Sunil Assignment 8

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{\phpg\posx2327\pvpg\posy2715\absw2277\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 A
sia-Pacific Development Journal \par
}
{\phpg\posx7577\pvpg\posy2715\absw2002\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 V
ol. 8, No. 2, December 2001 \par
}
{\phpg\posx2777\pvpg\posy3744\absw6845\absh412 \b \f10 \fs19 \cf0 \b \f10 \fs19
\cf0 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION
\par}{\phpg\posx2777\pvpg\posy3744\absw6845\absh412 \sl-250 \b \f10 \fs19 \cf0 \
fi880 AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN \par
}
{\phpg\posx4387\pvpg\posy4645\absw3112\absh396 \i \f10 \fs18 \cf0 \fi970 \i \f10
\fs18 \cf0 Anjum Aqeel
\par}{\phpg\posx4387\pvpg\posy4645\absw3112\absh396 \sl-240 \i \f10 \fs18 \cf0 {
\i0 and} Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt{\i0 * }\par
}
{\phpg\posx2712\pvpg\posy5713\absw6462\absh3084 \b\i \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \b\i \f20 \
fs18 \cf0 This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consump
tion
\par}{\phpg\posx2712\pvpg\posy5713\absw6462\absh3084 \sl-250 \b\i \f20 \fs18 \cf
0 and economic growth and energy consumption and employment in Pakistan.
0 By applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiao's version of Grang
er
0 causality, the results infer that economic growth causes total
energy
0 consumption.
Economic growth also leads to growth in petrol
eum
0 consumption, while on the other hand, neither economic growth nor ga
s
0 consumption affect each other. However, in the power sector it has
been
0 found that electricity consumption leads to economic growth wi
thout
0 feedback. The implications of the study are that energy conservation policy
0 regarding petroleum consumption would not lead to any side-effects
on
0 economic growth in Pakistan. However, an energy growth policy in th
e
0 case of gas and electricity consumption should be adopted in such a
way
0 that it stimulates growth in the economy and thus expands employment
0 opportunities. \par
}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \fi740 \f20 \fs1
8 \cf0 The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth i
s now
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 wel
l established in the literature, yet the direction of causation of th
is relationship
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 rem
ains controversial. That is, whether economic growth leads to energy consumpti
on
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 or
that energy consumption is the engine of economic growth.
The direction of
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cau
sality has significant policy implications. Empirically it has been tried to f
ind the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 dir
ection of causality between energy consumption and economic activities
for the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 dev
eloping as well as for the developed countries employing the Granger
or Sims
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 tec
hniques.
However, results are mixed.
The seminal paper by
Kraft and Kraft
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 (19
78), supported the unidirectional causality from GNP growth to energy consumptio
n
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 in
the case of the United States of America for the period 1947-1974.
Erol, and Yu,
87), tested data for six industrialized countries, and found no signif
icant causal
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 rel
ationship between energy consumption and GDP growth and, energy
and
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9783\absw7258\absh2861 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 emp
loyment. Yu, et. al. (1988), found no relationship between energy and GNP, and
\par
}
{\phpg\posx2402\pvpg\posy13475\absw91\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 *
\par
}
{\phpg\posx2767\pvpg\posy13475\absw5623\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0
Economists at Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Pakistan
. \par
}
{\phpg\posx9272\pvpg\posy14235\absw308\absh198 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 1
01 \par
}
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}}\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy2700\absw2277\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14
\cf0 Asia-Pacific Development Journal \par
}
}
between energy and employment in the case of the United States. When
they used
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 the
Granger method, however, they detected that energy consumption
negatively
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 eff
ected employment by employing Sim's techniques.
Yu, and Chai,
(1985), also
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 fou
nd causality from energy to GDP in the Philippines, but this causalit
y is reversed
the case of the Republic of Korea. A bi-directional causality betwee
n growth of
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ene
rgy consumption and GNP growth was observed in Taiwan Province of Chi
na by
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 Hwo
ng, et. al. (1991), while Cheng, and Lai, (1997), found causality from econo
mic
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 gro
wth to energy consumption and from energy consumption to employment without
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 fee
dback in Taiwan Province of China. A similar study would be benefici
al in the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cas
e of Pakistan to design an economic policy framework for the energy
and other
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 sec
tors.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \fi
740 Like other developing countries Pakistan is also an energy intensive growing
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 eco
nomy, and as in most other non-oil producing countries its energy nee
ds are met
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 by
large quantities of imports. The ACGR (annual consumption growth rate
) of net
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 con
sumption of total energy is 6.4 per cent. The share of oil, gas an
d electricity is
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 48
per cent, 30 per cent (of which more than half is used for electri
city) and 15 per
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cen
t respectively. The share of imported oil was 92 per cent of net c
onsumption of
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 oil
in 1995-1996, which is about 44 per cent of total net consumption of energy in
the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cou
ntry.
Thus to meet its growing needs of energy, Pakistan f
aces both energy
straints from the supply side and demand management policies. (Riaz,
1984, and
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 Chi
sti and Mahmood, 1980). However, for any such policy making it is e
ssential to
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 det
ermine the causal relationship between energy consumption and general economic
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 act
ivities. The purpose of this study is to determine such a relationsh
ip for Pakistan.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 Thi
s is accomplished by examining Granger Causality between growth
in energy
sumption and GDP growth and between growth in energy consumpti
on and
loyment growth by employing cointegration technique and Hsiao's
version of
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 Gra
nger Causality. To further enrich our study we have also analyzed th
e sectoral
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 rel
ationship viz, petroleum, gas and electricity consumption growth with that of GD
P
wth.
Since energy consumed consists of both domestic and imp
orted sources,
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 it
would be useful to outline appropriate policies regarding each component.
740 The paper is organized as follows. Section I discusses the method
ology and
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 mod
el. Empirical findings are presented in section II. The final secti
on contains
cluding remarks.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-237 \par\f20 \fs18 \cf0
\fi2690 {\b \fs17 I.}{\b \fs17
METHODOLOGY }
\fi740 Traditionally to test for the causal relationship between two v
ariables, the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 sta
ndard Granger (1969) test has been employed in the relevant literature
. This test
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 sta
tes that, if past values of a variable Y significantly contribute to forecast th
e value
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-315 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 of
another variable X{\dn006 \fs15 t+1} then Y is said to Granger cause X and vice
versa. The test is
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7269\absh9067 \sl-185 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 bas

ed on the following regressions. \par
}
02 \par
}
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05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
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05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
05145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140
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}
}
{\phpg\posx3052\pvpg\posy3608\absw217\absh221 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 Y{
\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx3302\pvpg\posy3543\absw573\absh299 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 ={
\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 \f40 \fs15 0} + \par
}
{\phpg\posx3892\pvpg\posy3399\absw308\absh538 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 \fi60 \f20 \fs15 \
cf0 M
\par}{\phpg\posx3892\pvpg\posy3399\absw308\absh538 \sl-357 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 {\f40
\fs35 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }} }
\par}{\phpg\posx3892\pvpg\posy3399\absw308\absh538 \sl-152 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 k=1 \
par
}
cf0 M
\fs35 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }} }
\par}{\phpg\posx3867\pvpg\posy4219\absw308\absh538 \sl-152 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 k=1 \
par
}
{\phpg\posx4212\pvpg\posy3543\absw875\absh280 \f40 \fs17 \cf0 \f40 \fs17 \cf0 {\
field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}{\dn006 \f20 \fs15 k}{\f20 Y}{\f20 \fs
15 t-k}{\f20 + }\par
}
cf0 N
\par}{\phpg\posx5072\pvpg\posy3414\absw240\absh554 \sl-222 \par\f20 \fs15 \cf0 {
\f50 l}=1 \par
}
field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }} \par
}
cf0 N
\par}{\phpg\posx5017\pvpg\posy4224\absw240\absh554 \sl-222 \par\f20 \fs15 \cf0 {
\f50 l}=1 \par
}
field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }} \par
}
field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}{\f20 X }
\par}{\phpg\posx5362\pvpg\posy3543\absw645\absh289 \sl-152 \f40 \fs17 \cf0 \fi13
0 {\f50 \fs15 l}{\f20 \fs15
t-1 }\par
}
{\phpg\posx5963\pvpg\posy3608\absw417\absh228 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 +
U{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx8792\pvpg\posy3608\absw775\absh161 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 ------- 1 \par
}
{\phpg\posx3052\pvpg\posy4423\absw234\absh221 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 X{
\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx3302\pvpg\posy4358\absw587\absh299 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 ={
\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 103 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 \f40 \fs15 0} + \pa
r
}
field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 103 \\f Symbol }}{\dn006 \f20 \fs15 k}{\f20 X}{\f20 \f
s15 t-k}{\f20 + }\par
}

field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 100 \\f Symbol }}{\f20 Y }
5 {\f50 \fs15 l}{\f20 \fs15
t-1 }\par
}
V{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx8792\pvpg\posy4423\absw775\absh161 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 ------- 2 \par
}
Where Y{\dn006 \fs15 t} and X{\fs15 t} are the variables to be tested, and U{\
fs15 t} and V{\fs15 t} are mutually uncorrelated
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-185 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 whi
te noise errors, and t denotes the time period and{\i 'k'} an{\i
'}{\f50 l}{\i '} are number of lags.
The null hypothesis is{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}}{\d
n006 \fs15 1} ={\f40
{\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 100 \\f Symbol }}}{\fs15 i}
= 0 for all i's versus the alternative hypothesis that
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 {\f
40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}}i{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL
185 \\f Symbol }}} 0 and{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 100 \\f Symbol }}}i{\f
40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 185 \\f Symbol }}} 0 for at least some i's. If t
he coefficient{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 \fs15 i
}'s are statistically significant
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 but
{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 100 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 \fs15 i}'s are no
t, then X causes Y and vice versa. But if both{\f40 {\field{\*\fldi
nst SYMBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}}{\fs15 i} and{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 100
\\f Symbol }}}{\fs15 i} are significant
n causality runs both ways.
740 Recent developments in the time series analysis have suggest
ed some
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 imp
rovements in the standard Granger test. The first step is to check for the sta
tionarity
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 of
the original variables and then test cointegration between the
m.
According to
nger (1986), the test is valid if the variables are not cointegrated.
Second, the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 res
ults of Granger causality are very sensitive to the selection of lag
length. If the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 cho
sen lag length is less than the true lag length, the omission of re
levant lags can
se bias. If the chosen lag length is more, the irrelevant lags in the equation
cause
estimates to be inefficient. To deal with this problem Hsiao (1981) has devel
oped
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 a s
ystematic autoregressive method for choosing optimal lag length for each variabl
e
an equation. This method combines Granger causality and Akaike's Final Predict
ion
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 Err
or (FPE), defined as the (asymptotic) mean square prediction error{\dn006 \fs15
1}.
740 Both the cointegration technique and Hsiao's version of Granger cau
sality
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 tes
ts, were employed to determine the causal relationship between GDP and
energy,
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 GDP
and various components of energy (oil, gas and electricity) consumpti
on, and
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 fin
ally between employment and energy consumption.
The basic mode
l relates
nomic growth (or employment) to energy consumption. The model is:
\fi2920 log Y = f(log X{\dn006 \fs15 i})
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-355 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 Whe
re Y is GDP (or employment) and X is energy consumption. All the variables are
per capita log form. The relevant data were available for the perio
d 1955-1956 to
5-1996 from Pakistan Economic Surveys and Energy Yearbooks. The procedures
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy5068\absw7257\absh6317 \sl-250 \f20 \fs17 \cf0 to
estimate the model are discussed below. \par
}
\par
}
Previous studies had tried various different lag lengths in their model and they
got conflicting results, \par
}
hence Hasio's methodology was preferred. See Cheng and Lai (1997). \par
}
03 \par
}
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0101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101ffc0
001108034a025303012200021101031101ffc4001f00000105010101010101000000000000000001
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31410613516107227114328191a1082342b1c11552d1f02433627282090a161718191a2526272829
2a3435363738393a434445464748494a535455565758595a636465666768696a737475767778797a
0101010101010101010000000000000102030405060708090a0bffc400b511000201020404030407
05040400010277000102031104052131061241510761711322328108144291a1b1c109233352f015
6272d10a162434e125f11718191a262728292a35363738393a434445464748494a53545556575859
5a636465666768696a737475767778797a82838485868788898a92939495969798999aa2a3a4a5a6
a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a2bf007fe0a432fed1d65ff000557ff0082487c34f8
29fb74fc40f80ff0ff00f6bbf881e21d3fe3f7eceb696375e23d1fe26f813fe09f31ea3fb65dbea7
f0f443e0cb2ff8565ff0b37edbaafecf5fb4eebba7fc70f08eb1f137c09e37f827a2dd7c2df8c3f0
ff00e1e7c42d12c803f7fa8a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a
28a00fffd9
}
}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7256\absh1974 \b\i \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \b\i \f20 \
fs18 \cf0 Cointegration
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7256\absh1974 \sl-220 \par\b\i \f20 \fs18
\cf0 \fi740 {\b0\i0 The}{\b0\i0 concept}{\b0\i0 of}{\b0\i0 cointegration}
{\b0\i0 among}{\b0\i0 the}{\b0\i0 variables}{\b0\i0 can}{\b0\i0 be}{\b
0\i0 defined}{\b0\i0 in}{\b0\i0 simple }
0 {\b0\i0 words}{\b0\i0 as}{\b0\i0 follows.}{\b0\i0
Two}{\b0\i0 or}{\b0
\i0 more}{\b0\i0 variables}{\b0\i0 are}{\b0\i0 said}{\b0\i0 to}{\b0\i0
be}{\b0\i0 cointegrated}{\b0\i0 if}{\b0\i0 they}{\b0\i0 share }
0 {\b0\i0 common}{\b0\i0 trends}{\b0\i0 i.e.}{\b0\i0 they}{\b0\i0 have}{
\b0\i0 long}{\b0\i0 run}{\b0\i0 equilibrium}{\b0\i0 relationships.}{\b0\
i0
The}{\b0\i0 technique}{\b0\i0 of }
0 {\b0\i0 cointegration}{\b0\i0 involves}{\b0\i0 three}{\b0\i0 steps.}{\b0\i0
The}{\b0\i0 first}{\b0\i0 step}{\b0\i0 requires}{\b0\i0 a}{\b0\i0 deter
mination}{\b0\i0 of}{\b0\i0 the}{\b0\i0 order }
0 {\b0\i0 of}{\b0\i0 integration}{\b0\i0 of}{\b0\i0 the}{\b0\i0 variables}{\
b0\i0 of}{\b0\i0 interest.}{\b0\i0
We}{\b0\i0 have}{\b0\i0 for}{\b0\i0 t
his}{\b0\i0 purpose}{\b0\i0 used}{\b0\i0 two}{\b0\i0 popular }
0 {\b0\i0 tests:}{\b0\i0
namely}{\b0\i0 Dickey}{\b0\i0 -}{\b0\i0 Fuller
}{\b0\i0 (DF)}{\b0\i0 and}{\b0\i0 Augmented}{\b0\i0 Dickey}{\b0\i0 Ful
ler}{\b0\i0 (ADF)}{\b0\i0 test}{\b0\i0 based }
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7256\absh1974 \sl-157 \par\b\i \f20 \fs18
\cf0 {\b0\i0 on}{\b0\i0 H}{\b0\i0\dn006 \fs15 0}{\b0\i0 :X}{\b0\i0 \fs15 t}{
\b0\i0 is}{\b0\i0 not}{\b0\i0 I(0)}{\b0\i0 which}{\b0\i0 are}{\b0\i0 given
}{\b0\i0 by}{\b0\i0 the}{\b0\i0 following}{\b0\i0 equations. }\par
}
{\phpg\posx4582\pvpg\posy5843\absw2259\absh294 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 (
DF){\f40 {\f63 \u8710\'3f}}X{\dn006 \fs15 t} = a + bX{\fs15 t-1} +{\f40 {\f
ield{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 101 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx8732\pvpg\posy5908\absw835\absh161 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ------3 \par
}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy6383\absw7254\absh625 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 W
here X{\dn006 \fs15 t} denotes the variables GDP, total energy consumption, emp
loyment, petroleum,
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy6383\absw7254\absh625 \sl-185 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cons
umption, gas, and electricity consumption. All the variables are real
and in log
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy6383\absw7254\absh625 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 form
.{\f40
{\f63 \u8710\'3f}} is the difference operator, a and b are parameters
to be estimated. \par
}
5 \cf0 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }}{\f20 \fs18

--------}{\f20 \fs18
4 }
885 {\f20 \fs15 i=1 }
0 \fs18 a,}{\f20 \fs18 b,}{\f20 \fs18 and}{\f20 \fs18 c}{\f20 \fs18 are}
{\f20 \fs18 the}{\f20 \fs18 parameters}{\f20 \fs18 to}{\f20 \fs18 be}{\f
20 \fs18 estimated}{\f20 \fs18 and}{\f20 \fs18 where}{\fs18 {\field{\*\f
ldinst SYMBOL 103 \\f Symbol }}}{\f20 \fs18 is}{\f20 \fs18 selected}{\f20 \f
s18 such}{\f20 \fs18 that}{\fs18 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 206 \\f Symbol
}}}{\f20 \fs18 t}{\f20 \fs18 is }\par
}
{\phpg\posx4012\pvpg\posy7353\absw3523\absh417 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 (
ADF){\f40 {\f63 \u8710\'3f}}X{\dn006 \fs15 t} = a + bX{\fs15 t-1} +
c{\f40 {\f63 \u8710\'3f}}X{\dn006 \fs15 t-i} +{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL
101 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
white noise. The tests are based on the null hypothesis (H{\dn006 \fs
15 0}) is: X{\fs15 t} is not I(0), If the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy8198\absw7258\absh1061 \sl-185 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cal
culated DF and ADF statistics are less than their critical values from Fuller's
table,
n the null hypothesis (H{\dn006 \fs15 0}) is rejected and the series are
stationary or integrated or
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy8198\absw7258\absh1061 \sl-185 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ord
er one i.e. I(1).
740 In the second step we estimate cointegration regression using variables havi
ng \par
}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9448\absw2653\absh386 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 t
he same order of integration.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9448\absw2653\absh386 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 meth
od is given as: \par
}
{\phpg\posx4582\pvpg\posy10178\absw217\absh221 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 Y
{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx5172\pvpg\posy9448\absw4387\absh161 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 T
he cointegration equation estimated by the OLS \par
}
= a{\dn006 \fs15 0} + a{\fs15 1} X{\fs15 ti} + Z{\fs15 t }\par
}
}
Where Y{\dn006 \fs15 t} is per capita real GDP and X{\fs15 ti} is the it
h component of energy consumption.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10653\absw7256\absh836 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 For
the employment equation Y{\dn006 \fs15 t} is employment and X{\fs15 t} is tot
al energy consumption.
740 In the third step residuals (Z{\dn006 \fs15 t}) from the cointegration regr
ession are subjected
the stationarity test based on the following equations. \par
}
(DF){\f40 {\f63 \u8710\'3f}}Z{\dn006 \fs15 t} ={\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYM
BOL 97 \\f Symbol }}} +{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}}{\fs15
0} Z{\fs15 t-1} + V{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
}
(ADF){\f40 {\f63 \u8710\'3f}}Z{\dn006 \fs15 t} ={\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SY
MBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}} +{\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}}{\fs1
5 0} Z{\fs15 t-1} + \par
}
\cf0 k
i=1 \par
}
{\phpg\posx6157\pvpg\posy12361\absw293\absh469 \f40 \fs35 \cf0 \f40 \fs35 \cf0 {
\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }} \par
}
\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}{\dn006 \f20 \fs15 1} {\f63 \u8710\'3f
}{\f20 Z}{\f20 \fs15 t-i }\par
}
V{\dn006 \fs15 t }\par
}
}
04 \par
}
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01010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
010101010101010101ffdb0043010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
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001108034a025303012200021101031101ffc4001f00000105010101010101000000000000000001
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2a3435363738393a434445464748494a535455565758595a636465666768696a737475767778797a
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05040400010277000102031104052131061241510761711322328108144291a1b1c109233352f015
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40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
40051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451
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3e23f157867c3dac7fc1327f6dff0001691af788346d1b54f1d78b3c7dff0004dbbcf0af82f4ed53
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de19d77576b3d2eebedfa2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a280
0a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2803fffd9
}
}
Where, Z{\dn006 \fs15 t} is the residual from equation 5. The null hyp
othesis of non-stationarity is
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-185 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 rej
ected if{\f40
{\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}} is negative
and the calculated DF or ADF statistics is less than the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 cri
tical value from Fuller's table. That means there is a long run sta
ble relationship
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 bet
ween the two variables and causality between them is tested by the error correla
tion
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 mod
el. On the other hand, if the null hypothesis of non-stationarity is
rejected and
variables are not cointegrated then the standard Granger causality test is appr
opriate.
{\b\i Hsiao's}{\b\i granger}{\b\i causality }
\fi740 More recently many studies like Thornton and Batten (1985), Hwa
ng et. al.
91) and Chang and Lai (1997) have found Hsiao's Granger Causality test provides
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 mor
e robust results over both arbitrary lag length selection and other systematic m
ethods
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 for
determining lag length.
Hsiao's procedure involves two steps.
The first step
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 fol
lows a series of autoregressive regressions on the dependent variables. In the
first
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7259\absh3658 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 reg
ression, the dependent variable is lagged once. In each succeeding regression,
one
e lag on the dependent variable is added. The M regressions we esti
mated are of
form. \par
}
{\phpg\posx4297\pvpg\posy7843\absw974\absh280 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 d(
Y{\dn006 \fs15 t}) ={\f40 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 97 \\f Symbol }}} + \par
}
\cf0 m
0 \fs36 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }}}{\f40 \fs18 {\field{\*\fldi
nst SYMBOL 98 \\f Symbol }}}{\fs18 d(Y}{\dn006 t-i}{\fs18 )}{\fs18 +}{\f40 \fs
18 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 101 \\f Symbol }}}{\dn006 1t }\par
}
{\phpg\posx5307\pvpg\posy8103\absw260\absh199 \i \f20 \fs15 \cf0 \i \f20 \fs15 \
cf0 i{\i0 \f40 =1 }\par
}
}
Where, the value of i is from 1 to m, the choice of lag length is
based on the sample

\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy8553\absw7256\absh1061 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 siz
e and underlying economic process. It is better to select m as larg
e as possible.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy8553\absw7256\absh1061 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 As
the energy sector has a long gestation period, especially of hydro power generat
ion
Pakistan, we have set maximum m = 10. Then we computed the FPE fo
r each
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy8553\absw7256\absh1061 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 reg
ression in the following way: \par
}
{\phpg\posx4297\pvpg\posy10143\absw822\absh161 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 F
PE(m) = \par
}
+ m + 1
5 T - m - 1 \par
}
{\phpg\posx6086\pvpg\posy10143\absw653\absh161 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 E
SS(m) \par
}
}
\par
}
Where T is sample size and EPE and ESS are the final prediction error and the s
um of
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10733\absw7257\absh1286 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 sq
uared errors respectively.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10733\absw7257\absh1286 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f
i740 The optimal lag length, m*, is the lag length which produces the lowest FPE
.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10733\absw7257\absh1286 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 In
the second step, once m* has been determined, regressions are estima
ted with the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10733\absw7257\absh1286 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 la
gs on the other variable added sequentially in the same manner used
to determine
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10733\absw7257\absh1286 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 m*
. Thus we estimate ten regressions of the form; \par
}
{\phpg\posx5897\pvpg\posy12333\absw110\absh136 \i \f20 \fs15 \cf0 \i \f20 \fs15
\cf0 n \par
}
}
\cf0 j{\i0 =1 }\par
}
\cf0 d(Y{\dn006 \fs15 T}) = \par
}
\cf0 + \par
}
\fs15 \cf0 m*
\par}{\phpg\posx4537\pvpg\posy12328\absw288\absh542 \sl-225 \par\i \f20 \fs15 \c
f0 i{\i0 =1 }\par
}
}
\cf0 d(Y{\fs15 t-i}) + \par
}
\cf0 d(X{\dn006 \fs15 t-j}) + \par
}
}
\cf0 2t \par
}
Where, j ranges from 1 to 10. We then compute FPE for each regression as: \par
}
05 \par
}
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}
}
{\phpg\posx3902\pvpg\posy3563\absw1141\absh161 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 F
PE(m*, n) = \par
}
+ m* + 1
\par}{\phpg\posx5107\pvpg\posy3463\absw991\absh382 \sl-245 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 T - m
* - 1 \par
}
{\phpg\posx6116\pvpg\posy3563\absw972\absh161 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ES
S(m*, n) \par
}
}
\par
}
We choose the optimal lag length for X, n* as the lag length whic
h produces the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 low
est FPE.
740 To test for causality FPE (m*) which excludes the X variable is
compared
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 wit
h FPE m*, n* which contains the X variable in the model. If FPE (
m*) < FPE
(m* n*){\f40 {\f63 \u8658\'3f}} energy (X{\dn006 \fs15 t}) does not Granger
cause GDP (Y{\fs15 t}) on the other hand FPE (m*)
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 >

F(m*n*) X{\dn006 \fs15 t} Granger causes Y. Once the test is performed
with GDP (Y{\fs15 t}) as the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 dep
endent variable a similar test with energy (X{\dn006 \fs15 t}) as the
dependent variable is done.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-185 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 To
test the causality from GDP to energy consumption, all these regressions are rep
eated
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 for
every component of energy consumption with GDP and also for employment energy
sumption.
\fi2420 {\b \fs16 II.}{\b \fs16
EMPIRICAL}{\b \fs16 RESULTS }
\fi740 The results of our estimations are presented step by step and are as fol
lows:
{\b\i Test}{\b\i for}{\b\i unit}{\b\i roots }
\fi740 The degree of integration of each variable involved has been d
etermined in
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 our
analysis, based on equations 3 and 4 for both DF and the ADF
test statistics
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 res
pectively. The results are reported in table 1. In the level form,
both the DF and
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ADF
class of unit root tests are rejected for all the variables except that for emp
loyment.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 How
ever, both the tests reject the null hypothesis of non-stationarity for all the
variables
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 whe
n they are used in the first difference. This shows that, except fo
r employment,
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 all
the series are stationary in the first difference, and integrated of order I(1)
.
{\b\i Test}{\b\i for}{\b\i cointegration }
\fi740 The variables which have been tested for the order of integrat
ion and found
have the same order, are used to estimate cointegration regression. Table 2 re
ports
results of the DF and ADF tests applied to the residuals
of the cointegration
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 equ
ations based on equation 5 and given in equations 6 and 7. The absolute values
of
calculated test statistics for all the residuals are less than its
critical value at the
per cent level.
Neither of the series are cointegrated.
T
herefore the standard

nger test (Granger, 1669) is appropriate.
{\b\i Hsiao's}{\b\i version}{\b\i of}{\b\i granger}{\b\i causality}{\b\
i test }
\fi740 By following the estimations based on equations 8 to 11,
we are able to
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 rea
ch the results of Hsiao's Granger causality test reported in table 3.
The results
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ind
icate that economic growth causes total energy consumption as shown by the total
\par
}
06 \par
}
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}
}
{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 G
DP
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 TENG
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-245 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 PTL
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 GAS
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-245 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 ELEC
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 EMP
GDP
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 TENG
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 PTL
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 GAS
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 ELEC
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy4565\absw459\absh2536 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 EMP
\par
}
{\phpg\posx3162\pvpg\posy6140\absw110\absh1119 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 =
\par}{\phpg\posx3162\pvpg\posy6140\absw110\absh1119 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 =
\par}{\phpg\posx3162\pvpg\posy6140\absw110\absh1119 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 = \p
ar
}
0 \fs14 \cf0 DF
\par}{\phpg\posx3502\pvpg\posy4250\absw1612\absh1830 \sl-157 \par\i \f20 \fs14 \
cf0 \fi910 {\i0 -2.32 }
\par}{\phpg\posx3502\pvpg\posy4250\absw1612\absh1830 \sl-250 \i \f20 \fs14 \cf0
\fi910 {\i0 -2.14 }
\fi910 {\i0 -0.63 }
\fi910 {\i0 -1.82 }
\fi910 {\i0 -1.30 }
\fi870 {\i0 -4.40* }
cf0 {\i0 Gross}{\i0 Domestic}{\i0 Product }\par
}
\cf0 Table 1. Unit root tests
\par}{\phpg\posx4847\pvpg\posy3491\absw2180\absh2212 \sl-227 \par\b \f20 \fs18 \
cf0 \fi180 {\b0\i \fs14 Levels }

\par}{\phpg\posx4847\pvpg\posy3491\absw2180\absh2212 \sl-280 \b \f20 \fs18 \cf0
\fi1050 {\b0\i \fs14 ADF }
cf0 \fi1040 {\b0 \fs14 -2.61 }
\fi1040 {\b0 \fs14 -2.17 }
\fi1040 {\b0 \fs14 -0.43 }
\fi1040 {\b0 \fs14 -1.44 }
\fi1040 {\b0 \fs14 -1.66 }
\fi960 {\b0 \fs14 -4.05** }\par
}
0 \fs14 \cf0 First Difference
\fi100 DF
cf0 {\i0 -5.88* }
{\i0 -5.61* }
{\i0 -6.94* }
{\i0 -4.70* }
{\i0 -4.54* }
\fi165 {\i0 - }\par
}
\fs14 \cf0 ADF
f0 \fi25 {\i0 4.57** }
\i0 -4.14** }
\par}{\phpg\posx8757\pvpg\posy4250\absw503\absh1529 \sl-245 \i \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \
fi40 {\i0 -4.68* }
fi40 {\i0 -4.86* }
fi40 {\i0 -3.81* }
fi205 {\i0 - }\par
}
otal Energy Consumption (in TOE)
\par}{\phpg\posx3502\pvpg\posy6360\absw2421\absh921 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Petr
oleum Consumption (in TOE)
\par}{\phpg\posx3502\pvpg\posy6360\absw2421\absh921 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Gas
Consumption (in TOE)
\par}{\phpg\posx3502\pvpg\posy6360\absw2421\absh921 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Elec
tricity Consumption (in TOE)
\par}{\phpg\posx3502\pvpg\posy6360\absw2421\absh921 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Empl
oyment \par
}
{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy7460\absw2872\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 A
ll the variables are in per capita log form. \par

}
{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy7680\absw175\absh327 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 *
\par}{\phpg\posx2537\pvpg\posy7680\absw175\absh327 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 ** \p
ar
}
{\phpg\posx3162\pvpg\posy7680\absw1592\absh327 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 S
ignificant at 1 per cent
\par}{\phpg\posx3162\pvpg\posy7680\absw1592\absh327 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Sign
ificant at 5 per cent \par
}
{\phpg\posx2542\pvpg\posy9420\absw837\absh795 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 GD
P, TENG
\par}{\phpg\posx2542\pvpg\posy9420\absw837\absh795 \sl-245 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 GDP,
PTL
GAS
ELEC \par
}
\cf0 Table 2. Cointegration results
cf0 \fi2755 {\b0\i \fs14 DF }
cf0 \fi2695 {\b0 \fs14 -3.84 }
\fi2695 {\b0 \fs14 -2.56 }
\fi2695 {\b0 \fs14 -2.77 }
\fi2695 {\b0 \fs14 -3.26 }\par
}
\cf0 ADF
f0 {\i0 -3.17 }
\i0 -2.61 }
\i0 -2.72 }
\i0 -3.06 }\par
}
The critical values for DF and ADF for 1 per cent and 5 per cent are -4.74 and 4.03 respectively. The
\par}{\phpg\posx2542\pvpg\posy10495\absw7029\absh525 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 abs
olute values of the calculated test statistics in the table are less than the cr
itical values which indicates
\par}{\phpg\posx2542\pvpg\posy10495\absw7029\absh525 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 acc
eptance of the null hypothesis of No-Cointegration. \par
}
energy equation, where F(m*) > F(m*, n*). Also, by observing the petroleum eq
uation
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11638\absw7257\absh1736 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 we
see that economic growth leads to petroleum consumption and not vice versa. O
n
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11638\absw7257\absh1736 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 th
e other hand, for the gas sector, the results show neither economic
growth nor gas
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11638\absw7257\absh1736 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 co
nsumption affecting each other.
However, the results reported
for electricity
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11638\absw7257\absh1736 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 co
nsumption and GDP states that electricity consumption leads to economic
growth
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11638\absw7257\absh1736 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 wi
thout feedback. The table also indicates that energy consumption causes employ
ment
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11638\absw7257\absh1736 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 bu
t not conversely as shown in the employment equation. Where F(m*) > F(m*, n*),
e lag of 6 in the employment equation may be indicative of the capi
tal intensity of \par
}
07 \par
}
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0514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451401f8e7fb7
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14514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005145140051451400514514005
1451400514514005145140051451401f8e7fb727fca443f620ff00b32fff00828eff00eaf1ff0082
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14500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145
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145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145007e3
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51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
51450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145001451450014
5145001451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145007fffd9
}
}
\cf0 Table 3. Results of Hsiao's version of the causality tests \par
}
he GDP Equation \par
}
he Total Energy
\par}{\phpg\posx2482\pvpg\posy4880\absw1226\absh664 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Equa
tion
The GDP Equation \par
}
he Petroleum Equation \par
}
}
he Gas Equation \par
}
}
he Electricity Equation \par
}
{\phpg\posx2482\pvpg\posy9040\absw1444\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 E
mployment Equation \par
}
otal Energy Equation \par
}
\fs14 \cf0 F(m*)
f0 {\i0 0.42978}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi360 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.12942}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi360 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.42978}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }

fi360 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.19450}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi360 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.42978}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi360 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.44478}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi360 {\i0 (9) }
f0 {\i0 0.42978}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi360 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.35503}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi360 {\i0 (9) }
f0 {\i0 0.33001}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi360 {\i0 (6) }
f0 {\i0 0.12942}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi360 {\i0 (1) }\par
}
{\phpg\posx5657\pvpg\posy4290\absw110\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 <
\par
}
{\phpg\posx5657\pvpg\posy4880\absw110\absh129 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 >
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\par
}
\fs14 \cf0 F(m*, n*)
f0 {\i0 0.44228}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.12450}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.44767}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.18264}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.45231}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.47236}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.41632}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.37793}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.32612}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 3 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }
f0 {\i0 0.13415}{\i0 x}{\i0 10}{\i0 2 }
fi330 {\i0 (1) }\par
}
Total energy consumption does not
se economic growth
Economic growth cause total
rgy consumption
Petroleum consumption does not
se economic growth
Economic growth causes petroleum
40 consumption

Gas consumption does not cause
nomic growth
Economic growth does not cause
40 gas consumption
Electric consumption causes
nomic growth
Economic growth does not cause
\par}{\phpg\posx7247\pvpg\posy4290\absw2288\absh5137 \sl-220 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 ele
ctric consumption
Energy consumption cause
loyment
Employment does not cause energy
sumption \par
}
The values in parenthesis are the optimum lags. \par
}
the energy sector especially those of petrochemical industries
where demand for
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10713\absw7253\absh1511 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 em
ployment is low{\dn006 \fs15 2}.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10713\absw7253\absh1511 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 \f
i740 Some logical inferences could be drawn from the above results. I
t seems
at increased economic activity causes growth in energy consumpti
on and since
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10713\absw7253\absh1511 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 pe
troleum products are largely imported, is also affected by growth in
GDP. While
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10713\absw7253\absh1511 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 ga
s consumption does not by itself affect GDP and vice versa, but sinc
e it is being
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy10713\absw7253\absh1511 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 mo
stly used in the power sector, it may have its affect on GDP throug
h electricity \par
}
\par
}
According to Irfan (1982) evidence during the past two decades shows that employ
ment generation \par
}
has lagged behind the growth in output and investment in the manufacturing secto
r in the developing countries.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy13115\absw7257\absh471 \sl-190 \f20 \fs14 \cf0 Whi
le estimating a demand function of labour for Pakistan, he is of the opinion tha

t an appropriate lag of an
loyment function is difficult to determine a priori. \par
}
08 \par
}
ffd8ffe000104a46494600010100000100010000ffdb004300010101010101010101010101010101
01010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
010101010101010101ffdb0043010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
0101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101ffc0
001108034a025303012200021101031101ffc4001f00000105010101010101000000000000000001
02030405060708090a0bffc400b5100002010303020403050504040000017d010203000411051221
31410613516107227114328191a1082342b1c11552d1f02433627282090a161718191a2526272829
2a3435363738393a434445464748494a535455565758595a636465666768696a737475767778797a
0101010101010101010000000000000102030405060708090a0bffc400b511000201020404030407
05040400010277000102031104052131061241510761711322328108144291a1b1c109233352f015
6272d10a162434e125f11718191a262728292a35363738393a434445464748494a53545556575859
5a636465666768696a737475767778797a82838485868788898a92939495969798999aa2a3a4a5a6
a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a00fffd9
}
}
consumption which is stimulating economic growth in Pakistan. Moreover, as eco
nomic
wth is boosting energy consumption the later is also causing
generation of
loyment in the economy as well.
\fi2755 {\b \fs17 III.}{\b \fs17
CONCLUSION }
\fi740 In this paper we attempted to find the direction of the causa
l relationship
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 bet
ween energy consumption and economic activity in Pakistan. More specif
ically
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 we
investigated the casaul relationship between growth in energy consumpti
on and
wth in GDP. Additionally, to explore the possibility of further information on
the
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 dir
ection of causality we disaggregated energy consumption into its compon
ents of
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 pet
roleum, gas and electricity consumption. Subsequently, causality was so
ught for
loyment and energy consumption. The methodology was based on the Gran
ger

sality test which has been found appropriate by using the cointegratio
n technique
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 and
finding out that there is no cointegration between the variables con
cerned. For
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 sel
ection of optimum lag length Hsiao's version of Granger causality test
s was used
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 whi
ch employ differenced data and the FPE criterion.
740 The estimated results infer that economic growth causes tota
l energy
sumption. Further investigation indicates that economic growth leads to the gr
owth
petroleum consumption, while in the case of the gas sector, neither economic gro
wth
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 nor
gas consumption effect each other. However, in the power sector it
has been
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 fou
nd that electricity consumption leads to economic growth without feedback. Fin
ally,
rgy consumption also directly causes employment.
740 The paper has important policy implications. Since Pakistan pays a
high oil
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 imp
ort bill, petroleum imports were $1.53 billion in 1999/00 and in the
preceding
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 yea
r $1.57 billion. In 2000/01 petroleum imports may be close to $2.5
billion or
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 aro
und 25 per cent of total imports (Dawn 18-23 April 2000). Therefore,
using oil
e efficiently and substituting gas for oil wherever possible could be a good pol
icy
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 mea
sure. The implications of the present study suggest that an energy c
onservation
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 pol
icy regarding petroleum consumption would not lead to any adverse side
-effects
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 on
economic growth in Pakistan, whereas energy growth policy in the case of gas and
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 ele
ctricity consumption, should be adopted in such a way that, growth in these sect
ors \par
}
stimulates economic growth.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy11383\absw2587\absh386 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 opp
ortunities in the country. \par
}
Such growth would lead to expand employment \par
}
09 \par
}
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}
}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3501\absw7260\absh5133 \b \f20 \fs17 \cf0 \fi2990 \b \f
20 \fs17 \cf0 REFERENCES
cf0 {\b0 \fs15 Cheng,}{\b0 \fs15 S.}{\b0 \fs15 Benjamin,}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0
\fs15 Tin}{\b0 \fs15 Wei}{\b0 \fs15 Lai,}{\b0 \fs15 1997.}{\b0 \fs15 "An}{
\b0 \fs15 investigation}{\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs15 co-integration}{\b0 \fs15 a
nd}{\b0 \fs15 causality}{\b0 \fs15 between }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 energy}{\b0 \fs15 consumption}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 eco
nomic}{\b0 \fs15 activity}{\b0 \fs15 in}{\b0 \fs15 Taiwan}{\b0 \fs15 Provinc
e}{\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs15 China",}{\b0\i \fs15 Energy}{\b0\i \fs15 Economi
cs}{\b0 \fs15 , }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 19,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15 435-444. }
{\b0 \fs15 Chishti,}{\b0 \fs15 S.,}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 Fakhre}{\b0 \fs1
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r}{\b0 \fs15 energy}{\b0 \fs15 in}{\b0 \fs15 the}{\b0 \fs15 large-scale}{\b0
\fs15 manufacturing}{\b0 \fs15 sector }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs15 Pakistan",}{\b0\i \fs15 Energy}{\b0\i \fs15 E
conomics}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 12,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15 251-254. }
{\b0\i \fs15 Economic}{\b0\i \fs15 Business}{\b0\i \fs15 Review}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{
\b0 \fs15 The}{\b0 \fs15 Dawn}{\b0 \fs15 18-23}{\b0 \fs15 April}{\b0 \fs15
2000. }
{\b0 \fs15 Erol,}{\b0 \fs15 U.}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 E.S.H.}{\b0 \fs15 Y
u,}{\b0 \fs15 1987a.}{\b0 \fs15 "On}{\b0 \fs15 the}{\b0 \fs15 relationship}
{\b0 \fs15 between}{\b0 \fs15 energy}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 income}{\b0 \
fs15 for}{\b0 \fs15 industrialized}{\b0 \fs15 counties", }
\fi740 {\b0\i \fs15 Journal}{\b0\i \fs15 of}{\b0\i \fs15 Energy}{\b0\i \fs15
and}{\b0\i \fs15 Employment}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15 13,}{\b0 \
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\fi80 {\b0 \fs15 ________,}{\b0 \fs15 1987b.}{\b0 \fs15 "Time}{\b0 \fs15 ser
ies}{\b0 \fs15 analysis}{\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs15 the}{\b0 \fs15 causal}{\b0
\fs15 relationships}{\b0 \fs15 between}{\b0 \fs15 U.S.}{\b0 \fs15 energy}{\b
0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 employment", }
\fi740 {\b0\i \fs15 Resources}{\b0\i \fs15 and}{\b0\i \fs15 Energy}{\b0 \fs15
,}{\b0 \fs15 16,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15 75-89. }
{\b0 \fs15 Granger,}{\b0 \fs15 C.W.J.,}{\b0 \fs15 1969.}{\b0 \fs15 "Investig
ating}{\b0 \fs15 causal}{\b0 \fs15 relations}{\b0 \fs15 by}{\b0 \fs15 econom
etrics}{\b0 \fs15 models}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 cross}{\b0 \fs15 spectral
}{\b0 \fs15 methods", }

\fi740 {\b0\i \fs15 Econometrica}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 37,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\
b0 \fs15 424-438. }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 ,1986.}{\b0 \fs15 "Developments}{\b0 \fs15 in}{\b0 \fs15 t
he}{\b0 \fs15 study}{\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs15 cointegrated}{\b0 \fs15 economi
c}{\b0 \fs15 variables".}{\b0\i \fs15
Oxford}{\b0\i \fs15 Bulletin}{\b0\i \
fs15 of }
\fi740 {\b0\i \fs15 Economics}{\b0\i \fs15 and}{\b0\i \fs15 Statistics}{\b0 \f
s15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 48,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15 213-228. }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 ,1988.}{\b0 \fs15 "Some}{\b0 \fs15 recent}{\b0 \fs15 devel
opments}{\b0 \fs15 in}{\b0 \fs15 a}{\b0 \fs15 concept}{\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs
15 causality",}{\b0\i \fs15 Journal}{\b0\i \fs15 of}{\b0\i \fs15 Econometri
cs}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 39, }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15 199-211. }
{\b0 \fs15 Hwang,}{\b0 \fs15 Dennis-}{\b0 \fs15 B.-K.,}{\b0 \fs15 Gun-Burel,}
{\b0 \fs15 1991.}{\b0 \fs15 "The}{\b0 \fs15 causal}{\b0 \fs15 relationship}
{\b0 \fs15 between}{\b0 \fs15 energy}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 GNP:}{\b0 \fs
15 The}{\b0 \fs15 case}{\b0 \fs15 of }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 Taiwan}{\b0 \fs15 Province}{\b0 \fs15 of}{\b0 \fs15 China",
}{\b0\i \fs15 Journal}{\b0\i \fs15 of}{\b0\i \fs15 Energy}{\b0\i \fs15 and}{
\b0\i \fs15 Development}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 16,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0 \fs15
219-26. }
{\b0 \fs15 Irfan}{\b0 \fs15 Mohammad}{\b0 \fs15 1982.}{\b0 \fs15 "Wages,}{\b
0 \fs15 employment}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 trade}{\b0 \fs15 unions}{\b0 \f
s15 in}{\b0 \fs15 Pakistan",}{\b0\i \fs15 Pakistan}{\b0\i \fs15 Development}
{\b0\i \fs15 Review}{\b0 \fs15 , }
\fi740 {\b0 \fs15 21(1):}{\b0 \fs15 49-68. }
{\b0 \fs15 Kraft,}{\b0 \fs15 J.}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 A.}{\b0 \fs15 Kraf
t,}{\b0 \fs15 1978.}{\b0 \fs15
"On}{\b0 \fs15 the}{\b0 \fs15 relationship}
{\b0 \fs15 between}{\b0 \fs15 energy}{\b0 \fs15 and}{\b0 \fs15 GNP",}{\b0\i
\fs15 Journal}{\b0\i \fs15 of}{\b0\i \fs15 Energy}{\b0\i \fs15 and }
\fi740 {\b0\i \fs15 Development}{\b0 \fs15 ,}{\b0 \fs15 3,}{\b0 \fs15 pp.}{\b0
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}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9365\absw3185\absh304 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 M
inistry of Finance and Economic Affairs.
40 Government of Pakistan. \par
}
{\phpg\posx5687\pvpg\posy9365\absw465\absh129 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 __
___. \par
}
\cf0 Pakistan Economic Survey{\i0 (Various}{\i0 Issues), }\par
}
{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9865\absw7254\absh574 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 M
inistry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, ______. Energy Year Book (various i
ssues), Government
40 of Pakistan.
\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9865\absw7254\absh574 \sl-305 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 Riaz

, T, 1984. "Energy consumption and economic growth",{\i Pakistan}{\i Develop
ment}{\i Review}, 23, pp. 431-53. \par
}
10 \par
}
}

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Sunil Assignment 8

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{\fonttbl{\f11\fswiss\fcharset0 Arial Narrow;}{\f10\fswiss\fcharset0 Arial;}{\f1

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{\phpg\posx5312\pvpg\posy4358\absw620\absh289 \f40 \fs17 \cf0 \f40 \fs17 \cf0 {\

5 \cf0 {\field{\*\fldinst SYMBOL 83 \\f Symbol }}{\f20 \fs18

based on the sample

\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy4098\absw7273\absh8536 \sl-250 \f20 \fs18 \cf0 >

herefore the standard

cf0 \fi180 {\b0\i \fs14 Levels }

ll the variables are in per capita log form. \par

\par}{\phpg\posx4412\pvpg\posy3970\absw920\absh5475 \sl-275 \i \f20 \fs14 \cf0 \

\par}{\phpg\posx7247\pvpg\posy4290\absw2288\absh5137 \sl-187 \par\f20 \fs14 \cf0

le estimating a demand function of labour for Pakistan, he is of the opinion tha

\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3488\absw7257\absh7042 \sl-250 \f20 \fs19 \cf0 cau

\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy3501\absw7260\absh5133 \sl-190 \b \f20 \fs17 \cf0

\par}{\phpg\posx2312\pvpg\posy9865\absw7254\absh574 \sl-305 \f20 \fs15 \cf0 Riaz

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