POST ELECTION SCENARIOS IN MYANMAR - A GEOPOL ANALYSIS Myanmar is strategically one of the most important countries on Indias Eastern

periphery both in terms of security and economic integration of the North East and even more importantly as a continental strategic land bridge with SE Asia. Myanmar needs to be seen as a continental gateway to ASEAN and further on to East Asia. Strong economic and political relationship with Myanmar affords India direct over land access to SE Asian markets replicating in a sense what the Chinese have been able to do within the ambit of Greater Mekong Sub Regioni.e. political and economic integration. Such an overland linkage will greatly support the BIMSTEC and help India to achieve over time economic and political consolidation with all its Eastern neighbours. Following somewhat imperfect poll, which has been a focus of much media scrutiny, this analysis is an assessment of likely future of Myanmar over the next ten years horizon in terms of what if format for both strategic planners and community. It needs to be underscored a large number of factors will determine Myanmars post poll future. These range from post electoral political structures and the role of the military and participation by different groups, in the new governance structure. Myanmar coming to grips with its ethnic pulls that threaten a return to heightened violence, and consequent migration from its border regions to neighbours unwilling to share the burden. Myanmars macroeconomic management, relationships with neighbours, EU and USA and in the final count, the nuclear ambitions of its new leadership if any would be major drivers. Myanmars flirting with nuclear ambitions if at all will it make it a pariah in Southeast Asian but on the international plane as well, particularly as the world cannot afford to have another North Korea emerging at the junction of South and SE Asia. For India, Myanmar is critical not just because of Northeast militants bases, but also the spreading Chinese influence in Myanmar together with growing footprints in neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal, providing former an important military-strategic advantages in its forward to the oceans policy. In short, it may be said that the stakes are high for both Myanmars people, peripheral nations and globally, as the new generation of leadership prepares to step in to govern Myanmar. Analysis of Trends and Drivers A host of drivers will decide the path Myanmar takes over the next five years or more. Drivers are essentially forces in play that have decisive influence on shaping future outcomes. Alternative future scenarios are affected by the possible developments in one factor and its dynamic interaction with other factors. Before proceeding further it is important to briefly define what exactly we mean by drivers. Simply put these are those forces that drive current developments in a particular direction. These are dynamic in nature and their interplay could lead to degree of uncertainties in defining the futures. An important issue is to determine path of which of these driving forces is relatively certain and which most uncertain. Those drivers whose outcome can take multiple paths and are not easy to determine are referred to critically uncertain drivers, some

pathways are clearly discernable such drivers are called least uncertain or predictable drivers. Taking from above Military as an example is a predictable driver i.e. it will remain salient to the future of Myanmar. However internal dynamics, resulting out of electoral process and the manner of militaries electoral and post electoral conduct makes internal dynamics an uncertain driver whose outcome is not easy to predict. Identification of Key Drivers Taking cognisance of above major drivers that will shape Myanmars future are identified as under: Post Election Scenario. The issues that are relevant in analysis of this driver are; the conduct of elections i.e. peaceful or violent, including possible rigging (advance voting), nature of representation of non military political parties, perception of people about the verdict, number of seats won by USDP, participation by ethnic minorities, nature of post electoral governance arrangement, and role of old military formation like the National Unity Party.

Internal Dynamics issues here are inter-se relationship between the military and the social groups. Is there visible alienation of the people against the Junta for holding sham elections? Nature of protest if any? The role of the Buddhist clergy, (who are an important factor), and the ethnic groups that continue to defy the military. Ethnic Armed Cease Fire Groups (EACFG). Issues of consequence are their relative state in terms ofrelatively subdued owing to counter insurgency operations or accretion of violence if major groups initiate hostilities one again against the state. Implications of accretion in violence? Will it result in a flux of refugees in neighbouring counties as a consequence? Impact on narcotic trade; will it lead to increase in narcotic trade to support their operations against the state and its impact on border regions of India and China. Nature and degree of outside support to these groups will also prove to be a strong driver, as also their relationships with Indian Insurgent Groups. Myanmar Economy is a strong driver in determining the course of stability in Myanmar. Important aspect for the future stability of the country is will economy grow post elections or begin to falter. Myanmars trade volumes both border and international are important issues. These will however be dictated by FDI which will largely be the function of sanction regime and relations with China and India, pricing of natural resources and communication infrastructure in particular the Asian highway projects that run through the country. China. Relations between China and Myanmar are an important driver. Aspects that will require analysis include; the Yunnan Factor in terms of this being driven by the convergence of local and national interests, border security and Stability including renewed conflict on Sino Myanmar border, Myanmar as a Land Bridge for strategic

access to the Indian Ocean, Chinese investments in strategic sectors, energy security and the Malacca Dilemma and last but importantly nature and extent of military to military to military cooperation. What are is nature of fissures and friction between the two countries that could become potential source of conflict.

The India factor too is pre-eminent when Myanmars future is viewed. Issues that require to be examined are Indian stakes in political security and stability of Myanmar in various scenarios. Nature of strategic investments and preservation of Indian strategic interests. Is it possible to use Myanmar as a Strategic Land Bridge to SE Asia akin to China using it to the Indian Ocean? Another important issue is the NE insurgency and ties with military Junta to deal with this important issue and enhance Indian leverages. Next the growth of Chinese investments is not in our interests, especially the strategic and military pay offs that may accrue to the Chinese from their efforts. Other drivers include the ASEAN, US and EU. These are countries that also have a stake in a stable and free Myanmar, and would try to influence events in that country to suit their needs. Myanmars nuclear ambition is a critical driver. While the induction of an aggressive leadership would hasten the pace, a prudent leadership will possibly focus on economic growth. Nuclear ambitions will also determine Myanmars geopolitical alignments, just as they will invite responses from the West.

Possible Alternative Futures of Myanmar From the analysis of drivers which is an elaborate exercise three main scenario defining drivers could be named that will shape Myanmars political and economic future. These are Internal Dynamics (Includes electoral process), China and Ethnic Insurgent Groups. Taking cognisance of these together with other supporting drivers which include, Myanmar economy, India, ASEAN, US, EU and attempts at acquiring nuclear capability, four possible alternatives could emerge in terms of Myanmars future, which will have serious ramifications on Indian national security.

Scenario 1: Dragon on the Roll This Scenario could be the fall out of relatively trouble free military managed electoral political process, and subsequent constitutional promulgation. Main determinant of this scenario will be the overbearing salience of Military in governance and domination of political process and control over levers of actual power through the newly created National Security Council. This could lead to infighting and unsettled equations within the new ruling hierarchy comprising largely ex military SPDP cadres and new military elites who have assumed power post retirement of large number of senior military leadership to fight elections. In addition lack of transparency and rigged voting could lead to dismay and disquiet within political actors who feel cheated by the whole democratic process being a sham. West and ASEAN put pressure on the Myanmar government to allow promised political freedom and as a consequence sanction regime is tightened. ASEAN too which till now had maintained a relatively low profile having been rebuffed by the Junta on the issue of independent observers, now starts to pressurise on transparent and inclusive political process? Ethnic Groups who had initially joined are feeling stifled by overbearing attitude of military dominated government. They issue ultimatum to the government that they will be forced to initiate hostilities again if their legitimate demands are not met. These are ignored by the government. Ethnic groups retaliate by series of orchestrated attacks on power project sights and pipeline projects among other military controlled industrial and economic targets, sending a clear message that they will not be cowed down. These developments have an economic impact in drawing down of the economy creating social tensions and people come out on streets in what can be called food riots. Only saving grace is that rising crude prices are providing beleaguered government some relief. This is however marginal having parcelled all their rights to Chinese MNCs against fixed price long-term contracts. Isolated Junta is forced to look toward China for both political and developmental assistance, allowing China to increase its salience in Myanmar. In a series of joint naval exercises, China deploys its SSN and other latest ships including Sovermenny class destroyers. The scenario from here on has two distinct pathways. Junta can do course correction to address to meet growing internal challenges and allow political process to fructify by loosening control, secure in its capacity to manage this change. This will be the function of enlightened new military leadership. On the other hand it could become more insular and begin using China as a crutch. From Indian point of view the developments in Myanmar are both an opportunity and challenge. A strong and cooperative relationship with Junta could endear the new military led government toward positive process by assuring that it has many options other than China. This could be done by India mixing political engagement with sound, transparent fiscal engagement. India can buttress these efforts by ensuring ASEAN and West is more sensitive to Myanmars needs and that the phase is transitory. A pro active Indian engagement will also send a message to Indias neighbourhood of India

walking its talk in safeguarding its interests and investing in stability of its periphery. The crunch however will be improved delivery in Indian promises. Hindu rate of project execution and policy engagement will be a counterproductive. Scenario 2: In Chinas Orbit This scenario will be an outcome of deteriorating internal situation post flawed elections. An economically and politically under pressure Myanmars military dominated regime tighten its political grip to deal with growing internal dissent. Situation is exacerbated by Ethnic Groups rebelling and challenging the central military authority. Economy sharply declines; isolated government has little option but to seek Chinese political and economic support. Incremental increase in Chinese influence is the outcome and it manifests in greater concessions to China including China developing strong direct infrastructural linkages with SE Asia through calibrated rail and road links, that provide Chinese land locked Southern provinces access to the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal in the India Ocean. Greater Chinese access to develop military oriented port and other facilities along the West coast of Myanmar remain a distinct possibility. This is adverse scenario from Indian point of view as this could result in China firmly implanting its footprint in Myanmar and the country suffering what can be termed as Mandalay effect in terms of Chinese dominance. There are two serious negative consequences for India one, in case Myanmar provides China military concessions through an agreement to allow PLAN ships to refit and repair facilities in addition to R&R, then Myanmar could become forward Chinese outpost as part of its forward march to Ocean strategy and Malacca Dilemma. Second, it will impact regional politics in terms of allowing countries like Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka playing balancing games with India to seek more concessions or to restrain Indian interest e.g. Tamil problem, migration from Bangladesh support to insurgencies etc. India will need to follow a policy of cautious engagement and ensure our political and economic interests are not sacrificed in this policy of expediency. Indian problems will be to either to support the regime or in concert with Western and ASEAN pressure Myanmars government for course correction toward moderation and democratic process. This could also result in added impetus to NE insurgency groups including China providing arms assistance. With little incentive to open; NE will continue to be mired in insurgency and could result in growing cross border agreement. Myanmar could also under pressure from China renege on projects like Kaladan or other concessions to India. Developments if not controlled could provide a trigger for Indo China confrontation. Scenario 3: All is well This scenario will be an outcome of ushering in of stable inclusive political process which will be a function of ruling military junta developing stakes in peace, stability and internal cohesion. This will be the outcome of consummation of democratic reform

process leading to promulgation and more importantly accepting and abiding by the new constitution. It is well understood that military control over Myanmar politics is unlikely to end post elections. What is however important is that Myanmar Junta opted for an inclusive democratic reform process over Chinese model of tight party control, even though military will continue to oversee political developments? In that sense there is all likelihood of over period Myanmar may see genuine build up of democratic institutions and ushering in of democratic process even though it remains a military guided democracy. This scenario perceives incremental shift toward genuine democracy, rule of law and growing personal freedom and transparency. In the evolution of such a scenario incrementally the warring Ethnic Groups sensing opportunity will be inclined to engage the political system to safeguard their interests and if incentives are provided as indeed the military junta was attempting prior to elections to make them part of inclusive process. Above scenario also bodes well for economic development of the state. With Myanmar moving toward open democratic model albeit overseen by military and increasing degree of transparency, could lead to a situation where in US and EU shed their intransigence and engage Myanmar creating conditions for increasing investments and trade. In such a scenario ASEAN will also follow suit. There is no doubt that in the evolution of this scenario China will continue to remain predominant economic player in Myanmar, and wield considerable significance. It is however needs to be recognised that with opening up other players will also influence Myanmar politics and investments decisions, forcing China to yield both political and economic ground. The scenario provides India for proactively engaging Myanmar, through increased infrastructural and trade investments. With military continuing to be the pivot, India can use its growing leverages to deal with NE Insurgents taking shelters a process which could be expedited by Ethnic Groups becoming more responsive. Indian infrastructural projects can see India undertaking to link the Indian leg of Asian Highway which is now being developed in Myanmar for access to SE Asia. Another major advantage will be opening up of NE, cry for which is becoming shriller. Take for example present developments wherein blockade by United Naga Council is forcing Manipur Government to seek Centres permission to import fuel from Myanmar. Similarly with Kaladan Project coming on stream connectivity with Myanmar will improve allowing India to develop closer trade and economic relations. This scenario if it comes will come about in an evolutionary manner bode well for India and will help in stabilising its periphery. As mentioned above it needs to be underscored that mere post electoral consolidation will not push Myanmar toward this scenario but comprehensive engagement and encouragement to the new government and the Military who having embarked in this process of change will help in creating this scenario over time.

Scenario4: Turbulent Periphery. This scenario characterizes, on one hand Myanmars version of inclusive political process and improving internal dynamics on the one hand and ethnic groups, remaining uncompromised and challenging state authority, leading to upsurge of insurgency and number of groups joining on the other. Another perspective of this scenario could be as a result of Scenarios 1 or 2 where in Junta tighten its control over internal politics leading to growing civil unrest and Ethnic Groups unsatisfied with skewed democratic process military further tightening its grip over national governance and lack of representation to ethnic minorities leads to renewal of violence. Although some analysts view that these groups do not have adequate resources to challenge the military in any meaningful manner nonetheless they retain the ability to undertake limited militant operations including hit and run attacks. The scenario envisages especially strong ethnic groups such as the United WA State Party UWSP, the Kachin Independence organization KIO and the New Mon State Party NMSP that have refused to be transformed into border guards once again taking up the gun. As a result situation around the periphery particularly, North, NE and East could become tense with ethnic groups such as Karen, Karenni, Shan and Pa-O Liberation army continuing their fight. Above could result in thousands of people being displaced and fleeing to Thailand and China. Revived insurgency also has the potential of disrupting Beijings plans of connecting Sittwe and Yunnan through oil and gas pipelines and proposed rail link from Yunnan to Mandalay on to Malaysia Singapore. With political options declining only course open would be to mount large scale operations; given past experience could degenerate into a protracted insurgency making it politically vulnerable. The scenario apart from destabilising internal dynamics in Myanmar and causing friction in Myanmar China relations has the potential of increasing support to NE insurgents as also a nexus between these could result which may include arms and drug transfers. Situation in Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram can get exacerbated with local groups joining the fray. Coordinated operations also may suffer as Myanmar Army will be hard pressed in dealing with own Ethnic Groups with little inclination to go after NE insurgents. It is envisaged that while Myanmar junta may be able to deal with the situation it will however create internal disturbances and provide inclination to the Junta to tighten its control impacting social dynamics, political process and economy. This scenario could propel Myanmar increasingly towards Chinas Orbit. Owing to insurgency and fighting Indian plans of infrastructural development will also suffer as indeed projects like Kaladan. Scenario Interpretation or How Will they Interplay?

Above scenarios depict possible futures depending upon the condition of the three main drivers outlined above. It is important to note that all scenarios will at best be in dynamic conditions and constant state of flux depending upon the interplay of main drivers with others. As an example Myanmar from Dragon on the Roll could easily begin to move towards All is Well, if the new regime changes tack and realises the advantage of greater international engagement forced in the least by growing social unrest deteriorating economic conditions or coming to fore of new enlightened leadership. On the other hand deteriorating geopolitics of Asia in terms of standoff between US and China with Indian Ocean and or South China Sea becoming an arena of competition could push Myanmar in becoming a pawn in the balance of power dynamics in SE Asia on the one hand and on the other internal dynamics become critical owing to growing agitation agents government policies, Buddhist monks entering the fray and repeat of 1994 forcing even harsher crackdown making the regime even more dependent upon China in what can be seen as a push toward Chinese Orbit. What is important from Indian policy analysis is to create conditions through engagement, leverages as also through multilateral engagement to prevent growth of Chinese influence and incremental increase of Indian and push toward stability and political inclusion. It is important therefore that Indias policy perspective must reflect this engagement strategy. Another issue is the imperative of using Myanmar as a strategic land bridge which entails economic and infrastructural development of NE and projects that provide trans SE Asian connectivity.

Scenario Interplay Conclusion As anticipated elections in Myanmar have thrown up predictable results, SPDP has one landslide victory where as democratic parties have barely managed few seats in what can be termed as managed elections. What is surprising that despite reserving twenty five percent seats for the military and massive infusion of funds for the SPDP, yet the junta felt the need advance voting leading to cry of bogus elections. Inspite of above infirmities the candidates belonging to democratic parties did well in open voting and lost only due to clubbing of advance vote. It underscores the point that despite manipulation desire of the people is openness, freedom and restoration of democratic rights. Second; in the provincial elections ethnic groups have done well with

very high vote percentage, clearly highlighting pluralistic and federal manifestation of regional electorate. Third is the fact that with large number of senior officers now donning civvies will have greater stakes in transparent and inclusive governance than the Military Junta, because there future will be underpinned by the nature of governance in terms of peace, stability and improved economy. Rising middle class constituting nearly 30 percent of population will demand improved socio economic conditions. Given the fact that a mini step has been taken by Myanmar in restoring law and order and democratic system, world needs to encourage the new dispensation by accommodation and plodding them toward the path of political reconciliation, transparency and effective utilisation of national resources to address the economic demands of the populace. Narrow view of making junta given in through sanctions and restrictions has not worked and will not. Elections provide challenge for the new civilian regime and the international community to help Myanmar shake off its militaristic path and incrementally become open and inclusive society. Neighbours like India and ASEAN have great stakes in stability of Myanmar. Brigadier Arun Sahgal is Consultant Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, and Distinguished Fellow School of Geopolitics Manipal Academy of Higher Education. Related articles

Factbox: Key facts about Myanmar (reuters.com) Do China and India hold key to Myanmar reform? (cnn.com) Suu Kyi release could smooth Myanmars economic ties (thehimalayantimes.com)