5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

st

21 August 2012

Equities
Pressure Extends on the NSE
The bourse opened the week on a low key as all indices closed south. The NSE was down 6pts to close at 3,808 while the
NASI had a 23% decline to close at 83.48. The FTSE 15 and 25 indices decreased 1.05% and 0.95% respectively. Local investors
continued dominance in the market accounting for a whooping 71% with foreigners shifting tact to a net short position worth
Kes.1.5Mn. Bond Turnover however was up 50.92% to a turnover of 4.5Bn while Equity turnover bore the harsh brunt of the
market down 22% to Kes.336Mn.
Market Capitalisation was stable at Kes.1.1Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

7,577,900

Safaricom Ltd

571,500

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

465,100

C0-operative Bank Ltd

439,800

Barclays Bank Ltd

422,400

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

3.95

6.76

Diamond Trust Bank

99.50

4.74

TPS EA Ltd

39.75

4.61

Total Kenya Ltd

17.95

4.06

Standard Group Ltd

23.75

3.26

Sameer Africa Ltd

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

CFC Stanbic Ltd

43.00

-4.44

NIC Bank Ltd

18.60

-3.73

CFC Insurance Ltd

7.30

-3.31

Trans-Century Ltd

24.00

-3.03

Centum Investments

11.65

-2.92

Index
NASI

Previous

Today

% change

83.67

83.48

-0.23%

NSE 20 Share

3814.10

3808.47

-0.15%

FTSE NSE 15

110.64

109.48

-1.05%

FTSE NSE 25

113.19

112.12

-0.95%

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 18/20 with 18 stocks advancing in price and 20
shedding prices.
Foreign investor turnover slumped to 28.11% in todays trading
compared to 84.61% at the closed Fridays session.
Todays session resulted in a net outflow of Kes.1.5Mn
compared to a net inflow of Kes.7.7Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on
Cooperative Bank Ltd (NSE: COOP) 7Mn and Barclays Bank
Ltd (NSE: BBK) Kes.5.5Mn. The 2 counters accounted for
14.62% and 52.01% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the highest net inflow
of Kes.3.1Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Barclays Bank Ltd
(NSE: BBK) at Kes.4.2Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

17th August 2012

21st August 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1104.29

1101.79

-0.23%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

434.55

336.11

-22.65%

15.39/84.61

71.89/28.11

N/A

14/17

18:20

N/A

2998.20

4525.00

50.92%

450.00

N/A

9.94%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

0.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
0.00%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

17

th

21st August 2012

August 2012

Buys (Kes)
187,680,907.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

179,978,332.50

Sales (Kes)

11,240,297.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

7,702,575.00

12,772,387.50
1,532,090.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Automobiles & Accessories Sector closed at the top spot up 1.95% buoyed by the performance of
Sameer Africa Ltd (NSE: FIRE) which gained 6.76% to close at a VWAP Kes.3.95. The Total Index was
buoyed by increasing prices in 5 segments to 0.14%.
The Investment segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.49% depressed by Trans-Century Ltd (NSE:
TCL) which shed 3.03% to close at a VWAP of Kes.24.00.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Automobiles & Accessories

1.95

Energy & Petroleum

1.02

Commercial & Services

0.87

Construction & Allied

0.77

Manufacturing & Allied

0.20

Agricultural

-0.09

Telecommunication & Technology

-0.52

Insurance

-0.61

Banking

10

-0.70

Investment

-1.49

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

0.14

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
Price at
Target Price
Recommendation

Company

Current
Price

Upside
Potential

Return to
Date

Recommendation

Centum Investments Ltd

14.55

19.55

11.65

40.41%

-19.93%

BUY

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

21.00

-5.53%

32.91%

KenolKobil Limited

9.80

13.10

15.00

-14.50%

53.06%

NIC Bank Limited

26.50

45.50

32.25

29.12%

21.70%

EA Cables Ltd

11.80

14.55

10.25

29.55%

-13.14%

Athi River Mining Ltd

156.00

198.50

199.00

-0.25%

27.56%

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd

88.50

123.40

99.50

19.37%

12.43%

KCB Group Ltd

18.50

27.10

25.50

5.90%

37.84%

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd

7.20

17.25

15.10

12.46%

109.72%

HOLD
SELL
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Kenya Power & Lighting Co.

Nation Media Group Ltd

15.85

22.00

16.00

27.27%

0.95%

153.00

187.70

188.00

-0.16%

22.88%

British American Investments

4.00

6.25

5.65

9.60%

41.25%

Cooperative Bank Limited

11.55

18.50

10.90

41.08%

-5.63%

Kenya Reinsurance Corp.

10.05

15.35

10.30

32.90%

2.49%

Scangroup Ltd

49.25

59.60

57.00

4.36%

15.74%

Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

22.66%

Fixed Income:
2-Yr. T-Bond Sale Period Expires
Money Markets: The CBK remained relevant in the market to mop up Kes.14Bn in excess liquidity
through repos and TADs with the interbank rate marginally ascended to 8.069% from Fridays
close of 7.951%.
Primary Markets: This week the regulator intends to auction the 182-day T-Bill & 91-day T-bill on
22nd August and 23rd August respectively to raise an aggregate amount of Kes.8Bn. The sale
period of the 2-Yr Treasury Fixed Coupon Bond, FXD2/2012/2, closed today with the auction date
set for tomorrow, 22nd August 2012. Successful investors will obtain details of amounts payable
from CBK on the following day, 23rd August.
Secondary Markets: The fixed income market had a turnover increase of 50.92% to Kes.4.5Bn
driven by IFBs that transacted Kes.2.47Bn; 54.5% of total turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

10.27%

18.11%

13.06%

0.10%

0.46%

182 Day

11.37%

18.06%

13.53%

0.14%

0.74%

1 Year

12.85%

17.00%

13.54%

0.18%

1.07%

2 Year

13.83%

14.84%

14.77%

0.26%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.74%

0.62%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.49%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES Steady
Performance: KES shed against majority of the currency pairs losing ground against 4 of the
currency pairs listed on Table 8. The largest loses were: 1.14% against the ZAR & 0.54%
against the INR. The local currency gained against its East Africa counter parts, with the
largest gain at the KES/TZS pair up 0.61% & gaining 0.27% vs. UGX. The shilling is expected to
strengthen against the dollars with inflows from tea export.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

17th August 2012

83.75

21st August 2012

83.85

GBP/KES

132.59

132.33

EUR/KES

104.14

104.53

ZAR/KES

10.07

10.18

KES/UGX

29.57

29.65

KES/TZS

18.66

18.78

1.51

1.52

27thJan 2012

30thJan 2012

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index gained 1.04% as Market Capitalisation

dropped to Kes.894Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd (NSE: DTK) up 4.74%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment CFC
Stanbic Ltd (NSE: CFC) shedding 4.44%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed 0.31% higher over Fridays close as

Market Capitalisation was at stagnant Kes.136Bn.
This sections best performer was TPS EA Ltd (NSE:
TPS) up 4.61%.
Losing by the biggest margin was CFC Insurance Ltd
(NSE: CFCI) down 3.31%.
Small-Cap Index

Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance improved to 0.37% with market

capitalization down to Kes.22.7Bn.
Sameer Africa Ltd (NSE: FIRE) gained 6.76% to lead
the section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin was Williamson Tea (K)
Ltd (NSE: WTK) shedding 1.63%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

571,500

0.00%

0.32

0.22

11.72

5.87%

790,774,356

181,087,327,524

389,700

-1.29%

9.30

8.75

24.62

3.82%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

77,758,317,420

74,900

-2.33%

2.79

1.00

7.53

4.76%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

76,041,504,000

422,400

0.00%

1.49

1.50

9.40

10.71%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

64,969,710,225

48,400

2.87%

14.44

10.00

12.40

5.59%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

57,128,349,467

1,500

-0.50%

19.75

11.00

10.08

5.53%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

38,066,831,910

439,800

-1.36%

1.53

0.40

7.12

3.67%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

75,231,625,359

7,577,900

0.99%

3.72

1.85

6.85

7.25%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,356,318,158

64,000

-0.60%

0.94

0.50

8.88

5.99%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

39,800,000,000

100

-0.50%

30.98

30.50

12.85

7.66%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

29,538,291,536

2,600

0.00%

12.70

8.00

14.80

4.26%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

11,768,421,073

35,100

-4.44%

5.99

0.00

7.18

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,324,132,117

35,900

0.00%

3.58

0.25

3.83

1.82%

1,530,000,000

10,404,000,000

230,800

0.00%

1.26

0.50

5.40

7.35%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,222,192,246

16,400

4.74%

13.58

1.70

7.33

1.71%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,128,384,000

119,300

0.63%

2.16

0.45

7.41

2.81%

99,055,000

19,711,945,000

5,600

0.51%

11.63

2.00

17.11

1.01%

358,997,784

11,577,678,534

24,600

-3.73%

6.72

0.50

4.80

1.55%

894,115,028,569

10,060,500

-0.28%

7.94

4.40

9.96

4.52%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,047,633,342

268,000

-2.92%

1.79

0.00

6.51

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

22,076,418,000

215,000

0.00%

2.21

1.00

6.79

6.67%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,232,980,296

15,000

1.79%

2.55

0.70

22.35

1.23%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,208,000,000

7,577,900

2.48%

3.19

0.40

5.83

2.15%

90,000,000

5,040,000,000

0.00%

6.24

0.50

8.97

0.89%

148,210,640

5,891,372,940

600

4.61%

4.51

1.30

8.81

3.27%

54,450,000

9,256,500,000

100

1.80%

33.00

4.50

5.15

2.65%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,180,000,000

112,600

-0.96%

3.19

0.35

3.23

3.40%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,618,762,500

44,700

-2.85%

2.70

1.20

5.69

7.82%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

3,141,765,273

6,600

4.06%

3.05

0.00

5.89

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,111,612,065

500

0.83%

8.89

5.00

13.61

4.13%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,432,000,000

138,500

0.00%

2.31

1.00

15.48

2.80%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,594,531,250

5,700

0.49%

1.15

1.00

8.91

9.76%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

988,400,406

13,000

-1.04%

0.53

0.00

8.96

0.00%

74,059,026

1,758,901,868

400

3.26%

2.96

0.00

8.02

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,147,500,000

137,400

0.00%

-1.09

0.15

-5.18

2.65%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,007,912,004

16,200

-0.98%

1.47

0.00

10.27

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,574,806,816

100

-3.03%

1.23

0.25

19.51

1.04%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,761,473,657

15,300

-3.31%

1.84

0.00

3.97

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,588,429,925

4,000

1.34%

1.72

1.00

6.60

8.81%

19,525,446

2,167,324,506

6,700

0.00%

7.71

6.80

14.40

6.13%

135,692,902,287

8,578,300

0.31%

4.13

1.14

6.37

2.88%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,099,452,452

400

6.76%

0.35

0.20

11.29

5.06%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

2,110,273,120

300

-1.63%

93.74

57.50

2.57

23.86%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,479,799,925

300

0.67%

28.06

3.75

2.69

4.97%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

1,017,000,000

3,300

-0.29%

7.79

1.10

2.18

6.49%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

534,710,784

1,900

1.05%

7.78

0.55

3.08

2.29%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

969,073,574

6,500

0.00%

3.57

0.75

3.59

5.86%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

824,513,250

8,800

0.00%

5.44

1.25

6.39

3.60%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

177,300

2.78%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

884,317,500

500

0.00%

1.36

1.25

40.44

2.27%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

268,000

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,050,075,000
528,120,000
9,154,384,848

500
200
465,100

-0.84%
-0.74%
-1.18%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.64
6.77
15.56

8.43%
5.56%
2.14%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

127,453,644

0.00%

-6.47

-0.56

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

134,000,000

200

0.00%

0.38

0.10

8.82

2.99%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
22,714,206,801

0
933,300

0.00%
0.37%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.45

0.00%
4.25%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334