PRODUKSI BULANAN PERKEBUNAN TEH TAHUN 2009

SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

3 BULAN

5 BULAN

FORECAST

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

FORECAST

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

MARET

9.1

APRIL

10.1

8.966666667

1.284444

11%

11%

MEI

11.1

9.2

1.9

1.9

3.61

17%

17%

JUNI

8.6

10.1

-1.5

1.5

2.25

-17%

17%

9.62

-1.02

1.02

1.0404

-12%

12%

1.13333333 1.133333

JULI

8.6

9.933333333

-1.3333333

1.333333

1.777778

-16%

16%

9.46

-0.86

0.86

0.7396

-10%

10%

AGUSTUS

8.2

9.433333333

-1.2333333

1.233333

1.521111

-15%

15%

9.5

-1.3

1.3

1.69

-16%

16%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.466666667

-0.1666667

0.166667

0.027778

-2%

2%

9.32

-1.02

1.02

1.0404

-12%

12%

OKTOBER

10.7

8.366666667

2.33333333 2.333333

5.444444

22%

22%

8.96

1.74

1.74

3.0276

16%

16%

NOVEMBER

10

9.066666667

0.93333333 0.933333

0.871111

9%

9%

8.88

1.12

1.12

1.2544

11%

11%

DESEMBER

10.3

9.666666667

0.63333333 0.633333

0.401111

6%

6%

9.16

1.14

1.14

1.2996

11%

12%

JUMLAH

112.8

83.2

2.7

11.16667

17.18778

16%

16%

64.9

-0.2

8.2

10.092

-11%

89%

9.244444444

0.3

1.240741

1.909753

2%

13%

9.271428571

-0.0285714

1.171429

1.441714

-2%

13%

RATA-RATA

PRODUKSI BULANAN PERKEBUNAN TEH TAHUN 2009

DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE
BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

3 BULAN
f't

f"t

at

bt

FORECAST

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

MARET

9.1

8.966666667

APRIL

10.1

9.2

MEI

11.1

10.1

9.422222222

10.77777778 0.677777778

JUNI

8.6

9.933333333

9.744444444

10.12222222 0.188888889

11.45555556

-2.855555556 2.855555556 8.154197531

-33%

33%
20%

JULI

8.6

9.433333333

9.822222222

9.044444444

-0.38888889

10.31111111

-1.711111111 1.711111111 2.927901235

-20%

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.466666667

9.277777778

7.655555556

-0.81111111

8.655555556

-0.455555556 0.455555556 0.207530864

-6%

6%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.366666667

8.755555556

7.977777778

-0.38888889

6.844444444

1.455555556 1.455555556 2.118641975

18%

18%

OKTOBER

10.7

9.066666667

8.633333333

9.5

0.433333333

7.588888889

3.111111111 3.111111111 9.679012346

29%

29%

NOVEMBER

10

9.666666667

9.033333333

10.3

0.633333333

9.933333333

0.066666667 0.066666667 0.004444444

1%

1%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.33333333

9.688888889

10.97777778 0.644444444

10.93333333

-0.633333333 0.633333333 0.401111111

-6%

6%

JUMLAH

112.8

65.72222222

-1.022222222 10.28888889 23.49283951

-18%

112%

9.388888889

-0.146031746

RATA-RATA

1.46984127

3.356119929

-3%

16%

DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

5 BULAN
f't

f"t

at

bt

FORECAST

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

MARET

9.1

APRIL

10.1

MEI

11.1

9.62

JUNI

8.6

9.46

JULI

8.6

9.5

AGUSTUS

8.2

9.32

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.96

9.372

8.548

-0.206

OKTOBER

10.7

8.88

9.224

8.536

-0.172

8.342

2.358

2.358

5.560164

22%

22%

NOVEMBER

10

9.16

9.164

9.156

-0.002

8.364

1.636

1.636

2.676496

16%

16%

DESEMBER

10.3

9.5

9.164

9.836

0.168

9.154

1.146

1.146

1.313316

11%

11%

JUMLAH

112.8

25.86

5.14

5.14

9.549976

50%

50%

17%

17%

RATA-RATA

8.62

1.713333333 1.713333333 3.183325333

PRODUKSI BULANAN PERKEBUNAN TEH TAHUN 2009

SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
FORECAST

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

9.3

-0.9

0.9

0.81

-11%

11%
2%

0.1

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

MARET

9.1

9.28

-0.18

0.18

0.0324

-2%

APRIL

10.1

9.362

0.738

0.738

0.544644

7%

7%

MEI

11.1

9.5358

1.5642

1.5642

2.44672164

14%

14%

JUNI

8.6

9.44222

-0.84222

0.84222

0.709334528

-10%

10%

JULI

8.6

9.357998

-0.757998

0.757998

0.574560968

-9%

9%

AGUSTUS

8.2

9.2421982

-1.0421982

1.0421982

1.086177088

-13%

13%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

9.14797838

-0.84797838

0.84797838

0.719067333

-10%

10%

OKTOBER

10.7

9.303180542

1.396819458

1.396819458

1.951104598

13%

13%

NOVEMBER

10

9.372862488

0.627137512

0.627137512

0.393301459

6%

6%

DESEMBER

10.3

9.465576239

0.834423761

0.834423761

0.696263013

8%

8%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.2098138

0.590186151

9.730975311

9.963574628

-5%

103%

9.350817821

0.053653286

0.884634119

0.905779512

0%

9%

MPE

MAPE

RATA-RATA

SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

FORECAST

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

8.9

-0.5

0.5

0.25

-6%

6%

0.5

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MARET

9.1

0.1

0.1

0.01

1%

1%

APRIL

10.1

9.55

0.55

0.55

0.3025

5%

5%

MEI

11.1

10.325

0.775

0.775

0.600625

7%

7%

JUNI

8.6

9.4625

-0.8625

0.8625

0.74390625

-10%

10%

JULI

8.6

9.03125

-0.43125

0.43125

0.185976563

-5%

5%

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.615625

-0.415625

0.415625

0.172744141

-5%

5%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.4578125

-0.1578125

0.1578125

0.024904785

-2%

2%

OKTOBER

10.7

9.57890625

1.12109375

1.12109375

1.256851196

10%

10%

NOVEMBER

10

9.789453125

0.210546875

0.210546875

0.044329987

2%

2%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.04472656

0.255273438

0.255273438

0.065164528

2%

2%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.1552734

0.644726563

0.644726563

0.41567234

1%

57%

9.346272786

0.058611506

0.489009233

0.332454768

0%

5%

MPE

MAPE

RATA-RATA

PRODUKSI BULANAN PERKEBUNAN TEH TAHUN 2009

SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
FORECAST

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

8.5

-0.1

0.1

0.01

-1%

1%

0.9

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MARET

9.1

9.04

0.06

0.06

0.0036

1%

1%

APRIL

10.1

9.994

0.106

0.106

0.011236

1%

1%

MEI

11.1

10.9894

0.1106

0.1106

0.01223236

1%

1%

JUNI

8.6

8.83894

-0.23894

0.23894

0.057092324

-3%

3%

JULI

8.6

8.623894

-0.023894

0.023894

0.000570923

0%

0%

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.2423894

-0.0423894

0.0423894

0.001796861

-1%

1%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.29423894

0.00576106

0.00576106

3.31898E-05

0%

0%

OKTOBER

10.7

10.45942389

0.240576106

0.240576106

0.057876863

2%

2%

NOVEMBER

10

10.04594239

-0.045942389

0.045942389

0.002110703

0%

0%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.27459424

0.025405761

0.025405761

0.000645453

0%

0%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.7028229

0.097177138

0.999508716

0.157194676

0%

10%

9.391901905

0.008834285

0.090864429

0.014290425

0%

1%

RATA-RATA

DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHNG

f't

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

9.3

9.39

0,1

f"t

at

bt

ft+1

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

9.4

9.4

9.21

-0.01

9.2

-0.8

0.8

0.64

-10%

10%
1%

MARET

9.1

9.28

9.379

9.181

-0.011

9.17

-0.07

0.07

0.0049

-1%

APRIL

10.1

9.362

9.3773

9.3467

-0.0017

9.345

0.755

0.755

0.570025

7%

7%

MEI

11.1

9.5358

9.39315

9.67845

0.01585

9.6943

1.4057

1.4057

1.97599249

13%

13%

JUNI

8.6

9.44222

9.398057

9.486383

0.004907

9.49129

-0.89129

0.89129

0.794397864

-10%

10%

JULI

8.6

9.357998

9.3940511

9.3219449

-0.0040059

9.317939

-0.717939

0.717939

0.515436408

-8%

8%

8.2

9.2421982

9.37886581

9.10553059

-0.01518529

9.0903453

-0.8903453

0.8903453

0.792714753

-11%

11%

8.91709095

-0.61709095

0.61709095

AGUSTUS
SEPTEMBER

8.3

9.14797838

9.355777067

8.940179693 -0.02308874

0.380801241

-7%

7%

OKTOBER

10.7

9.303180542

9.350517415

9.25584367

-0.00525965 9.250584017 1.449415983 1.449415983 2.100806692

14%

14%

NOVEMBER

10

9.372862488

9.352751922

9.392973054 0.002234507 9.395207561 0.604792439 0.604792439 0.365773894

6%

6%

DESEMBER

10.3

9.465576239

9.364034354

9.567118124 0.011282432 9.578400556 0.721599444 0.721599444 0.520705757

7%

7%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.2098138

112.5335047

111.886123

-0.03596565 111.8501574 0.949842616 8.923173116 8.661554099

-1%

94%

9.350817821

9.377792056

9.323843586 -0.00299714 9.320846449 0.086349329 0.811197556 0.787414009

0%

9%

MPE

MAPE

RATA-RATA

DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHNG

f't

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

8.9

9.15

0,5

f"t

at

bt

ft+1

ERROR

MAD

MSE

9.4

9.4

8.65

-0.25

8.4

0%

0%

MARET

9.1

9.075

8.925

-0.075

8.85

0.25

0.25

0.0625

3%

3%

APRIL

10.1

9.55

9.3125

9.7875

0.2375

10.025

0.075

0.075

0.005625

1%

1%

MEI

11.1

10.325

9.81875

10.83125

0.50625

11.3375

-0.2375

0.2375

0.05640625

-2%

2%

JUNI

8.6

9.4625

9.640625

9.284375

-0.178125

9.10625

-0.50625

0.50625

0.256289062

-6%

6%

JULI

8.6

9.03125

9.3359375

8.7265625

-0.3046875

8.421875

0.178125

0.178125

0.031728516

2%

2%

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.615625

8.97578125

8.25546875

-0.36015625

7.8953125

0.3046875

0.3046875

0.092834473

4%

4%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.4578125

8.716796875

8.198828125 -0.25898438

7.93984375

0.36015625

0.36015625

0.129712524

4%

4%

OKTOBER

10.7

9.57890625

9.147851563

10.00996094 0.431054688 10.44101563 0.258984375 0.258984375 0.067072906

2%

2%

10

9.789453125

9.468652344

10.11025391 0.320800781 10.43105469 -0.43105469 0.431054688 0.185808144

-4%

4%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.04472656

9.756689453

10.33276367 0.288037109 10.62080078 -0.32080078 0.320800781 0.102913141

-3%

3%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.1552734

111.798584

112.5119629 0.356689453 112.8686523 -0.06865234 2.922558594 0.990890017

1%

31%

9.346272786

9.316548665

9.375996908 0.029724121 9.405721029 -0.00624112 0.265687145 0.090080911

0%

3%

NOVEMBER

RATA-RATA

DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHNG

f't

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

8.5

8.59

0,9

f"t

at

bt

ft+1

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

9.4

9.4

8.41

-0.81

7.6

0.8

0.8

0.64

10%

10%

MARET

9.1

9.04

8.995

9.085

0.405

9.49

-0.39

0.39

0.1521

-4%

4%

APRIL

10.1

9.994

9.8941

10.0939

0.8991

10.993

-0.893

0.893

0.797449

-9%

9%

MEI

11.1

10.9894

10.87987

11.09893

0.98577

12.0847

-0.9847

0.9847

0.96963409

-9%

9%

JUNI

8.6

8.83894

9.043033

8.634847

-1.836837

6.79801

1.80199

1.80199

3.24716796

21%

21%

JULI

8.6

8.623894

8.6658079

8.5819801

-0.3772251

8.204755

0.395245

0.395245

0.15621861

5%

5%

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.2423894

8.28473125

8.20004755

-0.38107665

7.8189709

0.3810291

0.3810291

0.145183175

5%

5%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.29423894

8.293288171

8.295189709 0.008556921

8.30374663

-0.00374663

0.00374663

1.40372E-05

0%

0%

OKTOBER

10.7

10.45942389

10.24281032

10.67603747 1.949522151 12.62555962 -1.92555962 1.925559617 3.707779839

-18%

18%

NOVEMBER

10

10.04594239

10.06562918

10.0262556

2%

2%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.27459424

10.25369773

10.29549074 0.188068551

10.4835593

-0.1835593

0.183559295 0.033694015

-2%

2%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.7028229

112.6079676

112.7976782 0.853697733 113.6513759

-0.8513759

7.909755185 9.872019245

-1%

83%

9.391901905

9.383997297

9.399806514 0.071141478 9.470947992 -0.07739781 0.719068653 0.897456295

0%

8%

RATA-RATA

-0.17718114 9.849074457 0.150925543 0.150925543 0.022778519

PRODUKSI BULANAN PERKEBUNAN TEH, TAHUN 2009

TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHNG

f't

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

9.3

9.39

9.399

0,1

f"t

f'''t

at

bt

ct

ft+1

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MPE

MAPE

9.4

-51.06173

-16.13086

9.129

-0.005

-52.05591

-16.90395 25.303954 25.303954 640.290073

301%

301%

MARET

9.1

9.28

9.379

9.397

9.1

-0.0005

-52.14555

-16.97328 26.073277 26.073277 679.815782

287%

287%

APRIL

10.1

9.362

9.3773

9.39503

9.34913

0.00465

-51.20576

-16.2491

26.349102 26.349102 694.275196

261%

261%

MEI

11.1

9.5358

9.39315

9.394842

9.822792

0.008775

-49.45041

-14.89364 25.993638 25.993638 675.669204

234%

234%

JUNI

8.6

9.44222

9.398057

9.3951635 9.5276525 -0.005472

-50.54505

-15.75034 24.350344 24.350344

592.93926

283%

283%

JULI

8.6

9.357998

9.3940511 9.3950523

9.286893

-0.004456

-51.43511

-16.43512 25.035118 25.035118 626.757137

291%

291%

AGUSTUS

8.2

9.2421982 9.3788658 9.3934336 8.9834308

-0.00559

-52.54406

-17.29419 25.494188 25.494188 649.953637

311%

311%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

9.1479784 9.3557771

8.7662719 -0.003952

-53.31447

-17.89492 26.194915 26.194915 686.173573

316%

316%

9.3031805 9.3505174 9.3857529 9.2437423 0.0089145 -51.51217

-16.50343 27.203427 27.203427 740.026466

254%

254%

9.3728625 9.3527519 9.3824528 9.4427845 0.0037471

-50.7452

-15.92607 25.926068 25.926068 672.161017

259%

259%

9.389668

OKTOBER

10.7

NOVEMBER

10

DESEMBER

10.3

9.4655762 9.3640344

9.380611

-49.83042

-15.22545 25.525447 25.525447 651.548463

248%

248%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.20981

112.70801 111.73693 0.0056412 -615.8458

-196.1803 283.44948 283.44948 7309.60981

3045%

3045%

9.3508178 9.3777921 9.3923338 9.3114111 0.0004701 -51.32049

-16.34836 25.768135 25.768135 664.509982

277%

277%

MPE

MAPE

RATA-RATA

112.5335

9.6852366

0.004524

TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHNG

f't

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

8.9

9.15

9.275

8.525

-0.125

-2.3125

7.24375

1.15625

1.15625

1.33691406

14%

14%

8.58125

0.51875

0.51875

0.26910156

0,5

f"t

f'''t

at

bt

ct

ft+1

ERROR

MAD

MSE

MARET

9.1

9.075

9.175

8.95

0.0875

-0.9125

6%

6%

APRIL

10.1

9.55

9.3125

9.24375

9.95625

0.15625

2.021875

11.123438 -1.023438 1.0234375 1.04742432

-10%

10%

9.53125

11.05

0.134375

4.803125

13.585938 -2.485938 2.4859375 6.17988525

-22%

22%

MEI

11.1

10.325

9.81875

JUNI

8.6

9.4625

9.640625

JULI

8.6

9.03125

9.3359375 9.4609375

9.5859375 9.0515625 -0.342187

-1.144531 8.1371094 0.4628906 0.4628906 0.21426773

5%

5%

-0.063281

-2.722656 7.1222656 1.4777344 1.4777344 2.18369888

17%

17%

8.9757813 9.2183594 8.1378906 -0.027734

8.546875

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.615625

-3.550195 6.3350586 1.8649414 1.8649414 3.47800645

23%

23%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.4578125 8.7167969 8.9675781

0.0505859 -2.820117 6.8311523 1.4688477 1.4688477 2.15751344

18%

18%

OKTOBER

10.7

9.5789063 9.1478516 9.0577148 10.350879 0.3450195 3.5483887 12.470093 -1.770093 1.7700928 3.13322843

-17%

17%

NOVEMBER

10

9.7894531 9.4686523 9.2631836 10.225586 -0.055127 3.1251465 11.733032 -1.733032 1.7330322

3.0034007

-17%

17%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.044727 9.7566895 9.5099365 10.374048 -0.016382 3.0239136 11.869623 -1.569623 1.5696228 2.46371574

-15%

15%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.15527 111.79858 111.68865 112.75872 0.1440186 3.0599487 114.43271 -1.632709 15.531537 25.4671566 0.0082981 1.6411216

RATA-RATA

8.190625

9.3462728 9.3165487 9.3073873 9.3965597 0.0120015 0.2549957 9.5360591 -0.148428 1.4119579 2.31519605 0.0007544 0.1491929

TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHNG

f't

BULAN

HARGA

JANUARI

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

9.4

FEBRUARI

8.4

8.5

8.59

8.671

8.401

-0.405

1030.3275 523.15975 -514.7598 514.75975

0,9

f"t

f'''t

at

bt

ct

ft+1

ERROR

MAD

1128

573.4

MSE

MPE

MAPE

264977.6

-6128%

6128%

MARET

9.1

9.04

8.995

8.9626

9.0976

0.6075

1079.6241 549.51715 -540.4172 540.41715 292050.696

-5939%

5939%

APRIL

10.1

9.994

9.8941

9.80095

10.10065

0.24705

1187.8213 604.25837 -594.1584 594.15837 353024.166

-5883%

5883%

MEI

11.1

10.9894

10.87987

10.771978 11.100568

0.043335

1306.1734 664.23061 -653.1306 653.13061 426579.588

-5884%

5884%

JUNI

8.6

8.83894

9.043033

9.2159275 8.6036485 -1.411304 1084.1087 549.24667 -540.6467 540.64667 292298.825

-6287%

6287%

8.6658079 8.7208199 8.5950782

JULI

8.6

8.623894

0.729806

1039.651

529.15037 -520.5504 520.55037 270972.685

-6053%

6053%

AGUSTUS

8.2

8.2423894 8.2847313 8.3283401 8.2013146 -0.001926

993.9372

505.16799

-496.968

496.96799 246977.184

-6061%

6061%

SEPTEMBER

8.3

8.2942389 8.2932882 8.2967934 8.2996457 0.1948168 995.19303 506.09098

-497.791

497.79098 247795.858

-5997%

5997%

OKTOBER

10.7

10.459424

-616.1055

616.1055

379585.986

-5758%

5758%

NOVEMBER

10

10.045942 10.065629 10.063887 10.004827 -1.063352 1207.8013 612.84214 -602.8421 602.84214

363418.65

-6028%

6028%

DESEMBER

10.3

10.274594 10.253698 10.234717 10.297406 0.1826248 1230.5537 625.75688 -615.4569 615.45688

378787.17

-5975%

5975%

JUMLAH

112.8

112.70282 112.60797 112.51522 112.79979 0.0940343 13513.465 6869.6264 -6192.826 6192.8264 3516468.41 -659.9285 659.92852

RATA-RATA

10.24281

10.048209 10.698049 0.9704826 1230.2739

626.8055

9.3919019 9.3839973 9.3762684 9.3999823 0.0078362 1126.1221 572.46887 -562.9842 562.98422 319678.946

-59.9935

59.993501