US Web order daily rates (fwd 30 dma)

Datetime (PST) Order# days orders rate

08/28/2000 00:00 911 158 421 2.7
02/02/2001 00:00 1332 87 232 2.7
04/30/2001 00:00 1564 92 246 2.7
07/31/2001 00:00 1810 31 91 2.9
08/31/2001 00:00 1901 30 93 3.1
09/30/2001 00:00 1994 31 101 3.2
10/31/2001 00:00 2095 30 102 3.4
11/30/2001 00:00 2197 31 111 3.6
12/31/2001 00:00 2308 31 116 3.8
01/31/2002 00:00 2424 28 110 3.9
02/28/2002 00:00 2534 31 128 4.1
03/31/2002 00:00 2662 30 130 4.3
04/30/2002 00:00 2792 31 141 4.5
05/31/2002 00:00 2933 30 143 4.8
06/30/2002 00:00 3076 18 90 5.0
07/17/2002 00:00 3160 34 280 8.2
07/18/2002 00:00 3166 33 274 8.3
08/20/2002 00:00 3440 108 852 7.9
12/06/2002 00:00 4292 55 379 6.9
01/30/2003 00:00 4671 29.00 145 5.0 55.0
02/28/2003 00:00 4816 31.00 160 5.1 29.0
03/31/2003 00:00 4975 30.00 160 5.3 31.0
04/30/2003 00:00 5135 31.00 170 5.5 30.0
05/31/2003 00:00 5305 23.00 130 5.6 31.0
06/23/2003 00:00 5435 47.00 248 5.3 23.0
08/09/2003 00:00 5683 38.00 256 6.74 47.0
09/16/2003 00:00 5939 11.00 89 8.09 38.0
09/27/2003 00:00 6028 26.00 130 5.00 11.0
10/23/2003 00:00 6158 40.00 454 11.35 26.0
12/02/2003 00:00 6612 24.00 300 12.50 40.0
12/26/2003 00:00 6912 35.00 375 10.71 24.0
01/16/2004 00:00 7143 14.00 144 10.29 21.0
01/27/2004 00:00 7248 35.00 335 9.57 11.0
01/30/2004 00:00 7287 32.00 296 9.25 3.0
03/02/2004 00:00 7583 7.00 59 8.43 32.0
03/09/2004 00:00 7642 41.00 347 8.46 7.0
04/19/2004 00:00 7989 49.00 425 8.67 41.0
06/07/2004 00:00 8414 33.00 311 9.42 49.0
06/12/2004 00:00 8472 28.00 253 9.04 5.0
07/10/2004 00:00 8725 52.00 530 10.19 28.0
08/31/2004 00:00 9255 57.00 564 9.89 52.0
10/27/2004 00:00 9819 30.00 353 11.77 57.0
11/26/2004 00:00 10172 30.00 707 23.57 30.0
12/09/2004 00:00 10459 27.00 564 20.89 13.0
12/26/2004 00:00 10879 28.00 436 15.57 17.0
01/05/2005 00:00 11023 33.00 413 12.52 10.0
01/23/2005 00:00 11315 34.00 530 15.59 18.0
02/07/2005 00:00 11436 35.00 663 18.94 15.0
02/26/2005 00:00 11845 31.00 454 14.65 19.0
03/02/2005 00:00 11925 33.00 442 13.39 4.0
03/14/2005 00:00 12099 32.00 459 14.34 12.0
03/29/2005 00:00 12299 31.00 475 15.32 15.0
04/04/2005 00:00 12367 30.00 539 17.97 6.0
04/10/2005 00:00 12437 31.00 581 18.74 6.0
04/15/2005 00:00 12558 26.00 460 17.69 5.0
04/25/2005 00:00 12699 16.00 319 19.94 10.0
04/29/2005 00:00 12774 34.00 574 16.88 4.0
05/04/2005 00:00 12906 29.00 442 15.24 5.0
05/11/2005 00:00 13018 34.00 507 14.91 7.0
06/02/2005 00:00 13348 26.00 368 14.15 22.0
06/14/2005 00:00 13525 35.00 469 13.40 12.0
06/28/2005 00:00 13716 34.00 447 13.15 14.0
Web order daily rate (f
07/13/2005 00:00 13909 34.00 256 7.53 15.0
70
07/19/2005 00:00 13994 32.00 172 5.38 6.0
08/01/2005 00:00 14163 28.00 332 11.86 13.0 60
08/07/2005 00:00 14164 31.48 332 10.55 6.0
08/16/2005 00:00 14165 34.75 783 22.52 9.0 50
08/20/2005 00:00 14166 30.75 782 25.42 4.0
40
08/24/2005 06:42 14494 31.72 563 17.74 4.3
08/29/2005 00:00 14495 31.57 643 20.38 4.7 30
09/07/2005 11:25 14496 28.88 749 25.93 9.5
09/13/2005 21:00 14497 30.53 899 29.45 6.4 20
09/19/2005 18:03 14948 31.62 599 18.96 5.9 10
09/24/2005 23:58 15057 32.61 614 18.84 5.2
09/29/2005 13:43 15138 28.03 533 19.01 4.6 0
10/06/2005 08:32 15245 28.34 556 19.61 6.8 0 0 0 00 0 1 11 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 01 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 01 1
10/14/2005 09:40 15396 28.02 557 19.89 8.0 8 2 4 78 9 0 12 1 2 3 4 56 7 7 82 1 2 3 4 56 8 9 9 0 2 21 1 1 33 4 6 6 7 80 1
10/21/2005 09:00 15547 28.11 569 20.23 7.0 ///////////////////////////////////////////
10/27/2005 14:30 15671 32.74 854 26.10 6.2
11/03/2005 16:42 15800 28.79 899 31.23 7.1
11/11/2005 10:02 15953 34.18 1756 51.39 7.7 Short term forecasting (next 2 months)
11/18/2005 11:41 16116 27.11 1594 58.79 7.1 Date ord# yr ago days orders
11/25/2005 12:07 16338 28.46 1898 66.69 7.0 11/18/2005 11:41 16116 10059
11/29/2005 08:10 16525 32.36 1964 60.70 3.8 11/25/2005 12:07 16338 10164 7.02 222
12/02/2005 11:40 16700 29.21 1790 61.27 3.1 12/02/2005 11:40 16700 10287 6.98 362
12/09/2005 15:19 17198 31.83 1500 47.12 7.2 12/09/2005 15:19 17198 10476 7.15 499
12/15/2005 14:15 17710 34.64 1219 35.20 6.0 12/15/2005 14:15 17710 10633 5.96 511
12/23/2005 23:08 18236 26.27 693 26.38 8.4 12/23/2005 23:08 18236 10833 8.37 526
12/31/2005 16:42 18489 30.64 643 21.00 7.7 12/31/2005 16:42 18489 10974 7.73 254
01/06/2006 11:48 18621 24.84 512 20.61 5.8 01/06/2006 11:48 18621 11051 5.80 131
01/10/2006 11:12 18698 20.87 435 20.83 4.0 01/12/2006 11:26 18778 11158 5.98 157
01/19/2006 05:30 18929 12.10 204 16.86 8.8 01/19/2006 05:30 18929 11263 6.75 151
01/31/2006 08:00 19133 30.33 804 26.50 12.1 01/22/2006 06:07 18992 11305 3.03 63
03/02/2006 16:00 19936 30.63 6.6 01/25/2006 06:45 19038 11327 3.03 46
01/31/2006 08:00 19133 11371 6.05 95
02/15/2006 12:00 19480 11592 15.17 347
 03/02/2006 16:00 19936 11936 15.17 457

Short term forecasting (next 2 months)

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20-Nov 27-Nov 4-Dec 11-Dec 18-Dec 25-Dec 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan

rate yr ago events

 Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions

0 0 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 10 0 0 0
6 8 9 9 0 2 21 1 1 33 4 6 6 7 80 1 2 21 1 2 2 3 33 4 4 4 4 4 55 6 6 67 7 8 8 8 88 8 9 99 9 9 0 0 00 1 1 1 1 1 22 2 2 21 1 1 1
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

rate
ng (next 2 months)
yr grw rate yr ago events
interp 1/12 18756 20.98 23.9 -12%
111% 31.60 14.95 Black Fr interp 1/25 19022 20.98 24.3 -14%
194% 51.85 17.61 project 2/15 19535 26.50 25.0 6%
163% 69.73 26.49
227.1% 85.85 26.24
162.0% 62.84 23.99 Xmas
80.5% 32.81 18.18 EoQ
69.8% 22.65 13.34
48.2% 26.31 17.76 MWSF
43.0% 22.30 15.59
49.8% 20.87 13.93 1.80 (interpolation)
106.7% 15.27 7.39 2.10 (interpolation)
118.4% 15.65 7.17 Jan est. 21.00 (current trend and planned events)
56.7% 22.88 14.60 2.00 (interpolation)
 32.9% 30.12 22.66 Feb est. 26.50 (long-term trends and seasonality)

g (next 2 months)

15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 5-Mar

go events
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj acc adj
Dec-00 1230 0.382
Dec-02 4447 7.2 5.5 30% 3% 172%
Jan-03 4659 7.0 5.9 18% 9% 190%
Feb-03 4814 5.1 6.2 -17% -11% 173%
Mar-03 4970 5.1 6.4 -19% -11% 153%
Apr-03 5131 5.3 6.5 -19% -9% 134%
May-03 5298 5.5 6.7 -18% -12% 116%
Jun-03 5466 5.6 6.9 -20% -12% 96%
Jul-03 5626 5.3 7.1 -26% -8% 71%
Aug-03 5814 6.2 7.3 -15% 1% 56%
Sep-03 6033 7.2 7.5 -4% 3% 51%
Oct-03 6217 6.1 7.7 -22% -3% 30%
Nov-03 6561 11.4 8.0 42% 22% 72%
Dec-03 6934 12.3 8.5 44% 17% 116%
Jan-04 7252 10.5 9.1 16% 12% 131%
Feb-04 7542 9.6 9.4 2% -7% 133%
Mar-04 7801 8.5 9.9 -14% -12% 119%
Apr-04 8060 8.5 10.1 -16% -12% 103%
May-04 8323 8.7 10.7 -19% -15% 84%
Jun-04 8607 9.4 11.0 -15% -13% 69%
Jul-04 8898 9.6 11.3 -15% -11% 54%
Aug-04 9210 10.3 11.0 -7% -2% 47%
Sep-04 9508 9.8 11.4 -13% -3% 34%
Oct-04 9812 10.0 12.1 -17% -9% 17%
Nov-04 10168 11.7 12.6 -7% 10% 10%
Dec-04 10879 23.4 14.0 67% 34% 78%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 15.4 -3% 6% 75% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.8 1% -4% 76% 100 200% 100%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 16.4 -8% -11% 68%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 17.1 -13% -12% 55% 75%
80 160%
May-05 13252 17.4 17.8 -2% -10% 53% 50%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 18.5 -22% -17% 31% 60 120%
25%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 19.3 -31% -19% -1%
Aug-05 14494 13.4 20.2 -34% -15% -34% 40 80% 0%
Sep-05 15057 18.5 21.2 -13% -7% -47% -25%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 22.2 -15% -11% -62% 20 40%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 23.3 12% 11% -50% -50%
0 0%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 24.4 147% 70% 97% -75%
Jan-06 19133 21.0 26.1 -20% -5% 78%
-20 -40% -100%
Feb-06 19936 26.5 27.6 -4% -4% 74%
D J MM J S N J MM J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J MM J S N J M D J M M J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J M
Mar-06 20724 26.0 29.0 -11% -11% 63% e aa a u e o aa a u e o aa a u e o aa a u e o aa a ue o aa e aa a u e o aa a u e o a a a u e o aa a u e o aa a u e o a a
Apr-06 21478 24.9 28.3 -12% -12% 51% c n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- c n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r-
May-06 22273 26.2 29.2 -10% -10% 41%
Jun-06 23035 25.1 30.2 -17% -17% 24% est rate rate regr %diff acc adj
Jul-06 23791 24.9 31.0 -19% -19% 4%
Aug-06 24603 26.8 31.7 -15% -15% -11% Quarterly orders and revenues Stock valuation
Sep-06 25520 30.2 32.5 -7% -7% -18%
15000 250
Oct-06 26427 29.9 33.7 -11% -11% -29%
Nov-06 27595 38.5 34.7 11% 11% -18% 225
12500 200
Dec-06 29475 62.0 36.6 70% 70% 51%
Jan-07 30633 38.2 40.0 -5% -5% 47% 10000 175
Feb-07 31844 40.0 41.6 -4% -4% 43% 150
Mar-07 33019 38.7 43.3 -11% -11% 32% 7500 125
Apr-07 34213 39.4 44.8 -12% -12% 20%
100
May-07 35472 41.5 46.3 -10% -10% 10% 5000
Jun-07 36679 39.8 47.9 -17% -17% -7% 75
Jul-07 37882 39.7 49.2 -19% -19% -27% 50
2500
Aug-07 39176 42.7 50.5 -15% -15% -42% 25
Sep-07 40643 48.3 52.0 -7% -7% -49% 0 -
Oct-07 42094 47.8 53.9 -11% -11% -60%
D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
Nov-07 43966 61.7 55.7 11% 11% -49% ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
Dec-07 46969 99.0 58.4 70% 70% 20% - - 03 - - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - - - - 03 - - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - -
Jan-08 48797 60.3 63.1 -5% -5% 16%
Feb-08 50711 63.1 65.6 -4% -4% 12% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc
Mar-08 52563 61.1 68.3 -11% -11% 1%

Quarterly / financials
Month orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opex g% g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap
Dec-01 310 1375 4436 252 769 3048 30.7% 402 1946 2421 34 15 27.7% 715 0.05 10.95 88.63 39.19 6.11 7.83
Mar-02 358 1495 4175 287 860 2994 27.4% 381 1159 3150 27 1.4% 15 27.3% 732 0.05 11.84 131.32 66.03 5.89 8.67
Jun-02 414 1429 3454 327 962 2940 27.4% 378 1246 3060 26 2.2% 7 18.0% 734 0.04 8.86 121.95 41.20 5.87 6.50
Sep-02 658 1443 2193 373 1076 2888 26.4% 396 2252 2085 25 2.0% 3 30.1% 718 0.01 0.16 7.25 44.57 70.86 7.44 11.82 6.04 5.21
Dec-02 713 1472 2065 425 1204 2837 7% 63.5% 27.6% 420 2612 1850 29 1.3% 4 26.2% 722 0.02 0.12 7.16 57.95 42.95 7.93 5.88 -71% 6.18 -35% 5.17
Mar-03 524 1475 2818 484 1347 2787 -1% -745.5% 28.3% 419 3410 1116 23 0.9% 6 28.0% 724 0.02 0.09 7.07 78.41 32.67 9.08 3.78 -61% 6.25 -40% 5.12
Jun-03 496 1545 3115 551 1508 2737 8% 133.6% 27.7% 419 3507 1038 17 0.5% 7 27.0% 728 0.03 0.07 9.53 131.18 34.42 45.24 11.87 -40% 6.24 8% 6.94
Sep-03 567 1715 3025 627 1687 2689 19% 38.9% 26.6% 425 3396 1170 10 0.3% 12 29.1% 742 0.04 0.10 10.36 101.26 27.79 41.11 11.28 306% -37% 6.15 43% 7.69
Dec-03 901 2006 2227 714 1887 2641 36% 27.6% 26.7% 462 3724 1067 9 0.3% 23 27.8% 745 0.08 0.17 10.69 64.13 16.58 25.55 6.60 412% 35% 6.43 49% 7.96
Mar-04 867 1909 2201 814 2111 2594 29% 39.7% 27.8% 468 3158 1436 12 0.3% 21 28.1% 756 0.07 0.22 13.52 62.47 14.82 34.39 8.16 233% 140% 6.08 91% 10.22
Jun-04 806 2014 2500 927 2362 2548 30% 47.2% 27.8% 479 3120 1846 13 0.4% 26 27.7% 785 0.09 0.28 16.27 58.77 13.59 35.92 8.30 232% 281% 6.33 71% 12.77
Sep-04 902 2350 2607 1056 2643 2503 37% 48.3% 27.0% 501 2969 2495 19 0.6% 43 28.3% 806 0.14 0.37 19.38 51.99 13.48 33.80 8.77 244% 264% 6.78 87% 15.62
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1202 2957 2459 74% 38.3% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 0.9% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.64 32.20 49.93 18.23 38.00 13.87 340% 287% 7.69 201% 26.98
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1370 3308 2415 70% 30.0% 29.9% 566 2254 4803 33 1.3% 145 33.3% 857 0.34 0.91 41.67 45.68 20.67 36.65 16.59 376% 322% 8.23 208% 35.71
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1560 3701 2373 75% 38.5% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 2.0% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.74 16.58 23.44 12.64 330% 333% 8.74 126% 31.69
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1777 4141 2330 57% 41.0% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 1.9% 153 32.0% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.30 21.89 30.66 18.00 177% 286% 9.53 177% 46.45
Dec-05 3439 5749 1672 2044 4673 2286 5749 65% 47.4% 27.3% 775 4150 4557 81 2.3% 280 32.0% 874 0.68 1.77 71.89 40.70 25.53 35.06 21.99 93% 174% 9.96 123% 62.85
Mar-06 2228 5002 2245 2328 5228 2245 4870 54% 50.0% 28.0% 719 4528 4785 104 2.5% 251 32.0% 908 0.59 2.02 78.16 38.78 25.00 33.69 21.72 74% 121% 10.26 88% 70.97
Jun-06 2311 5097 2206 2652 5849 2206 5375 45% 50.0% 28.0% 755 4975 5024 113 2.5% 251 32.0% 927 0.58 2.22 85.17 38.37 25.00 33.51 21.83 55% 85% 10.79 131% 78.96
Sep-06 2485 5384 2167 3020 6544 2167 5660 46% 52.0% 27.5% 766 5500 5275 124 2.5% 269 32.0% 945 0.60 2.45 93.26 38.09 25.00 33.43 21.94 61% 70% 11.40 74% 88.17
Dec-06 3956 8418 2128 3440 7321 2128 8097 46% 53.0% 27.5% 966 6712 5539 138 2.5% 476 32.0% 964 1.05 2.82 105.99 37.64 25.00 33.12 22.00 54% 59% 12.71 47% 102.18
Mar-07 3543 7407 2090 3918 8191 2090 6351 48% 54.0% 27.5% 906 7404 5816 168 2.5% 416 32.0% 983 0.90 3.13 116.78 37.35 25.00 33.05 22.12 53% 55% 13.45 49% 114.79
Jun-07 3661 7517 2053 4463 9164 2053 7403 47% 55.0% 27.0% 952 8220 6107 185 2.5% 404 32.0% 1002 0.86 3.41 126.48 37.12 25.00 32.93 22.17 49% 53% 14.29 48% 126.78
Sep-07 3964 7995 2017 5083 10253 2017 8300 48% 55.0% 27.0% 970 9173 6412 206 2.5% 446 32.0% 1022 0.93 3.73 136.72 36.65 25.00 32.56 22.21 54% 52% 15.25 47% 139.76
Dec-07 6326 12534 1981 5790 11471 1981 11417 49% 55.0% 27.0% 1225 11175 6733 229 2.5% 764 32.0% 1042 1.56 4.24 152.23 35.91 25.00 31.86 22.18 49% 51% 17.18 44% 158.69
Mar-08 5594 10888 1946 6594 12834 1946 8376 47% 55.0% 27.0% 1141 12370 7069 279 2.5% 665 32.0% 1063 1.33 4.67 165.85 35.51 25.00 31.59 22.24 48% 49% 18.29 42% 176.29
Jun-08 5491 10497 1912 7511 14358 1912 10035 40% 55.0% 27.0% 1160 13625 7423 309 2.5% 635 32.0% 1084 1.24 5.06 177.07 35.00 25.00 31.16 22.26 45% 48% 19.42 40% 191.93
Sep-08 5945 11164 1878 8555 16064 1878 11405 40% 55.0% 27.0% 1182 15109 7794 341 2.5% 695 32.0% 1105 1.34 5.47 191.41 35.00 25.00 31.21 22.29 44% 47% 20.72 40% 211.57
Dec-08 9489 17503 1844 9744 17973 1844 14198 40% 55.0% 27.0% 1493 18093 8184 378 2.5% 1156 32.0% 1127 2.18 6.09 213.13 35.00 25.00 31.17 22.27 40% 44% 23.31 40% 240.22
Mar-09 8392 15204 1812 11098 20108 1812 9991 40% 55.0% 27.0% 1389 19942 8593 452 2.5% 1014 32.0% 1149 1.87 6.63 232.19 35.00 25.00 31.26 22.33 41% 42% 24.83 40% 266.88
7.08 40%
0.6812 7.66 40%
21232 8.53 40%
9.29 40%
 1/23 2/7 2/26 3/3 3/14 3/29 4/15 5/1 5/11 6/2 6/15 6/29 7/13 7/19 8/2 8/11 8/20
F05Q1 0.35
F05Q2 0.27 0.24 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.34
F05Q3 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.32 0.37
F05Q4 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.34
F06Q1 0.57 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.57 0.55 0.56
F06Q2 0.44 0.42 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.46 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
F06Q3 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47
F06Q4 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.55 0.55 0.52 0.54 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.49

1.96 1.96 1.99 1.97 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.02 2.09 2.09 2.02 2.07 2.01 2.02 2.02 2.01 2.02

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05

F05Q1 F05Q2 F05Q3 F05Q4

 8/29 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/29 10/6 10/14 10/21 10/27 11/3 11/11 11/18 11/25 11/30 12/9 12/15 12/24

0.32 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.38

0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.68 0.78 0.87 0.83
0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.56 0.58 0.64 0.69 0.69
0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.59 0.58
0.49 0.47 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.62 0.63

2.00 1.99 2.02 2.03 2.02 2.01 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.26 2.37 2.56 2.77 2.73

Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06

05Q2 F05Q3 F05Q4 F06Q1 F06Q2 F06Q3 F06Q4

12/31 1/6 1/10 1/19

0.81 0.81 0.71 0.68

0.67 0.66 0.65 0.59
0.58 0.58 0.56 0.58
0.63 0.63 0.60 0.60

2.69 2.68 2.52 2.45

Jan-06
 iPod iPod New Switch life CPU Songs/
iPod inst switch iPod CPU cycl Market user/ 1y halo Ind
Date units base base usrs units (yrs) share Songs year % CPUs CPUs
Dec-01 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.0% 0.75 37.3
Mar-02 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0 2.2% 0.81 34.3
Jun-02 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0 2.2% 0.81 34.0
Sep-02 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.2% 0.73 34.7
Dec-02 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.2% 0.74 39.2
Mar-03 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.1% 0.71 36.0
Jun-03 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.3 2.2 2.0% 5.3 6.1 0.77 35.7
Sep-03 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 2.0% 7.6 11.3 0.79 36.4
Dec-03 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.049 1.9 2.1% 19.0 18.0 12.6% 0.83 41.1
Mar-04 0.8 2.5 0.8 0.7 0.002 2.5 2.1% 27.0 23.6 8.2% 0.75 37.8
Jun-04 0.9 3.2 1.2 0.7 0.059 2.2 2.1% 37.0 28.2 10.8% 0.88 37.8
Sep-04 2.0 5.0 2.0 1.8 0.002 2.4 2.1% 47.0 25.8 5.6% 0.84 38.6
Dec-04 4.6 9.3 5.1 4.2 0.2 2.3 2.2% 81.0 20.7 4.4% 1.05 44.0
Mar-05 5.3 14.2 8.6 5.0 0.3 2.4 2.4% 127.0 20.6 5.5% 1.07 41.2
Jun-05 6.2 19.9 12.5 5.7 0.2 2.6 2.5% 130.0 19.4 5.0% 1.18 42.0
Sep-05 6.5 25.5 16.3 5.6 0.3 2.8 2.7% 138.0 18.7 5.6% 1.24 43.2
Dec-05 14.0 37.5 27.8 12.1 0.1 2.6 2.7% 235.0 16.8 3.0% 1.25 49.3
Apr-06 9.5 44.9 34.8 7.3 0.2 2.6 2.8% 342.4 18.8 2.3% 1.40 45.8
Jul-06 10.5 52.9 42.4 8.0 0.3 2.6 3.0% 258.8 18.4 2.1% 1.60 46.6
Sep-06 11.0 60.9 50.0 8.1 0.4 2.9 3.2% 272.3 18.2 2.0% 1.80 47.5
Dec-06 18.8 73.4 61.6 12.4 0.5 2.6 3.5% 451.7 18.1 2.4% 1.88 53.7
Mar-07 12.6 81.1 68.5 7.7 0.3 2.7 3.6% 507.8 18.4 2.2% 1.77 49.4
15.0
Jun-07 14.0 89.7 76.6 8.6 0.4 2.7 3.8% 407.0 18.3 2.2% 2.17 50.3
Sep-07 14.6 98.6 84.6 8.8 0.6 2.8 4.1% 429.5 18.2 2.2% 2.58 51.3
12.5
Dec-07 25.0 112.3 97.2 13.8 0.8 2.6 4.5% 704.0 18.2 2.2% 2.87 58.0
Mar-08 16.8 121.5 105.1 9.2 0.4 2.7 4.7% 680.4 18.3 2.2% 2.32 53.4
Jun-08 18.6 131.6 10.0 10.1
114.3 0.6 2.7 5.0% 588.0 18.2 2.2% 3.00 54.3
Sep-08 19.5 142.0 123.6 10.4 0.8 2.8 5.3% 619.0 18.2 2.2% 3.63 55.4
Dec-08 27.0 152.6 7.5 10.6
132.8 1.0 2.7 5.8% 898.1 18.2 2.2% 4.13 62.7
Mar-09 18.1 159.9 138.6 7.3 0.5 2.7 6.0% 813.8 18.3 2.2% 3.03 57.7
Jun-09 20.1 167.8 5.0
145.5 7.9 0.8 2.7 6.3% 730.9 18.2 2.2% 4.04 58.7
Sep-09 21.0 175.9 152.3 8.2 1.0 2.7 6.8% 767.8 18.2 2.2% 4.93 59.9
Dec-09 29.2 184.6 2.5
159.4 8.6 1.2 2.7 7.2% 1056.0 18.3 2.2% 5.66 67.7
Mar-10 19.6 190.7 163.8 6.1 0.6 2.7 7.5% 925.7 18.3 2.2% 3.89 62.3
Jun-10 21.7 197.2 169.3
0.0 6.5 0.9 2.7 7.8% 849.9 18.3 2.2% 5.28 63.4
Sep-10 22.7 204.0 174.6 D M6.8
J S D M J S D M J S D A J S D M J S D M J S D M 2.2%
1.1 2.7 8.2% 891.5 18.3 J S D M6.44
J S D 64.6
MJ SDMJ SDM
Dec-10 31.5 211.7 180.6 e a 7.7
u e e a u e e a u e e p u e e a u e e a u e e a u e e a u e e 73.1
1.3 2.7 8.8% 1197.2 18.3 2.2% 7.44 a uee a uee a
Mar-11 21.2 217.2 184.2 c r 5.5
n p c r 0.7
n p c r2.7n p c 9.0%
r l- p 1025.5
c r n p c r 18.3
n p c r 2.2%
n p c r 4.91
n p c 67.3
r npc r npc r
Jun-11 23.4 223.0 188.8 5.8 1.0 2.7 9.3% 955.9 18.3 2.2% 6.73 68.5
Sep-11 24.5 229.1 193.3 6.1 1.2 inst2.7
iPod base 9.8% iPod1002.1 18.3
switch base 2.2%
New iPod8.17usrs69.8 Switch CP
Dec-11 34.0 236.5 198.7 7.4 1.4 2.7 10.3% 1331.9 18.3 2.2% 9.48 78.9
Mar-12 22.9 241.6 50 201.9 5.1 0.8 2.7 10.5% 1119.5 18.3
25% 2.2%0.5 6.08 72.6
Jun-12 25.3 247.1 206.1 5.5 1.1 2.7 10.9% 1056.5 18.3 2.2% 8.38 73.9
Sep-12 26.5 252.9 40 20% 2.2%0.4 10.13 75.4
210.1 5.8 1.3 2.7 11.3% 1107.3 18.3
Dec-12 36.8 260.3 30 215.3 7.4 1.6 2.7 11.8% 1466.5 15% 2.2%
18.3 0.3 11.80 85.2
Mar-13 24.7 265.3 218.2 5.1 0.8 2.7 12.0% 1212.1 18.3 2.2% 7.40 78.4
20 10% 0.2
Jun-13 27.3 270.8 222.2 5.5 1.2 2.7 12.4% 1156.5 18.3 2.2% 10.26 79.8
Sep-13 28.6 276.6 10 226.0 5.7 1.4 2.7 12.9% 1212.0 18.3
5% 2.2% 0.1 12.33 81.4
Dec-13 39.7 284.1 231.3 7.6 1.7 2.7 13.4% 1605.0 18.3 2.2% 14.42 92.1
0 0% 0.0
DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ DJ D D J D J D J D J D J DJ DJ
e ue ue ue ue ue ue ue ue ue ue ue e ue ue ue ue ue u e u
c nc nc l c nc nc nc nc nc nc nc nc c nc nc l c nc nc n c n

Songs/ 1y halo % iPod unit C

user/ year prc p
 40 20% 0.4
30 15% 0.3
20 10% 0.2
10 5% 0.1

Mar-14 26.7 289.3 0

234.1 5.2 0.9 2.7 13.6% 1306.5 0%
18.3 0.0
2.2% 8.89 84.7
Jun-14 29.5 294.9 D J
238.0 D J D
5.6 J D J D
1.3 J D J D
2.7 J13.9%
D J D1259.4
J D J D J D18.3 2.2% D12.37
J D J D86.2
J D J D J DJ DJ
Sep-14 30.9 300.8 e u
241.8 e u e
5.9 u e u e
1.5 u e ue
2.7 u14.4%
e u e 1319.7
u e u e u e18.3 2.2% e14.79
u e u e87.9
ue ue ue u e u
Dec-14 42.9 308.8 c n
247.2 c n c
8.0 l c n c
1.8 n c nc
2.7 n14.9%
c n c 1750.2
n c n c n c18.3 2.2% c17.36
n c n c99.4
l c nc nc n c n
Mar-15 28.8 314.2 250.0 5.4 1.0 2.7 15.1% 1405.0 18.3 2.2% 10.56 91.5
Songs/ 1y halo1367.2
% 93.1 iPod unit C
Jun-15 31.8 320.1 254.0 5.9 1.4 2.7 15.4% 18.3 2.2% 14.74
user/
1.6 year 95.0 prc p
Sep-15 33.3 326.3 257.9 6.2 2.7 15.9% 1432.6 18.3 2.2% 17.54
Dec-15 46.3 334.7 263.4 8.4 1.9 2.7 16.4% 1904.3 18.3 2.2% 20.67 107.4
Mar-16 31.1 340.4 266.3 5.7 1.0 2.7 16.6% 1509.1 18.3 2.2% 12.43 98.8
Jun-16 34.4 346.7 270.5 6.3 1.5 2.7 16.9% 1481.6 18.3 2.2% 17.39 100.6
Sep-16 36.0 353.3 274.4 6.6 1.6 2.7 17.4% 1552.5 18.3 2.2% 20.59 102.6
Dec-16 50.0 362.3 280.3 9.0 2.0 2.7 17.9% 2069.1 18.3 2.2% 24.37 116.0
Mar-17 33.6 368.4 283.2 6.1 1.1 2.7 18.0% 1620.2 18.3 2.2% 14.52 106.7
 Ind CPU
CPU iPod CPU iPod CPU iPod unit unit Tot
grw grw grw rev rev prc prc rev Products
0.1 1.3 0.400 1.776 1.4 Mac iPod
-8% 0.0 1.5 0.300 1.802 1.5
-1% 0.0 1.4 0.375 1.731 1.4
2% 0.1 1.4 0.379 1.894 1.4 2G iPod/PC iPod
5% 75% 0% 0.1 1.4 0.370 1.872 1.5
5% -20% -13% 0.0 1.4 0.388 2.031 1.5
5% 280% -5% 0.1 1.4 0.405 1.844 1.5 3G iPod/Mac iTMS
5% 140% 7% 0.1 1.6 0.402 2.008 1.7
5% 235% 12% 0.3 1.7 0.413 2.054 2.0 PC iTMS
5% 909% 5% 0.3 1.6 0.401 2.116 1.9 iPod mini
6% 183% 14% 0.3 1.7 0.374 1.932 2.0
6% 500% 6% 0.6 1.7 0.315 2.051 2.4 4G iPod
7% 525% 26% 1.4 2.1 0.303 2.010 3.5
9% 558% 43% 1.4 1.9 0.259 1.745 3.2 iPod shuffle
11% 616% 35% 1.5 2.0 0.244 1.706 3.5
12% 220% 48% 1.5 2.2 0.229 1.781 3.7 iPod nano
12% 207% 20% 3.4 2.4 0.242 1.876 5.7 5G iPod/MacTV
11% 79% 31% 2.3 2.6 0.240 1.850 4.9
11% 71% 35% 2.4 3.0 0.230 1.850 5.4
10% 71% 46% 2.4 3.2 0.220 1.800 5.7
9% 34% 50% 4.7 3.4 0.250 1.800 8.1
8% 33% 27% 3.2 3.2 0.250 1.800 6.4
300
8% 33% 36% 3.5 3.9 0.250 1.800 7.4
8% 33% 43% 3.7 4.6 0.250 1.800 8.3
8% 33% 52% 6.3 5.2250 0.250 1.800 11.4
8% 33% 31% 4.2 4.2 0.250 1.800 8.4
8% 33% 38% 4.6 5.4200 0.250 1.800 10.0
8% 33% 41% 4.9 6.5 0.250 1.800 11.4
8% 8% 44% 6.8 7.4150 0.250 1.800 14.2
8% 8% 31% 4.5 5.5 0.250 1.800 10.0
8% 8% 35% 5.0 7.3100 0.250 1.800 12.3
8% 8% 36% 5.3 8.9 0.250 1.800 14.1
8% 8% 37% 7.3 10.250 0.250 1.800 17.5
8% 8% 29% 4.9 7.0 0.250 1.800 11.9
8% 8% 31% 5.4 9.50 0.250 1.800 14.9
8% 8% 31% 5.7
M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S DM11.6 0.250 1.800 17.3
8% 8% 31%
uee a uee a uee a uee a ueea 7.9 13.4 0.250 1.800 21.3
8% 8% 26%
npc r npc r npc r npc r npc r 5.3 8.8 0.250 1.800 14.1
8% 8% 27% 5.8 12.1 0.250 1.800 18.0
od usrs 8% 8% 27%
Switch CPU units 6.1 14.7 0.250 1.800 20.8
8% 8% 27% 8.5 17.1 0.250 1.800 25.6
8% 8% 24% 5.7 10.9 2.50.250 1.800 16.7
8% 8% 25% 6.3 15.1 0.250 1.800 21.4
8% 8% 24% 6.6 18.2 2.00.250 1.800 24.9
8% 8% 24% 9.2 21.2 1.50.250 1.800 30.4
8% 8% 22% 6.2 13.3 0.250 1.800 19.5
1.0
8% 8% 22% 6.8 18.5 0.250 1.800 25.3
8% 8% 22% 7.1 22.2 0.50.250 1.800 29.3
8% 8% 22% 9.9 25.9 0.250 1.800 35.9
0.0
J D J D J D J D J DJ DJ D J D J D J D J D
ue ue ue ue ue u e ue ue ue ue ue
nc nc l c nc nc n c nc nc nc nc nc

iPod unit CPU unit

prc prc
 2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

8% 8% 20% 6.7 16.0 0.00.250 1.800 22.7

J DJ DJ DJ D 8%J D J 8%
D J D21%
J D J D7.4
J D J22.3
D 0.250 1.800 29.6
u e u e u e u e8%u e u8%e u e20%
u e u e7.7
ue u e
26.6 0.250 1.800 34.3
n c n c l c n c8%n c n8%c n c20%
n c n 10.7
c nc n c
31.3 0.250 1.800 42.0
8% 8% 19% 7.2 19.0 0.250 1.800 26.2
iPod8%unit 8%CPU unit 8.0 26.5
19% 0.250 1.800 34.5
prc8% 8%prc19% 8.3 31.6 0.250 1.800 39.9
8% 8% 19% 11.6 37.2 0.250 1.800 48.8
8% 8% 18% 7.8 22.4 0.250 1.800 30.2
8% 8% 18% 8.6 31.3 0.250 1.800 39.9
8% 8% 17% 9.0 37.1 0.250 1.800 46.1
8% 8% 18% 12.5 43.9 0.250 1.800 56.4
8% 8% 17% 8.4 26.1 0.250 1.800 34.5
 Comments

od/Mac iTMS

All unit numbers in millions

$ revenue in $billions
$ unit prices in thousands

1.254
1.400

Assumptions/definitions
Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base

iPod installed base / Replacement cycles:

Installed base increase (new usrs) = iPods sold - iPods replaced
iPods replaced = previous installed base / avg life cycle
2 year initial life cycle

iPod switch base:

1st year (03) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/4 CPU share
2nd year (04) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/2 CPU share
3rd year (05) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 3/4 CPU share
Beyond 3rd year (>05) new iPod users PC/Mac share = CPU share

iPod future sales:

45 million iPod units in F06
F07-F08 iPod unit growth = CPU unit growth + 25%
Beyond F08 iPod unit growth = CPU unit growth

Unit prices / Revenues:

Other music revenue (iTMS, peripherals) attached to iPod units
Other revenue (software, peripherals) attached to CPU units
$250 future iPod unit price (iPod+peripherals+iTMS)
$1850 future CPU unit price (CPU+peripherals+software)

CPU industry / Market share:

2% pre-halo CPU market share
10% future industry CPU growth