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India is a developing country. Now a days many people are interested to invest in financial markets especially on equities to get high returns, and to save tax in honest way. Equities are playing a major role in contribution of capital to the business from the beginning. Since the introduction of shares concept, large numbers of investors are showing interest to invest in stock market. In an industry plagued with skepticism and a stock market increasingly difficult to predict and contend with, if one looks hard enough there may still be a genuine aid for the Day Trader and Short Term Investor. The price of a security represents a consensus. It is the price at which one person agrees to buy and another agrees to sell. The price at which an investor is willing to buy or sell depends primarily on his expectations. If he expects the security's price to rise, he will buy it; if the investor expects the price to fall, he will sell it. These simple statements are the cause of a major challenge in forecasting security prices, because they refer to human expectations. As we all know firsthand, humans expectations are neither easily quantifiable nor predictable. If prices are based on investor expectations, then knowing what a security should sell for (i.e., fundamental analysis) becomes less important than knowing what other investors expect it to sell for. That's not to say that knowing what a security should sell for isn't important--it is. But there is usually a fairly strong consensus of a stock's future earnings that the average investor cannot disprove Fundamental analysis and technical analysis can co-exist in peace and complement each other. Since all the investors in the stock market want to make the maximum profits possible, they just cannot afford to ignore either fundamental or technical analysis.
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To start any business capital plays major role. Capital can be acquired in two ways by issuing shares or by taking debt from financial institutions or borrowing money from financial institutions. The owners of the company have to pay regular interest and principal amount at the end.
Stock is ownership in a company, with each share of stock representing a tiny piece of ownership. The more shares you own, the more of the company you own. The more shares you own, the more dividends you earn when the company makes a profit. In the financial world, ownership is called Equity. Advantages of selling stock:
A company can raise more capital than it could borrow. A company does not have to make periodic interest payments to creditors. A company does not have to make principal payments
Stock/shares play a major role in acquiring capital to the business in return investors are paid dividends to the shares they own. The more shares you own the more dividends you receive.
The role of equity analysis is to provide information to the market. An efficient market relies on information: a lack of information creates inefficiencies that result in stocks being misrepresented (over or under valued). This is valuable because it fills information gaps so that each individual investor does not need to analyze every stock thereby making the markets more efficient.
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The objective of this project is to deeply analyze our Indian Automobile Industry for investment purpose by monitoring the growth rate and performance on the basis of historical data.
Detailed analysis of Automobile industry which is gearing towards international standards Analyze the impact of qualitative factors on industrys and companys prospects Comparative analysis of three tough competitors TATA Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra and Mahindra through fundamental analysis & technical analysis.
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The analysis is made by taking into consideration five companies i.e. TATA Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra and Mahindra. The scope of the study is limited for a period of five years. The scope is limited to only the fundamental analysis of the chosen stocks.
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METHODOLOGY
Research design or research methodology is the procedure of collecting, analyzing and interpreting the data to diagnose the problem and react to the opportunity in such a way where the costs can be minimized and the desired level of accuracy can be achieved to arrive at a particular conclusion. The methodology used in the study for the completion of the project and the fulfillment of the project objectives.
The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected on the basis of Random Sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and each stock is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen. The stocks are chosen from the automobile sector.
The sample size for the number of stocks is taken as 3 for fundamental analysis of stocks as fundamental analysis is very exhaustive and requires detailed study.
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LIMITATIONS
This study has been conducted purely to understand Equity analysis for investors. The study is restricted to three companies based on Fundamental analysis. The study is limited to the companies having equities. Detailed study of the topic was not possible due to limited size of the project. There was a constraint with regard to time allocation for the research study i.e. for a period of 45 days. Suggestions and conclusions are based on the limited data of five years.
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SECURITY ANALYSIS
Investment success is pretty much a matter of careful selection and timing of stock purchases coupled with perfect matching to an individuals risk tolerance. In order to carry out selection, timing and matching actions an investor must conduct deep security analysis.
Investors purchase equity shares with two basic objectives; 1. 2. To make capital profits by selling shares at higher prices. To earn dividend income.
These two factors are affected by a host of factors. An investor has to carefully understand and analyze all these factors. There are basically two approaches to study security prices and valuation i.e. fundamental analysis and technical analysis
The value of common stock is determined in large measure by the performance of the firm that issued the stock. If the company is healthy and can demonstrate strength and growth, the value of the stock will increase. When values increase then prices follow and returns on an investment will increase. However, just to keep the savvy investor on their toes, the mix is complicated by the risk factors involved. Fundamental analysis examines all the dimensions of risk exposure and the probabilities of return, and merges them with broader economic analysis and greater industry analysis to formulate the valuation of a stock.
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. It is the study of economic, industry and company conditions in an effort to determine the value of a companys stock. Fundamental analysis typically focuses on key statistics in companys financial statements to determine if the stock price is correctly valued. The term simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price movements.
Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing. The basic philosophy underlying the fundamental analysis is that if an investor invests re.1 in buying a share of a company, how much expected returns from this investment he has.
The fundamental analysis is to appraise the intrinsic value of a security. It insists that no one should purchase or sell a share on the basis of tips and rumors. The fundamental approach calls upon the investors to make his buy or sell decision on the basis of a detailed analysis of the information about the company, about the industry, and the economy. It is also known as top-down approach. This approach attempts to study the economic scenario, industry position and the company expectations and is also known as economic-industry-company approach (EIC approach).
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Thus the EIC approach involves three steps: 1. 2. 3. Economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis
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1. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the economy grows rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and vice versa. When the level of economic activity is low, stock prices are low, and when the level of economic activity is high, stock prices are high reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profits of the firms. The analysis of macroeconomic environment is essential to understand the behavior of the stock prices.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP indicates the rate of growth of the economy. It represents the aggregate value of the goods and services produced in the economy. It consists of personal consumption expenditure, gross private domestic investment and government expenditure on goods and services and net exports of goods and services. The growth rate of economy points out the prospects for the industrial sector and the return investors can expect from investment in shares. The higher growth rate is more favorable to the stock market.
Savings and investment: It is obvious that growth requires investment which in turn requires substantial amount of domestic savings. Stock market is a channel through which the savings are made available to the corporate bodies. Savings are distributed over various assets like equity shares, deposits, mutual funds, real estate and bullion. The savings and investment patterns of the public affect the stock to a great extent.
Inflation: Along with the growth of GDP, if the inflation rate also increases, then the real growth would be very little. The effects of inflation on capital markets are numerous. An increase in the expected rate of inflation is expected to cause a nominal rise in interest rates. Also, it increases uncertainty of future business and investment Excel Business Academy Page 10
decisions. As inflation increases, it results in extra costs to businesses, thereby squeezing their profit margins and leading to real declines in profitability.
Interest rates: The interest rate affects the cost of financing to the firms. A decrease in interest rate implies lower cost of finance for firms and more profitability. More money is available at a lower interest rate for the brokers who are doing business with borrowed money. Availability of cheap funds encourages speculation and rise in the price of shares.
Tax structure: Every year in March, the business community eagerly awaits the Governments announcement regarding the tax policy. Concessions and incentives given to a certain industry encourage investment in that particular industry. Tax reliefs given to savings encourage savings. The type of tax exemption has impact on the profitability of the industries.
Infrastructure facilities: Infrastructure facilities are essential for the growth of industrial and agricultural sector. A wide network of communication system is a must for the growth of the economy. Regular supply of power without any power cut would
Boost the production. Banking and financial sectors also should be sound enough to provide adequate support to the industry. Good infrastructure facilities affect the stock market favorably.
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2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
An industry is a group of firms that have similar technological structure of production and produce similar products and Industry analysis is a type of business research that focuses on the status of an industry or an industrial sector (a broad industry classification, like "manufacturing"). Irrespective of specific economic situations, some industries might be expected to perform better, and share prices in these industries may not decline as much as in other industries. This identification of economic and industry specific factors influencing share prices will help investors to identify the shares that fit individual expectations.
Industry Life Cycle: The industry life cycle theory is generally attributed to Julius Grodensky. The life cycle of the industry is separated into four well defined stages.
Pioneering stage: The prospective demand for the product is promising in this stage and the technology of the product is low. The demand for the product attracts many producers to produce the particular product. There would be severe competition and only fittest companies survive this stage. The producers try to develop brand name, differentiate the product and create a product image. In this situation, it is difficult to select companies for investment because the survival rate is unknown.
Rapid growth stage: This stage starts with the appearance of surviving firms from the pioneering stage. The companies that have withstood the competition grow strongly in market share and financial performance. The technology of the production would have improved resulting in low cost of production and good quality products. The companies have stable growth rate in this stage and they declare dividend to the shareholders. It is advisable to invest in the shares of these companies.
Maturity and stabilization stage: the growth rate tends to moderate and the rate of growth would be more or less equal to the industrial growth rate or the gross Excel Business Academy Page 12
domestic product growth rate. Symptoms of obsolescence may appear in the technology. To keep going, technological innovations in the production process and products should be introduced. The investors have to closely monitor the events that take place in the maturity stage of the industry. Decline stage: demand for the particular product and the earnings of the companies in the industry decline. It is better to avoid investing in the shares of the low growth industry even in the boom period. Investment in the shares of these types of companies leads to erosion of capital.
Growth of the industry: The historical performance of the industry in terms of growth and profitability should be analyzed. The past variability in return and growth in reaction to macro economic factors provide an insight into the future.
Nature of competition: Nature of competition is an essential factor that determines the demand for the particular product, its profitability and the price of the concerned company scrips. The companies' ability to withstand the local as well as the multinational competition counts much. If too many firms are present in the organized sector, the competition would be severe. The competition would lead to a decline in the price of the product. The investor before investing in the scrip of a company should analyze the market share of the particular company's product and should compare it with the top five companies.
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SWOT analysis: SWOT analysis represents the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat for an industry. Every investor should carry out a SWOT analysis for the chosen industry. Take for instance, increase in demand for the industrys product becomes its strength, presence of numerous players in the market, i.e. competition becomes the threat to a particular company. The progress in R & D in that industry is an opportunity and entry of multinationals in the industry is a threat. In this way the factors are to be arranged and analyzed.
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3. COMPANY ANALYSIS
In the company analysis the investor assimilates the several bits of information related to the company and evaluates the present and future values of the stock. The risk and return associated with the purchase of the stock is analyzed to take better investment decisions. The present and future values are affected by a number of factors.
Competitive edge of the company: Major industries in India are composed of hundreds of individual companies. Though the number of companies is large, only few companies control the major market share. The competitiveness of the company can be studied with the help of the following; Market share: The market share of the annual sales helps to determine a companys relative competitive position within the industry. If the market share is high, the company would be able to meet the competition successfully. The companies in the market should be compared with like product groups otherwise, the results will be misleading. Growth of sales: The rapid growth in sales would keep the shareholder in a better position than one with stagnant growth rate. Investors generally prefer size and growth in sales because the larger size companies may be able to withstand the business cycle rather than the company of smaller size. Stability of sales: If a firm has stable sales revenue, it will have more stable earnings. The fall in the market share indicates the declining trend of company, even if the sales are stable. Hence the stability of sales should be compared with its market share and the competitors market share.
Earnings of the company: Sales alone do not increase the earnings but the costs and expenses of the company also influence the earnings. Further, earnings do not always increase with increase in sales. The companys sales might have increased but its earnings per share may decline due to rise in costs. Hence, the investor should not only depend on the sales, but should analyze the earnings of the company. Excel Business Academy Page 15
Financial analysis: The best source of financial information about a company is its own financial statements. This is a primary source of information for evaluating the investment prospects in the particular companys stock. Financial statement analysis is the study of a companys financial statement from various viewpoints. The statement gives the historical and current information about the companys operations. Historical financial statement helps to predict the future and the current information aids to analyze the present status of the company. The two main statements used in the analysis are Balance sheet and Profit and Loss Account.
The balance sheet is one of the financial statements that companies prepare every year for their shareholders. It is like a financial snapshot, the company's financial situation at a moment in time. It is prepared at the year end, listing the company's current assets and liabilities. It helps to study the capital structure of the company. It is better for the investor to avoid a company with excessive debt component in its capital structure. From the balance sheet, liquidity position of the company can also be assessed with the information on current assets and current liabilities.
Ratio analysis: Ratio is a relationship between two figures expressed mathematically. Financial ratios provide numerical relationship between two relevant financial data. Financial ratios are calculated from the balance sheet and profit and loss account. The relationship can be either expressed as a percent or as a quotient. Ratios summarize the data for easy understanding, comparison and interpretations.
Ratios for investment purposes can be classified into profitability ratios, turnover ratios, and leverage ratios. Profitability ratios are the most popular ratios since investors prefer to measure the present profit performance and use this information to forecast the future strength of the company. The most often used profitability ratios are return on assets,
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price earnings multiplier, price to book value, price to cash flow, and price to sales, dividend yield, return on equity, present value of cash flows, and profit margins.
a) Return on Assets (ROA) ROA is computed as the product of the net profit margin and the total asset turnover ratios. ROA = (Net Profit/Total income) x (Total income/Total Assets)
This ratio indicates the firm's strategic success. Companies can have one of two strategies: cost leadership, or product differentiation. ROA should be rising or keeping pace with the company's competitors if the company is successfully pursuing either of these strategies, but how ROA rises will depend on the company's strategy. ROA should rise with a successful cost leadership strategy because the companys increasing operating efficiency. An example is an increasing, total asset, turnover ratio as the company expands into new markets, increasing its market share. The company may achieve leadership by using its assets more efficiently. With a successful product differentiation strategy, ROA will rise because of a rising profit margin.
b) Return on Investment (ROI) ROI is the return on capital invested in business, i.e., if an investment Rs 1 crore in men, machines, land and material is made to generate Rs. 25 lakhs of net profit, then the ROI is 25%. The computation of return on investment is as follows:
As this ratio reveals how well the resources of a firm are being used, higher the ratio, better are the results. The return on shareholders investment should be compared with the return of other similar firms in the same industry. The inert-firm comparison of this
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ratio determines whether the investments in the firm are attractive or not as the investors would like to invest only where the return is higher.
c) Return on Equity Return on equity measures how much an equity shareholder's investment is actually earning. The return on equity tells the investor how much the invested rupee is earning from the company. The higher the number, the better is the performance of the company and suggests the usefulness of the projects the company has invested in. The computation of return on equity is as follows:
Return on equity = (Net profit to owners/value of the specific owner's Contribution to the business) x 100
The ratio is more meaningful to the equity shareholders who are invested to know profits earned by the company and those profits which can be made available to pay dividend to them.
d) Earnings per Share (EPS) This ratio determines what the company is earning for every share. For many investors, earnings are the most important tool. EPS is calculated by dividing the earnings (net profit) by the total number of equity shares. The computation of EPS is as follows:
The EPS is a good measure of profitability and when compared with EPS of similar other companies, it gives a view of the comparative earnings or earnings power of a firm. EPS calculated for a number of years indicates whether or not earning power of the company has increased.
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e) Dividend per Share (DPS) The extent of payment of dividend to the shareholders is measured in the form of dividend per share. The dividend per share gives the amount of cash flow from the company to the owners and is calculated as follows:
The payment of dividend can have several interpretations to the shareholder. The distribution of dividend could be thought of as the distribution of excess profits/abnormal profits by the company. On the other hand, it could also be negatively interpreted as lack of investment opportunities. In all, dividend payout gives the extent of inflows to the shareholders from the company.
f) Dividend Payout Ratio From the profits of each company a cash flow called dividend is distributed among its shareholders. This is the continuous stream of cash flow to the owners of shares, apart from the price differentials (capital gains) in the market. The return to the shareholders, in the form of dividend, out of the company's profit is measured through the payout ratio. The payout ratio is computed as follows:
Payout Ratio = (Dividend per share / Earnings per share) * 100 The percentage of payout ratio can also be used to compute the percentage of retained earnings. The profits available for distribution are either paid as dividends or retained internally for business growth opportunities. Hence, when dividends are not declared, the entire profit is ploughed back into the business for its future investments.
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g) Dividend Yield Dividend yield is computed by relating the dividend per share to the market price of the share. The market place provides opportunities for the investor to buy the company's share at any point of time. The price at which the share has been bought from the market is the actual cost of the investment to the shareholder. The market price is to be taken as the cum-dividend price. Dividend yield relates the actual cost to the cash flows received from the company. The computation of dividend yield is as follows
Dividend yield = (Dividend per share / Market price per share) * 100
High dividend yield ratios are usually interpreted as undervalued companies in the market. The market price is a measure of future discounted values, while the dividend per share is the present return from the investment. Hence, a high dividend yield implies that the share has been under priced in the market. On the other hand a low dividend yield need not be interpreted as overvaluation of shares. A company that does not pay out dividends will not have a dividend yield and the real measure of the market price will be in terms of earnings per share and not through the dividend payments.
h) Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) The P/E multiplier or the price earnings ratio relates the current market price of the share to the earnings per share. This is computed as follows:
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This ratio is calculated to make an estimate of appreciation in the value of a share of a company and is widely used by investors to decide whether or not to buy shares in a particular company. Many investors prefer to buy the company's shares at a low P/E ratio since the general interpretation is that the market is undervaluing the share and there will be a correction in the market price sooner or later. A very high P/E ratio on the other hand implies that the company's shares are overvalued and the investor can benefit by selling the shares at this high market price.
i) Debt-to-Equity Ratio Debt-Equity ratio is used to measure the claims of outsiders and the owners against the firms assets. Debt-to-equity ratio = Outsiders Funds / Shareholders Funds
The debt-equity ratio is calculated to measure the extent to which debt financing has been used in a business. It indicates the proportionate claims of owners and the outsiders against the firms assets. The purpose is to get an idea of the cushion available to outsiders on the liquidation of the firm.
Technical Analysis
The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into two very broad categories: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value. Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesn't care one bit about the "value" of a company or a commodity. Technicians (sometimes
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called chartists) are only interested in the price movements in the market.
Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.
Line Chart
The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the closing prices over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the individual points such as the high, low and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this is why it is the only value used in line charts.
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Bar Charts The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of information to each data point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines that represent each data point. This vertical line represents the high and low for the trading period, along with the closing price. The close and open are represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. The opening price on a bar chart is illustrated by the dash that is located on the left side of the vertical bar. Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right. Generally, if the left dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be shaded black, representing an up period for the stock, which means it has gained value. A bar that is colored red signals that the stock has gone down in value over that period. When this is the case, the dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash on the left (open).
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Candlestick Charts
The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way that it is visually constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a thin vertical line showing the period's trading range. The difference comes in the formation of a wide bar on the vertical line, which illustrates the difference between the open and close. And, like bar charts, candlesticks also rely heavily on the use of colors to explain what has happened during the trading period. A major problem with the candlestick color configuration, however, is that different sites use different standards; therefore, it is important to understand the candlestick configuration used at the chart site you are working with. There are two color constructs for days up and one for days that the price falls. When the price of the stock is up and closes above the opening trade, the candlestick will usually be white or clear. If the stock has traded down for the period, then the candlestick will usually be red or black, depending on the site. If the stock's price has closed above the previous days close but below the day's open, the candlestick will be black or filled with the color that is used to indicate an up day. (To read more, see The Art Of Candlestick Charting - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.)
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These types of charts also try to neutralize the skewing effect that time has on chart analysis. (For further reading, see Point And Figure Charting.)
When first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs and Os. The Xs represent upward price trends and the Os represent downward price trends. There are also numbers and letters in the chart; these represent months, and give investors an idea of the date. Each box on the chart represents the price scale, which adjusts depending on the price of the stock: the higher the stock's price the more each box represents. On most charts where the price is between $20 and $100, a box represents $1, or 1 point for the stock. The other critical point of a point and figure chart is the reversal criteria. This is usually set at three but it can also be set according to the chartist's discretion. The reversal criteria set how much the price has to move away from the high or low in the price trend to create a new trend or, in other words, how much the price has to move in order for a column of Xs to become a column of Os, or vice versa. When the price trend has moved from one trend to another, it shifts to the right, signaling a trend change.
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FINANCIAL MARKETS
Finance is the pre-requisite for modern business and financial institutions play a vital role in the economic system. It is through financial markets and institutions that the financial system of an economy works. Financial markets refer to the institutional arrangements for dealing in financial assets and credit instruments of different types such as currency, cheques, bank deposits, bills, bonds, equities, etc.
Financial market is a broad term describing any marketplace where buyers and sellers participate in the trade of assets such as equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives. They are typically defined by having transparent pricing, basic regulations on trading, costs and fees and market forces determining the prices of securities that trade.
Generally, there is no specific place or location to indicate a financial market. Wherever a financial transaction takes place, it is deemed to have taken place in the financial market. Hence financial markets are pervasive in nature since financial transactions are themselves very pervasive throughout the economic system. For instance, issue of equity shares, granting of loan by term lending institutions, deposit of money into a bank, purchase of debentures, sale of shares and so on.
In a nutshell, financial markets are the credit markets catering to the various needs of the individuals, firms and institutions by facilitating buying and selling of financial assets, claims and services.
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Financial markets
Organized markets
Capital Markets
Money Markets
Primary Market
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Capital Market The capital market is a market for financial assets which have a long or indefinite maturity. Generally, it deals with long term securities which have a period of above one year. In the widest sense, it consists of a series of channels through which the savings of the community are made available for industrial and commercial enterprises and public authorities. As a whole, capital market facilitates raising of capital.
The major functions performed by a capital market are: 1. Mobilization of financial resources on a nation-wide scale. 2. Securing the foreign capital and know-how to fill up deficit in the required resources for economic growth at a faster rate. 3. Effective allocation of the mobilized financial resources, by directing the same to projects yielding highest yield or to the projects needed to promote balanced economic development.
Capital market consists of primary market and secondary market. Primary market: Primary market is a market for new issues or new financial claims. Hence it is also called as New Issue Market. It basically deals with those securities which are issued to the public for the first time. The market, therefore, makes available a new block of securities for public subscription. In other words, it deals with rising of fresh capital by companies either for cash or for consideration other than cash. The best example could be Initial Public Offering (IPO) where a firm offers shares to the public for the first time.
Secondary market: Secondary market is a market where existing securities are traded. In other words, securities which have already passed through new issue market are traded in this market. Generally, such securities are quoted in the stock exchange and it provides a continuous and regular market for buying and selling of securities. This market consists of all stock exchanges recognized by the government of India.
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Money Market Money markets are the markets for short-term, highly liquid debt securities. Money market securities are generally very safe investments which return relatively low interest rate that is most appropriate for temporary cash storage or short term time needs. It consists of a number of sub-markets which collectively constitute the money market namely call money market, commercial bills market, acceptance market, and Treasury bill market.
Derivatives Market The derivatives market is the financial market for derivatives, financial instruments like futures contracts or options, which are derived from other forms of assets. A derivative is a security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. The important financial derivatives are the following: Forwards: Forwards are the oldest of all the derivatives. A forward contract refers to an agreement between two parties to exchange an agreed quantity of an asset for cash at a certain date in future at a predetermined price specified in that agreement. The promised asset may be currency, commodity, instrument etc. Futures: Future contract is very similar to a forward contract in all respects excepting the fact that it is completely a standardized one. It is nothing but a standardized forward contract which is legally enforceable and always traded on an organized exchange.
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Options: A financial derivative that represents a contract sold by one party (option writer) to another party (option holder). The contract offers the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) a security or other financial asset at an agreed-upon price (the strike price) during a certain period of time or on a specific date (exercise date). Call options give the option to buy at certain price, so the buyer would want the stock to go up. Put options give the option to sell at a certain price, so the buyer would want the stock to go down.
Swaps: It is yet another exciting trading instrument. In fact, it is the combination of forwards by two counterparties. It is arranged to reap the benefits arising from the fluctuations in the market either currency market or interest rate market or any other market for that matter.
Foreign Exchange Market It is a market in which participants are able to buy, sell, exchange and speculate on currencies. Foreign exchange markets are made up of banks, commercial companies, central banks, investment management firms, hedge funds, and retail forex brokers and investors. The forex market is considered to be the largest financial market in the world. It is a worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for the trading of currencies. Because the currency markets are large and liquid, they are believed to be the most efficient financial markets. It is important to realize that the foreign exchange market is not a single exchange, but is constructed of a global network of computers that connects participants from all parts of the world.
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Commodities Market It is a physical or virtual marketplace for buying, selling and trading raw or primary products. For investors' purposes there are currently about 50 major commodity markets worldwide that facilitate investment trade in nearly 100 primary commodities. Commodities are split into two types: hard and soft commodities. Hard commodities are typically natural resources that must be mined or extracted (gold, rubber, oil, etc.), whereas soft commodities are agricultural products or livestock (corn, wheat, coffee, sugar, soybeans, pork, etc.)
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India Financial market is one of the oldest in the world and is considered to be the fastest growing and best among all the markets of the emerging economies.
The history of Indian capital markets dates back 200 years toward the end of the 18th century when India was under the rule of the East India Company. The development of the capital market in India concentrated around Mumbai where no less than 200 to 250 securities brokers were active during the second half of the 19th century. The financial market in India today is more developed than many other sectors because it was organized long before with the securities exchanges of Mumbai, Ahmadabad and Kolkata were established as early as the 19th century. By the early 1960s the total number of securities exchanges in India rose to eight, including Mumbai, Ahmadabad and Kolkata apart from Madras, Kanpur, Delhi, Bangalore and Pune. Today there are 21 regional securities exchanges in India in addition to the centralized NSE (National Stock Exchange) and OTCEI (Over the Counter Exchange of India). However the stock markets in India remained stagnant due to stringent controls on the market economy that allowed only a handful of monopolies to dominate their respective sectors. The corporate sector wasn't allowed into many industry segments, which were dominated by the state controlled public sector resulting in stagnation of the economy right up to the early 1990s. Thereafter when the Indian economy began liberalizing and the controls began to be dismantled or eased out; the securities markets witnessed a flurry of IPOs that were launched. This resulted in many new companies across different industry segments to come up with newer products and services.
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A remarkable feature of the growth of the Indian economy in recent years has been the role played by its securities markets in assisting and fuelling that growth with money rose within the economy. This was in marked contrast to the initial phase of growth in many of the fast growing economies of East Asia that witnessed huge doses of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) spurring growth in their initial days of market decontrol. During this phase in India much of the organized sector has been affected by high growth as the financial markets played an all-inclusive role in sustaining financial resource mobilization. Many PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings) that decided to offload part of their equity were also helped by the well-organized securities market in India.
The launch of the NSE (National Stock Exchange) and the OTCEI (Over the Counter Exchange of India) during the mid 1990s by the government of India was meant to usher in an easier and more transparent form of trading in securities. The NSE was conceived as the market for trading in the securities of companies from the large-scale sector and the OTCEI for those from the small-scale sector. While the NSE has not just done well to grow and evolve into the virtual backbone of capital markets in India the OTCEI struggled and is yet to show any sign of growth and development. The integration of IT into the capital market infrastructure has been particularly smooth in India due to the countrys world class IT industry. This has pushed up the operational efficiency of the Indian stock market to global standards and as a result the country has been able to capitalize on its high growth and attract foreign capital like never before.
The regulating authority for capital markets in India is the SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India). SEBI came into prominence in the 1990s after the capital markets experienced some turbulence. It had to take drastic measures to plug many loopholes that were exploited by certain market forces to advance their vested interests. After this initial phase of struggle SEBI has grown in strength as the regulator of Indias capital markets and as one of the countrys most important institutions.
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to protect the interests of investors in securities; to promote the development of Securities Market; to regulate the securities market and For matters connected therewith or incidental thereto.
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Since its inception SEBI has been working targeting the securities and is attending to the fulfillment of its objectives with commendable zeal and dexterity. The improvements in the securities markets like capitalization requirements, margining, establishment of clearing corporations etc. reduced the risk of credit and also reduced the market.
SEBI has introduced the comprehensive regulatory measures, prescribed registration norms, the eligibility criteria, the code of obligations and the code of conduct for different intermediaries like, bankers to issue, merchant bankers, brokers and subbrokers, registrars, portfolio managers, credit rating agencies, underwriters and others. It has framed bye-laws, risk identification and risk management systems for Clearing houses of stock exchanges, surveillance system etc. which has made dealing in securities both safe and transparent to the end investor.
Another significant event is the approval of trading in stock indices (like S&P CNX Nifty & Sensex) in 2000. A market Index is a convenient and effective product because of the following reasons:
It acts as a barometer for market behavior; It is used to benchmark portfolio performance; It is used in derivative instruments like index futures and index options; It can be used for passive fund management as in case of Index Funds.
Two broad approaches of SEBI is to integrate the securities market at the national level, and also to diversify the trading products, so that there is an increase in number of traders including banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, mutual funds, primary dealers etc. to transact through the Exchanges. In this context the introduction of derivatives trading through Indian Stock Exchanges permitted by SEBI in 2000 AD is a real landmark. Excel Business Academy Page 37
SEBI has enjoyed success as a regulator by pushing systemic reforms aggressively and successively (e.g. the quick movement towards making the markets electronic and paperless rolling settlement on T+2 bases). SEBI has been active in setting up the regulations as required under law.
8. Guwahati 9. Hyderabad 10. Jaipur 11. Ludhiana 12. Madhya Pradesh 13. Madras 14. Magadha 15. Mangalore 16. Meerut 17. Pune 18. Saurashtra Kutch 19. Uttar Pradesh 20. Vadodara
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A very common name for all traders in the stock market, BSE, stands for Bombay Stock Exchange. It is the oldest market not only in the country, but also in Asia. In the early days, BSE was known as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers Association." It was established in the year 1875 and became the first stock exchange in the country to be recognized by the government. In 1956, BSE obtained a permanent recognition from the Government of India under the Securities Contracts (regulation) act 1956. In the past and even now, it plays a pivotal role in the development of the country's capital market. This is recognized worldwide and its index, SENSEX, is also tracked worldwide. Earlier it was an Association of Persons (AOP), but now it is a demutualised and corporatised entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act, 1956, pursuant to the BSE (Corporatization and Demutualization) Scheme, 2007 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
BSE Vision The vision of the Bombay Stock Exchange is to "Emerge as the premier Indian stock exchange by establishing global benchmarks."
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BSE Management Bombay Stock Exchange is managed professionally by Board of Directors. It comprises of eminent professionals, representatives of Trading Members and the Managing Director. The Board is an inclusive one and is shaped to benefit from the market intermediaries participation.
The Board exercises complete control and formulates larger policy issues. The day-to-day operations of BSE are managed by the Managing Director and its school of professional as a management team.
BSE Network The Exchange reaches physically to 417 cities and towns in the country. The framework of it has been designed to safeguard market integrity and to operate with transparency. It provides an efficient market for the trading in equity, debt instruments and derivatives. Its online trading system, popularly known as BOLT, is a proprietary system and it is BS 7799-2-2002 certified. The BOLT network was expanded, nationwide, in 1997. The surveillance and clearing & settlement functions of the Exchange are ISO 9001:2000 certified. BSE Facts BSE as a brand is synonymous with capital markets in India. The BSE SENSEX is the benchmark equity index that reflects the robustness of the economy and finance. It was the First in India to introduce Equity Derivatives First in India to launch a Free Float Index First in India to launch US$ version of BSE Sensex First in India to launch Exchange Enabled Internet Trading Platform First in India to obtain ISO certification for Surveillance, Clearing & Settlement
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'BSE
On-Line
Trading
System
(BOLT) Security
has
been
awarded
the
globally standard
recognized
the
Information
Management
System
BS7799-2:2002. First to have an exclusive facility for financial training Moved from Open Outcry to Electronic Trading within just 50 days
BSE with its long history of capital market development is fully geared to continue its contributions to further the growth of the securities markets of the country, thus helping India increases its sphere of influence in international financial markets.
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NATIONAL
STOCK
EXCHANGE
OF
INDIA
LIMITED
The National Stock Exchange of India Limited has genesis in the report of the High Powered Study Group on Establishment of New Stock Exchanges, which recommended promotion of a National Stock Exchange by financial institutions (FIs) to provide access to investors from all across the country on an equal footing. Based on the recommendations, NSE was promoted by leading Financial Institutions at the behest of the Government of India and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying company unlike other stock Exchange in the country. On its recognition as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 in April 1993, NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment commenced operations in November 1994 and operations in Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000. NSE GROUP
National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd. (NSCCL) It is a wholly owned subsidiary, which was incorporated in August 1995 and commenced clearing operations in April 1996. It was formed to build confidence in clearing and settlement of securities, to promote and maintain the short and consistent settlement cycles, to provide a counter-party risk guarantee and to operate a tight risk containment system.
NSE.IT Ltd. It is also a wholly owned subsidiary of NSE and is its IT arm. This arm of the NSE is uniquely positioned to provide products, services and solutions for the securities industry. NSE.IT primarily focuses on in the area of trading, broker front-end and back-office, clearing and settlement, web-based, insurance, etc. Along with this, it also provides consultancy and implementation services in Data Warehousing, Business Continuity Plans, Site Maintenance and
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Backups, Stratus Mainframe Facility Management, Real Time Market Analysis & Financial News.
India Index Services & Products Ltd. (IISL) It is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL Ltd. to provide a variety of indices and index related services and products for the Indian Capital markets. It was set up in May 1998. IISL has a consulting and licensing agreement with the Standard and Poor's (S&P), world's leading provider of investible equity indices, for co-branding equity indices.
National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) NSE joined hands with IDBI and UTI to promote dematerialization of securities. This step was taken to solve problems related to trading in physical securities. It commenced operations in November 1996.
NSE Facts It uses satellite communication technology to energize participation from around 400 cities in India. NSE can handle up to 1 million trades per day. It is one of the largest interactive VSAT based stock exchanges in the world. The NSE- network is the largest private wide area network in India and the first extended C- Band VSAT network in the world. Presently more than 9000 users are trading on the real time-online NSE application.
Today, NSE is one of the largest exchanges in the world and still forging ahead. At NSE, we are constantly working towards creating a more transparent, vibrant and innovative capital market.
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Need for OTCEI: Studies by NASSCOM, software technology parks of India, the venture capitals funds and the governments IT tasks Force, as well as rising interest in IT, Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology and Media shares have repeatedly emphasized the need for a national stock market for innovation and high growth companies.
Innovative companies are critical to developing economics like India, which is undergoing a major technological revolution. With their abilities to generate employment opportunities and contribute to the economy, it is essential that these companies not only expand existing operations but also set up new units. The key issue for these companies is raising timely, cost effective and long term capital to sustain their operations and enhance growth. Such companies, particularly those that have been in operation for a short time, are unable to raise funds through the traditional financing methods, because they have not yet been evaluated by the financial world.
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Company Profile
Enable Investor Financial Services was launched in early July of 2010 to provide a comprehensive Financial Planning Platform that includes Wealth management, financial information/training, short term and long term personalized advisory and investment service to subscribed retail consumers and investors around India.
Comprehensive Financial Planning. We provide financial planning on getting out of debt, finding financial security, discovering financial freedom, retirement planning and building a strong financial education. We custom design and manage clients financial portfolios proactively to achieve their goals set forth.
Economic News. We provide clients with news stories and related analytics to general economics, capital market data, company fundamental and technical research data, gold, silver, oil, corporate news, and other related and pertinent financial and economic news events.
Investing Advice. We provide actionable guides and theories for successful short-term and long-term investing, whether in stocks, commodities, currencies or other investment vehicles.
Enable Investor Financial Services is focused on providing well researched, unbiased and expert advice. We have a highly quality research database filtered by the best research analysts ratings who track various personal finance instruments including direct equity , commodities , mutual funds, fixed income instruments, gold, and insurance. Our core proposition is built around research and financial planning which is our primary business.
The Philosophy Enable Investor Financial Services is dedicated to the following financial and investing philosophies:
Security. Securing the basics of food, shelter and health are the pillars of any wellthought-out personal financial paradigm. Excel Business Academy Page 46
Income. Speculation should be kept at a minimum, and wher ever possible only as a hedge profits should be oriented toward income and value investing. This will provide a more flexible portfolio, and provides opportunities to grow ones net worth more in the long term.
Freedom. Liberty is the highest political value, and for good cause once youve tasted freedom, you cant return to the irrationality of chains. This is also true for finance. Becoming debt free and having a portfolio that allows you to not be tied down to any one job, business, or even location is important for financial freedom.
Justice. If you havent earned wealth, its wrong to consume someone elses. Profits should be earned through productive and helpful business and finance. Ones portfolio should be productive and efficient not just profitable. Profit is good, but its not all that finance is about.
The Staff Enable Investor Financial Services is managed by a small yet efficient staff. Enable Investor Financial Services is owned and managed by Rohit Jacob Issac, the founder and operational director of the organization and its entire financial network. Over the next few months, youll be seeing more of Enable Investor Financial Services as we aggregate and manage more actionable news, more business analytics, and plan essential economics, investing, and finance courses for the public that will help consumers build prosperous and productive financial portfolios for life that is aligned with the philosophy of the organization.
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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is the study of economic, industry and company conditions in an effort to determine the value of a company s stock. Fundamental analysis typically focuses on key statistics in company s financial statements to determine if the stock price is correctly valued.
Most fundamental information focuses on economic, industry and company statistics. The typical approach to analyzing a company involves three basic steps: 1. Determine the condition of the general economy. 2. Determine the condition of the industry. 3. Determine the condition of the company.
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1. ECONOMY ANALYSIS
Economic analysis is the analysis of forces operating the overall economy a country. Economic analysis is a process whereby strengths and weaknesses of an economy are analyzed. Economic analysis is important in order to understand exact condition of an economy. GDP and Automobile Industry In absolute terms, India is 16th in the world in of nominal factory output. The service sector is growing rapidly in the past few years. This is the chart showing contributions of different sectors in economy. pieIndian terms
Today, automobile sector in India is one of the key sectors of the economy in terms of the employment. Directly and indirectly it employs more than 10 million people and if we add the number of people employed in the auto-component and auto ancillary industry then the number goes even higher. As the world economy slipped into recession hitting the demand hard and the banking sector takes conservative approach towards lending to corporate sector, the GDP growth has
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downgraded it to 7.1 per cent for 2008-09 and it has increased to 8.6% in 2010 by overcoming the setbacks of recession.
Recession
Auto industry in India had been hit hard by ongoing global financial recession. But it is in a good shape now. Much of this optimism resulted from renewed interest being shown in India auto industry by reputed overseas car makers. Nissan Motors which is a well known Japanese car making company regarded India automobile market as a global car manufacturing hub for future and invested huge amount in our market. There are some other automobile companies of world who have shown interest in India auto market. Major names among these are General Motors, Skoda Auto and Mercedes-Benz. These companies have major plans lined up for India auto industry. These are few signs of the revolutionized auto industry after recession.
Inflation
The rise in inflation will have adverse impact on the industry that will not only see interest rates getting further hardened but also a drop in demand due to the squeeze in purchasing power. The effect of inflation has affected every sector which is related to car manufacturing and production. The increase in the price of fuel and the steel due to inflation has led to a slower growth rate of the car industry in India.
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Foreign Direct Investment The automobile sector in the Indian industry is one of the high performing sectors of the Indian economy. This has contributed largely in making India a prime destination for many international players in the automobile industry who wish to set up their businesses in India. Automatic approval for foreign equity investment up to 100 per cent of manufacture of automobiles and component is permitted. Exports Despite recession, the Indian automobile market continues to perform better than most of the other industries in the economy in coming future; more and more MNCs coming in India to setup their ventures which clearly shows the scope of expansion. During April-January 2010, overall automobile exports registered a growth rate of 13.24 percent.
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Segmentation of Automobile Industry The automobile industry comprises of Heavy vehicles (trucks, buses, tempos, tractors); passenger cars; Two-wheelers; Commercial Vehicles; and Three-wheelers. Following is the segmentation that how much each sector comprises Industry. Industry life cycle The industrial life cycle is a term used for classifying industry life over time. Industry life cycle classification generally groups industries into one of four stages: pioneer, growth, maturity and decline. In the pioneer phase, the product has not been widely accepted or adopted. Business strategies are developing, and there is high risk of failure. However, successful companies can grow at extraordinary rates. The Indian automobile sector has passed this stage quite successfully. The industry is growing rapidly, often at an accelerating rate of sales and earnings growth. Indian Automotive Industry is booming with a growth rate of around 15 % annually. The growth rate of the automobile industry in India is greater than the GDP growth rate of the economy, so the automobile sector can be very well be said to be in the growth phase. of whole Indian Automobile
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Swot analysis:
A scan of the internal and external environment is an important part of the strategic planning process. Environmental factors internal to the firm usually can be classified as strengths (S) or weaknesses (W), and those external to the firm can be classified as opportunities (O) or threats (T). Such an analysis of the strategic environment is referred to as a SWOT analysis. SWOT analysis of the Indian automobile sector gives the following points: 1. Strengths Large domestic market Sustainable labor cost advantage Competitive auto component vendor base Government incentives for manufacturing plants Strong engineering skills in design etc
2. Weaknesses Low labor productivity High interest costs and high overheads make the production uncompetitive Various forms of taxes push up the cost of production Low investment in Research and Development Infrastructure bottleneck
3. Opportunities Increasing challenges in consumer demands, technology development, and globalization. Heavy thrust on mining and construction activity Increase in the income level Cut in excise duties
4. Threats Ignorance of Research & development Rising interest rates Cut throat competition Excel Business Academy Page 53
3. COMPANY ANALYSIS
The company analysis shows the long-term strenght of the company that what is the financial position of the company in the market, where it stands among its competitors and who are the key drivers of the company, what are the future plans of the company, what are the policies of government towards the company and how the stake of the company divested among different groups of people. Here, I have taken three companies namely TATA Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra and Mahindra for the purpose of fundamental analysis.
Tata Motors Limited is India's largest automobile company, with consolidated revenues of Rs. 92,519 crores (USD 20 billion) in 2009-10. It is the leader in commercial vehicles in each segment, and among the top three in passenger vehicles with winning products in the compact, midsize car and utility vehicle segments. The company is the world's fourth largest truck manufacturer, and the world's second largest bus manufacturer.
Maruti Suzuki is a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation Japan. More than half the numbers of cars sold in India wear Maruti Suzuki badge. They offer a full range of cars from entry level Maruti 800 & Alto to stylish hatchback Ritz, A star, Swift, Wagon R, Estillo and sedans Dzire,
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SX4 and Sports Utility Vehicle Grand Vitara. Since inception, it has produced and sold over 7.5 million vehicles in India and exported over 500,000 units to Europe and other countries. Its turnover for the fiscal 2008-09 stood at Rs. 203,583 Million & Profit after Tax at Rs. 12,187 Million.
The Mahindra Groups Automotive Sector is in the business of manufacturing and marketing utility vehicles and light commercial vehicles, including three-wheelers. It is the market leader in utility vehicles in India since inception, and currently accounts for about half of Indias market for utility vehicles. The Automotive Sector continues to be a leader in the utility vehicle segment with a diverse portfolio that includes mass transport as well as new generation vehicles like Scorpio, Bolero and the recently launched Xylo.
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Balance sheet Mar ' 11 Sources of funds Owner's fund Equity share capital Share application money Preference share capital Reserves & surplus Loan funds Secured loans Unsecured loans Total Uses of funds Fixed assets Gross block Less : revaluation reserve Less : accumulated depreciation Net block Capital work-in-progress Investments Net current assets Current assets, loans & advances Less : current liabilities & provisions Total net current assets Miscellaneous expenses not written 14,775.61 12,329.48 10,836.58 10,781.23 10,318.42 18,963.40 19,672.73 12,846.21 12,029.80 -4,187.79 -7,343.25 -2,009.63 -1,248.57 2.02 6.05 8,321.20 1,997.22 10.09 21,883.32 18,416.81 13,905.17 10,830.83 24.19 8,466.25 24.63 7,212.92 25.07 6,259.90 7,620.20 6,954.04 25.51 5,443.52 5,361.80 5,064.96 4,910.27 8,775.80 25.95 4,894.54 3,855.31 2,513.32 2,477.00 7,766.05 8,132.70 7,742.60 8,883.31 5,251.65 7,913.91 2,461.99 3,818.53 2,022.04 1,987.10 634.65 3.06 570.60 514.05 385.54 7,428.45 385.41 6,458.39 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07
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Mar ' 11 Total Notes: Book value of unquoted investments Market value of quoted investments Contingent liabilities Number of equity shares outstanding (Lacs)
Mar ' 10
Mar ' 09
Mar ' 08
Mar ' 07
22,275.15 21,991.93 12,358.84 379.16 4,798.83 6346.14 345.53 3,708.33 5705.58 558.32 5,433.07 5140.08
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Mar ' 11 Other write offs Adjusted PBT Tax charges Adjusted PAT Nonrecurring items Other non cash adjustments Reported net profit Earnings before appropriation Equity dividend Preference dividend Dividend tax Retained earnings 106.17 2,275.68 384.70 1,890.98 -79.16 1,811.82 3,745.95 1,274.23 192.80 2,278.92
Mar ' 10 144.03 2,010.95 589.46 1,421.49 818.59 2,240.08 3,926.07 859.05 132.89 2,934.13
Mar ' 09 51.17 934.01 12.50 921.51 79.75 15.29 1,016.55 2,399.62 311.61 34.09 2,053.92
Mar ' 08 64.35 2,201.72 547.55 1,654.17 374.75 2,028.92 3,042.75 578.43 81.25 2,383.07
Mar ' 07 85.02 2,346.68 660.37 1,686.31 227.15 -0.07 1,913.39 2,690.15 578.07 98.25 2,013.83
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Mahindra And Mahindra:Balance sheet Mar ' 11 Sources of funds Owner's fund Equity share capital Share application money Preference share capital Reserves & surplus Loan funds Secured loans Unsecured loans Total Uses of funds Fixed assets Gross block Less : revaluation reserve Less : accumulated depreciation Net block Capital work-in-progress Investments Net current assets Current assets, loans & advances Less : current liabilities & provisions Total net current assets Miscellaneous expenses not written Excel Business Academy 6,317.09 7,295.55 -978.46 6,224.56 5,081.20 3,816.41 5,619.04 4,797.76 3,468.77 605.52 4.12 283.44 12.55 347.64 13.53 3,916.94 2,854.20 1,062.74 17.55 5,849.27 11.18 2,841.73 2,996.36 1,364.31 9,325.29 4,866.18 4,653.66 3,552.64 11.67 12.09 12.47 3,180.57 12.86 1,639.12 1,528.59 329.72 2,237.46 407.23 1,998.06 602.45 981.00 617.26 106.65 1,529.35 5,176.05 293.62 33.97 9,974.62 282.95 8.01 272.62 239.07 238.03 3,302.01 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07
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Mar ' 11 Total Notes: Book value of unquoted investments Market value of quoted investments Contingent liabilities Number of equity shares outstanding (Lacs) 5,479.48
1,515.23
15,867.60 12,216.75 3,218.81 7,669.90 10,285.25 2,632.10 5872.47 2,020.79 1,220.39 5659.08 2726.16 985.35 2390.73 1,008.27 2380.33
Profit loss account Mar ' 11 Income Operating income Expenses Material consumed Manufacturing expenses Personnel expenses Selling expenses Administrative expenses Expenses capitalized Cost of sales Operating profit Other recurring income Adjusted PBDIT Financial expenses Depreciation 16,402.65 242.26 1,445.56 1,037.56 959.17 -50.87 20,036.33 3,441.20 399.36 3,840.56 70.86 413.86 12,437.87 217.89 1,199.85 802.02 901.45 -59.55 15,499.53 3,016.80 317.99 3,334.79 156.85 370.78 9,365.00 174.05 1,024.52 575.34 700.45 -42.83 11,796.53 1,284.55 305.98 1,590.53 134.12 291.51 7,814.71 164.68 853.65 804.51 561.66 -46.49 10,152.72 1,157.65 364.05 1,521.70 87.59 238.66 6,930.76 134.00 666.15 635.10 466.22 -47.10 8,785.12 1,136.22 404.87 1,541.09 19.80 209.59 23,477.53 18,516.33 13,081.08 11,310.37 9,921.34 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07
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Mar ' 11 Other write offs Adjusted PBT Tax charges Adjusted PAT Non recurring items Other non cash adjustments Reported net profit Earnigs before appropriation Equity dividend Preference dividend Dividend tax Retained earnings 3,355.84 857.51 2,498.33 163.77 2,662.10 7,250.47 706.08 96.56 6,447.83
Mar ' 10 2,807.16 759.00 2,048.16 -32.90 72.49 2,087.75 5,453.07 549.52 74.23 4,829.32
Mar ' 09 1,164.90 199.69 965.21 -173.33 48.97 840.85 3,807.00 278.83 33.23 3,494.94
Mar ' 08 0.59 1,194.86 303.40 891.46 211.91 1,103.37 3,228.45 282.61 38.48 2,907.36
Mar ' 07 0.33 1,311.37 350.10 961.28 126.30 -19.19 1,068.39 2,544.13 282.23 42.50 2,219.40
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MARUTI SUZUKI
Balance sheet Mar ' 11 Sources of funds Owner's fund Equity share capital Share application money Preference share capital Reserves & surplus Loan funds Secured loans Unsecured loans Total Uses of funds Fixed assets Gross block Less : revaluation reserve Less : accumulated depreciation Net block Capital work-in-progress Investments Net current assets Current assets, loans & advances Less : current liabilities & provisions Total net current assets Miscellaneous expenses not written 6,443.10 4,331.00 2,112.10 3,856.00 3,788.40 67.60 5,570.00 3,190.50 3,956.00 3,631.60 3,088.40 2,779.10 1,938.40 102.10 1,176.90 11,737.70 10,406.70 6,208.30 5,529.40 1,428.60 5,106.70 5,382.00 5,024.70 387.60 7,176.60 8,720.60 7,285.30 6,146.80 31.20 278.10 26.50 794.90 0.10 698.80 0.10 900.10 63.50 567.30 144.50 144.50 144.50 144.50 144.50 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07
13,723.00 11,690.60
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Mar ' 11 Total Notes: Book value of unquoted investments Market value of quoted investments Contingent liabilities Number of equity shares outstanding (Lacs) 4,395.60 264.00 5,450.60 2889.10
Mar ' 10
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Mar ' 11 Adjusted PBT Tax charges Adjusted PAT Non recurring items Other non cash adjustments Reported net profit Earnings before appropriation Equity dividend Preference dividend Dividend tax Retained earnings 3,051.00 820.20 2,230.80 38.90 18.90 2,288.60 12,338.50 216.70 35.10 12,086.70
Mar ' 10 3,497.10 1,094.90 2,402.20 44.30 51.10 2,497.60 10,501.80 173.30 28.80 10,299.70
Mar ' 09 1,693.80 457.10 1,236.70 -55.90 37.90 1,218.70 8,244.40 101.10 17.20 8,126.10
Mar ' 08 2,379.60 763.30 1,616.30 37.90 76.60 1,730.80 7,368.10 144.50 24.80 7,198.80
Mar ' 07 2,256.50 705.30 1,551.20 -23.00 33.40 1,561.60 5,947.10 130.00 21.90 5,795.20
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RATIO ANALYSIS OF TATA MOTORS, MARUTI SUZUKI AND MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA EARNINGS PER SHARE
EARNINGS PER SHARE
Interpretations
EPS measures the profit available to the equity shareholders per share, that is, the amount that they can get on every share held. Till 2008 TATA and Maruti had a rising EPS but in 2009 both of them fall and the effect is more on Tata motors because of the slump in domestic and international markets and sharp fall in sales and net profits which resulted in low EPS. Mahindra is not much affected as its sales have increased from the previous year. But as trend shows Mahindra motors has potential so a shareholder can expect better in future.
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SALES
SALES
Mar'07
24,004.12 17,205.88 11,363.05
Mar'08
31,884.69 17,860.28 11,503.48
Mar'09
25,660.79 20,852.52 13,093.68
Mar'10
35,593.05 29,623.01 18,602.11
Mar'11
47,807.42 36,299.74 23,493.72
Interpretations
Maruti and Mahindra show a positive trend in sales over the past five years. Though slowdown in the economy brought hurdles but these companies have potential to grow in future as lots of products are still to add in their portfolio. Moreover increased demand in foreign market also seems to be a positive signal for better future. TATA has witnessed a decline in sales of each segment. Maruti and Mahindra are going swiftly.
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Mar'08 15 5 11.5
Mar'10 15 6 9
DIVIDEND PER SHARE 20 15 Rs 10 5 0 Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 YEARS Mar'10 Mar'11 TATA MARUTI MAHINDRA
Interpretations
Tata motors and Maruti Suzuki both the companies showed a positive trend in paying dividends till 2008, but the scenario changed in 2009 as both the companys dividend per share fell. According to graph Tatas dividend has fallen drastically while Maruti stick to below 5 per share. Mahindra has made a slight reduction from rs.11.5 per share in 2008 to rs.10 per share this year. Therefore Mahindra would be the best option for an investor.
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RETURN ON INVESTMENT
35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 YEARS Mar'10 Mar'11
Interpretations
ROI is one of the most important ratios used for measuring the overall efficiency of a firm and determines whether the investments in the firms are attractive or not. According the graph, ROI of TATA has declined to a large extent in 2009, making it a quite risky investment. Marutis ROI has also declined but Mahindras ROI is showing a higher rate compared to TATA and Maruti in 2009. As the investors would like to invest only where the return is higher, Mahindra would be attractive for investment.
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DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 50 40 % 30 20 10 0 Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 YEARS Mar'10 Mar'11 TATA MARUTI MAHINDRA
Interpretations Dividend payout ratio is the percentage of earnings paid to shareholders in dividends. It provides an idea to an investor of how well earnings support the dividend payments. Maruti has maintained a stable payout ratio. Both TATA and Mahindra have increased their payout ratio in which Mahindra shows a higher payout ratio.
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PRICE EARNINGS RATIO 50 40 % 30 20 10 0 Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 YEARS Mar'10 Mar'11 TATA MARUTI MAHINDRA
Interpretations This ratio is widely used by investors to decide whether or not to buy shares in a particular company. As per the graph, in 2008, the P/E ratio of the three companies was the lowest compared to the previous years. TATA has the highest P/E ratio in 2009 which indicates that it is overvalued, so the investors can benefit by selling the shares. An investor can go for Mahindra as its P/E ratio is the lowest in 2009 which indicates that it is undervalued and there is a scope for growth in the future.
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TATA MOTORS candle bar show that year 2007 its share price near to Rs.175 and after that is fall down and reach its lowest price Rs.45 and its boom in mid of 2010.since year from 2007 the trend line of graph i.e. company stock performance moving downward with slow rate till mid 2008 and after that it moving upward till beginning of year 2011.
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Maruti candle bar show that its price of share in 2007 is Rs.950 and after that its fluctuate or go down its lowest price of share in mid 2008 and its boom in 2009, where the price of share is Rs. above 1.6k.Since year 2008 onwards, the trend line of graph that i.e. company stock performance moving upward direction till end of the year 2009 and beginning of 2010 it started declining with a slow rate.
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M&M candle bar show tha its performance is good after mid of 2008 .in beginning of 2007 , its share price is Rs.450 and end of the year 2011 is near to Rs.800.since from the year 2008 onwards trend line of the graph i.e company stock performance moving in upward direction.
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FINDINGS From the data analysis and interpretations of the ratios and Technical of three companies viz. Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra and Mahindra, the following findings have been given: The three companies were performing well after 2009 with a positive trend in the earnings per share. But there was a downward trend in 2008-09. Especially, TATA has witnessed a steep fall in the year 2009. The sales trend has been upward and positive in case of all the three companies. The sales growth looks positive but in the year 2009, TATAs sales have declined whereas Maruti and Mahindra have maintained the same upward positive trend. In case of dividend per share, there were fluctuations during the period 2008-2009. Due to recession, the dividends per share have declined in all the three companies. Tatas dividend has fallen drastically while Maruti stick to below 5 per share. Mahindra has made a slight reduction from rs.11.5 per share in 2008 to rs.10 per share this year. The return on investment has been fluctuating since 2007 and the year 2009 witnessed low returns in case of all the companies amongst which TATA has the least rate of return. Compared to the three companies, Mahindra has the highest ROI in 2009. Maruti had a stable dividend payout ratio since 2007. TATA and Mahindra have increased their payout ratio in which Mahindra shows a higher payout ratio. The three companies have witnessed a low price earnings ratio in 2008 compared to the previous years. But the ratio increased in 2009 in three companies. TATA has the highest P/E ratio in 2009 which indicates that it is overvalued and Mahindras P/E ratio is the lowest in 2009 which indicates that it is undervalued and there is a scope for growth in the future.
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By analyzing the current trend of Indian Economy and Automobile Industry I have found that being a developing economy there is lot of scope for growth and this industry still has to cross many levels so there are huge opportunities to invest in and this is being proved as more and more foreign companies are setting up there ventures in India. Increase in income level, increase in consumer demand, technology development, globalization, foreign investments are few of the opportunities which the industry has to explore for developing the economy.
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SUGGESTIONS By analyzing the automobile industry with the help of fundamental & technical analysis, it has been revealed that this industry has a lot of potential to grow. So recommending investing in Automobile industry with no doubt is going to be a good and smart option because this industry is booming like never before not only in India but all over the world. The three giants of Indian Automobile industry viz. TATA Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra and Mahindra have outperformed in the industry. From the company analysis, we can know that Mahindra would be a better option for an investor compared to TATA and Maruti. In view of the slump in the domestic and international market, TATA has recorded a slowdown in sales and income level. Its Earnings per share has also declined drastically. It has reduced its dividend per share from rs.15 in the previous year to rs.6 in 2009. The return on investment is also very low. In view of all these, TATA is not a better option for an investor. The global turmoil in financial markets has affected Maruti also. The company is maintaining a stable position. Its sales have grown over past five years. In spite of the general economic slowdown, the sales of Maruti Suzuki increased from Rs 21200 Crore to Rs 23381 Crore. As it is maintaining a stable position, it can be recommended that for now Maruti share price shows that its a time to hold the position or buy more shares as there is scope of further rise in share prices. Despite the challenging business environment, Mahindra has maintained its upward sales level. Its Return on Investment is much higher compared to TATA and Maruti. The dividend per share is rs.10 which is higher amongst the three companies. The company has potential to grow. It would be the best option for the investor. Investing in Maruti Suzuki for long time could be a good option whereas in TATA motors there is a chance of getting correction, as it already went on high side in a very short period of time and is experiencing a downfall from 2008.
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Holding the shares for long time could be a wrong step and at this point of time those who invested earlier can book their profits. As Mahindras shares are undervalued, the investor can buy these shares. This is because a relatively lower P/E would save investors from paying a very high price that does not justify the value of an investment.
Few Suggestions for Right Stock Selection There are three factors which an investor must consider for selecting the right stocks. Business: An investor must look into what kind of business the company is doing, visibility of the business, its past track record, capital needs of the company for expansion etc. Balance Sheet: The investor must focus on its key financial ratios such as earnings per share, price-earnings ratio; debt-equity ratio, dividends per share etc and he must also check whether the company is generating cash flows. Bargaining: This is the most important factor which shows the true worth of the company. An investor needs to choose valuation parameters which suit its business.
Investment rules Invest for long term in equity markets Align your thought process with the business cycle of the company. Set the purpose for investment. Long term goals should be the objective of equity investment. Disciplined investment during market volatility helps attains profits. Planning, Knowledge and Discipline are very crucial for investment.
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CONCLUSION The Automobile industry in India is the seventh largest in the world with an annual production of over 4.6 million units in 2011. In 2011, India emerged as Asia's fourth largest exporter of automobiles, behind Japan, South Korea and Thailand. The collapse in market place witnessed unprecedented turbulence in the wake of global financial meltdown. A runaway inflation touching a high point of 12% early in the year, the tight monetary policies followed by the authorities for most of the year to control inflation with the consequent high interest rates and weak consumer demand, have collectively had a devastating effect on the automotive sector. Maruti Suzuki India LTD. company has a trend of growth from till 2008.During the financial year 2008-09 the there is downfall in the growth of the company. The main reason behind this downfall is because of the global recession. The downfall of net profit during the financial year 2008-09 is 29.6% over the financial year 2007-2008. TATA Motors, which was trying to consolidate its leadership position in the market, also had to face the impact of global meltdown. Amid the crippling economic crisis, Tata purchased Britains Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) from Ford Motor Company. Acquiring JLR saddled Tata with some tough losses. Dividends and earnings remain low. In spite of it being a tough year for all the companies across the globe and in India, Mahindra has given a satisfactory performance. At present its shares are undervalued giving it a potential for growth. Global recession had a dampener effect on the growth of automobile industry but it was a short term phenomenon. The industry is bouncing back. One factor favoring this point is that India has become a hot destination for companies of diverse nature to invest in. Cut throat competition among top companies, lots of new car and vehicle model launches at regular intervals keeps the Indian auto sector moving. Excel Business Academy Page 79
A continuous effort at cost cutting and improving productivity will help the companies in making reasonable profits despite the impact of higher commodity prices and weaker rupee.
The analysis gives an optimistic view about the industry and its growth which recommends the investors to keep a good watch on the major players to benefit in terms of returns on their investments.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Text Books Security Analysis and Portfolio Management by Punithavathy Pandian, Vikas Publications. Security analysis and portfolio management by V.A. Avadhani Financial Markets and Services by Gordon and Natarajan, Himalaya Publications. Financial Management by Shashi K Gupta and R. K Sharma, Kalyani Publications. Newspapers Economic times Business line Websites
www.nseindia.com www.bseindia.com www.investopedia.com www.moneycontrol.com www.indiainfoline.com www.sebi.gov.in www.tatamotors.com www.marutisuzuki.com www.mahindra.com www.yahoofinance.com
CNBC TV18 The Informed Investor supported by SEBI and presented by NSE
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