Beruflich Dokumente
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AGENDA
Exploration
Searching for Oil&Gas Plan/Develop/Monetize the find
Field Development Plan FDP
Development
Building Facilities Infrastructure Up to 1st Oil/Gas
Production
Operate & Maintain
MENTOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT SDN BHD 2011 2
Part 1
Review of previous lectures
Industry overview
The Oil&Gas Business Upstream VS Downstream Work Program & Budget
2011
TRADE
Buy/Sell Oil&Gas
2011
CASE STUDY
Planning for an Oil Co.
What challenges would this company face? How would they start to plan and develop their projects? How would they overcome these difficulties?
Decisions Decisions Decisions
requiring INTEGRATION across many different disciplines
2011
Location
2011
Development
Offshore Facilities
Ship sizes
Ports
MENTOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT SDN BHD 2011 8
2011
Project Framework
PROCESSES KNOWLEDGE AREAS
2011
10
MONITOR/RE-ASSESS
2011
11
2011
12
Short View
Million barrels per day
PRODUCTION Project 1 Shallow water Oilfield Project 2 Marginal Field Project 3 Deepsea Oilfield TOTAL PRODUCTION REVENUE
2010 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 13
EXECUTION
Production
Procurement Construction Installation
Resources
PLANNING
Legal & Regulatory Feasibility Studies Exploration Development Engineering
1st CONTROL
Monitoring
Oil
Start Revenue
INITIATION
Entrepreneurship Politics & Economics Funding
CLOSE-OUT
Hand-over to Production
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PROJECT REVENUE
Million barrels per day
Production
Revenue depends on estimate of Total Recoverable Reserves 800 Million bbls And the value of a barrel of oil! 1 Barrel = USD X ? Select Conservative median or most likely plan Based on USD70 per barrel of oil Benchmark Gold USD 30 per gram in 2009. NOTE:
As of 15-Oct-2010 Oil USD83 per barrel Gold USD 41 per gram variations to be continuously monitored
2050 2011 14
Million USD
Revenue
Total Revenue
0
Total Expense Cost CAPEX
2010 2020 2030
(+) (-)
2040
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
SSS
$$$
$$$
$$$
$$$
$$$
2011
15
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Best?
Real-world Complexity Cost $ Millions
Median!
Worst?
2011
16
2011
17
Part 2
Example: Current hot topic!
Marginal Oilfields Development
2011
18
MARGINAL OILFIELDS
Small scattered oilfields
economically viable when Oil price > USD75 per barrel
2011
19
Project environment
PETRONAS announces incentives for development of marginal oilfields Jan 2011
Outsource!
Resources Fast-track!
2011
20
2011
21
2011
23
2011
24
Decline in Supply
Oil Producing Countries Past Peak
Oil production in a given country tends to go into decline at about the halfway point because of falling pressure in the underground reservoirs, and because oil companies usually discover and exploit the largest oil fields first.
2011
25
2011
26
200
150
100
2014 USD125 bbl Hope of new prod & tech miracles 2007 USD50 bbl 2009 USD85 bbl Global recession drives price down 2011 - 2012 USD25 bbl Global recession destroys demand
50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 27
SAFETY
Major accidents Fukushima Nuclear Incident Japan March 11 2011 Offshore Deep-sea oil fields BP Gulf of Mexico 2010 Refinery BP Houston Refinery 2005 Tank Storage Farms Buncefield Airport, London 2004
2011
28
Aftermath of Fukushima
2011
29
2011
30
2011
31
2011
32
Management?
Every safety issue
Begins at Management/Board level
affect company business/profits impact community
2011
33
Ring of Fire
Disaster monitoring
MENTOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT SDN BHD 2011 34
Part 3 SUMMARIZING
Industry overview The Players Identify Business-entry points
2011
35
Time
2011
36
The Players
NOC NATIONAL Oil Co.s
PETRONAS Pertamina PTT (Thai) Petrobras (Brazil)
2011
37
Business value
Identify Business-entry points
CUSTOMER WORK PROGRAM & BUDGET Timeline/Horizon
IDENTIFY Data Management Packages Resource Data Knowledge/Experts Fast-track PM EDW Data Centers Mobile Control Systems Geological Data Manage 3D/VR FDP Simulation
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Current Opportunities:
Web Portal - ABC Engineering Data Warehouse/EDW - XYZ Marginal Oilfield Projects - Various Consortia
IDENTIFY Value Added Apps 1. Decision-support 2. Project Management 3. Logistics/Tracking 4. Facilities Management 5. HSE/Security 6. Web portal 7. Petroleum Exchange /Trading
2011
38
NEXT STEPS
Brainstorm & prioritize
Allocate Resources Analyze Competition/Risks Set Biz Targets
2011
39
Future Biz?
How to use Computing & Comms
Management Apps Research
Intelligence IQ, Emotional EQ! Spiritual SQ?
Digital Oilfields!
Remote manage Collaborative methods
2011
40