European Coffee Federation

Coffee Market Overview March 2011

(issue nr 4)

Introduction
In this publication by ECF, initiated by the ECF Logistics Committee, we aim to provide a quick overview of key parameters of the coffee market to our external relations. The information is drawn mainly from public sources like Eurostat and the International Coffee Organization, but presented in an accessible and compact format. Comments and suggestions are welcome. Please contact us at: European Coffee Federation P.O. Box 161 2280 AD Rijswijk The Netherlands Telephone +31 70 336 51 65 E-mail ecf@ecf-coffee.org

Production
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates total production in crop year 2010/11 to be 133.7 million bags, representing an increase of 8.6% in relation to the preceding crop year. Brazil has produced at least 48 million bags during crop year 2010/11 (the high production year in its biannual cycle). Although crop year 2011/12 is an off year in the biennial cycle for Arabica production in Brazil, a total crop of more than 43 million bags is now expected. Colombian production is slowly recovering from the low levels of the three preceding crop years and an increase is expected in crop year 2011/12. A fall of 3.2% is expected in the Asia & Oceania region where Indonesia has recorded a significant decline due to adverse weather conditions. The graph shows the latest data for the green coffee production of the 20 largest producing countries, ranked in accordance with the 2010/2011 crop.

Green coffee production crop years 2008/09 - 2010/11 (in 1000 bags)
50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

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Exports
Production does not automatically reflect exports because of local consumption. The table on the left - based on ICO data - provides information on the exports to all destinations by the ten major exporting countries.

Coffee exports 10 main countries calendar years 2008 - 2010 (bags)

35.000.000 30.000.000 25.000.000 20.000.000

2008
15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000 0

2009 2010

Prices
In this overview, world market prices for green coffee are provided in the form of the ICO Indicator Prices for Colombian Milds, Other Milds. Brazilian Naturals and Robustas.

ICO Indicator Prices monthly averages (US cents/pound)

350,00 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00

This monthly aver50,00 age is the highest 0,00 recorded since June 1977. It also represents an increase of more than 75.1% in relation to February 2010. Prices for all ICO Composite Indicator Colombian Mild Arabicas Other Mild Arabicas four groups of cofBrazilian Natural Arabicas Robustas fee recorded increases in February but Arabicas recorded their highest price levels for many years. The monthly average for Colombian Milds in February was the highest recorded since May 1997. In the case of Other Milds, prices reached a level of 287.89 US cents per lb, the highest monthly average since April 1977. Similarly, the level of 247 US cents per lb for Brazilian Naturals is the highest since May 1986.

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EU Imports
EU import data from Eurostat are available for JanuEU27 green non-decaffeinated coffee imports, January-December 2010 aryNovember 2010. Ex(extrapolated) in bags and percent trapolated to the full year, the 27 EU members imported a total of 51.975.027 OTHERS 12.199.820 BRAZIL bags (3.118.502 tonnes) of 14.963.069 23% GUATEMALA green non-decaffeinated 29% 959.364 2% coffee from all origins. This COLOMBIA is an increase of 3.77% 1.494.400 3% compared to the ETHIOPIA 50.084.952 bags (3.005.097 1.697.340 3% tonnes) imported in calenUGANDA dar year 2009. Significant 1.774.700 changes occurred in im3% ports from Vietnam (+11%), INDIA VIETNAM 1.827.885 9.325.780 Honduras (+15%), Indonesia 4% 18% PERU (-11%), India (+41%) and INDONESIA 2.339.053 HONDURAS 2.637.347 Colombia (-32%). Imports 5% 2.756.269 5% 5% from Brazil were relatively stable (+2.4%). As these figures are based on extrapolated data, they will be adjusted as the information for the full year becomes available.

Stocks

In close cooperation with the port and warehouse organisations in the major European coffee ports (Antwerp, Bremen, Hamburg, Genova/ Savona Vado, Le Havre and Trieste), ECF collects aggregate data on total green coffee stocks, both terminal market and non-terminal market stocks. The table below shows the development of total stock volumes in all surveyed ports on a monthly basis for the most recent available period of twelve months. The graph illustrates the development per port. Data are in bags.

ALL PORTS Jan 10 12.427.157 Feb 11.859.455 Mar 11.273.454 Apr 10.748.266 May 10.333.717 Jun 10.353.845 Jul 10.425.574 Aug 10.454.674 Sep 10.330.275 Oct 10.440.813 Nov 10.056.470 Dec 10.098.340 Jan 11 10.513.673

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Consumption
The latest ICO estiCoffee consumption in selected EU members 2007-2009 (in 1000 bags) mates indicate a total volume of con10.000 sumption in calendar 9.000 year 2009 of 128.8 8.000 million bags, down 7.000 slightly (-1.5%) from the 130.7 million 6.000 bags consumed in 5.000 2007 2008. This small 4.000 drop can be attrib2008 3.000 uted to the eco2009 2.000 nomic downturn. In 1.000 percentage terms, 0 falls in consumption of 10% or more were recorded in Poland (18.5%), Russia (15.7%), Ukraine (15.7%) and Sweden (-11%). The ICO notes that these figures do not take into account the use of stocks in the pipeline and that the reduction in consumption is likely to be overstated. Consumption in non-traditional countries is becoming more and more important. The share of the European Union decreased from 30.4% of world consumption in 2008 to 30% in 2009. The USA remained stable at 16.6%. The share of Brazil increased from 13.4% in 2008 to 14.1% in 2009. Japans share remained fairly stable: 5.4% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009.

Coffee consumption in selected countries 2007-2009 (in 1000 bags)

25.000

20.000

15.000 2007 10.000 2008 2009 5.000

It is not always appreciated that Brazil is now the second largest consuming country after the USA. The expectation is that in a few years time the Brazilian consumption will be at the same level as that of the USA.