Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

Nn kinh t m trong di hn
1. n y, chng ta c c mt bc tranh ca nn kinh t v m gn nh ton din trong di hn, bao gm:

Y c quyt nh bi K, L v cng ngh. r c quyt nh bi cn bng trong th trng vn vay Tng trng Y ph thuc vo tng trng dn s v tin b cng ngh P ph thuc vo M v c xc nh bi tc tng trng ca M

Nhng chng ta vn cha xt n ngoi thng. 2. Mt s thc t: a. Th gii ngy cng tr nn hi nhp v kinh t thng qua m rng ngoi thng. Hn 30 nm qua, ngoi thng trn th gii tng vi tc gp i tc tng trng GDP {khong 11% sn lng th gii c xut khu nm 1965; n nm 1995, l khong 22%} b. Trong mt nghin cu gn y, Sachs v Warner xem xt mc m ca v pht trin: h tm thy gia 1970 vo 1990, cc nn kinh t ang pht trin m ca v hiu qu hn tng trng vi tc bnh qun hng nm l 4,5% trong khi nhng nn kinh t khc mc d c m ca nhng li km theo nhiu hn ch i vi ngoi thng nn tng trng bnh qun hng nm ch t 0,7%. c. Vit Nam ngy cng ph thuc nhiu hn vo ngoi thng (xut khu c tc tng trng nhanh hn 2-3 ln so vi tc tng trng ca GDP, cn nhp khu l 2-4 ln) Nm 1996, xut khu t 30% GDP, nhp khu l 47% GDP; nn thm ht thng mi l 17% GDP. [So vi M: xut khu t 11%, nhp khu l 12%]. ti tr cho khon thm ht thng mi ny, Vit Nam vay cc nc khc trn th gii. iu ny cho thy s kt ni cht ch gia cc lung hng ha v dch v vi nhng dng ti chnh gia cc nc. Cng vic u tin trong chng ny l lm sng t mi quan h trn. Sau , kt hp yu t phc tp ny vo m hnh xc nh thu nhp di hn c bn (c in). Cui cng, chng ta s pht trin mt l thuyt di hn v t gi hi oi. 3. GDP l thc o sn xut trong nc. Trong mt nn kinh t m, hch ton thu nhp quc dn phi b sung thm khu vc xut khu (cu nc ngoi i vi sn

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

xut trong nc) v tr i nhp khu (cu trong nc i vi sn xut nc ngoi). Hay: (a) Y = C + I + G + NX 4. Vit li (a) thnh Y C G = I + NX v nh li Y C G = S Nn: (b) NX = S - I thng d thng mi [Ghi ch: nu a NX l cn cn thng mi. NX > 0 NX< 0, phi i vay t nc ngoi b chnh lch gia nhp khu v xut khu] b. S - I l u t nc ngoi rng. (S - I) >0 S cao hn I, c th cho nc ngoi vay. [Ghi ch: nu {S - I) < 0, vay nc ngoi b khong chnh lch] c. Cn cn thng mi v u t nc ngoi rng phi bng nhau. Thm ht thng mi (S < I) [hay 2 mt ca mt ng xu] d. Ch ngha ca iu ny i vi nhng kt qu lm tng thm ht ngn sch ca chnh ph. Gi s chng ta bt u vi thng mi cn bng, NX=0. Th G (hay T). DEF i. S. tr li cn bng, mt (hoc mt s) iu sau y phi xy ra: NX; hay, thm ht thng mi vay nc ngoi ti tr thm ht

ii. I. Do , tng ln p (gim) u t ti tr cho thm ht e. Tng t, NX i hi S hay I. f. Thm ht thng mi c xu hay khng? Khng nht thit. 5. Trong mt nn kinh t ng [chng 3] khng c giao dch thng mi vi phn cn li ca th gii (ROW) th khng c u t nc ngoi; tng t, cn bng gia I v S l do r quyt nh. Bt k iu g lm thay i I hay S u nh hng n r. By gi ta xem xt mt nn kinh t m, qui m nh. a. M

Thng mi v u t nc ngoi [NX 0 v S I] Nhng thay i ca nn kinh t th gii nh hng ln nn kinh t ni a (c bit l nhng thay i ca li sut th gii, r*)

b. Nh nhng thay i trong nn kinh t ni a khng c tc ng n ROW (c bit l i vi r*). Nn r = r* [M c nn kinh t ln v m. Phn tch ph hp i vi mt nn kinh t m qui m ln nm u gia m hnh nn kinh t m, nh chng ny v nn kinh t ng chng 3; xem thm ph lc cui chng hiu r hn]

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

6. Gi nh quan trng mi: li sut trong mt nn kinh t m v nh khng phi do I v S ni a quyt nh; n c n nh theo mc hin hnh trn th gii, r*. [r* hnh thnh t I v S th gii] a Cung: Y = Y = F(K , L ) b. Cu: C = C = C( Y T ) I = I(r*) c. Cn bng: NX = (Y C - G) - I(r*) = S - I(r* ) [nh li cch tip cn vn vay] d. Nh vy, S c quyt nh bi cc bin s ngoi sinh, I ph thuc vo r* , v NX l chnh lch gia hai bin s ny [iu g m bo rng cn cn thng mi v u t nc ngoi rng bng nhau? l t gi hi oi. Chng ta s bn sau] th: r S Nu S > I ti r* , th NX > 0 (thng d thng mi) tng t nn kinh t ng r by gi c nh ti mc r* Cc thnh phn pha cu: C + I + G + NX tng t nn kinh t ng

r* r r*< r

NX>0

NX<0

I I,S,NX

7. Cc tc ng ca chnh sch ln cn cn thng mi. Bt u bng thng mi cn bng (NX=0) a. iu g xy ra nu G (hay T)? DEF S

(S-I), v NX; thm ht thng mi

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

S'

S' thc t r* NX<0 I I (r*) thc t

[iu ny khng nh pht biu trn ca chng ta, l I cho trc (v khng i v r* khng i), tng thm ht ngn sch chnh ph i phi phi c tng thm ht thng mi]

I, S, NX iu ny gip chng ta hiu c vn "thm ht kp" U.S. v cc nc khc. b. iu g xy ra nu I (v d, tn dng thu u t)? V S c nh, NX phi (hay, thm ht thng mi) [vi S c nh, I phi c ti tr t nc ngoi] c. iu g xy ra nu ROW (hay mt nc ln) thm ht ngn sch chnh ph ca h? r* (ngoi sinh i vi nn kinh t ni a)
r S NX>0

r*

I; NX (thng d thng mi)

r2* r1*

I I,S,NX

8. iu g m bo cn cn thng mi (NX) = u t nc ngoi rng (S - I)? l t gi hi oi thc. a. Xt hai trm xng nm hai bn bin gii gip ranh ca nc A (nc nh) v B (nc ngoi): PA = 100d/1lt v PB = 1000p/l ta s mua u? Ty vo t gi hi oi danh ngha (e): cn bao nhiu pesos (p) mua c mt ng (d).

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

e = # pesos/d i. ii. Nu e = 10p/d, th gi xng tnh bng d nc B l PB/e = (1000p)/(10p/$) = 100d = PA By gi gi s e ln 20p/$. Th gi xng bng $ B l PB/e = (1000p)/(20p/$ = 50d < PA S c khuynh hng mua B (nhp khu), min l khng tn ti ro cn thng mi iii. By gi, tr li e ban u = 10p/d nhng gi nh PA ln 125d. Th PB/e = 100d < PA mua B (nhp khu) d e khng thay i b. Vy quyt nh mua u, hay NX, ph thuc vo gi tng i s dng cng n v o lng (chng hn d). Gi tng i ca hng ha hai nc ny chnh l t gi hi oi thc ().

PA eP = A [hng ly hng, lt xng A i ly lt xng B] 1 PB PB e

c. Khi qut hn, chng ta tng gp:

Xt tt c hng ha & dch v (khng ch l xng) Xt ROW cng mt lc (khng ch l Mexico)

eP P*

Trong

P = Mc gi ni a P* = Mc gi nc ngoi (ROW) e = T gi hi oi danh ngha i vi ngoi t [ch s t gi hi oi c tnh n "trng s thng mi (trade-weighted)]

d. Kt lun: NX=NX () Biu din trn th:

hm s xut khu rng

NX () NX

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

9. T gi hi oi thc iu chnh m bo NX = S - I (cn cn thng mi = u t nc ngoi rng) [T gi hi oi th ni trong di hn] a. Chng ta bit rng NX () = S - I(r*)

V S c nh ti S v r c nh ti r*, phi iu chnh m bo cn bng.

b. Phng trnh cn cn thng mi cng c th c l gii nh mt iu kin cn bng trong th trng ngoi hi:
Cu (rng) v ni t ca ngi nc ngoi (NX) = cung (rng) ni t cho ngi nc ngoi (S - I)

Biu din trn th:

S-I iu chnh cn bng

NX NX1 NX

10. Tc ng ca nhng thay i chnh sch ln a. iu g xy ra nu G (hay T)? S

2 1

(S - I)' S - I

DEF NX

(S - I) v

dn ti

NX NX1 NX

[ DEF cung tin d cho ngi nc ngoi. Cn bng c khi phc khi . tng lm lng cu tin d ca ngi nc ngoi ( NX).]

b. iu g xy ra nu I (chng hn tn dng thu u t)? I dn ti NX (t ti lp cn bng)

(S - I) v tng

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

c. iu g xy ra nu ROW (mt nc ln khc) thm ht ngn sch chnh ph?

Tng r* I dn ti cn bng)

tng (S - I) v gim

tng NX (t khi phc mc

d. iu g xy ra nu chnh ph ni a p dng thu quan hay hn ngch nhp khu? iu ny s lm gim nhp khu v, do , NX (dch chuyn ng NX sang phi)

2 1

(S - I)' S - I

Kt qu ca bin php hn ch thng mi: (1) (2) Khng c thay i trong cn cn thng mi

NX' NX NX1 NX

(3) Khi lng thng mi [ nhp khu do hn nh, xut khu do ]

[Chng hn thu quan lm tng gi tng i ca hng nhp khu; b li bi v lm tng gi tng i ca hng xut khu]

Nhng hn nh v thng mi khng th lm gim thm ht thng mi v chng khng nh hng n S hay I
11. Chng ta xem xt vic xc nh t gi hi oi thc, tip theo l t gi hi oi danh ngha.

eP P * = * e= P P

Vy, e ph thuc vo , P*, v P. [ P*

e; P

e]

S dng cc kt qu tc tng trng, chng ta c % e = % + (* - ) Do : (1) Nu * (tng i so vi ), ni t (d) s tng gi (hay, tin d s mua c nhiu ngoi t hn). (2) Nu (tng i so vi *), ni t (d) s gim gi (hay, tin d s mua c t ngoi t hn). Bng chng r nht l i vi cc nc ang tri qua lm pht cao (ngay c nu h c gng c nh t gi hi oi)

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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Nn kinh t m trong di hn

12. Qui lut mt gi ngang bng sc mua (PPP) (The Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity): t gi hi oi thc phi = 1 nu hng ha c do lng cng n v (do tnh trng kinh doanh chnh lch gi -- arbitrage)

Mc d rt hu ch nh l mt hng dn di hn v nhng bin ng ca t gi hi oi danh ngha, PPP vn tht bi v

Khng phi tt c hng ha u c ngoi thng (dch v ct tc, nh ) Hng ha khng ng nht (Toyotas so vi Chevrolets) S thch i vi hng ha ni a so vi hng ha nc ngoi Nhng hn ch v thng mi

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