Introduction to Business Logistics (04-78-633)

Assignment 01
Presented to; Dr. Xiaolei Guo
By; Muhammad H. Majeed
Student ID: 103682808

Question
1:
Week
Units
S
T
F
(A-F)
(A-F)
(A-F)/N1
Sf
95%
Interval

1
1567

2
1709

3
1651

4
1778
1676.25
0.00
1676.25

198411.01
39682.20
199.20
Z=1.96

( F11-Z*Sf ,F11+Z*Sf )
1639.39 2420.27

5
1897
1696.60
4.07
1700.67
38545.47

6
2056
1739.94
11.92
1751.86
92501.63

7
2088
1812.69
24.09
1836.78
63113.40

8
9
10
11
1970
1925
2003
1887.02 1930.93 1958.61 1995.02
34.14
36.09
34.41
34.81
1921.16 1967.02 1993.03 2029.83
2385.47 1765.55 99.49

Question 2
, N=12,
-

St=40.97+0.1049*T
(B) The seasonal factors are determined by ratio of actual sales in period (S) divided by trend value for that period i.e. St

Sales (S)
27
70
41
13
30
73
48
15
34
82
51
16

time(T)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

S*T

T
27
140
123
52
150
438
336
120
306
820
561
192

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144

St
41.0749
41.1798
41.2847
41.3896
41.4945
41.5994
41.7043
41.8092
41.9141
42.019
42.1239
42.2288

S/St
0.657336
1.699863
0.993104
0.314089
0.722987
1.754833
1.15096
0.358773
0.811183
1.951498
1.210714
0.378888

(C) Forecast for the next 4 quarters.

Time (T)
13
14
15
16

St
42.3337
42.4386
42.5435
42.6484

S. Factor
0.811183
1.951498
1.210714
0.378888

Forecast
34.34038
82.81884
51.50801
16.15897

Rounded Figure
34
83
52
16

Quaterly Sales Data

90

y = 0.1049x + 40.97

80
70
60
50

Units

40
30
20
10
0
0

Quater

10

12

14