Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
19 July 2012
Developer Hock Lian Seng Fragrance Biz. KNG Group HLS Dev NSS Properties OKH Dev KNG Properties. SCB Terraform OKH Dev Oxley Vista Sim Lian Dev Soon Hock Realty Kng Land Wee Hur Dev Oxley Rising Boon Keng Dev Soilbuild Group OKH Management
Tender $
(SGD m)
PSF
(SGD)
Lease
(Yr)
27.3 43.4 48.1 78.2 66.0 71.8 63.5 7.3 84.2 43.4 128.1 41.4 26.9 76.8 158.1 65.2 29.3 27.2
139 255 114 136 118 142 176 174 152 343 170 157 87 95 169 75 76 71
30 60 30 60 30 60 30 45 60 60 60 30 30 60 60 60 60 60
19 July 2012
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AZ @ Paya Lebar
Figure 3: Postal district vs. rental yield ASP Rental Yield Postal District (SGD psf) (%) 3 633.7 3.6% 5 495.1 3.9% 8 484.0 3.5% 12 435.3 4.0% 13 604.2 2.8% 14 485.5 3.8% 16 207.5 11.9% 17 182.8 8.9% 19 505.8 3.6% 20 463.2 3.9% 22 275.2 7.2% 23 343.3 5.5% 25 225.0 7.4% 26 537.0 3.1% 27 260.3 6.5%
Source: URA
Figure 4: Paya Lebar Road 3-mth average rental ASP Avg Rental (SGD) (Pm psf) 836 2.2 Lowest selling prices 972 2.2 Average selling prices 1,547 2.2 Highest selling prices
Source: URA
AZ @ Paya Lebar is a freehold project recently launched by Ascendas Group. It is zoned for Business 1 use, which includes light and clean trade, within the vicinity of housing estates. The site is located in Ubi Industrial Estate and is directly opposite MacPherson MRT. Unit sizes range from 980-2,498 sq ft. This site has set record prices, with ground floor units selling from SGD1,700 to SGD2,100psf, while the upper-floors are selling for SG1,110psf on average. As of Jun 2012, 103 out of 201 units have been sold, implying a take-up rate of 51%. In terms of rentals, we find that based on the average 3-mth rental of SGD2.2 pm psf on Paya Lebar Road & Upper Paya Lebar Road, which translates to a rental yield of 2.8%.
Figure 6: Recently launched freehold titled projects Name Arcsphere @ Aljunied Atrix @ Aljunied Bizhub 28 @ Chai Chee Novelty Bizcentre Eldix M-Space AZ @ Paya Lebar M38 @ Jalan Pemimpin
Source: Colliers International
Developer Oxley Sims Pte Hafary Pte Pte Aston Inv Pte Novelty Dev Pte EL Development Lian Beng Ascendas Pte Mavern Pte
Zone B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B1 B1
Expected TOP 4Q15 4Q13 4Q13 4Q14 2014 2Q13 1Q14 2Q15
Avg. Unit Size 947-1,679 1,097-2,550 1,956 1,033-2,293 1,388-1,862 1,000-1,800 979-2,497 1,636-3,229
19 July 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Property Price Indices
Index SRPI Overall (Mar 12) URA PPI (1Q12) HDB Resale (1Q12) Level 165.4 206.0 191.0 Change +0.8% -0.1% +0.6% Reserve List
19 July 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Site Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Farrer Rd Kim Tian Road
Site area (Ha) 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.6 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.7
Units 240 1045 515 40 500 600 na 265 495 680 470 600 595
Status Available Available Available Available Available Available Available App accepted* Avail. in Sept Avail. in Oct Avail. in Oct Avail. in Nov Avail. in Dec
Prince Charles Crescent Sengkang West Way Tai Thong Crescent (Parcel C) Alexandra Road/ Alexandra View (Parcel B) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel C) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel D) Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel B) New Upper Changi Road / Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B)
Collective sales
Pending for offer
Site 1 Surin Avenue & Upper Serangoon Road (Singapore Crocodile Farm) Chancery Garden Kismis Lodge Land Area(k Sqm) 4.0 2.7 6.5 Land Price (S$m) 40 45 90-95 $psf ppr 934 1527 12811352 Land price (S$m) 77.5 132 106 74 Tender closes 15-Aug 23-Aug 15-Aug
Confirmed List
Site Tanah Merah Kechil Road/ Tanah Perah Kechil Link Bright Hill Drive Punggol Way/ Punggol Walk (EC) Dairy Farm Road Woodlands Avenue 6/ Woodlands Drive 16 (EC) New Upper Changi Road/ Bedok Road (Parcel A) Sengkang West Way/ Fernvale Link (Parcel B) (EC) Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Rise (EC) Bishan Street 14 Sembawang Crescent/ Sembawang Drive (EC) Punggol Field Walk/ Punggol East (EC) Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/ Ang Mo Kio Street 13 Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel A) Commonwealth Avenue Source: HDB, URA *last day of Tender Site area (Ha) 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.2 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 Est. Launch Units date 415 405 560 390 465 540 420 590 645 650 435 680 825 700 31-Jul* 7-Aug* Jul-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sept-12 Sept-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Successful en-blocs
Site Westvale Novena Ville Jade Towers Bartley Grove Awarded to Roxy Pacific Fragrance Group Roxy Pacific Top Global Land area(k sqm) 5.8 4.7 8.6 6.1 $psf ppr 883 1730 807 810
Property Stocks
Disc to Company Price RNAV RNAV CapitaLand 2.96 5.03 -41% City Dev 11.9 12.62 -6% Guocoland 1.7 NA NA Ho Bee 1.225 2.98 -59% Keppel land 3.48 5.78 -40% OUE 2.39 NA NA SC Global 0.975 3.71 -74% Singapore Land 5.97 9.71 -39% UIC 2.78 NA NA UOL 5.1 NA NA Wheelock 1.83 NA NA Wing Tai 1.38 2.81 -51% N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported NAV /share 3.66 7.66 2.15 2.34 3.81 3.53 1.56 11.78 3.16 6.49 2.35 2.51 Disc/ Prem to NAV -19% 55% -21% -48% -9% -32% -38% -49% -12% -21% -22% -45%
19 July 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 53% 99% 30% 18% 57% 56% 25% 92% 14% 94% 76% 74% 100% 68% 48% 67% 80% 84% 65% 71% 75% 82% 89% 43% 61% 48% 89% 98% 64% 95% 92% 82% 62% 100% 46% 92% 49% 81% 75% 35% 90% 74% 93%
Units sold (Jun)
19 July 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Apr12 1,437 1,817 1,279 978 1,055 805 887 899 768 $psf May12 1,547 1,931 1,396 1,286 1,234 873 1,142 877 944 MoM % change 7.7 6.3 9.2 31.5 17.0 8.5 28.8 -2.4 22.9
Median
($psf) 1,451 2,042 1,459 2,045 1,992 1,312 1,381 1,302 1,361 1,052 1,089 1,289 1,428 906 735 812 908 879 1163 906 903 910 746 835 820 1,274 1,204 742 1,086 1,243 1,267 871 869 761 1,142 702 1,218 485 1,313 706 813 836 869
City & Southwest (1-8) Seahill 454 241 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland (9-10) 1919 75 74 D'Leedon 1715 507 Stellar RV 120 21 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) 8 Bassein 74 42 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Tropika East 105 59 Eight Riversuites 862 219 Ness 62 57 M66 70 10 Vacanza @ East 473 444 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 437 Flamingo Valley 393 292 Shiro 16 16 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Sea Esta 376 255 Watercolours (EC) 416 201 Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 450 The Palette 892 714 Ripple Bay 679 568 My Manhattan 301 197 Palm Isles 429 306 Hedges Park Condo 501 377 Seastrand 473 388 Arc at Tampines (EC) 574 513 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) River Isles 610 263 Flo Residences 530 324 Bartley Residences 702 337 164 146 The Promenade @ Pelikat Twin Waterfalls The Luxurie Cardiff Residence
Vibes@ Upper Serangoon
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Apr12 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 $psf pm May12 4.7 4.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.5 MoM % change 2.8 -3.3 -3.9 5.8 -2.2 1.1 -8.5 3.9 -3.2
Parc Vera Riversound Residence West (22-24) The Rainforest (EC) Hillsta Blossom Residences (EC) Foresque Residences The Woods Natura@Hillview North (25-28) 1 Canberra (EC) Eight Courtyards The Nautical Miltonia Residences Source: URA
728 622 163 60 452 590 466 416 602 496 93 193 665 654 435 410
714 396 155 55 370 365 464 190 552 244 75 145 235 589 322 381
19 July 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 10 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
19 July 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 20 560 118 122 203 178 1 156 5 124 178 624 893 605 131 395 785 90 2 50 207 5,447
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Volari (Balmoral Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) Serangoon Garden Way (Serangoon Garden Way) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 15, 19 & 21 Swiss Road (Swiss Club Road) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 6 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19
52 620 276 307 234 94 226 1,809 309 39 14 5 1,208 55 150 68 384 140 2,372 110 357 6 473
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa 11
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units
UOL
2 16
Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 1D) (Bukit Batok Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23 23
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
19 July 2012
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19 July 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 381 76 30 989 58 49 24 88 221 80 232 68 820 249 101 19 595 85 123 103 49 14 65 1,403 9 64 38 42 157 27 252 156 745 32 70 65 23 111 590 891 35 203 22 35 50 31 376
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23 10
MCL Land
11 10 15 16 17 22
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Boon Lay (Jurong East) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) The Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units
16496
19 July 2012
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19 July 2012
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 19 July 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 19 July 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
19 July 2012
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