PROJECTION OF DEMAND

I.

Arithmetic Geometric Curve

In arithmetic geometric, the value of r which is the average rate of

increase/decrease in demand of a particular product is given by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year

Demand

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
TOTAL

1051039
1623854
1264139
2212636
2059481
1524000
9735149

Sample computations:

% increase or
decrease
0.00
54.50
-22.15
75.03
-6.92
-26.00
74.46

0.148912822
FOR THE PROJECTED VALUES

year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yi +1
1,524,000
1,750,943
2,011,681
2,311,246
2,655,420
3,050,846

1+r
1.148912822
1.148912822
1.148912822
1.148912822
1.148912822
1.148912822
1.148912822

Yc
1,524,000
1750943.14
2011681.024
2311246.122
2655420.303
3050846.434
3505156.585

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC

Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
1750943.14
2011681.024
2311246.122
2655420.303
3050846.434
3505156.585

2547548.935
2547548.935
2547548.935
2547548.935
2547548.935
2547548.935

(Yc-)
-796605.7944
-535867.9107
-236302.8129
107871.3688
503297.499
957607.6502

(Yc-)^2
6.34581E+11
2.87154E+11
55839019403
11636232200
2.53308E+11
9.17012E+11

To compute for Standard Deviation:

II.

599934.8916

ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

In arithmetic straight, the value of a can be computed as:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Y1 + i

94,592
94,592
94,592
94,592
94,592
94,592

1,524,000
1,618,592
1,713,184
1,807,777
1,902,369
1,996,961

Yc
1524000
1,618,592
1,713,184
1,807,777
1,902,369
1,996,961
2,091,553

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT

Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
1,618,592
1,713,184
1,807,777
1,902,369
1,996,961
2,091,553

1855072.7
1855072.7
1855072.7
1855072.7
1855072.7
1855072.7

To compute for Standard Deviation:

161546.936

Yc-
-236480.5
-141888.3
-47296.1
47296.1
141888.3
236480.5

(Yc-)^2
55923026880
20132289677
2236921075
2236921075
20132289677
55923026880

III.

STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE

The projected value (YC) is computed as:

YC = A + Bx + Cx2
year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

A
374633.2
374633.2
374633.2
374633.2
374633.2
374633.2

B
721410.2286
721410.2286
721410.2286
721410.2286
721410.2286
721410.2286

Demand
1051039
1623854
1264139
2212636
2059481
1524000
x
7
8
9
10
11
12

X
1
2
3
4
5
6

C
-84200.71429
-84200.71429
-84200.71429
-84200.71429
-84200.71429
-84200.71429

x2
49
64
81
100
121
144

Yc
1298669.8
757069.3142
47067.39991
-831335.943
-1878140.714
-3093346.915

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL PARABOLIC

year
2010

Yc
1298669.8

2011

757069.3142

2012

47067.39991

2013

-831335.943

2014

-1878140.714

2015

-3093346.915

Yc-
(Yc- )^2
- 1915339
3.66852E+12
616669.5097
- 1373739
1.88716E+12
616669.5097
- 663736.9
4.40547E+11
616669.5097
- -214666
46081677606
616669.5097
1.59131E+12
616669.5097 1261471
6.13393E+12
616669.5097 2476677

1514791.072

IV.

STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC CURVE

For statistical geometric curve, values of of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

log YC = log a + log x * log b

Year
Demand
x
2004
1051039
2005
1623854
2006
1264139
2007
2212636
2008
2059481
2009
1524000
TOTAL 9,735,149

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

x2
1
2
3
4
5
6
21

log x
1
4
9
16
25
36
91

0
0.602059991
0.954242509
1.204119983
1.397940009
1.556302501
5.714664993

log y
6.021618831
6.210546979
6.10179483
6.344909974
6.31375779
6.182984967
37.17561337

xlogy
6.021618831
12.42109396
18.30538449
25.3796399
31.56878895
37.0979098
130.7944359

log a
x
Logx
log b
log Yc
Yc
6.059977737
7
0.84509804 0.038845093 6.092805649 1238242.336
6.059977737
8 0.903089987 0.038845093 6.095058351 1244681.834
6.059977737
9 0.954242509 0.038845093 6.097045376 1250389.666
6.059977737
10
1 0.038845093
6.09882283 1255517.671
6.059977737
11 1.041392685 0.038845093 6.100430732
1260174.63
6.059977737
12 1.079181246 0.038845093 6.101898632 1264441.183

Sample computation:

log YC = 6.059977737+ (log 7)*

YC = 1238242.336

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
1238242.336
1244681.834
1250389.666
1255517.671
1260174.63
1264441.183

1252241.22
1252241.22
1252241.22
1252241.22
1252241.22
1252241.22

Yc-
-13998.88421
-7559.385953
-1851.554366
3276.450849
7933.410582
12199.9631

(Yc- )^2
195968759.1
57144315.98
3428253.571
10735130.16
62939003.46
148839099.6

To compute for Standard Deviation:

8935.458969

V.

STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

For statistical straight line, values of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
TOTAL

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Demand
1051039
1623854
1264139
2212636
2059481
1524000
9,735,149

a
1160506.533
1160506.533
1160506.533
1160506.533
1160506.533
1160506.533

Sample computation:

x
1
2
3
4
5
6
21

x2
1
4
9
16
25
36
91

xy
1051039
3247708
3792417
8850544
10297405
9144000
36383113

b
132005.2286
132005.2286
132005.2286
132005.2286
132005.2286
132005.2286

x
7
8
9
10
11
12

Yc
2084543.133
2216548.362
2348553.59
2480558.819
2612564.048
2744569.276

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL STRAIGHT

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
2084543.133
2216548.362
2348553.59
2480558.819
2612564.048
2744569.276

2414556.205
2414556.205
2414556.205
2414556.205
2414556.205
2414556.205

Yc-
-330013.0714
-198007.8429
-66002.61429
66002.61429
198007.8429
330013.0714

(Yc- )^2
1.08909E+11
39207105833
4356345093
4356345093
39207105833
1.08909E+11

To compute for Standard Deviation:

225441.8463

PROJECTION OF SUPPLY

I.

Arithmetic Geometric Curve

In arithmetic geometric, the value of r which is the average rate of

increase/decrease in demand of a particular product is given by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
TOTAL

Sample computations:

0.138407872

Supply
992353
764541
1229219
2138652
1875456
1307268

% increase or
decrease
0.00
-22.96
60.78
73.98
-12.31
-30.30
69.20

FOR THE PROJECTED VALUES

year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yi +1
1,307,268
1,488,204
1,694,183
1,928,672
2,195,615
2,499,505

1+r
1.138407872
1.138407872
1.138407872
1.138407872
1.138407872
1.138407872
1.138407872

Yc
1,307,268
1488204.182
1694183.357
1928671.67
2195615.012
2499505.415
2845456.641

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC

Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
1488204.182
1694183.357
1928671.67
2195615.012
2499505.415
2845456.641

2108606.046
2108606.046
2108606.046
2108606.046
2108606.046
2108606.046

(Yc-)
-620401.8638
-414422.6895
-179934.3759
87008.96626
390899.3684
736850.5945

(Yc-)^2
3.84898E+11
1.71746E+11
32376379622
7570560210
1.52802E+11
5.42949E+11

To compute for Standard Deviation:

464101.7656

II.

ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

In arithmetic straight, the value of a can be computed as:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Y1 + i

62,983
62,983
62,983
62,983
62,983
62,983

1,307,268
1,370,251
1,433,234
1,496,217
1,559,200
1,622,183

Yc
1307268
1,370,251
1,433,234
1,496,217
1,559,200
1,622,183
1,685,166

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT

Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
1,370,251
1,433,234
1,496,217
1,559,200
1,622,183
1,685,166

1527708.5
1527708.5
1527708.5
1527708.5
1527708.5
1527708.5

To compute for Standard Deviation:

107563.95

Yc-
-157457.5
-94474.5
-31491.5
31491.5
94474.5
157457.5

(Yc-)^2
24792864306
8925431150
991714572.3
991714572.3
8925431150
24792864306

III.

STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE

The projected value (YC) is computed as:

YC = A + Bx + Cx2

year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

A
34010.2
34010.2
34010.2
34010.2
34010.2
34010.2

B
742864.9429
742864.9429
742864.9429
742864.9429
742864.9429
742864.9429

Supply
992353
764541
1229219
2138652
1875456
1307268

X
7
8
9
10
11
12

X
1
2
3
4
5
6

C
-82381.71429
-82381.71429
-82381.71429
-82381.71429
-82381.71429
-82381.71429

x2
49
64
81
100
121
144

Yc
1197360.8
704500.0286
46875.82861
-775511.8
-1762662.857
-2914577.343

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL PARABOLIC

year
2010

Yc
1197360.8

2011

704500.0286

2012

46875.82861

2013

-775511.8

2014

-1762662.857

2015

-2914577.343

Yc-
(Yc- )^2
- 1781363
3.17326E+12
584002.5571
- 1288503
1.66024E+12
584002.5571
- 630878.4
3.98008E+11
584002.5571
- -191509
36675790103
584002.5571
1.38924E+12
584002.5571 1178660
5.43158E+12
584002.5571 2330575

IV.

1419448.049

STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC CURVE

For statistical geometric curve, values of of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

log YC = log a + xlog b

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
TOTAL

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Supply
992353
764541
1229219
2138652
1875456
1307268
8,307,489

log a
5.914072507
5.914072507
5.914072507
5.914072507
5.914072507
5.914072507

x
1
2
3
4
5
6
21

x
7
8
9
10
11
12

x2
1
4
9
16
25
36
91

Logx
0.84509804
0.903089987
0.954242509
1
1.041392685
1.079181246

log x
0
0.301029996
0.477121255
0.602059991
0.698970004
0.77815125
2.857332496

log y
5.996666187
5.88340078
6.089629265
6.330140122
6.27310688
6.11636463
36.68930786

xlogy
5.996666187
11.76680156
18.26888779
25.32056049
31.3655344
36.69818778
129.4166382

log b
0.057374896
0.057374896
0.057374896
0.057374896
0.057374896
0.057374896

log Yc
5.962559919
5.965887201
5.968822072
5.971447403
5.973822304
5.975990419

Yc
917402.4997
924458.0341
930726.4835
936369.8103
941504.2918
946216.2863

Sample computation:

log YC = 5.914072507+ (log7)* 0.057374896

YC = 917402.4997

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
917402.4997
924458.0341
930726.4835
936369.8103
941504.2918
946216.2863

932779.5676
932779.5676
932779.5676
932779.5676
932779.5676
932779.5676

Yc-
-15377.0679
-8321.533477
-2053.084137
3590.24266
8724.724211
13436.71864

To compute for Standard Deviation:

V.

9827.456043

STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

For statistical straight line, values of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

(Yc- )^2
236454217.1
69247919.4
4215154.474
12889842.36
76120812.55
180545407.8

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
TOTAL

Supply Unsaturated
992353
764541
1229219
2138652
1875456
1307268
8,307,489

x
1
2
3
4
5
6
21

x2
1
4
9
16
25
36
91

xy
992353
1529082
3687657
8554608
9377280
7843608
31984588

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

a
802906.2
802906.2
802906.2
802906.2
802906.2
802906.2

b
166192.9429
166192.9429
166192.9429
166192.9429
166192.9429
166192.9429

x
7
8
9
10
11
12

Yc
1966256.8
2132449.743
2298642.686
2464835.629
2631028.571
2797221.514

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL STRAIGHT

YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Yc
1966256.8
2132449.743
2298642.686
2464835.629
2631028.571
2797221.514

2381739.157
2381739.157
2381739.157
2381739.157
2381739.157
2381739.157

Yc-
-415482.3571
-249289.4143
-83096.47143
83096.47143
249289.4143
415482.3571

To compute for Standard Deviation:

283828.4839

(Yc- )^2
1.72626E+11
62145212075
6905023564
6905023564
62145212075
1.72626E+11