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ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

Portfolio Update Emerging India Portfolio (EIP)


June-2012

This document is provided for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other instruments. Our services will be rendered strictly in accordance with the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993. Please read the Disclosure Document prior to engaging our services. The information contained herein is based on our assumptions and can be changed without any prior intimation. This information must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Please consult your financial, legal or tax advisors. Investment in securities is risky and there is no assurance of returns or preservation of capital. Neither the firm, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost capital, lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. No part of this material may be copied or duplicated or redistributed without prior written consent.

Agenda

1
2 3 4 5

Fundamental Equities Platform


The India Story

Outlook
Market Cycles Emerging India Portfolio

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

ENAM Fundamental Equities Platform

ENAM Fundamental Equities Platform


INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
Seek to identify high-quality businesses that are structurally well-positioned, have sustainable competitive advantages and strong execution capability for consistent long-term growth

Opportunity
Size and attractiveness Addressability

Longevity
Sustainable competitive advantages and their lead time

Management
Intellect + Integrity Alignment of objectives

Value Accretive
EVA Positive, duration and magnitude Free cash flows Return on incremental capital Improper capital allocation can be destructive

Discipline
Focus Avoid distractions Volatility is not a threat, its an opportunity ! Correcting mistakes ought to be a religion Ignorance and denial drive averaging

Quality and sustainability of growth


Risk mitigation

Predictability, adaptability, resilience


Entry barriers Technology and processes Access to natural resources / markets Costs, productivity and efficiency Brands and distribution network Replicability and scalability of business model

Orientation towards minority


Adaptability and innovation Ambition tempered by reality

Incremental improvements can generate disproportionate returns

Being part of a herd never helped anybody


Differentiate between value based / event based and hype based buying

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 4 -

ENAM Fundamental Equities Platform


RESEARCH PROCESS
Research and investment process

S&P CNX 500, other select ideas

Prospective Investment Universe


BSE 500, CNX S&P 500 Selective coverage outside the above Special cases, such as stocks with PIPE investments

Investment Universe Research & Analysis Idea Generation

Over 250 companies

Selection criteria
Market cap > INR 10 Bn (~USD180 mn) Key ratios Qualitative aspects Thematic views

40-50 stocks ~25 stocks

ENAM Investment Universe


Universe selection is a comprehensive and ongoing feature of the investment process, done using sophisticated proprietary financial models Over 250 companies thus selected are covered using rigorous research process Represents over 80% of market cap Revised quarterly

Portfolio Construction, Risk Management & Monitoring

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 5 -

ENAM Fundamental Equities Platform


INVESTMENT PROCESS
UNIVERSE Defining the playing field

DETAILED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS In-depth Analysis

IDEA GENERATION & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION High Conviction Investments

PORTFOLIO REVIEW Tracking existing investments

UNIVERSE SELECTION IS A COMPREHENSIVE & ON-GOING FEATURE OF OUR INVESTMENT PROCESS: 1) Quarterly review by the Investment team 2) Process involves comprehensive analysis based on various criteria

WE UNDERTAKE A VERY COMPREHENSIVE BUT A SIMPLE MODEL FOR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS. THIS INVOLVES: 1) Dissecting the P&L to arrive at real profits from Operations - This goes a long way to determine the sustainable margins 2) Balance Sheet Analysis to evaluate efficient utilization of capital 3) Close monitoring of key drivers that may impact the operating performance
TEAM HAS EXTENSIVE KNOWLEDGE OF COMPANIES AT GRASS ROOT LEVEL

OUR PROCESS INVOLVES: 1) Financial Analysis 2) Discussions amongst internal and external analysts 3) Management meetings 4) Understanding of internal and external levers governing the sustainability of performance 5) Meeting competitors to assess competitive strengths 6) Evaluating attractive entry levels and potential returns 7) Strict adherence to risk management guidelines

PORTFOLIO MONITORING INVOLVES: 1) Closely monitoring domestic and global macro factors 2) Actively engaged with the company management 3) FORECAST SHEET Acts like an investment monitoring radar screen across our investee Cos and alternate opportunities in the market 4) Track portfolio as per risk management guidelines 5) Target valuations to rebalance portfolio

Market Cap Key Ratios Qualitative aspects Thematic views

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 6 -

Risk Management
The investment team strictly follows a well designed, dynamic and prudent risk management policy to mitigate the inherent risk in equities Comprehensive risk management comprises:
Flexibility to deploy the total portfolio in cash for downside protection

Diversification and liquidity management


Adherence to stringent exposure limits on sectors, business groups and individual companies Regular monitoring to ensure compliance with risk management guidelines No use of derivatives / leverage trades Third party independent assurance of activities, processes and controls

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 7 -

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

The India Story Down But Not Out

India Remains On The Economic Growth Path


1990 GDP Average GDP Growth Market Cap USD Bn % USD Bn 313 5.6 27 2000 461 5.6 209 2010 1,380 7.3 1,372 2012 1,750* 6.5* 1,131

BSE Sensex
Global Trade Import Export Foreign Exchange Reserves Population Working Age Population INR / USD
Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Business Beacon, ENAM Research * 2012 Estimates

Index

781

5,001

17,528

17,404

USD Bn USD Bn USD Bn Mn % INR

21 17 6 838 58 18.1

50 37 38 1,006 61 46.7

278 176 277 1,173 64 44.7

397* 286* 295 1,210* 65* 50.9

Data as of financial year ending 31st March, 2012

India took more than 60 years to cross a GDP of USD 1Trn By end of this decade, Indias GDP may rise over USD 6 Trn
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 9 -

Rapid Growth Across Key Industries


Growth 100 Most Profitable Companies Aggregate Profits of 100 most profitable companies (INR bn.)
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

Software Exports (INR bn.)


3,500 3,346

5138

3,000

2,500
2,000 1,500
30% CAGR

1981 332 861

1,000
500 0 109

0
FY99 FY04 FY09 FY14(e)

Telecom Subscriber Growth

Airline Industry Growth

Source: ENAM Research


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 10 -

(Source: AAI, DGCA)

India To Emerge As One Of The Largest Economies


GDP of key countries (USD Trn) 2000
1 2

2010-30 Estimated GDP growth (%) 2020 (e) 14.6 5.7 China US 23.2
India
China
9.3
7.0

2010 9.6 4.7 US China

US Japan

2.8

1.7

1.7

1.2

1.2

France

3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Germany
UK France China Italy Canada Brazil Mexico India

1.9
1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

Japan
Germany France UK Italy Brazil Canada Russia India

5.4
3.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4

Japan
India Germany Brazil Russia UK France Canada

6.8
6.5 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.6 2.7
16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 (4.0) (8.0)

India: Resilient to external shocks


GDP (Y-o-Y %)
USA GDP Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP

Mar-99

Germany

Japan

Italy
Mar-12
Mar-10 Mar-11

Mar-98

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

US
Mar-03

23.0

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Source: ENAM, Bloomberg Source: Standard Chartered, Citigroup

Improvements in infrastructure, deregulation and education could allow India to grow rapidly for decades
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 11 -

Mar-09

Market Capitalization Will Reflect The Size And Growth


Population
Mn

GDP
USD Bn

GDP / Capita
USD (PPP)

Market Cap
USD Bn

MKT / GDP

Developed
US Canada UK Germany France Japan Italy Brazil China India* 311 34 62 82 66 128 61 191 1,341 1,210 14,587 1,577 2,249 3,281 2,560 5,459 2,051 2,088 5,927 1,750** 48,387 40,541 36,090 37,897 35,156 34,740 30,464 11,769 8,382 3,694** 11,661 1,894 3,034 1,239 1,412 3,502 460 1,195 3,131 1,131 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7

Market cap could grow


Source: Bloomberg, IMF, EAMC, as on 31 Dec 2011 India Data as of 31 Mar 2012 ** 2012 Estimates

over USD 4 Trn by 2020

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 12 -

India - Long-term Pillars Of Growth


SAVINGS

CONSUMPTION

INFRASTRUCTURE

Savings: Favourable demographics, rising urbanization and higher income levels are likely to boost Indias savings pool to ~USD 1.4 Trn by 2020 (~todays GDP), of which financial savings corpus is likely to be ~USD 540 Bn This will form the bulwark of discretionary consumption and also fund infra creation A bulk of Indias savings come from households rather than corporates, making it a stable source of funds

Consumption J-Curve: Indias already sizeable domestic consumption will take off in ~201520 as demographics result in the figure of 50:40 for dependency : working pop, as it did for the US in the 60s & China in the 90s

Infra & Capex: India is putting up a massive across-the board Core Infra backbone with an overall investment of ~USD 1 Trn over the next five years Power, roads, ports, airports etc will be the key segments that will witness explosive growth

In sharp contrast to major economies which have long term issues to be addressed, Indias issues are more immediate term, with structural pillars in place

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 13 -

Indian Households Are Wealthy


GDP growth, savings and investment rate Urban housing stock ~$ 5 trn

Source: Bloomberg, ENAM Research

Gold: 19,000 tons (approx.) = ~ $1 trn


2100 1800 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 c (USD/troy ounce)
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

Indians holding ~$ 1 trn in Deposits


(USD trn)

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

Source: RBI

Source: ENAM Research

Indian citizens have witnessed a generational wealth effect


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 14 -

FY11

Consumption
MULTIPLE SECTORS SET FOR HIGH GROWTH

2010: Low penetration (mortgages as a % of GDP)

Consumption boom across categories Industry


Organized Retail Home Mortgage

100 75 50 25 0

(%)

80

86 93

Units
US$ bn US$ bn mn p.a. mn subs mn p.a. US$ bn

2010
24 91 3 24 6 22

2020(e)
266 646 18 116 25 89

CAGR(%)
27 22 20 17 16 15

7
India

12

17

32 26 29

39 41

48

Air Conditioners Digital Pay TV Refrigerators Packed Foods

Two-Wheelers

mn p.a.
US$ bn

9
10

35
34

14
13

Thailand

Taiwan

Singapore

Denmark

Germany

China

Malaysia

Korea

HK

USA

UK

HPC Products

Source: ENAM Research

Consistent economic growth to be followed by consumption boom


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 15 -

Infrastructure Opportunity Is Equally Large


India is visibly under-invested in infrastructure USD 1 Trn investment required by 2017 of which over 50% expected from private sector Infrastructure spend is barely 5% of GDP (incl. Energy, Telecom, Power, Transport) vs. approx. 12% in China

Government plans to increase infrastructure spend to 11% of GDP in FY17

11th Plan Sectoral Funding Break-Up


Electricity Roads & Bridges Telecom Railways Irrigation Water Supply & Sanitation Ports Airports Storage Oil & Gas Pipeline

12th Plan Total USD Bn


310 170 138 108 108 113 45 23 10 5

Total USD Bn
165 70 88 50 63 28 10 10 3 33

% of total invt.
32% 14% 17% 10% 12% 5% 2% 2% 0.4% 6%

% of total invt.
30% 17% 13% 11% 11% 11% 4% 2% 1% 1%

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 155 178 203 230 9.0% 9.5% 10.3% 9.9%

10.7%

11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0%

260

8.5% 8.0%

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Total Infra Investment (USD Bn) Infra Investment as % of GDP

Total Infra Investment

513

100%

1,025

100%

Unique opportunity to own annuity assets in a reflating economy


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 16 -

Indians & Corporates Are OK But Not The Government


Households Steady
Gross Dom savings = $340bn

India Inc. Resilient


Corporates

Government Under Stress


Fiscal Def = ~$100bn
On B/S: Interest: $60 bn Subsidies: ~$35bn

Household Savings: $230bn Low leverage Wealth effect: Property Stocks Gold

Corporate profits ~$80bn High RoE Competitiveness Low leverage Earnings slowing, but not at precipice unlike developed world

WAY OUT
Asset sales & Collections

Telecom: Spectrum auction Coal auctions Disinvestment of PSUs Land bank unlocking (ie land etc) Railways, LIC etc Higher Tax/ GDP collections GST, DTC NELP VIII/ KG Basin Gas profit share

The deficit of the government can be funded with proactive asset sales
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 17 -

But Government Is Not Bankrupt


Government Has a Large Asset Bank which can be Unlocked Government Debt as % of GDP
Prime Land in Cities
Abundant Natural Resources: Coal (fourth-largest reserves in the world), Iron ore, Manganese, Mica, Bauxite, Titanium ore, Chromite, Natural gas, Diamonds, Petroleum, Limestone and Thorium (world's largest along Kerala's shores) Investments in Public Sector Companies and Undertakings Disinvestments Official Gold Reserves 615 Tonnes ~ $36Bn

Indias tax incidence is the lowest among its EM peers Increase leads to
additional revenue

Iron Ore - Reserves

% Disinvestment from PSU (USD Bn)

Governments hidden weapons in a fight for liquidity


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 18 Source: ENAM Research

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

Outlook

Positives Building Up

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0

10.0 9.0
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0

(2.0)

1.0 0.0

Feb-10

Nov-10

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-11

Feb-07

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-11

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

India WPI (RHS)


Source: Bloomberg

Repo Rate

Inflation Cooling Off Will Lead to Further Interest Rate Cuts


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 20 -

May-12

Positives Building Up
CAD Likely to Shrink in FY 13
M ar-13e ( USD bn) Exports Imports o/w Oil imports o/w Non oil imports Trade balanc e ( I) Trade balance/GDP (%) Invisibles ( net) ( II) o/w Software o/w Remittances Current ac c ount ( I+II=A) CAD/G DP ( %) Foreign investment FDI FII Banking capital NRI deposits ECBs+supplier's credit etc Rupee debt service Other capital account items Capital ac c ount ( B) % of GDP Overall balanc e ( A+B)
Source: ENAM Research

CAD, ex-Gold is Not Worrisome


Oil @ 110 342 535 146 389 ( 193) (10) 124 54 70 ( 69) ( 3.4) 23 12 15 8 23 (1) 6 79 4 10 Oil @ 120 345 549 159 389 ( 204) (10) 130 58 72 ( 74) ( 3.7) 25 14 16 8 21 (1) 6 82 4 8

Oil @ 100 340 521 132 389 ( 181) (9) 120 52 68 ( 61) ( 3.1) 20 12 12 5 24 (1) 5 72 4 11

INR depreciation is a positive for exports Reduction of gold imports by ~25% YoY, can shave off ~USD 12 bn from the import bill (at current gold prices) USD 10/bbl correction in oil prices will shave off ~USD 14 bn from the import bill

Crude oil + Gold account for ~44% of total imports. Any correction in the quantum of these could reduce the strain on CAD significantly
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 21 -

Positives Building Up
Commodities Showing Signs of Softening
600 550 500 CRB Comm Index

450
400 350 300 250 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Aug-11 May-12
Mar-11 Feb-12 Mar-12

Feb-07

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10

World Oil Demand (mbpd)


47 46 46.3 46.4 45.5 44.5 Mar-11

World Oil Supply (mbpd)


60 50 40 30 20 34.8 37.4 37.5

51

51

51

45
44 43 42 41 40 OECD 42.5

43.2

Feb-12 Mar-12

10
0 Non-OECD OPEC Non-OPEC

Global slowdown leads to softening of commodity prices


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 22 -

Source: Bloomberg

Nov-11

Feb-12

Valuations At Multi-Year Lows


OFFERS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE INDIASTORY

Sensex FY16E
P/E 17: @ 41,508 (26.9% CAGR) P/E 15: @ 36,625 (23.0% CAGR) P/E 13: @ 31,685 (18.6% CAGR)

Source: Bloomberg

Markets at Attractive Levels Long Term Story of India is Intact


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 23 -

Disparity Across Sectors


Industry

FY-13 Fwd. P/E


26 22

FMCG Food Beverage & Tobacco

Pharma & Bio-Technology May 2012 P/E 11.80 Software Services Telecommunication

19 15 12

Capital Goods Automobiles & Components


Energy

11 9
9

Wide Disparity across sectorsSeveral sectors at historic lows


Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 24 -

Value Investing
DIFFERENT PHASES OF A MARKET CYCLE
4: Bubble 2-3: Fair to Over valuation

1: Undervaluation

Asset & Cost inflation Capex/ IPO/ Credit cycle revives Boom spreads, initially earnings driven (phase 2), later multiples-driven (ph 3)

P/E expansion, Easy credit New Themes and Valuation Paradigms Virility Symbols (Towers, diversification/ M&A) Capex > near-future requirements Retail & IPO euphoria Shock/ Leaders in trouble We are here

6: Bear Phase 5: Correction & Bear rally

Easy & cheap Liquidity Value buying Catalysts: Regulatory, Commodities

Leading stocks fall sharply, followed by pull back as Left outers jump in & earnings still growing Leadership narrows Profits OK, but P/E falls Sharp, swift, short-lived no-reason rallies

Earnings crack Tight money demand & EPS fall

Bust

Easy credit to revive growth

Phase 0

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4

Phase 5

Phase 6

Phase 0

Value Outperforms Growth


Source: Marc Faber, ENAM

Growth Outperforms Value

Value and Growth on par

Value Outperforms Growth

Value and Growth Investment styles change leadership during different phases of market cycles
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 25 -

Investor Psychology Cycle


EUPHORIA

DENIAL

OPTIMISM

DESPAIR

HOPE
REINFORCEMENT FATIGUED EXIT

CONVICTION
FEAR

PANIC

Source: ENAM

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. Sir John Templeton
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 26 -

Challenges remain
Political uncertainty and regional differences Governance and Corruption Fiscal situation

High Interest rates


Crude oil prices Shortage of skilled manpower (NREGA) Uncertainty in EU & Reversal of Globalisation Geopolitical Risk

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 27 -

Key Reforms - Not Now But Not Never


Reforms

Curbing Expenditure

Efficiency

Attracting Foreign Investment in

UID Size of Govt. staff Subsidy reforms: Fuel & Fertilizers

Land Acquisition Act SEB reforms GST Education

Energy Mining Organized Retail Infrastructure

A positive surprise on Reforms could spur growth, inward flows , currency & markets
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 28 -

ENAM OUTLOOK : 2012-13


India still remains one of the fastest growing economies in the world and a very favourable long-term investment destination Indias problems are more internal than external Inflation should ease due to softening of commodity prices Interest rates are still high but expect RBI to steadily reduce the same While urban India is witnessing some challenges, rural India continues to boom There could be positive surprises on the political front

Market valuations witnessing huge disparity across sectors which offer immense
opportunity With a few favourable changes market could cross its previous peak by March 2013

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 29 -

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

Market Cycles

The First Market Cycle Of Our Generation: 88 - 91


4,500 4,000

Bofors scandal breaks out

India forced to pledge gold

Gulf war I

Politics: 4 PMs in 4 years!, India forced to liberalize in 91

3,500

INR: BoP crisis as CAD rose to ~3%. India forced to pledge gold. INR depreciated by 11% pa from 88 to 91 to reach Rs 20
Inflation: High teen Primary & Fuel inflation Interest rates: Thus, market interest rates at >20% The bull market of 1991-92 was against the backdrop of the Gulf war, liberalisation (incl. INR devaluation from Rs 20 to 29), culminating in the market scam

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Sx returns: INR: 79% / $: 49% GDP: 10.1%

Sx returns: INR: 9%/ $: -0.3%


GDP: 6.1%

Sx returns: INR: 50% / $: 31% GDP: 5.3%

Sx returns: INR: 267% / $: 150% GDP: 1 .4%

0 Apr-88 Apr-89 Apr-90 Apr-91

Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 31 -

Sensex In Rollercoaster: 1996 - 99


6,000

S.E Asian crisis Politics: Coalition politics at its worst: 3 PMs in 3 yrs

International sanctions

5,500

Global: SE Asian crisis & Russian debt default vitiate global flows INR: Depreciates sharply from Rs 36 to 42 as international sanctions imposed post Indias peaceful nuke tests

5,000

Inflation: Subdued (4-5%)


Interest rates: Thus, PLR fell from 16.5% in 96 to 13% by 99 Fiscal deficit: Jumps sharply from ~4% in 96 to >6% of GDP by 99

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000
Sx returns: INR: -0.2% / $: -5% Sx returns: INR: 16% / $: 5% GDP: 4.3% Sx returns: INR: -4% / $: -11% GDP: 6.7%

2,500

GDP: 7.9%

Apr-96

Apr-97

Apr-98

Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 32 -

Sensex: The SADIM* Touch: 2000 - 03


8,000

9/11

Gulf war II

Politics: Finally, a stable govt!

7,000

Global: TMT bubble bursts, 9/11, Gulf war II


INR: Orderly depreciation from ~44 to 47 through 2003 Inflation: Remained ~6% despite two severe droughts in 2001-03. Fuel prices jumped 20% as global oil prices nearly doubled to $28/ bbl Interest rates: PLRs dropped to lowest levels of ~10% as policy rates fell, laying the foundations of the biggest bull run

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000
Sx returns - INR: -21% / $: -26% GDP FY01: 4.3% Sx returns - INR: -18% / $: -21% GDP FY02: 5.5% Sx returns - INR: 4% / $: 4% GDP FY03: 3.9%

2,000 Jan-00
Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

* whatever you touch turns to shit (except PSUs & HDFC gp)

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 33 -

Sensex: The MIDAS Touch: 2004 - 07


PM: Dr. Manmohan Singh
21,000

Politics: Surprise victory of Congress

16,000

Global: Cheap Liquidity and housing bubble in Western Economies


INR: Strengthening of rupee from 44 to 39.80 Inflation: Dropped below ~5%. Global oil prices nearly doubled to $80/ bbl

11,000

6,000

Sx returns - INR: 16% / $: 16% GDP FY05: 7%

Sx returns - INR: 74% / $: 70% GDP FY06: 9.5%

Sx returns - INR: 16% / $: 19% GDP FY07: 9.6%

Sx returns* - INR: 60% / $: 77% GDP FY08: 9.3%

1,000 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07


Jan-08
Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research; Note: *From April 07 to
Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 34 -

8th

Jan 2008

Sensex: Financial Crisis: 2008 - 12


PM: Dr. Manmohan Singh
21,000

16,000

11,000

Politics: Congress retains the house in the second term with a coalition government Global: Lehman Crisis, American Housing bubble crash, EU Crisis INR: Global uncertainty and strengthening of US $ pulled INR down to 55 from 44 Inflation: Double digit inflation and high interest rates


6,000

Sx returns - INR: -38% / $: -51% GDP FY09: 6.7%


1,000 Mar-08
Source: Bloomberg; ENAM Research

Sx returns - INR: 81% / $: 104% GDP FY10: 8.4%

Sx returns - INR: 11% / $: 12% GDP FY11: 8.4%


Mar-10

Sx returns - INR: -11% / $: -22% GDP FY12: 6.5%

Mar-09

Mar-11

Mar-12

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 35 -

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

Portfolio Strategy

This document is provided for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other instruments. The information contained herein is based on our assumptions and can be changed without any prior intimation. This information must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Please consult your financial, legal or tax advisors. Investment in securities is risky and there is no assurance of returns or preservation of capital. Neither the firm, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost capital, lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. No part of this material may be copied or duplicated or redistributed without prior written consent.

Our Investment Strategy


2012 - 2013 Adopt a conservative approach

Focus on risk adjusted returns


Invest in businesses driven by Free Cash Flows, Secular growth, Consumption and increasing Globalisation

Long-term profit trend-line is very important


Conservative promoters with sound business models Identify stocks with a high probability of re-rating

Monitor macro dynamics, respond quickly to the new environment and fine tune the
investment strategy accordingly

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 37 -

Portfolio Positioning
EMERGING INDIA PORTFOLIO (EIP)

Portfolio Breakdown (%)

2.8

2.6

2.5

Consumption Global
21.7 38.6

Secular Growth Infrastructure

Diversified& Others
Cash
31.7

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 38 -

Portfolio Summary
2012 2013 Domestic macro issues, more than global issues, are impacting our markets We now see signs of the economy bottoming out

Our investment strategy has been designed to reduce volatility in the portfolio
The focus of our strategy is to minimize earnings cyclicality with a greater focus on risk-adjusted returns to improve the overall performance of the portfolio Current portfolio positions include growth and value stocks across sectors, offering superior returns All portfolio positions undergo a strict evaluation process and constant monitoring Objective is to deliver superior returns on a risk adjusted basis

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 39 -

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

Portfolio Performance

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Portfolio performance

06 Oct-10

31 May-12 84.1*

Portfolio Value - Unit NAV (Representative)


Portfolio: EIP CAGR: Portfolio return Index: S&P CNX 500 CAGR Index return Index: BSE Midcap CAGR Index return Alpha vs. S&P CNX 500 CAGR Alpha vs. BSE Midcap CAGR

100.0

(9.8) 5,091.1 3,913.1 (14.6) 5,907.9 (19.2)

8,426.5

4.8

9.3

* Source: Anand Rathi PWM

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 41 -

Portfolio performance since inception


Emerging India Portfolio (Performance Since Inception)
105 100 95 90
86.9 99.8 96.1 97.1 90.9 89.6 84.1 82.8 96.6

85 80 75 70 65 60

92.6 76.9 82.1 70.1 74.7

81.6

EIP Aggr NAV

CNX500

BSE Midcap

Enam / Asset Management / India Fundamental Equities Platform / EIP / - 42 -

ENAM ASSET MANAGEMENT

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