Presented by: DR.

NISHA ARORA
1

Basic Terminology Mutually Exclusive Events Probability Independent Events Conditional Probability Addition Theorem Multiplication Theorem

An experiment performed repeatedly essentially under the same conditions Trial: Toss a coin 20 times

Trial: Throw a die 50 times

Trial: Draw a card from the deck of playing cards

The possible outcomes of the experiment Event: Getting Head or Tail

Event: Rolling a 3 on a die

Event: Getting an ace

The total possible outcomes of a trail In a throw of a die Number of exhaustive events = 6

H
T

H T H T

In a toss of two coins Number of exhaustive events = 4

In a draw of a playing card from the deck Number of exhaustive events = 52

The outcomes of a trail which cause the happening of a particular event. A = Getting an even number = {2, 4, 6} Number of favorable events = 3
B = Getting a number less than 4 = {1, 2, 3} Number of favorable events = 3.

Throw of a die

C = Getting a king Number of favorable events = 4

Draw of a card

The set of all possible outcomes of a trail In a toss of a coin S = {H, T} In a throw of a die S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

In a toss of two coins S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}

The events are said to be equally likely events, if none of them is expected to occur in preference to other. For Example

In a toss of an unbiased coin

P (H) = P (T) = 1/2

In a throw of a fair die

P (1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) = 1/6

The events which can not occur simultaneously

In a draw of a card from a deck of playing cards A = The card drawn is a club

B = The card drawn is a heart

Events A and B are mutually exclusive events

If a random experiment results in n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely events, out of which m are favorable to the happening of event E, then the probability of occurrence of event E is

P(E) =
=

Number of favorable events Number of exhaustive events m n

Probability can be expressed in terms of fraction, percentage, decimal or ratio.

Probability of each event is a number between 0 and 1 inclusive i. e., 0 P(E) 1 Probability of impossible event is zero.
Probability of certain event is one. The sum of probabilities of all possible events is equals to one i.e., P(E) =1

Number of exhaustive cases

= Total number of balls in the urn = =5+4=9 = Number of blue balls in the urn = =4 P(Blue Ball) = 4/9 Hence, the probability of blue ball is Number of favorable cases

The non-happening of event complementary event EC of event E.

is

called

P(EC) = 1 P(E)
If the probability of rain is 20% or 0.2 then the probability of the complement (no rain) is 1 - 0.2 = 0.8 or 80%

Independent Event: happening/non-happening of event does not depend on occurrence of other event.
Dependent Event: independent events.

The one the

The events which are not

In tossing an unbiased coin event of getting a head in the 1st toss is independent of getting a head in the 2nd toss.

From a bag containing three red and five blue balls. Draw two balls one by one. Let 1st drawn ball is red and 2nd drawn ball is blue. If the drawn ball is replaced P (R1) = 3/8, P(B2) = 5/8 These events are independent events. If the drawn ball is not replaced P (R1) = 3/8, P(B2) = 5/7 These events are dependent events.

The probability of event A provided event B has already happened.

P( A B) P (A|B) = P( B)

Concept
If

an event B has occurred, instead of S, we consider B only. The conditional probability of A given B will be the ratio of that part of a which is included in B i.e. P(AB) to the probability of B.

Draw a card from a deck of playing cards.

What is the probability that the card is a king when it is a red card?

A = The drawn card is a king B = The drawn card is a red card

P (B) = P (Red card)

= 26/52

And P (A B) = P (King & red card)

= 2/52
P( A B) By definition, P (A|B) = P( B) 2 / 52 = = 1/13 26 / 52

Concept
There are total 26 red cards out of which we have to find the probability that a king is drawn. Exhaustive events = Total number of red cards = 26 Favorable events = Number of kings of red cards =2

Hence
P(King|Red card) = 2/26 = 1/13

For two events A and B, probability of happening atleast one of them is P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) If the events A and B are mutually exclusive i.e. P(AB) =0, then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)

AB

AB =

What is the probability that he will pass atleast one test. Lets define the events A = The student pass physics test B = The student pass maths test

P(A)= 0.65,

P(B)= 0.55

P(He pass both the test) = P(AB) = 0.25 P (He passes atleast one test) = P(AB)

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) ,

= 0.65 + 0.55 - 0.25 = 0.95

Lets define the events A = Rolling an even number {2, 4, 6} B= Rolling a three {3} P(A)= 3/6, P(B)= 1/6
P(even number or three) = P(AB) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B),

(As the events are mutually exclusive)

P(AB) = 3/6 + 1/6 = 4/6 =2/3

For two events A and simultaneous happening is Or

B,

probability P(A) > 0 P(B) > 0

of

their

P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A), P(A B) = P(B) P(A|B),

If the events A and B are independent i.e. P(A|B) = P(A) & P(B|A) = P(B), then
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

Lets define the events A = Getting 1st red card,

B = Getting 2nd red card

P(A) = 26/52 (As there are 26 red cards out of 52 playing cards) P(B|A) = P(2nd card is red| 1st card was red) = 25/51 (As the 1st drawn card is not replaced) P(Both cards are red) = P(AB) P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A) (As the events are dependent)

26 25 52 51

Lets define the events A = Getting a head {H}, B = Getting a four {4}, P(A) = P(B) = 1/6

P(head & four) = P(AB)

P(AB) = P(A) P(B), As the events are independent.

P(AB) =
=

1 1 2 6
1 12

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