5

Daily Market Note

23 August 2012
rd

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

Equities Heavy Pressure but Resilient NSE The NSE 20 share index continued battling with distribution activities adopted by investors as it lost 1.75 points to close at 3817. The FTSE 15 and 25 indices marginally slipped 0.04% and 0.03% to 110.67 and 113.19 points. The NASI was the outperformer in the day up 0.31 points to 84.01. Local investors continued their dominance in the market accounting60% of the total turnover while foreign investors remained long on most counters resulting in a net inflow of Kes.10Mn. Equity turnover more than doubled in the day buoyed by the uptake by some investors. Market Capitalisation shifted marginally up but more importantly north of its support level of Kes.1.1Tn. "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance Table 2: NSE Indices

Top Traders Equity Equity Bank Ltd Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Safaricom Ltd Centum Investments Ltd Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Ltd Volume 3,991,200 2,655,600 2,493,000 1,989,000 1,604,500

Market Indices Summary

Index NASI NSE 20 Share FTSE NSE 15 FTSE NSE 25 Source: NSE

Previous 83.70 3819.45 110.71 113.22

Today 84.01 3817.70 110.67 113.19

% change 0.37% -0.05% -0.04% -0.03%

Gaining Stocks Equity Pan Africa Insurance Athi River Mining Nation Media Group Ltd Eveready EA Ltd Kenya Power & Lighting Price (KES) 36.25 204.00 199.00 1.95 16.45 % Change 7.41 4.08 3.11 2.63 2.49

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading session stood at 16/20 with 16 stocks advancing in price and 20 shedding prices. Foreign investor turnover slipped to 39.43% in todays trading compared to 43.13% at the closed yesterdays session. Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.10.3Mn compared to a net inflow of Kes.10.6Mn at the close of the previous trading session. The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on East Africa Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) Kes.37Mn and Athi River Mining Ltd (NSE: ARM) Kes.34Mn. The 2 counters accounted for 21.85% and 55.40% of the total NSE and total foreign activity respectively. Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the highest net inflow of Kes.8.3Mn. The highest net outflow was recorded on Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Ltd (NSE: KPLC) at Kes.11.6Mn.

Losing Stocks Equity Kenya Airways Ltd Olympia Capital Holdings Rea Vipingo Plantations Total Kenya Ltd Kapchorua Tea Kenya Ltd Price (KES) 12.80 3.20 16.25 17.25 130.00 % Change -5.88 -4.48 -4.13 -3.90 -3.70

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Table 3: NSE Summary

22nd August 2012 Market Cap. (Kes.Bn) Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) Advance:Decline Ratio Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn) 1104.71 162.03 56.87/43.13 15:19 3495.35

23rd August 2012 1108.74 327.59 60.57/39.43 16:20 5999.40 50.00 0.83%

% Change 0.36% 102.18% N/A N/A 71.64% N/A N/A

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O: 150.00 (Mn) Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of 4.29% Total Bond T/O) Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover 22 August 2012 Buys (Kes) 40,236,535.00 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position Sales (Kes) 29,655,370.00 10,581,165.00
nd

23rd August 2012 Buys (Kes) 69,737,362.50 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position Sales (Kes) 59,432,962.50 10,304,400.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Insurance sector recouped yesterdays losses to close at the top spot marginally up 0.76% buoyed by the performance of Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd (NSE: PAFR) which gained 7.41% to close at a VWAP Kes.36.25. An even performance ensured the Total Index was flat at 0.22% decline. The Investment segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.38% dragged down by Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCH) which shed 4.48% to close at a VWAP of Kes.3.20.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector Insurance Construction & Allied Banking Commercial & Services Telecommunication & Technology Manufacturing & Allied Energy & Petroleum Automobiles & Accessories Agricultural Investment Total Index Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

Constituents 6 5 10 9 2 9 4 4 7 4 60

Price Performance (% Change) 0.76 0.61 0.22 0.15 0.12 -0.12 -0.52 -0.65 -1.37 -1.38 -0.22

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Company Centum Investments Ltd Equity Bank Limited KenolKobil Limited NIC Bank Limited EA Cables Ltd Athi River Mining Ltd Diamond Trust Bank Ltd KCB Group Ltd Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Nation Media Group Ltd British American Investments Cooperative Bank Limited Kenya Reinsurance Corp. Scangroup Ltd Portfolio Return Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Price at Recommendation 14.55 15.80 9.80 26.50 11.80 156.00 88.50 18.50 7.20 15.85 153.00 4.00 11.55 10.05 49.25

Target Price Current Price 19.55 19.90 16.90 45.50 14.55 198.50 123.40 27.10 17.25 22.00 195.00 6.25 18.50 15.35 59.60 11.60 21.25 14.75 31.75 10.20 204.00 99.50 25.50 15.30 16.45 199.00 5.65 10.95 10.40 56.50

Upside Potential 40.66% -6.78% 12.72% 30.22% 29.90% -2.77% 19.37% 5.90% 11.30% 25.23% -2.05% 9.60% 40.81% 32.25% 5.20%

Return to Date -20.27% 34.49% 50.51% 19.81% -13.56% 30.77% 12.43% 37.84% 112.50% 3.79% 30.07% 41.25% -5.19% 3.48% 14.72% 23.51%

Recommendation

BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD

Fixed Income: 91-Day T-Bill closes Lower Money Markets: The CBK remained relevant in the market to mop up Kes.8Bn in excess liquidity through repos and TADs with the interbank rate edging to 8.365% from yesterdays close of 8.177%. Primary Markets: Further pressure was noted on the primary auction yields with the 91-Day T-Bill dropped 168.4 bps to 8.583%. The offer was Kes.4Bn but attracted bids worth Kes.9.68Bn representing a bid to cover ratio of 2.42. The regulator accepted bids worth Kes.4.54Bn. Secondary Markets: Improved activity in the fixed income market as turnover bounced back up 72% to Kes.6Bn driven by IFB Bonds that transacted Kes.3.1Bn; 52% of total turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor 91 Day 182 Day 1 Year 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

Kenya 8.58% 10.03% 12.85% 11.11% 11.86% 12.71%

Uganda 13.10% 18.06% 17.00% 14.84% 15.39% 15.28%

Tanzania 13.06% 13.53% 13.54% 13.81% 14.74% 14.99%

U.S 0.11% 0.13% 0.19% 0.26% 0.71% 1.16%

LIBOR (USD) 0.43% 0.72% 1.04% ----

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

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Currency: CBK Props Up KES Performance: The KES saw support from foreign inflows to the bond market as well as improved regulator participation in the market. The national currency maintained its previous performances holding steady against majority of the currency pairs in Table 8. The shilling slipped 0.32% in the EURKES as investors reacted to a hint of a third round of quantitative easing in the US. A further marginal slip of 0.04% in the GBPKES pair was noted but KES edged up 0.06% in the USDKES pair. Against its African counter the shilling held steady shifting +0.92% in the KESUGX pair and +0.41% in the KESTZS pair but shedding 0.45% vs. ZAR. This performance will carry on in tomorrows session as well.
Table 8: Currency Rate

Currency Pair USD/KES GBP/KES EUR/KES ZAR/KES KES/UGX KES/TZS INR/KES Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

22nd August 2012 84.05 132.48 104.46 10.08 29.78 18.70 1.52 27thJan 2012

23rd August 2012 84.00 132.53 104.79 10.12 30.05 18.78 1.52 30thJan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

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Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index marginally gained 0.38% as Market Capitalisation was up to Kes.903Bn. The best performing counter in this segment was Athi River Mining Ltd (NSE: ARM) up 4.08%. Losing by the biggest margin in this segment Kenya Airways Ltd (NSE: KQ) shedding 5.88%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed marginally higher at 0.01% over yesterdays close as Market Capitalisation was stagnant at Kes.134Bn. This sections best performer was Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd (NSE: PAFR) up 7.41%. Losing by the biggest margin was Total Kenya Ltd (NSE: TOTL) down 3.90%.
Small-Cap Index Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance shed 0.87% capitalization down to Kes.22.5Bn.

with

market

Eveready EA Ltd (NSE: EVRD) gained 2.63% to lead the section as the best performer. Losing by the biggest margin was Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCH) shedding 4.48%.

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Contacts Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

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