use
7. The lower class limit for the first class is 16; the lower class limit for the second class is 16 + 7 = 23.
The total number of data points is 50, so calculate the relative frequency by dividing the class
frequency by 50.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 2 239
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Age Distribution of DUI Arrests
Class
Limits
Class
Boundaries
Midpoint Frequency Relative
Frequency
Cumulative
Frequency
1622 15.522.5 19 8 0.16 8
2329 22.529.5 26 11 0.22 19
3036 29.536.5 33 11 0.22 30
3743 36.543.5 40 7 0.14 37
4450 43.550.5 47 6 0.12 43
5157 50.557.5 54 4 0.08 47
5864 57.564.5 61 3 0.06 50
The class boundaries are the average of the upper class limit of the next class. The midpoint is the
average of the class limits for that class.
(c)
Age
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
64.5 57.5 50.5 43.5 36.5 29.5 22.5 15.5
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Hi st ogr am of Age
(d) This distribution is skewed right.
240 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 2
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
9. (a) The largest value is 142 mm, and the smallest value is 69. For seven classes, we need a class width of
142 69
10.4;
7
use 11. The lower class limit of the first class is 69, and the lower class limit of the
second class is 69 + 11 = 80.
The class boundaries are the average of the upper class limit of one class and the lower class limit of
the next higher class. The midpoint is the average of the class limits for that class. There are 60 data
values total, so the relative frequency is the class frequency divided by 60.
Class
Limits
Class
Boundaries
Midpoint Frequency
Relative
Frequency
Cumulative
Frequency
6979 68.579.5 74 2 0.03 2
8090 79.590.5 85 3 0.05 5
91101 90.5101.5 96 8 0.13 13
102112 101.5112.5 107 19 0.32 32
113123 112.5123.5 118 22 0.37 54
124134 123.5134.5 129 3 0.05 57
135145 134.5145.5 140 3 0.05 60
(b)
Cir cumf er ence
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
145.5 134.5 123.5 112.5 101.5 90.5 79.5 68.5
25
20
15
10
5
0
Hi st ogr am of Ci r cumf er ence
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 2 241
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c)
Cir cumf er ence
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
145.5 134.5 123.5 112.5 101.5 90.5 79.5 68.5
40
30
20
10
0
Hi st ogr am of Ci r cumf er ence
(d) This distribution is skewed left.
(e) The ogive begins on the x axis at the lower class boundary and connects dots placed at (x, y)
coordinates (upper class boundary, cumulative frequency).
10. (a) General torts occur most frequently.
F
i
l
i
n
g
s
(
1
0
0
0
s
)
All Other Other Product Asbestos Contracts Torts
200
150
100
50
0
Par et o Char t of Fi l i ngs vs Type
(b)
5.2%
All Ot her
9.4%
Ot her Product
12.1%
Asbest os
47.0%
Tort s
26.4%
Cont ract s
Pi e Char t of Fi l i ngs
242 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 2
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
11. (a) To determine the decade that contained the most samples, count both rows (if shown) of leaves; recall
that leaves 04 belong on the first line and leaves 59 belong on the second line when two lines per
stem are used. The greatest number of leaves is found on stem 124, i.e., the 1240s (the 40s decade in
the 1200s), with 40 samples.
(b) The number of samples with treering dates 1200 to 1239 A.D. is 28 + 3 + 19 + 25 = 75.
(c) The dates of the longest interval with no sample values are 1204 through 1211 A.D. This might mean
that for these 8 years, the pueblo was unoccupied (thus no new or repaired structures), or that the
population remained stable (no new structures needed), or that, say, weather conditions were
favorable those years, so existing structures didnt need repair. If relatively few new structures were
built or repaired during this period, their tree rings might have been missed during sample selection.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 261
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Chapter 3: Averages and Variation
Calculations may vary slightly owing to rounding.
Section 3.1
1. The middle value is the median. The most frequent value is the mode. The mean takes all values into
account.
2. The symbol for the sample mean is , x and the symbol for the population mean is .
3. For a moundshaped, symmetric distribution, the mean, median, and mode all will be equal.
4. (a) Mean, median, and mode if it exists
(b) Mode if it exists
(c) Mean, median, and mode if it exists
5. (a) Mode = 5, the most common value
Median = 4, the middle value in the ordered data set
Mean =
2 3 4 5 5 19
3.8
5 5
+ + + +
= =
(b) Only the mode
(c) All three make sense.
(d) The mode and the median
6. (a) Mode = 2, the most common value
Median = 3, the middle value in the ordered data set
Mean =
2 2 3 6 10
4.6
5
+ + + +
=
(b) Mode = 7, median = 8, mean = 9.6, using the same techniques as part (a)
(c) Each statistic was increased by 5. In general, adding a constant c to each value in a data set results in
the mode, median, and mean increasing by c.
7. (a) Mode = 2, the most common value
Median = 3, the middle value in the ordered data set
Mean =
2 2 3 6 10
4.6
5
+ + + +
=
(b) Mode = 10, median = 15, mean = 23, using the same techniques as part (a)
(c) Each statistic was multiplied by 5. In general, multiplying each value in a data set by a constant c
results in the mode, median, and mean being multiplied by c.
(d) Mode = 177.8 cm, median = 172.72 cm, mean = 180.34 cm
8. (a) If the largest data value is replaced by a larger value, the mean will increase because the sum of the
data values will increase. The median will not change because the same value will still be in the eighth
position when the data are ordered.
(b) If the largest value is replaced by a smaller value (but still higher than the median), the mean will
decrease because the sum of the data values will decrease. The median will not change because the
same value will be in the eighth position in increasing order.
262 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c) If the largest value is replaced by a value that is smaller than the median, the mean will decrease
because the sum of the data values will decrease. The median also will decrease because the former
value in the eighth position will move to the ninth position in increasing order. The median will be the
new value in the eighth position.
9. Mean =
146 152 144
167.3
14
+ + +
To compute the median, first order the data set smallest to largest. Then
Median =
168 174
171
2
+
=
Mode = most common value = 178
10.
111
Mean 6.167
18
5 7
Median 6
2
Mode 7
=
+
= =
=
11. First, organize the data from smallest to largest. Then compute the mean, median, and mode.
(a) Upper Canyon
1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 9
36
Mean 3.27
11
Median 3 (middle value)
Mode 3 (occurs most frequently)
x
x
n
= = =
=
=
(b) Lower Canyon
0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 7 8 13 14
59
Mean 4.21
14
2 2
Median 2
2
Mode 1 (occurs most frequently)
x
x
n
= = =
+
= =
=
(c) The mean for the Lower Canyon is greater than that of the Upper Canyon. However, the median and
mode for the Lower Canyon are less than those of the Upper Canyon.
(d) 5% of 14 is 0.7, which rounds to 1. So eliminate one data value from the bottom of the list and one
from the top. Then compute the mean of the remaining 12 values.
45
5% trimmed mean 3.75
12
x
n
= = =
Now this value is closer to the Upper Canyon mean.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 263
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
12. (a)
1050
Mean 26.3
40
x
x
n
= = = years
25 26
Median 25.5
2
+
= = years
Mode 25 =
(b) The three averages are close, so each represents the age fairly accurately. There may be one high
outlier (37), so the median may be the best measure.
13. (a)
2723
Mean $136.20
20
65 68
Median $66.50
2
Mode $60.00
x = =
+
= =
=
(b) 5% of 20 data values is 1, so we remove the smallest and largest values and recompute the mean.
2183
Mean $121.30
18
x = = . The trimmed mean is still much larger than the median.
(c) Reporting the median certainly will give the customer a much lower figure for the daily cost, but that
really doesnt tell the whole story. Reporting the mean and the median, as well as the high outliers,
may be the most useful description of the situation.
14.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Weighted average =
92 0.25 81 0.225 93 0.225 85 0.30
1
87.65
xw
w
+ + +
=
=
15.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Weighted average =
9 2 7 3 6 1 10 4
2 3 1 4
85
10
8.5
xw
w
+ + +
=
+ + +
=
=
16. (a) Weighted average
64.1(0.38) 75.8(0.47) 23.9(0.07) 68.2(0.08)
1
67.1 mg/l
xw
w
+ + +
=
(b) Since 67.1 mg/L is greater than 58 mg/L, this wetlands system does not meet the target standard for
the chlorine compound. The average chlorine compound mg/L is too high.
264 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
17.
2
Harmonic mean 66.67
1 1
60 75
=
+
mph
18.
5
Geometric mean 1.10 1.12 1.148 1.038 1.16 1.112 = = . Thus the average growth factor is
approximately 11%.
Section 3.2
1. The mean is associated with the standard deviation.
2. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
3. Yes. When computing the sample standard deviation, divide by n 1. When computing the population
standard deviation, divide by n.
4. The symbol for the sample standard deviation is S. The symbol for the population standard deviation is .
5. (a) i, ii, iii
(b) The data change between data sets (i) and (ii) increased by the squared difference sum
2
( ) x x
by
10, whereas the data change between data sets (ii) and (iii) increased the squared difference sum
2
( ) x x
by only 6.
6. (a)
( )
2
3.61
1
x x
s
n
=
(b) Adding a constant to each data value does not change s. Thus s 3.61.
(c) Shifting data by c units does not change the standard deviation.
7. (a) s 3.61 (same as above)
(b) s 18.0
(c) We see that the standard deviation has increased by 5. In general, multiplying each data value by a
constant c will result in the standard deviation being multiplied by the absolute value of c.
8. (a) No, 80 is only 2 standard deviations away from its mean.
(b) Yes, 80 is 3.33 standard deviations away from its mean.
9. (a) Range = maximum minimum = 30 15 = 15
(b) Use a calculator to verify that 110 x = and that
2
2, 568. x =
(c) Computation formula (sample data) for
2
. s
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 265
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
2
2
( )
2
(110)
5
1
2568
5 1
6.08
x
n
x
s
n
2 2
6.08
37
s =
(d)
110
22
5
x
x
n
= = =
Defining formula (sample data) for
2
. s
2
2 2 2
( )
1
(23 22) (17 22) (25 22)
5 1
6.08
x x
s
n
=
+ + +
=
2 2
6.08
37
s =
(e) 22 =
2
2 2 2
( )
(23 22) (17 22) (25 22)
5
5.44
x
N
=
+ + +
=
2 2
5.44
29.59
=
266 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
10. (a)
X
2
x y
2
y
11 121 10 100
0 0 2 4
36 1296 29 841
21 441 14 196
31 961 22 484
23 529 18 324
24 576 14 196
11 121 2 4
11 121 3 9
21 441 10 100
103 x =
2
4607 x = 90 y =
2
2258 y =
(b)
103
10.3
10
x
x
n
= = =
90
9
10
y
y
n
= = =
2
2
( )
2
(103)
10
1
4607
10 1
19.85
x
n
x
s
n
2
2
( )
2
(90)
10
1
2258
10 1
12.68
y
n
y
s
n
2 2
19.85 394.0 s =
2 2
12.68 160.8 s =
(c) x 2s = 10.3 2(19.85) = 29.4
x + 2s = 10.3 + 2(19.85) = 50
y = 2s = 9 2(12.68) = 16.36
y + 2s = 9 + 2(12.68) = 34.36
At least 75% of the returns for the stock Total Stock Fund fall between 29.4% and 50%, whereas at
least 75% of the returns for the Balanced Index fall between 16.36% and 34.36.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 267
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(d) Stock fund: CV =
19.85
100 100 192.7%
10.3
s
x
=
Balanced fund:
12.68
100 100 140.9%
9
s
CV
y
= =
For each unit of return, the balanced fund has lower risk. Since the CV can be thought of as a measure
of risk per unit of expected return, a smaller CV is better because a lower risk is better.
11. (a) Range = 7.89 0.02 = 7.87
(b) Use a calculator to verify that 62.11 x = and
2
164.23. x =
(c)
62.11
1.24
50
x
x
n
= =
2
2
( )
2
(62.11)
50
1
164.23
50 1
1.333
1.33
x
n
x
s
n
2 2
1.333
1.78
s =
(d)
1.33
100 100 107%
1.24
s
CV
x
= =
The standard deviation of the time to failure is just slightly larger than the average time.
12. (a)
x
2
x y
2
y
13.20 174.24 11.85 140.42
5.60 31.36 15.25 232.56
19.80 392.04 21.30 453.69
15.05 226.50 17.30 299.29
21.40 457.96 27.50 756.25
17.25 297.56 10.35 107.12
27.45 753.50 14.90 222.01
16.95 287.30 48.70 2371.69
23.90 571.21 25.40 645.16
268 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
32.40 1049.76 25.95 673.40
40.75
1660.56
57.60
3317.76
5.10
26.01
34.35
1179.92
17.75
315.06
38.80
1505.44
28.35
803.72
41.00
1681.00
31.25
976.56
284.95 x =
2
7046.80 x = 421.5 y =
2
14, 562.27 y =
(b) Grid E:
284.95
20.35
14
x
x
n
= = =
2
2
( )
2
2
(284.95)
14
1
7046.80
14 1
96
x
n
x
s
n
2
96 9.80 s s = =
Grid H:
421.5
28.1
15
y
y
n
= = =
2
2
( )
2
2
(421.5)
15
1
14, 562.27
15 1
194
y
n
y
s
n
2
194 13.93 s s = =
(c) 2 20.35 2(9.80) 0.75 x s = =
2 20.35 2(9.80) 39.95 x s + = + =
For Grid E, at least 75% of the data fall in the interval 0.7539.95.
2 28.1 2(13.93) 0.24 y s = =
2 28.1 2(13.93) 55.96 y s + = + =
For Grid H, at least 75% of the data fall in the interval 0.2439.95. Grid H shows a wider 75% range of
values.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 269
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(d) Grid E:
9.80
100 100 48%
20.35
s
CV
x
= =
Grid H:
13.93
100 100 49%
28.1
s
CV
y
= =
Grid H demonstrates slightly greater variability per expected signal. The CV, together with the confidence
interval, indicates that Grid H might have more buried artifacts.
13. (a) Students verify results with a calculator.
(b)
245
49
5
x
x
n
= = =
2
2
( )
2
(245)
5
1
14, 755
5 1
26.22
x
n
x
s
n
2 2
26.22 687.49 s =
(c)
224
44.8
5
y
y
n
= = =
2
2
( )
2
(224)
5
1
12, 070
5 1
22.55
y
n
y
s
n
2 2
22.55 508.50 s =
(d) Mallard nest:
26.22
100 100 53.5%
49
s
CV
x
= =
Canada Goose nest:
22.55
100 100 50.3%
44.8
s
CV
y
= =
The CV gives the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. With respect to their means, the variation
for the mallards is slightly higher than the variation for the Canada geese.
14. (a)
14.05
Pax 100 100 146.7%
9.58
12.50
Vanguard 100 100 138.6%
9.02
s
CV
x
s
CV
x
= =
= =
Vanguard fund has slightly less risk per unit of return.
(b) Pax: 2 9.58 2(14.05) 18.52
2 9.58 2(14.05) 37.68
x s
x s
= =
+ = + =
At least 75% of returns for Pax fall within the interval 18.52% to 37.68%.
270 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Vanguard: 2 9.02 2(12.50) 15.98
2 9.02 2(12.50) 34.02
x s
x s
= =
+ = + =
At least 75% of the returns for Vanguard fall within in the interval 15.98% to 34.02%.
Vanguard has a narrower range of returns, with less downside, but also less upside.
15. 100
s
CV
x
=
100
x CV
s =
( )
100
2.2 1.5
100
0.033
x CV
s
s
s
=
=
=
16.
Class f x xf x x
( )
2
x x ( )
2
x x f
110 34 5.5 187 10.6 112.36 3820.24
1120 18 15.5 279 0.6 0.36 6.48
2130 17 25.5 433.5 9.4 88.36 1502.12
31 and over 11 35.5 390.5 19.4 376.36 4139.96
80 n f = =
1290 xf =
( )
2
9468.8 x x f =
( )
2
2
1290
16.1
80
9468.8
119.9
1 79
119.9 10.95
xf
x
n
x x f
s
n
s
= =
= =
=
1
7
Class
f
x
xf x
( )
2
x x
( )
2
x x f
2130 260
6630
106.09 27,583.4
3140 348 3
5
12,354
0.09 31.3
41 and
287 4
5
13,058.5 9
7
94.09 27,003.8
8 n f = =
32,042 xf =
( )
2
54, x x f =
( )
2
2
32,042.5
35.80
895
54,619
61.1
1 894
61.1 7.82
xf
x
n
x x
s
n
s
f
= =
= =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 271
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
18.
x f xf
2
x f
3.5 2 7 24.5
4.5 2 9 40.5
5.5 4 22 121.0
6.5 22 143 929.5
7.5 64 480 3,600.0
8.5 90 765 6,502.5
9.5 14 133 1,263.5
10.5 2 21 220.5
200 f = 1, 580 xf =
2
12,702 x f =
( ) ( )
2 2
2
1,580
7.9
200
1, 580
12,702 220
200
220
1.05
1 199
1.05
100 100 13.29%
7.9
x
x
xf
x
n
xf
SS x f
n
SS
s
n
s
CV
x
= = =
= = =
= =
= =
19.
Class f x xf x x
( )
2
x x ( )
2
x x f
8.612.5 15 10.55 158.25 5.05 25.502 382.537
12.616.5 20 14.55 291.00 1.05 1.102 22.050
16.620.5 5 18.55 92.75 2.95 8.703 43.513
20.624.5 7 22.55 157.85 6.95 48.303 338.118
24.628.5 3 26.55 79.65 10.95 119.903 359.708
50 n f = =
779.5 xf =
( )
2
1,145.9 x x f =
( )
2
2
779.5
15.6
50
1,145.9
23.4
1 49
23.4 4.8
xf
x
n
x x f
s
n
s
= =
= =
=
20. (a) Students can use a TI83 to verify the calculations.
(b) For 1992,
1.78 17.79 7.46
9.01
3
x
+ +
= =
For 2000,
17.49 6.80 2.38
7.30
3
x
+
= =
(c) Students can use a TI83 to verify the calculations.
(d) The 3year moving averages have approximately the same mean as computed in part (a), but the
standard deviation is much smaller.
272 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
21.
( )
( )
( )
2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
2
2 2 2 2 2 2
2
2
2 2
2 2
2
x x x xx x x xx x
x x x nx x xnx nx
x
x  nx nx x nx x n
n
x
x
n
= + = + =
+ = + =
+ = = =
Section 3.3
1. 82% or more of the scores were at or below her score. 100% 82% = 18% or fewer of the scores were
above her score.
2. The upper quartile is the 75th percentile. Therefore, the minimum percentile rank must be the 75th
percentile.
3. No, the score 82 might have a percentile rank less than 70. Raw scores are not necessarily equal to
percentile scores.
4. Timothy performed better because a percentile rank of 72 is greater than a percentile rank of 70.
5. Order the data from smallest to largest.
Lowest value 2
Highest value 42
=
=
There are 20 data values.
23 23
Median 23
2
+
= =
There are 10 values less than the Q
2
position and 10 values greater than the Q
2
position.
1
3
3 1
8 11
9.5
2
28 29
28.5
2
28.5 9.5 19
Q
Q
IQR Q Q
+
= =
+
= =
= = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 273
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
M
o
n
t
h
s
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Boxpl ot of Mont hs f or Nur ses
6. (a) Order the data from smallest to largest.
Lowest value 3
Highest value 72
=
=
There are 20 data values.
22 24
Median 23
2
+
= =
There are 10 values less than the median and 10 values greater than the median.
1
3
3 1
15 17
16
2
29 31
30
2
30 16 14
Q
Q
IQR Q Q
+
= =
+
= =
= = =
M
o
n
t
h
s
C
l
e
r
i
c
a
l
40
30
20
10
0
Boxpl ot of Mont hs Cl er i cal
274 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) The median for nurses and clerical workers is 23 months. The upper half of the data for the nurses falls
between values of 23 and 42 months, whereas the upper half of the data for the clerical workers falls
between 23 and 72 months. The distance between Q
3
and the maximum for nurses is 13.5 months; for
clerical workers, this distance is 42 months. The distance between Q
1
and the minimum for nurses is
7.5 months; for clerical workers, this distance is 13 months.
7. (a) Lowest value 17
Highest value 38
=
=
There are 50 data values.
24 24
Median 24
2
+
= =
There are 25 values above and 25 values below the Q
2
position.
1
3
22
27
27 22 5
Q
Q
IQR
=
=
= =
C
o
l
l
e
g
e
G
r
a
d
u
a
t
e
s
35
30
25
20
15
Boxpl ot of Col l ege Gr aduat es
(b) 26% is in the third quartile because it is between the median and Q
3
.
8. (a) Lowest value 5
Highest value 15
=
=
There are 50 data values.
10 10
Median 10
2
+
= =
There are 25 values above and 25 values below the Q
2
position.
1
3
9
12
12 9 3
Q
Q
IQR
=
=
= =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 275
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
H
i
g
h
S
c
h
o
o
l
D
r
o
p
o
u
t
s
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
Boxpl ot of Hi gh School Dr opout s
(b) 7% is in the first quartile because it is below Q
1
.
9. (a) California has the lowest premium, and Pennsylvania has the highest.
(b) Pennsylvania has the highest median premium.
(c ) California has the smallest range, and Texas has the smallest IQR.
(d) The smallest IQR will be Texas. The largest IQR will be Pennsylvania.
For figure (a), IQR = 3,652 2,758 = 894
For figure (b), IQR = 5,801 4,326 = 1,475
For figure (c), IQR = 3,966 2,801 = 1,165
Therefore, figure (a) is Texas and figure (b) is Pennsylvania. By elimination, figure (c) is California.
10. (a) Order the data from smallest to largest.
Lowest value 4
Highest value 80
=
=
There are 24 data values.
65 66
Median 65.5
2
+
= =
There are 12 values above and 12 values below the median.
1
3
61 62
61.5
2
71 72
71.5
2
Q
Q
+
= =
+
= =
276 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
H
e
i
g
h
t
s
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Boxpl ot of Hei ght s
(b)
3 1
71.5 61.5 10 IQR Q Q = = =
(c) ( )
( )
( )
1
3
1.5 10 15
Lower limit: 1.5 61.5 15 46.5
Upper limit: 1.5 71.5 15 86.5
Q IQR
Q IQR
=
= =
+ = + =
(d) Yes, the value 4 is below the lower limit and so is an outlier; it is probably an error.
Chapter 3 Review
1. (a) The variance and the standard deviation
(b) Boxandwhisker plot
2. (a) For (i), the mode is the tallest bar, namely, 7; the median and mean are estimated to be 7. For (ii), the
mode = median = mean = 7.
(b) Distribution (i) will have a larger standard deviation because more data are in the tails. This is
indicated by the tall bars at values of 4 and 10.
3. (a) For both data sets, the mean is 20. Also, for both data sets, the range = maximum minimum = 31 7
= 24.
(b) Data set C1 seems more symmetric because the mean equals the median and the median is centered in
the interquartile range.
(c) For C1, IQR = 25 15 = 10. For C2, IQR = 22 20 = 2. Thus, for C1, the middle 50% of the data have
a range of 10, whereas for C2, the middle 50% of the data have a smaller range of 2.
4. (a) Mean =
1.9 2.8 7.2
8
36.2
8
4.525
x
x
n
+ + +
= =
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 277
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Order the data from smallest to largest.
1.9 1.9 2.8 3.9 4.2 5.7 7.2 8.6
Median =
3.9 4.2
4.05
2
+
=
The mode is 1.9 because it is the value that occurs most frequently.
(b)
( )
2
42.395
2.46
1 7
2.46
100 100 54.4%
4.525
x x
s
n
s
CV
x
= =
= =
Range = 8.6 1.9 6.7 =
5. (a) Lowest value 31
Highest value 68
=
=
There are 60 data values.
45 45
Median 45
2
+
= =
There are 30 values above and 30 values below the Q
2
position.
1
3
40 40
40
2
52 53
52.5
2
52.5 40 12.5
Q
Q
IQR
+
= =
+
= =
= =
G
e
o
r
g
i
a
D
e
m
o
c
r
a
t
s
70
60
50
40
30
Boxpl ot of Per cent age of Geor gi a Democr at s by Count y
278 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) Class width = 8
Class
Midpoint
x
f xf
2
x f
3138 34.5 11 379.5 13,092.8
3946 42.5 24 1020 43,350.0
4754 50.5 15 757.5 38,253.8
5562 58.5 7 409.5 23,955.8
6370 66.5 3 199.5 13,266.8
60 n f = = 2, 766 xf =
2
131,919 x f =
( )
2
2
(2,766) 2
60
2,766
46.1
60
131, 919
4,406.4
8.64
1 59 59
xf
n
xf
x
n
x f
s
n
= = =
= = =
( )
( )
2 46.1 2 8.64 28.82
2 46.1 2 8.64 63.38
x s
x s
= =
+ = + =
We expect at least 75% of the counties in Georgia to have between 28.82% and 63.38% Democrats.
(c) 46.15, 8.63 x s =
6. (a)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Weighted average =
92 0.05 73 0.08 81 0.08 85 0.15 87 0.15 83 0.15 90 0.34
0.05 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.34
85.77
1
85.77
xw
w
+ + + + + +
=
+ + + + + +
=
=
(b)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Weighted average =
20 0.05 73 0.08 81 0.08 85 0.15 87 0.15 83 0.15 90 0.34
1
82.17
xw
w
+ + + + + +
=
=
7.
2, 500
Mean weight 156.25
16
= =
The mean weight is 156.25 lb.
8. (a) Lowest value 7.8
Highest value 29.5
=
=
There are 72 data values.
20.2 20.3
Median 20.25
2
+
= =
There are 36 values above and 36 values below the Q
2
position.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 279
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
1
3
14.0 14.4
14.2
2
23.8 23.8
23.8
2
Q
Q
+
= =
+
= =
(b) IRQ = 23.8 14.2 = 9.6 kilograms
(c)
K
i
l
o
g
r
a
m
s
30
25
20
15
10
Boxpl ot of Ki l ogr ams
(d) The median is closer to the maximum value, indicating that the higher weights are more concentrated
than the lower weights. The lower whisker is also longer than the upper, which emphasizes again
skewness toward the lower values. Yes, the lower half shows slightly more spread, indicating
skewness to the left (low).
9. (a) A college degree does not guarantee an increase of 83.4% in earnings compared with a highschool
diploma. This statement is based on averages.
(b) We compute as follows:
2 $51, 206 2($8, 500) $34, 206
2 $51, 206 2($8, 500) $68, 206
x s
x s
= =
+ = + =
(c)
(0.46)(4, 500) (0.21)(7, 500) (0.07)(12, 000) (0.08)(18, 000) (0.09)(24, 000) (0.09)(31, 000)
0.46 0.21 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09
$10, 875
x
x
+ + + + +
= =
+ + + + +
=
10. (a) Order the data from smallest to largest.
Lowest value 6
Highest value 16
=
=
There are 50 data values.
11 11
Median 11
2
+
= =
280 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
There are 25 values above and 25 values below the Q
2
position.
1
3
3 1
10
13
13 10 3
Q
Q
IQR Q Q
=
=
= = =
S
o
i
l
W
a
t
e
r
C
o
n
t
e
n
t
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
Boxpl ot of Soi l Wat er Cont ent
(b)
Class
Midpoint
x
f xf
2
x f
68 7 4 28 196
911 10 24 240 2,400
1214 13 15 195 2,535
1517 16 7 112 1,792
50 n f = = 575 xf =
2
6,923 x f =
( )
2
2
(575) 2
50
575
11.5
50
6, 923
310.5
2.52
1 49 49
xf
n
xf
x
n
x f
s
n
= = =
= =
( )
( )
2 11.5 2 2.52 6.46
2 11.5 2 2.52 16.54
x s
x s
= =
+ = + =
We expect at least 75% of the soil water content measurements to fall in the interval 6.4616.54.
(c) Using a TI83, 11.48; 2.44 x s
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 281
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
11.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Weighted average =
5 2 8 3 7 3 9 5 7 3
2 3 3 5 3
121
16
7.56
xw
w
+ + + +
=
+ + + +
=
Cumulative Review Problems Chapters 1, 2, 3
1. (a) Median, percentile
(b) Mean, variance, standard deviation
2. (a) Gap between first bar and rest of bars or between last bar and rest of bars
(b) Large gap between data on far left side or far right side and rest of data
(c) Several empty stems after stem including lowest values or before stem including highest values
(d) Data beyond fences placed at Q
1
1.5(IQR) and at Q
3
+ 1.5(IQR).
3. (a) Same
(b) Set B has higher mean.
(c) Set B has higher standard deviation.
(d) Set B has much longer whisker beyond Q
3.
4. (a ) In Set A, 86 is the relatively higher score because a larger percentage of scores fall below it.
(b) In Set B because 86 is more standard deviations above the mean
5. One could assign a consecutive number to each well in West Texas and then use a randomnumber table or
a computer package to draw the simple random sample.
6. The pH levels are ratios because the values can be multiplied. Also, 0 pH is meaningful and not just a place
on the scale.
7. Use the ones digit for the stem and the tenths decimal for the leaves. Split each stem into five rows.
Here, 7 0 = 7.0.
7 000000001111111111
7 222222222233333333333
7 44444444455555555
7 666666666777777
7 8888899999
8 01111111
8 2222222
8 45
8 67
8 88
282 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
8.
Class Limits
Class
Boundaries
Midpoints Frequency
Relative
Frequency
Cumulative
Frequency
7.07.3 6.957.35 7.15 39 0.382 0.382
7.47.7 7.357.75 7.55 32 0.314 0.696
7.88.1 7.758.15 7.95 18 0.176 0.872
8.28.5 8.158.55 8.35 9 0.088 0.960
8.68.9 8.558.95 8.75 4 0.039 0.999
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
8.95 8.55 8.15 7.75 7.35 6.95
40
30
20
10
0
Hi st ogr am of pH Level
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
8.95 8.55 8.15 7.75 7.35 6.95
40
30
20
10
0
Hi st ogr am of pH Level
To construct the frequency polygon, draw a dot at the minimum class boundary, at each midpoint, and at
the maximum class boundary. Then connect the dots.
9. To draw the ogive, the vertical axis is labeled with relative frequency, and the horizontal axis is labeled
with the upper class boundaries. Draw a dot at the minimum class boundary and zero, and then draw a dot
at each upper class boundary and the corresponding cumulative frequency. Connect the dots.
10. Range = 8.8 7.0 = 1.8
7.0 7.0 ... 8.8
7.58
102
7.5 7.5
Median 7.5 Mode 7.3
2
x
x
n
+ + +
= = =
+
= = =
11. (a) The students can verify the figures using a calculator or a statistics package.
(b)
( )
2
2
2
0.1984
1
0.1984 0.4454
0.4454
0.59 5.9%
7.58
x x
s
n
s s
s
CV
x
= =
= = =
= = = =
The sample variance is only 5.9% of the mean. This appears to be small.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 3 283
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
12.
2( ) 7.58 2(0.4454) 6.69
2( ) 7.58 2(0.4454) 8.47
x s
x s
= =
+ = + =
Thus 75% of all pH levels are found between 6.69 and 8.47.
13. We know the minimum value is 7.0, the maximum value is 8.8, and the median is 7.5. Using Minitab, we
find that Q
1
= 7.2 and Q
3
= 7.9. Thus IQR = 7.9 7.2 = 0.7.
p
H
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
Boxpl ot of pH Level s f or West Texas
14. The histogram shows that the distribution is skewed right. Lower values are more common because the
height of the bars is higher.
15. 87.2% of the wells have a pH of less than 8.15. 57.8% of the wells could be used for the irrigation. Here,
57.8% = 31.4% + 17.6% + 8.8%.
16. There do not appear to be any outliers because there are no large gaps in the data set. Eight are neutral.
17. Half the wells are found to have a pH between 7.2 and 7.9. There is skewness toward the high values,
with half the wells having a pH between 7.5 and 8.8. The boxplot and the histogram are consistent
because both show the distribution to be right skewed.
18. Answers will vary. Good reports will include the preceding graphs, measures of center, measures of
variation, and a comment about any unusual features.
296 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
Chapter 4: Elementary Probability Theory
Section 4.1
1. Equally likely outcomes, relat ive frequency, intuition
2. The complement is not rain today. This probability is 100% 30% = 70%.
3. (a) The probability of a certain event is 1.
(b) The probability of an impossible event is 0.
4. The law of large numbers states that in the long run, as the sample size or number of trials increases, the
relative frequency of outcomes approaches the theoretical probability of the outcome. Five hundred trials
are better because the law of large numbers works better for larger samples.
5. No. The probability of throwing tails on the second toss is 0.50 regardless of the outcome on the first toss.
6. (a) Probabilities must be between 0 and 1 inclusive. 0.41 < 0
(b) Probabilities must be between 0 and 1 inclusive. 1.21 > 1
(c) 120% = 1.20, and probabilit ies must be between 0 and 1 inclusive. 1.20 > 1
(d) Yes, 0 0.56 1.
7. The resulting relat ive frequency can be used as an estimate of the true probability of all Americans who can
wiggle their ears.
8. The resulting relat ive frequency can be used as an estimate of the true probability of all Americans who can
raise one eyebrow.
9. (a) P(no similar preferences)
15 71 124 131 34
(0) , (1) , (2) , (3) , (4)
375 375 375 375 375
P P P P P = = = = = =
(b)
15 71 124 131 34 375
1,
375 375
+ + + +
= = yes
Personality types were classified into four main preferences; all possible numbers of shared preferences
were considered. The sample space is 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 shared preferences.
10. (a) The sample space would be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 dots. If the die is fair, all outcomes will be equally
likely.
(b)
1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
6
P P P P P P = = = = = = because the die faces are equally likely, and there are six
outcomes. The probabilities should and do add to 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 6
1
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
+ + + + + = =
because all
possible outcomes have been considered.
(c) P(number of dots < 5) = P(1 or 2 or 3 or 4 dots) = P(1) + P (2) + P(3) + P(4)
1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6
= + + +
4 2
6 3
= =
or P(dots < 5) = 1 P(5 or 6 dots)
1 2
1
3 3
= = (The applicable probability rule used here will be
discussed in the next section of the text; rely on your common sense for now.)
(d) Complementary event rule: P(A) = 1 P(not A)
P(5 or 6 dots) = 1 P(1 or 2 or 3 or 4 dots)
2 1
1 ,
3 3
= = or P(5 or 6) = P(5) + P(6)
1 1 2 1
6 6 6 3
= + = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 297
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
11. (a) Note: Includes the left limit but not the right limit means 6 A.M. t ime t < noon, noon t < 6 P.M.,
6 P.M. t < midnight, midnight t < 6 A.M.
P(best idea 6 A.M.12 noon)
290
0.30
966
=
P(best idea 12 noon6 P.M.)
135
0.14
966
=
P(best idea 6 P.M.12 midnight)
319
0.33
966
P(best idea from 12 midnight to 6 A.M.)
222
0.23
966
=
(b) The probabilit ies add up to 1. They should add up to 1 provided that the intervals do not overlap and
each inventor chose only one interval. The sample space is the set of four time intervals.
12. (a) P(germinate) =
number germinated 2, 430
0.81
number planted 3, 000
= =
(b) P(not germinate) =
3, 000 2, 430 570
0.19
3, 000 3, 000
= =
(c) The sample space is two outcomes, germinate and not germinate.
P(germinate) + P(not germinate) = 0.81 + 0.19 = 1
The probabilit ies of all the outcomes in the sample space should and do sum to 1.
(d) No because P(germinate) = 0.81 P(not germinate) = 0.19
If they were equally likely, each would have probability
1
0.5.
2
=
13. (a) Given: Odds in favor of A are n:m i.e.,
n
m
.
Show: ( )
n
P A
m n
=
+
Proof: Odds in favor of A are
( )
(not )
P A
P A
by definition
(not ) 1 ( ) complementary events
( ) ( )
substitution
(not ) 1 ( )
[1 ( )] [ ( )] cross multiply
[ ( )] [ ( )]
[ ( )] [ ( )]
( )[ ( )]
P A P A
n P A P A
m P A P A
n P A m P A
n n P A m P A
n n P A m P A
n n m P A
=
= =
=
=
= +
= +
So ( ),
n
P A
n m
=
+
as was to be shown.
(b) Odds of a successful call are 2 to 15. Now 2 to 15 can be written as 2:15 or
2
.
15
From part (a): if the odds are 2:15 (let n = 2, m = 15), then P(sale)
2
2 15
n
n m
= =
+ +
2
0.118.
17
=
298 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
(c) Odds of free throw are 3 to 5, i.e., 3:5.
Let n = 3 and m = 5 here; then, from part (a):
P(free throw)
3 3
0.375
3 5 8
n
n m
= = = =
+ +
14. (a) Given: Odds against W are a:b or .
a
b
Show: P(not W) .
a
a b
=
+
Proof: Odds against W are
(not )
( )
P W
P W
by definition.
( ) 1 (not ) complementary events
(not )
substitution
( )
(not )
substitution
1 (not )
[ (not )] [1 (not )]
P W P W
P W a
P W b
P W a
P W b
b P W a P W
=
=
=
= crossmultiply
[ (not )] [ (not )]
[ ( )] [ (not )]
( )[ (not )]
(not )
b P W a a P W
b P not W a P W a
a b P W a
a
P W
a b
=
+ =
+ =
=
+
(not )
a
P W
a b
=
+
, as was to be shown.
(b) Point Givens betting odds are 9:5. Betting odds are based on the probability that the horse does not
win, so odds against Point Given (PG) winning are
(not PG wins)
.
(PG wins)
P
P
Let a = 9 and b = 5 in part (a) formula. From part (a), P(not PG wins)
9 9
,
9 5 14
a
a b
= = =
+ +
but event
not PG wins is the same as PG loses, so P(PG loses)
9
0.64,
14
= and P(PG wins)
9 5
1 0.36.
14 14
= =
(c) Betting odds for Monarchos are 6:1. Betting odds are based on the probability that the horse does not
win; i.e., the horse loses.
Let W be the event that Monarchos wins. From part (a), if the events against W are given as a:b, the
P(not W) .
a
a b
=
+
Let a = 6 and b = 1 in the part (a) formula, so
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 299
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
6 6
(not )
6 1 7
6
(not ) (Monarchos loses)= 0.86
7
P W
P W P
= =
+
=
(Monarchos wins) ( ) 1 (not )
6 1
1 0.14
7 7
P P W P W = =
= =
(d) Invisible Ink was given betting odds of 30 to 1; i.e., odds against Invisible Ink winning were
30
1
.
Let W denote the event that Invisible Ink wins. Let a = 30, b = 1 in formula from part (a).
Then, from part (a), P(not W)
30 30
, (not Invisible Ink wins) ;
30 1 31
a
P
a b
= = =
+ +
i.e.,
30
(Invisible Ink loses) 0.97
31
(Invisible Ink wins) 1 (Invisible Ink loses)
30 1
1 0.03
31 31
P
P P
=
=
= =
15. One approach is to make a table showing the information about the 127 people who walked by the store.
Buy Did Not Buy Row Total
Came into the store 25 58 25 = 33 58
Did not come in 0 69 127 58 = 69
Column total 25 102 127
If 58 came in, 69 didnt; 25 of the 58 bought something, so 33 came in but didnt buy anything. Those who
did not come in couldnt buy anything. The row entries must sum to the row totals, the column entries must
sum to the column totals, and the row totals, as well as the column totals, must sum to the overall total, i.e.,
the 127 people who walked by the store. Also, the four inner cells must sum to the overall total: 25 + 33 + 0
+ 69 = 127.
This kind of problem relies on formula (2),
number outcomes favorable to
(event ) .
total number of outcomes
A
P A =
(a)
58
( ) 0.46
127
P A = Here, we divide by 127 people.
(b)
25
( ) 0.43
58
P A = Here, we divide by 58 people (only those who entered).
(c)
58 25 25
( ) (Enter and buy) 0.20
127 58 127
P A P = = =
Or similarly, read from the table that 25 people both entered and bought something. Divide this by the
total number of people, namely, 127.
(d)
33
( ) (Buy nothing) 0.57
58
P A P = = Here, we divide by 58 people.
300 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
Section 4.2
1. No. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time.
2. If A and B are independent, then P(A) = P(A  B). Therefore, P(A  B) = 0.3.
3. (a) Event A cannot occur if event B has occurred. Therefore, P(A  B) = 0.
(b) Since we are told that P(A) 0, and we have determined that P(A  B) = 0, we can deduce that
P(A) P(A  B). Therefore, events A and B are not independent.
4. (a) P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) if events A and B are independent. This product can equal zero only if either
P(A) = 0 or P(B) = 0 (or both). We are told that P(A) 0 and that P(B) 0.
Therefore, P(A and B) 0.
(b) By the preceding line, the definition of mutually exclusive events is violated. Thus A and B are not
mutually exclusive.
5. (a) P(A and B) (b) P(B  A) (c) P(A
c
 B)
(d) P(A or B) (e) P(A or B
c
)
6. (a) P(A
c
or B) (b) P(B  A) (c) P(A  B)
(d) P(A and B
c
) (e) P(A and B)
7. (a) Green and blue are mutually exclusive because each M&M candy is only one color.
P(green or blue) = P(green) + P(blue) = 10% + 10% = 20% = 0.20.
(b) Yellow and red are mutually exclusive once again because each candy is only one color.
P(yellow or red) = P(yellow) + P(red) = 20% + 20% = 40% = 0.40.
(c) Use the complementary event.
P(not purple) = 1 P(purple) = 1 0.20 = 0.80 = 80%
8. The total number of arches tabled is 288. Arch heights are mutually exclusive.
(a) P(3 to 9 feet)
111
288
=
(b) P(30 feet or taller) = P(30 to 49) + P(50 to 74) + P(75 and higher)
30 33 18 81
288 288 288 288
= + + =
(c) P(3 to 49 feet) = P(3 to 9) + P(10 to 29) + P(30 to 49)
111 96 30 237
288 288 288 288
= + + =
(d) P(10 to 74 feet) = P(10 to 29) + P(30 to 49) + P(50 to 74)
96 30 33 159
288 288 288 288
= + + =
(e) P(75 feet or taller)
18
288
=
Hint: For Problems 912, refer to Figure 42 if necessary. Think of the outcomes as an (x, y) ordered pair.
9. (a) Yes, the outcome of the red die does not influence the outcome of the green die.
(b) P(5 on green and 3 on red) = P(5 on green) P(3 on red)
1 1 1
0.028
6 6 36
= =
.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 301
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
(c) P(3 on green and 5 on red) = P(3 on green) P(5 on red)
1 1 1
0.028
6 6 36
= =
(d) P[(5 on green and 3 on red) or (3 on green and 5 on red)]
= P(5 on green and 3 on red) + P(3 on green and 5 on red)
=
1 1 2 1
0.056
36 36 36 18
+ = = (because they are mutually exclusive outcomes).
10. (a) Yes.
(b) P(1 on green and 2 on red) = P(1 on green) P(2 on red)
1 1 1
6 6 36
= =
(c) P(2 on green and 1 on red) = P(2 on green) P(1 on red)
1 1 1
6 6 36
= =
(d) P[(1 on green and 2 on red) or (2 on green and 1 on red)]
= P(1 on green and 2 on red) + P(2 on green and 1 on red)
=
1 1 2 1
36 36 36 18
+ = = (because they are mutually exclusive outcomes).
11. (a) We can obtain a sum of 6 as follows: 1 + 5 = 6
2 + 4 = 6
3 + 3 = 6
4 + 2 = 6
5 + 1 = 6
(sum 6) [(1, 5) or (2, 4) or (3 on red, 3 on green) or (4, 2) or (5, 1)]
(1, 5) (2, 4) (3, 3) (4, 2) (5, 1)
because the (red, green) outcomes are mutually exclusive
1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6
P P
P P P P P
= =
= + + + +
= + +
1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6
because the red die outcome is independent of the green die outcome
1 1 1 1 1 5
36 36 36 36 36 36
+ +
= + + + + =
(b) We can obtain a sum of 4 as follows: 1 + 3 = 4
2 + 2 = 4
3 + 1 = 4
(sum is 4) [(1, 3) or (2, 2) or (3, 1)]
(1, 3) (2, 2) (3, 1)
because the (red, green) outcomes are mutually exclusive
1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6
because the red die outcome is inde
P P
P P P
=
= + +
= + +
pendent of the green die outcome
1 1 1 3 1
36 36 36 36 12
= + + = =
(c) You cannot roll a sum of 6 and a sum of 4 at the same time. These are mutually exclusive events.
P(sum of 6 or 4) = P(sum of 6) + P(sum of 4) =
5 3 8 2
36 36 36 9
+ = =
302 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
12. (a) We can obtain a sum of 7 as follows: 1 + 6 = 7
2 + 5 = 7
3 + 4 = 7
4 + 3 = 7
5 + 2 = 7
6 + 1 = 7
(sum is 7) [(1, 6) or (2, 5) or (3, 4) or (4, 3) or (5, 2) or (6, 1)]
(1, 6) (2, 5) (3, 4) (4, 3) (5, 2) (6, 1)
because the (red, green) outcomes are mutually exclusive
1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6
P P
P P P P P P
=
= + + + + +
= + +
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
because the red die outcome is independent of the green die outcome
1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 6
+ + +
= + + + + + = =
(b) We can obtain a sum of 11 as follows: 5 + 6 = 11 or 6 + 5 = 11
(sum is 11) [(5, 6) or (6, 5)]
(5, 6) (6, 5)
because the (red, green) outcomes are mutually exclusive
1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6
because the red die outcome is independent of the green die outcome
P P
P P
=
= +
= +
1 1 2 1
36 36 36 18
= + = =
(c) You cannot roll a sum of 7 and a sum of 11 at the same t ime. These are mutually exclusive events.
P(sum is 7 or 11) = P(sum is 7) + P(sum is 11) =
6 2 8 2
36 36 36 9
+ = =
13. (a) No, the draws are not independent. The key idea is without replacement because the probability of
the second card drawn depends on the first card drawn. Let the card draws be represented by an (x, y)
ordered pair. For example, (K, 6) means the first card drawn was a king and the second card drawn was
a 6. Here the order of the cards is important.
(b) P(ace on first draw and king on second draw) = P(ace, king)
4 4 16 4
52 51 2, 652 663
= = =
There are four aces and fpour kings in the deck. Once the first card is drawn and not replaced, there are
only 51 cards left to draw from, but all the kings are available.
(c) P(king, ace)
4 4 16 4
52 51 2652 663
= = =
(d) P(ace and king in either order)
= P[(ace, king) or (king, ace)]
= P(ace, king) + P(king, ace)
because these two outcomes are mutually exclusive
=
16 16 32 8
2, 652 2, 652 2, 652 663
+ = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 303
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
14. (a) No, the draws are not independent. The key idea is without replacement because the probability of
the second card drawn depends on the first card drawn. Let the card draws be represented by an (x, y)
ordered pair. For example, (K, 6) means the first card drawn was a king and the second card drawn was
a 6. Here the order of the cards is important.
(b) (3, 10) [(3 on 1st) and (10 on 2nd, given 3 on 1st)]
(3 on 1st) (10 on 2nd, given 3 on 1st)
4 4 16 4
0.006
52 51 2, 652 663
P P
P P
=
=
= = =
(c) (10, 3) [(10 on 1st) and (3 on 2nd, given 10 on 1st)]
(10 on 1st) (3 on 2nd, given 10 on 1st)
4 4 16 4
0.006
52 51 2, 652 663
P P
P P
=
=
= = =
(d) P[(3, 10) or (10, 3)] = P(3, 10) + P(10, 3) because these two outcomes are mutually exclusive.
=
4 4 8
0.012
663 663 663
+ =
15. (a) Yes, the draws are independent. The key idea is with replacement. When the first card drawn is
replaced, the sample space is the same for the second card as it was for the first card. In fact, it is
possible to draw the same card t wice. Let the card draws be represented by an (x, y) ordered pair; for
example, (K, 6) means a king was drawn, replaced, and then the second card, a 6, was drawn.
(b) (A, K) (A) (K) because they are independent.
4 4 16 1
52 52 2, 704 169
P P P =
= = =
(c) (K, A) (K) (A) because they are independent.
4 4 16 1
52 52 2, 704 169
P P P =
= = =
(d) P[(A, K) or (K, A)] = P(A, K) + P(K, A) because the two outcomes are mutually exclusive.
=
1 1 2
169 169 169
+ =
16. (a) Yes, the draws are independent. The key idea is with replacement. When the first card drawn is
replaced, the sample space is the same for the second card as it was for the first card. In fact, it is
possible to draw the same card t wice. Let the card draws be represented by an (x, y) ordered pair; for
example, (K, 6) means a king was drawn, replaced, and then the second card, a 6, was drawn.
(b) (3, 10) (3) (10) because draws are independent.
4 4 16 1
0.0059
52 52 2, 704 169
P P P =
= = =
(c) (10, 3) (10) (3) because of independence.
4 4 16 1
0.0059
52 52 2, 704 169
P P P =
= = =
(d) P[(3, 10) or (10, 3)] = P(3, 10) + P(10, 3) because the two outcomes are mutually exclusive.
=
1 1 2
0.0118
169 169 169
+ =
304 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
17. (a) P(6 years old or older) = 27% + 14% + 22% = 63%
(b) P(12 years old or younger) = 1 P(13 years old or older) = 100% 22% = 78%
(c) P(Bet ween 6 and 12 years old) = 27% + 14% = 41%
(d) P(Bet ween 2 and 9 years old) = 22% + 27% = 49%
The 13andolder category may include children up to 17 or 18 years old. This is a larger category.
18. Let S denote senior. Let F denote got the flu. We are given the following probabilit ies:
P(F  S) = 0.14 P(F  S
c
) = 0.24 P(S) = 0.125 P(S
c
) = 0.875
(a) P(S and F) = P(S) P(F  S) = (0.125) (0.14) = 0.0175
(b) P(S
c
and F) = P(S
c
) P(F  S
c
) = (0.875) (0.24) = 0.21
(c) Here, P(S) = 0.95, so P(S
c
) = 1 0.95 = 0.05
(a) P(S and F) = P(S) P(F  S) = (0.95) (0.14) = 0.133
(b) P(S
c
and F) = P(S
c
) P(F  S
c
) = (0.05) (0.24) = 0.012
(d) Here, P(S) = P(S
c
) = 0.50.
(a) P(S and F) = P(S) P(F  S) = (0.50) (0.14) = 0.07
(b) P(S
c
and F) = P(S
c
) P(F  S
c
) = (0.50) (0.24) = 0.12
19. Let T denote telling the truth. Let L denote machine catches a person lying. We are given the following
probabilit ies:
P(L  T
c
) = 0.72 P(L  T) = 0.07
(a) Given P(T) = 0.90. Then
P(T and L) = P(T) P(L  T) = (0.90) (0.07) = 0.063
(b) Given P(T
c
) = 0.10. Then
P(T
c
and L) = P(T
c
) P(L  T
c
) = (0.10) (0.72) = 0.072
(c) Given P(T) = P(T
c
) = 0.50. Then
P(T and L) = (0.50) (0.07) = 0.035
P(T
c
and L) = (0.50) (0.72) = 0.36
(d) Given P(T) = 0.15 and P(T
c
) = 0.85. Then
P(T and L) = (0.15) (0.07) = 0.0105
P(T
c
and L) = (0.85) (0.72) = 0.612
20. (a) We want to solve for P(T
c
). There are t wo possibilities when the polygraph says that the person is
lying: Either the polygraph is right, or the polygraph is wrong. If the polygraph is right, the polygraph
results show lying, and the person is not telling the truth; i.e., P(L and not T). If the polygraph is
wrong, then the polygraph results show lying, but in fact, the person is telling the truth; i.e., P(L and
T).
P(L) = P(L and T
c
) + P(L and T) =
[P(T
c
) P(L  T
c
)] + [P(T) P(L  T)] =
[P(T
c
) P(L  T
c
)] + {[1 P(T
c
)] P(L  T)}
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 305
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
We are told that P(L) = 0.30, so
0.30 = [P(T
c
) P(L  T
c
)] + {[1 P(T
c
)] P(L  T)} (**)
= [P(T
c
) 0.72 ] + {[1 P(T
c
)] 0.07}
= (0.72) P(T
c
) + {0.07 [0.07 P(T
c
)]}
0.23 = P(T
c
) (0.72 0.07) = P(T
c
) (0.65)
0.23/ 0.65 = P(T
c
) = 0.354 = 35.4%
(b) Here, P(L) = 70% = 0.70. Replace the 0.30 with 0.70 in (**) and solve.
P(T
c
) = 0.63/0.65 = 0.969
21. (a) P(S)
686
1,160
=
P(S  A)
270
580
=
P(S  Pa)
416
580
=
(b) No, they are not independent. P(S  Pa) P(S) based on the previous part.
(c) P(A and S) = 270/ 1,160 using the table.
P(Pa and S) = 416/1,160 using the table.
(d) P(N)
474
1,160
=
P(N  A)
310
580
=
(e) No, they are not independent. P(N  A) P(N) based on the preceding part.
(f) ( or ) ( ) ( ) ( and )
580 686 270 996
1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160
P A S P A P S P A S = +
= + =
22. (a) P(+  condit ion present)
110
130
=
(b) P( condition present)
20
130
=
(c) P(  condition absent) =
50
70
(d) P(+  condit ion absent)
20
70
=
(e) P(condition present and +) = P(condition present) P(+  condition present)
130 110 110
200 130 200
= =
(f) P(condition present and ) = P(condition present) P(  condition present)
130 20 20
200 130 200
= =
306 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
23. Let C denote the presence of the condition and not C denote absence of the condition.
(a) P(+  C)
72
154
=
(b) P(  C)
82
154
=
(c) P(  not C)
79
116
=
(d) P(+  not C)
37
116
=
(e) P(C and +) = P(C) P(+  C)
154 72 72
270 154 270
= =
(f) P(C and ) = P(C) P(  C)
154 82 82
270 154 270
= =
24. (a) P(10 to 14 years) =
291
2008
(b) P(10 to 14 years  East) =
77
452
(c) P(at least 10 years) =
291 535 826
2008 2008
+
=
(d) P(at least 10 years  East) =
45 86 131
373 373
+
=
(e) P(West  less than 1 year) =
41
157
(f) P(South  less than 1 year) =
53
157
(g) P(1 or more years  East) = 1 P(less than 1 year  East) =
32 420
1
452 452
=
(h) P(1 or more years  West) = 1 P(less than 1 year  West) =
41 332
1
373 373
=
(i) We can check if P(East) = P(15 or more years  East). If these probabilities are equal, then the events
are independent.
452 118
(East) 0.225 (15 years  East) 0.261
2008 452
P P = = + = =
Since the probabilities are not equal, the events are not independent.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 307
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
25. Given: Let A be the event that a new store grosses > $940,000 in year 1; then A
c
is the event the new store
grosses $940,000 the first year.
Let B be the event that the store grosses > $940,000 in the second year; then B
c
is the event the store
grosses $940,000 in the second year of operation.
2Year Results Translations
A and B Profitable both years
A and B
c
Profitable first but not second year
A
c
and B Profitable second but not first year
A
c
and B
c
Not profitable either year
P(A) = 65% (show profit in first year)
P(A
c
) = 35%
P(B) = 71% (show profit in second year)
P(B
c
) = 29%
P(close) = P(A
c
and B
c
)
P(B, given A) = 87%
(a) P(A) = 65% = 0.65
(b) P(B) = 71% = 0.71
(c) P(B  A) = 87% = 0.87
(d) P(A and B) = P(A) P(B  A) = (0.65)(0.87) = 0.5655 0.57
(e) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) = 0.65 + 0.71 0.57 = 0.79
(f) P(not closed) = P(show a profit in year 1 or year 2 or both) = 0.79
P(closed) = 1 P(not closed) = 1 0.79 = 0.21
26. P(female) = 85%, so P(male) = 15%
P(BSN  female) = 70%
P(BSN  male) = 90%
(a) P(BSN  female) = 70% = 0.70
(b) P(BSN and female) = P(female) P(BSN  female) = (0.85) (0.70) = 0.595
(c) P(BSN  male) = 90% = 0.90
(d) P(BSN and male) = P(male) P(BSN  male) = (0.15)(0.90) = 0.135
(e) Of the graduates, some are female and some are male. We can add the mutually exclusive
probabilit ies.
P(BSN) = [P(BSN  female) P(female)] + [P(BSN  male) P(male)] = [(0.70) (0.85)] + [(0.90)
(0.15)] = 0.73
(f) The phrase will graduate and is female describes the proportion of all students who are female and
will graduate. The phrase will graduate, given female describes the proportion of the females who
will graduate. Observe from parts (a) and (b) that the probabilities are indeed different.
27. Let TB denote that the person has tuberculosis.
Let + denote the test for tuberculosis indicates the presence of the disease.
Let denote the test for tuberculosis indicates the absence of the disease.
We are given the following probabilit ies: P(+  TB) = 0.82 (sensitivity of the test)
P(+  TB
c
) = 0.09 (falsepositive rate)
P(TB) = 0.04
(a) P(TB and +) = P(+  TB) P(TB) = (0.82) (0.04) = 0.0328
(b) P(TB
c
) = 1 P(TB) = 1 0.04 = 0.96
(c) P(TB
c
and +) = P(+  TB
c
) P(TB
c
) = (0.09) (0.96) = 0.0864
308 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
28. Known: Let A be the event the client relapses in phase I.
Let B be the event the client relapses in phase II.
Let C be the event that the client has no relapse in phase I; i.e., C = not A.
Let D be the event that the client has no relapse in phase II; i.e., D = not B.
P(A) = 0.27, so P(A
c
) = P(C) = 1 0.27 = 0.73
P(B) = 0.23, so P(B
c
) = P(D) = 1 0.23 = 0.77
P(B
c
 A
c
) = 0.95 = P(D  C) = 0.95
P(B  A) = 0.70
Possible Outcomes Translation
A, B Relapse in I, relapse in II
A
c
, B (= C, B) No relapse in I, relapse in II
A, B
c
(= A, D) Relapse in I, no relapse in II
A
c
, B
c
(= C, D) No relapse in I no relapse in II
(a) P(A) = 0.27, P(B) = 0.23, P(C) = 0.73, P(D) = 0.77
(b) P(B  A) = 0.70, P(D  C) = 0.95
(c) P(A and B) = P(A) P(B  A) = (0.27) (0.70) = 0.189
P(C and D) = P(C) P(D  C) = (0.73) (0.95) = 0.6935
(d) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) = 0.27 + 0.23 0.189 = 0.311
(e) P(C and D) = 0.69
(f) P(A and B) = 0.189
(g) Translate as the inclusive or. P(A or B) = 0.31.
Section 4.3
1. The permutations rule counts the number of different arrangements, or r items out of n distinct items. Here,
the ordering matters. The combinations rule counts the number of groups of r items out of n distinct items.
Here, the ordering does not matter. For a permutation, ABC is different from ACB. For a combination,
ABC and ACB are the same item. The number of permutations is larger than the number of combinations.
2. A tree diagram lists all possible events. The user of the diagram can trace the sequential event from the start
to the end by following a distinct path along the branches. Counting the number of final branches gives the
total number of outcomes.
3. (a) Use the combinations rule because we are concerned only with the groups of size five.
(b) Use the permutations rules because we are concerned with the number of different arrangements of
size five.
4. Both methods are correct because you are counting the number of possible arrangements of five items
taken five at a time.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 309
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
5. (a)
(b) HHT, HTH, THH. There are three outcomes.
(c) There are eight possible outcomes, and three outcomes have exactly t wo heads.
3
8
.
310 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
6. (a)
(b) H5, H6. There are two outcomes.
(c) There are 12 possible outcomes, and 2 outcomes meet the requirements.
2 1
12 6
= .
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 311
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
7. (a)
(b) Let P(x, y) be the probability of choosing an xcolored ball on the first draw and a ycolored ball on the
second draw. Notice that the probabilities add to 1.
2 1 2 1
( , )
6 5 30 15
2 3 6 1
( , )
6 5 30 5
2 1 2 1
( , )
6 5 30 15
P R R
P R B
P R Y
= = =
= = =
= = =
3 2 6 1
( , )
6 5 30 5
3 2 6 1
( , )
6 5 30 5
3 1 3 1
( , )
6 5 30 10
1 2 2 1
( , )
6 5 30 15
1 3 3 1
( , )
6 5 30 10
P B R
P B B
P B Y
P Y R
P Y B
= = =
= = =
= = =
= = =
= = =
312 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
8. (a) For clarity, only a partial tree diagram is provided. Each of the branches for B, C, and D would
continue in the same manner as the fully expanded A branch.
(b) If the outcomes are equally likely, then P(all 3 correct)
1 1 1 1
4 4 4 64
= =
.
9. Using the provided hint, we multiply. There are 4 3 2 1 = 4! = 24 possible wiring configurations.
10. Using the multiplication rule, we mult iply. There are 4! = 24 possible ways to visit the four cities. This
problem is exactly like Problem 9.
11. There are four fert ilizers, three temperature zones for each fertilizer, and three water treat ments for every
fertilizertemperature zone combination. She needs to test 4 3 3 = 36 plots.
12. (a) The die rolls are independent, so mult iply the six outcomes for the first die and the six outcomes for
the second die. There are 6 6 = 36 possible outcomes.
(b) There are three possible even outcomes per die. There are 3 3 = 9 outcomes.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 313
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
(c) P(even, even)
9 1
0.25
36 4
= = =
Using P(event)
number of favorable outcomes
total number of outcomes
=
Problems 13, 14, 15, and 16 deal wi th permutations.
Use
,
!
( )!
n r
n
P
n r
=
to count the number of ways r objects can be selected from n objects when ordering
matters.
13.
5, 2
: 5, 2 P n r = =
5, 2
5! 5 4 3 2 1
20
(5 2)! 3!
P
= = =
14.
8, 3
: 8, 3 P n r = =
8, 3
8! 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5!
336
(8 3)! 5! 5!
P
= = = =
15.
7, 7
: 7 P n r = =
7, 7
7! 7!
7! 5, 040 (recall 0! 1)
(7 7)! 0!
P = = = = =
In general,
,
! ! !
!
( )! 0! 1
n n
n n n
P n
n n
= = = =
.
16.
9, 9
: 9 P n r = =
9, 9
9! 9! 9!
362, 880
(9 9)! 0! 1
P = = = =
Problems 17, 18, 19, and 20 deal wi th combi nations.
Use
,
!
!( )!
n r
n
C
r n r
=
to count the number of ways r objects can be selected from n objects when ordering
is irrelevant.
17.
5, 2
: 5, 2 C n r = =
5, 2
5! 5! 5 4 3 2 1 20
10
2!(5 2)! 2!3! 2 1 3 2 1 2
C
= = = = =
18.
8, 3
: 8, 3 C n r = =
8, 3
8! 8! 8 7 6 5!
56
3!(8 3)! 3!5! 3 2 1 5!
C
= = = =
314 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
19.
7, 7
: 7 C n r = =
7, 7
7! 7! 7!
1 (recall 0! 1)
7!(7 7)! 7!0! 7!(1)
C = = = = =
In general,
,
! ! !
1.
!( )! !0! !(1)
n n
n n n
C
n n n n n
= = = =
21. Since the order matters (first is day supervisor, second is night supervisor, and third is coordinator), this is a
permutation of 15 nurse candidates to fill three positions.
15, 3
15! 15! 15 14 13 12!
2, 730
(15 3)! 12! 12!
P
= = = =
22. Order matters here because the order of the finalists selected determines the prize awarded.
10, 3
10! 10! 10 9 8 7!
720
(10 3)! 7! 7!
P
= = = =
23. Order matters because the resulting sequence determines who wins first, second, and third place.
5, 3
5! 5! 120
60
(5 3)! 2! 2
P = = = =
24. The order of the software packages selected is irrelevant, so use the combinations method.
10, 3
10! 10! 10 9 8 7! 720
120
3!(10 3)! 3!7! 3!7! 6
C
= = = = =
25. The order of trainee selection is irrelevant, so use the combinations method.
15, 5
15! 15! 15 14 13 12 11 10! 15 14 13 12 11
3, 003
5!(15 5)! 5!10! 5!10! 5 4 3 2 1
C
= = = = =
26. The order of the problems selected is irrelevant, so use the combinations method.
(a)
12, 5
12! 12! 12 11 10 9 8 7! 12 11 10 9 8
792
5!(12 5)! 5!7! 5!7! 5 4 3 2 1
C
= = = = =
(b) Jerry must have completed the same five problems as the professor selected to grade.
P(Jerry chose the right problems)
1
0.001
792
=
(c) Silvia did seven problems, so she completed
7, 5
7! 7! 7 6 5! 7 6 42
21
5!(7 5)! 5!2! 5!2! 2 1 2
C
= = = = = =
possible subsets.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 315
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
P(Silvia picked the correct set of graded problems)
21
0.027
792
=
Silvia increased her chances by a factor of 21 compared with Jerry.
27. (a) Six applicants are selected from among 12 without regard to order.
12, 6
2
12! 479, 001, 600
924.
6!6!
(720)
C = = =
(b) This problem is asking, In how many ways can six women be selected from seven applicants?
7,6
7!
7
6! 1!
C = =
(c) P(event A)
number of favorable outcomes
total number of outcomes
=
P(all hired are women)
7 1
0.008
924 132
= =
Chapter 4 Review
1. (a) The individual does not own a cell phone.
(b) The individual owns both a cell phone and a laptop computer.
(c ) The individual owns either a cell phone or a laptop computer or both.
(d) A laptop owner who owns a cell phone.
(e) A cell phone owner who owns a laptop.
2. (a) Only if events A and B are mutually exclusive. Then P(A and B) = 0 and P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
(b) Yes, see above.
3. (a) No, unless events A and B are independent. If they are not, we need either P(A  B) or P(B  A) to
compute P(A and B).
(b) Yes, now we can compute P(A and B) = P(A) P(B).
4. The informat ion yields P(B  A) = 2. Probabilities must be between 0 and 1 inclusive. Also, P(A and B)
cannot be greater than P(A) or P(B) individually.
5. P(asked) = 24% = 0.24
P(received  asked) = 45% = 0.45
P(asked and received) = P(asked) P(received  asked) = (0.24) (0.45) = 0.108 = 10.8%
6. P(asked) = 20% = 0.20
P(received  asked) = 59% = 0.59
P(asked and received) = P(asked) P(received  asked) = (0.20) (0.59) = 0.118 = 11.8%
7. (a) Throw a large number of similar thumbtacks or one thumbtack a large number of t imes, and record the
relative frequency of the outcomes. Assume that the thumbtack falls either flat side down or t ilted. To
estimate the probability the tack lands on its flat side, find the relat ive frequency of this occurrence,
dividing the number of times this occurred by the total number of thumbtack tosses.
316 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
(b) The sample space consists of two outcomes: flat side down and tilted.
(c) P(flat side down)
340
0.68
500
= =
P(tilted) 1 0.68 0.32 = =
8. (a)
470
( ) 0.470
1000
390
( ) 0.390
1000
140
( ) 0.140
1000
P N
P M
P S
= =
= =
= =
(b) P(N  W)
420
0.840
500
= =
P(S  W)
20
0.040
500
= =
(c) P(N  A)
50
0.100
500
= =
P(S  A)
120
0.240
500
= =
(d) P(N and W) = P(W) P(N  W) = (0.50) (0.84) = 0.42
P(M and W) = P(W) P(M  W) = (0.50) (0.12) = 0.06
(e) ( or ) ( ) ( ) if mutually exclusive
470 390 860
0.860
1, 000 1, 000 1, 000
P N M P N P M = +
= + = =
No reaction is mutually exclusive from a mild react ion; they cannot occur at the same time.
(f) If N and W were independent, P(N and W) = P(N) P(W) = (0.470) (0.500) = 0.235.
However, from (d), we have P(N and W) = 0.420. They are not independent.
9. (a) Possible values for x are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.
(b) Below, the values for x are listed, along with the combinations required.
2 1 and 1 1 way
3 1 and 2, or 2 and 1 2 ways
4 1 and 3, 2 and 2, 3 and 1 3 ways
5 1 and 4, 2 and 3, 3 and 2, 4 and 1 4 ways
6 1 and 5, 2 and 4, 3 and 3, 4 and 2, 5 and 1 5 ways
7 1 and 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 6 and 1 6 ways
8 2 and 6, 3 and 5, 4 and 4, 5 and 3, 6 and 2 5 ways
9 3 and 6, 4 and 5, 5 and 4, 6 and 3 4 ways
10 4 and 6, 5 and 5, 6 and 4 3 ways
11 5 and 6, 6 and 5 2 ways
12 6 and 6 1 way
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4 317
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
x P(x) Where there are (6)(6) = 36
possible, equally likely outcomes.
(The sums, however, are not
equally
likely).
2
1
0.028
36
3
2
0.056
36
4
3
0.083
36
5
4
0.111
36
6
5
0.139
36
7
6
0.167
36
8
5
0.139
36
9
4
0.111
36
10
3
0.083
36
11
2
0.056
36
12
1
0.028
36
10. P(pass 101) = 0.77
P(pass 102  pass 101) = 0.90
P(pass 101 and pass 102) = P(pass 101) P(pass 102  pass 101) = (0.77) (0.90) = 0.693
11.
8, 2
8! 8 7 6! 56
28
2!6! (2 1)6! 2
C
= = = =
12. (a)
7, 2
7! 7!
7(6) 42
(7 2)! 5!
P = = = =
(b)
7, 2
7! 7 6
21
2!5! 2
C
= = =
(c)
3, 3
3! 3!
6
(3 3)! 0!
P = = =
(d)
4, 4
4! 4!
1
4!(4 4)! 4!0!
C = = =
13. Five multiple choice questions, each with flurossible (A, B, C, or D).
There are 4 4 4 4 4 = 1,024 possible sequences, such as A, D, B, B.
P(getting the correct sequence)
1
0.00098
1024
=
318 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 4
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All right s reserved.
14.
15. There are 10 possible numbers per turn of dial and, we turn the dial three times.
There are 10 10 10 = 1,000 possible combinations.
16. The combination uses the three numbers 2, 9, and 5, in an ordered sequence.
The number of sequences is
3, 3
3! 3 2 1
6.
(3 3)! 0!
P
= = =
The possible combinations are 259, 295, 529, 592, 925, and 952.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 327
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: The Binomial Probability Distribution and Related
Topics
Section 5.1
1. (a) The number of traffic fatalities can be only a whole number. This is a discrete random variable.
(b) Distance can assume any value, so this is a continuous random variable.
(c) Time can take on any value, so this is a continuous random variable.
(d) The number of ships can be only a whole number. This is a discrete random variable.
(e) Weight can assume any value, so this is a continuous random variable.
2. (a) Speed can assume any value, so this is a continuous random variable.
(b) Age can take on any value, so this is a continuous random variable.
(c) Number of books can be only a whole number, so this is a discrete random variable.
(d) Weight can assume any value, so this is a continuous random variable.
(e) Number of lightning strikes can be only a whole number, so this is a discrete random variable.
3. (a) ( ) 0.25 0.60 0.15 1.00 P x = + + =
Yes, this is a valid probability distribution because the sum of the probabilities is 1, each probability is
between 0 and 1 inclusive, and each event is assigned a probability.
(b) ( ) 0.25 0.60 0.20 1.05 P x = + + =
No, this is not a probability distribution because the probabilities sum to more than 1.
4. No, the expected value of a random variable x can be a value different from the exact values of x. For
example, if we have the following random variable, the expected value is = (0 0.5) + (1 0.5) = 0.50.
5. (a) Yes, seven of the ten digits are assigned to make a basket.
(b) Let S represent make a basket and F represent miss. We have
F F S S S F F F S S
(c) Yes, again, seven of the ten digits represent make a basket. We have
S S S S S S S S S S
6. (a) ( ) 0.07 0.44 0.24 0.14 0.11 1.00 P x = + + + + =
Yes, this is a valid probability distribution because the events are distinct and the probabilities sum to
1.
x 0 1
P(x) 0.5 0.5
328 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b)
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
67 56 45 34 23
50
40
30
20
10
0
11
14
24
44
7
Age of Pr omot i on Sensi t i ve Shopper s
(c) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 23 0.07 34 0.44 45 0.24 56 0.14 67 0.11
42.58
xP x =
= + + + +
=
(d) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 2 2 2 2
19.58 0.07 8.58 0.44 2.42 0.24 13.42 0.14 24.42 0.11
151.44
12.31
x P x =
= + + + +
=
7. (a) ( ) 0.21 0.14 0.22 0.15 0.20 0.08 1.00 P x = + + + + + =
Yes, this is a valid probability distribution because the events are distinct and the probabilities sum to
1.
(b)
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
60 50 40 30 20 10
25
20
15
10
5
0
8
20
15
22
14
21
Hi st ogr am of I ncome Di st r i but i on
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 329
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 10 0.21 20 0.14 30 0.22 40 0.15 50 0.20 60 0.08
32.3
xP x =
= + + + + +
=
(d) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 2 2 2 2 2
2
22.3 0.21 12.3 0.14 2.3 0.22 7.7 0.15 17.7 0.20 27.7 0.08
259.71
16.12
x P x
+ + + + +
=
=
=
8. (a) ( ) 0.057 0.097 0.195 0.292 0.250 0.091 0.018
1.000
P x = + + + + + +
=
Yes, this is a valid probability distribution because the outcomes are distinct and the probabilities sum
to 1.
(b)
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
84.5 74.5 64.5 54.5 44.5 34.5 24.5
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1.8
9.1
25
29.2
19.5
9.7
5.7
Hi st ogr am of Br i t i sh Nur se Ages
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 60 years of age or older 64.5 74.5 84.5
0.250 0.091 0.018
0.359
P P P P = + +
= + +
=
The probability is 35.9%.
(d) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
24.5 0.057 34.5 0.097 44.5 0.195 54.5 0.292
64.5 0.250 74.5 0.091 84.5 0.018
53.76
xP x =
= + + +
+ + +
=
330 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(e) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 2 2 2 2
2 2
29.26 0.057 19.26 0.097 9.26 0.195 0.74 0.292 10.74 0.250
20.74 0.091
186.65
13.66
30.74 0.018
x P x =
+ + + +
=
+
=
+
9. (a)
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
4 3 2 1 0
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
4
15
36
44
Hi st ogr am of Number of Tr out Caught
(b) ( ) ( ) 1 or more 1 0
1 0.44
0.56
P P =
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 or more 2 3 4 or more
0.15 0.04 0.01
0.20
P P P P = + +
= + +
=
(d) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 0.44 1 0.36 2 0.15 3 0.04 4 0.01
0.82
xP x =
= + + + +
=
(e) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 2 2 2 2
0.82 0.44 0.18 0.36 1.18 0.15 2.18 0.04 3.18 0.01
0.8076
0.899
x P x =
= + + + +
=
10. ( ) 1.000 P x owing to rounding.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 331
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(a) ( ) ( ) 1 or more 1 0
1 0.237
0.763
P P =
=
=
(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 or more 2 3 4 5
0.264 0.088 0.015 0.001
0.368
P P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 or more 4 5
0.015 0.001
0.016
P P P = +
= +
=
(d) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 0.237 1 0.396 2 0.264 3 0.088 4 0.015 5 0.001
1.253
xP x =
= + + + + +
=
(e) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 2 2 2
2 2
1.253 0.237 0.253 0.396 0.747 0.264 1.747 0.088
2.747 0.015 3.747 0.001
0.941
0.97
x P x =
+ + +
=
+ +
=
11. (a) ( )
( )
15
win 0.021
719
719 15 704
not win 0.979
719 719
P
P
=
= =
(b) ( ) ( ) Expected earnings = value of dinner probability of winning
15
$35
719
$0.73
 
=

\ .
Lisas expected earnings are $0.73.
Contribution $15 $0.73 $14.27 = =
Lisa effectively contributed $14.27 to the hiking club.
12. (a) ( )
( )
6
win 0.0021
2, 852
2, 852 6 2, 846
not win 0.9979
2, 852 2, 852
P
P
=
= =
(b) ( )( )
( )
Expected earnings = value of cruise probability of winning
$2, 000 0.0021
$4.20
Kevin spent 6($5) = $30 for the tickets. His expected earnings are less than the amount he paid.
Contribution $30 $4.20 $25.80 = =
Kevin effectively contributed $25.80 to the homeless center.
332 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
13. (a) ( )
( )
60 years 0.01191
Expected loss $50,000 0.01191 $595.50
P =
= =
The expected loss for Big Rock Insurance is $595.50.
(b)
Probability Expected Loss
( ) 61 0.01292 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.01292 $646 =
( ) 62 0.01396 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.01396 $698 =
( ) 63 0.01503 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.01503 $751.50 =
( ) 64 0.01613 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.01613 $806.50 =
Expected loss $595.50 $646 $698 $751.50 $806.50
$3, 497.50
= + + + +
=
The total expected loss is $3,497.50.
(c) $3,497.50 + $700 = $4,197.50
They should charge $4,197.50.
(d) $5, 000 $3, 497.50 $1, 502.50
They can expect to make $1,502.50.
=
14. (a) ( )
( )
60 years 0.00756
Expected loss $50,000 0.00756 $378
P =
= =
The expected loss for Big Rock Insurance is $378.
(b)
Probability Expected Loss
( ) 61 0.00825 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.00825 $412.50 =
( ) 62 0.00896 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.00896 $448 =
( ) 63 0.00965 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.00965 $482.50 =
( ) 64 0.01035 P = ( ) $50, 000 0.01035 $517.50 =
Expected loss $378 $412.50 $448 $482.50 $517.50
$2, 238.50
= + + + +
=
The total expected loss is $2,238.50.
(c) $2,238.50 + $700 = $2,938.50
They should charge $2,938.50.
(d) $5, 000 $2, 238.50 $2, 761.50
They can expect to make $2,761.50.
=
15. (a) W = x
1
x
2
; a = 1, b = 1
( )
1 2
1 2
2
2 2 2 2 2 2
2
115 100 15
1 1 12 8 208
208 14.4
W
W
W W
= = =
= + = + =
= =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 333
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) W = 0.5x
1
+ 0.5x
2
; a = 0.5, b = 0.5
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2
1 2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2
2
0.5 0.5 0.5 115 0.5 100 107.5
0.5 0.5 0.25 12 0.25 8 52
52 7.2
W
W
W W
= + = + =
= + = + =
= =
(c) L = 0.8x
1
2; a = 2, b = 0.8
( )
( ) ( )
1
1
2 2
2 2
2
2 0.8 2 0.8 115 90
0.8 0.64 12 92.16
92.16 9.6
L
L
L L
= + = + =
= = =
= = =
(d) L = 0.95x
2
5; a = 5, b = 0.95
( )
( ) ( )
2
2
2 2
2 2
2
5 0.95 5 0.95 100 90
0.95 0.9025 8 57.76
57.76 7.6
L
L
L L
= + = + =
= = =
= = =
16. (a) W = x
1
+ x
2
; a = 1, b = 1
( ) ( )
1 2
1 2
2 2
2 2 2
2
28.1 90.5 118.6 minutes
8.2 15.2 298.28
298.28 17.27 minutes
W
W
W W
+ = = + =
= + = + =
= =
(b) W = 1.50x
1
+ 2.75x
2
; a = 1.50, b = 2.75
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2
1 2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2
2
1.50 2.75 1.50 28.1 2.75 90.5 $291.03
1.50 2.75 2.25 8.2 7.5625 15.2 1, 898.53
1, 898.53 $43.57
W
W
W W
= + = +
= + = + =
= =
(c) L = 1.5x
1
+ 50; a = 50, b = 1.5
( )
( ) ( )
1
1
2 2
2 2
2
50 1.5 50 1.5 28.1 $92.15
1.5 2.25 8.2 151.29
151.29 $12.30
L
L
L L
= + = + =
= = =
= = =
17. (a) W = 0.5x
1
+ 0.5x
2
; a = 0.5, b = 0.5
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
1 2
1 2
2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2
0.5 0.5 0.5 50.2 0.5 50.2 50.2
0.5 0.5 0.5 11.5 0.5 11.5 66.125
66.125 8.13
W
W
W W
= + = + =
= + = + =
= =
(b) ( )
( )
1 1
Single policy : 50.2
Two policies : 50.2
W
x
W
The means are the same.
(c) ( )
( )
1 1
Single policy : 11.5
Two policies : 8.13
W
x
W
334 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
The standard deviation for the average of two policies is smaller.
(d) Yes, the risk decreases by a factor of
1
n
because
1
.
W
n
=
Section 5.2
1. The random variable counts the number of successes that occur in the n trials.
2. The outcome of one trial will not affect the probability of success of any other trial.
3. Binomial experiments have two possible outcomes, denoted success and failure.
4. In a binomial experiment, the probability of success does not change for each trial.
5. (a) No, there must be only two outcomes for each trial. Here, there are three outcomes.
(b) Yes. If we combined outcomes B and C into a single outcome, then we have a binomial experiment.
The probability of success for each trial is P(A) = p = 0.40.
6. Yes, the five trials are independent, repeated under the same conditions, and have the same two outcomes
(win or not win) and the same probability of success on each trial. Here, n = 5, p = 1/6, and r = 2
7. (a) A trial is the random selection of one student and noting whether the student is a freshman or is not a
freshman. Here, the probability of success is p = 0.40 and the probability of a failure is 1 0.40 = 0.60
(b) For a small population of size 30, sampling without replacement will alter the probability of drawing a
freshman. In this situation, the hypergeometric distribution is appropriate.
8. (a) Yes, 90% of the digits are assigned to successful surgery.
(b) S F S S S S S S S S S S S S F
(c) Yes, the assignment is fine. This simulation produces all successes.
9. A trial is one flip of a fair quarter. Success = head. Failure = tail.
3, 0.5, 1 0.5 0.5 n p q = = = =
(a) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
3 3 3
3,3
3 0
3 0.5 0.5
1 0.5 0.5
0.125
P C
=
=
=
To find this value in Table 3 of Appendix II, use the group in which n = 3, the column headed by
p = 0.5 and the row headed by r = 3.
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
2 3 2
3,2
2 1
2 0.5 0.5
3 0.5 0.5
0.375
P C
=
=
=
To find this value in Table 3 of Appendix II, use the group in which n = 3, the column headed by
p = 0.5 and the row headed by r = 2.
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 2 3
0.125 0.375
0.5
P r P P = +
= +
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 335
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(d) The probability of getting exactly three tails is the same as getting exactly zero heads.
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0 3 0
3,0
0 3
0 0.5 0.5
1 0.5 0.5
0.125
P C
=
=
=
To find this value in Table 3 of Appendix II, use the group in which n = 3, the column headed by
p = 0.5 and the row headed by r = 0.
10. A trial is answering a question on the quiz. Success = correct answer. Failure = incorrect answer.
1
5
10, 0.2, 1 0.2 0.8 n p q = = = = =
(a) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
10 10 10
10,10
10 0
10 0.2 0.8
1 0.2 0.8
0.000 (to three digits)
P C
=
=
=
(b) Answering 10 incorrectly is the same as answering 0 correctly.
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0 10 0
10,0
0 10
0 0.2 0.8
1 0.2 0.8
0.107
P C
=
=
=
(c) First method:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.268 0.302 0.201 0.088 0.026 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.892
P r P P P P P P P P P P = + + + + + + + + +
= + + + + + + + + +
=
Second method:
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.107
0.893
P r P =
=
=
The two results should be equal, but because of rounding error, they differ slightly.
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 5 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.026 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.033
P r P P P P P P = + + + + +
= + + + + +
=
11. A trial consists of determining the sex of a wolf. Success = male. Failure = female.
336 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(a) 12, 0.55, 0.45 n p q = = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.212 0.223 0.170 0.092 0.034 0.008 0.001
0.740
P r P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
= + + + + + +
=
Six or more females is the same as six or fewer males.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.000 0.001 0.007 0.028 0.076 0.149 0.212
0.473
P r P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
= + + + + + +
=
Fewer than four females is the same as more than eight males.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 8 9 10 11 12
0.092 0.034 0.008 0.001
0.135
P r P P P P > = + + +
= + + +
=
(b) 12, 0.70, 0.30 n p q = = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.079 0.158 0.231 0.240 0.168 0.071 0.014
0.961
P r P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
= + + + + + +
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.029 0.079
0.117
P r P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
= + + + + + +
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 8 9 10 11 12
0.240 0.168 0.071 0.014
0.493
P r P P P P > = + + +
= + + +
=
12. A trial is a onetime fling. Success = has done a onetime fling. Failure = has not done a onetime fling.
7, 0.10, 1 0.10 0.90 n p q = = = =
(a) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0 7 0
7,0
0 7
0 0.10 0.90
1 0.10 0.90
0.478
P C
=
=
=
(b) ( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.478
0.522
P r P =
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 0 1 2
0.478 0.372 0.124
0.974
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
13. A trial consists of a womans response regarding her motherinlaw. Success = dislike. Failure = like.
6, 0.90, 1 0.90 0.10 n p q = = = =
(a) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
6 6 6
6,6
6 0
6 0.90 0.10
1 0.90 0.10
0.531
P C
=
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 337
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0 6 0
6,0
0 6
0 0.90 0.10
1 0.90 0.10
0.000 (to 3 digits)
P C
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 4 5 6
0.098 0.354 0.531
0.983
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
(d) ( ) ( ) 3 1 4
1 0.983
0.017
P r P r =
=
From the table:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 0 1 2 3
0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015
0.016
P r P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
14. A trial is how a businessman wears a tie. Success = too tight. Failure = not too tight.
20, 0.10, 1 0.10 0.90 n p q = = = =
(a) ( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.122
0.878
P r P r = =
=
=
(b) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
2 1 2
1 0 1 2
1 0 1 2
1 0 1 2
1 1 2
0.878 0.270 0.285 using (a)
0.323
P r P r
P r P r P r
P r P r P r
P r P r P r
P r P r P r
> =
= = + = + = (
= = = =
= = = = (
= = =
=
=
(c) ( ) 0 0.122 P r = =
(d) At least 18 are not too tight is the same as at most 2 are too tight. (To see this, note that at least 18
failures is the same as 18 or 19 or 20 failures, which is 2, 1, or 0 successes, i.e., at most 2
successes.)
( ) ( ) 2 1 2
1 0.323 using (b)
0.677
P r P r = >
=
=
15. A trial consists of taking a polygraph examination. Success = pass. Failure = fail.
9, 0.85, 1 0.85 0.15 n p q = = = =
(a) ( ) 9 0.232 P =
(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 5 5 6 7 8 9
0.028 0.107 0.260 0.368 0.232
0.995
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
338 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c) ( ) ( ) 4 1 5
1 0.995
0.005
P r P r =
=
=
From the table:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 0 1 2 3 4
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.005
0.006
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
The two results should be equal, but because of rounding error, they differ slightly.
(d) All students failing is the same as no students passing.
( ) 0 0.000 (to 3 digits) P =
16. A trial consists of checking the gross receipts of the store for one business day. Success = gross over $850.
Failure = gross is at or below $850. p = 0.6, q = 1 p = 0.4.
(a) 5 n =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 3 4 5
0.346 0.259 0.078
0.683
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
(b) 10 n =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 6 7 8 9 10
0.251 0.215 0.121 0.040 0.006
0.633
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
(c) 10 n =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 5 0 1 2 3 4
0.000 0.002 0.011 0.042 0.111
0.166
P r P P P P P < = + + + +
= + + + +
=
(d) 20 n =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 0 1 2 3 4 5
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
0.001
P r P P P P P P < = + + + + +
= + + + + +
=
Yes. If p were really 0.60, then the event of a 20day period with gross income exceeding $850 fewer
than 6 days would be very rare. If it happened again, we would suspect that p = 0.60 is too high.
(e) 20 n =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 17 18 19 20
0.003 0.000 0.000
0.003
P r P P P > = + +
= + +
=
Yes. If p were really 0.60, then the event of a 20day period with gross income exceeding $850 more
than 17 days would be very rare. If it happened again, we would suspect that p = 0.60 is too low.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 339
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
17. (a) A trial consists of using the MeyersBriggs instrument to determine if a person in marketing is an
extrovert. Success = extrovert. Failure = not extrovert.
15, 0.75, 1 0.75 0.25 n p q = = = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 10 10 11 12 13 14 15
0.165 0.225 0.225 0.156 0.067 0.013
0.851
P r P P P P P P = + + + + +
= + + + + +
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 5 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.001 0.003 0.013 0.039 0.092 0.851
0.999
P r P P P P P P r = + + + + +
= + + + + +
=
( ) 15 0.013 P =
(b) A trial consists of using the MeyersBriggs instrument to determine if a computer programmer is an
introvert. Success = introvert. Failure = not introvert.
5, 0.60, 1 0.60 0.40 n p q = = = =
( ) 0 0.010 P =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 3 4 5
0.346 0.259 0.078
0.683
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
18. A trial consists of the response from adults regarding their concern that employers are monitoring phone
calls. Success = yes. Failure = no.
0.37, 1 0.37 0.63 p q = = =
(a) 5 n =
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0 5 0
5,0
0 5
0 0.37 0.63
1 0.37 0.63
0.099
P C
=
=
(b) 5 n =
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
5 5 5
5,5
5 0
5 0.37 0.63
1 0.37 0.63
0.007
P C
=
=
(c) 5 n =
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
3 5 3
5,3
3 2
3 0.37 0.63
10 0.37 0.63
0.201
P C
=
=
19. A trial consists of the response from adults regarding their concern that Social Security numbers are used
for general identification. Success = concerned that SS numbers are being used for identification.
Failure = not concerned that SS numbers are being used for identification.
8, 0.53, 1 0.53 0.47 n p q = = = =
(a) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
0.002381 0.021481 0.084781 0.191208 0.269521 0.243143
0.812515
P r P P P P P P = + + + + +
= + + + + +
=
( ) 5 0.81251 P r = from the cumulative probability is the same, truncated to 5 digits.
340 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 5 6 7 8
0.137091 0.044169 0.006726
0.187486
P r P P P > = + +
= + +
=
( ) ( ) 5 1 5
1 0.81251
0.18749
P r P r > =
=
=
Yes, this is the same result rounded to 5 digits.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 341
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
20. A trial consists of an office visit.
(a) Success visitor age is under 15 years old.
Failure visitor age is 15 years old or older.
=
=
8, 0.20, 1 0.20 0.80 n p q = = = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 4 5 6 7 8
0.046 0.009 0.001 0.000 0.000
0.056
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
(b) Success visitor age is 65 years old or older.
Failure visitor age is under 65 years old.
=
=
8, 0.25, 1 0.25 0.75 n p q = = = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 5 2 3 4 5
0.311 0.208 0.087 0.023
0.629
P r P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
(c) Success visitor age is 45 years old or older.
Failure visitor age is less than 65 years old.
=
=
8, 0.20 0.25 0.45, 1 0.45 0.55 n p q = = + = = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 5 2 3 4 5
0.157 0.257 0.263 0.172
0.849
P r P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
(d) Success visitor age is under 25 years old.
Failure visitor age is 25 years old or older.
=
=
8, 0.20 0.10 0.30, 1 0.30 0.70 n p q = = + = = =
( ) 8 0.000 (to 3 digits) P =
(e) Success visitor age is 15 years old or older.
Failure visitor age is under 15 years old.
=
=
8, 0.10 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.80, 0.20 n p q = = + + + = =
( ) 8 0.168 P =
21. (a) ( )
( )
0.30, 3 0.132
0.70, 2 0.132
p P
p P
= =
= =
They are the same.
(b) ( )
( )
0.30, 3 0.132 0.028 0.002 0.162
0.70, 2 0.002 0.028 0.132 0.162
p P r
p P r
= = + + =
= = + + =
They are the same.
(c) ( )
( )
0.30, 4 0.028
0.70, 1 0.028
1
p P
p P
r
= =
= =
=
(d) The column headed by p = 0.80 is symmetric with the one headed by p = 0.20.
22. 3, 0.0228 n p = = , q = 1 p = 0.9772
(a) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 1
2 3 2
3,2
2 3 0.0228 0.9772 0.00152 P C p q
= = =
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 0
3 3 3
3,3
3 1 0.0228 0.9772 0.00001 P C p q
= = =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 or 3 2 3 0.00153 P P P = + =
342 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
23. (a) n = 8; p = 0.65
(6 and 4 )
(6 , 4 )
(4 )
(6 )
(4 )
(6) (7) (8)
(4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
0.259 0.137 0.032
0.188 0.279 0.259 0.137 0.032
0.428
0.895
0.478
P r r
P r given r
P r
P r
P r
P P P
P P P P P
=
+ +
=
+ + + +
+ +
=
+ + + +
=
=
(b) n = 10; p = 0.65
(8 and 6 )
(8 , 6 )
(6 )
(8 )
(6 )
(8) (9) (10)
(6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
0.176 0.072 0.014
0.238 0.252 0.176 0.072 0.014
0.262
0.752
0.348
P r r
P r given r
P r
P r
P r
P P P
P P P P P
=
+ +
=
+ + + +
+ +
=
+ + + +
=
=
(c) Answers vary. Possibilities include the stock market, getting raises at work, or passing exams.
(d) Let event A = 6 r and event B = 4 r in the formula.
24. (a) n = 10; p = 0.70
(8 and 6 )
(8 , given 6 )
(6 )
(8 )
(6 )
(8) (9) (10)
(6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
0.233 0.121 0.028
0.200 0.267 0.233 0.121 0.028
0.382
0.849
0.450
P r r
P r r
P r
P r
P r
P P P
P P P P P
=
+ +
=
+ + + +
+ +
=
+ + + +
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 343
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) n = 10; p = 0.70
( 10 and 6 )
( 10, 6 )
(6 )
( 10)
(6 )
0.028
0.849
0.033
P r r
P r given r
P r
P r
P r
=
= =
=
=
=
=
Section 5.3
1. The average number of successes in n trials.
2. The expected value of the first distribution will be higher.
3. (a) Yes, 120 is more than 2.5 standard deviations above the mean.
(b) Yes, 40 is more than 2.5 standard deviations below the mean.
(c) No, the entire interval is within 2.5 standard deviations above and below the mean.
4. (a) At p = 0.50, the distribution is symmetric. The expected value is r = 5. Yes, the distribution is centered
at r = 5.
(b) The distribution is skewed right.
(c) The distribution is skewed left.
5. (a) The distribution is symmetric.
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
5 4 3 2 1 0
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.03125
0.15625
0.31250 0.31250
0.15625
0.03125
n = 5 , p = 0 . 5 0
344 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) The distribution is skewed right.
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
5 4 3 2 1 0
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.000977
0.014648
0.087891
0.263672
0.395508
0.237305
n = 5 , p = 0 . 2 5
(c) The distribution is skewed left.
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
5 4 3 2 1 0
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.237305
0.395508
0.263672
0.087891
0.014648
0.000977
n = 5 , p = 0 . 7 5
(d) The distributions are mirror images of one another.
(e) The distribution would be skewed left for p = 0.73 because p > 0.50.
6. (a) p = 0.30 goes with graph II because it is slightly skewed right.
(b) p = 0.50 goes with graph I because it is symmetric.
(c) p = 0.65 goes with graph III because it is slightly skewed left.
(d) p = 0.90 goes with graph IV because it is skewed left.
(e) The graph is approximately symmetric when p is close to 0.5. The graph is skewed left when p is close
to 1 and skewed right when p is close to 0.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 345
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
7. Minitab was used to generate the distribution.
(a) 10, 0.80 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
.
1
0
7
3
7
5
0
.
2
6
8
4
4
3
0
.
3
0
1
9
9
5
0
.
2
0
1
3
3
0
.
0
8
8
0
8
4
4
0
.
0
2
6
4
2
1
3
0
.
0
0
5
5
0
0
2
8
0
.
0
0
0
7
8
0
0
3
9
7
.
0
0
0
3
5
e

0
0
5
n = 1 0 , p = 0 . 8 0
( )
( ) ( )
10 0.8 8
10 0.8 0.2 1.26
np
npq
= = =
= =
(b) 10, 0.5 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
.
0
0
0
9
7
0
0
6
8
0
.
0
0
9
7
6
0
6
8
0
.
0
4
3
9
4
3
1
0
.
1
1
7
1
8
8
0
.
2
0
5
0
8
4
0
.
2
4
6
1
0
7
0
.
2
0
5
0
8
4
0
.
1
1
7
1
8
8
0
.
0
4
3
9
4
3
1
0
.
0
0
9
7
6
0
6
8
0
.
0
0
0
9
7
0
0
6
8
n = 1 0 , p = 0 . 5 0
346 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( )
( ) ( )
10 0.5 5
10 0.5 0.5 1.58
np
npq
= = =
= =
(c) Yes; since the graph in part (a) is skewed left, it supports the claim that more households buy film that
have children under 2 years of age than households that have no children under 21 years of age.
8. (a) 8, 0.01 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
n = 8 , p = 0 . 0 1
(b) ( ) 8 0.01 0.08 np = = =
The expected number of defective syringes the inspector will find is 0.08.
(c) The batch will be accepted if fewer than two defectives are found.
( ) ( ) ( ) 2 0 1
0.923 0.075
0.998
P r P P < = +
= +
=
(d) ( ) ( ) 8 0.01 0.99 0.281 npq = =
9. (a) 6, 0.70 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.113402
0.309278
0.329897
0.185567
0.0515464
0.0103093
n = 6 , p = 0 . 7 0
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 347
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) ( )
( ) ( )
6 0.70 4.2
6 0.70 0.30 1.122
np
npq
= = =
= =
We expect 4.2 friends to be found.
(c) Find n such that ( ) 2 0.97. P r =
Try n = 5.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 2 3 4 5
0.132 0.309 0.360 0.168
0.969
0.97
P r P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
You would have to submit five names to be 97% sure that at least two addresses will be found.
If you solve this problem as
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
2 1 2
1 0 1
1 0.002 0.028 0.97
P r P r
P r P r
= <
= = + = (
= =
the answers differ owing to rounding error in the table.
10. (a) 5, 0.85 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
5 4 3 2 1 0
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.443888
0.391784
0.138277
0.0240481
0.00200401
n = 5, p = 0.85
(b) ( )
( ) ( )
5 0.85 4.25
5 0.85 0.15 0.798
np
npq
= = =
= =
For samples of size 5, the expected number of claims made by people under 25 years of age is
about 4.
348 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
11. (a) 7, 0.20 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.00030009
0.00430129
0.0286086
0.114634
0.275283
0.36711
0.209763
n = 7 , p = 0 . 2 0
(b) ( )
( ) ( )
7 0.20 1.4
7 0.20 0.80 1.058
np
npq
= = =
= =
We expect 1.4 people to be illiterate.
(c) Let success = literate and p = 0.80.
Find n such that ( ) 7 0.98. P r =
Try n = 12.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 7 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.053 0.133 0.236 0.283 0.206 0.069
0.98
P r P P P P P P = + + + + +
= + + + + +
=
You would need to interview 12 people to be 98% sure that at least 7 of these people are not illiterate.
12. (a) 12, 0.35 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
n = 1 2 , p = 0 . 3 5
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 349
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) ( ) 12 0.35 4.2 np = = =
The expected number of vehicles out of 12 that will tailgate is 4.2.
(c) ( ) ( ) 12 0.35 0.65 1.65 npq = =
13. (a) 8, 0.25 n p = =
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
.
0
0
0
3
0
0
1
2
0
.
0
0
3
8
0
1
5
2
0
.
0
2
3
0
0
9
2
0
.
0
8
6
5
3
4
6
0
.
2
0
7
6
8
3
0
.
3
1
1
5
2
5
0
.
2
6
7
0
0
7
0
.
1
0
0
1
4
n = 8 , p = 0 . 2 5
(b) ( )
( ) ( )
8 0.25 2
8 0.25 0.75 1.225
np
npq
= = =
= =
We expect two people to believe that the product is actually improved.
(c) Find n such that ( ) 1 0.99. P r =
Try n = 16.
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.01
0.99
P r P =
=
=
Sixteen people are needed in the marketing study to be 99% sure that at least one person believes the
product to be improved.
14. p = 0.10
Find n such that ( ) 1 0.90 P r =
From a calculator or a computer, we determine n = 22 gives P(r 1) = 0.9015.
15. (a) Since success = not a repeat offender, then p = 0.75.
r 0 1 2 3 4
P(r) 0.004 0.047 0.211 0.422 0.316
350 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
4 3 2 1 0
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.317269
0.422691
0.210843
0.0461847
0.00301205
n = 4, p = 0.75
(c) ( ) 4 0.75 3 np = = =
We expect three parolees to not repeat offend.
( ) ( ) 4 0.75 0.25 0.866 npq = =
(d) Find n such that
( ) 3 0.98 P r =
Try n = 7.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 3 4 5 6 7
0.058 0.173 0.311 0.311 0.133
0.986
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
This is slightly higher than needed, but n = 6 yields P(r 3) = 0.963.
Alice should have a group of seven to be about 98% sure that three or more will not become repeat
offenders.
16. (a) p = 0.65
Find n such that
( ) 1 0.98 P r =
Try n = 4.
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.015
0.985
P r P =
=
=
Four stations are required to be 98% certain that an enemy plane flying over will be detected by at least
one station.
(b) n = 4, p = 0.65
( ) 4 0.65 2.6 np = = =
If four stations are in use, we expect 2.6 stations to detect an enemy plane.
17. (a) Let success = available, then p = 0.75, n = 12. ( ) 12 0.032. P =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 351
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) Let success = not available, then p = 0.25, n = 12.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.040 0.011 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.053
P r P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
= + + + + + +
=
(c) n = 12, p = 0.75
( ) 12 0.75 9 np = = =
The expected number of those available to serve on the jury is nine.
( ) ( ) 12 0.75 0.25 1.5 npq = = =
(d) p = 0.75
Find n such that ( ) 12 0.959. P r =
Try n = 20.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
0.061 0.112 0.169 0.202 0.190 0.134 0.067 0.021 0.003
0.959
P r P P P P P P P P P = + + + + + + + +
= + + + + + + + +
=
The jury commissioner must contact 20 people to be 95.9% sure of finding at least 12 people who are
available to serve.
18. (a) Let success = emergency, then p = 0.15, n = 4. ( ) 4 0.001. P =
(b) Let success = not emergency, then p = 0.85, n = 4.
( ) ( ) ( ) 3 3 4
0.368 0.522
0.890
P r P P = +
= +
=
(c) p = 0.15
Find n such that ( ) 1 0.96. P r =
Try n = 20.
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.039
0.961
P r P =
=
=
The operators need to answer 20 calls to be 96% (or more) sure that at least one call was in fact an
emergency.
19. Let success = case solved, then p = 0.2, n = 6.
(a) ( ) 0 0.262 P =
(b) ( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.262
0.738
P r P =
=
=
(c) ( ) 6 0.20 1.2 np = = =
The expected number of crimes that will be solved is 1.2.
( ) ( ) 6 0.20 0.80 0.98 npq = =
352 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(d) Find n such that ( ) 1 0.90. P r =
Try n = 11.
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.086
0.914
P r P =
=
=
[ : For 10, ( 1) 0.893.] Note n P r = =
The police must investigate 11 property crimes before they can be at least 90% sure of solving one or
more cases.
20. (a) p = 0.55
Find n such that ( ) 1 0.99. P r =
Try n = 6.
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.008
0.992
P r P =
=
=
Six alarms should be used to be 99% certain that a burglar trying to enter is detected by at least one
alarm.
(b) 9, 0.55 n p = =
( ) 9 0.55 4.95 np = = =
The expected number of alarms that would detect a burglar is about five.
21. (a) Japan: n = 7, p = 0.95.
( ) 7 0.698 P =
United States: n = 7, p = 0.60.
( ) 7 0.028 P =
(b) Japan: n = 7, p = 0.95.
( )
( ) ( )
7 0.95 6.65
7 0.95 0.05 0.58
np
npq
= = =
= =
United States: n = 7, p = 0.60.
( )
( ) ( )
7 0.60 4.2
7 0.60 0.40 1.30
np
npq
= = =
= =
The expected number of guilty verdicts in Japan is 6.65, and in the United States it is 4.2.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 353
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c) United States: p = 0.60.
Find n such that ( ) 2 0.99. P r =
Try n = 8.
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
2 1 0 1
1 0.001 0.008
0.991
P r P P = + (
= +
=
Japan: p = 0.95.
Find n such that ( ) 2 0.99. P r =
Try n = 3.
( ) ( ) ( ) 2 2 3
0.135 0.857
0.992
P r P P = +
= +
=
Cover eight trials in the United States and three trials in Japan.
22. 6, 0.45 n p = =
(a) ( ) 6 0.008 P =
(b) ( ) 0 0.028 P =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 2 3 4 5 6
0.278 0.303 0.186 0.061 0.008
0.836
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
(d) ( ) 6 0.45 2.7 np = = =
The expected number is 2.7.
( ) ( ) 6 0.45 0.55 1.219 npq = =
(e) Find n such that ( ) 3 0.90. P r =
Try n = 10.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( )
3 1 0 1 2
1 0.003 0.021 0.076
1 0.100
0.900
P r P P P = + + (
= + +
=
=
You need to interview 10 professors to be at least 90% sure of filling the quota.
23. (a) p = 0.40
Find n such that ( ) 1 0.99. P r =
Try n = 9.
( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.010
0.990
P r P =
=
=
The owner must answer nine inquiries to be 99% sure of renting at least one room.
(b) n = 25, p = 0.40
( ) 25 0.40 10 np = = =
The expected number is 10 room rentals.
354 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
24. (a) Out of n trials, there can be 0 through n successes. The sum of the probabilities for all members of the
sample space must be 1.
(b) r 1 consists of all members of the sample space except r = 0.
(c) r 2 consists of all members of the sample space except r = 0 and r = 1.
(d) r m consists of all members of the sample space except for r values between 0 and m 1.
Section 5.4
1. The geometric distribution
2. The mean or expected value, denoted by .
3. No, since the approximation requires n 100.
4. Yes. We have np = 150 0.02 = 3 10 and n = 100 10.
5. (a) Geometric probability distribution, p = 0.77.
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1
1
1
0.77 0.23
n
n
P n p p
P n
=
=
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
1 1
0
1 0.77 0.23
0.77 0.23
0.77
P
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
2 1
1
2 0.77 0.23
0.77 0.23
0.1771
P
=
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 or more tries 1 1 2
1 0.77 0.1771
0.0529
P P P =
=
=
(e)
1 1
1.29
0.77
p
= =
The expected number is 1.29, or 1, attempt to pass.
6. (a) Geometric probability distribution, p = 0.57.
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1
1
1
0.57 0.43
n
n
P n p p
P n
=
=
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
2 1
1
2 0.57 0.43
0.57 0.43
0.2451
P
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
3 1
2
3 0.57 0.43
0.57 0.43
0.1054
P
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 355
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) more than 3 attempts 1 1 2 3
1 0.57 0.2451 0.1054
0.0795
P P P P =
=
=
(e)
1 1
1.75
0.57 p
= =
The expected number is 1.75, or 2, attempts to pass.
7. (a) Geometric probability distribution, p = 0.80.
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1
1
1
0.80 0.20
n
n
P n p p
P n
=
=
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1 1
2 1
3 1
1 0.80 0.20 0.80
2 0.80 0.20 0.16
3 0.80 0.20 0.032
P
P
P
= =
= =
= =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 1 1 2 3
1 0.80 0.16 0.032
0.008
P n P P P =
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1
1 1
2 1
3 1
0.04 0.96
1 0.04 0.96 0.04
2 0.04 0.96 0.0384
3 0.04 0.96 0.0369
n
P n
P
P
P
=
= =
= =
= =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 1 1 2 3
1 0.04 0.0384 0.0369
0.8847
P n P P P =
=
=
8. (a) Geometric probability distribution, p = 0.36.
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1
1
1
0.036 0.964
n
n
P n p p
P n
=
=
(b) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( )( )
( ) ( )( )
3 1
5 1
12 1
3 0.036 0.964 0.03345
5 0.036 0.964 0.0311
12 0.036 0.964 0.0241
P
P
P
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 3
5 1 1 2 3 4
1 0.036 0.036 0.964 0.036 0.964 0.036 0.964
1 0.036 0.0347 0.03345 0.03225
0.8636
P n P P P P =
=
=
=
(d)
1 1
27.8
0.036 p
= =
The expected number is 27.8, or 28, apples.
356 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
9. (a) Geometric probability distribution, p = 0.30.
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1
1
1
0.30 0.70
n
n
P n p p
P n
=
=
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 1
3 0.30 0.70 0.147 P
= =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
3 1 1 2 3
1 0.30 0.30 0.70 0.147
1 0.30 0.21 0.147
0.343
P n P P P > =
=
=
=
(d)
1 1
3.33
0.30 p
= = =
The expected number is 3.33, or 3, trips.
10. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because finding prehistoric artifacts is a relatively
rare occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of artifacts found in a fixed amount of sediment.
1.5 5 7.5
; 7.5 per 50 liters
10 L 5 50 L
= = =
( )
( )
( )
7.5
!
7.5
!
r
r
e
P r
r
e
P r
r
=
=
(b) ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
2
7.5
3
7.5
4
7.5
7.5
2 0.0156
2!
7.5
3 0.0389
3!
7.5
4 0.0729
4!
e
P
e
P
e
P
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0006 0.0041 0.0156
0.9797
P r P P P =
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 0 1 2
0.0006 0.0041 0.0156
0.0203
P r P P P < = + +
= + +
=
or
( ) ( ) 3 1 3
1 0.9797
0.0203
P r P r < =
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 357
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
11. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of initiating social grooming is a
relatively rare occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the
variable is the number of times that one otter initiates social grooming in a fixed time interval.
1.7 3 5.1
; 5.1 per 30min interval
10 min 3 30 min
= = =
( )
( )
( )
5.1
!
5.1
!
r
r
e
P r
r
e
P r
r
=
=
(b) ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
4
5.1
5
5.1
6
5.1
5.1
4 0.1719
4!
5.1
5 0.1753
5!
5.1
6 0.1490
6!
e
P
e
P
e
P
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 1 0 1 2 3
1 0.0061 0.0311 0.0793 0.1348
0.7487
P r P P P P =
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 0 1 2 3
0.0061 0.0311 0.0793 0.1348
0.2513
P r P P P P < = + + +
= +
=
or
( ) ( ) 4 1 4
1 0.7487
0.2513
P r P r < =
=
=
12. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of shoplifting is a relatively rare
occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of incidents in a fixed time interval.
11 11
3 3
11
3
1 11
; 3.7 per 11 hours
3 hours 11 hours 3
= = = (rounded to nearest tenth)
(b) ( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.0247
0.9753
P r P =
=
=
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0247 0.0915 0.1692
0.7146
P r P P P =
=
=
(d) ( ) 0 0.0247 P =
358 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
13. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of births is a relatively rare
occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of births (or deaths) for a community of a given population size.
(b) For 1,000 people, 16 births; 8 deaths. = =
By Table 4 in Appendix II:
( )
( )
( )
( )
10 births 0.0341
10 deaths 0.0993
16 births 0.0992
16 deaths 0.0045
P
P
P
P
=
=
=
=
(c) For 1,500 people,
16 1.5 24
; 24 births per 1,500 people
1, 000 1.5 1, 500
= = =
8 1.5 12
; 12 deaths per 1500 people
1000 1.5 1500
= = =
By Table 4 in Appendix II or a calculator:
( )
( )
( )
( )
10 births 0.00066
10 deaths 0.1048
16 births 0.02186
16 deaths 0.0543
P
P
P
P
=
=
=
=
(d) For 750 people,
16 0.75 12
; 12 births per 750 people
1, 000 0.75 750
8 0.75 6
; 6 deaths per 750 people
1, 000 0.75 750
= = =
= = =
( )
( )
( )
( )
10 births 0.1048
10 deaths 0.0413
16 births 0.0543
16 deaths 0.0003
P
P
P
P
=
=
=
=
14. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of hairline cracks is a relatively
rare occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of hairline cracks for a given length of retaining wall.
(b)
5
3
5
3
4.2 7
; 7 per 50 ft
30 ft 50 ft
= = =
From Table 4 in Appendix II:
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 0.0521
3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0009 0.0064 0.0223
0.9704
P
P r P P P
=
=
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 359
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c)
2
3
2
3
4.2 2.8
30 ft 20 ft
2.8 per 20 ft
= =
=
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 0.2225
3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0608 0.1703 0.2384
0.5305
P
P r P P P
=
=
=
=
(d)
1
15
1
15
4.2 0.28
30 ft 2 ft
0.3 per 2 ft
= =
=
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 0.0033
3 1 0 1 2
1 0.7408 0.2222 0.0333
0.0037
P
P r P P P
=
=
=
=
(e) Three hairline cracks spread out evenly over a 50foot section is no cause for concern. For part (c), we
expect 2.8 cracks per 20 feet, so actually having 3 cracks is nothing unusual. For part (d), actually
having 3 cracks is unusual and a cause for concern.
15. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of galeforce winds is a relatively
rare occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of galeforce winds in a given time interval.
(b)
1 1.8 1.8
; 1.8 per 108 hours
60 hours 1.8 108 hours
= = =
From Table 4 in Appendix II:
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
2 0.2678
3 0.1607
4 0.0723
2 0 1
0.1653 0.2975
0.4628
P
P
P
P r P P
=
=
=
< = +
= +
=
(c)
1 3 3
; 3 per 180 hours
60 hours 3 180 hours
= = =
P(3) = 0.2240
P(4) = 0.1680
P(5) = 0.1008
P(r < 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 0.0498 + 0.1494 + 0.2240 = 0.4232
360 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
16. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of earthquakes is a relatively rare
occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of earthquakes in a given time interval.
(b)
( )
1.00 per 22 years
1 0.6321 P r
=
=
(c)
( )
1.00 per 22 years
0 0.3679 P
=
=
(d)
( )
25
11
25
11
1 2.27
; 2.27 per 50 years
22 years 50 years
1 0.8967 P r
= =
=
(e)
( )
2.27 per 50 years
0 0.1033 P
=
=
17. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of commercial building sales is a
relatively rare occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and the variable is
the number of buildings sold in a given time interval.
(b)
12 96
55 55
12
55
8 96
; 1.7 per 60 days
275 days 60 days 55
= =
From Table 4 in Appendix II:
( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.1827
1 0.3106
2 1 0 1
1 0.1827 0.3106
0.5067
P
P
P r P P
=
=
=
=
=
(c)
18
55
18
55
8 2.6
; 2.6 per 90 days
275 days 90 days
=
( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.0743
2 0.2510
3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0743 0.1931 0.2510
0.4816
P
P
P r P P P
=
=
=
=
=
18. (a) The problem satisfies the conditions for a binomial experiment with
( )
661
100,000
large, 316, and small, 0.00661.
316 0.00661 2.1 10.
n n p p
np
= = =
= <
The Poisson distribution would be a good approximation to the binomial.
316, 0.00661, 2.1 n p np = = =
(b) From Table 4 in Appendix II, ( ) 0 0.1225. P =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 361
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 0 1
0.1225 0.2572
0.3797
P r P P = +
= +
=
(d) ( ) ( ) 2 1 1
1 0.3797
0.6203
P r P r =
=
=
19. (a) The problem satisfies the conditions for a binomial experiment with
( )
1
569
large, 1000, and small, 0.0018.
1000 0.0018 1.8 10.
n n p p
np
= =
= <
The Poisson distribution would be a good approximation to the binomial.
1.8 np =
(b) From Table 4 in Appendix II, ( ) 0 0.1653. P =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 1 0 1
1 0.1653 0.2975
0.5372
P r P P > =
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 1 2
0.5372 0.2678
0.2694
P r P r P > = >
=
=
(e) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 2 3
0.2694 0.1607
0.1087
P r P r P > = >
=
=
20. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of lost bags is a relatively rare
occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and the variable is the number of
bags lost per 1,000 passengers.
6.02 or 6.0 per 1,000 passengers =
(b) From Table 4 in Appendix II,
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.0025
3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0025 0.0149 0.0446
0.9380
P
P r P P P
=
=
=
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 6 3 3 4 5
0.9380 0.0892 0.1339 0.1606
0.5543
P r P r P P P =
=
=
(c) 13.0 per 1,000 passengers =
( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0 0.000 (to 3 digits)
6 1 5
1 0.0107
0.9893
12 1 11
1 0.3532
0.6468
P
P r P r
P r P r
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
362 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
21. (a) The problem satisfies the conditions for a binomial experiment with n large, n = 175, and p small,
p = 0.005. np = (175)(0.005) = 0.875 < 10. The Poisson distribution would be a good approximation to
the binomial. n = 175, p = 0.005, = np = 0.9.
(b) From Table 4 in Appendix II, ( ) 0 0.4066. P =
(c) ( ) ( ) 1 1 0
1 0.4066
0.5934
P r P =
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 1 1
0.5934 0.3659
0.2275
P r P r P =
=
=
22. (a) The problem satisfies the conditions for a binomial experiment with n large, n = 137, and p small,
p = 0.02. np = (137)(0.02) = 2.74 < 10. The Poisson distribution would be a good approximation to the
binomial. n = 175, p = 0.02, = np = 2.74 2.7.
(b) From Table 4 in Appendix II, ( ) 0 0.0672. P =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 1 0 1
1 0.0672 0.1815
0.7513
P r P P =
=
=
(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 2 2 3
0.7513 0.2450 0.2205
0.2858
P r P r P P =
=
=
23. (a) n = 100, p = 0.02, r = 2
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
,
2 100 2
100,2
1
2 0.02 0.98
4950 0.0004 0.1381
0.2734
n r
r
n r
P r C p p
P C
=
=
=
=
(b) ( ) 100 0.02 2 np = = =
From Table 4 in Appendix II, ( ) 2 0.2707. P =
(c) Yes, the approximation is correct to two decimal places.
(d) n = 100; p = 0.02; r = 3
By the formula for the binomial distribution,
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
3 100 3
100,3
3 0.02 0.98
161,700 0.000008 0.1409
0.1823
P C
=
=
=
By the Poisson approximation, = 3, P(3) = 0.1804. This is correct to two decimal places.
24. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because frequency of fish caught is a relatively rare
occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of fish caught in the 8hour period.
0.667 8 5.3
1 8 8
5.3 fish caught per 8 hours
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 363
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b)
( 7 and 3)
( 7, given 3)
( 3)
( 7)
( 3)
( 7)
1 ( 2)
0.1163 0.0771 0.0454 0.0241 0.0116 0.0051 0.0021
0.0008 0.0003 0.0001
1 (0.0050 0.0265 0.0701)
0.2829
0.8984
0.3149
P r r
P r r
P r
P r
P r
P r
P r
=
=
+ + + + + +
+ + +
=
+ +
=
(c)
( 9 and 4)
( 9, given 4)
( 4)
( 4) ( 5) ( 6) ( 7) ( 8)
1 ( 3)
0.1641 0.1740 0.1537 0.1163 0.0771
1 (0.0050 0.0265 0.0701 0.1239)
0.6852
0.7745
0.8847
P r r
P r r
P r
P r P r P r P r P r
P r
<
< =
= + = + = + = + =
=
+ + + +
=
+ + +
=
(d) Possibilities include the fields agriculture, the military, and business.
25. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because hail storms in western Kansas are relatively
rare occurrences. It is reasonable to assume that the events are independent and that the variable is the
number of hailstorms in a fixedsquaremile area.
( )
8 8
5 5
8
5
2.1
2.1 3.4
5 8 8
= =
3.4 storms per 8 square miles =
(b)
( 4 and 2)
( 4, given 2)
( 2)
( 4)
( 2)
1 ( 3)
1 ( 1)
1 (0.0334 0.1135 0.1929 0.2186)
1 (0.0334 0.1135)
0.4416
0.8531
0.5176
P r r
P r r
P r
P r
P r
P r
P r
=
=
+ + +
=
+
=
=
364 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c)
( 6 and 3)
( 6, given 3)
( 3)
( 3) ( 4) ( 5)
1 ( 2)
0.2186 0.1858 0.1264
1 (0.0334 0.1135 0.1929)
0.5308
0.6602
0.8040
P r r
P r r
P r
P r P r P r
P r
<
< =
= + = + =
=
+ +
=
+ +
=
=
26. (a)
1, 1
4 4
1, 3
( )
( ) (0.65 )(0.35 )
k n k
n k
n
n
P n C p q
P n C
=
=
(b)
4 0
3, 3
(4) (0.65 )(0.35 ) 0.1785 P C =
4 1
4, 3
(5) (0.65 )(0.35 ) 0.2499 P C =
4 2
5, 3
(6) (0.65 )(0.35 ) 0.2187 P C =
4 2
6, 3
(7) (0.65 )(0.35 ) 0.1531 P C =
(c) (4 7) (4) (5) (6) (7)
0.1785 0.2499 0.2187 0.1531
0.8002
P n P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
(d) ( 8) 1 ( 7)
1 (4 7)
1 0.8002
0.1998
P n P n
P n
=
=
=
=
(e)
4
6.15
0.65
k
p
= =
4(0.35)
1.82
0.65
kq
p
= =
The expected year in which the fourth successful crop occurs is 6.15, with a standard deviation of
1.82.
27. (a) We have binomial trials for which the probability of success is p = 0.80 and failure is q = 0.20; k = 12
is a fixed whole number 1; n is a random variable representing the number of contacts needed to get
the twelfth sale.
1, 1
12 12
1, 11
( )
( ) (0.80 )(0.20 )
k n k
n k
n
n
P n C p q
P n C
=
=
(b)
12 0
11, 11
(12) (0.80 )(0.20 ) 0.0687 P C =
12 1
12, 11
(13) (0.80 )(0.20 ) 0.1649 P C =
12 2
13, 11
(14) (0.80 )(0.20 ) 0.2144 P C =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 365
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(c) (12 14) (12) (13) (14)
0.0687 0.1649 0.2144
0.4480
P n P P P = + +
= + +
=
(d) ( 14) 1 ( 14)
1 (12 14)
1 0.4480
0.5520
P n P n
P n
> =
=
=
=
(e)
12
15
0.80
k
p
= = =
12(0.20)
1.94
0.80
kq
p
= =
The expected contact in which the twelfth sale will occur is the fifteenth contact, with a standard
deviation of 1.94.
28. (a) We have binomial trials for which the probability of success is p = 0.41 and failure is q = 0.59; k = 3 is
a fixed whole number 1; and n is a random variable representing the number of donors needed to
provide 3 pints of type A blood.
1, 1
3 3
1, 2
( )
( ) (0.41 )(0.59 )
k n k
n k
n
n
P n C p q
P n C
=
=
(b)
3 0
2, 2
(3) (0.41 )(0.59 ) 0.0689 P C =
3 1
3, 2
(4) (0.41 )(0.59 ) 0.1220 P C =
3 2
4, 2
(5) (0.41 )(0.59 ) 0.1439 P C =
3 3
5, 2
(6) (0.41 )(0.59 ) 0.1415 P C =
(c) (3 6) (3) (4) (5) (6)
0.0689 0.1220 0.1439 0.1415
0.4763
P n P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
(d) ( 6) 1 ( 6)
1 (3 6)
1 0.4763
0.5237
P n P n
P n
> =
=
=
=
(e)
3(0.59) 3
7.32; 3.24
0.41 0.41
kq k
p p
= = = =
The expected number of donors in which the third pint of blood type A is acquired is 7.32, with a
standard deviation of 3.24.
29. (a) This is binomial with n 1 trials and probability of success p. Thus we use the binomial probability
distribution:
1 1 ( 1)
1, 1
( ) *
k n k
n k
P A C p q
=
(b) P(B) = success on one trial, namely, the nth trial = p (by definition).
(c) By the definition of independent trials, P(A and B) = P(A) P(B).
366 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(d) P(A and B) =
1 1 ( 1)
1, 1
1, 1
k n k
n k
k n k
n k
C p q p
C p q
(e) The results are the same.
Chapter 5 Review
1. A description of all the values of a random variable x, the associated probabilities for each value of x, the
summation of the probabilities equal 1, and each probability takes on values between 0 and 1 inclusive.
2. The criteria: a fixed number of trials that are repeated under identical conditions; the trials are independent
and have exactly two possible outcomes; and the probability of success on each trial is constant. The
random variable counts the number of successes r in n trials.
3. (a) Yes, we expect np = 10 0.2 = 2 successes. The standard deviation is = 1.26, so the boundary is
2 + (2.5) (1.26) = 5.15. Thus six successes is unusual.
(b) No, P(x > 5) = 0.0064 (using a TI83 calculator).
4. As the number of trials n increases, = np will increase, and npq = also will increase.
5. (a) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 18.5 0.127 30.5 0.371 42.5 0.285 54.5 0.215 66.5 0.002
37.628
37.63
xP x =
= + + + +
=
The expected lease term is about 38 months.
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 2 2 2 2
19.13 0.127 7.13 0.371 4.87 0.285 16.87 0.215 28.87 0.002
134.95
11.6 (using 37.63 in the calculations)
x P x
=
= + + + +
=
(b)
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 367
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
66.5 54.5 42.5 30.5 18.5
40
30
20
10
0
Hi st ogr am of Lengt h of Lease
6. (a)
Number Killed
by Wolves
Relative
P(x)
112 112/296 0.378
53 53/296 0.179
73 73/296 0.247
56 56/296 0.189
2 2/296 0.007
(b) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0.5 0.378 3 0.179 8 0.247 13 0.189 18 0.007
5.28 years
xP x =
= + + + +
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 2 2 2 2
4.78 0.378 2.28 0.179 2.72 0.247 7.72 0.189 12.72 0.007
23.8
4.88 years
x P x =
= + + + +
=
7. This is a binomial experiment with 10 trials. A trial consists of a claim.
Success submitted by a male under 25 years of age.
Failure not submitted by a male under 25 years of age.
=
=
(a) The probabilities can be taken directly from Table 3 in Appendix II: n = 10, p = 0.55.
368 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
.0
0
2
5
0
1
2
5
0
.0
2
0
7
1
0
4
0
.
0
7
6
3
3
8
2
0
.1
6
6
4
8
3
0
.2
3
8
4
1
9
0
.2
3
4
1
1
7
0
.1
5
9
5
8
0
.
0
7
4
6
3
7
3
0
.0
2
2
8
1
1
4
0
. 0
0
4
1
0
2
0
5
0
.0
0
0
3
0
0
1
5
Hi st ogr am of Cl ai ms ( Mal es under 25)
(b) P(x 6) = P(6) + P(7) + P(8) + P(9) + P(10) = 0.504
(c) ( ) 10 0.55 5.5 np = = =
The expected number of claims made by males under age 25 is 5.5.
( ) ( ) 10 0.55 0.45 1.57 npq = =
8. (a) n = 20, p = 0.05
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 0 1 2
0.358 0.377 0.189
0.924
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
(b) n = 20, p = 0.15
Probability accepted:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 0 1 2
0.039 0.137 0.229
0.405
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
Probability not accepted:
1 0.405 0.595 =
9. n = 16, p = 0.50
(a) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 12 12 13 14 15 16
0.028 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000
0.039
P r P P P P P = + + + +
= + + + +
=
(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.000 0.000 0.002 0.009 0.028 0.067 0.122 0.175
0.403
P r P P P P P P P P = + + + + + + +
= + + + + + + +
=
(c) ( ) 16 0.50 8 np = = =
The expected number of inmates serving time for dealing drugs is eight.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 369
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
10. n = 200, p = 0.80
( ) 200 0.80 160 np = = =
We expect 160 flights to arrive on time.
( ) ( ) 200 0.80 0.20 5.66 npq = =
The standard deviation is 5.66 flights.
11. n = 10, p = 0.75
(a) The probabilities can be obtained directly from Table 3 in Appendix II.
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Hi st ogr am of Good Gr apef r ui t
(b) No more than one is bad is the same event as at least nine are good.
( ) ( ) ( ) 9 9 10
0.188 0.056
0.244
P r P P = +
= +
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.000 0.000 0.003 0.016 0.058 0.146 0.250 0.282 0.188 0.056
0.999
P r P P P P P P P P P P = + + + + + + + + +
= + + + + + + + + +
=
(c) ( ) 10 0.75 7.5 np = = =
We expect 7.5 good grapefruits.
(d) ( ) ( ) 10 0.75 0.25 1.37 npq = =
12. Let success = show up, then p = 0.95, n = 82.
( ) 82 0.95 77.9 np = = =
If 82 party reservations have been made, 77.9, or about 78, can be expected to show up.
( ) ( ) 82 0.95 0.05 1.97 npq = =
13. p = 0.85, n = 12
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 0 1 2
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 (to 3 digits)
P r P P P = + +
= + +
=
The data seem to indicate that the percent favoring the increase in fees is less than 85%.
370 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
14. Let success = do not default, then p = 0.50.
Find n such that ( ) 5 0.941. P r =
Try n = 15.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( )
5 1 0 1 2 3 4
1 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.014 0.042
1 0.059
0.941
P r P P P P P = + + + + (
= + + + +
=
=
You should buy 15 bonds if you want to be 94.1% sure that 5 or more will not default.
15. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because coughs are a relatively rare occurrence. It is
reasonable to assume that they are independent events, and the variable is the number of coughs in a
fixed time interval.
(b) 11 per 1 minute =
From Table 4 in Appendix II,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 0 1 2 3
0.0000 0.0002 0.0010 0.0037
0.0049
P r P P P P = + + +
= + + +
=
(c)
11 0.5 5.5
; 5.5 per 30 seconds
60 seconds 0.5 30 seconds
= = =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 1 0 1 2
1 0.0041 0.0225 0.0618
0.9116
P r P P P =
=
=
16. (a) The Poisson distribution would be a good choice because number of accidents is a relatively rare
occurrence. It is reasonable to assume that they are independent events, and the variable is the number
of accidents for a given number of operations.
(b) 2.4 per 100,000 flight operations =
From Table 4 in Appendix II, ( ) 0 0.0907. P =
(c)
2.4 2 4.8
100,000 2 200,000
4.8 per 200,000 flight operations.
= =
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 1 0 1 2 3
1 0.0082 0.0395 0.0948 0.1517
0.7058
P r P P P P =
=
=
17. The loandefault problem satisfies the conditions for a binomial experiment. Moreover, p is small, n is
large, and np < 10. Using the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution is appropriate.
( )
1
300, 0.0029, 300 0.0029 0.86 0.9
350
n p np = = = = =
From Table 4 in Appendix II,
( ) ( ) ( ) 2 1 0 1
1 0.4066 0.3659
0.2275
P r P P =
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 5 371
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
18. This problem satisfies the conditions for a binomial experiment. Moreover, p is small, n is large, and
np < 10. Using the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution is appropriate.
n = 482,
551
0.00551
100, 000
p = =
= np = 482(0.00551) 2.7
(a) P(0) = 0.0672
(b) ( 1) 1 (0)
1 0.0672
0.9328
P r P =
=
=
(c) ( 2) 1 ( 1)
1 (0.0672 0.1815)
0.7513
P r P r =
= +
=
19. (a) Use the geometric distribution with p = 0.5.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 P n = = = =
P(n = 3) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.125
P(n = 4) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.0625
This is the geometric probability distribution with p = 0.5.
(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 4
2 3 4
4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0625
4 1 1 2 3 4
1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.0625
P
P n P P P P
= = =
> =
=
=
20. (a) Use the geometric distribution with p = 0.83.
( ) ( ) ( )
1 1
1 0.83 0.17 0.83 P
= =
(b) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
2 1
3 1
2 0.83 0.17 0.1411
3 0.83 0.17 0.0240
2 or 3 0.1411 0.0240 0.165
P
P
P
= =
= =
= +
Normal Distributions (Page 1 of 23)
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution
x
Important Properties of a Normal Curve
1. The curve is bellshaped with the highest point over the mean
.
2. It is symmetric about the vertical line through .
3. The curve approaches the horizontal axis but never crosses or
touches it.
4. The transition points (TP) are where the graph changes from
cupping upward to cupping downward (or visa versa). The
transition points occur at
x = + and
x = .
5. The total area under the curve is 1.
Guided Exercise 2
a. Which point (A, B or C)
corresponds to + ?
b. Which point (A, B or C)
corresponds to
2 ?
c. What is the mean and standard deviation of the distribution?
6 8 10 12 14
A B C
x
Normal Curve aka
Probability Density Function
xaxis
TP TP
+
Normal Distributions (Page 2 of 23)
Example A
The mean affects the location of the curve and the standard
deviation affects the shape (spread) of the curve.
QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
C
D
Same Mean &
Different Standard Deviations
Which curve has
the larger mean?
Which curve has
the larger
standard
deviation?
A B
Same Standard Deviation
& Different Means
Normal Distributions (Page 3 of 23)
Guided Exercise 1
Determine whether each curve
is normal or not. If it is not,
then state why.
Empirical Rule for a Normal Distribution
a. Approximately 68.2% of the data will lie within 1 standard
deviation of the mean.
b. Approximately 95.4% of the data will lie within 2 standard
deviations of the mean.
c. Approximately 99.7% of the data will lie within 3 standard
deviations of the mean.
d. The area under the curve represents the probability and the
total area under the curve is 1.
Empirical Rule
QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
68.2%
13.6%
2.15%
13.6%
2.15%
0.15% 0.15%
+ 3 3
2
+
+ 2
xaxis
Normal Distributions (Page 4 of 23)
Example 1
The playing life of a Sunshine radio is normally distributed with a
mean of 600 hours and a standard deviation of 100 hours.
a. Sketch a normal curve showing the
distribution of the playing life of the
Sunshine radio. Scale and label the axis;
include the transition points.
Use the empirical rule to find the probability
that a randomly selected radio will last
b. between 600 and 700 hours?
c. between 400 and 500 hours
d. greater than 700 hours?
Normal Distributions (Page 5 of 23)
Guided Exercise 4
The annual wheat yield per acre on a farm is normally distributed
with a mean of 35 bushels and a standard deviation of 8 bushels.
a. Sketch a normal curve and shadein the
area that represents the probability that
an acre will yield between 19 and 35
bushels.
b. Is the shaded area the same as the area between
2 and
? Use the empirical rule to find the probability that the yield
will be between 19 and 35 bushels per acre?
Control Charts
A control chart for a random variable x that is approximately
normally distributed is a plot of observed x values in time sequence
order. The construction is as follows:
1. Find the mean and standard deviation of the x
distribution in one of two ways:
(i) Use past data from a period during which the process was
in control or
(ii) Use a specified target value of and .
2. Create a graph where the vertical axis represents the x values
and the horizontal axis represents time.
3. Draw a solid horizontal line at height and horizontal dashed
controllimit lines at 2 and 3 .
4. Plot the variable x on the graph in time sequence order.
Normal Distributions (Page 6 of 23)
Example 2
Susan is director of personnel at Antlers Lodge and hires
many college students every summer. One of the biggest activities
for the lodge staff is to make the rooms ready for the next guest.
Although the rooms are supposed to be ready by 3:30 pm, there are
always some rooms not finished because of high turn over.
Every 15 days Susan has a control chart of the number of
rooms not made up by 3:30 pm each day. From past experience,
Susan knows that the distribution of rooms not made up by 3:30
pm is approximately normal, with = 19.3 rooms and = 4.7
rooms. For the past 15 days the staff has reported the number of
rooms not made up by 3:30 pm as:
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
x 11 20 25 23 16 19 8 25 17 20 23 29 18 14 10
a. Make a control chart for these data. Completely annotate.
b. Is the housekeeping process out of control? Explain.
Control Chart for the Number
of Rooms Not Made Up by 3:30 PM
2
+ 2
3
+ 3
Normal Distributions (Page 7 of 23)
OutofControl Warning Signals
1. OutofControl Signal I: One
point falls beyond the 3 level.
The probability that this is a false
alarm is 0.003.
2. OutofControl Signal II: A run
of 9 consecutive points on one
side of the center line. The
probability that this is a false
alarm is 2 (0.5)
9
= 0.004.
3. OutofControl Signal III: At
least 2 of 3 consecutive points lie
beyond the 2 level on the same
side of the center line. The
probability that this is a false
alarm is 0.002
+ 2
+ 3
+ 3
+ 2
+ 2
+ 3
+ 3
+ 2
+ 2
+ 3
+ 3
+ 2
2
+ 2
3
+ 3
Normal Distributions (Page 9 of 23)
6.2 Standard Units and
The Standard Normal Distribution
Suppose Tina and Jack are in two different sections of the same
course and they recently took midterms. Tinas class average was
64 and she got a 74. Jacks class average 72 and he got an 82.
Who did better?
zScore or Standardized Score
To standardize test scores we use the zvalue or (zscore). The z
value, or zscore, or standardized score is the number of standard
deviations a data value lies away from the mean. The zscore can
be positive, negative, or zero depending on whether the data value
is above the mean, below the mean, or at the mean, respectively.
For any xvalue in a normal
distribution the standardized score, z
value, or zscore is given by:
Note(s):
1. If
x = , then
z = 0
2. If
x > , then
z > 0
3. If
x < , then
z < 0
Fact: Unless otherwise stated, for now on, the average will
mean the arithmetic mean.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
zscore
positive
x >
zscore
negative
x <
x
z score =
x
or
x = z +
Normal Distributions (Page 13 of 23)
Guided Exercise 7
Sams zscore on an exam is 1.3.
If the distribution of scores is
normally distributed with a mean
of 480 and a standard deviation
of 70, what is Sams raw score.
Draw the distribution.
Standard Normal Distribution / Curve
The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with
mean
= 0and standard deviation
= 1. The standard normal
curve is the graph of the standard normal distribution.
The Standard Normal Curve
= 0,
= 1
QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
TP TP
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Normal Distributions (Page 14 of 23)
The Normal Cumulative Density Function
The area under the normal curve with
mean and standard deviation on
the interval from a to b represents the
probability that a randomly chosen
value for x lies between a and b. It is
given by the normal cumulative
density function (normalcdf): Access
the DISTR menu (2nd > VARS) and
select 2:normalcdf(lower bound,
upper bound, [ , ]).
Example 6
Find the probability that z is between 1 and 1.
To show all work and receive full credit
(a) (2050% of the credit) Sketch the normal curve and shade in
the area in question. Label and scale the axis. Put dots at the
transition points and tick marks on the axis to 3 standard
deviations on each side of the mean.
(b) (5070% of the credit) Compute the area under the curve,
hence the probability, showing the probability notation, the TI
83 function accessed along with its inputs and output. Round
probabilities to 4 decimal places.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
Area = P(1 < z <1)
= normalcdf (___, ___, ___, ___)
= __________
Area = P(a < x < b)
= normalcdf (a,b,[,])
b a
x
Normal Distributions (Page 15 of 23)
Example 7
Find the probability that z is
1. between 3 and 3 2. greater than 1
3. between 0 and 2.53 4. greater than 2.53
5. less than 2.34 6. between 2 and 2
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
Normal Distributions (Page 16 of 23)
6.3 Area Under Any Normal Curve
TI84: The area under any normal curve between the values a
and b is given by
To show all work and receive full credit
(a) (2050% of the credit) Sketch the normal curve and shade in
the area in question. Label and scale the axis. Put dots at the
transition points and tick marks on the axis to 3 standard
deviations on each side of the mean.
(b) (5070% of the credit) Compute the area under the curve,
hence the probability, showing the probability notation, the TI
83 function accessed along with its inputs and output. State
probabilities to the nearest tenthousandth (4 decimal places).
Example 7
Given that x has a normal distribution with a
mean of 3 and standard deviation of 0.5, find
the probability that an x selected at random
will be between 2.1 and 3.7. Show your
work and include a sketch of the normal
curve relevant to this application.
QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
a b
x
Area = P(a < x < b) = normalcdf (a, b, ,)
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Normal Distributions (Page 17 of 23)
Example 8
Let x have a normal distribution with a mean
of 10 and a standard deviation of 2. Find the
probability that an x selected at random from
the distribution is between 11 and 14. Show
your work and include a sketch of the
normal curve representing the probability.
Example A
A factory has a machine that puts corn
flakes in boxes that are advertised as 20
ounces each. If the distribution of weights is
normal with = 20 and = 1.5, what is
the probability that the weight of a randomly
selected box of corn flakes will be between
19 and 21 oz? Show your work and include
a sketch of the normal curve representing
the probability.
Guided Exercise 10
If the life of a Sunshine Stereo is normally
distributed with a mean of 2.3 years and a
standard deviation of 0.4 years, what is the
probability that a randomly selected stereo
will break down during the warranty period
of 2 years? Show your work and include a
sketch of the normal curve representing the
probability.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Normal Distributions (Page 18 of 23)
The InverseNormal Function: DISTR / 3:invNorm(
a = invNorm(Area to the left of a, , )
Function Access the DISTR menu (2nd > VARS) and select
3:invNorm(area to the left of a, [ , ]).
Input Area to the left of a = P(x < a)
Mean (default value is 0)
Standard Deviation (default value is 1)
Output The value of a on the xaxis of the normal curve.
Guided Exercise 11
Find the value of a on the zaxis so that 3%
of the area under the standard normal curve
lies to the left of a. Round to two decimal
places.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
x
a
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
P(x < a)
Normal Distributions (Page 19 of 23)
Example B
a. Draw a standard normal curve. Then
find the value of a > 0 so that 32% of
curve lies between 0 and a.
b. Draw a standard normal curve. Then
find the value(s) of a on the zaxis so
that 94% of the curve lies between a
and a.
c. Draw a normal curve with a mean of 90
and a standard deviation of 7. Then find
the values of b so that 41% of the curve
lies between the mean and b.
d. Draw a normal curve with a mean of 45
and a standard deviation of 5. Then find
the value of b so that 88% of the curve
lies between 45  b and 45 + b.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1 0 1 2 3 2 3
z
Normal Distributions (Page 20 of 23)
Example C
Suppose a distribution is normal with a mean of 44 and a standard
deviation of 6. Find the value of a (to the nearest hundredth) on
the xaxis so that
a. 66% of the data values lie below a.
b. 15% of the data values lie above a.
Example 9
Magic Video Games Inc. sells expensive computer games and
wants to advertise an impressive, fullrefund warranty period. It
has found that the mean life for its computer games is 30 months
with a standard deviation of 4 months. If the life spans of the
computer games are normally distributed, how long of a warranty
period (to the nearest month) can be offered so that the company
will not have to refund the price of more than 7% of the computer
games?
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Normal Distributions (Page 21 of 23)
Exercise 39
Suppose you eat lunch at a restaurant that does not take
reservations. Let x represent the mean time waiting to be seated.
It is known that the mean waiting time is 18 minutes with a
standard deviation of 4 minutes, and the x distribution is normal.
What is the probability that the waiting time will exceed 20
minutes given that it has exceeded 15 minutes?
Let event A = x > 20 minutes
event B = x > 15 minutes
Answer by completing the following:
a. In terms of events A and B, what is it
we want to compute?
b. Is the event B and A = event x > 20 (i.e. event A)?
c. Show that
P(B and A) = P(B) P(A, given B)
is the same as
P(x > 20) = P(x > 15) P(A, given B)
d. Compute P(A), P(B) and P(A, given B)
QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Normal Distributions (Page 22 of 23)
6.4 Approximate a Binomial Distribution with a Normal
Distribution
Fact If np > 5 and nq > 5 in a binomial distribution, then the
sample size n is large enough so that the binomial random variable
r has a distribution that is approximately normal. The mean and
standard deviation of the normal distribution are estimated by
= np and
= npq . Furthermore, as the sample size gets larger
the approximation gets better.
Normal Distributions (Page 23 of 23)
Approximating a Binomial Distribution
Using a Normal Distribution
If np > 5 and nq > 5, then the binomial random variable r has a
distribution that is approximately normal. The mean and standard
deviation of the normal distribution are estimated by
= np and
= npq .
Example 12
The owner of a new apartment building needs to have 25 new
water heaters installed. Assume the probability that a water heater
will last 10 years is 0.25.
(a) What is the probability that 8 or more will last at least 10
years.
(b) Can the binomial
probability distribution be
approximated by a normal
distribution? Why / Why
not?
(c) Estimate part (a) with a
normal distribution. Take note of the continuity correction.
That is, remember to subtract 0.5 from the left endpoint of the
interval and add 0.5 to the right endpoint.
420 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Chapter 7: Introduction to Sampling Distributions
Section 7.1
1. Answers vary. Students should identify the individuals (subjects) and variable involved. For example, the
population of all ages of all people in Colorado, the population of weights of all students in your school, or
the population count of all antelope in Wyoming.
2. Answers vary. A simple random sample of n measurements from a population is a subset of the population
selected in a manner such that
(a) Every sample of size n from the population has an equal chance of being selected.
(b) Every member of the population has an equal chance of being included in the sample.
3. A population parameter is a numerical descriptive measure of a population, such as , the population
mean, , the population standard deviation,
2
, the population variance, p, the population proportion, the
population maximum and minimum, etc.
4. A sample statistic is a numerical descriptive measure of a sample, such as , x the sample mean, s, the
sample standard deviation, s
2
, the sample variance, , p the sample proportion, the sample maximum and
minimum, etc.
5. A statistical inference refers to conclusions about the value of a population parameter based on
information from the corresponding sample statistic and the associated probability distributions. We will
do both estimation and testing.
6. A sampling distribution is a probability distribution for a sample statistic.
7. They help us visualize the sampling distribution by using tables and graphs that approximately represent
the sampling distribution.
8. Relative frequencies can be thought of as a measure or estimate of the likelihood of a certain statistic
falling within the class bounds.
9. We studied the sampling distribution of mean trout lengths based on samples of size 5. Other such
sampling distributions abound. Notice that the sample size remains the same for each sample in a sampling
distribution.
Section 7.2
Note: Answers may vary slightly depending on the number of digits carried in the standard deviation.
1. The standard error is simply the standard deviation for a sampling distribution.
2. The standard error
3. x is an unbiased estimator for , and p is an unbiased estimator for p.
4. As the sample size increases, the variability decreases.
5. (a) The required sample size is n 30.
(b) No. If the original distribution is normal, then x is distributed normally for any sample size.
6. (a) No, because we require a sample size of n 30 if the original distribution is not normal.
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 421
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) Yes, the x distribution is normal with mean 72
x
= and
8
2
16
x
= = .
(68 73) ( 2 0.50) 0.6687
68 72 73 72
2 0.50
2 2
P x P z
z z
= =
= = = =
7. The distribution with n = 225 will have a smaller standard error. Since
x
n
= =
= = =
Because n = 49 30, by the central limit theorem, we can assume that the distribution of x is
approximately normal.
15
2.0
x
x x
z
= =
15 15
15 converts to 0
2.0
17 15
17 converts to 1
2.0
x z
x z
= = =
= = =
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
15 17 0 1
1 0
0.8413 0.5000
0.3413
P x P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
(b) 15
14
1.75
64
x
x
n
= =
= = =
Because n = 64 30, by the central limit theorem, we can assume that the distribution of x is
approximately normal.
15
1.75
x
x x
z
= =
15 15
15 converts to 0
1.75
17 15
17 converts to 1.14
1.75
x z
x z
= = =
= = =
422 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
15 17 0 1.14
1.14 0
0.8729 0.5000
0.3729
P x P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
(c) The standard deviation of part (b) is smaller because of the larger sample size. Therefore, the
distribution about
x
is narrower.
10. (a) For both distributions, the mean will be 5
x
= .
(b) The distribution with n = 81 because the standard deviation will be smaller. This distribution will be
less spread out around its mean.
(c) The distribution with n = 81 because the standard deviation will be smaller. This distribution will be
less spread out around its mean.
11. (a) 75, 0.8 = =
( )
( )
74.5 75
74.5
0.8
0.63
0.2643
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(b)
0.8
75, 0.179
20
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
74.5 75
74.5
0.179
2.79
0.0026
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(c) No. If the weight of only one car were less than 74.5 tons, we could not conclude that the loader is out
of adjustment. If the mean weight for a sample of 20 cars were less than 74.5 tons, we would suspect
that the loader is malfunctioning because the probability of this event occurring is 0.26% if indeed the
distribution is correct.
12. (a) 68, 3 = =
( )
( )
( ) ( )
67 68 69 68
67 69
3 3
0.33 0.33
0.33 0.33
0.6293 0.3707
0.2586
P x P z
P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 423
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b)
3
68, 1
9
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
( ) ( )
67 68 69 68
67 69
1 1
1 1
1 1
0.8413 0.1587
0.6826
P x P z
P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
=
(c) The probability in part (b) is much higher because the standard deviation is smaller for
the x distribution.
13. (a) 85, 25 = =
( )
( )
40 85
40
25
1.8
0.0359
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(b) The probability distribution of x is approximately normal with
25
85; 17.68.
2
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
40 85
40
17.68
2.55
0.0054
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(c)
25
85, 14.43
3
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
40 85
40
14.43
3.12
0.0009
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(d)
25
85, 11.2
5
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
40 85
40
11.2
4.02
0.0002
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
<
(e) Yes. The more tests a patient completes, the stronger is the evidence for excess insulin. If the average
value based on five tests were less than 40, the patient is almost certain to have excess insulin.
14. 7500, 1750 = =
(a) ( )
( )
3500 7500
3500
1750
2.29
0.0110
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
424 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) The probability distribution of x is approximately normal with
1750
7500; 1237.44.
2
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
3500 7500
3500
1237.44
3.23
0.0006
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(c)
1750
7500, 1010.36
3
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
3500 7500
3500
1010.36
3.96
0.0002
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
<
(d) The probabilities decreased as n increased. It would be an extremely rare event for a person to have
two or three tests below 3,500 purely by chance. The person probably has leukopenia.
15. (a) 63.0, 7.1 = =
( )
( )
54 63.0
54
7.1
1.27
0.1020
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(b) The expected number undernourished is 2,200 0.1020 = 224.4, or about 224.
(c)
7.1
63.0, 1.004
50
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
60 63.0
60
1.004
2.99
0.0014
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
(d) 63.0, 1.004
x x
= =
( )
( )
64.2 63.0
64.2
1.004
1.20
0.8849
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
Since the sample average is above the mean, it is quite unlikely that the doe population is
undernourished.
16. (a) By the central limit theorem, the sampling distribution of x is approximately normal with
mean $20
x
= = and standard error
$7
$0.70.
100
x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1% 1.6% 2% 1.6%
1% 2%
0.367% 0.367%
1.63 1.09
1.09 1.63
0.8621 0.0516
0.8105
P x P z
P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
=
(c) Note: 2 years = 24 months; x is monthly percentage return.
0.9%
1.6%, 0.1837%
24
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1% 1.6% 2% 1.6%
1% 2%
0.1837% 0.1837%
3.27 2.18
2.18 3.27
0.9854 0.0005
0.9849
P x P z
P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
=
(d) Yes. The probability increases as the standard deviation decreases. The standard deviation decreases as
the sample size increases.
426 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(e) 1.6%, 0.1837%
x x
= =
( )
( )
1% 1.6%
1%
0.1837%
3.27
0.0005
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
This is very unlikely if = 1.6%. One would suspect that has slipped below 1.6%.
18. (a) The random variable x is itself an average based on the number of stocks in the fund. Since x itself
represents a sample mean return based on a large (random) sample of size n = 100 of stocks, x has a
distribution that is approximately normal (central limit theorem).
(b)
0.8%
1.4%, 0.2667%
9
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1% 1.4% 2% 1.4%
1% 2%
0.2667% 0.2667%
1.50 2.25
2.25 1.50
0.9878 0.0668
0.9210
P x P z
P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
=
(c)
0.8%
1.4%, 0.1886%
18
x x
n
= = = =
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1% 1.4% 2% 1.4%
1% 2%
0.1886% 0.1886%
2.12 3.18
3.18 2.12
0.9993 0.0170
0.9823
P x P z
P z
P z P z
=
=
=
=
=
(d) Yes. The probability increases as the standard deviation decreases. The standard deviation decreases as
the sample size increases.
(e) 1.4%, 0.1886%
x x
= =
( )
( )
( )
2% 1.4%
2%
0.1886%
3.18
1 3.18
1 0.9993
0.0007
P x P z
P z
P z
> = >
= >
=
=
=
This is very unlikely if = 1.4%. One would suspect that the European stock market may be heating
up; i.e., is greater than 1.4%.
19. (a) The total checkout time for 30 customers is the sum of the checkout times for each individual
customer. Thus w = x
1
+ x
2
+
+ x
30
, and the probability that the total checkout time for the next 30
customers is less than 90 is P(w < 90).
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 427
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) If we divide both sides of w < 90 by 30, we obtain
30
w
< 3. However, w is the sum of 30 waiting times,
so
30
w
is . x Therefore, ( ) ( ) 90 3 . P w P x < = <
(c) The probability distribution of x is approximately normal with mean 2.7
x
= = and standard
deviation
0.6
0.1095.
30
x
n
= = =
(d) ( )
( )
3 2.7
3
0.1095
2.74
0.9969
P x P z
P z
< = <
= <
=
The probability that the total checkout time for the next 30 customers is less than 90 minutes is
0.9969.
20. Let w = x
1
+ x
2
+ + x
36
.
(a) w < 320 is equivalent to
320
36 36
w
< or 8.889. x <
2.5
8.5, 0.4167.
36
x x
n
= = = = =
( ) ( )
( )
320 8.889
8.889 8.5
0.4167
0.93
0.8238
P w P x
P z
P z
< = <
= <
= <
=
(b) w > 275 is equivalent to
275
36 36
w
> or 7.639. x > 8.5, 0.4167.
x x
= =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
275 7.639
7.639 8.5
0.4167
2.07
1 2.07
1 0.0192
0.9808
P w P x
P z
P z
P z
> = >
= >
= >
=
=
(c) ( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( )
275 320 7.639 8.889
2.07 0.93
0.93 2.07
0.8238 0.0192
0.8046
P w P x
P z
P z P z
< < = < <
= < <
= < <
=
=
428 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
21. (a) Let
1 2 5
. w x x x = + + +
3.3
17, 1.476
5
x x
n
= = = = =
90
( 90)
5 5
( 18)
18 17
1.476
( 0.68)
1 0.7517
0.2483
w
P w P
P x
P z
P z
> = >
= >
= >
= >
=
=
(b)
80
( 80)
5 5
( 16)
16 17
1.476
( 0.68)
0.2483
w
P w P
P x
P z
P z
< = <
= <
= <
= <
=
(c) (80 90) (16 18)
( 0.68 0.68)
( 0.68) ( 0.68)
0.7517 0.2483
0.5034
P w P x
P z
P z P z
< < = < <
= < <
= < <
=
=
Section 7.3
1. We must check that np > 5 and nq > 5.
2.
p
pq
n
= and
p
p =
3. Yes, it is unbiased. The mean of the distribution for p is p.
4. (a) 0.5/25 = 0.02
(b) 0.5/100 = 0.005
(c) As n increases, the continuity correction decreases.
5. (a) ( ) ( ) 33 0.21 6.93, 33 0.79 26.07 np nq = = = =
Yes, p can be approximated by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.21 0.79
0.21, 0.071
33
p p
p = = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 429
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.015
33
0.15 0.25 0.15 0.015 0.25 0.015
0.135 0.265
0.135 0.21 0.265 0.21
0.071 0.071
1.06 0.77
0.77 1.06
0.7794 0.1446
0.6348
n
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
P z P z
= =
= +
=
=
=
=
=
=
(b) No, because np = 25 0.15 = 3.75 does not exceed 5.
(c) ( ) ( ) = 48 0.15 = 7.2, = 48 0.85 = 40.8 np nq
Yes, p can be approximated by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.15 0.85
0.15, 0.052
48
p p
p = = =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.010
45
0.22 0.22 0.010
0.21
0.21 0.15
0.052
1.15
1 1.15
1 0.8749
0.1251
n
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
P z
= = =
=
=
=
=
= <
=
=
6. (a)
( ) ( )
50, 0.36
50 0.36 18, 50 0.64 32
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.36 0.64
0.36, 0.068
50
p p
p = = =
430 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.01
50
0.30 0.45 0.30 0.01 0.45 0.01
0.29 0.46
0.29 0.36 0.46 0.36
0.068 0.068
1.03 1.47
1.47 1.03
0.9292 0.1515
0.7777
n
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
P z P z
= = =
+
=
=
=
=
=
=
(b)
( ) ( )
38, 0.25
38 0.25 9.5, 38 0.75 28.5
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.25 0.75
0.25, 0.070
38
p p
p = = =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.013
38
0.35 0.35 0.013
0.337
0.337 0.25
0.070
1.24
1 1.24
1 0.8925
0.1075
n
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
P z
= = =
> = >
= >
= >
= >
=
=
=
(c)
( )
41, 0.09
41 0.09 3.69
n p
np
= =
= =
We cannot approximate p by a normal random variable because np < 5.
7.
( ) ( )
30, 0.60
30 0.60 18, 30 0.40 12
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.6 0.4
0.6, 0.089
30
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.017
30
p p
p
n
= = =
= = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 431
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(a) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.5 0.5 0.017
0.483
0.483 0.6
0.089
1.31
0.9049
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
=
(b) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.667 0.667 0.017
0.65
0.65 0.6
0.089
0.56
0.2877
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.333 0.333 0.017
0.35
0.35 0.6
0.089
2.81
0.0025
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
+
=
=
=
=
(d) Yes, both np and nq exceed 5.
8. (a)
( ) ( )
38, 0.73
38 0.73 27.74, 38 0.27 10.26
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.73 0.27
0.73, 0.072
38
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.013
38
p p
p
n
= = =
= = =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.667 0.667 0.013
0.654
0.654 0.73
0.072
1.06
0.8554
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
=
(b)
( ) ( )
45, 0.86
45 0.86 38.7, 45 0.14 6.3
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and
nq exceed 5.
432 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( )
0.86 0.14
0.86, 0.052
45
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.011
45
p p
p
n
= = =
= = =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.667 0.667 0.011
0.656
0.656 0.86
0.052
3.92
1
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
(c) Yes, both np and nq exceed 5 for men and for women.
9. (a)
( ) ( )
100, 0.06
100 0.06 6, 100 0.94 94
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
p can be approximated by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.06 0.94
0.06, 0.024
100
0.5
Continuity correction 0.005
100
p p
p = = =
= =
(b) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.07 0.07 0.005
0.065
0.065 0.06
0.024
0.21
0.4168
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.11 0.11 0.005
0.105
0.105 0.06
0.024
1.88
0.0301
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
=
Yes; because this probability is so small, it should rarely occur. The machine might need an
adjustment.
10. (a)
( ) ( )
50, 0.565
50 0.565 28.25, 50 0.435 21.75
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
p can be approximated by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.565 0.435
0.565, 0.070
50
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.01
50
p p
p
n
= = =
= = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 433
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(b) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.53 0.53 0.01
0.54
0.54 0.565
0.070
0.36
0.3594
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
+
=
=
=
=
(c) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.41 0.41 0.01
0.42
0.42 0.565
0.070
2.07
0.0192
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
+
=
=
=
=
(d) Meredith has the more serious case because the probability of having such a low reading in a healthy
person is less than 2%.
11.
( )
total number of successes from all 12 quarters
total number of families from all 12 quarters
11 14 19
12 92
206
1,104
0.1866
p =
+ + +
=
=
=
( )
1 1 0.1866 0.8134
0.1866
0.1866 0.8134
0.0406
92
p
p
q p
p p
pq pq
n n
= = =
= =
= =
Check: ( ) ( ) 92 0.1866 17.2, 92 0.8134 74.8 np nq = = = =
Since both np and nq exceed 5, the normal approximation should be reasonably good.
Center line 0.1866 p = =
Control limits at 2
pq
p
n
( ) 0.1866 2 0.0406
0.1866 0.0812
or 0.1054 and 0.2678
=
=
Control limits at 3
pq
p
n
( ) 0.1866 3 0.0406
0.1866 0.1218
or 0.0648 and 0.3084
=
=
434 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Quar t er
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
_
P= 0.1866
+3SL= 0.3084
3SL= 0.0647
+2SL= 0.2678
2SL= 0.1054
P Char t of Vi ct i ms
There are no outofcontrol signals.
12.
( )
total number of defective cans
total number of cans
8 11 10
110 15
133
1650
0.08061
p =
+ + +
=
=
=
( ) ( )
1 1 0.08061 0.91939
0.08061
0.08061 0.91939
0.02596
110
p
p
q p
p p
pq pq
n n
= = =
= =
= =
Check: ( ) ( ) 110 0.08061 8.9, 110 0.91939 101.1 np nq = = = =
Since both np and nq exceed 5, the normal approximation should be reasonably good.
Center line 0.08061 p = =
Control limits at 2
pq
p
n
( ) 0.08061 2 0.02596
0.08061 0.05192, or 0.02869 and 0.1325.
=
=
Control limits at 3
pq
p
n
( ) 0.08061 3 0.02596
0.08061 0.07788, or 0.00273 and 0.1585.
=
=
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 435
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Test Sheet
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
_
P= 0.0806
+3SL= 0.1585
3SL= 0.0027
+2SL= 0.1325
2SL= 0.0287
P Char t of Def ect i ve Cans
There are no outofcontrol signals. It appears that the production process is in reasonable control.
13.
( )
total number who got jobs
total number of people
60 53 58
75 15
872
1125
0.7751
p =
+ + +
=
=
=
( ) ( )
1 1 0.7751 0.2249
0.7751
0.7751 0.2249
0.0482
75
p
p
q p
p p
pq pq
n n
= = =
= =
= =
Check: ( ) ( ) 75 0.7751 58.1, 75 0.2249 16.9 np nq = = = =
Since both np and nq exceed 5, the normal approximation should be reasonably good.
Center line 0.7751 p = =
Control limits at 2
pq
p
n
( ) 0.7751 2 0.0482
0.7751 0.0964, or 0.6787 to 0.8715.
=
=
Control limits at 3
pq
p
n
( ) 0.7751 3 0.0482
0.7751 0.1446, or 0.6305 to 0.9197.
=
=
436 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Day
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
_
P= 0.7751
+3SL= 0.9197
3SL= 0.6305
+2SL= 0.8715
2SL= 0.6787
1
1
P Char t of Jobs
Outofcontrol signal III occurs on days 4 and 5; outofcontrol signal I occurs on day 11 on the low side
and day 14 on the high side. Outofcontrol signals on the low side are of most concern for the homeless
seeking work. The foundation should look to see what happened on that day. The foundation might take a
look at the outofcontrol periods on the high side to see if there is a possibility of cultivating more jobs.
Chapter 7 Review
1. (a) The x distribution approaches a normal distribution.
(b) The mean
x
of the x distribution equals the mean of the x distribution regardless of the sample size.
(c) The standard deviation
x
of the sampling distribution equals , where
n
is the standard
deviation of the x distribution and n is the sample size.
(d) They will both be approximately normal with the same mean, but the standard deviations will
be
50
and ,
100
respectively.
2. All the x distributions will be normal with mean 15.
x
= = The standard deviations will be
3 3
4:
2
4
3 3
16: =
4
16
3 3
100: =
10
100
x
x
x
n
n
n
n
n
n
= = = =
= = =
= = =
3. (a) 35, 7 = =
( )
( )
40 35
40
7
0.71
0.2389
P x P z
P z
=
=
=
(b)
7 7
35,
3 9
x x
n
= = = = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 437
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( )
( )
7
3
40 35
40
2.14
0.0162
P x P z
P z
=
=
=
4. (a) 38, 5 = =
( )
( )
35 38
35
5
0.6
0.2743
P x P z
P z
=
=
=
(b)
5
38, 1.58
10
x x
n
= = = = =
( )
( )
35 38
35
1.58
1.90
0.0287
P x P z
P z
=
=
=
(c) The probability in part (b) is much smaller because the standard deviation is smaller for
the x distribution.
5.
15
100, 1.5
100
x x
n
= = = = =
( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( )
100 2 100 2 98 102
98 100 102 100
1.5 1.5
1.33 1.33
1.33 1.33
0.9082 0.0918
0.8164
P x P x
P z
P z
P z P z
+ =
=
=
=
=
=
6.
2
15, 0.333
36
x x
n
= = = = =
( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( )
15 0.5 15 0.5 14.5 15.5
14.5 15 15.5 15
0.333 0.333
1.5 1.5
1.5 1.5
0.9332 0.0668
0.8664
P x P x
P z
P z
P z P z
+ =
=
=
=
=
=
7. (a)
( ) ( )
50, 0.22
50 0.22 11, 50 0.78 39
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
438 Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
( )
0.22 0.78
0.22, 0.0586
50
p p
p = = =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.01
50
0.20 0.25 0.20 0.01 0.25 0.01
0.19 0.26
0.19 0.22 0.26 0.22
0.0586 0.0586
0.51 0.68
0.68 0.51
0.7517 0.3050
0.4467
n
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
P z P z
= = =
+
=
=
=
=
=
=
(b)
( ) ( )
38, 0.27
38 0.27 10.26, 38 0.73 27.74
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( ) ( )
0.27 0.73
0.27, 0.0720
38
p p
p = = =
( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.013
38
0.35 0.35 0.013
0.337
0.337 0.27
0.0720
0.93
0.1762
n
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
= = =
=
=
=
=
(c)
( )
51, 0.05
51 0.05 2.55
n p
np
= =
= =
No, we cannot approximate p by a normal random variable because np < 5.
8.
( ) ( )
28, 0.31
28 0.31 8.68, 28 0.69 19.32
n p
np nq
= =
= = = =
Approximate p by a normal random variable because both np and nq exceed 5.
( )
0.31 0.69
0.31, 0.087
28
0.5 0.5
Continuity correction 0.018
28
p p
p
n
= = =
= = =
Part IV: Complete Solutions, Chapter 7 439
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
(a) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
0.25 0.25 0.018
0.232
0.232 0.31
0.087
0.90
0.8159
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
=
=
=
=
(b) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
0.25 0.50 0.25 0.018 0.50 0.018
0.232 0.518
0.232 0.31 0.518 0.31
0.087 0.087
0.90 2.39
2.39 0.90
0.9916 0.1841
0.8075
P p P x
P x
P z
P z
P z P z
+
=
=
=
=
=
=
(c) Yes, both np and nq exceed 5.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 1 of 25)
8.1 Estimating When is Known
Assumptions about the random variable x
1. We have a simple random sample of size n drawn from the
population of x values.
2. The value of , the population standard deviation is known.
3. If the x distribution is normal, then our methods work for any
sample size n.
4. If x has an unknown distribution, then we require the sample
size
n 30. However, if the x distribution is not mound
shaped, then a sample size of 50 or 100 may be needed.
Point Estimate
An estimate of a population given by a single number is called a
point estimate of that population parameter.
For Example:
x is a point estimate for .
s is a point estimate for .
Margin of Error
The margin of error in using
x as a point estimate for is given
by
E = x .
A point estimate is not very useful unless we have some kind of
measure of how good it is. This measure of goodness is
expressed as a confidence interval.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 2 of 25)
Confidence Interval and Level of Confidence
Suppose 100 students at Palomar were randomly chosen and their
heights were measured yielding a [sample] mean of 5.72 ft with a
margin of error of 0.08 ft. Consider the following statements:
1. The population mean is approximately 5.72 feet.
2. There is a 95% probability that the population mean is
between 5.64 ft and 5.80 ft. P(5.64 ft 5.80 ft ) = 0.95
3. At a 95% level of confidence the population mean is between
5.64 ft and 5.80 ft.
4. The population mean
= 5.72 0.08 feet at a 95% level of
confidence.
Confidence levels and confidence intervals provide a measure of
how good a point estimate estimates a population parameter.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 3 of 25)
Confidence Interval for
A cpercent confidence interval for the population mean is
an interval computed from sample data in such a way that c is the
probability of generating an interval containing the actual value of
. That is,
P(x E x + E) = c,
where E is the maximum margin of error when estimating with
x .
In words,
P(x E x + E) = c means . . .
1. The probability that the population mean is between
x E
and
x + E is c.
2. The population mean is between
x E and
x + E at a
confidence level of c.
3. The population mean is
E at a cpercent level of
confidence.
5. If we repeat the experiment many times with the same sample
size, then c proportion of the intervals calculated will contain
the population mean . Thus,
1 c proportion of the intervals
will not contain .
x + E x E
Shaded Area = c
x axis
The probability that
is on this interval is c
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 4 of 25)
Example 1
Jackie has been jogging 2 miles a day for years and she records her
times. A sample of 90 of these times has a mean of 15.60 minutes
and a known standard deviation of 1.80 minutes.
a. Find a 95% confidence interval for
. Draw and label the normal
distribution illustrating the
confidence interval. Solve without
using the ZInterval function (see
below).
b. Find E, maximum error in estimating with
x at the
confidence level c.
c. Write the conclusion in probability notation.
i.e.
P(x E x + E) = c
d. Summarize your conclusion in one sentence [relvant to the
application].
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 5 of 25)
Using the TI83/84 ZInterval Function
The ZInterval (STAT / TESTS / 7: ZInterval) function computes a
confidence interval for and unknown population mean when the
population standard deviation is known.
Input: STATS
, x , and clevel
Output: The interval from
x E to
x + E, where
E =
1
2
(interval length)
Example 2
a. Compute the 95% confidence interval in example 1. Use the
ZInterval function.
b. Summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to this
application.
At a 95% level of confidence, the population mean of all 2
mi jogging times for Jackie is between 15.23 and 15.97
minutes.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 6 of 25)
Section 8.1 Homework Instructions
Steps to find a c% confidence interval for
1. Sketch a normal curve illustrating
the c% confidence interval for .
Label
x E,
x + E, and
x .
Where E is the margin of error
when estimating with
x at a
confidence level of c.
2. Without using the ZInterval function, compute the c%
confidence interval for the population mean. That is,
x E = invNorm(area to the left of x E,
x
,
x
)
x + E = invNorm(area to the left of x + E,
x
,
x
)
Use the estimate
x
x
, and
x
= / n .
3. Find E, is the maximum error in estimating with
x at a
confidence level of c. It is computed as follows
E = half the interval length from step 2
E =
1
2
(x + E) (x E)
[ ]
4. Write the confidence interval in probability notation.
i.e.
P(x E x + E) = c
5. Summarize your results in a concise, complete sentence
relevant to the problem. That is,
At the c% confidence level the population mean of all
____________________ is between _____ and _____ [units].
x + E x E
x axis
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 7 of 25)
Guided Exercise 2
Jason jogs 3 miles per day and records his times. A sample of 90
of these times has a mean of 21.50 minutes and a known standard
deviation of 2.11 minutes. Find the 99% confidence interval for
the population mean by completing steps 15 above.
a. Sketch a normal curve to illustrate
the 99% confidence interval for
the mean in his application. Label
the axis.
b. Without using the ZInterval
function, find the 99% confidence
interval for the population mean.
c. Find E = half the interval length
d. Write the confidence interval in probability notation.
i.e.
P(x E x + E) = c
e. Summarize your results in a concise, complete sentence
relevant to the problem.
At a ____% confidence level, the mean of _______________
_________________________________________________
is between ____________ and _____________.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 8 of 25)
Guided Exercise 3
An automobile loan company wants to estimate the amount of the
average car loan during the past year. A random sample of 200
loans had a mean of $8225 and a known standard deviation of
$762. Find the 95% confidence interval for the population mean by
completing steps 15 above.
a. Sketch a normal curve to illustrate
the 95% confidence interval for
the mean in his application. Label
the axis.
b. Without using the ZInterval
function, find the 95% confidence
interval for the population mean.
c. Find E = half the interval length
d. Write the confidence interval in probability notation.
i.e.
P(x E x + E) = c
e. Summarize your results in a concise, complete sentence
relevant to the problem.
At a ____% confidence level, the mean of _______________
_________________________________________________
is between ____________ and _____________.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 9 of 25)
8.1 (was 8.4) Estimating the Sample Size n
Critical Value
z
c
is called the critical value for a confidence level c if
P(z
c
< z < z
c
) = c
That is,
z
c
is the zscore such that the area under the standard
normal curve between
z
c
and
z
c
is c.
In words we say . . .
a. the probability that a randomly selected zvalue is between
z
c
and
z
c
is c. Or
b. at a cpercent level of confidence we can say that a randomly
chosen z will be between
z
c
and
z
c
.
For Example
1. If
c = 0.90, then
P(z
0.90
< z < z
0.90
) = 0.90. Compute
z
0.90
.
2. If
c = 0.95, then
P(z
0.95
< z < z
0.95
) = 0.95. Compute
z
0.95
.
3. If
c = 0.99, then
P(z
0.99
< z < z
0.99
) = 0.99. Compute
z
0.99
.
Estimating Sample Size n for Estimating
z
c
z
c
Shaded Area = c
zaxis
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 10 of 25)
If, with a confidence level of c, we want our point estimate
x to be
within E units of , then we choose the sample size n to be
n =
z
c
E
2
,
where
z
c
is the critical value for a confidence level of c.
Example 6
A sample of 50 salmon is caught and weighed. The sample
standard deviation of the 50 weights is 2.15 lb. How large of a
sample should be taken to be 97% confident that the sample mean
is within 0.20 lb of the mean weight of the population? Find
z
c
(to
the nearest thousandth) and n. Then summarize your results in a
complete sentence relevant to this application.
8.1 Estimating When is Known (Page 11 of 25)
Example 7
An efficiency expert wants to determine the mean time it takes an
employee to assemble a switch on an assembly line. A preliminary
study of 45 observations found a sample standard deviation of 78
seconds. How many more observations are needed to be 92%
certain that the mean of the sample will vary from the true mean by
no more than 15 seconds? Find
z
c
(to the nearest thousandth) and
n. Then summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to
this application.
Guided Exercise 6
The dean wants to estimate the average teaching experience (in
years) of the faculty members. A preliminary random sample of
60 faculty yields a sample standard deviation of 3.4 years. How
many more faculty should be sampled to be 99% confident that the
sample mean does not differ from the true mean by more than 0.5
years? Find
z
c
(to the nearest thousandth) and n. Then summarize
your results in a complete sentence relevant to this application.
8.2 Estimating When is Unknown (Page 12 of 25)
8.2 Estimating When is Unknown
When the population standard deviation is unknown, it is
approximated by the sample standard deviation s. The TInterval
function works with what is called the Students tdistribution
where all statistical fudge factors necessary to accommodate
approximating with s are built into the function.
The TInterval function (TI83: STAT / TESTS / 8: TInterval)
Input: STATS
x, s, n, and clevel or
DATA data list and
clevel
Output: The interval from
x E to
x + E, where
E =
1
2
(interval length)
Homework Instructions for Section 8.2
1. Omit exercises #14
2. When asked to find a confidence interval, do the following:
a. Find the c% confidence interval for the mean . Write it
in probability notation
b. Summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to
the application.
8.2 Estimating When is Unknown (Page 13 of 25)
Example 4
An archeologist discovered a new, but extinct, species of miniature
horse. The only seven known samples show shoulder heights (in
cm) of 45.3, 47.1, 44.2, 46.8, 46.5, 45.5, and 47.6. Find the 99%
confidence interval for (the mean height of the entire population
of ancient horses) and the error E. Then summarize your results in
a complete sentence relevant to this application.
a. Find the 99% confidence interval for the mean . Write it in
probability notation
b. Summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to the
application.
Guided Exercise 3
A company produced a trial production run of 37 artificial
sapphires. The mean weight is 6.75 carats and the standard
deviation is 0.33 carats. Find the 95% confidence interval for the
mean weight of all artificial sapphires and the error E. Then
summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to this
application.
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment (Page 14 of 25)
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment
Large Sample Size Assumption
If np > 5 and nq > 5, then the sample size n is large enough so that
the binomial distribution can be approximated by a normal
distribution, and a c% confidence interval for p is expressed as
P(
p E p
p +E) = c
where
p is the point estimate for p.
TI83 1PropZInt function: STAT / TESTS / A: 1PropZInt
Input: x = r = number of successes
n = number of trials
clevel = confidence level
Output:
(
p E,
p +E),
p , n
Where E (the maximum error in using
p as a point estimate for p
for the given confidence level) is onehalf the interval length.
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment (Page 15 of 25)
Example 5
Suppose 800 students were given flu shots and 600 did not get the
flu. Assuming all 800 were exposed to the flu:
a. What is S, n, and r (note: r is
input as variable x on the TI83)?
b. What are the point estimates for p
and q (i.e.
p and
q)?
c. Is n large enough to approximate
the binomial distribution with a
normal distribution? Why?
d. Find the 99% confidence interval
for p.
e. Summarize your results in a
complete sentence relevant to this
application.
p =
q =
S =
r =
n =
n
p =
n
q =
P(
p E p
p + E) = 0.99
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment (Page 16 of 25)
Guided Exercise 4
A random sample of 195 books at a bookstore showed that 68 of
the books were nonfiction.
a. Find S and
p.
b. Is the sample size large enough to approximate a normal
distribution with a binomial distribution? Why?
c. Find the 90% confidence interval for p to the nearest
thousandth (3 decimal places).
d. Summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to this
application.
Homework Instructions for Section 8.3 Problems
When asked to find the c% confidence interval for p, do the
following four steps.
1. Find S and
p
2. Determine if the sample size is large enough to approximate a
normal distribution with a binomial distribution?
3. Find the c% confidence interval for p to the nearest thousandth
(3 decimal places).
4. Summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to this
application.
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment (Page 17 of 25)
A Margin of Error, E, is the maximum error when using a point
estimate for a population parameter at a given confidence level.
General Interpretation of Poll Results
1. When a poll states the results of a survey, the proportion
reported is
p (the sample estimate of the population
proportion).
2. The margin of error is the maximal error E of a [95%, usually]
confidence interval for p.
3. If
p is obtained from a poll, Then a 95% confidence interval
for the population proportion p is
p E < p < p + E.
Guided Exercise 5
A random sample of 315 households were surveyed. Chances are
19 of 20 that if all adults had been surveyed, the findings would
differ from the poll results by no more than 2.6% in either
direction. One question was asked: Which party would do a
better job handling education? The possible responses were
Democrats, Republicans, neither, or both. The poll reported that
32% responded Democrat.
a. What confidence level corresponds to the phrase chances are
19 of 20 that if . . . .
b. What is S, n, and the sample statistic
p for the proportion
responding Democrat?
c. Find E. Find the 95% confidence interval for p those who
would respond Democrat.
d. Summarize your results in a complete sentence relevant to this
application.
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment (Page 18 of 25)
8.3 Estimating Sample Size n for Estimating p
(a) If, with a confidence level of c, we want our point estimate
p
to be within E units of p, then we choose the sample size n to
be
n = p q
z
c
E
2
where
z
c
is the zscore corresponding to a confidence level of
c.
(b) If no estimate for p is available, we can say with a confidence
level of at least c that the point estimate
p will be within E
units of p by choosing
n = 0.25
z
c
E
2
Example 8
A buyer for a popcorn company wants to estimate the probability p
that a kernel purchased from a particular farm will pop. Suppose a
random sample of n kernels is taken and r of these kernels pop.
The buyer wants to be 95% certain that the point estimate
p will
be within 0.01 units of p.
a. Find
z
c
and E.
b. If no estimate for p is available, how large a sample should the
buyer use? (i.e. how large should n be)?
c. A preliminary study showed that p was approximately 0.86.
Now, how large a sample should be used?
8.3 Estimating p in a Binomial Experiment (Page 19 of 25)
Guided Exercise 7
The health department wants to estimate the proportion of children
who require corrective lenses for their vision. They want to be
99% sure that the point estimate for p will have a maximum error
of 0.03.
a. If no other information is known, find E and
z
c
. Estimate the
sample size required.
b. Suppose a preliminary random sample of 100 children
indicates that 23 require corrective lenses. How large should n
be?
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Page 20 of 25)
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
Independent and Dependent Samples
In order to make a statistical estimate about the difference between
two populations, we need to have a sample from each population.
Two samples are independent if the sample from one population
is unrelated to the sample from the other. However, if each
measurement in one sample can be naturally paired with
measurements of another sample, the two samples are said to be
dependent (such as before and after samples).
Guided Exercise 8
Classify the pairs of samples as dependent or independent.
a. In a medical experiment, one group is given a treatment and
another group is given a placebo. After a period of time both
groups are measured for the same condition.
b. A group of Math students is given a test at the beginning of a
course and the same group is given the same test at the end of
the course.
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Page 21 of 25)
Theorem 8.1
Let
x
1
and
x
2
have normal distributions. If we take independent
random samples of size
n
1
from
x
1
and
n
2
from
x
2
, then the
variable
x
1
x
2
has
1. a normal distribution
2. a mean of
1
2
3. a standard deviation of
1
2
n
1
+
2
2
n
2
Estimating
1
2
When
1
and
1
are Known
A c% confidence interval for
1
2
is expressed as
(x
1
x
2
) E <
1
2
< ( x
1
x
2
) +E
This interval is the output of the TI83 function 2SampZInt.
TI83 function 2SampZInt (STAT / TESTS / 9: 2SampZInt)
Input:
1
,
2
, x
1,
n
1
, x
2
, n
2
, c level
Output: Interval from
(x
1
x
2
) E to (x
1
x
2
) + E
Where E is one half the interval length output by the 2SampZInt
function.
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Page 22 of 25)
Example 9
Suppose a biologist is studying data from Yellowstone streams
before and after a 1988 fire. A random sample of 167 fishing
reports in the years before the fire showed the average catch per
day of 5.2 trout with
= 1.9 trout. After the fire a sample of 125
fishing reports showed the average catch per day of 6.8 trout with
= 2.3 trout.
a. Are the sample independent?
b. Compute a 95% C.I. for
1
2
.
At a 95% level of confidence ________ <
1
2
< _______.
c. Explain the meaning of part b.
Estimating
1
2
When
1
and
1
are Unknown
A c% confidence interval for
1
2
is expressed as
(x
1
x
2
) E <
1
2
< ( x
1
x
2
) +E
This interval is the output of the TI83 function 2SampTInt.
TI83 function 2SampTInt (STAT / TESTS / 0: 2SampTInt)
Input:
x
1
,
s
1
,
n
1
,
x
2
,
s
2
,
n
2
, clevel, pooled: yes
Output: Interval from
(x
1
x
2
) E to (x
1
x
2
) + E
Where E is one half the interval length output by the 2SampTInt
function.
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Page 23 of 25)
Example 10
Suppose that a random sample of 29 college students was divided
into two groups. The first group had 15 people and was given 1/2
liter of red wine before going to sleep. The second group of 14
people was not given alcohol before going to sleep. Both groups
went to sleep at 11 p.m. The average brain wave activity (in hertz)
between 4 and 6 a.m. was measured for each participant. The
results follow:
Group 1 16.0 19.6 19.9 20.9 20.3 20.1 16.4 20.6
20.1 22.3 18.8 19.1 17.4 21.1 22.1
x
1
= 19.65 hz ,
s
1
= 1.86 hz
Group 2 8.2 5.4 6.8 6.5 4.7 5.9 2.9
7.6 10.2 6.4 8.8 5.4 8.3 5.1
x
2
= 6.59 hz ,
s
2
= 1.91 hz
a. Are the groups independent?
b. Compute the 90% C.I. for
1
2
and write it in probability
notation.
c. Summarize the results of part b in a single sentence relevant to
this application.
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Page 24 of 25)
Guided Exercise 9
a. A study reported a 90% confidence interval for the difference
of the means to be
10 <
1
2
< 20. What can you conclude
about the values of
1
and
2
.
b. A study reported a 95% confidence interval for the difference
of proportions to be
0.32 < p
1
p
2
< 0.16. What can you
conclude about the values of
p
1
and
p
2
.
8.4 Estimating
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Page 25 of 25)
Confidence Interval for
p
1
p
2
(Large Samples)
If
n
1
p
1
> 5,
n
1
q
1
> 5,
n
2
p
2
> 5 and
n
2
q
2
> 5, then the c%
confidence interval for
p
1
p
2
is expressed as
( p
1
p
2
) E < p
1
p
2
< ( p
1
p
2
) + E
where E is the maximum error in using
p
1
p
2
as an estimate for
p
1
p
2
at a c% confidence level.
TI83 function 2PropZInt (STAT / TESTS / B: 2PropZInt)
Input:
r
1
= x
1
,
n
1
,
r
2
= x
2
,
n
2
, clevel
Output: Interval from
( p
1
p
2
) E to
( p
1
p
2
) + E
Where E is one half the interval length.
Exercise 14
The burn center at Community hospital is experimenting with a
new plasma compress treatment. A random sample of 316 patients
with minor burns received the plasma compress treatment. Of these
patients, 259 had no visible scars after treatment. Another random
sample of 419 patients with minor burns received no plasma
compress treatment. Of this group, 94 had no visible scars. Let
p
1
be the proportion of patients who received the plasma compress
treatment and had no visible scars after treatment. Let
p
2
be the
proportion of patients who did not receive the plasma compress
treatment but still had no visible scars.
a. Find the 95% confidence interval for
p
1
p
2
.
b. Summarize the results in a single sentence relevant to this
application.
Page 1 of 34
9.1 Hypothesis Testing
a. A statistical hypothesis, or simply a hypothesis, is an
assumption about a population parameter.
b. Hypothesis testing is the procedure whereby we decide to
reject or fail to reject a hypothesis.
c. Null hypothesis H
0
: This is the hypothesis (assumption) under
investigation or the statement being tested. The null hypothesis
is a statement that there is no effect, there is no difference,
or there is no change. The possible outcomes in testing a
null hypothesis are reject or fail to reject.
d. Alternate hypothesis H
1
: This is a statement you will adopt if
there is strong evidence (sample data) against the null
hypothesis. A statistical test is designed to assess the strength
of the evidence (data) against the null hypothesis.
e. Fail to Reject H
0
: We never say we accept H
0
 we can
only say we fail to reject it. Failing to reject H
0
means there
is NOT enough evidence in the data and in the test to justify
rejecting H
0
. So, we retain the H
0
knowing we have not
proven it true beyond all doubt.
f. Rejecting H
0
: This means there IS significant evidence in the
data and in the test to justify rejecting H
0
. When H
0
is rejected
the data is said to be statistically significant. We adopt H
1
knowing we will occasionally be wrong.
Page 2 of 34
Example 1
A car manufacturer advertises a car that gets 47 mpg. Let be the
mean mileage for this model. You assume that the dealer will not
underrate the mileage, but suspect he may overrate the mileage
a. What can be used for H
0
?
b. What can be used for H
1
?
Guided Exercise 1A
A company that manufactures ball bearings claims the average
diameter is 6 mm. To check that the average diameter is correct,
the company decides to formulate a statistical test.
a. What can be used for H
0
?
b. What can be used for H
1
?
Guided Exercise 1B
A consumer group wants to test the truth in a package delivery
companys claim that it takes an average of 24 hours to deliver a
package. Complaints have led the consumer group to suspect the
delivery time is longer than 24 hours.
a. What can be used for H
0
?
b. What can be used for H
1
?
Page 3 of 34
Types of Tests: Lefttailed, RightTailed, TwoTailed
The null hypothesis generally states the parameter of interest
equals a specific value; typically a historical value of a value of no
change. For example, H
0
:
= k . There are three types of
statistical tests, which are determined by the alternate hypothesis as
follows:
Level of Significance
The level of significance is the probability we are willing to risk
rejecting H
0
when it is true; it is typically between 1% or 5%.
In the above pictures, think of as the predetermined maximum
area in the tail(s). Since H
0
:
= k is a statement of no change,
and is assumed true, we reject H
0
only if we take a random sample
and the sample mean
x is so far away from the assumed mean (H
0
:
= k ) that it is statistically unlikely that the assumption
= k can
be true. That is, the area in the tail(s) must be less than or equal to
the level of significance , to reject H
0
.
LeftTail Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
< k
RightTail Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
> k
TwoTail Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
k
x
x
x
= k
= k
= k
FTR H
0
FTR H
0
FTR H
0
x
x
Page 4 of 34
Example 2
Let x be random variable that represents the heart rate in
beats per minute of Rosie, and old sheep dog. From past
experience the vet knows that x is normally distributed
with a mean of 115 bpm and standard deviation of = 12
bpm. Over the past several weeks Rosies heart rate (beats
/ min) was measured at
93 109 110 89 112 117
The sample mean is
x = 105.0. The vet is concerned that Rosies
heart rate may be slowing. At a 5% level of significance, does the
data indicate this is the case?
a. Establish the null hypothesis
(i.e. nothing has changed)
and the alternate hypothesis.
b. Draw the
x distribution.
Compute the probability of
obtaining a sample mean of
105 bpm or less when the
population mean is 115 bpm
(by assumption). This area
in the tail is called the P
value.
c. What can you conclude
about Rosies heartbeat?
Page 5 of 34
Pvalue
Assuming H
0
is true, the probability that the test statistic will take
on values as extreme or more extreme than the observed test
statistic is called the Pvalue of the test. The smaller the Pvalue
computed from the sample data, the stronger the evidence against
H
0
. In the
x distributions below, the Pvalue is the total area in the
tail(s).
Type I and Type II Errors
A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis H
0
. A
Type II error occurs when we fail to reject a false null
hypothesis H
0
. For a given sample size reducing the probability of
a type I error increases the probability of a type II error, and visa
versa.
The probability of a type I error we are willing to accept in an
application is called the level of significance, denoted (alpha).
Alpha is specified in advance.
= P(making a type I error) = P(rejecting a true H
0
)
e.g. If = 0.05, then we say we are using a 5% level of
significance. This means that in 100 similar situations H
0
will
be rejected 5 times (on average) when it was true and should
not have been.
= k
LeftTail Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
< k
RightTail Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
> k
TwoTail Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
k
= k
= k
x
x
x
Area = Pvalue
Area =
Pvalue
2
x
Page 6 of 34
Example 3
Reconsider Example 1 where
H
0
: = 47 mpg H
1
: < 47 mpg
a. Suppose = 0.05. Describe a type I error and its probability.
A type I error is rejecting a true null hypothesis; in this case
rejecting the dealers claim that = 47 mpg and concluding
that < 47 mpg when in fact the average number of miles per
gallon is 47 or higher. P(type 1 error) = 0.05.
b. Describe a type II error
A type II error is failing to reject a false null hypothesis. In
this case we fail to reject the manufacturers claim that =
47 mpg when in fact < 47 mpg.
Guided Exercise 2
Recall the ballbearing example where H
0
: = 6 mm and H
1
:
6 mm. Suppose = 0.01.
a. Describe a type I error and its consequences and probability.
The probability of a type I error is 1%, the level of
significance. A type I error would mean that we rejected the
manufacturers claim the = 6 mm when in fact the average
diameter was 6 mm. The consequence of a type I error in this
application would be needless adjustment and delay in the
manufacturing process.
b. Describe a type II error and its consequences
A type II error would mean that we failed to reject the
manufacturers claim the = 6 mm when in fact
6mm.
The consequence of a type II error in this application would be
the production of many bearings that do not meet
specifications.
Page 7 of 34
Statistical Test Conclusions and Meanings
For a given, preset level of significance , and a Pvalue
computed from the sample data:
1. If Pvalue , then H
o
is rejected. That is, there is enough
evidence in the [sample] data to reject H
0
. This means we
chose the alternate hypothesis H
1
knowing we have not proven
H
1
beyond all doubt.
2. If Pvalue > , then we fail to reject H
0
. That is, there is not
enough evidence in the [sample] data to reject H
0
. This means
we retain H
0
knowing we have not proven it beyond all doubt.
Example 4
A car manufacturer advertises a car that gets 47 mpg. Suppose that
we sampled 40 cars and found a mean gas mileage of 46.26 mpg.
The standard deviation is = 2.22 mpg. Test the manufacturers
claim at a 5% level of significance ( = 0.05).
a. Establish the null and alternate hypotheses.
H
0
: = 47 mpg H
1
: < 47 mpg
b. Draw the normal
x distribution
and show the null hypothesis and
sample statistic on the axis. Label
the axis; include the units.
c. Compute the pvalue.
pvalue = normalcdf(0, 46.26, 47, 2.22 / 40 ) = 0.0175
Page 8 of 34
d. Conclude the test. Interpret its meaning in this application.
The pvalue is 0.018. Since the p value = 0.018 = 0.05, we
reject H
0
, which means at a 5% level of significance the sample
data is significant and supports that the mean car mileage is less
than 47 mpg.
e. Repeat part d, but test the manufacturers claim at a 1% level of
significance ( = 0.01).
The pvalue is 0.018. Since the p value = 0.018 > = 0.01, we
fail to reject H
0
, which means at a 5% level of significance the
sample data is not strong enough to say the mean car mileage is
less than 47 mpg.
Page 9 of 34
9.1 Homework
1. Do problems 18 all.
2. On problems 914 follow these steps: Example
(a) Write the null and alternate
hypotheses. Include units.
(b) Compute the standard error
x
= / n . Then sketch the
normal curve and the area under
the curve that represents the p
value. Label the axis to include
the assumption in the null
hypotheses and 3 standard
deviation on both sides. Include
units.
(c) Compute the pvalue (without
using the ZTest function).
(d) Conclude the test. That is, if the
Pvalue , then reject H
0
,
otherwise do not reject H
0
.
(e) Summarize the results.
H
0
: = 47 mpg
H
1
: < 47 mpg
p value = area in the tail(s)
= normalcdf (0, 46.26, 47,
2.22
40
)
= 0.0175
p value = 0.0175 < = 0.05
Reject H
0
At a 5% l.o.s. the sample data is
significant and supports that the
mean car mileage is less than 47
mpg.
x, mpg
47
4
6
.
6
5
4
6
.
3
0
4
5
.
9
5
sample mean
x = 46.26
from
H
0
Page 10 of 34
9.2 Testing the Mean
Example 3 Testing the Mean when is Known
Some scientists believe sunspot activity is related to drought
duration. Let x by a random variable representing the number of
sunspots observed in a fourweek period. A random sample of 40
such periods in Spanish colonial times gave the following data:
12.5 14.1 37.6 48.3 67.3 70.0 43.8 56.5 59.7 24.0
12.0 27.4 53.5 73.9 104.0 54.6 4.4 177.3 70.1 54.0
28.0 13.0 6.5 134.7 114.0 72.7 81.2 24.1 20.4 13.3
9.4 25.7 47.8 50.0 45.3 61.0 39.0 12.0 7.2 11.3
The sample mean is
x 47.0. Previous studies indicate that
= 35. It is thought that for thousands of years, the mean number
of sunspots per fourweek period was about
= 41. Do the data
indicate, at a 5% level of significance, that the sunspot activity
during the Spanish colonial period was higher than 41?
a. Establish the hypotheses.
b. What does a 5% level of significance mean in this application?
We are willing to tolerate at most a 5% probability of rejecting
a true null hypothesis. That is, assuming H
0
:
= 41 is true, to
reject H
0
means the probability that a sample
x is as extreme
or more extreme than our observed sample statistic (
x 47.0)
must be less than
= 0.05.
c. Explain the meaning of the Pvalue in this application.
Assuming H
0
:
= 41 is true, the Pvalue is the probability that
a sample
x is as extreme or more extreme than our observed
sample statistic (
x 47.0).
Page 11 of 34
d. Draw the
x distribution.
Place the null hypothesis and
the observed
x on the axis.
Then compute the Pvalue.
e. Conclude the test. That is, if the Pvalue , then reject H
0
,
otherwise do not reject H
0
.
f. Interpret your results.
Page 12 of 34
9.2 Exercises #116: Steps to Test the Mean
1. Establish H
0
and H
1
:
LeftTailed
Test
RightTailed
Test
TwoTailed
Test
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
< k
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
> k
H
0
:
= k
H
1
:
k
2. Indicate which test you are using. The output for either test is
the Pvalue.
a. If is known, then the convention is to
compute the Pvalue with a normal
distribution. The ZTest uses a normal
distribution (STAT / TESTS / 1: ZTest).
b. If is NOT known, then the convention is
to compute the Pvalue with the more
conservative Students tDistribution (STAT /
TESTS / 2: TTest).
3. Conclude the Test: If Pvalue , then the sample data is
significant and we reject H
0
, otherwise we do not reject H
o
.
4. State your conclusions in the context of the application.
Page 13 of 34
Example 3
A zoo wishes to obtain eggs from a rare river turtle so they can be
hatched and raised to preserve the species. Carol, a staff biologist,
finds a nest of 36 eggs she suspects to be from the rare turtle
species. Research has shown that the size of rare turtle eggs are
normally distributed with a population mean of
= 7.50 cm.
Furthermore, the mean length of the eggs of the other (common)
turtle species is known to be longer than 7.50 cm, For the sample,
the mean length of the 36 eggs is
x = 7.74 cm. The standard
deviation of all turtle eggs is = 1.5 cm. So, Carol is concerned
that the eggs may have come from a common turtle species. Do the
data indicate that the eggs from the rare river turtle at a 5% level of
significance.
1. Establish H
0
and H
1
. H
0
:
= 7.50 cm
H
1
:
> 7.50 cm
2. State the possible conclusions and their interpretations in this
application.
3. Explain a 5% level of significance in this application. Explain
how serious a type I error is in this application?
Test Conclusion Interpretation of the Result
Fail to reject H
0
At a 5% level of significance the sample
data is not strong enough to reject H
0
. That
is, the sample evidence is not strong
enough to say the eggs are from the
common turtle.
Reject H
0
At a 5% level of significance the sample
data is statistically significant and is
sufficient to reject H
0
, which suggests the
eggs are from the common turtle. We will
be wrong at most =5% of the time.
Page 14 of 34
A 5% level of significance means we are taking a 5% risk of a
type 1 error a 5% risk of rejecting a true H
0
. In this
application we are only willing to take a 5% chance of
rejecting that the eggs are from the rare river turtle.
5. Find the probability that our assumed mean in the null
hypothesis (H
0
:
= 7.50 cm) is at or further away than the
test statistic (
x ). That is, find the Pvalue.
6. Conclude the test.
7. Interpret the results.
Page 15 of 34
Example 5
The drug 6mP (6mercoptopurine) is used to treat leukemia. The
following data represent the remission times (in weeks) for a
random sample of 21 patients using 6mP.
10 7 32 23 22 6 16 34 32
25 11 20 19 6 17 35 6 13
9 6 10
The sample mean is 17.1 weeks with a sample standard deviation
of 10.0 weeks. Let x be a random variable representing the
remission times (in weeks) for all patients. Assume the x
distribution is moundshaped and symmetric. A previous drug
treatment had a remission time of 12.5 weeks. At a 1% level of
significance do the data indicate the mean remission time for 6mP
is different (either way)?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show your work and/or indicate the test used on your
calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 16 of 34
Example 6
Archeologists become excited when they find an anomaly in a
newly discovered artifact. The anomaly may or may not indicate a
new trading region or a new method of craftsmanship. Suppose the
lengths of arrowheads at a certain site have a mean length of
= 2.6 cm. A random sample of 61 recently discovered
arrowheads in an adjacent cliff dwelling had a sample mean length
of 2.92 cm. The standard deviation is = 0.85 cm. Do these data
indicate that the mean length of arrowheads in the adjacent cliff
dwelling is longer than 2.6 cm? Use a 1% level of significance.
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show your work and/or indicate the test used on your
calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 17 of 34
Example 7
By taking thousands of practice shots at driving ranges, Pam
knows her mean distance using a #1 wood is 225 yards with a
standard deviation = 25yards. Taking 100 shots with a new ball,
Pam found her sample mean distance was 230 yards. At a 5%
level of significance, determine if Pam improved her driving
distance using the new ball?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show your work and/or indicate the test used on your
calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 18 of 34
Example 8
A large company with offices around the world occasionally must
move their employees from one city to another. From long
experience, the company knows its employees move on average
once every 8.50 years with a standard deviation of 3.62 years.
Recent trends have led some to believe a change might have
occurred. A sample of 48 employees were asked the number of
years since the company last moved them. The mean time was
7.91 years. Has the mean time between moves significantly
changed? Use = 0.05.
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Without using the ZTest, find the Pvalue of the test statistic
and conclude the test. Show your work and/or indicate the test
used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 19 of 34
Guided Exercise 5
Production records show that a machine that makes bottle caps
makes caps with a mean diameter of 1.85 cm and a standard
deviation of 0.05 cm. An inspector measured a random sample of
64 caps and found a mean diameter of 1.87 cm. At a 1% level of
significance, determine if the machine slipped out of adjustment?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Without using the ZTest, find the Pvalue of the test statistic
and conclude the test. Show your work and/or indicate the test
used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 20 of 34
Confidence Interval versus Twotailed Hypothesis Test
Suppose a twotailed hypothesis test has a level of significance
and null hypothesis H
0
:
=
0
. Let c be the confidence level for
the mean based on the sample data. Then
c = 1 and
1. H
0
is not rejected whenever
0
falls inside the c confidence
interval for the mean .
2. H
0
is rejected whenever
0
falls outside the c confidence
interval for the mean .
Exercise 19, Section 9.2
Consider a twotailed hypothesis test with
= 0.01 and
H
0
:
= 20 H
1
:
20
A random sample of size 36 has a sample mean of 22. It is known
the standard deviation =4. Use = 0.03.
a. Use hypothesis testing to see if there is sufficient evidence to
reject H
0
.
b. Solve using a confidence interval.
i. What is the confidence level corresponding to a level of
significance of 0.03? Find the ____% confidence
interval for the mean
x .
We are ____% confident that the population mean is
between ________ and ________.
ii. Do we reject or fail to reject H
0
based on the 97%
confidence interval.
Page 21 of 34
9.3 Testing a Proportion p
Setup and Assumptions
1. Let r be the binomial random variable representing the number
of successes out of n trials.
2. The sample size n is large so that it can be approximated by a
normal distribution. That is,
np > 5 and
nq > 5.
3. For the probability of success use
p = r / n for the point
estimate of the population parameter p.
4. The possible sets of hypotheses are:
LeftTailed
Test
RightTailed
Test
TwoTailed
Test
H
0
:
p = k
H
1
:
p < k
H
0
:
p = k
H
1
:
p > k
H
0
:
p = k
H
1
:
p k
5. TI84: STAT / TESTS / 1PropZTest
Input: p
0
: from the H
0
x: the number of successes (the rvalue)
n: number of trials
< p
0
, > p
0
,
p
0
depending on H
1
Output: the Pvalue
6. Conclude the Test: If Pvalue , then the sample data is
significant and we reject H
0
, otherwise we conclude the
sample data is not strong enough to reject H
o
.
7. Summarize your conclusion in the specific situation.
Page 22 of 34
Example 9
A team of eye surgeons has developed a new technique for a risky
eye operation to restore the sight of people blinded from a certain
disease. Under the old method, only 30% of the patients recovered
their eyesight. Surgeons have performed the new technique 225
times and 88 of those patients have recovered their sight. Can we
justify the claim that the new technique is better than the old one at
a 1% level of significance?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 23 of 34
Example 10
A botanist has produced a new variety of hybrid wheat that is
better able to withstand drought than other varieties. He knows
that 80% of the seeds from the parent plants germinate. He claims
the hybrid has the same germination rate. To test this claim, 400
seeds from the hybrid plant are tested and 312 germinated. Test the
botanist claim at a 5% level of significance.
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results.
Page 24 of 34
9.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences
(Dependent Samples)
Dependent Samples
Dependant samples have data that are naturally paired.
Dependent samples occur naturally in many applications, such as
before and after situations where the same object is measured
before and after a treatment. In such cases the difference in the
two measures is tested.
Examples of Dependent Samples
a. A shoe manufacturer claims that among adults in the United
States, the left foot is longer than the right foot.
b. A weekend refresher math course is administered to new
students. An exam is administered to each student before and
after the course.
Page 25 of 34
Testing the Difference, d, of Paired Data
a. It is assumed the paired data are such that the difference d
between the first and second members of each pair are
approximately normally distributed with a population mean
d
.
b. A random sample of n data pairs with sample mean d and
sample standard deviation s
d
follow a Students t distribution
and can be tested with STAT / TESTS / 2: TTest.
c. The possible sets of hypotheses to be tested are:
LeftTailed
Test
RightTailed
Test
TwoTailed
Test
H
0
:
d
= 0
H
1
:
d
< 0
H
0
:
d
= 0
H
1
:
d
> 0
H
0
:
d
= 0
H
1
:
d
0
4. TI83: STAT / TESTS / 2: TTest
Input:
0
: from the H
0
x : the mean of the differences
d
s
x
: standard deviation of
d ,
s
d
n: number of pairs in the sample
: <
0
, >
0
,
0
depending on H
1
Output: the Pvalue
5. Conclude the Test: If Pvalue , then the sample data is
significant and we reject H
0
, otherwise we conclude the
sample data is not strong enough to reject H
o
.
6. Interpret the results (specific to application).
Page 26 of 34
Example 10
Heart surgeons know that many patients who undergo heart
surgery have a dangerous buildup of anxiety before the operation.
Psychiatric counseling may relieve some of that anxiety. The data
shown are the anxiety scores of patients before and after
counseling.
Higher scores
mean higher
levels of anxiety.
Can we conclude
that counseling
reduces anxiety?
Use = 0.01.
1. Establish the
hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Patient
B
Score before
counseling
A
Score after
counseling
d = A B
Difference
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
121
93
105
115
130
98
142
118
125
76
93
64
117
82
80
79
67
89
45
0
41
2
48
18
63
51
36
Page 27 of 34
Example 11
To test the quality of two brands of tires, one tire of each brand
was placed on six test
cars. After 6 months the
amount of wear on each
tire was measured in
thousandths of inches.
Can we conclude the
two tire brands show
unequal wear at a 2%
level of significance?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Car Soapstone Bigyear
Difference
d = S  B
1
2
3
4
5
6
132
71
90
37
93
107
140
74
110
36
105
119
8
3
20
1
12
12
Page 28 of 34
9.5 Testing
1
2
and
p
1
p
2
(Independent Samples)
Samples are independent if there is no relationship whatsoever
between specific values of the two distributions.
Example 12
A teacher wishes to compare the effectiveness of two teaching
methods. Students are randomly divided into two groups: The first
group is taught by method 1 and the second group by method 2. At
the end of the course, a comprehensive exam is given to all
students. The mean scores,
x
1
and
x
2
, of the two groups are
compared. Are the samples independent or dependent?
Example 13
A shoe manufacturer claims that for U.S. adults the average length
of the left foot is longer than the average length of the right foot. A
random sample of 60 adults is drawn and the length of both their
left and right feet are measured and averaged as
x
1
and
x
2
,
respectively. Are the samples independent or dependent?
Theorem 9.2
Let x
1
have a normal distribution with mean
1
and standard
deviation
1
. Let x
2
have a normal distribution with mean
2
and
standard deviation
2
. Suppose random sample of size n
1
and n
2
are taken from the respective distributions. Then the variable
x
1
x
2
has
1. A normal distribution.
2. Mean
1
2
3. Standard deviation
1
2
/ n
1
2
2
/ n
2
Page 29 of 34
Steps for Section 9.5 Problems
1. Establish H
0
and H
1
.
LeftTailed
Test
RightTailed
Test
TwoTailed
Test
H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1
<
2
H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1
>
2
H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1
2
2. Indicate which test you are using.
a. If
1
and
2
are known, then the convention is to
compute the Pvalue with a normal distribution. The 2
SampZTest uses a normal distribution (STAT / TESTS /
3: 2SampZTest).
b. If
1
and
2
are not known, then the convention is to
compute the Pvalue with the more conservative Students
tDistribution (STAT / TESTS / 4: 2SampTTest). Input
the sample standard deviation s.
3. Conclude the Test: If Pvalue , then the sample data is
significant and we reject H
0
, otherwise we conclude the
sample data is not strong enough to reject H
o
.
4. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Page 30 of 34
Example 14
A consumer group measures the heating capacity of camp stoves
by measuring the time it takes the stove to boil 2 quarts of water
from 50
0
F. Two competing models were tested:
Model 1:
x
1
= 11.4 min
1
= 2.5 min
n
1
= 10
Model 2:
x
2
= 9.9 min
2
= 2.5 min
n
2
= 12
Is there a difference in the performance of the two models at a 5%
level of significance?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Page 31 of 34
Example 15
Two competing headache remedies claim to give fastacting relief.
An experiment was performed to compare the mean lengths of
time required for bodily adsorption of brand A and brand B:
Brand A:
x
1
= 21.8 min
s
1
= 8.7 min
n
1
= 12
Brand B:
x
2
= 18.9 min
s
2
= 7.5 min
n
2
= 12
Assuming both distributions are approximately normal, test the
claim that there is no difference in the mean time required for
bodily absorption.
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Page 32 of 34
Testing Two Proportions p
1
& p
2
STAT / TESTS / 6: 2PropZTest
Example 16
The Macek County Clerk wishes to improve voter registration.
One method under consideration is to send reminders in the mail to
all citizens in the county who are eligible to register. A random
sample of 1250 potential register voters was taken.
Group 1: There were 625 people in this group. No reminders
to register were sent to them. The number of
potential voters from this group who registered was
295.
Group 2: There were 625 people in this group. Reminders to
register were sent to them. The number of potential
voters from this group who registered was 350.
At a 5% level of significance, did reminders improve voter
registration?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Page 33 of 34
Guided Exercise 11
The Macek County Clerk wishes to improve voter registration.
One method under consideration is to send reminders in the mail to
all citizens in the county who are eligible to register. A random
sample of 1100 potential register voters was taken.
Group 1: There were 500 people in this group. No reminders
to register were sent to them. The number of
potential voters from this group who registered was
248.
Group 2: There were 600 people in this group. Reminders to
register were sent to them. The number of potential
voters from this group who registered was 332.
At a 1% level of significance, did reminders improve voter
registration?
1. Establish the hypotheses.
2. Find the Pvalue of the test statistic and conclude the test.
Show the test used on your calculator to compute the Pvalue.
3. Interpret the results [specific to the context of the application].
Page 34 of 34
TI83/84
STAT / TESTS menu Section Description
1: ZTest 9.2 Testing the mean when is known. Be
able to do these problems without using
the ZTest function. That is, sketch the
distribution and compute the pvalue using
the normalcdf function.
2: TTest 9.2, 9.4 Testing the mean when is not
known, or testing dependent paired data
d
= 0.
3: 2SampZTest 9.5 Testing two mean
1
2
when
1
and
2
are known.
4: 2SampTTest 9.5 Testing two mean
1
2
when
1
and
2
are not known.
5: 1PropZTest 9.3 Testing a proportion p.
6: 2PropZTest 9.5 Testing two proportions.
7: ZInterval 8.1 Estimating when is known. Be able
to do these problems without using the
ZInterval function. That is, sketch the
distribution and compute the interval using
the invNorm function.
8: TInterval 8.2 Estimating when is not known.
9: 2SampZInt 8.5 Estimating
1
2
when
1
and
2
are
known.
0: 2SampTInt 8.5 Estimating
1
2
when
1
and
2
are
known.
A: 1PropZInt 8.3 Estimating p when the Binomial
Distribution.
B: 2PropZInt 8.5 Estimating p
1
p
2
10.1 Scatter Diagrams (Page 1 of 13)
10.1 Paired Data and Scatter Diagrams
Linear Equations
Linear equations (or linear functions) graph as straight lines and
can be written in the form:
y = bx + a
where (0, a) is the yintercept, and
b = slope of the line =
rise
run
=
y
2
y
1
x
2
x
1
Example A
a. Identify the slope and y
intercept in each of the
equations.
b. Graph each equation using
the yintercept and the slope.
c. Graph each equation using the TI83.
Equation
y = bx + a
Slope
b
yintercept
(0, a)
y = 2x 5
y =
2
3
x + 3
y = 5
y = x
4
4
 4
 4
y
x
4
4
 4
 4
y
x
10.1 Scatter Diagrams (Page 2 of 13)
Scatter Diagram; Explanatory & Response Variables
A scatter diagram is a plot of orderedpair (x, y) data. We call x
the explanatory variable and y the response variable.
Example 1
Phosphorous, a chemical in many household and industrial
cleaning compounds, often finds its way into surface water. A
random sample of eight sites in California wetlands gave the
following information about phosphorous reduction in drainage
water. In this study, x represents phosphorous concentration (in
100 mg/l) at the inlet of a biotreatment facility and y represents
the phosphorous
concentration at the
outlet of the facility.
a. Make a scatter diagram
of the data. Label and
scale the axes. Then draw
a best fit linear model
through the data.
b. Do x and y appear to be
linearly related?
c. Use the linear model
(line) to predict the outlet
concentration of
phosphorous if the inlet
concentration is 700
mg/l.
d. Use the linear model to predict the inlet concentration of
phosphorous if the outlet concentration is 200 mg/l.
x 5.2 7.3 6.7 5.9 6.1 8.3 5.5 7.0
y 3.3 5.9 4.8 4.5 4.0 7.1 3.6 6.1
10.1 Scatter Diagrams (Page 3 of 13)
Linear Correlation
If the scatter plot of ordered pair data, represented by variables x
and y, trends roughly into a straight line, then we say that x and y
are linearly correlated.
Linear correlation is classified in two general ways:
1. Degree: none, lowmoderate, high, perfect
Perfect linear correlation means that all (x, y) ordered pairs of
data lie on the same straight line.
2. Sign or slope: positive or negative
i. Positive linear correlation means that high values of x
correlate with high values of y, and low values of x correlate
with low values of y. The graph has a positive slope (and
trends upward from left to right).
ii. Negative linear correlation means that high values of x
correlate with low values of y, and low values of x correlate
with high values of y. The graph has a negative slope (and
trends downward from left to right).
See figures 101, 102, 104 Guided Exercise 2, Table 2, and
Exercises 1 & 2
10.1 Scatter Diagrams (Page 4 of 13)
Guided Exercise 1
An industrial plant has 7 divisions that do the
same type of work. A safety inspector tracks x
= the number of workhours devoted to
safety training and y = the number of work
hours lost due to accidents. The results are
shown.
(a) Make a scatter diagram for the data.
(b) Make a scatter diagram on
your calculator. Enter the xvalues
into L
1
and the yvalues into L
2
.
Turn the STAT PLOT on and
adjust the window settings to
(c) Draw a best fit line
through the data and classify the
linear correlation as (i) none, low
moderate, high, or perfect, and (ii)
positive or negative.
(d) Use your linear model (i.e. read from the line) to predict the
number of safety training hours needed so that 20 workhours are
lost due to accidents.
(e) Use your linear model (i.e. read from the line) to predict the
number of workhours are lost due to accidents when 30 hours are
spent on safety training.
Division x y
1 10.0 80
2 19.5 65
3 30.0 68
4 45.0 55
5 50.0 35
6 65.0 10
7 80.0 12
10.1 Scatter Diagrams (Page 5 of 13)
Sample Correlation Coefficient r
The correlation coefficient r is a unitless numerical measure that
assesses the strength of linear relationship between two variables x
and y. See table 102.
1.
1 r 1
2. If r = 1, there is perfect positive linear correlation.
3. If
r = 1, there is perfect negative linear correlation.
4. The closer r is to 1 or 1, the better a line describes the
relationship between x and y.
5. If r is positive, then as x increases, y increases.
6. If r is negative, then as x increases, y decreases.
7. The value of r is the same regardless of which variable is the
explanatory and which is the response variable. Data plotted
as (x, y) and (y, x) will have the same value for r.
Computation of r
1. Turn DiagnosticOn in the CATALOG menu.
2. Enter the xvalues into L
1
and the yvalues into L
2
.
3. STAT / CALC/4: LinReg(ax+b) L
x
,L
y
,Y
1
4. Highlight Calculate and press ENTER. Then scroll down
to find the value of r.
Guided Exercise 1
(f) Find the sample correlation coefficient for the data in guided
exercise 1.
Sample versus Population Correlation Coefficient r
r = sample correlation coefficient computed from a random
sample of (x, y) data pairs.
= population correlation coefficient computed from all
population data pairs (x, y).
10.1 Scatter Diagrams (Page 6 of 13)
Lurking Variables
In ordered pairs (x, y), x is called the explanatory variable and y
is called the response variable. When r indicates a linear
correlation between x and y, a change in the values of y tends to
respond to changes in values of x according to a linear model. A
lurking variable is a variable that is neither an explanatory nor a
response variable. Yet, a lurking variable may be responsible for
changes in both x and y. Correlation does not necessarily mean
causation.
Example 3
It has been observed in a certain community that over the years the
correlation between x, the number of people going to church, and
y, the number of people in jail, was r = 0.90. Does going to church
cause people to go to jail, or visa versa? Explain.
10.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination (Page 7 of 13)
10.2 Linear Regression and the
Coefficient of Determination
LeastSquares Linear Regression Line
The leastsquares linear regression line is the line that fits the (x,
y) data points in such a manner that the sum of the squares of all
the vertical distances from the data points to the line is a small as
possible. The point
(x, y) is always on the leastsquares
regression line.
Computing the Linear Regression Line on the TI83/84
STAT / CALC / 4: LinReg(ax+b) L
x
, L
y
, Y
1
Output: a and b in
y = bx + a
10.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination (Page 8 of 13)
Example 4
In Denali national Park, Alaska, the wolf population is dependent
on the caribou population. Let x represent the caribou population
(in hundreds) and y represent the
wolf population. A random sample
in recent gave the following
information.
(a) Identify the explanatory and
response variables.
(b) Make a scatter diagram of the
data.
(c) Find the linear regression line for the data. Graph the LSRL
write at least 2 points on the line.
(d) Interpret the slope of the line in this application.
(e) Predict the size of the wolf population when the caribou
population is 2100. Is this interpolation or extrapolation?
(f) Predict the size of the wolf population when the caribou
population is 4000. Is this interpolation or extrapolation?
x 30 34 27 25 17 23 20
y 66 79 70 60 48 55 60
10.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination (Page 9 of 13)
Coefficient of Determination r
2
If r is the correlation coefficient, then
r
2
is called the coefficient
of determination and
r
2
=
Explained Variation
Total Variation
.
1. The value of
r
2
is the ratio of explained variation over total
variation. That is,
r
2
is the fractional amount of the total
variation in y that can be explained by using the linear model
y = bx + a with x as the explanatory variable.
2.
1 r
2
is the fractional amount of the total variation in y that is
due to random chance or to the possibility of lurking variables
that influence y.
Example 4A
(a) Find r and r
2
for example 4.
(b) Explain the value of r
2
in this application.
(c) Explain the value of
1 r
2
in this application.
Change on Directions for 10.2 Exercises
Do the following in problems 718:
(a) View the scatter diagram of the data on your calculator to
verify a linear model is appropriate.
(b) Find a and b for the leastsquares regression line
y = bx + a. Then find r,
r
2
,
x and
y .
(c) Graph the regression line from part (b). Be sure the point
(x, y) is on the graph.
(d) Interpret the values of
r
2
in one sentence relevant to the
application. Interpret the values of
1 r
2
in one sentence
relevant to the application.
10.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination (Page 10 of 13)
Guided Exercise 3
Quick Sell car dealership runs 1minute TV advertisements and
tracks x = the number of ads that week. and y = the number of
cars sold that week.
x 6 20 0 14 25 16 28 18 10 8
y 15 31 10 16 28 20 40 25 12 15
Complete steps (a) (d). Then find
the predicted number of cars sold per
week if the budget only allows 12
ads to be run per week.
(a) View the scatter diagram of the
data on your calculator to verify
a linear model is appropriate.
(b) Find a and b for the least
squares regression line
y = bx + a. Then find r,
r
2
,
x
and
y .
(c) Graph the regression line from part (b). Be sure the point
(x, y) is on the graph.
(d) Interpret the values of
r
2
in one sentence relevant to the
application. Interpret the values of
1 r
2
in one sentence
relevant to the application.
10.3 Testing the Correlation Coefficient (Page 11 of 13)
10.3 Testing the Correlation Coefficient
The population correlation coefficient (rho, read row) is
estimated by the statistic r.
If we assume the variables x and y are normally distributed and
want to test if they are correlated in the population, then we set the
null hypothesis to say they are not correlated:
H
0
: = 0 x and y are not correlated at the given level of
significance.
Theorem
Let random variables x and y be
normally distributed. If
= 0 (as
assumed in the null hypothesis), then
the distribution of sample correlation
coefficients (the r values) is normally
distributed about r = 0.
raxis
Distribution of r values
when
= 0
10.3 Testing the Correlation Coefficient (Page 12 of 13)
Example 6
Do college graduates have an improved chance of a better income?
Let x = percentage of the population 25 or older with at least 4
years of college and y = percentage growth in per capita income
over the past seven years. A random sample of six communities in
Ohio gave the information in the
table.
(a) Find the correlation
coefficient r.
(b) Test to see if the correlation coefficient is positive at a 1%
level of significance.
(c) Summarize your conclusions in one sentence relevant to this
application.
10.3 Homework
Do Exercises 712 parts (b) and (d) only.
x 9.9 11.4 8.1 14.7 8.5 12.6
y 37.1 43 33.4 47.1 26.5 40.2
10.3 Testing the Correlation Coefficient (Page 13 of 13)
Exercise 10.3 #3
What is the optimal time for a scuba diver to be at the bottom of
the ocean? The navy defines optimal time to be the time at each
depth for the best balance between length of work period and
decompression time after surfacing. Let x = depth of a dive in
meters, and y = optimal
time in hours. A random
sample of divers gave the
following data.
(b) Use a 1% level of significance to test the claim that
< 0.
(d) Find the predicted optimal time for a dive depth of 18 meters.
x 14.1 24.3 30.2 38.3 51.3 20.5 22.7
y 2.58 2.08 1.58 1.03 0.75 2.38 2.20
11.1 Chi Square,
2
: Tests for Independence
Example 1
A keyboard manufacturer wants to know: Is the time a new
student takes to learn to type independent or the arrangement of the
letters on the keyboard? Three hundred beginning typing students
were randomly assigned to learn to type 20 wpm on three different
keyboards. The observed data is in the table below. Use a 1%
level of significance.
1. The company would test the following hypotheses:
H
0
: Keyboard letter arrangement and learning times are
independent.
H
1
: Keyboard letter arrangement and learning times are not
independent.
2. Enter the contingency matrix into a matrix.
i. MATRIX / EDIT / [A]
ii. Enter the number of rows (3) and the number
of columns (3).
iii. Enter each element in the contingency matrix
rowbyrow.
Keyboard 2140 h 4160 h 6180 h Total
A 25 30 25 80
B 30 71 19 120
Standard 35 49 16 100
Total 90 150 60 300
3. Compute the pvalue using STAT / TESTS / C:
2
Test
4. State your conclusion in a sentence relevant to the problem.
A =
25 30 25
30 71 19
35 49 16
11.1 Exercise 8
After a large fund drive for the City Library, the following
information was obtained from a random sample of contributors to
the library. Use a 1% level of significance to test the claim that
the amount contributed to the library is independent of ethnic
group.
Ethnic
Group
150
($)
51100
($)
101150
($)
151200
($)
$201+ Total
A 310 715 201 105 42 1373
B 619 511 312 97 22 1561
C 402 624 217 88 35 1336
D 544 571 309 79 29 1532
Total 1875 2421 1039 369 128 5832
11.2 Chi Square,
2
: Goodness of Fit
Example 1
Last year management listed five items and asked each employee
to mark the one item most important to him/her. The percentage
results are in the third column of the table. This year the managers
asked 500 employees the same thing and observed the results in
column 2. Test to see if this years distribution fits last years at a
1% level of significance.
Item Observed, O Expected % Expected, E
(O E)
2
E
Vacation 30 4%
Salary 290 65%
Safety 70 13%
Retirement 70 12%
Overtime 40 6%
Total 500 100% 500
1. Setup the
2
goodnessoffit hypotheses:
H
0
: The population fits the given distribution (i.e. last years)
H
1
: The population this year ha a different distribution than last
years.
2. Compute the
2
value.
2
=
(O E)
2
E
3. Sketch the
2
distribution and find the critical value
2
(the
minimum
2
required to reject H
0
) from table 8. The degrees
of freedom df = (number of data rows) 1.
4. State your conclusions.
11.2 Exercise 2
The type of household for the entire United States and a random
sample of 411 households in Dove Creek is given in the table. .
Test to see if Dove Creeks distribution of households is the same
as the U.S. distribution at a 5% level of significance.
Item U.S. %
Number in
Dove Creek
Expected, E
(O E)
2
E
Married
w/children
26% 102
Married w/o
children
29% 112
Single
Parent
9% 33
One
Person
25% 96
Other
11% 68
1. Setup the
2
goodnessoffit hypotheses:
H
0
: The distribution of household type in Dove Creek fits the
distribution in the U.S.
H
1
: The distribution of household type in Dove Creek is different
than the distribution in the U.S.
2. Compute the
2
value.
2
=
(O E)
2
E
3. Sketch the
2
distribution and find the critical value
2
(the
minimum
2
required to reject H
0
) from table 8. The degrees of
freedom df = (number of data rows) 1.
4. State your conclusions.