Risk Makes Sense

Human Judgement and Risk

Dr Robert Long and Joshua Long

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry

Author:
Title:

Long, Robert
Risk makes sense : human judgement and risk / Robert Long, Joshua Long.

ISBN:

9780646570945 (pbk.)

Subjects:

Risk-taking (Psychology) Risk perception. Risk--Sociological aspects.

Risk Makes Sense

Human Judgement and Risk

Social choice.
Other Authors/Contributors: Long, Joshua.
Dewey Number: 302.12

Scotoma Press
10 Jens Place
Kambah ACT 2902
Copyright 2012 by Robert Long.
All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form.
ISBN 978-0-646-57094-5
Graphic design and layout by Justin Huehn.

Dr Robert Long and Joshua Long

Contents
With Thanks............................................................................................................................................................................................................. viii
Glossary............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ix
Book Logo...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ix
What This Book Is About.................................................................................................................................................................................x
Structure and Use of the Book.................................................................................................................................................................. xii
SECTION ONEWhat We Know About Risk............................................................................................................................................... 1
CHAPTER 1Myths About Risk................................................................................................................................................................................3
An Introduction to Myths About Risk: Ted, the Tractor and a Risk Trade-off........................................... 3
Myth Busting................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Common Sense Created Not Assumed.............................................................................................................................................. 6
The Lord Young Report and unCommon Sense........................................................................................................................ 8
They are Just Idiots - The Intelligence Myth.................................................................................................................................. 8
The Precaution Myth and a Wayside Story.................................................................................................................................. 10
Perceptions and Scotoma................................................................................................................................................................................ 13
The Engineer Out the Idiot Myth........................................................................................................................................................ 14
The Follow Your Feelings Myth............................................................................................................................................................... 15
The can do Myth.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
The Anxiety and Fear Myth......................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Motivation and Learning as Myth Breakers............................................................................................................................... 19
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
CHAPTER 2 Gambling and Risk....................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Why Gambling and Risk?............................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Learning From Young People at-risk............................................................................................................................................... 27
Risk and Youth Detention............................................................................................................................................................................. 29
The Poker Machine Maze.............................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Is Risk Neutral?........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Risk Assessment by Weight?...................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Counter-Intuitive Responses to Risk................................................................................................................................................. 36
Responses to a Risk Averse Society...................................................................................................................................................... 37
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
CHAPTER 3Language, Culture and Discourse................................................................................................................................ 41
Playing Safe................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
The Fundamentalist Quest for Certainty........................................................................................................................................ 43
Language as a Tool of Trade........................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Its Important What is Not Said............................................................................................................................................................. 47
Culture: More Than Just What We Do Around Here.................................................................................................... 49

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Risk Makes Sense

Cultural Difference and Language........................................................................................................................................................ 55

Generative Culture Spin................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Culture of Risk Scorecard.............................................................................................................................................................................. 58
The Power of the Negative and the Positive................................................................................................................................ 62
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
SECTION TWOWhat We Know About Human Sensemaking.......................................................................................... 65
CHAPTER 4Learning, Motivation and Risk......................................................................................................................................... 67
An Apprenticeship in Learning............................................................................................................................................................... 67
Learning About Learning............................................................................................................................................................................. 70
Types of Learning.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 73
The Essentials in Learning............................................................................................................................................................................ 77
Learning and an Induction Scorecard................................................................................................................................................ 78
Results............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80
How We Learn is What We Learn...................................................................................................................................................... 80
Motivation and Learning............................................................................................................................................................................... 81
Creativity, Learning, Doubt and Risk ............................................................................................................................................... 81
Entertaining Doubt, the Key to Learning..................................................................................................................................... 82
Motivation, Design and Attraction...................................................................................................................................................... 84
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 85
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 85
CHAPTER 5The Unconscious and Risk.................................................................................................................................................. 87
Perception Blindness and Observation Capability................................................................................................................ 87
The Reliability of Our Perception.......................................................................................................................................................... 90
The Wise Delinquency of Decision Makers................................................................................................................................ 91
Bias, Balance and Rational Systems..................................................................................................................................................... 92
Intuitive, Counterintuitive and Nonintuitive Thinking..................................................................................................... 94
Cognitive Dissonance and Why Some Decisions About Risk Dont Seem to Make Sense........ 96
A Beaconsfield Story about Dissonance.......................................................................................................................................102
One Brain, Three Minds...............................................................................................................................................................................103
The Unconscious and Risk.........................................................................................................................................................................104
The Unconscious and Priming...............................................................................................................................................................105
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................107
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................107
CHAPTER 6SenseMaking, Mindfulness and Risk.................................................................................................................. 109
How do we Make Sense?............................................................................................................................................................................109
Mindfulness and High Reliability Organisations................................................................................................................111
Cultural Change...................................................................................................................................................................................................116
Mapping Organisational Sensemaking.........................................................................................................................................118
MiProfile Structure...........................................................................................................................................................................................122

MiProfile Survey Summary.......................................................................................................................................................................128

Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................129
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................129
SECTION THREEWhat We can do to Make Better Sense of Risk.......................................................................131
CHAPTER 7Framing and the Language of Zero........................................................................................................................ 133
Since When Did Intolerance Become a Virtue?..................................................................................................................133
The Zero Harm Discourse.........................................................................................................................................................................135
Its Zero Degrees in Canberra Today and They Say It Will Be Twice as Cold Tomorrow.........136
What is the Risk Discourse at your Work?................................................................................................................................138
Please Explain? Questions about Zero..........................................................................................................................................139
What is an Aspiration? A Thought from Theology...........................................................................................................139
Are We Priming Workers to Fail?......................................................................................................................................................140
Sense Pathways......................................................................................................................................................................................................141
Risk Makes Sense...............................................................................................................................................................................................143
Good Goal Setting............................................................................................................................................................................................144
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................145
Transition....................................................................................................................................................................................................................145
CHAPTER 8Leadership and Conversations in Risk............................................................................................................... 147
Where To From Here?...................................................................................................................................................................................147
The Miracle of Dialogue..............................................................................................................................................................................149
Leadership in Risk - The Essential Capabilities...................................................................................................................150
Responding to Confirmation Bias......................................................................................................................................................152
Creativity and Improvisation, Leadership Excellence.....................................................................................................153
Sam is the Man.....................................................................................................................................................................................................154
Your Talk Matters - Skilled Conversations................................................................................................................................156
The Compliance Mentality Compared to Excellence in Risk Leadership..................................................158
Systems Fatigue, Human Nature and Flooding....................................................................................................................159
Entertaining Doubt, the Key to Managing Risk..................................................................................................................160
Thinking and Acting Outside The Box in Leadership.................................................................................................161
Challenging Punitive Culture with an Innovative Approach to Lead Indicators................................163
Challenging Dumb Down Thinking About Risk................................................................................................................164
Conclusion.................................................................................................................................................................................................................166
Bamboozled..............................................................................................................................................................................................................167
Workshop Questions.......................................................................................................................................................................................168
Further Directions..............................................................................................................................................................................................169
Training........................................................................................................................................................................................................................169
CHAPTER 9A Reading List................................................................................................................................................................................. 171
About the Authors.............................................................................................................................................................................................178
Notes................................................................................................................................................................................................................................179

vi

Chapter 1: Myths about Risk

Risk Makes Sense

vii

Foreward
I knew something was missing, but I could not put my finger on it. What I was doing lacked
completeness, logic, a recognition of reality. Things just did not seem to make complete sense. Here I
was, a mining engineer in charge of building an underground gold mine, recruiting experienced people,
developing and rolling out our safety management system, and guided by OHS legislation, Australian
Standards, Codes of Practice, guidelines, current industry standards, and a plethora of published and
borrowed material. Yet, something was still not quite right.
Risk management is a cornerstone of safety management, and legislation enshrines ones obligations to
identify hazards, reduce the risks, implement actions and monitor the outcomes. No-one should argue
with the moral, social and legal obligation to provide a safe work place, but what is safe? Can a work
place be without risks? Can all risks be identified and controlled to an acceptable level, whatever that
might mean?

Rob has helped me to understand that human behaviour, beliefs, attitudes and perceptions are variable,
volatile, inconsistent and personal. Risk management must deal with these human traits and emotions
a simple risk matrix solution wont. More paperwork is not the answer, and I hope that the legislators
recognise this in reading this book. Being mature enough to have adult conversations about the soft
side to safety management peoples perceptions, behaviours, attitudes human factors is essential.
Rob has helped me to understand the people side of risk, and this has helped me to make sense of risk
management. I hope this book does that for you also.
Matthew Gill

As I set about building the underground mine and the team that would operate it, where people would
go to work up to a kilometre underground, or if they were in the gold processing plant, be operating
around vats of sulphuric acid at 40 degrees Celsius, or cyanide (one of the most deadly chemicals known
to man), or pouring gold bullion that when molten was over 800 degrees, it became clear to me that
simply following the prescriptive risk management process of hazard identification, risk assessment, risk
mitigation actions and monitoring would not of itself result in the elimination of accidents. The notion
that we could be the conqueror of all risks by this simple method of using a likelihood / consequence
matrix, coming up with a ranking and believing we had actions that could control the risks pigeonholing them and allowing us to move on to the next challenge, seemed flawed. Why? Because people
were involved!
I was chair of the states minerals industry OHS Committee and early on organised and attended a
presentation on BBS Behavioural Based Safety. The classic examples of the Piper Alpha oil rig fire
and the space shuttle Columbia disaster were given that described the excellent safety systems and
procedures in place at the time, and the one common wild card people! This resonated with that which
I had been struggling to identify as missing how to manage risk and peoples interaction with that.
Then I met Rob Long. Robs wide ranging professional and academic experiences, his own quest to learn
more and contribute, and his engaging and inquisitive mind has made him a consultant, mentor and
friend of mine.
I have now worked with Rob for almost a decade, and at two mine sites, on a journey that has
involved the meshing together of risk management with people management in order to improve
safety performance at the workplace. It has involved the often confronting self assessment of my own
emotional intelligence, what is required in safety leadership, communication and listening, observing
and understanding. It has involved trying to understand peoples own risk taking behaviours, their
perceptions and risk tolerance, how the very blokey world of mining influences behaviour, what is said
and not said, what is done and not done, what culture is and isnt.

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Risk Makes Sense

Chapter 1: Myths about Risk

ix

With Thanks

Glossary

Helen, Rick, Josh, Kerrie and Jenni: every risk has a consequence, every adventure an unknown path,
every blind corner a new lesson. How did I know at the age of 20 that this journey with you would be
what it has become? Sometimes the best way to learn is to take the first step and with some hope, faith
and love, then turn those risks into blessings. You are the blessings of that journey.

aRational: not based or governed by reason. Neither rational nor irrational but non-rational.

Ava and Layla: whilst I would want you to be wrapped in cotton wool, I know that learning doesnt
come easily, without some hurt and pain. Every day I see you, I re-live the journey of love all over again.
Thanks Mitch for being so understanding, patient and generous.
Mates: Keith, Errol and Dave, thanks for your support and understanding.
Mentors: Graham, Robert, Clive, Daryll, Bill, Craig, Stuarte and Jim, thanks for your inspiration,
patience and passion.
Kathy, Chris, Brenda and Judy: Thanks for listening, challenging and caring.
A special thanks to Christine Wilde and Marg for proof reading and corrections.

Cognitive Dissonance: developed by Leon Festinger. Refers to the mental gymnastics required to
maintain consistency in the light of contradicting evidence.
Discourse: developed by Michael Foucault. The transmission of power in systems of thoughts
composed of ideas, attitudes, courses of action, beliefs and practices that systematically construct the
subjects and the worlds of which they speak.
Flooding: refers to when human senses are flooded beyond the capacity to cope.
Fundamentalism: originally coined in reference to a rigid theological movement in the USA in 1905
upholding the literal interpretation of the Bible. More generally, fundamentalism refers to rigid faith
like black and white thinking and actions on issues.
Heuristics: refer to experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery.
Heuristics are like mental short cuts used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution,
where an exhaustive search is impractical. Heuristics tend to become internal micro-rules.
Hubris: indicates a loss of contact with reality which results in extreme overconfidence and
complacency.
Mentalities: comes from the French Annales School of History and refers to the history of attitudes,
mindsets and dispositions. It denotes the psychosocial and cultural nature of history.

About the Book Logo

The three symbols on the cover and in the footer of this book serve to highlight the three key elements
required to make sense of risk. The first is the symbol for psychology, the Greek letter Psi. Whilst
this symbol is located in the head, making sense of risk is also about social psychology, the way we
think together and how we are affected by groups. The arational in sensemaking is critical if one is
to make sense of risk. Making sense of risk is much more than a rational logical exercise. The second
symbol of the dice represents uncertainty and chance, if we are going to make sense of risk, we need
to better understand how humans make decisions in states of uncertainty. The third symbol represents
the mechanics of the brain, the neuroscience of the brain and mind are critical in understanding how
humans make sense of risk.

Mindfulness: developed by Karl E. Weick and indicates: the preoccupation with failure; reluctance to
simplify interpretations; sensitivity to operations; commitment to resilience, and deference to expertise.
A full definition of mindfulness is in Chapter 6 SenseMaking, Mindfulness and Risk.
Priming: is an implicit memory effect which influences response. Priming is received in the
subconscious and transfers to enactment in the conscious.
Risk Homeostasis: developed by Gerald Wilde. The hypothesis of risk homeostasis holds that
everyone has his or her own fixed level of acceptable risk.
Scotoma: a scotoma is an area of loss or impairment of visual ability surrounded by a field of normal,
well-preserved vision. A blind spot can be physical, psychological and cultural.
Sensemaking: is about paying attention to ambiguity and uncertainty. Developed by Karl E. Weick
to represent the seven ways we make sense of uncertainty and contradiction. A full definition of
sensemaking is in Chapter 6 SenseMaking, Mindfulness and Risk.
Unconscious: processes of the mind which are not immediately known or made aware to the conscious
mind. The term subconscious is also used interchangeably and denotes a state below the conscious
state. The subconscious is more associated with psychoanalytics.

Risk Makes Sense

xi

What This Book Is About

A Newsletter in 2011 by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in the UK lists a number
of things that have been banned. Dodgem cars, school sack races and kite flying, amongst the
activities which have been banned. Some schools have banned kids playing on monkey bars
and others have banned leather footballs. A local council has instituted a $1000 penalty for kite
flying on council ovals in case somebody might get hit. Even the Royal British Legion had to
stop selling poppies with pins on Remembrance Day in case people might prick themselves.
(Safety Snippets Edition 22, September 2011)
Effective thinking and acting about risk is not only about the preservation of life but, the living of life.
This book is about the sense of learning, adventure and creativity in the interpretation of risk. The risk
management industry is about decisions and attempts to render the unpredictable consequences of
decisions, predictable and controllable. Such an endeavour is problematic furthermore, trends which
advocate the total elimination of risk, are even more problematic. The trajectory and language of the
anti-risk endeavour is life destroying and anti-learning. You cant live life without a trade-off for risk.
You cant learn without risk. The report above demonstrates just how absurd things have developed
in our risk adverse society. We seem more than ever preoccupied with law suits than learning, more
anxious about injury than adventure and, fearful of harm rather than welcoming creativity. The quest
for certainty, absolute control and the elimination of doubt is a fundamentalist pursuit.
This book is about how human judgement and decision making affect the way we make sense of risk.
The idea of making sense which is pivotal to this book, is about much more than an exercise in rational
logic. The idea of sensemaking and mindfulness come from Prof. K. E. Weick and the title of this book
Risk Makes Sense needs to be understood in light of the specific definition of these terms. This is a book
about the psychology of risk, learning, motivation, perception and possibilities. Learning should be the
lens through which we view risk. Risk is not bad.
Learning is how we should make sense of risk. In a growing risk averse society one could be forgiven
for thinking that risk doesnt make sense. The approach which seeks to manage what is uncertain with
rationalist-only approaches tend to make poor sense of risk. When so much of human decision making
is arational (non-rational) how does it make sense to respond with rationalist methods? The rationalist
approach to making sense of risk seeks sense in checklists, systems and regulation. When humans
respond to life arationally, the rationalist approach determines that risk doesnt make sense. This is
evident in the continued banning of activities, over regulation of actions and the expanding industry in
risk bureaucracy. When risk makes sense, rationalist approaches should decrease, not increase. Arational
human action requires arational human responses.
One rationale for writing this book is to dispel simplistic understandings of human management of
risk, what you might call, risk myths. What I term in the final chapter of the book risk quackery. The
trouble with risk myths is that they are believed, made unquestionable but dont work. This book seeks
to question these risk myths, open up debate and make the complexity of risk decision making more
sensible and understandable.

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Risk Makes Sense

So how do people make sense of risk? Do people who take risks leading to accidents, lack common
sense? Is it all just a matter of human error? What part does context play in how people take risks?
Are humans hard wired in ways that trigger risk taking? Does risk taking change just because of the
way we talk about it? These are some of the questions which are addressed in this book.
The book is structured in three parts. The first part is: What we Know about Risk, the second is: What
we Know about Human Sensemaking and the third is, What we can do to Make Better Sense of Risk.
We know a lot about the psychology of risk and human decision making, we have learned this from
understanding what happens to people with addictions. People who are attracted to cults, gambling and
substance abuse tell us a great deal about human judgment and risk. Some of the things we learn about
risk taking and uncertainty from these activities, inform the discussion in the book.
Unfortunately, whole industries have now built up around risk management, where even the slightest
risk is now turned into a negative, with many organisations choosing the slogan of zero harm as their
mantra. In some organisations it seems that the word risk has become associated and equated with the
word evil. The motto and language of zero is everywhere, sometimes spoken of in organisations like a
religious fundamentalist belief. The cult of zero is so pervasive that to question it incurs the wrath of an
inquisition. The language of zero has become threaded into popular safety culture and industry without
question. The language and trajectory of zero doesnt make sense under the lens of learning, motivation
and imagination. It is as if the very taking of a risk in some industries is equated with stupidity. It is as
if risk doesnt make sense.
Rather than resist risk or extinguish risk, we need to embrace it and better understand it from a
psychological and cultural perspective. This is a purpose of the book.
If we learn something from the discussion of this book it should be of practical value. Its not good
enough just to learn about how people make risk trade offs, how blindsidedness occurs or how
complexity floods the senses, we must know what to do about these things. Whilst it is helpful to have
tools for thinking about risk at work, when those thinking tools flood a persons capacity to think and,
clutter their sensemaking, people retreat back to assumptions and guesswork. Whatever we do to make
sense of risk, we must not further flood people.
When I was a boy the message at Sunday School was delivered like an insurance policy against
the greatest risk for humans, damnation and hell. The church tradition I was raised in could not
understand why people would not take up this insurance policy. Indeed, other religions competed
in variations to this story of risk and made different sense of it. How did this make sense?
We can learn a lot about how people make sense of risk from a study of fundamentalisms. After all,
how we make sense of risk is all about what we do with uncertainty.
The view of this book is not the view that comes from legislators and regulators who invest so much
in their work as guardians of the law. The discussion of this book has its focus on learning, psychology,
culture, and how making sense of risk makes us truly human. The discussion of the book should not be
interpreted as a direct attack on regulators and legislators but rather an approach to get some balance
into the debate of how people make sense of risk.

Chapter 1: Myths about Risk

xiii

The affirmation of one view, does not necessarily mean a total rejection of another. The discussion
of this book seeks to complement the regulatory-only view of risk. It is important to realise that
sensemaking about risk extends beyond the bounds of regulation and legislation. The realm of the
unconscious and arational are also critical in making sense of risk. The book argues that a regulationonly approach fails to fully make sense of risk. It is only when one includes and embraces the
psychology and culture of risk in understanding, that risk can truly make sense.
So, what is the response of this book to this malaise of banning, over regulation, flooding the
sensibilities of people, risk elimination and the nonsense of zero? The answer is not more paperwork
but more effective conversations and dialogue that is tuned into the psychology and culture of risk.
This is the direction of Chapter 8 Leadership and Conversations in Risk.
Risk Makes Sense is a disposition that understands the psychology and culture of risk, and the
counterintuitive nature of human decision making. As you read the book, the filter and focus of
learning should be applied to every topic; learning is the lens through which we can best make sense of
risk.
Rob Long

Structure and Use of the Book

This book is best thought of as a collection of short ideas following chapter themes. The first three
chapters (section one), deal with what we know about risk. Chapters four to six (section two) deal with
what we know about humans and sensemaking. Chapters seven and eight (third section) deal with
solutions and responses to issues discussed in the first six chapters.
The book is not intended to flow in a cumulative argument like an academic piece but is rather
intended for readers to surf like the Internet, jumping in and out of topics as required.
Some sources and books are referred to throughout the book more as a pointer for further interest, than
for academic validation. A complete reading list is at the end of the book for those who wish to delve
further into the topic.

n a world of growing risk aversion, one could be forgiven for thinking that risk doesnt make sense.
Risk elimination thinking and behaviour sets a trajectory for a dumb down workplace culture.
The more efforts are made to engineer out the idiot, the more the system creates an unthinking
workforce.
A Newsletter in 2011 by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in the UK lists a number
of things that have been banned. Dodgem cars, school sack races and kite flying, amongst the
activities which have been banned. Some schools have banned kids playing on monkey bars
and others have banned leather footballs. A local council has instituted a $1000 penalty for kite
flying on council ovals in case somebody might get hit. Even the Royal British Legion had to
stop selling poppies with pins on Remembrance Day in case people might prick themselves.
(Safety Snippets Edition 22, September 2011)
The report above demonstrates just how absurd things have developed in our risk adverse society. The
reality is, there is no learning without risk. Risk is not bad. You cant live life without a trade-off for
risk. You cant learn without risk. We seem more than ever preoccupied with law suits than learning,
more anxious about injury than adventure and, fearful of harm rather than welcoming creativity. The
quest for certainty, absolute control and the elimination of doubt is a fundamentalist pursuit.
The evolving language of risk elimination and cult-like fixation with everything zero is a language
which fosters the development of an unthinking workforce. As risk aversion increases, so do the
resulting management systems which accompany it. This results in flooding the worker so that they
default to gut instincts, personal micro-rules and risk quackery. This increases risk. Rather than resist
risk or extinguish risk, we need to embrace it and better understand it from a psychological and cultural
perspective. This is a purpose of the book.
The answer to the challenges of risk is not more paperwork but more effective conversations and
dialogue that is tuned into the psychology and culture of risk. When learning is the lens through which
we view risk, risk makes sense.

The book can also be used as a workshop and training manual for programs in leadership and
management in risk. Each chapter end has a section of suggested workshop questions which can be
used by safety or security professionals or as a framework for a safety culture or security culture training
programs with Dr Long and his team.
For those who wish to read the book from cover to cover, there are transitions at the conclusion of each
chapter to help direct flow between chapters.
Josh and I share the writing of this book which is most apparent in story references.

xiv

Risk Makes Sense

Chapter 9: A Reading List

xv