Market Outlook 300712

Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in green taking cues from positive opening in the Asian markets. Stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the trading day on Friday from some relatively upbeat U.S. economic data as well as the latest news out of Europe. US markets posted steep gains for a second day Friday, reclaiming a weekly advance as investors anticipated moves by the ECB as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve. The rally was aided partly due to the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing that the pace of U.S. economic growth slowed by less than anticipated in the second quarter as GDP came in at 1.5% (Estimate: 1.2%) as compared to 2.0% in the first quarter. While the report points to continued economic growth, analysts noted that the slowdown still leaves the door open for further stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Indian shares fell ended in green but off their days high on Friday, as a fall in European markets after a rally the day before and domestic concerns on whether the government will speed up economic reforms prompted investors to take some intra-day profits off the table at higher levels.
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT
Global Indices
1.2 1.1 (0.9) (1.0) (0.1) (0.5) 0.4 1.0 2.1 0.8 1.3
Chg (%)
199.4 16,839 56.9 (53.4) (62.5) (6.0) (36.9) 85.8 58.9 66.0
(Pts)
5,100 5,888 6,358 6,977 6,931 8,878 7,911 5,224

(Close)
46.2 11,633 208.7 10,194
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,858 / 5,109 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,956 17,073 / 5,141 5,182 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 16,858 / 5,109 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,742 16,644 / 5,068 5,037 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 16,644 5,037 S1 16,742 5,068 PIVOT 16,858 5,109 R1 16,956 5,141 R2 17,073 5,182
Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs
1.5 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.0 (0.2) 0.1

Chg (%)
187.7 13,076 64.8 54.1 123.5 (6.1) 2.8

(Pts)
2,958 5,627 8,567 2,998 2,129

(Close)
382.2 19,275
News Analysis
RIL to invest US$1bn plan in Aerospace Crompton Greaves buys smart grid automation company ZIV Group KEC International secures orders worth `740cr Ashok Leyland to ink three overseas joint ventures Sun TV slumped over possible CBI graft charges 1QFY2013 Result Reviews NTPC, ICICI, Nestle, Maruti Suzuki, PNB, Bank of India, Union Bank, United Spirits, Central Bank, Indraprasth Gas, IRB Infra, CESC, Dena Bank, TVS Motor, HCC, Sarda Energy, Vesuvius India, Force Motors, Siyaram Silk Mills 1QFY2013 Result Previews GAIL, Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank, OBC, Corporation Bank, IOB, Syndicate Bank, Sadbhav Engineering, Indoco Remedies, PVR
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
INFY WIT IBN HDB

Advances / Declines
2.4 3.0 2.9 3.2
0.9 0.2 1.0 1.1

BSE
$39.6 $7.9 $34.9 $34.6

NSE
Advances Declines Unchanged

Volumes (` cr)
1,060 1,703 129
492 989 70
BSE NSE Net (930) 401 Sales 1,716 1,529 Net 1,451 136 MTD 2,604 (631) YTD 47,581 (7,326) Open Interest 11,405 22,494 Losers Company
Sun TV Network Pipavav Defence Union Bank Central Bank Oriental Bank
2,513 10,673
Net Inflows (July 26, 2012)

` cr FII MFs ` cr
Index Futures Stock Futures
Purch 2,823 799
Sales 3,753 398 Purch 3,167 1,665 Gainers
FII Derivatives (July 27, 2012)
Gainers / Losers
Company
Godrej Cons Gujarat Mnrl Tata Steel Tata Motors Great Eastern Sh
Price (`)
636 188 399 213 266
chg (%)
4.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.6
Price (`)
262 56 164 69 213
chg (%)
(11.2) (10.5) (7.9) (6.1) (5.9)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
RIL to invest US$1bn plan in Aerospace

Media reports suggest that Reliance Industries (RIL) is expected to invest approximately US$1bn over the coming few years to venture into Aerospace sector. During July 2012, the company had applied for an industrial license with the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion to design, develop and manufacture Aerospace equipment and components. We await further clarity on this matter from the company. Until then, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Crompton Greaves buys smart grid automation company ZIV Group

Crompton Greaves Friday said it has acquired smart grid automation company ZIV Group for an enterprise value equivalent to Euro 150 million. ZIV is a
provider of digital equipment for Grid Automation and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). ZIV operates in more than 50 countries, with major operations located in Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), India (Bangalore), Spain (Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao) and the USA (Chicago). Crompton Greaves plans
to finance the venture through 1:1 debt to equity and expects the acquisition will help the company better integrate its product offering. We maintain accumulate rating on the stock with a Target price of `128.
KEC International secures orders worth `740cr

KEC international has announced that it has won several orders across segments and geographies for a total consideration of `740cr. Transmission Business: `53cr order from Bangladesh for setting up of transmission line from Power grid of Bangladesh (PGCB) and the duration of the project is 18 months. SAE Towers has secured several orders for supply of towers, poles and hardwares to US, Canada, Mexico and Brazil. The total value of the orders is `180cr. Power Systems Business: `75cr order from Malaysia for establishment of 275kv substations on turnkey basis. Project duration is 20 months. Order for establishment of distribution lines (66/33/11kV) on turnkey basis in Nairobi for a consideration of `28cr. Project duration of 15 months. Railways Business: `192cr order for establishment of power supply, signaling and telecom systems on a turnkey basis in Turkmenistan. The project is won in a consortium for a total consideration of `588cr, of which KECs share is `192cr. Cables Business: `212cr orders for supply of Power and Telecom cables. KEC has geographically diversified business model which insulates itself from slowdown in any particular region as is evident from the geographically diversified order wins above. The company has also diversified into railways and waters, orders for which have started to pick up. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a Target price of `73.
Ashok Leyland to ink three overseas joint ventures

Ashok Leyland is in talks to sign at least three overseas joint ventures in the next two to three months as it looks to consolidate its presence in newer geographies.
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
The company is in the final stages of inking joint ventures in Indonesia, Chile and Nigeria, keeping the majority holding in each of these partnerships with itself. As per the reports while, Ashok Leyland will be exporting the kits, the foreign partners will be responsible for assembling and marketing the commercial vehicles. The company has zeroed down the above three geographies as it believes that they are not much affected by the global economic slowdown. Ashok Leyland saw its exports volume jump by 25% in FY2012 backed by strong demand for its products in Asia (markets like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka), Middle East and Africa. The company is targeting export volume growth of 15-18% in FY2013. At the CMP of `21, the stock is trading at attractive levels of 7.6x FY2014 earnings. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with target price of `30.
Sun TV slumped over possible CBI graft charges

Sun TV shares fell sharply on Friday over reports of possible graft charges against Companys executive chairman Kalanithi Maran. Fundamentally, Sun TV is a good stock with largest broadcasting network in South India. However, political concerns regarding Aircel-Maxis deal probe remains an overhang on the stock. We believe the stock will remain volatile in near term. Hence, we maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Result Reviews
NTPC (CMP: `153 / TP: 158/ Upside: -)
NTPC posted a 12.6% yoy growth in topline to `15,960cr aided by higher capacity and healthy PAF. PAF for the company is expected to have improved on a yoy basis due to better availability of coal. During the quarter, the company declared 1,160MW of capacity commercial (500MW at Farakka and 660MW at Sipat). OPM rose by 252bp yoy to 22.8%, resulting in a 26.7% yoy jump in operating profit to `3,631cr. NTPCs interest costs were higher by 33.5% yoy at `499cr. The companys tax rate fell by 383bp yoy to 23.3%. Net Profit rose by 20.4% yoy to `2,499cr. We maintain a neutral view on the stock.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 74,766 86,549 OPM (%) PAT EPS (` cr) (`) ROE (%) 13.0 13.5 P/E (x) 12.3 10.9 P/BV (x) 1.5 1.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 9.5 EV/Sales (x) 2.4 2.2
23.1 10,249 12.4 23.4 11,607 14.1
ICICI Bank (CMP: `928 / TP: `1,169 / Upside: 26.0%)

ICICI Bank reported strong performance for 1QFY2013, with 36.2% growth in Net profit, which was in-line with our estimates. Growth in earnings came largely on account of solid operating performance, with 32.0% yoy higher pre provisioning profits and was also aided by continued improvement on the asset quality front. During the quarter, advances for the bank increased by healthy 21.6% yoy (5.8% qoq), aided by a strong 45.6% yoy (15.0% qoq) growth in corporate book, 37.0% yoy (5.0% qoq) growth in SME book, and 37.0% yoy growth in Overseas book (excl. positive impact of INR depreciation growth in overseas and overall advances would have been 8.0% and 15.0% yoy, respectively). Deposits accretion remained healthy during the quarter with growth of 16.1% yoy (4.8% sequentially). Despite
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
healthy accretion in savings deposits, subdued current account deposits led the CASA ratio for the bank to decline to 40.6%. Domestic NIMs remained flat sequentially to 3.2%; while, Overseas NIMs improved by ~10bp to 1.6%. Noninterest income (excl. treasury) increased by only 14.0% yoy. Misc. other income for the bank grew to `254cr from `90cr in 1QFY2012, aided mainly by higher dividend income of ~`208cr. The banks asset quality improvement continued during this quarter as well, with both gross and net NPA ratio declining (though marginally), on a sequential basis. Provision coverage ratio remained healthy at 80.6%. The bank restructured additional advances worth ~`350cr during the quarter, in line with their guidance. As of 1QFY2013, their outstanding restructured book (which is stated post upgradation on one year of satisfactory performance) stood at `4,172cr. The management indicated that no major restructuring is in the pipeline. They also specified that based on their past experiences, slippages from restructured assets is ~5-6%. The banks substantial branch expansion in the past 3-4 years is expected to sustain a far more favourable deposit mix going forward. Moreover, a lower risk balance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning costs, which we believe will enable RoE of 15.5% by FY2014E (with further upside from financial leverage). At the CMP, the banks core banking business (after adjusting for subsidiaries) is trading at 1.48x FY2014E ABV (including subsidiaries, at 1.46x FY2014E ABV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,169.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E
Op. Inc (` cr) 22,356 27,157
NIM (%) 2.9 3.0
PAT (` cr) 7,915 9,451
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 1.4 1.4
ROE (x) 14.2 15.5
P/E (x) 13.2 11.1
P/ABV (x) 1.6 1.5
68.7 568.7 82.0 622.2
Nestle (CMP: `4,448 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Nestle India posted a 12.7% yoy growth in topline to `1,987cr, which was inline with our estimates. Topline growth was both on account of higher net realization and volume growth. While the exports to third parties rose by 56% yoy, exports to affiliates declined by 24.5%. OPM rose by 205bp yoy to 21.6% on account of 403bp yoy in gross margins to 54.6%. Gross margins improved on account of higher realization and product portfolio/ channel mix. Finance costs rose steeply to `22cr (vs. `0.6cr in 1QFCY2012 and `22cr in 2QCYCY2011) due to change in accounting policy in accordance in Indian Accounting Standards. Net Profit rose by 15% yoy to `246cr. We maintain a neutral view on the stock.
Y/E Dec CY2012E CY2013E Sales (` cr) 8,731 10,539 OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) 71.1 61.4 P/E (x) 38.9 31.1 P/BV (x) 23.4 16.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 23.7 19.0 EV/Sales (x) 4.9 4.0
21.0 1,103114.4 21.4 1,379143.0
Maruti Suzuki (CMP: `1,111 / TP: `1,291 / Upside: 16%)

Maruti Suzuki reported lower-than-expected results for 1QFY2013 owing to 57.3% yoy increase in other expenditure led by unfavorable forex impact on royalty payments (140bp yoy and 110bp sequentially) and sharp drop in other income (down 39% yoy and 62.2% sequentially).
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Net sales grew by a strong 27.5% yoy to `10,778cr which was 11.3% higher than our estimates driven by 21.3% yoy increase in net average realization. Net average realization improved on account of price increases and superior productmix (higher share of Swift, Dzire and Ertiga in volume-mix). Volumes during the quarter jumped 5.1% yoy led by 5% and 5.8% yoy growth in the domestic and export volumes, respectively. Domestic growth was led by the new launches, Swift, Dzire and Ertiga and also due to additional availability of diesel engines from Fiat. However, volume growth in the Mini segment continues to remain lackluster as the segment lacks diesel models which are in great demand currently. On the operating front, margins declined 230bp yoy (stable qoq) to 7.3% primarily due to 240bp increase in other expenditure. Other expenditure jumped 57.3% yoy due to foreign exchange impact on royalty payments (up 140bp yoy to 6.2%) and 100bp increase in other manufacturing expenses led by increase in power & fuel costs and forex losses. On the positive side, raw-material cost as a percentage of sales declined 20bp yoy (180bp qoq) due to price increases and cost reduction initiatives which negated the impact of yen appreciation (24% yoy and 7% qoq). As a result, operating profit declined 3% yoy (8.4% qoq) to `786cr. However, net profit was down sharply by 22.8% yoy (33.8% qoq) led by lower other income (down 39% yoy) and significant increase in interest expense. Going ahead, we believe that 2QFY2013 will be a difficult quarter for the company as volumes during the quarter will be impacted on account of the labor strike at the Manesar plant. A quick resolution to the problem will be a positive thing for the company; however, management is still in the process of accessing the damage to the facility and has not given any indication regarding the resumption of operations. If the shutdown at the plant continues until the end of next month we fear the company may not be able to ramp up in-time to meet the festival demand. The Manesar plant apart from accounting for ~35% of MSILs volumes also produces popular models like Swift and Dzire which currently are driving the sales of the company. We now expect the company to record volume growth of 6-7% (earlier 10%) in FY2013 and 11-12% in FY2014. We may further revise our numbers post our interaction with the management. At the CMP of `1,111, the stock is trading at 12.9x FY2014E earnings. Due to the recent fall in the stock price we recommend Buy on the stock.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 42,887 48,602 OPM (%) PAT EPS (` cr) (`) ROE (%) 12.2 13.8 P/E (x) 16.5 12.9 P/BV (x) 1.9 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 6.7 EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.4
5.6 1,951 67.5 6.5 2,488 86.1
PNB - (CMP: `716 / TP: `1,000 / Upside: 39.7%)

For 1QFY2013, PNB registered a moderate 12.7% yoy growth in Net profit, despite healthy growth of 18.6% yoy on the Net interest income front, mainly on back of increased NPA provisioning, considering the continued pressures on the asset quality being faced by the bank. For 1QFY2013, the banks business grew at healthy pace, with advances and deposits registering a growth of 21.3% and 18.9% yoy, respectively. Growth in advances was primarily on the back of increased lending to the agri and services
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
sector. Overall CASA deposits growth remained much lower at 9.8% yoy (savings deposits grew by 13.2% yoy, while current deposits declined by 2.4% yoy), compared to growth of 18.8% registered in overall deposits. Consequently, reported CASA ratio declined to 35.6%. Owing to banks conscious efforts to reduce short terms loans, the yields on advances improved by 12bp, which coupled with 43bp improvement in yields on investment (on MTM gains on fixed asset portfolio) aided the 10bp improvement in reported NIMs to 3.6%. Noninterest income (excluding treasury) grew by 13.3% yoy, aided by higher forex and CEB income. On the asset quality front, the gross and net NPA ratios increased on a sequential basis, by 41 and 16bp, respectively. Annualized slippage ratio remained at elevated level of 3.8%. Incremental slippages, though were spread across all sectors, but were concentrated in terms of size. Recoveries and upgrades were significantly higher at `1,466cr during the quarter, compared to average of ~`480cr since 1QFY2011. Going ahead, though the management expects elevated levels of slippages to continue in-line with slowing economy, but they also anticipate recoveries and upgradation to remain robust at ~`1,000cr per quarter. The bank restructured ~`1,239cr during the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `25,519cr, which is stated borrower-wise. The banks valuations are currently at low 0.8x FY2014 ABV compared to its eight year range of 1.01.6x and median of 1.4x, due to the asset quality concerns facing the sector. Taking into account the banks relatively lower cost of deposits than peers and valuations even below the lower end of its historical trading range, we currently have a positive stance on the bank. Hence, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of `1,000.
Op. Inc (` cr) 20,116 23,625
NIM (%) 3.2 3.3
PAT (` cr) 5,182 5,897
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 1.0 1.0
ROE (x) 18.2 18.0
P/E (x) 4.9 4.3
P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.8
152.8 847.6 173.9 999.9
Bank of India- (CMP: `291 / TP: ` 354 / Upside: 21.4%)

For 1QFY2013, Bank of India posted net profit growth of 71.5% yoy to `887cr, largely aided by write-back of provision on investment of `136cr compared to provision of `90cr in 1QFY2012. In fact growth in net interest income was limited to 11.0% (as NIMs were lower by 59bp), which was way below our estimates. During 1QFY2013, overall advances for the bank registered a healthy growth by 22.9% yoy. Domestic gross advances for the bank grew by 13.8% yoy (aided by strong growth in retail segment and higher corporate lending), while growth in international advances was 50.1% yoy (excluding positive impact of INR depreciation ~30%). On the deposits side, domestic CASA deposits grew by rather moderate 12.2% yoy, with saving account deposits growing at a slightly better pace of 14.4% yoy. Reported domestic CASA ratio improved by 156bp yoy to 32.0%. Domestic NIMs for the bank declined by 73bp sequentially to 2.3%, on back of interest reversal of ~`170cr on Air India restructuring (~22bp impact on NIMs) and full impact of 25bp reduction in base rate. Foreign NIMs for the bank declined marginally by 5bp sequentially to 1.5%. Consequently, overall NIM declined sequentially by 59bp to 2.3%. Non-interest income performance was strong, with a growth of 34.5% yoy, aided by higher recoveries from written-off
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
accounts (more than six times higher). During the quarter, the bank witnessed asset quality pressures, with 22bp sequential increase in both Gross and net NPA levels. PCR for the bank dipped sequentially by 332bp to 60.9%. Annualized slippage ratio came in at 2.8%, highest in the past three quarters. The management expects recoveries of 60-70% from the slippages of `1,747cr during the quarter. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `4,073cr, of which ~`3,000cr were on account of restructuring of Air India. As of 1QFY2013, the outstanding restructured book for the bank (which is stated borrower-wise and without upgradation on one year of satisfactory performance) stands at `20,589cr. As per the management, current restructuring pipeline is marginal. The banks asset quality pressures have resurfaced again during 1QFY2013, after having moderated in 2HFY2012. Currently, the stock trades at 0.7x of FY2014E ABV, which is relatively expensive to other better peers in terms of asset quality; hence, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `354.
Op. Inc (` cr) 13,159 15,851
NIM (%) 2.4 2.5
PAT (` cr) 3,507 4,087
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.8 0.8
ROE (x) 16.6 17.0
P/E (x) 5.0 4.3
P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.7
61.1 360.2 71.1 416.2
Union Bank (CMP: `164 / TP: `245 / Upside: 49.2%)

Net profit for 1QFY2013 for Union Bank was up 10.1% yoy to `512cr, in line with our estimates. Net interest income for 1QFY2013 rose by a moderate 14.6% yoy to `1,822cr. The margins declined by 25bp qoq on account of interest reversals during the quarter. The bank witnessed ~`1,600cr (3.7% annualised slippage rate) worth of slippages in 1QFY2013 of which `900cr were from non-priority sector. The slippages from its non-priority sector were mostly on account of chunky NPAs (Pharma company, Hospitality company, an EPC contractor and smaller accounts form power and steel segment). The bank expects to recover ~`400-500cr worth of these accounts by December end. The provisioning coverage ratio declined by over 300bp qoq to 59.0%. The bank restructured `1,641 worth of accounts in 1QFY2013 of which `1,200cr were on account of a single SEB. The banks total exposure to SEBs stands around `10,500cr of which `3,000cr have been restructured till now. The banks expects further more restructuring on account of SEBs in the forthcoming quarters. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `245.
Op. Inc (` cr) 10,299 12,227
NIM (%) 2.9 3.0
PAT (` cr) 2,327 2,725
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.8 0.8
ROE (x) 16.7 17.1
P/E (x) 4.2 3.6
P/ABV (x) 0.8 0.6
42.1 237.3 49.3 288.0
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
United Spirits (CMP: `721 / TP: Under Review / Upside: -)

United Spirits Ltd. (USL) announced good set of numbers for 1QFY2013 results. The companys net sales grew by modest 6.6% yoy `2,073cr despite only 2% increase in overall volumes which stood at 31.27mn cases. This was due to higher sales in the premium segment which increased by 17% yoy to 8mn cases an increase of 1.2mn cases yoy. EBITDA improved by only 3.3% yoy to `351cr but on qoq basis it was up by 79.7%.EBITDA margin contracted by 54bp yoy but improved significantly by 654qoq to 16.9% on back of better revenue mix during the quarter. PAT increased by 1,348% qoq and 5.3% yoy to `145cr, higher than EBITDA growth due to higher other income of `45cr during the quarter which included forex gain of `35cr. Adjusted for other income PAT was down 27.1% yoy to `100cr. The stock is currently under review. We will be coming out with a detailed report post management interaction.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 10,289 11,421 OPM (%) 13.5 14.3 PAT EPS (` cr) (`) 391 31.0 540 42.9 ROE (%) 8.1 10.3 P/E (x) 23.2 16.8 P/BV (x) 1.8 1.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 10.0 EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.4
Central Bank- (CMP: `69 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Central bank reported dismal performance on the operating front, with preprovisioning profits remaining flattish on a yoy basis. Despite poor operating performance, reported net profit grew by 19.6% yoy for 1QFY2013, largely aided by write-back of provision on investments of `39cr compared to provision of `108cr during 1QFY2012. Though NPA provisioning was higher by 31.3% yoy, PCR still remains one of lowest in the industry at 40.7%. During 1QFY2013, advances for the bank grew at healthy pace of 22.4% yoy, while growth in deposits remained muted at 6.0% yoy, partly due to banks conscious strategy to reduce high cost bulk deposits (bulk deposits and CDs as % to overall deposits at 31.3% in 1QFY2013 compared to 31.8% in 4QFY2012). Despite moderate growth of in saving deposits, growth in overall CASA deposit remained rather muted at 7.0% yoy, mainly on back of 14.6% yoy decline witnessed in current deposits, which was in-line with sectoral trends. CASA ratio witnessed an improvement of 31bp yoy to 32.9%. Reported NIM for the bank improved marginally by 5bp qoq. Strong growth of 29.1% yoy in fee income led to higher non-interest income (23.9% yoy). The bank continued to face asset quality pressures, with sequentially decline witnessed in both gross and net NPA ratios. Annualized slippages ratio for the quarter, came in at 3.9% compared to 10.9% in 4QFY2012 (50% of which was attributed to complete CBS switchover). Slippages at `1,448cr, though are lower compared to `3,543cr in 4QFY2012, but still remain elevated considering the average of `651cr over the past eight quarters till 3QFY2012. PCR improved slightly by 14bp qoq, but still remains one of the lowest in the industry at 40.7%. Additionally, the bank restructured loans worth `2,674cr during the quarter, (out of which ~`2,400cr pertained to discoms), taking its outstanding restructured book to `20,686cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV compared to its trading range of 0.61.7x with a median of 1.2x since its listing in 2007. However, we believe this is outweighed by the substantial concerns on its asset quality. While the
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
stock has corrected substantially over the past year, it is still trading higher than some of the other mid-size PSU banks with a better asset-quality outlook and return ratios. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Op. Inc (` cr) 7,181 8,365
NIM (%) 2.5 2.7
PAT (` cr) 1,353 1,752
EPS (`) 16.3
ABV (%) 94.9
ROA (x) 0.5 0.6
ROE (x) 12.7 15.1
P/E (x) 4.5 3.4
P/ABV (x) 0.8 0.7
21.8 107.6
Indraprasth Gas (CMP: `230 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Indraprasth Gas reported its 1QFY2013 results. Net sales grew by 41.5% yoy to `760cr which was driven by increases in both, sales as well as realistions. CNG volumes grew by 13.0% yoy while PNG volumes grew by 23.0% yoy during the quarter. EBITDA increased by 13.8% yoy to `180cr. However, EBITDA margin slipped 580bp yoy to 23.7% due to higher cost of gas purchases. Further, interest expense stood at `16cr in 1QFY2013, compared to `9cr in 1QFY2012. Hence, net profit grew by 6.2 % yoy to `85cr. We keep our rating and target price under review.
IRB Infra (CMP: `113 / TP: `166 / Upside: 47%)

For 1QFY2013, IRB Infrastructure (IRB) reported a healthy set of numbers above our and street expectations. The companys revenue came in much higher-thanexpectations led by strong execution in BOT projects. Further, stable EBITDA margins along with robust revenue growth led to better performance on the earnings front as well. IRBs top line witnessed growth of 22.3% yoy to `980cr, significantly ahead of our and street estimate of `869cr and `857cr respectively. This robust performance was on the back of maintaining healthy execution pace for under-construction projects. The E&C segments revenue grew by 25.7% yoy to `750cr and the BOT segment witnessed 12.6% growth to `262cr. On the EBITDAM front, IRBs margin came in at 43.4% a jump of 390bp on yoy basis, higher than our estimate of 42.5%. Stable input prices led to EBITDAM of 27.9% (excluding other income) for E&C segment. Interest cost came in at `154cr, registering a jump of 31.2%/2.7% on a yoy/qoq basis. At the earnings front, IRB reported growth of 5.7% to `142cr, above our estimate of `111cr on account of better-than-expected performance on the revenue and EBITDAM front. IRB is looking at both organic and inorganic options for growth with a threshold of 18% equity IRR and intends to allot 20% of consolidated cash flow post debt repayment towards acquisitions. IRB has also decided to utilize ~20% of post-tax consolidated profit towards dividend. IRB has a robust order book of `5,746cr (2.0x FY2013E E&C revenue, excluding O&M orders), which lends revenue visibility. Although a slowdown in order awarding by NHAI in road sector has been witnessed in 1QFY2013 IRB expects ordering activity to improve going ahead. As far as road
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
EPC contracts are concerned IRB will take a call to bid or not once draft agreement is out. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `166.
Sales (` cr)
OPM (%)
PAT EPS (` cr) (`)
ROE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Sales (x)
3,964 4,582
42.3 40.2
514 15.5 16.6 563 16.9 15.7
7.3 6.7
1.1 1.0
5.9 6.0
2.5 2.4
CESC (CMP: `283 / TP: 342/ Upside: 21%)

CESC posted a 25.5% yoy growth in its standalone topline to `1,404cr aided by better realization and 9% increase in sales volume to 2,430MU. Sales volume grew on account of better demand and was met by higher power purchase which rose by 45.6% yoy to 632MU. Power generation rose by 2% yoy, with PLF moving up by 240bp yoy to 96.4%. OPM stood at 19.5% down 309bp yoy on account of a steep increase in power purchase. The companys power purchase cost rose by 79.6% yoy to `343cr. On the retail business front ( carried out through subsidiary Spencers) average sales rose by 13.1% yoy to `1,151/sqft, while the same store sales were higher by 15.4% yoy at `1,201/sq ft. During the quarter, store level Ebitda for same stores, rose by 65.3% yoy to `43/sqft. Net Profit rose 12.6% yoy to `125cr. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `342.
Dena Bank- (CMP: `87 / TP: `107 / Upside: 22.8%)

For 1QFY2013, Dena Bank registered a healthy set of results with net profit growing by 42.0% yoy to `239cr, higher than our estimates primarily due to lower provisioning expenses than estimated by us. On the NII front, the performance was healthy with 37.1% yoy growth; the asset quality held up pretty well with slippages ratio of only 1.35% (healthy relative to what other banks have been reporting). The bank restructured `852cr during 1QFY2013 taking the outstanding restructured book to `4,255cr. The bank has grown its balance sheet at an aggressive pace over the last 3 quarters. The advances grew by 39.1% yoy, while deposits were up by 26.1% yoy. Owing to slower growth in CASA deposits, the CASA ratio declined by over 350bp to 30.9% as of 1QFY2013. Consequently, the NIMs of the bank declined by ~15bp qoq to 3.1%. At the CMP the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2014 ABV. We recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of `107.
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Op. Inc (` cr) 3,177 3,595
NIM (%) 2.8 2.8
PAT (` cr) 882 887
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.9 0.8
ROE (x) 18.9 16.4
P/E (x) 3.6 3.6
P/ABV (x) 0.6 0.6
25.2 143.7 25.3 165.0
TVS Motor (CMP: `38 / TP: `43 / Upside: 14%)

TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported better-than-expected results for 1QFY2013 led by upward revision in reported volumes (volumes revised upwards by 5.4%) and stronger than expected net average realization. TVSL reported better-than-expected net sales growth of 4.2% yoy (11.8% qoq) to `1,820cr mainly on account of upward revision in volumes by 5.4% and also due to strong growth in net average realization (up 8% yoy). Volume for 1QFY2013 (as per SIAM) witnessed a decline of 3% yoy (1.7% qoq) led by 10.1% and 4% yoy decline in motorcycle and scooter volumes, respectively. Two-wheeler demand offlate has witnessed moderation in growth and increase in competitive activity which has resulted in poor performance by TVSL. Management clarified that there is a difference in accounting treatment for monthly and quarterly volumes as for sales outside Tamil Nadu, especially in the North, TVSL bills vehicles to its subsidiary Sundaram Auto Components (SACL), which in turn sells vehicles to dealers. For monthly volumes, TVSL reports sales to dealers and by SACL to dealers. However, for quarterly volumes, sales by TVSL to SACL and to dealers is reported and hence the difference. On the operating front, EBITDA margin came in-line with our estimates at 5.9%, showing a decline of 80bp yoy (flat qoq) aided by increase in other expenditure primarily due to increase in advertising spends (on key brands like Wego, Star City, Sport and recently introduced Apache and Scooty Pep). Raw-material expenses on the other hand witnessed a decline of 180bp yoy (flat sequentially) during the quarter. As a result, operating profit declined 8.2% yoy (up 8.7% qoq). Net profit during the quarter registered a decline of 13.1% yoy (down 10.7% qoq) to `51cr; 14% above our estimates on account of strong top-line growth. We broadly retain our revenue and earnings estimates for TVSL. However, we expect a challenging environment for the company due to rising competition in the two-wheeler sector amidst moderation in demand. We believe that the upcoming launches, new motorcycle in the executive segment in 2QFY2013 and new scooter in 4QFY2013 will be the key for the company to regain volume momentum going ahead. At `38, TVSL is trading at 7x FY2014E earnings. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `43; valuing the stock at 8x FY2014E earnings of `5.4.
HCC (CMP: `17 / TP: - / Upside: -)

For 1QFY2013, HCC continued its poor performance on the numbers front as expected. HCCs top line came in line with our estimate. The companys dismal
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
performance at the EBITDAM level continued for second consecutive quarter. Despite poor show at EBITDAM, loss at earnings level was lower than our estimate owing to higher other income. On the top-line front, HCCs revenue declined by 8.4% yoy to `969cr in line with our estimate of `973cr. EBITDAM came in at dismal 7.1%, a dip of 590bp yoy and lower than our estimate of 10.6%. Further, HCCs management hopes to maintain EBITDAM at ~11% for FY2013. On the earnings front, HCC reported a loss of `31cr vs. profit of `3cr in 1QFY2012, against our estimate of loss of `61cr. Loss was lower than our estimate owing to jump in other income (includes `26cr from sale of land) and exceptional item of `9.5cr (reversal of interest cost for 4QFY2012). Interest cost witnessed an increase of 37.5% on yoy basis and came in at `128cr. The total outstanding order book stands at `15,020cr (excluding L1 orders of `3,439cr) with muted order inflow of ~`100cr during the quarter. Owing to concerns such as slowdown in order inflow, high debt and stretched working capital, we remain Neutral on the stock.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 4,239 4,522 OPM (%) 9.9 11.2 PAT EPS (` cr) (`) (137) (2.3) (58) (1.0) ROE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) 0.9 1.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 10.3 EV/Sales (x) 1.1 1.2
Sarda Energy (CMP: `116 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Sarda Energy reported its 1QFY2013 results. Net sales grew by 32.7% yoy to `337cr driven by increase in Steel segment revenues. Steel segment revenues increased by 28.4% yoy to `208cr, while Ferro Alloys segment revenues declined 62.6% yoy to `128cr. The companys EBITDA increased by 58.3% yoy to `58cr due to higher profits from Ferro Alloy segment. Ferro Alloy segment EBIT increased by 363.1% yoy to `40cr. The companys PAT increased by 42.5% yoy to `20cr in line with increase in operating profit. We keep our rating and target price under review.
Y/E Sales OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) 15.4 24.6 ROE (%) 7.3 10.9 P/E (x) 8.4 5.2 P/BV (x) 0.6 0.5 EV/EBITDA EV/Sales (x) 4.9 3.6 (x) 0.8 0.7
March (` cr) FY2013E1,070 FY2014E1,132
17.1 55 20.6 88
Vesuvius India (CMP `367/ TP - , Upside -)

For 2QCY2012, VIL reported muted top-line growth of 1.9% yoy to `139cr, 9.6% lower than our estimate of `154cr. The companys EBITDA margin contracted by 216bp yoy to 16.1% in 2QCY2012 on the back of higher employee cost & other expenses, however on a sequential basis, the margin expanded by 149bp due to declining raw material cost. Pressure on operating front led to decline in PAT by 12.4% yoy to 12.6cr, in line with our estimates of `12.2cr. Considering a slowdown in the steel industry, demand outlook remains a concern. Hence, we have further reduced our estimates for CY2012 and CY2013. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E Dec
CY2012E CY2013E
Sales (` cr)
560 611
OPM (%)
16.1 17.0
PAT (` cr)
50 58
EPS (`)
25 29
ROE (%)
31.3 31.6
P/E (x)
14.9 12.8
P/BV (x)
2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA EV/Sales (x)

7.5 6.4
(x)
1.2 1.1
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Force Motors (CMP: `442 / TP: Under Review / Upside: -)

Force Motors reported disappointing set of numbers for 1QFY2013. The company's top line grew by 17% yoy but 17% lower qoq and came in at `505cr, while 8% lower than our estimate of `549cr. EBITDA declined by 36% sequentially to `17.2cr, 39% lower than our estimate of `28cr. EBITDA margin fell consistently for second quarter and stood at 3.4%, 99 bps lower than previous quarter. Substantial amount of other income of `12cr, helped revive the bottom line which stood at `10.3cr, 37% lower sequentially, vis--vis our estimate of `13cr. We maintain our Buy recommendation with target price under review.
Y/E Sales OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA EV/Sales (x) (x)
March (` cr)
FY2013E 2428 FY2014E 2854
5.2 57 6.2 100
43 76
4.8 7.8
10.2 5.8
0.5 0.5
2.0 1.5
0.1 0.1
Siyaram Silk Mills (CMP: `282 / TP: Under Review / Upside: - %)

Siyaram Silk Mills (SSM) announced decent set of numbers for 1QFY2013 results. The companys net sales grew by modest 13.5% yoy `206cr. Despite modest revenue growth, EBITDA increased by only 5.3% yoy to `23cr on the back of margin contraction. EBITDA margin contracted by 87bp yoy to 11.2%. PAT increased by 8.2% yoy to `10cr, higher than EBITDA growth due to higher other income during the quarter, which increased by 77.8% yoy to `3cr. We continue to maintain a Buy recommendation on the stock but the target price is under review. We will revise our estimates and target price post an interaction with management.
Y/E Sales OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) 15.4 24.6 ROE (%) 7.3 10.9 P/E (x) 8.4 5.2 P/BV (x) 0.6 0.5 EV/EBITDA EV/Sales (x) 4.9 3.6 (x) 0.8 0.7
March (` cr) FY2013E1,070 FY2014E1,132
17.1 55 20.6 88
Result Previews
GAIL (CMP: `345 / TP: - / Upside: -)
GAIL is expected to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the companys top-line to grow by 20.7% yoy to `10,705cr. However, operating margin is expected to contract 670bp yoy to 11.1%. On the bottom-line front, we expect GAIL to report a decrease of 23.0% yoy to `758cr due to decrease in operating margin. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 50,472 55,502 OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) 19.0 17.2 P/E (x) 9.7 9.3 P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.0 4.1 EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.6
15.2 4,494 35.4 15.6 4,697 37.0
Bank of Baroda (CMP: `650 / TP: `877 / Upside: 35.0%)

Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a strong 25.5% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to `2,883cr. Non-interest income is expected to grow by 25.9% yoy to `807cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 28.2% yoy to `1,418cr. However,
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
provisioning expenses are also expected to be higher significantly by 52.6% yoy to `616cr. Consequently, Net profit growth is expected to be 8.3% to `1,118cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `877.
Op. Inc (` cr) 16,157 19,475
NIM (%) 2.7 2.7
PAT (` cr) 5,102 6,114
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 1.0 1.1
ROE (x) 17.3 18.1
P/E (x) 5.3 4.4
P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.7
123.7 762.1 148.3 877.3
Allahabad Bank (CMP: `129 / TP: `153 / Upside: 18.4%)

Allahabad Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a growth of 15.2% yoy in its net interest income to `1,354cr. Even, on the non-interest income front the bank is expected to report a moderate growth of 12.1% yoy to `321cr. Operating expenses are expected to be higher by 25.7% yoy to `719cr, provisioning expenses are expected to rise by a substantial 35.4% yoy to `433cr. Net profit is expected to de-grow by 3.6% yoy to `403cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `153.
Op. Inc (` cr) 7,467 8,685
NIM (%) 3.2 3.3
PAT (` cr) 1,875 2,075
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 1.0 0.9
ROE (x) 18.1 17.4
P/E (x) 3.4 3.1
P/ABV (x) 0.6 0.5
37.5 221.0 41.5 254.5
OBC (CMP: `213 / TP: `269 / Upside: 26.4%)

Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a moderate 9.7% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to `1,117cr. Non-interest income is expected to de-grow slightly by 1.7% yoy to `318cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 15.7% yoy to `626cr. Provisioning expenses are also expected to be higher by 19.0% yoy to `374cr. Consequently, Net profit is expected to de-grow by 17.2% to `294cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `269.
Op. Inc (` cr) 6,497 7,533
NIM (%) 2.8 2.8
PAT (` cr) 1,559 1,865
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.8 0.9
ROE (x) 13.3 14.3
P/E (x) 4.0 3.3
P/ABV (x) 0.5 0.5
53.4 391.2 63.9 449.0
Corporation Bank (CMP: `391 / TP: `465 / Upside: 18.9%)

Corporation Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 23.0% yoy to `870cr. The operating profit of the bank is expected to grow at a strong pace of 27.7% yoy to `736cr. Net Profit growth is expected remain flattish on a yoy basis to `353cr, mainly due to increase in tax expenses to `151cr compared to `58cr in1QFY2012.
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `465.
Op. Inc (` cr) 5,294 6,070
NIM (%) 2.3 2.3
PAT (` cr) 1,575 1,631
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.9 0.8
ROE (x) 17.7 16.1
P/E (x) 3.7 3.6
P/ABV (x) 0.6 0.5
106.3 622.0 110.1 716.0
IOB (CMP: `70 / TP: `91 / Upside: 30.6%)

Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) is slated to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a healthy 17.0% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to `1,389cr. Non-interest income is also expected to grow by 17.3% yoy to `398cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 16.0% yoy to `840cr. However, provisioning expenses are expected to be decline by 15.0% yoy to `463cr. Consequently, Net profit is expected to grow by 59.0% to `327cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.4x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `91.
Op. Inc (` cr) 7,578 8,662
NIM (%) 2.6 2.7
PAT (` cr) 1,373 1,796
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.6 0.7
ROE (x) 12.1 14.3
P/E (x) 4.1 3.1
P/ABV (x) 0.5 0.4
17.2 142.2 22.5 159.0
Syndicate Bank (CMP: `92 / TP: `114 / Upside: 23.4%)

Syndicate Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 23.7% yoy to `1,374cr. The operating profit of the bank is expected to grow at a healthy pace of 18.6% yoy to `881cr. Net Profit is expected to de-grow by 9.3% on a yoy basis to `311cr, mainly due to 39.2% yoy growth in provisioning expenses and increase in tax expenses to `115cr compared to `73cr in1QFY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `114.
Op. Inc (` cr) 7,176 8,299
NIM (%) 3.1 3.1
PAT (` cr) 1,513 1,753
EPS (`)
ABV (%)
ROA (x) 0.8 0.8
ROE (x) 17.6 17.8
P/E (x) 3.7 3.2
P/ABV (x) 0.6 0.5
25.1 152.8 29.1 175.0
Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: `138 / TP: `182 / Upside: 32%)

We expect Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) to post decent numbers in 1QFY2013. The companys revenue is expected to increase by 4.5% to `640cr. EBITDA margin is expected to witness a dip of 80bp yoy to 10.3%. On the earnings front, the company is expected to post a jump of 20.6% yoy to `41cr. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a target price of `182.
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Sales (` cr) 2,789 3,147
OPM (%) 10.6 10.7
PAT (` cr) 127
EPS (`) 8.4
ROE (%) 15.0 15.6
P/E (x) 16.4 13.2
P/BV (x) 2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 7.6
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.8
157 10.4
Indoco Remedies (CMP: `55 / Target: `82 / Upside: 49% )

Indoco Remedies is expected to report top-line growth of 36.2%yoy to `171cr. OPM is expected to expand by 240bp yoy to 15.0%, driven by growth in domestic formulation sales. As a result, net profit is expected to increase by 21.8% yoy to `14.3cr on the back of improvement in OPM. We maintain our Buy with a target price of `82.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 685 873 OPM (%) 15.2 15.2 PAT (` cr) 68 82 EPS (`) 7.4 8.9 ROE (%) 15.9 16.3 P/E (x) 7.4 6.2 P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 4.6 EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.7
PVR (CMP: `160 / TP: - / Upside: -)

PVR is slated to announce its 1QFY2013 results. Top-line is expected to grow by 24% yoy to `145cr. On the operating front, OPM is expected to decline by 133bp yoy to 15.2% mainly due to impact of service tax on rent. The company is expected to report 32% yoy growth in Net Profit to `5cr. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 625 732 OPM (%) 16.5 15.7 PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) 11.9 12.0 P/E (x) 13.5 12.1 P/BV (x) 1.5 1.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 5.8 EV/Sales (x) 1.0 0.8
36 11.9 40 13.3
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Bank of Baroda Ltd (30/07/2012)
Particulars (` cr) Net profit 1QFY13E 1,147 1QFY12 1,033 y-o-y (%) 11 4QFY12 1,518 q-o-q (%) (24)
Gail Ltd - (30/07/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 1QFY13E 11,188 1,507 13.5 894 1QFY12 8,867 1,577 17.8 985 (9) y-o-y (%) 26 (4) 4QFY12 10,455 998 9.5 483 85 q-o-q (%) 7 51
Cipla Ltd - (31/07/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 1QFY13E 1,871 435 23.2 309 1QFY12 1,550 370 23.9 253 22 y-o-y (%) 21 18 4QFY12 1,814 399 22.0 292 6 q-o-q (%) 3 9
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
IDBI Bank Ltd (31/07/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net profit 1QFY13E 502 1QFY12 335 y-o-y (%) 50 4QFY12 771 q-o-q (%) (35)
Jaiprakash Associates - (31/07/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 1QFY13E 3,387 814 24.0 107 0.0 107 0 1QFY12 3,142 y-o-y (%) 8 #DIV/0! 4QFY12 4,023 1,056 26.2 284 (62) q-o-q (%) (16) (23)
Titan Industries Ltd - (31/07/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 1QFY13E 2,437 225 9.2 164 1QFY12 2,021 185 9.2 148 11 y-o-y (%) 21 22 4QFY12 2,281 237 10.4 145 13 q-o-q (%) 7 (5)
Federal Bank Ltd (01/08/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net profit 1QFY13E 198 1QFY12 146 y-o-y (%) 36 4QFY12 238 q-o-q (%) (17)
Adani Power Ltd - (01/08/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 1QFY13E 1,444 347 24.0 (65) 1QFY12 819 410 50.1 177 (137) y-o-y (%) 76 (15) 4QFY12 998 96 9.6 (290) (78) q-o-q (%) 45 261
Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd - (01/08/2012)

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 1QFY13E 673 461 68.5 326 1QFY12 516 363 70.3 254 28 y-o-y (%) 30 27 4QFY12 617 466 75.5 339 (4) q-o-q (%) 9 (1)
Economic and Political News

EGoM to meet next week to review monsoon situation Governments public debt up 4.9% in Apr-Jun 2012 Monsoon about 21-22% below average until July end
Corporate News
Deccan Chronicle promoters pledge 54% stake to Future Cap RCom accuses Bharti Airtel of blocking international calls Suzlon redeems FCCBs worth `1,993cr USFDA lifts ban on Dr Reddy's Mexico plant
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Result Calendar
Date July 30, 2012 July 31, 2012 August 01, 2012 August 02, 2012 August 03, 2012 August 04, 2012 August 06, 2012 August 07, 2012 August 08, 2012 August 09, 2012 August 10, 2012 August 11, 2012 Company GAIL, Bank of Baroda, Oriental Bank, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Corporation Bank, Syndicate Bank, Sadbhav Engg., SpiceJet, Jyoti Structures, Indoco Remedies, JK Tyre, Subros Cipla, Titan Inds., Jaiprakash Asso., Petronet LNG, IDBI Bank, Bhushan Steel, Ipca labs, Hexaware, KEC International, Dishman Pharma Mundra Port, Adani Power, Federal Bank, PVR, CEAT Cummins India, Mahindra Satyam, Glenmark Pharma., Madras Cements Sun TV Network, Marico, United Bank, BGR Energy , Graphite India, Abbott India Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., UCO Bank, Prakash Industries, Relaxo SAIL, DLF, Cadila Healthcare, Andhra Bank, Britannia, LMW, PTC India Tata Chemicals, MOIL, Aurobindo Pharma, Punj Lloyd Bharti Airtel, M&M, Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., ABB, Goodyear, HEG IOC, Adani Enterp., Ranbaxy, HPCL, GMR Infra., Motherson Sumi, GSPL, ITNL, Apollo Tyres, Alembic Pharma, Hitachi, ITD Cementation Siemens, BPCL ONGC
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Unemployment change (000's) RBI Repo rate RBI Cash Reserve ratio RBI Reverse Repo rate PMI Manufacturing Imports YoY% Exports YoY% PMI Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing FOMC rate decision Initial Jobless claims BOE Announces rates ECB announces interest rates PMI Services Change in Nonfarm payrolls Unnemployment rate Industrial Production (YoY) Industrial Production (YoY) Consumer Price Index (YoY) Industrial Production YoY Exports YoY% Unit Period Bloomberg Data Last Reported July 30, 2012 July 31, 2012 Euro Zone US Germany India India India August 01, 2012 Germany India India UK China US August 02, 2012 US UK Euro Zone August 03, 2012 Germany US US August 07, 2012 August 09, 2012 UK China China August 10, 2012 India China
Estimated (21.60) 61.40 7.00 8.00 4.75 7.00 43.30 --48.40 50.50 0.25 370.00 0.50 0.75 49.70 100.00 8.20 ------
Value S.A./ 1985=100 Thousands % % % Value % Change % Change Value Value % Thousands % Ratio % Value Thousands % % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change
Jul F Jul Jul Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul F Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug 1 Jul 28 Aug 2 Aug 2 Jul F Jul Jul Jun Jul Jul Jun Jul
(21.60) 62.00 7.00 8.00 4.75 7.00 43.30 (7.36) (4.16) 48.60 50.20 0.25 353.00 0.50 0.75 49.70 80.00 8.20 (1.60) 9.50 2.20 2.40 11.30
Market Strategy
July 30, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 5.9 7.5 7.4 9.8 9.4 8.5 7.6 8.2 9.2 8.0 6.7 6.1 5.3
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 3.7 3.4 9.5 6.0 4.3 2.5 2.7 1.0 2.4
Jun-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Aug-11
Apr-12
Jan-12
(2.0)
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
(0.9)
(4.0) (6.0)
(3.2)
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

(%) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 9.4 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.5 7.7 6.9 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.3
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 Mfg. PMI Services PMI
Jul-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Oct-11
Nov-11
Jun-12
Jun-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Mar-12
Aug-11
Apr-12
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%) 75.0 60.0 45.0 30.0 15.0 0.0 Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

(%) 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR
Jul-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
May-12 Jun-12
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Aug-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Sep-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
(15.0)
May-12
Source: RBI, Angel Research
May-12
Aug-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jun-11
Jan-12
Oct-11
Apr-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
May-12
Jul-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) Agri / Agri Chemical Rallis United Phosphorus Auto & Auto Ancillary Amara Raja Batteries Apollo Tyres Ashok Leyland Automotive Axle Bajaj Auto Bharat Forge Bosch India CEAT Exide Industries FAG Bearings Hero Motocorp JK Tyre Maruti Motherson Sumi Subros Tata Motors TVS Motor Capital Goods ABB* BGR Energy BHEL Blue Star Crompton Greaves Jyoti Structures KEC International LMW Thermax Sell Neutral Neutral Neutral Accumulate Buy Buy Buy Neutral 776 268 208 184 114 37 57 1,580 481 498 128 67 73 1,992 16,437 1,936 50,971 1,656 7,342 303 1,459 1,780 5,727 8,760 4,195 47,801 3,047 12,691 2,622 6,686 2,369 5,514 10,023 4,837 43,757 3,328 14,096 2,801 7,200 2,727 5,559 7.6 11.0 19.4 5.4 7.0 10.6 8.5 11.7 8.9 7.5 11.0 19.8 6.9 8.5 11.0 8.8 11.7 9.6 18.2 30.1 25.7 9.6 6.5 10.9 10.6 143.4 26.9 20.7 32.4 23.9 16.2 9.1 13.4 12.2 166.0 28.4 42.6 8.9 8.1 19.2 17.6 3.4 5.4 11.0 17.9 37.4 8.3 8.7 11.3 12.5 2.8 4.7 9.5 16.9 5.7 1.6 1.7 3.8 1.9 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 5.1 1.4 1.5 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 14.4 18.4 22.7 20.7 11.1 13.7 25.9 17.4 18.4 14.6 17.6 18.3 29.7 14.2 14.9 24.0 18.4 17.1 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.0 Buy Buy Buy Accumulate Accumulate Buy Accumulate Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Accumulate 291 79 21 391 1,582 291 8,705 95 127 1,450 2,007 89 688 1,111 162 29 213 38 345 100 30 430 1,698 372 9,206 164 149 1,560 2,428 135 824 1,297 216 36 305 43 2,486 4,004 5,667 591 45,779 6,784 27,331 325 10,757 2,409 40,074 365 42,220 32,088 6,355 172 1,796 2,715 13,699 14,920 993 21,285 7,173 9,106 5,067 5,899 1,505 26,097 7,950 35,881 43,264 23,342 1,244 7,545 3,041 15,184 16,850 1,140 23,927 7,998 10,255 5,631 6,771 1,747 29,963 8,904 40,746 49,033 26,366 1,402 8,301 15.3 10.5 9.0 11.6 18.2 16.3 19.4 8.0 16.0 17.7 15.0 5.5 10.0 5.6 7.8 8.4 13.0 6.2 15.3 10.2 9.3 11.5 18.3 16.5 19.3 7.6 17.0 18.0 15.3 6.0 10.0 6.5 8.2 8.3 12.9 6.1 29.2 12.1 2.2 36.9 108.5 22.3 410.2 39.4 7.4 111.5 139.5 25.1 47.5 67.8 13.3 4.5 40.7 4.9 32.8 13.3 2.8 43.0 121.3 26.6 460.3 41.0 9.1 130.0 151.8 38.6 53.2 86.5 18.0 5.1 43.8 5.4 10.0 6.6 9.8 10.6 14.6 13.1 21.2 2.4 17.2 13.0 14.4 3.5 14.5 16.4 12.2 6.4 5.2 7.7 8.9 6.0 7.8 9.1 13.0 11.0 18.9 2.3 13.9 11.2 13.2 2.3 12.9 12.8 9.0 5.6 4.9 7.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.1 6.0 2.5 4.7 0.4 3.1 2.7 6.8 0.4 2.9 1.9 2.9 0.6 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.6 1.8 4.9 2.1 3.9 0.4 2.6 2.2 5.2 0.4 2.5 1.7 2.3 0.6 1.5 1.2 26.0 19.7 13.3 21.2 46.1 21.0 22.1 18.8 19.0 22.8 54.6 12.1 21.3 12.2 26.2 9.9 36.0 18.8 23.3 18.4 15.6 21.3 41.3 21.0 20.4 16.5 20.2 21.7 44.3 16.4 20.5 13.9 28.4 11.0 33.1 18.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.8 1.0 2.6 0.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.5 0.9 2.3 0.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 Neutral Buy 122 121 183 2,374 5,575 1,432 8,191 1,647 8,764 14.7 16.5 14.7 16.5 7.0 17.1 8.0 18.3 17.4 7.1 15.3 6.6 3.7 1.2 3.1 1.0 22.8 17.5 22.3 16.2 1.7 0.8 1.4 0.7 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
56,713 191,303 211,004
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) Cement ACC Ambuja Cements India Cements J K Lakshmi Cements Madras Cements Shree Cements UltraTech Cement Construction Ashoka Buildcon Consolidated Co Hind. Const. IRB Infra ITNL IVRCL Infra Jaiprakash Asso. Larsen & Toubro Madhucon Proj Nagarjuna Const. Patel Engg. Punj Lloyd Sadbhav Engg. Simplex Infra Financials Allahabad Bank Andhra Bank Axis Bank Bank of Baroda Bank of India Bank of Maharashtra Canara Bank Central Bank Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Neutral 129 100 998 650 291 45 348 69 153 1,373 877 354 47 421 6,450 5,618 41,348 25,435 16,717 2,662 15,421 5,068 7,467 5,225 15,961 16,157 13,159 3,471 11,334 7,181 8,685 6,024 19,583 19,475 15,851 3,889 13,629 8,365 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.2 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.5 3.1 2.3 2.7 37.5 22.7 117.3 123.7 61.1 9.0 75.4 16.3 41.5 25.4 143.1 148.3 71.1 11.5 85.1 21.8 3.4 4.4 8.5 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.1 4.0 7.0 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 18.1 16.0 20.1 17.3 16.6 13.7 15.2 12.7 17.4 15.8 20.8 18.1 17.0 15.5 15.3 15.1 Buy Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy 204 16 17 113 168 42 70 1,320 34 36 78 47 135 207 273 166 265 61 88 1,553 56 182 265 1,076 297 1,013 3,771 3,262 1,131 14,853 80,884 252 915 547 1,563 2,033 1,025 2,014 2,489 4,239 3,821 6,619 5,510 15,259 60,474 2,206 5,453 3,609 11,592 2,789 6,732 2,293 2,755 4,522 4,582 7,925 6,722 17,502 69,091 2,502 6,169 3,836 12,993 3,147 7,837 22.4 7.0 11.1 42.3 23.8 8.8 25.7 12.1 10.7 8.1 13.1 8.4 10.6 8.1 22.4 7.8 11.8 40.2 23.3 9.0 24.7 11.5 10.7 8.5 13.1 8.4 10.7 8.4 22.6 3.0 (1.8) 15.0 22.9 2.5 4.2 79.7 4.6 1.6 14.0 1.8 8.4 23.5 26.7 4.0 (0.8) 16.9 27.8 4.6 5.0 85.4 4.7 1.9 14.6 3.2 10.4 29.4 9.0 5.4 (9.3) 7.6 7.3 16.7 16.5 16.6 7.4 21.7 5.6 26.1 16.0 8.8 7.7 4.0 (21.4) 6.7 6.1 9.3 14.0 15.5 7.3 18.5 5.4 14.7 13.0 7.1 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.3 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.9 0.7 11.4 8.7 (9.5) 16.1 15.5 3.4 8.5 16.3 5.2 1.8 6.3 2.0 15.0 9.6 11.9 10.8 (4.7) 15.8 16.4 5.8 9.3 15.1 5.0 2.1 6.1 3.4 15.6 11.0 2.4 0.3 1.3 2.6 2.2 0.7 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 2.7 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.1 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 Neutral Neutral Neutral Reduce Neutral Neutral Neutral 1,292 181 79 86 158 3,045 1,628 79 24,262 27,781 2,422 1,055 3,766 10,608 44,616 11,096 10,205 4,364 1,938 3,444 5,519 20,167 12,607 11,659 4,791 2,246 3,786 6,293 22,752 21.0 24.6 18.9 19.1 25.5 24.5 21.7 21.7 24.2 19.1 20.1 24.9 23.7 23.0 76.1 10.8 9.2 15.2 14.6 156.6 90.8 82.9 12.0 11.4 16.8 17.1 225.3 107.8 17.0 16.7 8.5 5.7 10.9 19.4 17.9 15.6 15.0 6.9 5.1 9.3 13.5 15.1 3.2 3.5 0.7 0.8 1.6 4.8 17.9 2.9 3.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.1 15.1 19.3 19.7 8.0 13.8 15.6 22.3 19.3 19.8 9.5 14.0 16.0 26.0 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.7 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) Financials Corporation Bank Dena Bank Federal Bank HDFC HDFC Bank ICICI Bank IDBI Bank Indian Bank IOB J & K Bank LIC Housing Finance Oriental Bank Punjab Natl.Bank South Ind.Bank St Bk of India Syndicate Bank UCO Bank Union Bank United Bank Vijaya Bank Yes Bank FMCG Asian Paints Britannia Colgate Dabur India GlaxoSmith Con* Godrej Consumer HUL ITC Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral 3,505 470 1,135 118 2,653 636 465 254 633 33,617 5,612 15,430 20,608 11,158 21,656 100,459 199,273 11,198 5,835 3,018 5,878 3,124 5,973 25,350 29,588 13,184 6,824 3,429 6,799 3,663 7,000 28,974 34,063 16.3 6.3 20.9 16.8 17.1 18.4 13.9 35.4 16.3 6.7 22.3 17.0 17.6 18.6 13.9 35.8 121.0 20.7 34.6 4.2 103.0 22.8 14.3 9.3 144.8 27.5 41.0 4.9 123.3 27.2 16.5 10.9 29.0 22.7 32.8 28.5 25.8 27.9 32.6 27.3 24.2 17.1 27.7 24.1 21.5 23.4 28.2 23.4 9.7 8.9 30.2 10.3 7.9 7.7 19.4 8.8 7.6 6.6 22.9 8.4 6.4 6.2 14.9 7.2 37.4 42.7 99.5 39.3 34.0 31.3 70.9 35.2 35.3 44.3 94.1 42.0 32.9 38.4 59.8 33.8 2.9 0.9 5.0 3.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 6.5 2.5 0.8 4.3 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.2 5.5 Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Accumulate Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Buy 391 87 401 674 584 928 85 174 70 905 249 213 716 23 1,941 92 67 164 53 52 353 465 107 1,169 109 197 91 979 275 269 1,000 2,443 114 245 78 453 5,797 3,056 6,852 100,650 137,645 106,688 10,879 7,495 5,579 4,389 12,579 6,217 24,280 2,565 130,263 5,547 4,477 9,032 1,926 2,559 12,502 5,294 3,177 2,736 7,340 21,936 22,356 8,152 6,294 7,578 2,525 1,867 6,497 20,116 1,514 67,783 7,176 5,642 10,299 3,599 2,579 3,255 6,070 3,595 3,165 8,805 27,454 27,157 9,907 7,191 8,662 2,858 2,338 7,533 23,625 1,717 78,208 8,299 6,438 12,227 4,212 3,028 4,228 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 4.4 2.9 1.9 3.4 2.6 3.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 4.4 3.0 2.1 3.4 2.7 3.5 2.4 2.8 3.4 2.7 3.6 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.3 3.0 106.3 25.2 49.3 31.5 28.7 68.7 19.7 40.6 17.2 175.8 21.1 53.4 152.8 4.0 226.0 25.1 16.4 42.1 18.2 8.8 34.2 110.1 25.4 57.4 37.8 36.0 82.0 24.1 44.9 22.5 183.1 28.5 63.9 173.9 4.2 264.2 29.1 17.6 49.3 22.3 11.6 42.7 3.7 3.5 8.1 21.4 20.4 13.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 5.2 11.8 4.0 4.7 5.7 8.6 3.7 4.1 3.9 2.9 5.9 10.3 3.6 3.4 7.0 17.8 16.2 11.3 3.5 3.9 3.1 4.9 8.7 3.3 4.1 5.4 7.4 3.2 3.8 3.3 2.4 4.5 8.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 4.3 3.9 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 3.8 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.8 17.7 18.9 13.9 34.8 20.7 14.2 13.6 18.1 12.1 19.3 17.5 13.3 18.2 20.5 17.7 17.6 16.2 16.7 15.0 11.1 23.3 16.2 16.4 14.5 32.2 22.0 15.5 15.0 17.4 14.3 17.5 20.4 14.3 18.0 18.5 18.1 17.8 15.4 17.1 16.2 13.3 23.8 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) FMCG Marico Nestle* Tata Global IT HCL Tech Hexaware Infosys Infotech Enterprises KPIT Cummins Mahindra Satyam Mindtree Mphasis NIIT Persistent TCS Tech Mahindra Wipro Media D B Corp HT Media Jagran Prakashan PVR Sun TV Network Metals & Mining Bhushan Steel Coal India Electrosteel Castings Hind. Zinc Hindalco JSW Steel MOIL Monnet Ispat Reduce Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Buy 470 354 18 117 117 644 261 320 429 22 142 125 296 447 9,983 223,410 625 49,309 22,486 14,369 4,389 2,058 11,408 68,841 1,984 12,446 83,212 38,740 1,007 3,115 13,773 74,509 2,074 13,538 91,057 41,459 1,091 3,748 31.0 25.3 11.2 56.1 9.0 17.3 56.6 22.1 30.0 25.3 12.6 56.6 9.9 17.0 56.9 25.1 53.7 24.1 2.0 15.2 13.7 79.9 29.4 59.1 60.8 26.1 2.7 16.5 18.1 89.4 31.9 66.8 8.8 14.7 8.9 7.7 8.6 8.1 8.9 5.4 7.7 13.5 6.7 7.1 6.5 7.2 8.2 4.8 1.2 4.0 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.8 1.1 3.3 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.7 15.3 30.4 4.2 21.7 7.9 10.4 19.0 15.6 14.9 26.8 5.5 19.8 9.6 10.6 18.2 15.3 2.6 2.3 0.5 2.1 0.5 0.8 2.2 1.4 2.2 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.0 Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral 198 84 88 161 262 236 113 125 3,632 1,981 2,791 417 10,311 1,597 2,111 1,521 625 2,002 1,785 2,263 1,698 732 2,296 22.9 15.2 22.6 16.5 77.1 24.2 15.2 23.1 15.7 76.7 11.1 7.3 6.2 11.9 18.9 13.9 8.1 6.4 13.3 22.1 17.8 11.5 14.4 13.5 13.9 14.2 10.4 13.7 12.1 11.9 3.4 1.2 3.5 1.3 3.5 2.9 1.1 3.0 1.2 3.1 20.2 11.2 20.7 11.9 27.7 22.1 11.2 23.9 12.0 28.3 2.2 0.5 2.1 1.1 4.6 1.9 0.3 1.8 0.9 3.9 Accumulate Accumulate Buy Accumulate Neutral Neutral Accumulate Neutral Buy Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Buy 517 116 2,149 166 121 84 623 388 38 366 1,226 717 334 585 132 2,530 187 708 52 398 1,304 420 35,815 3,448 123,394 1,853 2,157 9,926 2,534 8,157 621 1,463 239,906 9,141 82,248 24,400 1,921 39,151 1,889 2,149 7,492 2,341 5,704 1,162 1,193 61,046 6,282 43,492 27,049 2,178 41,743 2,065 2,331 8,038 2,513 6,009 1,304 1,278 67,507 6,477 48,332 18.6 20.6 31.6 18.0 15.6 17.0 18.6 18.6 14.8 25.6 29.3 17.5 19.4 17.5 20.0 31.9 17.5 14.8 16.3 17.1 17.7 15.1 24.3 29.1 16.5 19.3 41.1 10.4 161.9 18.0 10.7 8.1 66.5 36.0 7.1 42.6 67.3 82.9 25.1 45.0 11.4 174.5 19.7 11.2 8.3 70.8 37.1 8.8 44.3 72.4 85.0 28.0 12.6 11.2 13.3 9.2 11.3 10.4 9.4 10.8 5.3 8.6 18.2 8.7 13.3 11.5 10.2 12.3 8.5 10.8 10.1 8.8 10.5 4.3 8.3 16.9 8.4 11.9 2.8 2.7 3.2 1.3 2.4 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.5 5.8 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.8 1.3 4.8 1.6 2.2 22.7 24.7 23.8 14.5 20.6 14.1 22.3 14.0 16.7 17.2 31.9 21.6 18.6 21.1 23.4 22.1 13.7 17.8 12.6 19.3 12.6 18.4 15.5 28.3 18.4 18.0 1.4 1.5 2.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.9 3.7 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.7 3.3 1.3 1.3 Neutral Neutral Accumulate 195 4,448 121 136 12,597 42,886 7,461 4,667 8,731 7,011 5,427 10,539 7,711 12.8 21.0 9.7 12.9 21.4 10.0 6.6 114.4 6.3 8.1 143.0 7.5 29.4 38.9 19.2 24.0 31.1 16.1 7.9 23.4 1.9 6.2 16.1 1.8 30.0 71.1 9.5 28.8 61.4 10.9 2.7 4.9 1.0 2.3 4.0 0.9 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) Metals & Mining Nalco NMDC SAIL Sesa Goa Sterlite Inds Tata Steel Oil & Gas Cairn India GAIL ONGC Reliance Industries Gujarat Gas Pharmaceuticals Alembic Pharma Aurobindo Pharma Aventis* Cadila Healthcare Cipla Dr Reddy's Dishman Pharma GSK Pharma* Indoco Remedies Ipca labs Lupin Orchid Chemicals Ranbaxy* Sun Pharma Power CESC GIPCL NTPC Real Estate Anant Raj Buy 48 78 1,402 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.7 3.7 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.6 Buy Buy Neutral 283 64 153 342 77 3,533 973 126,197 5,084 1,557 74,766 5,512 1,573 86,549 24.2 28.8 23.1 23.8 28.5 23.4 45.2 10.4 12.4 48.5 10.9 14.1 6.3 6.2 12.3 5.8 5.9 10.9 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 1.4 11.2 10.4 13.0 10.9 10.2 13.5 1.1 1.1 2.4 1.2 0.9 2.2 Buy Buy Neutral Accumulate Buy Neutral Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Accumulate Buy Neutral Neutral 60 101 2,205 861 327 1,621 63 2,126 55 392 566 108 483 630 91 156 953 379 92 82 435 647 178 1,131 2,951 5,078 17,622 26,219 27,516 511 18,004 504 4,950 25,311 758 20,395 64,920 1,624 5,243 1,482 6,196 7,687 10,696 1,280 2,651 685 2,850 8,426 2,117 12,046 9,272 1,855 5,767 1,682 7,443 8,804 11,662 1,536 2,993 837 3,474 10,082 2,434 11,980 11,080 14.2 14.6 15.5 18.5 21.4 20.7 17.8 31.7 15.2 20.3 19.7 17.7 18.0 38.6 15.6 14.6 15.5 19.5 21.4 21.0 17.8 31.2 15.2 20.3 20.0 17.7 15.8 38.0 6.6 11.8 95.0 37.6 16.5 83.7 9.2 76.0 7.4 31.9 27.4 16.7 35.7 22.7 9.1 12.6 104.0 47.7 18.9 92.9 11.3 82.4 8.9 36.3 32.4 22.2 29.8 22.6 9.1 8.6 23.2 22.9 19.8 19.4 6.9 28.0 7.4 12.3 20.7 6.5 13.5 27.8 6.6 8.0 21.2 18.0 17.3 17.5 5.6 25.8 6.1 10.8 17.5 4.9 16.2 27.9 2.2 0.9 4.1 5.1 3.1 4.0 0.5 8.0 1.1 3.8 5.0 0.6 5.1 4.7 1.7 0.4 3.2 4.1 2.7 3.4 0.5 7.0 0.9 3.0 4.0 0.5 4.1 4.1 27.5 11.4 18.6 26.8 16.7 22.4 7.7 30.8 15.9 26.2 27.0 9.5 43.1 17.9 29.2 10.9 17.0 27.5 16.8 21.0 8.5 29.0 16.3 26.8 25.2 11.5 28.1 15.6 0.9 0.7 3.2 2.8 3.4 2.7 1.1 5.9 0.9 1.9 2.9 1.0 1.7 5.6 0.8 0.6 2.8 2.3 2.9 2.4 0.9 5.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 0.8 1.7 4.4 Buy Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral 316 345 277 720 307 380 321 60,366 43,724 16,605 50,472 17,258 55,502 75.4 15.3 37.7 7.9 16.1 71.7 15.6 36.3 8.0 11.5 57.0 35.4 31.3 61.5 21.2 54.9 37.0 32.6 64.3 19.2 5.6 9.7 8.9 11.7 14.4 5.8 9.3 8.5 11.2 16.0 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.2 5.0 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 4.3 20.2 19.0 18.7 10.3 33.4 16.3 17.2 17.3 9.9 28.7 2.7 0.1 1.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.6 1.1 Neutral Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Buy 52 185 83 182 101 399 92 192 115 499 13,376 73,248 34,366 15,848 33,909 8,474 11,959 50,914 7,704 41,680 9,024 13,062 60,785 8,034 45,382 12.6 78.2 14.6 33.6 24.2 10.9 16.2 78.6 15.1 34.6 23.2 12.1 2.6 19.1 9.4 42.0 16.3 53.9 3.6 20.9 10.5 43.1 16.9 66.0 20.3 9.7 8.9 4.3 6.2 7.4 14.5 8.8 7.9 4.2 6.0 6.1 1.1 2.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 5.6 27.1 9.2 22.3 11.3 12.2 7.5 24.4 9.6 19.2 10.7 13.4 1.1 4.0 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 3.5 1.0 (0.1) 0.4 0.6 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
38,781 143,088 148,011
237,329 156,331 159,043 235,899 362,700 380,031 3,934 2,472 3,267
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) Real Estate DLF HDIL MLIFE Telecom Bharti Airtel Idea Cellular Rcom zOthers Abbott India Bajaj Electricals Cera Sanitaryware Cravatex CRISIL Finolex Cables Force Motors Goodyear India Graphite India Greenply Industries HEG Hitachi Honeywell Automation INEOS ABS India ITD Cementation Jyothy Laboratories MCX MRF Page Industries Relaxo Footwears Sintex Industries Siyaram Silk Mills S. Kumars Nationwide Accumulate Buy Accumulate Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy 1,443 170 292 589 929 40 444 307 82 184 206 103 2,311 688 237 120 1,021 9,669 2,909 510 57 282 26 1,628 246 327 785 61 615 374 124 309 242 160 2,864 804 145 1,598 12,884 618 79 392 45 3,066 1,689 370 152 6,520 605 579 708 1,596 443 825 236 2,043 1,210 273 1,939 5,205 4,101 3,244 612 1,551 264 776 1,661 3,569 405 302 982 2,334 2,346 1,511 2,158 1,925 1,746 857 1,761 900 1,535 1,248 610 11,804 887 1,019 4,751 1,042 7,279 1,918 4,172 477 364 1,136 2,687 2,753 1,692 2,406 2,235 1,946 968 2,024 1,020 1,842 1,468 702 12,727 1,108 1,220 5,189 1,173 8,290 9.7 8.6 15.8 5.7 34.3 8.8 5.8 7.9 18.1 10.6 16.5 6.9 6.7 9.0 11.1 9.8 65.5 10.4 18.3 11.2 16.3 12.4 21.0 12.0 9.2 17.2 6.0 34.3 9.3 6.7 9.0 18.9 10.9 17.7 8.4 8.2 11.1 11.1 10.4 67.0 18.6 12.2 16.6 12.5 21.0 60.7 17.3 31.0 49.0 34.3 7.6 44.0 31.5 12.4 29.6 22.5 10.2 95.0 33.0 27.3 5.9 67.9 95.0 44.2 13.6 66.3 15.0 90.4 22.3 41.0 71.0 40.0 10.2 68.0 41.3 14.0 44.1 32.9 16.0 127.0 45.0 38.3 7.2 79.9 120.9 61.8 15.8 78.5 17.6 23.8 9.8 9.4 12.0 27.1 5.2 10.1 9.8 6.6 6.2 9.2 10.1 24.3 20.9 8.7 20.3 15.0 7.5 30.6 11.6 4.2 4.3 1.7 16.0 7.6 7.1 8.3 23.2 3.9 6.5 7.4 5.8 4.2 6.3 6.4 18.2 15.3 6.2 16.8 12.8 6.8 24.1 8.3 3.6 3.6 1.5 4.9 2.1 2.1 3.6 12.3 0.7 0.5 1.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 2.9 2.8 0.7 2.9 4.4 1.5 16.0 2.7 0.6 0.8 0.2 4.0 1.8 1.7 2.5 9.8 0.6 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.5 2.5 0.6 2.7 3.7 1.2 13.0 2.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 22.0 22.9 24.3 29.8 50.9 13.7 4.8 21.2 14.0 16.8 10.4 12.9 14.1 14.3 7.9 15.0 29.1 21.3 57.4 26.8 12.9 21.1 13.7 27.3 25.3 25.8 30.7 46.9 16.1 7.0 23.5 14.3 21.0 14.2 17.8 16.3 17.0 10.2 16.6 28.9 19.4 59.5 28.6 13.2 20.8 13.9 1.6 0.5 1.1 0.6 6.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.9 5.6 0.5 3.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 5.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.6 4.4 0.4 2.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 Neutral Neutral Neutral 307 80 54 116,584 26,478 11,156 80,076 23,209 22,125 86,613 26,063 23,734 32.8 26.2 31.9 33.5 27.5 32.0 15.5 3.3 4.5 19.8 4.9 5.9 19.9 24.3 12.1 15.5 16.2 9.2 2.1 1.9 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.3 10.5 7.7 2.5 11.9 10.3 3.1 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.6 Neutral Buy Buy 195 75 325 115 396 33,051 3,157 1,328 9,878 2,441 813 12,033 3,344 901 44.7 55.1 26.2 46.1 48.2 26.6 9.6 22.7 32.0 13.4 26.6 37.1 20.3 3.3 10.2 14.5 2.8 8.8 1.3 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 1.0 6.4 8.8 10.4 8.7 9.4 11.0 5.8 3.1 2.0 4.8 2.4 1.7 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP ( ) zOthers SpiceJet TAJ GVK Tata Sponge Iron TVS Srichakra United Spirits Vesuvius India Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Accumulate 25 64 343 326 721 367 40 108 424 462 413 1,221 403 529 250 9,426 745 5,647 300 787 1,612 10,289 628 6,513 319 837 1,827 11,421 716 3.5 35.8 16.2 9.5 13.5 16.4 6.5 36.2 17.5 9.8 14.3 16.5 1.9 7.9 58.5 72.3 31.0 29.8 4.9 9.1 66.9 92.5 42.9 34.4 13.0 8.1 5.9 4.5 23.2 12.3 5.2 7.1 5.1 3.5 16.8 10.7 30.5 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 4.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.8 13.9 14.9 33.1 8.1 18.8 14.4 15.1 32.1 10.3 18.6 0.4 1.7 0.3 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.8 Target Price ( ) Mkt Cap ( cr ) Sales ( cr ) FY13E FY14E OPM(%) FY13E FY14E EPS ( ) FY13E FY14E PER(x) FY13E FY14E P/BV(x) FY13E FY14E RoE(%) FY13E FY14E EV/Sales(x) FY13E FY14E
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 27, 2012
Market Outlook
July 30, 2012

Market Outlook 300712

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Market Outlook

July 30, 2012

5,100 5,888 6,358 6,977 6,931 8,878 7,911 5,224

46.2 11,633 208.7 10,194

1.5 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.0 (0.2) 0.1

187.7 13,076 64.8 54.1 123.5 (6.1) 2.8

2,958 5,627 8,567 2,998 2,129

INFY WIT IBN HDB

2.4 3.0 2.9 3.2

0.9 0.2 1.0 1.1

$39.6 $7.9 $34.9 $34.6

Advances Declines Unchanged

1,060 1,703 129

Net Inflows (July 26, 2012)

Purch 2,823 799

Sales 3,753 398 Purch 3,167 1,665 Gainers

FII Derivatives (July 27, 2012)

RIL to invest US$1bn plan in Aerospace

Crompton Greaves buys smart grid automation company ZIV Group

KEC International secures orders worth `740cr

Ashok Leyland to ink three overseas joint ventures

Sun TV slumped over possible CBI graft charges

23.1 10,249 12.4 23.4 11,607 14.1

ICICI Bank (CMP: `928 / TP: `1,169 / Upside: 26.0%)

Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E

Op. Inc (` cr) 22,356 27,157

NIM (%) 2.9 3.0

PAT (` cr) 7,915 9,451

ROA (x) 1.4 1.4

ROE (x) 14.2 15.5

P/E (x) 13.2 11.1

P/ABV (x) 1.6 1.5

68.7 568.7 82.0 622.2

Nestle (CMP: `4,448 / TP: - / Upside: -)

21.0 1,103114.4 21.4 1,379143.0

Maruti Suzuki (CMP: `1,111 / TP: `1,291 / Upside: 16%)

5.6 1,951 67.5 6.5 2,488 86.1

PNB - (CMP: `716 / TP: `1,000 / Upside: 39.7%)

Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E

Op. Inc (` cr) 20,116 23,625

NIM (%) 3.2 3.3

PAT (` cr) 5,182 5,897

ROA (x) 1.0 1.0

ROE (x) 18.2 18.0

P/E (x) 4.9 4.3

P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.8

152.8 847.6 173.9 999.9

Bank of India- (CMP: `291 / TP: ` 354 / Upside: 21.4%)

Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E

Op. Inc (` cr) 13,159 15,851

NIM (%) 2.4 2.5

PAT (` cr) 3,507 4,087

ROA (x) 0.8 0.8

ROE (x) 16.6 17.0

P/E (x) 5.0 4.3

P/ABV (x) 0.9 0.7

61.1 360.2 71.1 416.2

Union Bank (CMP: `164 / TP: `245 / Upside: 49.2%)

Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E

Op. Inc (` cr) 10,299 12,227

NIM (%) 2.9 3.0

PAT (` cr) 2,327 2,725

ROA (x) 0.8 0.8