ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION STUDY AREA METHODOLOGY RESULTS CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES CURRENT EVENTS

The recent earthquake swarms in the Anahim Volcanic Belt in British Columbia, Canada, have generated much interest from volcanologists and seismologists in the region. After the October 10th earthquake swarm of around 1,000 microearthquakes ranging from 1.0 to 2.7 on the Richter scale, the Geological Survey of Canada set up five new seismic stations around the epicenter of the quakes for further analysis and monitoring of the situation. They expect that the movement is being caused by up to 500,000 cubic metres of magma moving just 25-30km underneath the surface. The epicenter of these microearthquakes is located roughly 100 kilometres west of the town of Quesnel. If the size of these earthquakes starts to increase, it will be an indication that the magma is approaching the surface, increasing the possibility of a volcanic eruption. The Quake Swarms Near Quesnel chance of this happening from the recent earthquake swarm, however, is around 10%; nevertheless, scientists and the area's residents are excited about the possibility of seeing even a small amount of lava at the surface, as it would be the first volcanic activity in British Columbia for some four thousand years. In this study, we will use the general characteristics of a basaltic lava flow combined with historical evidence from past eruptions to predict the extent of a basaltic lava flow that might occur in the region of Quesnel and any effects it might have on communities, communication networks and ecosystems in the area. The Anahim Volcanic Belt is a 600 kilometre volcanic belt, stretching eastward from the British Columbia West Coast to the central areas of the province, created by the movement of the North American Plate which moves westward at around 3cm/year over a hot spot. Theories of hot spot formation vary, but the most popular is that of a mantle plume, essentially an upwelling of warm rock that is independant of the usual cycle of plate tectonics. The Anahim hot spot is thought to be responsible for the Rainbow Range, Ilgachuz Range and Itcha Ranges, all subsets of the Anahim Volcanic Belt.

Anahim Hot Spot

The youngest expression of this hotspot is Nazko Cone, formed 340,000 years ago. Its most recent activity occured during the Holocene, 7 ,200 years ago with a magnitude at the focus of just under 3.2 on the Richter scale. The eruption consisted of a discharge with a volume of around 1 cubic kilometre of basaltic lava that created three overlapping cinder cones. There was also evidence of pyroclastic emission as tephra and charcoal were deposited on the north and east sides of the cone. This is in contrast to the more rhyolitic eruptions of the wester Anahim volcanoes, suggesting that as the hot spot moves eastwards, it underlies thinner continental crust. This has been verified by observation of the crustal regime in other compression margins - the thickest granitic structures are found near the margin itself, with the plate becoming less compressed with movement away from the margin. In this case, the thinner crust would result in lower travel time, thus reducing the time available for magma differentiation, whose end products are rhyolites. As most magma is by origin basaltic, the eruption would therefore contain more basaltic materials. For this reason, we expect any further eruption in the Nazko area to follow the most recent Nazko Cone event - basaltic lava flows in conjunction with ash plume production and minor tephra. Basaltic lava flows have a high ferromagnesian content and erupt at temperatures between 1000C and 1200C. Due to the high temperature of this lava flow, the viscosity of the lava will be relatively low, allowing the lava to flow long distances from the vent. The extreme case of this, pahoehoe lava common in Hawaiian eruptions, has been extensively studied. These low viscosity lavas have flow speeds that depend heavily on undelying terrain, with a maximum of almost 60 kilometres per hour in subsurface lava channels. Flow independant of such channels and tubes moves considerably slower, averaging speeds of 1.6 kilometres per hour. However, this flow speed varies greatly within the flow, with speeds depending heavily on depth and degree of cooling that the flow has experienced (essentially distance from the vent). Cooling rates of lava also depend heavily on the depth of the flow. Flow depths in basaltic lavas have been measured ranging from 6 metres to tens of centimetres. As the Nazko area flows would not be exceptionally basaltic like Icelandic or Hawaiian eruptions, lower depths are unlikely as viscosity is generally higher. We will therefore assume an average flow depth, with a maximum of 3 metres. With this depth, and initial temperatures of 1200 C, the solidification time of the lava can be estimated - this is on the order of 100 seconds. However, driving force of the lava flow is the mass of extruded lava behind it and the flow's relatively large inertia. Therefore, basaltic lavas continue to advance after surface solidification due to the core of the flow remaining liquid in a pattern known as 'toeing'. The combination of varying speeds, irregular cooling times and uncertain depth means that it will be difficult to determine the distance any lava produced by a Nazko area event would travel. To counter this, we will make a series of assumptions that will be detailed in our
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methodology.

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