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Bosch
Performance Highlights
Y/E Dec (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT 2QCY12 2,174 329 15.1 247 2QCY11 2,060 379 18.4 279 % chg (yoy) 5.6 (13.2) (327)bp (11.3) 1QCY12 2,295 478 20.8 336 % chg (qoq) (5.3) (31.1) (567)bp (26.3)
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Auto Ancillary 27,260 (1,857) 0.3 9,300/6,425 1,288 10 17,657 5,363 BOSH.BO BOS@IN
`8,681 -
Bosch (BOS) reported lower-than-expected results for 2QCY2012 primarily due to raw-material cost pressures and a sharp increase in other expenditure which led to a 327bp yoy (567bp qoq) contraction in the operating margin. While rawmaterial cost pressures were on account of INR depreciation; other expenditure increased led by inflationary pressures and one time tooling cost of `20cr. We have revised downwards our earnings estimates to factor in the slowdown in the automotive sector and weak exports demand coupled with margin pressure due to unfavorable currency movement. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. Margin pressures impact operating performance: For 2QCY2012, BOS reported a slightly lower-than-expected top-line growth of 5.6% yoy (down 5.3% mom) to `2,174cr due to sluggish growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) and tractor industry sales. The automotive segment revenues grew by a modest 5.1% yoy (down 4.4% qoq) due to flat growth in the diesel systems segment and 12% yoy decline in exports revenue. On the other hand, the non-auto segment posted a strong growth of 19.9% yoy (down 11.2% qoq) during the quarter. The EBITDA margin fell sharply by 327bp yoy (567bp qoq) to 15.1%, primarily on account of increase in raw-material expenses led by INR depreciation (~100bp impact on the margins). Further, other expenditure too increased by 200bp yoy (280bp qoq) on account of inflationary pressures and one time tooling cost of `20cr (~100bp impact on EBITDA margin). Hence, the net profit posted a lower-than-expected bottom-line of `247cr, witnessing a decline of 11.3% yoy (26.3% qoq). Outlook and valuation: While we are positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technological leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio; we expect the near-term environment to remain challenging for the company given the slowdown in the CV and tractor industry. At `8,681, BOS is fairly valued at 19.9x CY2013E earnings. Thus, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 71.2 15.0 6.4 7.4
3m 10.2 (2.2)
1yr 5.5
3yr 14.6
19.3 122.0
CY2010 6,882 37.8 858 63.0 18.2 273.4 31.8 6.7 20.9 26.2 3.5 23.4
CY2011 8,141 18.3 1,066 24.2 18.3 339.6 25.6 5.8 22.6 27.6 2.9 16.7
CY2012E 9,034 11.0 1,173 10.0 17.8 373.6 23.2 4.8 20.5 24.3 2.5 15.1
CY2013E 10,286 13.8 1,368 16.6 18.3 435.8 19.9 4.0 19.8 23.9 2.2 12.4
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QCY12 2,174 743 34.2 248 11.4 495 22.8 359 16.5 1,845 329 15.1 76 89 342 342 15.7 94 27.6 247 247 11.4 31.4 78.8 78.8
2QCY11 2,060 564 27.4 236 11.4 582 28.3 299 14.5 1,681 379 18.4 50 72 401 401 19.5 122 30.5 279 279 13.5 31.4 88.8 88.8
% chg (yoy) 5.6 31.7 5.1 (14.9) 20.2 9.8 (13.2) 52.3 23.1 (14.8) (14.8) (22.9) (11.3) (11.3)
1QCY12 2,295 728 31.7 249 10.9 526 22.9 315 13.7 1,818 478 20.8 64 67 480 480 20.9 144 30.1 336 336 14.6 31.4
% chg (qoq) (5.3) 2.0 (0.6) (5.8) 14.2 1.5 (31.1) (27.3) 18.7 33.3 (28.8) (28.8) (34.6) (26.3) (26.3)
1HCY12 4,469 1,471 32.9 497 11.1 1,021 22.8 674 15.1 3,662 807 18.0 140 156 822 822 18.4 239 29.1 583 583 13.1 31.4
1HCY11 4,145 1,310 31.6 451 10.9 1,011 24.4 600 14.5 3,372 773 18.6 (46) 97 84 805 805 19.4 252 31.3 553 553 13.3 31.4 176.2 176.2
% chg (yoy) 7.8 12.3 10.0 1.0 12.4 8.6 4.3 44.1 86.3 2.1 2.1 (5.3) 5.4 5.4
(11.3) (11.3)
106.9 106.9
(26.3) (26.3)
185.8 185.8
5.4 5.4
Top-line up 5.6% yoy: For 2QCY2012 BOS posted a subdued growth of 5.6% yoy (down 5.3% qoq) in its top-line to `2,174cr, marginally lower-than-estimates, on account of sluggish CV and tractor sales. The automotive segment revenues grew by a modest 5.1% yoy (down 4.4% qoq) due to the flat growth in the diesel systems segment and 12% yoy decline in exports revenue. However, the automotive & electrical and power tools segments witnessed a strong growth of 40% and 20% yoy respectively. On the other hand, the non-auto segment posted a strong growth of 19.9% yoy (down 11.2% qoq) during the quarter.
2QCY12 1,922 244 2,166 9 2,157 276 8 284 (58) 342 14.3 3.2 13.1
2QCY11 1,828 204 2,032 13 2,018 335 21 355 (46) 401 18.3 10.2 17.5
% chg 5.1 19.9 6.6 6.9 (17.6) (61.7) (20.2) 26.8 (14.8)
1QCY12 2,010 275 2,285 18 2,268 423 27 450 (30) 480 21.1 9.8 19.7
% chg (4.4) (11.2) (5.2) (47.7) (4.9) (34.8) (70.7) (37.0) 94.4 (28.8)
1HCY12 3,932 520 4,452 27 4,425 699 35 734 (88) 822 17.8 6.7 16.5
1HCY11 3,673 431 4,104 18 4,086 684 42 726 46 (33) 805 18.6 9.7 17.7
% chg 7.1 20.7 8.5 8.3 2.1 (16.0) 1.1 164.5 2.1
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
EBITDA margin declines sharply to 15.1%: BOS registered a sharp drop in its EBITDA margin to 15.1%, down 327bp yoy (567bp qoq) and significantly lower than our estimates of 20.1%. The sharp fall in the EBITDA margin was on account of increase in raw-material expenses led by INR depreciation and higher other expenditure. Raw-material expenses as a percentage of sales grew 130bp yoy (232bp qoq) mainly on account of INR depreciation which impacted the margins by ~100bp. Other expenditure as a percentage of sales too expanded by 200bp yoy (280bp qoq) due to inflationary pressures and one time tooling cost of `20cr (~100bp impact on EBITDA margin). Thus, the operating profit declined sharply by 13.2% yoy (31.1% qoq) to `329cr.
2QCY12
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
Weak operating performance impacts bottom-line: The companys net profit registered a decline of 11.3% yoy (26.3% qoq) to `247cr which was 21.6% lower than our estimates, primarily due to a weak performance at the operating level. However, a lower tax-rate (at 27.6% vs 30.5% in 2QCY2011) benefitted the bottom-line to a certain extent during the quarter.
2QCY12
Investment arguments
Technology-intensive industry supplemented by high bargaining power: We estimate BOS to post a ~13% CAGR in its top-line and bottom-line over CY2011-13E. The company enjoys high margins in the auto component segment due to high entry barriers and its dominant position in the market. Nonetheless, due to a decline in utilization levels (~70-75% across plants) and INR depreciation, we expect margins to remain under pressure in 2HCY2012. However, localization initiatives will benefit margins in the long run. Dependent on favorable CV cycle for growth: BOS' prospects are largely derived from demand arising in the CV and tractor segments, which are estimated to post a CAGR of 8-10% over the next couple of years. Further, greater visibility on newer growth opportunities is emerging for the company, following its investments in new and innovative technologies such as CRS and gasoline systems. We believe the company will continue to enjoy premium valuations, owing to strong parental focus and increasing long-term growth opportunities in the Indian market, facilitated by changes in emission norms. Moreover, BOS has been a consistent performer with strong cash flows in the Indian auto component industry.
While we are positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technological leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio; we expect the near-term environment to remain challenging for the company given the slowdown in the CV and tractor industry. We expect BOS to register a ~13% CAGR each in its net sales and net profit over CY2011-13E. As a result, we estimate BOS to post an EPS of `373.6 and `435.8 for CY2012E and CY2013E respectively. At `8,681, BOS is fairly valued at 19.9x CY2013E earnings. Thus, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Aug-05
Dec-09
Jan-03
Jun-06
Nov-03
Mar-08
Nov-10
May-07
Aug-12
0.0
Feb-09
Sep-04
Sep-11
Feb-09
May-07
Aug-05
Dec-09
Sep-11
Jun-06
Mar-08
Feb-04
Sep-10
Dec-06
Sep-11
Jan-05
Jan-06
Mar-03
Nov-07
Nov-08
Aug-12
Apr-02
Oct-09
Feb-09
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jun-08
Jul-10
Nov-10
Nov-09
Mar-11
Nov-11
Aug-12
Oct-07
Aug-12
P/E (x) FY13E FY14E 12.1 9.3 14.7 23.2 18.0 14.4 12.9 6.3 10.5 8.0 11.9 19.9 14.5 12.3 9.6 5.0
EV/EBITDA (x) FY13E 7.0 4.9 7.3 15.1 9.9 8.5 5.9 4.4 FY14E 5.9 3.8 6.1 12.4 7.7 6.8 4.6 3.9
RoE (%) FY13E 28.8 21.2 19.9 20.5 19.0 22.8 26.2 9.8 FY14E 26.2 21.2 20.9 19.8 20.2 21.7 28.4 11.8
FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 20.5 6.2 19.3 13.3 29.7 10.8 54.6 6.4
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end
Company background
Bosch, promoted by Robert Bosch GmbH, is the largest auto ancillary company in India and a dominant player in the fuel injection segment with ~75% market share. The company has a diverse product portfolio of diesel and gasoline fuel injection systems, automotive aftermarket products, auto electricals, special purpose machines, packaging machines, electric power tools and security systems. The automotive segment contributes 90% to BOS' total revenue. The company also has one of the largest distribution networks of spare parts in the country, with after-market component sales accounting for ~20% of revenue. BOS has five manufacturing facilities located at Bangalore, Nasik, Naganathpura, Jaipur and Goa.
10
Key ratios
Y/E Dec Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.5) (2.0) 63.5 (0.7) (2.7) 428.4 (0.6) (2.1) (0.5) (1.5) (0.5) (1.9) 2,697.1 (0.6) (2.0) 2,806.1 1.9 41 51 59 29 1.8 42 49 61 31 2.3 37 36 60 25 2.5 45 38 65 39 2.4 48 38 67 49 2.4 48 38 67 48 18.9 19.4 17.9 15.3 13.5 15.6 26.2 28.2 20.9 27.6 28.3 22.6 24.3 25.5 20.5 23.9 25.9 19.8 12.0 0.7 2.3 19.8 2.4 (0.6) 10.1 10.6 0.7 2.2 16.9 0.3 (0.6) 7.0 15.0 0.7 2.6 28.1 1.0 (0.6) 10.5 15.5 0.7 2.4 26.4 0.1 (0.6) 11.8 14.5 0.7 2.2 22.5 0.1 (0.5) 11.2 15.1 0.7 2.1 23.0 0.1 (0.5) 10.6 172.7 172.7 267.1 25.0 967 167.7 167.7 264.4 30.0 1,078 273.4 273.4 354.3 40.0 1,305 339.6 339.6 421.7 135.0 1,506 373.6 373.6 476.7 50.0 1,820 435.8 435.8 550.7 50.0 2,197 50.3 32.5 9.0 0.3 5.0 35.9 8.0 51.8 32.8 8.1 0.3 4.9 40.0 7.2 31.8 24.5 6.7 0.5 3.5 23.4 5.9 25.6 20.6 5.8 1.6 2.9 16.7 5.2 23.2 18.2 4.8 0.6 2.5 15.1 4.2 19.9 15.8 4.0 0.6 2.2 12.4 3.4 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12E CY13E
254.3 2,874.6
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bosch No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12