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Wes Anderson, OnMessage Inc. August 14, 2012 Key Findings in Arizonas 2nd Congressional District

The following survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. in Arizonas 2nd Congressional District. Telephone interviews were conducted August 7-8, 2012. This survey consists of 400 likely general election voters and was stratified by county to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%.

KEY FINDINGS Ballot: Barber 50% - McSally 45% with 5% undecided. The key to this race is found in the hard re-elect question for Barber. General Election voters are currently undecided on whether to send him back to Congress - 40% say he deserves another term, while 41% say give someone else a chance. Ticketsplitters are truly split on the ballot 38% say another term for Barber, while a full 36% say give someone else a chance.

ANALYSIS This race promises to be a very close contest all the way to the end. Barber and his Democratic allies spent nearly $2 million in advertising to elect him in the recent special election. However, it appears his image has not grown in favor with general election voters. In fact, this survey shows, Barber has had little, if any, movement in improving his position for reelection. Martha McSally who spent a fraction of what Barber spent on advertising, months prior, is within striking distance. McSally has gained considerable support among voters since her Primary run in April Furthermore, Barber won against a polarizing opponent in an election in the shadow of Gabriel Giffords. This survey suggests Barber will be judged on his own voting record. Contentment is not a word anyone could rightly associate with the voters of Arizonas 2 nd Congressional District. The last election may have been a legacy election but this one is about change in direction.

OTHER FINDINGS Voters are pessimistic about the direction of the country (54% wrong track). That does not bode well for incumbent Congressman Barber. When given the opportunity, 48% of the electorate said they would vote for a Republican candidate who would be a check and balance to Obama and the Democrats in Congress. Sixty percent (60%) of the voters believe that the Presidents policies have had little or no impact on the economy or have made the economy worse. As an incumbent Democrat Congressman, Barber will share at least some of the blame with the President for the current state of our economy.

The economy continues to dominate in every district that we are conducting surveys this year and the 2nd is no different. Voters of the 2 nd district cited the economy as most important by a wide margin (62%). Specifically, concerns about unemployment and jobs are 22%.

OnMessage Inc. is a national Republican polling and media firm, conducting polls for Republican candidates at both the federal and state level. In over 20 years of polling, OMI pollster Wes Anderson has conducted surveys and focus groups in every region of the country.