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Learning Objectives

Distinguish

between discrete random variables and continuous random variables. Know how to determine the mean and variance of a discrete distribution. Identify the type of statistical experiments that can be described by the binomial distribution, and know how to work such problems.

2

Decide

when to use the Poisson distribution in analyzing statistical experiments, and know how to work such problems. Decide when binomial distribution problems can be approximated by the Poisson distribution, and know how to work such problems.

Focusing our attention on the numerical features of the elementary outcomes, we introduce the idea of a random variable. A random variable X associates numerical values with each elementary outcome of an experiment.

A quantity resulting from an experiment that, by chance, can assume different values.

The numerical values are determined by some characteristic of the elementary outcome, and typically it will vary from outcome to outcome. The word random serves to emphasize the fact that before the experiment is performed, we do not know the specific outcome and, consequently, its associated value of X. The following examples illustrate the concept of a random variable.

5

Value of X 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 0

6

For each elementary outcome, there is only one value for X. However, several elementary outcomes may yield the same value. Scanning our list, we now identify the events (the collections of elementary outcomes) that correspond to distinct values of X.

Composition of the Event = {TTT} = {HTT, THT, TTH} = {HHT, HTH, THH} = {HHH}

8

The random variable X, the number of heads in three tosses of a coin, defines a correspondence between the collections of elementary outcomes and the real numbers 0, 1, 2, and 3. Guided by this example, we have two general facts: The events corresponding to the distinct values of X are incompatible; that is, any two of these events cannot occur together. The union of these events is the entire sample space.

9

Discrete

Random Variable -- the set of all possible values is at most a finite or a countably infinite number of possible values

Number

of new subscribers to a magazine Number of bad checks received by a restaurant Number of absent employees on a given day

Continuous

Current

Ratio of a motorcycle distributorship Elapsed time between arrivals of bank customers

10

A

discrete random variable is a variable that can assume only a countable number of values

Many possible outcomes: number of complaints per day number of TVs in a household number of rings before the phone is answered Only two possible outcomes: gender: male or female defective: yes or no spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first

11

Distribution of Daily Crises Number of Probability Crises

P r o b a b i l i t y

0 1 2 3 4 5

Number of Crises

12

Probabilities

inclusively

0 P( X ) 1 for all X

Total

over all x

P( X ) = 1

13

= E ( X ) = X P(X )

X

-1 0 1 2 3

P(X) X P( X)

.1 .2 .4 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .4 .4 .3 1.0

14

= ( X ) P( X ) = 1.2

2 2

=

4 1 0 1 4

= 12 110 . .

2

X

-1 0 1 2 3

P(X)

.1 .2 .4 .2 .1

X

-2 -1 0 1 2

( X ) ( X )

P( X )

.4 .2 .0 .2 .4 1.2

15

Mean Example

= E ( X ) = X P( X ) = 1.15

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 P(X) .37 .31 .18 .09 .04 .01 XP(X) .00 .31 .36 .27 .16 .05 1.15

P r o b a b i l i t y

Number of Crises

16

2

= ( X )

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 P(X) .37 .31 .18 .09 .04 .01

P ( X ) = 141 .

(X- ) -1.15 -0.15 0.85 1.85 2.85 3.85

= 1.41 = 1.19

.49 .01 .13 .31 .32 .15 1.41

(X- ) 2 P(X)

17

Probability Distributions

Probability Distributions Discrete Probability Distributions Binomial Poisson Hypergeometric Continuous Probability Distributions Normal Uniform Exponential

18

Binomial Distribution

Experiment involves n identical trials Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes: success and failure Each trial is independent of the previous trials p is the probability of a success on any one trial q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one trial p and q are constant throughout the experiment X is the number of successes in the n trials

19

Binomial Distribution

Probability P ( X ) =

function

X n X n! p q for X = 0,1,2, X !( n X )!

n.

Mean

value

= n p

= n p q = =

2 2

Variance

n p q

20

Experiment:

randomly select, with replacement, two families from the residents of Tiny Town Success is Children in Household: p = 0.75 Failure is No Children in Household: q = 1- p = 0.25 X is the number of families in the sample with Children in Household

Family Children in Household Number of Automobiles Listing of Sample Space

A B C D

3 2 1 2

(A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (A,A), (B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D), (C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D), (D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)

21

Families A, B, and D have children in the household; family C does not Success is Children in Household: p = 0.75 Failure is No Children in Household: q = 1- p = 0.25 X is the number of families in the sample with Children in Household

Listing of Sample Space (A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (A,A) (B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D), (C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D), (D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)

P(outcome)

X 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 2

1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16

22

Listing of Sample Space (A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (D,D), (B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D), (C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D), (D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D) P(outcome) X 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 2 X 0 1 2 P(X) 1/16 6/16 9/16 1

1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16

P( X ) =

n! X !( n X ) !

pq

n x

P( X = 0) =

P ( X = 1) =

23

Families A, B, and D have children in the household; family C does not Success is Children in Household: p = 0.75 Failure is No Children in Household: q = 1- p = 0.25 X is the number of families in the sample with Children in Household

P(sequence)

X 0 1 1 2

24

Possible Possible Sequences Sequences (F,F) (F,F) (S,F) (S,F) (F,S) (F,S) (S,S) (S,S) P(sequence) P(sequence) X X 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 X X 0 0 1 1 2 2 P(X) P(X)

(. 25)(. 25)= (.25)22 (.25)(.25)= (.75)(.25) (.75)(.25) (.25)(.75) (.25)(.75) (.75)(.75)= (.75 22 (.75)(.75)= )

(. 25)(. 25)= (.25)22 =0.0625 (.25)(.25)= =0.0625 2 (.25)(.75) =0.375 2 (.25)(.75) =0.375 (.75)(.75)= (.75 22 =0.5625 (.75)(.75)= ) =0.5625

x x n x n x n! n! pq X !( n X ) ! X! n X !

P( X ) = P( X ) =

P ( X = 0) = P ( X = 0) =

P ( X = 2) = P ( X = 2) =

2! 2! 2 2 2 2 2 2 = 0 5625 .75 .25 = 0..5625 2 !( 2 2) ! 2! 2 2 !

P( X = 1) = P( X = 1) =

25

The Gallup survey discussed in the Decision Dilemma found that 65% of all financial consumers were very satisfied with their primary financial institution. If this figure still holds true today, suppose 40 financial consumers are sampled randomly. What is the probability that exactly 23 of the 40 are very satisfied with their primary financial institution?

26

Solution:

The value of p is .65 (very satisfied), the value of q = 1 p =1 - 0.65 = 0.35 (not very satisfied), n=40, and X=23. the binomial formula yields the final answer.

P( X ) = n! X !( n X ) !

pq

n x

40

C23(.65)23(.35)17=(88732378800)(.000049775) (.000000018)=(.0784)

If 65% of the financial consumers are very satisfied, about 7.84% of the time the researcher would get exactly 23 out of 40 financial consumers who are very satisfied with their financial institution.

27

The odds are against getting 23 out of 40 financial consumers by chance who are very satisfied with their financial institution. How many very satisfied financial consumers would one expect to get in 40 randomly selected financial consumers? If 65% of the financial consumers are very satisfied with their primary financial institution, one would expect to get about 65% of 40 or (.65)(40) = 26 very satisfied financial consumers. In any individual sample of 40 financial consumers, the numbers who are very satisfied is likely to differ from 26. On average, the expected number is 26. a researcher who gets 23 very satisfied financial consumers out of 40 can view this number in light of the 26 that would be expected.

28

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, approximately 6% of all workers in Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In conducting a random telephone survey in Jackson, what is the probability of getting two or fewer unemployed workers in a sample of 20?

29

Solution:

n = 20 p =. 06 q =. 94 P( X 2 ) = P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1) + P ( X = 2 ) =. 2901+. 3703+. 2246 =. 8850

20! P ( X = 1) = 1!( 20 1)!

( .06) ( .94)

0 1

20 0

= (1)(1)(.2901) =.2901

( .06) ( .94)

2

20 1

20! P ( X = 2) = 2 !( 20 2)!

( .06) ( .94)

20 2

30

If 6% of workers in Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed, the telephone surveyor would get zero, one, or two unemployed workers 88.5% of the time in a random sample of 20 workers. The requirement of getting two or fewer is satisfied by getting zero, one, or two unemployed workers. Thus this problem is the union of three probabilities. Whenever the binomial formula is used to solve for cumulative success (not an exact number), the probability of each x value must be solved and the probabilities summed. If an actual survey produced such a result, it would serve to validate the census figures.

31

Binomial Table

n = 20 X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0.1 0.122 0.270 0.285 0.190 0.090 0.032 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.2 0.012 0.058 0.137 0.205 0.218 0.175 0.109 0.055 0.022 0.007 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 PROBABILITY 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.001 0.007 0.028 0.072 0.130 0.179 0.192 0.164 0.114 0.065 0.031 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.012 0.035 0.075 0.124 0.166 0.180 0.160 0.117 0.071 0.035 0.015 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.015 0.037 0.074 0.120 0.160 0.176 0.160 0.120 0.074 0.037 0.015 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.015 0.035 0.071 0.117 0.160 0.180 0.166 0.124 0.075 0.035 0.012 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.012 0.031 0.065 0.114 0.164 0.192 0.179 0.130 0.072 0.028 0.007 0.001 0.8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.007 0.022 0.055 0.109 0.175 0.218 0.205 0.137 0.058 0.012 0.9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.009 0.032 0.090 0.190 0.285 0.270 0.122 32

Example:

Solve the binomial probability for n=20, p=40, and x=10 by using Binomial Probability Distribution.

33

n = 20 X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0.1 0.122 0.270 0.285 0.190 0.090 0.032 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 PROBABILITY 0.2 0.012 0.058 0.137 0.205 0.218 0.175 0.109 0.055 0.022 0.007 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.3 0.001 0.007 0.028 0.072 0.130 0.179 0.192 0.164 0.114 0.065 0.031 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.4 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.012 0.035 0.075 0.124 0.166 0.180 0.160 0.117 0.071 0.035 0.015 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

( .40) ( .60)

10

10

= 01171 .

34

n = 20 X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 PROBABILITY 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.3585 0.2901 0.2342 0.3774 0.3703 0.3526 0.1887 0.2246 0.2521 0.0596 0.0860 0.1139 0.0133 0.0233 0.0364 0.0022 0.0048 0.0088 0.0003 0.0008 0.0017 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

= n p = (20 )(. 06 ) = 1. 20

2 2

35

n =20 p =0.06

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P(X) =BINOMDIST(A5,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A6,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A7,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A8,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A9,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A10,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A11,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A12,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A13,B$1,B$2,FALSE) =BINOMDIST(A14,B$1,B$2,FALSE)

36

n = 4 PROBABILITY X 0.1 0.5 0 0.656 0.063 1 0.292 0.250 2 0.049 0.375 3 0.004 0.250 4 0.000 0.063

P = 0.1

1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 0 1 2 3 X 4 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 0 1 2 3 X 4

P = 0.5

1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 0 1 2 3 X 4

P(X)

P = 0.9

P(X)

P(X)

37

Example:

Purchasing magazine reported the result of a survey in which buyers were asked a series of questions with regard to Internet usages. One question asked was how they would use the Internet if security and other issue could be resolved. 78% said they would use it for pricing information, 75% said they would use it to send purchase orders, and 70% said they would use it for purchase order acknowledgements. Assume that these percentages hold true for all buyers. A researcher randomly samples 20 buyers and asks them how they would use the Internet if security and other issues could be resolved.

38

Questions:

What is the probability that exactly 14 of these buyers would use the Internet for pricing information? What is the probability that all of the buyers would-use the Internet to send purchase orders? What is probability that fewer than 12 would use the Internet for purchase order acknowledgements?

39

Solution:

a) n = 20 p = .78 x = 14 20 C14 (.78)14(.22)6 = 38,760(.030855)(.00011338) = .1356 n = 20 p = .75 x = 20 20 C20 (.75)20(.25)0 = (1)(.0031712)(1) = .0032 x < 12

b)

c)

0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.001 + 0.004 + 0.012 +0 .031 + 0.065 = .113

40

Example:

The Wall Street Journal reported some interesting statistics on the job market. One statistic is that 40% of all workers say they would change jobs for slightly higher pay. In addition, 88% of companies say that there is a shortage of qualified job candidates. Suppose 16 workers are randomly selected and asked if they would change jobs for slightly higher pay. What is the probability that nine or more say yes? What is the probability that three, four, five, or six say yes? If 13 companies are contacted, what is the probability that exactly 10 say there is a shortage of qualified job candidates? What is the probability that all of the companies say there is a shortage of qualified job candidates? What is the expected number of companies that would say there is a shortage of qualified job candidates?

41

n = 16 p = .40 P(x > 9): from Table A.2: x 9 10 11 12 13 Prob .084 .039 .014 .004 .001 .142

42

p(3 < x < 6): x 3 4 5 6 n = 13 p = .88 Prob .047 .101 .162 .198 .508

P(x = 10) = 13C10(.88)10(.12)3 = 286(.278500976)(.001728) = .1376 P(x = 13) = 13C13(.88)13(.12)0 = (1)(.1897906171)(1) = .1898 Expected Value = = n p = 13(.88) = 11.44

43

Question 5.22

Harley Davidson, director of quality control for the Kyoto motor company is conducting his monthly spot check of automatic transmissions. In this procedure, 10 transmissions are removed from the pool of components and are checked for manufacturing defects. Historically, only 2 percent of the transmissions have such flows. (Assume that flaws occur independently in different transmissions.) (a) What is the probability that Harleys sample contains more than two transmissions with manufacturing flaws? (Do not use the tables.) (b) What is the probability that none of the selected transmissions has any manufacturing flaws? (Do not use the tables.)

44

Question 5.23

Diane Burns is the mayor of a large city. Lately, she has become concerned about the possibility that large numbers of people who are drawing unemployment checks are secretly employed. Her assistants estimate that 40 percent of unemployment beneficiaries fall into this category, but Ms. Bruns is not convinced. She asks one of her aides to conduct a quite investigation of 10 randomly selected unemployment beneficiaries. (a) If the mayers assistants are correct, what is the probability that more than eight of individuals investigated have jobs? (b) If the mayors assistants are correct, what is the probability that only three of the investigated have jobs?

45

Poisson Distribution

Describes

discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval A discrete distribution Describes rare events Each occurrence is independent any other occurrences. The number of occurrences in each interval can vary from zero to infinity. The expected number of occurrences must hold constant throughout the experiment.

46

Arrivals

airports

Defects

-- people, airplanes, automobiles, baggage banks -- people, automobiles, loan applications computer file servers -- read and write operations

number

at queuing systems

of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded copper wire number of blemishes per square foot of painted surface number of errors per typed page

47

in manufactured goods

Poisson Distribution

Probability

function

P( X ) = where:

e

X

X!

s Mean value

s Variance

s Standard deviation

48

Problem:

Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2 customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of having more than seven customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon? A bank has an average random arrival rate of 3.2 customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of getting exactly 10 customers during on 8-inute interval?

49

Solution:

= 3. 2 customers / 4 minutes X = 10 customers / 8 minutes Adjusted = 6. 4 customers / 8 minutes

P(X) =

X

P(X) =

X

X!

10 6.4

X!

6 6.4

P( X = 10 ) = 6.4 e 10 !

= 0. 0528

P( X = 6) = 6.4 e 6!

= 0.1586

50

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0.5 0.6065 0.3033 0.0758 0.0126 0.0016 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.5 0.2231 0.3347 0.2510 0.1255 0.0471 0.0141 0.0035 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.6 0.2019 0.3230 0.2584 0.1378 0.0551 0.0176 0.0047 0.0011 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.0 0.0498 0.1494 0.2240 0.2240 0.1680 0.1008 0.0504 0.0216 0.0081 0.0027 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.2 0.0408 0.1304 0.2087 0.2226 0.1781 0.1140 0.0608 0.0278 0.0111 0.0040 0.0013 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 6.4 0.0017 0.0106 0.0340 0.0726 0.1162 0.1487 0.1586 0.1450 0.1160 0.0825 0.0528 0.0307 0.0164 0.0081 0.0037 0.0016 0.0006 0.0002 0.0001 6.5 0.0015 0.0098 0.0318 0.0688 0.1118 0.1454 0.1575 0.1462 0.1188 0.0858 0.0558 0.0330 0.0179 0.0089 0.0041 0.0018 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001 7.0 0.0009 0.0064 0.0223 0.0521 0.0912 0.1277 0.1490 0.1490 0.1304 0.1014 0.0710 0.0452 0.0263 0.0142 0.0071 0.0033 0.0014 0.0006 0.0002 8.0 0.0003 0.0027 0.0107 0.0286 0.0573 0.0916 0.1221 0.1396 0.1396 0.1241 0.0993 0.0722 0.0481 0.0296 0.0169 0.0090 0.0045 0.0021 0.0009 51

If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an average weekday and sales of houses on weekdays are Poisson distributed, what is the probability of selling exactly four houses in one day? What is the probability of selling no houses in one day? What is the probability of selling more than five houses in one day? What is the probability of selling 2 or more houses in one day?

52

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0.5 0.6065 0.3033 0.0758 0.0126 0.0016 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

1.5 0.2231 0.3347 0.2510 0.1255 0.0471 0.0141 0.0035 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

1.6 0.2019 0.3230 0.2584 0.1378 0.0551 0.0176 0.0047 0.0011 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

3.0 0.0498 0.1494 0.2240 0.2240 0.1680 0.1008 0.0504 0.0216 0.0081 0.0027 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001

= 1. 6 P( X = 4 ) = 0. 0551

53

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.5 0.6065 0.3033 0.0758 0.0126 0.0016 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.5 0.2231 0.3347 0.2510 0.1255 0.0471 0.0141 0.0035 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.6 0.2019 0.3230 0.2584 0.1378 0.0551 0.0176 0.0047 0.0011 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.0 0.0498 0.1494 0.2240 0.2240 0.1680 0.1008 0.0504 0.0216 0.0081 0.0027 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001

54

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.5 0.6065 0.3033 0.0758 0.0126 0.0016 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.5 0.2231 0.3347 0.2510 0.1255 0.0471 0.0141 0.0035 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.6 0.2019 0.3230 0.2584 0.1378 0.0551 0.0176 0.0047 0.0011 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.0 0.0498 0.1494 0.2240 0.2240 0.1680 0.1008 0.0504 0.0216 0.0081 0.0027 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001

55

0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

= 1. 6

= 6. 5

10

12

14

16

56

Problem:

According to the United National Environmental Program and World Health Organization, in Bombay, India, air pollution standards for particulate matter are exceeded an average of 5.6 days in every threeweek period. Assume that the distribution of number of days exceeding the standards per three-week period is Poisson distributed. What is the probability that the standard is not exceeded on any day during a three-week period? What is the probability that the standard is exceeded exactly 6 days of a three-week period? What is the probability that the standard is exceeded exactly 15 or more days during a three-week period? If this outcome actually occurred, what might you conclude?

57

= 5.6 days weeks 3 a) Prob(x=0 = 5.6): from Table A.3 = .0037 b) Prob(x=6 = 5.6): from Table A.3 = .1584 c) Prob(x > 15 = 5.6): x Prob. 15 .0005 16 .0002 17 .0001 x > 15 .0008 Because this probability is so low, if it actually occurred, the researcher would actually have to question the Lambda value as too low for this period. 58

Problem:

A high percentage of people who fracture or dislocate a bone see a doctor for that condition. Suppose the percentage is 99%. Consider a sample in which 300 people are randomly selected who have fractured or dislocated a bone.

What is the probability that exactly five of them did not see a doctor? What is the probability that fewer than four of them did not see a doctor? What is the expected number of people who would not see a doctor?

59

Solution:

n = 300, a) p = .01, = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3

b) Prob (x < 4) = Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2) + Prob.(x = 3) = .0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472 c) The expected number = = = 3

60

Problem:

The average number of annual trips per family to amusement parks in the United State is Poisson distributed, with a mean of 0.6 trips per year. What is the probability of randomly selecting an American family and finding the following: a) The family did not make a trip to an amusement park last year? b) The family took exactly one trip to an amusement park last year? c) The family took two or more trips to amusement parks last year? d) The family took three or fewer trips to amusement parks over a three-year period? e) The family took exactly four trips to amusement parks during a six-year period?

61

Solution:

= 0.6 trips1 year a) Prob (x=0 = 0.6): from Table A.3 = .5488 b) Prob (x=1 = 0.6): from Table A.3 = .3293

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c) Prob(x > 2 = 0.6): from Table A.3 x 2 3 4 5 6 x > 2 Prob. .0988 .0198 .0030 .0004 .0000 .1220

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Prob(x < 3 3 year period): The interval length has been increased (3 times) New Lambda = = 1.8 trips years 3 Prob(x < 3 = 1.8): from Table A.3 x Prob. 0 .1653 1 .2975 2 .2678 3 .1607 x < 3 .8913

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Prob(x=4 6 years): The interval has been increased (6 times) New Lambda = = 3.6 trips years 6 Prob(x=4 = 3.6): from Table A.3 = .1912

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Problem:

Ship collisions in the Houston Ship Channel are rare. Suppose the numbers of collisions are Poisson distributed, with the mean of 1.2 collisions every four months. What is probability of having no collisions occur over a fourmonth period? What is probability of having exactly two collisions in a two month period? What is probability of having one or fewer collisions in a six month period? If this outcome occurred, what might you conclude about ship channel conditions during this period? What might you conclude about ship channel safety awareness during this period? What might you conclude about weather conditions during this period? What might you conclude about lambda?

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Solution:

= 1.2 collisions months 4 a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2): from Table A.3 = .3012 b) Prob(x=2 2 months): The interval has been decreased (by ) New Lambda = = 0.6 collisions months 2 Prob(x=2 = 0.6): from Table A.3 = .0988

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Prob (x < 1 collision months): 6 The interval length has been increased (by 1.5) New Lambda = = 1.8 collisions months 6 Prob(x < 1 = 1.8): from Table A.3 x 0 1 x< 1 Prob. .1653 .2975 .4628

The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel and weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness is about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1 collision per 6 months.

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Problem:

A pen company arranges 1.2 defective pens per carton produced (200 pens). The number of defects per carton is Poisson distributed.

What is the probability of selecting a carton and finding no defective pens? What is the probability of finding eight or more defective pens in a carton? Suppose a purchaser of these pens will quit buying from the company if a carton contains more than three defective pens. What is the probability that a carton contains more than three defective pens?

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= 1.2 pens carton a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2): from Table A.3 = .3012 b) Prob(x > 8 = 1.2): from Table A.3 = .0000

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Prob(x > 3 = 1.2): from Table A.3 x Prob. 4 .0260 5 .0062 6 .0012 7 .0002 8 .0000 x > 3 .0336

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Question:

A high percentage of people who fracture or dislocate a bone see a doctor for that condition. Suppose the percentage is 99%. Consider a sample in which 300 people are randomly selected who have fractured or dislocated a bone.

What is the probability that exactly five of them did not see a doctor? What is the probability that fewer than four of them did not see a doctor? What is the expected number of people who would not see a doctor?

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n = 300, a)

p = .01,

= n(p) = 300(.01) = 3

b) Prob (x < 4) = Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2) + Prob.(x = 3) = .0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472 c) The expected number = = = 3

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=1.6

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P(X) =POISSON(D5,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D6,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D7,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D8,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D9,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D10,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D11,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D12,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D13,E$1,FALSE) =POISSON(D14,E$1,FALSE)

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Binomial

probabilities are difficult to calculate when n is large. Under certain conditions binomial probabilities may be approximated by Poisson probabilities.

If n > 20 and n p 7, the approximation is acceptable

Poisson

approximation

Use = n p.

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B o ia in m l

Poisson

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Binomial

n=5 0 p =. 0 3

0.2181 0.3372 0.2555 0.1264 0.0459 0.0131 0.0030 0.0006 0.0001 0.0000 Error -0.0051 0.0025 0.0045 0.0009 -0.0011 -0.0010 -0.0005 -0.0002 0.0000 0.0000

Poisson

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

0.0498 0.1493 0.2241 0.2241 0.1681 0.1008 0.0504 0.0216 0.0081 0.0027 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 Error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

= 1. 5

0.2231 0.3347 0.2510 0.1255 0.0471 0.0141 0.0035 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000

= 3. 0

0.0498 0.1494 0.2240 0.2240 0.1680 0.1008 0.0504 0.0216 0.0081 0.0027 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000

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Question 5-31

Concert pianist Donna Prima has become quite upset at the number of coughs occurring in the audience just before she begins to play. On her latest tour, Donna estimates that on average eight coughs occur just before the start of her performance. Ms. Prima has sworn to her conductor that if she hears more than five coughs at tonights performance, she will refuse to play. What is the Probability that she will play tonight?

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Question 5-32

Guy Ford, production supervisor for the Winstead Companys Charlottesville plant, is worried about an elderly employees ability to keep up the minimum work pace. In addition to the normal daily breaks, this employee stops for short rest periods an average of 4.1 times per hour. The rest period is fairly consistent 3 minutes each time. Ford has decided that if the probability of the employee resting for 12 minutes ( not including normal breaks) or more per hour is greater than 0.5, he will move the employee to a different job. Should he do so?

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