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  • China Economic Daily - Beijing House Prices Tumble

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    Alan Posner
    89 Ansichten4 Seiten
    In August, property developers in Beijing sold 5,621 new apartments. Taking into account 7,782 transacted in the secondary market in the same month, the overall volume dropped to its lowest in three years or down by 26% from the same period of last year. Moreover, house prices also fell sharply. In the first week of September, average price of private residential units declined by 12% or CNY 3,000psm from that in the preceding week. The marked decline in both average price and total volume is surprising, as September and October usually see more robust housing market activity. As such, we believe that the housing market in Beijing maybe nearing a tipping point, as the earlier concerted tightening measures from the government are starting to take effect.

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    China Economic Daily - Beijing house prices tumble

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    In August, property developers in Beijing sold 5,621 new apartments. Taking into account 7,782 transacted in the secondary market in the same month, the overall volume dropped to its lowest in three years or down by 26% from the same period of last year. Moreover, house prices also fell sharply. In the first week of September, average price of private residential units declined by 12% or CNY 3,000psm from that in the preceding week. The marked decline in both average price and total volume is surprising, as September and October usually see more robust housing market activity. As such, we believe that the housing market in Beijing maybe nearing a tipping point, as the earlier concerted tightening measures from the government are starting to take effect.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
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    89 Ansichten4 Seiten

    China Economic Daily - Beijing House Prices Tumble

    Hochgeladen von

    Alan Posner
    In August, property developers in Beijing sold 5,621 new apartments. Taking into account 7,782 transacted in the secondary market in the same month, the overall volume dropped to its lowest in three years or down by 26% from the same period of last year. Moreover, house prices also fell sharply. In the first week of September, average price of private residential units declined by 12% or CNY 3,000psm from that in the preceding week. The marked decline in both average price and total volume is surprising, as September and October usually see more robust housing market activity. As such, we believe that the housing market in Beijing maybe nearing a tipping point, as the earlier concerted tightening measures from the government are starting to take effect.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    von 4

    USD/CNY SPOT INTRA-DAY

    0.4

    0.4
    Weaker CNY

    0.2

    0.2

    0.0

    0.0

    -0.2

    -0.2

    Stronger CNY
    -0.4

    -0.4

    Jan-11

    Mar-11

    May-11

    Jul-11

    Sep-11

    FORWARD CURVE
    6.5

    6.5
    CNH

    NDF

    6.2

    6.2

    CNY

    5.9

    5.9

    5.6

    5.6
    CBA forecasts

    5.3

    5.3
    spot 1m 3m 6m 9m 12m 18m 24m 3y

    5y

    Prev

    Daily

    End Period

    China Market Snapshot Current

    Close

    Change

    China Forecasts

    USD/CNY

    6.3836

    6.395

    -0.18%

    USD/CNY

    USD/CNH

    6.3600

    6.3655

    -0.09%

    3 Month CNY NDF*

    -0.44%

    -0.57%

    0.13 ppts

    12 Month CNY NDF*

    -1.40%

    -1.62%

    0.22 ppts

    Shanghai Composite

    2,499

    2,516

    Shenzhen Composite

    1,101

    1,111

    3 Month CHIBOR (%)

    5.70

    5.80

    2 Year Bond Yield (%)

    3.89

    10 Year Bond Yield (%)

    4.05

    Current

    Sep-11

    Dec-11

    Mar-12

    6.3836

    6.3711

    6.2756

    6.2128

    China 2 Year Bond Yield (%)

    3.89

    3.50

    3.50

    3.70

    China 10 Year Bond Yield (%)

    4.05

    3.95

    3.95

    4.10

    Benchmark 1 Year Lending rate (%)

    6.56

    6.56

    6.56

    6.56

    -0.68%

    Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) (%)

    21.50

    22.50

    23.00

    23.00

    -0.96%

    Real GDP Grow th (%YoY)

    9.5

    9.6

    9.4

    9.2

    -10

    Inflation (%YoY)

    6.5

    5.0

    4.4

    4.0

    3.88

    0.01

    Non-food Inflation (%YoY)

    2.9

    2.3

    2.2

    2.1

    4.03

    0.02

    Food Inflation (%YoY)

    14.8

    11.5

    9.5

    8.5

    Source: Bloomberg, * denotes % difference from USD/CNY

    Source: Bloomberg, CBA

    INTEREST RATE CURVE


    %

    %
    8

    8
    lending
    SHIBOR

    4
    PBoC bill reference yield

    2
    deposit

    O/N

    1m

    3m

    6m

    9m

    12m

    1-3y

    3-5y

    SHIBOR CURVE
    %

    7.5

    7.5

    1 month ago
    current

    1 week ago

    3 months ago

    2.5

    2.5
    O/N

    1m

    3m

    6m

    9m

    12m

    EQUITY MARKETS
    Index

    Index
    3500

    1500
    Shanghai Composite (lhs)

    3000

    1300

    2500

    1100

    Shenzhen Composite
    (lhs)
    2000
    Jan 10

    900
    Jul 10

    Jan 11

    Jul 11

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