Poisson Distribution

In this chapter, you will learn

• about the conditions needed to model a situation for a discrete
variable using a Poisson distribution, X ∼ Po (λ)
• how to calculate the probabilities for this distribution and also the
mean and variance.
• about the use of the Poisson distribution as an approximation to
the Binomial distribution and the Normal distribution
• about the distribution of the sum of two or more independent
Poisson variables.

If an event is randomly scattered in time or space and has mean

number of occurrences λ in a given interval of time or space and if X is
the random variable ‘the number of occurrences’ in the given interval,
then X ∼ Po (λ).
Random variables which are related with interval of time
• the number of phone calls received between 10.00 am and 11.00 am.
• the number of insurance claims received in a period of 2 weeks.

Random variables which are related with interval of space

• the number of spelling mistakes found in 1 page of a textbook.
• the number of bacteria found in 10 ml of pond water.

Conditions for a Poisson model

• Events occur at random in a given interval of time or interval of
space
• Events that occur are independent

If the above conditions are satisfied, X is said to follow a Poisson

distribution written X ∼ Po (λ) or X ∼ Po (µ) where λ or µ is the
mean or average number of occurrences in a given interval of time
or space. X is the number of occurrences in the given interval of time or
interval of space, where

−λ x
e λ
P(X = x) = ; x = 0,1,2,........ E(X) = Var(x) = λ
x!
1. A sales manager receives 6 phone calls on average between 9:30 a.m.
and 10:00 a.m. everyday. Find the probability that he will receive
i) exactly 2 calls between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m

ii) at least 2 calls between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m

iii) less than 2 calls between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m
iv) not more than 2 calls between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m

v) 2 calls between 9:30 a.m. and 9:40 a.m.

*Note: If the average number of phone calls received in 30 minutes is 6, then the
average number of phone calls received in 10 minutes will be 2. Therefore X ∼
Po (2).
2. A book of mathematical tables has, on average, 0.72 misprints per
page. Find the probability that there will be
i) no misprint per page

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 ii) at least 1 misprint per page
iii) at least 1 misprint in two pages

3. A book containing 500 pages has 750 misprints.

i) What is the average number of misprints per page?

ii) Find the probability that page 427 contains

a) no misprints

b) exactly 4 misprints

c) more than the average number of misprints

iii) Find the probability that pages 427 and 428 will contain no
misprints.
4. A shop sells a particular make of radio at a rate of 2 per week on
average. The number sold in a week is thought to have a Poisson
distribution.
(i) Find the probability that the shop sells at least 2 in a week.

(ii) Find the smallest number that can be in stock at the beginning of
the week in order to have at least a 90% chance of being able to
meet all the demands during that week.

Answer

1i) 0.04462 ii) 0.98265 iii) 0.01735

iv) 0.06197 v) 0.2707
2i) 0.4867 ii) 0.5133 iii) 0.7631
3i) 1.5
ii) a. 0.22313 b. 0.04707 c. 0.44218
iii) 0.049787
4i) 0.594 (ii) at least 4
P ( X ≤ n) ≥ 0.9
P ( X ≤ 3) = 0.8571
P ( X ≤ 4) = 0.9473
∴n = 4
Textbook: Ex 5d page 297 Questions 6 – 10, 12 (first 2 sentences), 13
13(b)
P( X > n) < 0.030
1 − P( X ≤ 5) = 1 − 0.9643 = 0.0357
1 − P( X ≤ 6) = 1 − 0.9884 = 0.0226
∴n > 6

Using The Poisson Distribution As An Approximation To The Binomial

Distribution.

When the sample size, n, is large, say, n > 50 and p is small (p < 0.1)
such that
np < 5, then the Binomial distribution can be approximated using a
Poisson distribution with mean and variance equals to np. Then we use
X ∼ Po (np), instead of using X ~ Bin (n, p). The approximation
improves as n → ∞ and p → 0.

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1. A factory packs bolts in boxes of 500. The probability that a bolt is
defective is 0.002. Find the probability that a box contains 2 defective
bolts.
2. A firm selling electrical components packs them in boxes of 60. On
average 2% of the components are faulty. Find the probability that
there will be more than 2 defective components in a box.
3. Find the probability that at least two double 6's is obtained when two
dice are thrown 90 times.

Answer
1. 0.18394 2. 0.121 3. 0.7127

Textbook: Ex 5e pg 3001-301

5 a)
X ~ Bin(120,0.025)
np = 3 ⇒ use Poisson
More than 116 people arrive means that less than 4 people do
not arrive ⇒ P ( X < 4)
b) Empty seats means < 116 arrive.
Thus > 4 people do not arrive ⇒ P(X > 4)
6 ii)
P(X ≥ 1)
−n
1 − e 80 ≥ 0.9
−n
e 80 ≤ 0.1
−n ≤ ln 0.1
80
n ≥ 184.207
n = 185

8b)at least 145 germinate means that at most 5 do not germinate.

P ( X ≤ 5)

10 (last part)
Not suitable because the probability of dialing a wrong number is
not constant. If in the first attempt I dialed a wrong number, on
my next attempt, I will be more careful, so the probability of dialing
the wrong number is less than 0.015.
Poisson approximation is suitable because number of telephone
calls made is large, n = 50, and the probability of dialing a wrong
number is small, p = 0.015, so np = λ < 5

11.Assumption: The sample of 55 adults in the UK was selected at

random.
The Poisson approximation is suitable since n is large, n = 55, and
p is small, p = 0.08 such that np = 4.73 < 5.

The Distribution Of Two Independent Poisson Variables

The sum of two independent Poisson variables X, Y with parameters λ

and µ, respectively, is a Poisson variable with parameters λ + µ .

If X ∼ Po(λ ) and Y ∼ Po(µ ), then X + Y ∼ Po(λ + µ )

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1. The switchboard of a small business handles both incoming and
outgoing calls. During the lunch-hour on any day, the numbers of
incoming and outgoing calls are independent and have Poisson
distributions with means 5 and 3, respectively. Find the probabilities
that during the lunch-hour of a randomly chosen day, there will be
a) exactly three outgoing calls
b) at least six incoming calls
c) a combined number of three calls

d) one incoming call and two outgoing calls

2. The probability distributions of the number of daily absences of male

and female employees in a factory can be approximated by a Poisson
model with mean 0.8 for males and 0.6 for females. Assuming that
the sum of two independent Poisson variables is a Poisson variable,
calculate, correct to three decimal places, the probability that
a) two men and two women are absent on the same day

b) four employees are absent on any one day

c) during a working week of five days there are no more than
two employees absent.

3. A warehouse supplies 2 stores with crates of HOLDFAST glue. The

numbers of crates per week needed by the two stores follow Poisson
distributions with means 0.6 and 0.1 respectively.
a) Calculate the probability that two or more crates in total are
needed from the warehouse in any week.

b) What is the minimum stock requirement needed in the warehouse

for which there is a probability greater than 0.9 that all the stores’
requirements can be met.

Answer
1 a. 0.22404 b. 0.38404 c. 0.028626
d. 0.007548
2 a. 0.0142 b. 0.0395 c. 0.0296
3 a. 0.1558 b. P(X < n) > 0.9
n=2

Textbook: Exercise 5f Page 303

Textbook: Miscellaneous Exercise 5g Page 307 – 311
Mixed Test 5A Page 312
Mixed Test 5B Page 313

Using The Normal Distribution As An Approximation To The Poisson

Distribution.

If X ∼ Po (λ), then E(X) = λ and Var (X) = λ. When λ is large (say λ > 15),
the normal distribution can be used as an approximation, where
X ∼ N (λ, λ). Since Poisson is a discrete distribution and the normal
distribution is a continuous distribution, a continuity correction must
be used.

1. A radioactive disintegration gives counts that follow a Poisson

distribution with mean count per second is 25. Find the probability

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 that in 1 second the count is between 23 and 27 inclusive,
i) using the Poisson distribution.
ii) using the normal approximation to the Poisson distribution.
2. In a certain factory the number of accidents occurring in a month
follows a Poisson distribution with mean 4. Find the probability that
there will be at least 40 accidents during one year.
3. The number of calls received by an office switchboard per hour follows
a Poisson distribution with parameter 30. Using the normal
approximation to the Poisson distribution, find the probability that, in
one hour,
i) there are more than 33 calls,
ii) there are between 25 and 28 calls, inclusive,
iii) there are 34 calls.

4. A book of 1000 pages contains 400 misprints. Assuming that these

misprints occur independently and at random throughout the book,
name a standard distribution which may be used to model this
situation. Find the probability that
a i) the first page contains 3 misprints.
ii) the probability that the first ten pages contain more than 5
misprints.
b Find an approximate value for the probability that the first 100
pages contains fewer than 35 misprints.

5. A biologist is studying the behavior of sheep in a large field. The field

is divided into a number of equally sized squares and the average
number of sheep per square is 2.5. The sheep are randomly spread
throughout the field.
a Suggest a suitable model for the number of sheep in a square and
give a suitable value for any parameter/s used.
b Calculate, the probability that a randomly selected square contains
i) no sheep
ii) more than 4 sheep
In another field the average number of sheep per square is 20 and the
sheep are scattered randomly throughout the field. Using a suitable
approximation, find the probability that a randomly selected square
contains fewer than 15 sheep.

Answer
1. i) 0.383 ii) 0.383
2. 0.8901
3. i) 0.2614 ii) 0.2343 iii) 0.0558
4a i) 0.00715 ii) 0.215 b 0.192
5b i) 0.0821 ii) 0.1088; 0.1093

Textbook: Exercise 7g page 390-391

Miscellaneous Exercises 7h Page 398 – 401
Mixed Test 7A Page 401
Mixed Test 7B Page 402

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