Polynomials: Extrapolation and Curve-Fitting Project

Niger

Alfonso Avalos Mark Heredia Algebra II, Period 4 December 2, 2011

PART I: DATA QUESTIONS

1.) Write down the equation to the line. y = -8.3333x4 + 48.148x3 + 147.22x2 + 422.49x + 1298.4 2.) What curve did you choose as best fit (quadratic, cubic, quartic, quintic)? The function that best fit our data was quartic 3.) How many new HIV cases have you predicted in the next 5 years (with 5 years of data)? Does this number make sense? Why or why not? We predict that there will be 52,809 new HIV cases in 2000. This number makes sense because without using condoms this would happen.

Niger
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5 10

y = 0.0152x6 - 1.0326x5 + 26.416x4 - 306.81x3 + 1469x2 1136.4x + 1458.2

Niger Poly. (Niger)

15

20

25

30

4. How many new HIV cases have you predicted in the next 5 years (with 20 years of data)? Does this number make sense? Why or why not? We predict that there will be 25,741 new HIV cases in 2014. This number could make sense because the number of new cases could decrease if there are medical centers for treatment.

Niger
10,000 8,000 6,000

y = -8.3333x4 + 48.148x3 + 147.22x2 + 422.49x + 1298.4

Niger 4,000 2,000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poly. (Niger)

PART II: ARTICLE QUESTIONS (3-4 Complete sentences per question)

1. What are the major factors for the spread of HIV in your selected country? The major factors for the spread of HIV in Niger are that Niger doesnt have medical centers. Also women are having sex with other people. Lastly they arent using a condom. 2. What has been done to decrease the number of new cases? The government has opened new clinics in order to have blood test. Also to stop pregnancy test for if the they are pregnant that their child has HIV. Lastly they start using a condom when having sex. 3. What are some of the barriers that contribute to the spread of HIV? A barrier to the decrease of HIV is the stigma of talking about sex and getting tested. In addition is they are in denial in of what condom is used for. Also that they dont have the knowledge of the disease they are spreading. 4. What are your suggestions for this country that could effectively help reduce the number of new cases? We suggested that Argentina

PART III: WHITE PAPER

1. Overview- Summarize findings from articles. Use Article Questions as a Guide Well the Niger is the second largest country in Africa that has HIV. They people in Niger have sex with so many partners. Also they dont medical centers. 2. Contributing factors- summarize factors SPECIFIC to your country that have contributed to the increase or decline. Some factors that contributed the increase is people are having sex without a condom. They dont have the knowledge about a condom. Lastly they dont have medical centers for help. 3. Data analysis- Copy and paste your table. Explain in words what trends are present.

Niger
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 y = -8.3333x4 + 48.148x3 + 147.22x2 + 422.49x + 1298.4

Niger Poly. (Niger)

The trends say what would happen in 5 years. Also it says Nigers population will still increase. Lastly there would new cases about HIV. Predictions- Copy and paste graph for 20 years in the future. Explain in words what the graph illustrates.

The graph illustrates what would happen in 20 years. Unlike the previous graph the case will drop in 20 years. Also it says how much people would get the disease.

Niger
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 y = 0.0152x6 - 1.0326x5 + 26.416x4 - 306.81x3 + 1469x2 - 1136.4x + 1458.2 Niger Poly. (Niger)

4. Recommendations- Suggest possible future actions that can be taken or continued based on their effectiveness.

The suggestions could be the people should stop having sex. If they still want to have sex then use a condom. Another thing is to build medical centers to start making blood test.

PART IV: GPS Reflection (1 from each team member)

Alfonso Avalos We got a project assigned to us for math class. The title of the project is Extrapolation

and Curve-Fitting Project. The purpose of this project was to show how HIV has
spread. Also how math can see into the future. Were asking to show what the best fit line of the graph is. Also we had to tell if it was linear or quadratic.

1. Identify and list the GLPO(s) that were satisfied in completing this artifact. In addition, please explain how these GLPO(s) were met by specifically referring to the examples or evidence from the artifact. (Please specifically refer to the indicators within each domain, and do not simply state that you Took Action or Communicated Ideas.)

The GLPO(s) that were met in this project was to take action. We have taken action in this project because we had to say in one of our questions was to put how we could change the spread of HIV. Another thing that we took action is saw what were the outcomes in the HIV spread in 20 years.

2. What skills and concepts were learned throughout the process of completing this artifact? Some skills that we have used in this project were to show what the best fit line is. Some concepts we have learned was that not every equation gives a precise accuracy. Also another concept is not all websites are reliable.

3. Looking back on the process of completing this artifact, what might you do differently if you were able to recreate or revise the final product? How has process of completing this artifact positively affected your future? Another thing I could do this is pick another country. Also I could choose another best fit line. Also put more detail. Another thing is put more facts about the spread.

Mark Heredias Reflection 1. Please provide a detailed summary describing the artifact and its purpose.

We got a project from math class to compare HIV statistics to polynomials. The purpose of this project was to see the spread of HIV and also use polynomials to show the spread. We were asked to find a line that best fits the statistics of the HIV spread. 2. Identify and list the GLPO(s) that were satisfied in completing this artifact. In addition, please explain how these GLPO(s) were met by specifically referring to the examples or evidence from the artifact. (Please specifically refer to the indicators within each domain, and do not simply state that you Took Action or Communicated Ideas.)
The GLPO that was met in this project was taking action. We took action by finding the spread of HIV 5 years and in 24 years. We also studied the way we can change the spread of HIV. One way we found was to use a condom.

3. What skills and concepts were learned throughout the process of completing this artifact? The skills and concepts learned in this project was that many people dont care about protection while having sex and this is how the disease spreads. Many people refuse to get help to end this disease. 4. Looking back on the process of completing this artifact, what might you do differently if you were able to recreate or revise the final product? How has process of completing this artifact positively affected your future?
The things I might do differently in this project are research a little more on the spread and with all culture to find more facts. Also I would find different equations for the spread of HIVs. I would also pick a different country and compare and contrast.

*Extra Credit* (+5 points)

Find a nonprofit or non-governmental organization (NGO) to helps with the prevention of HIV in your country. Type up the following:

EXTRA CREDIT

Name of organization: UNICEF: United States Fund Location: The U.S. Fund for UNICEF has Regional Offices in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles. Mission statement: UNICEF is mandated by the United Nations General Assembly to advocate for
the protection of children's rights, to help meet their basic needs and to expand their opportunities to reach their full potential. UNICEF is guided by the Convention on the Rights of the Child and strives to establish children's rights as enduring ethical principles and international standards of behavior towards children. UNICEF insists that the survival, protection and development of children are universal development imperatives that are integral to human progress. UNICEF mobilizes political will and material resources to help countries, particularly developing countries, ensure a "first call for children" and to build their capacity to form appropriate policies and deliver services for children and their families. UNICEF is committed to ensuring special protection for the most disadvantaged children - victims of war, disasters, extreme poverty, all forms of violence and exploitation and those with disabilities. UNICEF responds in emergencies to protect the rights of children. In coordination with United Nations partners and humanitarian agencies, UNICEF makes its unique facilities for rapid response available to its partners to relieve the suffering of children and those who provide their care. UNICEF is non-partisan and its cooperation is free of discrimination. In everything it does, the most disadvantaged children and the countries in greatest need have priority. UNICEF aims, through its country programs, to promote the equal rights of women and girls and to support their full participation in the political, social, and economic development of their communities. UNICEF works with all its partners towards the attainment of the sustainable human development goals adopted by the world community and the realization of the vision of peace and social progress enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations.

Service they provide/offer: Vaccines, clean water, protection from children malaria, prevent malnutrition, and fight against Aid. Website URL: http://www.unicefusa.org/about/