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US Treasury Futures Basis Report

George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)


Model

Market

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)


(Rich)/Cheap

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Delivery

Cheapest

Gross

Net

Implied

Invoice

Delivery

Deliv Date

Price

Current

Z-Score

Option

PV01

Duration

to Deliver

Yield

Basis

Basis

Repo

Spread

Prob

WNU2

09/28/12

170-160

(1.3)

1.2

1.1

289.9

17.01

4.375 02/15/38

2.495

21.2

(0.1)

0.24

(14.3)

50.0%

USU2

09/28/12

150-010

(0.7)

0.3

0.0

167.6

11.17

6.125 11/15/27

2.077

29.4

(0.7)

0.31

2.5

100.0%

TYU2

09/28/12

134-040

0.8

1.1

0.0

83.4

6.22

3.125 05/15/19

0.974

15.6

0.7

0.11

22.5

100.0%

FVU2

10/03/12

124-152

(0.1)

0.7

0.0

53.0

4.26

0.875 11/30/16

0.554

3.6

(0.1)

0.24

17.1

100.0%

TUU2

10/03/12

110-080

(0.4)

0.8

0.0

20.8

1.89

2.625 06/30/14

0.239

13.1

(0.4)

0.28

20.8

100.0%

WNZ2

12/31/12

169-010

(2.2)

1.8

0.9

289.8

17.15

4.375 02/15/38

2.495

53.4

(1.0)

0.28

(15.1)

50.0%

USZ2

12/31/12

151-020

(1.2)

(0.8)

0.0

179.8

11.91

5.500 08/15/28

2.127

68.1

(1.1)

0.28

(0.0)

99.9%

TYZ2

12/31/12

133-04+

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

85.2

6.40

3.625 08/15/19

1.011

44.9

(0.1)

0.23

23.6

100.0%

FVZ2

01/04/13

124-056

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

56.0

4.51

0.875 02/28/17

0.593

8.1

(0.8)

0.28

18.7

100.0%

TUZ2

01/04/13

110-080

(0.6)

0.8

0.0

23.7

2.15

2.375 09/30/14

0.244

29.0

(0.6)

0.27

22.7

100.0%

OTR Shift

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

60

80

100

WNU2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

USU2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TYU2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FVU2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TUU2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

WNZ2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

USZ2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TYZ2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FVZ2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TUZ2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

OTR Shift

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

60

80

100

WNU2

02/38

USU2

11/27

TYU2

05/19

FVU2

11/16

TUU2

06/14

WNZ2

02/38

USZ2

08/28

TYZ2

08/19

FVZ2

02/17

TUZ2

09/14

Current CTD Net Basis on Model Delivery Date

CTD on Model Delivery Date

Source: Nomura
See Disclosure Appendix A1 for the Analyst Certification and Other Important Disclosures

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

WNU2 First Delivery Date 09/04/2012 Last Trade Date 09/19/2012 Last Delivery Date 09/28/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

170-160

170-146

(1.3)

(2.2)

1.2

1.1

289.9

288.8

(18.4)

17.008

3.736

9.2

(0.1)

86.9

4.375 02/15/38

(0.1)

(14.3)

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

Model Delivery Date 09/28/2012 (63 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

4.375

02/15/38

135-113

2.495

0.7900

50.0%

134-221

2.517

170-157

289.8

(14.3)

21.2

(0.1)

0.9

0.22

0.24

0.996

7.894

7.901

4.500

05/15/38

138-001

2.493

0.8054

50.0%

137-102

2.515

170-160

290.2

(13.9)

21.9

0.0

1.1

0.22

0.21

0.995

8.059

8.053

3.500

02/15/39

118-107

2.545

0.6715

117-260

2.566

175-142

318.7

(18.0)

123.2

106.3

107.1

0.22

(16.57)

1.003

7.379

7.438

4.250

05/15/39

133-137

2.525

0.7692

132-252

2.547

172-202

304.3

(15.8)

73.1

52.5

53.4

0.22

(7.10)

0.995

8.071

8.066

4.500

08/15/39

138-186

2.523

0.8013

137-286

2.545

172-031

302.0

(15.2)

62.8

40.9

41.9

0.22

(5.30)

0.993

8.343

8.317

4.375

11/15/39

136-035

2.534

0.7841

135-143

2.555

172-237

306.5

(16.0)

77.5

56.3

57.3

0.22

(7.49)

0.994

8.285

8.268

4.625

02/15/40

141-106

2.532

0.8165

140-202

2.553

172-075

304.2

(15.5)

67.9

45.4

46.4

0.22

(5.79)

0.991

8.563

8.527

4.375

05/15/40

136-083

2.546

0.7825

135-192

2.568

173-092

310.9

(16.8)

91.1

69.9

70.9

0.22

(9.33)

0.993

8.389

8.363

3.875

08/15/40

125-306

2.570

0.7144

125-117

2.591

175-156

323.9

(18.8)

133.0

114.2

115.1

0.22

(16.73)

0.996

7.978

7.982

4.250

11/15/40

133-260

2.562

0.7641

133-053

2.584

174-090

317.9

(17.8)

113.0

92.4

93.4

0.22

(12.65)

0.992

8.376

8.349

4.750

02/15/41

144-127

2.551

0.8308

143-215

2.572

172-300

310.8

(16.4)

88.0

64.8

65.9

0.22

(8.17)

0.988

8.902

8.836

4.375

05/15/41

136-182

2.570

0.7794

135-290

2.591

174-120

319.8

(18.1)

117.8

96.6

97.6

0.22

(12.96)

0.991

8.595

8.551

3.750

08/15/41

123-13+

2.597

0.6935

122-273

2.617

177-047

336.2

(20.5)

165.8

147.6

148.5

0.22

(22.14)

0.995

8.040

8.034

3.125

11/15/41

110-040

2.627

0.6071

109-210

2.647

180-200

356.7

(23.3)

211.7

196.7

197.5

0.22

(33.07)

1.000

7.468

7.502

3.125

02/15/42

110-020

2.633

0.6058

109-190

2.653

180-290

359.2

(23.6)

216.8

201.7

202.5

0.22

(34.06)

1.000

7.502

7.537

3.000

05/15/42

107-120

2.641

0.5874

106-295

2.661

182-010

366.2

(24.3)

231.1

216.8

217.5

0.22

(37.41)

1.000

7.416

7.448

WI

08/15/42

98-120

2.691

185-156

(27.1)

253.9

251.6

0.22

(49.01)

1.003

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for WNU2 on Model Delivery Date (09/28/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

0.0

Cpn

Maturity

4.375

02/15/38

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.500

05/15/38

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

3.500

02/15/39

186.1

167.8

150.8

142.7

134.9

127.4

120.1

113.1

106.4

99.8

93.5

87.4

81.6

75.9

70.5

60.1

50.5

4.250

05/15/39

94.9

85.0

75.9

71.6

67.5

63.5

59.7

56.1

52.6

49.2

46.0

42.9

39.9

37.1

34.3

29.2

24.5

4.500

08/15/39

76.3

68.0

60.3

56.7

53.3

50.0

46.9

43.9

41.0

38.3

35.7

33.2

30.8

28.6

26.4

22.4

18.7

4.375

11/15/39

105.5

93.9

83.3

78.4

73.6

69.0

64.6

60.4

56.4

52.6

48.9

45.4

42.0

38.8

35.8

30.0

24.8

4.625

02/15/40

88.0

77.8

68.6

64.3

60.2

56.2

52.5

48.9

45.5

42.3

39.2

36.2

33.4

30.8

28.2

23.6

19.3

4.375

05/15/40

132.0

117.4

104.0

97.7

91.6

85.9

80.3

75.1

70.0

65.2

60.5

56.1

51.9

47.8

44.0

36.8

30.2

3.875

08/15/40

209.2

187.1

166.6

157.0

147.8

138.9

130.3

122.1

114.3

106.7

99.5

92.5

85.8

79.4

73.3

61.7

51.1

4.250

11/15/40

173.8

154.7

137.1

128.9

121.0

113.4

106.1

99.2

92.5

86.2

80.1

74.2

68.7

63.3

58.2

48.7

40.0

4.750

02/15/41

127.2

112.3

98.7

92.4

86.4

80.6

75.1

69.9

64.9

60.2

55.7

51.4

47.3

43.5

39.8

33.0

26.9

4.375

05/15/41

184.3

163.6

144.6

135.7

127.2

119.1

111.3

103.9

96.7

89.9

83.4

77.2

71.3

65.6

60.2

50.1

41.0

3.750

08/15/41

272.8

243.6

216.6

203.9

191.7

180.0

168.8

158.0

147.7

137.8

128.3

119.2

110.4

102.1

94.1

79.0

65.2

3.125

11/15/41

358.3

320.7

286.0

269.6

253.9

238.8

224.2

210.2

196.8

183.9

171.5

159.6

148.1

137.1

126.6

106.7

88.5

3.125

02/15/42

369.1

330.2

294.2

277.2

260.9

245.2

230.2

215.7

201.8

188.5

175.6

163.3

151.5

140.2

129.3

108.8

90.0

3.000

05/15/42

394.9

353.4

315.1

297.1

279.7

263.1

247.0

231.6

216.8

202.6

189.0

175.9

163.3

151.2

139.7

117.9

97.8

WI

08/15/42

458.7

411.2

367.2

346.4

326.5

307.2

288.8

271.0

254.0

237.5

221.8

206.6

192.1

178.1

164.6

139.4

116.0

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for WNU2 on Model Delivery Date (09/28/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

02/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

10

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

USU2 First Delivery Date 09/04/2012 Last Trade Date 09/19/2012 Last Delivery Date 09/28/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

150-010

150-002

(0.7)

(0.9)

0.3

0.0

167.6

164.1

10.4

11.175

1.546

8.1

(0.0)

86.9

6.125 11/15/27

(0.7)

2.5

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Model
Basis

Repo

100.0%

Model Delivery Date 09/28/2012 (63 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

6.125

11/15/27

152-25+

2.077

1.0123

151-273

2.105

150-002

167.6

2.4

29.4

(0.7)

0.0

5.500

08/15/28

145-203

2.127

0.9494

144-253

2.154

152-162

179.8

0.8

102.4

75.3

76.0

5.250

11/15/28

142-131

2.150

0.9235

141-193

2.177

153-106

184.3

(0.4)

123.4

97.7

5.250

02/15/29

142-252

2.160

0.9227

141-31+

2.187

153-281

187.0

(0.4)

139.4

6.125

08/15/29

156-102

2.158

1.0130

155-121

2.185

153-122

185.6

1.5

6.250

05/15/30

159-233

2.181

1.0269

158-245

2.208

154-19+

192.4

1.6

5.375

02/15/31

147-201

2.226

0.9311

146-256

2.251

157-213

207.5

4.500

02/15/36

136-287

2.432

0.8132

136-067

2.455

167-162

4.750

02/15/37

142-057

2.452

0.8413

141-145

2.475

5.000

05/15/37

147-03+

2.452

0.8725

146-112

2.475

Source: Nomura

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

0.22

0.31

0.967

10.119

10.119

0.22

(9.44)

0.982

10.179

10.330

98.3

0.22

(12.55)

0.986

10.148

10.337

113.6

114.2

0.22

(14.65)

0.988

10.290

10.506

138.9

108.7

109.4

0.22

(12.77)

0.980

11.213

11.361

181.2

150.5

151.2

0.22

(17.30)

0.982

11.782

11.962

(0.5)

253.9

227.5

228.2

0.22

(28.58)

0.993

11.521

11.829

268.5

(10.8)

476.7

454.8

455.3

0.22

(61.88)

0.999

13.019

13.434

168-04+

274.3

(11.4)

510.8

487.6

488.2

0.22

(63.89)

0.995

13.763

14.152

167-235

272.9

(11.1)

518.7

494.3

494.9

0.22

(62.35)

0.992

14.200

14.562

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for USU2 on Model Delivery Date (09/28/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

6.125

11/15/27

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.500

08/15/28

125.0

114.2

104.0

99.0

94.2

89.5

84.9

80.4

76.0

71.7

67.5

63.4

59.4

55.5

51.7

44.4

37.5

5.250

11/15/28

162.9

148.7

135.2

128.7

122.3

116.1

110.1

104.1

98.3

92.7

87.2

81.8

76.6

71.5

66.5

56.9

47.7

5.250

02/15/29

189.3

172.8

157.0

149.5

142.1

134.9

127.8

120.9

114.2

107.7

101.3

95.1

89.0

83.1

77.3

66.2

55.6

6.125

08/15/29

182.4

166.3

150.9

143.5

136.3

129.3

122.5

115.9

109.4

103.1

97.0

91.0

85.2

79.5

74.0

63.5

53.5

6.250

05/15/30

251.9

229.5

208.3

198.2

188.3

178.6

169.2

160.1

151.2

142.6

134.1

126.0

118.0

110.3

102.8

88.3

74.7

5.375

02/15/31

377.6

344.4

313.0

297.9

283.2

268.9

254.9

241.4

228.2

215.3

202.8

190.6

178.8

167.3

156.0

134.5

114.2

4.500

02/15/36

776.2

704.0

636.1

603.6

572.1

541.6

511.9

483.2

455.3

428.3

402.1

376.7

352.1

328.3

305.2

261.1

219.8

4.750

02/15/37

837.0

758.3

684.3

649.0

614.8

581.6

549.5

518.3

488.2

458.9

430.6

403.2

376.6

350.9

326.0

278.6

234.2

5.000

05/15/37

850.2

770.0

694.6

658.6

623.8

590.0

557.3

525.6

494.9

465.2

436.4

408.6

381.6

355.5

330.2

282.0

237.0

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for USU2 on Model Delivery Date (09/28/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

11/27

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

TYU2 First Delivery Date 09/04/2012 Last Trade Date 09/19/2012 Last Delivery Date 09/28/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

134-040

134-046

0.8

0.5

1.1

0.0

83.4

63.7

20.9

6.220

0.438

7.2

(0.0)

75.3

3.125 05/15/19

0.7

22.5

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge
7.891

Model Delivery Date 09/28/2012 (63 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

1.500

03/31/19

103-093

0.989

0.7607

103-025

1.009

135-163

86.2

19.1

40.4

33.7

33.1

0.22

(5.88)

0.787

7.856

1.250

04/30/19

101-202

0.999

0.7474

101-147

1.019

135-242

88.0

19.5

44.4

39.1

38.5

0.22

(6.97)

0.797

7.877

8.020

3.125

05/15/19

114-033

0.974

0.8471

113-203

0.994

134-046

83.4

22.8

15.6

0.7

0.0

0.22

0.11

0.783

8.468

8.468

1.125

05/31/19

100-223

1.019

0.7408

100-175

1.039

135-23+

89.3

19.1

42.9

38.1

37.6

0.22

(6.87)

0.807

7.925

8.162

1.000

06/30/19

99-24+

1.035

0.7258

99-20+

1.055

137-090

91.7

19.0

77.4

73.3

72.7

0.22

(13.55)

0.816

7.971

8.305

WI

07/31/19

99-167

1.072

137-046

18.7

69.6

69.5

0.22

(12.88)

0.823

3.625

08/15/19

117-232

1.011

0.8697

117-055

1.032

134-23+

85.6

23.5

34.5

16.9

16.2

0.22

(2.47)

0.801

8.917

9.114

100.0%
-

WI

08/31/19

99-181

1.093

136-305

18.0

65.0

65.1

0.22

(12.01)

0.831

3.375

11/15/19

116-070

1.058

0.8517

115-226

1.080

135-27+

89.5

23.2

63.5

47.3

46.6

0.22

(7.36)

0.823

9.136

9.603

3.625

02/15/20

118-065

1.103

0.8620

117-210

1.125

136-156

92.1

23.1

82.9

65.3

64.7

0.22

(10.12)

0.845

9.514

10.264

3.500

05/15/20

117-141

1.153

0.8508

116-292

1.176

137-133

95.7

21.8

106.5

89.6

88.9

0.22

(14.00)

0.862

9.759

10.736

2.625

08/15/20

110-237

1.218

0.7932

110-11+

1.241

139-041

102.0

19.3

139.5

127.0

126.4

0.22

(21.24)

0.890

9.695

11.020

2.625

11/15/20

110-217

1.264

0.7880

110-09+

1.287

139-311

105.5

18.5

159.8

147.4

146.8

0.22

(24.64)

0.901

9.959

11.457

3.625

02/15/21

118-263

1.291

0.8472

118-087

1.315

139-19+

105.1

19.4

166.2

148.6

148.0

0.22

(23.17)

0.908

10.662

12.360

3.125

05/15/21

114-201

1.355

0.8107

114-051

1.379

140-261

110.2

16.3

188.6

173.6

173.0

0.22

(28.02)

0.928

10.699

12.680

2.125

08/15/21

105-316

1.417

0.7391

105-217

1.441

142-316

118.3

13.5

219.6

209.7

209.1

0.22

(36.81)

0.953

10.473

12.737

2.000

11/15/21

104-197

1.466

0.7249

104-105

1.491

143-295

122.5

11.9

236.6

227.4

226.8

0.22

(40.37)

0.970

10.641

13.173

2.000

02/15/22

104-112

1.508

0.7191

104-021

1.533

144-227

126.2

10.9

252.9

243.7

243.1

0.22

(43.49)

0.986

10.870

13.687

1.750

05/15/22

101-24+

1.555

0.6956

101-165

1.579

145-301

131.5

9.3

271.0

263.1

262.5

0.22

(48.08)

1.000

10.954

13.982

WI

08/15/22

99-086

1.628

147-055

7.4

281.0

280.4

0.22

(52.91)

1.012

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for TYU2 on Model Delivery Date (09/28/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

1.500

03/31/19

39.2

38.0

36.8

36.1

35.5

34.9

34.3

33.7

33.1

32.5

32.0

31.4

30.8

30.2

29.6

28.5

27.4

1.250

04/30/19

50.3

47.9

45.5

44.3

43.1

42.0

40.8

39.6

38.5

37.4

36.2

35.1

34.0

32.9

31.8

29.7

27.5

3.125

05/15/19

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.125

05/31/19

53.9

50.5

47.2

45.6

43.9

42.3

40.7

39.1

37.6

36.0

34.4

32.9

31.4

29.9

28.4

25.4

22.5

1.000

06/30/19

95.5

90.8

86.1

83.8

81.6

79.3

77.1

74.9

72.7

70.6

68.4

66.3

64.2

62.1

60.0

55.9

51.9

WI

07/31/19

95.2

89.8

84.5

81.8

79.2

76.7

74.1

71.6

69.1

66.6

64.1

61.7

59.3

56.9

54.5

49.8

45.2

3.625

08/15/19

25.4

23.5

21.6

20.7

19.8

18.9

18.0

17.1

16.2

15.4

14.5

13.7

12.8

12.0

11.2

9.6

8.1

WI

08/31/19

94.3

88.1

82.0

79.0

76.1

73.1

70.2

67.3

64.5

61.6

58.8

56.0

53.3

50.6

47.9

42.5

37.3

3.375

11/15/19

70.3

65.4

60.5

58.1

55.8

53.4

51.1

48.8

46.6

44.4

42.1

40.0

37.8

35.6

33.5

29.4

25.3

3.625

02/15/20

100.6

93.1

85.8

82.1

78.6

75.0

71.5

68.1

64.7

61.3

57.9

54.6

51.4

48.1

45.0

38.7

32.6

3.500

05/15/20

137.8

127.6

117.6

112.7

107.8

103.0

98.3

93.6

88.9

84.4

79.8

75.4

70.9

66.6

62.2

53.8

45.5

2.625

08/15/20

194.2

180.0

166.1

159.3

152.6

145.9

139.3

132.8

126.4

120.1

113.8

107.6

101.4

95.4

89.4

77.6

66.1

2.625

11/15/20

225.5

209.0

192.9

185.0

177.2

169.4

161.8

154.3

146.8

139.5

132.2

125.0

117.9

110.9

104.0

90.4

77.1

3.625

02/15/21

233.6

215.6

198.1

189.5

181.0

172.6

164.3

156.1

148.0

140.0

132.1

124.3

116.6

109.0

101.5

86.8

72.4

3.125

05/15/21

273.9

252.7

232.0

221.8

211.8

201.9

192.2

182.5

173.0

163.6

154.3

145.1

136.1

127.1

118.3

101.0

84.2

2.125

08/15/21

327.3

302.4

278.2

266.3

254.6

243.0

231.5

220.2

209.1

198.1

187.2

176.5

165.9

155.5

145.2

125.0

105.3

2.000

11/15/21

358.0

330.4

303.4

290.2

277.2

264.4

251.7

239.1

226.8

214.6

202.6

190.7

179.0

167.4

156.0

133.7

112.0

2.000

02/15/22

387.3

356.9

327.3

312.8

298.5

284.3

270.4

256.7

243.1

229.8

216.6

203.6

190.7

178.1

165.6

141.2

117.4

1.750

05/15/22

418.8

385.8

353.6

337.9

322.4

307.1

292.0

277.2

262.5

248.0

233.8

219.7

205.9

192.2

178.7

152.3

126.7

WI

08/15/22

448.2

412.7

378.2

361.3

344.7

328.3

312.1

296.2

280.5

265.0

249.7

234.7

219.8

205.2

190.8

162.6

135.2

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for TYU2 on Model Delivery Date (09/28/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

05/19

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

FVU2 First Delivery Date 09/04/2012 Last Trade Date 09/28/2012 Last Delivery Date 10/03/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

124-152

124-151

(0.1)

(0.6)

0.7

0.0

53.0

44.7

22.9

4.260

0.204

6.0

(0.0)

49.9

0.875 11/30/16

(0.1)

17.1

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Model
Basis

Repo

100.0%

Model Delivery Date 10/03/2012 (68 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

0.875

11/30/16

101-120

0.554

0.8135

101-082

0.568

124-151

53.0

17.0

3.6

(0.1)

0.0

0.875

12/31/16

101-092

0.579

0.8102

101-055

0.594

124-280

54.2

16.3

14.0

10.3

10.5

0.875

01/31/17

101-081

0.592

0.8069

101-04+

0.608

125-110

55.4

16.5

26.1

22.4

0.875

02/28/17

101-086

0.593

0.8037

101-051

0.608

125-276

56.6

18.0

39.5

1.000

03/31/17

101-23+

0.622

0.8053

101-191

0.638

126-052

57.6

16.9

0.875

04/30/17

101-045

0.630

0.7973

101-010

0.646

126-227

59.0

17.4

0.625

05/31/17

99-302

0.637

0.7840

99-280

0.653

127-12+

60.7

0.750

06/30/17

100-152

0.651

0.7858

100-122

0.668

127-237

WI

07/31/17

99-183

0.684

128-100

WI

08/31/17

99-20+

0.699

WI

09/30/17

99-222

0.716

Source: Nomura

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

0.22

0.24

0.860

8.132

8.132

0.22

(1.55)

0.886

8.275

8.522

22.5

0.22

(3.61)

0.904

8.426

8.852

35.8

35.9

0.22

(5.88)

0.920

8.583

9.183

47.8

43.5

43.6

0.22

(7.15)

0.940

8.751

9.563

60.8

57.1

57.2

0.22

(9.53)

0.962

8.874

9.921

18.6

75.4

73.1

73.2

0.22

(12.42)

0.983

8.965

10.241

61.7

18.9

85.2

82.2

82.4

0.22

(13.94)

1.000

9.139

10.625

18.7

96.2

95.3

0.22

(16.56)

1.020

128-235

18.9

105.5

105.6

0.22

(18.07)

1.039

129-052

19.1

115.4

115.7

0.22

(19.79)

1.058

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for FVU2 on Model Delivery Date (10/03/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

0.0

Cpn

Maturity

0.875

11/30/16

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.875

12/31/16

16.7

15.5

14.2

13.5

12.9

12.3

11.7

11.1

10.5

9.9

9.3

8.7

8.1

7.5

6.9

5.8

4.6

0.875

01/31/17

34.2

31.8

29.4

28.2

27.1

25.9

24.8

23.6

22.5

21.4

20.3

19.2

18.1

17.0

15.9

13.8

11.7

0.875

02/28/17

52.9

49.4

45.9

44.2

42.5

40.8

39.2

37.5

35.9

34.2

32.6

31.0

29.4

27.8

26.3

23.2

20.1

1.000

03/31/17

66.0

61.4

56.8

54.6

52.3

50.1

47.9

45.7

43.6

41.4

39.3

37.2

35.1

33.0

30.9

26.9

22.9

0.875

04/30/17

86.3

80.3

74.4

71.4

68.6

65.7

62.8

60.0

57.2

54.5

51.7

49.0

46.3

43.6

40.9

35.7

30.5

0.625

05/31/17

109.0

101.6

94.3

90.7

87.2

83.6

80.1

76.6

73.2

69.8

66.4

63.0

59.7

56.4

53.1

46.7

40.3

0.750

06/30/17

123.7

115.1

106.7

102.6

98.5

94.4

90.3

86.3

82.4

78.4

74.5

70.6

66.8

63.0

59.2

51.8

44.5

WI

07/31/17

144.4

134.4

124.6

119.8

115.0

110.3

105.6

100.9

96.3

91.7

87.2

82.7

78.2

73.8

69.4

60.7

52.2

WI

08/31/17

159.5

148.3

137.4

131.9

126.6

121.3

116.0

110.8

105.6

100.5

95.4

90.3

85.3

80.4

75.5

65.8

56.3

WI

09/30/17

175.7

163.3

151.0

144.9

138.9

133.0

127.1

121.3

115.5

109.8

104.1

98.5

92.9

87.4

81.9

71.1

60.5

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for FVU2 on Model Delivery Date (10/03/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

11/16

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

TUU2 First Delivery Date 09/04/2012 Last Trade Date 09/28/2012 Last Delivery Date 10/03/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

110-080

110-075

(0.4)

(1.0)

0.8

0.0

20.8

20.7

16.5

1.891

0.045

6.4

(0.0)

30.3

2.625 06/30/14

(0.4)

20.8

Yield

Conv
Factor

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

Model Delivery Date 10/03/2012 (68 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

0.750

06/15/14

100-295

0.255

0.9140

2.625

06/30/14

104-180

0.239

0.9447

0.250

06/30/14

99-317

0.252

0.9058

0.625

07/15/14

100-226

0.261

0.9080

2.625

07/31/14

104-213

0.285

WI

07/31/14

0.500

08/15/14

100-155

2.375

08/31/14

WI

08/31/14

0.250

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Implied
Beta

100-265

0.258

110-102

20.6

17.8

5.1

2.1

2.4

0.22

(0.14)

0.965

9.031

8.801

104-04+

0.241

110-075

20.8

20.2

13.1

(0.4)

0.0

0.22

0.28

0.990

9.443

9.443

99-316

0.255

110-12+

21.1

18.8

4.2

4.1

4.4

0.22

(0.49)

1.000

9.175

9.266

100-20+

0.265

110-266

21.6

17.7

19.3

17.0

17.4

0.22

(2.71)

1.036

9.411

9.842

0.9422

104-077

0.291

110-205

21.8

15.0

25.4

11.8

12.2

0.22

(1.74)

1.066

9.853

10.611

99-29+

0.263

110-285

17.8

18.9

18.9

0.22

(3.06)

1.077

0.260

0.9018

100-141

0.263

111-121

22.7

17.9

34.1

32.5

32.9

0.22

(5.38)

1.116

9.803

11.044

104-120

0.271

0.9353

103-317

0.275

111-060

22.9

17.0

40.3

28.1

28.5

0.22

(4.42)

1.157

10.250

11.977

99-292

0.272

111-127

17.3

33.1

33.4

0.22

(5.53)

1.168

09/15/14

99-306

0.268

0.8931

99-305

0.272

111-29+

23.7

17.9

47.9

47.8

48.1

0.22

(8.05)

1.200

10.169

12.325

2.375

09/30/14

104-193

0.244

0.9326

104-072

0.246

111-242

23.9

21.2

57.2

45.0

45.4

0.22

(7.18)

1.227

10.671

13.222

WI

09/30/14

99-296

0.279

111-287

17.9

47.5

47.6

0.22

(8.02)

1.240

Source: Nomura

Fwd
Price

100.0%

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for TUU2 on Model Delivery Date (10/03/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

0.750

06/15/14

0.3

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

4.1

4.5

2.625

06/30/14

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.250

06/30/14

5.8

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.0

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.1

0.625

07/15/14

22.3

21.3

20.3

19.8

19.3

18.9

18.4

17.9

17.4

16.9

16.4

16.0

15.5

15.0

14.6

13.6

12.7

2.625

07/31/14

19.8

18.2

16.7

16.0

15.2

14.4

13.7

13.0

12.2

11.5

10.7

10.0

9.3

8.5

7.8

6.4

5.0

WI

07/31/14

28.3

26.4

24.6

23.7

22.8

21.9

21.0

20.1

19.2

18.4

17.5

16.6

15.8

14.9

14.0

12.3

10.6

0.500

08/15/14

45.8

43.2

40.6

39.3

38.0

36.7

35.4

34.2

32.9

31.6

30.4

29.1

27.9

26.6

25.4

22.9

20.5

2.375

08/31/14

45.1

41.7

38.4

36.7

35.0

33.4

31.7

30.1

28.5

26.8

25.2

23.6

22.0

20.4

18.8

15.7

12.6

WI

08/31/14

51.3

47.7

44.1

42.3

40.5

38.7

37.0

35.2

33.5

31.7

30.0

28.3

26.6

24.8

23.2

19.8

16.4

0.250

09/15/14

69.8

65.4

61.0

58.8

56.7

54.5

52.4

50.2

48.1

46.0

43.9

41.8

39.7

37.7

35.6

31.5

27.4

2.375

09/30/14

70.2

65.2

60.2

57.7

55.2

52.7

50.3

47.8

45.4

43.0

40.6

38.2

35.8

33.4

31.1

26.4

21.8

WI

09/30/14

73.7

68.4

63.2

60.6

58.0

55.5

52.9

50.4

47.8

45.3

42.8

40.3

37.8

35.3

32.9

28.0

23.2

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for TUU2 on Model Delivery Date (10/03/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

06/14

06/14

06/14

06/14

06/14

06/14

(9)

06/14

06/14

06/14

06/14

06/14

(8)

06/14

06/14

06/14

06/14

(7)

06/14

06/14

06/14

(6)

06/14

06/14

06/14

(5)

06/14

06/14

(4)

06/14

(3)

(2)

(1)

06/14

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

WNZ2 First Delivery Date 12/03/2012 Last Trade Date 12/19/2012 Last Delivery Date 12/31/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

169-010

168-307

(2.2)

(4.7)

1.8

0.9

289.8

288.7

(18.4)

17.152

3.736

23.4

(0.2)

87.5

4.375 02/15/38

(1.0)

(15.1)

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

Model Delivery Date 12/31/2012 (157 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

4.375

02/15/38

135-113

2.495

0.7909

50.0%

133-210

2.552

168-316

289.7

(15.2)

53.4

(1.0)

0.7

0.23

0.28

0.996

7.897

7.904

4.500

05/15/38

138-001

2.493

0.8061

50.0%

136-077

2.551

169-005

290.1

(14.9)

56.0

(0.3)

1.4

0.23

0.24

0.995

8.063

8.056

3.500

02/15/39

118-107

2.545

0.6729

116-315

2.600

173-27+

318.2

(18.8)

147.2

103.9

105.4

0.23

(6.19)

1.003

7.382

7.441

4.250

05/15/39

133-137

2.525

0.7700

131-246

2.581

171-043

304.2

(16.8)

104.9

51.8

53.5

0.23

(2.61)

0.995

8.075

8.070

4.500

08/15/39

138-186

2.523

0.8022

136-266

2.579

170-183

301.8

(16.2)

95.6

39.6

41.3

0.23

(1.86)

0.993

8.346

8.321

4.375

11/15/39

136-035

2.534

0.7848

134-130

2.590

171-082

306.4

(17.0)

110.6

56.0

57.6

0.23

(2.77)

0.994

8.289

8.272

4.625

02/15/40

141-106

2.532

0.8173

139-171

2.587

170-232

304.1

(16.5)

102.0

44.4

46.1

0.23

(2.07)

0.991

8.567

8.531

4.375

05/15/40

136-083

2.546

0.7832

134-176

2.602

171-255

310.8

(17.8)

124.1

69.4

71.1

0.23

(3.49)

0.993

8.393

8.367

3.875

08/15/40

125-306

2.570

0.7155

124-146

2.625

173-302

323.6

(19.7)

160.6

112.5

114.1

0.23

(6.30)

0.996

7.982

7.986

4.250

11/15/40

133-260

2.562

0.7648

132-047

2.618

172-25+

317.8

(18.8)

145.2

92.1

93.7

0.23

(4.79)

0.992

8.379

8.352

4.750

02/15/41

144-127

2.551

0.8315

142-175

2.606

171-140

310.7

(17.4)

123.2

64.0

65.8

0.23

(3.01)

0.988

8.905

8.840

4.375

05/15/41

136-182

2.570

0.7801

134-275

2.625

172-281

319.7

(19.1)

150.7

96.1

97.7

0.23

(4.90)

0.991

8.598

8.555

3.750

08/15/41

123-13+

2.597

0.6946

121-311

2.650

175-191

335.9

(21.4)

192.4

146.0

147.5

0.23

(8.41)

0.995

8.043

8.038

3.125

11/15/41

110-040

2.627

0.6083

108-293

2.679

179-016

356.2

(24.1)

233.7

195.1

196.4

0.23

(12.70)

1.000

7.471

7.505

3.125

02/15/42

110-020

2.633

0.6071

108-27+

2.684

179-100

358.6

(24.4)

238.2

199.7

201.0

0.23

(13.03)

1.000

7.505

7.540

3.000

05/15/42

107-120

2.641

0.5887

106-070

2.692

180-135

365.6

(25.1)

251.7

214.7

215.9

0.23

(14.36)

1.000

7.419

7.451

WI

08/15/42

98-015

2.715

183-237

(27.2)

243.4

248.3

0.23

(17.70)

1.003

WI

11/15/42

98-140

2.721

185-013

(27.6)

247.3

255.3

0.23

(17.98)

1.003

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for WNZ2 on Model Delivery Date (12/31/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

0.0

Cpn

Maturity

4.375

02/15/38

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.500

05/15/38

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

3.500

02/15/39

183.3

165.3

148.6

140.6

132.9

125.5

118.4

111.5

104.8

98.3

92.1

86.1

80.3

74.7

69.4

59.1

49.6

4.250

05/15/39

94.8

85.0

76.0

71.7

67.6

63.7

59.9

56.3

52.8

49.5

46.3

43.2

40.2

37.4

34.7

29.6

24.9

4.500

08/15/39

75.6

67.3

59.8

56.2

52.8

49.6

46.4

43.5

40.6

37.9

35.3

32.8

30.5

28.2

26.1

22.1

18.4

4.375

11/15/39

105.7

94.2

83.7

78.8

74.0

69.5

65.1

60.9

57.0

53.1

49.5

46.0

42.6

39.4

36.3

30.6

25.4

4.625

02/15/40

87.6

77.6

68.4

64.1

60.0

56.1

52.4

48.8

45.4

42.2

39.1

36.2

33.4

30.7

28.2

23.5

19.3

4.375

05/15/40

132.0

117.5

104.2

98.0

92.0

86.2

80.7

75.5

70.4

65.6

61.0

56.6

52.4

48.4

44.5

37.3

30.8

3.875

08/15/40

207.4

185.5

165.3

155.8

146.6

137.8

129.4

121.3

113.5

106.0

98.8

91.9

85.2

78.9

72.8

61.3

50.8

4.250

11/15/40

173.7

154.8

137.4

129.2

121.3

113.8

106.6

99.7

93.1

86.8

80.7

74.9

69.3

64.0

58.9

49.4

40.7

4.750

02/15/41

127.1

112.3

98.8

92.5

86.5

80.7

75.3

70.1

65.1

60.4

55.9

51.6

47.5

43.7

40.0

33.2

27.1

4.375

05/15/41

184.0

163.5

144.6

135.8

127.4

119.3

111.5

104.1

97.0

90.3

83.8

77.6

71.7

66.1

60.7

50.6

41.5

3.750

08/15/41

270.7

241.8

215.1

202.5

190.5

178.9

167.8

157.1

146.9

137.0

127.6

118.6

109.9

101.6

93.6

78.7

65.0

3.125

11/15/41

355.6

318.5

284.2

268.0

252.4

237.4

223.0

209.2

195.9

183.1

170.8

159.0

147.6

136.7

126.3

106.6

88.4

3.125

02/15/42

366.0

327.5

291.9

275.2

259.0

243.5

228.6

214.3

200.5

187.3

174.6

162.4

150.7

139.4

128.6

108.3

89.6

3.000

05/15/42

391.4

350.5

312.7

294.8

277.7

261.2

245.3

230.1

215.4

201.4

187.8

174.9

162.4

150.4

138.9

117.3

97.4

WI

08/15/42

442.0

396.1

353.5

333.5

314.2

295.6

277.8

260.6

244.1

228.2

213.0

198.3

184.3

170.7

157.8

133.3

110.8

WI

11/15/42

450.5

403.4

359.9

339.3

319.6

300.6

282.4

264.8

248.0

231.8

216.2

201.3

186.9

173.1

159.9

135.0

112.0

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for WNZ2 on Model Delivery Date (12/31/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

02/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

10

05/38

05/38

05/38

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

USZ2 First Delivery Date 12/03/2012 Last Trade Date 12/19/2012 Last Delivery Date 12/31/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

151-020

151-007

(1.2)

(0.5)

(0.8)

0.0

179.8

178.4

8.3

11.905

1.730

21.0

(0.0)

87.5

5.500 08/15/28

(1.1)

(0.0)

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

99.9%

Model Delivery Date 12/31/2012 (157 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

5.500

08/15/28

145-203

2.127

0.9500

143-152

2.197

151-007

179.8

(0.2)

68.1

(1.1)

0.0

5.250

11/15/28

142-131

2.150

0.9242

140-107

2.220

151-272

184.2

(1.5)

89.6

23.3

24.4

5.250

02/15/29

142-252

2.160

0.9235

140-232

2.229

152-123

187.0

(1.4)

105.1

39.1

6.125

08/15/29

156-102

2.158

1.0130

153-290

2.227

151-297

185.7

0.5

105.5

28.2

6.250

05/15/30

159-233

2.181

1.0265

157-082

2.250

153-062

192.6

0.5

149.2

5.375

02/15/31

147-201

2.226

0.9318

145-165

2.292

156-05+

207.5

(1.5)

219.8

4.500

02/15/36

136-287

2.432

0.8142

135-046

2.491

165-316

268.3

(11.7)

445.0

4.750

02/15/37

142-057

2.452

0.8421

140-105

2.511

166-205

274.2

(12.4)

5.000

05/15/37

147-03+

2.452

0.8730

145-047

2.512

166-08+

272.9

(12.2)

Source: Nomura

0.1%

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

0.23

0.28

0.982

9.491

9.491

0.23

(0.97)

0.986

9.461

9.497

40.2

0.23

(1.77)

0.988

9.594

9.652

29.4

0.23

(1.09)

0.980

10.455

10.438

70.1

71.3

0.23

(2.97)

0.982

10.985

10.990

152.3

153.4

0.23

(7.31)

0.993

10.742

10.868

388.9

389.9

0.23

(20.52)

0.999

12.138

12.342

479.1

419.9

420.8

0.23

(21.34)

0.995

12.832

13.002

487.5

424.8

425.7

0.23

(20.83)

0.992

13.240

13.379

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for USZ2 on Model Delivery Date (12/31/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

5.500

08/15/28

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.250

11/15/28

40.9

37.3

33.8

32.2

30.5

28.9

27.4

25.9

24.4

22.9

21.5

20.1

18.8

17.5

16.2

13.8

11.4

5.250

02/15/29

67.2

61.2

55.6

52.8

50.2

47.6

45.0

42.6

40.2

37.8

35.5

33.3

31.1

29.0

26.9

23.0

19.2

6.125

08/15/29

50.3

45.6

41.1

39.0

36.9

34.9

33.0

31.2

29.4

27.6

25.9

24.3

22.7

21.2

19.7

16.9

14.3

6.250

05/15/30

119.0

108.3

98.2

93.4

88.7

84.1

79.7

75.4

71.3

67.3

63.3

59.6

55.9

52.4

48.9

42.4

36.2

5.375

02/15/31

253.7

231.4

210.2

200.1

190.2

180.6

171.3

162.2

153.4

144.8

136.4

128.3

120.5

112.8

105.4

91.1

77.7

4.500

02/15/36

666.1

603.8

545.3

517.3

490.2

463.9

438.5

413.8

389.9

366.7

344.3

322.5

301.5

281.1

261.4

223.8

188.5

4.750

02/15/37

723.4

655.0

590.7

560.1

530.4

501.7

473.8

446.9

420.8

395.6

371.1

347.5

324.6

302.4

281.0

240.3

202.2

5.000

05/15/37

733.2

663.6

598.3

567.1

537.0

507.8

479.6

452.2

425.8

400.1

375.4

351.4

328.2

305.8

284.1

242.8

204.3

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for USZ2 on Model Delivery Date (12/31/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

08/28

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

TYZ2 First Delivery Date 12/03/2012 Last Trade Date 12/19/2012 Last Delivery Date 12/31/2012
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

133-04+

133-043

(0.1)

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

85.2

66.6

21.3

6.403

0.463

18.4

(0.0)

77.5

3.625 08/15/19

(0.1)

23.6

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge
7.954

Model Delivery Date 12/31/2012 (157 Days)


Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

1.000

06/30/19

99-24+

1.035

0.7341

99-142

1.089

135-147

WI

07/31/19

99-103

1.106

135-103

90.7

19.1

64.9

54.6

54.6

0.23

(3.77)

0.816

7.803

18.9

50.9

51.3

0.23

(3.50)

0.823

3.625

08/15/19

117-232

1.011

0.8737

116-102

1.067

133-043

85.2

23.5

44.9

(0.1)

0.0

0.23

0.23

0.801

8.729

8.729

WI

08/31/19

99-063

1.128

135-047

18.0

46.1

47.2

0.23

(3.16)

0.831

WI

09/30/19

WI

10/31/19

99-087

1.142

136-163

18.4

78.3

78.3

0.23

(5.53)

0.836

99-187

1.160

136-086

17.9

74.2

72.9

0.23

(5.23)

0.843

3.375

11/15/19

116-070

1.058

0.8560

114-292

1.115

134-076

89.1

23.1

72.0

30.2

30.3

0.23

(1.67)

0.823

8.943

9.198

WI

11/30/19

WI

12/31/19

99-200

1.179

136-03+

17.4

69.8

68.9

0.23

(4.91)

0.852

99-185

1.193

137-142

17.6

97.9

98.7

0.23

(6.93)

0.859

3.625

02/15/20

118-065

1.103

0.8659

116-256

1.161

134-28+

91.8

23.0

93.5

48.5

48.6

0.23

(2.77)

0.845

9.313

9.830

3.500

05/15/20

2.625

08/15/20

117-141

1.153

0.8547

116-025

1.213

135-261

95.4

21.7

116.7

73.2

73.3

0.23

(4.32)

0.862

9.553

10.282

110-237

1.218

0.7985

109-241

1.278

137-143

101.4

19.2

141.9

110.1

110.2

0.23

(7.04)

0.890

9.490

2.625

10.554

11/15/20

110-217

1.264

0.7932

109-220

1.325

138-091

104.9

18.3

162.5

130.6

130.7

0.23

(8.38)

0.901

9.749

10.973

3.625

02/15/21

118-263

1.291

0.8508

117-13+

1.353

138-003

104.7

19.2

177.6

132.6

132.7

0.23

(7.93)

0.908

10.436

11.838

3.125

05/15/21

114-201

1.355

0.8150

113-135

1.419

139-05+

109.6

16.0

195.8

157.3

157.4

0.23

(9.78)

0.928

10.472

12.144

2.125

08/15/21

105-316

1.417

0.7449

105-065

1.480

141-07+

117.4

13.3

218.1

192.9

193.0

0.23

(13.07)

0.953

10.252

12.198

2.000

11/15/21

104-197

1.466

0.7307

103-281

1.531

142-052

121.6

11.6

234.7

211.0

211.1

0.23

(14.49)

0.970

10.416

12.616

2.000

02/15/22

104-112

1.508

0.7249

103-196

1.573

142-300

125.2

10.6

250.9

227.3

227.4

0.23

(15.68)

0.986

10.640

13.109

1.750

05/15/22

101-24+

1.555

0.7016

101-041

1.620

144-04+

130.4

8.9

267.3

246.9

247.0

0.23

(17.48)

1.000

10.722

13.392

WI

08/15/22

99-021

1.668

145-101

7.1

265.0

264.6

0.23

(19.31)

1.012

WI

11/15/22

99-11+

1.707

146-010

6.2

277.1

276.9

0.23

(20.03)

1.027

Cpn

Source: Nomura

Delivery
Prob

100.0%

Fwd
Price

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for TYZ2 on Model Delivery Date (12/31/2012) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

1.000

06/30/19

68.4

65.6

62.8

61.4

60.0

58.7

57.3

56.0

54.6

53.3

52.0

50.7

49.4

48.1

46.8

44.3

41.8

WI

07/31/19

68.1

64.6

61.1

59.4

57.7

56.0

54.3

52.6

51.0

49.3

47.7

46.1

44.5

42.9

41.3

38.2

35.2

3.625

08/15/19

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

WI

08/31/19

66.9

62.6

58.4

56.4

54.3

52.2

50.2

48.2

46.2

44.2

42.3

40.4

38.4

36.5

34.6

30.9

27.2

WI

09/30/19

103.9

98.6

93.4

90.9

88.3

85.8

83.3

80.8

78.4

76.0

73.6

71.2

68.8

66.5

64.1

59.5

55.0

WI

10/31/19

103.3

97.3

91.4

88.5

85.6

82.7

79.9

77.1

74.3

71.5

68.8

66.1

63.4

60.8

58.1

52.9

47.8

3.375

11/15/19

44.6

41.6

38.7

37.3

35.8

34.4

33.0

31.7

30.3

28.9

27.6

26.3

25.0

23.7

22.4

19.9

17.4

WI

11/30/19

102.8

96.0

89.3

86.0

82.7

79.4

76.2

73.0

69.9

66.8

63.7

60.6

57.6

54.6

51.6

45.7

40.0

WI

12/31/19

135.8

127.9

120.2

116.4

112.7

108.9

105.3

101.6

98.0

94.4

90.9

87.4

83.9

80.4

77.0

70.3

63.7

3.625

02/15/20

74.9

69.4

64.1

61.4

58.8

56.2

53.7

51.1

48.6

46.1

43.7

41.3

38.9

36.5

34.2

29.6

25.1

3.500

05/15/20

112.3

104.1

96.2

92.2

88.4

84.5

80.8

77.0

73.3

69.7

66.0

62.5

58.9

55.4

52.0

45.2

38.5

2.625

08/15/20

168.1

156.0

144.2

138.3

132.6

126.9

121.3

115.7

110.2

104.8

99.4

94.1

88.8

83.7

78.5

68.4

58.6

2.625

11/15/20

199.3

184.9

170.9

164.0

157.2

150.4

143.8

137.2

130.7

124.3

117.9

111.6

105.4

99.3

93.2

81.3

69.7

3.625

02/15/21

208.0

192.2

176.8

169.2

161.7

154.4

147.1

139.9

132.7

125.7

118.8

111.9

105.1

98.4

91.8

78.8

66.2

3.125

05/15/21

247.8

228.8

210.3

201.2

192.2

183.3

174.6

165.9

157.4

148.9

140.6

132.4

124.3

116.2

108.3

92.8

77.6

2.125

08/15/21

300.9

278.2

256.1

245.2

234.5

224.0

213.5

203.2

193.0

182.9

173.0

163.2

153.5

144.0

134.6

116.0

98.0

2.000

11/15/21

331.9

306.5

281.7

269.5

257.5

245.7

234.0

222.5

211.1

199.9

188.8

177.8

167.0

156.4

145.8

125.2

105.1

2.000

02/15/22

361.1

332.9

305.4

292.0

278.7

265.6

252.7

239.9

227.4

215.0

202.7

190.6

178.7

167.0

155.4

132.7

110.6

1.750

05/15/22

392.7

362.0

332.0

317.4

302.9

288.7

274.6

260.7

247.0

233.5

220.2

207.1

194.1

181.3

168.7

144.1

120.1

WI

08/15/22

422.3

389.1

356.7

340.9

325.3

309.9

294.8

279.8

265.0

250.5

236.2

222.0

208.1

194.3

180.8

154.3

128.5

WI

11/15/22

446.5

410.7

375.9

358.8

342.0

325.4

309.1

293.0

277.2

261.5

246.1

230.9

216.0

201.2

186.7

158.3

130.7

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for TYZ2 on Model Delivery Date (12/31/2012)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

08/19

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

FVZ2 First Delivery Date 12/03/2012 Last Trade Date 12/31/2012 Last Delivery Date 01/04/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

124-056

124-046

(1.0)

0.1

(0.5)

0.0

56.0

50.9

24.9

4.511

0.227

16.1

(0.0)

50.0

0.875 02/28/17

(0.8)

18.7

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

100.0%

Model Delivery Date 01/04/2013 (161 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

0.875

02/28/17

101-086

0.593

0.8135

100-317

0.632

124-046

56.0

1.000

03/31/17

101-23+

0.622

0.8148

101-127

0.663

124-14+

57.0

0.875

04/30/17

101-045

0.630

0.8069

100-276

0.671

125-001

0.625

05/31/17

99-302

0.637

0.7941

99-246

0.677

0.750

06/30/17

100-152

0.651

0.7956

100-081

WI

07/31/17

99-153

WI

08/31/17

99-172

WI

09/30/17

WI

10/31/17

WI

11/30/17

WI

12/31/17

Source: Nomura

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

18.1

8.1

(0.8)

0.0

16.8

17.7

7.1

7.9

0.23

0.28

0.920

8.127

8.127

0.23

(0.27)

0.940

8.286

58.4

17.4

30.2

21.3

8.463

22.1

0.23

(1.27)

0.962

8.402

125-205

59.9

18.6

42.7

37.2

8.779

38.0

0.23

(2.42)

0.983

8.489

9.063

0.692

126-003

61.0

19.0

53.7

46.6

47.4

0.23

0.709

126-176

18.8

60.8

60.5

0.23

(3.08)

1.000

8.653

9.403

(4.14)

1.020

0.726

126-311

19.0

69.9

70.8

0.23

(4.76)

1.039

99-145

0.743

127-131

19.2

80.2

81.4

0.23

(5.50)

1.058

99-196

0.757

127-261

19.3

91.2

91.3

0.23

(6.29)

1.074

99-210

0.773

128-075

19.5

101.5

101.4

0.23

(7.04)

1.092

99-227

0.792

128-205

19.4

111.0

111.1

0.23

(7.72)

1.114

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for FVZ2 on Model Delivery Date (01/04/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

0.0

Cpn

Maturity

0.875

02/28/17

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.000

03/31/17

13.2

12.1

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.4

7.9

7.4

6.9

6.4

5.9

5.4

5.0

4.0

3.1

0.875

04/30/17

33.9

31.5

29.1

27.9

26.7

25.5

24.4

23.3

22.1

21.0

19.9

18.8

17.7

16.6

15.5

13.4

11.3

0.625

05/31/17

56.5

52.7

48.9

47.1

45.2

43.4

41.6

39.8

38.0

36.2

34.5

32.8

31.0

29.3

27.6

24.3

21.0

0.750

06/30/17

71.3

66.4

61.5

59.1

56.7

54.4

52.0

49.7

47.4

45.1

42.9

40.6

38.4

36.2

34.0

29.7

25.5

WI

07/31/17

92.3

85.9

79.7

76.6

73.6

70.5

67.5

64.6

61.6

58.7

55.8

52.9

50.1

47.2

44.4

38.9

33.5

WI

08/31/17

106.8

99.3

92.0

88.3

84.7

81.2

77.6

74.1

70.6

67.2

63.8

60.4

57.1

53.7

50.4

43.9

37.6

WI

09/30/17

123.4

114.6

105.9

101.7

97.5

93.3

89.1

85.0

80.9

76.9

72.9

68.9

65.0

61.1

57.3

49.7

42.2

WI

10/31/17

140.2

130.2

120.4

115.5

110.7

106.0

101.3

96.6

92.0

87.4

82.8

78.3

73.9

69.4

65.1

56.4

47.9

WI

11/30/17

156.8

145.5

134.4

128.9

123.5

118.1

112.8

107.5

102.3

97.1

92.0

86.9

81.9

76.9

72.0

62.3

52.8

WI

12/31/17

173.1

160.3

147.8

141.7

135.6

129.5

123.5

117.6

111.7

105.9

100.2

94.5

88.8

83.2

77.7

66.7

56.0

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for FVZ2 on Model Delivery Date (01/04/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

02/17

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

TUZ2 First Delivery Date 12/03/2012 Last Trade Date 12/31/2012 Last Delivery Date 01/04/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

110-080

110-073

(0.6)

(1.6)

0.8

0.0

23.7

29.2

23.1

2.148

0.057

15.4

(0.0)

31.2

2.375 09/30/14

(0.6)

22.7

Yield

Conv
Factor

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Model
Basis

Repo

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

Model Delivery Date 01/04/2013 (161 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

0.250

09/15/14

99-306

0.268

0.9058

2.375

09/30/14

104-193

0.244

0.9406

WI

09/30/14

0.500

10/15/14

100-157

0.275

0.9058

2.375

10/31/14

104-221

0.285

WI

10/31/14

0.375

11/15/14

100-067

2.125

11/30/14

WI

11/30/14

0.250

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

99-30+

0.278

110-111

23.4

18.0

3.1

2.8

3.4

0.23

0.03

1.200

8.955

8.759

103-217

0.248

110-073

23.7

21.6

29.0

(0.6)

0.0

0.23

0.27

1.227

9.397

9.397

99-300

0.285

110-10+

17.9

2.4

2.8

0.23

0.06

1.240

100-121

0.286

110-261

24.4

18.0

20.2

16.5

17.0

0.23

(0.94)

1.278

9.332

9.721

0.9379

103-24+

0.298

110-203

24.6

16.8

41.2

11.6

12.2

0.23

(0.56)

1.309

9.754

10.407

99-306

0.295

110-26+

17.1

16.5

17.2

0.23

(0.95)

1.323

0.281

0.8996

100-047

0.293

111-10+

25.5

17.5

33.1

31.1

31.6

0.23

(1.98)

1.369

9.664

10.784

104-086

0.288

0.9308

103-145

0.302

111-046

25.7

16.9

52.9

26.8

27.4

0.23

(1.60)

1.390

10.086

11.427

99-31+

0.305

111-103

16.6

31.0

31.4

0.23

(1.98)

1.403

12/15/14

99-293

0.284

0.8931

99-291

0.296

111-277

26.5

18.0

46.6

46.3

46.9

0.23

(3.07)

1.438

9.996

11.713

2.625

12/31/14

105-211

0.276

0.9373

104-203

0.286

111-203

26.6

19.7

74.3

41.6

42.2

0.23

(2.57)

1.462

10.526

12.540

WI

12/31/14

100-002

0.314

111-262

16.9

45.1

45.4

0.23

(2.99)

1.480

Source: Nomura

Fwd
Price

100.0%

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for TUZ2 on Model Delivery Date (01/04/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

0.250

09/15/14

1.1

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

5.2

5.6

2.375

09/30/14

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

WI

09/30/14

4.6

4.2

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.7

1.4

0.500

10/15/14

22.8

21.6

20.4

19.9

19.3

18.7

18.2

17.6

17.0

16.5

15.9

15.4

14.8

14.3

13.7

12.6

11.6

2.375

10/31/14

20.9

19.1

17.4

16.5

15.7

14.8

13.9

13.1

12.2

11.4

10.6

9.7

8.9

8.1

7.3

5.6

4.0

WI

10/31/14

27.4

25.3

23.2

22.2

21.2

20.1

19.1

18.1

17.1

16.1

15.1

14.1

13.1

12.2

11.2

9.3

7.4

0.375

11/15/14

46.8

43.7

40.7

39.1

37.6

36.1

34.6

33.1

31.6

30.2

28.7

27.2

25.8

24.3

22.9

20.1

17.2

2.125

11/30/14

45.3

41.6

38.0

36.2

34.4

32.7

30.9

29.1

27.4

25.7

24.0

22.2

20.5

18.9

17.2

13.8

10.5

WI

11/30/14

50.8

46.9

43.0

41.1

39.1

37.2

35.3

33.4

31.6

29.7

27.9

26.0

24.2

22.3

20.5

16.9

13.4

0.250

12/15/14

70.6

65.7

60.9

58.5

56.2

53.8

51.5

49.2

46.9

44.6

42.3

40.0

37.8

35.5

33.3

28.9

24.5

2.625

12/31/14

69.0

63.5

58.1

55.4

52.7

50.0

47.4

44.8

42.2

39.6

37.0

34.4

31.9

29.3

26.8

21.8

16.9

WI

12/31/14

74.2

68.3

62.6

59.7

56.9

54.0

51.2

48.4

45.7

42.9

40.2

37.5

34.7

32.1

29.4

24.1

18.8

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for TUZ2 on Model Delivery Date (01/04/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

09/14

09/14

09/14

(9)

09/14

09/14

(8)

09/14

09/14

(7)

09/14

(6)

09/14

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

09/14

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

WNH3 First Delivery Date 03/01/2013 Last Trade Date 03/19/2013 Last Delivery Date 03/28/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

169-010

167-176

(47.2)

(50.0)

1.9

0.5

290.9

289.1

(18.6)

17.364

3.416

36.6

(0.9)

86.3

4.500 05/15/38

(37.7)

(10.6)

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Model
Basis

Repo

97.5%

Model Delivery Date 03/28/2013 (244 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

4.500

05/15/38

138-001

2.493

0.8070

135-073

2.585

167-182

290.0

3.500

02/15/39

118-107

2.545

0.6742

116-066

2.632

172-117

317.8

(15.8)

51.1

(37.7)

0.3

(19.6)

140.1

72.0

103.8

0.22

1.49

0.995

8.031

8.045

0.22

(2.63)

1.003

7.353

4.250

05/15/39

133-137

2.525

0.7710

130-261

2.615

169-21+

303.9

(17.7)

99.5

15.8

7.431

52.1

0.22

(0.34)

0.995

8.043

4.500

08/15/39

138-186

2.523

0.8029

135-26+

2.612

169-05+

301.7

(17.1)

91.8

8.058

3.6

41.4

0.22

0.09

0.993

8.313

8.310

4.375

11/15/39

136-035

2.534

0.7857

133-133

4.625

02/15/40

141-106

2.532

0.8179

138-160

2.623

169-257

306.2

(18.0)

2.621

169-106

304.0

(17.4)

105.7

19.5

56.5

0.22

(0.45)

0.994

8.256

8.260

98.7

8.0

46.5

0.22

(0.05)

0.991

8.533

4.375

05/15/40

136-083

2.546

0.7841

133-182

2.635

170-111

310.6

8.519

(18.7)

119.2

33.0

69.9

0.22

(0.92)

0.993

8.360

3.875

08/15/40

125-306

2.570

0.7165

123-191

2.657

172-160

8.355

323.3

(20.6)

155.2

79.5

113.2

0.22

(2.74)

0.996

7.950

4.250

11/15/40

133-260

2.562

0.7657

131-062

2.650

7.975

171-107

317.6

(19.7)

140.3

56.6

92.7

0.22

(1.76)

0.992

8.346

4.750

02/15/41

144-127

2.551

0.8320

141-155

8.341

2.639

170-017

310.6

(18.3)

120.5

27.3

66.5

0.22

(0.67)

0.988

8.870

4.375

05/15/41

136-182

2.570

0.7809

8.828

133-280

2.657

171-140

319.6

(20.0)

146.4

60.2

96.9

0.22

(1.84)

0.991

8.564

3.750

08/15/41

123-13+

2.597

0.6955

8.543

121-043

2.682

174-05+

335.6

(22.2)

187.6

114.4

147.1

0.22

(4.12)

0.995

8.011

3.125

11/15/41

110-040

2.627

8.027

0.6097

108-070

2.710

177-160

355.6

(24.9)

226.2

165.2

193.9

0.22

(6.80)

1.000

7.441

3.125

02/15/42

110-020

7.495

2.633

0.6083

108-053

2.715

177-262

358.1

(25.2)

231.7

171.1

199.7

0.22

(7.06)

1.000

7.476

3.000

05/15/42

7.530

107-120

2.641

0.5900

105-17+

2.723

178-285

365.0

(25.9)

244.7

186.2

214.0

0.22

(7.89)

1.000

7.390

7.441

WI
WI

08/15/42

97-116

2.745

182-143

(27.9)

216.8

247.7

0.22

(10.01)

1.003

11/15/42

98-056

2.751

183-170

(28.4)

220.5

252.3

0.22

(10.19)

1.003

WI

02/15/43

98-190

2.756

184-097

(28.7)

224.9

257.3

0.22

(10.42)

1.003

Source: Nomura

2.5%

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for WNH3 on Model Delivery Date (03/28/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

4.500

05/15/38

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.500

02/15/39

180.8

163.2

146.7

138.9

131.3

124.0

116.9

110.1

103.5

97.1

91.0

85.0

79.2

73.7

68.3

58.1

48.6

4.250

05/15/39

93.1

83.5

74.7

70.5

66.4

62.6

58.8

55.2

51.8

48.5

45.3

42.2

39.2

36.4

33.6

28.5

23.7

4.500

08/15/39

75.9

67.8

60.2

56.7

53.3

50.1

47.0

44.0

41.1

38.4

35.7

33.2

30.8

28.5

26.3

22.2

18.4

4.375

11/15/39

104.3

93.1

82.7

77.8

73.1

68.6

64.3

60.2

56.2

52.4

48.7

45.2

41.9

38.6

35.6

29.8

24.5

4.625

02/15/40

88.3

78.3

69.2

64.9

60.9

56.9

53.2

49.6

46.2

42.9

39.8

36.8

34.0

31.3

28.7

23.9

19.5

4.375

05/15/40

130.4

116.2

103.1

96.9

91.0

85.3

79.9

74.6

69.6

64.8

60.2

55.8

51.6

47.6

43.7

36.4

29.8

3.875

08/15/40

205.9

184.3

164.4

155.0

145.9

137.2

128.8

120.7

113.0

105.5

98.4

91.5

84.9

78.5

72.4

60.9

50.3

4.250

11/15/40

172.1

153.5

136.3

128.2

120.4

113.0

105.8

98.9

92.4

86.0

80.0

74.2

68.6

63.3

58.2

48.7

39.9

4.750

02/15/41

128.0

113.3

99.9

93.6

87.6

81.9

76.4

71.2

66.2

61.4

56.9

52.6

48.4

44.5

40.8

33.8

27.6

4.375

05/15/41

182.7

162.5

143.9

135.1

126.8

118.7

111.0

103.7

96.6

89.9

83.4

77.2

71.3

65.7

60.2

50.1

40.9

3.750

08/15/41

269.6

241.0

214.6

202.2

190.2

178.7

167.7

157.1

146.9

137.1

127.7

118.7

110.0

101.7

93.8

78.8

65.0

3.125

11/15/41

351.4

314.8

281.0

265.0

249.6

234.8

220.5

206.8

193.7

181.0

168.8

157.1

145.8

135.0

124.6

105.0

86.9

3.125

02/15/42

363.2

325.3

290.1

273.5

257.5

242.1

227.4

213.2

199.5

186.4

173.8

161.6

150.0

138.8

128.0

107.8

89.1

3.000

05/15/42

387.7

347.4

310.0

292.4

275.4

259.1

243.4

228.3

213.8

199.8

186.4

173.5

161.1

149.2

137.8

116.3

96.4

WI

08/15/42

437.5

392.2

350.2

330.4

311.3

292.9

275.2

258.2

241.9

226.2

211.0

196.5

182.5

169.1

156.2

131.9

109.4

WI

11/15/42

445.6

399.2

356.2

335.9

316.4

297.6

279.6

262.2

245.5

229.5

214.0

199.2

185.0

171.3

158.1

133.4

110.5

WI

02/15/43

454.9

407.3

363.2

342.4

322.4

303.2

284.7

267.0

249.9

233.5

217.7

202.5

188.0

174.0

160.6

135.3

112.0

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for WNH3 on Model Delivery Date (03/28/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

05/38

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

10

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

02/41

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

USH3 First Delivery Date 03/01/2013 Last Trade Date 03/19/2013 Last Delivery Date 03/28/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

150-100

149-210

(21.0)

(30.5)

0.7

0.1

179.8

178.4

8.3

12.015

1.741

32.7

(0.0)

86.3

5.500 08/15/28

(19.9)

2.6

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

99.7%

Model Delivery Date 03/28/2013 (244 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

5.500

08/15/28

145-203

2.127

0.9504

142-07+

2.240

149-210

179.8

5.250

11/15/28

142-131

2.150

0.9250

139-046

2.263

150-136

184.2

5.250

02/15/29

142-252

2.160

0.9242

139-17+

2.271

150-316

6.125

08/15/29

156-102

2.158

1.0127

152-166

2.269

6.250

05/15/30

159-233

2.181

1.0264

155-265

5.375

02/15/31

147-201

2.226

0.9322

144-097

4.500

02/15/36

136-287

2.432

0.8151

4.750

02/15/37

142-057

2.452

0.8427

5.000

05/15/37

147-03+

2.452

4.375

02/15/38

135-113

2.495

Source: Nomura

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

(1.2)

89.0

(19.9)

0.0

0.22

0.86

0.982

9.490

9.490

(2.6)

107.9

3.5

22.8

0.22

0.10

0.986

9.460

9.496

186.9

(2.4)

123.9

20.0

39.4

0.22

(0.44)

0.988

9.593

9.651

150-19+

185.9

(0.6)

131.2

9.6

30.9

0.22

(0.07)

0.980

10.454

10.437

2.291

151-262

192.7

(0.6)

174.4

49.6

71.1

0.22

(1.24)

0.982

10.984

10.989

2.331

154-256

207.5

(2.5)

240.2

134.0

153.5

0.22

(4.04)

0.993

10.741

10.867

134-045

2.526

164-182

268.1

(12.7)

460.2

371.9

389.0

0.22

(12.50)

0.999

12.137

12.341

139-08+

2.546

165-083

274.2

(13.3)

496.5

403.1

420.8

0.22

(13.06)

0.995

12.831

13.001

0.8737

144-005

2.547

164-267

272.9

(13.2)

505.1

406.1

424.4

0.22

(12.70)

0.992

13.239

13.378

0.7918

132-215

2.586

167-181

289.5

(16.2)

522.9

437.1

453.7

0.22

(14.90)

0.996

12.728

12.912

0.3%

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for USH3 on Model Delivery Date (03/28/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

5.500

08/15/28

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.250

11/15/28

38.9

35.4

32.0

30.4

28.8

27.3

25.8

24.3

22.8

21.4

20.1

18.7

17.4

16.1

14.9

12.5

10.2

5.250

02/15/29

66.0

60.2

54.6

51.9

49.3

46.7

44.2

41.8

39.4

37.1

34.8

32.6

30.5

28.4

26.4

22.5

18.7

6.125

08/15/29

52.0

47.3

42.8

40.6

38.5

36.5

34.6

32.7

30.9

29.1

27.4

25.7

24.1

22.6

21.1

18.2

15.6

6.250

05/15/30

118.6

107.9

97.9

93.1

88.4

83.9

79.5

75.2

71.1

67.1

63.2

59.4

55.8

52.2

48.8

42.2

36.1

5.375

02/15/31

253.0

230.9

209.9

199.9

190.1

180.6

171.3

162.3

153.5

145.0

136.7

128.7

120.9

113.2

105.8

91.7

78.3

4.500

02/15/36

662.7

601.1

543.1

515.4

488.5

462.5

437.2

412.7

389.0

366.0

343.7

322.2

301.2

281.0

261.4

223.9

188.9

4.750

02/15/37

720.8

653.0

589.4

559.0

529.6

501.1

473.5

446.7

420.8

395.7

371.4

347.9

325.2

303.1

281.8

241.3

203.3

5.000

05/15/37

729.1

660.2

595.5

564.7

534.8

505.9

477.8

450.7

424.4

399.0

374.4

350.6

327.6

305.3

283.7

242.7

204.3

4.375

02/15/38

782.4

708.0

638.1

604.9

572.6

541.4

511.2

482.0

453.7

426.3

399.8

374.2

349.4

325.4

302.2

258.1

216.9

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for USH3 on Model Delivery Date (03/28/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

08/28

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

TYH3 First Delivery Date 03/01/2013 Last Trade Date 03/19/2013 Last Delivery Date 03/28/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

132-09+

132-216

12.2

12.4

(0.1)

0.0

88.8

71.7

21.8

6.690

0.450

28.9

(0.0)

78.3

3.375 11/15/19

10.5

18.3

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge
-

Model Delivery Date 03/28/2013 (244 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

WI

09/30/19

99-083

1.178

134-217

18.4

56.7

47.0

0.22

(2.45)

0.836

WI

10/31/19

99-105

1.196

134-153

17.8

52.5

42.3

0.22

(2.25)

0.843

3.375

11/15/19

116-070

1.058

0.8604

99.8%

114-050

1.152

132-216

88.7

23.1

76.5

10.5

0.0

0.22

(0.21)

0.823

8.589

8.573

WI

11/30/19

0.1%

99-116

1.215

134-103

17.4

48.1

38.4

0.22

(2.05)

0.852

WI

12/31/19

99-125

1.229

135-202

17.5

76.9

68.6

0.22

(3.38)

0.859

WI

01/31/20

99-155

1.247

135-14+

17.1

73.0

64.2

0.22

(3.20)

0.868

3.625

02/15/20

118-065

1.103

0.8697

115-317

1.198

133-120

91.4

22.9

100.8

30.0

19.4

0.22

(0.97)

0.845

8.944

9.162

WI

02/29/20

3.500

05/15/20

117-141

1.153

0.8588

99-172

1.266

135-085

16.6

68.7

60.0

0.22

(3.00)

0.873

115-09+

1.251

134-081

95.0

21.5

122.4

53.8

43.3

0.22

(1.93)

0.862

9.174

9.584

2.625

08/15/20

110-237

1.218

0.8039

2.625

11/15/20

110-217

1.264

0.7985

109-057

1.316

135-261

100.8

19.1

140.6

90.5

80.7

0.22

(3.61)

0.890

9.114

9.837

109-03+

1.364

136-205

104.2

18.1

161.5

111.1

101.3

0.22

(4.48)

0.901

9.363

10.227

3.625

02/15/21

118-263

1.291

3.125

05/15/21

114-201

1.355

0.8544

116-195

1.393

136-155

104.3

18.9

185.3

114.6

104.1

0.22

(4.30)

0.908

10.023

11.034

0.8194

112-233

1.459

137-183

109.1

15.6

199.2

138.4

128.4

0.22

(5.43)

0.928

10.058

2.125

08/15/21

105-316

11.319

1.417

0.7507

104-240

1.520

139-171

116.6

13.0

213.7

173.9

164.7

0.22

(7.46)

0.953

9.846

2.000

11/15/21

11.370

104-197

1.466

0.7367

103-143

1.571

140-13+

120.7

11.2

229.0

191.6

182.6

0.22

(8.34)

0.970

10.003

11.759

2.000
1.750

02/15/22

104-112

1.508

0.7307

103-061

1.613

141-071

124.3

10.3

245.9

208.7

199.7

0.22

(9.13)

0.986

10.219

12.218

05/15/22

101-24+

1.555

0.7077

100-242

1.660

142-117

129.3

8.5

260.5

228.2

219.5

0.22

(10.26)

1.000

10.298

12.482

WI

08/15/22

98-23+

1.708

143-170

6.8

246.3

237.8

0.22

(11.41)

1.012

WI

11/15/22

99-01+

1.747

144-082

5.8

258.2

249.8

0.22

(11.87)

1.027

WI

02/15/23

99-101

1.787

144-30+

4.8

272.2

262.3

0.22

(12.58)

1.037

Source: Nomura

0.1%

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for TYH3 on Model Delivery Date (03/28/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

WI

09/30/19

59.9

57.4

54.9

53.7

52.5

51.3

50.1

48.9

47.7

46.5

45.4

44.2

43.0

41.9

40.8

38.5

36.3

WI

10/31/19

59.2

56.0

52.8

51.2

49.7

48.1

46.6

45.1

43.6

42.1

40.6

39.1

37.7

36.2

34.8

31.9

29.2

3.375

11/15/19

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

WI

11/30/19

58.7

54.7

50.7

48.7

46.8

44.9

42.9

41.1

39.2

37.3

35.5

33.6

31.8

30.0

28.3

24.8

21.3

WI

12/31/19

92.3

87.2

82.3

79.8

77.4

75.0

72.7

70.3

68.0

65.7

63.4

61.1

58.9

56.6

54.4

50.1

45.8

WI

01/31/20

92.2

86.3

80.6

77.8

75.0

72.2

69.4

66.7

64.0

61.3

58.7

56.1

53.5

50.9

48.4

43.4

38.5

3.625

02/15/20

31.1

28.7

26.3

25.1

23.9

22.8

21.6

20.5

19.4

18.3

17.2

16.1

15.0

14.0

12.9

10.9

8.9

WI

02/29/20

91.1

84.6

78.2

75.0

71.9

68.8

65.8

62.7

59.7

56.8

53.9

50.9

48.1

45.2

42.4

36.9

31.4

3.500

05/15/20

67.6

62.5

57.5

55.1

52.7

50.3

48.0

45.6

43.3

41.1

38.8

36.6

34.4

32.2

30.1

25.9

21.7

2.625

08/15/20

124.2

115.1

106.2

101.8

97.5

93.2

89.0

84.8

80.7

76.6

72.6

68.6

64.6

60.7

56.9

49.3

41.9

2.625

11/15/20

155.4

144.1

133.0

127.6

122.2

116.9

111.7

106.5

101.4

96.3

91.3

86.3

81.4

76.6

71.8

62.4

53.3

3.625

02/15/21

164.2

151.6

139.3

133.3

127.3

121.4

115.6

109.8

104.1

98.5

93.0

87.5

82.1

76.7

71.4

61.1

51.0

3.125

05/15/21

203.7

187.9

172.5

164.9

157.4

150.0

142.7

135.5

128.4

121.4

114.4

107.6

100.8

94.1

87.5

74.6

61.9

2.125

08/15/21

258.2

238.6

219.4

210.0

200.7

191.5

182.5

173.6

164.7

156.0

147.4

138.9

130.5

122.3

114.1

98.1

82.4

2.000

11/15/21

288.9

266.5

244.7

234.0

223.4

213.0

202.7

192.6

182.6

172.7

162.9

153.3

143.8

134.4

125.2

107.0

89.3

2.000

02/15/22

318.9

293.8

269.3

257.3

245.5

233.8

222.3

211.0

199.7

188.7

177.8

167.0

156.4

145.9

135.6

115.3

95.6

1.750

05/15/22

350.8

323.1

296.1

282.9

269.9

257.0

244.4

231.9

219.5

207.4

195.4

183.5

171.8

160.3

149.0

126.7

105.1

WI

08/15/22

381.0

350.7

321.3

306.9

292.7

278.7

264.9

251.3

237.9

224.7

211.6

198.8

186.1

173.6

161.2

137.1

113.6

WI

11/15/22

404.8

372.0

340.1

324.6

309.2

294.0

279.1

264.4

249.9

235.6

221.5

207.6

193.9

180.4

167.1

141.1

115.8

WI

02/15/23

429.7

394.6

360.5

343.8

327.3

311.1

295.2

279.4

263.9

248.6

233.6

218.7

204.1

189.7

175.6

147.8

120.9

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for TYH3 on Model Delivery Date (03/28/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

11/19

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

FVH3 First Delivery Date 03/01/2013 Last Trade Date 03/28/2013 Last Delivery Date 04/03/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

123-176

123-290

11.2

13.5

(2.5)

0.0

59.2

57.9

27.0

4.776

0.253

25.3

(0.0)

50.9

0.625 05/31/17

9.0

11.7

Price

Yield

Conv
Factor

Delivery
Prob

Fwd
Price

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Model
Basis

Repo

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

100.0%

Model Delivery Date 04/03/2013 (250 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

0.625

05/31/17

99-302

0.637

0.8044

99-213

0.706

123-290

59.2

18.6

17.8

9.0

0.0

0.22

(0.20)

0.983

8.032

8.032

0.750

06/30/17

100-152

0.651

0.8056

100-036

0.722

124-087

60.2

19.0

30.1

18.6

9.6

0.22

(0.63)

1.000

8.188

8.333

WI

07/31/17

99-16+

0.738

124-25+

18.9

31.5

22.7

0.22

(1.22)

1.020

WI

08/31/17

99-137

0.755

125-071

19.0

42.3

33.4

0.22

(1.72)

1.039

WI

09/30/17

99-15+

0.773

125-206

19.2

52.9

44.0

0.22

(2.20)

1.058

WI

10/31/17

99-161

0.788

126-017

19.3

63.4

54.2

0.22

(2.69)

1.074

WI

11/30/17

99-196

0.804

126-151

19.6

74.1

64.4

0.22

(3.18)

1.092

WI

12/31/17

99-19+

0.823

126-280

19.4

83.9

74.2

0.22

(3.63)

1.114

WI

01/31/18

99-22+

0.837

127-090

19.8

93.0

84.1

0.22

(4.03)

1.130

WI

02/28/18

99-222

0.853

127-222

20.0

103.1

94.1

0.22

(4.49)

1.141

WI

03/31/18

99-245

0.873

128-025

19.7

112.4

103.4

0.22

(4.92)

1.158

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for FVH3 on Model Delivery Date (04/03/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

0.0

Cpn

Maturity

0.625

05/31/17

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.750

06/30/17

14.8

13.7

12.7

12.1

11.6

11.1

10.6

10.1

9.6

9.1

8.6

8.1

7.6

7.2

6.7

5.7

4.8

WI

07/31/17

34.2

31.8

29.4

28.2

27.1

25.9

24.8

23.6

22.5

21.4

20.3

19.2

18.1

17.1

16.0

13.9

11.8

WI

08/31/17

50.7

47.1

43.6

41.8

40.1

38.4

36.7

35.0

33.3

31.7

30.1

28.4

26.8

25.2

23.7

20.5

17.5

WI

09/30/17

67.5

62.6

57.9

55.5

53.2

50.8

48.5

46.3

44.0

41.8

39.6

37.4

35.2

33.0

30.9

26.7

22.6

WI

10/31/17

83.7

77.7

71.7

68.8

65.9

63.0

60.2

57.4

54.6

51.8

49.1

46.3

43.6

41.0

38.3

33.1

28.0

WI

11/30/17

100.6

93.3

86.1

82.6

79.0

75.6

72.1

68.7

65.3

62.0

58.6

55.4

52.1

48.9

45.7

39.4

33.2

WI

12/31/17

117.1

108.4

99.8

95.6

91.4

87.3

83.2

79.1

75.1

71.1

67.2

63.3

59.4

55.6

51.8

44.3

37.0

WI

01/31/18

132.0

122.1

112.3

107.5

102.7

98.0

93.4

88.7

84.2

79.6

75.2

70.7

66.3

62.0

57.7

49.2

40.8

WI

02/28/18

147.2

136.2

125.4

120.1

114.8

109.6

104.5

99.4

94.3

89.3

84.3

79.4

74.6

69.8

65.0

55.6

46.5

WI

03/31/18

162.6

150.4

138.3

132.4

126.5

120.7

115.0

109.3

103.6

98.1

92.5

87.1

81.7

76.3

71.0

60.6

50.3

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for FVH3 on Model Delivery Date (04/03/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

05/17

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

TUH3 First Delivery Date 03/01/2013 Last Trade Date 03/28/2013 Last Delivery Date 04/03/2013
Market

Model

Rho

Vega

OTR

Price

Price

Current

(Rich)/Cheap
Avg

Z-Score

Option (tk)

Delivery
//

Factor 1

PV01
Factor 2

Duration

Convexity

(tk/%)

(tk/10bp)

BP Vol

Current Cheapest to Deliver


Issue

BNOC

Inv Sprd

109-24+

110-042

11.7

11.7

(0.0)

0.0

26.4

39.0

30.5

2.398

0.069

24.4

(0.0)

34.0

2.625 12/31/14

11.1

0.3

Yield

Conv
Factor

Fwd
Yield

Conv
Fwd Px

Conv Fwd
DV01

Model
Basis

Repo

Parallel
Hedge

2-Factor
Hedge

Model Delivery Date 04/03/2013 (250 Days)


Cpn

Maturity

Price

Delivery
Prob

0.250

12/15/14

99-293

0.284

0.9058

2.625

12/31/14

105-211

0.276

0.9447

WI

12/31/14

0.250

01/15/15

99-292

0.284

0.9016

2.250

01/31/15

104-271

0.304

0.9358

103-155

WI

01/31/15

100-015

0.250

02/15/15

99-275

0.304

0.8973

99-267

0.335

2.375

02/28/15

105-09+

0.317

0.9353

103-267

WI

02/28/15

100-021

0.375

03/15/15

100-051

0.314

0.8955

100-015

0.348

2.500

03/31/15

105-266

0.304

0.9350

104-09+

WI

03/31/15

100-033

Source: Nomura

Fwd
Price

Fwd
ASW

Gross
Basis

Net
Basis

Implied
Repo

Implied
Beta

99-286

0.310

110-092

26.2

17.9

15.8

15.1

4.5

0.22

(0.47)

1.438

8.959

8.811

104-013

0.299

110-042

26.4

19.7

62.8

11.1

0.0

0.22

(0.26)

1.462

9.433

9.433

100-000

0.330

110-075

16.6

13.9

3.1

0.22

(0.42)

1.480

99-285

0.309

110-25+

27.2

18.9

30.4

29.8

19.2

0.22

(1.14)

1.519

9.267

9.628

0.336

110-186

27.4

16.3

68.2

24.6

13.6

0.22

(0.86)

1.553

9.707

10.314

0.342

110-233

15.7

27.8

17.2

0.22

(1.05)

1.570

111-085

28.2

16.9

43.8

43.2

32.7

0.22

(1.75)

1.614

9.579

10.574

0.353

111-006

28.4

15.3

84.3

37.6

26.7

0.22

(1.42)

1.628

10.057

11.197

0.351

111-070

15.5

41.6

31.3

0.22

(1.68)

1.647

111-232

29.3

16.3

59.6

56.2

45.7

0.22

(2.34)

1.685

9.909

11.422

0.334

111-17+

29.5

18.5

102.5

53.3

42.4

0.22

(2.08)

1.707

10.410

12.155

0.360

111-225

15.8

55.5

45.1

0.22

(2.31)

1.729

100.0%

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

Net Basis for TUH3 on Model Delivery Date (04/03/2013) Factor Shift
On-the-Run Shift (bp)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

80

100

Cpn

Maturity

0.250

12/15/14

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

6.1

6.5

2.625

12/31/14

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

WI

12/31/14

5.5

5.1

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.250

01/15/15

26.2

24.7

23.3

22.6

21.9

21.2

20.6

19.9

19.2

18.5

17.8

17.2

16.5

15.9

15.2

13.9

12.6

2.250

01/31/15

23.9

21.8

19.7

18.7

17.6

16.6

15.6

14.6

13.6

12.6

11.6

10.7

9.7

8.7

7.8

5.9

4.0

WI

01/31/15

29.3

26.8

24.4

23.2

22.0

20.8

19.6

18.4

17.2

16.0

14.8

13.7

12.5

11.4

10.3

8.0

5.8

0.250

02/15/15

50.1

46.5

43.0

41.2

39.5

37.8

36.1

34.3

32.7

31.0

29.3

27.6

26.0

24.4

22.7

19.5

16.3

2.375

02/28/15

46.1

42.1

38.2

36.2

34.3

32.4

30.5

28.6

26.7

24.8

22.9

21.1

19.3

17.4

15.6

12.1

8.5

WI

02/28/15

52.4

48.0

43.7

41.6

39.4

37.3

35.2

33.1

31.1

29.0

26.9

24.9

22.9

20.9

18.9

14.9

11.1

0.375

03/15/15

72.2

66.8

61.4

58.7

56.1

53.5

50.9

48.3

45.7

43.2

40.7

38.1

35.6

33.2

30.7

25.8

21.0

2.500

03/31/15

72.1

66.0

60.0

57.0

54.0

51.1

48.1

45.2

42.4

39.5

36.7

33.8

31.0

28.3

25.5

20.0

14.6

WI

03/31/15

76.7

70.2

63.8

60.6

57.4

54.3

51.2

48.1

45.0

41.9

38.9

35.9

32.9

29.9

27.0

21.1

15.4

Note
Shifts are applied to the forward yield of the on-the-run as of the model delivery date; the other issues are then shifted based on the implied betas

Source: Nomura

US Treasury Futures Basis Report


George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Trade Date: 07/27/2012

Stanley Sun (+1 212 667 1236)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

CTD Switch Grid for TUH3 on Model Delivery Date (04/03/2013)

Level Shift

Slope Change

Bull Flattening

Bear Flattening

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(10)

(9)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

12/14

10

Bull Steepening

Notes
1. CTD switch grid is constructed assuming delivery on the model delivery date and ignores the end-of-month option
2. Slope change - for a 1 bp steepening, the forward yield of longest maturity security is increased by 0.5 bp, while that of the shortest maturity security is decreased by 0.5 bp;
the yield changes of the other securities are then linearly interpolated based to maturity; other slope changes are interpreted analogously
3. Asterisks (*) indicate that there are no CTD switches (i.e., the CTD is the same as the center grid)

Source: Nomura

Bear Steepening

Nomura | Rates RV Analytics

Glossary

Last Trade Date: e last business day of the delivery month for the TU and FV contracts; the seventh business day preceding the
last business day of the delivery month for the TY, US, and WN contracts.

Last Delivery Date: e third business day following the last trade date for the TU and FV contracts; the last business day of the
delivery month for the remaining contracts.

Model Price: e fair price of a contract computed using Nomuras Multi-Factor Futures Model. e model ) generates the yield
distribution of each deliverable over time using two independent factors, ) allows delivery at any time during the delivery month,
) explicitly values the end-of-month option, ) includes as-yet-unauctioned securities, and ) is calibrated to the options market.

(Rich)/Cheap: e dierence between the model and market prices in nds. A positive (negative) number indicates the futures is
trading cheap (rich) to the model.

Delivery Option Value (DOV): Value of the embedded delivery option, computed as the dierence between the converted forward
price of the CTD and the model price in nds.

Factors & : Factor loadings obtained from a principal component analysis on historical yields. Factor resembles a level shi
with the front and long end of the yield curve moving less than the intermediate sector. Factor can be interpreted as the steepening
or attening of the yield curve.

PV (Parallel): e change in futures price if the yields of the deliverables change by bp. Changes in the delivery option value
are accounted for by this measure.

PV (Factor or ): e change in futures price if a factor or factor shi is applied to the deliverables yields. Factor is scaled
such that the yield of the on-the-run changes by bp. Factor is then scaled to preserve the relative volatilities of the two factors.

Duration: e percentage change in futures price relative to a parallel shi in the deliverables yields.

Convexity: e second derivative of futures price with respect to the deliverables yields, divided by price.

Rho: e change in futures price (in nds) when the term repo rates are increased by bp.

Vega: e sensitivity of the futures price to a bp increase in implied volatility.

BP Vol: Annualized implied volatility of an at-the-money option on the the reference bond.

Cheapest to Deliver (CTD): e current CTD is the bond with the lowest converted forward price.

Conversion Factor: Approximately equal to the price (divided by ) of the deliverable at a yield as of the rst day of the delivery
month.

Delivery Probability: Expected probability that the deliverable will be delivered into the contract.

Model Delivery Date: e date on which the delivery probability is the highest. is is usually the last delivery date; however, if
carry is suciently negative to oset the delivery option value, the model may recommend early delivery.

Converted Forward Price & DV: Forward price or forward DV divided by the conversion factor. Forward DV is computed
relative to changes in the spot yield.

Forward Asset Swap Spread: e dierence between the forward swap rate and the bonds forward yield in basis points. e swap
starts on the model delivery date and matures on the deliverables maturity date.

Gross Basis: (Bond spot clean price futures market price conversion factor, expressed in nds.

Net Basis: Gross basis less carry, expressed in nds.

Model Net Basis: e fair value of the net basis for a deliverable as estimated by the model.

Repo: Mid-market term nancing rate to the model delivery date.

Implied Repo Rate: Annualized theoretical return by buying the deliverable, selling the futures, and delivering the bond into the
futures contract on the model delivery date. If the bond is nanced, the pro t of the trade is the dierence between the implied
and market term repo rates.

Implied Beta: Sensitivity of the deliverables yield relative to the on-the-run, as implied by the PCA factors.

Parallel (Factor) Shi Hedge Ratio: e number of futures contracts needed to hedge million par amount of the deliverables,
assuming a parallel (-factor) shi of the deliverables yields.

Compiled on May , .

Helin Gai

Nomura | Rates RV Analytics

Disclosure Appendix A-1


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