 < A 6 3
< 7 6 < Q 1 0 b 5 4 < 1 0 3 < 7 3
+ A 1 0 S 5 2 AJ 9 7 6 3 K 4 3
I 8 I 4 I I 0
9 7 3 A S 1 0 b 7 K 9 S
< Q < 1 0 9 6 3 < K QJ 2 < 7 6 4 3
< AJ 1 0 7 5 < Q S 2 < A 9 5 4 < K S
+ K 1 0 7 4 K Q 9 S J S K J 9 S
I I I 8 I 9 Z0
7 5 A 1 0 9 3 A K 7 3 K J 9 7 6
< 1 0 7 < A 1 0 S 3 2 < S 6 < 1 0 6
< A K S 7 5 < 4 < J 1 0 7 6 3 < A 1 0 7 6
Q 1 0 4 3 S 5 2 4 3 5 4
ZI ZZ Z8 2
A S S A Q 9 6 K Q 7 6 A K J S 3
< J 9 7 4 3 < J 6 2 < A 9 S < S 7
< A 7 6 < K 1 0 4 < Q S 2 < J 9 5
1 0 7 J 7 6 7 6 2 7 5 3
CmmI 4 l U ogSysm IojmaMCosu | 229 I
Thcrc arcanothcrth|rty-s|xbanJs |nmysamp|c tbat w|||bcopcncds|ncctbcy
conta|n 1 2 HC| AJdtotbatnombcrtbcnombcroIbandshomtbcsc twcnty-
Iooronwh|cbyoowoo|dopcntbcb|dd|ng. Tbcb|dratc|stbatnombcrd|v|Jc
J
by9. Tbcpassratc |s I m|nostbc b|d ratc. O my tcst, | woo|d bavc ||kcdto
opcnon twcnty oItbcsc twcnty-Ioor bands, non-vo|ncrab|c, so mypassratc |s
4I %. |I| bad cboscn toopcnon a|| twcnty-Ioorbands, mypassratcoIJ7. J%
woo|d bavc bccn ncar tbc |nIormat|on-tbcorct|c opt|mom tbat max|m|:cs
tbc
contr|bot|onoIas|ng|cca||totbcovcra||cntropyoItbcsystcm.
Yoo sboo|d a|so ask yoonc|Iwbctbcr tbcrc arc bands yoo woo|d opcn |n
tb|rd scat, bot not |n hrst orsccond scat. IItbcrc arc a s|gn|hcant nombcro|
tbcsc,yoorb|dd|ngsystcmcannotbccons|dcrcdscam|css,soad]ostmcnts|n tbc
rcsponscstroctorcarcrcqo|rcd. TcDnconvcnt|on|soncobv|ooscbo|ccIor
atb|rd-bandopcn|ngb|dstmctorc.
Average Information Related to the Pass Rate
Dctcrm|nc tbc pass ratc and yoo know wbctbcr a systcm can bc c|ass|hcd as
conscnat|vcoraggrcss|vc. Cnscnat|vcpa|rsw|||paonmorctban J%oItbc
bands dca|t,wbcrcas aggrcss|vc pa|n w|||paonIcwcrtban J0% oItbcbands
dca|ttbcm. Tbc twotypcsbavc ad|hcrcntcst|matcoIbowcost|y |t|stopass.
ncoIobv|oosmodcm cbangcbasbcntorcdocc tbcpmtcbya|tcr|ngtbc
mcan|ngoItwo-|cvc|opcn|ngs, rcmov|ng thcmhomthcstrongcatcgon totbc
wcaktwosadvoatcdbyHowardbbcnkcn.
To sccbowa |owcrpassmtcy|c|dsamorc|nIomat|vcb|dd|ngsystcm,|ct's
|ok at a s|mp||hcd strong notromp moc|Iorwb|cb tbc constroct|vc b|ds arc
||m|tcd to I 4throogb I. pcncr passcs, b|ds a strong 1 NT, orb|ds b|s bcst
so|t. |dsattbctwo-|cvc|arc|gnorcd,botthcscarcmrc|nmostsystcm,tbc|r
om|ss|on|snotmatbcmat|ca||ys|gn|hcantIordcmonstmt|onpomoscs. Wc|ok
attbrccpassratcsand tbc|rchcctontbcavcmgcamoontoI|nIomat|on | tbc
cntropyItransm|ttcd|nanopcn|ngca||.
1
p
Conservative 0.56
Aggressive 0.48
Very Aggressive 0.40
Prbbilit mChoic
1. 1 1 1.
0. 1 0 0. 1 0 0. 1 0 0. 1 0
0. 1 2 0. 1 2 0. 1 2 0. 1 2
0. 1 4 0. 1 4 0. 1 4 0. 1 4
1NT
0.04
0. 04
0.04
Avr
g
e Inf
1 .00
1 .09
1 . 1 6
A conscnat|vcsystcm |s |nIomat|vcwbcn tbcband |sopcncdw|tha b|d,bot
on|nIomat|vcwbcnapass|smadc.Tbatmakcsscnscrcgamscostchcct|vcncss.
Wbyg|vcaway|nIomat|on|Iyoodon'tmtctodcc|arctbchand,somcask. In
I ZJ0 I nc,FmmnaMIojmm
a vcnamrcss|vc systcm, t
bc
so|tb|Js arc |css |nIormat|vc, bot tbc |nIormat|on
conta|ncJ |n a pass ca||
morc tbancompcnsatcs. vcra||, tbc vcry amrcss|vc
approachy
|c|Jsmorc|nIormat|onby 1 6%. Tbcbopc|stbatoncmaycompctc
mom cmc|cnt|y |thc opponcnts cntcr thc aoct|on. IIpanncrbas passcJ, bc
musthavcavcnbadhand, |cav|ngoncmorchccJomIorprccmpt|vcact|on.
Biddi ng Space: The Basic Cost of I nformation
Anopcn|ngca||transm|ts|nIomat|onabutthccardshc|dbythcp|aycr,5can
bcthoughtoI3 thcmcssagc,sc|cctcdhomasma||numbcroIpss|b|cmcssagcs,
that most c|ow|y dcr|bs thc handhc orshc ho|ds. Lach ca|| h 8|atcd
w|th |taprobab|||noIb|ngsc|cctcd3 thcmostappropr|atcdcscr|ptor,and,3
somcca||mustbsc|cctcd,thcsumoIthcscprobab|||t|cs|sun|ty. Thcdcs|gncr
oIa b|dd|ng systcm noma||y bg|ns by dchn|ng wh|ch hands Ia|| w|th|n thc
catcgonoIag|vcnb|d,thcconscqucnccb|ngthatth|sdchn|t|onautomat|ca||y
dctcm|ncs| |nthconIthcprobab|||tythatth|sca||w|||bchoscnatthctab|c.
Thc|nIomat|on|nab|dhan|nvcncm|at|onsh|ptothcpmbab|||tythat
thcg|vcnb|dw|||bsc|cctcdhoma||pss|b|cb|ds. Thcrarcrthcb|d,thcmorc
thc|nIomat|ontmnsm|ttcd,thcmorchcqucntthcb|d,thc|css|tconvcys. Wc
do notnccdtoknowwhatag|vcnb|dmcans|nordcrtoca|cu|atcthcamountoI
|nIormat|on |tconta|ns. Ab, |nthc |n|t|a|stagcs,wcdonotnccd tocst|matc
howuwm|th|s|nIomat|on|s.
Thcavcmgc |nIomat|on Ior a systcm oIb|ds, tcmcd thc cntropy, cqua|s
thc sum oI thc |nIomat|on |n cach ca|| mu|t|p||cd by |ts pmbab|||ty oI
ocumncc. To commun|catc cmc|cnt|y, asystcm mustpsscss thcpropcnoI
h|gh cntmpy, mcan|ngthat thcca||s must bdcs|gncd5 that on avcmgc thcy
transm|t |nIomat|on to a h|gh dcgrcc. Thc pr|nc|p|coImax|mum cntropy |s
wc|| cstab||shcd and mcthos arc ava||ab|c Iordctcm|n|ng how to max|m|tc
avcmgc|nIomat|onundcrvar|ousconstm|nts-|nothcrwords,howtoass|gn
probab|||t|cstothcvar|ousca||sIormax|mumchcct|vcncss|nth|smgard.
Strong J umps Must Be I nformative
W she mpsed, it seeed kk0ceain of exuisit mma.
homThe Day uDon by
HcnnWadswonhLongIc||ow( 1 807 1 882)
5tmngjumpstogamcarccxpcns|vcbcauscthcyuscupb|dd|ngspaccandput
pmssurcononc'spanncr. 5ystcmdcs|gncndowc||toavo|dthcmun|cssthcyarc
CmmI 4 I USysm Iojman Cosu ( ZJl ]
narrow|yJchncJ. Gorcn strong two-b|Jsarc tb|ngsoItbcpast. Tbctwo-|cvc|
|snowoscJIoropcn|ngw|tbwcakbands,sotbccost|nb|dd|ngspacc|stomcJ
|ntoanassctwbcntbcbandbc|ongstotbcopponcnts. |nsocbc|rcomstanccs,
oncw|sbcstoopcnattbctwo-|cvc|as oItcnas poss|b|c,rcmov|ngIromtbcpass
category suitable distributional candidates. A rcccnt expen trcnd |s towards
two-suited two-level openings, as the hands for them ocur more fequently tban
trditional weak twos. Lcoure, the more a bid is employed, the less |nIormat|on
it conveys, 5a weak, wide-rnging jump bid can backfre when the hand bc|ongs
to the side that ha preempted. Again we see there is a comprom|sc |nvo|vcJ.
When one pan of a system is changed, the efects are felt through a rangcoI
bids. One efect that crops up with regularity is that a simple opening bid madc
on a four-loser hand leads to problems. Here is an example fom the bng||sb
Ldies Trials in Februar Z0B.
Dukor
4 A K 4
c K
A K Q 1 0 4 3
4 K 9 4
Duckor
1
3NT
D
Ok
l e
ptt
Ok
1 0
c A 8 7 5 3
8 5
4 AJ 6 5 2
Making 520
In defense of Duckwonh's action, a rebid of JNT cenainly describs the tr|ck-
taking potential of her hand, but it is ver difcult for her panner to fnd a b|d
over JNT Jumping past twelve units of bidding space is not cost efective in
a constrctive auction. She could instead have lied and jump-shifed into Z4.
My major objection to this approach is that I know when I am lying, but bow
do I know when it's my panner who is exercising her option? Striving always to
tell the trth is less complicated. On this hand, opning an under-strength Z4
proved to b the leser risk, as slam was easily bid at the other table afer that
bginning. One can imagine the questioning as Ms. Cok is brought bfore the
Bridge Inquisition to explain her action.
`Lcoure, I knew Ducky had a four-loser hand, and I did recognize the fact
I held two aces, but four minus to equals to, 5 there were to loser still,
weren't there?'
'No, my dear, you are mistaken: four minus two dos not equal two.'
This problem is not unique to Acol. In the Febrar Z0Bissue of the ACBL
Bre Bultn, the same auction was presented in a quiz. Keri Sabr thought
the following four-loser hand was a pssibility:
| 7?7 l Rwdoa Pnhmnm nm
. A 6 3 3 O A K Q 9 8 3 2 . K 2
This wou
ld be her sugested auction in that case:
AC8L Wnbm
A 6 3
D
J
3 < A K 1 0 9 6 5
0 A K Q 9 8 3 2 0 7 4
K 2 A QJ 6
AC8L Wnbm
1 0 1 <
3NT 5'
5+ 7NT
1 . Aceski ng.
The fact that Sanbr feels the need to ask for aces implies uncerainty as to the
requirements for the jump. I am not sure how one establishes hearts as trmps
in the situation where opener has Vx and responder is void in diamonds. The
situation cries out for a redefnition within the system in which a less costly rebid
by opner is forcing and opns the pssibility of a usefl exchange of inforation
below the game level.
I nformati on and Cost in Modern Systems
TmImmuwkLuTmmmchn tt canmdcso|acd0
agvmaU, 0|css|njmoon0a|dconm|m.Aa|dtatc|ymcd|s
ipso facto |d|y|njmt|vc.
Oe cannot make decisions based solely on the probability of success, the reason
being that cost also enter as a consideration. Abidding system is a compromise
between maximizing the information content of bids (reliability and defnition)
while minimizing the cost -which touches upn many factors, some of them of
a psychological nature.
The following table shows estimates of the fequency of various opening calls
in fve-card major systems employed by fve famous partnerships participating in
the Cap Gemini IMP Pair Contest during the late 1 990s. These represent fve
diferent ways of coping with cost.
Cmm I4 l U ogSysm IojmoooaMCosu l ZJJ I
OpeningCall
Foss l 4 l 0 I l 9 IMl Clher
lev-Mari . 55 . 1 2 . 1 2 .07 .07 .05 .03
Zia-Forrester . 5 1 . 1 3 . 1 0 .07 . 04 .04 . 1 0
Chagas-Branco . 5 1 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 08 .08 .07 . 06
Berkowitz-ohen . 46 . 08 . 1 6 .06 .06 . 1 0 .09
Meckwell . 42 .09 . 1 9 .07 . 04 .09 . 1 1
In br|dgc tcrms, tbc o|tra-conscnat|vc Ircncb cbamp|ons A|a|n Lcvy anJ
Cbr|st|an Mar| wcrc m||cs apart hom tbc sopcr-aggrcss|vcjchMcckstrotb anJ
br|cKodwc||. Lcvy-Mar|wcrcc|ass|ca||yconscrvat|vcprccmptorswborcqo|rcJ
m|| va|ocs Ior tbc|r constroct|vc opcn|ng b|ds |n hrst or sccond scat, wbcrcas
Mcckwc|| strctcbcd to opcn tbc b|dd|ng- tbcy cmp|oycd tbc Kam|ka:c No
Tromp, 9- I Z HC| non-vo|ncrab|c vcrsos vo|ncrab|c. brkow|t:-Cobcn oscJ
anaggrcss|vcsystcmconscnat|vc|y. Z|a-Iorrcstcrp|aycd a conscrvat|vc systcm
aggrcss|vc|y, wb||c tbc sopcrb ra:|||an pa|r oI Gabr|c| Cbagas and Marcc|o
rancocanbctboogbtoIastbccp|tomcoItbcbappymcd|an. Tbctbrccpa|rs
w|tbtbc|owcrpassratcscmp|oycdtbcwcaknotromp,as|scv|dcnt|ntbcb|gbcr
hcqocnc|csoItbatopcn|ngb|d.
Inb|sngcwmUart|c|c'WbatSba||WcI|ay''|jonc, I 999l , LarryCobcn
argocdaga|nstdcta||cdb|dd|ngagrccmcnts, yct adm|tsbcand Dav|dcrkow|t:
bad scvcnty pagcs oI Ircc|s|on systcm notcs wb|cb bad to bc comm|ttcd to
mcmon. Wbat bcd|dcmpbas|:c |s partncnb|pprcd|ctab|||ty. bc aggrcss|vcor
bcpass|vc,botbccons|stcnt. Ircd|ctab|||tybcanopontbc|nIormat|oncontcnt
oIaca||.b|dd|ngcons|stcnt|yaccord|ngtopr|orgo|dc||ncs|samcansoIpass|ng
rc||ab|c |nIormat|on to onc's partncr. Inotbcr words, tbc |oscr tbc b|dd|ng,
tbc |css |nIormat|on |t convcys. Into|t|vc|y, |t woo|d appcar tbat tbc morc
|nIormat|vcab|dd|ngscqocncc,tbcbcttcrtbcrcso|tsboo|dbconavcragc,and
Cbcn'sscvcntypagcsappcartosopport tb|snot|on. O tbcotbcrband,|Itbc
c|a|m|sconcct tbatmodcmb|dd|ngsystcmsarcmorcor|csscqoa||ychcct|vc|or
|nchcct|vcl , tbcspcc|hc|nIormat|onab|dconta|ns|soIsccondan|mportancc.
bksonb|dd|ngsystcmscmpbas|:ctbcdcta||soItbcopcn|ngb|dsandtbc
ways to rcspond to tbcm, wb||c m|ss|ng tbc most |mponant cbaractcr|st|c o|
systcm, wb|cb |s tbc pass mtc. AsIar w|nn|ng a toomamcnt |sconccmcd,
oncbastodowc||ontbcdca|sonwb|cbonc'ss|dcbbcgonw|tbapass|nhrst
orsccondscat|IIornootbcrrcontbattbcscdca|sIarootnombcrtbcdca|sIor
wb|cb tbc csotcr|c dcta||s oI rcspond|ng to otbcr b|ds w||| makc a d|hcrcncc.
Tb|s po|nt was madc |n my an|c|c 'Tbc W|nn|ng bdgc' tbat appcarcd |n tbc
ZOOODcccmbcr|ssocoIngcMaganm,andtbccv|dcncchomtbcCapGcm|n|
toomamcntsbcantb|soot|ndramat|cIb|on.
Cons|dcrtbcopcn|ngb|doII |ntbcbandsoItbchvccxpcrtpa|n. Tbc
probab|||ty oIopcn|ng I |svcn mocb on|Iormacross tbc hc|d, wb|cb mcans
( 234 ) r|de,From|||aMIojmooo
the amoont
o||n|ormat|on|n
tbat b|J |smocbtbcsamcfo
r a|| pa|rs. Cana|cw
dcta||s|n tbcscbc
d
u|co|rcsponscsbear much mit ' HarJ|y||kc|y, |s |t ' Tbcrc
aren't tbat many banJs tbat are opened with a b|J oIoncof a major. On the
o
ther banJ,apassocurs about half of the time. Let's concentrate on that.
What Di d They Gai n by Passi ng?
A bid is a bid and a pass is a call, but both actions are messages that transmit
information. The pass rate afects the information content of the system taken as
a whole. Here is the inforation content of a pass for four famous pairs playing
in the Cap Gemini. It is reasonable to ask how successfl these pairs were when
they began with a pas.
Pair Ps Ra lnfnaon Rela Inf
Lev-ari 0.56 0.580 0.86
ChagasBranco 0.5 1 0. 673 1 .0
Berkowit-ohen 0.46 0. 777 1 . 1 6
Meckwell 0.42 0. 892 1 . 33
The amount of inforation in an initial pass is -log (pass rate). Relative to the
happy median, the Meckwell pass contains 33% more inforation and the Levy
Mari pass contains 1 4% less. How dos this relate to the numbr of IMPs won or
lost across the feld of sixteen experts?
lari
ChagasBranco
Meckwell
Is Won or Lt WI W8
Pass
-3
60
46
Preempts
-7
1 6
9
The conserative French style was not conducive to gathering IMPs. This
analyst prefer that Meckwell had achieved results superior to the Brazilians,
but notes that Meckwell perhaps were to swingy in their approach. Cenainly
Chagas-Branco competed well using a moderate pass rate. Norally one does
not expect to do well when bth panner pass. O sixt-six deals of this n,
Levy-Mari lost 40 IMPs. The Brazilians won 1 4 IMPs on forty-seven deals, a
go margin abve averge. Meckwell gained 4 IMPs on forty-four deals, an
amazing achievement.
Here is how three top competitor in the Cap Gemini scored using various
opening calls for the two years, 1 998-99, in which Zia-Forester panicipated.
Cmm I4 l U ogSysm IojmaMCosu ( 235 ]
Rcg|stcr|ng a pos|t|vc scorc aga|nst an cxpcrt hc|d |s a major accomp||sbmcnt
anJapa|rscor|ng IOO| MIs|ntbccvcntwas|ncontcnt|onIorhrstp|acc.
lMsWonorwst W8 W
Fo l4 l0 lV 1. INT Totl
Chagas-Branco 60 1 7 6 0 -5 24 1 1 3
Zia-Forrester 92 -1 -8 25 1 8 6 1 34
Berkowitz-ohen 1 01 -38 1 2 1 3 - 48 1 55
Tccons|stcntmcasorcoIsocccss|sbowwc||tbcpartncrsb|pd|dahcran|n|t|a|
pass.Tbcproport|onoIIMIswonaItcrapassbypartncr|sb|gbIorZ|a-Ioncstcr,
Io||y9% oItbc IMIs won by tbcm bc|ong to tb|s catcgon. Tbc partncrsb|p
w|tbtbc|owcstpassmtcd|dtbcbcstahcrtbcymadctbc|rrc|at|vc|y|nhcqocnt
ca||. Sorpr|s|ng|y, tbcIrcc|s|onpa|rsohcrcdas|gn|hcant|oss w|tb tbc|rstrong
c|obb|d, tbcpartoItbc|rsystcmtbatmostbavctakcnopmanyoItbc|rscvcnty
pagcs oI notcs. btb wcak-notmmpcrs s|gn|hcant|y ootscorcd Z|a-Ioncstcr's
strongnotrompopcn|ng.
The Cost of Passi ng
To commjcatu0hcgnn|ngojw.
brtrandKossc|||l B7Z- l 970I
It|sohcnsa|dbytboscoIacaot|oosm|ndtbattbcw|nncnoImatcbcsarctbosc
wbomakcIcwcrm|stakcs. Wat, bowcvcr, |sam|stakc' Is |tarcasonab|cp|ay
tbat bappcnstorcso|t |nabadscorc' No. br|dgc |sagamcoIprobab|||t|cs,so
p|ay|ng w|tbtbcoddsdosn'ta|waysw|n. cntboscwbow|n |na|ongmatcb
arc thoscwbocmp|oycost-chcct|vcb|dd|ngmctbos. ItC bcost|ytopass.
Tbcrc|satcndcncyamongcommcntatontoovcmmpbas|tctbcr|skthatcomcs
hom tbc poss|b|||ty tbat tbosc wbo opcn ||gbt w||| b pna||tcd. Hcm |s an
|||ostrat|onhomtbchna|soItbc Z075p|ngo|dw|tb Kuss|a-Fo|andvcnostbc
OSA. Tbcopcn|ngb|dwas||gbtbymoststandardsandoncbr|t|shcommcntator
onwasmovcdtoask|Ianyonccou|dcxp|a|ntbcmt|ona|cbh|nd|t. Tbc
rcso|tsontbcboardprov|dcdananswcr. Aqocst|ontbatm|ghtbavcbcnbttcr
askcd|stb|s.wbat|stbccostoIpass|ngw|tbabandthatcoo|dbopcncd'
nc cost |s sc|I-|n0|ctcd. ahcr pass|ng |n hnt or sccond scat, thc pass|ng
p|aycr hnds tbat |n a constmct|vc aoct|on w|tbout |ntcdcrcncc hc h bcn
onab|c to cxprcss tbc m|| va|oc oIb|s l l HCF Tbc tcmptat|on |s to b|d to
b|gbcvcn|Itbcva|ocoItbcbandbasnotsobstant|a||y|ncmascd.5.j.5|mon,a
wr|tcrw|tb ab|gbdcgrccoI|ns|gbt |ntoabr|dgcp|aycr'spsycbo|og, notcdtb|s
| ZJ I nc,PommIojmm
tcnJcncy anJ Iormo|atcJ tbc Ir|nc|p|c oItbc Lcsscr K|sk. tbcrc |s |css r|sk |n
opcn|ngtbcb|JJ|ng||gbttban|npass|nganJovcrb|JJ|ng|atcr. T|s|strocoI
anysystcm. So|tprovcJ.
A S K 6 3 2 < K J 5 + 1 0 6 4 2
Vu|ncmb|c, Kowc|| opcncd th|s th|n hand w|th thc ncbu|oos Ircc|s|on 10.
Mcckstrothw|thadcccnt l Z HCFhandconta|n|ng9B71Zmadcagamctn,
wh|chKowc||dcc||ncdtopunuc. bythct|mcthcyhadrcachcdthcthrcc-|cvc|
thcyhadcxchangcdcnough|nIomat|ontorca||tcthcyshou|dhavcstoppcdtwo
|cvc|ssoncr.'Ahal ' thoughtmmc,'nowMcckwc||w|||rccc|vcj ostpun|shmcnt
Ior thc|r0agmt ovcr-b|dd|ng.' Lndoub|cd, Mcckstroth wcnt down twoIor a
|oss oI Z0.
W|ththcsamccards,AndmwGromovbganw|thapmdcntpassandwas
duc,so|tsccmcd,toga|nIMFsonthcmcr|toIthcsaIctyoIh|sact|on. Howcvcr,
ahcrDub|n|nhadshowns|x spadcs,Gromov cons|dcmd hcowcd h|spartncra
tcntat|vc m|sc. Dub|n|n tok h|m scr|oos|y and sugcstcd a contract oIJNT
|nthchopc thath|s panncrcou|dsupp|y stumng |nspadcs. N|ckc||, ho|d|ng
Kjl 0Jbh|ndthc|ongspadcs,doub|cd.
P |ttumcd out, Gromov wmab|c tocscapcIor downonc |nstcad oIthc
down twothatwaspss|b|conthc |ayout,m |n thccnd thcbard wasposhcd
at -Z0. No cost toc|thcr s|dc, an |nconc|us|vc msu|t, buta c|osc ca|| Ior tbc
Kuss|am,whohadtakcnthcgmatcrr|sk. Lcounc,Gromovcou|dhavcpasscd
ZIorasma||ga|n,butmatchcsamnotwonbyascr|csoIsma||ga|ns,cspcc|a||y
aga|nstthcag|vcMcckwc||. jchMcckstmthhnotcd|nh|sb kw|n0
Be Bol wr Me that|t|sbttcrtostanw|th3 s||ghtovcrb|dmthcrthan
to p. Whcthcrornot Kowc||'scontro|-r|ch l0 was 's||ght' |n thc ovcrb|d
catcgon,onc|cavcstoMcckwc||todcc|dc.
The Majors-Fi rst Movement
Lt 0 stn K 0m|nchne.
- johnLy|y| l 551- l 0I
Thcpr|nc|p|coIMajon-I|nt |s |ncommtcdd|rcct|y|ntothcmodcm b|dd|ng
stmctum. It|smcogn|tcd|npract|ccthatovcra||thcpartncrsh|pthatho|dsthc
mostspadcsh anadvantagc that shou|d b cmp|oycd as qu|ck|y as poss|b|c.
M|norsu|tsam g|vcn|cssva|uc |nthcschcmcoIth|ngs, anatt|tudcrc|atcdto
thcscor|ngsystcm,notd|rcct|ytothcpmbab|||t|csa|onc. Thcmodcmpr|nc|p|c
|sdcscr|bdth|sway|nLU |ng|thc l91c|ass|cbyA|bcnMorchcadrcv|scd
|nl 990byA|anTmottandFh||||pA|dcrI.
CmmI 4 l U mSysm IojmaoJ Cosu [ 237 )
The pri mary objective is to fi nd an ei ght-ard or beter maj or-sui t fit; but withi n
that framework, it i s more i mportant t o show t he general strength of the hand
than to show the location of the strength or the di stribution of the hand.
Wccan|ntcmrcttb|sadv|ccas.bav|ngIoondamajorht,don'tg|vcawaydcta||cd
|nIormat|on. |dsbavccomctorc0cctbopcsandasp|rat|onsratbcrtbanrca||ty.
S|amsarcb|dongcncra|strcngtb,w|tbtbca|doIKoman Kcycard |ackwoodto
oncovcrtbcqoa||tyoItbctrompso|t. Wb||c|nvcst|gat|ngIoragamc|namajor
so|t,apartncrsb|pmaystomb|c|ntoas|amona4-4ht,wbcrcaswb||c|nvcst|gat|ng
IorJNT, |t|sd|mco|ttostomb|c|ntoam|nor-so|ts|amona4-4ht. Mostdon't
cvcntry. Inwbat Io||ows, wc sba|| |nvcst|gatc, w|tbrcgard to probab|||ty, tbc
conscqocnccsoItbcmodcmsp|napproacbtoascr|csoImndamcnta||ssocs.
Biddable Suits
In car|y days, opcn|ng w|tb Ioor-card majors was tbc dom|nant sty|c |n tbc
OSA. Grcat p|aycrs Ioond mcr|t |n tbat sty|c, anda vcnIcw adbcrcnts totbc
mctbodsoItbcNcapo||tanC|ob,bbHamman|npart|co|ar,st|||do. Tbcma|n
assompt|onswcrc tbata panncnb|pb|dtop|ay |ntbc|rbcsttmmpso|tandto
avo|d|argcpcna|t|cs. Tbos,oncopcncd|nonc'sbcstso|t,cvcn|I|twcrcam|nor
so|t. Inordcrtobcc|ass|hcdas'b|ddab|c',aso|tnccdcdtoqoa||hw|tbrcgardto
|cngtbandstrcngtb. AIoor-cardopcn|ngb|d|naso|trcqo|rcdtbattbcso|tbcat
|castasgodasQ-j-x-x, tbat|s,tbattbcso|tmcttbccxpcctcdmcd|anstrcngtb
Ior tbat|cngtb. A hvc-card so|tcoo|dbcopncdwbcnbcadcdbytbcj ack. To
rcb|dahvc-cardso|t,oncnccdcdtobo|dat|castK-j-x-x-x,aga|n,tbccxpcctcd
mcd|anstmngtboI4HCI Anys|x-cardso|twasdccmcdmb|ddab|c.
Spades or Clubs?
Lxprtsbavcargocdovcrwbctbcrtoopcn|nspadcsorc|obswbcnbtbso|tsarc
hvccards|n|cngtb. Nowadays b|dd|ngspadcs |satoppr|or|ty, bot tb|s maybc
as|toat|onwbcrctbcrc|at|vcstmngtbsarcadcc|d|ngIactor. Tmctob|s r|t|sb
br|dgcrots, |ntbc Z07 brmodabw|I|na|,Z|aopcncd 1+ ontbcIo||ow|ng
band.
A K 9 6 2 A 3 5 + Q 9 6 5 3
so pcrbaps tb|s |snot a dcad |ssoc. pcn|ng w|tb tbc |owcrso|t prov|dcs tbc
partncrsb|p w|tb morc b|dd|ng spacc, tbos Iac|||tat|ng an |nIomat|vc aoct|on.
A|so, |Iopcncrbas a vcn b|g band, a 1+ opcn|ngprov|dcs |cssr|sk oIbc|ng
passcdoottbanstart|ngw|tb t.
I 238 | ne, Pom|Injmoon
Because it is easier for the opponents to overcall I + than to overcall t ,
most agree that opening t has the tactical advantage. It appears to me tbat
tbcside
that holds |cngtb|nspaJcsnccdnotworrygrcat|yaboot|ntcrIcrcncc,as
tbcycancxpccttoootb|Jtbcopponcnts,wbo,tbroogb|ncdcct|vcb|Jd|ng,may
bavcg|vcnawayv|ta| |nIormat|ontbatw|||bc|p|ntbcp|ayoItbcJca|.
Opening Bids
Wbatdo commcntatonmcanwbcntbcystatctbattbcmodcmsty|c |s toopcn
||gbt ' How bas b|dd|ng cbangcd |n tbat rcgard' Ccrta|n|y o|d-t|mcrs wcrc
notsbyon opcn|ngd|str|bot|ona|bands w|tb on|y I 0HCI Cbar|csGorcn |n
CoattUcjm cgnns ( I 9JJlsoggcstcdopcn|ng Iontb|sco||cct|on.
A Q x x x r:A 1 0 x x x < x x + x
TcmodcmKo|coIZ0adv|scsopcn|ngtbcb|dd|ngonbanJstbatconta|ntcn
cardsand I0 HCI |n tbc two |ongcst so|ts. |tbc|ps |IoncoItbc |ong so|ts |s
spadcs. Tb|sdosnothtwc|||ntoconscnat|vcsystcmswboscstroctorc|sJchncd
|ntcrmsoIHCIa|onc,botpcrbapstbc||gbtopcn|ngb|dsoItcnJcr|JcJarc0at
bandstbatconta|nIcwcontro|s. Tbcwcaknotmmp( I I - I 4HC|Iopcn|ngb|d
canb oscdtoavo|dpass|ngw|tbIcatorc|css,0atbands, tbosrcJoc|ngtbcgap
btwccn a pass and an opcn|ng b|d. Tb|s |s tbc twc oIb|d tbat |s j ost|hab|y
catcgor|:cdasa||gbtopcn|ngb|dontbcbas|soI|tsb|gbLTC.
Fi nale: Kit's Ctde C0et
Sommca||jyoudcsc|acyoutand. . . and1 0 motcIMFsgoauay.
- K|tWoo|scycommcnt|ngontbcb|dd|nghomadca|homtbc
Z007OSAScn|orTcamsI|na|s
Ioroorhna|cxamp|c,wctomonccaga|ntor|dgcascn||nc,tbat|ncomparab|c
soorccoIdata. Lcoorsc,|Iyoowatcbcxpcrtbr|dgcontbc|ntcmct|ongcnoogb,
yoow|||hndcv|dcncctobackanyprcj od|cc,soyoobavctov|cwtbcproccd|ngs
w|tb as opcn a m|nd as poss|b|c. Wbatworksonc t|mc, Ia||s anotbcr. a|| tbc
morcrcasontoadopta probab|||st|cpo|ntoIv|cw. K|tWo|scybas |ongbccn
a rcnowncd d|rcctor oItbc 'MastcrSo|vcrs' C|ob' Icatorc |nTmtUc wmU.
Hcstrong|yadvoatcs b|dd|ngdcscr|pt|vc|y, so wbcn tbc Io| |ow|ng dca| camc
opdor|ngtbcZ007matcbtodctcrm|nctbcOSArcprcscntat|vcstotbcwor|d's
cbamp|onsb|ps|nSbangba|,bccoo|dn'tbc|pbotcxprcss b|scxaccrbat|on.
CmpmI4 l m ogSysms Iojm aooaMCosu | 239 )
8emow
Board 4 4 K Q 3
Both Vul < 5
0 J 9 8
QJ 7 6 4 3
8s Wnmg
1 0 9 8 6 5
D
7 2
< K Q 9 < A 6 3
0 K Q 4 3 0 A 1 0 7 6 5
2 + A K 8
mIr
+ AJ 4
< J 1 0 8 7 4 2
0 2
1 0 9 5
8os 8mow Wnmg mIr
pass pass 1 NT pass
2<* pass 2+ pass
30 pass 40 pass
50 all pass
Other Rom
West Nom ost Wm
pss pass 1 0 pass
1 + 2+ pass 3+
30 al l pass
Tbc act|ons oI A|an 5ontag and Kogcr batcs, Frcc|s|on|sts, appcar to b so
b||nd|ng|yobv|oosasnottorcqo|rccommcnt. Tbcwatchcr'sm|nddr|Itsbackto
thoogbtsoIIod,dr|nk,andscx,notncccssar||y|ntbatordcr. Intbcothcrrom,
howcvcr,avo|ncrab|cgamc|sm|sscd.
Anarcb|stsm|gbt approvc oIwhat tbcy scc as an attcmpt by Lst |n tbc
otbcrromtosw|ngsomcIMFsb|swayondcrthccxtmord|nanc|rcomstanccs
oIbc|ngdown JIMFsw|thbopcsIad|ng. thcnwoo|d ma|nta|n that tn|ng
to ana|ytc Last's act|ons |s mt||c -maybc |t was a scn|or's momcnt. It |snot
sorpr|s|ng, tbcn, tbat somc por|sts rcjcct stat|st|cs as bc|ng ta|ntcd by statc-oI-
tbc-match mcnta||ty and arc Iorcvcr wcddcd to thc |dca tbat thc rcso|ts arc
random|y attr|botab|c to |ock. Tbcsc arc thc F|aton|sts wbosc |dca| wor|d
rcma|ns ontoocbcdbycxpcr|cncc.
l 240 I nc,PommmaMIojmm
orp
rcIcrcncc |stocons|dcrthccv|dcnccasthcpr|mar soorcc. DownJ
|MIsw|thtw
cnty-c|
g
htboardsycttobcp|aycd|snotahopc|csss|toat|onon|css
vo
o tb|nk|tso. Whathasbccn|ostovcrscvcra|boardscannotbcrcga|ncdon
on
c. Last'sact|onsdcmonstrarctbaton||atcra|act|onsarcnotopt|ma|,andthat
p|ay|ngaga|nstthcoddsmostohcn|cadstoamrtbcrdcc||nc. M|stakcsarcmadc,
and d|sastcrsocor, wbcn cmot|ons ootwc|gbcommonscnsc and probab|||ty.
Tbcscarcnotprcd|ctab|c. Tb|sdca||scv|dcncctbat,asWo|scynotcs,dcc|s|ons
w||| osoa||y tomootbcttcr |Itbcy arcbascdonanaccoratcdcscr|pt|onoItbc
partncrsb|p'srcsoorccs. It |s somr|s|ng bowmany mt|ona| commcntatondon't
drawtbcobv|oosconc|os|onandadopttb|sv|cw3 gospc|.
Nottc|||ngmorctban|sncccssan|sanotbcrmattcra|togctbcr. Ib||osopbcn
maybavctroob|cdchn|ngthcd|hcmncc,botp||t|c|ansmakcancasyd|st|nct|on
cvcnday.
A Fi nal Thought
As I hn|sbcd rcad|ng tbroogb tbc hna| vcn|onoItb|s bok | npagc proIs, |
rca||tcd thatmocboImyth|nk|ngontbcscsobjcctsbasadvanccds|ncc Ibcgan
wr|t|ngtbcb k. It|spcrbapsnotcvcntbcsamcb k I woo|d wr|tc |II wcrc
tobg|n toay. Howcvcr, wcbavctocot |tohatsomc stagc, tbcngctonw|tb
crcat|ngncwstuh. Kcadcrs|ntcrcstcd|ntbcmrtbcrdcvc|opmcntoItbcsc|dcas
can Io||ow my b|og on W .br|dgcb|ogg|ng.com, and can a|so down|oad hcc
sopp|cmcnta|art|c|cshomW .cb ksbr|dgc.com.
Cmpm I4 l U ogSysm IojmaMCosu ( 241 |
Master Poi nt Press on the I nternet
uww.mtcmo|ntmcss. com
orma|ns|tc,w|tb|nIormat|onabootoorbooksandsoItwarc,
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ors|tcIorbr|dgctcacbcrsandstodcnts-Irccdown|oadab|c
sopport matcr|a| Ior oor books, bc|pm| art|c|cs, Ioroms anJ
morc.
uuu. Hgch|ogng.com
Kcadandcommcntonrcgo|aran|c|cshom M||aotborsand
otbcrbr|dgcnotab|cs.
uuw. chookbc. com
|orcbascdown|oadab|cc|cctron|cvcn|onsoIM||booksand
soItwarc.
ADVANCED
Can $22. 95 I US $1 9. 95
TAKE THE GuEsswoRK Our OF BRIDGE
Bridrc, unl i ke ches , i a game of incomplete information. We bid With thirteen card in
view, and play each deal seeing only twenty-ix: the po. itions of rhe ret we mu t dedu e
from the au tion an l fom the cards played. Bridge pi, yers deal in l i kelihoods, and only
rard i n certainties, therefore ore knowledge < f the I, ws of prbabi l iry is a riri al weapn
in a ucces. ful player' arsen, 1.
In this bok, u ing a semi-fictional narrative appmach, the author develop the
ideas (but nor the equation. ! ) that un,Ierlie basic probabil ity and its modern descendam,
inform, tion theory, anti shows how both field. relate to bridge. In fact, they haw enormous
pra tic, 1 application ro the game. Among the topi s discus ed:
The idea of visualizing 'sides', the complete combined holdings of both dd nders,
and nor just the splits in individual suits
How a known split in one suit can affect the oJds in another
Empirical rules to hdp make deu. i n ba. cd on incomplete information or in a
situation ro complex to analyze accurately
How a pioi probabilirie. (the ones with which we are all fami l iar) change with
each card played
How , n i mbalance l f \'acant pia es in the defenders' hand affects the odds - and
when to change y )Ur I me of play as a result
The 'Mont Hall Problem' and its bridge cousin, Re tricted hoi e
H P distribution - what partner's hidding tells you ;but where his high cards are
J nf,)rmation verw, frequenc: the trade-off in dsing conv ntion.
Losmg Tri k ount - doe it work, and i f o, why!
Probabilit, sr, tisric. and the Lw of Tmal Tricks - ho far can you rely on the lW?
o t ,. rsu gain: i nt(lrmation theory as appl ied t bidding s stems
L ing sraristic w help Y')ll chose a bidding system that work for you
RO ERT F. cKINN live in Vto, Canad. Hi bi witing inlu a b o
mathematical isin bridg, vario mzin arti and t bo s of bri fictin, inluding
t remrkab Smura Brie
-
s
MASTER POI NT PRESS
978- 1 -897 1 06- 53-2
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