Sie sind auf Seite 1von 4

2%6(59$7,216²3(08/7,3/(     


,ZLOOGHYRWHWKLVSLHFHWRWKHGDUOLQJ¶QXPEHU·RIPRVWLQYHVWRUV«WKH3(5DWLR,WLVDSUHWW\
ORQJRQHZKHUH,ZLOOZULWHRQZKDWWKH5DWLRPHDQV«WRPH KRZRQHPD\FDXWLRXVO\XVHLW
ZKHQ ORRNLQJ DW LQYHVWLQJ LQ D FRPSDQ\ , ORYH WR JHW GUXQN RQ 0DWKHPDWLFV  +XPDQ
3V\FKRORJ\  HYHQ WRGD\ DP WU\LQJ WR ILQG DQ DQVZHU WR WKH UDWKHU HOXVLYH TXHVWLRQ RI
ZKHWKHUWKHODWWHULQIOXHQFHVWKHIRUPHU«RUWKHIRUPHU«WKHODWWHU,QLWLDOO\,WKRXJKW,ZRXOG
WU\ NHHSDVPXFKRI0DWKHPDWLFVRXWRIP\ZULWLQJVDVSRVVLEOHEXWWKHWHPSWDWLRQVDUHWRR
VWURQJ WR UHVLVW , ZLOO GLUHFWO\ GLYH LQWR WKH 0DWKHPDWLFV SDUW ILUVW«VR WKDW LI \RX DUH ERUHG
\RX PD\ OHDYH WKLV SLHFH PLGZD\ :H ZLOO DOVR VHH KRZ +XPDQ 3V\FKRORJ\ LV D EXQGOH RI
FRQWUDGLFWLRQVDVZHJRWKURXJKWKHSLHFH«


1RW VR ORQJ DJR ZKHQ , ZHQW DERXW EX\LQJ P\ ILUVW VWRFN , QRWLFHG WKDW WKH 3( RU
3ULFH(DUQLQJV  5DWLR IRU VRPH FRPSDQLHVVHFWRUV ZHUH KLJKHUORZHU WKDQ RWKHUV 7KH DQVZHU
WR WKLV FDOOHG IRU D UXGLPHQWDU\ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI VWRFN SULFHV ZKDW WKH\ VWRRG IRU  ZKDW
PRYHGVWRFNSULFHVLQWKHORQJUXQ

7KH VWRFN SULFH DW DQ\ SDUWLFXODU WLPH DV PRVW SHRSOH NQRZ UHIOHFWV WKH ¶H[SHFWDWLRQ· WKDW
LQYHVWRUV KDYH IURP WKH FRPSDQ\ LQ WKH FRPLQJ SHULRG V  :KDW LV WKH ¶([SHFWDWLRQ·" 7KH
¶([SHFWDWLRQV· EURDGO\VSHDNLQJDUH LQ WHUPVRI WKH FRPSDQ\·V¶(DUQLQJV·  ¶'LYLGHQGV·0RVW
LQYHVWRUV  , VWUHVV WKH WHUP EX\ D FRPSDQ\ IRU LWV H[SHFWHG IXWXUH (DUQLQJV  SUREDEOH
'LYLGHQGV $W WKLV PRPHQW LI KHDU VRPHRQH DVNLQJ PH ´:KDW KDSSHQV ZKHQ WKHUH DUH QR
(DUQLQJV 'LYLGHQGVµ"7KDWZLOOFRPHODWHU 

0RVW SHRSOH DVVRFLDWH 5HWXUQ ZLWK &DSLWDO $SSUHFLDWLRQ RI D VWRFN :KLOH WKLV LV QRW DOO WKDW
ZURQJ WKH &DSLWDO $SSUHFLDWLRQ PD\PD\ QRW UHIOHFW WKH ¶WUXH· *URZWK 3RWHQWLDO RI D
FRPSDQ\ , ZLOO WU\  SHHU WKURXJK WKH VXUIDFH WR VHH ZKDW ¶5HWXUQ· DQ LQYHVWRU FDQ H[SHFW
JLYHQDFRPSDQ\·VVWDWHDWDQ\SRLQWLQWLPH

,I,ZHUHWRH[SUHVVWKH7RWDO5HWXUQWKDW,FRXOGH[SHFWIURPDVWRFNZKDWZRXOGLWEH":KHQ,
LQYHVWLQDFRPSDQ\,DPORRNLQJDW*URZWKQRGRXEWEXWWKHUHLVDOVRDUDWKHU¶VLOHQW·IULHQG
LQWKHQDPHRI'LYLGHQG<LHOG PDWKHPDWLFDOO\WKLVLV'LYLGHQG3HU6KDUH3ULFH3DLG3HU6KDUH
H[SUHVVHG DV D SHUFHQWDJH  7KH 7RWDO 5HWXUQ , PDNH IURP D VWRFN LV VLPSO\ D VXP RI WKH
*URZWK WKH'LYLGHQG<LHOG

3XWWLQJDOOWKH(QJOLVK,ZURWHLQWKHODVWSDUDJUDSKLQRQHOLQHZHKDYH

7RWDO5HWXUQ *URZWK'LYLGHQG<LHOG

7KLV LV ZKDW , ORYH DERXW 0DWKHPDWLFV RQH FDQ OXFLGO\  HFRQRPLFDOO\ H[SUHVV RQHV WKRXJKWV
ZLWKRXWZDVWLQJ¶(QJOLVK· ¶7UHHV·


8VLQJ1RWDWLRQV,ZULWHWKHDERYHDVIROORZV


.  J' 3  $ 



H  

:KHUH


. LVWKH5HTXLUHG5HWXUQIURPWKH,QYHVWPHQW
JLVWKH6XVWDLQDEOH*URZWK5DWH HODERUDWHGEHORZ 
H

' 3 LVWKH'LYLGHQG<LHOG
 


+HPDQW6UHHUDPDQ
2%6(59$7,216²3(08/7,3/(     


:+$7,6¶J·"

6XSSRVH,HDUQ5VDVP\1HW3URILW GHFLGHWR¶5HWDLQ·DOORIWKLV LQYHVWLWEDFNLQWRP\
EXVLQHVV

)XUWKHU DVVXPH WKDW P\ 5HWXUQ RQ (TXLW\ RU 52( ZKLFK WHOOV DQ LQYHVWRU KRZ PXFK 5HWXUQ D
FRPSDQ\LVJHWWLQJRQWKHLQYHVWRU·VPRQH\ ODVW\HDUZDV

,I , QRZ LQYHVW WKH ¶5HWDLQHG· 5V DW ODVW \HDU·V 52(   DW WKH HQG RI WKH QH[W \HDU ,
VKRXOGHQGZLWK5V [ 

%\ GRLQJ VR , KDYH PDQDJHG WR ¶JURZ· P\ 1HW 3URILW IURP 5V WR 5V E\ ¶5HWDLQLQJ· DOO
WKH3URILWV LQYHVWLQJLWLQWRP\EXVLQHVVWRJLYHPHD*URZWK5DWHRI

1RZ ZKDW KDSSHQV LI , GHFLGH WR ¶5HWDLQ· RQO\  RI P\ 1HW 3URILW  ¶3D\RXW· WKH UHVW WR
VKDUHKROGHUVLQWKHIRUPRIDGLYLGHQG"6LPSOH,UXQWKURXJKWKHHDUOLHUPDWKDJDLQWRILQGWKH
¶J·EXWWKLVWLPHLQVWHDGRIWKH5V,ZLOOXVH5VZKLFKLVZKDWLV¶5HWDLQHG·DIWHUSD\LQJ
WKH'LYLGHQG,QWKLVFDVHWKH¶J·ZRUNVRXWWR

6R ZH VHH WKDW D FRPSDQ\·V 6XVWDLQDEOH *URZWK 5DWH ¶J· GHSHQGV RQ  IDFWRUV WKH 5HWHQWLRQ
5DWLR  WKH 52( :H ZLOO QHHG PRUH RI WKLV QXPEHU D OLWWOH ODWHU ZKHQ \RX ZLOO QRWLFH WKDW
HYHU\WKLQJVWDUWVPDNLQJLQWXLWLYHVHQVH


1RZLIZHZLOOSOD\DURXQGZLWK $ WRVHHZKDWZHWXUQXSZLWK



.  J' 3
H  

3 '  . ²J 




   H



,I,QRZGLYLGHERWKVLGHVRI % ZLWK(OHWVVHHZKDWKDSSHQV

3 (    ' (  . ²J  % 


  H


%LQJR:KDWKDYHZHJRWKHUH",I\RXFORVHO\REVHUYHWKHOHIWVLGHRIWKHHTXDWLRQ\RXZLOOVHH
WKDWLWLVWKH3(5DWLR

7KHULJKWVLGHKDVWKHIROORZLQJ

'( ZKLFK LV WKH 'LYLGHQG 3D\RXW 5DWLR RU WKH SRUWLRQ RI (DUQLQJV WKDW LV SDLG RXW DV
'LYLGHQGVWRFRPPRQVWRFNKROGHUV 

7KHGHQRPLQDWRUKDVDOUHDG\EHHQVHHQHDUOLHU


:+<'235,&(65,6('523:+(17+(5(,6$1,1&5($6(&87,1',9,'(1'"

<RXPLJKWKDYHQRWLFHGPRVWVWRFNVUXQQLQJXSDIWHUWKHFRPSDQ\DQQRXQFHVWKDWWKH\ZLOOEH
UDLVLQJ WKHLU 'LYLGHQG'LYLGHQG 3D\RXW WKLV \HDU &RQYHUVHO\ WKH PDUNHW EHDWV GRZQ D

+HPDQW6UHHUDPDQ
2%6(59$7,216²3(08/7,3/(     

FRPSDQ\·V VWRFN WKDW DQQRXQFHV D FXW LQ 'LYLGHQG :K\ GRHV WKLV KDSSHQ" 7KH HTXDWLRQ
SURYLGHVWKHDQVZHU

,I WKH 1XPHUDWRU JRHV GRZQ ZLWK WKH 'HQRPLQDWRU EHLQJ FRQVWDQW WKH 5DWLR DOVR JRHV GRZQ
,I WKH 'LYLGHQG 3D\RXW JRHV GRZQ WKH 3( DOVR JRHV GRZQ WKHUHE\ SXOOLQJ GRZQ WKH VWRFN
SULFH

$ORRNDWWKHHTXDWLRQDOVRWHOOVXVZK\ZHVHHDIDVWJURZWKFRPSDQ\FRPPDQGLQJD+LJK3(
,QIDVWJURZLQJFRPSDQLHVWKH¶J·LV+LJK:K\")DVW*URZWKFRPSDQLHVWHQGWRKDYHKLJK52(
GXHWRZKLFKWKH¶J·LVKLJK J 5HWHQWLRQ5DWLR[52( 

1RZ LI WKH 1XPHUDWRU LV KHOG FRQVWDQW ZH VHH WKDW DV ¶J· ULVHV WKH 'HQRPLQDWRU VKULQNV
5HVXOW"7KH3(5DWLRULVHV ZLWKLWWKH6WRFN3ULFH

7KH PDUNHW LV ZLOOLQJ WR SD\ D SUHPLXP IRU WKH JURZWK  KHQFH WKH 3( WHQGV WR EH KLJK <RX
ZRXOGKDYHQRWLFHGWKDWWKH'LYLGHQG 3D\RXW  WKH5HWHQWLRQ5DWLRFRXOGQ·WERWKJRXSDWWKH
VDPH WLPH 0RVW *URZWK FRPSDQLHV WHQG WR KDYH /RZHU 3D\RXW 5DWLRV WKDQ 5HWHQWLRQ 5DWLRV
7KLV FDQ EH DWWULEXWHG WR WKH IDFW WKDW WKH\ QHHG WKH PRQH\  WKH\ KDYH HQRXJK DYHQXHV WR
LQYHVWWKHPRQH\DWDJRRGUDWHRIUHWXUQ

7KHVXEVFULSWVWDQGVIRUWKH¶([SHFWHG·QXPEHU¶QH[W·\HDU6RWKH3(LQWKHHTXDWLRQJLYHV
XV WKH ¶([SHFWHG· 3( JLYHQ DQ H[SHFWHG 'LYLGHQG 3D\RXW  *URZWK 5DWH 7KLV LV FRQVLVWHQW
ZLWKWKHYLHZWKDWVWRFNSULFHVUHIOHFW¶([SHFWDWLRQV·UDWKHUWKDQZKDW·VKDSSHQHGLQWKHSDVW

7KLVZULWHXSLVE\ QRPHDQVH[KDXVWLYH7KHUH DUH ORWVRI RWKHU WKLQJV WKDW JR LQWRWKH3(DV
ZHOO EXW WKLV PRGHO JLYHV XV DQ LQWURGXFWLRQ WR PDWKHPDWLFDOO\ ¶VHH· WKLQJV , ORYH
PDWKHPDWLFV 

7KH HTXDWLRQ DOVR JLYHV XV DQ LQVLJKW LQWR ZK\ WKH 3( IRU &\FOLFDOV IOXFWXDWH GHSHQGLQJ RQ
ZKHUHWKHF\FOLFDOLVLQWKH¶F\FOH:KHQWLPHVDUHEDGWKH¶J·ZLOOEHORZ LIWKHFRPSDQ\LV
&DVK5LFK LW PLJKW XS WKH 'LYLGHQG 3D\RXW +RZHYHU WKH  WHUPV RQ WKH ULJKW VLGH RI WKH
HTXDWLRQDGMXVWLQDZD\ZKLFKNHHSVWKH3(ORZ« KHQFHWKHVWRFNSULFHV

:KHQWLPHVWXUQIRUWKHJRRGWKH¶J·PRYHVXS IRUWKHPRPHQWDVVXPLQJWKH.HLVFRQVWDQW
WKH GHQRPLQDWRU VKULQNV DJDLQ WKHUHE\ SXVKLQJ XS WKH 3(«  KHQFH«ZHOO E\ QRZ \RX NQRZ
ZKDW


:+$7,)7+(5($5(12($51,1*6«25',9,'(1'6"

6LPSOH7KHPRGHOEUHDNVGRZQ

:H QRZ QHHG WR UHVRUW WR RWKHU 9DOXDWLRQ PRGHOV OLNH WKH 'LVFRXQWHG &DVK )ORZ 9DOXDWLRQ WR
JLYHXVDQLGHDRIWKH¶IDLU·YDOXH7KHVDPHKROGVIRUFRPSDQLHVWKDWGHFODUHQR'LYLGHQGV,Q
WKLV FDVH WKH HTXDWLRQ JLYHV XV D  ZKLFK LV SUHWW\ PXFK ULGLFXORXV $ )DVW *URZWK FRPSDQ\
PD\SD\QRGLYLGHQGLQLWVHDUO\\HDUVDVLWQHHGVDOOWKHPRQH\IRUJURZWK

)RUFRPSDQLHVWKDWSD\QRGLYLGHQGWKHPDUNHWV¶H[SHFW·WKHPWRSD\DGLYLGHQG¶VRPHGD\· 
WKDWLVZKDWPRYHVSULFHV

«:KLFKEULQJVPHIDFHWRIDFHZLWK3V\FKRORJ\


+HPDQW6UHHUDPDQ
2%6(59$7,216²3(08/7,3/(     


35(',&7%,/,7<"

:H KXPDQV E\ QDWXUH SXW D SUHPLXP RQ 3UHGLFWDELOLW\ 1RW RQO\ LQ OLIH EXW DOVR LQ WKH
FRPSDQLHVZHZDQWWREX\6RZKHQZHORRNDWDFRPSDQ\DVDSURVSHFWLYHEX\ZHWU\ ORRN
DW WKH IDFWRUV WKDW ZH FDQ ¶SUHGLFW· SUHWW\ ZHOO 2QFH ZH DV D JURXS PDQDJH WR SUHWW\ PXFK
DJUHH RQ RXU ¶SUHGLFWLRQ· VR WKDW ZH KDYH D ¶FRQVHQVXV· ILJXUH ZH DUH UHDG\ WR SD\ D
¶SUHPLXP· IRU WKDW FRPSDQ\ 7KDW LV RQH UHDVRQ IRU WKH +LJK 3(V RI 6RIWZDUH FRPSDQLHV
ZKLFKWUDGLWLRQDOO\KDYHIROORZHGD¶WKLVLVRXUQH[W\HDU·VJXLGDQFH·SKLORVRSK\1HYHUPLQGLI
WKH¶JXLGDQFH·LVRIIWKHPDUN,IWKHJXLGDQFHLVJRRGWKHPDUNHWVUHZDUGWKHPE\XSSLQJWKH
SULFHV  7KH VDPH PDUNHW EHDWV WKH SULFHV GRZQ LI XQIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH ¶JXLGDQFH· LV ¶JXLGHG·
GRZQ

7KLQJVDUHQ·WWKDWVLPSOHDOZD\V3HRSOHZHUHEX\LQJOLNHKHOOLQWR0LFURVRIWLQWKHGD\VLWZDV
SD\LQJ QR GLYLGHQG 7KH SULFHV ZHQW XS ,Q VXFK FDVHV WKH PDUNHWV ¶H[SHFW· WKHP WR SD\ D
GLYLGHQG ¶VRPH GD\·  WKDW LV ZKDW PRYHV SULFHV &ORVHU KRPH %KDUWL 7HOHYHQWXUHV LV DQ
H[DPSOH

:KDW LV WKH ¶5LJKW· SULFH LV LQGHHG GHEDWDEOH  LW·V YHU\ VHOGRP WKDW WZR SHRSOH DJUHH RQ WKH
SULFH ,W DPD]HV PH KRZ GLIIHUHQW SHRSOH FDQ WKLQN ZKHQ LW FRPHV WR D VWRFN SULFH ,Q JRRG
WLPHV SHRSOH NHHS EX\LQJ WKHUHE\ XSSLQJ WKH 3( UDWLR 7KH SULFHV XS PDUNHW PRYHV XS 
PRVW IHHO WKDW WKH JRRG WLPHV ZLOO ODVW IRUHYHU 7KLV FDXVHV WKHP WR MXVWLI\ KLJK 3( RQ VRPH
EDVLVRUDQRWKHUWKHUHE\WDNLQJSULHVWRVWUDWRVSKHULFOHYHOV

3HRSOH VWDUW ORRNLQJ DW ¶5HODWLYH· YDOXDWLRQ  EX\ WKH FRPSDQ\ WKDW ILJXUHV RQ WKH ORZHU HQG
FRPSDUHG WR WKH ¶6HFWRU 3(·  ODXG WKHPVHOYHV IRU ILQGLQJ ¶D JUHDW EX\· 1HYHU PLQG LI WKH
HQWLUHVHFWRULVLWVHOI¶RYHUYDOXHG·:KRLVFRUUHFW"(YHU\RQH7KDW·VZKDWWKHPDUNHWVEHOLHYH
LQ


7KLV ILQDOO\ EULQJV PH WR P\ XQDQVZHUHG TXHVWLRQ RI ZKHWKHU 0DWKHPDWLFV LQIOXHQFHV +XPDQ
EHKDYLRURUYLFHYHUVD

$V ZH VDZ 0DWKHPDWLFV EHDXWLIXOO\  OXFLGO\ H[SODLQV ZK\ SULFHV PRYH JLYHQ D VHW RI ¶QH[W
\HDU· H[SHFWDWLRQV EXW KRZ PDQ\ SHRSOH NQRZ DERXW LW" ,I , ZHUH WR WKUXVW WKH HTXDWLRQ RQ
VRPHERG\·V IDFH  WROG KLP WKDW 0DWKHPDWLFV LV FDSDEOH RI H[SODLQLQJ KLV EHKDYLRU KH ZLOO
PRVW SUREDEO\ EDON DW PH +H ZRXOG WKLQN LW·V D QREUDLQHU 'LYLGHQG GRZQ SULFHV GRZQ HWF
DOOWKLVLVORJLFDOZKDW·VWKHIXVVDOODERXW"

0D\EH %XW LW ILOOV P\KHDUWZLWKKDSSLQHVVWKDWD VLPSOHHTXDWLRQLVFDSDEOH RI H[SODLQLQJ WKH
PDGQHVV DPRQJ SHRSOH LQ WKH PDUNHWV«  WR WKH VPDUW RQHV LW WHDFKHV WKHP KRZ WR FRQWURO
WKHLURZQEHKDYLRU



´+RSH«FDQ·WVXEVWLWXWH5HDVRQµ

+HPDQW6UHHUDPDQ

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen