TheSouthChinaSeaDisputesand TheirImpactontheSecurity EnvironmentofSoutheastAsia: WhatLiesAhead?

ProfessorCarlThayer Presenta@ontoConferenceonthePoli@caland SecurityImplica@onsoftheSouthChinaSeaDispute CenterforAsiaPacicAreaStudiesandEastWest Center,Taipei,Taiwan,January1213,2012

Outline
Backgroundtocurrentdisputes VietnamsmanagementofSouthChinaSeadisputes ThePhilippinesmanagementofSouthChinaSeadisputes U.S.engagementVietnam&thePhilippines SouthChinaSeadisputesandregionalsecurity

1.BackgroundtoCurrentDisputes
ReemergenceofSouthChinaSeadisputes, 20072011 Chineseac@onsagainstforeignoilcompanies Chinasunilateralshingbans Claimstoextendedcon@nentalshelves U.S.militarysurveyac@vi@esinChinasEEZ

2.VietnamsManagementofSouth ChinaSeaDisputes
BilateraldiscussionswithChina Rearma@onofsovereignty Specialdiploma@cenvoys Selfhelpdefencemodernisa@on

ForceModerniza@on
SixKiloclass conven@onal submarines Su30MK2mul@0 rolejetghrers 2Gephardclass guidedmissile frigates 2Svetlyakclass MissilePatrolBoats Orderfor4Sigma classcorve`es Indigenous construc@onof PatrolBoat

VietnameseNavalModernisa@on

SvetlyakclassFastA`ackCrad

BPS500MissileBoat

GepardclassGuidedMissileFrigates

CoastalDefence
ExtendedRange Ar@lleryMuni@ons

Bas@onAn@ShipMissile BrahMosCruiseMissile

3.ThePhilippinesManagementof SouthChinaSeaDisputes
Diploma@cprotests BilateraldiscussionswithChina Rearma@onoftheU.S.alliance Forcemodernisa@on Newdiploma@cini@a@ve

4.U.S.RegionalEngagement
Vietnam
2004rstdefencedialogue 2008 Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung visits Washington 2008 1st Poli@cal, Security and Defense Dialogue Obama Administra@on responds to Chinese asser@venessinSouthChinaSea

USSJohnD.Stennis April2009

USSFloridaSSGN,Pacic CommandDecember2009

USSGeorgeH.W.BushAug2010

USSGeorgeWashingtonAug2010

U.S.EngagementwithVietnam
AgreementonshiprepairsinVietnam
USNSSafeguard,Saigon,Sept2009 USNSRichardE.Byrd,VanPhongBay,Mar2010 USNSRichardE.Byrd,CamRanhBay,Aug2011

Commencementofnavalengagement ac@vi@es
USSJohnS.McCain,DaNang,July2010 USSChungHoon,USSPreble,July2011

U.S.EngagementwithVietnam
Aug20101stDefenseDialogue U.S.par@cipa@oninADMMPlusprocess Considera@onofstrategicpartnership StatementofIntentonMilitaryMedical Coopera@on(July2011) 2ndDefensePolicyDialogue(Sept2011) 1stMOUonDefenceCoopera@on

U.S.EngagementthePhilippines

PresidentAquinoysouttoUSSCarl Vinson(CVN70)May2010

U.S.andthePhilippines
June2010ForeignSecretaryDelRosariovisits Washingtonandmeetswith:
SecretaryClinton SecretaryGates DirectorNa@onalInteligenceJamesClapper

2011JontMilitaryExercises ManilaDeclara@on(November2011)

5.SouthChinaSeaandtheRegional SecurityEnvironment
ChinaASEANdiscussionsonCondence BuildingMeasures Increasedregionalenforcement capabili@es Regionalforcemodernisa@on ChinaU.S.rivalry Regionalsecurityarchitecture

China5SSBNsby 2010 Singapore2(AIP) Malaysia2 Indonesia3? Vietnam6 Australia12 USsubmarinere deploymentsto WesternPacic

VietnamrecentlypurchasedsixProject 636dieselengineKiloclasssubmarines

USSMichigan

USSOhio USSFlorida

ThreeNuclearSubmarinesSurfaceinJuly2010 Pusan,SouthKorea;SubicBay,Philippinesand DiegoGarcia,IndianOcean

NewMili@aryTechnologies

RegionalSecurityArchitecture

ASEANDefenceMinistersMee@ng2006

ASEANcentricSecurityCoopera@on

ASEAN
ADMM
ADSOM ServiceChiefs

ARF
ISMMS

ASEAN+
ADMMPlus
EWGMS

APSC
AMF

AMFPlus?

Conclusion
Immediatesecurityoutlookisgenerally posi@ve
ChinaandASEANdiscussionsonDOC DiscussiononCOCnextstage DOCTenthAnniversary,PhnomPenh2012

ASEANunitedfront/ASEANChairs
Cambodia,Brunei,MyamarandLaos

Conclusions
Underlyingconven@onalsecuritytrendsare moreworrying Increasedcapacitytoexercisejurisdic@onover contestedwaters Regionalforcemoderniza@oncontains destabilizingelements Con@nuedChinaUScontesta@onwillbe transmi`edtoSoutheastAsia

TheSouthChinaSeaDisputesand TheirImpactontheSecurity EnvironmentofSoutheastAsia: WhatLiesAhead?

ProfessorCarlThayer Presenta@ontoConferenceonthePoli@caland SecurityImplica@onsoftheSouthChinaSeaDispute CenterforAsiaPacicAreaStudiesandEastWest Center,Taipei,Taiwan,January1213,2012